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2025-07-28 Monday

2025-08-02

19:39:43

[Hungarian Foreign Minister: The EU-US agreement is not good for Europe, the EU needs new leadership] Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó said that the signing of the EU-US trade agreement has caused losses to the European economy and once again proved that the EU needs new leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump reached a trade agreement on July 27, according to which almost all EU exports to the United States will now be subject to a 15% tariff. In addition, the EU must purchase nuclear fuel and weapons from the United States. Szijjártó wrote on the social network X: "What happened in Scotland is another sign that the EU needs new leadership. Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission has caused serious damage to the European economy, and her mismanagement of tariff policy has exacerbated this loss."

19:34:29

[Temperatures in many parts of Iraq are off the charts, with the highest temperatures exceeding 50°C in more than two-thirds of the country's provinces] According to the Iraqi Meteorological Department, on July 28, local time, the highest temperatures in 13 of Iraq's 18 provinces exceeded 50 degrees Celsius. Affected by the continued high temperatures recently, many provinces in Iraq have announced the suspension of government offices or shortened working hours. It is reported that this round of high temperature weather will continue, and the meteorological department reminds the public to avoid going out during high temperature periods as much as possible and take necessary measures to prevent heatstroke and cool down.

19:34:11

[15% tariff "boots landed", details of the EU-US trade agreement exposed, which industries are welcome to benefit? ] ⑴ The United States and the European Union reached a framework trade agreement, putting an end to the long-standing trade uncertainty. ⑵ The agreement stipulates that most EU goods, including automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, will be subject to a 15% tariff, which is lower than the previously threatened 30%. ⑶ In some areas, the two sides reached a zero-tariff agreement, including aircraft and their parts, certain chemicals and semiconductor equipment. ⑷ Although the agreement sets a maximum tariff rate of 15% for most goods, the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products will remain, but the EU said it may be replaced by a quota system in the future. ⑸ In the agreement, the EU promised to make up to $600 billion in private investments in the United States during Trump's term and promised to purchase $750 billion in strategic goods. ⑹ These details provide clear guidance for the market, but there are still some goods such as wine and spirits. Tariff details have not yet been determined. ⑺ Market traders should pay attention to the specific tariff rates of different industries to assess the impact of the agreement on their respective fields.

19:33:12

USTR Greer: Trump is more concerned about making a good deal than a quick one

19:32:24

USTR official Greer talks about India-US trade: continue to communicate with Indian counterparts, more negotiations are needed

19:31:43

[Inflation expectations slightly reduced, Brazilian economists: GDP growth rate in 2025 may remain at 2.23%] ⑴ The latest survey of the Central Bank of Brazil shows that economists have slightly adjusted their forecasts for Brazil's economic outlook. ⑵ The annual IPCA inflation index forecast for 2025 has slightly decreased from 5.10% to 5.09%, while the inflation forecast for 2026 has also decreased from 4.45% to 4.44%. ⑶ In addition, the Selic interest rate forecast for the end of 2025 remains unchanged at 15.00%, and the interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 also remains unchanged at 12.50%. ⑷ In terms of economic growth, the GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 2.23%, while the growth forecast for 2026 has slightly increased from 1.88% to 1.89%. ⑸ In terms of exchange rate, economists' forecast for the Brazilian real exchange rate at the end of 2025 has decreased from 5.65 to 5.60, while the forecast for the end of 2026 remains unchanged at 5.70. ⑹ Overall, Brazilian economists' expectations for inflation and interest rates remain stable, while their views on economic growth and the real exchange rate are slightly optimistic.

19:31:10

Brazil's monthly rate of bank loans in June

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50%

19:28:18

The main Nymex crude oil futures contract has just broken through the $66.00/barrel mark and is currently trading at $66.01/barrel, up 1.30% on the day.

19:24:09

[Is the UK public sector productivity showing a "false" recovery? The actual level is still less than 8% before the epidemic] ⑴ According to the data from the UK National Statistics Office (ONS), the UK public sector productivity increased by 1.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the fastest growth rate in two years. ⑵ This figure is higher than the annual growth rate of 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the productivity growth rate for the whole year of 2024 has also been revised up from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.1%. ⑶ Despite the improvement, public sector productivity is still 4.2% lower than before the epidemic, among which the productivity in the medical service sector is nearly 9% lower than in 2019, returning to the level of 2012. ⑷ This means that the British people need to pay more taxes to get the same public services as before the epidemic. ⑸ This also exacerbates the budget challenges facing the British government and may lead to public dissatisfaction with the main political parties. ⑹ ONS pointed out that it is difficult to measure the productivity of the public sector, and the data is still in a "developmental" state and may be revised in the future. ⑺ The market’s focus should be on whether long-term productivity can return to pre-epidemic levels rather than a short-term rebound.

19:22:07

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1,410.00/ounce mark and is currently trading at $1,409.79/ounce, up 1.04% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract is currently trading at $1,455.2/ounce, up 2.28% on the day.

19:19:31

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: No intention to change the direction of staying. We had an in-depth discussion for four hours.

19:17:33

[As the RBA's expectations of rate cuts rise, the Australian dollar bulls are "disbanded", and the next target is the 0.65 mark? ] ⑴ Against the backdrop of stronger US assets and rising US dollar and US bond yields, the Australian dollar's bullish rebound against the US dollar was frustrated. ⑵ The Australian dollar was sold off after rebounding to 0.6587 overnight, falling to 0.6516 during the European trading session and opening at 0.6530 near the New York session, down 0.55%. ⑶ Technically, the Australian dollar has fallen below the 10-day and 21-day moving averages against the US dollar. ⑷ The momentum indicator RSI is declining and forming an inverted hammer pattern at the daily level. These signals are bearish. ⑸ In terms of commodities, the decline in copper and iron ore prices also weighed on the Australian dollar. ⑹ The market's focus will turn to the US employment report and the Federal Reserve meeting to be released later this week. ⑺ These events may provide new guidance for the future trend of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and traders need to be vigilant to potential fluctuations.

