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2026-07-13 Monday

2026-07-19

21:54:11

[Bank of England Deeply Divided by Wait-and-See Stance; Bailey's Speech Lacks Hawkishness; Data Remains the Sole Anchor for Interest Rate Repricing] ⑴ Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak at the City of London's annual dinner on Tuesday. Against the backdrop of rising market expectations for interest rate hikes, his wording will be a key window into whether the balance within the Monetary Policy Committee has shifted. ⑵ Current market pricing indicates that the market has fully priced in one rate hike this year, with a probability of a second hike of approximately 28%. Overnight index swaps reflect a tightening of approximately 37 basis points before the end of the year. ⑶ The Monetary Policy Committee's stance is increasingly divided. The June meeting saw a 7-2 vote to keep interest rates unchanged, with two members advocating a 25 basis point hike to 4.00%, but the committee as a whole remains anchored in a wait-and-see mode. ⑷ Bailey has repeatedly emphasized that the slowdown in economic growth and the cooling of the labor market provide a basis for maintaining the current policy. His core logic is to prevent rising energy costs from evolving into a second round of inflationary effects on wages and corporate pricing, rather than rashly following short-term price fluctuations. (5) In his past statements, Bailey has consistently prioritized "patient observation" over action, clearly indicating that interest rate cuts are not yet back on the agenda, but also failing to release a strong signal of urgency for rate hikes. His stance is essentially one of waiting for further guidance from data. (6) Institutional analysis points out that escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices will once again make inflationary pressures a focus of the Monetary Policy Committee. However, Bailey's speech is more likely to continue the weighing of economic weakness and inflation risks rather than signaling a clear policy shift. (7) The real driving force behind the subsequent interest rate path still comes from actual data: whether the CPI returns to above 3%, whether wage growth continues to outpace productivity growth, the extent of energy price transmission, and the speed of cooling in the job market. These four indicators will jointly determine whether an interest rate hike will actually materialize this year.

21:48:10

[DP World Bets on East Coast Amid Hormuz Pandemic; Jebel Ali Dependence Urgently Needs a Break] ⑴ Facing escalating geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz, DP World is planning to develop a new multipurpose port in Fujairah on the UAE's east coast and add new terminals to the existing port. This move aims to reduce over-reliance on its flagship hub, Jebel Ali Port, and bypass potential blockades of the strait. ⑵ Jebel Ali Port has long been a core pillar of Dubai's status as a global trade and financial center. This strategic shift is occurring against a highly unusual backdrop—Iran recently issued a clear warning that it will resolutely oppose any unauthorized passage through the strait, and regional shipping is already under significant pressure due to military conflict. ⑶ Industry dynamics confirm this urgency. MSC, the world's largest container shipping company, has significantly reduced its calls at Jebel Ali Port due to security risks, instead establishing sea-land intermodal corridors through alternative hubs such as Jeddah Port in Saudi Arabia to circumvent the strait. (4) DP World has implemented multiple contingency measures, including transshipping imported containers through the ports of Fujairah and Hal Fekah on the east coast, and then transporting them via bonded warehouses to Jebel Ali for customs clearance. The railway terminal, officially operational in March 2026, provides crucial support for this multimodal transport network. (5) The UAE government has clearly stated its commitment to the "Zero Dependence on Hormuz" plan, aiming to put a second crude oil pipeline to Fujairah into operation by 2027. DP World's new port construction project is an extension and implementation of this national strategy. (6) If this new port project is ultimately implemented, it will signify a fundamental reshaping of the Middle East's core trade hub structure, with geopolitical uncertainty evolving from a short-term shock into a catalyst for long-term structural adjustments.

