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2026-09-15 Tuesday

2026-09-22

20:52:38

[Brazilian Crop Monthly Forecast: Corn and Soybeans Both Increase Year-on-Year] ⑴ Brazil's National Supply Company (NSC), under the Ministry of Agriculture, forecasts in September that Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 144.01 million tons, an increase of approximately 2.85 million tons (2.0%) year-on-year and approximately 1.06 million tons (0.7%) month-on-month. ⑵ Of this, the second-crop corn production is expected to reach 112.13 million tons, a decrease of approximately 1.1 million tons (1.0%) year-on-year and an increase of approximately 1.1 million tons (1.0%) month-on-month. ⑶ The corn yield is expected to be 6.37 tons per hectare, a decrease of approximately 92 kg (1.4%) year-on-year and an increase of approximately 46 kg (0.7%) month-on-month. ⑷ The second-crop corn yield is expected to be 6.29 tons per hectare, a decrease of approximately 205 kg (3.2%) year-on-year and an increase of approximately 60 kg (1.0%) month-on-month. (5) Regarding soybeans, the 2025/26 production is projected to reach 180.41 million tons, an increase of approximately 8.93 million tons, or 5.2%, year-on-year. (6) The soybean planting area is projected to be 48.61 million hectares, an increase of approximately 1.26 million hectares, or 2.7%, year-on-year. (7) The soybean yield is projected to be 3.71 tons per hectare, an increase of approximately 90 kg, or 2.5%, year-on-year. (8) Overall, total corn production has been slightly revised upwards month-on-month, but the second crop is still down year-on-year, while soybeans show a pattern of simultaneous expansion in both planting area and yield, indicating a generally ample supply expectation in South America.

20:50:16

[Global Bond Yields Rise to Highest Levels Since 2008] ⑴ Global government borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds exceeding 5%. ⑵ The average yield on 10-year G7 government bonds reached 4.285%, the highest since mid-2008, a full percentage point higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. ⑶ The escalating conflict has pushed oil prices back above $100 per barrel, increasing pressure on central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation, a significant reason for the rise in bond yields. ⑷ The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates on Friday, and the European Central Bank raised rates last week and may continue to do so in the coming months. ⑸ Bond sell-offs have increased the cost of new government debt issuance, also increasing interest payments and crowding out funds for social and defense projects, raising questions about the sustainability of the debt burden. ⑹ Some economists point out that if economic growth exceeds the yield, a 5% yield is not a problem, but the situation is different when growth and yield are comparable. (7) The US 10-year Treasury yield, as a global asset pricing benchmark, exceeding 5% puts widespread pressure on sovereign and corporate borrowers. (8) Another problem facing investors is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's aversion to forward guidance, leading to increased uncertainty and volatility. (9) Some market participants point out that central banks have entered a new phase lacking forward guidance and can only rely on building credibility and trust, but the bond market performance shows that this approach is not currently effective. (10) Factors such as artificial intelligence capital expenditure, fiscal anxiety, and the US debt reaching $40 trillion have further exacerbated the complex situation. (11) The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds broke through 3%, reaching a 30-year high; the benchmark yield on German 10-year bonds approached 3.55%, the highest since 2009; the yield on French 10-year bonds hovered near an 18-year high; and the yield on British 10-year bonds reached 5.45%, the highest since 2007. 12 Some strategists believe that fiscal policy and debt sustainability are crucial to the bond market, but the current rise in US yields does not yet signal an increase in sovereign credit risk; inflation is the fundamental reason for the bond weakness.

20:38:49

Canada's July wholesale sales year-on-year rate

Previous : 9 Forecast : -

Published Value 7.90

Previous

20:34:24

Canada's July wholesale inventories year-on-year rate

Previous : 6.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30

Previous

20:32:33

Canadian wholesale inventories month-on-month rate in July

Previous : 1.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.60

Previous

20:32:04

U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Prices Index

Previous : 22.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 28.10

Previous

20:31:42

US New York Fed Manufacturing New Orders Index for September

Previous : 17.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 2

Previous

20:31:31

US September New York Fed Manufacturing Employment Index

Previous : 9.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 10.60

Previous

20:31:25

U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Prices Paid Index

Previous : 58.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 63.10

Previous

20:31:19

US September New York Fed Manufacturing Expectations Index for the Next 6 Months

Previous : 32.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 29

Previous

20:30:00

US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index

Previous : 20.60 Forecast : 15

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 7.60

Previous

20:21:54

[US Employment High-Frequency Indicator: Four-Week Moving Average Rises for the Second Consecutive Week] ⑴ The weekly update of the National Employment Report, released by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, shows that in the four weeks ending August 29, US private employers added an average of approximately 16,300 jobs per week. ⑵ This four-week moving average has rebounded significantly from the previous week's approximately 12,300, marking the second consecutive week of improvement. ⑶ Looking at a longer time series, the average for the week ending August 15 was approximately 10,000, for the week ending August 8 it was approximately 11,800, for the week ending August 1 it was approximately 9,500, and for the week ending July 25 it was approximately 8,300, indicating that hiring momentum weakened in the middle of summer. ⑷ Data around mid-July was relatively higher, with approximately 14,500 for the week ending July 11, approximately 16,300 for the week ending July 4, and readings from late June to mid-June falling into a higher range of approximately 19,800 to 24,300. (5) This indicator measures the week-on-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. The data is seasonally adjusted and has a lag of approximately two weeks to improve the completeness and accuracy of real-time employment trend estimates. (6) It should be noted that the above figures are preliminary estimates and may be revised as new data is added. (7) This weekly update is usually released every Tuesday at 8:15 PM Beijing time, and includes 12 weeks of historical data, but is suspended in the week when the Automatic Data Processing Research Institute releases its monthly national employment report. (8) The next weekly update is scheduled for release on September 22. (9) From a market perspective, the four-week moving average has been rising continuously from its low point, indicating that private sector hiring has stabilized somewhat, but the overall level is still lower than in early summer. It is necessary to monitor whether this trend can continue and the degree of deviation between it and official non-farm payroll data.

