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2025-10-29 Wednesday

2025-11-04

21:26:42

[BlackRock and Saudi PIF Join Forces to Launch a Major Initiative, Ushering in a Major Transformation for the Middle East Mutual Fund Market] ⑴ BlackRock and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) have jointly launched a new mutual fund covering multiple asset classes. ⑵ The fund focuses on Saudi equities and fixed-income assets in the Middle East and North Africa, positioning itself with a regional focus. ⑶ Global and local investors can subscribe to the product through BlackRock's Riyadh investment management platform. ⑷ This collaboration aims to deepen the development of Saudi capital markets and support Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 strategic goals. ⑸ The portfolio is directly managed by fund managers based in Riyadh, highlighting a localized operational strategy. ⑹ BlackRock's staff in Saudi Arabia has nearly tripled since April 2024. ⑺ The company is expanding its global graduate analyst program to Riyadh, with the third cohort graduating in 2026. ⑻ The Middle East investment product line continues to expand, covering public markets and private assets, including infrastructure.

21:25:46

[Pound Sterling Under Pressure! Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Battle for 1.30 Level] ⑴ Negative factors for the pound continue to accumulate, with the exchange rate against the dollar gradually approaching its mid-year low and hitting a new annual low against the euro. ⑵ Continued concerns about the UK budget and weak inflation data triggering dovish repricing are dragging down the pound's performance. ⑶ Although a rate cut by the Bank of England before its autumn statement remains low, the possibility of a rate cut at the November meeting cannot be completely ruled out. ⑷ Recent significant disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee have laid the groundwork for a surprise rate cut decision. ⑸ Institutions such as Goldman Sachs have already predicted a rate cut in November, and the market is preparing for a possible unexpected decision next week. ⑹ The market is currently pricing in a 33% probability of a rate cut, a significant increase from 15% before the inflation data release. ⑺ If the Bank of England does decide to cut rates in November, the pound could fall sharply towards the psychological level of 1.3000 against the dollar. ⑻ Technical and fundamental factors are converging in a bearish trend, significantly increasing the risk of the exchange rate testing key support levels.

21:24:53

The UK government stated that aid funds for Jamaica will be used to support a rapid humanitarian response, including the provision of emergency supplies such as shelter kits, water purifiers, and blankets.

21:11:16

[UK Fiscal Cliff looms, Starmer refuses to commit to keeping taxes unchanged] ⑴ British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday refused to commit to his campaign promise to keep workers' taxes unchanged, foreshadowing potential tax increases in the budget. ⑵ Starmer stated that upcoming forecasts will show the economy is worse than expected, paving the way for policy adjustments. ⑶ Economists predict Chancellor Rachel Reeves may be forced to break her promise to raise income tax rates. ⑷ Conservative leader Neil Bardonock questioned the Prime Minister about his commitment not to raise income tax, social security, and VAT. ⑸ Starmer only stated that the government will announce its plans in the November 26 budget, avoiding a direct answer. ⑹ Official forecasting agencies predict a 0.3 percentage point downward revision to the UK productivity outlook, exceeding expectations. ⑺ The fiscal deficit could reach £20 billion, severely constraining the government's implementation of established fiscal rules. ⑻ Reeves is considering various options to achieve the goal of balancing daily expenditures and tax revenue by the end of this decade.

21:06:14

[US Job Market Sees Shocking Layoffs! Key Basis for Fed Rate Cut] ⑴ The US labor market has shifted from a "no hiring, no layoffs" model to a "no hiring, many layoffs" model, providing a basis for the Fed to cut interest rates. ⑵ Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs on Tuesday, and UPS has cut 48,000 jobs in the past year, with the technology and retail industries being the hardest hit. ⑶ Intel laid off 25,000, Microsoft laid off 15,000, and Accenture laid off 11,000, with layoffs sweeping across multiple industries. ⑷ From January to September, US employers announced a total of 947,000 layoffs, with the government, technology, and retail industries being the most severely affected. ⑸ Due to the lack of official employment data caused by the government shutdown, corporate layoff announcements have become a key indicator for judging market conditions. ⑹ The Chicago Fed model shows that the proportion of "layoffs and other departures" continues to rise, while the proportion of "unemployed people finding new jobs" has fallen to a four-year low. ⑺ ADP weekly data shows that the average increase in jobs over the four weeks ending October 11 was only 14,250, with job growth almost stagnant. (8) Although inflation is still 1 percentage point above the target, the downside risk to employment has outweighed the upside risk to inflation, becoming the dominant factor in policy.

21:05:32

October 29th US Market Update: Support and Resistance Levels for 18 Commodities (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, and 10 Currency Pairs) Details>

20:53:05

Does the Fed not need data to cut rates? The surprising truth behind the consensus. Details>

20:47:24

[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains ample. The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association stated that Indonesian palm oil production is projected to increase by 10% in 2025, causing palm oil futures to fall rapidly. ⑵ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 170 yuan to 8690 yuan/ton, while the 2601 futures contract fell to 8840 yuan. ⑶ Current prices have entered a key support zone. A rebound from oversold levels is possible below 8800 yuan. Short positions near 9050 yuan/ton should be closed for profit. ⑷ US soybeans have recently strengthened due to firm domestic spot prices and strong crushing demand. ⑹ Import costs have supported a rebound in domestic soybean meal prices. Currently, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China is not a major issue. ⑺ However, a supply gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting the premium pattern for distant months. Short-term drivers are insufficient, and a weak range-bound trading strategy is recommended. ⑻ Seasonal selling pressure on corn remains. Downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase corn, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. (9) High supply pressure coupled with weak demand will maintain a loose supply situation in the short term, with prices trending downwards. Short selling is still recommended. (10) In the long term, the increase in hog supply is the main contradiction, especially with a significant theoretical increase in slaughter volume in October. (11) The loose supply situation may deepen further, but short-term market speculation is increasing, with secondary fattening entering the market. (12) Increased inventory at slaughterhouses is supporting hog price increases, but this support is expected to be temporary. Chasing the price increase is not recommended; a wait-and-see approach is advised in the short term. (13) The narrowing price difference between large and small eggs, coupled with a decrease in the proportion of small-sized eggs purchased by traders, indicates a limited number of newly laying hens. (14) At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; the progress and speed of the inflection point in egg production need to be monitored. (15) A wait-and-see approach is recommended in the short term.

