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2026-07-14 Tuesday

2026-07-19

18:04:12

[Wash's Congressional Debut to Set the Tone for the Fed's Independent Path; Personnel Arrangements and Policy Rhetoric Signal Distancing from Trump] ⑴ Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and then the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. This will be his first public policy presentation to both houses of Congress since taking office in May. The market is closely watching how he will maintain Trump's trust while anchoring the boundaries of independent decision-making. ⑵ Early governance signals indicate that Warsh is deliberately distancing himself from traditional political interference. The special task force appointed last week is mainly composed of well-known economists, corporate executives, and former central bank officials, emphasizing professionalism and a neutral arbitrary role. It does not include ideological or partisan figures commonly found in other federal agencies. Johns Hopkins University professor and former senior advisor to Powell, Foster, commented that the first press conference has dispelled concerns that he will become a "puppet." (3) In terms of policy stance, Warsh did not submit interest rate forecasts at the June FOMC meeting and explicitly opposed forward guidance. The post-meeting statement indicated that only one policy proposal was discussed and no discussion of interest rate cuts took place. This contrasts sharply with the radical style of his predecessor, Milan, who advocated for interest rate cuts six times during his tenure and repeatedly expressed dissent. His personnel team also included Republican writers from the Bush administration and conservative policy analysts from Stanford University, but there were no signs of leaning towards the MAGA camp. (4) The current core contradiction lies in the fact that if inflation remains stubborn and pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates accumulates, the relationship between Warsh and the president will face a real test. Although Trump publicly demanded his "complete independence" at the inauguration, former Cleveland Fed President Mester pointed out that the sustainability of such a commitment remains to be seen, while former Powell advisor Foster believes that Warsh has the "luxury of space to step out of his initial position and take a long-term objective perspective." His historical positioning and re-election prospects depend on the balanced signals conveyed by this congressional hearing.

18:02:13

[US Small Business Optimism Index Nears 52-Year Average in June, But Inflation Concerns Rise to Nearly Two-Year High] ⑴ Data released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFI) showed that the Small Business Optimism Index rebounded 2.1 points month-on-month to 97.4 in June, approaching the 52-year historical average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points to 89, but remains well above the historical average of 68, reflecting a temporary boost to sentiment from the earlier decline in gasoline prices during the fragile US-Iran ceasefire. ⑵ However, inflationary pressures have once again become the core issue. 21% of business owners listed inflation as their most pressing problem, up 3 percentage points from May, reaching the highest level since October 2024. Meanwhile, the proportion of owners who reported raising their average selling price rose to 38%, the highest level since January 2023, and has continued to rise for four consecutive months, indicating that cost transmission is still ongoing. (3) The job market exhibits a supply-demand mismatch, with the proportion of unfilled job vacancies rebounding by 3 percentage points to 32%. Although the proportion planning price increases in the next three months has slightly decreased to 32%, supporting some economists' judgment that inflation may have peaked in May, high living costs are exacerbating the labor shortage. Respondents in Indiana's agriculture and California's retail sectors both pointed out that housing affordability issues directly constrain employee retention and hiring. (4) The June non-farm payroll data released this week already showed a significant slowdown in job growth. Meanwhile, gasoline prices rebounded to $3.87 per gallon after the renewed military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, adding uncertainty to small business operating costs and the outlook for end-user demand. It remains to be seen whether cost pressures will force more homeowners to translate their price increases into concrete actions, thereby affecting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path.

