Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

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Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2025-12-12 Friday

2025-12-20

21:00:05

Russia's foreign trade in October

Previous : 135.95 Forecast : -

Published Value 111.43

Previous

20:59:33

[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Sector Under Overall Pressure, Edible Oils Weak, Corn Slightly Strong] ⑴ Palm oil's rebound failed and it continued to fall. Rapeseed oil futures rebounded to above 9600 yuan in spot prices, completing basis repair. Soybean oil, with less elasticity, followed the downward trend. ⑵ Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1st to 10th decreased by 10% compared to the previous period, while production increased by 6%. The core issues of inventory accumulation and weak exports remain unresolved, and prices may continue to decline. ⑶ The spot market reacted relatively slowly. In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 8550 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil was 8530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. ⑷ Soybean meal futures have been fluctuating recently, with US soybeans gradually returning to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, resulting in a pullback in the market. (5) Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and continued domestic pressure. Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing prices to stabilize. Short-term, it is recommended to sell on rallies. (6) Corn prices have recently declined, and farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to increased selling activity. However, inventory at northern ports remains low compared to the same period last year. (7) The logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks, while continuously monitoring changes in farmers' selling sentiment. (8) Hog prices are currently strong due to the approaching winter solstice and peak season for cured meat production. News of hog disease in northern China has also contributed to a price rebound. (9) However, the long-term supply situation remains loose. It is recommended to try shorting the hog 03 contract with a small position on rallies, while monitoring the slaughtering pace and the peak season demand during the winter solstice. (10) Egg spot prices have recently been mainly range-bound. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is currently still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. 11. It is suggested that short positions may be entered at appropriate times, but the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices should be continuously monitored.

20:59:08

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector: Geopolitical Disturbances and Weak Demand Struggle, Most Commodities Expected to Trade Weakly] ⑴ Recent geopolitical tensions have become more complex. The US intervention in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has had limited effect, and a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. ⑵ The US National Security Strategy report designates the Western Hemisphere as a "core interest zone" and a "homeland security zone," and is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast. Geopolitical uncertainty supports oil prices. ⑶ Crude oil prices encountered resistance and fell back between the 20- and 60-day moving averages. Downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. ⑷ Regarding fuel oil, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue but are unlikely to yield results in the short term. The probability of a US military strike against Venezuela is increasing. ⑸ The expectation of reduced high-sulfur fuel oil supply due to sanctions remains, but fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit with weak fluctuations due to weakening downstream demand. ⑹ In the glass market, despite upstream production cuts, the market is concerned that a premature rebound in prices could lead to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans. Furthermore, midstream inventories are large, and the valuation of the May contract has begun to decline. (7) Demand weakened significantly year-on-year, losses worsened, and expectations for float glass cold repairs and production conversion strengthened, but the supply-demand pattern has not yet reversed. Upstream inventory decreased by 2.05% this week, but midstream inventory remained high, indicating a clear "low valuation and weak driver," and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. (8) Regarding soda ash, the Alashan Phase II plant was ignited, and the new production line at Yinghua Chemical will also be ignited, further highlighting supply and demand pressures. (9) On Thursday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 0.82 million tons compared to Monday. Today, the soda ash operating rate was 84.22%, with basis offers for Hebei warehouse delivery at flat to 01-20, and Shahe delivery at 01+10 to 20. (10) With maintenance support, soda ash can basically achieve a supply-demand balance, but the market is suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and overcapacity; short selling on rallies is advisable. (11) In the caustic soda market, liquid soda prices remained stable in some regions. A few companies in southwestern Shandong slightly lowered prices due to poor sales at high prices, while the overall inventory in northern Shandong remained low, with expectations of further price increases. 12. The sharp drop in liquid chlorine prices supported the temporary stability of liquid caustic soda prices, and domestic inventories began to decline (down 9.46% month-on-month), slightly improving the supply and demand situation. However, caustic soda remains in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the weak reality continues. Furthermore, the continued decline in alumina prices strengthens expectations of production cuts, and non-aluminum products are in the off-season. Therefore, caustic soda prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at low levels. 13. In the methanol market, today's spot price in Taicang was 2092 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region was 1965 yuan, down 17.5 yuan. 14. The inland methanol market is weak. Auction transactions at enterprises were relatively smooth, while the basis in the port methanol market was weak, and negotiated transactions were generally average. 15. This week, factory inventories decreased by 0.87 million tons, and port inventories decreased by 11.5 million tons. However, absolute methanol inventories are still high. Due to the risk of reduced imports in the far-month market caused by Iranian gas restrictions, the near-term outlook remains weak while the far-term outlook remains strong. The methanol market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with price fluctuations narrowing.