20:45:50

[US Crude Oil Inventories Approaching Crisis! Gasoline and Diesel Inventories Plunge, Triggering Supply and Demand Alarm] ⑴ A survey indicates that US crude oil inventories are expected to decrease by 200,000 barrels last week, continuing the destocking trend. ⑵ Distillate fuel inventories are expected to decrease by 1.7 million barrels, and gasoline inventories by 1.9 million barrels. ⑶ Refinery capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly by 0.2 percentage points, from 88.6% the previous week. ⑷ Data from the American Petroleum Institute shows an even larger actual decrease: crude oil decreased by 4.02 million barrels, and gasoline by 6.35 million barrels. ⑸ Distillate fuel inventories plummeted by 4.36 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, exacerbating the tight supply situation. ⑹ This survey was conducted before the weekly inventory report was released and covers forecasts from eight analytical institutions. ⑺ All inventory data are in millions of barrels, and refinery utilization rate changes are measured in percentage points. ⑻ The overall decline in inventories coupled with high refinery operating rates indicates a continued tight supply and demand situation in the energy market.

20:45:46

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Generally Strengthens] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the summit in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU officially passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. ⑵ This may lead to countries like India reducing their purchases of Russian oil, causing a significant rebound in international oil prices. ⑶ Considering that OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase again at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has turned neutral. ⑷ However, with expectations of interest rate cuts, crude oil prices may remain strong. ⑸ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies triggering a strong reaction. ⑹ Expectations of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil remain, and prices rebounded following crude oil. ⑺ OPEC+ may increase production slightly again at its meeting this Sunday, but with positive macroeconomic expectations, fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. ⑻ Market sentiment in Shahe has improved somewhat, with some mid- and downstream companies restocking, and some manufacturers experiencing good sales and slightly raising prices. ⑼ Currently, glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year, while demand is still declining significantly year-on-year, and the actual pressure remains significant. (10) However, the market showed resilience in the short term due to stronger commodity sentiment. (11) Considering the rising cost logic, the downside potential for glass futures may be limited; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (12) The domestic soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream demand was lukewarm, and low-price restocking transactions were occurring. (13) The production of products from the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed. Short-term coal costs have constrained the decline; a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (14) The Shandong liquid caustic soda market remained weak, with some companies continuing to lower prices, and most companies increasing their inventory at the end of the month. (15) Supply remained ample, and while downstream deliveries increased slightly, there was no peak season restocking demand for non-aluminum products. (16) There were no signs of improvement in fundamentals; a slightly bearish outlook for caustic soda futures is recommended. (17) The spot price in Taicang rose by 3 yuan to 2210 yuan, while the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region remained unchanged at 2010 yuan. ⒅ Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher today, while the inland methanol market saw narrow fluctuations, with smooth auction transactions. ⒆ Port methanol market basis remained stable, with moderate trading volume, and port inventories remaining high in the short term.

20:44:47

[Bond Market Awaits Fed's Dual-Front Decision! Rate Cuts and Balance Sheet Reduction Process Draw Market Attention] ⑴ The bond market is closely watching the Fed's interest rate decision and is also hoping for clues about the balance sheet reduction process. ⑵ The lack of official data has raised market concerns; how Powell will respond to questions about the future interest rate path is a key focus. ⑶ Market pricing indicates a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut today, with expectations for another rate cut in December rising simultaneously. ⑷ The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4% in a narrow range, while the 2-year yield remains stable at 3.5%. ⑸ Trump is expected to meet with Chinese leaders tomorrow, with trade issues being a core topic of discussion. ⑹ The yield curve has seen limited overall movement, with investors maintaining a cautious stance in the face of major risk events. ⑺ The direction of the balance sheet reduction policy is as important as the interest rate decision, jointly determining the future liquidity environment. ⑻ The bond market is exhibiting a typical wait-and-see pattern; breakthroughs in key technical levels require confirmation after policy clarification.

20:43:14

[Bank of England Rate Cut Probability Surges to 74%, Pound Falls to 2.5-Year Low] ⑴ Market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut have risen significantly, mainly driven by weaker-than-expected inflation and employment data. ⑵ The pound sterling and UK gilt yields are under pressure, creating a double whammy for the rate cut prospect. ⑶ The fiscal austerity measures that may be introduced in the November 26th budget provide support for an earlier rate cut by the central bank. ⑷ The interest rate market shows a 74% probability of a rate cut in December, a significant increase from 44% in early October. ⑸ The 10-year UK gilt yield held steady at 4.399%, close to the six-and-a-half-month low of 4.369% reached on Tuesday. ⑹ The pound fell to 0.8813 against the euro, its lowest level in two and a half years, with the downward trend continuing to strengthen. ⑺ Weak economic data and a shift in fiscal policy together constitute reasons for a rate cut, and a monetary easing cycle may be about to begin. ⑻ Pound assets are facing repricing, and the linked decline in exchange rates and yields reflects a significant shift in market expectations.

20:42:36

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Gold is currently in a volatile rebound phase. News suggests a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning. ⑵ The overall strength of the metals sector led to silver stabilizing first, with technically, the price forming the first support level below 900 yuan. ⑶ Profit-taking by short sellers often leads to increased volatility and triggers reversals. Short sellers are likely to remain on the sidelines before the FOMC meeting. ⑷ If a rebound occurs, it is likely just a technical adjustment, and there is still a possibility of a pullback forming a "double bottom". ⑸ Based on Fibonacci retracement calculations, the support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 894-904 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 894-935 yuan. ⑹ Operationally, it is recommended to reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive strategy. ⑺ On the macro front, both overall and core inflation indicators in the US in September were lower than expected, while the job market showed signs of recovery in October. ⑻ Domestic and international copper mine disturbances continue, with the copper concentrate import index remaining negative, indicating a tight supply expectation. (9) The traditional peak demand season did not arrive as expected, and high copper prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm. (10) The market is generally focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, which is expected to implement the second rate cut this year. Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, this has boosted risk aversion. (11) LME low inventories have not improved, and domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels for the same period, opening export windows. (12) Demand is relatively stable, and considering the optimistic macroeconomic sentiment, Shanghai zinc prices may continue to stabilize. (13) Alumina prices rose at the end of the day, possibly due to environmental maintenance at a company in North China, but the impact is expected to be limited. (14) Overall, the supply and demand of alumina remains relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not been effectively alleviated. The rebound is weak given the high inventory levels. (15) The overall macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the market optimistic about reaching a trade agreement. A positive domestic macroeconomic atmosphere supports market confidence. (16) Century Aluminum's electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland has ceased production, leading to expectations of tighter overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable but suppressed by high aluminum prices. 14. Weak downstream demand has delayed destocking, weakening short-term support. 15. Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, keeping prices firm; we expect Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum to remain volatile at high levels. 16. Lithium carbonate futures remain strong, supported by robust downstream demand and continued production increases and destocking. 20. However, in the long term, the price increase is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch; high supply pressure remains, and we should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential of the market.

