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2026-02-16 Monday

2026-02-22

16:36:05

[Government Bond Yield Matrix: US, UK, and Australia Continue to Lead, Germany, France, and Japan Remain at Low Levels] ⑴ As of Monday, the divergence in global 10-year benchmark government bond yields continued. The US yield was 4.052%, followed by the UK at 4.411% and Australia at 4.719%, continuing to lead; Germany at 2.750%, France at 3.330%, and Italy at 3.352% were in the middle; Japan at 2.206% remained at the bottom. ⑵ Using Germany as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +196.9bp, UK +166.0bp, US +130.2bp; Japan -54.4bp, Denmark -13.9bp, and Sweden -9.0bp. ⑶ Using the US as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +66.7bp, UK +35.9bp; other major economies were all negative, with Japan -184.6bp, Denmark -144.1bp, Sweden -139.2bp, and Germany -130.2bp. (4) The 2-year yield also showed significant divergence. The US yield was 3.418%, the UK 3.582%, and Australia 4.220%; Germany 2.037%, France 2.161%, Italy 2.107%; and Japan 1.259%. (5) Using Germany as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +218.3bp, UK +154.5bp, and US +138.1bp; Japan -77.8bp, Denmark -15.9bp, and Sweden -15.8bp. (6) Using the US as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +80.2bp, UK +16.4bp; Canada -93.5bp, and other major economies all above -120bp, including Japan -215.9bp, Denmark -154.0bp, Sweden -153.9bp, and Germany -138.1bp. (7) From the yield matrix, the UK, US, and Australia continue to have high interest rates, reflecting the market's continued pricing in inflation and policy tightening; while the Eurozone and Japan remain relatively low, reflecting expectations of easing and weak economies. The interest rate differential structure shows that US dollar assets still have a significant premium relative to Eurozone and Japanese yen, while the British pound and Australian dollar maintain their status as high-yield currencies. (8) Looking ahead, attention needs to be paid to the divergence in the policy paths of central banks around the world. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the interest rate differential advantage of US Treasuries relative to Eurozone and Japanese yen may further widen; conversely, if Eurozone and Japanese yen unexpectedly reverse course, the current interest rate differential pattern will face reshaping.

16:15:18

[Production Visibility and Policy Clarity are Key Factors for Malaysia's Plantation Sector This Year] ⑴ TA Securities points out that production visibility, policy implementation, and capital return discipline are key factors for the performance of Malaysia's plantation sector this year. The brokerage believes that following the recovery after El Niño, the market will enter a more uncertain phase in the second half of the year. ⑵ Analyst Angeline Chin adds that the industry enters 2026 against a backdrop of volatile policies, climate risks, changes in trade flows, and lingering geopolitical tensions. She cites Indonesia's postponement of its mandatory blending policy for B50 biodiesel as an example. ⑶ Chin writes in the report that while structural demand for palm oil remains unchanged, prices are primarily driven by supply-side factors in the face of weather-related volatility. ⑷ TA Securities forecasts an average crude palm oil price of 4,000 ringgit per tonne in 2026 and maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's plantation sector. ⑸ From a market perspective, TA Securities' view points to the plantation sector transitioning from a clear recovery phase to a second half of the year with multiple uncertainties, and price drivers shifting from demand to supply, meaning that market volatility may intensify. ⑹ Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the final implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, weather developments in major producing areas, and the purchasing pace of major importing countries. These factors will determine the actual impact of supply on prices.

15:39:36

[India's Wholesale Inflation Surges to 1.81% in January, a 10-Month High, Led by Food and Metal Prices] ⑴ Data released by the Indian government on Monday showed that wholesale prices rose 1.81% year-on-year in January, the fastest pace in 10 months, mainly driven by a rebound in vegetable and base metal prices. The expected increase was 1.25%, compared to 0.83% previously. The last time wholesale inflation was higher was at 2.25% in March 2025. ⑵ Data showed that rising manufacturing costs for base metals, food, and textile prices all contributed to the increase in wholesale prices in January. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Baruda Bank, said that the global surge in metal prices, driven by the economic and political environment, has increased the cost of manufactured goods. ⑶ However, Sabnavis added that the higher reading will not have an impact on monetary policy. (4) Key data: Wholesale food prices rose 1.41% year-on-year, compared to no change in the previous month; vegetable prices rose 6.78% year-on-year, compared to a 3.5% decrease in the previous month; manufactured goods prices rose 2.86% year-on-year, compared to 1.82% in December; fuel and electricity prices fell 4.01% year-on-year, compared to a 2.31% decrease in December. (5) In terms of inflation structure, food and manufactured goods drove the rise in wholesale prices, but the decline in fuel prices partially offset the increase. The jump in wholesale inflation has not yet changed market expectations for central bank policy, as core retail inflation remains relatively moderate. (6) Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the rise in food prices will be transmitted to the retail end, and the impact of global commodity price trends on India's imported inflation.