20:58:03

[Caixin Futures: Macroeconomic Support for Non-ferrous Metals and New Energy Sectors Leads to Divergent Price Movements] ⑴ On the macro front, US initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected, marking the largest weekly increase since the pandemic, putting pressure on the US dollar index and supporting non-ferrous metal prices. ⑵ Copper prices continued to rise, breaking through 94,000 yuan/ton. Tight imports and normal domestic deliveries further supported prices. ⑶ Strategically, a buy-on-dips approach is recommended, but the market is currently in a phase of priced-in gains, so caution is advised regarding market sentiment changes after the positive news has been fully priced in. ⑷ Zinc prices are supported by marginal tightening at the mining end, with seasonal mine shutdowns and smelter winter stockpiling providing fundamental support. ⑸ In the long term, with increased supply and stable demand, the zinc supply-demand balance tends to have a surplus. The realization of this surplus expectation depends on further transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. ⑹ Precious metal prices rose further due to increased risk aversion, and long-term prices remain supported. A buy-on-dips approach is advisable, but caution is also needed regarding sentiment changes after the positive news has been priced in. (7) The alumina supply and demand situation remains loose, with prices continuing to decline. Some high-cost enterprises are already facing losses but have not yet reduced production on a large scale. (8) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, and the overall oversupply situation is unlikely to improve in the short term. Spot and futures prices will remain weak, but the downside potential is gradually narrowing, and shorting is not advisable in the short term. (9) The Fed's third rate cut has released expectations of a looser policy, coupled with the domestic clear statement that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy next year, making the overall macro environment more favorable. (10) Against the backdrop of favorable macro environment and expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum remains unchanged, and the strategy remains to buy on dips. (11) The lithium carbonate market is currently in a short-term battle between bulls and bears, with significant uncertainty in the news. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines. (12) With energy storage demand exceeding expectations, demand remains supported. The view of a rise in the medium- to long-term price center remains unchanged, and the strategy remains to buy on dips. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of supply-side projects and changes in inventory.

20:57:00

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Continues to Diverge, with Diverse Drivers Among Varieties] ⑴ Steel inventories continue to decline, easing high inventory pressure, but remain at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. ⑵ Current demand expectations are weak, coupled with a continued decline in pig iron production, gradually weakening cost support. ⑶ The rebar 05 contract showed a declining trend with reduced volume, with the top 20 positions showing an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions; the hot-rolled coil 05 contract saw a more significant increase in long positions, with overall position changes leaning towards the bullish side. ⑷ The steel market itself has limited industry-driven factors, and prices may mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with limited upside and downside potential. It is recommended to closely monitor the pace and intensity of raw material winter stockpiling. ⑸ The continued decline in pig iron production weakens the rigid demand for iron ore, and port inventories continue to accumulate and remain at an absolute high level, putting overall price pressure. ⑹ Steel mills' imported iron ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years, and with the winter stockpiling period approaching, the expected bottom support is gradually strengthening. (7) The top 20 positions in the iron ore 05 contract mainly reduced short positions, and the price is likely to fluctuate within the 745-775 yuan range in the short term, lacking a clear unilateral driver. (8) The coking coal market maintains a pattern of intertwined "weak reality" and "weak expectations." After entering December, the scope of coal mine production cuts expanded, and the supply in producing areas continued to tighten. (9) The top 20 positions in the main 05 contract significantly reduced short positions, and some floating profits began to be realized. Prices may have approached a stage bottom, and valuations are low, making it unprofitable to continue shorting. (10) Regarding coke, some coking plants' production was restricted due to environmental protection measures, resulting in a tightening supply. After the second round of price reductions was implemented, steel mill purchases rebounded somewhat, but overall purchasing sentiment remained weak. (11) The coke 01 contract price has already priced in about five rounds of price reduction expectations, while the spot market generally expects only three rounds. The pessimistic expectation of a decline in spot prices has been fully reflected in the futures market, and valuations have entered a low range. 12. Operating rates at ferromanganese manufacturers have risen slightly, while demand continues to decline. With supply increasing and demand decreasing, inventories continue to rise. However, manganese ore prices remain stable, and manufacturers are inclined to maintain prices. Therefore, short-term price fluctuations may be limited. Attention should be paid to whether the 5660-5800 yuan trading range of the March contract can be effectively broken.

