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2025-07-29 Tuesday

2025-08-02

18:02:50

On the Eve of a Major Policy Shift for the Federal Reserve: Chairmanship Change and a Battle for Tools! ⑴ The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy mechanism may be facing fundamental changes. ⑵ Recent moves by U.S. senators to strip the Fed of key tools for controlling interest rates, coupled with the ongoing battle for Fed Chairman Powell's succession, suggest that future monetary policy tools will face increased scrutiny. ⑶ While there are currently no signs of changes to the Fed's monetary policy mechanism, this may change as President Trump prepares to appoint Powell's successor. ⑷ Republican Senator Ted Cruz previously pushed to end the Fed's interest payments on bank reserves. If successful, this would upend the Fed's approach to managing interest rates and significantly impact its large bond holdings. ⑸ How the Fed uses bond purchases and its balance sheet to regulate the economy is also attracting considerable attention. ⑹ Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its bond holdings by over $2 trillion. The market expects the reduction to end when the balance sheet falls to approximately $6.1 trillion, while Fed Governor Waller even believes it could fall to $5.9 trillion. ⑺ Some potential successors to the Fed chairmanship, such as former Fed Governor Walsh, have even proposed a more radical bond reduction plan in an effort to boost the real economy. ⑻ Former New York Federal Reserve Bank President Dudley and former senior Fed official Ellen Meade both pointed out that returning to the policy system before the financial crisis would be a difficult task that could bring macroeconomic pain. ⑼ The current losses faced by the Fed are not inherent problems with the interest rate control system, but rather a result of stimulating the economy by purchasing longer-term bonds. ⑽ Analysts at forecasting firm LH Meyer pointed out that recent developments are largely related to the Republican Party's continued pressure on the Fed to ease its policies.

18:01:33

The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Category A in France for June

Previous : 300.22 Forecast : -

Published Value 321.24

Previous

17:55:44

[Foreign Exchange Market Giants' Hidden Turn: Does Data Reveal the Calm Before the Dollar Storm?] ⑴ The current focus in the forex market is on traders cashing in on large-scale short dollar positions to take profits, a move that could support the dollar going forward. ⑵ A pullback from recent record highs would further reinforce this view, as strong equity markets have encouraged forex traders to increase risk-taking. ⑶ Increased investment appetite in financial markets amidst a bullish trend suggests that forex traders may rebuild their currently reduced short dollar positions. ⑷ While bets on the euro have increased, they have not yet reached the excessive levels that would signal a historic reversal. ⑸ Profit-taking is reducing long euro positions, easing their dampening effect on EUR/USD's gains this year and creating conditions for a subsequent rebound. ⑹ EUR/USD has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1538 for the May-July rally, potentially forming the basis for a resumption of the uptrend and potentially forming a new bottom ahead of the May low of 1.1065. ⑺ The situation with USD/JPY is slightly different. Bets on the appreciation of the yen have reached a high proportion, indicating a larger correction. It has already retraced nearly half of its losses this year, and the correction may be nearing its end. ⑻ If enough yen longs take profits and USD/JPY fails to break through the 150 mark, traders are likely to choose to sell again.

17:52:44

Is a Storm Coming? Emerging Market Currencies Fall Across the Board, Trump's Tariff Comments and US Data Trigger Double Alerts in the Market. ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, most emerging market currencies fell against the strengthening US dollar, and stock markets were mixed. Investors were closely watching upcoming US economic data, while the deadline for Trump's tariff comments approached. ⑵ The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.3% for the third consecutive trading day, reaching its lowest level since late June. ⑶ The US dollar index rose 0.2%, hovering near a five-week high, after rising 1% the previous day as the US-EU trade deal boosted the dollar. ⑷ Most Asian currencies weakened against the US dollar, with the South African rand down 0.4%, poised for its fourth consecutive day of decline, while the Turkish lira was little changed. ⑸ European emerging market currencies weakened against the euro, with the Hungarian forint falling 0.8%, poised for its biggest single-day drop since April 11th, after the government slashed its 2025 growth forecast from 2.5% to 1%. ⑹ The Polish zloty fell 0.4%. The Polish Prime Minister said that preliminary estimates show that Trump's tariff remarks may cost Poland about 8 billion zlotys (about 2.16 billion US dollars). ⑺ The Russian ruble fell 1.3% against the US dollar after Trump shortened the Russian armistice period and threatened to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on trading partners if a separate agreement is not reached. ⑻ Despite the negative impact at the macro level, Jefferies Chief European Economist Mohit Kumar believes that the world can withstand a tariff level of around 15%. However, the market needs to be wary of possible weakness in August data. ⑼ Regional stock markets were mixed, with Polish and Romanian stock markets rebounding 1% and 0.2% respectively, and South African stock markets rising 0.6%, but the MSCI Global Emerging Markets Stock Index still fell 0.3%.

