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2025-12-12 Friday

2025-12-20

17:44:43

[GBP/USD 2-Hour Price Analysis] The current GBP/USD price is 1.33785, in a short-term downtrend, having retreated from the recent high of 1.34379. Intraday resistance is at 1.33994 (intraday high), and support is at 1.33731 (intraday low). Based on time series analysis, the recent continuous price decline (e.g., the drop from 1.33951 to 1.33788 between 14:00 and 18:00 on December 12th) suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend, testing support levels. A break below these levels would accelerate the decline; otherwise, the price may remain range-bound.

17:44:25

[Stunning Yield Curve Movement: Historic Flattening Under Correction] ⑴ Institutional data shows that on Tuesday, the slope of the 10-year and 30-year portions of the UK gilt yield curve appeared unusually flat after a directional adjustment, deviating from its three-month regression trend by approximately 11.8 basis points, equivalent to 3.9 standard deviations. ⑵ This level of deviation is statistically extremely rare. If the regression residuals follow a normal distribution, it means that such a high valuation of 30-year gilts relative to 10-year gilts would only occur once every 74 years. ⑶ However, the market has quickly corrected this extreme pricing. Since Tuesday, the 10s/30s yield curve has steepened by approximately 6 basis points. ⑷ Currently, the flatness of this portion of the curve has narrowed significantly to only about 5.5 basis points, equivalent to 1.7 standard deviations, indicating that the extreme pricing distortion in the market has been significantly alleviated.

17:36:12

[Inflation Clouds and Interest Rate Puzzles: A "Confidence Crisis" is Unfolding at Central Banks] ⑴ A recent Bank of England survey shows that the median public expectation for inflation over the next year is 3.5%, slightly lower than August's 3.6%, while the median perception of the current inflation rate has also slightly decreased from 4.8% to 4.7%. ⑵ Despite the easing of short-term inflation expectations, the median expectation for longer-term (five years from now) inflation remains high at 3.7%, slightly lower than August's 3.8%, but still well above the central bank's target level. ⑶ Notably, a high 38% of respondents expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months, a significant increase from 33% in August, while the proportion expecting interest rates to fall has decreased from 29% to 25%. ⑷ Public confidence in the inflation target is wavering, with the proportion believing the target is "roughly appropriate" falling from 38% to 36%, while a high 74% of respondents believe that accelerating price increases will ultimately weaken the economy. (5) There is a discrepancy between the actual situation and public perception. The survey shows that 38% of respondents believe interest rates have risen in the past 12 months, while the proportion who believe they have fallen has dropped sharply from 35% to 26%. This may strengthen expectations of future interest rate hikes. (6) This survey reveals a key contradiction: While the central bank may be about to cut interest rates, the public, due to their personal experience with high inflation, generally expects interest rates to continue rising. This poses a challenge to the transmission and communication of monetary policy.

17:31:37

[Economic Alarm Sounds, Interest Rate Cut a Foregone Conclusion: What's Next for the Pound?] ⑴ Latest data shows that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months to October, with GDP falling 0.1% month-on-month, worse than the market expectation of flat growth, and no growth since June. ⑵ The economy also contracted by 0.1% in October alone, with the dominant service sector output falling 0.3%, and the construction industry also experiencing an unexpected decline. Only the automotive manufacturing industry rebounded only moderately from the impact of cyberattacks. ⑶ The weak data highlights the grim economic backdrop facing Chancellor Reeves before he announces the tax increase budget on November 26th. Pre-budget market uncertainty is considered a significant factor suppressing economic activity. ⑷ Following the data release, the market reacted quickly, with the pound weakening against the dollar, while UK government bond prices rose due to rising expectations of an interest rate cut. ⑸ This data has cast doubt on the Bank of England's forecast of approximately 0.3% economic growth in the fourth quarter. Currently, financial markets believe there is a 90% probability that the central bank will cut interest rates at its meeting on December 18th. ⑹ Although some business organizations have raised their economic growth forecasts for next year due to post-budget government spending plans, structural weaknesses in the economy remain, and future growth prospects will depend heavily on the actual effectiveness of central bank monetary policy.

17:29:58

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 12th, China's grain output in 2025 will reach 1,429.75 billion jin (664.85 million tons), an increase of 16.75 billion jin (8.85 million tons) or 1.2% over the previous year, remaining stable at over 1.4 trillion jin (600 million tons). This indicates a bumper harvest of grain nationwide.

17:29:26

Azerbaijan Statistical Committee: Azerbaijan's oil production reached 25.3 million tons from January to November.