20:54:57

[Interest Rate Cut Expectations Strongly Attract Funds, Ending Three-Week Outflow for US Equity Funds] ⑴ Fund flow data shows that in the week ending December 10, US equity funds received a net inflow of $3.3 billion, the first weekly net purchase in three weeks, almost completely reversing the previous week's net outflow of $3.52 billion. ⑵ This return of funds coincides with market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, indicating that investors are repositioning themselves in risk assets before the central bank's easing policies are implemented. ⑶ In terms of industry sectors, US equity sector funds saw a net inflow of $2.81 billion, the largest weekly inflow since the week of October 22. The metals and mining, industrial, and healthcare sectors attracted the most significant inflows. ⑷ The bond market also received favorable treatment, with US bond funds seeing a net purchase of $3.49 billion this week, far exceeding the previous week's figure. Investors particularly favored short- to medium-term investment-grade bond funds, injecting $2.61 billion, the largest inflow in seven weeks. (5) Meanwhile, money market funds saw a net outflow of $4.58 billion, a stark contrast to the massive net inflow of $105.03 billion the previous week. (6) Despite the overall return of funds, market sentiment is not entirely optimistic. Investors remain skeptical about the slowdown in earnings guidance from technology companies, particularly Oracle, and especially regarding the investment return cycle in the artificial intelligence sector. This could lead to increased rotation of funds between sectors in the future.

20:38:21

[US Treasury "Bear Steepening" Storm Strikes, Global Bond Market Pressure Transmitted to Wall Street] ⑴ The US Treasury market experienced a significant "bear steepening" overnight, with long-term yields jumping 3-4 basis points in the absence of major news. This sell-off was primarily driven by two factors, reinforced by several secondary factors. ⑵ The primary driver was post-auction position distribution trading. After absorbing $39 billion in 10-year and $22 billion in 30-year Treasury supply, investors (including many institutions) chose to take profits on long positions after the recent rise, exacerbating selling pressure. ⑶ Secondly, the market is hedging and positioning for next week's data deluge, including the November jobs report, CPI data, and more long-term Treasury issuances. This could be one of the last few important trading days for high-grade bond issuances before the end of the year. ⑷ Among the secondary factors, pressure in the global bond market was the biggest driver, adding a term premium to US long-term Treasury bonds. The Japanese government bond market is the biggest concern, as its investors hold over $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds and MBS. The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has fallen 10 basis points from its recent high. (5) Media reports reveal the transmission logic of pressure in the global bond market: rising yields in other major economies may spill over into the US market, attracting funds away from US Treasuries. If Japanese government bond yields continue to climb, it could put pressure on the long end of all markets (including the US). (6) Another focus is the interaction between US domestic politics and the central bank. Media reports detailed the process by which the Federal Reserve Board unanimously voted to re-elect regional Fed presidents. This usually low-key administrative process has received unusual attention this year due to related pressures, raising concerns about the central bank's independence. (7) Today, the market will focus on speeches by three Fed officials, particularly the comments from Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a hawkish dissident who held a hawkish stance at Wednesday's meeting. Interestingly, he was one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee before the election.

