2026-02-17 Tuesday
2026-02-22
23:00:02
The NAHB Housing Market Index for the United States in February
Previous
:
37
Forecast
:
38
Published Value
36
Previous
22:51:01
[US Labor Market Strengthens in January] Data released by The Conference Board on February 17 showed that the US labor market strengthened in January, with healthy job growth and a near-balance between supply and demand, resulting in a strong performance in its Employment Trends Index (ETI). Specifically, the ETI rose to 105.06 in January, while the December figure was revised upward to 104.51. As a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, a rise in the ETI usually suggests an increase in future job creation. Economist Mitchell Barnes of The Conference Board stated that the rise in the ETI reflects the better-than-expected jobs report for the month, indicating that current unemployment and layoffs are moderate. Although hiring is expected to be flat in 2025, the labor market remains in a balanced range. The rebound in the ETI was mainly due to a decrease in unemployment insurance claims, a decline in the proportion of involuntary part-time workers, easing employment pressure, and improved job quality. However, concerns remain regarding the recovery: the proportion of consumers who felt it was difficult to find work rose to 20.8% in January, a new high since the beginning of 2021, reflecting weak consumer confidence and insufficient hiring intentions from businesses, which diverges from the employment data. Barnes points out that while the hard indicators of the labor market are solid, market confidence is negative, and this divergence may indicate that the future recovery remains uncertain.
22:46:53
【Wash may hope the Fed will shrink its balance sheet, but this may be difficult to achieve】 (1) Although Warsh, who has been nominated to be the Fed chairman, hopes to shrink the Fed's balance sheet, this goal may be difficult to achieve without major reforms to the financial system. The Fed's current monetary policy mechanism relies on the banking system holding a large amount of funds. The liquidity of the financial system and the use of regulatory tools determine the limit of its asset size reduction, and it is necessary to maintain the stability of the money market. (2) Experts warn that a large-scale balance sheet reduction may trigger market turmoil. Analysts at the Bank of Montreal said that unless regulatory reforms reduce banks' demand for reserves, a significant balance sheet reduction is unrealistic, and the reforms will take several quarters to take effect. Other scholars pointed out that a large-scale balance sheet reduction under the current framework will expose the short-term market to huge volatility risks, which is not worth the effort. (3) Warsh was nominated by the Trump administration at the end of last month and has long criticized the Fed's balance sheet for being too large. Since the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has purchased bonds on a large scale, with the asset size reaching a peak of $9 trillion. After two rounds of balance sheet reduction, it has dropped to the current $6.7 trillion, but it is still far higher than the level before the bond purchases. Warsh believes that the huge asset size distorts the financial market and advocates further balance sheet reduction to release liquidity. (4) However, his demands face multiple challenges: the banking system needs to maintain high reserves, and withdrawing liquidity could lead to the federal funds rate spiraling out of control. Morgan Stanley points out that while rule adjustments can reduce liquidity demand, they will exacerbate financial stability risks; JPMorgan Chase also believes that even with strengthened liquidity support mechanisms, the possibility of the Federal Reserve restarting balance sheet reduction remains small. Most observers believe that financial realities will inhibit Warsh's ability to drive significant changes.
22:44:09
[Weak UK Employment Data Extends Sterling Losses] Following weak UK employment data, the pound fell further, hitting a four-week low against the euro, as market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut as early as March intensified. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in the three months to December 2025, while wage growth slowed simultaneously, indicating a faster-than-expected cooling in the labor market. Monex Europe analysts pointed out that the current data reinforces the downside risks for the pound, and if Wednesday's UK January inflation data meets expectations and slows to 3.0%, the pound may face further downward pressure. In the currency market, the euro rose to a high of 0.8743 against the pound; according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the pound fell to 1.3516 against the dollar, a new low in 11 days.
