2026-09-16 Wednesday
2026-09-22
07:51:42
Japan's seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance for August (in billions of yen)
Previous
:
-6860.09
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-8405.88
Previous
07:51:25
Japan's merchandise exports in August - Unadjusted (billion yen)
Previous
:
115117.98
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
100483.75
Previous
07:51:25
Japan's merchandise imports in August - Unadjusted (billion yen)
Previous
:
121462.98
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
111539.82
Previous
07:50:01
Japan's core machinery orders month-on-month rate in July
Previous
:
9.70%
Forecast
:
-2.80%
Published Value
-3.70%
Previous
07:50:01
Japan's core machinery orders year-on-year rate in July
Previous
:
16.90%
Forecast
:
15.30%
Published Value
11.20%
Previous
07:50:01
Japan's August merchandise imports year-on-year rate - unadjusted
Previous
:
27.80%
Forecast
:
26.30%
Published Value
28%
Previous
07:50:01
Japan's August merchandise trade balance - unadjusted (billion yen)
Previous
:
-6345
Forecast
:
-1052
Published Value
-11056
Previous
07:50:00
Japan's merchandise exports year-on-year rate in August - Unadjusted
Previous
:
23.20%
Forecast
:
18.20%
Published Value
19.30%
Previous
07:46:11
[Fed Rate Hike Conflict Imminent, Warsh May Face First Tightening During His Tenure] 1. The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET (2:00 AM Thursday Beijing time). Financial markets widely expect policymakers to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, signaling further tightening in the future. High inflation, oil prices at $100 per barrel, and Warsh's repeated emphasis on maintaining price stability and valuing market pricing signals seem to make this move virtually a foregone conclusion. 2. This decision may put Warsh, who took office in May, in a dilemma. Trump appointed Warsh with the explicit desire for rate cuts, but so far has not criticized him for failing to do so, instead blaming other "politically motivated" central bank officials. It remains unclear how Trump will react if the Fed raises rates with the November midterm elections approaching, as his Republican Party strives to maintain its slim majority in Congress. 3. A report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month last month. This key indicator of underlying inflationary pressures is well above the level required to achieve the 2% target. Meanwhile, renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel. The latest data does not help prove that underlying inflation is "clearly and rapidly" approaching the 2% target—precisely what Warsh demanded at last month's global central bank conference. 4. If the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates, especially if the officials' forecasts released at the same time suggest another rate hike this year, Warsh may have to reveal at least some information about the interest rate path and the economic outlook, unless he is willing to leave the door open for further rate hikes. TD Securities economists point out that if Warsh still wants to avoid providing forward guidance, his remarks will have to be carefully worded, as the market will certainly be asking whether there will be further rate hikes. 5. JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli stated that if the chairman repeatedly issues harsh warnings of zero tolerance for inflation without concrete action, it will damage the Federal Reserve's institutional credibility. He expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but believes the decision is "not as certain as the roughly 85% probability reflected in the interest rate futures market." 6. Scotiabank economist Derek Holt believes that raising rates now is not the right move, but given Warsh's previous statements, a rate hike will eventually happen, saying that Warsh "may have been cornered by his own highly market-respecting stance."
06:52:38
[Global Government Bond Yields Surge, Borrowing Costs Near Pre-Financial Crisis Highs] 1. On Tuesday, global government borrowing costs rose to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note briefly broke through 5.041%, a new high since 2007; the average yield on 10-year G7 government bonds rose to 4.285%, about 1 percentage point higher than before the Iran-Iraq War. 2. The Middle East conflict pushed oil prices back above $100 per barrel, increasing pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan on Friday, and the European Central Bank, which raised rates last week and may continue to tighten. 3. Bond sell-offs have increased government interest payments, crowding out other fiscal space and raising concerns about debt sustainability. The yield on the 10-year Japanese bond broke through 3%, a 30-year high, while the UK yield rose to 5.45%, the highest since 2007, and the French yield hovered near an 18-year high. 4. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's lack of preference for forward guidance has increased market uncertainty. Analysts point out that artificial intelligence capital expenditures, fiscal concerns, and debt expansion have complicated the environment. The U.S. Treasury's recent interventions have had limited effect. 5. Some strategists believe the fundamental reason for the current weakness in the bond market is that the combination of monetary and fiscal policies is too loose, making it difficult to sustain inflation back to 2%; once inflation is resolved, many other problems will be easier to handle.