20:00:06

Mexico's industrial output monthly rate in October

Previous : -0.40% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value 0.70%

Previous

20:00:04

Mexico's annual rate of industrial output in October

Previous : -2.40% Forecast : -2.20%

Published Value -0.40%

Previous

20:00:03

Brazil's annual growth rate of the service sector in October - private non-financial sector

Previous : 4.10% Forecast : 2.50%

Published Value 2.20%

Previous

20:00:03

Brazil's service sector growth rate in October - private non-financial sector

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

19:41:48

[US and European Central Banks Completely Diverge, German Bond Yields Surge to Nine-Month High] ⑴ German government bond yields rose further on Friday, nearing a nine-month high, with the 10-year yield climbing to 2.17%, a gain of about 6 basis points this week, reflecting that the market has begun pricing in the possibility of future interest rate hikes in the Eurozone. ⑵ This contrasts sharply with the US market, where the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates next year. This divergence in monetary policy expectations has narrowed the yield spread between US and German 2-year government bonds to 135.34 basis points, the smallest since May 2023. ⑶ The immediate catalyst for the rising yields was comments this week from influential European Central Bank policymaker Isabelle Schnabel, who hinted that the next step in interest rate action could be a rate hike, although some institutions believe this signal is premature and unlikely to gain widespread support within the Governing Council. ⑷ Money market pricing indicates that traders have completely ruled out the possibility of an ECB rate cut in 2026 and expect a rate hike by March 2027 to be around 58%. (5) Deutsche Bank forecasts the ECB's final policy rate to be 2%, with its baseline scenario being the next rate hike in mid-2027, triggered by a shift in inflation risks driven by a combination of fiscal easing and a tight labor market. (6) Despite expectations of rate hikes, some institutions see value in German bonds. UBS strategists recommend going long on German government bonds, arguing that their term premium is too high given Germany's long-term growth and inflation prospects. Other analysts believe the US-German interest rate differential offers investors an opportunity to capitalize on this difference. (7) The market will closely watch next week's intensive central bank decisions and the delayed US employment data to confirm or correct the current trading logic of the divergence between US and European monetary policies.

19:31:42

The operating rates of soybean crushing at major oil mills across China as of December 12th

Previous : 56.55% Forecast : -

Published Value 56.05%

Previous

19:31:32

The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across China as of December 12th

Previous : 205.58 Forecast : -

Published Value 203.75

Previous

19:30:22

The year-on-year growth rate of bank loans in India for the week ending November 24

Previous : 11.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 11.50%

Previous

19:30:21

India's foreign exchange reserves for the week ending December 1

Previous : 6862.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 6872.60

Previous

19:30:21

India's annual rate of deposit growth for the week ending November 24

Previous : 10.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 10.20%

Previous

19:30:05

[Global LNG Market Enters Winter Without "Coldness," Ample Supply Causes Asian Spot Prices to Fall to Nearly Two-Year Low] ⑴ Asian spot LNG prices fell to a 20-month low this week. The average price of LNG delivered to Northeast Asia in January is estimated at $10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 2024, while the price for February delivery is estimated at $9.60. ⑵ The main reason for the price decline is the continued abundance of global LNG supply, coupled with mild weather in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which has suppressed heating demand. Analysts predict that the heating index in Northeast Asia will remain below the ten-year average for the next two weeks. ⑶ The weak prices have stimulated purchasing interest from some price-sensitive buyers. Indian buyers and Chinese importers have shown some buying interest, but this is mainly opportunistic purchasing, as major utilities in Northeast Asia still have relatively ample inventory. ⑷ The European market is also under pressure. Its January LNG delivery benchmark is significantly discounted compared to the local TTF gas hub price. Investment fund positioning, mild weather, and ample pipeline gas and LNG imports have collectively maintained a bearish market sentiment. (5) Cross-regional arbitrage opportunities have shifted. Arbitrage opportunities for US goods shipped to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope have expanded, but are now more strongly directed towards the European market; while arbitrage opportunities via the Panama Canal have narrowed to break-even levels. (6) The current market exhibits structural characteristics: commercial operators are using low prices to build up inventory or hedge, driving net long positions to record highs, while hedge funds are expanding net short positions. The battle between long and short positions continues against the backdrop of low winter inventory levels.