18:02:12

US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

Previous : 95.30 Forecast : 95.50

Published Value 97.40

Previous

17:38:11

[Asian Middle Distillate Crack Spreads Hit Three-Month Peak, Diesel and Jet Fuel Near-Month Premiums Widen to Two-Month Highs] ⑴ On Tuesday, the Asian diesel and jet fuel markets continued their strong performance, with inter-month spreads and crack spreads for both fuels climbing to near two-month highs. The benchmark 10ppm diesel crack margin surged further in the afternoon, closing at a three-month high of nearly $65 per barrel, while the spot premium also strengthened to a one-month peak of approximately $4.7 per barrel. ⑵ The spot premium for jet fuel was also significant. Last week, at least two Northeast Asian refineries finalized spot contracts for August shipments at premium prices, pushing the diesel-jet fuel spread index to a premium range of approximately $5 per barrel, the first time since early May, reflecting that the August jet fuel swap contracts were stronger than diesel. (3) In terms of supply and demand structure, some refineries are still pushing forward with the sale of export cargoes for the second half of August, while the export outlook for China in August remains uncertain. Although exports are expected to continue for the remainder of July, if current Asian prices continue to strengthen, some traders may redirect cargoes originally destined for the West back to the region, thus changing the flow of cross-regional arbitrage. (4) Geopolitical risk premiums continue to be injected. Two UAE oil tankers were attacked by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz, causing casualties. Coupled with the fact that Russia's seaborne refined oil exports in June plummeted by 27% month-on-month to 5.7 million tons due to the refinery attacks, supply-side disturbances are providing additional support for crack spreads. However, traders remain cautious about the East-West arbitrage window, and spot transactions are also limited. Further attention should be paid to US inventory data.

17:32:15

[South Africa's mining output unexpectedly plunged 5.4% in May, with gold and platinum group metals showing signs of recession] ⑴ Statistics South Africa released data on Tuesday showing that overall mining output in May fell sharply by 5.4% year-on-year, far below market expectations of a 1.5% increase. This represents a precipitous reversal from the revised 8.0% increase in April, marking the worst monthly performance in nearly a year. ⑵ All sub-sectors were under pressure, with gold production decreasing by 4.3% year-on-year and platinum group metals output also declining by 4.4%. April's gold data was also revised down to -0.4%, indicating that both precious metals and industrial metals sectors are in contraction, not just a temporary fluctuation in a single commodity. ⑶ From a fundamental perspective, South Africa's mining industry has long been constrained by structural factors such as rising deep-well mining costs, unstable power supply, and logistical bottlenecks. Furthermore, concerns about global trade frictions triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric have further suppressed demand expectations for industrial metals, creating an additional drag on the export-oriented platinum group metals industry. (4) Considering the high subscription multiple of yesterday's government bond auction and the contrast with today's mining data, the market is digesting the divergence between weak economic fundamentals and funds chasing high-yield assets. If subsequent manufacturing and retail data continue to confirm the downward trend, the rand exchange rate and the risk premium of South African assets may face repricing pressure.

17:32:14

South African mining output in May (unadjusted annual rate)

Previous : 8.20% Forecast : 1.50%

Published Value -5.40%

Previous

17:32:11

South Africa's gold production year-on-year rate in May

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value -4.30%

Previous

17:30:11

[ECB's Overnight Deposit Facility Absorbs €2 Trillion in Liquidity; Market Remains Cautiously Optimistic About Easing Stance] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) released its latest liquidity usage data on Tuesday. Financial institutions borrowed €36 million through the overnight lending facility, a significant decrease from the previous day's €150 million. Meanwhile, the overnight deposit facility absorbed €2.028268 billion, slightly lower than the previous day's €2.037559 billion, but still remaining at historically high levels. ⑵ Current account holdings have slightly decreased to €329.043 billion. Combined with the continued accumulation of massive amounts of funds in the deposit facility, this indicates that the Eurozone banking system remains extremely liquid. Institutions are more inclined to deposit excess cash with the central bank to obtain returns rather than actively lending it out or investing in risky assets. ⑶ From a trading psychology perspective, the coexistence of shrinking overnight lending demand and high deposit levels reflects a more stable market pricing in the ECB's policy interest rate path. Against the backdrop of concerns about global trade frictions triggered by Trump's tariff remarks, Eurozone financial institutions are choosing to hold highly liquid and safe assets to cope with potential external shocks. (4) The focus going forward is on whether the ECB can strike a balance between the balance sheet reduction process and maintaining ample liquidity. If geopolitical risks further push up energy prices, it may strengthen market expectations that the central bank will maintain an accommodative stance, thereby further suppressing the steepening of the money market yield curve.

