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2026-11-06 Friday

2026-11-06

11:23:37

[US Democratic Representative Adam Smith Pledges Strong Oversight of Pentagon and Seeks Chairmanship of Armed Services Committee] (1) Washington State Democratic Representative Adam Smith, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, pledged on Wednesday to provide “strong” oversight of the Pentagon, including seeking testimony from senior officials and demanding greater transparency from the Department of Defense. (2) Smith is asking colleagues for their support in his bid to chair the committee; he plans to review the Pentagon’s deployment of National Guard troops to US cities, the department’s spending, and the war with Iran. (3) He said it was important to rebuild the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee to support the committee’s work. (4) Smith also questioned the necessity of the Pentagon’s more than $1 billion budget and vowed to investigate the military’s deadly strikes against suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. (5) He added that contracts and other financial support awarded to private companies must be carefully reviewed to ensure they are in the best interests of taxpayers, free from conflicts of interest or bias, and granted in accordance with legal authority and procedures. (6) The letter came after Democrats won a landslide victory in Tuesday’s midterm elections, taking a majority in both houses of Congress and winning several governorships. (7) Smith said he was “committed” to finding a way to pass the National Defense Authorization Act, but warned that he would never sacrifice important principles in order to get the bill through.

11:08:47

[Democrats are preparing legislation to remove Trump's tariffs on Canada as the first step in pressuring Trump's trade agenda] (1) According to a senior Democratic senator in charge of trade affairs, Democrats are preparing action to reverse the Trump administration's tariff policies, with the first target being the trade war between Trump and Canada. (2) Senator Ron Wyden, the ranking minority member of the Senate Finance Committee and a Democrat from Oregon, said that removing tariffs on Canadian products has overwhelming support; he and his colleagues are already discussing related legislation to push for opposition to tariffs imposed by Trump during his second term once he takes over the committee in January. (3) Wyden and people close to him say that the Canadian tariffs are the best opportunity to get Republicans to turn against Trump, and may be able to gain enough support to prevent Trump from vetoing the bill, or even to overturn the veto after he does. (4) This legislation targeting Canadian tariffs is just the first step in a series of actions by Democrats to pressure Trump's trade agenda. (5) Follow-up actions may include legislation to restrict some unusual legal authorizations by which Trump bases tariffs, such as Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930—the basis for Trump’s tariffs on Canada, but which no president has ever invoked before; another target may be Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Trump first invoked earlier this year to impose temporary tariffs.

11:02:55

[Hot News Recap: Russian Refineries Attacked Again, Increased Uncertainty in Diesel Exports to the US] 1. Ukraine's renewed attack on Russian refineries has added further uncertainty to Moscow's diesel supply arrangements to the international market while it grapples with domestic fuel shortages. Analysis suggests that the Ryazan refinery, one of Russia's largest, was likely damaged in a large-scale drone attack targeting the city's industrial zone. If true, this would be the second Russian refinery attacked this week, following the Yaroslavl refinery, breaking the previous suspension of attacks. 2. Regarding shipping data, Kpler and the London Stock Exchange Group data show that at least six Russian diesel cargo ships have issued transatlantic voyage plans; however, two previous shipments originally destined for the US Atlantic coast appear to have changed course. No Russian diesel cargo has arrived in the US since the relevant export agreements were reached. 3. Kpler analyst Matt Smith stated that the first monitored Russian cargo ship bound for the US is expected to arrive in New York this weekend, but its ability to unload smoothly remains uncertain due to regulatory, legislative, and sanctions concerns. 4. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that these were commercial shipments and details could not be disclosed, adding that "all diesel will find buyers." Kremlin envoy Dmitriev stated that Russian diesel tankers bound for the United States were still on their original routes. Peskov also stated that the change in the diesel tankers' course was unrelated to the results of the US midterm elections.

11:00:36

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in October (USD billion)