20:40:12

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Pig iron production continues to decline, while demand has not yet weakened, and inventories continue to decrease, with the high inventory-to-sales ratio for steel still improving. ⑵ Boosted by macroeconomic expectations and cost increases, the market may maintain a slightly bullish oscillation in the short term, but the lack of bright spots in demand may limit the rebound's height. ⑶ Strategically, maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks, paying attention to the speed of pig iron decline. ⑷ In terms of funding, the top 20 positions in the rebar 01 contract mainly reduced short positions, while the top 20 positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract saw a slight increase in long positions and a significant reduction in short positions. ⑸ Global shipments remain high, pig iron continues to decline, and port inventories have accumulated slightly. Before steel mills significantly replenish their inventories, the upward drive for iron ore is limited. ⑹ In the medium term, iron ore shipments in November may remain high, and pig iron production still has considerable room for decline, maintaining a weak expectation for iron ore. ⑺ Valuation still faces downward risks. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions in the iron ore 01 contract have decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions. (8) With slow supply recovery and the start of the third round of coking coal price increases, the current tight supply situation is likely to persist. (9) Coupled with renewed expectations of anti-involution, the market is likely to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. (10) With rising costs, steel mills may increase production cuts, and caution is needed regarding the downward pressure from profit-taking. (11) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach and avoid chasing the rally; the top 20 positions in the coking coal 2601 contract are engaged in fierce long-short battles. (12) Both long and short positions are mainly increasing, with long positions increasing more significantly, resulting in a slightly bullish change in open interest. (13) Coking plant profits have recovered somewhat, but production remains suppressed due to environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. (14) Rising costs and tight supply and demand have led to the start of the third round of coking coal spot price increases. (15) However, steel mill profits have not yet improved significantly, and with pig iron production declining from its high level, the time and space for improvement in coking plant profits may be limited. (16) Strategically, a long coal and short coking coal strategy can be maintained. 14. Factories have strong cost support and are not keen to sell at low prices. Downstream inquiries are generally weak given the decline in pig iron production. 15. Factory inventories continue to increase, and the company's own supply and demand drivers are weak. Short-term futures prices may fluctuate in line with the price of raw material coking coal. 16. In terms of funding, the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract mainly reduced their long positions, indicating a cautious investment attitude.

20:37:32

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Observing the 60-minute chart, gold prices previously fell from a high of 4154.54 along a downward slope, reaching a low of 3886.51 before forming a V-shaped rebound. During the rebound, Fibonacci retracement levels formed a clear "stepped resistance-support" system: the 0.618 retracement level is at 3989.15, which is the first line of defense for the bulls; the 0.500 retracement level is at 4020.79, and the current price is hovering around this level; the short-term high above is seen at 4029.50; the 0.382 retracement level is at 4052.43, and a break and hold above this level will target the 0.236 retracement level at 4091.57; further up, dense trading volume and historical resistance levels are concentrated around 4130, forming a "strong resistance zone" with the previous swing high of 4154.54. In terms of momentum indicators, the DIFF of MACD (26,12,9) has crossed above the DEA, and the histogram continues to expand, indicating that the momentum after the volume breakout is still being released; RSI (14) is near 62.39, has not yet entered overbought territory, and has room for upward movement. Overall, the downtrend line has been broken upward, and the market is in a technical rebound phase. If 4020.79 is effectively converted into support, the price is expected to advance step by step towards 4052.43 and 4091.57; if it falls back below 4020 and breaks below 3989.15, then we need to be wary of a pullback to the 3972-3910 range, and a deep pullback may retest 3886.51.

20:35:37

Gold's life-or-death situation: Powell may "blindly cut" by 25 basis points, traders are closely watching the 0.5 retracement. Details>

20:35:07

[Fed Decision Preview: Early End of QT May Ignite Short-Selling Opportunities] ⑴ The benchmark 10-year yield rose slightly by about 1 basis point, hovering below the key psychological level of 4%. ⑵ US Treasury Secretary Bessant attempted to break the Japanese government's control over the central bank, emphasizing the importance of policy autonomy. ⑶ If the Fed announces an early end to quantitative tightening, the initial rebound should be seen as a selling opportunity. ⑷ Powell is likely to avoid forward guidance, emphasizing that this rate cut is purely risk management amidst data uncertainty. ⑸ Tactical trading tends to remain neutral, operating within the 4% range of the 10-year yield. ⑹ The expected trading range for the 10-year yield is 4.02% to 3.95%, paying attention to the closing price. ⑺ The federal funds rate target is expected to be lowered by 25 basis points to 3.875%, in line with the expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by 2025. ⑻ The pending home sales index is expected to rise by 1.0% in September, coupled with the 4.0% increase in August, which would be the highest level since March.

20:33:48

[Bank Stocks and Credit Risk Severely Diverge! Hidden Dangers Lurk Behind Market Optimism] ⑴ Valuations of major European and American banks do not reflect signs of credit pressure, contrasting sharply with the increasing number of struggling companies. ⑵ The five largest US banks are trading at an average of 2.2 times forward tangible book value, 58% higher than the 10-year average. ⑶ The six largest European banks are also trading at a 43% premium to their 10-year average, indicating widespread investor optimism. ⑷ Third-quarter earnings reports provide some support: UBS's CFO stated they are not worried about the overall environment. ⑸ Santander and Deutsche Bank both have lower loan loss provisions than the same period last year. ⑹ However, details reveal potential risks: BNP Paribas has set aside €190 million in bad debt provisions for its global markets business. ⑺ Deutsche Bank's investment banking loan loss provisions reached €308 million, more than double last year. ⑻ Slowly rising unemployment rates in the US, UK, and Germany typically push up mortgage and credit card losses.

20:29:53

[Euro Surges to 0.88 Against Pound! Bank of England Rate Cut Expectations Trigger Market Earthquake] ⑴ The euro/pound exchange rate broke through the 0.8800 mark, setting a new annual high. ⑵ Continued concerns about the UK budget weighed on the pound's performance, with fiscal uncertainty posing a major pressure. ⑶ The market is positioning itself for a possible unexpected rate cut by the Bank of England. ⑷ Goldman Sachs' latest forecast has shifted to expecting a rate cut in November, reinforcing market expectations of easing. ⑸ Although the likelihood of a rate cut before the budget is low, policy risks cannot be completely ruled out. ⑹ The daily relative strength index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, indicating accumulating short-term downward pressure. ⑺ The risk-reward ratio is becoming unfavorable for establishing new long positions, significantly increasing the risk of chasing highs. ⑻ Buying on dips is a more preferable trading strategy; the market is bullish but technical corrections should be watched for.

