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2025-09-12 Friday

2025-09-19

22:00:07

The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan's five-year inflation rate forecast for September in the United States

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

Previous

22:00:07

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer expectations for September in the United States

Previous : 55.90 Forecast : 54.90

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 51.80

Previous

22:00:06

The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan's one-year inflation rate forecast for September in the United States

Previous : 4.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.80%

Previous

22:00:04

The preliminary economic situation of the University of Michigan in the United States for September

Previous : 61.70 Forecast : 61.30

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 61.20

Previous

22:00:02

The preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September in the United States

Previous : 58.20 Forecast : 58

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 55.40

Previous

21:55:51

[US Dollar Index Technical Analysis] The 10-minute candlestick chart shows the upper Bollinger Band at 97.8253, the lower Bollinger Band at 97.5865, and the middle Bollinger Band at 97.7059. The latest price is hovering around 97.75, a slight pullback from the previous peak at 97.8560, but still trading at a high level near the upper band. The band is showing signs of convergence after its earlier expansion, suggesting the short-term uptrend is entering a cycle of consolidation, retesting, and re-selecting a new direction. If the price continues to slide below the upper band without a clear breakout above 97.8253, it would be considered a pullback to the middle band after resistance at the upper band, with 97.7059 becoming the primary dynamic support level. If the middle band is broken and the band opens again, 97.5865 and even lower, 97.4719 (the recent low), would form the key support band below. Conversely, if it quickly recovers and stabilizes above 97.8253, accompanied by a long-term bullish trend with large volume, there's a chance it could retest 97.8560, or even trigger a breakout. The MACD indicator shows a DIFF of 0.0292, a DEA of 0.0279, and a MACD-Histogram of 0.0025. The fast and slow lines remain above zero, but the bars are shortening, suggesting a shift in momentum from "strong amplification" to "high-level blunting." The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading is near 55.2838, in neutral to bullish territory and not yet overbought. Combined with the Bollinger Bands pattern, this suggests the trend is intact, but requires a price breakout to generate renewed strength.

21:51:06

[Expectations of a Rate Cut Boost Precious Metals Bulls, Ushering in a Reconstruction in the Gold-Silver Ratio] ⑴ Gold prices climbed 0.4% on Friday to $3,649.54 per ounce, just shy of Tuesday's all-time peak of $3,673.95. This marked the fourth consecutive week of gains, with a weekly gain of 1.8% and a year-to-date surge of 39%. ⑵ Significantly weaker US labor market data completely reversed market expectations. Federal funds futures suggest a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting is fully priced in. The low interest rate environment continues to reduce the cost of holding precious metals. ⑶ Silver prices surged 1.3% to $42.08, a 14-year high. Platinum rose 1.4% to $1,397.61, and palladium surged 2.2% to $1,214.70. All three major rare metals recorded weekly gains, driven by inflation hedging demand and industrial properties. ⑷ UBS analysts have explicitly raised their gold price target for next year to $3,900 by mid-year, emphasizing the dual driving forces of continued ETF inflows and expectations of interest rate cuts. Furthermore, the central bank's policy move to simplify gold import and export rules has further opened up liquidity in the Asian market. ⑸ A key shift in market trading logic has occurred: investors are prioritizing pricing in a weak job market over sticky inflation. This expectation gap has enabled precious metals to break through the traditional interest rate framework and demonstrate stronger asset allocation value in an uncertain environment.

21:36:19

[British Pound Bull-Bear Game: The Choice at the 1.35 Level and the Central Bank's Decision] (1) GBP/USD may find new buying support near $1.3500. This round number, with a massive $1.2 billion in GBP options expiring, could form a key psychological and technical support area. Thursday's low was $1.3495. Although it subsequently rebounded to $1.3583 on the back of US data, market attention has gradually shifted to this key option expiration level. (2) Intraday data showed that the pound hit an intraday low of $1.3525, following a weak report on the UK economy at the end of the first half of the year, further exacerbating market concerns about the pound. Poor economic data could undermine investor confidence and provide momentum for shorting the pound. (3) The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain its key policy rate unchanged on Tuesday (September 18), and may also announce a slowdown in quantitative tightening (QT). Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the central bank's monetary policy direction will be a key factor influencing the pound's short-term performance. Against this backdrop, traders should closely monitor market reactions to option expiration dates. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement four consecutive interest rate cuts of $25 basis points, starting on September 17th. If this prediction materializes, the divergence in monetary policy among major central banks worldwide will have a significant impact on the British pound's exchange rate.

