2026-07-13 Monday
2026-07-19
15:00:54
[US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates, Boosting Oil Prices and Pressures Gold Prices, Dropping Over 1.5% and Briefly Falling Below $4050] 1. During Monday's Asian session, spot gold fell as much as 1.8% to $4044 per ounce. The escalating US-Iran military conflict, with Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices up by over 5%, triggering renewed market concerns about inflation and interest rate hikes, thus putting downward pressure on gold prices. 2. The US and Iran engaged in fierce missile and drone strikes over the weekend. Iran attacked US facilities along the Persian Gulf coast and announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices rose sharply, the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and Asian stock markets generally came under pressure. The South Korean stock market briefly triggered a circuit breaker, closing down nearly 9%, SK Hynix fell 15.3%, and Samsung Electronics fell 10.7%. 3. Market analysts pointed out that gold would face pressure should conflict break out in the Gulf region. Rising oil prices have exacerbated market concerns about inflation and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year. 4. This week, the market will closely watch Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's first semi-annual testimony to Congress, as well as key economic data such as June CPI, PPI, and retail sales. Speeches by other policymakers, including Vice Chairman Bowman and Governor Waller, will also be closely watched. 5. CME Group's FedWatch data shows that traders now expect a 72% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week. Regarding positioning, as of the week ending July 7, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 contracts.
14:42:14
[Heat Wave Hits US, Record Highs Set] Several cities in the Midwestern United States broke record high temperatures on October 12, and a heat wave is expected to continue sweeping across much of the country in the coming days. Preliminary data from the National Weather Service shows that Salt Lake City, the capital of Utah, and Billings, the largest city in Montana, reached a high of 42.78 degrees Celsius on October 12, the highest temperatures recorded in over 150 years. The previous record highs for Salt Lake City and Billings were 41.67 degrees Celsius and 42.22 degrees Celsius, respectively. The heatwave is expected to continue until October 14, significantly increasing the difficulty of fighting wildfires in Utah and Colorado. The National Weather Service predicts that by October 15, high-temperature records will be broken or tied in more than 90 locations across the country, many of which will be nighttime high-temperature records. In Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and other states, nighttime temperatures are expected to remain above 27 degrees Celsius. (Xinhua)
14:22:14
[Israel sets October 27 election, first time in 40 years, Netanyahu faces tough re-election battle] (1) Israel will hold its next general election on October 27, the first time in nearly 40 years that the country has held an election on a legally mandated date. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will also complete his full four-year term. Likud senior member Ofir Katz confirmed that the election will be held on the legally mandated date. The current parliament will end its term on July 17, and parliament is expected to enter its election recess on the same day. All political parties must submit their candidate lists by September 7. (2) The Netanyahu government will become the first Israeli government to complete a full term in more than 50 years. The October election is also the first regular general election held on time since 1988. It is widely expected that this will be the toughest election in Netanyahu's political career. Voters will weigh his leadership performance based on the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, and tensions with the United States. (3) Netanyahu's long-standing image of "security first" is under pressure due to rising casualties, ongoing conflict, and the lack of a clear end-game plan. Corruption allegations and ongoing political infighting also pose challenges to the election. (4) Recent polls show a close race: Channel 12 polls show Likud and the newly formed Yashar party (led by former military leader Eisenkot) tied for first place with 23 seats each; Channel 13 polls predict Eisenkot's party will become the largest party, but the opposition may still fail to reach the 61-seat threshold for a government. (5) Israel uses a proportional representation system, with parliamentary seats allocated proportionally to the votes received by each party. A party must receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament. Netanyahu regained power after a snap election in November 2022, and the current ruling coalition was sworn in on December 29, 2022.