20:27:56

BlackRock (BLK.N) and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) continue to drive strategic growth for BlackRock's Riyadh investment management platform. BlackRock will launch a mutual fund focusing on Saudi systemically active equities and Middle East and North Africa fixed income.

20:27:32

Mexico's Economy Minister: Negotiations with the United States are progressing. He has met with U.S. Trade Representative Greer.

20:22:55

[US Electric Spends $72 Billion! Capital Expenditure Surges, Boosting Stock Price 3.2%] ⑴ US Electric's pre-market stock price rose 3.2% to $118.80, as a significant increase in capital expenditure plans boosted market confidence. ⑵ The five-year capital expenditure plan surged from $54 billion to $72 billion, an increase of $18 billion. ⑶ The massive investment aims to meet unprecedented electricity demand growth, highlighting the industry's long-term positive outlook. ⑷ Third-quarter total revenue increased by nearly 11% year-on-year to $6.01 billion, demonstrating strong revenue growth. ⑸ Adjusted earnings per share were $1.80, slightly below the market expectation of $1.81, but the impact was offset by the capital plan. ⑹ As of the previous trading day, the stock had accumulated a 24.8% gain this year, significantly outperforming the broader market index. ⑺ The aggressive expansion of capital expenditure reflects the company's extreme optimism about the electricity demand outlook, which is expected to drive development across the entire industry chain. ⑻ The strong stock performance shows that investors recognize its long-term strategic layout and are willing to tolerate slight short-term profit underperformance.

20:22:54

[ADP Data May Damage Fed Confidence in December Rate Cut] Market analyst Giuseppe stated that yesterday, ADP released its four-week U.S. employment data ending October 11, 2025, showing an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, meaning approximately 57,000 jobs were added during those four weeks. The Dallas Fed estimated in early October that the current break-even point was around 30,000 jobs per month, while 57,000 is significantly higher. Given the lack of government data, the strong rebound in ADP data could make Fed Chairman Powell more cautious in hinting at a December rate cut. If so, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise and would significantly impact the market. Furthermore, Waller, one of the most dovish Fed governors and a candidate for Fed Chair, has also stated that ADP data is one of his reasons for supporting a rate cut. Recently, he stated, "I still believe in a rate cut, but we need to be cautious about it."

20:20:13

The bond market is "anchored" to everything: the dollar's resilience and gold's unusual movements are all waiting for Powell's starting gun. Details>

20:20:01

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian armed forces struck energy facilities that support the operation of Ukraine's military-industrial complex and a train carrying weapons and equipment for the Ukrainian army.

20:18:23

[Institution: Bank of Canada to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points; Macklem Expected to Offer No Specific Guidance] Investinglive analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the lower end of its estimated neutral rate range (2.25%-3.25%). The market still believes the Bank of Canada is likely to end this rate-cutting cycle at 2.00% sometime in 2026. At the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is not expected to provide any specific forward guidance. Recent expectations of a rate cut have solidified, mainly due to Macklem's previous dovish comments and the renewed tensions between the US and Canada over tariffs. While we know the US and Canada will eventually reconcile, this risk should, for now, give the Bank of Canada reason to be dovish. If the Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise, and the Canadian dollar should strengthen across the board. However, in the current context, surprising the market may not be a good thing for the bank.

20:14:42

Indian Oil Minister: Further purchases of Russian crude oil have been suspended.

20:11:34

Ukrainian military: Attacked two Russian oil refineries and a gas processing plant at night.

20:07:26

Saudi Tourism Minister: The industry is growing at a near double-digit rate, and this is normal when you start an industry.

20:07:11

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal: India and the EU are working to reach a balanced trade agreement.

20:06:19

Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal: India and the EU have made significant progress in trade negotiations.

20:05:09

The U.S. secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) rose to 4.31%, a new high since before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 17.

20:02:34

[Standard Bank: 10-Year US Treasury Yield to Reach 5% Due to High Inflation] Standard Bank strategist Steven Barrow stated that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% "over the next year or so" as inflation will "persistently and significantly exceed target levels." Barrow cited tariffs and a tight labor market as contributing to inflationary pressures.

20:01:46

IBM (IBM.N) announced the launch of a defense-focused artificial intelligence model to accelerate mission planning and decision support.

20:00:17

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Believes peace will be achieved before the next international investment forum.

19:59:24

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We are on the road to peace.

19:57:17

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear power plant was successfully started during the Poseidon test, and the device "operated for a period of time."

19:56:52

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Looking forward to providing Russian energy for numerous global artificial intelligence infrastructure projects.

19:56:01

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We have the opportunity to discuss (with Saudi Arabia) how to jointly develop liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. Artificial intelligence and infrastructure projects hold enormous opportunities.

19:55:38

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is about to deploy the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. There is no way to intercept the Poseidon. The Poseidon is far more powerful than the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is our most favored.

19:54:55

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: We have the opportunity to discuss with Saudi Arabia how to jointly develop liquefied natural gas (LNG) business.

19:53:30

The CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) stated that sanctions on Russian oil would drive up US gasoline prices, and that the Saudi Crown Prince made a significant commitment to invest with the RDIF during his visit to Russia. Any potential revisions to the Spanish acquisition law must address efficiency issues.

19:52:33

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia conducted a test launch of the Poseidon nuclear submarine missile, and the test of the Poseidon nuclear submarine equipped with a nuclear power plant was a great success.

19:51:06

[Germany Sets 2025 Minimum Wage and Announces Phased Increase Plan] ⑴ The German government announced that the minimum hourly wage will be €12.82 in 2025, with plans to raise it to €14.60 in two phases by 2027. ⑵ The first increase will be implemented in early 2026, at which time the minimum wage will rise to €13.90. ⑶ This adjustment plan follows the recommendations of a government-appointed committee of employers and trade union representatives. ⑷ This plan is lower than the €15 hourly wage target for 2026 advocated by the conservative-socialist coalition led by Chancellor Merz. ⑸ The increase plan has drawn criticism, with warnings that higher labor costs could jeopardize employment. ⑹ This is especially relevant after two years of economic contraction, with the number of unemployed exceeding 3 million for the first time in a decade in August, only slightly falling below that level in September.