19:16:05

Palm oil bears are "pressing on step by step"! With production rising and external weakness, can the bulls hold their line? Details>

19:15:49

Technical analysis: Gold sends bearish signal, breaks below symmetrical triangle pattern Details>

19:04:21

[On the eve of the "storm" of economic data week, Texas manufacturing data has become the focus, and the Fed meeting is full of mysteries? ] ⑴ This week is a week of intensive release of Fed meetings and financial reports, but Monday will usher in two relatively minor economic data. ⑵ Among them, the second quarter housing vacancy rate report will be released at 22:00 Beijing time. ⑶ Another data that has attracted much attention is the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey released at 22:30. ⑷ Although the Dallas Fed index is usually not highly concerned, its data has become particularly important because the region is greatly affected by Trump's tariff remarks and immigration policies. ⑸ Last month, the index was -12.7. Previously, the three regional Fed surveys showed that the situation had improved, but the Richmond Fed index and preliminary national PMI data were weak, so the Dallas Fed index may have a variety of results. ⑹ In addition, the U.S. Treasury will conduct a series of Treasury auctions on Monday, with a total amount of up to 294 billion US dollars. ⑺ On the eve of the Fed meeting, these data and events will provide important references for the market

19:04:05

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1,420.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1,420.38/ounce, up 1.79% on the day; the main Nymex platinum futures contract is currently trading at $1,460.9/ounce, up 2.68% on the day;

18:57:11

[The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters launches a level 4 emergency response for flood control and typhoon prevention in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang] At 14:00 on July 28, the center of this year's No. 8 typhoon "Bamboo Grass" (tropical storm level) was located on the ocean about 700 kilometers east-southeast of Zhoushan City, Zhejiang Province. The maximum wind force near the center was level 8. It is expected that "Bamboo Grass" will enter the East China Sea in a northwesterly direction and slowly increase in intensity. Affected by the typhoon, from July 28 to 31, parts of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang will have heavy to torrential rains, and torrential rains in some areas. According to the "National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan" and relevant regulations, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a level 4 emergency response for flood control and typhoon prevention in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 16:00 on July 28. The Office of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters sent a working group to Zhejiang to assist in guiding flood control and typhoon prevention work

18:55:52

Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez: I support the US-EU tariff agreement, but I am not enthusiastic about the content of the agreement

18:51:57

[Mercedes-Benz speaks out in support of the agreement, 15% tariff is a "good thing", is the German auto industry relieved? ] ⑴ Mercedes-Benz issued a statement on Monday welcoming the trade agreement reached between the United States and Europe. ⑵ The company believes that the reduction in US import tariffs is a "relief" for the German auto industry compared to maintaining the status quo. ⑶ Although the agreement imposes a 15% import tariff on EU goods, it brings certainty to the market and avoids a more destructive trade war. ⑷ Mercedes-Benz called on the EU and the United States to continue dialogue to further reduce trade barriers. ⑸ This position highlights the difficulties faced by German automakers in the current trade environment and their strong demand for a stable and predictable trading environment. ⑹ The conclusion of the agreement is seen as a positive signal and provides the industry with a breathing space, but there are still more challenges to overcome in the future

18:50:48

[The 150 mark is in danger, short bets on USD/JPY are approaching 10 billion US dollars, and the long-short decisive battle is about to start? ] ⑴ Market data shows that traders' short positions betting on the decline of USD/JPY have reached nearly 10 billion US dollars. ⑵ Large-scale short selling began in February this year, when the USD/JPY exchange rate hovered around 152. ⑶ Technically, the midpoint of the decline in 2025 is 149.38, while the 200-day moving average is 149.63. ⑷ The peak of the upper track of the 20-day Bollinger Band is 149.84, which provides room for further rise in the exchange rate. ⑸ The focus of the market is on the 150 mark, which may trigger short covering once it is broken. ⑹ If the USD/JPY rises above 152, it may trigger a larger-scale short squeeze, pushing the exchange rate sharply higher. ⑺ This data shows that the market bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce game at key points, and the future trend is full of uncertainty.

18:48:09

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will hold a meeting at 21:00 Beijing time on Monday

18:47:16

[The Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red meteorological warning for flash flood disasters at 18:00 on July 28] The Ministry of Water Resources and the China Meteorological Administration jointly issued a red meteorological warning for flash flood disasters at 18:00 on July 28: It is expected that from 20:00 on July 28 to 20:00 on July 29, there is a high possibility of flash flood disasters in parts of eastern Beijing, northern Tianjin, central and northeastern Hebei, northeastern Inner Mongolia, western Liaoning, western Heilongjiang and other places (orange warning). Among them, there is a high possibility of flash flood disasters in local areas of eastern Beijing, northern Tianjin, and northeastern Hebei (red warning).

18:46:58

[Li Chunlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, held a video conference with Nasser, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia] On the afternoon of July 24, Li Chunlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, held a video conference with Nasser, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on deepening the China-Saudi Arabia High-Level Committee to jointly build the "Belt and Road", major investment cooperation projects and various practical cooperation under the framework of the Energy Subcommittee. Li Chunlin expressed his willingness to work with the Saudi side to implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, and on the basis of consolidating the progress of cooperation achieved under the framework of the Subcommittee, actively expand cooperation in emerging fields, promote the Subcommittee to achieve more practical cooperation results, and contribute to promoting the deepening and solidification of the China-Saudi Arabia comprehensive strategic partnership.

18:30:17

India's cumulative industrial output year-on-year rate for the fiscal year June - from April to the current cycle month

Previous : 1.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 2%

18:30:15

India's manufacturing output monthly rate in June

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

18:30:13

India's annual rate of industrial output in June

Previous : 1.20% Forecast : 2%

Published Value 1.50%

18:24:08

【Malaysian palm oil spot prices fell across the board due to weak demand, and market confidence was dampened】 ⑴ Malaysian palm oil spot prices fell across the board on Monday. ⑵ The August offer price of refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil fell by US$7.50 to US$1,035 per ton. ⑶ Similarly, the August offer price of refined palm olein also fell by US$7.50 to US$1,040 per ton. ⑷ The spot offer price of crude palm oil fell by RM30 to RM4,200 per ton. ⑸ The August offer price of palm kernel oil fell by RM2 to RM448 per picoliter. ⑹ The general decline in prices reflects weak market demand and inactive trading activities. ⑺ Market traders need to pay attention to whether the price decline will trigger more selling or attract buyers at low prices.