17:27:20

[US Electric Vehicle Sales Plunge in November, Tesla Falls to Nearly Four-Year Low] ⑴ Data released by US automotive consulting firm Cox shows that Tesla's electric vehicle sales in the US fell to their lowest level in nearly four years in November. ⑵ Data shows that overall US electric vehicle sales declined by more than 41% year-on-year in November, with Tesla's competitors experiencing even larger declines. ⑶ Analysts point out that since the US federal government stopped providing tax credits of up to $7,500 per electric vehicle starting September 30th, US consumers who originally planned to buy electric vehicles may consider other models instead. ⑷ In response to the subsidy cancellation, Tesla launched simplified versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in October, with prices reduced by about $5,000 compared to the previous base models. The simplified Model 3 is currently Tesla's cheapest model on sale; however, consumers still didn't buy it, and Tesla's sales declined significantly in November. ⑸ The cancellation of the tax credit policy not only impacted Tesla's sales but also had a more severe impact on other electric vehicle manufacturers.

17:25:29

[Russian Foreign Minister Explains Russia's Position on Resolving the Ukraine Crisis] ⑴ Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that since the beginning of 2014, Russia has done everything possible to resolve the Ukraine crisis. ⑵ He emphasized that Russia insists on a comprehensive agreement to ensure a stable, sustainable, and long-term security guarantee and peace for all parties involved. ⑶ Lavrov pointed out that Europe is currently only concerned with a ceasefire and may use the respite following the ceasefire to continue providing military aid to Ukraine. ⑷ He stated that Russia's focus is on eliminating the root causes of the crisis.

17:23:20

Türkiye stated that the situation regarding the Russian S-400 air defense system will remain unchanged during negotiations with the United States regarding the F-35 fighter jet.

17:20:40

The General Offices of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Transport, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Data Administration jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of a Product Carbon Footprint Factor Database." Based on the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Database, the guidelines encourage pilot projects, joint participation, and effective collaboration from all parties. The initial construction of the product carbon footprint factor database is expected to be completed by 2027, and by 2030, a comprehensive, high-quality, and internationally influential database will be largely established.

17:13:51

JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Google's parent company, Alphabet, from $340 to $385.

17:12:57

[Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán Opposes EU Decision to Freeze Russian Assets] ⑴ Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on social media on the 12th that the EU would vote that day on freezing Russian assets, a move that would cause irreparable damage to the EU, and Hungary opposes it. ⑵ Orbán pointed out that the decision on freezing Russian assets should be made by a vote of EU member states every six months, reaching a consensus. Brussels, through the procedure on the 12th, canceled the requirement for unanimous agreement, which is clearly illegal. ⑶ He emphasized that the European Commission, which is supposed to oversee compliance with EU treaties, is systematically violating European law.

17:12:38

[US Pre-Market: Chinese ADRs and Large Tech Stocks Show Mixed Performance] ⑴ US ADRs showed mixed performance in pre-market trading, with TAL Education Group up 3%, XPeng Motors up 0.8%, Pinduoduo up 0.7%, and Alibaba up 0.5%. ⑵ Large tech stocks showed mixed performance in pre-market trading, with Google Class A shares up 0.6%, Apple up 0.1%, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla unchanged, Meta down 0.2%, and Nvidia down 0.4%.

17:12:07

To further facilitate bond trading for market participants, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has revised the "Shanghai Stock Exchange Bond Trading Business Guidelines No. 1 – Trading Business," further clarifying the procedures and requirements for emergency transactions and non-trading transfers. The revised guidelines are hereby released, and the following matters are hereby notified: 1. The revised guidelines shall take effect from the date of release; 2. Transaction details and summary data for bond lending will not be published for the time being; the specific publication date will be announced separately. (SSE)

17:09:42

[PBOC: Cross-border RMB settlement under current account reached RMB 1.49 trillion in January, while cross-border RMB settlement for direct investment reached RMB 0.71 trillion] In November, cross-border RMB settlement under current account reached RMB 1.49 trillion, of which goods trade, services trade and other current account items amounted to RMB 1.19 trillion and RMB 0.3 trillion respectively; cross-border RMB settlement for direct investment reached RMB 0.71 trillion, of which outward direct investment and foreign direct investment amounted to RMB 0.26 trillion and RMB 0.45 trillion respectively.

17:08:28

[PBOC: The weighted average monthly interest rate for interbank RMB lending in November was 1.42%, and the weighted average monthly interest rate for pledged bond repurchase was 1.44%] In November, the total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market through lending, spot trading, and repurchase agreements reached 187.7 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 9.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Specifically, the daily average transaction volume for interbank lending decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, the daily average transaction volume for spot trading increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and the daily average transaction volume for pledged repurchase agreements decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending in November was 1.42%, 0.03 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The weighted average interest rate for pledged repurchase agreements was 1.44%, 0.04 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

17:08:04

[The People's Bank of China Releases Financial Statistics for the First 11 Months of 2025] ⑴ Preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in total social financing in the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. ⑵ At the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%; the narrow money supply (M2) balance was 112.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; and the currency in circulation balance was 13.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Net cash injection in the first eleven months was 917.5 billion yuan. ⑶ At the end of November, the outstanding amount of total social financing was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Among them, the outstanding balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; and the outstanding balance of government bonds was 94.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. ⑷ In the first eleven months, RMB deposits increased by 24.73 trillion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 12.06 trillion yuan, and non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.09 trillion yuan. (5) RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first eleven months. By sector, household loans increased by 533.3 billion yuan, and loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 14.4 trillion yuan. (6) The People's Bank of China announced that the "Interim Measures for the Qualification Management of Central Treasury Centralized Collection and Payment Agent Banks" will be repealed from January 1, 2026.

