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2026-09-16 Wednesday

2026-09-22

10:23:48

[Unexpected Rise in US Crude Oil Inventories Pressures Prices, Saudi Supply Concerns Temporarily Overshadowed] 1. International oil prices edged lower on Wednesday due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, while investors assessed the supply risks posed by the suspension of loading at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port. Brent crude futures fell 0.35% to $108.10 per barrel; WTI crude futures fell 1% to $104.80 per barrel. 2. In the previous trading session, both benchmark oil prices rose by more than $3, reaching their highest levels since May 19, mainly driven by supply concerns stemming from the suspension of loading at Yanbu port and the impact of Saudi Arabia's reduction in crude oil exports to Europe. 3. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories all increased in the week ending September 11, with crude oil inventories rising by 7.1 million barrels. A survey indicated that analysts had previously expected inventories to decrease by approximately 1.6 million barrels. Haitong Futures noted in a report that the unexpected rise in gasoline and diesel inventories put pressure on oil prices, but regional inventory accumulation did not change the tight fundamentals of the global crude oil market. 4. Oil trading and shipping sources said on Tuesday that Saudi Aramco has notified European customers that some crude oil shipments scheduled for September loading will be cancelled, and crude oil loading operations at Yanbu port on the Red Sea have also been suspended. The US Energy Secretary stated that crude oil transport through Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline should resume within days. However, sources interviewed gave differing estimates of the pipeline's downtime; one said repairs could take five to six weeks, while another indicated that the pipeline might resume partial transport sooner as repairs progress.

10:10:13

[YouGov Poll: Alternative for Germany (AfD) Has the Strongest Momentum, CDU/CSU Support Hits New Low, "Firewall" Stance Loosens] (1) YouGov released its poll results on the 15th, showing that the AfD is currently the strongest party in Germany; the CDU/CSU alliance, led by Chancellor Merz and its sister party CSU, has seen its support hit a new low. (2) This poll was conducted by YouGov, a UK-based company, from the 11th to the 14th. (3) The results show that the AfD's support rate is 29%, one percentage point higher than the previous survey in August; the CDU/CSU alliance's support rate is 18%, the worst performance for the party in the same poll, down two percentage points from the previous one. (4) The Green Party's support rate is 16%, up one percentage point from the previous one; the SPD, which governs in coalition with the CDU/CSU alliance, has a support rate of 13%, up one percentage point; the Left Party's support rate is 10%, down two percentage points; the FDP's support rate remains at 5%; and the support rate for the emerging Sara Wagenknecht coalition has risen to 4%. (5) In the survey, more than half of the respondents still considered the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to be a far-right party: 59% held this view, while 30% disagreed; the relevant data has remained almost unchanged since May 2025. (6) The poll also showed that Germans' stance on the so-called "firewall," namely the mainstream parties' refusal to cooperate with the AfD, has changed significantly: 51% of respondents believed that other parties should not completely rule out the possibility of cooperating with the AfD, higher than the 44% in the August survey; 40% supported maintaining the "firewall" stance, lower than the 46% in the August survey.

09:57:57

【Dow Jones records worst September start since 2008, oil prices, bond yields and AI concerns weigh on US stocks】 (1) Dow Jones market data shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its worst performance in the first 10 days of September since 2008 on Tuesday; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also recorded their worst September start since 2020. (2) Coincidentally, Tuesday marked the 18th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing. FactSet data shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 6% in September 2008, followed by a further plunge of more than 14% in October of that year. (3) It is not surprising that US stocks have struggled so far this month. September has historically been considered the worst month of the year for major US stock indices; Dow Jones market data shows that September is the worst month on average for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 indices, and the only calendar month in which all four indices have an average decline. (4) Mark Gibbens, chief investment officer at Gibbens Capital Management, told MarketWatch that September has historically been a poor month, so the current situation is not surprising. However, he pointed out that calendar factors alone cannot explain this month's sharp fluctuations; this time, rising oil prices and bond yields, as well as growing concerns about AI, are the main reasons. Given that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, US stocks may face further pain in the future.

09:35:03

[Argentina strongly opposes the UK's guidelines for business activities in the Falklands, saying it will use diplomatic, economic and legal means] (1) On the 15th, Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno announced a statement from the Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affairs through his personal social media, strongly opposing the guidelines issued by the British government for conducting business activities in the Falklands (known as the Falkland Islands in the UK). (2) The statement said that the Falklands and surrounding waters belong to Argentine territory, and the unilateral actions of the British government violate relevant UN resolutions. (3) The Argentine government will use all means, including diplomatic, economic and legal means, to hold those who illegally exploit the natural resources of the Falklands accountable; at the same time, Argentina is willing to resume bilateral negotiations with the UK to resolve the sovereignty dispute. (4) On the 15th, the British government issued the official guidelines "Conducting Business Activities in the Falklands", stating that the Argentine government has no right to exercise jurisdiction over companies and individuals conducting business activities in the Falklands and surrounding waters. (5) The British government stated that it supports the right of the residents of the Falklands to develop natural resources, including hydrocarbons, and to pursue their own economic interests. (6) The Argentine government has recently taken a hard line on the issue of sovereignty over the Falklands. Argentine President Milai delivered a national televised address on the evening of the 3rd, emphasizing that sanctions against foreign companies exploiting natural resources in the Falklands and surrounding disputed waters will be intensified; sanctions procedures have already been initiated against a total of 60 foreign companies and individuals.

