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2025-10-29 Wednesday

2025-11-04

22:30:07

U.S. EIA weekly crude oil production for the week ending October 24

Previous : 60 Forecast : -

Published Value -51.10

22:30:07

The change in U.S. EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -214.70 Forecast : -190.30

Published Value -594.10

22:30:07

U.S. EIA Weekly crude oil imports for the week ending October 24

Previous : 65.60 Forecast : -

Published Value -102.50

22:30:07

EIA Oklahoma - Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : -77 Forecast : -

Published Value 133.40

22:30:05

U.S. EIA Weekly new formula gasoline inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -0.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10

22:30:04

The change in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -96.10 Forecast : -21.10

Published Value -685.80

22:30:04

Changes in U.S. EIA distillate inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -147.90 Forecast : -173.50

Published Value -336.20

22:30:02

Changes in equipment utilization rates of U.S. EIA refineries for the week ending October 24

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -2%

22:25:02

Barclays Bank reportedly plans its first-ever Panda bond issuance in China, aiming to raise up to 4 billion yuan (approximately US$560 million). This marks another major global bank's foray into the world's second-largest debt market. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the transaction will be offered in 3-year and 5-year tranches, with pricing expected next Monday. The sources added that the funds raised will likely be remitted out of China to support the London-based bank's financing needs and its RMB-related business, such as meeting increasing customer demand for RMB-denominated assets and providing liquidity to offshore capital markets.

22:24:34

In early trading on the US stock market, major sector ETFs showed mixed results, with the semiconductor ETF rising nearly 2%, the global technology stock index ETF rising more than 1%, the consumer staples ETF falling more than 1%, and the financial sector ETF falling more than 1%.

22:21:26

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1599.32/ounce, up 1.79% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1607.7/ounce, up 1.45% on the day.

22:20:59

According to reports, the U.S. Treasury Department has allowed Germany to continue doing business with Rosneft's subsidiaries until April 29, 2026.

22:19:00

The UK is selling spot carbon allowances at £55.50 per tonne.

22:18:37

Market news: Saudi Crown Prince Salman met with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharah at the FII conference in Riyadh.

22:12:51

[Bank of Canada Hints at End of Rate-Cutting Cycle; Money Markets Price No Rate Cuts Before March] The Bank of Canada cut its main overnight rate to 2.25% on Wednesday, the lowest level since July 2022, in line with market expectations, and hinted that this could mark the end of its rate-cutting cycle unless the inflation and economic outlook changes. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated that this easing policy aims to help the economy cope with the disruption caused by US tariffs while keeping inflation near the 2% target. At the same time, the Bank of Canada lowered its economic growth forecasts for this year and next year to 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively, from 1.8%, citing the impact of US trade policy. The Bank of Canada forecasts inflation of 2% in 2025 and approximately 2.1% in 2026. Macklem stated that due to the continued unpredictability of US trade policy, the range of possible outcomes remains wider than usual. Following the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and the money market priced in no rate cuts before March next year.

22:12:17

US pending home sales were flat in September compared to the previous month; the estimate was 1.2%.

22:12:02

Swissquote Bank on Nvidia's Record Market Value: Nvidia Doesn't Need Trump for Revenue, Just That He Doesn't Interfere] Swissquote Bank senior market analyst Ipek Ozcadeskaia stated that Nvidia has enormous potential for more partnerships, such as the anticipated collaboration with Nokia. The question isn't whether Nvidia will sign new partnerships, but rather who their next partner will be. They are expanding overseas, and we believe this international footprint will help alleviate market concerns about the cyclical nature of their business. Nvidia doesn't need Trump's support like Intel does. What Nvidia is doing is bringing itself closer to the White House to secure potentially costly deals—such as investing in Intel or manufacturing chips in Arizona. These are operating costs associated with dealing with Washington. But beyond that, Nvidia doesn't need Trump for revenue. It just needs him to stop interfering.

22:10:51

[Trump and Carney Meet for First Time Since Trade Talks Suspended] Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that he and US President Donald Trump had a "very good" conversation in South Korea on the 29th local time. This was the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since Trump suspended trade negotiations with Canada on the 23rd. Trump posted on social media, "We didn't come to South Korea to see Canada." (CCTV News)

22:05:06

The night of the resolution was full of tricks: would it fall first and then rise, or continue to rise? The US dollar only had 30 seconds to react. Details>

22:01:58

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales contracts in the United States for September

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.50%

22:01:15

The Bank of Canada preemptively cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the USD/CAD pair to a critical juncture for bulls and bears! Details>

22:00:03

The seasonally adjusted existing home contract sales index for the United States in September

Previous : 74.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 74.80

22:00:02

The seasonally adjusted existing home sales index for the United States in September rose monthly

Previous : 4% Forecast : 1%

金银石油

美元

Published Value 0%

21:59:23

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1599.98/ounce, up 1.84% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1606.6/ounce, up 1.38% on the day.

