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2026-07-13 Monday

2026-07-19

19:28:10

[Brazilian Central Bank Survey Shows 2026 Inflation Expectation Revised Down to 5.16%, GDP Growth Forecast Remains Stable at 1.99%] ⑴ The latest survey of economists by the Central Bank of Brazil shows that the annual IPCA inflation index forecast for 2026 has been revised down to 5.16% from the previous 5.30%, while the inflation forecast for 2027 has been slightly revised up to 4.20%, from the previous 4.18%. ⑵ Regarding interest rate expectations, economists maintained their forecast for the benchmark interest rate Selic at 14.00% at the end of 2026 and at 12.00% at the end of 2027, reflecting stable market expectations for the end of the Brazilian Central Bank's tightening cycle and the pace of subsequent interest rate cuts. ⑶ Regarding economic growth forecasts, the GDP growth forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 1.99%, while the growth forecast for 2027 has been slightly revised down from the previous 1.69% to 1.65%, indicating a slight cooling of the medium-term growth outlook. (4) Regarding exchange rate expectations, economists maintain their forecast of a USD/BRL exchange rate of 5.20 at the end of 2026 and 5.28 at the end of 2027, indicating no further deterioration in the expectation of a real depreciation. (5) The combination of a downward revision of inflation and unchanged interest rate expectations is slightly positive for the bond market, but the downward revision of growth forecasts for 2027 and a stable exchange rate reflect the market's cautious attitude towards Brazil's structural improvements. Going forward, attention should be paid to the continued impact of the credibility of the fiscal framework and changes in the external liquidity environment on asset pricing.

19:20:11

[Iron Ore Port Transactions Continue to Decline, Forward Activity Increases] ⑴ On Monday, the national main port iron ore transaction volume was 473,000 tons, a decrease of 26.21% week-on-week, marking the second consecutive trading day of decline. The absolute volume fell to a low level for the week, indicating weak market purchasing intentions. ⑵ Forward spot transactions reached 630,000 tons, bucking the trend and exceeding the port spot transaction volume, indicating that some buyers prefer to lock in resources through forward channels, showing some concern about the stability of future supply. ⑶ Last week, port transactions showed a trend of rising first and then falling. After hitting a low of 473,000 tons on July 6, it rebounded sharply to 795,000 tons on July 7, and then gradually declined until it hit 473,000 tons again on Monday. The weekly high and low difference exceeded 320,000 tons, showing significant fluctuations. ⑷ Last week, the average daily transaction volume of iron ore at main ports was approximately 656,200 tons, while the average daily transaction volume of forward spot was approximately 578,800 tons. The proportion of forward transactions was at a relatively high level recently, reflecting a warming of the market's wait-and-see sentiment towards the spot market. (5) We should pay attention to the pace of steel mill restocking and changes in the arrival of imported ore. If spot transactions at ports continue to fail to recover effectively, coupled with the off-season effect of end-user demand, iron ore prices may face some adjustment pressure in the short term.

19:20:10

[Middle East Conflict Pushes Up Eurozone Bond Yields, German Bonds Post Biggest Weekly Gain Since June, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Rise Slightly] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields rose across the board on Monday as the US and Iran launched mutual missile and drone attacks, and Iran announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices and renewed global inflation concerns fueled the rise in the yield on Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond, which climbed 2.4 basis points to 3.0585%. The yield rose by approximately 10 basis points last week, marking its biggest weekly gain since early June. ⑵ The military conflict has reignited market concerns about the prospects for peace in the Middle East and the direction of inflation and interest rates. Previously, macroeconomic concerns had eased somewhat due to expectations of a peaceful resolution and falling energy costs. Brent crude oil rose 3.3% to $78.52 on Monday, higher than pre-war levels but still well below April's highs. (3) The yield on German 2-year government bonds, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose 4.3 basis points to 2.6921%, also recording its largest weekly gain since early June last week. Money market pricing indicates that the market expects the ECB to have about 37 basis points of tightening room this year, implying one rate hike and a nearly 50% probability of a second rate hike, a slight increase from last Friday. (4) The Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management pointed out that ECB officials recently hinted that inflationary pressures remain after the decline in energy prices, providing support for tightening expectations. However, he expects only one rate hike rather than a continuous rate hike cycle, as overall inflation data is positive and economic growth still faces headwinds. (5) Strategists at Commerzbank stated that in addition to the situation in the Middle East, factors such as domestic bond supply and large capital inflows in the coming days will exacerbate market volatility. They will pay close attention to the further guidance from the US June inflation data on the path of global interest rate expectations.