21:33:21

[The Specter of Inflation Resurfaces: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision in Suspicion] ⑴ A Reuters poll of economists shows that most respondents expect the Bank of England to maintain its key policy rate at 4.00% at its September 18th meeting to address rising inflationary pressures. However, market expectations for future rate cuts are subtly shifting, with a growing consensus that the cut cycle for the rest of the year may be over. ⑵ Currently, UK inflation has climbed to nearly double the Bank of England's 2% target, with forecasts suggesting it will reach 4% in September and may not return to target until mid-2027. Although inflation briefly dipped last year, cost-of-living pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term, and the Bank of England Governor recently expressed uncertainty about the pace of rate cuts, complicating policymaking. ⑶ Among the 67 economists surveyed, while a majority (42) predicted a 25 basis point rate cut next quarter, the proportion of respondents who believe rates will remain unchanged for the rest of the year has risen significantly to over 30%, significantly higher than the 15% in August. This shift may indicate a cautious adjustment in market expectations for the Bank of England's easing policy. ⑷ James Rossiter, head of macro strategy at TD Securities, pointed out that the upcoming inflation and labor data will be crucial in determining whether there will be a rate cut in November. If inflation falls slightly and the labor market remains weak, the conditions for a rate cut will be more mature; conversely, any unexpected rise in inflation may change this expectation. ⑸ Analysts pointed out that although the UK has performed well among the G7 countries, this is largely due to government spending and relatively weak private demand. Continued inflation and high interest rates will continue to squeeze household real income and put pressure on private sector demand. Economic growth is expected to slow to a quarter-on-quarter level of 0.2%-0.4% in 2026.

21:32:55

[Geopolitical Storm: Oil Spikes Triggering a Huge Fluctuation in US Treasury Yields] ⑴ International oil prices surged 2.0%, breaking through the 20-day moving average, directly leading to a surge in US Treasury yields and a bearish steepening of the yield curve. This volatility stemmed from the UK and EU escalating sanctions against Russia. Heightened geopolitical tensions triggered risk aversion in the market, with traders scrambling to adjust their positions. In particular, after the reopened 30-year Treasury bond auction, previously profitable steepening trades were liquidated en masse. ⑵ Institutional sources indicate that renowned fund manager Pimco, after achieving an 8.3% return on its $200 billion bond fund, is gradually withdrawing from its previously profitable steepening trades, further exacerbating market volatility. On Wednesday, the UK announced new sanctions against Russia, and the EU also planned to introduce its 19th round of sanctions. This not only pushed up oil prices but also caused a surge in long-term UK gilts (Gilts) and European Government Bonds (EGBs), which quickly spread to the US Treasury market. ⑶ From a trading perspective, market expectations for a 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year remain high, leading the money market to price this in. Despite geopolitical and rising energy price pressures, institutional traders and "fast money" investors have capitalized on the narrowing overnight yield curve and actively established new steepening positions, demonstrating a degree of confidence in the future direction of interest rates. However, this confidence is facing a severe test. ⑷ Data shows a significant upward trend across all maturities of the US Treasury yield curve. For example, the 10-year Treasury yield surged 4.6 basis points to 4.057%, while the 30-year Treasury yield also rose 3.2 basis points to 4.683%. The 5-year Treasury yield saw the most significant increase, reaching 3.8 basis points, indicating increased market sensitivity to short-term interest rate fluctuations.

21:30:06

[European Economic Winds Shift: Huge Surplus Unexpectedly Shrinks] ⑴ Data released by the German Central Bank revealed that Germany's current account surplus narrowed to €1.48 billion in July 2025, down €230 million from the previous month. This decline was primarily due to a strong decline in the intangible current account (including services, primary, and secondary income), which outweighed the increase in the goods trade surplus, reflecting subtle financial shifts in the economy's structure. ⑵ On the goods account, the surplus still widened by €200 million to €1.64 billion in July, as export revenues outpaced import spending. However, the intangible current account turned from a €270 million surplus in June to a €160 million deficit. The services account deficit widened significantly, primarily due to imbalances in telecommunications, computer, and information services, as well as a decrease in net income from intellectual property royalties, highlighting the challenges facing the services trade sector. ⑶ Meanwhile, Germany's net capital outflows fell sharply to €170 million in July, down significantly from €4.87 billion in June. This change reflects a growing appetite among global investors for German assets. Among them, direct investment saw a net capital inflow of 460 million euros, in stark contrast to the net outflow in the previous month. ⑷ In terms of investment portfolios, foreign investors made net purchases of German securities worth 3.53 billion euros, especially 2.63 billion euros of German bonds, showing a preference for bonds of the core economies of the eurozone. At the same time, German domestic investors made net purchases of foreign securities worth 1.08 billion euros. In other investment categories, businesses and households dominated the net capital outflow of 2.58 billion euros.

