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2025-10-29 Wednesday

2025-11-04

19:49:36

[Portugal's Unemployment Rate Rises Slightly to 6.0% in September] ⑴ Portugal's unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.0% in September 2025, with the previous figure revised down to 5.9%. ⑵ The unemployment rate reached a five-year low of 5.8% in July. ⑶ The total number of unemployed increased by 4,300 to 337,200. ⑷ The number of employed people increased by 9,400, reaching a record high of 5,287,000. ⑸ The employment rate and labor force participation rate reached record highs of 65.7% and 69.9% respectively. ⑹ The underutilization rate of the labor force rose slightly to 10.2%, from 10.1% previously. ⑺ This indicator covers the unemployed, those awaiting employment, and part-time workers seeking full-time work.

19:49:16

[Italy's Industrial Producer Inflation Accelerated in September] ⑴ Italy's industrial producer price index (PPI) rose 1.1% year-on-year in September 2025, a significant acceleration from the eight-month low of 0.2% in August. ⑵ Domestic producer price growth accelerated, rising 1.5% year-on-year, mainly driven by a 3.0% increase in pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical costs. ⑶ Foreign market prices rose 0.4% year-on-year, with both the Eurozone and non-Eurozone sectors recording growth. ⑷ Within the Eurozone, the main contributors were food, beverages, tobacco, and transport equipment, rising 6.1% and 4.4% respectively. ⑸ Outside the Eurozone, the main contributors were other manufacturing and machinery maintenance and installation, rising 5.3%. ⑹ Excluding energy, the producer inflation rate slightly decreased to 0.8% from 0.9%. ⑺ Seasonally adjusted, producer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.6% decrease in the previous month.

19:48:50

[Average Monthly Salary of Cypriot Employees Increased by 4.2% in Q2] ⑴ In the second quarter of 2025, the average total monthly income of employees in Cyprus increased by 4.2% year-on-year to €2,476, compared to a 4.9% increase in the previous quarter. ⑵ Male employees' salaries increased by 3.8% to €2,656, while female employees' salaries increased by 4.7% to €2,251. ⑶ After seasonal adjustment, quarter-on-quarter wages increased by 0.9% to €2,583.

19:48:43

[South Korea and the US Reach Trade Agreement; South Korea to Invest $350 Billion in the US] According to foreign media reports, after months of negotiations, the United States and South Korea have finally reached a trade agreement. South Korea will invest $150 billion in the US for shipbuilding, and the $350 billion investment includes $200 billion in installments in cash. The investment cap is $20 billion per year. Both Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung praised the strength of the alliance. Trump stated that the US and South Korea are "married," while Lee Myung-bak awarded him South Korea's highest medal and presented him with a replica of a Silla-era gold crown. Furthermore, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged Trump to allow South Korea to secure nuclear fuel supplies for its submarines and to amend a decades-old nuclear energy agreement. He emphasized that South Korea does not intend to build submarines capable of carrying nuclear weapons, but rather to replace its "outdated" diesel-powered vessels. In addition, a South Korean presidential advisor stated that the US will maintain its 15% tariff on all South Korean goods, while tariffs on automobiles will be reduced to 15%, and South Korea will receive most-favored-nation treatment on pharmaceutical tariffs.

19:47:10

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear technology used in the Burevestnik spacecraft will be used in the lunar program.

19:46:54

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: About 40% of our trade is settled in rubles, while the proportion of exports settled in dollars and euros has dropped to 18%.

19:46:16

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The nuclear reactor installed on the "Burevestnik" can be started "within minutes and seconds".

19:45:07

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: Once we resolve the political issues with the US, American and European companies will return to Russia.

19:44:01

The CEO of Santander Bank in Spain stated that issuing mortgages at rates below 2% in Spain is meaningless; growth in this sector must be profitable.

19:43:47

CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund: OPEC+'s commitment to global security and energy security

19:43:13

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia is ready to allow journalists into the blockaded areas inhabited by Ukrainian troops, and Ukraine's political leaders must decide the fate of their besieged citizens. (Regarding the Burevestnik missile launch) Russia can be proud of its scientists.

19:40:43

Russian President Vladimir Putin: The enemies in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk have been blockaded and surrounded.

19:39:16

Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad: I will discuss a possible trip to Washington with Brazilian President Lula today.

19:38:26

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russian forces are advancing across Ukraine.

19:36:16

[Boeing Suffers $5.39 Billion Loss, 777X Delayed Deliveries Trigger $4.9 Billion Impairment] ⑴ Boeing reported a third-quarter loss of $7.14 per share, with an adjusted loss of $7.47 per share, far exceeding the expected $4.59. ⑵ The quarterly net loss of $5.339 billion was primarily dragged down by $4.9 billion in costs related to the 777X aircraft certification delay. ⑶ Revenue of $23.27 billion exceeded market expectations of $21.972 billion, demonstrating the resilience of its core business. ⑷ Operating cash flow remained positive at $1.123 billion, providing necessary financial support for business operations. ⑸ 737 monthly production remained stable at 38 aircraft, with an agreement reached with the Federal Aviation Administration in October to increase it to 42. ⑹ The 777-9 certification timeline was updated, with first deliveries expected to be delayed until 2027. ⑺ The company emphasized that despite the delays, the 777X continued to perform well in flight tests. (8) The huge impairment losses masked the better-than-expected revenue performance, reflecting the serious challenges in project management.

19:35:40

[Media: South Korea-US-Japan Foreign Ministers' Meeting Cancelled, Possibly Due to Trump's "Late Arrival"] According to Yonhap News Agency, the foreign ministers of South Korea, the United States, and Japan were originally scheduled to meet separately on the 29th during the APEC Gyeongju Summit, but the arrangements were ultimately cancelled. The report stated that analysts believe that US President Trump's arrival in South Korea an hour later than planned, along with the postponement of his attendance at the APEC CEO Summit and the South Korea-US summit, forced the cancellation of the South Korea-US-Japan foreign ministers' meeting.

19:34:12

Santander CEO: The acquisition of TSB Bank is expected to be approved and completed in the first quarter of 2026.

19:34:05

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1599.90/ounce, up 1.83% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1600.4/ounce, up 0.98% on the day.

19:33:20

Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó stated on the 29th that the EU is gripped by war fever and preparing for war, therefore it wants to provide Ukraine with nearly 200 billion euros for weapons and national operations.

19:33:10

[USD/CAD Technical Analysis] The hourly chart shows that the exchange rate has fallen from 1.4037 and is moving along the descending trendline. A long bearish candle broke through the static level of 1.3958, finding support at 1.3923, and is currently consolidating around 1.3940. The two purple horizontal lines on the chart mark 1.3980 and 1.3958 respectively; the former is the first short-term resistance, while the latter has turned from support to resistance. The sloping trendline intersects with the price near 1.3960, showing a significant resistance effect. In terms of indicators, the MACD (26,12,9) shows DIF at -0.0009, DEA at -0.0011, and the histogram at 0.0004. The DIF has slightly crossed above the DEA but remains below the zero line, indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened but not reversed. The RSI is around 42, having previously rebounded from around 30 but failing to return to the neutral zone, suggesting the rebound is mainly a technical correction. If it breaks above 1.3958 and stands above the trend line, the target is 1.3980; conversely, if it falls below 1.3923 with high volume, the psychological level of 1.3900 will be tested.