19:10:13

[Palm oil trading volume remains low, with a weekly average of less than 500 tons, indicating continued weak demand] ⑴ On Monday, the trading volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports was 959 tons, a slight increase of 0.95% compared to the previous trading day. The absolute volume remains low, and market activity has not shown significant improvement. ⑵ Last week, palm oil trading volume showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. It reached 500 tons on July 6th, declined to 220 tons on July 8th, remained flat at 220 tons on July 9th, and rebounded to 950 tons on July 10th. The rebound in the latter half of the week was mainly due to the low base effect, not a substantial recovery in demand. ⑶ Last week, the average daily trading volume of palm oil was only about 472 tons, which is relatively low in recent years. The total weekly trading volume was less than 2,400 tons, indicating extremely cautious purchasing intentions from end-users. ⑷ The continued sluggishness of palm oil spot trading, coupled with the low trading volume of soybean oil, reflects a lack of overall demand in the edible oil sector, with downstream enterprises maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. (5) We should pay attention to changes in palm oil import profits and export policy trends of major producing countries. If transaction volume continues to be unable to increase, the pressure of port inventory accumulation may gradually rise, which will drag down the spot basis and the price of near-month contracts.

19:08:14

[Soybean meal spot transactions hover at low levels, market sentiment becomes cautious] ⑴ On Monday, the total transaction volume of soybean meal at major oil plants nationwide was only 100,400 tons, a decrease of 75,600 tons from the previous trading day, of which spot transactions were 56,400 tons, maintaining a low level for two consecutive trading days. ⑵ Last week, soybean meal transactions showed a trend of rising first and then falling. After a high volume of 582,100 tons at the beginning of the week, the volume shrank day by day, falling to 140,600 tons on Wednesday, briefly rebounding to 176,000 tons on Thursday, and further declining to around 100,000 tons on Friday, with a weekly range of over 480,000 tons. ⑶ The average total transaction volume of soybean meal last week was approximately 310,000 tons, of which the average spot transaction volume was approximately 64,500 tons. The basis trading of distant months contributed the vast majority of the volume increase at the beginning of the week, indicating that the market had a strong willingness to lock in distant-month supplies when prices were relatively low. ⑷ The continued sluggish spot transactions reflect the slowdown in the pace of delivery by downstream feed companies, the rising wait-and-see sentiment among end users, low acceptance of current prices, and a focus on immediate needs. (5) We will continue to monitor changes in the operating pace of oil mills and the inventory situation of downstream livestock farms. If spot transactions continue to fail to recover effectively, the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation at oil mills may gradually increase, putting downward pressure on the spot basis.

18:52:11

[China Meteorological Administration: Above-average Precipitation in Most Parts of North China and Northeast China During the "Late July to Early August" Period] The China Meteorological Administration reports that precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been significantly above average this year. Since the start of the flood season (April 1 to July 12), the average precipitation in northern China was 228.6 mm, 23.1% higher than the same period in normal years. The average precipitation in North China was 288.4 mm, 62.5% higher than the same period in normal years. The National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration predicts that during the critical flood season of "late July to early August" (July 16 to August 15), precipitation will be above average in most parts of North China, eastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, most of East China, southern Central China, South China, northwestern Southwest China, eastern Tibet, and southern Xinjiang. In particular, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Beijing, Tianjin, most of Hebei, northern Shandong, most of Zhejiang, southern Jiangxi, Fujian, Taiwan, most of Guangdong, southeastern Tibet, and southwestern Xinjiang will experience 20-50% more precipitation. These areas may experience extreme heavy rainfall events, potentially triggering floods. Precipitation in the rest of the country will be near normal to below average for the same period, with northern Xinjiang experiencing 20-50% less precipitation. (CCTV News)

