Real-Time Financial News | 24/7 Market Updates

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2025-09-12 Friday

2025-09-19

20:23:08

Nymex US crude oil futures rose 2.00% to $63.62 per barrel

20:23:07

US President Trump: We're going to Memphis to address policing, just like we did in Washington, D.C.

20:22:49

US President Trump: We will bring the National Guard to Memphis

20:22:34

[Citi: Japan-US investment funds may prompt Japan to use its US Treasury holdings to create a mini Mar-a-Lago agreement] Citigroup analysts pointed out that the $550 billion investment fund as part of the tariff agreement between Japan and the United States may make large-scale use of Japan's $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves. US Treasury bonds are a core component of Japan's foreign exchange reserves. Citi analysts believe that Japan's use of these US Treasury bonds may trigger a chain reaction, leading to an increase in long-term US Treasury yields. This in turn may prompt the United States to pressure Japan to extend the maturity of its US Treasury holdings. "We do not expect a major shift in multilateral exchange rate policies that would lead to an outcome similar to the 'Mar-a-Lago Agreement', but there is a possibility of reaching some kind of bilateral 'mini Mar-a-Lago Agreement'," Citi analysts Osamu Takashima and others pointed out in the report. "From the perspective of exchange rate policy, we believe that it will continue to tilt towards a weaker US dollar and a stronger yen."

20:22:25

Industry sources: Ukrainian drones attacked two crude oil tankers in the Russian port of Primorsk. Oil loading at the Russian port of Primorsk was suspended early Friday. It is unclear whether crude oil loading will continue.

20:22:02

What to watch next week: The central bank’s three doors this week: dovish, cautious, and hawkish. Who will set the prices? Details>

20:17:21

Elvira Elbiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia: The Central Bank has taken into account the recent changes in the ruble exchange rate when making interest rate decisions

20:15:55

OPEC and the International Energy Agency have different outlooks, and traders have different views on crude oil supply and demand risks. Details>

20:13:35

Citigroup: The Japan-U.S. Investment Fund may prompt Japan to use its U.S. Treasury holdings, leading to a mini-Mar-a-Lago agreement

20:12:39

Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia: The weakness of the ruble shows that monetary conditions are easing. If the budget deficit exceeds the plan, we will have to limit interest rate cuts and consider cutting interest rates by 100 basis points today or keeping interest rates unchanged.

20:11:06

Brent crude futures extended their gains after a drone attack on Russia's Primorsk port halted oil shipments.

20:09:47

Barclays: The pound could recover as fiscal and economic growth concerns are overblown. Analysts at Barclays Bank stated in a report that market pessimism about the UK's fiscal situation and economic outlook may be overblown, and that the pound is expected to rebound. They noted that while the UK government's fiscal room for maneuver has disappeared, debt levels do not appear unsustainable. Furthermore, the UK economy has proven more resilient than previously feared in recent years. The market is generally shorting the pound, anticipating a decline. If the government delivers a credible autumn budget in November that adheres to fiscal rules, ideally by favoring spending cuts and expanding fiscal space, this will create the "conditions" for a pound rebound. Barclays predicts that if fiscal uncertainty is resolved, the euro/pound exchange rate will fall from the current 0.8654 to between 0.84 and 0.85.

20:09:08

Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Russian Central Bank: Lending situation is expected to improve

20:08:38

All iPhone 17 series sold out on first sale

20:07:03

Elvira Elbiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia: GDP growth in 2025 is close to the lower limit of the forecast range

20:06:54

Central Bank of Lebanon: Lebanon's foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold) will increase to US$11.3 billion by mid-2025. The value of Lebanon's gold reserves has risen to US$30.28 billion by mid-2025 due to rising gold prices.

20:06:28

Elvira Elbiullina, Governor of the Central Bank of Russia: It will take time to consolidate the trend of falling inflation. We expect the situation to stabilize with the changes in fuel prices.

20:06:17

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.67% to 4.057.

20:06:04

US President Trump: The suspect in Kirk's assassination has been detained and someone has reported the suspect to the police

20:04:45

EU sources: The European Commission plans to bring forward the review of the 2035 automotive CO2 target to the end of 2025 instead of the previous 2026. The European Commission intends to create a new regulatory category for small electric vehicles manufactured in Europe.

20:01:06

[Bank of Montreal: Stocks typically rise after the Fed cuts interest rates] Bank of Montreal Capital points out that US stocks typically rise after the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts. Since 1982, the S&P 500 has achieved positive returns in eight of the 10 cycles of rate cuts, with an average return of 10.4% one year after the rate cut.

20:00:43

Bank of Canada expected to cut overnight rate to 2.25% or below by end-2025: poll

20:00:32

Survey: 25 of 32 economists said the Bank of Canada will cut its overnight rate to 2.50% on September 17; 7 said it will remain unchanged

20:00:03

Brazil's annual growth rate of the service sector in July - private non-financial sector

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : 2.60%

Published Value 2.80%

20:00:02

Brazil's July service sector growth rate - private non-financial sector

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

19:59:16

Brent crude oil futures rose 2.03% to $67.58 per barrel

19:55:25

Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC): As of July, Nigeria has reduced its crude oil losses to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest level since 2009.