17:07:36

[PBOC: RMB Loans Increased by 15.36 Trillion Yuan in the First 11 Months] At the end of November, the outstanding balance of RMB and foreign currency loans was 274.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The outstanding balance of RMB loans at the end of November was 271 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months. By sector, household loans increased by 533.3 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 732.8 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 14.4 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 4.44 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 8.49 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.31 trillion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 33.2 billion yuan. At the end of November, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was 542.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Foreign currency loans increased by 800 million US dollars in the first 11 months.

17:07:20

The People's Bank of China announced that on December 15, it will conduct 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations through a fixed-quantity, interest rate-based bidding process with multiple price levels, for a term of 6 months (182 days).

17:07:12

[PBOC: RMB Deposits Increased by 24.73 Trillion Yuan in the First 11 Months] At the end of November, the balance of RMB and foreign currency deposits reached 334.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of November was 326.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. RMB deposits increased by 24.73 trillion yuan in the first 11 months. Among them, household deposits increased by 12.06 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.09 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 2.04 trillion yuan, and non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 6.74 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the balance of foreign currency deposits reached 1.06 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. Foreign currency deposits increased by 206.7 billion US dollars in the first 11 months.

17:06:44

[PBOC: Broad Money Supply Grows 8%] At the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 112.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Net cash injection in the first eleven months was 917.5 billion yuan.

17:06:31

[PBOC: Total Social Financing Reaches 33.39 Trillion Yuan in First Eleven Months] Preliminary statistics show that the total social financing in the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 136.8 billion yuan (equivalent to RMB), 187.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year; entrusted loans increased by 89.5 billion yuan, 145.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year; trust loans increased by 300.3 billion yuan, 82.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 160.5 billion yuan, 356.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of corporate bonds reached 2.24 trillion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of government bonds reached 13.15 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises reached 420.4 billion yuan, 178.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

17:06:07

[PBOC: Total Social Financing Stock Up 8.5% Year-on-Year] Preliminary statistics show that as of the end of November 2025, the total social financing stock was RMB 440.07 trillion, up 8.5% year-on-year. Specifically, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy totaled RMB 267.42 trillion, up 6.3% year-on-year; outstanding foreign currency loans to the real economy (converted to RMB) totaled RMB 1.13 trillion, down 16.5% year-on-year; outstanding entrusted loans totaled RMB 11.32 trillion, up 1% year-on-year; outstanding trust loans totaled RMB 4.6 trillion, up 7.4% year-on-year; outstanding undiscounted bank acceptance bills totaled RMB 2.3 trillion, up 0.4% year-on-year; outstanding corporate bonds totaled RMB 34.08 trillion, up 5.6% year-on-year; outstanding government bonds totaled RMB 94.24 trillion, up 18.8% year-on-year; and outstanding domestic shares of non-financial enterprises totaled RMB 12.14 trillion, up 4% year-on-year. In terms of structure, at the end of November, the outstanding balance of RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.8% of the total social financing, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year; the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy (converted to RMB) accounted for 0.3%, unchanged year-on-year; the outstanding balance of entrusted loans accounted for 2.6%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; the outstanding balance of trust loans accounted for 1%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; the outstanding balance of undiscounted bank acceptance bills accounted for 0.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; the outstanding balance of corporate bonds accounted for 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; the outstanding balance of government bonds accounted for 21.4%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year; and the outstanding balance of domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.8%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year.

17:05:31

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that, in order to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct RMB 600 billion of outright reverse repurchase operations on December 15, 2025, using a fixed-quantity, interest rate-based bidding method with multiple price levels, for a term of 6 months (182 days).

17:05:14

China's annual rate of M1 money supply in November

Previous : 6.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.90%

17:05:05

China's new RMB loans in November - year-to-date

Previous : 149700 Forecast : 154176

Published Value 153600

17:05:01

China's annual rate of M0 money supply in November

Previous : 10.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 10.60%

17:04:52

China's annual rate of M1 money supply in November

Previous : 6.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.90%

17:04:45

China's social financing scale in November - year-to-date

Previous : 309000 Forecast : 330998

Published Value 333900

17:04:43

China's annual rate of M0 money supply in November

Previous : 10.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 10.60%

17:04:33

China's social financing scale in November - year-to-date

Previous : 309000 Forecast : 330998

Published Value 333900

17:04:33

China's new RMB loans in November - year-to-date

Previous : 149700 Forecast : 154176

Published Value 153600

17:04:20

China's M2 annual rate of money supply in November

Previous : 8.20% Forecast : 8.30%

Published Value 8%

17:04:03

The annual rate of the balance of various RMB loans in China in November

Previous : 6.50% Forecast : 6.50%

Published Value 6.40%

17:03:52

China's M2 annual rate of money supply in November

Previous : 8.20% Forecast : 8.30%

金银石油

Published Value 8%

17:03:00

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1710.00/oz mark, last trading at $1710.05/oz, up 2.32% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1733.7/oz, up 1.20% on the day.