21:51:33

[Bank of Canada Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points to 2.25%! A Difficult Choice Amid Weak Economy and Inflation Impasse] ⑴ The Bank of Canada lowered its overnight rate target by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the bank rate adjusted accordingly to 2.5%. ⑵ This rate cut is based on the weak economic situation, while inflation is expected to remain near the 2% target. ⑶ The Bank believes the current policy rate level is generally appropriate, provided that inflation and economic trends are in line with expectations. ⑷ The Canadian labor market remains weak, and excess capacity in the economy is expected to be gradually absorbed. ⑸ Core inflation is stubbornly holding around 3%, but broader indicators suggest underlying inflation is around 2.5%. ⑹ The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the coming months, with CPI inflation expected to remain around 2% during the forecast period. ⑺ The Bank is prepared to take appropriate action should the economic outlook change and will continue to closely monitor data performance. ⑻ The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition, and structural damage caused by trade conflicts limits the scope for monetary policy stimulus.

21:49:49

Judicial Intervention During Government Shutdown: How Layoff Bans Provide a Buffer for the Dollar Details>

21:48:29

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Inflationary pressures are expected to ease in the coming months.

21:48:25

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Its expanded indicator system suggests that underlying inflation remains around 2.5%.

21:48:12

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: The preferred core inflation gauge has remained stable at around 3%.

21:48:04

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Canada's labor market remains weak; excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and gradually be resolved.

21:48:00

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: We are prepared to respond if circumstances change.

21:47:55

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: The rate cut was due to weak economic conditions and expectations that inflation will remain near the 2% target.

21:47:50

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Assuming inflation and the economy develop broadly as projected, the current policy rate is at a broadly appropriate level.

21:47:07

Bank of Canada Governor: The range of possible outcomes is wider than ever before; we need to remain humble in our forecasts.

21:47:01

Bank of Canada Governor: There remains considerable uncertainty regarding US tariffs and their impact.

21:46:55

Bank of Canada Governor: We expect the opposing forces on inflation to roughly offset each other, keeping overall inflation around 2%.

21:46:48

The Bank of Canada Governor stated that due to weak demand and lost capacity, the bank expects GDP to be approximately 1.5% lower by the end of 2026 than predicted in January.

21:46:44

Bank of Canada Governor: Given the damage tariffs have caused to the Canadian economic outlook, monetary policy has limited ability to boost demand while maintaining low inflation.

21:46:39

Bank of Canada Governor: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates again to support the economy by adjusting its trade policy with the United States.

21:45:54

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points, causing the US dollar to fall 11 points against the Canadian dollar in the short term.

21:45:21

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just broken through the 48,000.00 mark, currently trading at 48,001.99, up 0.62% on the day.

21:45:19

[US Government Shutdown Sees a Turning Point! Temporary Funding Bill May Break Through Early Next Week] ⑴ A major turnaround has emerged after nearly a month of government shutdown, with bipartisan negotiations regaining urgency. ⑵ Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his allies are actively pushing for progress on a temporary funding bill. ⑶ House Speaker Mike Johnson and other Republican leaders are gaining confidence, anticipating compromises from centrist Democrats. ⑷ Dozens of temporary funding proposals are under discussion, including extending government funding to January 21 or later into March. ⑸ The looming deadline and external pressure are accelerating negotiations that have been stalled for weeks. ⑹ Republican leaders have noted a growing willingness among centrist Democrats to make concessions to mitigate the impact of the shutdown. ⑺ If a consensus is reached, some US government agencies may receive temporary operating funds early next week.

21:45:02

The overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada in October

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : 2.25%

Neutral

Published Value 2.25%

21:43:41

[Oracle CDS Surges to Two-Year High as Massive AI Spending Sparks Default Concerns] ⑴ Oracle's credit default swaps (CDS) have surged, reflecting growing market concerns about its debt default risk. ⑵ The cost of debt default insurance over the next five years is approaching its highest level since October 2023, reaching a near two-year high. ⑶ The surge in CDS is mainly driven by market concerns about the company's massive AI spending, with investors worried about funding pressures. ⑷ Massive AI investments may lead to increased financial leverage, resulting in a widening credit risk premium. ⑸ The trend in default insurance costs indicates a more cautious assessment of Oracle's financial health by the bond market. ⑹ Despite the promising prospects in the AI field, high capital expenditures are testing the company's cash flow management capabilities. ⑺ A divergence between credit market signals and stock price performance indicates a disagreement among equity and bond investors regarding risk assessment. ⑻ As a leading risk indicator, a sharp rise in CDS often foreshadows upward pressure on the company's financing costs.

21:42:31

The White House: Korean Air will spend an additional $13.7 billion to purchase General Electric aerospace engines.

21:40:52

[US $69 Billion Treasury Auction Preview: Key Analysis of 4-Month Note Pricing] ⑴ The US Treasury will issue $69 billion in 4-month Treasury notes, maturing on March 3, with net financing of $4 billion. ⑵ The winning bid rate for notes maturing on February 24, issued last week, was 3.735%, with a current bid yield of 3.7125%. ⑶ Newly issued 4-month notes are currently trading at a bid price of 3.70%, with a rollover value of -0.8 basis points. ⑷ The 3-month/6-month note spread is trading at -6.3 basis points, with a weekly value of -0.48 basis points. ⑸ The March 2026 SOFR futures contract is trading at a 3.43% interest rate, up 7 basis points from last week's auction. ⑹ The 2-month/4-month/6-month butterfly spread is -3.5 basis points, 8 basis points cheaper than last week's auction. (7) The average bid-to-cover ratio for the past six 4-month notes was 3.18, with indirect bids accounting for 64.91%. (8) Dealer bids accounted for 29.64%, while direct bids accounted for 5.45%, indicating that institutional demand dominated.