19:32:39

Boeing sets aside $4.9 billion in charges due to delays in its latest 777X jet.

19:32:08

The Bank of Canada's 25-basis-point rate cut is already a given; will the Canadian dollar live or die? Details>

19:31:16

Brazil's monthly rate of bank lending in September

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

19:28:35

[Russian Crude Oil Exports Not Yet Hindered, New Sanctions May Have Lagging Effects] ⑴ New US and EU sanctions against Russian oil giants have not yet substantially affected physical crude oil shipments from the country's western ports. ⑵ October exports from western ports such as Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk are estimated at approximately 2.33 million barrels per day. ⑶ This figure is in line with Russia's revised monthly plan, despite weather restrictions and sanctions pressure. ⑷ The US-set November 21 deadline requires the termination of all transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil. ⑸ The approximately four-week voyage from Baltic ports to Indian refineries presents logistical and financial risks, and currently loaded cargoes will miss the deadline. ⑹ Indian refiners have not yet decided how to handle already purchased Russian oil, and major customers such as Reliance Industries are assessing the contract impact. ⑺ Payment issues may arise, with Russian sellers unwilling to accept rupee settlements, exacerbating transaction complexity. ⑻ The market expects Russian oil sales to shift towards intermediaries and trading companies, which will increase seller costs but buffer buyer risks.

19:22:03

[Middle East Crude Oil Falls to New May Low as Oversupply Looms Over Market] ⑴ The premium for Middle East crude oil benchmarks Dubai and Murban fell on Wednesday as concerns about supply disruptions caused by sanctions on Russian oil producers eased. ⑵ Western sanctions on top Russian producers pushed up benchmark prices last week, but cooled as demand for Middle Eastern grades from India remained limited. ⑶ The cash Dubai to swap premium fell 33 cents to 67 cents per barrel, reflecting increased market supply pressure. ⑷ Murban crude prices fell to a five-month low as the market refocused on ample supply from planned production increases by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries. ⑸ The CEO of Saudi Aramco emphasized that crude oil demand was already strong before the sanctions, and that Chinese demand remains healthy. ⑹ Indian state-owned refiner Mangalore explicitly stated that it has no plans to purchase Russian oil due to risk concerns. ⑺ Iranian crude oil discounts to China widened to their widest level in a year, with independent refineries facing pressure from both import quota shortages and sanctions.

19:18:18

[Copper Prices Surge to Record High of $11,146 as Supply Crisis Erupts] ⑴ Copper prices hit a record high of $11,146 per tonne on Wednesday, driven by a worsening supply shortage. ⑵ Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $11,095, having climbed as much as 1% in early trading, surpassing the previous record of $11,104.50 set in May 2024. ⑶ Mining giant Glencore lowered its annual copper production guidance to 850,000-875,000 tons, down from 850,000-890,000 tons previously, exacerbating supply concerns. ⑷ Anglo American also reported a decline in copper production for the first nine months of 2025 on Tuesday, further escalating market supply tensions. ⑸ Analysts pointed out that cumulative production cuts could push the copper market into a supply deficit state in 2025. ⑹ Aluminum prices rose 0.5% to $2,902, reaching a high of $2,917, the highest level since May 2022. (7) Zinc prices rose 1% to $3,087, a new high since December last year, with the spot price trading at a premium of $170 over the three-month contract. (8) LME zinc inventories were only 35,200 tonnes, close to the lowest level since March 2023, highlighting the tight short-term metal supply.

19:14:40

[German Machinery Severely Hit, 56% of US Exports Face Catastrophic Tariffs] ⑴ The German Engineering Federation (DEF) warns that if the US expands its tariff list in December, 56% of German and European machinery exports will be impacted. ⑵ This percentage has risen significantly from 40% in August, covering almost all branches of mechanical engineering. ⑶ The DEF, representing 3,600 mechanical engineering companies, has conveyed its concerns to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. ⑷ The US Department of Commerce initiated procedures in October to include more products in its steel and aluminum tariff list, with a deadline of early December. ⑸ If the recommendations are adopted, steel and aluminum materials for approximately 200 types of engineering products will face a 50% import tariff. ⑹ Misrepresenting the value or origin of materials could result in punitive tariffs of up to 200%. ⑺ Tariffs bring complex bureaucratic requirements that could disrupt supply chains and ultimately affect US consumers. ⑻ European machinery is widely used in key sectors such as US aerospace, weapons systems, and semiconductor manufacturing.

19:12:48

[Strong Refining Margins Rebound, Phillips 66's Better-than-Expected Results Ignite the Sector] ⑴ Phillips 66's third-quarter profit exceeded Wall Street expectations, primarily driven by strong refining margins. ⑵ US refinery quarterly profit margins have jumped by an average of about 25% from multi-year lows, indicating a clear industry recovery. ⑶ The company's profit margin rose 46% from $8.31 per barrel in the same period last year to $12.15 per barrel. ⑷ Adjusted earnings in the refining division reached $430 million, turning around from a loss of $67 million in the same period last year. ⑸ Adjusted earnings per share were $2.52, significantly exceeding the average analyst expectation of $2.17. ⑹ Profit margins of top US refiners are continuing to recover from last year's lows, indicating a significant improvement in industry sentiment. ⑺ Valero Energy's better-than-expected results last week also confirm the overall recovery trend in the refining sector.

19:12:44

[US Mortgage Applications Rebound] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage applications surged 7.1% in the week ending October 17 compared to the previous week. ⑵ This reversed a four-week decline. ⑶ The rebound in applications coincides with the benchmark mortgage rate falling to a one-year low of 6.3%. ⑷ The rate decline was primarily due to a bleak labor market outlook and concerns about an economic slowdown, which depressed long-term Treasury yields. ⑸ Refinance mortgage applications, which are more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes, surged 9% that week. ⑹ Home purchase mortgage applications followed suit, increasing by 5%.

19:12:24

[US Mortgage Rates Fall to One-Year Low, Stimulating Demand Recovery] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows that the average contracted interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.3% in the week ending October 24, down from 6.37% previously. ⑵ Mortgage rates have fallen for four consecutive weeks, reaching their lowest level since September 2024. ⑶ The decline in rates was mainly due to the continued drop in Treasury yields, and a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index report reinforced market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. ⑷ The association's vice president stated that the decline in rates drove a second consecutive week of growth in refinancing activity, primarily driven by traditional refinancing applications. ⑸ Mortgage applications surged by 9.3%, with home purchase applications increasing by 4.5% and refinancing applications surging by 9.3%.

