2026-04-06 Monday
2026-04-10
12:26:35
[Singapore Monetary Authority May Significantly Tighten Monetary Policy in April] 1. The market expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to raise the slope of the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate policy band in April, potentially by 50 basis points to 1.0%, and may take similar tightening measures again in July. 2. Inflationary pressures from rising energy prices, coupled with continued strong economic growth, provide support for policy tightening. Singapore's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, with growth momentum continuing into 2026. 3. Core inflation rose 1.4% year-on-year in February, higher than the median forecast, while the overall inflation rate was 1.2%. The MAS has raised its 2026 inflation forecast range from 0.5%–1.5% to 1.0%–2.0%, mainly considering rising labor and energy costs. 4. Analysts estimate that if oil prices break through US$100 per barrel, it could push core inflation up by 0.5 percentage points. Although the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and electricity demand have shown resilience, persistently high oil prices will continue to put pressure on the economic outlook.
12:06:58
[Qingming Festival Holiday Sees Return Peak, Cross-Regional Travel Expected to Reach 840 Million Trips] Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that during the three-day holiday, the total cross-regional travel volume is expected to reach 840 million trips. Passenger volumes on the first day of the holiday for railways, highways, and civil aviation all exceeded historical peaks for the same period. Today, the national railway is expected to transport 20.8 million passengers, with 1,369 additional passenger trains planned. Regarding highways, the return traffic pressure on expressways in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta region is expected to be high today. The nationwide toll-free period for passenger vehicles with seven seats or less on expressways ends at 24:00 today. Civil aviation is expected to transport 1.94 million passengers today, and waterway passenger volume is expected to exceed 1.11 million. The Ministry of Transport stated that this year, many primary and secondary schools across the country have combined their spring break with the Qingming Festival holiday, leading to a surge in parent-child and family travel, forming a full-chain consumption scenario covering transportation services, cultural tourism accommodation, catering retail, and energy replenishment. Latest data shows that during the Qingming Festival holiday, the total number of inter-regional trips is expected to reach 840 million, averaging 280 million per day, an increase of approximately 6% year-on-year. The number of trips on the first day of the holiday exceeded 300 million, a 4.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Both railway and highway passenger volumes on the first day exceeded historical peaks for the same period. (CCTV)
11:48:35
[Iranian War Oil Shock Spreads to Asia, Europe and Africa Face Similar Dilemmas] (1) According to the Wall Street Journal, the oil shock triggered by the Iranian war has spread to Asia, with local factories reducing production to conserve energy and some gas stations limiting refueling. Economists say this foreshadows similar dilemmas for European and African countries that also rely on Middle Eastern imports. (2) Data from Oxford Economics shows that the global oil supply gap reached 10% after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Asia, due to its geographical proximity to the Gulf and low domestic energy reserves, was the first to suffer severe energy constraints; only a few countries, such as Japan and South Korea, hold large-scale buffer stocks. (3) Trump said that the US military operation may gradually end in about three weeks, but the end of the war does not mean that the Strait will reopen immediately. Shipping delays and facility damage will further drag down the supply. Europe and Africa face extremely high risks, while the United States, as a net energy exporter, is less likely to experience a shortage.
11:16:57
[Trump's Budget Reshapes Government Vision, But Fails to Reduce Huge Deficit] (1) Trump is reshaping the way the federal government's revenue and expenditure are managed, but overall, it has done almost nothing to curb the huge deficit. In his first year back in the White House, he did reduce the deficit by raising tariffs, cutting more than 200,000 federal employees, and reducing Medicaid and nutrition assistance. (2) However, the other end of the bill is also filled with huge expenditures: Republicans extended and superimposed tax cuts, allocated hundreds of billions of dollars to military and immigration enforcement, and needed to replenish weapons reserves for the war in Iran. The fiscal year 2027 budget outline increases defense spending by 42% and cuts non-defense spending by 10%, promoting the vision of "high tariffs, low taxes". (3) The overall fiscal path is worrying: the ratio of public debt to GDP is close to 100%, and annual interest payments have exceeded military spending. The Congressional Budget Office expects the deficit rate to be no less than 5.6% over the next decade. Trump has not addressed the biggest drivers of the deficit, such as Social Security and Medicare, and many spending cut proposals have been blocked in Congress, making it difficult to eliminate the deficit pressure.