21:40:01

Caterpillar's earnings report sends its stock surging 9.5% to a new high for the year. (1) Caterpillar's stock price jumped 9.5% to $574.6 in early trading, marking a significant single-day gain. (2) Third-quarter earnings per share reached $4.95, far exceeding the market expectation of $4.52, a nearly 10% over-expectation. (3) Quarterly revenue reached $17.64 billion, exceeding the expected $16.77 billion by $870 million, demonstrating strong performance. (4) A surge in investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure was a major driver, boosting demand for energy and mining equipment. (5) US government policy support for energy projects provided additional support for equipment sales, with the industry continuing to rise. (6) Including the intraday gain, the stock has risen 57.9% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the market benchmark index. (7) The better-than-expected earnings were mainly driven by both improved profit margins and increased sales revenue. (8) Strong demand for heavy machinery reflects the upward phase of the global infrastructure investment cycle.

21:37:13

[Brazilian Agricultural Outlook: Soybean Expansion, Corn Contraction! New Season Production Pattern Shifts] ⑴ Brazil's soybean planting area for 2025/26 is projected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous cycle. ⑵ Soybean production is projected to increase to 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous cycle, maintaining an upward trend. ⑶ Soybean crushing volume is projected to reach a record 60 million tons, continuing the growth from 58 million tons in 2024/25. ⑷ Soybean exports are projected to remain at 111 million tons, unchanged from the previous cycle, maintaining Brazil's position as a major global supplier. ⑸ Corn planting area is projected to reach 22.2 million hectares, a 2.2% increase from the previous cycle, with a steady pace of expansion. ⑹ Corn production is projected to decrease to 137 million tons, a 3.5% decrease from the previous cycle, showing a downward trend. ⑺ The soybean industry chain continues to expand, with increased crushing demand highlighting improved processing capacity. ⑻ The contrast between declining corn production and increased acreage reflects challenges to yield potential.

21:34:19

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,010.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,009.99/ounce, up 1.45% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,024.80/ounce, up 1.05% on the day.

21:33:49

The Nasdaq Composite Index has just broken through the 24,000.00 mark, currently trading at 24,000.69, up 0.73% on the day.

21:32:19

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just broken through the 47,900.00 mark, currently trading at 47,910.66, up 0.43% on the day.

21:31:43

Nvidia becomes the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion.

21:31:27

The Russian Ministry of Finance sold 24.722 billion Russian rubles worth of OFZ bonds at the closing price of 86.3600%, which will mature in May 2039.

21:27:57

[Brazil's LNG Import Capacity Doubles, Energy Strategy Transformation Accelerates] ⑴ Brazil's LNG regasification infrastructure has been expanding continuously since 2020, resulting in a doubling of import capacity. ⑵ Regasification capacity will increase from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2020 to 5.1 billion cubic feet per day in August 2025. ⑶ Three new terminals added in 2024 will bring 1.74 billion cubic feet per day of capacity, including key facilities such as the Bacarena FSRU. ⑷ The Suapé FSRU terminal is under construction and is expected to be operational in early 2026, with a capacity of 700 million cubic feet per day. ⑸ The core of the expansion strategy is integrated LNG power generation, with each imported facility paired with a large-scale natural gas power plant. ⑹ Federal law requires an additional 8 gigawatts of regionalized natural gas power generation capacity and aims to break the monopoly of Petrobras. ⑺ The United States supplies 72% of Brazil's LNG imports, but the country is shifting towards long-term contracts in pursuit of price stability. (8) Coastal LNG terminals supply gas to areas lacking pipelines and provide flexible backup for grids that rely on renewable energy.

21:26:54

Brazil's soybean planting area for 2025/26 is projected to reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year.

21:26:42

[BlackRock and Saudi PIF Join Forces to Launch a Major Initiative, Ushering in a Major Transformation for the Middle East Mutual Fund Market] ⑴ BlackRock and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) have jointly launched a new mutual fund covering multiple asset classes. ⑵ The fund focuses on Saudi equities and fixed-income assets in the Middle East and North Africa, positioning itself with a regional focus. ⑶ Global and local investors can subscribe to the product through BlackRock's Riyadh investment management platform. ⑷ This collaboration aims to deepen the development of Saudi capital markets and support Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 strategic goals. ⑸ The portfolio is directly managed by fund managers based in Riyadh, highlighting a localized operational strategy. ⑹ BlackRock's staff in Saudi Arabia has nearly tripled since April 2024. ⑺ The company is expanding its global graduate analyst program to Riyadh, with the third cohort graduating in 2026. ⑻ The Middle East investment product line continues to expand, covering public markets and private assets, including infrastructure.