19:55:05

[Market Analysis: Indonesian mine disaster and the prospect of interest rate cuts drive copper prices up] Copper prices are expected to rise strongly this week as a large copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, raising concerns about supply. LME rose 2.5% this week. Expectations of monetary policy have boosted confidence across the industrial metals industry and improved the demand outlook. ANZ analysts said: "The prolonged shutdown of the world's second-largest copper mine is likely to tighten the market." At the same time, expectations of looser monetary policy in the United States have boosted confidence across the industrial metals industry and improved the demand outlook.

19:54:46

[The world's first super-heavy oil solar thermal development project has been put into operation in Karamay, Xinjiang] Today, China National Petroleum Corporation learned that the world's first super-heavy oil extraction tower solar thermal replacement demonstration project has been put into operation in Xinjiang. It can replace nearly 3.92 million cubic meters of natural gas annually, marking a major technological breakthrough in my country's green and low-carbon transformation of oil and gas development.

19:52:25

Commodities trader Gunvor Group said it will expand its precious metals business to include physical metals trading.

19:49:15

[Market Analysis: The pound may fall further due to economic fragility] XTB analyst Brooks said in a report that the pound may extend its decline as the latest UK GDP data showed that the UK economy was in a fragile state before the announcement of the Autumn Budget in November. The data showed that the UK economy failed to grow in July. Brooks said that the "ghost of stagflation", that is, low growth combined with high inflation, continues to hang over the UK economy. She said that the Bank of England seemed cautious about cutting interest rates recently, but the data may boost market expectations of rate cuts and further weaken the pound.

19:48:43

[Moody's: Bank of Japan will continue to stand pat due to uncertainty] Moody's analyst Stefan Angric said the Bank of Japan will choose to wait and see at its meeting next week. The economist said that although better-than-expected GDP growth, stubborn inflation and new yen depreciation make rate hikes possible, policymakers are likely to remain cautious amid political uncertainty at home and abroad. The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has disrupted the policy outlook, and the overseas situation is not much better, with doubts about the US-Japan trade agreement remaining. At the same time, Japan's exports and industrial output are weakening, and consumer spending is also shrinking. "Demand-driven inflation is not enough to guarantee a rate hike this month," Angric wrote. This is not to say that the Bank of Japan cannot raise interest rates, but given the unstable economic outlook, policymakers may want to be more clear.

19:47:40

[Bond Yields Soar! ECB Rate Cut Expectations Ease, Fed Policy Path Diverges] ⑴ European government bond yields rose significantly this week, primarily driven by investors' downward revisions to their expectations for ECB rate cuts. Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.69%, up approximately 4 basis points this week. The interest rate-sensitive 2-year bond yield hit an April high of 2.0250%. Most of the gains occurred on Thursday, when the ECB, as expected, held interest rates steady and offered no indication of future policy direction. Institutional analysts point to the ECB's high confidence in the current policy rate level, suggesting support for the front end of the yield curve in the short term. ⑵ Market expectations for an ECB rate cut have cooled significantly, with money markets now pricing in a probability of less than 40% for a 25 basis point rate cut until June 2026, a significant drop from the nearly 50% level following Thursday's policy meeting. Meanwhile, the market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. This divergence in the policy paths of major central banks has caused the yield spread between 10-year German and US Treasury bonds to narrow to its lowest level since July 2023. (3) The difference in market pricing for Fed rate cuts and the ECB's policy is driving yield curve movements. The Fed's policy outlook, particularly the timing and pace of further rate cuts, will be a key focus for the market. Analysts note that while Powell is likely to reiterate that "every meeting is a living meeting," no specific October decisions have been made at the September meeting. (4) France's sovereign debt rating will face a review by rating agencies after the market close on Friday (Beijing time). While a downgrade may cause market concern, analysts believe that the review is unlikely to trigger a sharp market reaction, as some expectations have already been priced in. Currently, the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds remains at 77 basis points, down from the six-month high of 83.38 basis points reached this week.

19:45:38

[Commerzbank: The ECB should not be too worried even if the euro rises above 1.20] Thu Lan Nguyen, an analyst at Commerzbank, said that the euro may rise above 1.20 against the US dollar EUR/USD, but this may not necessarily cause problems for the ECB. ECB Vice President Guindos has said that such a level may be tricky. However, as the ECB said at its meeting on Thursday, the growth outlook has improved. In this regard, tolerance for further strengthening of the euro may be higher. Commerzbank raised its year-end forecast for Europe and the United States from 1.20 to 1.22, citing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further and that the Fed's independence will be eroded. She said that the ECB will find it difficult to cope with the strengthening of the euro caused by the weakening of the dollar.

19:40:14

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,400.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $1,400.05/ounce, up 1.16% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,409.0/ounce, up 0.66% on the day.

19:38:53

The US Treasury bond liquidity pump is fully operational! Where will this extreme stress test of the Federal Reserve push the US dollar? Details>

19:38:24

[Monex: Fed rate cut bets will keep the dollar weak] Monex Europe analysts said in a report that even if the dollar stabilizes before the weekend and economic data on Friday is light, the dollar may continue to weaken. They said the Fed looks set to cut interest rates again on September 17 and begin a stable policy easing cycle. They said this should keep the dollar on the defensive for the next few months. Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims increased more than expected last week, while August inflation data was weaker than expected, with only limited tariff transmission effects and no signs that price pressures are expanding. The market has increased its bets on rate cuts.

