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2025-12-15 Monday

2025-12-20

11:05:40

[Liao Min Holds Video Call with Lindsay White, Director-General for International Financial Affairs at the UK Treasury] On December 12, 2025, Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, held a video call with Lindsay White, Director-General for International Financial Affairs at the UK Treasury, at the latter's request. The two sides exchanged in-depth views on cooperation between China and the UK through the G20 financial channel and cooperation within the framework of the China-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue. Liao Min stated that China is willing to work with the UK, in the spirit of mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit, to leverage the important platform role of the China-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue mechanism and promote the steady and long-term development of China-UK economic relations. China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with the UK through the G20 financial channel, promote the reform and improvement of the global economic governance system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the world economy. White stated that the UK attaches great importance to the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue and hopes to further strengthen dialogue and cooperation with China to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. The UK is willing to work closely with China within multilateral frameworks such as the G20 to jointly address global challenges and promote stable and sustainable growth of the world economy. (Ministry of Finance)

10:57:00

[Geopolitical Tensions Push Up Oil Prices, Market Focuses on Potential Supply-Side Risks] 1. International oil prices rose in Monday's trading, with WTI crude currently up 0.5%, trading around $57.73 per barrel. Market analysts believe that the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela have temporarily overshadowed market concerns about oversupply and the possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Oil prices fell more than 4% last week due to concerns about oversupply. 2. An analyst stated, "Current market sentiment is quite complex. On the one hand, the prospects for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are swinging between optimism and caution; on the other hand, the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela have triggered market concerns about potential oil supply disruptions." 3. It is understood that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a five-hour meeting in Berlin on Sunday with the participation of a US special envoy, during which he proposed abandoning his bid to join NATO. Related negotiations continued on Monday. While the US special envoy stated that the talks achieved "significant progress," he did not disclose specific details. 4. Market calculations show that, affected by falling crude oil prices and currency fluctuations, Russia's oil and gas revenues in December may have declined significantly year-on-year. Analysts point out that if Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace agreement, it could create conditions for Russia, currently under Western sanctions, to increase its oil exports. Furthermore, the United States recently seized a Venezuelan oil tanker and imposed new sanctions on shipping entities associated with Venezuela. According to shipping industry sources and data, Venezuela's oil exports have subsequently declined significantly.

10:38:11

[Weakening US Treasury Yields Support Gold Prices, Silver Resumes Gains] 1. Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by weaker US Treasury yields, with spot gold rising as much as 0.67% to $4328.79 per ounce. Silver, after hitting a record high last week, is currently stabilizing. 2. On Friday, gold prices touched $4354, the highest level since October 21. Year-to-date, gold has risen by approximately 64%, breaking multiple records and becoming one of the best-performing major assets in 2025. 3. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 0.2% on Monday, increasing the attractiveness of gold as a non-interest-bearing asset. Although the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week with a rare divided vote, it also indicated that it might pause further rate cuts given persistent inflation and an uncertain labor market outlook. Two dissenting Fed officials pointed out on Friday that inflation remains too high and that there is insufficient justification for lowering borrowing costs in the absence of recent official price data. 4. Currently, investors expect two rate cuts next year. This week's US non-farm payroll report is expected to provide more clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy path. Meanwhile, spot silver resumed its upward trend on Monday, currently trading at $62.54 per ounce, up about 1.1%. Silver prices hit a record high of $64.64 per ounce last Friday, but subsequently fell sharply and closed lower. Driven by factors such as tightening inventories, continued growth in industrial demand, and its inclusion in the US critical minerals list, silver rose about 6% last week, with a cumulative increase of 115% this year.

10:05:04

[National Bureau of Statistics: Electricity Production by Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Maintains Growth] In November, electricity generation by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 779.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%; the average daily electricity generation was 25.97 billion kilowatt-hours. From January to November, electricity generation by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 8,856.7 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. By type, in November, thermal power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size reversed its growth trend and began to decline, while hydropower saw relatively rapid growth, nuclear power and solar power generation accelerated their growth rates, and wind power reversed its decline and began to increase. Specifically, thermal power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.3% increase in October; hydropower generation by industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 17.1%, a slowdown of 11.1 percentage points compared to October; nuclear power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.7%, a speedup of 0.5 percentage points compared to October; wind power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 22.0%, compared to a decrease of 11.9% in October; and solar power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 23.4%, a speedup of 17.5 percentage points compared to October.