21:25:46

[Pound Sterling Under Pressure! Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Battle for 1.30 Level] ⑴ Negative factors for the pound continue to accumulate, with the exchange rate against the dollar gradually approaching its mid-year low and hitting a new annual low against the euro. ⑵ Continued concerns about the UK budget and weak inflation data triggering dovish repricing are dragging down the pound's performance. ⑶ Although a rate cut by the Bank of England before its autumn statement remains low, the possibility of a rate cut at the November meeting cannot be completely ruled out. ⑷ Recent significant disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee have laid the groundwork for a surprise rate cut decision. ⑸ Institutions such as Goldman Sachs have already predicted a rate cut in November, and the market is preparing for a possible unexpected decision next week. ⑹ The market is currently pricing in a 33% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 15% before the inflation data release. ⑺ If the Bank of England does decide to cut rates in November, the pound could fall sharply towards the psychological level of 1.3000 against the dollar. ⑻ Technical and fundamental factors are converging in a bearish trend, significantly increasing the risk of the exchange rate testing key support levels.

21:24:53

The UK government stated that aid funds for Jamaica will be used to support a rapid humanitarian response, including the provision of emergency supplies such as shelter kits, water purifiers, and blankets.

21:11:16

[UK Fiscal Cliff looms, Starmer refuses to commit to keeping taxes unchanged] ⑴ British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday refused to commit to his campaign promise to keep workers' taxes unchanged, foreshadowing potential tax increases in the budget. ⑵ Starmer stated that upcoming forecasts will show the economy is worse than expected, paving the way for policy adjustments. ⑶ Economists predict Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be forced to break her promise to raise income tax rates. ⑷ Conservative leader Neil Bardonock questioned the Prime Minister about his commitment not to raise income tax, social security, and VAT. ⑸ Starmer only stated that the government will announce its plans in the November 26 budget, avoiding a direct answer. ⑹ Official forecasting agencies predict a 0.3 percentage point downward revision to the UK productivity outlook, exceeding expectations. ⑺ The fiscal deficit could reach £20 billion, severely constraining the government's implementation of established fiscal rules. ⑻ Reeves is considering various options to achieve the goal of balancing daily expenditures and tax revenue by the end of this decade.

21:06:14

[US Job Market Sees Shocking Layoffs! Key Basis for Fed Rate Cut] ⑴ The US labor market has shifted from a "no hiring, no layoffs" model to a "no hiring, many layoffs" model, providing a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates. ⑵ Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs on Tuesday, and UPS has cut 48,000 jobs in the past year, with the technology and retail industries being the hardest hit. ⑶ Intel laid off 25,000, Microsoft laid off 15,000, and Accenture laid off 11,000, with layoffs sweeping across multiple industries. ⑷ From January to September, US employers announced a total of 947,000 layoffs, with the government, technology, and retail industries being the most severely affected. ⑸ Due to the lack of official employment data caused by the government shutdown, corporate layoff announcements have become a key indicator for judging market conditions. ⑹ The Chicago Fed model shows that the proportion of "layoffs and other departures" continues to rise, while the proportion of "unemployed people finding new jobs" has fallen to a four-year low. ⑺ ADP weekly data shows that the average increase in jobs over the four weeks ending October 11 was only 14,250, with job growth almost stagnant. (8) Although inflation is still 1 percentage point above the target, the downside risk to employment has outweighed the upside risk to inflation, becoming the dominant factor in policy.

21:05:32

October 29th US Market Update: Support and Resistance Levels for 18 Commodities (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, and 10 Currency Pairs) Details>

20:53:05

Does the Fed not need data to cut rates? The surprising truth behind the consensus. Details>

20:47:24

[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains ample. The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that Indonesian palm oil production is projected to increase by 10% in 2025, causing palm oil futures to fall rapidly. ⑵ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 170 yuan to 8690 yuan/ton, while the 2601 futures contract fell to 8840 yuan. ⑶ Current prices have entered a key support zone. A rebound from oversold levels is possible below 8800 yuan. Short positions near 9050 yuan/ton should be closed for profit. ⑷ US soybeans have recently strengthened due to firm domestic spot prices and strong crushing demand. ⑹ Import costs have supported a rebound in domestic soybean meal prices. Currently, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China is not a major issue. ⑺ However, a supply gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting the premium pattern for distant months. Short-term drivers are insufficient, and a weak range-bound trading strategy is recommended. ⑻ Seasonal selling pressure on corn remains. Downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase corn, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. (9) High supply pressure coupled with weak demand will maintain a loose supply situation in the short term, with prices trending downwards. Short selling is still recommended. (10) In the long term, the increase in hog supply is the main contradiction, especially with a significant theoretical increase in slaughter volume in October. (11) The loose supply situation may deepen further, but short-term market speculation is increasing, with secondary fattening entering the market. (12) Increased inventory at slaughterhouses is supporting hog price increases, but this support is expected to be temporary. Chasing the price increase is not recommended; a wait-and-see approach is advised in the short term. (13) The narrowing price difference between large and small eggs, coupled with a decrease in the proportion of small-sized eggs purchased by traders, indicates a limited number of newly laying hens. (14) At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; the progress and speed of the inflection point in egg production need to be monitored. (15) A wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term.