21:30:14

[Germany's Current Account Surplus Hits One-Year Low as Widening Service and Secondary Income Gap Offsets Goods Trade Resilience] ⑴ Germany's current account surplus narrowed to €10.4 billion in May, the lowest level in nearly a year. While still higher than the €5.9 billion in the same period last year, the narrowing trend has drawn market attention for several consecutive months. ⑵ The goods trade surplus remained largely stable at €15.4 billion, a slight decrease from €15.8 billion in the previous month. Exports rose 0.6% month-on-month to €112.9 billion, while imports increased 1.1% to €97.5 billion. The simultaneous expansion of imports and exports indicates a recovery in both domestic and external demand. ⑶ The core pressure on the narrowing surplus came from services trade. The services deficit widened from €5.9 billion to €7.2 billion, while the secondary income gap also increased from €1.6 billion to €3.5 billion. Together, these factors dragged down the surplus by approximately €3.2 billion compared to the previous month. ⑷ Positive changes emerged in the structure. Primary income turned from a deficit of €2.3 billion in the same period last year to a surplus of €5.7 billion, reflecting improved returns on German overseas investments, which to some extent buffered the impact of the widening service and secondary income gaps. (5) Cumulatively, Germany's current account surplus for the first five months of 2026 is €88.7 billion, a slight decrease from €90 billion in the same period last year. If the service deficit continues to widen, the full-year surplus may be further compressed. (6) The narrowing trend of the current account surplus has a neutral impact on the euro exchange rate. The market is more concerned about the changes in Germany's external balance as a core economy in the Eurozone. If import growth continues to exceed export growth, it may alleviate, to some extent, the internal Eurozone pressure regarding Germany's long-term trade surplus.

21:28:13

[Cocoa Futures Fall Over 10% from Highs; Ample West African Supply in the Short Term Cannot Mask Concerns About Reduced Production in the New Season] ⑴ Cocoa futures have been falling continuously since reaching an eight-month high of $6,455/ton on July 9th, currently trading around $5,700/ton. Profit-taking and long position liquidation are the main drivers, as short-term supply data releases ample signals. ⑵ Institutional data shows that from October 1, 2025 to July 5, 2026, farmers in Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, shipped 2.07 million tons to ports, a significant increase of 21% year-on-year. Meanwhile, exchange-monitored cocoa stocks rose to a near two-year high of 3.15 million bags, significantly easing short-term supply pressure. ⑶ However, market concerns about the new season's supply have not dissipated. Affected by excessive rainfall related to El Niño and poor planting management, the 2026/27 main season harvest in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to decline by more than 10%, providing a floor for prices in the medium to long term. (4) Local growers reported that torrential rains in late June flooded some plantations, resulting in persistently high soil moisture. More sunshine is urgently needed to control disease risks and ensure the normal growth of the main crop from September to February of the following year. (5) The flowering period will continue until September, and the final harvest size depends on the proportion of flowers that successfully form pods. Climate conditions during this crucial growth stage will be a key focus for the market in the coming months, and any adverse weather could reignite speculation about supply shortages. (6) The interplay between ample short-term inventory and medium-term production reduction expectations will continue to dominate cocoa price movements. If prices decline further around $5700/ton, the potential upward momentum of the new season's fundamentals should be closely monitored.

21:28:11

[OPEC Monthly Report Reveals New Landscape in Production Game: UAE Surges, Saudi Arabia Cuts, Hormuz Clouds Supply Outlook] ⑴ The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that the UAE's crude oil production surged by 1.707 million barrels per day to 3.818 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since April 2020. This surge follows the country's decision to withdraw from OPEC at the end of April. ⑵ The UAE's production jump is mainly attributed to the relaxation of navigation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz during the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran. The country expanded its export capacity by increasing the use of its own tanker fleet and leasing additional vessels, including those operated by South Korea's Sinokor Group. Some cargoes were even kept untraceable to avoid scrutiny. ⑶ A significant divergence has emerged in the regional supply landscape. Kuwait's production rose to 1.394 million barrels per day in June, Iraq's production remained at 2.09 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia significantly reduced production by 373,000 barrels per day to 6.637 million barrels per day, reflecting the strategic differences among former core OPEC members in the competition for market share. (4) However, renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz has cast a shadow over the previously restored regional supply prospects. Weekend clashes between the US and Iran, along with Iran's latest hardline stance, have already pushed oil prices up by about 4%, reigniting market concerns about disruptions to global energy transport routes. (5) The UAE's export sustainability at high production levels faces severe challenges. If navigation safety in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed, even with sufficient production capacity, transportation bottlenecks will constrain actual supply, making it difficult for the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices to subside in the short term. (6) This week, the market will closely monitor the actual navigation situation in the Strait and key events such as the US CPI and the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony. With geopolitical uncertainties on the supply side and policy expectations on the demand side intertwined, volatility in crude oil and related assets is expected to remain high.

