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2026-05-26 Tuesday

2026-05-30

21:14:33

The S&P/CS unadjusted home price Index for 20 major U.S. cities in March

Previous : 338.15 Forecast : -

Published Value 341.74

Previous

21:05:15

[Local Price Drops Only 9.1% to £16.47 Per Liter, Low Prices Unlikely to Return to Low Levels] ⑴ Despite a 49.3% drop in the weighted average price of extra virgin olive oil in Europe to €4.59 per kilogram between January and November 2025, the average price per liter in several UK supermarkets only decreased by 9.1% to £16.47 between January 2025 and January 2026. ⑵ Retail prices subsequently fell slightly by 0.7%, but the UK general manager of Filippo Berio stated that the supermarket price reductions were far from reflecting the decline in wholesale prices, and some retailers were barely passing on the price cuts to downstream customers, profiting from the situation. ⑶ Brands themselves have implemented price reductions to stimulate consumption, but the Iran war has led to soaring shipping costs, while extreme weather continues to pose significant risks to olive cultivation, causing growers to be highly concerned about the future. (4) Producers are increasing investment in efficient irrigation and advanced agricultural technologies to enhance resilience and yields, while buyers are sourcing from multiple regions, reducing reliance on single climate-affected areas. Production is increasing in Tunisia and Morocco. (5) Despite concerns raised by rainfall in Spain in January and February, the outlook for the upcoming olive harvest season is not negative. Current conditions are favorable, but attention should be paid to the flowering period. (6) According to data from Numerator's Worldpanel, household penetration of the product category has rebounded from approximately 47% in March 2025 to nearly 50% in December 2025, as consumers return as deflation subsides. (7) However, the average price of £16.74 per liter indicates that even though consumers have gradually accepted the current high prices, whether further price increases will be accepted by the market remains uncertain.

21:04:21

[Zero Expectation of Interest Rate Cuts, Inverted Financing Costs, Pressure on $85 Billion Short-Term Debt Auction] ⑴ The U.S. Treasury announced on Tuesday that it will issue $85 billion in 6-week Treasury bills, maturing on July 9, 2026, resulting in net new financing of $15 billion after settlement on Thursday. ⑵ The current projected interest rate is 3.61% to 3.6025%, the money market yield is quoted at 3.625%, the money market yield for Treasury bills maturing on July 2 is 3.621%, and the forward rolling spread is 0.4 basis points. ⑶ The spread between 1-month and 2-month rates is 0.5 basis points, translating to approximately 0.13 basis points per week, while the forward rolling spread of 0.4 basis points has positive value. ⑷ Based on the federal funds rate and SOFR futures pricing, the probability of the Fed adjusting interest rates in June is zero, but bidding still needs to consider financing costs. (5) The current overnight borrowing rate is around 3.69%, while the 6-week Treasury bill rate is expected to be lower than this level, potentially resulting in a negative spread, contrary to the context of last week's auction. (6) Due to the large fluctuations in the overnight borrowing rate, the financing environment has become ambiguous, and bidders will submit bids separately for buyers holding long positions and sellers holding rolling positions. (7) The average of the past six cash management bill auctions shows: a subscription multiple of 2.84, indirect bidding accounting for 55.57%, direct bidding accounting for 5.71%, and dealers accounting for 33.73%.

21:03:09

The year-on-year rate of the S&P/CS10 major U.S. unadjusted home price Index for March

Previous : 1.46% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.44%

Previous

21:03:03

The monthly rate of the S&P/CS10 unadjusted home price Index for major U.S. cities in March

Previous : 0.58% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.18%

Previous

21:00:10

The monthly rate of the FHFA home price index in the United States for March

Previous : 0% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

21:00:10

The monthly rate of the S&P/CS20 unadjusted home price index for major U.S. cities in March

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 1%

Previous

21:00:10

The annual rate of the FHFA home price index in the United States for March

Previous : 1.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.70%

Previous

21:00:10

The month-on-month rate of the seasonally adjusted S&P/CS Home price Index for 20 major U.S. cities in March

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : 0.10%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value -0.20%

Previous

21:00:10

The year-on-year rate of the S&P/CS20 major U.S. unadjusted home price Index for March

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : 1%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

