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2026-02-13 Friday

2026-02-22

20:23:34

Gold rebounded 0.7% on Friday, with ANZ raising its target to $5,800. ⑴ Gold rose 0.7% to $4,951.90 on Friday, rebounding from a near one-week low on Thursday, driven by bargain hunting. Investors are closely watching US inflation data released later in the day for clues about the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. ⑵ Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said that bargain hunting by Asian market participants drove the gold price rebound, with demand for gold in the region consistently strong. Demand is robust in the Chinese market as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, while the Indian market saw its first discount in a month this week due to price volatility. ⑶ Gold fell about 3% on Thursday as strong US jobs data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. Selling pressure intensified after breaking below the $5,000 mark. However, independent analyst Ross Norman pointed out that these movements seem unrelated to market fundamentals, and the fundamentals for the entire precious metals sector remain positive. (4) ANZ Bank raised its second-quarter gold price forecast to $5,800 from $5,400 on Friday, emphasizing that gold remains a safe-haven asset against numerous uncertainties. (5) From an allocation perspective, Asian physical demand and upward price target increases by institutions are resonating. Market focus is entirely on tonight's US CPI data. If inflation falls more than expected, it could reignite expectations of interest rate cuts, providing further upward momentum for gold prices; if the data remains strong, the short-term rebound may face a test.

20:05:08

[Trump Plans to Reduce Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to Combat Inflation; US Steel and Aluminum Stocks Plunge in Pre-Market Trading] ⑴ The Financial Times reported on Friday, citing sources, that US President Trump plans to reduce tariffs on some steel and aluminum products. The report stated that officials from the US Department of Commerce and the Office of the US Trade Representative believe that current tariffs have driven up prices for goods such as pie tins and food and beverage cans, thus harming consumers. ⑵ Voters across the country are generally concerned about prices, and the cost of living is expected to be a major factor in the November midterm elections. The latest polls show that only 30% of Americans approve of Trump's approach to the cost of living, while 59% disapprove, including nine-tenths of Democrats and one-fifth of Republicans. ⑶ Following the announcement, shares of US steel and aluminum producers plummeted in pre-market trading. Nucor and Cleveland Cleveland fell about 2.5%, and SteelPower fell 4%. Among aluminum producers, Century Aluminum fell 6%, and Alcoa fell 2%. The benchmark aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange fell to a one-week low. ⑷ Trump imposed tariffs of up to 50% on imported steel and aluminum last year and has repeatedly used them as a negotiating tool. The report states that the government is currently reviewing the list of products affected by the tariffs, planning to exempt some products, halt the expansion of the list, and instead launch more targeted national security investigations on specific goods. (5) From a policy perspective, Trump's move aims to alleviate public anxiety about prices before the midterm elections, shifting towards precise tariffs instead of a comprehensive tariff increase, addressing voter concerns without completely abandoning trade pressure tools. The sharp drop in steel and aluminum stocks reflects market concerns that domestic producers will lose their pricing advantage under tariff protection. (6) The market should pay attention to the specific scope and effective date of the exemption list, and whether this move will affect subsequent negotiation strategies with other trading partners.

20:02:19

[OPEC+ Inclines Towards Resuming Production Increases from April, Oil Prices Plunge $1] ⑴ Three OPEC+ sources stated that the alliance favors resuming increased oil production from April, currently preparing for the summer demand peak, and that US-Iran tensions are supporting stronger oil prices. ⑵ Resuming production increases would allow OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia and member UAE to regain market share—currently, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and other countries are constrained by Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan's production is limited by a series of setbacks. ⑶ The eight OPEC+ oil-producing countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—will hold a meeting on March 1st. Two sources stated that no decisions have been made yet, and negotiations will continue in the weeks leading up to the meeting. ⑷ Following the announcement, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by nearly $1 in the short term, with both experiencing intraday drops exceeding 1%. The market quickly priced in the expected increase in supply. (5) From a supply and demand perspective, if OPEC+ starts increasing production in April, it will break the current tight balance, and the central oil price will face downward pressure. However, the actual impact depends on the pace and scale of the production increase, as well as whether supplies from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Venezuela can truly return to the market. (6) The market should pay attention to the final positions of member countries before the March 1 meeting, as well as the progress of US-Iran negotiations—if geopolitical risks cool down simultaneously, the downward pressure on oil prices will further increase.