14:10:47
[Prediction Market Users Have Bets Over $197 Million on Midterm Election Results] (1) According to NBC News, prediction market users have bet over $197 million on the results of the US midterm elections. The media analyzed 1,408 open markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, platforms that allow users to bet on a variety of topics, including sports, global events, and political elections. (2) As of Sunday evening, Kalshi data showed that the most likely outcome of the November midterm elections is that the Democrats control both the House and Senate (46% probability), followed by the Republicans controlling the Senate and the Democrats controlling the House (38% probability). Kalshi believes there is a 17% chance that the Republicans will maintain a slight control of both houses, and only a 1.7% chance that the Democrats will flip the Senate and the Republicans will retain the House. (3) Betting on elections through prediction markets is not a new phenomenon. During the 2024 election, Polymarket users bet $3.2 billion on the presidential race between Trump and Harris, with the majority of the bets placed on Trump. (4) In recent months, there have also been several cases of suspected betting on prediction markets using insider information: New York federal prosecutors have charged a Google employee with betting on the 2025 "Search of the Year" list using non-public data; the Department of Justice has charged a U.S. Army soldier with betting on the capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro using details of a raid operation, profiting more than $400,000. (5) Despite the huge amount of money involved in election betting, a recent Politico poll (conducted by Public First from May 17-19) showed that 44% of respondents believed betting on election results should be illegal, 30% believed it should be legal, and 25% were unsure.
14:09:03
[Korea's KOSPI Index Falls Below 7,000 Points, Triggering Seventh Circuit Breaker This Year; Foreign Investors Sell Off Significantly] (1) Affected by the renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) fell below the 7,000-point mark during trading, triggering the seventh circuit breaker this year. This is the first time in nearly two months since May 4 that the index has fallen below 7,000 points in trading. (2) Foreign and institutional investors led the decline by selling off large amounts of stocks: foreign investors sold a net 2.23 trillion won, and institutional investors sold a net approximately 570 billion won; while individual investors bought a net nearly 2.7 trillion won, and the National Pension Fund bought a net approximately 220 billion won. (3) The South Korean stock market has recently experienced violent fluctuations. This morning, the "suspension of programmed trading mechanism" (sidecar mechanism) was triggered for the 18th time this year, and the circuit breaker was activated in the afternoon. So far this year, the South Korean stock market has seen a total of 35 sidecar operations, triggered by 17 buy-side actions and 18 sell-side actions.
14:04:24
[GPIF Has No Intention to Adjust Target Asset Allocation, May Utilize Existing Space to Increase Domestic Asset Allocation] (1) Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan (GPIF) currently has no plans to adjust its target asset allocation, but may utilize the existing permitted scope to invest more funds in domestic assets. The Japanese government is exploring related options. (2) Last Friday, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that the government will seek to encourage pension funds, including GPIF, to "significantly increase their investment in Japanese financial assets." This statement stimulated the rise of the yen and Japanese bonds, with the market betting that GPIF (which managed assets of 293.6 trillion yen, approximately US$1.81 trillion, as of March) may introduce a large amount of funds into the Japanese market. (3) Two Japanese government sources stated that the government is exploring increasing related investments within the existing permitted scope of the benchmark portfolio, but this will not immediately trigger an adjustment to GPIF's medium-term target. (4) GPIF's responsibility is to invest solely for the benefit of pension beneficiaries and cannot use assets to advance government policy objectives. According to the current medium-term management plan, GPIF allocates 25% of its assets to domestic bonds, overseas bonds, domestic stocks, and overseas stocks.
13:36:25
[US Senator Lindsey Graham Dies of Aortic Dissection at Age 71, Shifting Senate Political Landscape] (1) South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham died last Saturday from a “sudden, brief illness” at the age of 71. The Washington, D.C. chief medical examiner preliminarily determined the cause of death to be aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Graham served 23 years in the Senate, serving four consecutive terms, and was still in Kyiv meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky the day before his death. (2) Members of both parties expressed their condolences. Massachusetts Democratic Senator Warren said that although the two sides disagreed on many issues, Graham was always willing to negotiate with humor and wit; Texas Senator Cruz shared a photo of the two traveling together in Paris; Senate Majority Leader Thune praised Graham’s profound influence on the U.S. defense and federal justice system, saying it will last for generations. (3) Under South Carolina law, Governor McMaster (Republican) will appoint a successor to complete Graham’s remaining term (until January 3, 2027). Since Graham had won the primary and was expected to be re-elected, his death meant that the state would have to hold a special Republican primary on August 11, with the candidate filing period from July 21 to 28, and the runoff (if necessary) scheduled for August 25. Several Republicans, including Representative Mays and Representative Norman, have expressed their intention to run, while President Trump said he had candidates but would not reveal them yet. (4) Graham's death left vacancies on several committees. He had been the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee since January 2025. The committee currently has 10 seats each for Republicans and Democrats, and the agenda and chairing arrangements for Tuesday's meeting are yet to be confirmed. Wisconsin Senator Johnson has indicated that he is ready to take over as chairman of the budget committee. Meanwhile, due to Graham's death and Senator McConnell's continued hospitalization, Democrats temporarily hold a 14-13 majority in the appropriations committee.