18:23:32

【Demand is weak, but Asian naphtha refining margins have risen instead of falling. What is the mystery behind this?】 ⑴ Asian naphtha refining margins rose slightly on Monday to $61.97 per ton, up from $58.57 on the previous trading day. ⑵ The reason for the increase in margins is that despite the weakening crude oil prices, the spread structure between naphtha's spot and near-month contracts has narrowed to zero, indicating that market expectations have improved. ⑶ In contrast, the gasoline cracking spread remained stable at about $7 per barrel. ⑷ India's crude oil imports in June fell 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February, reflecting weak demand. ⑸ At the same time, Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in September for the second consecutive month, which may put pressure on the supply side. ⑹ Trading activity in the market as a whole remains light, and although naphtha margins have improved, the gasoline and naphtha spot markets lack strong momentum. ⑺ This divergence suggests that despite weak macro demand, some market participants may be looking for arbitrage opportunities

18:23:15

[Historical low! US-EU trade agreement boosts confidence, eurozone junk bond default risk hits three-year low] ⑴ After the United States and the European Union reached a trade agreement, the cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for euro-denominated junk bonds fell to the lowest level in more than three years. ⑵ As an insurance against bond defaults, the decline in the cost of credit default swaps indicates that market concerns about risks have been significantly alleviated. ⑶ Analysts at Rabobank pointed out that the trade agreement is "positive in eliminating uncertainty." ⑷ According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index, which tracks eurozone junk bond CDS, is currently trading at 266 basis points. ⑸ This level was last seen in January 2022, marking a significant increase in market confidence in the credit of European companies. ⑹ The conclusion of the agreement avoided more serious trade conflicts and provided a relatively stable operating environment for European companies. ⑺ The positive market response indicates that Europe's credit market may remain optimistic for some time to come.

18:20:05

The framework of the US-EU trade agreement has been reached. What is the impact? What is the response? Details>

18:19:54

[Giant JPMorgan Chase called for "buy", Nike's stock price soared before the market, new product innovation became a life-saving straw? ] ⑴ After JPMorgan Chase upgraded its rating, the stock price of sports goods giant Nike (NKE) rose 2.7% to $78.3 before the market. ⑵ JPMorgan Chase upgraded Nike's stock rating from "neutral" to "overweight", and at the same time significantly raised the target price from $64 to $93. ⑶ This new target price is nearly 22% higher than the previous closing price, showing a strong bullish signal. ⑷ JPMorgan Chase believes that Nike has the opportunity to regain an operating profit margin of more than 500 basis points between fiscal years 2026 and 2028. ⑸ This growth potential is mainly due to the improvement of full-price sales and the market's positive acceptance of new product innovation. ⑹ Currently, among the 40 brokerages, 19 gave Nike a "buy" or higher rating, 19 were "hold", and only 2 were "sell". ⑺ Market traders should pay attention to whether the new product strategy can continue to drive Nike's profitability

18:15:32

[A heavyweight week begins, Wall Street futures rise across the board, can the US-EU agreement turn the tide? ] ⑴ Wall Street futures climbed on Monday, boosted by the trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. ⑵ As of 18:10 Beijing time, the S&P 500 electronic trading rose 0.29%, the Nasdaq 100 electronic trading rose 0.48%, and the Dow electronic trading rose 0.19%. ⑶ Although the US-EU agreement cut tariffs in half to 15%, this certain news still boosted market sentiment before the key earnings week. ⑷ This week, the "Big Seven" technology stocks, including Microsoft and Apple, will release earnings reports, and the market's momentum driven by optimism about artificial intelligence will face a test. ⑸ The market is also paying attention to the US-China trade negotiations, which may extend the truce for another 90 days. ⑹ Traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but CME data shows that the probability of a first rate cut in September is still as high as 59.8%. ⑺ The market will pay close attention to the speeches of Fed officials for clues on future rate cuts and assess the impact of tariff rhetoric on inflation.

18:14:11

NIDEC will invest approximately 17 billion yen to build a new compressor factory in India. (Nikkei)

18:13:54

[Is the sovereignty of the euro challenged again? The ECB warns: US dollar stablecoins may push up European borrowing costs] ⑴ A blog post by the European Central Bank warns that the dominance of US dollar stablecoins may threaten Europe's monetary autonomy. ⑵ The article points out that this will bring strategic and economic advantages to the United States, enabling it to finance debt at a lower cost and enhance its global influence. ⑶ For Europe, this means relatively higher financing costs, reduced monetary policy autonomy, and increased geopolitical dependence. ⑷ At present, US dollar stablecoins issued by Tether and Circle dominate the global market, while the market value of euro stablecoins is negligible, less than 350 million euros. ⑸ The article emphasizes that if US dollar stablecoins are widely used in the euro area, the ECB's control over monetary conditions may be weakened. ⑹ To meet this challenge, Europe should accelerate the launch of the digital version of the euro and encourage the development of more euro-based stablecoins. ⑺ The article finally calls for stronger global coordination of stablecoin regulation to avoid instability, regulatory arbitrage, and increased dominance of the US dollar.

18:13:47

[Unexpected power outage hits refining giant hard, Moeve Petroleum's profit plummeted 19% in the first half of the year] ⑴ Moeve, Spain's second largest refiner, announced that its net profit fell 19% year-on-year to 324 million euros in the first half of the year. ⑵ Profits before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation plummeted 33% to only 733 million euros. ⑶ The company attributed the main reason for the decline in profits to the massive power outage in Spain and Portugal on April 28. ⑷ The power outage caused the shutdown and restart of Moeve's two refineries, incurring high additional costs. ⑸ In addition, the shutdown caused by planned maintenance in the first half of the year also further reduced the capacity utilization of the refineries. ⑹ Moeve's competitor Repsol also revealed that the power outage caused it to lose 175 million euros in the second quarter. ⑺ These data highlight the huge impact of external emergencies on the profitability of the energy industry.

18:12:36

[Technical analysis of EUR/USD] From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the exchange rate quickly retreated after forming a top pattern at the high point of 1.1788, forming an obvious "false breakthrough" structure in the short term. The recent price has dropped to 1.1657, close to the medium-term key support area formed by the previous low of 1.1556. The Bollinger Bands showed signs of "opening and enlarging", and a large negative line broke through the support range between the middle and lower Bollinger bands. The current exchange rate is running near the lower Bollinger band. The short-term trend has fallen into a strong downward trend. The MACD indicator quickly crossed below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram turned from positive to negative and continued to expand, and the trend of short-term momentum increased. The RSI index is near 38 and has not yet entered the oversold zone. There is still room for decline in the short term. Analysts believe that the key support is around 1.1630 and 1.1570. The former is the lower edge of the previous consolidation area, and the latter is close to the overlapping position of the 50-day moving average. If it falls below this area, it may further open up the downward space to 1.1555. The upper resistance is still focused on the 1.1720 and 1.1780 areas, and the rebound momentum can be restored after breaking through.