22:26:13
[US Treasury yields fluctuated only slightly after the US market resumed trading] (1) After the US President's Day holiday, US Treasury yields returned to trading, and the overall trend was not very volatile. (2) In terms of data, the New York Fed's February Empire State Manufacturing Sentiment Index fell slightly to 7.1 from 7.7 in January, lower than the market expectation of 10.0. This week, important economic data will be released one after another: the December US housing starts data will be released tomorrow; the number of initial jobless claims released on Thursday is expected to fall from 227,000 to 220,000; the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released on Friday, and the market generally expects its year-on-year increase to be the same as in November, remaining at 2.8%. (3) According to the CME Group interest rate futures pricing, the current market expectation is that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at the March meeting has risen to 90%. (4) In terms of specific performance of the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds was 4.037%, lower than the previous trading day's 4.055%; the yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose slightly from 3.409% to 3.416%.
22:07:32
[Goursby: Concerns Remain About Falling Inflation; Multiple Rate Cuts Possible in 2026] ⑴ Chicago Fed President Goolsby said on Tuesday that the recent decline in overall inflation is partly attributable to base effects, while inflation in the services sector is "not mild." He pointed out that prices of goods with higher tariff content tend to rise more sharply, adding uncertainty to the future path of inflation. ⑵ Regarding monetary policy, Goolsby believes that multiple rate cuts are still possible in 2026, and related discussions are currently underway to address the recovery in inflation. He emphasized that more evidence is needed to show that inflation is consistently falling back to the 2% target level. ⑶ Regarding the assessment of the neutral interest rate, Goolsby considers the 3% policy rate a "rough" estimate. This statement suggests that the current interest rate level may be close to neutral, providing room for future rate cuts. ⑷ When discussing the selection of a Fed Chair, Goolsby said he has known candidate Kevin Warsh for a long time, worked with him during the financial crisis, and called himself a "loyal fan" of Warsh. This statement shows that even though policy stances may differ, the Federal Reserve still recognizes Warsh's professional competence.
22:07:11
[US-Iran Geneva Talks Make Progress, Both Sides Reach "Understanding" on Key Principles] ⑴ Iran's Foreign Minister stated in Geneva on Tuesday that Iran and the US have reached an "understanding" on key principles. He noted that the talks had made "good progress" compared to the previous round of negotiations, and the two sides will begin drafting and exchanging documents on a potential agreement. ⑵ However, the Iranian Foreign Minister also cautiously stated that there are still issues that need further consultation. "This does not mean we will reach an agreement quickly, but the path has been opened." This statement indicates that although the negotiations have made breakthrough progress, a final agreement is still some distance away. ⑶ These talks were held against the backdrop of the US strengthening its military deployment in the Middle East. Just one day before the talks, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily closed some sections of the strait for "security precautions." ⑷ The market is closely watching the subsequent developments of the negotiations. If an agreement is ultimately reached, it could lead to the easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, thereby affecting the global crude oil supply pattern. However, at present, the two sides still need to conduct further consultations on technical details.
21:48:04
Canada's January CPI reading
Previous
:
165%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
165%
Previous
21:47:44
Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for January
Previous
:
2.34%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.21%
Previous
21:47:19
[US MBS Spreads Trapped in a "Price Discovery" Dilemma] ⑴ On Tuesday, the flattening trend in US Treasury bonds continued, with the market repricing after the holiday. Dragged down by risk aversion in global stock markets and AI-related sell-offs, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.018%, a new low since November 28th of last year. However, the MBS spread lagged significantly, finding itself in a "price discovery" predicament against the backdrop of mortgage rates nearing recent lows. ⑵ On the macro level, the market is digesting multiple signals. Japan's fourth-quarter GDP fell far short of expectations, providing justification for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's aggressive fiscal stimulus, but a Treasury report warned that bond issuance could surge by 28% within three years, raising concerns about debt sustainability. Weak UK employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to a five-year high, has pushed market bets on a Bank of England rate cut in March to 75%. ⑶ Domestically, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released today. The focus this week includes the Fed meeting minutes, the revised fourth-quarter GDP figure, and PCE inflation data. In addition, the Treasury Department will issue $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds and $9 billion in 30-year TIPS this week. (4) Geopolitical and policy risks are also a major concern. The US-Iran Geneva talks and the naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz have drawn attention, and the Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs on Friday. Federal Reserve Governor Barr and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak today on AI and the labor market, and the market is looking for policy clues.