17:02:44

[German DAX Index Extends Gains, Hitting Two-Month High] ⑴ The Frankfurt DAX index rose for the second consecutive trading day on Friday, gaining 0.6% to near 24,450 points, its highest level since October 9. ⑵ Investors disregarded concerns about artificial intelligence, focusing instead on positive signals from the Federal Reserve following its rate cut, which opens the door to another rate cut in 2026. ⑶ Retail stocks performed strongly, with Adidas and Puma rising 2.4% and 4.5% respectively, after optimistic sentiment was fueled by Lululemon's upward revision of profit guidance.

17:02:20

[Report: Global Technology M&A Transaction Value Increased by Over 60% Year-on-Year in the First Three Quarters of 2025] ⑴ According to the 2025 Technology M&A Market Survey Report released by Mergermarket and Morrill, while the volume of M&A transactions in the global computer software, hardware, and semiconductor sectors declined in the first three quarters of 2025, the transaction value increased significantly by 60.2% year-on-year, reaching $787.1 billion, with an increase in large-scale transactions. ⑵ The United States accounts for approximately two-thirds of the global technology M&A market transaction value, and the global technology M&A landscape is becoming more fragmented. ⑶ Europe and Asia are gradually becoming new hotspots for global transaction initiation. ⑷ Respondents still prefer to acquire young companies with a development time of two to five years; transaction parties hope to seize high-growth opportunities, especially in disruptive sub-sectors such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.

17:02:00

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,310.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,310.05/ounce, up 0.71% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,341.30/ounce, up 0.66% on the day.

17:01:10

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Zinc

Previous : 550 Forecast : -

Published Value 1575

17:01:02

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Copper

Previous : 875 Forecast : -

Published Value 50

17:01:00

Spot silver just touched the $64.00/ounce mark and is currently trading at $64.00/ounce, up 0.72% on the day; COMEX silver futures are currently trading at $64.38/ounce, down 0.34% on the day.

17:00:54

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Tin

Previous : 40 Forecast : -

Published Value -25

17:00:48

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Nickel

Previous : -240 Forecast : -

Published Value 180

17:00:42

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Primary aluminum

Previous : -2050 Forecast : -

Published Value 900

17:00:35

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Lead

Previous : -75 Forecast : -

Published Value -725

17:00:26

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

17:00:24

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

17:00:21

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on December 12th - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:59:30

UK Government: Four New Sanctions Targets Designated Under Sudan Sanctions Rule

16:59:16

Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture: As of now, the 2025 grain harvest has reached 55.5 million tons.

16:59:06

According to the Ministry of Transport's Comprehensive Emergency Command Center, as of 12:00 PM today (December 12), due to snowfall and icy roads, 214 sections of national and provincial highways in eight provinces (autonomous regions)—Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang—have implemented proactive closure and control measures. These include 123 expressways, 7 national highways, and 10 provincial highways. Among these, 49 sections have their main lines closed, and 165 sections have their toll stations closed. Additionally, due to heavy fog, six sections in Henan Province have implemented proactive prevention and control measures, and 11 toll stations have been closed. (CCTV News)

16:58:46

[Turkish Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Again by 150 Basis Points to 38%] ⑴ Amid a larger-than-expected drop in inflation, the Central Bank of Turkey announced another interest rate cut on December 11, lowering the benchmark rate by 150 basis points to 38%. ⑵ This move indicates the central bank is continuing its easing cycle after inflationary pressures eased. Turkey's inflation rose 31.07% year-on-year in November, the lowest level since the end of 2021. ⑶ In its statement, the central bank said that while inflation expectations and pricing behavior still pose risks, they have improved to some extent, with weaker food prices being the main reason for the lower-than-expected data for the month. ⑷ The central bank believes that the overall demand environment in the fourth quarter is conducive to a decline in inflation.

16:57:14

The Japanese auto workers' union will seek a $77 increase in monthly base wages next year.

16:56:59

[The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a net 4.7 billion yuan into the market this week; 668.5 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature next week] ⑴ Wind data shows that the PBOC conducted 668.5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations in the open market this week. ⑵ As 663.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured this week, the PBOC injected a net 4.7 billion yuan into the market. ⑶ Wind data shows that 668.5 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature in the open market next week. Specifically, 122.3 billion yuan, 117.3 billion yuan, 189.8 billion yuan, 118.6 billion yuan, and 120.5 billion yuan will mature from Monday to Friday, respectively. ⑷ In addition, 400 billion yuan of 182-day outright reverse repos and 80 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature next Monday.