20:15:45

US ADP Employment Change (in thousands) for the week ending August 29

Previous : 1.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.63

Previous

20:02:21

[Russian Central Bank's Budget Forecasts Are Conservative] ⑴ The Central Bank of Russia has adopted a fairly conservative stance in assessing the parameters of the federal budget for the next three years, with a low probability of exceeding its basic structural deficit forecast. ⑵ The head of the Central Bank's monetary policy department stated that from the perspective of parameterizing the budget forecasts for the next three years, the current approach is quite cautious, and the probability of actually exceeding these parameters is lower than estimated at the beginning of the year. ⑶ The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia previously stated that the central bank assumes a basic structural deficit of 2% of GDP in the federal budget for 2026, 1% in 2027, and 0.5% in 2028. ⑷ The central bank has formulated its own assessment of the possible basic structural deficit in the Russian budget, considering that actual spending has exceeded the Ministry of Finance's initial forecast, but adjustments will be made after the government submits updated macroeconomic forecasts and budget parameters. ⑸ The Governor stated that a zero deficit was previously included in the basic budget parameters, but the Ministry of Finance has indicated that this level may be maintained until 2028, therefore the central bank cannot take a zero balance into consideration, and has now presented its own assessment of the possible trajectory of budget balance. (6) The Russian Finance Minister previously stated that the draft federal budget for the next three years should envision achieving zero structural deficits by 2029.

20:00:00

Brazil's July retail sales year-on-year growth rate

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.15%

Published Value 1.20%

Previous

20:00:00

Brazil's July retail sales month-on-month rate

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -0.20%

Published Value -0.80%

Previous

19:57:14

[Saudi Pipeline Damage May Persist, Supply Shortage May Continue] ⑴ Following a drone attack, a key Saudi oil pipeline is expected to be shut down for several weeks, with two regional officials stating that repairs could take 3 to 5 weeks. ⑵ The pipeline, spanning the entire territory of Saudi Arabia and approximately 1,200 kilometers long, transports crude oil from Gulf ports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu for export. ⑶ Following the attack, Saudi Arabia pointed the finger at Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, and the pipeline and a major pumping station were damaged. ⑷ Officials stated that the pipeline might be partially operational during repairs, but the actual oil throughput could not be determined. ⑸ Analysts believe that the 3-5 week assessment is based on the assumption of no further attacks, a premise that is overly optimistic. ⑹ If the attackers possess the capability to strike again, the route may be shut down indefinitely until some agreement is reached by the relevant parties. ⑺ The Houthi rebels in Yemen have seized the Greater and Lesser Hanish Islands, located approximately 160 kilometers north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further expanding the threat to Red Sea shipping routes. (8) The Houthi rebels also claimed to have launched dozens of missiles and drones at the King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, southern Saudi Arabia. (9) Global commercial fuel inventories have been declining for more than six months, and the available space in strategic oil reserves is limited. Analysts estimate that the pipeline shutdown has reduced global market supply by at least 2.5 million barrels per day. (10) Chevron's CEO stated that most of the mechanisms previously used to mitigate price and supply risks have been exhausted, and there is little buffer left in the system. (11) The US Secretary of the Interior stated that the current price volatility is temporary and that prices were already at high levels. (12) Some energy investors pointed out that the negotiating advantage usually belongs to the party with time and patience; Iran is willing to endure pain, and its people have suffered for decades.

19:55:34

[US Treasury Outlook: Will the Stock-Bond Correlation Return?] ⑴ Ahead of major central bank meetings, medium-term government bonds led yields to multi-decade highs, potentially further complicating the situation. ⑵ A sell-off in the bond market, led by Japanese government bonds, resumed, pushing Japanese government bond yields to multi-decade highs, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to its highest level since 2007. ⑶ The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, with the market expecting both to raise rates by 25 basis points. ⑷ Japan's ruling party and prime minister finalized a consumption tax cut and household subsidy outline without specifying the source of funding; the finance minister stated that funds would be raised by reviewing expenditures and income. ⑸ Japanese government bonds did not respond favorably, with 20-year and 30-year yields rising by 7 and 8.5 basis points respectively, and the 10-year yield briefly touching a 30-year high of 3.035%. ⑹ The yen weakened 0.3% against the dollar to 154.81. (7) The US Treasury Secretary announced an increase in repurchases of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds for the remainder of the quarter, and news also emerged that the UK would stop selling long-term bonds. Europe faces financing difficulties for defense and infrastructure spending. (8) The Norwegian central bank had previously announced a reduction in its bond allocation from 70% to 50%, prompting long-term bond investors to reconsider. (9) Bonds traditionally function as a risk diversification tool due to their negative correlation with stocks, but recent high yields have impacted growth stocks, and the simultaneous decline in both stocks and bonds has worsened portfolio performance. (10) If recent performance is not only related to inflation but also involves concerns about debt sustainability, the correlation between stocks and bonds may converge. However, if high interest rates trigger a recession and force central banks to cut rates, the certainty of this scenario will decrease. (11) Questioning the role of bonds as a risk diversification tool is reasonable, while inflation-protected bonds, short-duration bonds, and other assets should also be considered. 12 On that day, the long-term yield of US Treasury bonds rose by 2 to 5 basis points, while the 10-year yield fluctuated between 4.98% and 5.04%. Tactically, the preference is to buy duration when the 10-year yield reaches 5% or above.

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