09:00:34

[Hot News Recap: Mecca Issues First Security Alert, Houthi Attacks Shake the Middle East] 1. Saudi Arabia issued a security alert on Tuesday for several areas, including the holy city of Mecca and its second-largest city, Jeddah, before quickly lifting it. Saudi authorities did not immediately specify whether any projectiles landed, nor did any group claim responsibility for the attacks. This was the most widespread alert since the escalation of the conflict last week, and the first time an alert had been issued in Mecca since the start of the war. Mecca contains religious sites considered holy by all Muslims. 2. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, allied with Iran, announced several large-scale attacks on Saudi Arabia over the past week, including Monday's strike on an airbase, claiming it was in retaliation for airstrikes in Yemen. Saudi Arabia blamed another attack on Friday on an Iraqi-based pro-Iranian group that caused the Saudi East-West oil pipeline across the Arabian Desert to stop operating. US Energy Secretary Wright said on Tuesday that oil shipments through the pipeline were expected to resume within days. The Saudi-led military coalition said Monday's Houthi attack injured 13 civilians. 3. These Iranian-backed militants advanced rapidly along Yemen's west coast last week, eventually seizing an island at the entrance to the Red Sea. Officials from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, based in southern Yemen and opposing the Houthis, said that Saudi and Yemeni air forces intensified airstrikes against Houthi targets to halt their advance, including attacks near the Red Sea port of Mocha. However, Yemeni officials acknowledged that the Houthis now effectively control almost the entire western coast of Yemen's Red Sea region. One Yemeni official stated that the Houthis are under immense pressure while simultaneously increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia, further escalating missile and drone attacks. 4. The Middle East conflict has opened a new front, increasing Iran's leverage in its fight against the United States and further jeopardizing global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia's 1,200-kilometer-long east-west oil pipeline connects the country's Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea. The pipeline, a major route for Saudi oil exports, has been disrupted by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz over the past six months. After being attacked and shut down last Friday, traders said that a prolonged shutdown could cut off up to 4% of global oil supplies. Riyadh has not yet specified when the pipeline will resume operation, but Wright believes the recovery time "will be measured in days." Wright stated that, with US military assistance, Saudi Arabia is taking steps to transport more oil via routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. 5. The US, which bombed Houthi rebels for two consecutive months last year, now faces a dilemma: either stand idly by and risk a new threat to the global economy, or provide military support to Saudi Arabia, potentially dragging itself into another costly conflict.

08:51:15

[Six-Month Bill of the Iran War: Costs Continue to Rise, US Operations Against Iran Require an Additional $3 Billion Per Month] 1. A report released Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) states that the US war against Iran, now in its sixth month, has cost $38 billion to date, with an estimated additional $3 billion per month to come. The CBO's calculations show that the war is expected to increase the inflation rate by 0.5 percentage points in the first three months of 2027. This calculation includes expenditures up to August 1st and does not include the costs of recent attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US military facilities, nor the borrowing costs required for war financing. 2. The escalating war spending is putting pressure on US ammunition stocks and pushing up energy prices, raising concerns about the US's ability to respond to other potential conflicts. The CBO states that most of the costs come from the rapid depletion of ammunition stocks, estimating that it could take the US up to five years to replenish its reserves. Media reports in August indicated that the US had used "almost all" of its long-range precision-guided missiles in the war. 3. White House spokesman Kelly stated that Trump's attack on Iran was a "decisive action" to prevent Tehran from harming American personnel or interests, and that the U.S. military had "more than enough ammunition and stockpiles." Pentagon chief spokesman Parnell also disputed the report's conclusions regarding ammunition shortages, stating, "We have all the resources we need to launch an attack at the time and place chosen by the president." 4. The CBO stated that critical ammunition shortages could weaken the Pentagon's ability to respond to other major conflicts. The Pentagon Inspector General reported this week that Iran had damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings at U.S. military bases in the Middle East, as well as aircraft including fighter jets, refueling aircraft, and drones. 5. This investigation was conducted at the request of House Budget Committee senior Democrat Boyle. In a statement, Boyle said the war has claimed the lives of brave American service members and cost taxpayers tens of billions of dollars, with expenditures continuing to rise. Eighteen American service members have already died in the war against Iran. The CBO also noted that the Department of Defense has not cooperated with the work of congressional financial auditors.

08:38:51

Australia's Westpac Leading Index MoM, August

Previous : 0.03 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.04

Previous

08:22:59

[AI Safety Warnings Spark Legislative Frenzy, But Congress Lacking Time and Deeply Divided, Passage Unlikely This Year] (1) Following a researcher's warning about AI technology that went viral, lawmakers from both parties have put forward a large number of proposals to try to prevent the potential negative impacts of AI, while President Trump has doubled down on his lenient stance on AI regulation. (2) With less than two months left on the legislative schedule, the chances of the AI safety bill passing both houses and being signed by the president at the last minute are almost zero. (3) Senator Rick Scott (Republican of Florida) told The Hill on Tuesday, "Do you think we (Congress) are capable of regulating AI? We can't even pass a budget, do you think we can come up with a great AI bill?" He added, "We won't pass a smart AI bill in three weeks, or this year." (4) Dozens of bills regulating the safety elements of AI have been introduced in the past 18 months, but most remain stalled due to conflicting priorities among parties on AI and the data centers that power it. (5) These policy debates resurfaced this week after 27-year-old AI researcher Jacob Coxon gained attention for claiming that AI labs believe the technology "could kill humans," yet are still racing toward superintelligence regardless. (6) One of the last-minute proposals came from Republican Senator John Kennedy (Louisiana), which would require AI companies to embed so-called "kill switches" in their models as a safety measure, allowing them to pause or shut down certain models. (7) Other lawmakers, such as Senator Ruben Gallego (Democrat of Arizona), suggested creating a new committee to "restrain" AI, but industry experts believe this would only further delay an already seemingly daunting task.

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