20:01:59

Brazil's annual rate of retail sales in December

Previous : 1.30% Forecast : 2.50%

Published Value 2.30%

Previous

20:00:35

Brazil's annual rate of retail sales in December

Previous : 1.30% Forecast : 2.50%

Published Value 2.30%

Previous

20:00:26

Brazil's monthly retail sales rate in December

Previous : 1% Forecast : -0.20%

Published Value -0.40%

Previous

19:31:22

[German Bond Yields Hit Two-Month Low as Munich Security Conference Takes Center Stage] ⑴ On Friday, the yield on benchmark German bonds in the Eurozone remained at a more than two-month low, with the weekly decline expected to be the largest since March. While awaiting US inflation data, the market continues to focus on the upcoming Munich Security Conference, seeking signals from the EU regarding defense spending and the economic outlook. ⑵ German bond movements are more closely following US Treasury yields than domestic data. Citigroup's European interest rate strategist, Jamie Searle, pointed out that looking ahead, European fiscal policy, defense spending, and bond issuance will remain key themes throughout 2026. ⑶ Money market expectations for ECB action this year have shifted, with the current pricing in a 30% probability of a December rate cut, up from about 20% at the beginning of the week. The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell 1 basis point to 2.77%, hitting a new low since December 4 at 2.76% during the session, and down 8 basis points for the week. (4) The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose slightly by 1 basis point to 4.12% in early London trading, after falling in the previous session due to employment data. Market focus is entirely on the U.S. January inflation data to be released later. (5) The yield on the 2-year German bond fell 0.5 basis points to 2.02%. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond was unchanged at 3.39%, with the spread between the Italian and German bonds at approximately 60 basis points, widening from the lowest level since August 2008 at 53.5 basis points in mid-January. Analysts pointed out that progress in European financial integration is a key factor in the further narrowing of yield spreads in the Eurozone in the future.

19:30:33

India's foreign exchange reserves for the week ending February 2

Previous : 7094.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 7170.60

Previous

19:16:47

[Indian Bond Market Calls to Government: More Buybacks, or Yields Won't Come Down] ⑴ Indian bond market participants say the market needs further support, particularly through buyback operations, to significantly lower yields after government bonds rose following an unexpected debt swap. ⑵ On Friday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond was 6.6878%, nearly 5 basis points higher than the intraday low reached after the announcement that the government would swap 755 billion rupees of its holdings of long-term notes with the central bank for bonds maturing next year. The swap is part of the government's debt management strategy, and the latest operation reduces debt servicing and borrowing needs for the next fiscal year. ⑶ Concerns about a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market have pushed the 10-year yield to levels seen more than a year before the central bank began easing policy. VRC Reddy, head of treasury at Karur Vysya Bank, said supply is a major concern in the current environment, and the government should conduct buybacks if there is a cash surplus, which would alleviate borrowing pressure next year. ⑷ Weak investor demand and a large supply have led to rising bond yields, diminishing the economic impact of a significant policy rate cut. The central bank's record bond purchases have failed to calm the market. (5) Murthy Nagarajan, head of fixed income at Tata Mutual Fund, predicts the 10-year yield could rise to 6.80% by March. Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, points out that the spread between 10-year bonds and policy repurchase rates has widened from 15 basis points a year ago to over 150 basis points. (6) Upadhyay believes that unless the government uses its cash balance to repurchase some of its 2027 fiscal year bonds now, market sentiment is likely to remain negative. He expects the 10-year benchmark bond yield to trade in the 6.70%-7.00% range in the short term.

19:12:02

[Government Bond Yield Matrix: US, UK, and Australia Lead, Japan, Germany, and Europe Lag Behind] ⑴ As of Friday, global 10-year benchmark government bond yields showed significant divergence. The US yield was 4.121%, followed by the UK at 4.459% and Australia at 4.760%, ranking at the top; Germany at 2.776%, France at 3.365%, and Italy at 3.381%, placing them in the middle; Japan at 2.213% was at the bottom. ⑵ Using Germany as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +198.3bp, UK +168.3bp, US +134.5bp; Japan -56.3bp, Denmark -15.1bp, and Sweden -10.3bp. ⑶ Using the US as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +63.9bp, UK +33.8bp; other major economies all had negative spreads, with Japan -190.8bp, Denmark -149.6bp, Sweden -144.8bp, and Germany -134.5bp. (4) The 2-year yield also showed significant divergence. The US yield was 3.481%, the UK 3.614%, and Australia 4.233%; Germany 2.068%, France 2.182%, Italy 2.119%; and Japan 1.279%. (5) Using Germany as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +216.5bp, UK +154.7bp, US +141.4bp; Japan -78.9bp, Denmark -18.0bp, and Sweden -17.7bp. (6) Using the US as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +75.2bp, UK +13.3bp; Canada -99.9bp, and other major economies all above -130bp, with Japan -220.2bp, Denmark -159.3bp, and Sweden -159.0bp. (7) From the yield matrix, the UK, US, and Australia are at high interest rates, reflecting the market's continued pricing in inflation and policy tightening; while the Eurozone and Japan are at relatively low rates, reflecting expectations of easing and weak economies. The interest rate differential structure shows that US dollar assets still have a significant premium relative to Eurozone and Japan, while the British pound and Australian dollar are becoming new choices for high-yield currencies. (8) In the future, attention should be paid to the divergence in the policy paths of central banks around the world. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the interest rate differential advantage of US Treasury bonds relative to Eurozone and Japan may further widen; conversely, if Eurozone and Japan unexpectedly change course, the current interest rate differential pattern will face reshaping.