21:44:07
Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for January
Previous
:
2.34%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.21%
Previous
21:43:56
Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for January
Previous
:
2.34%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.28%
Previous
21:40:43
[US Treasury Bull Market Continues to Flatten, MBS Spreads Trapped in "Price Discovery" Dilemma] ⑴ On Tuesday, the strong bull market in US Treasuries continued its flattening trend, with the market repricing after the holiday. Dragged down by risk aversion in global stock markets and AI-related sell-offs, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.018%, a new low since November 28th of last year. However, the MBS spread lagged significantly, finding itself in an awkward "price discovery" situation against the backdrop of mortgage rates nearing recent lows. ⑵ On the macro level, the market is digesting multiple signals. Japan's fourth-quarter GDP fell far short of expectations, providing justification for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's aggressive fiscal stimulus, but a Treasury report warned that bond issuance could surge by 28% within three years, raising concerns about debt sustainability. Weak UK employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to a five-year high, has led to a 75% market bet on a Bank of England rate cut in March. ⑶ Domestically, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released today. This week's focus includes the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the revised Q4 GDP figure, and PCE inflation data. Additionally, the Treasury will issue $16 billion in 20-year Treasury bonds and $9 billion in 30-year TIPS this week. (4) Geopolitical and policy risks are also a major concern. The US-Iran Geneva talks and the naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz have drawn attention, and the Supreme Court may rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs on Friday. Federal Reserve Governor Barr and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak today on AI and the labor market, with the market hoping for policy clues.
21:39:45
Canadian investors net purchased overseas securities in December
Previous
:
164.90
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
130.60
Previous
21:39:44
In December, overseas investors net purchased Canadian securities
Previous
:
163.30
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-55.70
Previous
21:38:42
[Canadian Inflation Slows to 2.3% in January, Core CPI Cools Simultaneously] ⑴ Statistics Canada released data on Tuesday showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in January, a slowdown from December's 2.4% and slightly below market expectations. Month-on-month, the CPI remained unchanged. ⑵ Declining energy prices were the main factor driving the slowdown in inflation, with energy prices falling 10.9% year-on-year in January, a further widening of the decline from December's 8.8%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.4% year-on-year, also lower than the previous value of 2.5%. ⑶ Core inflation indicators monitored by the Bank of Canada all declined: the average annual CPI fell to 2.7%, the median CPI fell to 2.5%, and the cut-off mean CPI fell to 2.4%, all lower than in December. After seasonal adjustment, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in January, unchanged from the previous month. (4) Looking at the breakdown, goods prices rose 0.9% year-on-year (previous value 1.2%), while service prices rose 3.4% year-on-year (previous value 3.3%). The moderate decline in inflation data provides the Bank of Canada with more room for further policy adjustments. The market will focus on upcoming retail sales and other data to further assess the economic trend.
21:38:28
[US February New York Fed Manufacturing Index Slightly Declines, But Employment and Expectations Improve Significantly] ⑴ Data released by the New York Fed on Tuesday showed that the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for February was +7.1, slightly lower than January's +7.7, but higher than the market expectation of +6.98. The new orders index slightly decreased from +6.6 in January to +5.8, indicating a slight slowdown in the pace of expansion in manufacturing activity. ⑵ Labor market indicators improved significantly. The employment index rebounded sharply from -9.0 in January to +4.0, returning to expansion territory after a month, indicating a significant improvement in manufacturing employment in the region. ⑶ Businesses are more optimistic about the next six months. The business conditions index for the next six months rose to +34.7 in February, higher than January's +30.3, indicating that manufacturers' confidence in the medium-term outlook has strengthened. ⑷ Inflationary pressures have risen somewhat. The prices paid index jumped from +42.8 in January to +49.1, a recent high, indicating that businesses are facing increasing cost pressures. The market will be watching to see if this trend will translate into subsequent consumer prices.
