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2025-10-29 Wednesday

2025-11-04

22:30:07

U.S. EIA weekly crude oil production for the week ending October 24

Previous : 60 Forecast : -

Published Value -51.10

Previous

22:30:07

The change in U.S. EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -214.70 Forecast : -190.30

Published Value -594.10

Previous

22:30:07

U.S. EIA Weekly crude oil imports for the week ending October 24

Previous : 65.60 Forecast : -

Published Value -102.50

Previous

22:30:07

EIA Oklahoma - Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : -77 Forecast : -

Published Value 133.40

Previous

22:30:05

U.S. EIA Weekly new formula gasoline inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -0.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10

Previous

22:30:04

The change in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -96.10 Forecast : -21.10

Published Value -685.80

Previous

22:30:04

Changes in U.S. EIA distillate inventories for the week ending October 24

Previous : -147.90 Forecast : -173.50

Published Value -336.20

Previous

22:30:02

Changes in equipment utilization rates of U.S. EIA refineries for the week ending October 24

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -2%

Previous

22:01:58

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales contracts in the United States for September

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.50%

Previous

22:00:03

The seasonally adjusted existing home contract sales index for the United States in September

Previous : 74.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 74.80

Previous

22:00:02

The seasonally adjusted existing home sales index for the United States in September rose monthly

Previous : 4% Forecast : 1%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 0%

Previous

21:45:02

The overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada in October

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : 2.25%

Neutral

Published Value 2.25%

Previous

20:47:24

[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains ample. The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that Indonesian palm oil production is projected to increase by 10% in 2025, causing palm oil futures to fall rapidly. ⑵ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 170 yuan to 8690 yuan/ton, while the 2601 futures contract fell to 8840 yuan. ⑶ Current prices have entered a key support zone. A rebound from oversold levels is possible below 8800 yuan. Short positions near 9050 yuan/ton should be closed for profit. ⑷ US soybeans have recently strengthened due to firm domestic spot prices and strong crushing demand. ⑹ Import costs have supported a rebound in domestic soybean meal prices. Currently, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China is not a major issue. ⑺ However, a supply gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting the premium pattern for distant months. Short-term drivers are insufficient, and a weak range-bound trading strategy is recommended. ⑻ Seasonal selling pressure on corn remains. Downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase corn, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. (9) High supply pressure coupled with weak demand will maintain a loose supply situation in the short term, with prices trending downwards. Short selling is still recommended. (10) In the long term, the increase in hog supply is the main contradiction, especially with a significant theoretical increase in slaughter volume in October. (11) The loose supply situation may deepen further, but short-term market speculation is increasing, with secondary fattening entering the market. (12) Increased inventory at slaughterhouses is supporting hog price increases, but this support is expected to be temporary. Chasing the price increase is not recommended; a wait-and-see approach is advised in the short term. (13) The narrowing price difference between large and small eggs, coupled with a decrease in the proportion of small-sized eggs purchased by traders, indicates a limited number of newly laying hens. (14) At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; the progress and speed of the inflection point in egg production need to be monitored. (15) A wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term.

20:45:46

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Generally Strengthens] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the summit in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. ⑵ This may lead to countries like India reducing their purchases of Russian oil, causing a significant rebound in international oil prices. ⑶ Considering that OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase again at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has turned neutral. ⑷ However, with expectations of interest rate cuts, crude oil prices may remain strong. ⑸ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies triggering a strong reaction. ⑹ Expectations of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil remain, and prices rebounded following crude oil. ⑺ OPEC+ may increase production slightly again at its meeting this Sunday, but with positive macroeconomic expectations, fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. ⑻ Market sentiment in Shahe has improved somewhat, with some mid- and downstream companies restocking, and some manufacturers experiencing good sales and slightly raising prices. ⑼ Currently, glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year, while demand is still declining significantly year-on-year, and the actual pressure remains significant. (10) However, the market showed resilience in the short term due to stronger commodity sentiment. (11) Considering the rising cost logic, the downside potential for glass futures may be limited; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (12) The domestic soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand was lukewarm, and low-price restocking transactions were occurring. (13) The production of products from the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed. Short-term coal costs have constrained the decline; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (14) The Shandong liquid caustic soda market remained weak, with some companies continuing to lower prices, and most companies increasing their inventory at the end of the month. (15) Supply remained ample, and while downstream deliveries increased slightly, there was no peak season restocking demand for non-aluminum products. (16) There were no signs of improvement in fundamentals; a slightly bearish outlook for caustic soda futures is recommended. (17) The spot price in Taicang rose by 3 yuan to 2210 yuan, while the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region remained unchanged at 2010 yuan. ⒅ Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher today, while the inland methanol market saw narrow fluctuations, with smooth auction transactions. ⒆ Port methanol market basis remained stable, with moderate trading volume, and port inventories remaining high in the short term.