21:00:10

The FHFA Home price Index for the United States in March

Previous : 441.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 441.50

Previous

20:35:35

[Caixin Futures: Most Agricultural Products Weak, Soybean Meal to be Sell on Rallies] ⑴ Edible Oils: Mainly volatile. Prices of the three major edible oils continued to weaken, with bulls showing a clear tendency to exit at higher levels. The current spot market fundamentals are weak, and themes for distant months are unlikely to continue driving the near-month market. Near-month prices are suppressed by real negative factors, while distant months are supported by policy increases and weather expectations. In the spot market, 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong rose by 110 yuan to 9390 yuan, soybean oil rose by 20 yuan to 8710 yuan, and rapeseed oil rose by 40 yuan to 10060 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Sell on rallies or enter arbitrage positions. Internationally, the White House announced related purchase commitments, boosting expectations for US soybean exports, but the US soybean planting progress reached 67%, higher than 63% in the same period last year, and favorable weather conditions put some pressure on the rise of US soybean futures. Domestically, the pressure from imported soybeans arriving at ports continues to ease, oil mill operating rates have rebounded, and soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, pig farming is suffering deep losses, and feed companies are mainly replenishing their inventories to meet immediate needs, and the domestic supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged. Operationally, maintain a short-selling strategy on rallies. (3) Corn: Primarily short-selling on rallies. Recently, the main corn contract has been fluctuating at high levels. With the new wheat harvest approaching, some grain traders are clearing their inventories, leading to an increase in corn shipments recently. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the overall market is sluggish. Given the strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals are bearish. Coupled with recent rumors of rice auctions, this has further contributed to the bearish trend in corn futures and spot prices. (4) Live pigs: Enter the reverse arbitrage market. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on live pig capacity control, emphasizing the strict implementation of capacity reduction measures and the dispatch of working groups to promote their implementation. This led to short selling and price increases in the afternoon session. In the spot market, live pig spot prices have been fluctuating recently. Supply pressure remains, demand is weak, and the pace of capacity reduction is slow. The initial volume of second-stage breeding was relatively large, and there may still be concentrated supply pressure in the future. It is recommended not to maintain naked short positions for the time being. The weak reality of arbitrage continues, coupled with the expectation of capacity reduction policies in the far-month months, so it is advisable to enter the reverse arbitrage market on rallies. (5) Eggs: Mainly observe. Egg spot prices retreated slightly over the weekend. This was partly due to end-user resistance to high prices after a continuous rise, and partly due to low restocking activity at all stages of the supply chain during the rainy season, which also put downward pressure on prices. Looking ahead, the number of laying hens in production may recover in June, and the increase in supply coupled with moderate demand could lead to a price correction. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for now.

20:35:10

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Commodities Mainly Fluctuate at High Levels, Soda Ash and Glass Have Limited Upside] ⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating at high levels. Recent news about some consensus reached in the US-Iran negotiations has been released, but the core issues remain unresolved. Today, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have shot down a US drone, while the US Central Command claimed to have conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran. The geopolitical situation is complex, and it is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the short term. As prices are gradually becoming less responsive to positive news, if energy and chemical commodities experience another impulsive surge, it is recommended to gradually realize profits on long positions. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating at high levels. Oil-producing countries have reduced production during the Middle East conflict, and China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil. The US-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate, and Russian fuel oil exports have also been disrupted recently. However, fuel oil demand for power generation is in its peak season, and ship detours have increased demand for marine fuel, resulting in a relatively good fundamental situation. However, the market may develop in a more relaxed direction in the future. It is advisable to wait for the market to rebound to the previous high level and then try shorting with a small position. ⑶ Asphalt: Fluctuating at high levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous month. In June, the total output of local asphalt refineries in China was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the previous month, a drop of 28.5%. (4) Glass: The rebound may be limited. Today, the North China market was affected by rainfall, resulting in poor sales and stable prices. The current daily output of the industry is 146,900 tons. Last week, upstream inventory increased by 44,000 heavy boxes, up 0.06% week-on-week and 12.82% year-on-year. Low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices have driven up costs. A weak rebound is expected in the short term, but medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and the upside potential is relatively cautious. (5) Soda Ash: The rebound may be limited. Recently, the domestic soda ash market has stabilized, with smooth sales and a significant drop in inventory levels. Today, the soda ash capacity utilization rate is 77.78%, with a slight increase in operating rates. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.701 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, a drop of 4.22%. Considering the persistently high coal costs and the large number of soda ash plants undergoing maintenance, prices may rebound in the short term, but the high supply and weak demand in the medium term are unlikely to change, limiting the upside potential. ⑹ Caustic soda: Slightly bearish. Today, the mainstream price of liquid soda ash in Shandong remained stable, while prices in southwestern and central Shandong showed mixed trends. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week was 79.8%, down 1.2% week-on-week, and the factory inventory was 565,600 tons, down 1.17% week-on-week and up 36% year-on-year. ⑺ Methanol: High-level fluctuations. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3165, down 30; the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2675, down 10. Today, the domestic methanol market continued its regionalized performance, with futures continuing to consolidate weakly. Trading in coastal areas was moderate, and the basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. Last week's data showed that port inventories decreased by 81,300 tons compared to the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 10.20%, while producer inventories were 364,200 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons compared to the previous period. Recent news regarding US-Iran negotiations has increased, and methanol futures may fluctuate at high levels.

