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New York：12/24 22:26:56

2025-12-12 Friday

2025-12-20

22:48:46

Goldman Sachs Bullish on 2026 US Stocks: S&P 500 Targets 7600 Points, Six Tech Giants to Drive Nearly Half of Growth] Goldman Sachs, a leading international investment bank, released its latest market outlook report, expressing optimism about the performance of the US stock market in 2026 and setting a target of 7600 points for the S&P 500 index, indicating that the US stock market is likely to continue its strong upward trend. Ben Snider, Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist, pointed out in the report that productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence technology will be a key engine for US stock earnings growth. Goldman Sachs predicts that the earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 components will achieve a significant growth of 12% in 2026, reaching $305. Notably, of this expected growth, six leading technology companies will contribute nearly half of the incremental growth, continuing to be the core driver of market gains. However, Snider also emphasized that the growth momentum of the US stock market is not limited to large-cap technology stocks. With the widespread adoption of AI technology and the gradual improvement of the economic environment, the earnings performance of other constituent stocks in the S&P 500 is expected to improve in tandem, potentially further enhancing the balance of market growth. Goldman Sachs did not shy away from potential risks. The report mentioned that factors such as the Federal Reserve slowing its easing policy and continued pressure on corporate profit margins could cause some volatility in the US stock market. However, considering various fundamental factors and industry trends, the Goldman Sachs team maintains a positive outlook on the overall performance of the US stock market in 2026, believing that the long-term growth logic remains unchanged.

21:51:37

[Fed's "Hawkish" Figure Reveals His Hand: Inflation Uncertainty is the Only Concern; Rate Cut Expected Next Year but Needs to Be Waited For] ⑴ Chicago Fed President Goolsby elaborated on his reasons for opposing this week's rate cut in an interview, emphasizing that current inflation cannot be assumed to be temporary and more data is needed to confirm that inflation is declining. He believes that waiting until the first quarter of next year will give the Fed more confidence. ⑵ He explained that he is not "hawkish" on next year's interest rates; on the contrary, he is optimistic that rates will decline next year, but he is uneasy about "front-loading" easing policies at the current juncture. ⑶ Goolsby pointed out that prices are one of the main concerns for businesses and consumers regarding the economy, and inflation in the service sector before the government shutdown is also a concern. Although there are reasons to believe that inflation will decline next year, the Fed needs more certainty. ⑷ Regarding the labor market, he believes that various indicators are "quite stable," with low hiring and low layoffs, which does not suggest a cyclical downturn in the economy, and he expects the unemployment rate to remain broadly stable. ⑸ On interest rate forecasts, Goolsby stated that his expected rate cut in 2026 is lower than the median forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee. He expects signs of declining inflation to appear in the first quarter of next year. (6) Regarding the recent market focus on the independence of the Federal Reserve's personnel and policies, he insisted that the re-election process for regional Fed presidents is "very sound," and that those involved take their work seriously, which is the foundation of the Fed's independence. He also emphasized that restarting securities purchases is a technical operation to ensure interest rate control, not part of monetary policy.

21:49:02

Canada's annual rate of wholesale sales in October

Previous : 4% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.30%

Previous

21:48:31

Canada's annual rate of wholesale inventories in October

Previous : 6.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30%

Previous

21:38:56

Germany's current account for October was unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 186 Forecast : -

Published Value 147.98

Previous

21:32:07

Canada's wholesale inventory monthly rate for October

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

21:30:06

Canada's monthly building permit rate for October

Previous : 4.50% Forecast : -0.90%

Published Value 14.90%

Previous

21:30:05

Capacity utilization rate in Canada in the third quarter

Previous : 79.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 78.50%

Previous

21:30:03

Canada's wholesale sales monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -0.10%

加元

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

21:03:05

[The Fed's "Double Narrative": Cutting Rates to Protect Jobs, Saying Policy Remains Tight] ⑴ Philadelphia Fed President Paulson stated clearly on Friday that she is currently more concerned about the risks of a weakening labor market than the upside risks of inflation, and believes that this week's rate cut provides some protection against a deterioration in the job market. ⑵ On inflation, Paulson believes that the current federal funds rate level of 3.5% to 3.75%, coupled with the cumulative effect of previous tightening policies, means that monetary policy is "slightly tight" and should continue to suppress inflation. ⑶ She is relatively optimistic about a future slowdown in inflation, believing that the high inflation in 2025 is "mostly" driven by trade tariffs, and that inflation is "very likely" to decline next year as the impact of tariffs weakens. ⑷ Paulson described the current state of the labor market as "bending, but not yet collapsing," and pointed out that the Fed will have more information at the January FOMC meeting, allowing for a clearer assessment of the outlook and risks. (5) Her remarks outlined the dual logic behind the Fed’s current decisions: on the one hand, it uses preventative interest rate cuts to hedge against downside risks to the economy and employment, and on the other hand, it emphasizes that the policy stance remains tight in order to maintain its credibility in combating inflation, attempting to strike a balance between the two.

21:02:47

[Fed Hawks Rarely Draw Their Swords: Biggest Opposition After Rate Cut: Inflation Not Yet Eliminated, What's the Rush?] ⑴ Chicago Fed President Goolsby explained in detail on Friday his reasons for opposing this week's rate cut, arguing that the Fed should wait for more inflation data, especially given that prices remain a major concern for businesses and consumers. ⑵ Goolsby emphasized that inflation has been above target for four and a half years, and the process of controlling inflation has recently stalled. In this context, waiting is a more prudent approach and carries almost no additional risk. ⑶ He pointed out that there are currently few signs of a sharp deterioration in the labor market; it is only "slightly cooling." Therefore, the Fed can wait until early next year to obtain updated data before deciding whether to act. ⑷ Goolsby expressed concern about the root causes of the current high inflation, believing it may stem from tariffs and be temporary, but the danger lies in its potential to persist for a longer period. ⑸ Despite his opposition, he remains optimistic that if future data shows inflation returning to target, interest rates could still fall "significantly" next year, but he is concerned about cutting rates prematurely at this point. (6) This statement reveals the division within the Federal Reserve on the principle of “data dependence”: one side believes there is sufficient evidence to support interest rate cuts to prevent economic risks; the other side (represented by Goolsby) insists on seeing more conclusive evidence of inflation under control, highlighting that combating inflation remains a core priority for some policymakers.

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