19:35:11

JPMorgan Chase raised its price target on United Airlines to $149 from $122 per share.

19:33:41

[Poland closes all border crossings to Belarus] The Polish government announced on the 12th that due to the large-scale joint military exercise "West-2025" between Russia and Belarus that began on the same day, Poland will close all border crossings to Belarus from now on. The Polish Ministry of the Interior said in a statement that since 0:00 on the 12th, Poland has closed all road and railway crossings to Belarus for national security reasons. Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kelwinski said that the ports will only be reopened when the government is convinced that "the safety of Polish citizens is fully guaranteed."

19:30:08

India's foreign exchange reserves for the week ending September 1

Previous : 6951.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 6982.70

19:26:46

[National Average Pig Price Stops Declining and Stabilizes, Supply and Demand Remains Relaxed] ⑴ On September 12th, the national average pig price was 13.72 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day, ending a previous downward trend. ⑵ Chongqing's meat supply index fell 0.32% from the previous day. Beijing's carcass pork wholesale transaction volume reached 508,000 kilograms, a 3.97% decrease from the previous month. ⑶ Reluctance to sell is growing among breeders, but market supply pressures persist. ⑷ Stocking for the two major holidays has begun on the demand side, but the impact on price increases is limited, resulting in an overall "strong supply, weak demand" situation.

19:25:11

[China Merchants Port's container throughput increased by 5.6% year-on-year in August] ⑴ According to an announcement from China Merchants Port, container throughput reached 18.312 million TEUs in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. ⑵ Cumulative container throughput for the year reached 136.886 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. ⑶ Container throughput at mainland terminals reached 14.515 million TEUs in August, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Overseas terminals saw throughput of 3.352 million TEUs in August, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. ⑷ Bulk cargo throughput reached 110 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Cumulative bulk cargo throughput for the year reached 843 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%.

19:24:48

Montenegro's inflation rate rose to a 15-month high in August. (1) Montenegro's annual inflation rate edged up to 4.6% in August 2025, up from 4.5% in July and reaching its highest level since May 2025. (2) Rising costs of food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.5% vs. 5.2% in July), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.1% vs. 5.8%), housing and utilities (7.2% vs. 6.9%), and healthcare (13.1% vs. 12.8%) were the main drivers. (3) Transport prices rebounded (0.5% vs. -0.3%), while the decline in clothing and footwear narrowed (-3.3% vs. -3.4%). (4) Price growth slowed for furniture, appliances, and daily household maintenance (3.7% vs. 4.3%) and miscellaneous goods and services (4.2% vs. 5.3%), while communications costs declined (-0.1% vs. 1.5%). 5. Prices for entertainment and culture (8.2%) and education (0.9%) remained unchanged. 6. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.5% in August, slowing from the previous month's 0.6%.

19:23:49

Latvia's current account deficit narrowed to €152 million in July. (1) Latvia's current account deficit narrowed to €152 million in July 2025, compared to €251 million in the same period last year. (2) Primary revenue turned from a €108 million deficit to a €49 million surplus. (3) The secondary revenue surplus widened from €60 million to €76 million. (4) The goods deficit increased from €426 million to €474 million. (5) The services surplus narrowed from €223 million to €196 million.

19:23:36

Belgium's industrial output fell slightly by 0.1% year-on-year in July. (1) Belgium's industrial output fell by 0.1% year-on-year in July 2025, shifting to contraction from a downwardly revised 2.7% increase previously reported. (2) The supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning declined further (-8.5% vs. -5.8% previously reported), leading to a slowdown in manufacturing output growth (+0.8% vs. +3.6%). (3) Mining and quarrying production rebounded (+0.1% vs. -1.3%). (4) Month-on-month, seasonally adjusted growth was 1.1%, slowing from the 5.2% increase in June.

19:23:13

Romania's current account deficit narrowed in July. (1) Romania's current account deficit narrowed to €2.508 billion in July 2025, compared to €3.009 billion in the same period last year. (2) The goods account deficit fell to €1.838 billion from €1.946 billion in July of the previous year. (3) The primary revenue deficit fell to €809 million from €1.017 billion; the secondary revenue account turned from a €47 million deficit to a €139 million surplus. (4) The services account surplus fell to €915 million from €965 million in the same period last year.

19:22:27

Serbia's August inflation slowed unexpectedly to 4.7% (Note: The following appears to be a separate, unrelated fragment: ⑴ Serbia's annual inflation rate fell to 4.7% in August 2025, down from a 15-month high of 4.9% in July and slightly below the market expectation of 4.8%. ⑵ Price growth slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.8% vs. 8.1% in July), housing and utilities (3.0% vs. 3.6%), alcohol and tobacco (4.7% vs. 6.5%), clothing and footwear (3.9% vs. 4.5%), and entertainment and culture (3.7% vs. 4.1%). ⑶ Transport costs rose 0.1% month-over-month (down 1.1% in the previous month), while prices for miscellaneous goods and services rose (5.2% vs. 4.5%). ⑷ Month-over-month, consumer prices rose 0.2%, below the market expectation of 0.45% and the previous increase of 0.6%.