20:45:50

[US Crude Oil Inventories Approaching Crisis! Gasoline and Diesel Inventories Plunge, Triggering Supply and Demand Alarm] ⑴ A survey indicates that US crude oil inventories are expected to decrease by 200,000 barrels last week, continuing the destocking trend. ⑵ Distillate fuel inventories are expected to decrease by 1.7 million barrels, and gasoline inventories by 1.9 million barrels. ⑶ Refinery capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly by 0.2 percentage points, from 88.6% the previous week. ⑷ Data from the American Petroleum Institute shows an even larger actual decrease: crude oil decreased by 4.02 million barrels, and gasoline by 6.35 million barrels. ⑸ Distillate fuel inventories plummeted by 4.36 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, exacerbating the tight supply situation. ⑹ This survey was conducted before the weekly inventory report was released and covers forecasts from eight analytical institutions. ⑺ All inventory data are in millions of barrels, and refinery utilization rate changes are measured in percentage points. ⑻ The overall decline in inventories coupled with high refinery operating rates indicates a continued tight supply and demand situation in the energy market.

20:45:46

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Generally Strengthens] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the summit in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. ⑵ This may lead to countries like India reducing their purchases of Russian oil, causing a significant rebound in international oil prices. ⑶ Considering that OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase again at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has turned neutral. ⑷ However, with expectations of interest rate cuts, crude oil prices may remain strong. ⑸ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies triggering a strong reaction. ⑹ Expectations of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil remain, and prices rebounded following crude oil. ⑺ OPEC+ may increase production slightly again at its meeting this Sunday, but with positive macroeconomic expectations, fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. ⑻ Market sentiment in Shahe has improved somewhat, with some mid- and downstream companies restocking, and some manufacturers experiencing good sales and slightly raising prices. ⑼ Currently, glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year, while demand is still declining significantly year-on-year, and the actual pressure remains significant. (10) However, the market showed resilience in the short term due to stronger commodity sentiment. (11) Considering the rising cost logic, the downside potential for glass futures may be limited; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (12) The domestic soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand was lukewarm, and low-price restocking transactions were occurring. (13) The production of products from the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed. Short-term coal costs have constrained the decline; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (14) The Shandong liquid caustic soda market remained weak, with some companies continuing to lower prices, and most companies increasing their inventory at the end of the month. (15) Supply remained ample, and while downstream deliveries increased slightly, there was no peak season restocking demand for non-aluminum products. (16) There were no signs of improvement in fundamentals; a slightly bearish outlook for caustic soda futures is recommended. (17) The spot price in Taicang rose by 3 yuan to 2210 yuan, while the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region remained unchanged at 2010 yuan. ⒅ Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher today, while the inland methanol market saw narrow fluctuations, with smooth auction transactions. ⒆ Port methanol market basis remained stable, with moderate trading volume, and port inventories remaining high in the short term.

20:44:47

[Bond Market Awaits Fed's Dual-Front Decision! Rate Cuts and Balance Sheet Reduction Process Draw Market Attention] ⑴ The bond market is closely watching the Fed's interest rate decision and is also hoping for clues about the balance sheet reduction process. ⑵ The lack of official data has raised market concerns; how Powell will respond to questions about the future interest rate path is a key focus. ⑶ Market pricing indicates a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut today, with expectations for another rate cut in December rising simultaneously. ⑷ The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4% in a narrow range, while the 2-year yield remains stable at 3.5%. ⑸ Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leaders tomorrow, with trade issues being a core topic of discussion. ⑹ The yield curve has seen limited overall movement, with investors maintaining a cautious stance in the face of major risk events. ⑺ The direction of the balance sheet reduction policy is as important as the interest rate decision, jointly determining the future liquidity environment. ⑻ The bond market is exhibiting a typical wait-and-see pattern; breakthroughs in key technical levels require confirmation after policy clarification.

20:43:14

[Bank of England Rate Cut Probability Surges to 74%, Pound Falls to 2.5-Year Low] ⑴ Market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut have risen significantly, mainly driven by weaker-than-expected inflation and employment data. ⑵ The pound sterling and UK gilt yields are under pressure, creating a double whammy for the rate cut prospect. ⑶ The fiscal austerity measures that may be introduced in the November 26th budget provide support for an earlier rate cut by the central bank. ⑷ The interest rate market shows a 74% probability of a rate cut in December, a significant increase from 44% in early October. ⑸ The 10-year UK gilt yield held steady at 4.399%, close to the six-and-a-half-month low of 4.369% reached on Tuesday. ⑹ The pound fell to 0.8813 against the euro, its lowest level in two and a half years, with the downward trend continuing to strengthen. ⑺ Weak economic data and a shift in fiscal policy together constitute reasons for a rate cut, and a monetary easing cycle may be about to begin. ⑻ Pound assets are facing repricing, and the linked decline in exchange rates and yields reflects a significant shift in market expectations.