16:56:43

[Oil Prices Rise but May Close Significantly Lower This Week; Market Focuses on Geopolitical and Supply/Demand Outlook] ⑴ Oil prices rose on Friday, but are likely to see a significant drop this week. The market is focused on diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and overall bearish fundamentals suggest a supply glut next year. ⑵ Brent crude rose 0.5% to $61.59 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $57.77 per barrel. However, both benchmark crudes fell 2.6% and 3.2% respectively this week. ⑶ Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are expected to be the main focus of the market next week, while traders are also watching the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. ⑷ The International Energy Agency stated that the market's estimated supply glut has narrowed, but a large supply surplus continues to cast a shadow over the outlook. OPEC's supply and demand forecasts, on the other hand, indicate a relatively balanced market next year. ⑸ ANZ analysts noted: "This is a sharp reversal from the earlier outlook this year, which suggested a tighter market."

16:55:42

Kremlin aide: Moscow did not see the revised US proposal after talks with Ukraine and is likely "dissatisfied with many aspects of it."

16:55:14

RIA Novosti: A Kremlin aide said the US will sooner or later discuss the outcome of its talks with Ukraine with Moscow.

16:54:39

Russia's seaborne petroleum product exports fell 0.8% in November compared to October.

16:53:29

The Australian dollar has just broken through the 104.00 level against the Japanese yen, and is currently trading at 104.01, up 0.34% on the day.

16:53:09

A game of licking blood off a knife during a sovereign debt crisis Details>

16:51:28

[London Precious Metals Mining Stocks Rise] ⑴ Precious metals mining stocks listed in London rose. ⑵ Hochschild Minerals shares rose 8%, and Fresnillo shares rose 5.5%.

16:50:03

[Capital Economic Research: Unexpected UK Economic Contraction Strengthens Jokes for Bank of England Rate Cut] ⑴ Capital Economic Research economist Ruth Gregory stated in a report that the unexpected contraction in the UK economy in October strengthened the case for a Bank of England rate cut next week. ⑵ She pointed out that the 0.1% overall economic contraction in October was particularly disappointing, given the modest growth in manufacturing output. Manufacturing rebounded after the Jaguar Land Rover cyberattack in September. ⑶ Gregory stated: "It is noteworthy that the economy has only grown in one of the past seven months. The size of the economy is flat compared to the beginning of the second quarter, and manufacturing output has not exceeded mid-2023 levels." ⑷ She stated that the weak economy, slowing labor market, and declining inflation have strengthened market confidence in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on December 18th.

16:49:38

[Eurozone Bond Yields Rise Following US Treasuries] ⑴ Eurozone government bond yields rose, following the trend of similar US bonds. ⑵ US Treasury yields turned positive, reversing some of the losses from the previous day's Fed rate cut, which opened the door to further rate cuts. ⑶ Deutsche Bank analysts said the rise in yields was due to the Fed's unanimous agreement to reappoint 11 regional Fed presidents to the Fed Board, easing market concerns about the Fed's independence and potential pressure to cut rates. ⑷ However, yield increases were limited as Eurozone bond investors prepared for a busy week ahead. Next week will include the ECB policy statement and US inflation data. ⑸ Data showed that the 10-year German government bond yield rose 0.9 basis points to 2.854%.

16:49:04

[Citigroup: Impact of US Debt Levels on the Economy and Markets Generally Manageable] ⑴ In a report, Citigroup's Global Chief Economist, Nathan Hitz, stated that while US debt levels pose a headwind to the economy and markets, their impact should be manageable. ⑵ He noted, "Any premium demanded by the market to absorb upcoming Treasury issuances will not significantly constrain economic growth or the government's borrowing capacity." ⑶ Hitz believes that the core strengths of the US economy—including its resilience and dynamism—give investors confidence in purchasing its debt, despite high debt levels and political noise. ⑷ He emphasized, "Ultimately, there are few substitutes for US Treasury bonds."

16:48:23

[KPMG UK: UK Economy Expected to Weak in Q4] ⑴ KPMG UK Chief Economist Yale Selfin stated in a report that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% in October, and growth is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Economic activity in November may be constrained by uncertainty surrounding the government budget. ⑵ She noted that although the budget avoided upfront tax increases and borrowing costs will decline over the next year, their impact may persist, and household confidence is unlikely to improve in the short term. ⑶ Selfin stated that the outlook for investment growth is more positive, which should be a key contributor to economic growth in 2026. ⑷ Nevertheless, she expects GDP growth to remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2025.