06:45:30
[Photos of Damaged US Military Bases in the Middle East Revealed; Soldiers Say Defense System Failed to Effectively Intercept Attacks] 1. A batch of anonymous photos provided by active-duty US military personnel show severe damage to multiple US military bases in the Middle East following Iranian missile and drone attacks. The photos cover bases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, showing damaged buildings, vehicles, and equipment. 2. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, a Boeing E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft was hit, its tail section broken off. Photos of Camp Buelin and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait show damaged barracks, prefabricated houses, and vehicles. 3. A US military personnel stationed abroad stated that the bases suffered severe damage, but this information was not disclosed to the US public. "We're like standing there with our eyes closed, taking the punches," another soldier criticized, adding that the US military did not truly protect these bases and could only watch them be destroyed.
06:45:02
New Zealand's second quarter rolling annual current account balance (NZD billion)
Previous
:
-163
Forecast
:
-175.23
Published Value
-145.83
Previous
06:45:02
New Zealand's current account as a percentage of GDP in the second quarter (annualized rate)
Previous
:
-3.60%
Forecast
:
-3.90%
Published Value
-3.20%
Previous
06:11:00
US SPDR Gold Holdings Changes - Daily (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.08
Previous
06:10:59
US SPDR Gold Holdings - Daily Update (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
1047.20
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1050.28
Previous
05:57:24
US iShares Silver Holdings Changes - Daily (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
-25.28
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-25.29
Previous
05:57:24
US iShares Silver Holdings - Daily Update (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
15291.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
15266.31
Previous
05:57:22
US iShares Gold Holdings Changes - Daily (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
1.05
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.61
Previous
05:57:21
US iShares Gold Holdings - Daily Update (tons) - September 15
Previous
:
462.59
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
464.20
Previous
05:54:25
US NYMEX Palladium Inventory Change - Daily (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
05:54:24
US NYMEX Palladium Inventories - Daily Update (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
2502.47
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2502.47
Previous
05:54:23
US NYMEX Platinum Inventory Changes - Daily (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
-30.80
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.55
Previous
05:54:23
US NYMEX Platinum Inventory - Daily Update (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
3903.42
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3904.97
Previous
05:53:26
US COMEX Silver Inventory Changes - Daily (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
-9701.05
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-19525.02
Previous
05:53:25
US COMEX Gold Inventory Change - Daily (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
353.02
Previous
05:53:25
US COMEX Silver Inventories - Daily Update (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
3362716.74
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3343191.72
Previous
05:53:24
US COMEX Gold Inventories - Daily Update (100 ounces) - September 14
Previous
:
273485.17
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
273838.18
Previous
05:21:21
U.S. API weekly crude oil production (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11
Previous
:
-19.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-11.50
Previous
05:21:19
U.S. weekly refined product imports (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11 (API data)
Previous
:
-5.90
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
30.70
Previous
05:21:17
U.S. weekly crude oil imports (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11 (API data)
Previous
:
40.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-4.50
Previous
05:21:14
U.S. API Cushing crude oil inventory change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11.
Previous
:
-33.10
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-24.60
Previous
05:21:13
U.S. API gasoline inventory change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11
Previous
:
-186.70
Forecast
:
-120.10
Published Value
146.20
Previous
05:21:12
U.S. API distillate fuel oil inventory changes (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11
Previous
:
197.70
Forecast
:
82.70
Published Value
160.70
Previous
05:21:11
U.S. API crude oil inventory change (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending September 11
Previous
:
-32.70
Forecast
:
-175
Published Value
714.40
Previous
04:35:31
Musk stated that the solar energy industry will maintain exponential growth until the market share of all other energy sources falls below 0.1%. The global energy transition is progressing steadily, and solar energy, as a crucial component of clean energy, has indeed shown rapid growth in recent years thanks to its advantages such as continuously decreasing costs due to technological advancements and increasingly diverse application scenarios. However, the replacement of the energy system is a long process, requiring coordinated support from multiple aspects, including energy storage technologies, grid infrastructure, and industrial policies. The future energy structure will also be influenced by multiple factors, such as technological breakthroughs, market demand, and the pace of global emissions reduction targets.