18:52:10

[Lithium carbonate opened lower but rebounded slightly, with mine shipments returning to normal; the oscillating pattern continues under tight balance] ⑴ Lithium carbonate opened lower but rallied on Monday, closing up 0.07%. Intense competition between bulls and bears led to temporary price stability, with insufficient short-term directional drivers. ⑵ Data from China United Metals Exchange (CUMEC) shows that Chilean lithium salt shipments totaled approximately 8,000 tons as of last week, maintaining a relatively stable level. Australian spodumene shipments reached approximately 80,000 tons last week, an increase of 22,000 tons week-on-week, with weekly shipments returning to normal and showing a significant decline from the June peak. ⑶ While port arrivals remain high, strong downstream demand has led to a slight decrease in domestic port lithium concentrate inventories, providing some bottom support for prices. ⑷ Since Jianxiawo announced its resumption of production, market trading logic has shifted from betting on whether production resumes to betting on the scale of production. Considering that capacity ramp-up will take time, a tight balance between supply and demand is expected in the short term. (5) The continued low macro sentiment has put pressure on overall commodity valuations. Coupled with the gradual digestion of expectations for the resumption of production on the supply side, lithium prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in the production schedule of downstream cathode materials and whether the pace of port inventory reduction can be sustained.

18:48:11

India's final trade deficit in June (USD billion)

Previous : 282.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 304.30

Previous

18:46:12

India's final import value in June (USD billion)

Previous : 734.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 708.40

Previous

18:46:11

India's final June exports in USD (US$ billion)

Previous : 452 Forecast : -

Published Value 404.10

Previous

18:32:12

India's June CPI year-on-year rate

Previous : 3.93% Forecast : 4.30%

Published Value 4.38%

Previous

18:20:10

[US-Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Prices Near $80, Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets, Covert Passage Becomes the Norm] ⑴ Crude oil prices surged on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery rising 2.8% to $72.83 per barrel, briefly touching $75.08. Brent crude for August delivery rose approximately 2.9% to $77.60, briefly approaching the $80 mark in early trading. ⑵ An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman stated on Monday that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had undoubtedly entered a crisis phase. Iran claimed that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz had ceased, but the US Central Command refuted this, stating that Iran did not control the strait and that traffic was unimpeded. ⑶ Ship tracking data showed that only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the lowest level in five weeks. UBS analysts pointed out that the number of so-called covert passages over the past three days has exceeded the observable volume, with vessels turning off their transponders to avoid risk. (4) Saxo Bank strategists stated that despite rising concerns about the safe passage of oil and other commodities through the Strait of Hormuz, the relatively modest premium between near-month and far-month futures contracts indicates that the spot crude oil market remains orderly. (5) Tickmill Group strategists pointed out that current Brent crude oil prices are well below the levels of $95 at the end of February after the outbreak of the conflict and $100 at the end of May. The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 4.5%, and given that current oil prices are not significantly deviating from a reasonable range, the yield rose slightly by 1.7 basis points to 4.579% on Monday. (6) The future direction of oil prices depends on the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether the US-Iran military conflict escalates further, and the progress of international mediation efforts.

17:54:15

[Geopolitical conflicts boost oil prices and inflation expectations, putting slight pressure on the pound, while safe-haven buying of the dollar strengthens] ⑴ On Monday, the foreign exchange market was affected by the renewed military conflict between the US and Iran, leading to increased risk aversion. The pound fell slightly by 0.1% against the dollar to 1.339, while the euro rebounded by 0.2% against the pound to 85.38 pence, after hitting its lowest level in a year last week. ⑵ The US and Iran continued missile and drone attacks over the weekend and on Monday. Iran struck US facilities in the region and claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz again, while the US military struck Iranian air defense systems and coastal radar stations. Brent crude oil rose 2% to $77.60 as a result. ⑶ A senior foreign exchange analyst at MUFG stated that the spillover effect in the foreign exchange market is currently mild, but the significant rise in oil prices, combined with the recent signals from the Federal Reserve considering raising interest rates to address the risk of rising inflation, could become a stronger bullish catalyst for the dollar. (4) Currency market pricing indicates that traders have increased their bets on the extent of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes this year, currently expecting a tightening of approximately 37 basis points, slightly higher than the Bank of England's 33 basis points. This interest rate differential provides additional support for the US dollar. (5) The pound has performed relatively strongly overall this year, mainly due to the slightly stronger-than-expected resilience of the UK economy. Since 2026, the pound has only depreciated by 0.6% against the dollar, far less than the 2.7% depreciation of the euro against the dollar. Its future trajectory will depend on the evolution of the US-Iran situation and the degree of divergence in the policy paths of the central banks of the UK and the US.

