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Crude oil trading alert: Geopolitical disturbances are unlikely to change the weak trend; US crude oil is fluctuating at low levels around $56.

Amid sluggish global energy demand growth, US crude oil prices remain near their lows for the year. While geopolitical developments and the US's tough stance on energy have provided some psychological support for oil prices, market expectations of potential supply repatriation have significantly limited the upside potential. From a technical perspective, the daily chart for US crude oil remains bearish, and the current rise appears more like a corrective move within a downtrend.

2025-12-19 09:30:07

Crude oil trading alert: Increased US pressure on energy prices triggered a short-term rebound, but oil prices remain under pressure due to oversupply.

International oil prices rebounded technically after falling to a four-and-a-half-year low, with the US signaling a tougher stance on Russia and Venezuela, improving market sentiment in the short term. However, given the continued ample global oil supply and limited demand growth, geopolitical risks remain insufficient to support oil prices, and the market remains cautious about the medium-term outlook.

2025-12-18 09:15:06

Crude oil trading alert: Weakening geopolitical premiums coupled with increasing inventory pressure are accelerating the decline in oil prices.

Amidst escalating ceasefire expectations, the support from geopolitical risks for oil prices has clearly receded, with funding and options structures shifting across the board towards a bearish outlook. Although US crude oil inventories have declined temporarily, the accumulation of refined product inventories and weakening crack spreads highlight the supply-demand imbalance. The market generally believes that if the peace process makes substantial progress, the global crude oil oversupply situation may further intensify, and oil prices will continue to face downward pressure in the medium term.

2025-12-17 09:11:44

The non-farm payroll report revealed two opposing sentiments, with gold prices surging and then retreating as it battled for the 4300 level. When will the counterattack begin?

On Tuesday (December 16) at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the delayed October and November non-farm payroll reports, as well as October retail sales data. Due to the previous government shutdown, the simultaneous release of these two months' worth of employment and consumption data was seen as an attempt by the market to find clear clues about the momentum of the U.S. economy and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy.

2025-12-16 21:50:35

3 days until the Bank of Japan's decision: Japanese government bond yields hit 1.95%, when will the window for a breakout in USD/JPY open?

On Tuesday (December 16th) Beijing time, global currency and bond markets focused on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision this Friday. As of midday, the USD/JPY exchange rate was 154.858, down 0.22% on the day; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield was 1.951%, down slightly by 0.15% on the day. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the decision, with both the Japanese government bond yield and the USD/JPY exchange rate hovering around key technical levels, awaiting clear guidance from policy signals.

2025-12-16 17:38:17

A comprehensive preview of the non-farm payrolls report in eight charts; the first non-farm payrolls report after the White House shutdown is likely to be poor.

The first non-farm payroll report since the White House shutdown will be released tonight. The highly anticipated US October-November non-farm payroll report will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday (December 16, 2025). This article features eight original charts providing a comprehensive preview of the non-farm payrolls report. The first non-farm payrolls report since the White House shutdown is likely to be poor. Based on forecasts from over 67 internationally renowned investment banks and financial experts, the expected change in non-farm payrolls is: an increase of 50,000.

2025-12-16 12:03:37

Crude oil trading alert: Oversupply expectations and easing geopolitical risks pressured oil prices lower at an accelerated pace.

The international energy market has recently experienced increased volatility, with crude oil futures continuing to face pressure due to both expectations of inventory accumulation and a decline in geopolitical risk premiums. OPEC maintained its demand assessment but raised its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth; while the IEA lowered its assessment of the surplus, it still warned that the loose supply situation remains unchanged.

2025-12-16 09:05:39

Gold Trading Alert: A surprising breakthrough in the Ukraine peace talks! Gold prices abruptly halt at their highs as the "Non-Farm Payrolls" report and other "terrifying data" are on the horizon.

Spot gold briefly approached the psychological high of $4,350 due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate. However, as safe-haven demand cooled rapidly, gold prices quickly gave back most of their gains. The main driver of this shift was progress made in important talks between US officials and Ukrainian President Zelensky regarding ending the war, which significantly reduced market demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, global traders are turning their attention to the upcoming key US employment data, which will further reveal the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

2025-12-16 07:27:18

Crude oil trading alert: Expectations of ample supply are suppressing the central oil price; US crude oil is seeking a new equilibrium amid fluctuating weakness.

Crude oil prices closed lower for the week, with expectations of a global supply glut and a decline in geopolitical risk premiums being the dominant factors. While a short-term drop in US inventories provided some support, it is unlikely to change the medium-term supply-demand imbalance. From a daily technical perspective, US crude oil remains in a weak, oscillating pattern, with rebounds reflecting more of a technical correction than a trend reversal.