15:24:03

[Malaysia Launches "Second Opportunity Fast Track" Policy to Help Four Types of Bankrupt Individuals Rebuild Their Lives] ⑴ The Malaysian government has launched the "Second Opportunity Fast Track" policy, aiming to provide a fast track and expedite the bankruptcy process for four target groups of bankrupt individuals. Minister in the Prime Minister's Department (Law and Institutional Reform), Datuk Seri Azalina, stated that the policy aims to help these target groups rebuild their lives and continue contributing to the country's development. ⑵ The four target groups eligible for the policy are: single parents, microfinance entrepreneurs, victims of financial fraud, and home loan borrowers affected by unfinished construction projects. ⑶ Azalina stated that through this policy, single parents can return to work, entrepreneurs can resume their businesses, and fraud victims can finally breathe a sigh of relief. She emphasized that this fast track initiative is not merely a repackaging, but rather an empathetic policy that accelerates justice, rescuing individuals from an endless cycle of debt and enabling them to stand up with dignity. ⑷ From a social policy perspective, this policy, through targeted exemptions and a fast-track debt resolution mechanism, releases productivity for specific vulnerable groups, reflecting social inclusion and helping to revitalize the micro-economy. (5) In the future, attention should be paid to the actual number of people whose debts have been resolved after the policy is implemented and the evaluation of its effects, as well as whether it will be extended to more bankrupt groups in the future.

15:23:58

[Nikkei Index Closes Slightly Lower by 0.2%, Weak GDP and Post-Election Rally Weigh on Market] ⑴ Japanese stocks trended lower on Monday, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down 0.2% at 56,806.41 points and the Topix index falling 0.8% to 3,787.38 points. Weaker-than-expected economic data and a post-election rally dampened market momentum. ⑵ Preliminary GDP data for October-December showed that while the Japanese economy reversed the contraction of the previous quarter, weak capital spending fell short of economists' median expectations. Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said that GDP data should be considered past data, but the Nikkei index's difficulty in gaining an advantage may have a slight impact. ⑶ Ichikawa added that the stock market rally following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the snap election earlier this month may also have come to a temporary halt. ⑷ In terms of sectors, rubber manufacturers and bank stocks led the decline among the 33 Topix industry sectors. Bridgestone fell 6.5% after its full-year net profit forecast fell short of analysts' expectations. The biggest loser in the Nikkei index was medical device maker Olympus, which plunged nearly 13% due to weaker-than-expected earnings. Major domestic bank Resona Holdings also fell 8%. (5) Among the stocks that bucked the trend, Sumitomo Pharma surged 20.2%, hitting its daily limit, leading the Nikkei index, after the company announced that the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare would review its iPS cell-derived therapy for advanced Parkinson's disease this week. Furniture maker Nitori Holdings rose for the ninth consecutive trading day, accumulating a gain of approximately 28%, closing 9.4% higher on Monday. Credit Saison rose 7.4%. (6) 84 stocks rose in the Nikkei index, while 140 fell.

15:09:58

[European Wheat Weather: Recent Rainfall Favorable, Black Sea Freezing Risk Needs Attention] ⑴ UK and France: Scattered showers in the past few days, temperatures near to above normal. Forecasts indicate scattered showers until Sunday, with temperatures near to below normal in the north and above normal in the south on Friday, near to below normal on Saturday, and near to above normal on Sunday. Scattered showers are expected from Monday to Wednesday next week, with temperatures near to above normal. ⑵ Benelux and Germany: Scattered showers in the past few days, temperatures above normal. Forecasts indicate scattered showers until Sunday, with temperatures near to below normal in the north and above normal in the south on Friday, and near to below normal on Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers are expected from Monday to Wednesday next week, with temperatures above normal in the west and near to below normal in the east. ⑶ Eastern Europe: Scattered showers in the past few days, temperatures above to well above normal. Forecasts indicate scattered showers until Sunday, with temperatures above to well above normal on Friday, and near to below normal in the north and above normal in the south on Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers are expected from Monday to Wednesday next week, with temperatures below average in the north and near to above average in the south. (4) Global Wheat Outlook: Winter wheat in the Black Sea region is entering dormancy, and recent cold air may cause some damage. Recent precipitation in most parts of Europe is beneficial to winter wheat. The dormancy period for winter wheat in the US Plains is generally good, but a dry and warm week may be unfavorable. (5) From a crop growth perspective, recent precipitation in most parts of Europe has accumulated good soil moisture for winter wheat to turn green, but the risk of frost damage in the Black Sea may affect subsequent yield potential. A dry and warm week in the US Plains may accelerate the depletion of surface moisture. (6) The market should pay attention to the actual scope and extent of the frost damage in the Black Sea region, and whether the distribution of precipitation in Europe will remain favorable in the coming weeks.