19:29:05

[Giants Defy Trend and Bet on Google! JPMorgan Chase Heavy Bets on Google, Revealing the "Golden" Logic of the AI Sector] ⑴ JPMorgan Chase released a research report raising its target price for Alphabet (Google) from $340 to $385, explicitly listing it as its top investment pick for 2026. ⑵ The bank's core logic for being bullish on Google lies in its belief that Google possesses leadership in artificial intelligence, a superior technology stack, data advantages, and a globally distributed network. These factors will collectively drive accelerated growth and stable profit margins for the company. ⑶ The report specifically points out that as artificial intelligence drives higher returns on investment and television advertising budgets continue to shift online, Google's core businesses—search and YouTube advertising—will have healthy long-term growth potential. ⑷ Regarding cloud computing, JPMorgan Chase believes that strong demand driven by artificial intelligence will accelerate the growth of Google Cloud, with a growth rate expected to reach over 40%. ⑸ The report also mentions that the rapid expansion of Waymo, Google's self-driving car company, proves that the company possesses strong innovation and execution capabilities beyond its core search and cloud businesses. (6) Market consensus remains positive. According to institutional data, 56 out of 65 brokerages covering the stock have given it a "buy" rating or higher, with a median target price of $322.50. JPMorgan Chase's view is significantly higher than the general market expectation.

19:27:30

[AI Frenzy Suffers "Oracle Curse": Trillion-Dollar Capital Expenditure Sparks Valuation Concerns] ⑴ A disappointing report from Oracle Corporation severely impacted the booming AI-related stock market. Its massive debt-financed AI investments and significant upward revision of its fiscal year 2026 capital expenditure forecast triggered market concerns about overvaluation and a bubble in AI, causing the stock price to plummet by over 16% in a single day. ⑵ This event reignited market scrutiny of the AI industry's capital expenditure frenzy and uncertain returns. Investors are worried about the unclear timeline for AI investment returns and are becoming increasingly selective, unwilling to indiscriminately reward massive expenditures. ⑶ However, market opinions are significantly divided. Some investors believe this is a unique problem for Oracle, whose cash flow and financial strength cannot compare with true tech giants like Microsoft and Google, and does not represent the overall predicament of the AI industry. ⑷ Market data shows that investors remain highly cautious about shorting AI giants, with short-selling interest mainly concentrated on small and mid-cap AI concept stocks rather than leading companies. This indicates that the market has not formed a broad and coordinated bearish bet on an AI bubble. (5) A key sign of market resilience is that despite the sharp declines in the share prices of companies like Oracle, the S&P 500 still closed higher on Thursday, hitting a record high, suggesting that the market may be undergoing a healthy sector rotation rather than a systemic collapse. (6) The core challenge now lies in whether the market can successfully shift from overly enthusiastic speculative trading to a more fundamentally driven logic focused on actual earnings and cash flow without triggering a significant overall index correction. So far, the market is attempting this difficult transition.

19:25:01

[Market Expectations Show Diverging Policy Paths Among Major Central Banks; Fed and Bank of England May Be the Only Two to Cut Rates] ⑴ Market pricing indicates that traders' expectations for 2026 have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes, with most major central banks adopting a more hawkish stance, except for the Federal Reserve. ⑵ The Fed is expected to cut rates by 54 basis points by the end of 2026, with a 73% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting; the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 61 basis points, with a 90% probability of a rate cut at its next meeting. ⑶ The Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points, with a 93% probability of holding rates steady at its next meeting; the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 10 basis points, with a 100% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. ⑷ The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 67 basis points, with a 76% probability of a rate hike at its next meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates by 40 basis points, with an 82% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. ⑸ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise rates by 58 basis points, with a 97% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting; the Swiss National Bank is expected to raise rates by 6 basis points, with a 100% probability of maintaining the rate at its next meeting. (6) Currently, only the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are still expected to cut interest rates several times before 2026. This divergence in monetary policy may put pressure on the US dollar and the British pound, but hawkish repricing triggered by economic data could also create trading opportunities. (7) Next week, the market will see the US non-farm payroll report and consumer price index data. This will be a crucial week, with the focus mainly on the non-farm payroll report, as the Federal Reserve continues to pay close attention to the labor market situation. (8) Strong data, especially a decline in the unemployment rate, could trigger a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations, thereby boosting the US dollar and putting pressure on stocks and precious metals. (9) Conversely, weak data will support expectations of further interest rate cuts, and the trend may continue. The US dollar may continue to weaken, stocks may reach new highs, and precious metals will remain strong.

