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Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

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2026-09-16 Wednesday

2026-09-22

14:00:00

UK August Retail Price Index (YoY)

Previous : 3.20% Forecast : 3.50%

US Dollar
British Pound

Published Value 3.40%

Previous

14:00:00

UK August Core CPI Annual Rate

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : 2.60%

Neutral

Published Value 2.60%

Previous

13:25:57

[Fed Rate Hikes in Focus: Dot Plot Attracts Attention, But Warsh's Stance Raises Questions on Credibility] (1) If the Fed raises rates this week, investors will focus on the "dot plot" to determine how many more rate hikes there will be. The dot plot, published regularly since 2012, shows anonymous forecasts from 19 Fed officials and is intended to convey policy intentions in advance. (2) Wall Street generally expects a rate hike on Wednesday, but is more concerned about the end of the rate cycle. The June dot plot showed only one rate hike this year, and a barely acceptable one, and hinted at a possible small rate cut in 2027. The current disagreement is whether this is an isolated rate hike or the beginning of a rate hike cycle; some expect another hike before the end of the year and one or two more in 2027, some see it as a one-off, and others expect a compromise. (3) The key question is the credibility of the dot plot. Fed Chairman Warsh has long criticized the dot plot and refused to submit his own interest rate forecast in June, saying it did not help with policy implementation and hinting that he might downplay the plot. (4) Even if Warsh does not submit his forecast, the other 18 officials are expected to submit theirs, and the dot plot may still affect stock and bond prices. But Warsh's attitude has raised questions: How much trust should investors place in the dot plot in the future? (5) The dot plot has never been very accurate, and previous chairs, including Powell, have warned against relying on it entirely. Critics say it will soon become obsolete and sometimes mislead policy. Raymond James' Alleman said not to take it too seriously; EY Parthenon's Dako predicted that Warsh would dampen expectations of another rate hike in 2026. (6) The 2027 forecast is even more ambiguous: institutions believe that slower inflation next year may create room for rate cuts, but most investors expect at least one more rate hike. Chris Lowe of FHN Financial said the new dot plot may suggest an increased probability of at least one rate hike next year.

13:17:51

[Gold Receives Short-Term Support Ahead of Fed Decision, But Bullish Momentum Remains Constrained by Multiple Factors] 1. During Wednesday's Asian trading session, gold rebounded slightly after a brief pullback, attracting some bargain hunters near the 50-day moving average. Spot gold rose as much as 1.1% to around $4341 per ounce. The dollar's pause in its upward momentum after hitting a two-week high also provided some support for gold prices. However, ahead of key central bank events, traders are generally reluctant to make aggressive directional bets, seemingly limiting gold's upside potential, which has currently retreated to around $4324 per ounce. 2. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision later today, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate. Investors will focus on the Fed's updated economic projections and dot plot, as well as Chairman Warsh's remarks at the post-meeting press conference. This information will influence the short-term trend of the dollar and provide new directional guidance for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. 3. Energy-driven inflation risks continue to support the prospect of further tightening by the Fed. Crude oil prices rose to their highest level since May 20 on Tuesday due to escalating concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, a global bond sell-off continued, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield breaking through 5%, the first time since 2023 and the highest level since 2007. Escalating tensions in the Middle East also supported the safe-haven dollar, potentially limiting gold price gains. Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia issued security alerts for several regions, including Mecca and Jeddah, following a week of attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Saudi-led coalition pledged a “resolute” response to Houthi missile and drone attacks, increasing the risk of further escalation of the regional conflict. Furthermore, the US Central Command stated that 103 commercial vessels had been diverted as part of a maritime trade blockade against Iran, supporting oil prices and benefiting the dollar.