15:07:38

[Argentine Soybean Weather: Scattered Showers Expected in Core Growing Areas This Week, Southern Regions to Be Dry] ⑴ Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Northern Buenos Aires: Scattered showers and below-normal temperatures have occurred in the past few days. Forecasts indicate continued scattered showers until Tuesday, with temperatures remaining below normal until Saturday, returning to near-normal from Sunday to Monday, and near to slightly above normal on Tuesday. ⑵ La Pampa and Southern Buenos Aires: Generally dry with below-normal temperatures in the past few days. Forecasts indicate mostly dry Friday, scattered showers on Saturday and Sunday, dry Monday, and scattered showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal until Saturday, near to slightly below normal on Sunday, and near to slightly above normal from Monday to Tuesday. ⑶ Global Soybean Outlook: Scattered showers in central Brazil are generally favorable for soybeans in the late grain-filling stage; harvesting should be avoided during rainfall. Soil moisture conditions in northern Argentina are favorable for soybeans, but recent dryness has lowered moisture levels. Dry conditions in central and southern Argentina are unfavorable for growth, although several rounds of rainfall are expected this week. (4) From a crop growth perspective, the sporadic showers this week in Argentina's core producing areas helped alleviate the earlier drought pressure, but the dryness in the southern regions has persisted for a longer period, and more rainfall is needed for soil moisture recovery. While rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for grain filling, it increases harvesting difficulty. (5) The market should pay attention to the coverage and intensity of rainfall in Argentina over the next two weeks, as well as the impact of Brazil's harvest progress on the international soybean supply schedule.

15:05:02

[Klement: Investors Have Misunderstood the Dollar Depreciation Trade; the Real Risk Lies in US Treasuries] ⑴ Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement writes that discussions about the "dollar depreciation trade" are ubiquitous, but one risk indicator shows investors are completely wrong: they are overestimating the troubles facing the dollar while underestimating the threats to US Treasury bonds. ⑵ The dollar has depreciated against all major currencies over the past 12 months, and precious metals such as gold have surged to record highs, but this is not a simple depreciation trade. The depreciation trade involves two levels: first, investors worry that if they are dissatisfied with US policies, money managers will reduce their dollar exposure, potentially causing it to lose its safe-haven and reserve currency status; second, there are concerns that a deteriorating US fiscal situation could ultimately lead to a sharp depreciation or even default on Treasury bonds. ⑶ On the surface, both of these concerns seem weak. The dollar fell by about 10% last year, but rose by about 50% in the previous decade, far from losing its reserve currency status. Treasury yields have also not sounded alarm bells. (4) Another way to gauge investor unease about the dollar or Treasury bonds is to look at their “convenience yield”—the difference between the yield on directly holding dollars or Treasury bonds and the yield on creating synthetic assets through currency and options trading. These transactions are typically made by some of the world’s most sophisticated investors, such as hedge funds and central banks; if they are concerned about a depreciating dollar, the convenience yield should decline. (5) Over the past decade, the convenience yield on the dollar against the euro has remained stable and positive, indicating that investors prefer to hold dollars rather than replicate them. However, the convenience yield on Treasury bonds against German bonds has actually turned negative over the past 15 years, suggesting that investors perceive holding 10-year Treasury bonds as riskier than replicating them with German bonds. (6) It is noteworthy that the decline in the convenience yield on Treasury bonds occurred primarily in the 2010s, when the US began to sustain a massive deficit of approximately 4% or more of GDP. However, in the past six months, the convenience yield on Treasury bonds against German bonds has risen, reflecting Germany’s increased defense and infrastructure spending after years of budget austerity, narrowing the fiscal gap with the US. (7) Klement argues that, given the trajectory of US fiscal policy, are investors actually underestimating the risk of Treasury devaluation? The persistently large US deficit provides ample supply, and overseas investors now have more options. If the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs under IEEPA illegal, $100 billion to $130 billion in revenue could disappear annually, or even require tax refunds, potentially causing a significant deterioration in the fiscal situation almost overnight. (8) Even if the government re-imposes tariffs through other legislation, the new rates may be lowered due to legal constraints, and implementation will take time. This means that the Congressional Budget Office's projection of a US deficit of approximately 5.8% in fiscal year 2026, and many economists' estimates exceeding 6.0%, are likely to rise significantly further, and current Treasury bond yields may be far from high enough.