21:28:10

[Dollar Index Stabilizes Awaiting Breakout; Three Major Events Could Cause Volatility] ⑴ The dollar index held steady at 100.9 on Monday, remaining near this level throughout July. Investors continue to weigh the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East against the outlook for US monetary policy, resulting in a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces. ⑵ Uncertainty surrounding the renewed military clashes between the US and Iran and the status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices. Tensions in the energy market have provided some safe-haven support for the dollar, but upside potential is limited by the market's cautious anticipation of key events this week. ⑶ This week is packed with important events. The US CPI and PPI reports will provide the latest clues to inflation trends, while Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's testimony to Congress may release key signals about the policy path. The combination of these three factors could break the current low volatility of the dollar. ⑷ Interest rate market pricing indicates that traders currently expect the Fed to raise rates at least once this year, with the probability of a September rate hike hovering around 71%. This expectation has been partially priced in by the market, but if inflation data exceeds expectations or Warsh's statements are hawkish, the probability of a rate hike will further increase, boosting the dollar. (5) The US dollar weakened slightly against the euro but strengthened against the yen. The yen's pressure stemmed from market expectations that the Japanese government pension fund's asset allocation would not be adjusted in the short term. This news eased previous market concerns about a large-scale return of Japanese capital to Japan, pushing the dollar higher against the yen. (6) The current narrow sideways movement of the dollar index is unlikely to continue. The actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, CPI readings, and Warsh's rhetoric will jointly determine the next direction. If geopolitical risks do not escalate significantly and inflation falls moderately, the dollar may face downward pressure; conversely, if inflation remains stubborn and hawkish testimony prevails, the dollar index is expected to break through the consolidation range since July.

21:26:10

[Iran draws a red line in the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk premium soars, US Treasury bonds and oil prices unlikely to cool down in the short term] ⑴ Iran's Supreme Joint Military Command issued a strong warning, clearly stating that it will not allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to pass through the strait without Iranian authorization will be met with strong resistance. This is the highest-level military statement from Iran since the weekend's clashes between the US and Iran. ⑵ Iran further warned regional countries that any cooperation with the United States will be considered an act of war against Iran, and pointed out that if the war escalates, it will affect all countries in the region, placing the responsibility on the United States and its allies. This comprehensive warning significantly increases the probability of an escalation of military conflict in the Middle East. ⑶ Iran also emphasized that it will resolutely respond to the US military's interference with the safety of commercial ships and oil tankers outside of Iran's designated shipping lanes without the permission of the armed forces. This means that the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil transport chokepoint, is facing a direct threat to its navigation safety. (4) Crude oil prices had already risen by about 4% in a single day due to the weekend's US-Iran clashes. Iran's official statement was extremely strong, elevating its control over the Strait of Hormuz to a national security red line. The geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to subside early this week, and energy prices face further upward pressure. (5) US Treasury yields continued their upward trend during Monday's Asian trading session, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.585% and the 2-year yield to 4.231%. Iran's statement will further strengthen inflation concerns. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, risk aversion will continue to dominate asset price movements before Wednesday's CPI data release. (6) Market participants need to closely monitor actual navigation activity in the Strait of Hormuz. After Iran drew a clear red line, any friction involving US ships or commercial oil tankers in the region could become a sharp trigger for short-term price movements. Coupled with this week's Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional hearings and the release of inflation data, asset volatility will remain high due to the confluence of multiple risk events.

21:20:11

[US Treasury Yields Surge Near Key Resistance; Inflation Data and Congressional Hearings Set the Tone for Interest Rate Path] ⑴ Geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated again, with weekend clashes between the US and Iran pushing oil prices up by about 4% in a single day. Renewed concerns about energy supply fueled inflation worries, leading to a broad rise in US Treasury yields. ⑵ The yield on the two-year US Treasury note, most sensitive to policy, rose to 4.231%, briefly touching 4.24%, a new high in over 16 months since February 2025, further increasing from 4.208% last Friday. ⑶ The yield on the ten-year US Treasury note also rose to 4.585%, reflecting the market's repricing of the upward shift in the medium- to long-term interest rate center. The interest rate swap market has already moved forward to October as the earliest possible time for the Fed to raise interest rates, compared to the expectation of December a week ago. ⑷ This week, the market faces its most crucial test of the year. US June CPI data will be released on Tuesday, and PPI on Wednesday. The market expects overall inflation to slow slightly year-on-year, but core indicators will remain significantly above the 2% target. The data will directly influence the judgment on the subsequent pace of interest rate hikes. (5) Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will testify before the House of Representatives on Tuesday and the Senate on Wednesday, marking his first congressional monetary policy statement since taking office. His definition of the current economic situation and assessment of geopolitical risks will be key factors in the market's interpretation of the policy path. (6) The current 4.6% yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is approaching a technical breakout level. If inflation data exceeds expectations and geopolitical premiums persist, further increases in yields will put contractionary pressure on risk assets and the real economy. This week's CPI reading and Warsh's testimony will jointly determine the short-term direction of interest rates.