17:52:10

[Clay Warns of Upside Risk to UK Government Bond Yields; Political Vacuum and Fiscal Dilemma Pressure Bond Market] ⑴ Clay analysts noted in a report that UK government bond yields face the risk of further increases due to ongoing political uncertainty, putting pressure on the market to repric the risk premium for UK assets. ⑵ Following Keir Starmer's resignation in June, the UK is currently in a leadership vacuum, with the new prime minister yet to be finalized. It is widely expected that Andy Burnham will succeed Starmer on July 20, provided no other candidate challenges him within the Labour Party. ⑶ Analysts emphasize that the UK's public finances are fragile, with high deficits and debt levels, which will be a core challenge for the new prime minister. Uncertainty regarding the fiscal consolidation path may exacerbate bond market volatility. ⑷ Global bond markets have recently been under pressure due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, with yields generally rising. Against this backdrop, the increase in UK government bond yields has significantly exceeded that of similar products in the Eurozone, highlighting the additional political premium they face. (5) The focus of subsequent attention will be on the actual direction of fiscal policy after the selection of the new British prime minister, and whether the spread between British bonds and core European bonds such as German bonds will continue to widen due to changes in political risk premium.

17:46:14

[Surge in Crude Oil Prices Coupled with Strong Tire Exports Leads to Volatile Gains in Japanese Rubber Futures] ⑴ The December rubber contract on the Osaka Exchange rose 1.2 yen, or 0.29%, to close at 421 yen per kilogram on Monday. The September natural rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose 105 yuan, or 0.62%, to 16,910 yuan per ton. Butadiene rubber contracts saw even more significant gains, surging 490 yuan to 12,990 yuan per ton. ⑵ In the energy market, continued threats to energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the announcement of a new round of military strikes by the US and Iran caused oil prices to surge by over 4% in a single day, providing cost support for the rubber market. Natural rubber, due to its market share competition with synthetic rubber derived from crude oil, often follows oil price fluctuations. ⑶ A report from the Japan Exchange Group on Monday indicated that strong physical demand coupled with short covering supported the resilience of rubber prices within a range-bound trading pattern last week, limiting the short-term downside potential of the market. (4) Demand in China's tire industry remained robust, with tire exports reaching 8.51 million tons in June, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a total export value of US$20.54 billion. Strong external demand continued to drive rubber consumption. (5) The latest August rubber contract on the Singapore Exchange's SICOM platform was quoted at 215.5 US cents per kilogram, up 0.4%. Overall market sentiment in the region was positive. Going forward, attention should be paid to the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the sustainability of China's tire export orders.

17:40:10

[EU Auctions of Three Tranche Bonds (Short, Medium, and Long-Term) Highlight Steepening Yield Curve] ⑴ The European Commission completed the auction of three batches of bonds with different maturities on Monday. The average yield for bonds maturing in 2029 was 2.808%, for bonds maturing in 2033 it was 3.189%, and for bonds maturing in 2041 it was 3.833%. ⑵ Yields for the three tranches increased sequentially with longer maturities, with term spreads of approximately 38 and 64 basis points respectively, resulting in a significantly steeper yield curve. ⑶ Short-term yields remained relatively stable due to the anchoring effect of short-term interest rates in the Eurozone, while long-term rates had to bear additional risk premiums from fiscal supply pressures and uncertainties in future inflation. ⑷ The EU has recently been proceeding with its bond issuance plan at a regular pace, and the market is reassessing the pricing of ultra-long-term bonds. The supply-side factors' impact on long-term yields cannot be ignored. ⑸ The auction results show significant differences in investor preferences for bonds with different maturities. Whether demand for long-term bonds can remain resilient will depend on subsequent Eurozone inflation data and the ECB's policy path. (6) Market focus will shift to whether the yield curve will steepen further, and whether the spread between EU bonds and core sovereign bonds such as German bonds will continue to widen due to differences in supply pace.

17:38:13

[Abu Dhabi Introduces New Pricing for Off-Strait Delivery, Premium Structure Reveals Regional Supply and Demand Pattern] ⑴ Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's latest price document shows that the company will adopt a new pricing mechanism linked to the Dubai benchmark price for seaborne crude oil that can be delivered outside the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ For transactions delivered in August and completed via ship-to-ship transshipment in Fujairah, Upper Zakum and Das crude oils will have a premium of US$0.80 per barrel over the Dubai benchmark, while Umm Lulu crude oil will have a premium of US$1 per barrel. ⑶ The new pricing mechanism aims to provide buyers with options to avoid potential passage risks in the Strait of Hormuz, while the premium setting reflects the additional logistical costs and geopolitical risk premium under the Fujairah transshipment model. ⑷ All of the above crude oils are produced in oil fields within the Persian Gulf, and sales channels at existing loading locations will be retained. This move provides market participants with more flexible delivery routes and pricing references. (5) The difference in premium structure indicates that Umm Lulu crude oil has stronger premium support in terms of quality or logistical suitability, while the overall price range also reflects the tight demand for Middle Eastern light crude oil in the Asia-Pacific market. (6) The focus going forward is on whether this pricing model can attract more end-users to adjust their delivery arrangements, and whether the price spread between the Dubai benchmark and Brent and WTI will fluctuate further due to logistical substitution effects.