15:00:31

[Light Trading During Holiday: Asian Currencies Trade in Narrow Range, Stocks Mixed] ⑴ On Monday, emerging Asian currencies traded in a narrow range as overall trading activity was subdued due to holidays in China, South Korea, the United States, and Indonesia. Stocks also declined, lacking strong market clues to drive investor sentiment. ⑵ Among the few actively traded currencies, the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht rose slightly by 0.2%. The ringgit has strengthened in four of the past five trading days, making it the region's best-performing currency so far this year, with global funds flowing into Malaysian assets due to a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions. ⑶ In the stock market, the Philippine stock market fell nearly 1% to its lowest level since early February, pressured by declines in major index components. Jollibee Foods shares fell 1.4%, and Alternergy Holdings hit a two-week low. The Malaysian stock market fell 0.4% to its lowest level since February 6, dragged down by 99 Speedmart Retail. (4) Thai stocks bucked the trend, rising 1.2% to their highest level since December 2024, and last week saw their strongest weekly performance since mid-2025. Ratasak Piriyanont, senior vice president of Kasikorn Securities, said the rebound was driven by renewed foreign capital inflows, fueled by a clearer political outlook and rising expectations for new economic stimulus measures. (5) The focus now shifts to key events this week, including the policy decisions of the Indonesian central bank and the Philippine central bank on Thursday. Maybank analysts expect the Indonesian central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Philippine central bank "should lower its benchmark interest rate to 4.25%."

14:44:51

India's January food WPI annual rate - Wholesale sub-item

Previous : -0.43% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.55%

Previous

14:34:23

India's January fuel WPI annual rate - Wholesale sub-item

Previous : -2.31% Forecast : -

Published Value -4.01%

Previous

14:34:22

India's January food WPI monthly rate - Wholesale Sub-item

Previous : 0% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.41%

Previous

14:34:21

India's January manufacturing WPI annual rate - wholesale sub-item

Previous : 1.82% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.86%

Previous

14:34:21

India's wholesale price index (WPI) year-on-year rate for January

Previous : 0.83% Forecast : 1.25%

Published Value 1.81%

Previous

14:33:30

[Goldman Sachs: Japanese Government Bond Yield Curve Has Removed Country Risk Premium, Long-Term Yields Return to Fair Value] ⑴ Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a report that the current Japanese government bond yield curve no longer contains any "country risk premium." They stated that the 10- to 30-year government bond portion has now returned to fair value, while the 2- to 10-year government bond yield curve is only 10-15 basis points steeper than fair value. ⑵ Analysts stated that the recent elimination of uncertainty surrounding the House of Representatives election may have been sufficient to eliminate some of the long-term risk premium. However, last week's price action "seems to have gone beyond the influence of this single factor, making the market more inclined to believe that the government and the Bank of Japan have the ability to address 'bad' fiscal tail risks." ⑶ From a market perspective, Goldman Sachs' judgment implies that investor confidence in the sustainability of Japanese finances is recovering, and the decline in long-term yields reflects the fading of the risk premium rather than a simple change in monetary policy expectations. ⑷ The market should pay attention to the pace of the Bank of Japan's subsequent monetary policy normalization and the actual progress of the government's fiscal consolidation measures. If market confidence in the tail risk of "bad" assets is maintained, the Japanese government bond yield curve is expected to stabilize around current levels.

12:34:51

Japan's seasonally adjusted monthly rate of industrial output for December was revised

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10%

Previous

12:34:41

Japan's unadjusted annual rate of industrial output for December

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.60%

Previous

12:34:23

The revised monthly rate of inventory shipments in Japan for December

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.60%

Previous

12:34:15

Japan's revised monthly inventory rate for December

Previous : 1% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

Previous

12:33:46

Japan's revised monthly shipment rate for December

Previous : -1.70% Forecast : -

Published Value -1.60%

Previous

12:33:32

Japan's December equipment utilization index monthly rate - seasonally adjusted

Previous : -5.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.30%

Previous

12:33:31

Japan's equipment utilization rate index for December year-on-year - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : -3.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.20%

Previous

12:33:30

Japan's December equipment utilization Index - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 100 Forecast : -

Published Value 101.30

Previous

12:32:35

Japan's annual production capacity index for December

Previous : -1.70% Forecast : -

Published Value -1.80%

Previous

12:32:33

Japan's production capacity index for December

Previous : 95.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 95.20

Previous

12:32:33

Japan's production capacity index monthly rate for December

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -0.30%

Published Value -0.10%

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103.02

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5.873

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-0.09

(-0.14%)

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(-0.44%)

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-0.045

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0.0012

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