20:42:36

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Gold is currently in a volatile rebound phase. News suggests a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. ⑵ The overall strength of the metals sector led to silver stabilizing first, with technically, the price forming the first support level below 900 yuan. ⑶ Profit-taking by short sellers often leads to increased volatility and triggers reversals. Short sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines before the FOMC meeting. ⑷ If a rebound occurs, it is likely just a technical adjustment, and there is still a possibility of a pullback forming a "double bottom". ⑸ Based on Fibonacci retracement calculations, the support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 894-904 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 894-935 yuan. ⑹ Operationally, it is recommended to reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive strategy. ⑺ On the macro front, both overall and core inflation indicators in the US in September were lower than expected, while the job market showed signs of recovery in October. ⑻ Domestic and international copper mine disturbances continue, with the copper concentrate import index remaining negative, indicating a tight supply expectation. (9) The traditional peak demand season did not arrive as expected, and high copper prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. (10) The market is generally focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to implement the second rate cut this year. Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, this has boosted risk aversion. (11) LME low inventories have not improved, and domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels for the same period, opening export windows. (12) Demand is relatively stable, and considering the optimistic macroeconomic sentiment, Shanghai zinc prices may continue to stabilize. (13) Alumina prices rose at the end of the day, possibly due to environmental maintenance at a company in North China, but the impact is expected to be limited. (14) Overall, the supply and demand of alumina remains relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. The rebound is weak given the high inventory levels. (15) The overall macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the market optimistic about reaching a trade agreement. A positive domestic macroeconomic atmosphere supports market confidence. (16) Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland has ceased production, leading to expectations of tighter overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable but suppressed by high aluminum prices. 14. Weak downstream demand has delayed destocking, weakening short-term support. 15. Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, keeping prices firm; we expect Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum to remain volatile at high levels. 16. Lithium carbonate futures remain strong, supported by robust downstream demand and continued production increases and destocking. 20. However, in the long term, the price increase is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch; high supply pressure remains, and we should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential of the market.

20:40:12

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Pig iron production continues to decline, while demand has not yet weakened, and inventories continue to decrease, with the high inventory-to-sales ratio for steel still improving. ⑵ Boosted by macroeconomic expectations and cost increases, the market may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, but the lack of bright spots in demand may limit the rebound's height. ⑶ Strategically, maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks, paying attention to the speed of pig iron decline. ⑷ In terms of funding, the top 20 positions in the rebar 01 contract mainly reduced short positions, while the top 20 positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract saw a slight increase in long positions and a significant reduction in short positions. ⑸ Global shipments remain high, pig iron continues to decline, and port inventories have accumulated slightly. Before steel mills significantly replenish their inventories, the upward drive for iron ore is limited. ⑹ In the medium term, iron ore shipments in November may remain high, and pig iron production still has considerable room for decline, maintaining a weak expectation for iron ore. ⑺ Valuation still faces downward risks. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions in the iron ore 01 contract have decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions. (8) With slow supply recovery and the start of the third round of coking coal price increases, the current tight supply situation is likely to persist. (9) Coupled with renewed expectations of anti-involution, the market is likely to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. (10) With rising costs, steel mills may increase production cuts, and caution is needed regarding the downward pressure from profit-taking. (11) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach and avoid chasing the rally; the top 20 positions in the coking coal 2601 contract are engaged in fierce long-short battles. (12) Both long and short positions are mainly increasing, with long positions increasing more significantly, resulting in a slightly bullish change in open interest. (13) Coking plant profits have recovered somewhat, but production remains suppressed due to environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. (14) Rising costs and tight supply and demand have led to the start of the third round of coking coal spot price increases. (15) However, steel mill profits have not yet improved significantly, and with pig iron production declining from its high level, the time and space for improvement in coking plant profits may be limited. (16) Strategically, a long coal and short coking coal strategy can be maintained. 14. Factories have strong cost support and are not keen to sell at low prices. Downstream inquiries are generally weak given the decline in pig iron production. 15. Factory inventories continue to increase, and the company's own supply and demand drivers are weak. Short-term futures prices may fluctuate in line with the price of raw material coking coal. 16. In terms of funding, the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract mainly reduced their long positions, indicating a cautious investment attitude.

20:37:32

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Observing the 60-minute chart, gold prices previously fell from a high of 4154.54 along a downward slope, reaching a low of 3886.51 before forming a V-shaped rebound. During the rebound, Fibonacci retracement levels formed a clear "stepped resistance-support" system: the 0.618 retracement level is at 3989.15, which is the first line of defense for the bulls; the 0.500 retracement level is at 4020.79, and the current price is hovering around this level; the short-term high above is seen at 4029.50; the 0.382 retracement level is at 4052.43, and a break and hold above this level will target the 0.236 retracement level at 4091.57; further up, dense trading volume and historical resistance levels are concentrated around 4130, forming a "strong resistance zone" with the previous swing high of 4154.54. In terms of momentum indicators, the DIFF of MACD (26,12,9) has crossed above the DEA, and the histogram continues to expand, indicating that the momentum after the volume breakout is still being released; RSI (14) is near 62.39, has not yet entered overbought territory, and has room for upward movement. Overall, the downtrend line has been broken upward, and the market is in a technical rebound phase. If 4020.79 is effectively converted into support, the price is expected to advance step by step towards 4052.43 and 4091.57; if it falls back below 4020 and breaks below 3989.15, then we need to be wary of a pullback to the 3972-3910 range, and a deep pullback may retest 3886.51.