20:42:36

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Gold is currently in a volatile rebound phase. News suggests a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. ⑵ The overall strength of the metals sector led to silver stabilizing first, with technically, the price forming the first support level below 900 yuan. ⑶ Profit-taking by short sellers often leads to increased volatility and triggers reversals. Short sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines before the FOMC meeting. ⑷ If a rebound occurs, it is likely just a technical adjustment, and there is still a possibility of a pullback forming a "double bottom". ⑸ Based on Fibonacci retracement calculations, the support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 894-904 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 894-935 yuan. ⑹ Operationally, it is recommended to reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive strategy. ⑺ On the macro front, both overall and core inflation indicators in the US in September were lower than expected, while the job market showed signs of recovery in October. ⑻ Domestic and international copper mine disturbances continue, with the copper concentrate import index remaining negative, indicating a tight supply expectation. (9) The traditional peak demand season did not arrive as expected, and high copper prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. (10) The market is generally focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to implement the second rate cut this year. Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, this has boosted risk aversion. (11) LME low inventories have not improved, and domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels for the same period, opening export windows. (12) Demand is relatively stable, and considering the optimistic macroeconomic sentiment, Shanghai zinc prices may continue to stabilize. (13) Alumina prices rose at the end of the day, possibly due to environmental maintenance at a company in North China, but the impact is expected to be limited. (14) Overall, the supply and demand of alumina remains relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. The rebound is weak given the high inventory levels. (15) The overall macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the market optimistic about reaching a trade agreement. A positive domestic macroeconomic atmosphere supports market confidence. (16) Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland has ceased production, leading to expectations of tighter overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable but suppressed by high aluminum prices. 14. Weak downstream demand has delayed destocking, weakening short-term support. 15. Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, keeping prices firm; we expect Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum to remain volatile at high levels. 16. Lithium carbonate futures remain strong, supported by robust downstream demand and continued production increases and destocking. 20. However, in the long term, the price increase is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch; high supply pressure remains, and we should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential of the market.

20:40:12

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Pig iron production continues to decline, while demand has not yet weakened, and inventories continue to decrease, with the high inventory-to-sales ratio for steel still improving. ⑵ Boosted by macroeconomic expectations and cost increases, the market may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, but the lack of bright spots in demand may limit the rebound's height. ⑶ Strategically, maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks, paying attention to the speed of pig iron decline. ⑷ In terms of funding, the top 20 positions in the rebar 01 contract mainly reduced short positions, while the top 20 positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract saw a slight increase in long positions and a significant reduction in short positions. ⑸ Global shipments remain high, pig iron continues to decline, and port inventories have accumulated slightly. Before steel mills significantly replenish their inventories, the upward drive for iron ore is limited. ⑹ In the medium term, iron ore shipments in November may remain high, and pig iron production still has considerable room for decline, maintaining a weak expectation for iron ore. ⑺ Valuation still faces downward risks. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions in the iron ore 01 contract have decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions. (8) With slow supply recovery and the start of the third round of coking coal price increases, the current tight supply situation is likely to persist. (9) Coupled with renewed expectations of anti-involution, the market is likely to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. (10) With rising costs, steel mills may increase production cuts, and caution is needed regarding the downward pressure from profit-taking. (11) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach and avoid chasing the rally; the top 20 positions in the coking coal 2601 contract are engaged in fierce long-short battles. (12) Both long and short positions are mainly increasing, with long positions increasing more significantly, resulting in a slightly bullish change in open interest. (13) Coking plant profits have recovered somewhat, but production remains suppressed due to environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. (14) Rising costs and tight supply and demand have led to the start of the third round of coking coal spot price increases. (15) However, steel mill profits have not yet improved significantly, and with pig iron production declining from its high level, the time and space for improvement in coking plant profits may be limited. (16) Strategically, a long coal and short coking coal strategy can be maintained. 14. Factories have strong cost support and are not keen to sell at low prices. Downstream inquiries are generally weak given the decline in pig iron production. 15. Factory inventories continue to increase, and the company's own supply and demand drivers are weak. Short-term futures prices may fluctuate in line with the price of raw material coking coal. 16. In terms of funding, the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract mainly reduced their long positions, indicating a cautious investment attitude.

20:37:32

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Observing the 60-minute chart, gold prices previously fell from a high of 4154.54 along a downward slope, reaching a low of 3886.51 before forming a V-shaped rebound. During the rebound, Fibonacci retracement levels formed a clear "stepped resistance-support" system: the 0.618 retracement level is at 3989.15, which is the first line of defense for the bulls; the 0.500 retracement level is at 4020.79, and the current price is hovering around this level; the short-term high above is seen at 4029.50; the 0.382 retracement level is at 4052.43, and a break and hold above this level will target the 0.236 retracement level at 4091.57; further up, dense trading volume and historical resistance levels are concentrated around 4130, forming a "strong resistance zone" with the previous swing high of 4154.54. In terms of momentum indicators, the DIFF of MACD (26,12,9) has crossed above the DEA, and the histogram continues to expand, indicating that the momentum after the volume breakout is still being released; RSI (14) is near 62.39, has not yet entered overbought territory, and has room for upward movement. Overall, the downtrend line has been broken upward, and the market is in a technical rebound phase. If 4020.79 is effectively converted into support, the price is expected to advance step by step towards 4052.43 and 4091.57; if it falls back below 4020 and breaks below 3989.15, then we need to be wary of a pullback to the 3972-3910 range, and a deep pullback may retest 3886.51.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3956.70

-44.46

(-1.11%)

XAG

47.337

-0.722

(-1.50%)

CONC

60.54

-0.51

(-0.84%)

OILC

64.39

-0.43

(-0.67%)

USD

100.140

0.276

(0.28%)

EURUSD

1.1481

-0.0037

(-0.33%)

GBPUSD

1.3045

-0.0094

(-0.71%)

USDCNH

7.1336

0.0092

(0.13%)