19:21:43

India's August Inflation Rate Rises to 2.07%, Food Price Decline Narrows. (1) India's consumer inflation rate rose to 2.07% year-on-year in August 2025, up from an upwardly revised 1.61% in July, broadly in line with market expectations. (2) This marked the first monthly increase in inflation in ten months, but remained close to the 2% lower tolerance threshold under the Reserve Bank of India's inflation targeting framework. (3) Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 0.69%, narrowing the 1.76% drop in July. (4) Inflation rose for betel nut, tobacco, and other items (2.49% vs. 2.45%) and miscellaneous items (5.05% vs. 5.01%), while the growth rate of clothing and footwear costs slowed (2.33% vs. 2.50%), housing (3.09% vs. 3.17%), and fuel and lighting (2.43% vs. 2.67%).

19:20:01

[Russian Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate by 100 Basis Points to 17%, Less Than Expected] ⑴ The Russian Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 17% in its September 2025 resolution, marking the third consecutive rate cut, but the reduction was smaller than the market's expectation of 200 basis points. ⑵ Since the benchmark interest rate remained at a record high of 21% for six months (until June of this year), the cumulative reduction has reached 400 basis points. ⑶ The Central Bank stated that monetary conditions have eased somewhat this year, but remain sufficiently tight to address persistently high inflation (which has been above the 4% target for over two years). ⑷ The latest data showed that the annualized inflation rate fell to 8.1%, the lowest level in a year, but policymakers emphasized that a slight acceleration in domestic consumption and the recent rise in inflation expectations and deteriorating terms of trade have made inflation risks the dominant factor. ⑸ Continued labor market tensions due to military mobilization and the outflow of working-age men have further exacerbated inflationary pressures.

19:18:24

[Scarlet Moment: Boeing 737 Forced Landing in Japan, Safe Evacuation Sounds Alarm] ⑴ On Friday, a Boeing 737 experienced a terrifying emergency landing at Kansai International Airport in Japan due to an unexplained malfunction. At approximately 7:30 PM local time, the United Airlines aircraft quickly deployed its emergency escape stairs upon landing, safely evacuating passengers. ⑵ The Boeing 737, originally en route from Tokyo to Cebu, experienced a suspected malfunction mid-flight and subsequently declared an emergency. This incident has reignited concerns about aviation safety. Although no casualties have been reported, the images of the forced landing and emergency evacuation have undoubtedly created a sense of nervousness in the market. ⑶ Frequent aviation safety incidents often affect investor confidence in related airline stocks and manufacturers. While the specific cause of this incident remains under investigation, its impact on public sentiment and underlying market sentiment cannot be ignored. Passenger safety is paramount, and the swift evacuation measures are commendable. ⑷ While the market is monitoring this incident, it is also assessing its potential ripple effects on the global aviation industry. Although it may have an emotional impact on specific airlines or aircraft models in the short term, in the long run, the industry still needs to examine every aspect of safety production with a more rigorous attitude to ensure flight safety.

19:15:06

[India's Sensex Index closed higher for five consecutive days, hitting a nearly three-week high] ⑴ India's BSE Sensex index closed up 0.4% at 81,905 points on Friday, reaching its highest level since August 25, marking five consecutive trading days of gains. ⑵ Technology, financial, and auto sectors led the gains, with market sentiment boosted by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and hopes for US-India trade negotiations. ⑶ In terms of individual stocks, BEL, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, and Maruti Suzuki led the gains, with the highest increase being 3.67%.

19:14:03

According to CCTV: Li Qiang presided over the State Council executive meeting and deployed several measures to further promote the development of private investment

19:13:55

According to CCTV: Li Qiang chaired the State Council executive meeting to study and improve the overseas comprehensive service system

19:13:47

According to CCTV: Li Qiang chaired the State Council executive meeting and reviewed and approved the "Regulations on the Administration of Clinical Research and Clinical Transformation Application of New Biomedical Technologies (Draft)"

19:13:41

Xi Jinping signed presidential decrees on September 12th. Xi Jinping signed presidential decrees No. 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, and 57. Presidential decree No. 51 states that the Atomic Energy Law of the People's Republic of China, adopted at the 17th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China on September 12, 2025, is hereby promulgated and will come into effect on January 15, 2026. (CCTV News)

19:13:01

[Russian Ruble Strengthens Significantly Due to Moderate Rate Cut] ⑴ The Russian ruble rebounded from a five-month low of 85 against the US dollar on Friday to above 82, largely due to the Russian Central Bank's more-hawkish stance than expected. ⑵ The central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 17%, less than the market's expected 200 basis points, despite having previously lowered its economic growth forecast. ⑶ Monetary policymakers emphasized the need for caution in the interest rate cut cycle, given the high inflation expectations and tight labor market. ⑷ The ruble has been supported this year by capital controls (requiring companies to sell 40% of their export earnings, with the actual implementation rate reaching 70%), but the exchange rate remains weaker than its peak of 76 this year.

19:09:19

[US Energy Secretary: EU Could Achieve Zero Russian Natural Gas Within 6-12 Months] ⑴ The EU could achieve zero Russian natural gas within 6-12 months, with the US Energy Secretary clearly conveying this strategic intention. ⑵ The EU has begun internal negotiations on a draft law aimed at completely halting oil and gas imports from Russia by January 2028, with plans to restrict short-term contracts starting next year. ⑶ US liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to take this opportunity to fill the gap in the European market, and these developments suggest a potential reshaping of the global energy landscape. ⑷ Market sentiment should focus on the implementation of policies in Europe's energy transition process, as well as changes in US LNG supply capacity and prices, as these factors will collectively influence future energy market trends.