20:35:37

Gold's life-or-death situation: Powell may "blindly cut" by 25 basis points, traders are closely watching the 0.5 retracement. Details>

20:35:07

[Fed Decision Preview: Early End of QT May Ignite Short-Selling Opportunities] ⑴ The benchmark 10-year yield rose slightly by about 1 basis point, hovering below the key psychological level of 4%. ⑵ US Treasury Secretary Bessant attempted to break the Japanese government's control over the central bank, emphasizing the importance of policy autonomy. ⑶ If the Fed announces an early end to quantitative tightening, the initial rebound should be seen as a selling opportunity. ⑷ Powell is likely to avoid forward guidance, emphasizing that this rate cut is purely risk management amidst data uncertainty. ⑸ Tactical trading tends to remain neutral, operating within the 4% range of the 10-year yield. ⑹ The expected trading range for the 10-year yield is 4.02% to 3.95%, paying attention to the closing price. ⑺ The federal funds rate target is expected to be lowered by 25 basis points to 3.875%, in line with the expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025. ⑻ The pending home sales index is expected to rise by 1.0% in September, coupled with the 4.0% increase in August, which would be the highest level since March.

20:33:48

[Bank Stocks and Credit Risk Severely Diverge! Hidden Dangers Lurk Behind Market Optimism] ⑴ Valuations of major European and American banks do not reflect signs of credit pressure, contrasting sharply with the increasing number of struggling companies. ⑵ The five largest US banks are trading at an average of 2.2 times forward tangible book value, 58% higher than the 10-year average. ⑶ The six largest European banks are also trading at a 43% premium to their 10-year average, indicating widespread investor optimism. ⑷ Third-quarter earnings reports provide some support: UBS's CFO stated they are not worried about the overall environment. ⑸ Santander and Deutsche Bank both have lower loan loss provisions than the same period last year. ⑹ However, details reveal potential risks: BNP Paribas has set aside €190 million in bad debt provisions for its global markets business. ⑺ Deutsche Bank's investment banking loan loss provisions reached €308 million, more than double last year. ⑻ Slowly rising unemployment rates in the US, UK, and Germany typically push up mortgage and credit card losses.

20:29:53

[Euro Surges to 0.88 Against Pound! Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Trigger Market Earthquake] ⑴ The euro/pound exchange rate broke through the 0.8800 mark, setting a new annual high. ⑵ Continued concerns about the UK budget weighed on the pound's performance, with fiscal uncertainty posing a major pressure. ⑶ The market is positioning itself for a possible unexpected rate cut by the Bank of England. ⑷ Goldman Sachs' latest forecast has shifted to expecting a rate cut in November, reinforcing market expectations of easing. ⑸ Although the likelihood of a rate cut before the budget is low, policy risks cannot be completely ruled out. ⑹ The daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, indicating accumulating short-term downward pressure. ⑺ The risk-reward ratio is becoming unfavorable for establishing new long positions, significantly increasing the risk of chasing highs. ⑻ Buying on dips is a more preferable trading strategy; the market is bullish but technical corrections should be watched for.

20:27:56

BlackRock (BLK.N) and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) continue to drive strategic growth for BlackRock's Riyadh investment management platform. BlackRock will launch a mutual fund focusing on Saudi systemically active equities and Middle East and North Africa fixed income.

20:27:32

Mexico's Economy Minister: Negotiations with the United States are progressing. He has met with U.S. Trade Representative Greer.

20:22:55

[US Electric Spends $72 Billion! Capital Expenditure Surges, Boosting Stock Price 3.2%] ⑴ US Electric's pre-market stock price rose 3.2% to $118.80, as a significant increase in capital expenditure plans boosted market confidence. ⑵ The five-year capital expenditure plan surged from $54 billion to $72 billion, an increase of $18 billion. ⑶ The massive investment aims to meet unprecedented electricity demand growth, highlighting the industry's long-term positive outlook. ⑷ Third-quarter total revenue increased by nearly 11% year-on-year to $6.01 billion, demonstrating strong revenue growth. ⑸ Adjusted earnings per share were $1.80, slightly below the market expectation of $1.81, but the impact was offset by the capital plan. ⑹ As of the previous trading day, the stock had accumulated a 24.8% gain this year, significantly outperforming the broader market index. ⑺ The aggressive expansion of capital expenditure reflects the company's extreme optimism about the electricity demand outlook, which is expected to drive development across the entire industry chain. ⑻ The strong stock performance shows that investors recognize its long-term strategic layout and are willing to tolerate slight short-term profit underperformance.

20:22:54

[ADP Data May Damage Fed Confidence in December Rate Cut] Market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday, ADP released its four-week U.S. employment data ending October 11, 2025, showing an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, meaning approximately 57,000 jobs were added during those four weeks. The Dallas Fed estimated in early October that the current break-even point was around 30,000 jobs per month, while 57,000 is significantly higher. Given the lack of government data, the strong rebound in ADP data could make Fed Chairman Powell more cautious in hinting at a December rate cut. If so, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise and would significantly impact the market. Furthermore, Waller, one of the most dovish Fed governors and a candidate for Fed Chair, has also stated that ADP data is one of his reasons for supporting a rate cut. Recently, he stated, "I still believe in a rate cut, but we need to be cautious about it."