13:29:40
[JPMorgan Chase tactically longs German and UK bonds, believing energy tail risk is under control] (1) JPMorgan Chase interest rate strategists stated in a report that the bank has established tactical long positions in 10-year German and 10-year UK government bonds, and has set strict stop-loss levels for German bonds, aiming to take profits when the yield falls below 3%. (2) Strategists believe that the possibility of an upside tail risk event in the energy market appears to be under control, thus limiting the risk of further sell-offs in fixed-income products. Nevertheless, the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has brought energy prices and inflation concerns back into focus, leading to a sharp sell-off in developed market bonds, approaching the top of the recent trading range. (3) From a cross-market perspective, after adjusting for relative monetary policy expectations, the yield on US medium-term Treasury bonds is still slightly higher than that of other developed market bonds. Therefore, the bank continues to favor long positions in 10-year German government bonds relative to US Treasuries.
13:23:34
[Pork Prices Surge 15%] According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, national hog and pork prices have risen for two consecutive weeks since July, with a significant increase. On July 12, the wholesale price of pork carcasses at Beijing's Xinfadi Market was 14.4 yuan per kilogram, a 15% increase from July 1. Liu Tong, an analyst at Xinfadi Market, said, "The highest price in early July occurred on July 8, with an average price of 14.55 yuan per kilogram, the highest price since the Spring Festival this year." On the breeding side, national hog prices also began a continuous upward trend at the end of June, accumulating a 12.8% increase in the past two weeks. Experts say that as the capacity of breeding sows continues to decline, the pressure on hog supply will gradually ease in the second half of the year. From the demand side, the start of the school season at the end of the third quarter and the stocking up for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays will drive a recovery in consumption, providing a basis for a moderate recovery in pork prices. It is recommended that farmers take advantage of the current rebounding market conditions to orderly arrange the sale of hogs. (CCTV Finance)
13:18:05
[Russian Officials Say Drone Attacks in Moscow Region Leave 3 Dead and Several Injured] On the morning of July 13th local time, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that since 8:30 PM Moscow time on July 12th, over 350 drones had flown towards the Moscow region. Most were intercepted by air defense systems at long range, and 50 drones were destroyed while approaching Moscow. Additionally, the governor of the Moscow Oblast, Sergei Vorobyov, reported on the morning of July 13th local time that 81 drones had been intercepted and shot down over more than ten areas of the oblast. In the town of Pioneersky in Istra, Moscow Oblast, a drone crash killed three people and injured three others, and caused fires in five private residences. In Solnechnogorsk, Moscow Oblast, a drone struck a multi-story residential building, injuring two people. (CCTV)
13:17:35
[Covered Traffic Surges in Strait of Hormuz After US-Iran Resumption of Conflict, Public Shipping Activity Plummets] (1) According to foreign media reports, publicly visible shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly after the resumption of conflict between the US and Iran, but in recent days several ships have secretly passed through the strait with their transponders off. (2) According to preliminary data analysis by Bloomberg based on Kpler, six commodity carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz with their transponders off last Sunday, and the number of covered traffic over the past three days has exceeded the number of visible passages. (3) Ship tracking data based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals showed that no ships passed through the strait earlier on Monday; however, ships that have appeared on both sides of the strait in recent days were last publicly located on the other side, indicating that they passed through with their transponders off. (4) In terms of routes, visible traffic on the southern route along the Omani coast has completely stopped (the last passage was last Wednesday), while a small number of ships were still passing through the northern security route designated by Iran as of last Saturday. Iran has recently launched multiple attacks on ships using the Oman route (including some that had their transponders switched off), severely impacting shipping activity on that route.
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