Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

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London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-02-13 Friday

2026-02-22

22:18:46

[PIMCO: Positive Inflation Report, Fed May Cut Rates Twice This Year] (1) Tiffany Wilding, an economist at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), said the latest US inflation report was “quite encouraging,” with two positive changes providing support for the Fed to cut rates this year. PIMCO believes that two more rate cuts this year are reasonable. (2) Structural pressures on inflation. Wilding said the first positive development was a significant slowdown in the rise of US house prices. The continuous rise in house prices since the pandemic has been curbed. According to Freddie Mac data, the US 30-year mortgage rate has stabilized below 6.3%. Although homebuying sentiment has cooled, the rate of increase in house prices has fallen to a near two-year low, and the market has returned to rationality, which has further alleviated (3) The second positive signal comes from the gradual fading of tariff-related effects. Wilding said that the inflationary pressure from tariffs was mainly concentrated in the commodity sector and the transmission process was relatively slow. However, this pressure is now continuously weakening. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has previously stated that most of the impact of tariffs has been transmitted to the economy and is expected to subside by mid-2026, which is highly consistent with the trend observed by PIMCO. As the impact of tariffs on inflation gradually diminishes, inflationary pressures will become more manageable. (4) Whiting emphasized that the continued progress of the above two positive trends will significantly reduce the Fed's policy concerns, making it more willing to initiate interest rate cuts to support the smooth operation of the economy. Considering the current pace of economic recovery and the situation of inflation control, PIMCO believes that the Fed's decision to implement two more interest rate cuts this year is a reasonable decision in line with the current economic fundamentals.

22:05:16

[Asian Oil Market: Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Recovers, High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Strengthens; Gasoline Crack Spread Plunge 21% This Week] ⑴ The Asian ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market saw a slight backwardation on Friday, after having been in contango since early February. Although barge capacity constraints pushed up marine fuel premiums earlier this month, the market remains constrained by an overall ample supply outlook. The March spot spread continued to trade at a discount, but narrowed slightly on Friday. ⑵ High-sulfur fuel oil spreads continued to widen, despite a weakening market structure this week. Against the backdrop of a slight recovery in ultra-low sulfur fuel oil, the Hi-5 spread rebounded to around $50 per tonne on Friday, widening from last week. ⑶ Fuel oil crack spreads strengthened, with 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil closing at a discount of approximately $2.35 per barrel, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising to a premium of approximately $5.25 per barrel. No transactions were recorded in the Singapore window. ⑷ The diesel market remained largely stable, but crack spreads declined from the previous day. The 10ppm diesel spot price spread remained stable to slightly higher, with some early March cargo bids strengthening. The diesel crack spread closed at around $19.50 per barrel, down from last week. (5) The jet fuel inter-month spread stabilized on Friday after fluctuating during the week, with the jet fuel/diesel spread widening to a discount of 74 cents per barrel. No transactions were recorded in the Singapore window. (6) The gasoline crack spread plummeted to about $4 per barrel, a significant narrowing from $6.06 the previous day, with a cumulative decline of about 21% this week. Rising inventories in Singapore and the United States, coupled with increased arrivals in China and South Korea in January and lower-than-expected demand, jointly pressured profits. (7) The naphtha crack spread fell by about $1 to $98.65 per ton. One gasoline transaction was recorded in the window. (8) From a supply and demand perspective, the recovery in low-sulfur fuels is limited by ample supply, while the strengthening of high-sulfur fuels reflects structural tightness. The sharp drop in gasoline prices suggests that weak end-user demand has been transmitted upstream, and refining profits face the risk of further compression.

22:03:20

[Goldman Sachs CEO: Unprecedented Mega-IPOs Expected This Year, Small-Cap Stocks Face Headwinds] ⑴ Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, in an interview with CNBC on Friday, stated that this year may see some very, very large IPOs, unprecedented in scale. However, he also pointed out that small-cap IPOs are facing headwinds. ⑵ Solomon expressed optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, stating, "We have the opportunity to operate at a higher base growth rate in the coming years," and "We can achieve very strong growth while avoiding excessive inflation." ⑶ Regarding the fiscal situation, Solomon expressed genuine concern about the persistent level of deficits. ⑷ Regarding the departure of General Counsel Kathy Ruemmler, Solomon stated that she had been an outstanding general counsel with deep expertise for the past six years. He "reluctantly accepted Ruemmler's resignation," adding, "I am disappointed that things have come to this point, but I respect her decision, and we will move forward." ⑸ From a market perspective, Solomon's prediction of mega-IPOs points to a recovery in corporate confidence and capital market activity, but the headwinds for small-cap stocks suggest that the financing environment remains differentiated. Concerns about the deficit level reflect Wall Street's long-term wariness of fiscal sustainability. ⑹ Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the actual IPOs this year, particularly whether technology and growth companies will become the main drivers of mega-IPOs, and whether the deficit issue will evolve into a macroeconomic variable affecting long-term interest rates.