20:20:13

The bond market is "anchored" to everything: the dollar's resilience and gold's unusual movements are all waiting for Powell's starting gun. Details>

20:20:01

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian armed forces struck energy facilities that support the operation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex and a train carrying weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian army.

20:18:23

[Institution: Bank of Canada to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points; Macklem Expected to Offer No Specific Guidance] Investinglive analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the lower end of its estimated neutral rate range (2.25%-3.25%). The market still believes the Bank of Canada is likely to end this rate-cutting cycle at 2.00% sometime in 2026. At the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is not expected to provide any specific forward guidance. Recent expectations of a rate cut have solidified, mainly due to Macklem's previous dovish comments and the renewed tensions between the US and Canada over tariffs. While we know the US and Canada will eventually reconcile, this risk should, for now, give the Bank of Canada reason to be dovish. If the Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise, and the Canadian dollar should strengthen across the board. However, in the current context, surprising the market may not be a good thing for the bank.

20:14:42

Indian Oil Minister: Further purchases of Russian crude oil have been suspended.

20:11:34

Ukrainian military: Attacked two Russian oil refineries and a gas processing plant at night.

20:07:26

Saudi Tourism Minister: The industry is growing at a near double-digit rate, and this is normal when you start an industry.

20:07:11

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal: India and the EU are working to reach a balanced trade agreement.

20:06:19

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal: India and the EU have made significant progress in trade negotiations.

20:05:09

The U.S. secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) rose to 4.31%, a new high since before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 17.

20:02:34

[Standard Bank: 10-Year US Treasury Yield to Reach 5% Due to High Inflation] Standard Bank strategist Steven Barrow stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% "over the next year or so" as inflation will "persistently and significantly exceed target levels." Barrow cited tariffs and a tight labor market as contributing to inflationary pressures.

20:01:46

IBM (IBM.N) announced the launch of a defense-focused artificial intelligence model to accelerate mission planning and decision support.

20:00:17

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Believes peace will be achieved before the next international investment forum.

19:59:24

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We are on the road to peace.

19:57:17

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear power plant was successfully started during the Poseidon test, and the device "operated for a period of time."

19:56:52

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Looking forward to providing Russian energy for numerous global artificial intelligence infrastructure projects.

19:56:01

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We have the opportunity to discuss (with Saudi Arabia) how to jointly develop liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. Artificial intelligence and infrastructure projects hold enormous opportunities.

19:55:38

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is about to deploy the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. There is no way to intercept the Poseidon. The Poseidon is far more powerful than the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is our most favored.

19:54:55

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We have the opportunity to discuss with Saudi Arabia how to jointly develop liquefied natural gas (LNG) business.

19:53:30

The CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) stated that sanctions on Russian oil would drive up US gasoline prices, and that the Saudi Crown Prince made a significant commitment to invest with the RDIF during his visit to Russia. Any potential revisions to the Spanish acquisition law must address efficiency issues.

19:52:33

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia conducted a test launch of the Poseidon nuclear submarine missile, and the test of the Poseidon nuclear submarine equipped with a nuclear power plant was a great success.

19:51:06

[Germany Sets 2025 Minimum Wage and Announces Phased Increase Plan] ⑴ The German government announced that the minimum hourly wage will be €12.82 in 2025, with plans to raise it to €14.60 in two phases by 2027. ⑵ The first increase will be implemented in early 2026, at which time the minimum wage will rise to €13.90. ⑶ This adjustment plan follows the recommendations of a government-appointed committee of employers and trade union representatives. ⑷ This plan is lower than the €15 hourly wage target for 2026 advocated by the conservative-socialist coalition led by Chancellor Merz. ⑸ The increase plan has drawn criticism, with warnings that higher labor costs could jeopardize employment. ⑹ This is especially relevant after two years of economic contraction, with the number of unemployed exceeding 3 million for the first time in a decade in August, only slightly falling below that level in September.

19:50:41

[India's Sensex Hits One-Year High, Energy and Metals Stocks Lead Gains] ⑴ India's Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex closed up 0.4% at 84,997 points on Wednesday, its highest closing level since September 2024, rebounding from yesterday's decline. ⑵ Energy and metals stocks led the gains, primarily driven by optimism surrounding trade negotiations. ⑶ Market sentiment also benefited from strong domestic data, continued foreign capital inflows, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. ⑷ Tuesday's data showed that India's industrial production grew by 4% year-on-year in September 2025, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.6%. ⑸ Reports that US President Trump may soon finalize a long-delayed trade agreement with India further boosted the market. ⑹ In terms of individual stocks, National Thermal Power, Grid Corporation of India, Adani Ports, HCL Technology, and Tata Steel led the gains, with increases ranging from 1.7% to 3.1%. ⑺ Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, and Bajaji Financial lagged behind, with declines ranging from 0.9% to 1.4%.

45

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3956.70	-44.46 (-1.11%)
XAG	47.337	-0.722 (-1.50%)
CONC	60.54	-0.51 (-0.84%)
OILC	64.39	-0.43 (-0.67%)
USD	100.140	0.276 (0.28%)
EURUSD	1.1481	-0.0037 (-0.33%)
GBPUSD	1.3045	-0.0094 (-0.71%)
USDCNH	7.1336	0.0092 (0.13%)

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