16:46:09

[European Stocks Extend Gains] ⑴ The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.5% on Friday, and the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.3%, marking the second consecutive day of gains. This followed a rate cut and more dovish-than-expected comments from the Federal Reserve, boosting global market optimism. ⑵ Bank stocks performed strongly: BNP Paribas shares rose 1.4% after announcing exclusive talks with Holmacom Group to sell a 67% stake in its Moroccan subsidiary, Banco Comercial de Morocco; HSBC rose 1.8%, UBS rose 4.4%, and Barclays rose 1.3%. ⑶ In the retail sector, Adidas rose 2.4%, and Puma rose 4.5%, after Lululemon raised its annual profit forecast. ⑷ This week, the Stoxx 50 index rose 0.5% cumulatively, and the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.4% cumulatively.

16:44:28

[Euro Holds Near Two-Month High Against Dollar] ⑴ The euro traded near a two-month high against the dollar, primarily boosted by expectations of a policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. ⑵ The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further cuts; in contrast, the European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. ⑶ ING stated in a report: "ECB President Christine Lagarde will present new forecasts, which should be the first test of the market's current expectation of no further rate cuts, and this aligns with our view." ⑷ The euro was flat at 1.1740 against the dollar, but remained close to the high of 1.1762 reached on Thursday.

16:43:08

[Gold Prices on track for weekly gain, silver hits record high] ⑴ Gold prices are poised for a weekly gain after the Federal Reserve implemented its much-anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut this week, while investors anticipate further policy easing next year. ⑵ New York gold futures rose 0.2% in early trading to $4,322.20 per ounce, a 1.9% increase for the week. ⑶ Silver futures hit a record high of $64 per ounce. ⑷ A Sucden financial analyst stated, "While silver has attracted speculative momentum amid talk of supply shortages, gold's price movements remain more closely linked to the broader policy outlook and real yields. We expect gold to continue serving as a more reliable indicator of macro sentiment, and its near-term upside is likely limited unless the dollar weakens significantly further."

16:42:23

[Hungary's Construction Output Growth Slows in October] ⑴ Hungary's construction output grew by 9.7% year-on-year in October 2025, a slowdown from the significant 17.6% growth in the previous month, which had previously marked the strongest growth since February 2022. ⑵ Civil engineering activity slowed sharply to 3.7%, compared to a more than one-year high of 17.1% in September; construction activity slowed to 14.7%, lower than the near two-year high of 18.3% in September. ⑶ After seasonal adjustment, construction output fell by 1.9% month-on-month in October, reversing the 16.4% increase in the previous month. ⑷ From January to October 2025, Hungary's construction activity grew by a cumulative 2.5%.

16:42:00

[Spain's November Inflation Rate Confirmed at 3%] ⑴ Spain's annual inflation rate for November 2025 was 3%, slightly lower than October's 3.1%, in line with preliminary estimates. ⑵ The slowdown in inflation was mainly driven by a slower increase in housing and utility prices, which rose by 5.7%, lower than October's 7.5%, with electricity prices rising by 11.9%, lower than October's 18.7%. ⑶ On the other hand, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices accelerated to 2.8%, higher than October's 2.4%, mainly due to rising prices of oils, milk, cheese, and eggs. ⑷ Entertainment and cultural prices also accelerated to 1.2%, higher than October's 0.1%, mainly driven by rising all-inclusive holiday costs. ⑸ Core inflation, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, was confirmed at 2.6%, a one-year high, higher than October's 2.5%. ⑹ The EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly higher than the previously estimated 3.1%, and in line with October's growth rate. (7) On a month-on-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, compared to 0.7% in the previous month; the EU harmonized index remained flat month-on-month, compared to 0.5% in the previous month, both in line with preliminary estimates.

16:41:15

[Azerbaijan's GDP Growth Nears One-Year High in First 11 Months of 2025] ⑴ Azerbaijan's GDP grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, accelerating from the 1.3% growth rate in the ten months ending in October, but lower than the 4.1% growth rate in the same period last year. ⑵ This is the fastest growth since December 2024, with the value added of the non-oil and gas economy increasing by 3.2%, while the oil and gas sector contracted by 1.8%. ⑶ From the production side, industry is the largest contributor to GDP, accounting for 34%; followed by trade and vehicle repair at 10.6%; transportation and warehousing at 7.2%; construction at 6.5%; agriculture, forestry, and fisheries at 6.4%; tourism, accommodation, and public catering at 2.8%; information and communication at 1.9%; other sectors at 21.1%; and net import taxes at 9.5%.