21:14:10

[Mortgage Rates See Largest Drop in Nearly Two Years Amidst Lingering Geopolitical Anxiety, Market Speculates on Inflation and Policy Turning Point] ⑴ The UK mortgage market has reached a crucial turning point, with fixed-rate mortgages declining at their fastest pace since October 2024, providing a brief respite for borrowers suffering from interest rate shocks. ⑵ Institutional data shows that as of June, the average interest rate for two-year fixed-rate mortgages had fallen from a high of 5.9% in early April to 5.52%, with five-year products also dropping to the same level. Monthly declines of 0.16% and 0.11% respectively represent the largest monthly drop in nearly two years. ⑶ Market product availability has also rebounded, with the number of available mortgage options increasing compared to May, but still more than 300 fewer than in March, highlighting that the market has not fully returned to normal. The average product retention time in the market is only 14 days, reflecting institutions' rapid reassessment of the inflation and borrowing cost outlook. (4) The term structure of interest rates has returned to normal. The inverted yield curve—where the two-year fixed-rate was higher than the five-year rate—caused by geopolitical conflicts pushing up short-term financing costs, has begun to reverse. The latest quotes show the two rates at 5.46% and 5.48% respectively, marking a return to the traditional pricing model. (5) However, the downward trend faces a double threat. Industry experts warn that a renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could slow the pace of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, uncertainties surrounding housing policy due to the appointment of the new British Prime Minister and next week's inflation data may make lending institutions more cautious before the central bank's interest rate decision at the end of the month. (6) Market participants need to be aware that the sharp interest rate fluctuations in 2026 are a typical example of geopolitical shocks transmitting to retail financial products. For borrowers facing refinancing, the current window of opportunity is invaluable; locking in interest rates sooner rather than later is advisable, as any external shock could instantly reverse the current downward trajectory.

21:02:12

Russia's foreign trade in May (in US dollars)

Previous : 114.31 Forecast : -

Published Value 141.54

Previous

20:58:17

Germany's unadjusted current account balance for May (in billions of euros)

Previous : 138 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.68

Previous

20:40:15

[Caixin Futures: Edible Oils Rise and Fall, Overall Under Pressure; Soybean and Palm Oil Weak, Rapeseed Oil Relatively Resilient] ⑴ Edible Oils: The three major domestic edible oils have recently risen and fallen, with the market returning to rationality. The energy attributes of edible oils continue to cool, and the market has moved away from being driven by market sentiment and back to supply and demand fundamentals. Overall, the upward momentum has weakened significantly. On the international market, Friday's USDA report was generally bearish, confirming that the US soybean yield remained at a high of 5.3 kilometres, and that planting area and production were revised upwards. Although export expectations are positive, the positive impact is limited, and there is no extreme weather disturbance in the producing areas. Previously, the rise in US soybeans was only based on purchase rumors and the replenishment of funds brought about by the weakening dollar, without fundamental support. After the positive factors faded, soybean oil and soybean meal lost their upward momentum. The fundamentals of palm oil remain loose, with the Malaysian producing areas in a cycle of increased production and inventory, and the market continues its weak trend. Rapeseed oil has shown relative resilience. Last week, Canadian rapeseed futures surged by more than 5%. Excessive rainfall in the Canadian prairie and a heat wave in the EU have disrupted rapeseed growth, leading to expectations of reduced production, which provides strong support for domestic rapeseed oil. Spot prices showed mixed performance: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell 30 yuan to 9130 yuan/ton, soybean oil rose slightly by 10 yuan to 8810 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil fell 20 yuan to 10340 yuan/ton. Overall, the edible oil sector showed mixed performance and was under pressure. The fundamentals of soybean oil and palm oil were bearish, and they were likely to fluctuate weakly in the short term; rapeseed oil remained relatively strong due to favorable overseas weather. (2) Soybean Meal: Improved expectations for US soybean exports coupled with unfavorable weather in producing areas led to higher US soybean prices and increased import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures followed suit, but the spot market was still in the process of accumulating inventory, with relatively high supply pressure. Downstream demand was flat, and the enthusiasm for building inventory was not high. The supply-demand imbalance remained unchanged, and the spot basis remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase the high prices. (3) Corn: The fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are selling according to market conditions. The new season wheat and imported grains are increasing overall supply pressure. Downstream users mostly maintain a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Under the background of strong supply and weak demand, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. The main strategy is to sell on rallies. (4) Hogs: Recently, the second breeding season has cooled down, spot prices have weakened, and the futures market has corrected to confirm the previous logic. The main strategy is to sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, breeding profits may see some recovery, but the space is limited. In terms of month-on-month, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year will decrease month-on-month, but the magnitude will be limited. Coupled with the peak consumption season in the second half of the year and policy guidance to reduce production, breeding profits may see a phased recovery. (5) Eggs: Recently, the overall trend has remained strong. Hot weather has reduced the egg production rate, and farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. The peak demand season is from July to September, and terminal sales are smooth. Demand may further increase after entering mid-to-late July. Under the background of weak supply and strong demand, inventory has decreased, and egg prices may still remain strong. It is recommended to buy on dips.