19:11:30

[US Stock Futures Rise Slightly Awaiting Tech Giant Earnings and Fed Decision] ⑴ US stock index futures rose slightly on Wednesday, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Dow futures up nearly 100 points. ⑵ The three major indexes had previously closed at record highs for three consecutive trading days. ⑶ Nvidia rose about 3% in pre-market trading. ⑷ If the rally continues, the AI leader could become the first publicly traded company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion. ⑸ Traders are awaiting key earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet after the market closes; the three companies rose 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.6% respectively in pre-market trading. ⑹ Verizon Communications rose 2% after reiterating its full-year outlook, while Caterpillar jumped 4.7% on strong third-quarter sales. ⑺ Despite better-than-expected earnings, CVS shares fell more than 3%. ⑻ The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later today.

19:10:48

[Latvia's Retail Sales Growth Slows in September] ⑴ Latvia's retail sales in September 2025 increased by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown from the previously revised 4.4% growth. ⑵ After seasonal adjustment, retail trade in September decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, reversing the previously revised 0.9% growth. ⑶ This month-on-month decline ended three consecutive months of growth.

19:07:08

[US Mortgage Applications Rebound Significantly Week-on-Week] ⑴ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that mortgage applications rose 7.1% week-on-week in the week ending October 24, compared to a 0.3% decrease in the previous week. ⑵ The Market Index rose to 338.7, up from 316.2 in the previous week. ⑶ The Home Purchase Index rose to 164.3, up from 157.3 in the previous week. ⑷ The Refinancing Index rose to 1327.8, up from 1214.7 in the previous week. ⑸ The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.30%, up from 6.37% in the previous week. ⑹ This data typically has a limited impact on the market; mortgage application volume is generally negatively correlated with mortgage rates.

19:05:29

Italy's PPI monthly rate for September

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

19:05:29

Italy's PPI year-on-year rate in September

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

19:04:56

[Preview of the Fed's October Interest Rate Decision] ⑴ The market widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%-4.00%, and announce the end of quantitative tightening. ⑵ The first two paragraphs of the policy statement may be revised to acknowledge the recovery in economic activity. ⑶ The wording in the employment and inflation sections may remain unchanged, but the phrase "inflation has risen" may be removed. ⑷ The statement may mention the uncertainty caused by the lack of key data due to the government shutdown. ⑸ The third paragraph will update the target range for interest rates, with the quantitative tightening section expected to see the biggest change. ⑹ The final paragraph is expected to show that Governor Milan dissented, advocating a 50 basis point rate cut. ⑺ Governor Schmid may advocate keeping interest rates unchanged, consistent with his hawkish stance. ⑻ Since no summary of economic projections will be released, market focus will be on the press conference. ⑼ Fed Chairman Powell is expected to again frame the rate cut as a risk management measure. ⑽ Given the lack of key data, its statements may remain cautious, avoiding excessive forward guidance.

19:04:10

[Austria's October Manufacturing PMI Rises to 48.8] ⑴ The Austrian UniCredit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.8 in October from 47.6 in September. ⑵ Output increased for the third time in four months, as companies maintained production levels by processing backlogged orders. ⑶ New orders declined only slightly, marking the slowest contraction in three and a half years, with initial signs of improvement in domestic and international demand. ⑷ Export sales showed a similar trend, declining slightly amid signals of stable demand from major European trading partners. ⑸ Employment contracted at a faster pace, the sharpest decline since March, as manufacturers continued to adjust their workforce based on overall workload reductions. ⑹ Business confidence improved significantly, reaching its highest level since early 2022, mainly due to expectations of a gradual recovery in domestic and international market conditions.

19:02:52

[UK Mortgage Approvals Hit Nine-Month High in September] ⑴ Net mortgage approvals in the UK rose by 1,000 to 65,900 in September 2025, the highest level in nine months and exceeding market expectations of 64,000. ⑵ Refinance approvals decreased by 600 to 37,200; this indicator only tracks refinancing transactions involving different lenders. ⑶ The "effective" interest rate on newly issued mortgages fell by 7 basis points to 4.19%, the lowest since January 2023. ⑷ The interest rate on newly issued mortgages continued its downward trend since March 2025. ⑸ The interest rate on outstanding mortgages remained unchanged at 3.89%.

19:02:27

[UK Net Consumer Credit Financing Falls to Lowest Level Since May in September] ⑴ UK net personal consumer credit financing in September 2025 was £1.49 billion, down from the revised £1.75 billion in August, marking the lowest level since May. ⑵ Net financing for other forms of consumer credit, such as car dealer financing and personal loans, fell to £800 million, from £1 billion previously. ⑶ Net credit card financing remained largely unchanged from August at £700 million. ⑷ The annual growth rate of all consumer credit rose slightly to 7.3% in September from 7.2% in August. ⑸ The annual growth rate of credit card borrowing rose to 10.8% over the same period from 10.5%. ⑹ The annual growth rate of other forms of consumer credit fell slightly to 5.7% from 5.8%.

19:02:00

[UK Net Mortgage Financing Rises to Six-Month High in September] ⑴ Net personal mortgage financing in the UK increased by £1.2 billion in September, reaching a total of £5.5 billion, the highest level since March. ⑵ The annual growth rate of net mortgage financing rose to 3.2% in September from 3.0% in August, the highest growth rate since January 2023. ⑶ Total mortgage disbursements in September amounted to £24.9 billion, up from £23 billion in the previous month. ⑷ Total mortgage repayments rose slightly to £20.3 billion in September from £20 billion in August.

19:01:36

[Swiss Investor Confidence Index Rebounds Significantly] ⑴ The Swiss investor confidence index rose 38.7 points month-on-month to -7.7 in October 2025. ⑵ UBS Group noted that this is one of the largest increases in the index's history, second only to the surges during the financial crisis and the pandemic. ⑶ Despite the rebound, the 39% tariff imposed by the US on Swiss exports in August continued to dampen market sentiment. ⑷ The US accounts for approximately 17% of Switzerland's total exports, making it Switzerland's largest export market. ⑸ Meanwhile, the current conditions index remained neutral at 0, a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.6. ⑹ This reflects a still weak assessment of the current economic situation.

19:00:49

[Belgium's GDP Accelerated Slightly in the Third Quarter] ⑴ Preliminary data shows that Belgium's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025, a slight acceleration from the previous quarter's 0.2%. ⑵ Most sectors experienced expansion, with industry growing by 0.2%, construction by 1.3%, and services by 0.4%. ⑶ On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 1.1%, higher than the 1.0% in the second quarter.

19:00:30

[Montenegro's Tourist Arrivals Up 8.4% in September] ⑴ Montenegro received 189,447 tourists in September 2025, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.7% in the previous month. ⑵ Foreign tourists dominated overnight stays, accounting for 92.2%, while domestic tourists accounted for 7.8%. ⑶ European tourists accounted for the highest proportion at 74.5%, with major source countries including Serbia (12.4%), the UK (7.3%), and Germany (6.5%). ⑷ Major markets outside Europe included Israel (9.1%) and the US (3%). ⑸ By resort type, seaside resorts accounted for the highest proportion of overnight stays at 89.7%. ⑹ The capital region accounted for 5.6%, mountain resorts for 2.9%, and other resorts for 1.8%.