Previous : 1463 Forecast : -

Published Value 1468

Previous

10:35:53

[Democratic Governing Electoral Victory Exacerbates Concerns About Data Center Oversight, Widening Divergence in AI Deals] (1) The Democratic victory in the key gubernatorial election has increased the likelihood of stricter scrutiny of data center projects and exacerbated investor concerns about the speed of new capacity construction and financing capabilities. (2) In Texas, Democratic-elect Gina Hinojosa proposed a statewide suspension of new data center permits, but projects under construction are reportedly exempt. (3) JPMorgan Managing Director James Sullivan stated that differences in borrowing costs are key to the divergence in AI deals: new cloud service providers have significantly widened their spreads, with additional capital costs far exceeding those of hyperscale cloud service providers, which have more diversified customer and revenue streams; the market believes that limited incremental supply makes existing capacity more valuable. (4) Regarding data center risks, BMI warned that a sharp slowdown in data center construction and AI investment could lead to a larger-than-expected decline in overall investment; most of the capacity expected to come online in 2027 is already under construction, limiting the near-term impact of new restrictions. (5) Nomura stated that projects planned for launch in 2028 are more susceptible to licensing delays and regulatory uncertainty; from 2028 onwards, stricter regulations on data center construction may become a more significant headwind for AI investment. (6) Regarding the AI financing gap, the stock prices of Nvidia-backed CoreWeave, Nebius, and Iren fell by at least 30% in October, and the tightening of the credit market has led to market skepticism about financing for AI infrastructure projects; CoreWeave's five-year credit default swap spread has soared to over 1,100 basis points. (7) JPMorgan Asset Management stated that the key difference lies in the company's ability to absorb delays and finance its capacity building; hyperscale cloud service providers have a broader cloud business and internal cash flow, while newer cloud service providers with lower ratings are more susceptible to borrowing costs, energy prices, and refinancing conditions; if weaker operators scale back, financially stronger hyperscale cloud service providers may obtain cheaper capacity or acquire assets.

10:29:19

【Kramer: AI Stock Sell-off May Not Have Bottomed Out Yet, Don't Panic, I Advise Holding Cash】 (1) CNBC's Jim Kramer predicted on Thursday that the sharp sell-off in AI stocks may still have room to fall, but he urged investors not to panic. (2) Following the midterm elections, opposition to building new data centers has intensified, and the market is skeptical about future AI infrastructure spending, causing related infrastructure companies' stock prices to plummet; Micron fell 17% on Thursday, GE Vernova fell 7%, and SanDisk fell 22%, all three stocks also suffered heavy losses on Wednesday. (3) Kramer said he hopes the sell-off on that day was the bottom, but warned that there may still be room to fall; however, he does not believe this is a repeat of the dot-com bubble, and today's AI companies are fundamentally different from the speculative companies of that time. (4) He believes that many technology stocks, especially semiconductor stocks, have risen too much and seem to have no support; but unlike in 2000, this is more like an orderly decline, because most companies are profitable, but their stock prices are too high. (5) Cramer said that investors had previously assumed that the rapid construction of data centers would continue indefinitely, pushing AI stocks too high; smaller developers such as CoreWeave, Iren, and Nebius are particularly risky because their borrowed projects may face regulatory delays. (6) He said the main concern is the debt associated with new cloud companies, but there are currently no major institutional debt defaults that are enough to devastate the market; a rapid sell-off may be more effective at absorbing the AI bubble than a prolonged decline, and he would like to see "the band-aid ripped off." (7) For investors, Cramer advised keeping plenty of cash; although semiconductor stocks may fall further, lower interest rates, signs of easing inflation, and the possibility of an end to the Iran war are all reasons for optimism. (8) He concluded that having cash prevents panic and complacency, allowing one to remain clear-headed, which is the way to minimize losses before things improve, "things will get better."

10:27:50

[Paraguayan President Resigns Amid Bank Collapse, Political and Financial Turmoil Escalates] (1) Paraguayan President Santiago Peña resigned on Thursday after the collapse of Ueno Bank, a bank closely associated with him, which led to his impeachment by Congress. Paraguay is a key US ally in South America, and this incident has dealt a blow to its export-driven economy. (2) Ueno Bank, Paraguay's fifth-largest bank by assets, has frozen $850 million in deposits, affecting 3 million customers in a country with a total population of only 7.1 million. Demonstrations erupted in the capital, Asunción, as depositors were unable to withdraw their funds. (3) The House of Representatives has initiated impeachment proceedings and is debating whether to accept his resignation. If accepted, Peña will gain a lifetime senator seat and judicial immunity; if impeached, he will face prosecution. The Attorney General's Office has launched a criminal investigation against him. (4) Peña Nieto indirectly held a large number of shares in Ueno, but stated that he had severed ties with the bank and its holding group; after the central bank took over Ueno, he demanded the resignation of the central bank governor who had previously served as a Ueno executive, several bank executives were arrested, and the leader of the Colorado Party, Cartes, also publicly called for his removal. (5) According to the constitution, Vice President Pedro Aliana will succeed Peña Nieto; he is expected to maintain close relations with the United States. (6) Lawmakers, analysts, and business leaders downplayed the impact of the bank failure on the Paraguayan economy, calling it a single bank failure rather than a systemic crisis; however, they acknowledged that the incident exposed the country's weak institutions and excessively close ties between government and business. (7) The deposit guarantee fund is expected to be launched to protect most individual depositors, but support is limited; the price of Ueno's previously issued $350 million bonds has fallen sharply. This incident may also affect Paraguay's investment reputation, and the 2028 presidential election will be a major test for the ruling Colorado Party.