18:12:21

[The Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold this week. Will the tariff "black swan" delay rate hikes? ] ⑴ ANZ Research predicts that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at this week's monetary policy meeting. ⑵ Economist Tom Kenny pointed out that political uncertainty surrounding Japan's trade and domestic policies remains high. ⑶ He believes that it is unclear how the 15% tariff imposed by the United States on Japanese goods exported to the United States will affect Japan's economy and inflation. ⑷ At the same time, the ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the Senate will make Japan's domestic policy making more complicated. ⑸ Despite this, the bank expects the Bank of Japan to raise its fiscal year consumer price index (CPI) forecast to reflect the impact of rising food prices. ⑹ In addition, given the tightening labor market and high corporate confidence, Tom Kenny believes that the Bank of Japan still has room to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October this year and April next year. ⑺ The focus of the market is whether external uncertainties will delay the Bank of Japan's rate hike process

18:11:36

German government spokesman: Germany is ready to take measures to put more pressure on Israel on the Gaza issue

18:11:28

The euro plunged and broke through, can the 15% tariff agreement defeat the strength of the US dollar? Details>

18:10:14

[Behind the calm of the oil market, undercurrents are surging. What are the giants planning? ] ⑴ The Asian fuel oil spot market was sluggish, the spot premium and discount did not change much, and the overall momentum was insufficient. ⑵ The offer price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) has weakened, resulting in a slight decline in its premium and discount. ⑶ The bid gap between buyers and sellers of high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) is still large, and the premium and discount remain at a discount. ⑷ The Hi-five spread remained at a wide range of about US$88 per ton, reflecting the weakness of the high sulfur fuel oil market. ⑸ Philips 66 plans to operate its refineries at 90%-95% of its integrated capacity in the third quarter, indicating its optimism about the future market. ⑹ On the other hand, India's crude oil imports in June fell 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, a new low since February, which put pressure on oil prices. ⑺ In addition, Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA is preparing to restart its joint venture, while Qatar has threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to the European Union. ⑻ Although the Asian market appears calm on the surface, changes in global supply and demand and geopolitical factors are quietly affecting the future trend of the oil market.

18:09:22

[India's exports face a cold winter, will the global economic slowdown become the "last straw that breaks the camel's back"? ] ⑴ The Indian Ministry of Finance pointed out in its monthly economic report that the global economic slowdown may further suppress India's export demand. ⑵ The report emphasizes that the continued uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff remarks may put pressure on India's trade performance in the coming quarters. ⑶ India's commodity exports fell to US$35.14 billion in June, a 9% decrease from the previous month, the lowest level since November last year. ⑷ Despite external challenges, the report believes that India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient. ⑸ In addition, the report predicts that India's inflation rate in fiscal year 2025-26 may be lower than the 3.7% expected by the Reserve Bank of India, and retail inflation in June has fallen to 2.1%, the lowest in more than six years. ⑹ Although the governor of the Reserve Bank of India said that it has "won the battle against inflation", he still emphasized that price stability is its core goal. ⑺ This series of data shows that although domestic inflationary pressures have eased, weak external demand is becoming a major risk facing the Indian economy.

18:08:39

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1,400.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1,399.91/ounce, up 0.33% on the day; the main Nymex platinum futures contract is currently trading at $1,440.5/ounce, up 1.24% on the day;

18:02:39

【The EU-US trade agreement has caused "mixed joy and sorrow", who will pay for the EU's economic losses? 】 ⑴ The United States and the EU have reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods. Although this is lower than the previously threatened 30%, it is still much higher than the zero tariff expected by the EU. ⑵ The Belgian Prime Minister said it was a "moment of relief, not celebration" because the agreement still left some key issues unresolved. ⑶ European Commission President von der Leyen also admitted that this was "the best result we could get." ⑷ German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed this, believing that the agreement avoided a trade conflict that could have dealt a heavy blow to Germany's export-oriented economy. ⑸ The conclusion of the agreement boosted European stock markets, with the Stoxx 600 index reaching a four-month high, led by technology and healthcare stocks. ⑹ However, French government officials said that although the agreement has its merits, it is still unbalanced and requires more negotiations before it can be formally finalized. ⑺ In addition, the agreement stipulates that the EU will invest tens of billions of dollars in the United States and purchase strategic goods worth $750 billion within three years, but analysts question whether the United States has sufficient production capacity to meet this huge demand.

18:01:21

[The UK retail winter has lasted for 10 months, and consumer confidence has fallen to the freezing point? ] ⑴ The latest survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows that the downward trend of UK retail sales has continued to the 10th month. ⑵ Although the year-on-year sales index in July rose from -46 in June to -34, it is still in the weak range, indicating that consumer demand is still sluggish. ⑶ In the survey, the expected sales index in August also rose from -49 to -31, showing that companies' confidence in the future has improved slightly. ⑷ Chief Economist Martin Sartorius pointed out that high price pressures and economic uncertainty continue to suppress household demand, resulting in a continuous decline in sales since October last year. ⑸ Although official data showed that sales rebounded in June, sales increased by only 0.2% in the three months ending June, the weakest increase since February. ⑹ The inflation rate rose to 3.6% in June, once again exacerbating the cost of living pressure on households. ⑺ It is worth noting that online sales have increased slightly for the third consecutive month, which may reflect a shift in consumption patterns.

18:00:21

The CBI Retail Sales Expectations Index for the UK in July

Previous : -49 Forecast : -

Published Value -31

18:00:02

The CBI retail sales difference in the UK for July

Previous : -46 Forecast : -

Published Value -34

17:59:45

[OPEC+ insists on increasing production, but the demand side "drops the chain"? The crude oil market is hidden] ⑴ The Middle East crude oil market shows signs of differentiation, with Oman and Dubai crude oil spot premiums remaining stable, while Murban crude oil premiums have fallen after hitting a nearly six-month high. ⑵ Indian refiner MRPL purchased two ships of Azeri Light crude oil for delivery in September. This rare purchase occurred after the spot premium of this grade of crude oil fell to a four-year low. ⑶ OPEC+ representatives said the organization is unlikely to change its existing production increase plan to restore market share during the strong summer demand. ⑷ But the latest data showed that India's crude oil imports in June fell 4.7% month-on-month to 20.32 million tons, the lowest since February. ⑸ In addition, Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in September for the second consecutive month to cope with tight supply and strong demand. ⑹ Russia's average daily oil exports from western ports in August are expected to fall to 1.77 million barrels month-on-month. ⑺ Market data is mixed, with demand showing signs of weakness, but supply still seems to be tightening, which may increase uncertainty about future oil price trends.