21:37:16
Canada's core CPI monthly rate for January - seasonally adjusted
Previous
:
0.20%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.30%
Previous
21:36:48
Canada's core CPI for January - weighted median annual rate
Previous
:
2.50%
Forecast
:
2.50%
Published Value
2.60%
Previous
21:36:19
The New York Fed's Manufacturing Price Payment Index for February in the United States
Previous
:
46.90
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
49.10
Previous
21:36:10
The New York Fed's manufacturing outlook Index for the next six months in February
Previous
:
30.30
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
34.70
Previous
21:35:23
Canada's wholesale sales monthly rate for December
Previous
:
-1.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2%
Previous
21:35:09
Canada's wholesale inventory monthly rate for December
Previous
:
0.60%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.60%
Previous
21:35:05
Canada's wholesale inventory year-on-year rate for December
Previous
:
8%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
8.10%
Previous
21:35:00
Canada's annual rate of wholesale sales in December
Previous
:
1%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.40%
Previous
21:34:26
Canada's unadjusted CPI monthly rate for January
Previous
:
-0.20%
Forecast
:
0.10%
Published Value
0%
Previous
21:31:53
Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate for January
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.10%
Previous
21:31:52
Canada's core CPI year-on-year rate for January - unadjusted seasonally
Previous
:
2.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.60%
Previous
21:31:51
Canada's central bank core CPI monthly rate for January
Previous
:
-0.40%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.20%
Previous
21:31:50
Canada's core CPI for January - truncated adjusted annual rate
Previous
:
2.70%
Forecast
:
2.60%
Published Value
2.40%
Previous
21:31:49
Canada's core CPI for January - ordinary annual rate
Previous
:
2.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.70%
Previous
21:31:48
Canada's unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for January
Previous
:
2.40%
Forecast
:
2.40%
Published Value
2.30%
Previous
21:31:47
The New York Fed's manufacturing price acquisition index for February in the United States
Previous
:
14.40
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
22.20
Previous
21:31:41
The New York Fed's manufacturing New Orders Index for February in the United States
Previous
:
6.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
5.80
Previous
21:31:35
The New York Fed's manufacturing Employment Index for February in the United States
Previous
:
-9
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
4
Previous
21:31:26
The New York Fed's manufacturing Index for the United States in February
Previous
:
7.70
Forecast
:
6
Published Value
7.10
Previous
21:25:14
[Profit-taking by bulls sends US wheat and soybeans retreating from multi-month highs] ⑴ Chicago wheat and soybean futures fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, moving further away from the multi-month highs reached last week. Ample global supplies put pressure on wheat, while the Lunar New Year holiday in China, the largest importer, dampened short-term buying enthusiasm in the soybean market. Corn also retreated slightly after two consecutive days of gains. ⑵ As of press time, the CBOT wheat futures contract fell 1.8% to $5.39 per bushel, after hitting its highest level since November 20 last Thursday due to short covering. Soybeans dipped 0.2% to $11.30-3/4 per bushel, after hovering near their highest level since December 1. Corn fell 0.6% to $4.29 per bushel. ⑶ The market is awaiting concrete buying action to validate previous optimistic expectations. Earlier this month, news that China was considering buying more US soybeans and that the US-China trade truce might be extended boosted soybean prices. However, analysts point out that the Chinese New Year holiday will dampen recent import activity, and coupled with the start of Ramadan this week, demand from some major grain-importing countries may generally slow down. (4) In the wheat market, last Friday, consulting firm IKAR raised its 2026 Russian wheat production forecast by 3 million tons, and India announced it would allow the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat, shifting market focus back to the fundamentals of ample global supply. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the progress of the US-Iran talks and the new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
21:23:48
[Tunisia Tenders for 25,000 Tons of Feed Corn, Lowest Bid Around $257/Ton] ⑴ According to European traders on Tuesday, the Tunisian National Grain Agency is holding an international tender to purchase approximately 25,000 tons of animal feed corn. Bids were submitted on the same day and are currently under evaluation; no deals have been reported yet. ⑵ Traders stated that the lowest bid received was approximately $256.99 per ton, including cost and freight. Initially, it was reported that the tenderer was a private buyer, but this was later corrected to the National Grain Agency. ⑶ According to the tender requirements, the corn will be shipped in one lot, with shipping dates between March 1st and March 30th, depending on the origin. It is understood that eight traders participated in the bidding.
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