21:59:36

[Russia's Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 50 Basis Points to 15.5%, Signaling Further Cuts Possible] ⑴ The Central Bank of Russia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5% on Friday, signaling the possibility of further rate cuts to support the wartime economy, which is slowing due to high borrowing costs. This rate cut comes just 10 days after Putin called on the government and the central bank to restore economic growth. ⑵ Governor Elvira Nabiullina stated that the central bank had considered maintaining the rate or cutting it by 50 basis points and debated the data on the sharp rise in prices at the beginning of the year. "We are now more confident in continuing to cut rates at the next meeting," she said, adding that a "larger step" or a "pause" might be taken in the future, but the signal was not an unconditional commitment. ⑶ The central bank's statement indicated that further rate cuts would depend on inflation, but the baseline scenario assumes an average key interest rate in the 13.5%-14.5% range by 2026. Of the 24 analysts surveyed, only 8 predicted a 50 basis point rate cut, while 16 expected the rate to remain unchanged. (4) The Russian economy showed remarkable resilience to Western sanctions during the first three years of the conflict, but slowed sharply last year due to the central bank's interest rate hikes to combat inflation. The government forecasts 1.3% growth this year, while the central bank maintains its 2026 growth forecast of 0.5%-1.5% and 1.5%-2.5% next year. (5) Capital Economics economist Nicholas Farr called the rate cut a "dovish surprise" but maintained his year-end rate forecast of 13%. The central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 4.0%-5.0% to 4.5%-5.5%, but warned of rising prices in January. Prices have risen 2.1% since the beginning of the year, an annualized rate of 6.5%, due to the government's increase in value-added tax to control the deficit. (6) Nabiullina stated that the central bank does not expect a surge in inflation, believing that the price increases at the beginning of the year have peaked. However, she warned that the ability to further cut interest rates will be limited if the budget deficit widens. Russia's public deficit could balloon to nearly three times the official target by the end of 2026 due to India's reduced oil purchases and increased revenue erosion from oil trade discounts. (7) The central bank acknowledged that Russia still faces global risks. Trump stated this month that an agreement had been reached with India, under which New Delhi would cease purchasing oil from Russia. The central bank lowered its 2026 average oil price forecast by $10 to $45 per barrel from $55 per barrel in October.

21:50:57

[El-Erian: Core CPI Meets Expectations, But the US Has Entered the Sixth Year of Inflation Exceeding Target] ⑴ Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that the US January core CPI was completely in line with market expectations, while the overall CPI was slightly lower than expected, which is good news. ⑵ However, he pointed out that what is less optimistic is that, as other inflation data shows, the US economy has now entered the sixth year that inflation has consistently exceeded the Fed's target. ⑶ Specifically, the data shows that the January core CPI remained stable at 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while the overall CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than the expected 0.3%. Annual inflation indicators declined slightly to 2.5% for core and 2.4% for overall, respectively. ⑷ The bond market reacted quickly to these data, initially pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield down to 4.08%, the lowest level this year. ⑸ From a market perspective, the lower-than-expected overall CPI provided short-term buying support for US Treasuries, but El-Erian's comments reminded the market that long-term inflation stickiness has not disappeared, and the Fed is still far from its 2% target. ⑹ Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the evolution of inflation data in the coming months, especially whether the core services and goods sub-sectors will remain resilient, as this will determine the timing and magnitude of the rebound in US Treasury yields.

21:49:31

[A Delicate Balance at the End of Powell's Tenure: Slowing Inflation but Stable Employment] ⑴ The Wall Street Journal's review of the January CPI report indicates that the January CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value and expectations; the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The non-farm payroll report released earlier this week showed that January job growth exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. ⑵ Despite the positive impact of slowing inflation and robust employment, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balance in the final months of Chairman Powell's eight-year term: curbing inflation without harming the labor market. ⑶ Aggressive interest rate hikes thwarted the price surge in 2022, but with subsiding inflation and a cooling job market, the Fed has cumulatively cut rates by nearly 2 percentage points since the summer of 2024, pausing in January. ⑷ Economists generally expect inflation to fall further in 2026, with increasing signs of easing price pressures. Companies such as PepsiCo and General Mills have announced price reductions for some products to attract budget-sensitive consumers. (5) From a policy perspective, the current combination provides the Federal Reserve with more room to maneuver: inflation is slowing but core inflation is rising slightly month-on-month, coupled with strong employment, reducing the urgency for a rate cut in the short term. However, tariffs and exchange rate factors may reignite inflationary pressures in the second half of the year. (6) The market needs to pay attention to the evolution of inflation data in the coming months, especially whether the core services and goods sub-categories will rise due to the impact of tariff transmission. This will determine the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.

