2026-04-05 Sunday
2026-04-10
08:33:00
[US Treasuries Sold Off to 12-Year Low as Oil Price Shocks Force Global Central Banks to "Rob Peter to Pay Paul"] ⑴ Following the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War, countries have been selling off US Treasury bonds to support their economies and currencies. The amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign central banks in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has fallen to its lowest level since 2012. ⑵ Federal Reserve data shows that since February 25, the amount of US Treasury bonds held by global central banks, governments, and international institutions in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has decreased by $82 billion, down to $2.7 trillion. ⑶ Since the outbreak of the war more than a month ago, these holdings have continued to decline, highlighting how the surge in energy prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted the fiscal situation of oil-import-dependent countries and driven a broad-based rise in the US dollar. ⑷ This reduction in holdings comes at a time when some central banks are intervening in the foreign exchange market to support their currencies. Such measures typically involve selling US dollars. Megan Swaber, US interest rate strategist at Bank of America, stated, "Foreign official sectors are selling US Treasury bonds."
08:32:37
[Weekend Market Recap: Dollar Reigns as Safe-Haven Demand, Europe Suffers Biggest Sell-Off in a Decade, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Resurface] ⑴ Last week, major asset markets exhibited distinct characteristics of risk aversion and divergence. The following is a summary of the weekly trends after the market closed. Trading is currently suspended for the weekend. ⑵ The US dollar bucked the trend and strengthened. Despite the better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls of 178,000 in March, risk aversion remained the dominant factor in the market. The dollar index closed at 100.20, with investors selling risk assets and buying the dollar. The yen, euro, and pound all weakened. ⑶ European assets experienced a sharp sell-off. Goldman Sachs data showed that net selling in March was the third highest in the past decade. Hedge funds shorted global equities for the fourth consecutive month, with a short-to-long ratio of 7.6 to 1. ⑷ Global central banks reduced their holdings of US Treasury bonds to support their currencies. The amount of US Treasury bonds held in custody by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has decreased by $82 billion to $2.7 trillion. (5) In terms of macroeconomic policy, soaring energy prices are changing the path of central banks. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year have largely disappeared, and several ECB Governing Council members have indicated that a rate hike is highly likely. The Bank of England is also predicted to raise rates in June. (6) Asian currencies are under significant pressure. The South Korean won hit a new low since 2009, and the Indonesian rupiah fell to a historic low. Oil-import-dependent economies are facing a double squeeze from their currencies and inflation.
08:30:32
[Easing of Strait Traffic, Oil Price Impact on Consumers: The Critical Point of Market Debate Between "Loosening" and "Tightening"] ⑴ The fear of energy supply disruptions remains the main theme of current market trading, and physical shortages have begun to emerge. However, subtle changes are occurring in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ A passage mechanism led by Iran is gradually taking shape. Ships from France, Japan, Turkey, and other countries have been allowed to pass through the strait, indicating that the blockade is not monolithic and local easing is underway. ⑶ However, supply-side pressure continues to accumulate. Data shows that approximately 108 oil tankers have left the strait since March 1st. JPMorgan Chase estimates a daily effective supply loss of approximately 14 million barrels globally, and OECD inventories are expected to reach their lowest operating levels. ⑷ Rising oil prices have already been transmitted to the consumer side. The average price of gasoline in the United States has risen to $4.10 per gallon, an increase of 37% since the outbreak of the conflict, and inflationary pressures are manifesting at the real level. (5) Trading psychology is caught in a dilemma: on the one hand, the easing of restrictions has alleviated the most extreme expectations of supply disruptions; on the other hand, the continuously decreasing number of tankers and the near-low inventory levels mean that the market is not far from a real supply crisis.
08:29:01
[Hormuz Strait Traffic Reaches Record High, Middle East Conflict Escalates, Market Game Torn Between "Data and Risk"] ⑴ Geopolitical risks escalated significantly overnight, with the US and Israel launching attacks on multiple Iranian regions, including the area surrounding Iran's nuclear power plant and petrochemical zones. The Revolutionary Guard retaliated with missile strikes against Israeli territory and US targets. ⑵ Trump issued a "48-hour" ultimatum demanding Iran meet US conditions. Israel is preparing to strike Iranian energy facilities, awaiting US approval. Further escalation of the conflict is possible in the coming week. ⑶ Meanwhile, shipping data shows that seven-day traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has just reached a post-war high, with French and Japanese vessels making their first appearances, exhibiting a divergence between "risk warnings and continued ship traffic." ⑷ This sense of unease is profoundly impacting trading psychology: on the one hand, the market prices prices based on actual traffic data, with supply remaining uninterrupted; on the other hand, escalating geopolitical signals are continuously fueling risk aversion. ⑸ The key focus going forward is whether traffic in the Strait can maintain its current level if Israel actually attacks Iranian energy facilities. This will determine the short-term direction of oil prices and risk assets.
08:25:50
[Straits Traffic Reaches Post-War High, French Ships Make First Appearance, Market Tensions Ease] ⑴ Over the past week, the seven-day rolling average number of vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest level since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in late February, indicating that traffic through this crucial waterway is recovering. ⑵ On Friday, a French container ship and a Japanese-affiliated liquefied petroleum gas carrier transited the strait, both for the first time since the war, suggesting that vessels without clear ties to Iran are gradually returning. ⑶ Data shows that from Friday morning to Saturday evening, a total of 13 ships passed through the strait, with 10 leaving the Persian Gulf and 3 entering from international waters, showing a two-way recovery in traffic. ⑷ As countries negotiate with Iran to ensure passage, more and more ships are crossing the strait, easing the market's previous extreme concerns about supply disruptions, and trading sentiment is gradually returning from panic to rational assessment. ⑸ Continued monitoring of the continuity of traffic data is necessary. If more Western vessels join the transit, it will further solidify market confidence in the safety of navigation through the strait.
08:09:10
[Hainan Receives Nearly 500,000 Inbound Tourists in Q1] According to the Hainan Provincial Department of Tourism, Culture, Radio, Television and Sports, Hainan received over 489,800 inbound tourists in the first quarter of 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of over 53.1%. Notably, while traditional inbound tourist markets such as Southeast Asia and Russia continued to grow, European tourist numbers saw a significant surge. For example, the number of tourists from the UK increased by over 81%, Italy by 101.3%, Switzerland by over 98.7%, and Spain by over 84.1%. (Hainan Daily)
