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2026-04-09 Thursday

2026-04-09

22:30:03

The change in U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending April 3

Previous : 360 Forecast : 460

Published Value 500

Previous

22:30:03

EIA natural gas implied flow for the week ending April 3 in the United States

Previous : 360 Forecast : -

Published Value 500

Previous

22:20:35

[Several Japanese Opposition Parties Call for Strengthened Arms Export Review] According to Japanese sources on the 9th, in response to the Japanese government's proposed relaxation of arms export restrictions, three Japanese opposition parties—the Nakado Reform Alliance, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the Komeito Party—plan to submit a draft proposal to the government soon, urging it to uphold the pacifist principles enshrined in the Constitution and establish a stricter review mechanism. According to the draft proposal obtained by Kyodo News, the three parties point out that hastily adjusting arms export rules could damage Japan's international reputation and negatively impact its peaceful diplomacy; therefore, a strict institutional framework is necessary. The draft emphasizes that adjustments to export rules should not be decided solely by the government and the ruling party, but should undergo necessary procedures, including parliamentary discussion, to gain public understanding. The draft proposes that exports of highly lethal weapons should be approved by a cabinet decision; for export items exceeding a certain amount, prior notification to the Diet and strict review are required. The draft also calls for a thorough assessment of the impact on regional military balance during the export process, strengthening restrictions on arms transfers to receiving countries; and for "countries deemed to be in armed conflict," clear standards must be established to ensure that related exports comply with the constitutional principles of pacifism and international law. According to previous reports from Japanese media, the Liberal Democratic Party's Security Research Committee held a meeting on the 6th to discuss a plan to relax restrictions on arms exports, and plans to revise the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment" and its application guidelines within April, thus "loosening" restrictions on arms exports. This move has drawn criticism from the Japanese public. Some analysts believe that once the Japanese economy becomes dependent on the military industry and even on war, it will be difficult to break free. (CCTV News)

22:04:39

[IMF Warns of Post-War Consequences: Funding Gap Could Surge to $50 Billion, Global Growth Baseline Systematically Downgraded] ⑴ IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the institution expects demand for financial support to climb to between $20 billion and $50 billion in the near term due to the spillover effects of the Middle East war. ⑵ She pointed out that the conflict, though now suspended, has led to a 13% reduction in global daily oil production and a 20% reduction in daily liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, resulting in a supply shock that has driven up energy prices and continues to disrupt supply chains. ⑶ Georgieva confirmed that the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast, stating that even in the most optimistic scenario, infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, loss of confidence, and other scarring effects will lead to a systemic downgrade of growth ratings. ⑷ The Ras Lafan LNG complex in Qatar, which handles 93% of the Gulf region's LNG production capacity, has been shut down since March 2nd and is expected to take three to five years to restore full capacity. (5) Another 45 million people will face food insecurity, bringing the global hunger population to over 360 million. Supply chain disruptions to industries reliant on inputs such as sulfur, helium for chip manufacturing, and naphtha for plastics will also persist. (6) Georgieva called on countries to abandon unilateral actions and avoid implementing export controls and price controls that could further disrupt the global order. She warned that central banks should decisively raise interest rates if inflation expectations face the risk of decoupling. (7) She cautioned that current deficit spending will increase the burden on monetary policy and amplify upward pressure on the benchmark yield curve, further pushing up debt costs. Global public debt is projected to climb to approximately 100% of GDP by 2029, the highest level since 1948. (8) Analysts believe that the IMF's forecast of the funding gap reflects the vulnerability of emerging markets and developing economies under the dual pressure of soaring energy import costs and tightening financing conditions. The coordinated policy statements from finance officials during next week's spring meetings will be a key window into whether the global financial stability network can operate effectively.