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending October 24

Previous : 316.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 338.70

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : 1214.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 1327.80

19:00:06

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending October 24 week-on-week

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.10%

19:00:06

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending October 24 in the United States

Previous : 157.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 164.30

19:00:03

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending October 24

Previous : 6.37% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30%

18:52:44

With a multitude of negative factors pushing the price to a three-month low, when will palm oil see a technical rebound? Details>

18:50:21

[Palm Oil Breaks Down, Soybean Oil and Crude Oil Prices Trigger Technical Breakdown] ⑴ Palm oil futures closed lower, mainly dragged down by the weakening prices of soybean oil and crude oil. ⑵ The January delivery contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 65 ringgit to 4252 ringgit per tonne. ⑶ Traders confirmed key technical support at 4200 ringgit per tonne and resistance at 4350 ringgit per tonne. ⑷ Current prices are approaching a key support area, and the market faces a directional choice. ⑸ Weak demand and increased production are putting pressure on palm oil prices this week. ⑹ The weak performance of the soybean oil market has been transmitted to the palm oil market through the substitution effect. ⑺ The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the attractiveness of biodiesel, indirectly affecting the demand outlook for palm oil. ⑻ Technical and fundamental factors are resonating with a bearish sentiment, and the market focus is on testing the effectiveness of support levels.

18:49:08

[Asian Fuel Oil Price Decline Intensifies! Spot Discounts Widen into Deep Negative Range] ⑴ The spot price spreads for high-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil continued to decline on Wednesday, indicating further weakening of the market structure. ⑵ The futures-spot price spreads for both 180cc and 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil have fallen into deeper discount ranges, with traders continuing to sell. ⑶ Spot prices for 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil have declined in tandem, with ample supply being the main reason for market weakness. ⑷ The ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil market has also softened, with Malaysia's PrefChem adding an atmospheric residue supply for November loading. ⑸ This 540,000-barrel shipment is expected to be loaded on November 13-14, with bidding closing later this week. ⑹ The Singapore 380cc high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread has deteriorated sharply to a discount of over $4.50 per barrel. ⑺ The ultra-low-sulfur fuel oil crack spread has fallen back to a premium of less than $6 per barrel, a recent low. (8) Fujairah's heavy fuel oil inventories plummeted 23.8% to 6.49 million barrels, but this failed to reverse the bearish sentiment in the market.

18:42:54

[German Bond Yields Trapped in Range-Bound Trading, 2.60% Becomes Key Defense Line for Bulls and Bears] ⑴ MFS Investment Management maintains a neutral stance as long as the 10-year German government bond yield hovers around 2.60%. ⑵ Tradeweb data shows the 10-year German bond yield recently rose 0.5 basis points to 2.625%. ⑶ The company expects the 10-year German bond yield to trade within a range of 2.40% to 2.80%. ⑷ Assuming no major changes in fundamentals, this range assessment will remain valid. ⑸ MFS expects the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. ⑹ The company believes the December meeting is more noteworthy as it will provide more economic data to support its decisions. ⑺ The European Central Bank will release its latest forecast report in December, including a long-term outlook for 2028. ⑻ The head of developed market sovereign debt research points out that more comprehensive data will provide a clearer policy path.

18:40:39

[German Bond Demand Recovers! €3.38 Billion Issuance Reflects Rising Safe-Haven Sentiment] ⑴ The Bundesbank successfully issued €3.378 billion in 10-year enhanced federal bonds with a yield of 2.60%. ⑵ The average yield in this auction was 2.62%, a significant decrease of 10 basis points from the previous issuance's 2.72%. ⑶ The bid-to-cover ratio reached 1.3 times, better than the previous 1.2 times, indicating improved market demand. ⑷ The decline in yield reflects the continued rise in market enthusiasm for high-quality, safe assets. ⑸ The increased bid-to-cover ratio indicates a gradual recovery in investor confidence in core Eurozone country bonds. ⑹ In the current environment of market uncertainty, German government bonds continue to serve as a safe haven. ⑺ This successful issuance has laid a stable foundation for the Eurozone sovereign bond market, attracting conservative investment.

18:29:50

South Korean Presidential Advisor: Agreed to only proceed with projects that are commercially viable. Agreed to split profits 50/50 until initial investment is recovered. Agreement reached on tools to minimize investment losses. Successfully prevented further opening of the agricultural market. A breakthrough in the trade agreement will improve the trade environment for South Korean businesses.

18:29:30

South Korean presidential advisor: $350 billion investment in the US includes $200 billion in cash payments in installments.

18:29:25

South Korean presidential advisor: Automobile tariffs will be reduced to 15%. South Korea successfully capped its annual aid to the US at $20 billion. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US, of which $200 billion will be paid in cash installments, and $150 billion will be used for shipbuilding cooperation.

18:29:04

South Korean Presidential Advisor: South Korea and the United States have reached an agreement on the details of a trade deal

18:27:37

[Silver Mining Stocks Surge 5% Amid Fed Rate Cut Prompt] ⑴ Silver mining stocks listed in the US rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Hekel Mining up 4.5% and Coeur Mining up 5.4%. ⑵ Spot silver prices surged 2.5% to $48.292 per ounce, a new high for the period. ⑶ The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday. ⑷ Investors are closely watching Powell's speech, hoping for forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. ⑸ Endeavour Silver surged 5.3%, with Silvercorp Metals following suit with a 3.8% gain, showing a broad-based rally in the sector. ⑹ Silver ETFs also strengthened, with the abrdn physical silver ETF rising 2.5% and the iShares Silver Trust rising 2.6%. ⑺ The gains in mining stocks significantly outpaced the performance of spot silver, indicating leverage and rising market risk appetite. ⑻ The simultaneous surge in the precious metals sector and interest rate-sensitive assets reflects strong market expectations for easing policies.

18:27:03

[US Treasury Market Holds Breath Awaiting Decision; Yield Curve Narrows Across the Board Ahead of FOMC] ⑴ The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated between 49.1 and 47.7 basis points, last quoted at 48.7 basis points. ⑵ The spread between 5-year and 30-year yields oscillated narrowly between 93.3 and 92.2 basis points, last quoted at 92.9 basis points. ⑶ Yields across all maturities narrowed: 2-year at 3.502%, 5-year at 3.623%, 10-year at 3.991%, and 30-year at 4.552%. ⑷ Trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures was only 192,000 contracts, significantly lower than the recent average, indicating thin market activity. ⑸ The Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point cut to the 3.75%-4.00% range. ⑹ Diplomatic trips to Asia and the white-collar unemployment surge triggered by artificial intelligence are key factors influencing market sentiment. (7) The Treasury will auction $69 billion in 17-cycle Treasury bonds and $30 billion in 2-year floating-rate notes. (8) Investors remain cautious ahead of major risk events, resulting in low trading volume and narrow price fluctuations in the bond market.