17:31:23

The UK's M4 money supply in June

Previous : 31336.36 Forecast : -

Published Value 31420.43

Previous

17:03:07

Euro Hits Bottom! US-EU Trade Deal Reveals Imbalances, Rekindling Market Storm? ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, the euro fell to a one-month low against the US dollar, as investors realized that the terms of the US-EU trade deal clearly favored the United States and would provide limited support for the eurozone's economic outlook. ⑵ The euro fell 0.5% against the dollar at one point, hitting its lowest point since June 23rd. Following a sharp 1.3% drop on Monday, it was currently trading at 1.1565, down another 0.17%. ⑶ The French Prime Minister called the agreement a "dark day" for Europe, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also pointed out that the 15% tariffs in the agreement would cause "significant" damage to the German economy. ⑷ The euro had suffered its biggest single-day drop against the US dollar in over two months in the previous trading day, primarily due to market concerns about the growth outlook and falling eurozone government bond yields. (5) The trade agreement was interpreted by the market as "bad news" for Eurozone growth, causing the US dollar index to surge 1% overnight and rise another 0.2% to 98.811 on Tuesday, pushing the British pound to a two-month low of 1.3338. (6) Furthermore, Trump's tariff rhetoric continued to fuel market concerns, as he reiterated that tariffs of 15% to 20% would be imposed on trading partners that fail to reach separate agreements. (7) This week's market focus also included interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Although both were widely expected to remain on hold, Sweden's second-quarter GDP grew by only 0.1%, and the Swedish krona fell by 0.33%, indicating that economic data continues to influence market sentiment.

16:52:13

[The Tariff Conundrum of the Japanese Economy: Agreement Reached, But Shadows Remain?] ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th, Beijing time, the Japanese government stated that the conclusion of a trade agreement with the United States has, to some extent, alleviated the uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑵ The agreement reduces tariffs to 15% from the initially proposed 25%, providing some breathing space for related industries. ⑶ In its July monthly economic report, the Japanese Cabinet Office maintained its overall assessment of a "moderate recovery" in the economy, but noted that Trump's tariff rhetoric has had an impact on some sectors, such as automobiles. ⑷ Although automobile export prices to the United States have fallen significantly since April, officials stated that there is currently no clear indication that tariffs have led to substantial changes in export volumes, the manufacturing price index, or employment. ⑸ Although short-term risks have eased, the Japanese government emphasized that downside risks to the economy remain and that the potential impact of US trade policies must be continuously monitored. ⑹ The report also noted that the Cabinet Office's downward revision of its export assessment for the first time in a year primarily reflects a slowdown in semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports to Taiwan and South Korea. ⑺ It is worth noting that the Japanese government remains optimistic about private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, and believes that it is recovering.

16:50:53

[Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve escalate: the horn of rate cuts and the hawk-dove duel under the fog of data] ⑴ The recent statements of two Federal Reserve directors foreshadow potential differences in policy making, which is rare in the past three decades. ⑵ Director Waller advocates aggressive rate cuts and believes that action should be taken at the end of July, otherwise the Federal Reserve may lag behind the situation. He pointed out that economic risks are rising and the job market is in a "marginal state." ⑶ Waller emphasized that Trump's tariff remarks only pushed up prices once and would not bring about sustained inflation. Even if the 10% tariff continues, it will only increase inflation by 0.75% to 1%, and the cost will be borne by consumers, foreign producers and importers. ⑷ Director Bowman also believes that the time for rate cuts is approaching and said it is time to consider adjusting the policy interest rate. ⑸ Bowman pointed out that inflation is steadily returning to the 2% target, and the potential trend of core PCE inflation is closer to this target. He believes that Trump's tariff remarks have a "minimal" impact on inflation. ⑹ Both directors emphasized that the independence of the central bank is crucial and is not subject to political interference, indicating that policy making will be based on economic data rather than external pressure. ⑺ Their different emphases reflect the Fed’s complex considerations on economic risk assessment and the pace of interest rate cuts, which deserves the market’s close attention.