17:24:11

[The Strait of Hormuz Transit Fee Plan Resurfaces, Geopolitical Premium May Re-anchor Energy Transportation Costs] ⑴ According to US media reports, White House officials confirmed that Trump is "very serious" about his plan to impose a 20% transit fee on goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and that the idea has been brewing for months. As early as April, Trump questioned why it wasn't being implemented and set a June deadline for its launch. Despite continued opposition within his inner circle, the president has recently revived this instinctive decision. ⑵ This plan is closely related to the current US-led maritime blockade of Iran, but the specific charging mechanism and whether consultations have been held with Gulf states remain unknown. White House officials admitted that details are still being finalized. Given Trump's previous tough stances on major trade and security issues without consistent implementation, there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether this plan will be implemented. (3) From a market psychology perspective, if this news triggers substantial concerns, it will directly increase the transportation premium for crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and commodities passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with the current situation where rubber, shipping, and other commodities are already supported by geopolitical risks, risk appetite may further shift towards assets benefiting from supply chain disruptions. (4) Two points need to be noted in terms of trading logic: first, the inconsistency in Trump's past policies may lead to fluctuations in expectations; second, if Gulf countries are not informed in advance, diplomatic obstacles at the implementation level may weaken the immediate impact of the news. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations and whether the White House issues a formal executive order.

16:58:14

[Rhine River Levels Plunge to Decades Low, German Industrial Chains Hit by Soaring Freight Rates and Halved Capacity] ⑴ A persistent heatwave across Europe has caused a sharp drop in the Rhine River's water level. On Monday, the water depth at the key pass of Kaub near Frankfurt was only 53 centimeters, the lowest recorded for this time of year in decades. This figure is far below the 80-centimeter full-load warning line, forcing barge operators to generally reduce their loading rates to about 20% of normal capacity. ⑵ The sharp drop in capacity has directly driven up transportation costs. According to surveys, the freight rate for oil tankers and barges from the Port of Rotterdam to Karlsruhe, a major industrial city in Germany, has surged from about €45 per ton at the end of June to the current €60 to €70, an increase of nearly 50%. Furthermore, navigation efficiency along the entire section of the Rhine from south of Duisburg to Cologne has been severely impaired. (3) The Rhine River, as Europe's busiest inland waterway, handles approximately 200 million tons of cargo and fuel transported annually to German factories. The current low water level crisis is significantly impacting the supply chains of commodities such as chemicals, energy, and minerals. Coupled with trade uncertainties stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric, the prospects for German industrial recovery are further complicated. (4) Historical experience shows that a similar drought in 2018 caused a 1.5% contraction in German industrial output, dragging down GDP by approximately 0.4 percentage points. This year, insufficient snowmelt from the Alps and Lake Constance's water level already at a historical low mean that subsequent replenishment is highly dependent on real-time rainfall. However, forecasts indicate that the drought is unlikely to ease substantially before this Friday. (5) Although some factories may seasonally reduce production during the summer to temporarily buffer transportation demand, the pressure on the distribution of refined oil products such as gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel continues to accumulate. If there is no significant rainfall in the next two weeks, the water level in the Kaub section may further challenge historical extremes, and the duration of supply chain disruptions may exceed market expectations.

16:46:13

[Japanese Rubber Prices Surge to Monthly High; Geopolitical Premiums and Reduced Production in Production Areas Provide Support for Bulls] ⑴ On Tuesday, Japanese rubber futures broke through key resistance levels, with the December contract on the Osaka Exchange closing up 1.57% at 427.6 yen/kg. Buying interest was primarily driven by soaring international oil prices, which reached a four-week high due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Upstream raw material supplies also showed signs of tightness. Malaysian natural rubber production in May fell sharply by 16.7% year-on-year to 20,198 tons, while inventories declined by 6.2% month-on-month to 122,658 tons. The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts heavy rainfall and flash floods in major producing areas from July 13th to 15th, potentially temporarily halting rubber tapping operations. (3) The synthetic rubber chain followed the price increase more significantly. The September butadiene rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed higher for the eighth consecutive day, with a single-day increase of 3.96% to RMB 13,390/ton. The near-month contract on Singapore's SICOM rose 1.3% to 217.3 US cents/kg, reflecting the strengthening transmission effect of crude oil costs. (4) In terms of market sentiment, concerns about global trade frictions triggered by Trump's tariff remarks have eased somewhat, and funds are refocusing on the real constraints on the supply side. Although February to May is the recovery period after the traditional low production season, extreme weather and geopolitical premiums are changing short-term supply and demand balance expectations. (5) It is necessary to monitor the actual extent of damage during the Thai rubber tapping window and the sustainability of crude oil risk premiums. If oil prices maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend, the upward trend of Shanghai rubber and Japanese rubber may continue, but the risk of amplified volatility at high levels should not be ignored.

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40.10

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0.395

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