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Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

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2025-12-13 Saturday

2025-12-20

08:00:09

Position Report: Market sentiment undergoes a dramatic shift, the battle over the US Treasury yield curve remains unresolved, and commodity longs and shorts rapidly switch roles. Details>

07:53:36

[Undercurrents in the Crude Oil Market: Speculators Increase Bearish Bets Against the Trend] ⑴ The latest CFTC positioning data shows that in the week ending November 18, "managed funds," mainly hedge funds, increased their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. Their combined net short positions in New York and London contracts increased by 9,479 contracts, reaching -30,030 contracts. ⑵ Specifically, in WTI crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange, managed funds' net positions turned to a net short of 3,321 contracts, a decrease of 6,499 long contracts or an increase of the same amount of short contracts compared to the previous week. ⑶ In contrast to the bearish sentiment of speculators, the "producers/traders/processors/users" group (who typically engage in commercial hedging) increased their net long positions by 18,969 contracts to 326,716 contracts, indicating that the spot market players are more inclined to sell hedges or reduce buy hedges at the current level. ⑷ In the refined oil market, sentiment is diverging. Managed funds significantly increased their net long positions in RBOB gasoline futures and options by 22,130 contracts to 100,208 contracts, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook for gasoline; while their net long positions in heating oil remained largely unchanged. (5) Total open interest (open contracts) saw a significant decline, with total open interest in WTI crude oil on NYMEX and ICE decreasing by 189,939 contracts to 3,157,103 contracts. This may indicate that some funds exited the market to observe during price fluctuations or consolidated their positions. (6) The increasingly divergent positions of speculative funds and industrial capital in crude oil reflect a profound disagreement in the market regarding supply and demand prospects: speculators may be more concerned about macroeconomic demand and inventory pressure, while industrial players may be managing risk based on costs or forward curves.

07:52:24

[Commodity Markets Experience Dramatic Shifts: Speculators Cover Short Positions, Signaling a Bull Market in Agricultural Products?] ⑴ The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows significant changes in the positions of large speculators (non-commercial traders) in key agricultural futures markets during the week ending November 18, signaling a strong shift in market sentiment. ⑵ Speculators drastically reduced their net short positions in Chicago corn futures by 82,645 contracts, bringing the total net short position down to 79,478 contracts; they also reduced their net short positions in wheat by 5,097 contracts to 55,786 contracts. ⑶ In stark contrast to grains, speculators actively went long in soybean futures, increasing their net long positions by 29,884 contracts to a total net long position of 163,716 contracts, indicating a particularly strong bullish sentiment towards the oilseed sector. (4) Categorized data shows that "managed funds" (usually commodity funds) significantly increased their net long positions in corn, soybean, and soybean meal futures, adding 77,649, 35,182, and 29,285 contracts respectively. This is the main force driving the bullish market sentiment. (5) At the same time, the "producers/traders" group, representing commercial hedging forces, maintained and expanded their net short positions in corn, soybeans, and other commodities. This contrasts with the bullish sentiment of speculators, reflecting the divergence of expectations between the spot industry and financial capital. (6) The large-scale adjustment of speculators' positions, especially the significant short covering in the corn market and the aggressive increase in soybean long positions, may indicate that after a period of consolidation, market funds are reassessing the fundamental gaps and upside risks in agricultural products, particularly oilseeds and grains.

07:52:11

[The battle between bulls and bears intensifies, with institutions and speculators engaging in a "battle of offense and defense"] ⑴ Data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed that in the week ending November 18, equity fund managers slightly increased their net long positions in S&P 500 futures by 3,929 contracts to 907,446 contracts. ⑵ Meanwhile, equity speculators (often considered a contrarian or trend-following force in the market) significantly reduced their net short positions by 69,368 contracts to 354,262 contracts. ⑶ In terms of specific positions, fund managers held a total of 1,132,009 long contracts and 224,563 short contracts, with a large net long position, indicating that professional institutions maintain a bullish view on the overall outlook for U.S. stocks. (4) In contrast, speculators held 184,109 long positions and 538,371 short positions. Although the net short position decreased significantly, it still maintained a considerable net short position, indicating that their cautious or bearish sentiment, while easing, had not reversed. (5) The above position changes reveal a significant divergence among market participants: "smart money," represented by fund managers, firmly held long positions while slightly increasing their holdings, while trading desks, represented by speculators, were forced or actively covered a large number of short positions during the market rise, which may have alleviated some selling pressure for the market to continue rising.