16:34:29

【Euro/dollar "Gamma" Game: A Secret War of Volatility】 ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th Beijing time, the demand for gamma of euro/dollar foreign exchange options increased significantly in the past 24 hours, especially concentrated in put options. ⑵ Gamma measures the sensitivity of option delta to spot price fluctuations. The stronger the market volatility, the higher the gamma value. Traders holding long gamma tend to profit from realized fluctuations by adjusting spot positions. ⑶ Short-term options with maturities of less than one month and strike prices close to spot often have the highest gamma values. ⑷ With the approach of important risk events in the United States this week, such as the Federal Reserve's policy decision and Friday's non-farm payrolls data, the demand for such "gamma-rich" options has surged, and the recent rebound of the US dollar has further supported these contracts. ⑸ Implied volatility responded to this: the euro/dollar implied volatility jumped from about 7.0 to 8.0 in a week, and then briefly pulled back in the overall volatility sell-off. It has now rebounded to a high of around 8.75. ⑹ One-month implied volatility has also strengthened, rising from the tariff low of 7.3 on April 2 to 7.65 in the past 24 hours. ⑺ Given that the EUR/USD spot price is approaching the low of the range and there are many obstacles around 1.1500, if US data or Fed comments are positive for the dollar, the risk of stop-loss triggering a breakout is increasing, and gamma demand is therefore shifting to lower strike prices.

16:31:10

[European stocks rebound under the trade storm: data reveals the undercurrent of market sentiment] ⑴ On the afternoon of July 29th Beijing time, European stocks rose against the trend, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index rising 0.5%, and the German DAX and French CAC indexes also rising close to 1%. The market is digesting the impact of the new US-EU trade agreement. ⑵ The new 15% tariff is significantly higher than the previous 2.5%, raising concerns about escalating trade tensions, although the initial reaction was a brief sigh of relief. ⑶ However, data shows that the market is beginning to accept that the tariff range of 10% to 15% is not an unbearable burden, which is seen as a "decent compromise." ⑷ The shadow of Trump's tariff remarks remains, and he reiterated his intention to impose a 15% to 20% "world tariff" on partners that have not reached a separate trade agreement. ⑸ Individual stock performance is differentiated: Despite the impact of tariffs, EssilorLuxottica's operating profit in the first half of the year still increased by 6%; Philips rose 10.3% due to a reduction in expectations for the impact of tariffs. ⑹ Car dealer Inchcape suffered the biggest drop in profits in the first half of the year due to tariffs, with profits falling by 7.7%. ⑺ The aerospace and defense sector rebounded by 1.9% after three consecutive days of decline, benefiting from the zero tariff policy for aircraft and parts in the new trade framework. ⑻ Investors are paying close attention to the second quarter GDP data of the eurozone and the United States to be released this week, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the highly anticipated US employment report.

16:30:50

The annual rate of the UK's M4 money supply in June

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.30%

Previous

16:29:56

The monthly rate of the UK's M4 money supply in June

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

16:29:54

The Bank of England's consumer credit in June

Previous : 8.59 Forecast : 12

英镑
美元

Published Value 14.17

Previous

16:29:53

The Bank of England's mortgage lending in June

Previous : 20.54 Forecast : 23.50

英镑
美元

Published Value 53.40

Previous

16:29:53

The Bank of England granted mortgage loans in June

Previous : 6.30 Forecast : 6.30

Published Value 6.42

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 3363.16

73.24

(2.23%)

XAG

 37.003

0.319

(0.87%)

CONC

 67.26

-2.00

(-2.89%)

OILC

 69.48

-2.30

(-3.20%)

USD

 98.678

-1.389

(-1.39%)

EURUSD

 1.1594

0.0001

(0.01%)

GBPUSD

 1.3282

-0.0001

(-0.00%)

USDCNH

 7.1909

-0.0006

(-0.01%)
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