19:08:05

Sri Lanka's Monetary Policy: A Dual Consideration of Prudent Interest Rate Raises and Reserves] ⑴ The Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka stated that while the central bank has room to cut interest rates further, it will adopt a cautious approach to maintain buffers against potential external shocks. This follows the central bank's unexpected 25 basis point cut in the overnight policy rate to 7.75% in May, a move that has been effectively transmitted to the market. ⑵ After a sharp contraction in 2022 and 2023, Sri Lanka's economy is currently stabilizing. Inflation has eased, foreign exchange reserves have improved, and the currency has strengthened, allowing the central bank to shift from crisis management to a more balanced monetary policy stance. ⑶ The Governor emphasized that while monetary policy can provide support in the short term, it is not a driver of sustainable growth. He pointed out that the central bank cannot support growth through credit expansion or excessively accommodative monetary policy, which is only short-term and not sustainable. ⑷ Looking ahead to the next decade, Sri Lanka's average annual external debt will be approximately US$3.5 billion to US$4 billion. If foreign exchange reserves can be maintained at or above US$8 billion, it will be more stable and resilient than during the crisis. Current reserves are US$6.2 billion. (5) The central bank governor stated that current data shows that the economy is recovering steadily and the outlook remains optimistic. Sustainable growth requires stability, and short-term higher growth is not sustainable.

19:07:18

[Germany’s economic recovery is beginning to emerge, but challenges remain] ⑴ The German economy is expected to maintain a moderate recovery in the third quarter, but the overall performance is still insufficient. Recent business sector indicators, such as new orders, have shown signs of economic recovery. ⑵ However, the weakness in the consumer confidence index and the shrinking gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter have cast a shadow on the sustainability of the economic recovery, making the previously expected strong rebound fall through. ⑶ The German government and business community hope that a 500 billion euro infrastructure investment plan will effectively stimulate economic growth. The size of the plan is close to the size of the economy in 2019 and is expected to have a more significant impact on the economy by the end of the year. ⑷ Despite the challenges, the rebound in corporate orders has brought hope to the market, which shows that the possibility of the economy bottoming out is increasing. Pay attention to changes in subsequent data.

19:06:14

Palm oil market: Holiday profit-taking weighed on the market, with mixed fundamental factors. Details>

18:57:57

The FTSE China A50 Index futures just broke through the 15100.00 mark and was last trading at 15101.00, up 0.03% on the day.

18:55:27

The main Nymex crude oil futures contract just broke through the $63.00/barrel mark and is currently trading at $63.01/barrel, up 1.03% on the day.

18:54:34

EU Trade Commissioner: India-EU relations in the automotive sector are also about additional investment to create jobs

18:54:29

EU Trade Commissioner: We will do our utmost to complete the trade agreement before the end of the year

18:54:19

EU Trade Commissioner: Strive to reach an economically win-win agreement to bring value to businesses and customers

18:52:53

Ready to evacuate? A weakening economy and a fading AI deal boom could trigger a US stock market correction. Details>

18:52:03

[US Dollar Rebounds Fragilely, Bull-Bear Game Intensifies] ⑴ The US dollar index staged a fragile rebound in early European trading on Friday, but overall performance remained volatile, with market forces stalemate. Among major currency pairs, EUR/USD fell 0.01% to around 1.2000; USD/JPY rose 0.37%, reflecting the yen's relative weakness; GBP/USD fell 0.14%, pressured by weak UK economic growth data; and AUD/USD fell 0.22%. Despite having previously reached a 10-month high, it faces a short-term correction. ⑵ Despite a technical rebound, the US dollar index's fragility suggests that market confidence has not fully recovered. Traders are closely monitoring US economic data for guidance on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction. Any signals that could signal a slowdown or delay in interest rate cuts could further pressure the US dollar. ⑶ Regarding stock indices, market sentiment remained cautious. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in electronic trading, and the German DAX fell 0.27%, indicating that European stock markets are facing some correction pressure. However, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.89%, and the UK's FTSE also gained 0.29%, indicating divergent global stock market performance, with some markets remaining resilient. (4) From a psychological perspective, the market currently stands at a critical crossroads. While digesting the latest economic data and geopolitical factors, investors are also assessing the relative value of different asset classes. The short-term direction of the US dollar will largely depend on upcoming US inflation data and market expectations of the Federal Reserve's future policy path. (5) It is worth noting that recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff rhetoric, while not directly reflected in current data, have become a source of uncertainty affecting global trade and investment sentiment. Such concerns could lead to increased risk aversion, with indirect impacts on the US dollar and other major currencies.

18:50:14

Morgan Stanley: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, rather than the two rate cuts in September and December as previously predicted. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January, April and July 2026 respectively.

18:50:04

French Government Bonds Face Risks, Market Sentiment Fluctuates (⑴) The risk premium on French government bonds (OATs) is expected to remain elevated, primarily due to recent market concerns that the government of former Prime Minister François Bayrou may lose a confidence vote, which could trigger market volatility. (⑵) Despite pressure on French government bonds, institutional analysts believe that market concerns over France's fiscal policy and debt are unlikely to alter the ECB's established monetary policy path. (⑶) Notably, concerns about expansionary fiscal policy and growing debt burdens have become a pervasive issue in global markets in recent months and a key driver of market fluctuations. (⑷) Data shows that the yield spread between 10-year French and German government bonds is currently at 78 basis points. This widening gap reflects the market's pricing of French sovereign risk.

