Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2025-10-30 Thursday

2025-11-04

22:03:34

[Lagarde's verbal "rate cut seal": Inflation anchored at 2%, tariff shadow lingers, euro surges to 1.16] ⑴ Lagarde confirmed at a press conference that "all underlying indicators point to 2% medium-term inflation" and stated that long-term expectations are "stable near the target." The market interpreted this as the dovish bottom line, and the euro instantly broke through 1.16 against the dollar, reversing its intraday decline by 0.3%. ⑵ She warned that eurozone goods exports had already declined due to tariff increases from March to August, new export orders continued to fall, and the "full impact" on manufacturing investment "still needs time to materialize." She also pointed out that manufacturing was dragged down by a "stronger euro," implying that currency appreciation has been incorporated into policy considerations. ⑶ Regarding domestic demand, Lagarde stated bluntly that "the divergence between domestic and external demand will continue in the short term." The gap between the services PMI (52.4) and the manufacturing PMI (45.2) widened to its widest in two years, and swap pricing reduced bets on a 2026 rate cut from 10 basis points to 6 basis points, further weakening dovish expectations. (4) The central bank also announced the start of the next phase of the "digital euro," ensuring technical readiness and allowing issuance once legislation is completed. The market interprets this as a long-term improvement in payment efficiency, but no impact on the short-term policy path. The German 2-year yield rose 2 basis points to 2.02%. (5) Technical charts show that the euro's break above 1.1600 triggered $170 million in quantitative buying, and options risk reversed to a two-week high. If core CPI does not decline on Friday, bulls may target 1.1650, exposing a dense area of short-selling stop-loss orders.

21:57:00

[Gasoline Crack Spread Nears 19-Month Peak, Diesel Remains Unchanged at High Levels] ⑴ The Asian gasoline crack spread continued to rise to $15.65/barrel on Thursday, a new high since March 2024, up $0.52 from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of over 40% this month, mainly driven by refinery shutdowns and a sharp drop in Singapore inventories. ⑵ A gasoline window transaction was recorded in the spot market. Institutional tracking shows that Singapore's onshore inventories have fallen to a near five-year low for the same period, about 18% lower than the average of the past five years, with tight supply continuing to amplify the crack premium. ⑶ The diesel crack spread (10ppm) closed at $25.75/barrel, continuing to hover at recent highs; the November-December cross-month spread widened significantly after sharp intraday fluctuations, with tight spot supply supporting a simultaneous rise in spot premiums. ⑷ The November jet fuel/diesel spread widened to a discount of $1.25, the widest in three weeks, indicating that diesel's strength relative to jet fuel remains unabated. Window transactions were zero for the second consecutive day, with traders holding back in anticipation of price increases. (5) Regarding fuel oil, 380-cst high-sulfur cracked oil remains at a discount of $4.95, while ultra-low sulfur oil has rebounded to a premium of over $6. The futures premium structure encourages stockpiling, but high inventory levels limit upside potential. With no transactions occurring in the window for several consecutive days, the market is expected to remain range-bound in the short term.

21:49:08

[European Debt "Frozen" at High Levels: ECB Holds Steady, US Treasury Yields "Ignite" the Momentum] ⑴ After the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, the yield on 10-year German bonds rose only slightly by 3.8 basis points to 2.657%, still at a monthly high. The spread between the same maturity in Italian bonds widened to 148 basis points, indicating that the market had already priced in the "hold-up" expectation. ⑵ Institutional data shows that European debt was driven up by US bonds. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped 10 basis points on Wednesday, and the US-German interest rate spread widened to 145 basis points, the widest since 2007. Carry trade inflows pushed up the US dollar while suppressing European bond prices. ⑶ Mark Wall of Deutsche Bank pointed out that despite US tariff rhetoric and multiple uncertainties, the Eurozone's third-quarter GDP still recorded 0.2% quarter-on-quarter growth. The "resilience" of the economy made it difficult for dovish committee members to win a majority, and the implied probability of a December rate cut in the swap market fell from 55% last week to 36%. (4) Technically, German bond futures have closed below 138.50 for three consecutive days, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone of 30. If the preliminary core CPI reading on Friday is higher than 2.5%, the yield may test the 2.75% level. Short positions have increased to an eight-week high. (5) Fund flows show that European bond ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.2 billion euros this week, the largest since May. Investors are shifting to short-term notes as a safe haven, and the 2s10s yield curve has steepened by 5 basis points. The market is awaiting whether Lagarde's press conference at 22:45 Beijing time will release dovish signals.