16:40:55

[France's November Inflation Rate Confirmed at 0.9%] ⑴ France's annual inflation rate for November 2025 was 0.9%, unchanged from October and in line with preliminary estimates. ⑵ Service price increases slowed to 2.2%, lower than October's 2.4%, with accommodation services rising 0.8%, private vehicle-related services rising 2.2%, and vehicle maintenance and repair rising 2.4%. ⑶ The decline in manufactured goods prices widened slightly to 0.6%, mainly driven by a 3.3% drop in the price of large household appliances and a 1% drop in the price of games, toys, and hobbies. ⑷ In contrast, the decline in energy prices slowed to 4.6%, while food inflation rose slightly to 1.4%. Meat prices rose 2.5%, sugar, jam, honey, and chocolate prices rose 5.3%, non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 9.5%, and milk, cheese, and egg prices rose 0.8%, showing significant increases. ⑸ Tobacco prices continued to rise by 4.1%. ⑹ On a month-on-month basis, the consumer price index fell by 0.2%, slightly higher than the preliminary estimate of a 0.1% decline. (7) The EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 0.8% year-on-year and fell 0.2% month-on-month.

16:40:21

[FTSE 100 Rises on Friday, Led by Bank and Mining Stocks] ⑴ The FTSE 100 rose 0.5% on Friday, boosted by strong gains in bank and mining stocks despite weak UK macroeconomic data. ⑵ Standard Chartered rose over 2%, HSBC rose 1.8%, Barclays rose 1.4%, and NatWest Bank rose over 1%. ⑶ Precious metal miners also performed well, with Fresnillo rising about 4%, Endeavour rising 2%, while Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Rio Tinto rose 1% to 2%. ⑷ The market was unaffected by new signs of economic weakness: UK GDP fell 0.1% in October, in line with the decline in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of stagnation. The services sector contracted 0.3%, construction fell 0.6%, while a 1.1% rebound in industrial output partially offset these declines. ⑸ The weak data reinforced market expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in 2026, helping the stock market maintain its positive momentum.

16:38:48

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,300.00/ounce mark, last trading at $4,300.08/ounce, up 0.48% on the day; COMEX gold futures are last trading at $4,331.00/ounce, up 0.42% on the day.

16:37:29

[Ministry of Natural Resources Further Clarifies Matters Related to Reserve Prices for Mining Rights Transfers] ⑴ The General Office of the Ministry of Natural Resources recently issued a notice further clarifying matters related to reserve prices for mining rights transfers, in order to safeguard the rights and interests of the state as the owner of mineral resources and ensure fair and just transactions in the transfer of mining rights. ⑵ The notice clarifies that situations requiring a reserve price for mining rights transfers include: transfers of mining rights through bidding; transfers of exploration rights through auction or listing where general surveys of non-oil and gas minerals have been completed or pre-exploration work for oil and gas minerals has been completed; and transfers of mining rights directly through auction or listing. ⑶ The reserve price for mining rights transfers should follow market principles, be close to the fair value of mining rights under open, fair, and fully competitive market conditions, and be determined by the transferor, and shall not be lower than the starting price. ⑷ When determining the reserve price, the transferor may entrust a mining rights appraisal institution to conduct an appraisal, and the appraisal result will serve as an important reference for determining the reserve price, or methods such as price inquiry or comparison may be used to determine the reserve price. (5) For minerals listed in the "Catalogue of Minerals Subject to the Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Revenue in the Form of Mineral Rights Transfer Rate (Trial Implementation)," the assessed value of the reserve price for mineral rights does not include the mineral rights transfer revenue collected in the form of transfer rate. (6) The notice also stipulates that in competitive bidding, the reserve price may be adjusted upwards or downwards when unsold mineral rights are re-auctioned. (7) The reserve price for mineral rights transfer must be kept confidential and cannot be changed before the end of the transfer transaction. (8) When transferring mineral rights, the Ministry of Natural Resources may entrust provincial natural resources departments to determine the reserve price for mineral rights transfer. Each provincial department may formulate its own management measures based on this notice and in conjunction with local realities. (9) The relevant provisions in this notice will take effect on January 1, 2026.

16:36:40

[Rubber Surges Nearly 3%, Supply Panic and Oil Prices: Who Ignited the Fuse?] ⑴ Malaysian rubber prices closed higher on Friday, with SMR 20 standard rubber rising to 724 sen per kilogram, a daily increase of approximately 2.5%. ⑵ This rise was mainly driven by the overall upward trend in regional rubber futures and the strengthening of international crude oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising slightly by 0.44% during the same period. ⑶ Market sentiment was supported by two factors: on the one hand, unfavorable weather in Thailand triggered market concerns about reduced natural rubber supply; on the other hand, there were optimistic expectations for China's economic policies. ⑷ However, the price increase was limited, mainly due to factors including the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit against the US dollar and the slowdown in global electric vehicle sales growth. ⑸ In the future, it is necessary to continue to monitor the actual impact of weather in major producing countries on the supply side, as well as the combined effect of oil price and exchange rate changes on rubber costs.

16:36:11

[Weak UK GDP Data Keeps Bond Yields Flat] ⑴ UK bond yields remained largely unchanged after weaker-than-expected GDP data was released. The data showed that October GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%. ⑵ This data further increased the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut on December 18th; however, due to high inflation, the pace of future rate cuts remains uncertain. ⑶ Data shows that the market expects a 90% probability of a Bank of England rate cut next week, and another rate cut in 2026. ⑷ The 10-year UK bond yield remained largely unchanged at 4.477%.