19:50:41

[India's Sensex Hits One-Year High, Energy and Metals Stocks Lead Gains] ⑴ India's Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex closed up 0.4% at 84,997 points on Wednesday, its highest closing level since September 2024, rebounding from yesterday's decline. ⑵ Energy and metals stocks led the gains, primarily driven by optimism surrounding trade negotiations. ⑶ Market sentiment also benefited from strong domestic data, continued foreign capital inflows, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. ⑷ Tuesday's data showed that India's industrial production grew by 4% year-on-year in September 2025, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.6%. ⑸ Reports that US President Trump may soon finalize a long-delayed trade agreement with India further boosted the market. ⑹ In terms of individual stocks, National Thermal Power, Grid Corporation of India, Adani Ports, HCL Technology, and Tata Steel led the gains, with increases ranging from 1.7% to 3.1%. ⑺ Bharat Electronics, Eternal, Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, and Bajaji Financial lagged behind, with declines ranging from 0.9% to 1.4%.

19:49:36

[Portugal's Unemployment Rate Rises Slightly to 6.0% in September] ⑴ Portugal's unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.0% in September 2025, with the previous figure revised down to 5.9%. ⑵ The unemployment rate reached a five-year low of 5.8% in July. ⑶ The total number of unemployed increased by 4,300 to 337,200. ⑷ The number of employed people increased by 9,400, reaching a record high of 5,287,000. ⑸ The employment rate and labor force participation rate reached record highs of 65.7% and 69.9% respectively. ⑹ The underutilization rate of the labor force rose slightly to 10.2%, from 10.1% previously. ⑺ This indicator covers the unemployed, those awaiting employment, and part-time workers seeking full-time work.

19:49:16

[Italy's Industrial Producer Inflation Accelerated in September] ⑴ Italy's industrial producer price index (PPI) rose 1.1% year-on-year in September 2025, a significant acceleration from the eight-month low of 0.2% in August. ⑵ Domestic producer price growth accelerated, rising 1.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by a 3.0% increase in pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical costs. ⑶ Foreign market prices rose 0.4% year-on-year, with both the Eurozone and non-Eurozone sectors recording growth. ⑷ Within the Eurozone, the main contributors were food, beverages, tobacco, and transport equipment, rising 6.1% and 4.4% respectively. ⑸ Outside the Eurozone, the main contributors were other manufacturing and machinery maintenance and installation, rising 5.3%. ⑹ Excluding energy, the producer inflation rate slightly decreased to 0.8% from 0.9%. ⑺ Seasonally adjusted, producer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.6% decrease in the previous month.

19:48:50

[Average Monthly Salary of Cypriot Employees Increased by 4.2% in Q2] ⑴ In the second quarter of 2025, the average total monthly income of employees in Cyprus increased by 4.2% year-on-year to €2,476, compared to a 4.9% increase in the previous quarter. ⑵ Male employees' salaries increased by 3.8% to €2,656, while female employees' salaries increased by 4.7% to €2,251. ⑶ After seasonal adjustment, quarter-on-quarter wages increased by 0.9% to €2,583.

19:48:43

[South Korea and the US Reach Trade Agreement; South Korea to Invest $350 Billion in the US] According to foreign media reports, after months of negotiations, the United States and South Korea have finally reached a trade agreement. South Korea will invest $150 billion in the US for shipbuilding, and the $350 billion investment includes $200 billion in installments in cash. The investment cap is $20 billion per year. Both Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung praised the strength of the alliance. Trump stated that the US and South Korea are "married," while Lee Myung-bak awarded him South Korea's highest medal and presented him with a replica of a Silla-era gold crown. Furthermore, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged Trump to allow South Korea to secure nuclear fuel supplies for its submarines and to amend a decades-old nuclear energy agreement. He emphasized that South Korea does not intend to build submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons, but rather to replace its "outdated" diesel-powered vessels. In addition, a South Korean presidential advisor stated that the US will maintain its 15% tariff on all South Korean goods, while tariffs on automobiles will be reduced to 15%, and South Korea will receive most-favored-nation treatment on pharmaceutical tariffs.

19:47:10

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear technology used in the Burevestnik spacecraft will be used in the lunar program.

19:46:54

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: About 40% of our trade is settled in rubles, while the proportion of exports settled in dollars and euros has dropped to 18%.

19:46:16

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear reactor installed on the "Burevestnik" can be started "within minutes and seconds".

19:45:07

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Once we resolve the political issues with the US, American and European companies will return to Russia.

19:44:01

The CEO of Santander Bank in Spain stated that issuing mortgages at rates below 2% in Spain is meaningless; growth in this sector must be profitable.

19:43:47

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: OPEC+'s commitment to global security and energy security

19:43:13

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is ready to allow journalists into the blockaded areas inhabited by Ukrainian troops, and Ukraine's political leaders must decide the fate of their besieged citizens. (Regarding the Burevestnik missile launch) Russia can be proud of its scientists.

19:40:43

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The enemies in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk have been blockaded and surrounded.

19:39:16

Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad: I will discuss a possible trip to Washington with Brazilian President Lula today.

19:38:26

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russian forces are advancing across Ukraine.

19:36:16

[Boeing Suffers $5.39 Billion Loss, 777X Delayed Deliveries Trigger $4.9 Billion Impairment] ⑴ Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of $7.14 per share, with an adjusted loss of $7.47 per share, far exceeding the expected $4.59. ⑵ The quarterly net loss of $5.339 billion was primarily dragged down by $4.9 billion in costs related to the 777X aircraft certification delay. ⑶ Revenue of $23.27 billion exceeded market expectations of $21.972 billion, demonstrating the resilience of its core business. ⑷ Operating cash flow remained positive at $1.123 billion, providing necessary financial support for business operations. ⑸ 737 monthly production remained stable at 38 aircraft, with an agreement reached with the Federal Aviation Administration in October to increase it to 42. ⑹ The 777-9 certification timeline was updated, with first deliveries expected to be delayed until 2027. ⑺ The company emphasized that despite the delays, the 777X continued to perform well in flight tests. (8) The huge impairment losses masked the better-than-expected revenue performance, reflecting the serious challenges in project management.

19:35:40

[Media: South Korea-US-Japan Foreign Ministers' Meeting Cancelled, Possibly Due to Trump's "Late Arrival"] According to Yonhap News Agency, the foreign ministers of South Korea, the United States, and Japan were originally scheduled to meet separately on the 29th during the APEC Gyeongju Summit, but the arrangements were ultimately cancelled. The report stated that analysts believe that US President Trump's arrival in South Korea an hour later than planned, along with the postponement of his attendance at the APEC CEO Summit and the South Korea-US summit, forced the cancellation of the South Korea-US-Japan foreign ministers' meeting.

19:34:12

Santander CEO: The acquisition of TSB Bank is expected to be approved and completed in the first quarter of 2026.