18:18:30

[The Fed Cuts Rates by a Major 25 Basis Point tonight! A Historic Policy Shift Behind It] ⑴ Market pricing indicates that investors almost unanimously expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. ⑵ The target range for the interest rate will be lowered from the current 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%. ⑶ This will be Powell's third attempt at a preemptive rate cut, aimed at mitigating the risk of recession rather than addressing a crisis. ⑷ A similar effort in 2019 was interrupted by the outbreak of the pandemic and failed to demonstrate the full extent of the policy's effects. ⑸ The labor market stabilized last year, but the decline in inflation has stalled this year. ⑹ Stagnant inflation may reflect the continued impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric on price levels. ⑺ The Fed is continuing its policy navigation journey since the turn of the century, navigating major challenges such as the bursting of the tech bubble, the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. ⑻ This rate cut decision will test the central bank's forward-looking ability to implement easing policies in a non-crisis environment.

18:17:06

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka: The yield on the 364-day treasury bill auction was 8.04%, higher than the 8.02% of the previous auction.

18:16:04

[The Nordic Power Game Intensifies: A Tug-of-War Behind the Daytime Price of €58.1] ⑴ The Nordic system electricity price is expected to reach €58.1/MWh on Thursday, a slight increase from the previous estimate of €57.9. ⑵ Wind power output is expected to increase by 3.8 GWh/h tomorrow, while consumer demand is expected to decrease by 0.4 GWh/h. ⑶ Remaining load (consumption minus wind and solar power) is expected to decrease by 4.1 GWh/h, easing supply pressure. ⑷ Exports to Germany/Netherlands/Estonia/Lithuania/Poland/UK are expected to increase by 0.3 GWh/h. ⑸ Bullish Factors: Reduced water inflows to Norway/Sweden/Finland tomorrow necessitate an increase of 270 MWh/h in the first four hours of the Nordic power grid. ⑹ Key Unit Changes: Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3 output is expected to decrease to 970 MW tomorrow, and several hydroelectric units are offline. (7) Bearish factors: Consumption models indicate a demand decrease of 360 MWh/hour tomorrow, with average temperature rising by 0.9 degrees Celsius. (8) Surge in wind power: Wind power generation in Denmark/Sweden/Norway/Finland increased by 3790 MWh/hour to an average of 9630 MWh/hour. (9) Germany's benchmark electricity price was €87.8/MWh today, peaking at €55.1; it is expected to remain range-bound tomorrow.

18:11:43

[UK £5 Billion 7-Year Bonds Issued: Demand Tested by Yield Spread Advantage] ⑴ The UK Debt Management Office will issue £5 billion of new 7-year government bonds with a coupon rate of 4.125% and a maturity date of March 2033. ⑵ The bonds are currently trading at a 11.5 basis point yield spread compared to the linear interpolation of bonds maturing in June 2032 and January 2034. ⑶ The new 5-year government bonds issued last Thursday also had a yield spread advantage, but the auction results were only in line with expectations and not outstanding. ⑷ The winning yield for the previous 5-year government bond auction was 0.4 basis points higher than the grey market quote, reflecting slight pricing pressure. ⑸ Although the bid-to-cover ratio reached a robust level of 2.8 times, it shows that investors remain cautious about bond pricing. ⑹ In the current market environment, investor demand for government bonds remains, but they are cautious about the timing of entry. (7) The new bond issuance will test the market’s ability to absorb longer-term UK government bonds, with particular attention to the final pricing level and bid-to-cover ratio.

18:10:37

[SKF Warns of Weak Demand, Shares Plunge 4%, Shattering Manufacturing Dreams] ⑴ Swedish bearing manufacturer SKF expects continued weak demand in the short term, mainly due to market uncertainty. ⑵ Adjusted operating profit for the third quarter fell 2% to SEK 2.76 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of SEK 2.72 billion. ⑶ Shares fell 4% in response, although the year-to-date gain remains at 17%. ⑷ The CEO noted that customers are maintaining a cautious purchasing attitude due to tariffs, geopolitics, and global conflicts. ⑸ Despite stable demand at low levels, SKF largely offset the impact of tariff increases in the third quarter through price hikes. ⑹ The company expects to continue to address tariff cost pressures through price adjustments in the fourth quarter. ⑺ The US market contributed one-fifth of SKF's sales last year, and the company is considering shifting some production to the US. ⑻ Organic sales growth of 2% in the third quarter was mainly driven by the industrial sector, but the outlook for the fourth quarter is becoming more conservative.

18:10:15

Santander Brazil's Q3 Net Profit Exceeds 4 Billion Reais, Leading the Financial Sector: ⑴ Santander Brazil's recurring net profit for the third quarter reached 4.01 billion reais, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.71 billion reais. ⑵ The bank's net profit increased by 9.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, demonstrating a continued improvement in profitability. ⑶ Consolidated loan size increased to 688.8 billion reais, maintaining a steady pace of asset expansion. ⑷ Loan loss provisions were 7.51 billion reais, reflecting the bank's prudent risk management strategy. ⑸ The 90-day default rate was 3.4%, with asset quality indicators remaining within a controllable range. ⑹ Net profit performance exceeded analysts' expectations by approximately 8%, highlighting superior operating efficiency compared to peers. ⑺ Strong performance data supported investor confidence and consolidated its leading position in the Brazilian banking sector.

18:04:21

[UK £3.75 Billion Bond Issuance Sparks 3-Fold Oversubscription] ⑴ The UK Debt Management Office successfully issued £3.75 billion of 4.125% conventional government bonds, maturing in 2033. ⑵ The issuance was oversubscribed 3.04 times, with market demand far exceeding supply. ⑶ The winning yield was only 0.3 basis points at the tail end, while the price was 1.9 ticks at the tail end, indicating precise pricing. ⑷ The lowest accepted price corresponded to a yield of 4.194%, and the highest accepted price corresponded to a yield of 4.187%. ⑸ A total of £11.4115 billion in bids were received, with £3.187499 billion allocated through competitive bidding. ⑹ The success rate at the lowest accepted price level was as high as 98.2352%, reflecting investor acceptance of the current yield level. ⑺ Market makers received £562.5 million in non-competitive allocations, ensuring ample liquidity in the secondary market. (8) Strong bidding demand indicates that UK government bonds remain highly attractive in the global fixed income market.