22:00:38

Monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in February

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -0.40%

Published Value 2.70%

Previous

22:00:23

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States for February

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

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22:00:14

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States for February

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

21:47:24

[US Treasuries React Mildly to Data Frenzy, Awaiting CPI Decision and Weekend Negotiations] ⑴ Thursday's flurry of economic data had a limited impact on the US Treasury market. Hedge funds and commodity trading advisors had already sold off medium-term Treasuries before the Chicago Mercantile Exchange opened, but the selling pressure was absorbed, with yields across all maturities holding steady above key support levels. ⑵ The data generally painted a picture of slowing economic growth and shrinking disposable income. The labor market pattern of low hiring and low layoffs remains intact. Given that the data reflects the economic situation before the outbreak of the Iran war, market pricing was limited. ⑶ Traders' focus has shifted to Friday's release of the March Consumer Price Index, which will, for the first time, partially reflect the impact of the war on inflation. Meanwhile, the weekend's fragile-to-breakdown ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran, coupled with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, further exacerbated market anxiety. (4) Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 rose to 219,000, higher than the expected 210,000 and the previous week's 203,000; continuing jobless claims fell to 1.794 million, lower than the expected 1.84 million. (5) The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter was revised down to 0.5%, weaker than the expected 0.7%. Gross domestic income, released for the first time, recorded a significantly strong reading of 2.6%, while real final sales growth fell from 0.4% to 0.3%. (6) Personal income fell 0.1% month-on-month in February, far below the expected 0.3% growth; personal consumption expenditure rose 0.5% month-on-month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations, while the year-on-year increase fell from 3.1% to 2.8%. (7) The yield curve steepened slightly, with the 2-year yield at 3.781% and the 10-year yield at 4.295%. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields widened to 51.41 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields broadened to 111.20 basis points. (8) Analysts believe that before the release of the March CPI data and the clarification of the outcome of the weekend's Iran negotiations, the US Treasury market is likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern. If inflation figures exceed expectations and the Hormuz stalemate continues, a steepening yield curve could gain new catalysts.

21:35:50

[White House Bets on Warsh to Take Over as Fed Chair in May, Powell's Future Remains Uncertain] ⑴ White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Thursday that he is highly confident that Kevin Warsh will take over as Fed chair in May, and expects current chair Powell not to remain on the Fed Board of Governors. ⑵ Hassett revealed that Warsh's confirmation hearings are expected to begin next week, and said that Powell has given a clear signal that he will step down once the new chair is confirmed, a move seen as appropriate and in accordance with regulations. ⑶ However, Powell publicly stated in March that he would not leave the Fed until at least the criminal investigation against him is completed, and has not yet decided whether to continue serving his term on the Board of Governors, which expires in 2028. His term as Fed chair will expire in May. ⑷ A US judge last week upheld the ruling to freeze subpoenas related to the investigation, and the resulting appeals process could further delay the Trump administration's timeline for installing a more compliant central bank leader. (5) Analysts point out that the certainty and timing of the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve are crucial to market interest rate expectations. If Warsh takes over smoothly and Powell completely withdraws from the Board of Governors, the tone of monetary policy may undergo a subtle shift, while any delay in the legal process will prolong the wait-and-see period of the current policy framework.

21:34:32

[Excessive Consumer Spending Fails to Mask Weak Income, US Economic Engine Loses Momentum] ⑴ US personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, slightly below the 0.6% expected by economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. However, real spending, adjusted for inflation, only increased slightly by 0.1%, indicating that purchasing power remained virtually stagnant behind the nominal improvement. ⑵ Personal income recorded its first decline in nine months in February, mainly due to the fifth consecutive month of contraction in Medicaid benefits. Wage growth slowed to 4.3% year-on-year, the second-lowest growth rate since the end of the pandemic, with weak income eroding the foundation of consumption. ⑶ The recovery in car showroom traffic after the cold weather boosted spending on new cars and clothing, but entertainment, dining, and gasoline consumption contracted due to icy roads and parking difficulties. Weather disturbances masked the true temperature of demand. ⑷ The surge in oil prices and the evaporation of stock market capitalization triggered by the Iran war will further suppress consumer spending in the coming months, but the impact is not yet sufficient to push the economy into a dangerous zone. (5) NerdWallet senior economist Elizabeth Lundt points out that consumer spending has stagnated over the past four months, with households tending to cut back on spending as a self-preservation measure when facing or anticipating financial hardship. This will substantially drag down the overall economy through a slowdown in growth. (6) Institutional analysis suggests that before the complete end of the Iran conflict and the clarification of the legal disputes arising from Trump's tariff rhetoric, the US economic growth rate is unlikely to accelerate. Meanwhile, slowing wage growth and persistently high inflation are continuously limiting the Federal Reserve's policy space for further interest rate cuts.

21:31:25

[Barclays Holds Firm at $85 Oil Price Anchor, Sluggish Strait of Hormuz Traffic Brewing Upward Risks] ⑴ Barclays stated on Thursday that the rapid normalization of traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz is consistent with its baseline forecast of $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil in 2026, but warned that any delay in traffic recovery or further escalation of the situation could push oil prices above current levels. ⑵ Barclays energy analyst Amalprit Singh pointed out that despite the ceasefire agreement, actual traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish, with recent data confirming his estimate of approximately 13 to 14 million barrels of supply disruption per day. ⑶ Barclays explicitly disagrees with the view held by some market participants that demand has adjusted sufficiently to suppress oil prices based on inventory data, believing that global inventory balance estimates were already 1 to 2 million barrels per day tighter than expected before the conflict erupted. (4) Under the baseline scenario, the inventory buffer provides ample room for demand contraction; therefore, unless a broader demand slowdown occurs, the bank maintains its forecast of an average Brent crude price of $85 this year and continues to see upside risks to prices. (5) Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday as market doubts persisted about whether the fragile two-week ceasefire agreement could guarantee the smooth flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has so far shown no signs of lifting the blockade. (6) Barclays expects the average Brent crude price to fall back to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter under the baseline scenario, suggesting that current market prices have already largely priced in the optimistic expectation of a eventual return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz.