20:40:12

[Caixin Futures: Geopolitical Risks Reignite, But Pricing Restrained; Crude Oil and Fuel Oil Fluctuate, Asphalt Bearish] ⑴ Crude Oil: The US response to Iran's attack on merchant ships has brought geopolitical risks back into the market. However, pricing in the face of a significant escalation of the situation remains relatively restrained. Brent crude oil retreated after hitting the $80/barrel resistance level, indicating continued pressure. Basis for some chemical products is high, and downstream restocking is expected. Crude oil and domestic chemical products are expected to fluctuate in the short term; chasing highs is not recommended. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Renewed geopolitical tensions have driven a rebound, but considering the market's relatively restrained pricing in the face of a significant escalation, it is recommended that long positions be reduced appropriately, maintaining a high-level fluctuation strategy in the short term. ⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4315 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. Increased supply pressure expectations, coupled with weak downstream purchasing, have resulted in only sporadic transactions driven by immediate needs. Crude oil rebounded, but industry confidence has not fully recovered, and weak supply and demand are limiting upward potential. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries will increase by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3%. As of July 13, the inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 749,000 tons, an increase of 0.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year; the inventory of 104 social inventories was 990,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 45.7% year-on-year. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation. Inventory is low, but expectations of supply recovery are taking hold, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. (4) Glass: Transactions in the North China market were generally average, with prices mostly stable. The transaction center of some small plates shifted slightly downward, and market trading was weak. Last week, float glass inventory was 76 million weight boxes, a decrease of 59,000 weight boxes (-0.08%) week-on-week and an increase of 13.26% year-on-year. Glass technology upgrades will raise industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressure remains, and the market is expected to fluctuate at low levels. (5) Soda Ash: The market trend was average, with prices hovering at the bottom and limited drivers. Some enterprises experienced plant maintenance and fluctuations, resulting in a downward trend in output, with a daily output of approximately 105,000 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 77.78%. On Monday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7501 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (+0.18%) compared to last Thursday; total social inventory remained around 490,000 tons. Futures and spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-20, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-40, Shandong plant delivery 09+10. The medium-term outlook remains high supply and weak demand, and low-level fluctuations are expected. ⑹ Methanol: Today's Taicang spot price was 2647 yuan/ton, +27 yuan; Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2155 yuan/ton, -27.5 yuan. US-Iran relations have tightened again, with the US stating that military strike options remain available, and Iran announcing the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market expectations. Geopolitical risks have escalated again, but the market reaction has been relatively restrained. Methanol is expected to fluctuate, and short positions can be taken when the price rises.