07:43:03

NYMEX Palladium inventory changes in the US on December 11th - Daily

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

07:43:01

NYMEX palladium inventory in the US on December 11th - Updated Daily

Previous : 1892.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 1892.30

07:42:56

NYMEX platinum inventory changes in the United States on December 11th - Daily

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

07:42:53

NYMEX platinum inventory in the US on December 11th - Updated Daily

Previous : 6145.61 Forecast : -

Published Value 6145.61

07:42:38

COMEX silver inventory changes in the US on December 11th - Daily

Previous : -5980.58 Forecast : -

Published Value -24573.43

07:42:34

U.S. COMEX Silver inventories as of December 11 - Updated Daily

Previous : 4558171.17 Forecast : -

Published Value 4533597.74

07:42:27

COMEX gold inventory changes in the US on December 11th - Daily

Previous : 174.26 Forecast : -

Published Value -1478.53

07:42:22

COMEX gold inventory in the US on December 11th - Updated Daily

Previous : 361156.06 Forecast : -

Published Value 359677.52

07:40:37

SPDR Gold position changes in the US on December 12th - Daily

Previous : 4.01 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.29

07:40:32

SPDR Gold positions in the US on December 12th - Updated Daily

Previous : 1050.83 Forecast : -

Published Value 1053.12

07:40:17

iShares Silver position changes in the US on December 12th - Daily

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 19.74

07:40:10

iShares Silver Holdings in the US on December 12th - Updated Daily

Previous : 16083.16 Forecast : -

Published Value 16102.90

07:39:34

iShares Gold position changes in the US on December 12th - Daily

Previous : 0.23 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.93

07:39:19

iShares Gold Holdings in the US on December 12th - Updated Daily

Previous : 486.49 Forecast : -

Published Value 488.42

05:59:55

The Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) is projected to have capital expenditures between 260 million and 350 million reais by 2026.

05:49:24

On Friday (December 12), spot gold rose 0.53% to $4,302.68 per ounce in late New York trading, up 2.49% for the week. It was roughly flat from Monday to Wednesday (before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate cut and Treasury bill purchases), then continued to rise but fell significantly on Friday. Spot gold rose approximately 2.5% for the week. COMEX gold futures rose 0.48% to $4,333.60 per ounce, up 2.14% for the week, having reached a high of $4,387.80 on Friday.

05:47:13

On December 12 local time, the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement issued a statement expressing serious concern over the recent escalation of tensions in the Caribbean region. The statement pointed out that the recent interception and seizure of oil tankers, as well as the unilateral declaration by certain parties to "close" Venezuelan airspace, seriously violate international law and the relevant principles of the UN Charter. The Coordinating Bureau firmly opposes these actions, stating that they occur against the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Caribbean region and will only further exacerbate the already fragile situation.

05:46:06

Startup OpenEvidence is raising $250 million in equity funding, which will value the company at $12 billion.

05:39:51

Spot silver has just touched the $62.00/ounce mark, with the latest price at $62.00/ounce, a daily drop of 2.43%; the latest price for the COMEX silver futures main contract is $62.17/ounce, a daily drop of 3.75%.

05:38:41

Spot silver just touched the $62.00/ounce mark and is currently trading at $62.00/ounce, down 2.43% on the day; COMEX silver futures are currently trading at $62.17/ounce, down 3.75% on the day.

05:37:45

Market sources indicate that the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) will stop using its payroll system to deduct union dues from the salaries of Transportation Security Officers (TSOs).

05:34:38

The letter indicates that Spain urged the EU not to weaken the 2035 ban on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles.

05:34:35

Oracle bonds are trading like junk bonds, with spreads between their bonds and CDSs surging and losses widening further after the company released its quarterly earnings report earlier this week. Analysis shows that investors who bought $18 billion in high-grade bonds issued by Oracle last September, bonds issued as the company ramped up spending on artificial intelligence (AI) projects, are now facing paper losses totaling approximately $1.35 billion.