21:45:39

[Gas Prices Hit Four-Month High: Expiry Short Squeeze + Record LNG Buying Spree Drives Bulls to 14% Jump] ⑴ The NYMEX December natural gas contract took its first day of trading on Thursday, rising another 1.6% to $3.876 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a jump of about 14% from Wednesday's November contract, the highest since June 18, and entering technical overbought territory for the first time in three weeks. ⑵ Federal Reserve Storage Forecasts indicate that the EIA may inject 73 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 24, higher than the five-year average of 67 billion cubic feet, but inventories are still only 5% higher than normal, and the supply buffer has not deteriorated significantly. ⑶ LSEG statistics show that average production in the 48 states fell to 107 billion cubic feet per day in October, shrinking from the record high of 108 billion cubic feet per day in August; during the same period, LNG feedstock exports rose to 16.5 billion cubic feet per day, breaking the record set before April, with both production cuts and rush exports tightening the spot market. (4) Weather models predict that the national average will be warmer than normal until November 14th, with heating temperatures 27 degrees Celsius lower than the 30-year average. Demand lacks a catalyst, but supply contraction and short covering due to contract rollover will dominate the market, resulting in the largest net inflow of funds since September. (5) Technically, the previous high of $3.93 has become the next key support/resistance level. If Friday's inventory report unexpectedly falls below 70 billion cubic feet, bulls may attempt to break through the psychological barrier of $4. Open interest in options shows a 28% surge in bullish positions at $3.90 within a week, increasing the risk of a gamma squeeze.

21:41:05

[Dollar Surge: Soaring Bond Yields Overshadow Trade Sentiment] ⑴ Marc Chandler, Global Head of FX at Bannockburn, pointed out that the sharp rise in US Treasury yields provided direct support for the dollar. After Chairman Powell hinted that a December rate cut was not a given, 10-year Treasury bonds were sold off, with yields jumping 10 basis points. ⑵ Chandler stated that while there were positive developments from the US-China trade talks overnight, the foreign exchange market reacted tepidly. "It's hard to tell whether trade news or the Fed's tightening stance is driving the market," he said, adding that the market had already priced in optimism regarding the agreement's prospects. ⑶ Institutional data showed that the dollar index jumped 0.6% to 105.8 on Wednesday, a new eight-week high. The euro fell below 1.08 against the dollar, the yen depreciated below 151, and the US Treasury yield curve steepened by 5 basis points (2s10s). ⑷ Swap contracts showed that investors cut their probability of another December rate cut from 74% to 48%. The repricing of short-term interest rate expectations led to a $320 million inflow into dollar-only ETFs in a single day, the largest inflow in two weeks. (5) As expected, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. After the USD/JPY pair rose above 151, the one-week risk reversal indicator in the options market showed that bullish demand for the USD had risen to a one-month high, and short-term positions were biased towards continuing to go long.

21:21:09

[ECB Holds Rates Steady, But Hints at a Cut] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its three benchmark interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with the deposit facility rate remaining at 2%, marking the fifth consecutive day of no change. The money market had already priced in this decision, with overnight implied volatility in swap contracts falling to a two-week low. ⑵ The ECB statement said inflation "remains close to the 2% medium-term target," and the economy "continues to grow in a challenging global environment," reiterating that it makes no pre-commitments and that the future path depends entirely on data. ⑶ Data compiled by institutions showed that the Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 52.1 in October, a three-month high, and Germany's ZEW expectations index rebounded for the second consecutive month to +21, supporting the ECB's assessment that its current stance is appropriate. ⑷ However, German industrial output fell another 1.2% month-on-month in August, and exports to the US have declined by 9% year-to-date. Some members of the ECB are concerned about the risk of a "double-dip" deflation, and the market is betting on a nearly 50% probability of another 40-50 basis point rate cut before next summer. (5) The hawkish camp argues that Germany's planned additional defense and infrastructure spending could exceed 1% of GDP, enough to boost potential growth and prices. If the fiscal multiplier materializes in 2026, swap pricing is expected to be significantly revised. Investors are holding their breath awaiting Lagarde's press conference at 22:45 Beijing time for any possible adjustments to her wording.