19:08:22

[AI "Whack-a-Mole" Impacts US Stocks, Walmart Earnings and PCE Set the Course] ⑴ As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was down slightly by 0.2% this year, but this small change masked the dramatic fluctuations between sectors. Following a plunge in software stocks, market concerns that new AI tools could disrupt multiple industries, including insurance, wealth management, and transportation, are once again impacting the stock market. ⑵ Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Riley Wealth, described the current sentiment as "whack-a-mole," with investors trying to figure out which industries AI will destroy next. Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technical analyst at BTIG, pointed out that the stock price movements between AI winners and losers are becoming extreme, and if the weak side outweighs the strong side, the entire market will become fragile. ⑶ A rotation pattern is brewing a new leader. The technology sector is down more than 4% this year, but energy, consumer staples, materials, and industrial stocks have all risen at least 10% by 2026, and small-cap stocks have also recorded impressive gains. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, said that the shift in the leading structure is undeniable and is gradually taking root in investors' minds. (4) Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, stated that the lack of tech-led gains makes it difficult to push the index to new all-time highs, but this isn't necessarily a bad thing. Currently, tech stocks account for about one-third of the S&P 500's weighting; continued weakness could drag down the benchmark, but broader participation in the rally is actually a good sign for market health. (5) Next week's focus shifts to Walmart's earnings report and key economic data. Walmart's stock price has risen 20% this year, pushing its market capitalization past $1 trillion. As a consumer bellwether, its quarterly report will reveal consumer spending trends. Economic data includes the preliminary US fourth-quarter GDP, the consumer confidence index, and the core inflation indicator, the PCE price index. (6) Gordon pointed out that sectors that have recently experienced a "catch-up rally" are sensitive to the health of the economy. This may not reflect a significant further acceleration of the economy, but it is at least a sign of stabilization. The market should pay attention to whether AI concerns spread further and whether the rotation rally can gain sustained support with data validation.

19:00:05

Brazil's IGP-10 inflation index monthly rate for February

Previous : 0.29% Forecast : -0.12%

Published Value -0.42%

Previous

18:52:51

The operating rates of soybean crushing at major oil mills across China as of February 13th

Previous : 68.33% Forecast : -

Published Value 46.43%

Previous

18:52:40

The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across China as of February 13th

Previous : 248.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 168.79

Previous

18:52:30

China's weekly soybean meal inventory as of February 13th

Previous : 89.95 Forecast : -

Published Value 88.16

Previous

18:52:27

China's weekly rapeseed meal inventory as of February 13th

Previous : 0.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30

Previous

18:50:54

[Indonesia Imposes Another Ban! Studying Ban on Exports of Tin and Other Raw Materials for the Next Few Years] ⑴ Indonesian Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said on Friday that the country is studying plans to ban the export of several raw materials, including tin, for the next few years. He stated at a conference, "Last year we banned the export of bauxite, and we are studying banning the export of many other raw mineral commodities, including tin, for the next few years." ⑵ Indonesia has previously banned the export of several raw ores, including nickel ore, bauxite, and copper concentrate, aiming to attract investment in domestic processing industries and export high-value-added products. The minister explicitly stated, "We should no longer export raw materials," and encouraged investors to expand their investment in the processing industry. ⑶ From an industrial perspective, Indonesia's tiered ban on raw ore exports aims to replicate the successful downstream development path of nickel ore, keeping resource profits domestically while simultaneously driving the global supply chain to shift towards Indonesian domestic processing. ⑷ For the global market, if a ban on tin and other commodities is indeed implemented in the future, it will reshape the trade flow of related resources, requiring importing countries to accelerate the search for alternative sources or be forced to accept processing premiums. (5) In the future, attention should be paid to the specific timetable and scope of the ban, as well as whether the construction progress of Indonesia's domestic processing capacity can match the policy pace, so as to avoid a sharp drop in export revenue from impacting the balance of payments.