17:58:41

[India's overnight interest rate plummeted, liquidity was greatly loosened, and the interest rate cut cycle is coming? ] ⑴ India's benchmark overnight interest rate has fallen sharply in the past three trading days, indicating that the liquidity of the banking system is undergoing significant changes. ⑵ The Mumbai Interbank Offered Rate (MIBOR) plummeted to 5.40% on Monday, compared with 5.82% last Wednesday. ⑶ The Secured Overnight Rupee Rate (SORR) also fell from 5.76% last Wednesday to 5.29%, a drop of 47 basis points. ⑷ This downward trend reflects that there is ample funds in the banking system, and most of the funds are not deposited in the Reserve Bank of India, which has eased the liquidity pressure in the market. ⑸ Traders pointed out that the weighted average interbank lending rate and the weighted average tri-party repo rate have both fallen below the policy rate, but are still above the lower limit, which is exactly what the Reserve Bank of India hopes to achieve. ⑹ This sign may indicate that the Reserve Bank of India will have more room for easing in future monetary policy.

17:57:53

Cambodian Prime Minister: Very good talks and results, hope to stop the exchange of fire immediately

17:56:26

As of July 25th, commercial inventories of soybean oil in key regions across China

Previous : 109.18 Forecast : -

Published Value 108.81

17:56:10

Commercial inventories of palm oil in key regions across China as of July 25

Previous : 59.14 Forecast : -

Published Value 61.55

17:55:01

[The "aftermath" of the trade agreement has not yet subsided, Romania's GDP may suffer, and the growth rate may be reduced by 0.2%] ⑴ Concordia, the largest employers' association in Romania, said that the US-EU trade agreement may reduce Romania's economic growth by 0.15% to 0.2%. ⑵ The association's macroeconomists pointed out that international institutions expect the eurozone's economic growth rate to be reduced by 0.3% to 0.4%. ⑶ The reduction in Romania's economic growth is precisely affected by the transmission effect of the eurozone's economic slowdown. ⑷ It is worth noting that Concordia had predicted in May that tariffs may lead to a 0.3% to 0.7% reduction in economic output. ⑸ Although this latest forecast has been lowered, it still highlights the possible negative impact of the US-EU trade agreement on the European economy, especially member states like Romania. ⑹ The actual impact of the agreement may exceed expectations, and the market needs to pay close attention to subsequent data.

17:52:42

Malaysian Prime Minister: Ceasefire begins at midnight local time

17:52:26

Malaysian Prime Minister: The Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia have expressed their willingness to immediately cease fire and issue a joint statement to seek a peaceful solution

17:51:35

[15% tariff is a foregone conclusion, German Economy Minister: The agreement brings certainty, but there are many challenges] ⑴ German Economy Minister Reiche said that in the current challenging times, it is crucial to reach a US-EU trade agreement. ⑵ She pointed out that the 15% basic tariff in the agreement will undoubtedly pose a challenge to German companies. ⑶ However, she emphasized that the biggest benefit of the agreement is that it "provides certainty", which is crucial to stabilizing market confidence. ⑷ Reiche believes that the most important thing now is to quickly clarify the implementation details of the agreement to ensure that Germany can rely on the stability of this agreement. ⑸ This statement reflects that although Germany has concerns about tariff rates, it prefers to avoid more destructive trade conflicts through agreements. ⑹ The focus of the market will shift from the agreement itself to its specific implementation methods and its impact on different industries

17:51:22

【US-EU trade deal landed, UK stock market "cautiously" rose, auto stocks led gains】 ⑴ London's main stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the FTSE 100 up 0.1% and the FTSE 250 up 0.3%, as investors assessed the impact of the US-EU trade deal. ⑵ Although the agreement imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods, the market is still looking for positive signals from it. ⑶ The automotive and parts sector led the gains, up 1.1%, showing that the market is looking forward to easing trade tensions. ⑷ However, industrial mining stocks were weak, falling 0.9%, dragged down by lower metal prices. ⑸ GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) shares rose 1.3% after the company reached a $500 million drug development agreement with Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine in China. ⑹ In addition, investment company Ocean Wilsons Holdings fell 10.6% after agreeing to merge with Hansa Investment, becoming the biggest loser in the FTSE 250 index. ⑺ The market is closely watching the next move of the Bank of England. Traders predict that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut on August 7 is as high as 86.5%.

17:49:46

EU Commission launches in-depth investigation into ADNOC's acquisition of polymer materials maker Covestro

17:49:36

[A bumper harvest is in sight, global soybean and corn prices plunge, is the time for bears to revel? ]? ⑴ Chicago soybean futures prices fell due to ample global supply, weak demand and good weather in the Midwestern crop belt of the United States. ⑵ As of 17:35 Beijing time, the main soybean contract fell 0.6% to US$10.14 per bushel. ⑶ Corn prices were also under pressure due to market expectations of a bumper harvest in the United States, falling 0.8% to US$3.96 per bushel. ⑷ As the harvest season in the northern hemisphere accelerates and the global supply outlook is optimistic, wheat prices have weakened accordingly, falling 0.9% to US$5.33-1/2 per bushel. ⑸ Analysts at Australia's IKON Commodities pointed out that the soybean market is facing pressure from bumper harvests in the United States and the world, and it is difficult to get a substantial boost in the coming months. ⑹ In addition, weak US export sales data further exacerbated the downward pressure on the soybean market. ⑺ Although the US-EU trade agreement has been reached, the market is still unable to make a judgment due to the lack of details on agricultural product tariffs. ⑻ Traders were generally relieved that a more damaging trade war had been avoided

17:48:02

German government spokesman: We see the challenges this agreement brings to the German economy

17:47:58

German government spokesman: We believe it is necessary to conduct further negotiations on steel and aluminum

17:46:59

Why did gold open low and end high? Market review and market outlook Details>

17:41:26

[The EU agreement is "clouded with doubts", the Italian Prime Minister speaks out, and tariff details become the focus] ⑴ Italian Prime Minister Meroni welcomed the trade agreement between the United States and Europe, but at the same time stressed that the best judgment cannot be made before seeing the details. ⑵ The agreement imposes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods. Meroni believes that if this rate includes previous tariffs, it is "sustainable." ⑶ Italy is one of the EU's major exporters to the United States, with a trade surplus of more than 40 billion euros. ⑷ Meroni pointed out that there are still several key elements missing in the agreement, especially in sensitive industries such as pharmaceuticals and automobiles. ⑸ Italy is seeking clear information on potential exemptions for agricultural products and hopes to better understand the terms of investment and natural gas purchases. ⑹ The Italian government is ready to launch support measures at the national level and calls on the EU to take corresponding actions to help affected industries. ⑺ This position shows that although the agreement has been reached, its specific implementation details and the impact on different industries are still the focus of market attention.