16:34:20

A Japanese Ministry of Finance official stated that participants at today's primary dealer meeting expressed a desire to reduce sales of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds.

16:33:13

France's unadjusted CPI reading for November

Previous : 121.02 Forecast : -

Published Value 120.80

16:32:05

France's CPI year-on-year rate excluding tobacco for November - unadjusted final value

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : 0.90%

Published Value 0.90%

16:31:18

Behind the early appointment: Trump's covert battle with the Federal Reserve escalates, posing long-term risks to the dollar. Details>

16:31:17

France's unadjusted CPI reading for November

Previous : 121.02 Forecast : -

Published Value 120.80

16:27:05

The Reserve Bank of India: The government raised a total of 280 billion rupees in bond auctions, in line with its target amount.

16:26:25

The revised monthly rate of Spain's harmonized CPI for November

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0%

Neutral

Published Value 0%

16:25:14

The revised reading of Spain's unadjusted CPI for November

Previous : 119.48 Forecast : -

Published Value 119.53

16:22:43

The revised annual rate of core CPI in Spain for November

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.60%

16:20:15

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 0.51% to 4.169% during the day.

16:16:43

The revised annual rate of Spain's harmonized CPI for November

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : 3.10%

Published Value 3.20%

16:16:25

The revised annual rate of Spain's CPI for November

Previous : 3% Forecast : 3%

Neutral

Published Value 3%

16:16:09

The revised monthly rate of Spain's CPI for November

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

Neutral

Published Value 0.20%

16:11:30

[Hong Kong stocks closed sharply higher, with the financial and technology sectors leading the gains] ⑴ The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.87%. ⑵ The Hong Kong Technology ETF rose 1.42%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect ETF rose 1.67%. ⑶ In terms of sectors, electrical equipment and life science tools were among the top gainers; household goods and air freight and logistics were among the top losers. (4) In terms of individual stocks, China Galaxy Securities rose 9.45%, GF Securities rose 7.33%, Akeso Biopharma rose 7.33%, Nongfu Spring rose 7.23%, NetEase rose 6.87%, Bank of Communications rose 6.57%, CITIC Securities rose 6.42%, Guotai Junan International rose 5.99%, PICC Property & Casualty rose 5.91%, Sun Hung Kai Properties rose 5.79%, BeiGene rose 5.64%, Huatai Securities rose 5.63%, Kelun Biotech rose 5.6%, China Pacific Insurance rose 5.13%, CK Asset Holdings rose 5.05%, China Life Insurance rose 5.0%, CK Infrastructure Holdings rose 4.64%, Aluminum Corporation of China rose 4.58%, Minmetals Resources rose 4.55%, ZTE Corporation rose 4.51%, and ZTO Express rose 4.05%. (5) Among the declining stocks, WuXi AppTec fell 8.36%, and Cao Cao Mobility fell 11.11%; Joinn Laboratories rose 19.41%, and Liontech Holdings rose 14.55%.

16:10:41

The Japanese auto workers' union is seeking to raise the minimum wage by at least 12,000 yen.

16:09:58

Turkish central bank governor: Lowering policy interest rates will only be effective if inflation is under control.

16:08:24

[Swiss lawmakers propose a compromise on UBS's capital rules, pushing its share price to a new high since 2008] ⑴ Swiss lawmakers proposed a compromise on UBS Group's capital rules. ⑵ Subsequently, UBS Group's share price rose 2.7%, reaching its highest level since 2008.

16:04:03

Turkish Central Bank Governor: Household inflation expectations will continue to decline

16:03:53

[Rheinmetall Wins Hundreds of Millions of Euros Air Defense System Order] ⑴ Rheinmetall AG announced it will supply the Tianwei-30 mobile air defense system. ⑵ The order is worth hundreds of millions of euros. ⑶ The first delivery is scheduled for the end of 2028, with final delivery and project completion by the end of 2029.

16:03:38

[Major European stock indices opened higher across the board] ⑴ Germany's DAX index opened up 0.68%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index opened up 0.49%. ⑵ France's CAC 40 index opened up 0.79%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index opened up 0.8%. ⑶ Italy's FTSE MIB index opened up 0.58%.

16:02:53

Turkish Central Bank Governor: Cost Factors' Impact on Inflation Has Weakened

16:02:40

Credit risk metrics for European junk bonds have fallen to their lowest level since 2022.

48

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4338.22	5.61 (0.13%)
XAG	67.126	1.664 (2.54%)
CONC	56.54	0.54 (0.96%)
OILC	60.48	0.76 (1.28%)
USD	98.717	0.277 (0.28%)
EURUSD	1.1707	-0.0014 (-0.12%)
GBPUSD	1.3375	-0.0004 (-0.03%)
USDCNH	7.0341	0.0029 (0.04%)

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