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2025-10-29 Wednesday

2025-11-04

13:00:51

Japan's household consumer confidence index for October

Previous : 35.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 35.80

Previous

13:00:16

Japan's household consumer confidence index for October

Previous : 35.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 35.80

Previous

11:36:55

Oil prices continued their decline on Wednesday, pressured by concerns over potential OPEC+ production increases. 1. Oil prices continued their downward trend after three consecutive days of losses. Although prices were briefly boosted by news of an unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories, investor concerns about Russian sanctions and potential OPEC+ production increases continued to weigh on prices. WTI crude is currently trading at $66.06 per barrel, down about 0.15%; Brent crude is currently trading at $63.73 per barrel, down about 1.9%. 2. According to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories fell by 6.35 million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories fell by 4.36 million barrels. This inventory decline exceeded expectations and briefly fueled the rebound in the previous trading day. 3. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that the unexpected decrease in US inventories supported oil prices in early trading today, but sanctions risks and OPEC+ dynamics are dominating the market. She emphasized that while sanctions and supply issues have become the focus, weak demand and spare capacity still limit upside potential. Oil prices recorded their biggest weekly gain since June last week after Trump imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies for the first time during his second term, but overnight both major benchmark crude futures fell 1.9%. 4. The Kremlin responded that Russia provides high-quality, low-cost energy, and partners can decide for themselves which to purchase. Industry insiders revealed that several Indian refiners have suspended new orders for Russian oil and are turning to the spot market for alternatives, but Indian Oil Corporation stated that it will continue to purchase as long as sanctions are complied with. The German Economy Minister stated that the US has assured that Russian oil operations in Germany will not be affected. 5. Four sources familiar with the matter revealed that OPEC+ is inclined to increase production slightly in December, possibly by 137,000 barrels per day. Analysts pointed out that the Fed's interest rate decision and the meeting between Chinese and American leaders in the second half of the week may boost market sentiment.

11:33:33

A-Share Midday Market Review: Shanghai Composite Index Rebounds Above 4,000 Points, with Many Stocks in the Securities and Nonferrous Metals Sectors Gaining Ground. The three major indices rose collectively in early trading. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.9%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.35%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.29%. Half-day trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 1.4342 trillion yuan, a 74.7 billion yuan increase from the previous day. Over 2,000 stocks rose across the board. In terms of sectoral themes, the Hainan Free Trade Zone, securities, diversified finance, nonferrous metals, quantum technology, batteries, and gaming led the gains, while banks, logistics, cinema chains, liquor, and retail saw the largest declines. Computing hardware stocks mostly opened higher, with Zhongji Innolight, Foxconn Industrial Internet, and New E-Sun reaching record highs. Photovoltaic equipment and energy storage sectors performed actively, with Sungrow Power Supply reaching a new intraday high, while Longi Green Energy, Canadian Solar, and Tongrun Equipment led the gains. The securities and internet finance sectors also performed positively during the session, with Huaan Securities hitting its daily limit, while Ruida Futures, Northeast Securities, and Flush all saw gains. Furthermore, non-ferrous metals, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and quantum technology stocks all saw some movement. Meanwhile, the banking sector saw a volatile decline, with Bank of Chengdu, Xiamen Bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading the decline. Fujian local stocks saw mixed performance, with many adjusting, with XCMG, Xiamen Cinda, and Zhangzhou Development leading the decline.

11:28:40

[US Dollar Hovering at a One-Week Low as Markets Await the Fed's Interest Rate Decision] 1. The US dollar hovered near a one-week low against major currencies on Wednesday, with the market widely expecting the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut later that day. The US dollar index remained steady at 98.75, up about 0.04%, after a slight drop of 0.1% the previous day, hitting a new one-week low of 98.55. Traders are closely watching Fed Chairman Powell's guidance at the press conference, particularly any confirmation of a December rate cut, which could trigger market volatility. 2. The US dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 151.53, extending its two-day decline. It is currently trading around 151.93, having narrowed its losses to 0.1%. US Treasury Secretary Bensoner's social media post hinted that the new Japanese government is open to a central bank rate hike, adding to pressure on the dollar. The Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Thursday, and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the market is watching for clues about a potential December rate hike. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to maintain accommodative policies, but emphasized that policy is determined by the central bank. Bensoner has repeatedly criticized the Bank of Japan for its slow pace of rate hikes. 3. The currency market is also focused on the meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Trump in South Korea on Thursday. The European Central Bank will also announce its policy on Thursday, and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The euro fell slightly against the dollar to 1.1642, a drop of approximately 0.07%.

11:11:59

[USD/CAD Hits One-Month Low Amid Fed and Bank of Canada Decisions] 1. The USD/CAD pair continued to decline in Asian trading on Wednesday, hitting a low of 1.3931, matching the near one-month low reached on October 8, a drop of about 0.1%. This marks the third consecutive day of decline for the pair, primarily driven by a weaker US dollar, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's policy decision that day. 2. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its October meeting, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has fully priced in this rate cut and believes there is a 91% probability of another rate cut in December. Traders are particularly focused on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the future pace of easing. A CNBC October survey indicated that the Fed may cut rates further in the next two meetings. 3. The US dollar received some support from the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Trump on Thursday. If the two sides reach a framework agreement, potentially suspending US tariffs and export controls, this would further boost the dollar. 4. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later on Wednesday. However, the outlook for Canadian interest rates is relatively optimistic, with its policy rate of 2.25% still offering a positive real yield relative to the 2.4% CPI. Analysts expect this rate cut may mark the end of the easing cycle, and the central bank may shift to a neutral or hawkish stance to address moderate inflation and high unemployment.

