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2026-04-06 Monday

2026-04-10

16:39:59

[Bank of Japan's Optimistic Assessment Conceals Hidden Concerns: Middle East Conflict Torn the Balance of Interest Rate Hikes, Corporate Confidence in Wage Increases Tested] ⑴ The Bank of Japan maintained its optimistic economic assessment across all nine regions in its quarterly report released Monday, noting that consumption remained strong thanks to inbound tourism and rising wages. However, it also warned that soaring oil prices and supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict could impact the economy. ⑵ Businesses in several regions have already felt the pressure from increased input costs and raw material supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Some companies are concerned that rising prices, primarily driven by energy, could harm corporate profits and consumption, and worry that supply disruptions could further expand. ⑶ Regarding the wage outlook, the report stated that many companies in various regions plan to raise wages this year at roughly the same rate as last year, but some companies indicated that their wage increase plans might be affected by the outlook for the Middle East conflict, and uncertainty surrounding wage increases is rising. ⑷ Although rising inflationary pressures and the central bank's hawkish communication have led the market to bet on a 70% probability of an April interest rate hike, the conflict has complicated the rate hike plan. The report, based on a survey up to late March, already reflects the impact of the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28. (5) Soaring oil prices coupled with rising import costs due to a weak yen have put greater inflationary pressure on this highly import-dependent economy. However, rising fuel costs will also hurt corporate profits and may disrupt the wage and price increase cycle that the central bank sees as a prerequisite for further interest rate hikes.

16:33:17

[The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Reshapes Global Logistics, Ushering in a Major Restructuring of the Global Logistics Chain] The disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East situation has severely impacted global logistics. This situation has persisted for over a month, and the logistics industry has gradually shifted from initial "shutdowns for risk aversion" to "rerouting and diversion" and "repricing." With continuous adjustments to routes and transportation methods, this shock is also driving a redistribution of risks and benefits within the global logistics chain. As the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to escalate, the export of Middle Eastern crude oil is hampered, and Asian and European buyers are increasingly turning to the United States and West Africa for alternative sources of cargo. A related source stated, "For shipping, this is equivalent to 30% of the normally transported oil not being able to be shipped out, because importing countries are rushing to find oil elsewhere, but ships haven't been able to be redeployed in time." In contrast, air logistics faces a more complex situation in this crisis. On the one hand, with maritime transport disrupted, some time-sensitive and high-value goods are shifting to air freight, directly driving up freight rates; on the other hand, although air freight prices are rising, air logistics companies are also facing multiple pressures, including soaring fuel costs. As the regional conflict shows no signs of ending, the restructuring of the logistics chain continues. (CCTV Finance)

16:28:26

[Bank of Japan's Optimistic Assessment Conceals Hidden Concerns: Middle East Conflict Torn the Balance of Interest Rate Hikes, Corporate Confidence in Wage Increases Tested] ⑴ The Bank of Japan maintained its optimistic economic assessment across all nine regions in its quarterly report released Monday, noting that consumption remained strong thanks to inbound tourism and rising wages. However, it also warned that soaring oil prices and supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict could impact the economy. ⑵ Businesses in several regions have already felt the pressure from increased input costs and raw material supply disruptions caused by the war in Iran. Some companies are concerned that rising prices, primarily driven by energy, could harm corporate profits and consumption, and worry that supply disruptions could further expand. ⑶ Regarding the wage outlook, the report stated that many companies in various regions plan to raise wages this year at roughly the same rate as last year, but some companies indicated that their wage increase plans might be affected by the outlook for the Middle East conflict, and uncertainty surrounding wage increases is rising. ⑷ Although rising inflationary pressures and the central bank's hawkish communication have led the market to bet on a 70% probability of an April interest rate hike, the conflict has complicated the rate hike plan. The report, based on a survey up to late March, already reflects the impact of the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28. (5) Soaring oil prices coupled with rising import costs due to a weak yen have put greater inflationary pressure on this highly import-dependent economy. However, rising fuel costs will also hurt corporate profits and may disrupt the wage and price increase cycle that the central bank sees as a prerequisite for further interest rate hikes.

16:27:02

[Iran's Missile Retaliation, Trump's Threat to Bomb Power Plants, Oil Prices Tear Apart, Bond Markets Plunge, Gold Sells Off] ⑴ Following Trump's escalating threats against Iran, Iran launched missiles and drones at Gulf states and Israel, escalating concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Crude oil futures reacted mixed: in Asian trading, Brent crude futures for the near month rose 0.5% to $109.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures for the near month fell 0.2% to $110.88 per barrel. ⑵ Trump threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants if Iranian leaders did not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, extending the deadline from Monday to Tuesday. Approximately 20% of global oil shipments pass through the strait, keeping the risk of escalation high. ⑶ A senior foreign exchange analyst at MUFG stated that oil prices are likely to remain high with risks skewed to the upside. Market concerns that rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation, prompting central banks to raise interest rates more quickly or pause rate cuts for a longer period, put downward pressure on government bond prices. (4) The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.400%, the highest intraday level since February 1999, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose 4 basis points to 4.3575%. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The UOB Global Economics team stated that tensions in the Middle East have disrupted stable inflation, posing a risk of supply disruptions. (5) Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,657.86 per ounce. Gold prices experienced significant volatility as investors favored assets like the US dollar due to its greater liquidity and convertibility, and rising bond yields reduced gold's appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset. Meanwhile, stocks rose in thin holiday trading.

16:24:30

[Russian Crude Oil Exports Surge Nearly 9% Amid Trump's Tariff Rhetoric and Market Concerns, Global Supply Chain Faces Further Uncertainty] ⑴ Russia's Black Sea port of Tuapse plans to export 794,000 tons of petroleum products in April, an 8.7% increase from the 755,000 tons planned in March, with a significant increase in daily export volume. ⑵ Among specific categories, fuel oil exports saw the most significant increase, jumping from 210,000 tons in March to 266,000 tons, a 30.9% increase month-on-month; diesel (10ppm) is planned for export at 368,000 tons, a slight increase of 4.2% from the previous value. ⑶ Blended diesel and vacuum gas oil are planned for export at 40,000 tons and 30,000 tons respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 3.3% and 3.3%; naphtha is the only category to decline, with planned exports of 90,000 tons in April, a 15.5% decrease from 110,000 tons in March. ⑷ Meanwhile, Trump's tariff rhetoric continues to trigger global trade tensions, exacerbating concerns in the energy market about supply chain stability. Russia's decision to significantly increase oil exports at this time may be aimed at seizing market opportunities. (5) Traders pointed out that the surge of nearly 30% in fuel oil exports reflects Russia's bet on demand in Asia and emerging markets, while the moderate growth in diesel exports indicates that logistical obstacles remain on the European route, and the actual loading situation needs to be monitored in the future.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4773.70

54.52

(1.16%)

XAG

75.788

1.734

(2.34%)

CONC

98.28

3.87

(4.10%)

OILC

96.36

0.20

(0.21%)

USD

98.805

-0.225

(-0.23%)

EURUSD

1.1700

0.0038

(0.32%)

GBPUSD

1.3434

0.0042

(0.31%)

USDCNH

6.8299

-0.0021

(-0.03%)