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2025-09-15 Monday

2025-09-19

20:00:38

Canada's National economic confidence Index for the week ending September 12

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 51.16

Previous

20:00:32

Brazil's IBC-BR Economic Activity index monthly rate for July

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.50%

Previous

19:48:33

[Goldman Sachs Strategy Team: US Stocks Expected to See a New Round of Accelerated Growth in 2026] (1) On Monday, Goldman Sachs' strategists recently noted that the US stock market has gradually mitigated the impact of weak labor market data and predicted that US stock prices will see a new round of accelerated growth in 2026. The team, led by David Kostin, stated that market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased this week, a factor that will further support the stock market. (2) The team added that stock investors are generally optimistic about the labor market and believe that the recent slowdown is only temporary. They emphasized that the cooling labor market is actually a "tailwind for corporate profits"—profit margins essentially reflect the difference between prices and input costs (including labor costs). According to estimates, every 100 basis point change in labor cost growth will have a 0.7% impact on S&P 500 earnings per share. Furthermore, the moderate cooling of the labor market also creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to begin a cycle of rate cuts. (3) Notably, this assessment echoes Goldman Sachs' overall expectation of a soft landing for the US economy. The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement three interest rate cuts in 2025. The Goldman Sachs team believes that with the implementation of interest rate cuts and the recovery of economic growth momentum, the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve a 6% increase by mid-2026. This forecast is based on the outlook for 7% corporate earnings growth in 2026.

19:45:28

[2025 China Top 500 Enterprises List Announced: JD.com Ranks in the Top Ten, State-Owned and Private Enterprises Roughly Even] ⑴ On Monday, the China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneur Association released their "China Top 500 Enterprises" list for the 24th consecutive year. The list, based on 2024 operating revenue, features roughly equal numbers of state-owned and private enterprises, with 251 and 249 companies respectively. The total revenue of the top 500 companies reached 110.15 trillion yuan, with the entry threshold rising for 23 consecutive years to 479.60 billion yuan, an increase of 579 million yuan from the previous year. Total net profit attributable to parent companies reached 4.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%. Total assets increased to 460.85 trillion yuan, a 7.46% increase. ⑵ The list shows that the number of companies with revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan has expanded to 267, with 15 exceeding 1 trillion yuan in revenue. State Grid Corporation of China retained the top spot with nearly 4 trillion yuan in revenue, followed closely by China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and China Construction Corporation, all with revenue exceeding 2 trillion yuan. In the top ten list, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and China Railway Engineering Group ranked fifth to ninth, respectively. JD.com ranked tenth with a revenue of approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, rising three places from the previous year and becoming the only private Internet company in the top ten. (3) In terms of industry distribution, the technology and automotive sectors performed outstandingly. Technology companies such as Alibaba (17), Huawei (23), and Tencent (31) entered the top 100, among which Huawei's R&D investment of 179.687 billion yuan accounted for nearly one-tenth of the total R&D investment of the top 500; in the automotive field, BYD ranked highest (26), and traditional car companies such as SAIC and Geely also made it into the top 100.

19:32:19

[Market Volatility Intensifies: Multiple Gameplay Amidst the Fed's Decision, Sovereign Ratings, and Data Storm] ⑴ This week's market focus will be on the Federal Funds rate meeting. While the consensus is for a 25 basis point cut, there are dissenting voices, with three or more members potentially favoring a 50 basis point cut or even holding the rate steady. The key will be the "dot plot"'s projections for the number of rate cuts in 2025. If the market is pricing in three cuts, it could offer a sell-on-the-rise opportunity, while if it anticipates two cuts, it could provide a buying opportunity. ⑵ Following the French sovereign rating downgrade, while the market has priced in some of the negative impact, the ratings reviews by Moody's and S&P are still on the horizon, potentially triggering renewed market volatility and putting pressure on long-term bond yields in particular. Tuesday's US August retail sales data will serve as a gauge of consumer spending power, while the results of the 20-year Treasury bond auction this afternoon will also be worth watching. ⑶ While this week's data storm centers around the Fed's policy announcement, the data surrounding it also poses risks. Tuesday's retail sales data and 20-year Treasury auction, as well as Thursday's unemployment benefits data and 10-year TIPS auction, could all impact market sentiment. Technically, the 10-year Treasury yield is likely to fluctuate between 4.08% and 4.04%, while the 2-year Treasury yield is likely to face selling pressure around 3.50%. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff rhetoric continues to fuel market concerns, particularly as the impact of tariffs implemented earlier in August becomes apparent. The New York Fed's August manufacturing survey is expected to show a decline in the business activity index from 11.9 to 5.0, indicating signs of cost pressures and slowing economic activity.

