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2026-09-16 Wednesday

2026-09-22

15:16:55

[Saudi Pipeline Attack Cuts Supply to Europe, Major Buyers Scramble for Alternatives, Spot Brent Crude Soars Above $120] 1. Trade sources revealed that Saudi Arabia has cut crude oil supplies to Europe due to a drone attack damaging a key export pipeline to the Red Sea, prompting major customers such as Poland to urgently seek alternative sources, pushing spot crude oil prices above $120 per barrel. Saudi Arabia blamed the attack on Iraqi militias, which forced the country to shut down the east-west trans-desert pipeline last Friday. This pipeline has helped Saudi Arabia avoid the worst impacts of a strait blockade over the past six months. 2. Oil trading and shipping sources said on Tuesday that Saudi Aramco has notified European customers that some crude oil shipments scheduled for September loading will be cancelled, and crude oil loading operations at Yanbu port on the Red Sea have also been suspended. Saudi Aramco declined to comment. Trading sources said that the reduction in Saudi crude oil exports via the Red Sea will prompt Saudi Arabia to try so-called "covert transport" methods, similar to those used by the UAE and Iraq, to export more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. This type of transportation allows Gulf oil-producing countries to export 7 to 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, equivalent to 30% to 40% of pre-war export levels. 3. Supply disruptions support oil prices. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows that Brent crude futures are trading near a four-month high, currently around $107.5 per barrel, while physical crude prices in the European market are even higher, with the key benchmark spot Brent crude price at around $122 per barrel. Vortexa data shows that in the week of September 7-13, Saudi Arabia loaded 22 million barrels of crude oil onto 12 ships at the ports of Rastanura and Juaima, compared to only six to seven ships per week in the previous three weeks. 4. Five industry sources say that Polish integrated oil company Orlen is urgently seeking crude oil sources from the North Sea and other regions to replace disrupted Saudi crude oil imports. Saudi Aramco became Orlen's largest crude oil supplier in 2022 and currently supplies the company with approximately 40% of its crude oil. Sources say Orlen purchased several lots of crude oil through spot tenders last Friday and Monday, and is also seeking to buy US WTI Midland crude and Kazakhstan CPC blend crude. The company issued another tender on Tuesday, seeking to buy North Sea or Algerian crude for October delivery, and Guyana crude for November delivery, but the results are yet to be announced.

15:13:53

Shanghai Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Copper (tons) - September 16

Previous : 10003 Forecast : -

Published Value 1095

Previous

15:13:53

China's SHFE daily warehouse receipts changes - crude oil (barrels) on September 16

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

15:13:52

China Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Silver (kg) - September 16

Previous : 20725 Forecast : -

Published Value -20534

Previous

15:13:52

China Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Fuel Oil (tons) - September 16

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

15:13:51

Shanghai Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Gold (kg) - September 16

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

14:14:30

[Reflationist Retention Sets the Tone; Takaichi Cabinet Reshuffle Expected to Continue Expansionary Fiscal Policy] 1. According to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will reshuffle her cabinet on Thursday, with reflationist ally Minoru Kirouchi expected to remain as Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is also expected to retain his post. This move indicates that Takaichi has no intention of significantly tightening large-scale spending plans. 2. The market had been closely watching Kirouchi's future, using it to determine whether the recent bond sell-off prompted Takaichi to adjust her fiscal policy. Due to concerns that Japan would issue more government bonds to support expansionary fiscal policy, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose to a 30-year high of 3.025% on Tuesday and further to 3.035% on Wednesday. 3. Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated that the current rise in yields is mainly due to concerns about Japan's fiscal outlook, and if Kirouchi remains in office, these concerns will only intensify; unless there is a significant change in Takaichi's fiscal policy, bond yields are likely to continue to rise. The Prime Minister's Office did not immediately respond to the Yomiuri Shimbun report. 4. Minoru Jonouchi belongs to the ruling party's faction advocating large-scale spending and has close ties with supporters of "Abenomics." While Takashi also supports "Abenomics," he has recently noticed market concerns and emphasized the need to "simultaneously" achieve economic growth and fiscal reform. Analysts point out that Jonouchi's continued tenure indicates that Takashi will not make significant adjustments to his growth-revitalizing policies. Yuhi Kawano, a market analyst at Mizuho Securities, stated that Jonouchi has been a key figure in promoting Takashi's "responsible and proactive" fiscal policy, and his continued tenure will be seen by the market as a signal that the government will maintain expansionary fiscal policy. 5. As Minister of State for Special Missions in the Cabinet Office, Jonouchi has the right to attend Bank of Japan policy meetings as one of the government's representatives. He and his reflationist aides around Takashi have reservations about the normalization of the central bank's policy, worrying that rising interest rates will harm economic growth and increase spending costs. Meeting minutes show that when the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in June, Jonouchi stated that the central bank must be responsible for its decision and its negative impact. 6. However, many analysts expect the Japanese government to avoid explicitly opposing the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, given that US Treasury Secretary Bessenter has repeatedly called for the BOJ to raise rates. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level in 31 years on Friday and hint at its readiness to continue pushing up borrowing costs, joining other major central banks globally in combating inflation. Minoru Kōchi stated at a press conference on Tuesday that he agrees with some of the views of proponents of a "high-pressure economy," namely, the intentional use of loose fiscal and monetary policies to maintain demand at a level higher than supply.