21:27:37

Futures Under Pressure, But Summer's "Remaining Heat" May Support Prices (1) Although US natural gas futures prices have recently hovered near a two-week low, expectations of warmer weather, which could support summer air conditioning demand in the coming weeks, have partially offset the impact of declining liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Natural gas futures for October delivery have risen slightly, but have fallen approximately 4% this week, marking their first weekly decline in three weeks. (2) In the spot market, natural gas prices in the Waha region of the Permian Basin in West Texas remained low at around 7 cents per million British thermal units for the second consecutive day, reaching their lowest level since late May. Traders believe this reflects pipeline constraints, such as maintenance on Kinder Morgan's Gulf Coast Express pipeline in Texas, which has led to a backlog of natural gas in the Permian Basin. (3) On the supply side, natural gas production in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record high of 108.3 billion cubic feet in August. Record production so far this year has allowed energy companies to pump more natural gas into storage tanks than in previous years. Storage levels are currently about 6% higher than normal for this time of year, and this percentage is expected to continue to rise in the coming weeks. On the demand side, weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain above normal until at least September 27th, which will increase the amount of natural gas burned by power plants to operate air conditioning. While tropical storms could push up prices by disrupting natural gas production along the Gulf Coast, they could also push prices down by shutting down LNG export plants and affecting electricity supply. It is worth noting that approximately 40% of the United States' electricity comes from natural gas-fired power plants. Currently, the average amount of natural gas flowing to eight major US LNG export plants has fallen to 15.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from 15.8 billion cubic feet per day in August and well below the record 16 billion cubic feet per day in April. Among them, Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi plant in Texas and Sabine plant in Louisiana, as well as Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu plant in Louisiana and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas, have all seen a recent decline in supply. In addition, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point plant in Maryland is also scheduled to begin annual maintenance for about a month around September 15, which will further affect LNG exports.

21:20:04

[Eagle Soars! Bank of Canada Rate Cut Signals a Turning Point in Market Sentiment] ⑴ Nearly 80% of economists predict the Bank of Canada will cut its first interest rate this year on September 17th, lowering the key rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. This is highly consistent with market expectations and indicates that market concerns about an economic slowdown have taken hold. ⑵ Canada saw a sharp drop of 65,500 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate rising to a nine-year high. Combined with a 1.6% contraction in economic activity in the previous quarter, these weak data undoubtedly provide strong support for the Bank of Canada's decision to cut interest rates, especially amid market concerns raised by Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑶ Over 70% of economists expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points this year, indicating strong market expectations for future monetary policy easing, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. ⑷ While core inflation data remains sticky, overall inflation has stabilized within the target range of 1% to 3%, providing the Bank of Canada with room to make discretionary decisions as it assesses labor market and economic activity weakness. ⑸ The market is generally paying attention to the Fed's moves. It is expected that it will cut interest rates for the first time this year on September 17. The Bank of Canada's move may lead the trend of easing monetary policy among G10 countries and inject new vitality into the market.

21:19:43

Brokerage Optimism Bursts! S&P 500 Index Target Prices Soar, A Clash Between Economic Resilience and Trading Psychology] ⑴ Despite ongoing concerns stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric, several major brokerages have raised their year-end target prices for the S&P 500, with widespread expectations for continued gains. Deutsche Bank and Barclays have both recently raised their forecasts, demonstrating their optimism about the market outlook. Deutsche Bank's target price has even reached 7,000 points. ⑵ The main factors supporting brokerages' bullish outlook are the resilience of corporate earnings and the stability of the US economy. Most institutions forecast US GDP growth of between 1% and 2% this year, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predicting 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively. This provides a solid foundation for the stock market. Furthermore, recent weak employment and inflation data have fueled widespread market expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut at next week's policy meeting, which is expected to further boost the stock market. ⑶ In terms of trading psychology, brokerages and some companies have differing views on market trends. Businesses are concerned about the potential negative impact of tariffs, while brokerages are more focused on the underlying economic growth drivers. The future direction of the market will largely depend on the effectiveness of companies' strategies in addressing Trump's tariff rhetoric and how investors balance these uncertainties with positive economic signals. (4) It is worth noting that while the market is generally optimistic about the S&P 500 index, forecasts vary among different institutions. For example, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have set a target price of 6,500 points, while Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, reaching 6,600 points. Regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate, most institutions predict it will remain in the 130-155 range. For example, UBS predicts 130, while Morgan Stanley predicts 141 by year-end. For the EUR/USD exchange rate, forecasts range from 1.00 to 1.25, indicating expectations of a relatively strong dollar. (5) Regarding recession risk, most institutions believe the probability of a recession is low. Barclays Bank explicitly stated its "no recession" outlook, while Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo predicted recession probabilities of 30%, 40%, and 35%, respectively. These lower recession expectations have further strengthened market confidence in future economic performance.