18:03:24

[Demand for Italian Treasury Bonds Surges, €4 Billion Issuance Ignites Battle for Safe-Haven Assets] ⑴ The Italian Treasury successfully issued €4 billion in short-term treasury bonds on Wednesday, of which €2 billion matures in December 2025. ⑵ The average yield on bonds maturing in December 2025 was 1.974%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.78. ⑶ The average yield on bonds maturing in March 2026 was 2.004%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.76. ⑷ The two maturities attracted over €7 billion in bids, with market demand far exceeding supply. ⑸ The robust market acceptance of the short-term bond issuance demonstrates investor confidence in assets from peripheral Eurozone countries. ⑹ Bid-to-cover ratios remained above a healthy level of 1.75, reflecting continued strong demand for safe-haven assets. ⑺ The yield curve exhibits a normal upward slope, with short-term interest rate pricing in line with the European Central Bank's policy expectations.

18:03:06

[Jordan Launches 120,000-Ton Wheat Tender, Igniting Food Trade War] ⑴ Jordan's National Grain Procurement Agency launched an international tender on Wednesday, planning to purchase up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat. ⑵ This tender allows for sourcing from select origins, providing suppliers with greater flexibility in choosing their sources. ⑶ The deadline for bids is set for November 4th, highlighting the urgency of the procurement. ⑷ This tender is a direct response to Tuesday's failed tender for 120,000 tons of wheat, demonstrating the country's urgent food needs. ⑸ The new tender requires shipments in batches, with 60,000 tons shipped in four separate periods between January 1st and February 28th, 2026. ⑹ The shipment schedule is identical to Tuesday's failed tender, indicating Jordan's adherence to its original supply timeline. ⑺ Jordan also launched a tender for 120,000 tons of feed barley at the same time, which will close on Wednesday. ⑻ These two large-scale grain purchases demonstrate Jordan's determination to ensure food security and will likely trigger fierce competition among international suppliers.

18:00:54

[France's Digital Tax Takes a Blow, Doubling the Rate to 6%, Igniting a Trade Powder Keg Between the US and Europe] ⑴ The French National Assembly passed an amendment to the 2026 budget, significantly increasing the digital income tax rate from 3% to 6%. ⑵ This tax adjustment directly targets US tech giants such as Amazon, Alphabet (Google's parent company), and Meta. ⑶ While lower than the radical proposal to raise the rate to 15%, a 100% increase will still significantly increase the tax burden on businesses. ⑷ US Republican lawmakers warned that this move constitutes an unwarranted attack on US tech companies and could trigger a strong backlash. ⑸ The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened retaliatory tariffs against France, bringing trade tensions to a head. ⑹ This amendment is only part of the budget; the final bill will be voted on next month or December, and the outcome remains uncertain. ⑺ Although the amendment was proposed by President Macron's party, the French government is taking a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for international dialogue to advance the process. (8) The French Finance Minister noted Parliament’s willingness to strengthen taxes on digital giants, but stressed the need to handle the tax threshold issue with caution.

18:00:08

[Mercedes-Benz Luxury Car Sales Surge 10%, Breaking Profit Ceiling] ⑴ Mercedes-Benz's automotive business profit margin reached 4.8% in the third quarter, exceeding market expectations of 4.7% and 3.9% in the same period last year. ⑵ Sales of high-end models achieved a robust 10% increase, with high-profit brands such as Maybach and AMG performing particularly well. ⑶ The company's free cash flow reached approximately €1.4 billion, and its strong cash generation capacity prompted the resumption of its share buyback program. ⑷ Despite facing the impact of restructuring and layoff costs, resulting in a 70% drop in operating profit, the core business remained remarkably resilient. ⑸ The share price rose 6% to a seven-month high, with the market reacting positively to the better-than-expected performance and capital return initiatives. ⑹ The CEO pointed out that the company is facing multiple challenges, including Trump's tariff rhetoric and intense market competition. ⑺ Electrification transformation and European emissions targets pose long-term pressures, but the premiumization strategy has effectively offset industry headwinds.

17:59:14

[The Era of High-Stakes Forex Trading Has Arrived! Carry Trade Frenzy Disrupts Traditional Patterns] ⑴ This year's forex trends may intensify further, with more funds flowing into carry trades or euro assets. ⑵ The market exhibited strong speculative intent in 2025, significantly boosting the valuations of many risk assets. ⑶ Declining confidence in global reserve currencies supported the euro's performance, with the trade-weighted euro index continuing to strengthen. ⑷ The euro jumped from a February low of 1.0125 against the dollar to a high of 1.1918 last month, a gain of nearly 1800 points. ⑸ Although the exchange rate stalled before the key 1.20 level, the euro still hit a record high against the yen. ⑹ Carry trade performance was astonishing, with high-yield emerging market currencies rising far more than interest rate yields themselves. ⑺ Safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen, which should have benefited from trade turmoil, instead fell sharply. ⑻ Selling traditional safe-haven currencies to fund carry trades became a significant factor driving their decline. (9) Increasing investment during trade disputes, which are generally unfavorable for arbitrage, is tantamount to extreme market gamble. (10) The continued boom in US stocks and the rebound in gold and Bitcoin after a slight correction have further fueled the speculative frenzy.

17:58:51

US Dollar Outlook: Dollar Index Holds Steady Ahead of Fed Meeting, Market Prepares for Volatility Details>

17:57:56

UBS CEO: We hope to continue doing business in Switzerland

17:57:21

India's chief economic advisor: Debt ratio and deficit ratio will continue to decline in the coming years.

17:56:23

Can the gold rally rally take off again with the help of the Federal Reserve? Details>

17:54:42

India's Chief Economic Advisor: This fiscal year, our GDP growth rate will be higher than the previously forecast range of 6.3% to 6.8%. I wouldn't be surprised if GDP growth exceeds 7%. In the coming years, our inflation rate will converge with that of developed economies. The Indian rupee is expected to stabilize and strengthen in the coming years. The fiscal deficit target of 4.4% is on track to be achieved.

17:54:14

Saudi Expo 2030 CEO: All major Saudi projects will be completed by 2030, including Diriyah, Al-Giddia (not Al-Giddyah), King Salman Park, and Sports Boulevard.

17:53:08

[European Gas Market Tug-of-War! Norwegian Production Cuts Counter the Impact of a Mild Winter] ⑴ Wholesale gas prices in the Netherlands and the UK rose slightly on Wednesday, as a decrease in Norwegian supply offset weak heating demand due to mild weather. ⑵ The benchmark Dutch TTF near-month contract rose €0.23 to €31.73 per megawatt-hour, while the December contract rose €0.29 to €31.99. ⑶ UK near-month gas prices rose 0.59 pence to 80.22 pence per tsimam, maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern. ⑷ Norwegian gas infrastructure maintenance led to a drop in exports to 287 million cubic meters per day, a significant decrease from Monday's 326 million cubic meters. ⑸ Analysts warned that any extension of maintenance plans would pose a bullish risk and could further push up gas prices. ⑹ Heating demand in Northwest Europe is expected to decrease by 54 gigawatt-hours per day, with warm weather continuing to suppress consumption. ⑺ The EU announced it will begin pooling corporate gas demand, accelerating its strategy to reduce dependence on Russian energy. (8) The benchmark contract in the European carbon market rose by €0.36 to €78.65 per tonne as the cost of energy transition continued to climb.