10:02:51

China's year-on-year rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November - year-to-date

Previous : 4.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 4%

Previous

10:02:36

China's annual rate of industrial added value of designated size enterprises in November - year-to-date

Previous : 6.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.80%

Previous

10:02:28

Monthly rate of industrial added value of designated size enterprises in China in November - Single month

Previous : 0.17% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.44%

Previous

10:01:46

China's monthly rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November

Previous : 0.16% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.42%

Previous

10:01:15

China's monthly rate of urban fixed asset investment in November

Previous : -1.62% Forecast : -

Published Value -1.03%

Previous

10:01:05

China's annual rate of urban fixed asset investment in November - year-to-date

Previous : -1.70% Forecast : -2.30%

Published Value -2.60%

Previous

10:00:52

China's annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.80%

Published Value 1.30%

Previous

10:00:41

China's annual rate of industrial added value of designated size enterprises in November - single month

Previous : 4.90% Forecast : 5%

Published Value 4.80%

Previous

10:00:31

China's surveyed urban unemployment rate in November

Previous : 5.10% Forecast : 5.10%

Published Value 5.10%

Previous

09:38:32

[This Week's Preview: Year-End Trading Week, Focus on US Employment Data and Global Central Bank Decisions] 1. This week (starting December 15th) is the last full trading week of 2025, and global financial markets will see a series of key events. The core focus includes interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as well as important data such as the US November employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI). 2. In the US, the November employment report (including October survey data) to be released on Tuesday and the CPI data on Thursday are key indicators influencing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Other data to watch include retail sales, housing starts, the preliminary December S&P Global PMI, the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, weekly initial jobless claims, ADP private sector employment data, and the final readings of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Federal Reserve officials Milan, Williams, and Bostic will deliver speeches. 3. According to surveys, most economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, and Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference will provide guidance on the policy outlook. Key Japanese data includes the fourth-quarter Tankan survey, December PMI, trade data, and November CPI. 4. The market widely expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% on Thursday, with a probability of approximately 90%. The monetary policy report and voting results are closely watched due to disagreements among policymakers. The UK will also release October unemployment rate, December PMI, November inflation, and retail sales data. 5. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2%. The market is focused on the tone of its statement and President Lagarde's press conference. On the data front, Eurozone industrial production, preliminary December PMI, consumer confidence index, trade data, and the final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will be released successively. Germany's ZEW and Ifo surveys are also worth noting. 6. In addition, the Swedish and Norwegian central banks are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% and 4%, respectively. Canada will release November CPI and October retail sales, and New Zealand will release third-quarter current account, GDP, and November trade data, all of which could trigger currency fluctuations.

09:19:25

[Ministry of Science and Technology: Systematically Plan the "15th Five-Year Plan" for Science and Technology Innovation to Accelerate the Production of a Batch of Landmark and Original Scientific and Technological Achievements] Yin Hejun, Secretary of the Party Group and Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, chaired a Party Group meeting to study and deploy measures for implementation. The meeting required a systematic plan for the "15th Five-Year Plan" for science and technology innovation. This includes organizing and implementing major national science and technology projects, strengthening basic research and original innovation, further enhancing the strategic, forward-looking, and systematic layout of basic research, and accelerating the production of a batch of landmark and original scientific and technological achievements. It also calls for high-level promotion of the construction of international science and technology innovation centers. This includes promoting deeper cooperation in scientific research and industrial innovation among the Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area international science and technology innovation centers, further accelerating the establishment and improvement of regional innovation systems, focusing on building regional science and technology innovation centers with strong driving capabilities, and encouraging local governments to create distinctive innovation hubs. (Ministry of Science and Technology)

09:19:02

[Trump Admits: Economic Achievements Unpredictable, Republican Midterm Election Prospects "Very Difficult"] 1. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal last Friday, US President Trump expressed uncertainty about whether the Republican Party could retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. He believes the effects of his economic policies, which have attracted massive investment, will take time to materialize, and historically, the party of an incumbent president is usually at a disadvantage in midterm elections. 2. Trump touted his policies as attracting hundreds of billions of dollars in investment for projects such as car factories and artificial intelligence, claiming he has built "the greatest economy in history," but he admitted he cannot predict whether these economic achievements will translate into votes next fall. He frankly stated, "I can't tell you (whether the Republicans will lose the House). I don't know when all this money will start to work." 3. Despite economic expansion, negative sentiment among the public is significant. Current sluggish job growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and significant price increases for everyday goods such as coffee and beef have exacerbated voters' anxieties about the high cost of living. Polls show Trump's current low approval rating, and the losses of some Republican candidates in last month's crucial elections have raised concerns within the party about broader losses next year. 4. Trump blamed the previous administration for inflation and defended its use of tariffs as a core economic tool and negotiating bargaining chip. He revealed that if the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs he imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were invalid, it would be "catastrophic" for the United States. He also stated that the government is considering taking stakes in more companies, including defense companies. 5. Looking ahead, Trump said he hopes interest rates will fall to 1% or lower within the next year and criticized the market's negative reaction to positive news. When asked if he would take a different approach, he said, "Generally speaking, no," but admitted regarding the election prospects: "We should win. But, you know, statistically speaking, winning is very difficult."

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4338.22

5.61

(0.13%)

XAG

67.126

1.664

(2.54%)

CONC

56.54

0.54

(0.96%)

OILC

60.48

0.76

(1.28%)

USD

98.717

0.277

(0.28%)

EURUSD

1.1707

-0.0014

(-0.12%)

GBPUSD

1.3375

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

USDCNH

7.0341

0.0029

(0.04%)