19:13:27

The final value of India's exports in USD for August

Previous : 645.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 615.90

Previous

19:13:24

The final value of India's imports in August in USD

Previous : 372.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 351

Previous

19:13:24

The final reading of India's government trade deficit in USD for August

Previous : 273.50 Forecast : 251.30

Published Value 264.90

Previous

19:01:35

[Global Asset Bubble Alert: Potential Crisis Beneath the False Boom] ⑴ The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently warned that global stock market valuations have reached historically high levels, contrasting sharply with growing concerns in the bond market about government debt sustainability. Risk premiums on 30-year government bonds in major economies have risen significantly this year, indicating deepening market concerns about the fiscal outlook. ⑵ BIS analysis shows that highly leveraged investors, such as hedge funds, are increasingly absorbing government bond issuance, posing a potential amplification risk in the market. Even if debt levels do not exceed textbook "sustainable" levels, a crisis could erupt. Despite previous downgrades of the US credit rating and France's sovereign rating, global investors have shown no signs of a large-scale withdrawal from US assets. ⑶ The agency noted that given global investors' substantial holdings of US assets and the slow adjustment of asset allocation decisions and directives, any significant portfolio shifts would likely be gradual. Previously, US tariff rhetoric had a smaller impact on the market than expected, failing to trigger the anticipated turmoil. ⑷ In addition, a global household inflation expectations survey by the BIS showed that post-epidemic price increases have significantly pushed up household inflation expectations, especially in countries with larger price increases, which has raised concerns about the lasting impact of short-term inflation surges. However, it is worth noting that households generally believe that the inflation problem is not caused by the central bank and support the central bank's independence from the government. ⑸ At present, some economies, especially the labor market in the United States, are showing signs of cooling. If this trend continues, given that stock market valuations are close to historical peaks and corporate bond spreads are extremely narrow, the market reaction deserves close attention. The weakening correlation between the US dollar trend and interest rate differentials, as well as the strong rise in the stock market when the US dollar rebounded in July, show that the current financial conditions are abnormally loose, and their potential release will be a risk point that the market needs to be vigilant about in the future.

18:53:12

[Euro Under Pressure! France's Rating Downgrade Triggers Risk Aversion, US Dollar Index Shows Weakness] ⑴ On Monday, the euro fell slightly by 0.19% against the US dollar, dragged down by the downgrade of France's sovereign rating. This rating adjustment has heightened investor concerns about the Eurozone and may trigger a round of risk aversion. ⑵ Meanwhile, the US dollar fell slightly by 0.22% against the Japanese yen, while the British pound rose by 0.43% against the US dollar and the Australian dollar rose by 0.17% against the US dollar, demonstrating a divergence in investor risk appetite across currencies ahead of the crucial Federal Reserve meeting. ⑶ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting, and this expectation is affecting the dollar's appeal. Institutional analysts point out that if the Fed's rate cuts exceed expectations, the US dollar may face a more significant reaction. ⑷ Although the US dollar index has stabilized since its record drop at the beginning of the year, speculative short positions have not yet accumulated to a level sufficient to prevent further declines in the coming weeks or months. Data shows that as of the week of September 9, net short positions in the US dollar held by speculators in the international currency market rose to $5.71 billion, but remained well below the peak of $18.63 billion in June 2025. (5) Economic data also provides room for the US dollar to fall. Recent weak employment data has created the possibility of more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further weaken the US dollar's yield advantage and continue its downward trend.