19:34:05

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1599.90/ounce, up 1.83% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1600.4/ounce, up 0.98% on the day.

19:33:20

Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó stated on the 29th that the EU is gripped by war fever and preparing for war, therefore it wants to provide Ukraine with nearly 200 billion euros for weapons and national operations.

19:33:10

[USD/CAD Technical Analysis] The hourly chart shows that the exchange rate has fallen from 1.4037 and is moving along the descending trendline. A long bearish candle broke through the static level of 1.3958, finding support at 1.3923, and is currently consolidating around 1.3940. The two purple horizontal lines on the chart mark 1.3980 and 1.3958 respectively; the former is the first short-term resistance, while the latter has turned from support to resistance. The sloping trendline intersects with the price near 1.3960, showing a significant resistance effect. In terms of indicators, the MACD (26,12,9) shows DIF at -0.0009, DEA at -0.0011, and the histogram at 0.0004. The DIF has slightly crossed above the DEA but remains below the zero line, indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened but not reversed. The RSI is around 42, having previously rebounded from around 30 but failing to return to the neutral zone, suggesting the rebound is mainly a technical correction. If it breaks above 1.3958 and stands above the trend line, the target is 1.3980; conversely, if it falls below 1.3923 with high volume, the psychological level of 1.3900 will be tested.

19:32:39

Boeing sets aside $4.9 billion in charges due to delays in its latest 777X jet.

19:32:08

The Bank of Canada's 25-basis-point rate cut is already a given; will the Canadian dollar live or die? Details>

19:31:16

Brazil's monthly rate of bank lending in September

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

19:28:35

[Russian Crude Oil Exports Not Yet Hindered, New Sanctions May Have Lagging Effects] ⑴ New US and EU sanctions against Russian oil giants have not yet substantially affected physical crude oil shipments from the country's western ports. ⑵ October exports from western ports such as Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk are estimated at approximately 2.33 million barrels per day. ⑶ This figure is in line with Russia's revised monthly plan, despite weather restrictions and sanctions pressure. ⑷ The US-set November 21 deadline requires the termination of all transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil. ⑸ The approximately four-week voyage from Baltic ports to Indian refineries presents logistical and financial risks, and currently loaded cargoes will miss the deadline. ⑹ Indian refiners have not yet decided how to handle already purchased Russian oil, and major customers such as Reliance Industries are assessing the contract impact. ⑺ Payment issues may arise, with Russian sellers unwilling to accept rupee settlements, exacerbating transaction complexity. ⑻ The market expects Russian oil sales to shift towards intermediaries and trading companies, which will increase seller costs but buffer buyer risks.

19:22:03

[Middle East Crude Oil Falls to New May Low as Oversupply Looms Over Market] ⑴ The premium for Middle East crude oil benchmarks Dubai and Murban fell on Wednesday as concerns about supply disruptions caused by sanctions on Russian oil producers eased. ⑵ Western sanctions on top Russian producers pushed up benchmark prices last week, but cooled as demand for Middle Eastern grades from India remained limited. ⑶ The cash Dubai to swap premium fell 33 cents to 67 cents per barrel, reflecting increased market supply pressure. ⑷ Murban crude prices fell to a five-month low as the market refocused on ample supply from planned production increases by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries. ⑸ The CEO of Saudi Aramco emphasized that crude oil demand was already strong before the sanctions, and that Chinese demand remains healthy. ⑹ Indian state-owned refiner Mangalore explicitly stated that it has no plans to purchase Russian oil due to risk concerns. ⑺ Iranian crude oil discounts to China widened to their widest level in a year, with independent refineries facing pressure from both import quota shortages and sanctions.

19:18:18

[Copper Prices Surge to Record High of $11,146 as Supply Crisis Erupts] ⑴ Copper prices hit a record high of $11,146 per tonne on Wednesday, driven by a worsening supply shortage. ⑵ Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $11,095, having climbed as much as 1% in early trading, surpassing the previous record of $11,104.50 set in May 2024. ⑶ Mining giant Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance to 850,000-875,000 tons, down from 850,000-890,000 tons previously, exacerbating supply concerns. ⑷ Anglo American also reported a decline in copper production for the first nine months of 2025 on Tuesday, further escalating market supply tensions. ⑸ Analysts pointed out that cumulative production cuts could push the copper market into a supply deficit state in 2025. ⑹ Aluminum prices rose 0.5% to $2,902, reaching a high of $2,917, the highest level since May 2022. (7) Zinc prices rose 1% to $3,087, a new high since December last year, with the spot price trading at a premium of $170 over the three-month contract. (8) LME zinc inventories were only 35,200 tonnes, close to the lowest level since March 2023, highlighting the tight short-term metal supply.

19:14:40

[German Machinery Severely Hit, 56% of US Exports Face Catastrophic Tariffs] ⑴ The German Engineering Federation (DEF) warns that if the US expands its tariff list in December, 56% of German and European machinery exports will be impacted. ⑵ This percentage has risen significantly from 40% in August, covering almost all branches of mechanical engineering. ⑶ The DEF, representing 3,600 mechanical engineering companies, has conveyed its concerns to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. ⑷ The US Department of Commerce initiated procedures in October to include more products in its steel and aluminum tariff list, with a deadline of early December. ⑸ If the recommendations are adopted, steel and aluminum materials for approximately 200 types of engineering products will face a 50% import tariff. ⑹ Misrepresenting the value or origin of materials could result in punitive tariffs of up to 200%. ⑺ Tariffs bring complex bureaucratic requirements that could disrupt supply chains and ultimately affect US consumers. ⑻ European machinery is widely used in key sectors such as US aerospace, weapons systems, and semiconductor manufacturing.

19:12:48

[Strong Refining Margins Rebound, Phillips 66's Better-than-Expected Results Ignite the Sector] ⑴ Phillips 66's third-quarter profit exceeded Wall Street expectations, primarily driven by strong refining margins. ⑵ US refinery quarterly profit margins have jumped by an average of about 25% from multi-year lows, indicating a clear industry recovery. ⑶ The company's profit margin rose 46% from $8.31 per barrel in the same period last year to $12.15 per barrel. ⑷ Adjusted earnings in the refining division reached $430 million, turning around from a loss of $67 million in the same period last year. ⑸ Adjusted earnings per share were $2.52, significantly exceeding the average analyst expectation of $2.17. ⑹ Profit margins of top US refiners are continuing to recover from last year's lows, indicating a significant improvement in industry sentiment. ⑺ Valero Energy's better-than-expected results last week also confirm the overall recovery trend in the refining sector.