11:23:26

[Indonesia appoints its third finance minister in two years: Nazara takes over, fiscal discipline and central bank independence under scrutiny] (1) Indonesia has appointed its third finance minister in two years. President Prabowo dismissed Finance Minister Purbayar and appointed his deputy, Suahsir Nazara, to succeed him. This comes after the sudden resignation of Central Bank Governor Wajiyo several weeks earlier, intensifying scrutiny of Prabowo's control over fiscal and monetary policy. (2) Investors believe that Nazara is a well-known technocrat with extensive experience in the Ministry of Finance, having served as deputy minister for seven years and led the fiscal policy agency, and has close ties to the Sri Mulyani era. Analysts say his internal qualifications reduce transition risks; Capital Economics says the appointment is "welcome," but more evidence of policy improvement is needed. (3) The Indonesian economy has been squeezed this year by the energy crisis and fiscal constraints triggered by the war with Iran, with rising subsidy costs and government cuts to flagship projects. The benchmark index has fallen more than 25% this year, and the currency hit a record low in June. Fiscal discipline subsequently helped stabilize market sentiment; the Indonesian rupiah was quoted at 17,680 against the US dollar on Wednesday, and is expected to remain in the 17,600-17,800 range in the near term; the fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 2.85% of GDP by 2026. (4) Purbayar’s one-year term was downgraded in credit outlook by Fitch and Moody’s due to policy uncertainty. In his first speech, Nazara vowed to maintain the credibility of the budget and promised to keep the deficit below 3% of GDP. But a key constraint is that he must finance Prabowo’s expensive growth agenda with increasingly limited fiscal space. (5) Analysts expect fiscal policy to be less expansionary and to establish a more conciliatory relationship with the central bank. But this reshuffle comes at a time of unease about the central bank’s autonomy: Prabowo’s nephew was appointed deputy governor, Wajiyo resigned, and parliament elected Destri Damayanti as the central bank’s first female governor. Kuranzik called it “a further and worrying sign” of Prabowo’s consolidation of economic power. (6) The test lies in whether the 2027 budget, fiscal policy, and central bank will be more clearly separated, and whether Nazarra will cut or postpone projects lacking rapid economic momentum. Protecting fiscal credibility points to a real shift; if spending ambitions remain unchanged and adjustments are merely rhetoric, it's more like "business as usual."

11:04:56

Foreign ownership of New Zealand government bonds in August

Previous : 56.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 57

Previous

10:59:38

[Bank of Japan Expected to Raise Rates to 1.25%, a 31-Year High; Governor Ueda Faces Communication Challenges] (1) The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% at its meeting on September 17-18, the highest in 31 years and the first rate hike in three months. This move will join the tightening efforts of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures caused by soaring oil prices. (2) After the rate hike, the interest rate will enter the neutral interest rate range estimated by the Bank of Japan of 1.1% to 2.5%, marking a further break away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. The market has almost fully priced in this rate hike, and investors are watching whether Governor Kazuo Ueda will release any signals about future rate hikes at the press conference after the meeting. (3) Sources say that many within the Bank of Japan believe there is still room for several rate hikes before reaching the neutral interest rate, but they prefer a 25 basis point hike this time rather than a larger one; Toshiro Asada, who voted against it in June, may oppose it again. Hawkish member Naoki Tamura believes the neutral interest rate is around 2%. (4) Ueda faces communication challenges: a dovish stance could trigger a yen sell-off and push up import prices; a hawkish stance could disrupt the bond market. Japanese government bonds have already been sold off due to market concerns about Japan's fiscal situation, with yields rising to a 30-year high. Analysts say that given the uncertainty, it is best to remain ambiguous. (5) Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policy has complicated the Bank of Japan's decision-making. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that large-scale fiscal support from governments is posing challenges to central banks.

10:55:51

[US HHS Deputy Secretary Nominee Crump Attends Hearing: Democrats Press for Confidentiality of Vaccine Stance and Drug Pricing Agreements] (1) Chris Crump, the nominee for Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, appeared before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday for his confirmation hearing, facing sharp questions from Democrats. He was nominated to be the Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, making him the second most important person after Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (2) Democrats pressed Crump on the extent to which he would follow Kennedy's controversial views on vaccines. Crump said his job was to "make sure the agency runs smoothly" and earn people's trust, adding that "sweeping the questions of skeptics under the rug doesn't solve anything." He fully acknowledged the safety of vaccines but pointed out that he was not an immunology expert. (3) Senators Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren also pressured Crump on the confidentiality of President Trump's Medicaid "most favored nation" drug pricing agreements. Crump played a key role in assisting in the negotiation of these agreements. (4) Wyden argued that if these agreements truly help Americans who cannot afford prescription drugs, the government should be eager to release the details. Warren demanded to know what pharmaceutical companies would receive in return for agreeing to price reductions, including tariff reductions, exemptions from the Medicare Drug Pricing Model Program, expedited FDA approval, and the ability to maintain higher prices overseas while lowering prices in the U.S. (5) Crump stated that the details needed to be kept confidential to avoid leaking trade secrets and other proprietary information. Warren responded, “I want to see what the agreements are…that’s not how oversight works.” (6) Democrats have consistently been skeptical of government drug pricing agreements. Warren and Wyden’s questions suggest the direction lawmakers might take in oversight should Democrats win control of the Senate.

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Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

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-32.47

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