17:39:58

German government spokesman: EU-US trade agreement details have not yet been finalized

17:38:32

[Dollar shorts retreat, bulls counterattack strongly, has the foreign exchange market changed direction? ] ⑴ The latest data shows that speculators are significantly reducing their short positions in the US dollar. ⑵ The net short position of the US dollar has been reduced from US$17.9 billion to US$14.75 billion. ⑶ Traders not only cleared their short bets on the British pound, but also turned to long the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar. ⑷ Currently, speculators hold four long positions in the US dollar, while there are five short positions. ⑸ This shows that the market's bearish sentiment on the US dollar is significantly weakening and bullish forces are accumulating. ⑹ Despite this, short bets on the US dollar against the euro and the yen are still the largest, at US$18 billion and US$9 billion, respectively. ⑺ This change in the market may indicate that the US dollar will gain more support in the short term. ⑻ Traders need to pay close attention to whether this trend will continue and remain vigilant to market fluctuations.

17:37:38

[A blockbuster agreement has been released, and the EU's $750 billion "super order" has set off US LNG concept stocks] ⑴ After the US and Europe reached a broader trade agreement, the shares of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) developers jumped sharply in pre-market trading. ⑵ Among them, the share prices of NextDecade, Venture Global and Cheniere all rose by 7% to 8.8%. ⑶ The direct catalyst for this wave of gains is the EU's commitment to purchase US$250 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas each year over the next three years. ⑷ This "super order" of up to $750 billion is intended to help the EU replace Russian natural gas. ⑸ This agreement not only brings huge profit expectations to related US companies, but also highlights a major shift in the global energy supply pattern. ⑹ The positive market response shows that investors are optimistic about the certainty and long-term benefits brought by the agreement. ⑺ This deal may reshape the competitive landscape of the global LNG market.

17:37:32

[The US-EU tariff agreement has been implemented, and Europe's GDP may shrink by 0.2%. Who is the biggest loser? ] ⑴ Capital Economics analyzed that although the US-EU trade agreement has avoided a more serious trade war, its impact is worse than previously expected. ⑵ The agreement has pushed up the average tariff on US imports from the EU from 1.2% last year to about 17%. ⑶ The agreement is expected to reduce the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) by about 0.2%, exceeding the market's previous general assumptions. ⑷ Nevertheless, the agreement has temporarily avoided a sharp increase in tariffs and retaliatory measures from the EU, bringing short-term certainty to the market. ⑸ Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that the impact on Ireland and Germany is expected to be more significant. ⑹ France and Spain have been relatively less affected. ⑺ This data shows that even a seemingly "stop-loss" agreement has a very obvious negative impact on the European economy, and the degree of impact on each member state varies.

17:36:14

German Economy Minister: Some industries will need to adjust

17:36:04

German Economy Minister says EU-US trade deal: It is very important to reach an agreement in these challenging times

17:36:02

European junk bond credit default swaps fell to a more than three-year low of 266 basis points after the U.S. and Europe reached a trade agreement

17:35:35

USD/CHF has just hit the 0.8000 mark and is currently trading at 0.8000, up 0.64% on the day.

17:33:38

[Emerging market currencies and stocks are both under pressure, multiple uncertainties crush investor confidence? ] ⑴ As investors turn their attention to this week's central bank interest rate decisions and economic data, emerging market currencies generally fell and stock markets did not change much. ⑵ The United States and Europe reached a 15% tariff agreement, which is lower than the 30%-50% previously threatened, but because there were rumors in the market before, the impact on the foreign exchange market was limited. ⑶ The US dollar index rose 0.5%, putting pressure on most emerging market currencies, and the South African rand fell 0.6%. ⑷ The MSCI Emerging Market Currency and Stock Index fell 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. ⑸ Despite this, Fitch's upgrade of Turkey's rating to "Ba3" has eased the pressure on the Turkish lira to a certain extent, causing it to change little. ⑹ The market is also closely watching the negotiations between the United States and China that may extend the trade truce. ⑺ This week, the interest rate decisions of many central banks, including the Federal Reserve, as well as the employment and personal consumption expenditure data in the United States, will dominate the market trend. ⑻ Investors are wary of the potential impact of Trump's tariff remarks on the global economy and inflation.

17:33:16

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he would monitor the market and adjust bond issuance plans as needed.

17:31:40

【The Eurozone's funding situation has changed dramatically, overnight deposits have soared, and market liquidity alarms have been sounded?】 ⑴ The latest data from the European Central Bank shows that the use of overnight loan tools has surged from 1 million euros the previous day to 103 million euros. ⑵ At the same time, the deposit volume of overnight deposit tools has also increased from 2.6227 trillion euros to 2.6245 trillion euros, indicating that market liquidity is still abundant. ⑶ This means that the market demand for short-term funds has increased, but most of the funds are still chosen to be deposited in the central bank. ⑷ Although the use of overnight loans has increased significantly, its volume is still insignificant compared to the huge amount of deposits. ⑸ This data reflects that the liquidity structure of funds in the interbank market is undergoing subtle changes. ⑹ In the current macroeconomic environment, the market's cautious attitude towards funds still dominates. ⑺ It is necessary to pay close attention to subsequent data to determine whether this is an early signal of tight market liquidity.

17:31:27

[Hawks speak out! ECB's Kazimir: September rate cut is almost impossible, inflation risk remains] ⑴ ECB President Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to cut interest rates again and will not take action in September unless there are major economic surprises. ⑵ He made it clear that he would only consider cutting interest rates if there were signs of "clear collapse" in the labor market. ⑶ Although the US-EU trade agreement has reduced uncertainty, Kazimir believes that its specific impact on inflation remains unclear. ⑷ He believes that it is unlikely that inflation will continue to be below the ECB's 2% target, and inflation risks do not tend to be downward. ⑸ This assessment is consistent with the view previously revealed by sources that the threshold for a September rate cut is very high after the rate cut to 2% since June 2024. ⑹ Although other officials are concerned that inflation may fall below 2% next year, Kazimir is convinced that this is only a temporary phenomenon. ⑺ His tough stance suggests that the ECB will continue to be cautious in the short term and that market expectations for rate cuts may need to be readjusted.