20:34:14

[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous and New Energy Metals Generally Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Spot Price Falls to 179,700 Yuan] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Fluctuating. On the macro front, the US military carried out a self-defense strike in southern Iran on the 25th, but all parties stated that negotiations are still progressing, weakening market optimism. On the fundamental front, the spot supply of electrolytic copper is sufficient, and imported copper continues to arrive and be stored in ports. However, high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing intentions, and enterprises mostly replenish their stocks as needed. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain fluctuating. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Fluctuating. The macro front is also affected by the situation in the Middle East, weakening market optimism. On the fundamental front, the overseas supply gap and low inventory still provide bottom support, while the domestic unexpected inventory accumulation continues, which will drag down domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: Fluctuating. Due to disturbances at the mining end, overseas processing fees remain low, smelters have extremely low production intentions, and strong expectations of supply contraction provide bottom support. Due to geopolitical instability, zinc prices are expected to remain fluctuating in the short term. ⑷ Precious Metals: Fluctuating. Macroeconomic optimism has weakened, leading to a slightly weaker performance in precious metals today. The seesaw effect between crude oil and precious metals persists, and the Middle East conflict remains highly uncertain, suggesting that precious metals may continue to fluctuate in the future. Although the conflict shows signs of easing, strong expectations of a Fed rate hike will limit significant gains in gold and silver prices. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Fluctuating. The current lithium carbonate market is in a phase of balancing between concentrated negative news and resilient demand. Prices may continue to weaken in the short term, but the downside is limited due to rigid supply constraints. Today, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 300 yuan to 179,700 yuan, with the 06 contract trading at a discount of 8,000 yuan to the spot price and the 09 contract at a discount of 3,700 yuan. Continued tax compliance rectification in the trade and distribution sector has tightened the cash flow of small and medium-sized traders and intermediaries, reducing their willingness to purchase and weakening the spot market's buying power. Meanwhile, previously hidden inventories are gradually entering the market, coupled with the resumption and expansion of overseas lithium mining companies, further easing global supply expectations and increasing overall market supply pressure, driving prices down. On the demand side, the new energy end-user market remains highly active. Production plans for lithium iron phosphate and battery cells in June are expected to increase by 3%-4% compared to May, with downstream demand providing a floor for prices. On the supply side, domestic lithium ore inventories remain at historically low levels. Increased book inventories at some smelters are essentially just inventory transfers and do not change the current tight supply of raw materials. Actual lithium carbonate production will be significantly limited in June, and the inflection point in lithium ore spot supply is not expected to appear until at least early July.