21:03:26

[Boeing 737 Emergency Landing: Warning Signs Emerge, Market Confidence Under Pressure] ⑴ Just last Friday, a Boeing 737 carrying 172 passengers and six crew members was forced to make an emergency landing from Tokyo's Narita Airport to Cebu due to signs of a potential fire in the cargo hold. Although the aircraft ultimately landed safely and passengers evacuated via slides, two passengers were taken to a local hospital for minor injuries. Initial maintenance inspections revealed no evidence of fire, but these repeated safety incidents have undoubtedly raised new concerns for the aviation industry. ⑵ Following this, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed issuing a new airworthiness directive to replace existing directives for some Boeing 777 aircraft. This move, coupled with recent 737 incidents, suggests that aircraft manufacturers may face continued scrutiny and challenges regarding product safety and airworthiness. The FAA's intervention signals tightening of aircraft design and operating safety standards, which could have long-term impacts on airline operating costs and efficiency. (3) The frequent occurrence of aviation safety incidents not only tests the judgment and execution capabilities of regulators but also directly challenges market confidence. Although this incident did not result in serious consequences, its potential risks and psychological impact on the travel public cannot be ignored. Investors and airlines will undoubtedly factor the frequency and impact of such incidents into consideration when evaluating future investment and operating strategies, potentially further testing market trust in aircraft manufacturers.

21:02:01

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Refer to the 10-minute candlestick chart of the Brent crude oil continuous contract. From the chart data: 1) Bollinger Bands: Middle Band 67.02, Upper Band 68.01, Lower Band 66.03. The price has risen rapidly from the low of 65.68, with multiple consecutive bullish candlesticks resembling a "three white soldiers" pattern. The price reached a high of 68.14 and briefly crossed the upper band before consolidating at a high level near 67.92, demonstrating the "upper band constraint during bandwidth expansion." A piercing of the upper band—a pullback between the upper and middle bands—signals the short-term entry into the "first retracement candidate after a breakout." If the pullback fails to break through the support band formed by the angle between the upper and middle bands, the probability of trend continuation is higher. 2) MACD indicator: DIFF=0.39, DEA=0.34, MACD column=0.10, the "golden cross diffusion" above the zero axis is still there, the column is positive but the marginal increase is slowing down; the corresponding price has an upper shadow retracement near 68.14, indicating that the short-term momentum may transition from "advancement" to "consolidation". 3) RSI(14): The value is 85.31, which is in the significant overbought area, resonating with the price "breaking the upper track", a typical event-driven overbought. Technically, overbought is not a sell signal, but at the 10-minute level, it is common to see horizontal fluctuations in time for space or price retracement to the moving average/middle track for repair. 4) Key price structure: Support focus is 67.02 (Bollinger middle track) - 66.51 (previous high/structure level) - 66.03 (Bollinger lower track) - 65.68 (low point of the day); resistance is at 68.01 (upper track) - 68.14 (high point of the day). If the price breaks through 68.14 on high volume and stabilizes above the upper band, it will enter the "upper expansion of the rising channel" in the short term. If it falls back below 67.02, be wary of a false breakout and a retest of 66.51/66.03. In summary, the technical outlook is bullish, but the short-term overbought and upper shadow suggest a high probability of "high-level digestion". Whether the price can break through and stabilize at 68.14 for the second time will determine whether this event-driven trend can evolve into a trend upward.