19:12:44

[US Mortgage Applications Rebound] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage applications surged 7.1% in the week ending October 17 compared to the previous week. ⑵ This reversed a four-week decline. ⑶ The rebound in applications coincides with the benchmark mortgage rate falling to a one-year low of 6.3%. ⑷ The rate decline was primarily due to a bleak labor market outlook and concerns about an economic slowdown, which depressed long-term Treasury yields. ⑸ Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes, surged 9% that week. ⑹ Home purchase mortgage applications followed suit, increasing by 5%.

19:12:24

[US Mortgage Rates Fall to One-Year Low, Stimulating Demand Recovery] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows that the average contracted interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.3% in the week ending October 24, down from 6.37% previously. ⑵ Mortgage rates have fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level since September 2024. ⑶ The decline in rates was mainly due to the continued drop in Treasury yields, and a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index report reinforced market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. ⑷ The association's vice president stated that the decline in rates drove a second consecutive week of growth in refinancing activity, primarily driven by traditional refinancing applications. ⑸ Mortgage applications surged by 9.3%, with home purchase applications increasing by 4.5% and refinancing applications surging by 9.3%.

19:11:30

[US Stock Futures Rise Slightly Awaiting Tech Giant Earnings and Fed Decision] ⑴ US stock index futures rose slightly on Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Dow futures up nearly 100 points. ⑵ The three major indexes had previously closed at record highs for three consecutive trading days. ⑶ Nvidia rose about 3% in pre-market trading. ⑷ If the rally continues, the AI leader could become the first publicly traded company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. ⑸ Traders are awaiting key earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet after the market closes; the three companies rose 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.6% respectively in pre-market trading. ⑹ Verizon Communications rose 2% after reiterating its full-year outlook, while Caterpillar jumped 4.7% on strong third-quarter sales. ⑺ Despite better-than-expected earnings, CVS shares fell more than 3%. ⑻ The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later today.

19:10:48

[Latvia's Retail Sales Growth Slows in September] ⑴ Latvia's retail sales in September 2025 increased by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown from the previously revised 4.4% growth. ⑵ After seasonal adjustment, retail trade in September decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, reversing the previously revised 0.9% growth. ⑶ This month-on-month decline ended three consecutive months of growth.

19:07:08

[US Mortgage Applications Rebound Significantly Week-on-Week] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage applications rose 7.1% week-on-week in the week ending October 24, compared to a 0.3% decrease in the previous week. ⑵ The Market Index rose to 338.7, up from 316.2 in the previous week. ⑶ The Home Purchase Index rose to 164.3, up from 157.3 in the previous week. ⑷ The Refinancing Index rose to 1327.8, up from 1214.7 in the previous week. ⑸ The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.30%, up from 6.37% in the previous week. ⑹ This data typically has a limited impact on the market; mortgage application volume is generally negatively correlated with mortgage rates.

19:05:29

Italy's PPI monthly rate for September

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

19:05:29

Italy's PPI year-on-year rate in September

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

19:04:56

[Preview of the Fed's October Interest Rate Decision] ⑴ The market widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%-4.00%, and announce the end of quantitative tightening. ⑵ The first two paragraphs of the policy statement may be revised to acknowledge the recovery in economic activity. ⑶ The wording in the employment and inflation sections may remain unchanged, but the phrase "inflation has risen" may be removed. ⑷ The statement may mention the uncertainty caused by the lack of key data due to the government shutdown. ⑸ The third paragraph will update the target range for interest rates, with the quantitative tightening section expected to see the biggest change. ⑹ The final paragraph is expected to show that Governor Milan dissented, advocating a 50 basis point rate cut. ⑺ Governor Schmid may advocate keeping interest rates unchanged, consistent with his hawkish stance. ⑻ Since no summary of economic projections will be released, market focus will be on the press conference. ⑼ Fed Chairman Powell is expected to again frame the rate cut as a risk management measure. ⑽ Given the lack of key data, its statements may remain cautious, avoiding excessive forward guidance.

19:04:10

[Austria's October Manufacturing PMI Rises to 48.8] ⑴ The Austrian UniCredit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.8 in October from 47.6 in September. ⑵ Output increased for the third time in four months, as companies maintained production levels by processing backlogged orders. ⑶ New orders declined only slightly, marking the slowest contraction in three and a half years, with initial signs of improvement in domestic and international demand. ⑷ Export sales showed a similar trend, declining slightly amid signals of stable demand from major European trading partners. ⑸ Employment contracted at a faster pace, the sharpest decline since March, as manufacturers continued to adjust their workforce based on overall workload reductions. ⑹ Business confidence improved significantly, reaching its highest level since early 2022, mainly due to expectations of a gradual recovery in domestic and international market conditions.

19:02:52

[UK Mortgage Approvals Hit Nine-Month High in September] ⑴ Net mortgage approvals in the UK rose by 1,000 to 65,900 in September 2025, the highest level in nine months and exceeding market expectations of 64,000. ⑵ Refinance approvals decreased by 600 to 37,200; this indicator only tracks refinancing transactions involving different lenders. ⑶ The "effective" interest rate on newly issued mortgages fell by 7 basis points to 4.19%, the lowest since January 2023. ⑷ The interest rate on newly issued mortgages continued its downward trend since March 2025. ⑸ The interest rate on outstanding mortgages remained unchanged at 3.89%.

19:02:27

[UK Net Consumer Credit Financing Falls to Lowest Level Since May in September] ⑴ UK net personal consumer credit financing in September 2025 was £1.49 billion, down from the revised £1.75 billion in August, marking the lowest level since May. ⑵ Net financing for other forms of consumer credit, such as car dealer financing and personal loans, fell to £800 million, from £1 billion previously. ⑶ Net credit card financing remained largely unchanged from August at £700 million. ⑷ The annual growth rate of all consumer credit rose slightly to 7.3% in September from 7.2% in August. ⑸ The annual growth rate of credit card borrowing rose to 10.8% over the same period from 10.5%. ⑹ The annual growth rate of other forms of consumer credit fell slightly to 5.7% from 5.8%.

19:02:00

[UK Net Mortgage Financing Rises to Six-Month High in September] ⑴ Net personal mortgage financing in the UK increased by £1.2 billion in September, reaching a total of £5.5 billion, the highest level since March. ⑵ The annual growth rate of net mortgage financing rose to 3.2% in September from 3.0% in August, the highest growth rate since January 2023. ⑶ Total mortgage disbursements in September amounted to £24.9 billion, up from £23 billion in the previous month. ⑷ Total mortgage repayments rose slightly to £20.3 billion in September from £20 billion in August.