20:33:02

[Caixin Futures: Most Ferrous Metals Show Divergence, Coking Coal Brewing Fifth Round of Price Increases] ⑴ Steel: Low-level fluctuations, valuation decline. Current steel demand is insufficient, while supply remains high, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand outlook. The top 20 long positions in the rebar 10 contract saw slightly larger reductions than short positions, while short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract saw even more significant reductions. Technically, the rebar 10 contract reversed its upward trend, breaking below the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, and may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, the rebar 10 contract is already below the cost of long-process rebar in East China and the off-peak electricity cost of independent electric arc furnaces, indicating a neutral to low valuation, with limited upside and downside potential in the short term. ⑵ Iron Ore: High-level fluctuations, valuation shows support. On the supply side, iron ore shipments continue to recover, with a surge in shipments expected as the Australian fiscal year-end approaches in June; on the demand side, high pig iron production provides support for spot prices. Technically, the September contract saw a decline with reduced open interest, with attention focused on the 60-day moving average support. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions decreased among the top 20 holders, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. Iron ore valuations may shift downwards in the short term, but the downside is limited until pig iron production declines significantly. ⑶ Coking Coal: Volatile. Although some suspended mines have resumed production, stricter safety regulations and reluctance to sell by intermediaries mean that short-term supply shortages are unlikely to change, and coking coal spot prices continue to be relatively strong. In terms of capital flows, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders continued to decrease, with short positions seeing a larger reduction. Technically, the September coking coal contract saw a mix of declines and rebounds due to reduced open interest, with short-term support around 1225 yuan/ton and resistance around 1288 yuan/ton. The ongoing struggle between safety regulations and supply guarantees, coupled with June's safety production month and power plant restocking, will continue to drive coal prices upwards, but caution is needed as thermal coal prices have exceeded the policy guidance price ceiling, potentially facing regulatory intervention with the peak summer season approaching. ⑷ Coke: Valuation shows support. The sharp rise in raw material prices has pushed up the immediate costs of coking plants, forcing some to reduce production and leading to a marginal decline in coke output. Pig iron production remains high, with strong demand providing support. Driven by strong cost pressures, coking plants are preparing for a fifth round of price increases. After the fourth round of price increases was fully implemented, the corresponding warehouse receipt cost was 1880 yuan/ton. Coupled with the expectation of further price increases, the valuation support for the futures market is gradually emerging. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fluctuating. Manganese ore shipments continued to decline, port manganese ore inventories shifted from increase to decrease, and plant operating rates rebounded slightly but remained low. The mentality of pressuring for lower manganese ore prices was prominent, and overall supply and demand remained weak and stable. In the short term, the futures market may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw coal. Technically, the manganese silicon 07 contract fell with reduced open interest. Support is expected at the 20-day moving average, while resistance may be around the 6100 psychological level.

20:30:02

The change in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April in the United States

Previous : -0.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.14

Previous

19:55:11

[Wet Weather Continues in the US Plains Winter Wheat Belt; Rainfall Expected to Remain Above Normal in the Midwest and Southern Plains Over the Next 10 Days] ⑴ Over the past week, temperatures in the US Plains and Midwest were 1 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, while the West and Southeast experienced 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Rainfall was 10 to 85 millimeters above normal in the Plains and Southeast, and 5 to 15 millimeters below normal in the rest of the country. ⑵ Over the next 10 days, temperatures in the West and Northern Plains are expected to be 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, while the rest of the US is expected to be about 1 degree Fahrenheit cooler. From day 11 to day 15, temperatures in most of the US are expected to be 3 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, with the Far Northeast potentially 1 degree Fahrenheit cooler. ⑶ Regarding rainfall, the wet weather will be confined to the Central and Southern Plains, with rainfall 10 to 50 millimeters above normal, while the rest of the country is expected to experience 10 to 60 millimeters below normal. (4) From a crop impact perspective, wet conditions are favorable for winter wheat growth in the northern and southern plains, while drier weather supports corn and soybean planting in the northern plains and the Midwest. The Arctic Oscillation will remain neutral to positive over the next two weeks, continuing to support a mixed weather pattern in the United States. (5) While continued wet conditions in the winter wheat belt are beneficial for current crop growth, excessive moisture may increase disease risk. Meanwhile, dry weather in major corn and soybean producing areas will help advance spring planting. The market will closely monitor the impact of subsequent weather developments on the USDA crop rating report.

19:47:07

[National Energy Administration Holds Symposium for Private Enterprises] On May 25, the National Energy Administration (NEA) held a symposium for private enterprises in the energy sector to solicit opinions and suggestions on strengthening the leading role of enterprises in technological innovation, encouraging and supporting private enterprises to carry out energy technology innovation, and initiating discussions on these topics. Representatives from enterprises in the fields of wind power, solar energy, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and digital intelligence attended the symposium. Wang Hongzhi, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Director of the NEA, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Song Hongkun, Member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the NEA, presided over the meeting. At the meeting, the representatives of the participating enterprises introduced their companies' energy technology innovation situation, as well as the opportunities and challenges they currently face, based on their actual production and operation. They expressed that energy technology innovation is currently entering a period of intensive activity, and with the support of national policies, enterprises have strong innovation momentum and are confident in playing a greater role in the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. They also put forward many practical policy suggestions on improving standards and regulations, expanding the application scenarios of "artificial intelligence +" in energy, and improving the collaborative innovation mechanism between industry, academia, and research. (National Energy Administration)