17:30:36

ECB board member Casimir: I think it is unlikely that inflation will continue to be lower than expected; risks are not tilted to the downside

17:30:32

ECB board member Casimir: I will only take action if there are clear signs of a breakdown in the labor market

17:30:31

ECB board member Casimir: I think it is unlikely that inflation will continue to be lower than expected; risks are not tilted to the downside

17:30:23

ECB's Kazimir: I don't think there will be any major changes that will force me to take action in September

17:29:59

[Shandong Gold: Shanjin International intends to issue H shares and apply for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange] Shandong Gold announced that its holding subsidiary Shanjin International Gold Co., Ltd. intends to issue overseas listed foreign shares (H shares) and apply for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Shanjin International will fully consider the interests of existing shareholders and the situation of domestic and foreign capital markets, and choose the appropriate time and issuance window to complete this issuance and listing within the validity period of the shareholders' meeting resolution. As of now, the specific details have not been determined and need to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting of the company and Shanjin International for deliberation, and obtain the filing, approval and approval of relevant government agencies and regulatory agencies.

17:28:18

Copper price analysis: The rally pauses and the market awaits more value opportunities Details>

17:27:28

[Trade agreement hits Heineken, share price plummets, where is the way out? ] ⑴ Heineken welcomed the US-EU trade agreement, saying it was basically in line with the company's expectations and brought certainty to the market. ⑵ However, the market did not buy it, and Heineken's share price plummeted 4.3%, reflecting investors' concerns about tariff risks. ⑶ The CEO said that although the agreement reduced the 30% tariff threat to 15%, it would still have an impact on the company's profits in the United States. ⑷ The company is evaluating all long-term response options, including relocating production lines, but emphasized that such initiatives are capital-intensive and require more consistent policies. ⑸ Despite the tariff challenges, Heineken's organic operating profit grew 7.4% in the first half of the year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 7%. ⑹ This was mainly due to growth in emerging markets such as Africa and Asia and cost-saving measures. The company also raised its annual cost-saving target to 500 million euros. ⑺ Although sales may weaken in the second half of the year, the company still maintains its annual profit growth guidance of 4% to 8%. ⑻ Investors believe that Heineken's strong growth in emerging markets is enough to offset short-term challenges

17:26:05

[Trade agreement hits foreign exchange market, pound under pressure for three consecutive declines, is technical breakdown imminent? ] ⑴ After the United States and the European Union reached a 15% trade agreement, the demand for the US dollar increased, causing the pound to widen its decline against the US dollar. ⑵ The pound has closed lower for the third consecutive trading day against the US dollar, falling from 1.3449 to 1.3407. ⑶ This consolidates its trend of closing inside the daily cloud area last Friday, showing that the technical side is facing downward pressure. ⑷ The key support level is between 1.3330 and 1.3300, which includes the lower edge of the daily Bollinger band at 1.3330, the 100-day moving average at 1.3329, and the bottom of the cloud area at 1.3300. ⑸ Once it falls below this range, the pound may face a deeper correction. ⑹ The upward resistance level is at the 10-day moving average of 1.3461 and the upper edge of the cloud area at 1.3479. ⑺ Although the euro fell against the pound in early trading, temporarily slowing the decline of the pound, the strength of the US dollar is still dominating the market.

17:24:27

[Guangdong Paper Industry Releases "Anti-involution" Initiative to Promote High-quality Development of the Industry] ⑴ The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an initiative to put an end to below-cost dumping and resist unfair competition. ⑵ Encourage enterprises to set prices based on real costs, reasonable profits and market supply and demand to ensure the overall value space of the industry. ⑶ It is recommended to carefully assess market capacity, avoid blindly expanding homogeneous and low-end production capacity, and increase investment in technological transformation. ⑷ It is recommended to accelerate the elimination of high-energy-consuming equipment, adopt automated digital technology, and reasonably apply for technical transformation funding subsidies.

17:24:11

Hong Kong SAR Government: Total gold exports to mainland China in June were 34.719 tons, up from 57.76 tons previously. Net gold exports to mainland China in June were 19.366 tons, up from 48.127 tons previously.

17:23:36

The Israeli army continued to launch military operations in the Gaza Strip, which has resulted in 41 deaths. Since the early morning of the 28th, the Israeli army has bombed residential buildings in eastern and southern Gaza, killing many people. The Israeli army also opened fire on people waiting for assistance in the Nezarim Corridor in central and northern Gaza and near southern Rafah, killing at least 8 people. In addition, the Shifa Medical Center in the Gaza Strip confirmed that day that in the past 24 hours, 6 people had died of hunger and malnutrition, including a child. (CCTV News)

17:23:12

【China's big models perform well: DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen rank among the top five in the world】 ⑴ OpenRouter's latest list shows that China's DeepSeek and Alibaba Tongyi Qianwen are among the top five big models in the world. ⑵ Tongyi Qianwen ranks fourth with a market share of 10.4%, surpassing OpenAI (4.7%). ⑶ Nine of the top ten fastest-growing models are open source, and Qwen3-Coder ranks first with nearly 50 billion tokens of calls. ⑷ Tongyi Qianwen takes the top three and occupies five of the top ten, with weekly calls exceeding 200 billion tokens.

17:22:55

[Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drug telpotide injection approved for new indications in China] ⑴ Eli Lilly's GLP-1 drug telpotide injection (trade name: Mufengda) has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration for a new indication. ⑵ The new indication is combined with insulin to treat adults with type 2 diabetes, improving blood sugar control on the basis of diet control and exercise.

17:21:26

[Yuandong Bio's subsidiary obtains drug registration certificate for Perindopril Amlodipine Tablets] ⑴ Yuandong Bio announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Shuode Pharmaceuticals has obtained the drug registration certificate for Perindopril Amlodipine Tablets (III) approved and issued by the State Food and Drug Administration. ⑵ The drug is a compound preparation containing perindopril arginine and amlodipine besylate, suitable for adult patients whose hypertension cannot be adequately controlled by monotherapy.