18:16:14

[Federal Reserve Decision Week Begins: US Stock Futures Hesitant, Rate Cut Expectations Intertwined with Geopolitical Risks] ⑴ US stock futures opened flat on Monday, with Dow Jones futures edging up 0.23%, S&P 500 futures up just 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.09%, as the market settled into a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed's interest rate meeting. ⑵ Institutional data shows that investors expect the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, and the market has priced in a cumulative 69.6 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, suggesting a potential rate cut at each of the remaining meetings this year. ⑶ Jefferies economists suggest that Fed Chairman Powell may not be more dovish than market expectations at this meeting, and may even emphasize inflation risks and the uncertainty raised by Trump's tariff rhetoric, thereby curbing market expectations of excessive easing. ⑷ Nvidia's stock plummeted 2.8% in pre-market trading after Chinese market regulators announced an ongoing antitrust investigation. This move, coinciding with US-China trade talks in Spain, exacerbated pressure on technology stocks. ⑸ Although historical data shows that the average performance of US stocks in September is weak (the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1.5% in the month since 2000), major indices have continued to rise so far in September this year, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 even hitting record intraday highs last Friday. ⑹ The retail sales data to be released on Tuesday is the last key indicator before the Federal Reserve's decision and may provide further clues to the health of the US consumer. Previously, inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, causing market volatility. ⑺ Warner Bros. Discovery plummeted 4.1% in pre-market trading due to rumors that Paramount Skydance is planning to launch a takeover bid for it. The stock has soared by more than 50% since Thursday, indicating that merger and acquisition news continues to disrupt individual stock market trends.

18:11:44

The total reserve assets of the eurozone in August

Previous : 14989.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 15078.50

Previous

18:03:39

[Iraqi Oilfield Giant Emerges, Trillion-Dollar Energy Project Captures Global Attention] ⑴ French energy giant Total Energy is accelerating its $27 billion integrated energy project in Iraq, which has entered the final stages of development. According to agency news, the project aims to significantly increase Iraq's oil, natural gas, and electricity production, while reducing its dependence on energy imports from neighboring countries and attracting foreign investment. ⑵ Total Energy has launched the second phase of development of its Ratawi oil field in Iraq and begun construction of a supporting seawater treatment plant. The first phase of the project, which began in late 2023, is expected to increase crude oil production to 120,000 barrels per day by early next year. The second phase will nearly double production to 210,000 barrels per day by 2028 and completely eliminate routine natural gas flaring. ⑶ Agency data indicates that the project will be jointly led by Total Energy (45%), Iraq's National Petroleum Corporation (30%), and Qatar Energy (25%). Turkey's ENKA Construction Company and South Korea's Hyundai Engineering & Construction will be responsible for constructing oil and gas processing facilities with a daily production capacity of 210,000 barrels of oil and 163 million cubic feet of natural gas, respectively, as well as a seawater treatment plant with a daily processing capacity of 5 million barrels. (4) Notably, the use of seawater instead of freshwater for water injection will effectively alleviate Iraq's water shortages. The project also includes a 1-gigawatt (GW) solar farm and supporting facilities for collecting associated gas from the oil fields and using it for power generation. This will help Iraq reduce its reliance on imported natural gas and electricity, which currently accounts for approximately 30% to 40% of its total demand, according to the agency. (5) In a meeting on Sunday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani welcomed the increase in foreign investment, marking significant progress in Iraq's efforts to attract long-term investment, which had previously faced challenges following a round of oil field development bidding more than a decade ago.

18:00:23

[Rate Cut Expectations Soar! Multiple Institutions Target a 25 Basis Point Cut, Market Sentiment Fluctuates] ⑴ The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut at this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with traders pricing in this at 94.2%. Data supports this expectation, with non-farm payroll growth slowing significantly in August and the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continue to moderate, indicating signs of a cooling economy. ⑵ While most institutions predict a 25 basis point cut, Standard Chartered Bank stands out, predicting a 50 basis point cut. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also joined the ranks, predicting a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut by year-end, demonstrating a rapidly diverging and strengthening market outlook for a shift in the Fed's monetary policy. ⑶ Market expectations for the Fed's policy path have shifted significantly toward easing. Institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays have all predicted three interest rate cuts in 2025, totaling 75 basis points, and anticipate the federal funds rate will fall to 3.50%-3.75% by year-end. This widespread expectation of loose policy could trigger significant market volatility if it deviates from the Fed's actual actions. Notably, some institutions have pointed out that continued Trump's tariff rhetoric could pose upside risks to inflation, undoubtedly increasing the complexity of the Fed's policy decisions. With inflation still not fully reaching target, significant rate cuts may be challenging. Market interpretation of the Fed's policies and the resulting shifts in trading psychology will be key areas of focus moving forward.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 3656.80

12.53

(0.34%)

XAG

 42.192

0.399

(0.95%)

CONC

 62.60

-0.66

(-1.04%)

OILC

 66.88

-0.58

(-0.86%)

USD

 97.516

0.160

(0.16%)

EURUSD

 1.1765

-0.0019

(-0.17%)

GBPUSD

 1.3502

-0.0052

(-0.39%)

USDCNH

 7.1133

0.0066

(0.09%)
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