10:39:43
[Japanese Opposition Parties and Citizens Rally Against Takashi City Government's Easing of Restrictions on Arms Exports] Several high-ranking members of Japan's opposition parties and a large number of citizens held a rally in front of Ikebukuro Station in Tokyo on the evening of the 5th to protest the Takashi Sanae government's easing of restrictions on Japanese arms exports and its dangerous policies, including large-scale military expansion, expressing their concerns about Japan's future path. According to the protest organizers, more than 6,000 people participated in the protest that evening. Protesters held signs reading "Force Cannot Bring Peace" and "Takashi Resign," chanting "Oppose War" and "Protect Peace," protesting the Japanese government's shift in security policy. Opposition party members at the scene pointed out in their speeches that Japan's arms exports to foreign countries could fuel international conflict and violate the pacifist principles established by the Constitution; on this basis, the government's current push for military expansion, the anti-espionage law, and the establishment of a national intelligence agency, among other dangerous policies, is gradually leading Japan onto the path of war preparation. (Xinhua)
10:29:23
Spot gold has just broken through the $4,660.00/oz mark, currently trading at $4,659.64/oz, down 0.34% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,685.80/oz, up 0.13% on the day; Spot platinum has just broken through the $1,980.00/oz mark, currently trading at $1,979.75/oz, down 0.49% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1,987.4/oz, up 0.21% on the day.
10:26:52
[Iranian Parliament Deliberates Proposals on Governing the Strait of Hormuz] According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on April 5, the Iranian Islamic Parliament deliberated on several proposals regarding the governance of the Strait of Hormuz, discussing related issues from legal, environmental, security, and economic perspectives. The meeting unanimously agreed to establish a special committee for subsequent work and to ultimately formulate a comprehensive plan and legal safeguards for exercising jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. On March 30, the Iranian Islamic Parliament's National Security Committee approved a Strait of Hormuz management plan, establishing the controlling role of the Iranian armed forces and explicitly prohibiting vessels from the United States, Israel, and countries imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran from passing through the strait. The plan also includes provisions on shipping safety, environmental protection, financial arrangements, and tariff systems, as well as cooperation with Oman across the strait within a legal framework. (CCTV International News)
10:10:22
[US, Iran, and mediators discuss 45-day ceasefire agreement; Trump extends deadline] (1) According to Axios, citing four US, Israeli, and regional sources familiar with the negotiations, the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement that could ultimately end the war. (2) The sources said the chances of reaching a partial agreement within the next 48 hours are slim, but this last effort is the only chance to prevent a sharp escalation of the war. President Trump's 10-day deadline for Iran was originally set to expire Monday evening, but he extended it by 20 hours on Sunday, with the new deadline at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. (3) Trump told Axios on Sunday that the US is in "deep negotiations" with Iran and that an agreement could be reached before his deadline expires on Tuesday.
10:07:40
[The resilience of the US job market faces a new test from the Iran war] (1) The March jobs report showed 178,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, once again proving that the US labor market can always regain its footing after experiencing interest rate hikes, banking crises and tariff shocks; however, the current impact of the Iran war on energy and supply chains will test its resilience limits. (2) The average monthly increase in February and March data was only 22,500 jobs, but due to the sharp decline in immigration and the increase in retirements, the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment stability is far less than in the past; economists had hoped that the slowdown would end, but after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, "no one talks about a renewed acceleration." (3) The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: it has repeatedly claimed that inflation is temporary, but the new shock makes this claim unsustainable; in an optimistic scenario, the war temporarily limits the damage to hiring, while in a pessimistic scenario, a prolonged conflict pushes up costs and squeezes consumption and employment. The labor market is "resilient but weak," and whether it can withstand another shock depends on how long the war lasts.