11:08:01

Changes in Japan's PAJ commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending October 25

Previous : 11.69 Forecast : -

Published Value -37.76

Previous

11:08:00

Changes in PAJ gasoline inventories in Japan for the week ending October 25 -GAS

Previous : 5.70 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.67

Previous

11:07:59

The average operating rate of PAJ refineries in Japan for the week ending October 25

Previous : 86.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 91.20%

Previous

11:07:59

Japan's PAJ kerosene inventory changes for the week ending October 25 -KER

Previous : 2.13 Forecast : -

Published Value -9.17

Previous

10:55:28

[Australian Dollar Climbs to Three-Week High as Higher-than-Expected Inflation Data Reduces Rate Cut Expectations] 1. The Australian dollar rose to a three-week high on Wednesday, gaining as much as 0.35% to 0.6606 against the US dollar, its highest level since October 9. It is currently trading around 0.6597. This followed a surprisingly sharp rise in core inflation, which led the market to almost rule out a rate cut next week and sparked discussions about whether the entire easing cycle has ended. The report showed that overall CPI rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, influenced by factors such as electricity bills and holiday expenses; the core inflation cutoff mean rose 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the expected 0.8%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia had originally expected it to be closer to 0.6%. 2. Year-on-year, the CPI cutoff mean rose to 3.0%, reaching the upper limit of the Reserve Bank's 2%-3% target range, ending the downward trend since the peak of 6.8% at the end of 2022. 3. Marcel Thieliant, Head of Asia Pacific Economics at Capital Economics, pointed out that inflation is far exceeding the Fed's forecast, therefore a rate cut is unlikely in November, and the possibility of further easing is also diminishing. Policymakers have consistently emphasized the upside risks to inflation, particularly construction costs and market services pressures. 4. Earlier this week, RBA Governor Bullock stated that a core inflation rate of 0.9% would be significantly different from forecasts, prompting investors to adjust their expectations. The market reacted sharply, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the November 4th meeting dropping from 40% to 8%, and the probability of a December rate cut falling from 70% to 28%, pushing full pricing in a rate cut until June next year.

10:52:48

Beijing Stock Exchange Chairman Lu Songbin: Strengthening Services for Major Strategies, Key Areas, and Weak Links. On October 29th, at the "Innovation, Cooperation, and Openness - Technological Innovation and Financial Services in the Restructuring of the Global Economy" forum at the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Beijing Stock Exchange Chairman Lu Songbin stated that the Beijing Stock Exchange will strengthen its services for major strategies, key areas, and weak links. First, the Beijing Stock Exchange will better leverage its role in supporting technological innovation. Continue research and optimize the Beijing Stock Exchange's listing standards system, enhance the adaptability and precision of the listing review system, continuously improve the merger and acquisition (M&A) and restructuring system tools, guide financial resources toward key core technology areas, support the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and better serve the development of new-quality productivity. Second, consolidate the regulatory and nurturing function of the National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ). Research will be conducted to deepen the reform of the NEEQ, improve differentiated institutional arrangements, further promote institutional integration between the third and fourth boards, enhance their functionality and attractiveness, and strive to build a full-lifecycle service system for enterprises. Third, enrich the Beijing Stock Exchange's bond market product portfolio. Promote the regular issuance of government bonds, expand the functions of the credit bond market, launch more bond varieties centered on the implementation of national strategies, and promote the implementation of more typical special bonds such as science and technology innovation bonds and green bonds.

10:25:12

Gold prices rebounded on support from bargain hunting as the market awaited the Fed's interest rate decision. 1. Gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday, after falling to a three-week low in the previous session, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later that evening. Spot gold is currently trading around $3965 per ounce, up about 0.3%, having touched a high of around $3886 on Tuesday. 2. The market widely expects the Fed to announce an interest rate cut after its policy meeting, with investors focusing on Fed Chairman Powell's comments on the economic outlook. In addition, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. 3. In the trade arena, the summit between the leaders of the US and China is expected to be held in South Korea on Thursday, with the progress of US-China negotiations becoming a key focus before the meeting. 4. Influenced by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of an interest rate cut, and continued central bank gold purchases, gold prices have risen by about 52% this year, reaching a record high of $4381.29 on October 20. 5. Meanwhile, on the eve of the Fed's highly anticipated interest rate cut, the dollar is hovering near a one-week low against major currencies. 6. Preliminary weekly estimates released Tuesday by the ADP National Employment Report showed that in the four weeks ending October 11, the U.S. private sector added an average of 14,250 jobs per week.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3993.95

-7.21

(-0.18%)

XAG

47.902

-0.157

(-0.33%)

CONC

60.26

-0.79

(-1.29%)

OILC

64.09

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(-1.12%)

USD

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(0.04%)

EURUSD

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GBPUSD

1.3085

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USDCNH

7.1254

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