19:01:36

[Swiss Investor Confidence Index Rebounds Significantly] ⑴ The Swiss investor confidence index rose 38.7 points month-on-month to -7.7 in October 2025. ⑵ UBS Group noted that this is one of the largest increases in the index's history, second only to the surges during the financial crisis and the pandemic. ⑶ Despite the rebound, the 39% tariff imposed by the US on Swiss exports in August continued to dampen market sentiment. ⑷ The US accounts for approximately 17% of Switzerland's total exports, making it Switzerland's largest export market. ⑸ Meanwhile, the current conditions index remained neutral at 0, a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.6. ⑹ This reflects a still weak assessment of the current economic situation.

19:00:49

[Belgium's GDP Accelerated Slightly in the Third Quarter] ⑴ Preliminary data shows that Belgium's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025, a slight acceleration from the previous quarter's 0.2%. ⑵ Most sectors experienced expansion, with industry growing by 0.2%, construction by 1.3%, and services by 0.4%. ⑶ On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 1.1%, higher than the 1.0% in the second quarter.

19:00:30

[Montenegro's Tourist Arrivals Up 8.4% in September] ⑴ Montenegro received 189,447 tourists in September 2025, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.7% in the previous month. ⑵ Foreign tourists dominated overnight stays, accounting for 92.2%, while domestic tourists accounted for 7.8%. ⑶ European tourists accounted for the highest proportion at 74.5%, with major source countries including Serbia (12.4%), the UK (7.3%), and Germany (6.5%). ⑷ Major markets outside Europe included Israel (9.1%) and the US (3%). ⑸ By resort type, seaside resorts accounted for the highest proportion of overnight stays at 89.7%. ⑹ The capital region accounted for 5.6%, mountain resorts for 2.9%, and other resorts for 1.8%.

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending October 24

Previous : 316.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 338.70

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : 1214.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 1327.80

19:00:06

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending October 24 week-on-week

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.10%

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : 157.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 164.30

19:00:03

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending October 24

Previous : 6.37% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30%

18:52:44

With a multitude of negative factors pushing the price to a three-month low, when will palm oil see a technical rebound? Details>

18:50:21

[Palm Oil Breaks Down, Soybean Oil and Crude Oil Prices Trigger Technical Breakdown] ⑴ Palm oil futures closed lower, mainly dragged down by the weakening prices of soybean oil and crude oil. ⑵ The January delivery contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 65 ringgit to 4252 ringgit per tonne. ⑶ Traders confirmed key technical support at 4200 ringgit per tonne and resistance at 4350 ringgit per tonne. ⑷ Current prices are approaching a key support area, and the market faces a directional choice. ⑸ Weak demand and increased production are putting pressure on palm oil prices this week. ⑹ The weak performance of the soybean oil market has been transmitted to the palm oil market through the substitution effect. ⑺ The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the attractiveness of biodiesel, indirectly affecting the demand outlook for palm oil. ⑻ Technical and fundamental factors are resonating with a bearish sentiment, and the market focus is on testing the effectiveness of support levels.

18:49:08

[Asian Fuel Oil Price Decline Intensifies! Spot Discounts Widen into Deep Negative Range] ⑴ The spot price spreads for high-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil continued to decline on Wednesday, indicating further weakening of the market structure. ⑵ The futures-spot price spreads for both 180cc and 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil have fallen into deeper discount ranges, with traders continuing to sell. ⑶ Spot prices for 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil have declined in tandem, with ample supply being the main reason for market weakness. ⑷ The ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil market has also softened, with Malaysia's PrefChem adding an atmospheric residue supply for November loading. ⑸ This 540,000-barrel shipment is expected to be loaded on November 13-14, with bidding closing later this week. ⑹ The Singapore 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread has deteriorated sharply to a discount of over $4.50 per barrel. ⑺ The ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil crack spread has fallen back to a premium of less than $6 per barrel, a recent low. (8) Fujairah's heavy fuel oil inventories plummeted 23.8% to 6.49 million barrels, but this failed to reverse the bearish sentiment in the market.

18:42:54

[German Bond Yields Trapped in Range-Bound Trading, 2.60% Becomes Key Defense Line for Bulls and Bears] ⑴ MFS Investment Management maintains a neutral stance as long as the 10-year German government bond yield hovers around 2.60%. ⑵ Tradeweb data shows the 10-year German bond yield recently rose 0.5 basis points to 2.625%. ⑶ The company expects the 10-year German bond yield to trade within a range of 2.40% to 2.80%. ⑷ Assuming no major changes in fundamentals, this range assessment will remain valid. ⑸ MFS expects the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. ⑹ The company believes the December meeting is more noteworthy as it will provide more economic data to support its decisions. ⑺ The European Central Bank will release its latest forecast report in December, including a long-term outlook for 2028. ⑻ The head of developed market sovereign debt research points out that more comprehensive data will provide a clearer policy path.

18:40:39

[German Bond Demand Recovers! €3.38 Billion Issuance Reflects Rising Safe-Haven Sentiment] ⑴ The Bundesbank successfully issued €3.378 billion in 10-year enhanced federal bonds with a yield of 2.60%. ⑵ The average yield in this auction was 2.62%, a significant decrease of 10 basis points from the previous issuance's 2.72%. ⑶ The bid-to-cover ratio reached 1.3 times, better than the previous 1.2 times, indicating improved market demand. ⑷ The decline in yield reflects the continued rise in market enthusiasm for high-quality, safe assets. ⑸ The increased bid-to-cover ratio indicates a gradual recovery in investor confidence in core Eurozone country bonds. ⑹ In the current environment of market uncertainty, German government bonds continue to serve as a safe haven. ⑺ This successful issuance has laid a stable foundation for the Eurozone sovereign bond market, attracting conservative investment.

18:29:50

South Korean Presidential Advisor: Agreed to only proceed with projects that are commercially viable. Agreed to split profits 50/50 until initial investment is recovered. Agreement reached on tools to minimize investment losses. Successfully prevented further opening of the agricultural market. A breakthrough in the trade agreement will improve the trade environment for South Korean businesses.

18:29:30

South Korean presidential advisor: $350 billion investment in the US includes $200 billion in cash payments in installments.

44

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3993.95	-7.21 (-0.18%)
XAG	47.902	-0.157 (-0.33%)
CONC	60.26	-0.79 (-1.29%)
OILC	64.09	-0.72 (-1.12%)
USD	99.907	0.043 (0.04%)
EURUSD	1.1515	-0.0004 (-0.03%)
GBPUSD	1.3085	-0.0054 (-0.41%)
USDCNH	7.1254	0.0010 (0.01%)

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