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2026-02-15 Sunday

2026-02-22

10:37:01

[USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Carry Trade Retreat and Fragile Sentiment Combine to Increase Market Risk] 1. Changing Market Landscape: The USD/JPY pair started the week volatile, with the strengthening yen, fragile risk sentiment, and carry trade unwinding pressure all converging. Traditional macroeconomic drivers offer limited guidance, requiring traders to look more closely to market behavior for direction. This week, USD/JPY fell sharply from its high of 157.65, closing with a key bearish reversal pattern on the weekly chart, signaling a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. 2. Carry Trade Risks Focused: Rising short-term funding costs in Japan, yen appreciation, and increased volatility in risk assets collectively create an unfavorable environment for USD/JPY long positions. Weakness in previously leading sectors such as precious metals and US tech stocks further exacerbates position vulnerability. Continued declines in asset prices could trigger a chain reaction of unwinding similar to that of August 2024, when USD/JPY fell by over 1000 points in a single week. 3. Key Correlation Indicators Warn: Over the past week, the correlation coefficient between USD/JPY and Nasdaq futures reached as high as 0.78, and it showed a significant negative correlation of -0.92 with VIX futures. This indicates that exchange rate movements are highly correlated with risk sentiment, and any further volatility in risky assets could quickly spread to the yen market. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficient between the US-Japan 10-year government bond yield spread and USD/JPY also reached 0.76, reinforcing the yield curve's guiding significance for exchange rates. 4. Key Technical Levels: Upward resistance levels are at 153.50 (the previous two days' daily chart level) and 154.45 (previous support turned resistance). Downward support is in the 152.10-152.30 area (near the January low and the 200-day moving average). A break below this area would significantly increase the risk of liquidation. In terms of trend signals, the daily RSI and MACD remain bearish, with a clear pattern of rebound resistance, indicating a short-term bias towards a downtrend.

2026-02-14 Saturday

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

71.58

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USD

97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)