10:26:20

[Saudi Aramco Cuts December Asian Arab Light Crude Price by $2 to Six-Year Low] (1) Saudi Aramco on Friday cut its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian customers by $2 per barrel in December compared to November, widening the discount to the Oman/Dubai average to $6.50 per barrel, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began in May 2020. (2) Pricing documents show that Saudi Aramco also cut the price of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1 per barrel in December, while keeping the price unchanged in the U.S. market. (3) A survey last week showed that due to ample Middle Eastern crude oil supply and weak spot premiums, market participants had expected Saudi Aramco to keep Asian prices unchanged or cut them by up to $2 per barrel to attract buyers. (4) This week, the spot premium for benchmark Middle Eastern crude oil fell back to pre-war levels before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran; despite an increase in attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, increased exports from oil-producing countries boosted supply, while cooling refining margins in Asia also dampened buying interest. (5) HSBC said that the recovery in exports was faster than expected, and raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in the fourth quarter from 6.3 million barrels per day to 8.3 million barrels per day; it also raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s production in 2027 from 8.8 million barrels per day to 9.8 million barrels per day, and expects Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production to recover to about 10 million barrels per day by mid-2027.

10:17:30

[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Stabilizing, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has been largely stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to break this trend. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a state of "low hiring, low layoffs." Economists' consensus expects 62,000 new jobs in October, higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary estimate of 29,000 for September; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. 2. Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, said that the consensus forecast is still not encouraging enough, but the current unemployment rate is at a historical low, and fewer new jobs may be sufficient. He pointed out that the labor force participation rate may be more telling than the unemployment rate; the participation rate rose slightly to 61.8% in September from 61.6% in August, but is still lower than the 62.5% projected for September 2025. 3. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%. The model shows that the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 4. Wage growth is expected to continue to lag behind inflation. Market consensus expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, higher than September's 0.1%; and 2.9% year-over-year, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate was 3.6% in September. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power. 5. North points out that inflation has become "very sticky, with little change over the past few months." Given the stable labor market, the Fed will continue to monitor inflation. In this rate hike cycle, the Fed only raised rates once in September; he stated that such a single rate hike by the Fed is very rare. 6. Salem Abraham, president of Abraham Trading Company, believes that raising interest rates cannot solve current inflation because sticky inflation is more related to energy costs than labor costs; even if the Fed triples interest rates, it cannot prevent wars or lower energy prices. 7. North believes that inflation is spreading to other areas, with energy prices spilling over into core inflation, and tariff shifting also having an impact. This is precisely the problem the Fed needs to address through interest rate hikes. However, since last Saturday, crude oil prices have fallen about 14% from their recent high of $104.99 per barrel, with Brent crude trading around $99.67 per barrel in Asian trading on Friday. Coupled with declining US Treasury yields and weakness in technology stocks, traders have lowered their probability of a December rate hike from 82.7% on Wednesday to 68%.

10:09:22

New Zealand's total reserve assets in October (NZ$ billion)

Previous : 544.03 Forecast : -

Published Value 531.14

Previous

09:59:56

[Japan protests Russia's takeover of Japan Tobacco's assets, Japan Tobacco's stock price plunges 19%] (1) Japan has lodged a formal protest against Russia's takeover of Japan Tobacco's assets. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that Japan lodged a protest through diplomatic channels and urgently demanded that Moscow rescind the move. (2) Katayama said that the Japanese government has consistently demanded that Russia ensure the legitimate interests of Japanese citizens and businesses are not harmed; Japan will continue to closely monitor the situation and work closely with relevant ministries, agencies and Japan Tobacco to make an appropriate response. (3) Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Thursday placing all four of Japan Tobacco's manufacturing operations in Russia under temporary state control. The Japanese government holds more than one-third of Japan Tobacco's shares, and the company has been operating in Russia through its international division since 1999. (4) Japan Tobacco owns brands such as Winston and Camel and is one of Russia's largest tobacco companies, with a market share of nearly 40%; Russia is its key market, contributing about a quarter of the group's profits. (5) Affected by sell orders overwhelming buy orders, Japan Tobacco's stock price fell 19% in the Tokyo market on Friday. Jefferies analysts said that being excluded from the Russian market would be tantamount to losing one of Japan Tobacco's largest businesses; while some Western companies received compensation for their assets seized in Russia, the compensation significantly underestimated the value of the relevant businesses. (6) A spokesperson for Japan Tobacco said that "temporary administration" does not constitute nationalization or expropriation, but did not comment further on its specific meaning; the company is continuing to gather information, consider available options and assess the potential impact, and said it has always conducted business in Russia in accordance with relevant regulations and sanctions. (7) This move comes at a time of tension between Moscow and Tokyo. The Kremlin has condemned Japan for supporting Ukraine, increasing military spending and deepening its relations with the West; last month, Russia also charged a Japanese journalist with espionage.

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