21:27:20

[Israeli Strikes Against Lebanon Could Shake Regional Peace Window] Following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, a clear north-south divide has emerged in Israel's domestic situation. According to CCTV reporter Zhao Bing, most regions in central and southern Israel have announced the easing of previous wartime restrictions, including the reopening of schools, the lifting of bans on gatherings, and the reopening of airspace. Ben Gurion Airport has also announced the resumption of normal operations. However, restrictions remain strict in northern Israel, with educational activities confined to air-raid shelters and some hospital departments remaining underground. This stark north-south divide stems directly from Israel's continued large-scale strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On April 8, the Israeli Air Force launched a fierce airstrike on nearly 100 targets in Lebanon, causing widespread casualties. The Israeli military explicitly stated that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement does not cover Lebanon. Israeli media analysis suggests that, unlike the US's desire for temporary stability, Israel hopes to use the ceasefire window to thoroughly weaken Hezbollah and send a signal to Iran that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement cannot protect Hezbollah, thereby forcing Iran to make greater concessions in ceasefire negotiations. However, Israel faces significant risks in doing so, potentially provoking retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran, which could derail the ceasefire process and plunge the entire country back into a state of war. (CCTV International News)

21:10:12

[US Buyers Defy Trend and Rush into Spanish Luxury Homes; Trump-Era Anxiety Fuels Transoceanic Safe-Haven Trend] ⑴ Data released Thursday by the Spanish General Council of Notaries shows that US citizens' home purchases in Spain have increased by 3% in 2025, while overall foreign buyer purchases have declined during the same period. US buyers are rapidly entering the Iberian Peninsula's high-end residential market. ⑵ Over the past six years, US buyers' property transactions in Spain have more than doubled, a stark contrast to the 16% decline in British buyers during the same period. Some luxury real estate agencies have seen their US clients surpass those of the British, becoming the largest group. ⑶ Real estate industry insiders cite concerns stemming from Trump's policies as a key driver of this wave of US home purchases. Hispanic Americans have shown particular interest in Spain, viewing it as a permanent residence or alternative safe haven. ⑷ US buyers demonstrate significantly stronger purchasing power in the high-end segment, with an average purchase price of €3,501 per square meter, 29% higher than the average for foreign buyers and nearly double the price paid by Spanish residents. (5) Real estate developer GILMAR disclosed that American buyers surpassed British buyers last year to become the largest foreign customer group in the Costa del Sol region. Luxury real estate company Dils Lucas Fox also stated that American customers have jumped to become the second largest source of foreign buyers after the UK. (6) The strong US dollar provided exchange rate support for this round of home purchases, but analysts believe that even if the dollar weakens against the euro, the pursuit of quality of life, considerations of safety and environment, and the demand for diversified asset allocation will still support the resilience of the underlying demand of American buyers. (7) Reveca Caballero, head of GILMAR's international department in Madrid, said that the core motivations for American customers to purchase property in Spain include the attractiveness of the Spanish lifestyle, the safe and livable environment, and the desire to diversify their overseas asset allocation in the context of disagreement with the domestic political climate.

21:01:23

[The Ceasefire Celebration Cannot Mask the Aftermath: Oil Prices Plunge 40%, Still Significantly Higher Than Pre-War Levels] ⑴ Columnist Jamie McGuire points out that the global market's relief-driven rebound and oil price plunge triggered by the ceasefire agreement are not surprising, but the economic landscape after the initial euphoria dissipates will be far more severe than investors currently believe. ⑵ Even disregarding the real risk of the two-week ceasefire agreement breaking down and oil prices returning to above $100 per barrel, the economic damage caused by the past six weeks of war will last for a considerable period. ⑶ The Nasdaq index returned to its pre-February 28th level before the US-Israel attack on Iran on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 index was similar, with bargain hunters once again pulling Wall Street back from the series of shocks. ⑷ TD Securities strategists warn that normalcy will be drastically different from pre-war levels, and the normalization process for energy supply, inflation, growth, and monetary policy will still take several months to become clear. (5) The decline in gasoline, jet fuel, utility, and fertilizer prices over the next six weeks is unlikely to match the surge of the previous six weeks. Households and businesses will face energy costs far exceeding those of February 27th, inevitably putting pressure on spending and profits. (6) Although US crude oil futures have fallen 20% from their wartime peak last month, and recorded their largest single-day drop in five years on Wednesday, they are still 40% higher than pre-war levels and about 60% higher than the same period last year. This base effect poses a continued threat to the overall inflation outlook. (7) As energy costs are gradually passed on to utility, food, and manufactured goods prices, the US inflation rate this year is unlikely to consistently fall below 3%, and the probability of reaching 4% is higher than the possibility of falling back to the Fed's 2% target. (8) Experts estimate that at least 10 million barrels of crude oil per day would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to provide substantial relief to oil prices, i.e., restore them to half of pre-war levels, a scenario unlikely to materialize in the short term. (9) Stagflationary pressures will be significantly stronger than before the war. Governmental fiscal situations are deteriorating under the dual pressure of crisis spending and rising debt servicing costs. Persistent high policy uncertainty is diminishing central banks' willingness to cut interest rates and increasing their inclination to raise them. (10) Stuart Kaiser, head of equity trading strategy at Citigroup, frankly stated that he would not chase further gains in the S&P 500. Given the current volatile economic landscape, remaining cautious is the wise choice.