20:38:13

[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous Metals Sector Fluctuates, Precious Metals Weaken, Lithium Carbonate Continues to Face Pressure] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Increased geopolitical disturbances reignite inflation concerns. With an unstable macroeconomic situation, the market still bets on one more rate hike each from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year. Supply remains tight at the mine end in the long term, with refined copper supplies remaining low; demand is mainly driven by immediate needs. Be wary of changes in macroeconomic sentiment, pay attention to US CPI data and the subsequent Fed interest rate path. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Domestic destocking is progressing rapidly, and the expected commissioning of new overseas aluminum production capacity creates a medium- to long-term supply headwind. With mixed bullish and bearish factors and ongoing macroeconomic disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: The tight global zinc mine supply situation remains unchanged, and persistently low processing fees at home and abroad provide bottom support. However, demand is characterized by a significant off-season. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to mixed bullish and bearish factors. ⑷ Precious Metals: Renewed geopolitical disturbances, with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, reignited inflation concerns. Precious metal prices weakened today. Despite the market no longer excessively betting on a hawkish Fed policy after the non-farm payroll data release, and limited upside potential for crude oil, the unstable macroeconomic situation and the market's continued betting on one more rate hike each from the ECB and the Bank of England this year suggest that prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention will be focused on Tuesday's US CPI data. (5) Lithium Carbonate: The main contract closed up 0.07% at 152,240 yuan/ton, with the market continuing to weaken due to expectations of ample future supply and pressure from warehouse receipts. Domestic production in July saw a slight overall decline, with lithium extraction from salt lakes entering its peak production period. While raw material supply from lithium mica companies has recovered, the increase is limited. Zimbabwean lithium mines have resumed shipments, and the raw material shortage before new materials arrive at ports has led some smelting companies to reduce operating rates. Warehouse receipt registrations totaled 339 tons to 42,406 tons. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,000 yuan to 153,450 yuan/ton.

20:38:10

[Caixin Futures: Weakening Demand in Off-Season, Steel Prices Seek Bottom, Raw Materials Under Overall Pressure] ⑴ Steel: With the off-season approaching, end-user demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, leaving steel prices lacking effective rebound momentum in the short term. Both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts increased significantly, with short positions showing a more pronounced increase; long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts decreased slightly. Technically, the rebar futures contract has effectively broken below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, steel mill profits continue to be under pressure, with losses widening. Futures prices are below the off-peak electricity cost line for electric arc furnaces in East China, resulting in a relatively low overall valuation. Supply and demand are generally weak, and steel prices may maintain a low-level, weak fluctuation in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to continue the strategy of selling on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. ⑵ Iron Ore: Global shipments have fallen sharply month-on-month, and pig iron production has also declined from its peak, with both supply and demand weakening simultaneously. The September contract closed lower with reduced open interest. Technically, support is seen around 735 yuan/ton, while resistance is around 755 yuan/ton. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with roughly equal amounts, indicating a continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears. While supply-side disruptions have provided some support to sentiment, the overall supply-demand imbalance remains largely unchanged, and prices are likely to remain range-bound in the short term. (3) Coking Coal: Safety inspections in Shanxi continue under high pressure, with repeated mine shutdowns and restarts, resulting in a slow pace of production releases. Pig iron production has declined from its highs, coupled with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions, leading to cautious downstream purchasing. Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders of the September contract decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions, indicating a weakening willingness to actively suppress prices. With steel mill profits under pressure, downstream demand for lower prices is increasing, raising the risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. Coking coal valuations face downward pressure, but continued supply-side disruptions may limit further downside. (4) Coking Coal: Weakening coal prices have led to a slight recovery in coking plant profits, with output likely to remain stable or increase slightly. Pig iron production has peaked and is expected to decline further, weakening demand-side drivers. The futures main contract is trading at a significant discount to the spot price, indicating relatively low valuations. The September contract continues its downward trend, with support at 1835. Steel mill losses are widening, making the implementation of the tenth round of price increases more difficult, and expectations of price reductions are rising, leading to a downward shift in market valuations. However, the large basis level may limit further declines. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fundamentals remain weak and stable. Manganese ore port inventories continue to accumulate, demand is weak, and plant operating rates remain low, resulting in increased plant inventories and overall weak driving forces. The September contract was pressured by the 40-day moving average and closed lower, with support at the 20-day moving average. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with short positions seeing a larger reduction.

20:04:14

Canada's National Economic Confidence Index for the week ending July 10

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 52.60

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4016.36

40.10

(1.01%)

XAG

 55.884

0.395

(0.71%)

CONC

 81.77

3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

 88.08

3.22

(3.80%)

USD

 100.759

0.039

(0.04%)

EURUSD

 1.1438

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

 1.3455

-0.0022

(-0.17%)

USDCNH

 6.7769

0.0044

(0.06%)
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