18:49:51

Copper Prices Surge to a Five-Month High, Multiple Positive Factors Converge! ⑴ Copper prices surged, reaching a more than five-month high, primarily driven by market optimism about US interest rate cuts and concerns about potential supply shortages. On Friday (Beijing Time), the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $10,097 per ton, its highest level since March 26th, and has risen approximately 15% so far this year. ⑵ The latest US unemployment benefit application data, which unexpectedly surged, further solidified market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. This optimism also drove gains across the base metals market, including copper. Analysts noted that the consensus market expectation was a 25 basis point rate cut, but the actual cut may exceed expectations, injecting strong bullish momentum into the market. ⑶ In terms of trading strategy, Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds actively bought copper prices when they fell below the key psychological level of $10,000, driving further price increases. Subsequently, strong demand from the Asian market also joined in pushing up prices. It is particularly noteworthy that the main copper contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange performed well, with an increase of 1.22%, demonstrating the strong purchasing power of the Asian market. ⑷ Concerns on the supply side also provided strong support for copper prices. Operations at Grasberg Copper Mine, one of the largest copper mines in Indonesia, were suspended due to mine rescue work. In addition, Peru's copper production in July fell 2% year-on-year to 228,007 tons. As the world's third largest copper producer, its production decline has undoubtedly exacerbated the market's supply tensions. ⑸ Against this backdrop, other base metals also generally rose. Nickel prices led the gains as Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining. The prices of metals such as aluminum, zinc, lead and tin also rose to varying degrees, showing an overall recovery in the metal market.

18:49:48

The main Brent crude oil futures contract just broke through the $67.00/barrel mark and was last quoted at $67.01/barrel, up 1.16% on the day.

18:47:45

[Russian Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate by 100 Basis Points to 17%, Inflation Concerns Remain!] ⑴ The Russian Central Bank announced on Friday that it would cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 17%, lower than analysts expected, primarily due to inflation remaining above target and persistently high inflation expectations. The agency noted, "Inflation expectations have not changed significantly in recent months and remain generally elevated, which could hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation." ⑵ The market had previously predicted a 200 basis point rate cut, but the ruble's 5% drop this week has raised concerns about the extent of the central bank's cut. The central bank stated that in the medium term, inflation risks remain greater than deflation risks, linked to a prolonged period of deviation from the balanced growth path, elevated inflation expectations, and deteriorating external terms of trade. ⑶ The latest data showed that monthly inflation in Russia was negative 0.4% in August, but the annual rate slowed to 8.14%, down from 8.79% in July. However, the economic growth outlook is bleak, projected to fall from 4.3% in 2024 to 1.2% this year, with some economists and business leaders warning of stagnation or even recession. ⑷ The central bank stressed that the normalization of fiscal policy has not yet been achieved. Given the accumulated budget deficit since the beginning of the year and the possible impact of the new budget, the central bank will be forced to adjust its monetary policy.

18:47:05

The UAE stressed that the continuation of "this hostile rhetoric exacerbates an unacceptable situation that cannot be ignored"

18:46:14

EU Trade Commissioner Maros: The EU and India have been negotiating a free trade agreement for some time, but have not yet reached this momentum

18:46:06

EU Trade Commissioner Maros: I believe the trade negotiations between the EU and India will be "breakthrough"

18:42:16

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.01% to $66.91 per barrel

18:35:38

[A Giant's Shakeup: Denmark's Economy Plays a Variation on "Dutch Disease"] ⑴ The Danish economy is undergoing a structural adjustment driven by the surge in sales of pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, reminiscent of the Dutch "Dutch Disease" phenomenon of the 1960s. While Novo Nordisk's $243 billion in weight-loss drug sales may slow national growth, Denmark's diversified economic structure is expected to cushion the blow. ⑵ Market analysts point out that Novo Nordisk announced plans to lay off 9,000 employees, representing 11.5% of its global workforce, in an effort to save $1.3 billion annually. Approximately 5,000 of these positions will be cut in its home country of Denmark. Notably, the company had already implemented a global hiring freeze for non-critical positions in August. ⑶ These adjustments have had a significant impact on Denmark's economic growth outlook. The Danish government has lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast from 3% to 1.4%. Authorities attribute this to external pressures, including Trump's tariff rhetoric, and a weakening outlook for Novo Nordisk, the country's largest pharmaceutical company. Despite the challenges, Novo Nordisk's predicament may also bring benefits, such as the reallocation of resources to seize new growth opportunities. The diversity of the Danish economy will be key to its response to this variation of the "Dutch disease".

18:34:34

Central Bank of Russia: Changes in fiscal policy parameters may require adjustments to the implemented monetary policy

18:34:30

Russian Central Bank: Monetary conditions have eased somewhat, but remain tight

18:34:26

Russia's Central Bank: Inflation risk remains greater than deflation risk in the medium term

18:34:23

Russian Central Bank: Labor market tensions have not eased significantly

18:34:19

Russia's Central Bank: Inflation expectations have not changed significantly in recent months

18:34:15

Russia's Central Bank: Tight monetary policy continues to lead to deflation

18:34:11

The Central Bank of Russia: The basic indicators of current price growth have not changed significantly, and the annualized growth rate remains above 4% overall.