21:00:04

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending April 3

Previous : 7554 Forecast : -

Published Value 7675

Previous

20:41:32

[US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Moderately, But Employment Stagnation Remains a Double-Edged Sword] ⑴ Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000, slightly higher than the 210,000 expected by surveys, but still at historically low levels. ⑵ The low layoff rate continues to provide a floor for the labor market. So far, there are no signs that employers have initiated layoffs due to the oil price shock caused by the US-Israel war with Iran, and the resilience of the job market exceeds previous market concerns. ⑶ Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the median duration of unemployment climbed to 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years, and the labor market is deeply mired in what economists call a stalemate of low hiring and low layoffs. ⑷ Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric and large-scale deportation policies is considered the core trigger for this round of hiring freezes. Companies tend to freeze new jobs rather than lay off existing employees before the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer. (5) The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million in the week ending March 28. However, this decline in continuing claims was partly due to unemployed individuals exiting the statistical scope after exhausting the 26-week claim period, rather than an actual improvement in the employment situation. (6) Young adults lacking work experience were most severely impacted by the labor market downturn, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits. The actual extent of unemployment may be systematically underestimated by official data. (7) The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that more and more policymakers believed that interest rate hikes might be necessary to combat inflation. The modest rebound in initial jobless claims is not enough to change the wait-and-see attitude of policymakers. However, if the low employment situation continues to erode residents' income expectations, the foundation of consumer resilience will face the risk of gradual erosion.

20:41:14

[Mexico's Inflation Shows Divergence: War Premium Pushes Up Overall Readings but Cannot Mask Core Slowing] ⑴ Data from Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses shows that, influenced by the war with Iran pushing up global energy costs, the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.59% year-on-year in March. While lower than the median analyst forecast of 4.64%, it was significantly faster than February's 4.02%. ⑵ Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, slowed to 4.45% year-on-year, lower than February's 4.50% and the median analyst forecast of 4.47%, indicating a marginal weakening of core price momentum. ⑶ Sub-items showed significant divergence. Tomatoes, airfares, and food prices saw the largest increases, while internet communication packages, eggs, and pork prices recorded the largest decreases. This mixed pattern within the consumer basket reflects an uneven recovery on the demand side. ⑷ Although soaring oil prices exacerbated imported inflationary pressures, the Mexican central bank's assessment of the war's impact focused more on the downside risks to the economy, believing that the drag on local economic growth from geopolitical conflict might outweigh the transmission of inflation. (5) Analysts point out that the divergence between overall inflation and core inflation has put the central bank's monetary policy in a dilemma. Concerns about economic weakness limit the room for interest rate hikes, while sticky energy costs restrict the option of interest rate cuts. Policy rates will most likely remain unchanged as the central bank observes the situation.

20:41:07

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Total wheat for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 29.64 Forecast : -

Published Value 25.42

Previous

20:40:48

Net export sales of soybean oil in the United States as of April 2 - total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 0.11 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.16

Previous

20:40:32

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Total soybean meal for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 37.74 Forecast : -

Published Value 36.77

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20:40:10

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 35.33 Forecast : -

Published Value 29.54

Previous

20:39:45

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 125.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 137.28

Previous

20:39:26

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - wheat for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 27.28 Forecast : -

Published Value 9.07

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4758.01

38.83

(0.82%)

XAG

 74.415

0.361

(0.49%)

CONC

 102.18

7.77

(8.23%)

OILC

 98.98

2.82

(2.94%)

USD

 98.982

-0.048

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1676

0.0014

(0.12%)

GBPUSD

 1.3411

0.0019

(0.14%)

USDCNH

 6.8377

0.0057

(0.08%)
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