19:06:25

[Christmas Can't Save Us? UK Retail Alarms Sounded as Holiday Spending Faces a "Cold Wave"] ⑴ British retailer Card Factory issued a profit warning on Friday, expecting its adjusted pre-tax profit for the current fiscal year to fall by 9% to 16.6%, to between £55 million and £60 million, due to weak sales performance that has persisted into the crucial holiday shopping season. ⑵ The company operates over 1,000 stores in the UK and Ireland, selling soft toys, gifts, Christmas cards, and decorations. It stated that weak consumer sentiment in recent months has impacted shopping behavior and damaged foot traffic on high streets. ⑶ This "shocking" warning caused its share price to plummet 27%, hitting a more than three-year low. Analysts say this raises questions about whether the company's shift towards festive products will make it more vulnerable to economic cycles. ⑷ Its warning echoes official data, which showed on Friday that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months to October, with retail sales performing particularly poorly in October. (5) In contrast, its online gift retail rival Moonpig reported strong half-year revenue growth on Wednesday, saying the second half had gotten off to a good start, including Black Friday. (6) Despite surveys predicting a possible rebound in holiday spending after a slow start, Card Factory's warning undoubtedly serves as a wake-up call for the UK retail sector and the overall health of consumers, putting market confidence to the test.

19:04:50

[High-sulfur fuel oil rebounds alone, year-end liquidity crunch cannot mask structural changes] ⑴ The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market strengthened this weekend, with firmer buying offers emerging despite the year-end trading slowdown. ⑵ On Friday, the spot price spread for Singapore 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil widened as the discount of market buying offers relative to cargo prices narrowed, and the discount structure of its near-month futures contract also contracted compared to the previous day. ⑶ However, the market showed structural divergence, with the terminal bunkering market remaining weak, its prices basically in line with cargo prices, while demand for bunkering deliveries this week remained sluggish. ⑷ In contrast, the ultra-low sulfur fuel oil market saw little change amid quiet trading, but the discount structure of its near-month contract also narrowed. ⑸ Regarding crack spreads, both types of oil recorded increases this week. Data from institutions shows that the crack spread for very low sulfur fuel oil closed at a premium of approximately $4.30 per barrel on Friday, while the crack spread for 380-cst high sulfur fuel oil remained at a discount of approximately $8.10 per barrel. (6) Inventory data is putting pressure on prices. Data from a Dutch consulting firm shows that fuel oil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region rose 10.5% to 1.13 million tons in the week ending December 11. (7) The current market exhibits typical year-end characteristics, namely, decreased liquidity amplifying price volatility. However, the price spread between high and low sulfur fuel oil products continues to reflect the long-term structural impact of the International Maritime Organization's environmental regulations.

18:31:12

India's CPI annual rate in November

Previous : 0.25% Forecast : 0.70%

Published Value 0.71%

Previous

18:19:04

[Italy's "Tax Increase Packages": Parcel Tax and Doubled Financial Transaction Tax Target E-commerce and Capital Markets] ⑴ The Italian government plans to introduce a series of tax increases to boost revenue, including a new tax on small parcels from non-EU countries and a significant increase in the financial transaction tax rate. ⑵ According to amendments submitted to parliament, Rome will levy a €2 tax on small parcels valued at no more than €150, expected to generate €122.5 million in revenue next year, and €245 million each in 2027 and 2028. ⑶ This parcel tax is aimed at online platforms such as Shein and Temu to protect their fashion industry from low-cost imports mainly from China, consistent with proposals under discussion at the EU level. ⑷ Simultaneously, the government plans to increase taxes on the transfer of stocks and other financial instruments, expected to generate an additional €337 million in revenue from next year. Specifically, the transaction tax rate in unregulated markets will increase from 0.2% to 0.4%, and the rate in regulated markets will increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. (5) As part of a package of new measures, the premium tax rate for vehicle accident insurance will increase significantly from the current 2.5% to 12.5%, while banks' ability to use past losses to offset tax bills will be further restricted. (6) Government documents show that Italy has abandoned its plan to eliminate tax breaks for short-term rentals; landlords will still enjoy a preferential tax rate of 21% on rental income from a single property, instead of the standard 26%. However, the ruling party has agreed to lower the threshold for registering short-term rental activities as commercial activities (meaning a heavier tax burden and additional costs) from five properties to three. (7) These measures highlight Italy's attempt, under fiscal pressure, to strike a balance between increasing revenue, protecting domestic industries, and addressing social concerns such as over-tourism and rising rents through tax system adjustments.