18:34:08

The Central Bank of Russia will maintain the necessary tight monetary policy to ensure that the inflation rate returns to the target level in 2026.

18:34:03

The Bank of Russia will further determine the benchmark interest rate based on the sustainability of inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations.

18:33:07

The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across China as of September 12th

Previous : 230.39 Forecast : -

Published Value 236.04

18:32:58

The operating rates of soybean crushing at major oil mills across China as of September 12th

Previous : 64.76% Forecast : -

Published Value 66.35%

18:32:22

[CSRC Punishes *ST Dongtong for Serious Financial Fraud: Proposed Fine of 229 Million Yuan and Delisting] (1) On Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued advance notice of administrative penalties against Beijing Dongfangtong Technology Co., Ltd. (stock abbreviation: *ST Dongtong), a company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) board, for allegedly falsifying financial data in its periodic reports. (2) An investigation revealed that ST Dongtong had inflated its operating revenue and profits for four consecutive years, violating relevant securities market laws and regulations. Based on these violations, the CSRC proposes to fine ST Dongtong 229 million yuan, impose a total fine of 44 million yuan on seven individuals directly responsible, and impose a 10-year securities market ban on the company's actual controller. (3) Notably, *ST Dongtong's illegal activities are suspected of meeting the criteria for mandatory delisting due to major violations, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will initiate delisting procedures in accordance with relevant regulations. In addition, regarding the criminal clues that may be involved in the case, the CSRC clearly stated that it will adhere to the principle of "transferring as much as possible" and promptly transfer them to the public security organs for handling in strict accordance with the Criminal Law and the Provisions of the Supreme People's Procuratorate and the Ministry of Public Security on the Standards for Filing and Prosecuting Criminal Cases under the Jurisdiction of Public Security Organs (II). This investigation and punishment also reflects the regulatory authorities' strict control over the financial authenticity of GEM listed companies, further strengthening the compliance bottom line of information disclosure in the capital market.

18:30:38

India's year-on-year CPI rate in August

Previous : 1.55% Forecast : 2.10%

Published Value 2.07%

18:30:02

The interest rate decision of the Russian Central Bank in September

Previous : 18% Forecast : 16%

Published Value 17%

18:23:15

[Yen Under Pressure, Dollar Plays a Cloud Game] ⑴ The USD/JPY pair climbed from 147.13 to 147.98 on Friday, but remained capped by the "cloud" area between 146.66 and 148.16. A close above the cloud top would constitute a strong bullish signal. ⑵ Notably, historical data shows that the yen tends to weaken against the dollar and euro in September, potentially signaling continued pressure on the yen in the short term. ⑶ Despite this, there has been no significant shift in the commitments made by the US and Japan on exchange rate policy, with both sides retaining room for market intervention, leaving market participants with uncertainty. ⑷ A former Japanese foreign exchange diplomat has suggested that the Bank of Japan should be wary of the inflationary risks posed by a weak yen, raising market concerns about future monetary policy trends. ⑸ BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding previously believed that the Federal Reserve's renewed interest rate cut cycle would dominate the next phase of the Treasury yield curve steepening trade, potentially helping stabilize long-term yields. However, the market does not yet fully price in this expectation.

18:20:23

Spot gold just broke through the $3,650.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,650.09/ounce, up 0.45% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,688.70/ounce, up 0.41% on the day.

18:18:45

[Focus on Great Power Competition, Market Undercurrents] ⑴ US President Trump called the Russian drone flight into Poland "probably a mistake," but expressed frustration with the developments and hoped the situation would subside. Furthermore, Trump and his staff privately expressed strong dissatisfaction with Israel's attack on Qatar, fearing it could undermine ceasefire negotiations in Gaza. ⑵ The US Senate voted 53-45 to approve a rule change allowing for collective confirmation of nominees, a move expected to expedite the confirmation process for Trump administration executive branch nominees. ⑶ Trump expressed "great surprise" at the conviction of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup. Meanwhile, Qatar's Prime Minister will visit the US on Friday and meet with Trump and others.

18:17:48

Asia-Pacific Fuel Oil Crack Spreads Plummet! Beware of Oversupply. ⑴ The crack spread for very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) in the Asia-Pacific region has fallen to its lowest level since January 2023, reflecting market concerns about ample supply. This week, the crack premium for the October VLSFO contract in Singapore was $5.75 per barrel, a sharp drop of nearly 30% from the previous week. Despite lively discussions at the Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference, market sentiment remained subdued, with traders generally citing difficult market conditions. ⑵ The fundamental reason for the market weakness is weak fuel oil demand and persistently high supplies in Asia. A Malaysian refinery recently sold additional low sulfur straight run fuel oil (LSSR) through a tender due to equipment outages. Two cargoes are scheduled for shipment on September 15-16 and September 24-25, respectively. Meanwhile, the high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) market also came under pressure, with cracks falling for the fifth consecutive week. The Singapore 380cst HSFO crack was trading at a discount of slightly more than $5 per barrel. ⑶ Inventory data showed that fuel oil inventories in the ARA region fell 3.5% to 1.04 million tons in the week ending September 11. However, heavy oil inventories in Fujairah rebounded 27.9% to 7.1 million barrels in the week ending September 8. Singapore fuel oil inventories fell slightly by 3.2% to 26.53 million barrels in the week ending September 10. Overall, supply pressure remains significant.