18:44:12

[Trump's Intensive Moves: Aircraft Carrier Pressure on the Middle East, Proposed Tariff Easing, Gaza Reconstruction Fund Unveiled] ⑴ Trump plans to reduce tariffs on some steel and aluminum products to alleviate the "affordability crisis" for Americans, potentially benefiting countries including the UK, Mexico, Canada, and EU member states. ⑵ On the military front, the USS Ford aircraft carrier has been ordered to sail from the Caribbean to the Middle East, becoming the second aircraft carrier deployed to the region, reflecting Washington's increased military pressure on tensions such as the Iran nuclear deal. Trump also warned Iran that it "must" reach an agreement within the next month or so, or the situation will become very bad. ⑶ Regarding the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine relations, US officials revealed that Trump will announce a multi-billion dollar aid plan for Gaza at the Peace Commission meeting next week and provide an update on the international peacekeeping forces. Russia also confirmed that Russia, the US, and Ukraine will hold a new round of talks next week. ⑷ On sanctions and diplomacy, White House energy officials stated that the Treasury Department will further ease sanctions on Venezuela this week, and the Energy Secretary said dozens of US companies are considering entering the country. Trump declared the relationship with Venezuela "extraordinary," but clarified that a certain energy entrepreneur has no authority to act on behalf of the US. (5) Domestically, on the policy and legal front, Trump announced the formal revocation of the EPA's 2009 "Greenhouse Gas Hazard Designation," claiming it would save $1.3 trillion in regulatory costs. Simultaneously, the president agreed to terminate large-scale federal immigration enforcement operations in Minnesota. Furthermore, his $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC is scheduled to go to trial in February 2027. (6) From a policy perspective, tariff easing aims to alleviate domestic inflationary pressures, while the aircraft carrier deployment and the Gaza Fund strengthen Middle East dominance, and easing sanctions on Venezuela targets energy supply diversification. Revoking the quantitative designation and halting immigration enforcement reflect a balance between commercial interests and voter sentiment. (7) Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of US-Iran negotiations, the specific allocation mechanism of the Gaza Fund, and the actual pace of US investment in Venezuela after the easing of sanctions.

18:42:54

[Gold Rebounds Strongly by 1%, Asian Buying Overcomes Data Pressure] ⑴ Gold rose more than 1% on Friday, rebounding from a near one-week low on Thursday, as bargain hunters entered the market. As of 18:00 Beijing time, spot gold rose 1% to $4969.85 per ounce, up 0.2% so far this week; US gold futures rose 0.9% to $4990.30. ⑵ Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said that bargain hunting by Asian market participants appears to have driven the gold price rebound, with demand for gold in Asia consistently particularly strong. Demand in the Chinese market is robust as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, while the Indian market saw its first discount in a month this week due to price volatility suppressing buying. ⑶ Gold fell about 3% on Thursday as strong US jobs data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. Selling pressure intensified after breaking below the $5000 mark. However, independent analyst Ross Norman pointed out that these movements seem unrelated to market fundamentals, and the fundamentals of the entire precious metals sector remain positive. (4) From an allocation perspective, Asian physical demand and upward revisions of target prices by institutions are resonating. ANZ Bank raised its second-quarter gold forecast to $5,800 from $5,400 on Friday, emphasizing that gold is a safe-haven asset against uncertainty. (5) The focus going forward is entirely on tonight's US CPI data. If inflation falls more than expected, it could reignite expectations of interest rate cuts, providing further upward momentum for gold prices; if the data remains strong, the short-term rebound may face a test.

18:35:00

[US Equity Funds Suffer $14.2 Billion Outflow Amid Interest Rate Outlook and AI Anxiety] ⑴ According to LSEG Lipper data, US equity funds recorded a net outflow of $1.42 billion in the week ending February 11, marking the first weekly net selling since January 21. Investor concerns about spending by AI-related companies and a strong jobs report weakening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut were the main reasons for the outflow. ⑵ The Nasdaq fell 2.03% on Thursday as renewed concerns about the potential disruptive effects of artificial intelligence on industries such as software, legal services, and wealth management arose. Meanwhile, the market awaited Friday's January inflation data for new clues about interest rates. ⑶ By size, large-cap funds saw an outflow of $12.34 billion, mid-cap funds saw an outflow of $787 million, while small-cap funds bucked the trend, attracting $2.01 billion. Bond funds saw net inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with $13.37 billion flowing in during the week. (4) From an asset allocation perspective, the shift of funds from the equity market to fixed income reflects investors' defensive stance before the interest rate path becomes clearer; the favor shown towards small-cap stocks may be related to valuation repair and expectations of economic resilience. (5) The focus going forward is on whether inflation data can reignite expectations of interest rate cuts, and whether the outflow of funds from the AI sector will further spread to other technology sub-sectors.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

 84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

 66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

 71.58

-0.31

(-0.44%)

USD

 97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

 1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

 6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)
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