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2026-05-23 Saturday

2026-05-30

10:28:30

[Global Bond Markets Enter Danger Zone; 30-Year US Treasury Yield May Surge to 6% Within a Year] ⑴ This month, bond yields have risen to levels that have sounded alarm bells in financial markets. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury note reached 5.20% on May 19, the highest since mid-2007 (before the 2008-09 financial crisis); the 10-year yield touched 4.68% on the same day before falling back, but still remained above 4.50%. Yields on UK, German, and Japanese government bonds also climbed in tandem. ⑵ Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, pointed out three reasons for this round of bond yield increases: countries borrowed heavily in response to the impact of the pandemic, and the deficits have not seen substantial reduction since; inflation is higher and more volatile than before the pandemic. US federal debt held by the public exceeded 100% of GDP at the beginning of this quarter, approaching the post-World War II record of 106%. The Congressional Budget Office projects a budget deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2026, with an average annual deficit of 6.1% over the next decade, far exceeding the 50-year average of 3.8%. (3) Geopolitical conditions are driving up military spending, with the Trump administration seeking a 44% increase to a record $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. An even greater budget burden comes from accumulated interest payments from past borrowing sprees, with annualized interest payments in the US exceeding $1 trillion. The futures market currently projects a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike of at least 25 basis points before December, a stark contrast to the two rate cuts anticipated at the beginning of the year. (4) A recent Bank of America fund manager survey shows that 62% of respondents expect the 30-year Treasury yield to break through 6% within the next 12 months. Brown Brothers Harriman currency analysts point out that a danger signal arises when government borrowing costs exceed nominal GDP growth—the UK 10-year government bond yield is nearly 5%, exceeding the average annual nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8%; the Japanese 10-year government bond yield has surged to over 2.50%, far exceeding the country's ten-year average annual nominal GDP growth rate of 1.9%. The US Treasury is attempting to control interest costs by favoring short-term Treasury bill issuance, but this strategy could backfire if the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates.

10:14:47

[China's Space Station to Achieve Lunar Landing by 2030 Will Be Supported by These Three Aspects] This morning (May 23), a press conference on the Shenzhou-23 manned space mission was held at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The spokesperson explained that the Chinese space station, as a national-level space laboratory, will provide strong support for the lunar exploration project in three main aspects. First, the space station mission has cultivated a team of astronauts with extensive spaceflight experience, providing a solid talent pool for selecting astronauts for future manned lunar landing missions. Second, the space station has been operating stably in orbit for nearly four years, deploying and verifying a series of key technologies for manned lunar landing. For example, the recently launched Tianzhou-10 cargo spacecraft mission carried out a microgravity environment surface tension tank liquid sloshing test, mainly to verify the accuracy and rationality of the technical specifications set for manned lunar landing-related spacecraft. Third, the new generation of near-Earth manned space transportation system, composed of the Long March 10A carrier rocket and the Mengzhou spacecraft, used in the space station mission, is integrated with the Long March 10 carrier rocket and Mengzhou lunar landing spacecraft system required for the lunar exploration project. Through multiple space station flight missions over the next two years, its technological maturity and mission reliability will be comprehensively improved, laying a solid foundation for the first manned lunar landing. Furthermore, the long-term on-orbit operation of the space station can also provide a larger and more comprehensive on-orbit platform for future lunar scientific research and deep space exploration missions. (CCTV News)

10:13:35

[Short-Term US Treasury Yields Rise Against the Trend, Consumer Confidence Plunges to Rock Bottom] ⑴ Short-term US Treasury yields surged on Friday, with the two-year yield rising 4.4 basis points to 4.123%, as investors digested data showing a record low in May's US consumer confidence index. The five-year yield rose 1.3 basis points to 4.255%, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 1.1 basis points to 4.557%. ⑵ A University of Michigan consumer survey showed that US consumer confidence plummeted to a record low in May, affected by soaring gasoline prices due to the war in Iran. High energy prices have exacerbated investors' inflation concerns and increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. The spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields was last reported at 43.5 basis points. ⑶ A portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management stated that inflation has been above the Fed's target for five or six consecutive years, and even disregarding the war factor, the environment for Treasury yields is more severe, with the market believing the Fed's next move will be an interest rate hike. According to the FedWatch tool, investors currently expect a 66.6% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. (4) Following the swearing-in of Warsh, the new Fed chairman appointed by Trump, the future path of interest rates remains uncertain. Warsh stated he will lead a reform-oriented Fed, moving away from rigid frameworks and models. A senior fixed-income portfolio manager at SEI Investments believes Warsh will not attempt to change the Fed's long-standing independence, and the market expects policy continuity. The 30-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since July 2007 on Tuesday, before falling 3 basis points to 5.064% at the close.