2025-12-15 10:31:27

Oil prices experienced a "geopolitical scare" in a single day, with a 4% weekly drop revealing the main battleground for short sellers.

During the trading week from December 8th to 12th, 2025, the international crude oil market was once again dominated by pessimistic expectations of oversupply. Despite frequent geopolitical events, these failed to reverse the downward trend in oil prices. Both major benchmark oil prices fluctuated downwards throughout the week, recording significant declines of over 4%, continuing the recent weak trend. Market focus quickly shifted from geopolitical risks back to fundamentals, with the reality of ample global oil supply becoming the core force suppressing prices.

2025-12-13 13:15:01

Crude oil trading alert: Continued ample global supply is suppressing oil prices; be wary of a potential break below support levels.

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions following the US seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela, WTI crude oil fell to a seven-week low, indicating that market concerns about ample supply far outweigh short-term risks. The International Energy Agency noted that while global inventory growth is slowing, production will continue to exceed demand for the next two years, reflecting an unchanged "structural surplus." Experts believe that as long as demand cannot keep pace with supply growth, any boost to oil prices from geopolitical events will be short-lived.

2025-12-12 09:22:56

Gold Trading Alert: Fed Rate Cut Helps Gold Prices Reach One-Month High, Silver Hits All-Time High; Is the Next Bull Market Poised to Start?

On Thursday (December 11), gold prices rebounded strongly following the Federal Reserve's third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut. Spot gold rose 1.2%, reaching a more than one-month high of $4,285.75 per ounce, while silver hit a record high of $64.31 per ounce. The gold market is at a crucial juncture; a break above the $4,300 level could signal the start of a new bull market.

2025-12-12 07:48:52

Crude oil trading reminder: With supply growth exceeding demand, oil prices remain range-bound, awaiting a directional move.

WTI and Brent crude oil prices have risen slightly recently, but the upward momentum is clearly insufficient. Latest data shows that US commercial inventories fell less than expected, while global supply growth continues to outpace demand, keeping oil prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that global inventories may continue to accumulate at a rate of 2 million barrels per day in 2026, fueling market concerns about oversupply pressures. Analysts generally believe that record-high supply is weakening the boost from geopolitical factors, and oil prices will likely face continued upward resistance in the short term.

2025-12-11 09:07:20

Gold Trading Alert: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, causing a sharp decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Gold prices rebounded strongly, and silver prices hit a new all-time high.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% as expected, but signaled a "pause in dovish sentiment" due to serious internal divisions (a 10-3 vote and only one rate cut reserved for 2026). Following the decision, the dollar index plummeted 0.6%, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 0.88%, spot gold staged a dramatic rebound, closing up 0.5% at $4228.47 per ounce, and silver surged to $61.85 per ounce, a record high, with a year-to-date increase of 113%. Increased geopolitical risks and surging industrial demand are driving a new round of super bull market for precious metals, with silver leading the charge.

2025-12-11 07:55:58

Crude oil trading alert: A slight rebound in the US dollar is putting pressure on oil prices. In the short term, continue to focus on inventory data and await a directional move.

WTI crude oil prices have recently been under pressure, primarily due to stronger-than-expected US employment data leading to a stronger dollar and the resumption of supply from major Iraqi oil fields. However, the latest inventory data shows a significant decline in US crude oil inventories, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term. The overall market is focusing on the balance between inventory changes and supply recovery, while also assessing whether subsequent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data will bring any unexpected changes.

2025-12-10 10:00:19

Dangerous Consensus: Everyone Expects Volatility? Beware of the Fed Turning "Expectation Management" into a "Liquidity Trap"

On Tuesday (December 9), financial markets were sensitive ahead of the Federal Reserve's year-end policy meeting. Policy disagreements within the Fed have become key to bond market pricing. While half of the committee members may favor holding rates steady, the market expects the chairman to push for a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.5%-3.75% and to set a higher threshold for further easing in the statement.

2025-12-09 20:18:05

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4349.38	16.77 (0.39%)
XAG	67.202	1.740 (2.66%)
CONC	56.48	0.48 (0.86%)
OILC	60.26	0.54 (0.91%)
USD	98.656	0.216 (0.22%)
EURUSD	1.1715	-0.0007 (-0.06%)
GBPUSD	1.3371	-0.0008 (-0.06%)
USDCNH	7.0344	0.0032 (0.05%)

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