14:11:28

China's commercial banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales in August - Banks' customer transactions (RMB 100 million)

Previous : 1712 Forecast : -

Published Value 3524

Previous

14:01:28

[Bank of Japan Expected to Raise Rates to 31-Year High; Ueda Faces Dilemma in Communication] 1. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate from 1% to 1.25% this Friday, the highest level in 31 years, and hint at its readiness to continue pushing up borrowing costs, joining major central banks worldwide in addressing oil price-driven inflationary pressures. This would be the first rate hike in three months, marking a further step away from Japan's decades-long ultra-low interest rate policy. This move follows the European Central Bank's rate hike, and the Federal Reserve is also expected to tighten policy later this week. 2. With the market having almost fully priced in this rate hike, investors are now focusing on whether Governor Kazuo Ueda will signal the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Katsutoshi Inadome, a strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, points out that market opinions are divided: some believe hawkish comments will help alleviate concerns about the central bank lagging behind, while others believe it will push up expectations for terminal interest rates. Given the uncertainty, the best strategy for the Bank of Japan may be to remain as vague as possible. 3. Sources indicate that many within the Bank of Japan prefer a 25 basis point rate hike rather than a larger one, as the need to assess the impact of previous rate hikes on financial conditions is crucial. 4. Asada Toshiro, a member of the deliberation committee who voted against the rate hike in June, may dissent again. 5. Ueda will face communication challenges at the post-meeting press conference: he must avoid prematurely promising another rate hike, while also preventing a dovish stance from triggering a new round of yen selling and pushing up import prices; however, being too hawkish could disrupt the Japanese government bond market, which has already been sold off due to fiscal concerns. After raising the interest rate to 1.25%, the policy rate will enter the BOJ's estimated neutral rate range of 1.1% to 2.5%, sparking market discussion about the final interest rate level. 6. Sources say that many within the BOJ believe there is still room for several more rate hikes before reaching the neutral rate, with hawkish member Tamura Naoki believing the neutral rate is around 2%. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae's expansionary fiscal policy has further complicated decision-making, and IMF Managing Director Georgieva has warned that large-scale fiscal support from various countries is posing challenges to central banks.

14:01:13

UK August unadjusted CPI reading

Previous : 142.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 143.60

Previous

14:00:56

UK August Services CPI Annual Rate

Previous : 3.40 Forecast : 3.50

Published Value 3.40

Previous

14:00:55

UK August Services CPI Month-on-Month Rate

Previous : 0.60 Forecast : 0.30

Published Value 0.20

Previous

14:00:17

UK August Unadjusted Core Output PPI Month-on-Month Rate

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

14:00:16

UK August Unadjusted Input PPI Month-on-Month Rate

Previous : -1.70% Forecast : 0.40%

US Dollar
British Pound

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

14:00:15

UK August Unadjusted Input PPI YoY

Previous : 4.90% Forecast : 5.40%

Published Value 6.10%

Previous

14:00:14

UK August Unadjusted Core Output PPI YoY

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.70%

Previous

14:00:13

UK August Core CPI Monthly Rate

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

14:00:12

UK August Retail Price Index (RMS) month-on-month

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : 0.70%

US Dollar
British Pound

Published Value 0.60%

Previous

14:00:00

UK August CPI year-on-year rate

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 3.10%

Neutral

Published Value 3.10%

Previous

14:00:00

UK August CPI Monthly Rate

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.50%

Neutral

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4345.82

-32.47

(-0.74%)

XAG

66.047

-0.199

(-0.30%)

CONC

92.09

-3.99

(-4.15%)

OILC

100.12

-3.08

(-2.99%)

USD

100.400

0.190

(0.19%)

EURUSD

1.1467

-0.0018

(-0.16%)

GBPUSD

1.3372

-0.0022

(-0.16%)

USDCNH

6.6923

-0.0023

(-0.03%)