05:33:29

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates this week was not easy, but she ultimately supported the move. In a LinkedIn post, she stated that "real wage growth stems from a long-term, stable economic expansion, which is still in its relatively early stages." She also pointed out that the Fed must continue to keep inflation at its 2% target level while carefully protecting the labor market, emphasizing that "overly tight policies could cause unnecessary harm to American households, leaving them facing both inflation above target and a weak labor market."

05:28:15

UBS raised its target price for Lululemon from $183.00 to $206.00 per share.

05:22:41

Market sources indicate that the CEO of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has sold 125,000 shares of AMD stock.

05:20:29

U.S. prosecutors are investigating a fundraising request made by First Brands in the final moments before its collapse.

05:17:19

According to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a court hearing will be held on April 7, 2026, to settle a lawsuit related to Meta's Facebook subsidiary.

05:16:16

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, the information technology/technology sector fell 2.87%, the energy sector fell 0.93%, and the telecommunications sector fell 0.69%.

05:16:13

The FTSE A50 futures index closed down 0.45% at 15,165 points in overnight trading.

05:16:11

U.S. bank deposits fell to $18.479 trillion from $18.528 trillion the previous week.

05:15:02

S&P affirmed Austria's rating at 'AA', while downgrading its outlook to negative.

05:11:51

Air Transat pilots are about to vote on a provisional contract that includes a pay rise of up to 67%.

05:10:42

International oil prices fell slightly on the 12th. By the close of trading that day, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for January 2026 delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16 cents to settle at $57.44 per barrel, a decrease of 0.28%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for February delivery on the London ICE Futures Exchange also fell 16 cents to settle at $61.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.26%.

05:08:36

Federal Reserve's Daly stated that risks to employment and inflation remain.

05:06:28

On Friday, December 12, the Bloomberg Electric Vehicle Price Return Index rose 1.00% to 3478.36 points. The index rose 1.49% this week, with significant gains on Monday and Friday.

05:05:24

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary plans to hand over his position to a "more amiable" successor by 2035.

05:04:20

The news that Ryanair CEO O'Reilly plans to step down within 5 to 10 years was released by O'Reilly.

05:04:18

Citigroup raised its target price for Lululemon from $190 to $210 per share.

05:03:14

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Mary Daly said she supports the decision to vote on a rate cut at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

05:02:06

Unofficial data shows that the S&P 500 fell 0.63% and the Nasdaq fell 1.62% this week, while the Dow Jones rose 1.05%.

05:00:00

Mail service from Thailand has been suspended by the United States Postal Service.

04:57:54

Federal Reserve Chairman Daly stated that although inflation is currently too high, the Fed cannot allow the job market to fall into distress.

04:57:52

Federal Reserve Chairman Daly stated that interest rate cuts would allow the Fed to achieve its two main objectives.

04:56:48

Federal Reserve Chairman Daly stated that the Fed's decision this week will not be easy.

04:56:47

Barclays raised its target price for Lululemon from $180 to $189 per share.

04:56:45

Federal Reserve Chairman Daly stated that the Fed's two missions had previously conflicted, but he believes that cutting interest rates was the right choice.

04:55:41

CNBC reports that Trump has stated Kevin Warsh is his top choice among candidates for Federal Reserve Chair.

04:54:37

According to sources, the Agnelli family-owned Exor Group opposes the sale of Juventus Football Club.

04:52:30

News from the New York close on Friday (December 12) showed that the euro rose more than 0.6% this week, and the Swiss franc rose 1.1%. The euro rose 0.04% against the US dollar to 1.1742, a cumulative increase of 0.86% for the week, continuing its upward trend since December 11 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement on December 10. The pound rose 0.31% against the US dollar to 1.3370 this week, while the US dollar fell 1.10% against the Swiss franc to 0.7959. Among commodity currency pairs, the Australian dollar rose 0.18% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.47%, and the US dollar fell 0.36% against the Canadian dollar; the Swedish krona rose 1.39% against the US dollar, the Norwegian krone fell 0.24%, and the Danish krone rose 0.84%; the Polish zloty rose 0.94% against the US dollar, and the Hungarian forint fell 0.23%.

04:52:21

AMICUS shares surged as much as 11%, marking their biggest gain since July.