19:31:35

Foreign direct investment in Brazil in April

Previous : 60.37 Forecast : 54

Published Value 89.12

Previous

19:31:34

Brazil's current account for April

Previous : -60.36 Forecast : -2

Published Value -17.65

Previous

19:30:25

[National Energy Administration Holds National On-site Promotion Meeting on "Artificial Intelligence+" in Energy] On May 26, the National Energy Administration held a national on-site promotion meeting on "Artificial Intelligence+" in energy in Shenzhen. At the meeting, the National Energy Administration interpreted and deployed the "Action Plan on Promoting the Two-Way Empowerment of Artificial Intelligence and Energy" and the "Special Action Plan for Comprehensively Improving Power Supply Quality and Serving the Development of New Productivity (2026-2028)," released the "China 'Artificial Intelligence+' Energy Development Report 2026," and identified 51 high-value "Artificial Intelligence+" energy scenarios. 25 energy companies signed the "Initiative on Opening Up High-Value Application Scenarios of Artificial Intelligence in the Energy Sector." The meeting emphasized that artificial intelligence is an important engine for building a strong energy nation and developing new energy productivity. It stressed the need to thoroughly implement the major decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, seize the strategic opportunities of global artificial intelligence development, continuously deepen the opening up of energy application scenarios, focus on breakthroughs in key core technologies, promote efficient collaboration between computing power and electricity, actively create a favorable atmosphere of ecological co-construction, resource sharing, value co-creation, and future win-win, and promote the formation of a new pattern of two-way empowerment and integrated development of artificial intelligence and energy. (National Energy Administration)

19:04:32

[UK Entry-Level Jobs "Sharply Decline," Next Owner Says Tax Policy Pushes Youth Unemployment to 14.7%] ⑴ Lord Wolfson, owner of the British retailer Next, warned that government tax policies have led to a "sharp decline" in entry-level jobs. The company received 10 applications per store last year, but that number has almost doubled to 19 now, reflecting the severity of the current youth unemployment crisis. ⑵ Data released last week by the UK Office for National Statistics showed that the unemployment rate for the 18-24 age group has risen to 14.7%, the highest level since 2014. The overall unemployment rate was 5% in the three months to March. ⑶ Wolfson attributed the lack of entry-level opportunities to the Chancellor's decision to increase employers' National Insurance contributions, a policy that will take effect in April 2025, along with a simultaneous increase in the minimum wage. He pointed out that when jobs decrease, the least experienced young people are the most affected. (4) WPI Strategy's analysis of employment data shows that since the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £25 billion National Insurance tax and a minimum wage increase in October 2024, the number of employees aged 34 and under has decreased by 296,000, while the number of employees aged 35 and over has increased by 18,000. (5) Retail and hospitality are typically the primary channels for young people to enter the workforce for the first time, but rising labor costs are making it difficult for businesses to create low-paying part-time jobs. Despite Next raising its full-year profit forecast to £1.2 billion and reporting a 6.2% increase in sales for the first three months, Wolfson stated that store staff numbers have decreased and the annual payroll bill has increased by £70 million. The Employment Rights Act effectively bans zero-hour contracts, further posing a challenge to the seasonal staffing needs of the retail sector.

19:01:26

[The 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield spread hit 80 basis points, the narrowest level since June 2025; the 30-year yield rose to 5.20%, a new high since 2007] ⑴ On Tuesday, the spread between the 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields narrowed to 80 basis points, the lowest level since June 2025. Previous historical lows included 79 basis points in June 2025 and 74 basis points in May. The spread has temporarily stabilized after a slight reversal, with resistance at 84-85 basis points, followed by trend resistance at 88 basis points. ⑵ The 5-year yield touched a high of 4.35% last week, the highest since February 2025, before pulling back. Current support is at 4.15%, with trend support around 4.08%. (3) The 30-year yield rose to a high of 5.20% last week, the highest level since 2007, when it peaked at 5.45%. Currently, the 30-year yield is holding steady above 5.00%, with trend support at 4.99%. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, the continued flattening of the yield curve reflects market pricing in tightening monetary policy and concerns about inflation stickiness. Short-term interest rates are supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, while long-term rates are fluctuating between economic growth expectations and geopolitical risks. Whether long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and insurance companies will enter the market after the 30-year yield breaks through the 5% mark is worth watching. (5) Future attention should be paid to the guidance of US PCE inflation data on the interest rate path. If inflation data is higher than expected, long-term yields may further test the 2007 high, and the flattening trend of the curve may continue. If the data is weaker, there is a possibility of a corrective widening of the interest rate spread.

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