10:13:23

[US-Germany Interest Rate Spread Widens to Nine-Month High, Eurozone Bond Yields Fall Sharply] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields fell sharply on Friday as investors reacted to signs of progress in US-Iran peace talks, and lower oil prices pulled government borrowing costs away from multi-year highs reached earlier this week. The yield on German 10-year bonds fell 7 basis points to 3.0334%, its lowest level since May 11; the yield on Italian 10-year bonds also hit its lowest level since the same day during the session. ⑵ The yield on German 10-year bonds touched a 15-year high of 3.2% on Tuesday as the Iran war caused energy prices to surge and triggered a sell-off in global bond markets, with investors beginning to price in expectations of interest rate hikes. Brent crude fell to around $104.41 a barrel on Thursday, down from $113 on Monday, as both the US and Iran indicated progress in negotiations. An ING senior interest rate strategist said that although the signals are sometimes contradictory, there are signs of progress, and at least the gap between the two sides' positions is narrowing. (3) The spread between the yields on 10-year US and German government bonds widened to over 154 basis points on Thursday, the highest since August 2025, reaching 154.06 basis points. In May, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose nearly 18 basis points to over 4.5%, a 16-month high; while the average yield on bonds from other G7 countries rose only 6 basis points, and German bonds only about 3 basis points. The head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities stated that the repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations is the main factor driving the rise in US interest rates. (4) Money market traders now expect the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by about 65 basis points this year, down from over 70 basis points earlier this week. The market believes there is about a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year, while pre-war expectations were for two rate cuts. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, the war with Iran would still push up inflation in the Eurozone.

10:11:12

The amount of whole pigs refrigerated in the United States in April -USDA monthly

Previous : 0.99 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10

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10:08:12

The total amount of pork refrigerated in the United States in April -USDA monthly

Previous : 4.11 Forecast : -

Published Value 4.36

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10:07:19

Poultry refrigeration volume in the United States in April -USDA monthly

Previous : 10.25 Forecast : -

Published Value 10.79

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08:35:39

The annual growth rate of live cattle on the market in the United States in April -USDA monthly

Previous : -5.50% Forecast : -

Published Value -10.03%

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08:35:14

The annual growth rate of the number of cattle awaiting feed in the United States in April -USDA monthly

Previous : -7.27% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.52%

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08:33:53

The annual growth rate of the number of cattle already raised in U.S. farms in May -USDA monthly

Previous : 0.53% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.83%

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08:04:52

NYMEX Palladium inventory changes in the US on May 21st - Daily

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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08:04:50

NYMEX palladium inventory in the US on May 21st - Updated Daily

Previous : 2389.25 Forecast : -

Published Value 2389.25

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08:04:46

NYMEX platinum inventory changes in the United States on May 21st - Daily

Previous : -48.09 Forecast : -

Published Value -5.14

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08:04:41

NYMEX platinum inventory in the US on May 21st - Updated Daily

Previous : 4368.39 Forecast : -

Published Value 4363.25

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08:04:37

COMEX silver inventory changes in the US on May 21 - Daily

Previous : -12077.23 Forecast : -

Published Value -7945.51

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08:04:33

COMEX silver inventory in the United States on May 21 - Updated Daily

Previous : 3146499.51 Forecast : -

Published Value 3138554

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08:04:29

COMEX gold inventory changes in the US on May 21st - Daily

Previous : -209.69 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.51

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08:04:26

COMEX gold inventories in the US as of May 21 - Updated Daily

Previous : 286605.45 Forecast : -

Published Value 286708.96

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08:01:39

iShares Silver position changes in the US on May 22 - Daily

Previous : -9.85 Forecast : -

Published Value 35.18

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08:01:33

iShares Silver Holdings in the US on May 22 - Updated Daily

Previous : 15179.19 Forecast : -

Published Value 15214.37

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08:01:13

iShares Gold position changes in the US on May 22nd - Daily

Previous : -0.59 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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08:01:05

iShares Gold Holdings in the US on May 22nd - Updated Daily

Previous : 478.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 478.70

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08:00:55

SPDR Gold position changes in the US on May 22nd - Daily

Previous : 0.86 Forecast : -

Published Value -2.86

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08:00:46

SPDR Gold positions in the US on May 22 - Updated Daily

Previous : 1037.71 Forecast : -

Published Value 1034.85

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4559.26

63.67

(1.42%)

XAG

75.741

0.124

(0.16%)

CONC

87.63

-1.27

(-1.43%)

OILC

91.39

-1.00

(-1.08%)

USD

98.873

-0.136

(-0.14%)

EURUSD

1.1668

0.0018

(0.16%)

GBPUSD

1.3466

0.0022

(0.16%)

USDCNH

6.7647

-0.0043

(-0.06%)