21:19:58

[30,000 Tons of Aluminum Arrives Across the Ocean! Mercuria's "Stockpiling and Control" Forces a Short Squeeze on the LME] ⑴ Sources revealed on Wednesday that Mercuria, a trader, is shipping 32,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA. The shipping schedule shows the vessel "Astro Denebola" departing on October 24th and expected to arrive on December 9th, with a cargo value of approximately $68 million. ⑵ Kpler data indicates this is the largest single shipment of aluminum ingots on the Brazil-US route since May of this year. Mercuria, by controlling over 90% of LME pledged warrants, has continuously pushed up the near-month contract premium over the far-month contract to $56 per ton, a 14-month peak. ⑶ Institutional calculations suggest that if all the December arrivals enter LME registered warehouses, the US Midwest premium may fall from the current 22.5 cents/lb to below 20 cents; however, if the goods are directly picked up by end-users, the risk of a near-month short squeeze will continue until January next year. (4) Aluminum prices surged 2.1% intraday on Wednesday, breaking through $2,200, with trading volume increasing to 2.3 times the 30-day average. Options chain data showed an 18% increase in open interest for call options at $2,200, indicating traders are betting on a further widening of the premium structure. (5) Sources added that Mercuria still holds approximately 70,000 tons of inventory at Port Klang. Its future movement will be a key factor in determining whether the market will renew its charter of two bulk carriers. If it confirms another 20,000 tons of shipment, the LME cash premium could potentially reach $70.

21:15:35

The marginal lending rate of the European Central Bank for the eurozone in October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.40%

Published Value 2.40%

Previous

21:15:05

The main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in October

Previous : 2.15% Forecast : 2.15%

Neutral

Published Value 2.15%

Previous

21:15:04

The deposit rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in October

Previous : 2% Forecast : 2%

Neutral

Published Value 2%

Previous

21:06:26

Russia's GDP growth rate in September - monthly

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

Previous

21:05:34

South Africa's budget revenue and expenditure in September changed compared with the previous month

Previous : -383.50 Forecast : -

Published Value -153.60

Previous

21:03:16

[Powell's Latency: Rate Cuts Ineffective for Employment, December Pause Signal Flashed] ⑴ After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that another cut in December was "far from certain," and unusually admitted that "policy may be close to neutral." The cumulative easing of 150 basis points has narrowed the room for future action. ⑵ Powell listed four major obstacles: "serious disagreements" among policymakers, a sharp drop in data visibility due to the government shutdown, inflation still above the target, and the unpredictable pace of the labor market slowdown. This caused the implied probability of another rate cut in December in the swap market to plummet from 74% to 48%. ⑶ He further proposed a "supply-side" argument, pointing out that the main reason for rising unemployment is a decrease in the labor force rather than a cooling demand. Tightening immigration, increased deportations, and the exit of teenagers and the elderly from the labor force have combined to push the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.3% in August. Traditional rate cuts to stimulate demand are "like pushing a rope." (4) Institutional tracking shows that the US stock market boom has led to the top 10% of asset holders contributing about half of consumption. Retail sales and business investment remain robust, exhibiting a "K-shaped" divergence: overheated assets and weak incomes. Further interest rate cuts could further inflate valuations, exacerbating the wealth gap. (5) Technically, the 2-year US Treasury yield rebounded 8 basis points at the end of Wednesday's trading, and the US dollar broke through 104.5. Quantitative models show that if the core PCE month-on-month increase is higher than 0.3% next week, the 10% chance of pausing betting in December will surge to 70%. Short sellers need to be wary of another reversal in interest rate expectations.

21:02:24

[German Inflation "False Alarm"? 2.3% Surprisingly Higher Than Expected, ECB Rate Cut Dreams Shattered] ⑴ The German Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday that the preliminary October CPI was +2.3% year-on-year, higher than the market forecast of +2.2%, and accelerated to +0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding the consensus of +0.2%. ⑵ The EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Index (HICP), released at the same time, also locked in +2.3% year-on-year and +0.3% month-on-month, both indicators exceeding expectations, causing inflation to hover above 2% for the third consecutive month this year. ⑶ A quick commentary from institutions pointed out that although the base effect of energy is waning, the service sector's strong month-on-month increase of 0.5% provides stubborn support for core inflation, and the market's previous bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in December has plummeted from 68% to 42%. ⑷ Swap curves show that the euro 3-year interest rate futures plunged 12 basis points in one minute, traders rushed to cover short positions, and the trading volume of European government bond futures surged to 2.7 times the 20-day average. (5) Technical analysts are closely watching the key support level of 1.0750. If the euro/dollar pair closes above this level on the daily chart, short-term short positions may be forced to cover. Sentiment indicators show that leveraged funds' net short positions have fallen to a three-week low, suggesting a potential breakout is imminent.

21:00:06

The preliminary reading of Germany's CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

21:00:06

The preliminary value of Germany's harmonized CPI annual rate for October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.20%

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 2.30%

Previous

21:00:06

Preliminary reading of Germany's harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

21:00:04

The preliminary annual rate of Germany's CPI in October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.20%

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 2.30%

Previous

21:00:03

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending October 24

Previous : 7424 Forecast : -

Published Value 7312

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