21:44:18

[US January CPI Rises 0.2% Month-on-Month, Below Expectations; Core CPI Rises Slightly] ⑴ The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the January CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase in December and economists' expectations of 0.3%. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in December. ⑵ In terms of year-on-year data, the CPI rose 2.4%, a slowdown from 2.7% in December, mainly due to the high base effect from last year; the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, lower than 2.6% in December. ⑶ The January report included, for the first time, an update to the seasonal adjustment factor reflecting price changes in 2025. Economists pointed out that the core CPI data in January often exceeds expectations because the Bureau of Labor Statistics model fails to fully account for the one-off price increases at the beginning of the year. This month's increase may reflect both this beginning-of-year effect and the transmission effect of Trump's broad tariffs. ⑷ Despite the slowing inflation, a stabilizing labor market may allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. Economists predict that inflation may rebound temporarily this year due to the transmission of import tariffs and the depreciation of the US dollar last year. (5) From a policy perspective, the January CPI data provides the Federal Reserve with more room to maneuver: inflation is slowing but core inflation is rising slightly month-on-month, coupled with strong employment, reducing the urgency for a rate cut in the short term. However, tariffs and exchange rate factors may reignite inflationary pressures in the second half of the year. (6) The market needs to pay attention to the evolution of inflation data in the coming months, especially whether the core services and goods sub-categories will rise due to the transmission of tariffs, which will determine the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.

21:43:47

The seasonally adjusted US January CPI reading

Previous : 326.03 Forecast : -

Published Value 326.59

Previous

21:35:53

[US January CPI Growth Slows to 2.4% Year-on-Year, Core CPI Remains Stable at 2.5%] ⑴ Data released by the US Labor Department on Friday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, a slowdown from 2.7% in December and below economists' expectations of 2.5%. Core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations. ⑵ Two days before this inflation data release, the US announced better-than-expected January job growth, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%. The combination of slowing inflation and strong employment presents the Federal Reserve with a delicate balance in the final months of Powell's term: to curb inflation without harming the labor market. ⑶ Since the summer of 2024, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut interest rates by nearly 2 percentage points, pausing in January. Friday's inflation report was slightly delayed due to the recent partial government shutdown. The prolonged shutdown last fall created unprecedented obstacles to price data collection; the missing housing cost data for October may have artificially lowered the estimate of last year's full-year increase, but it does not affect recent month-on-month data. (4) Inflation has cooled significantly since briefly exceeding 9% in mid-2022, but persistently high price increases continue to put pressure on consumers. Recent surveys show that prices remain the top concern for the public, and complaints about the cost of living have paved the way for Trump's return to the White House and become a core issue for both parties in this year's congressional elections. (5) Most economists expect inflation to decline further in 2026, with signs indicating that price pressures are easing. Companies such as PepsiCo and General Mills have stated that they are lowering prices on some products to attract budget-sensitive consumers, suggesting that demand may no longer be sufficient to support companies passing on costs. (6) Surveys and financial market evidence show that neither consumers nor investors are overly concerned about a resurgence in inflation. This is reassuring because the expectation of rising prices may prompt people to make purchases in advance or demand pay rises, thus creating self-fulfilling inflation expectations.

21:33:38

The year-on-year rate of the U.S. housing CPI in January - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 3.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 3%

Previous

21:33:34

U.S. used car and truck CPI year-on-year rate for January - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 1.60% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.20%

Previous

21:33:29

U.S. new car CPI year-on-year rate for January - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

21:33:24

U.S. energy CPI year-on-year rate for January - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 2.30% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10%

Previous

21:33:18

U.S. food CPI year-on-year rate for January - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.90%

Previous

21:32:09

The total CPI index of the United States in January

Previous : 317.01 Forecast : -

Published Value 317.94

Previous

21:31:08

The monthly rate of the US CPI in January was not adjusted seasonally

Previous : -0.02% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.37%

Previous

21:31:04

The seasonally adjusted core CPI reading for the United States in January

Previous : 331.86 Forecast : -

Published Value 332.79

Previous

21:30:10

The year-on-year rate of core CPI in the United States for January was not adjusted seasonally

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : 2.50%

Neutral

Published Value 2.50%

Previous

21:30:06

The seasonally adjusted monthly rate of core CPI in the United States for January

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

21:30:06

The seasonally adjusted monthly rate of the US CPI in January

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.30%

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

21:30:05

The January CPI reading in the United States was not seasonally adjusted

Previous : 324.05 Forecast : 325.41

Published Value 325.25

Previous

21:30:05

The year-on-year rate of the US CPI in January was not adjusted seasonally

Previous : 2.70% Forecast : 2.50%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 2.40%

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