10:01:14
[Six Departments Including the Ministry of Commerce: Supporting SME Transformation and Guiding E-commerce Enterprises to Launch "Small, Fast, Lightweight, and Accurate" Digital Products and Solutions] The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued guiding opinions on better serving the real economy and promoting the high-quality development of e-commerce. Supporting SME Transformation: Deepen the implementation of the special action plan for digital empowerment of SMEs, encourage the standardized application of electronic certification in the e-commerce field, and reduce the cost of digital transformation for SMEs. Upgrade the national e-commerce public service platform and improve its functions such as policy interpretation, case release, and data sharing. Guide e-commerce enterprises to launch "small, fast, lightweight, and accurate" digital products and solutions, and open up data, channels, and technologies to brand merchants, SMEs, and individual businesses to provide support for enterprise store location selection, new product development, product display, and inventory management. Support e-commerce enterprises to settle in Sino-foreign SME cooperation zones and help SMEs connect with high-quality international resources. (Ministry of Commerce)
10:00:46
[Six Departments Including the Ministry of Commerce: Promoting Cross-Border E-commerce, Strongly Supporting Overseas Warehouses for Cross-Border E-commerce, and Improving Overseas Smart Logistics Platforms] The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued guiding opinions on better serving the real economy and promoting the high-quality development of e-commerce. Among them, it is mentioned that cross-border e-commerce should be promoted. This includes promoting the high-quality development of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, organizing special actions in these zones for brand cultivation, rule and standard construction, and platform and seller overseas expansion. The development of "market procurement + cross-border e-commerce" and "China-Europe Railway Express + cross-border e-commerce" models should be promoted, and transportation capacity such as sea freight, air freight, rail freight, and multimodal transport should be enhanced. Strong support should be given to overseas warehouses for cross-border e-commerce, improving overseas smart logistics platforms, innovating and developing digital trade, and supporting e-commerce enterprises to expand the export of high-quality digital services. E-commerce enterprises should be encouraged to build direct procurement bases overseas, expand the import of high-quality and distinctive products, and create a "direct route" for global goods to enter the Chinese e-commerce market. (Ministry of Commerce)
10:00:00
[Six Departments Including the Ministry of Commerce: Developing "Artificial Intelligence + E-commerce," Guiding E-commerce Enterprises to Strengthen R&D and Application of AI Big Data Models and Other Technologies] The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued guiding opinions on better serving the real economy and promoting the high-quality development of e-commerce. The opinions emphasize strengthening innovation leadership to help achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand. They call for accelerating the application of technological innovation, supporting leading e-commerce enterprises to increase R&D investment, strengthen breakthroughs in core technologies in key areas, and build an innovation ecosystem of "industry-research collaboration and application transformation." The opinions also emphasize developing "artificial intelligence + e-commerce," guiding e-commerce enterprises to strengthen R&D and application of AI big data models and other technologies to optimize consumer experience, reduce operating costs, and improve circulation efficiency. Furthermore, the opinions encourage e-commerce enterprises to use technology for good, coordinating the interests of all parties to optimize algorithm rules. Finally, the opinions emphasize strengthening judicial protection of technological achievements in the e-commerce field, exploring the establishment of rules for evidence disclosure and evidence obstruction exclusion, and appropriately reducing the burden of proof on rights holders. Finally, the opinions call for selecting e-commerce technology innovation application cases to deepen the application of digital technologies. (Ministry of Commerce)
09:55:58
[The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Enters a Critical Moment: Attacks Continue Despite Toll Payments, Inflationary Shocks Already Arrive] ⑴ Ships from countries that agreed to pay fees to Iranian authorities had been passing through the Strait of Hormuz, but attacks on these ships continued this week, indicating the conflict is far from over. The US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Index surged in March, with prices for polyethylene, made from hydrocarbons, also rising. ⑵ Despite facing gasoline prices exceeding $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, inflation expectations remain stable. If Iran continues to target regional energy supplies, economic and financial losses will become irreversible by mid-April. ⑶ Since the outbreak of the war, the chances of a Democratic sweep of Congress have been steadily increasing. If the situation continues to deteriorate, it will likely push for regime change. Some conflict data originally scheduled for Monday's update were delayed until Tuesday due to Easter Monday.
09:53:14
[Hot News Recap: Trump's Easter Rage Threatens to Send Iran to "Hell" on Tuesday] 1. On Easter Sunday (local time), US President Trump issued a strong threat to Iran via social media, demanding that Tehran immediately open the Strait of Hormuz, or the US would launch strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges on Tuesday. He wrote in a post: "Tuesday will be Iran's Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, both at once. Unprecedented!!!" 2. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked by Iran since the US-Israel military strikes against Iran more than a month ago. Trump gave a more specific time in a subsequent post: "Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET!" The White House did not respond to whether this meant the US military would launch an attack at that time. 3. Trump's threat came shortly after the US military completed a high-intensity 48-hour rescue operation in Iran, successfully rescuing two US pilots. Trump stated that one of the rescued colonels was "seriously injured" and described the operation as an "Easter miracle." 4. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned on Sunday that further attacks on Iranian civilian targets would severely damage U.S. economic interests in the region. Meanwhile, Trump's aggressive rhetoric drew criticism domestically, with a Democratic senator calling his remarks "embarrassing and childish" and increasing the risks to U.S. military personnel. 5. Several international law experts pointed out that Trump's threats to attack civilian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges could violate international humanitarian law. Massachusetts Democratic Representative and Marine Corps veteran Ochincross stated that although the U.S. still holds a military advantage, "strategically, this war has been lost."
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