17:36:10

[German Short-Term Bond Auction Signals Divergence: New Bond Yields Rise, Additional Demand Cools] ⑴ The German central bank announced the results of two batches of 12-month treasury bill auctions on Monday, raising a total of approximately €492 million, but yields and bid-to-cover ratios showed a clear divergence. ⑵ The newly issued 12-month treasury bills totaled €2.15 billion, with an average yield of 2.566%, a significant increase of 15.7 basis points from the previous 2.409%, while the bid-to-cover ratio remained stable at 2.0. ⑶ The additional issuance of treasury bills of the same maturity during the same period totaled €2.772 billion, with an average yield of 2.436%, also higher than the previous level, but the bid-to-cover ratio fell from 2.0 to 1.3, indicating a significant cooling in market demand. ⑷ The yield difference between the new and additional bonds was 13 basis points, and the significant difference in bid-to-cover ratios indicates a divergence in investors' willingness to accept the new supply, suggesting that the additional batches face considerable digestion pressure. (5) The overall rise in yields reflects continued tightness in short-term interest rate expectations, but the sharp drop in the bid-to-cover ratio for additional batches may suggest that the market is becoming more cautious about the subsequent supply pace of German short-term bonds, and allocation sentiment has eased somewhat. (6) Going forward, attention should be paid to the room for adjustment of the German central bank's short-term note issuance plan, and whether the Eurozone money market's pricing of short-term interest rates will be further reassessed due to changes in supply.

17:26:12

[Nigeria's Crude Oil Production Hits Six-Year High, Quota Exceeded, Supply Pressure Resurfaces] ⑴ Data released Sunday by Nigeria's Upstream Regulatory Commission showed that the country's average daily crude oil production rose to 1.56 million barrels in June, exceeding the OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day by 4 percentage points, achieving a compliance rate of 104%. ⑵ Including condensate, which is not subject to quota restrictions, Nigeria's total oil production averaged 1.735 million barrels per day in June, continuing its upward trend from 1.7 million barrels per day in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. ⑶ This production level is the highest since April 2020, representing a peak in the past 74 months, with stable operations and improved pipeline reliability being the main driving forces. ⑷ Stable operation of production assets, coupled with the absence of major pipeline disruptions, effectively supported the efficiency of crude oil extraction and transportation, contributing to the continued release of the country's supply capacity. ⑸ The significant recovery in supply, coupled with concerns about the demand outlook triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, has led to a more cautious market expectation of supply-demand balance, strengthening the expectation of short-term downward pressure on oil prices. (6) Going forward, market attention will focus on whether Nigeria can maintain its current production levels, and the compliance of other oil-producing countries with their quotas. Supply variables may become the core disruptive factor in oil market pricing in the near term.

17:16:11

[State Council: Steadily Expand the Scope of Visa-Free Countries and Continuously Optimize Transit Visa-Free Policies] The State Council approved the "15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption," which mentions expanding inbound consumption. The plan includes optimizing the inbound consumption environment and building the "Shop in China" brand. It also calls for steadily expanding the scope of visa-free countries and continuously optimizing transit visa-free policies. Further increasing international air routes, with a focus on increasing the number of direct international flights to Europe, the United States, and countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The plan also aims to improve the international service level of public places, optimize the inbound consumption payment environment, and facilitate inbound tourists' access to fast customs clearance, accommodation registration, transportation, telecommunications services, and attraction reservations. Furthermore, it seeks to optimize measures to facilitate tax refunds for departing tourists, increase the number of tax refund shops, and actively promote "buy now, get refund now" services. It encourages more domestic products to be sold in port duty-free shops and downtown duty-free shops. Finally, it aims to create highly recognizable and attractive consumer brands, cultural landmarks, and experiential activities. Finally, it aims to cultivate international markets in education, healthcare, and conventions.

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