21:01:11

Nigeria's oil production hits a 16-year low. Can it escape this "bleeding" dilemma? ⑴ Data released by the Nigerian Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that as of July, the country's crude oil losses had fallen to 9,600 barrels per day, the lowest level since 2009. ⑵ This figure is a significant decline from the 2021 peak of 102,900 barrels per day, the highest level in more than two decades. ⑶ The NUPRC attributed this significant improvement to close collaboration with security agencies, private contractors, and local communities, as well as the implementation of regulatory reforms such as metering audits. ⑷ As Africa's largest oil producer, Nigeria has long been plagued by oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and aging infrastructure, which have severely eroded government revenue and hindered foreign investment in the sector. ⑸ The 2021 oil legislation, aimed at reshaping the regulatory framework, improving transparency, and attracting capital to upstream and midstream operations, is believed to help strengthen law enforcement and protect infrastructure. ⑹ In July, Nigeria's average daily production was 1.71 million barrels, including 1.507 million barrels of crude oil and 204,864 barrels of condensate. ⑺ In addition, the Nigeria Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund has reached a preliminary agreement with the African Export-Import Bank for $500 million in gas infrastructure investment over the next four years. ⑻ After eliminating popular but costly gasoline subsidies, Nigeria is turning to natural gas as an alternative fuel, a move that has pushed up retail gasoline prices and sparked dissatisfaction among drivers and businesses that rely on gasoline for power generation.

20:51:25

[EU Automakers' Road to Redemption: 2035 Emissions Reduction Targets Threaten Renewed] ⑴ The European Commission plans to bring forward the review of its 2035 new car CO2 emissions targets, originally scheduled for 2026, to the end of this year, sparking significant industry concern. Under the current targets, newly sold cars and trucks must achieve a 100% CO2 reduction by 2035, a move widely interpreted as signaling the end of internal combustion engine vehicles. ⑵ Automotive industry groups generally believe that the current emissions reduction targets are no longer feasible. This is particularly true in the van sector, where electric vans currently account for only 8.5% of new car sales, far lower than the penetration rate of electric vehicles. The European Commission is planning a focused review of emissions reduction requirements for vans. ⑶ While the details of the new proposal remain unclear, market speculation is widespread that the review may include consideration of CO2-neutral fuels, such as biofuels. This means that internal combustion engine vehicles could potentially continue to operate using these alternative fuels or meet emissions standards through plug-in hybrid and range-extender technologies. ⑷ In addition, the European Commission will also propose a new regulation establishing a dedicated regulatory category for small electric vehicles. Such models may be eligible for tax incentives, thereby playing a more active role in promoting overall CO2 emission reduction targets. This adjustment indicates that the future development path of the automotive industry may be more diversified.

20:36:49

[Caixin Futures: Intensifying supply-demand dynamics in the agricultural products sector put pressure on most commodities] ⑴ Palm oil: Bearish. The nationalization of Indonesia's 5.7 million tons of palm oil production capacity is positive, but quantifiable. Malaysian spot prices rose before retreating, and domestic spot prices followed suit to 9260 before finding resistance at 9380-9400 for the 01 contract. The 150 premium has already overdrawn expectations, suggesting a dip to the lower bound of the 9000-9250 range. If Malaysian exports remain weak in September, prices could dip to 8800-9040. ⑵ Soybean meal: Maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Ample soybean supplies are expected in the fourth quarter, but a gap in the first quarter of next year is expected to support premiums for future months. Reserve soybean auctions and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations are dampening short-term sentiment. We must monitor the implementation of policies and auction volumes, as short-term momentum is insufficient. ⑶ Corn: A light position is recommended for short trading. Traders' healthy profits last year are fueling speculation in the new season. Low North Port inventories are supporting a year-on-year increase in Northeast China's opening price. New season spring corn saw a brief period of strength upon arrival before weakening. 4. Pigs: Maintain a light position and short on rallies. Slaughter volumes continued to increase in September, with limited room for weight loss and a slight increase in supply. Declining slaughter volumes at the end and beginning of the month may trigger a short-term rebound, but demand support and National Day stocking efforts will provide limited support, maintaining a bearish outlook in the long term. 5. Eggs: Maintain a bearish outlook. Open interest is higher than during the same period but has recently declined. Long-term contracts are trading at high premiums, making them expensive. Long-term supply continues to increase, but peak season demand has not boosted expectations, leading to weak spot prices.