18:10:11

[Trump Unleashes Nine Punches in One Day] ⑴ On the Russia-Ukraine issue, Trump pledged that if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement, the United States will contribute to subsequent security efforts and is weighing whether to participate in the relevant multilateral talks to be held in Paris on Saturday. ⑵ Regarding Venezuela, the Trump administration announced new sanctions on Thursday against three nephews of Venezuelan President Maduro, one associated businessman, and six companies that transport Venezuelan oil. Trump himself hinted that the scope of US action could soon "extend from the sea to the land." ⑶ On domestic economic policy, Trump issued an executive order requiring the SEC to review and potentially restrict rules for agency advisory firms to weaken their ability to influence the decisions of publicly traded companies. ⑷ According to media reports, the US Treasury Department is preparing to release a corporate tax relief package aimed at allowing companies to fully utilize existing R&D tax credits under the tax law. This move could be released as early as next week. ⑸ On energy and environmental policy, Trump signed several congressional measures on Thursday that repealed the Biden administration's restrictions on energy development on the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and on federal land in three western states. (6) On foreign policy front, Trump spoke by phone with Indian Prime Minister Modi on the 11th to discuss expanding bilateral trade and strengthening energy cooperation. (7) Trump posted on social media praising the recent record highs reached by the US stock market.

18:05:28

[Dollar Falls, Pound Trembles: A Major Turning Point for Global Currencies?] ⑴ The US dollar index stabilized around 98.34 on Friday, but is expected to fall for the third consecutive week, by about 0.64%, bringing its year-to-date decline to over 9%, potentially marking its largest annual drop since 2017. ⑵ The main reason for the dollar's weakness is market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next year. Despite uncertainty surrounding the policy path, traders have already priced in two rate cuts in 2026, a divergence from the relatively cautious forecasts of Fed officials. ⑶ The pound held steady against the dollar around 1.3383, near a seven-week high. Although data showed the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the August-October period, this actually strengthened market expectations of an imminent Bank of England rate cut. ⑷ The euro also performed strongly against the dollar, trading around 1.1737. European currencies are all on track for their third consecutive week of gains against the dollar. (5) The yen weakened slightly against the dollar to 155.87, with market focus shifting to next week's Bank of Japan meeting, where a rate hike is widely expected, and attention is focused on its guidance on the interest rate path until 2026. (6) The Swiss franc stabilized at 0.7951 against the dollar, after the Swiss National Bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, noting that the recent agreement to reduce tariffs on US goods improved the economic outlook. (7) The sharp fluctuations in the currency markets reflect a divergence in the policy cycles of major central banks globally, moving away from synchronized tightening. Economic data and political factors (such as the US election year and Trump's tariff rhetoric) are exacerbating market volatility and uncertainty.

18:00:44

[Renault Makes a Strategic U-Turn, Cutting "Future Businesses," 80 Jobs Lost] ⑴ French automaker Renault announced on Friday a major restructuring of its Mobilize division, which focuses on new transportation solutions, to concentrate investments on more profitable projects. ⑵ As part of the restructuring, Renault will close its Zity car-sharing service in Milan and Madrid and halt its Duo micro electric vehicle project, while significantly scaling back its fast-charging station network expansion plans. ⑶ Renault explicitly stated that it is discontinuing other businesses with "limited profit prospects or that do not directly serve the Group's strategic priorities." ⑷ This restructuring will result in the elimination of approximately 80 of the 450 positions in the Mobilize Beyond Automotive division, with the company prioritizing voluntary departures and internal transfers. ⑸ Under the new plan, Renault's charging network targets have been significantly lowered. The plan is to build 100 charging stations in France and over 100 in Italy by the end of 2026, far below the previous target of 650 charging stations across Europe by 2028. Planned projects in Belgium and Spain have been abandoned. (6) The head of Renault's energy business explained that this move was made against the backdrop of a challenging environment in the automotive industry and the company's need to adjust its capital allocation and finance multiple investments. (7) This move signifies a significant shift in Renault's strategic focus under the new CEO, moving from investing in the future mobility ecosystem to prioritizing core profitability and cash flow.

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