04:51:16

According to reports, President Trump favors either former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to head the Fed next year. In an interview in the Oval Office on Friday, he stated that Warsh was his first choice, saying, "There are two Kevins, and I think they are both excellent. Of course, there are several other candidates who are also excellent." Hassett has become increasingly seen as the frontrunner after Trump repeatedly hinted at his choice of Fed chair in recent weeks. However, Trump's latest statement indicates that Warsh remains firmly in the running. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Trump met with Warsh at the White House on Wednesday for 45 minutes and pressured him, asking if he could guarantee support for interest rate cuts if elected. In an interview, Trump confirmed this, stating, "He thinks we have to cut rates, and everyone I've spoken to thinks so." Trump also said he believes the next Federal Reserve chairman should consult him when setting interest rate policy, saying, "We don't usually do that anymore, but it used to be standard practice, and it should be. It doesn't mean he has to do exactly what I say, but my opinion is valuable and should be heard." When asked about his desired interest rate level a year from now, Trump said, "1%, maybe even lower," adding that a rate cut would help the U.S. Treasury reduce the financing costs of its $30 trillion government debt, and that "we should have the lowest interest rates in the world."

04:47:01

Trump stated that the next Federal Reserve chairman should communicate with him regarding interest rates.

04:45:58

Market sources indicate that Trump is inclined to nominate Warsh or Hassett to head the Federal Reserve.

04:44:53

Adecoagro SA's offer for a 50% stake in YPF SA, Argentina's top nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer, will be accepted, and YPF SA will sell that stake.

04:39:40

According to sources familiar with the matter at the holding company Exor, Juventus will not be sold.

04:38:31

The US dollar index rose on December 12th, with the index measuring the dollar against six major currencies gaining 0.05% to close at 98.397 in late trading. At the close of trading in New York, the euro was at $1.1740, essentially unchanged from the previous session; the pound sterling was at $1.3366, down from $1.3389; the dollar was at 155.90 yen, up from 155.61 yen; the dollar was at 0.7959 Swiss francs, up from 0.7951 Swiss francs; the dollar was at 1.3766 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3779 Canadian dollars; and the dollar was at 9.2732 Swedish krona, up from 9.2542 Swedish krona.

04:34:15

Chevron has reportedly extended its oil license in Venezuela.

04:33:11

According to data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and ICE, in the week ending November 18, cotton speculators reduced their net short positions by 4,183 contracts to 71,478 contracts; cocoa futures speculators switched to holding net short positions of 6,472 contracts, a decrease of 8,572 contracts; raw sugar speculators reduced their net short positions by 11,860 contracts to 201,910 contracts; and coffee speculators reduced their net long positions by 4,400 contracts to 24,619 contracts.

04:33:07

On Friday, December 12, in late New York trading, the US dollar rose 0.16% against the Japanese yen to 155.83 yen, a cumulative increase of 0.32% for the week, with the overall trading range between 154.90 and 156.95 yen. For the week, the euro rose 1.19% against the yen to 182.96 yen, and the pound rose 0.60% against the yen to 208.307 yen.

04:32:44

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1730.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1729.71/ounce, up 3.50% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1756.8/ounce, up 2.54% on the day.

04:32:34

Spot gold has just broken through the $4290.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4288.84/ounce, up 0.22% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4321.90/ounce, up 0.21% on the day.

04:32:01

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, speculators increased their net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) by 10,888 contracts, reaching 67,511 contracts.

04:31:58

According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in U.S. ultra-long-term Treasury futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) by 32,218 contracts to 285,683 contracts.

04:31:56

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in U.S. 5-year Treasury futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) by 81,111 contracts to 2,382,013 contracts, reduced their net short positions in U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 67,110 contracts to 753,697 contracts, and increased their net short positions in U.S. 2-year Treasury futures by 54,105 contracts to 1,345,279 contracts.

04:31:56

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, natural gas speculators reduced their net long positions by 18,298 contracts to 200,935 contracts across the four major markets: the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

04:31:54

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just broken through the 48,400.00 mark, currently trading at 48,399.93, down 0.62% on the day.

04:30:47

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, oil speculators increased their net short positions in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil by 9,479 contracts, reaching 30,030 contracts.

04:29:35

According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending November 18, 2025, the net short position of the Swiss franc was 32,185 contracts, the net short position of the British pound was 79,257 contracts, the net long position of the euro was 99,007 contracts, and the net long position of the Japanese yen was 31,157 contracts.

04:28:30

According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending November 18, equity fund managers increased their net long positions in the CME S&P 500 by 3,929 contracts, bringing the total to 907,446 contracts.