18:16:00

[Palm oil faces "headwinds", and the focus of the bull-bear game emerges] ⑴ Palm oil prices closed lower yesterday, and market sentiment was dragged down by the weakening of soybean oil. Institutional trader David Ng said that concerns about rising domestic inventory levels are intensifying, which has put pressure on palm oil futures. ⑵ The trader pointed out that the support level of palm oil futures contracts is set at 4,400 ringgit per ton, while the resistance level is at 4,580 ringgit per ton. ⑶ The palm oil futures contract for delivery in November on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange settled at 4,445 ringgit per ton yesterday, down 9 ringgit.

18:15:36

[It is advisable to take profits on the US stock market now, and it is recommended to reduce holdings in three sectors] ⑴ Lisa Shalett, investment director of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said on Friday that it is a good time to take profits on the US stock market. The bank explicitly recommends reducing holdings in three sectors: small and medium-sized stocks, non-profit technology companies and popular Internet celebrity stocks. ⑵ She pointed out that although small-cap stocks have had strong momentum recently, they should follow the example of hedge funds in exiting - small-cap stocks' earnings and public market performance are inferior to private equity, and they are unable to invest in generative AI competition like large companies. The market environment will be even more unfavorable for them next year. In addition, although the Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut has pushed up stock prices, Shalett believes that the rate cut will be difficult to reach more than 100 basis points, which is not enough to support small-cap stocks.

18:14:45

Is Bond Market Sentiment Shifting? Expectations of Rate Cuts May Stabilize Yields. (1) BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding stated that the news that US President Trump is not considering nominating an independent outsider for the Federal Reserve Chair position may provide some comfort to US Treasury investors, potentially helping to stabilize long-term yields. (2) Dowding believes BlueBay has consistently expected the next phase of the US Treasury yield curve steepening trade to be led by falling short-term interest rates, rather than a sell-off in long-term bonds. (3) With the Federal Open Market Committee resuming its rate-cutting cycle, this is expected to occur. (4) The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with a 50 basis point cut less likely. (5) The 10-year US Treasury yield is currently at 4.042%, having risen 3.2 basis points.

18:13:59

[US Treasury Yield Curve Steepening: A Fierce Game Between the Specter of Inflation and Expectations of Rate Cuts] ⑴ The 2-year Treasury yield fluctuated between 3.539% and 3.562%, ultimately closing at 3.554%; the 10-year yield reached a range of 4.026% to 4.047%, closing at 4.037%. ⑵ The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 2s/10s spread narrowing from 49 basis points to 48.5 basis points, and the 5s/30s spread falling from 106.5 basis points to 104.6 basis points. ⑶ The 30-year Treasury yield rose from 4.651% to 4.674%, ultimately closing at 4.654%, indicating significant pressure on long-term interest rates. ⑷ Trading volume for December Treasury futures contracts was only 196,000 lots, well below average, indicating light trading activity. ⑸ Consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, accelerating from 2.7% in July and reaching the highest level since early 2025. ⑹ The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, forming a policy divergence with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates next week, and promoting the repricing of US dollar assets. ⑺ Mortgage rates fell to an 11-month low, but with house prices close to historical highs and the job market weak, the housing market recovery still faces resistance. ⑻ The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be 58.0, slightly lower than the previous value of 58.2; the one-year inflation forecast was 4.8% and the five-year forecast was 3.5%. ⑼ The zero growth of UK GDP in July was in line with expectations, but the market still expects the Bank of England to continue its interest rate cut cycle. ⑽ The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany showed an increase in support for the far-right party, raising concerns about political risks in Europe.

18:13:06

[Southbound funds have increased their holdings in Alibaba for 16 consecutive days, with a total of HK$41.5 billion] ⑴ Southbound funds made a net purchase of HK$7.331 billion of Hong Kong stocks on Friday. In terms of net purchases, Alibaba-W ranked first, with a net purchase of HK$4.38 billion; Tencent Holdings was second, with a net purchase of HK$929 million; Pop Mart, Hua Hong Semiconductor, etc. also received net purchases to varying degrees. ⑵ On the net selling side, Meituan-W was net sold for HK$1.682 billion, and Sansure Pharmaceuticals, UBTECH, Bilibili-W, etc. all had net sales. Statistics show that southbound funds have been net buying Alibaba-W for 16 consecutive days, totaling HK$41.52389 billion; at the same time, they have been net selling Meituan-W for 4 consecutive days, with a total of HK$2.70959 billion. Alibaba's recent optimization of e-commerce business efficiency may be an important reference for increasing funds.

49

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3652.88	8.61 (0.24%)
XAG	42.193	0.400 (0.96%)
CONC	63.04	-0.22 (-0.35%)
OILC	67.27	-0.19 (-0.28%)
USD	97.420	0.064 (0.07%)
EURUSD	1.1773	-0.0012 (-0.10%)
GBPUSD	1.3529	-0.0025 (-0.18%)
USDCNH	7.1106	0.0039 (0.06%)

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