17:19:43

[China Classification Society and BYD Lithium Battery signed a cooperation agreement to jointly promote the development of battery-powered ships] ⑴ China Classification Society Wuhan Standards Research Institute and BYD Lithium Battery signed a cooperation framework agreement in Shenzhen. ⑵ The two sides exchanged views on the clean transformation of ship power and believed that battery-powered ships are the core carrier of green water transportation development. ⑶ The cooperation will focus on the construction of battery thermal safety laboratories, the research and development of new power batteries, safety testing and verification, and the improvement of specifications and standards. ⑷ Focus on promoting the construction of shore-based charging and swapping, the development of intelligent monitoring systems, and the formulation of technical standards such as battery ship safety testing and certification.

17:19:29

[Hesai Technology rose 3% before the market opened, and Daiwa and Morgan Stanley are optimistic about its development prospects] ⑴ Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) rose 3% to $21.94 before the market opened. ⑵ Daiwa Securities analysts expect the company to break even in the second quarter and maintain strong momentum in LiDAR delivery. ⑶ Morgan Stanley analysts raised the rating to "buy" and raised the target price from $23 to $26. ⑷ Chinese Robotaxi operators will start large-scale commercialization in 2025, using Hesai's semi-solid-state LiDAR to reduce costs and form a competitive advantage.

17:17:43

[The national childcare subsidy system will be implemented next year, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year until the age of 3] ⑴ The national childcare subsidy system was announced on the 28th. From January 1, 2025, subsidies will be issued to infants under 3 years old, with a standard of 3,600 yuan per child per year. ⑵ The subsidy covers one, two, and three children. Infants born before 2025 who are under 3 years old will be paid according to the number of months they should be subsidized. ⑶ Experts said that the policy has achieved full coverage of support for three-child births, and the inclusion of one child in the subsidy will help alleviate the concerns of young couples about childbearing.

17:16:43

According to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, BlackRock's stake in Innovent Biologics increased from 4.63% to 5.19% on July 22.

17:16:04

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Honeywell to $245 from $225 and maintained a "hold" rating.

17:12:27

[As the trade war between the United States and Europe escalates, how will the wine giants save themselves? ] ⑴ Morningstar analyst Verushka Shetty pointed out that beverage companies have the ability to cope with the impact of tariffs brought about by the US-EU trade agreement through price adjustments. ⑵ Distilled spirits companies are often victims of trade wars, but major companies have successfully mitigated the impact of tariff increases in the past. ⑶ It is still uncertain whether tariffs will affect French spirits and wines, which remains a focus of market concerns. ⑷ Major distilled spirits companies such as Diageo and Remy Cointreau have the largest sales exposure to the US market and may be the most affected. ⑸ The market has already reacted, with Remy Cointreau's stock price falling by about 3% and Diageo falling by 0.4%. ⑹ Campari and Pernod Ricard's stock prices also fell by 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively. ⑺ Despite the challenges, the pricing power and past experience of the wine giants may help them through the difficulties.

17:12:11

[Bethel invests US$75 million to establish a subsidiary in Morocco] ⑴ Bethel announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary "Wuhu Bethel Morocco Automotive Safety Systems Company" in Morocco to engage in the production and sales of auto parts. ⑵ The total investment in the project is US$75 million. The overseas investment certificate and filing notice have been obtained, and local registration has been completed.

17:11:00

【With the release of the Japan-US trade agreement, will the yen bulls see a turnaround?】 ⑴ E Fund Asset Management pointed out that the conclusion of the Japan-US trade agreement may provide support for the yen in the short term. ⑵ The agreement eased previous concerns about high tariffs on products such as automobiles and made Japan the preferred trading partner of the United States. ⑶ T. Rowe Price Asset Management believes that as uncertainty subsides, the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in advance increases, which will provide short-term support for the yen. ⑷ Previously, the Bank of Japan remained cautious due to trade and economic uncertainties, and the clarification of tariff issues helped alleviate such concerns. ⑸ However, the current political uncertainty may limit the significant appreciation of the yen. ⑹ The market needs to pay close attention to the future policy trends of the Bank of Japan and the development of the political situation. ⑺ The yen may be boosted in the short term, but the long-term trend still faces challenges.

17:10:48

[The main contract of industrial silicon futures plummeted by 8%, and the net short position of the top 20 seats was 38,000 lots] ⑴ The main contract of industrial silicon futures 2509 closed down 8.00%, with a trading volume of 683,700 lots. ⑵ The position data showed that the net short position of the top 20 seats was 38,006 lots, and the short position was dominant. ⑶ The total trading volume of all contracts was 1,022,800 lots, an increase of 65,600 lots from the previous day. ⑷ The long position of the top 20 seats of all contracts was 366,700 lots (minus 20,300 lots), and the short position was 430,400 lots (minus 32,100 lots).

17:09:37

Airbus notes agreement between the United States and the European Union to exempt aviation products from tariffs, a move that restores long-standing reciprocity in tariff-free trade for civil aircraft

17:09:19

Airbus: A stable and predictable trade environment is essential for the highly integrated global aerospace industry

17:08:35

[New trade agreement triggers division within the EU, Germany and France have very different opinions] ⑴ The United States and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, successfully avoiding a larger trade war between the two sides. ⑵ The agreement triggered very different reactions from leaders within the EU, indicating serious internal divisions. ⑶ Hungarian Prime Minister Orban bluntly pointed out that this was not a real agreement, saying that Trump "ate" European Commission President von der Leyen in the negotiations. ⑷ French Prime Minister Bayrou said that this was a "painful day" and that the alliance succumbed to external pressure and betrayed common values and interests. ⑸ However, German Chancellor Merz was optimistic and believed that the agreement successfully avoided trade conflicts that could have dealt a heavy blow to Germany's export-oriented economy. ⑹ He particularly pointed out that tariffs on the automotive industry were reduced from 27.5% to 15%, nearly halved. ⑺ Both Finnish Prime Minister Orbó and Swedish Trade Minister Dusa believed that the agreement brought much-needed predictability to the global economy and businesses, although the Swedish side believed that this might only be the "least bad option." ⑻ Italian Prime Minister Meroni said that he could not make the best judgment before seeing the details of the agreement. ⑼ Irish Trade Minister Harris believed that the agreement provided certainty for businesses, which was crucial for employment, growth and investment.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3363.16	73.24 (2.23%)
XAG	37.003	0.319 (0.87%)
CONC	67.26	-2.00 (-2.89%)
OILC	69.48	-2.30 (-3.20%)
USD	98.678	-1.389 (-1.39%)
EURUSD	1.1594	0.0001 (0.01%)
GBPUSD	1.3282	-0.0001 (-0.00%)
USDCNH	7.1909	-0.0006 (-0.01%)

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