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2025-07-29 Tuesday

2025-08-02

09:39:44

[RMB central parity rate fell for three consecutive days, and the downward space may be limited] 1. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center lowered the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar by 44 basis points to 7.1511 yuan on Tuesday, hitting a new low since July 21, achieving three consecutive declines. It is worth noting that the quotation is 380 basis points stronger than the Reuters forecast, showing that under the background of the strong rebound of the US dollar, the regulatory authorities are sending a signal of maintaining stability through the central parity rate. Market analysts believe that the short-term downward space of the RMB is limited, and the subsequent trend needs to pay attention to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. 2. Market data shows that the onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 yuan the previous day and closed at 7.1787 yuan in the night session; the offshore RMB was last reported at 7.1803 yuan. The previous Reuters-calculated central parity forecast value was 7.1891 yuan, which was significantly different from the actual quotation, indicating that the current "counter-cyclical factor" regulatory effect has not yet appeared. 3. Lu Zhe, chief economist of Soochow Securities, pointed out that the strong signal transmitted by the regulatory authorities through the central parity rate is being gradually digested by the market, and the gradual appreciation trend of the RMB may accelerate. It is expected that the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB in August may drop to the range of 7.10-7.15. 4. Market focus: Senior Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold talks in Stockholm on Monday, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and important US economic data will be released this week, and the Bank of Japan policy meeting is about to be held. 5. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index remained stable near a two-week high in the Asian session. After the US and Europe reached a trade agreement, the euro fluctuated downward. If it falls below the 50-day moving average, it may end the recent rebound trend.

09:19:16

[Haval M6 officially starts full-process localized production in Russia] Russian independent enterprise Automotive Technology Company announced that it has officially started full-process localized production of Haval M6 at the leased PSMA Rus factory in Kaluga Oblast. The news said: "Automotive Technology Company has started full-process production of Haval M6. At the end of 2024, the company signed a lease agreement with the PSMA Rus factory in Kaluga Oblast to produce Haval cars." According to reports, the assembly of parts for this model began in February this year. By simultaneously completing the modernization and upgrading of the welding and spraying workshops and transforming the assembly line system, the company completed the transformation to full-process production in a short period of time. The company is equipped with 15 robots, 40 welding tongs, about 10 arc welding equipment for the welding process, and has also installed about 30 sets of welding fixtures and 2 lifting robots. The company added that it has completed the adaptation of the product quality assessment and testing standards of the Haval M6 model in the shortest time. The Haval M6 is a front-wheel drive crossover model. The version produced in Kaluga will be equipped with a 1.5-liter gasoline engine with a maximum output of 143 horsepower. It will be available with either a 6-speed manual or a 7-speed dual-clutch automatic transmission. It will be available in three exterior colors: white, black, and gray.

09:04:42

Gold prices are under downward pressure, impacted by easing trade tensions and a stronger dollar. 1. Gold prices continued their decline in early Asian trading on Tuesday, currently trading around the 3,310 level, down approximately 0.12%. This decline was primarily driven by easing global trade tensions and a stronger US dollar index. Market participants are also focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting for clues on future interest rate trends. Overnight, gold prices hit their lowest level since July 9th at $3,301.75 per ounce. 2. Recent positive signs in international trade relations have eased market concerns about a global tariff war. Senior US and Chinese economic officials held lengthy talks in Stockholm on Monday, focusing on resolving the core issues of their long-standing trade dispute and pushing for an extension of the tariff truce. Furthermore, the US and the EU reached a framework agreement on Sunday, setting import tariffs on EU goods at 15%, significantly lower than previously threatened, averting further escalation in the transatlantic trade conflict. These developments have weakened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. 3. The US dollar index rose 1% overnight and remained near a one-week high, increasing the cost of gold purchases in non-US currencies, further suppressing gold prices. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting. Although the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged at this meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch tool, traders are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September. The uncertainty of the future monetary policy path may bring new volatility to the gold market.

08:13:39

[German government to pass 2026 budget draft, investment and borrowing to hit new highs] ⑴ The German government will pass a 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment and 174.3 billion euros in borrowing, as part of its infrastructure and defense fiscal plan, according to sources from the German Ministry of Finance. As Europe's largest economy, Germany has fallen from an economic powerhouse to a laggard in the eurozone. Germany is currently abandoning decades of fiscal conservatism, hoping to revive economic growth, modernize its crumbling infrastructure, and expand military spending. Germany is the only economy in the Group of Seven (G7) that has failed to grow in the past two years, and the government predicted in the spring that the economy would stagnate again this year. According to the budget plan, the economic environment in 2025 and 2026 should be significantly better than the above forecast, sources said. The 2026 budget draft will be presented together with the medium-term fiscal framework until 2029, and the entire package is expected to be approved by the cabinet. Budget discussions will begin in parliament at the end of September and are expected to be approved by both houses of parliament before the end of the year. (2) The draft budget for 2026 calls for total spending of €520.5 billion ($606.8 billion), including €126.7 billion ($147.71 billion) in special investments for state modernization, up from €74.5 billion in 2024 and €115.7 billion in 2025. The surge in investment in 2026 and the three years that follow is mainly due to the €500 billion ($583 billion) special infrastructure fund approved in March and defense spending no longer subject to the "debt brake" that limits borrowing to 0.35% of gross domestic product. The infrastructure fund will increase borrowing by €58.9 billion in 2026. The special fund is also not subject to the debt brake. For defense, the €100 billion special fund set up by former Chancellor Scholz after Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be used up in 2027 and will increase borrowing by €25.5 billion in 2026. Borrowing in the core budget will increase from €33.3 billion in 2024 to €89.9 billion in 2026, sources said. Adding the three components together will bring total borrowing to 174.3 billion euros ($203.2 billion) in 2026. Under the previous government, borrowing totaled 50.5 billion euros in 2024. Interest payments will rise more than previously forecast, expected to rise to 66.5 billion euros in 2029, from an earlier estimate of 61.9 billion euros, the sources said.

07:21:41

The annual rate of the UK's BRC Store price index for July

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.70%

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