17:52:16

[Central State-Owned Enterprises Strategic Emerging Industries Development Special Fund Launched with Initial Size of 51 Billion Yuan] Today (29th), the Central State-Owned Enterprises Strategic Emerging Industries Development Special Fund, initiated by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and entrusted to China State-owned Assets Holdings Co., Ltd. for establishment and management, was launched in Beijing. The fund is now ready for investment and will help accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries. The initial size of the fund is 51 billion yuan, of which China State-owned Assets Holdings Co., Ltd. plans to contribute approximately 15 billion yuan. The fund has a 5-year investment period and an 8-year management and exit period, with the investment period potentially extended by up to 2 years, for a total of 15 years. As a special fund under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council to promote the accelerated development of strategic emerging industries of central state-owned enterprises, the fund will support state-owned enterprises in addressing industrial weaknesses and shortcomings, deploying cutting-edge innovation, and further enhancing their core functions and competitiveness. It will focus on supporting strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, aerospace, high-end equipment, and quantum technology, as well as key areas of future industries such as future energy, future information, and future manufacturing. (CCTV News)

17:50:20

India's chief economic advisor: I wouldn't be surprised if our GDP growth exceeds 7%. This fiscal year, our GDP growth rate will be higher than the expected range of 6.3% to 6.8%.

17:50:09

[USD/JPY Breaks Through 152.5, Nikkei Stocks Surpass 50,000 Points, Triggering a Chain Reaction in the Currency Market] ⑴ The USD/JPY pair rose from 151.54 to 152.54 on Wednesday, a single-day increase of 100 points, showing a strong breakout pattern. ⑵ The Nikkei index broke through the historical 51,000-point mark for the first time, with currency hedging operations simultaneously driving capital inflows. ⑶ Although technical charts show a divergence between bullish and bearish forces during the day, the upward trend remains dominant. ⑷ The across-the-board strengthening of the US dollar was mainly driven by optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement, with risk appetite significantly rebounding. ⑸ The EUR/JPY pair fluctuated between 176.70 and 177.40 on Wednesday, still below the historical high of 178.23 reached on Monday. ⑹ Market participants are calling on the Japanese government to give the central bank room to raise interest rates, paving the way for the normalization of monetary policy. ⑺ The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting this week, and the market generally expects it to maintain interest rates unchanged.

17:46:56

[Bank of Canada Trapped in Rate Cut Dilemma: Three Key Data Points Reveal Policy Dilemmas] ⑴ The Bank of Canada cut interest rates in September, with a weak labor market and sluggish investment plans posing major pressures. ⑵ Trade policy uncertainty continues to escalate, with market concerns about Trump's tariff rhetoric intensifying. ⑶ Despite a sharp rise in core inflation, it failed to offset downside risks to the economic fundamentals. ⑷ Dominique Lapointe, Head of Macro Strategy at Manulife Wealth & Asset Management, points out that the logic behind the September rate cut still holds true in October. ⑸ If the economic situation in September warranted a rate cut, the continued existence of the same factors provides a basis for another rate cut. ⑹ Inflation concerns and economic growth pressures create a policy balancing act, leaving the central bank in a dilemma. ⑺ The market is closely watching how the Bank of Canada balances conflicting economic signals; the next interest rate decision is highly anticipated.

17:44:43

[Major Earthquake in India's Sugar Industry: Sugarcane Procurement Prices Surge 8.1% in Uttar Pradesh] ⑴ Uttar Pradesh, India, announced on Wednesday an 8.1% increase in the minimum procurement price for sugarcane for the new crushing season. ⑵ For the new crushing season starting this month, the price for early-maturing sugarcane is set at 400 rupees per 100 kg, a significant increase from 370 rupees last year. ⑶ This price increase of 30 rupees directly pushes up the raw material procurement costs for sugar mills. ⑷ Uttar Pradesh is India's second-largest sugar-producing region, and its pricing policy has a significant impact on the national sugar industry. ⑸ Local sugar mills are expected to begin crushing next month, and the new price standard will take effect immediately. ⑹ Converted at the exchange rate, the new price is equivalent to US$4.55 per 100 kg, and the cost pressure may be transmitted to the global sugar market.

17:42:45

[Santander's Business Landscape Transforms! €3.2 Billion Share Buyback Plan Ignites Capital Speculation] ⑴ The CFO of Santander Bank confirmed that the US automotive business continues to outperform expectations. ⑵ The bank expects risk costs for its Brazilian operations to be between 4.7% and 4.8% by the end of 2025. ⑶ The CEO stated that the sale of shares in the Polish subsidiary is progressing as planned and is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026. ⑷ The CFO explicitly pledged to strictly implement the €3.2 billion share buyback plan once the Polish asset sale is completed. ⑸ The strong performance of the US automotive business contrasts sharply with the manageable risk costs in Brazil, highlighting regional differences. ⑹ The disposal of the Polish assets will be a key turning point in triggering a large-scale capital return plan, directly impacting shareholder returns. ⑺ The €3.2 billion buyback scale demonstrates management's pursuit of efficient capital allocation and its determination to create shareholder value.

17:40:43

US President Trump: We did reach a trade agreement with South Korea.

17:39:56

[UK Housing Market Defies Trend, Mortgage Approvals Hit 10-Month High] ⑴ UK mortgage approvals reached 65,944 in September, the highest monthly figure since December last year. ⑵ This figure significantly exceeded the median forecast of 64,000 economists surveyed. ⑶ Net mortgage lending increased by £5.489 billion in September, significantly higher than the expected £4.1 billion. ⑷ Net consumer credit increased by £1.491 billion, roughly in line with market expectations of £1.5 billion. ⑸ M4 money supply grew by 0.6% month-on-month, indicating that market liquidity remains stable and expanding. ⑹ Mortgage approvals grew at their fastest pace in nearly 10 months, a stark contrast to recent cautious signals in the housing market. ⑺ The data release comes on the eve of Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget announcement, injecting a positive signal into the UK housing market.

17:39:03

[BASF's Metals Trading Profits Trigger 3% Share Price Surge] ⑴ BASF's adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter fell 4.8% to €1.54 billion, but still slightly exceeded market expectations of €1.5 billion. ⑵ The financial results included the performance of the coatings business, which was agreed to be sold this month, and the actual performance exceeded analysts' consensus expectations. ⑶ The share price rose 3% to a three-week high in early trading, mainly driven by better-than-expected results and the early implementation of the share buyback program. ⑷ The company announced on Tuesday evening that it would implement its previously announced share buyback program ahead of schedule, a move earlier than the market expected. ⑸ The unexpected resilience in profitability stemmed in part from the strong performance of its precious metals trading business, which uses metals in the production of catalytic converters. ⑹ BASF warned that the overall market environment remains challenging, with customers maintaining a cautious purchasing attitude in almost all industries and regions. ⑺ The company lowered prices in areas such as basic chemicals, industrial materials, and agricultural products, with only the surface technologies and nutrition and care divisions implementing price increases. ⑻ BASF adjusted its full-year guidance, expecting EBITDA before special items to be in the range of €6.7 billion to €7.1 billion.