20:36:20

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector: Mixed Bullish and Bearish Trends Diverge] ⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating at a Low Level, Watch for Geopolitical Risks. OPEC+'s October production increase of 137,000 barrels per day is small and has already been priced in by the market. Countries that have over-cut production will need to compensate by July 2026. Trump's proposed second phase of sanctions against Russia is driving market volatility, with limited downside potential. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating at a Low Level. US sanctions on Russian terminal and storage operators have escalated, and Ukraine attacked Russian oil depots, leading to an unstable Middle East situation. The price differential structure is strong, so an overly bearish outlook is not recommended. ⑶ Glass: Buy on dips. The spot price remains flat at 1,164 yuan/ton. Midstream cargoes lack sustainability, but expectations of restocking demand remain in September and October. Consider buying on dips in the 1,160-1,175 range. ⑷ Soda Ash: Buy on dips. The market is stable and prices are firm. Operating rates are 86.98%, with supply increasing slightly. Strong downstream glass production coupled with stabilizing costs suggests a temporary overly bearish outlook. 5. Caustic soda: Buy on dips. Shandong's liquid caustic soda is stable, but non-aluminum prices are struggling. Anticipated inventory restocking before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and high alumina production support a positive outlook. 6. Methanol: Buy on dips. Taicang spot prices are trading at 2,280 yuan, down 5 yuan month-over-month. High port inventories are balancing expectations for peak season. Against the backdrop of the golden September season, we need to wait for macroeconomic stimulus or supply disruption signals to trigger a rally.

20:35:32

[Caixin Futures: Gold Prices Face Short-Term Fluctuations, Poised for Divergence among Non-ferrous Metals] (1) Gold: Maintain a bullish view. In the short term, rising volatility and profit-taking are suppressing high-level fluctuations. However, weakening US employment, moderate inflation, expanding fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks continue to provide support. Deepening cracks in the global monetary and credit system, coupled with growing expectations of interest rate cuts, have shifted the support range for gold prices down to 823-830 yuan. Silver is more resilient. (2) Alumina: Short-sell on rallies. Fundamentals maintain excess capacity, with weekly operating capacity rebounding, inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase. The opening of the import window exacerbates supply pressures, and the overall weak trend persists. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: Buy on dips. Positive macroeconomic sentiment continues both domestically and internationally. Anticipation of the peak September and October seasons supports initial signs of inventory reduction. Increased pickups from LME warehouses in Asia are raising supply concerns, making aluminum prices more likely to rise than fall. (4) Cast aluminum alloys: Buy on dips. Tight scrap supply and the end of tax rebates for recycled aluminum companies in many regions are providing support. Driven by both macro and fundamental factors, a relatively strong trend is expected. (5) Lithium carbonate: Cautiously wait and see. News was calm and the market fluctuated within a narrow range. Expectations of resumption of production in Xiawo were partially factored into market prices, and the peak season of demand provided downward support. However, the results of the "self-inspection" of Yichun mining companies are still unclear, and uncertainty on the supply side remains.

20:34:39

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Futures Trends Diverge] ⑴ Steel: Maintaining a volatile pattern. Inventory pressure awaits demand easing. Expectations of pre-holiday restocking and a relatively warm macro environment provide support, but capital markets remain cautious. Positions in the top 20 positions of the 01 contract are primarily reduced (with a more significant reduction in short positions). ⑵ Iron Ore: Focus on 1-5 positive arbitrage opportunities. Global shipping disruptions coupled with high molten iron levels have led to slight fluctuations in port inventories. Expectations of pre-holiday restocking support short-term prices, but medium-term pressure remains from increased shipments of major mines and expectations of a decline in molten iron prices. ⑶ Coking Coal: Fluctuating at a high level. The second round of spot price increases and reductions has begun, and market sentiment may improve after three rounds of price increases and reductions. Supported by pre-holiday restocking expectations, spot price reductions are limited, and capital markets are reducing both long and short positions in the 01 contract (with a greater reduction in short positions). ⑷ Coke: A short-selling strategy is in place. Falling costs are improving coking profits, with downstream procurement primarily based on demand. Spot price increases and reductions are still being implemented, so be wary of a surge in bullish sentiment after the second round of price increases and reductions. ⑸ Manganese silicon: Fluctuating at a low level. The weak stability of manganese ore and the decline in coke prices have led to a downward shift in cost support. Manufacturers have resumed production and increased inventory. Against the backdrop of weakening supply and demand, the market is insufficiently driven by its own strength and mainly follows the fluctuations of raw materials.

20:31:31

Canada's monthly building permit rate for July

Previous : -9% Forecast : 4%

Published Value -0.10%

Previous

20:30:39

Capacity utilization rate in Canada in the second quarter

Previous : 80.10% Forecast : 78.80%

Published Value 79.30%

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

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8.61

(0.24%)

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0.400

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-0.22

(-0.35%)

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-0.19

(-0.28%)

USD

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0.064

(0.07%)

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-0.0012

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-0.0025

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