04:28:27

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, equity fund speculators reduced their net short positions in the CME S&P 500 by 69,368 contracts to 354,262 contracts.

04:28:26

Sources have revealed that Argentina's YPF company intends to sell its fertilizer joint venture.

04:28:24

On Friday (December 12), the US dollar indices showed mixed performance in late New York trading. The ICE US Dollar Index was roughly flat at 98.353, down 0.63% for the week, trading between 99.312 and 98.134, marking its third consecutive week of decline and the longest losing streak since the week of August 22. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose 0.03% to 1206.83, down 0.46% for the week, trading between 1215.70 and 1204.45, also marking its third consecutive week of decline and the longest losing streak since the end of August.

04:28:19

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, gold speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) reduced their net long positions by 7,145 contracts to 96,685 contracts; silver futures speculators reduced their net long positions by 2,607 contracts to 20,933 contracts.

04:28:17

Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that in the week ending November 18, speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) reduced their net long positions in copper futures by 2,662 contracts, bringing them down to 62,839 contracts.

04:26:43

The Nasdaq index has just broken through the 23,200.00 mark, currently trading at 23,199.60, down 1.67% on the day.

04:26:10

Sources and shipping data indicate that no large oil tankers have set sail from Venezuela since the U.S. seized a tanker on Wednesday, and the country's oil exports have fallen to their lowest levels.

04:26:08

Sources revealed that since the US seized the oil tanker, only tankers chartered by Chevron have set sail from Venezuela carrying crude oil.

04:25:01

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has completed its fifth review of the Papua New Guinea Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

04:25:00

The International Monetary Fund immediately disbursed US$165 million to Papua New Guinea under its Extended Credit Facility/Extended Fund Facility, and approximately US$54 million under its Resilience and Sustainability Trust Facility.

04:24:58

According to Sportico, the United States Tennis Association (USTA) is close to reaching an agreement to appoint Craig Terry as its next CEO.

04:23:52

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it also allowed the release of 79.182 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately US$110 million) for Jordan under the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RSF).

04:22:48

Southwest Airlines shares rose 1.2% to $41.21, hitting a new all-time high.

04:22:47

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund has completed its fourth assessment of the Extended Fund Loan Arrangement for Jordan and its first assessment of the Resilience and Sustainability Loan Arrangement.

04:22:46

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved Jordan's immediate purchase of assets worth approximately $130 million.

04:17:26

Ascondis Pharmaceuticals' ADR surged and hit an intraday high, rising by 7%.

04:16:22

Bunge Global's stock price quickly fell to an intraday low, dropping by 1.8%.

04:13:11

A Buckingham Palace spokesperson, speaking about the King's cancer treatment, said His Majesty is responding very well to the treatment, and his doctors have recommended that the next steps be preventative.

04:10:01

The industrial sector received an upgrade from "neutral" to "attractive" from Truist Securities.

04:09:59

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) stated that extending cross-margining to the client level could improve capital efficiency, thereby enhancing the liquidity and robustness of the U.S. Treasury market.

04:07:52

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved a proposed order granting the CME Group and Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC) a limited exemption to allow them to offer existing cross-market margin arrangements to certain clients.

04:06:48

Colombian government negotiators stated that any peace agreement must include provisions for the imprisonment of leaders of the "Gulf Family" criminal gangs.

04:05:44

The United States has requested that Mexico conduct an inspection of Mondelez's factory in Mexico.

04:05:11

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,300.00/ounce mark, last trading at $4,300.08/ounce, up 0.48% on the day; COMEX gold futures are last trading at $4,332.00/ounce, up 0.44% on the day.

04:04:40

The International Monetary Fund has approved a review project in Gambia, and a loan of US$38.15 million is about to be disbursed.

04:04:38

King Charles stated that he believes the cost of cancer treatment can be reduced.

43

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4338.22	5.61 (0.13%)
XAG	67.126	1.664 (2.54%)
CONC	56.54	0.54 (0.96%)
OILC	60.48	0.76 (1.28%)
USD	98.717	0.277 (0.28%)
EURUSD	1.1707	-0.0014 (-0.12%)
GBPUSD	1.3375	-0.0004 (-0.03%)
USDCNH	7.0341	0.0029 (0.04%)

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