17:37:50

[Russia Launches Surprise Move: Significant Cut in Foreign Exchange Sales Next Year Shakes Ruble Foundation] ⑴ Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina announced on Wednesday that the country will reduce the scale of foreign exchange sales by the National Wealth Fund in 2026. ⑵ This move will directly weaken official support for the ruble exchange rate and may affect currency stability. ⑶ Foreign exchange sales are mainly used to cover budget deficits, and the more balanced 2026 budget, currently under parliamentary review, is the main reason for the reduction. ⑷ The Central Bank of Russia is responsible for both foreign exchange sales by the Fiscal Reserve Fund and intervention operations to smooth exchange rate fluctuations. ⑸ The bank maintained a net selling of foreign exchange throughout 2025, continuously providing liquidity to the market. ⑹ Central bank foreign exchange sales, coupled with high interest rates and slowing imports, jointly supported the ruble's rebound at the beginning of this year and maintained its strong performance. ⑺ Nabiullina pointed out that Western sanctions have affected import and export flows, leading to a significant increase in ruble exchange rate volatility. ⑻ She emphasized that the ruble exchange rate should be market-driven, balancing the interests of different market participants.

17:37:06

[France Takes Drastic Action, Doubling Digital Tax to 6%, Igniting Cross-Border Dispute] ⑴ The French National Assembly formally passed amendments to the 2026 budget on Tuesday evening. ⑵ The amendments plan to drastically increase the tax rate on the digital revenue of large technology companies from the original 3% to 6%. ⑶ This tax adjustment directly affects US tech giants such as Amazon, Google's parent company Alphabet, and Meta. ⑷ The tax rate increase reaches 100%, doubling the original rate and significantly increasing the tax burden on relevant companies. ⑸ This move may trigger a strong reaction from the US government, and the market is concerned that it will reignite cross-border trade friction.

17:35:57

[Australian Dollar Surpasses 0.66! Explosive Inflation Shatters Central Bank Rate Cut Expectations] ⑴ The Australian dollar tested the 0.66 level against the US dollar, strengthened by higher-than-expected inflation data. ⑵ Core CPI rose 1% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of 0.9%. ⑶ Overall CPI rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the median forecast of 1.1%. ⑷ Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Bullock had previously stated that a 0.9% core CPI increase would constitute a substantial deviation. ⑸ Current data directly led to a postponement of market expectations for an RBA rate cut until at least February next year. ⑹ The Australian dollar touched below the 0.6625-30 resistance zone against the US dollar but failed to break through this technical level. ⑺ Considering the buying support from stock market inflows, the exchange rate may still test the 0.67 level. ⑻ The overwhelmingly better-than-expected inflation data provided fundamental support for the Australian dollar, significantly reducing the probability of a rate cut in the short term.

17:34:46

[Bank of England Rate Cut Alarm Sounded! Goldman Sachs' Sudden Shift Triggers Storm for Pound-Related Assets] ⑴ Goldman Sachs announced on Tuesday that it is adjusting its interest rate forecast for the Bank of England, now expecting a 25 basis point cut in November. ⑵ This policy shift is based on weaker-than-expected inflation data last week and signs of tightening in the labor market. ⑶ UK consumer inflation in September was 3.8%, lower than the central bank's expected 4%, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in November. ⑷ In September, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Bank of England would keep interest rates unchanged until 2025, followed by an easing cycle in 2026. ⑸ The institution pointed out that economic data since September has been significantly weaker than previously expected. ⑹ Goldman Sachs expects the UK budget to be announced next month to have a large-scale contractionary effect on the economy. ⑺ The Wall Street investment bank now predicts that the Bank of England will cut interest rates quarterly, bringing the bank rate down from the current 4% to 3% by July 2026. (8) Current market pricing indicates a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, while the combined probability of a rate cut in November or December reaches 70%. (9) Top investment banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, previously predicted that after holding rates steady in September, there would be no further rate cuts this year.

17:30:31

The annual rate of the UK's M4 money supply in September

Previous : 3.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.60%

17:30:07

The Bank of England's consumer credit in September

Previous : 16.92 Forecast : 15

美元

英镑

Published Value 14.91

17:30:06

The monthly rate of the UK's M4 money supply in September

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.60%

17:30:06

The Bank of England granted mortgage loans in September

Previous : 6.47 Forecast : 6.40

Published Value 6.59

17:30:05

The Bank of England's mortgage lending in September

Previous : 43.08 Forecast : 41

英镑

美元

Published Value 54.89

17:27:41

[Sudden Political Changes in Bulgaria! Power Shift Behind the Speaker's Sudden Resignation] ⑴ Bulgarian National Assembly Speaker Kiselova announced her resignation on October 29th, local time. ⑵ This resignation stemmed directly from a significant decision made by the ruling coalition the previous day: a new mechanism will be implemented where the Speaker position rotates every ten months. ⑶ Kiselova was elected Speaker of the Bulgarian Parliament in December 2024, serving for approximately ten months. ⑷ The ruling coalition's adjustment to the rotation system directly triggered this change in the Speaker's appointment. ⑸ The establishment of this rotation mechanism marks a new phase in the power distribution within Bulgarian politics.

17:23:24

Moody's ratings assigned a Ba2(hyb) rating to the proposed Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instrument to be issued by Hypo Vorarlberg Bank AG.

17:22:20

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose 0.50% to 3.996% during the day.

17:20:43

[Carmignac Goes All-Out Short on US Treasuries, Yield Curve Faces Widespread Impact] ⑴ Kevin Thozet, a member of Carmignac's investment committee, confirmed that the firm has turned its position across the entire US Treasury yield curve into a full short position. ⑵ This decision is based on the market's full pricing of Fed rate cuts at the short end of the yield curve, while fiscal concerns pose a risk to long-term Treasuries. ⑶ Carmignac believes the market's expectation of five rate cuts over the next 12 months is overly optimistic, which could lead to an upward shift in short-term yields. ⑷ Long-term yields also face upward pressure due to a combination of factors, including Fed rate cut expectations, a large fiscal deficit, and potential policy uncertainty. ⑸ The firm judges that current market pricing is significantly deviating from fundamentals, providing an opportunity to establish short positions. ⑹ Continued fiscal concerns are a key factor suppressing long-term bond performance and could trigger an overall upward shift in the yield curve.

46

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3956.70	-44.46 (-1.11%)
XAG	47.337	-0.722 (-1.50%)
CONC	60.54	-0.51 (-0.84%)
OILC	64.39	-0.43 (-0.67%)
USD	100.140	0.276 (0.28%)
EURUSD	1.1481	-0.0037 (-0.33%)
GBPUSD	1.3045	-0.0094 (-0.71%)
USDCNH	7.1336	0.0092 (0.13%)

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