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2026-02-17 Tuesday

2026-02-22

21:06:10

Canada's National economic confidence Index for the week ending February 13

Previous : 51.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 53.20

Previous

20:57:49

[Swap Market Under Mild Pressure, Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Issuance Boom May Be the Next Catalyst] ⑴ On Tuesday, the dollar swap market saw mild buying, continuing Friday's trading pattern, with slightly increased volatility. Traders are preparing for potentially higher-than-expected investment-grade corporate bond issuances, making the swap market lean towards payer sentiment. Except for a slight narrowing of the 2-year spread due to the flattening yield curve, swap spreads across all maturities generally widened. ⑵ Last week, total investment-grade corporate bond issuance reached $40 billion, but some issuers chose to wait and see due to risks such as Treasury refunding supply and employment and inflation. With Treasury yields falling from their December lows, coupled with strong corporate bond demand this year, more borrowers may seize the opportunity. The market expects investment-grade supply to be between $30 billion and $40 billion this week. ⑶ Regarding interest rates, SOFR futures showed mixed movements, with the overall curve flattening as money market rates rose. US Treasury yields fell, following European and British bond yields, and the yield curve flattened slightly, as markets focused on factors such as weak German GDP, an unexpected decline in ZEW yields, and a surge in UK unemployment to a new high outside of the pandemic. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell below 4.02%, hitting a new low for this cycle, but subsequently recovered due to profit-taking. (4) On the macro level, the market awaits this week's Fed meeting minutes, US GDP, and PCE data. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors continue to weigh on sentiment: the US-Iran Geneva talks and concerns about the disruptive potential of AI kept investors cautious, causing the dollar index to rise 0.31% to 97.222, while gold prices fell 1.5%.

20:48:29

[Net Withdrawal of $60 Billion Pressures Overnight Financing Rate] ⑴ On Tuesday, with the issuance and settlement of Treasury bills and coupon bonds resulting in a net withdrawal of approximately $60 billion (the issuance size exceeded the maturing debt), market liquidity was squeezed, and the overnight financing rate opened 6 basis points higher at 3.76%. This outflow of funds coincided with an increase in net long positions in the market, coupled with insufficient manpower at some financing trading desks after the holiday, further exacerbating the financing pressure. ⑵ However, the upside potential is expected to be limited. Backed by the Federal Reserve's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF), with an execution rate of 3.75%, it provides a ceiling for interest rates in the market. The GC rate is expected to fluctuate between 3.76% and 3.70%, with 3.70% also being the high-volume area where the 10-day moving average is located, potentially becoming a gravitational pull on funding rates. ⑶ From a term structure perspective, due to low expectations of interest rate cuts, the collateral yield curve remains flat. The 1-month repurchase rate was 3.662%, and the 3-month rate was 3.716%. In SOFR futures, the red, green, and blue contracts for more distant months continued their upward trend from last Friday, rising another 0.5 to 2.5 basis points during the day. Market concerns about geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran negotiations added uncertainty to interest rate trends. (4) Regarding expectations for Federal Reserve policy, federal funds futures pricing indicates an 11% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March and April FOMC meetings, respectively. Short-term OIS pricing, on the other hand, shows an approximately 16% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut within the next 90 days.

20:38:54

[Yen Recovers Some Losses, Dollar Holds Steady Awaiting Fed Minutes] ⑴ On Tuesday, the yen rose against the dollar and euro, partially recovering losses from the previous trading day. Market expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's expansionary fiscal policies will continue to support the economy have fueled expectations of capital repatriation to Japanese assets. As of press time, the yen was up 0.25% against the dollar to 153.15 and up 0.41% against the euro to 181.19. ⑵ Barclays stated that its model shows the fair value of the dollar against the yen is around 140, corresponding to the level before Ishiba won the LDP leadership election last October. The institution believes that assuming the "Ishiba premium" is not fully reversed, 150 could be a near-term target. Previous data showing only slight growth in the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter had put pressure on the yen on Monday. ⑶ The dollar has risen slightly against the euro over the past two trading days, with the market awaiting the release of the Fed meeting minutes and US economic data later this week for clues about the timing of an interest rate cut. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1% to 97.21. Strategists at BNY Mellon noted that recent data signals are mixed; while inflation is no longer accelerating, it remains above 2%, and the labor market faces further concerns. (4) In other currencies, the pound fell 0.35% to $1.3582 as UK unemployment rose to a five-year high and wage growth slowed, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. The euro slipped 0.15% to $1.1834, and the Australian dollar edged down to 0.7061 against the US dollar. Overall market trading was thin, with many Asian countries on Lunar New Year holiday and the US markets closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.

20:38:41

[Oil Market Awaits Diplomatic Signals, Brent Crude Trades in Narrow Range] ⑴ Brent crude prices remained largely stable on Tuesday, with investors closely watching two key talks held in Geneva that day: the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and the US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral peace talks. As of press time, Brent crude futures rose slightly by 0.16% to $68.76 per barrel, extending the previous day's 1.33% gain. ⑵ Trading was generally light, as several Asian markets, including mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore, were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was not settled due to the US Presidents' Day holiday on Monday and was currently trading at $63.86 per barrel, up 1.54%. ⑶ Geopolitical factors were in focus. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard conducted military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and temporarily closed some sections of the strait as a "security precaution." Investors are assessing any events that could lead to Iran blocking this key global oil chokepoint. Meanwhile, progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks was also closely watched, as any peace agreement could mean the lifting of sanctions, allowing Russian oil to return to the mainstream market. (4) Analysts point out that current market sentiment is closely related to the tone and progress of negotiations, with geopolitical risk premiums continuing to support oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile, with significant two-way fluctuations driven by diplomatic signals rather than simply supply and demand fundamentals.

20:04:50

[The Dawn of a "Soft Landing" for the US Economy Emerges, But No One Dares to Claim Victory] ⑴ The US economy is showing the most consistent positive signs since the pandemic: inflation is falling, the job market is stabilizing, and growth remains solid. Latest data shows that the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, the lowest level since the price surge in 2021, making the scenario of the economy returning to the 2% inflation target without falling into recession increasingly clear. ⑵ However, this battle is far from over. Many companies have begun a new round of price increases, some by high single-digit percentages. Labor costs, health insurance costs, and potential tariff increases are all driving companies to repric, potentially putting upward pressure on future inflation. ⑶ There are also uncertainties at the policy level. Treasury Secretary Bessant called on the Senate to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, although some Republican senators have reservations because Powell is still under investigation. Chicago Fed President Goolsby stated that if inflation falls back to 2%, there is reason to further cut interest rates, but the inflation in the service sector needs to be watched closely. (4) The market is awaiting the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday and the PCE data on Friday to confirm the direction of inflation. In this process of "soft landing," no one dares to declare victory prematurely, and any new price pressures could change course.

19:49:54

[Canada's Weekly Data Preview: CPI and Retail Sales Lead the Way, Central Bank's Rate Cut Path Faces Another Test] ⑴ This week, Canada will see a series of key economic data releases, with Tuesday's January inflation data being the most anticipated. The market expects the January CPI annual rate to remain stable at 2.4%, while the month-on-month increase is expected to be 0.1%, reversing the 0.2% decline of the previous month. ⑵ Regarding the sub-indices of inflation, the Bank of Canada's core CPI indicator is expected to remain moderate. The January CPI-normal annual rate is expected to be 2.8%, the CPI-median annual rate 2.5%, and the CPI-cut-off annual rate 2.7%, all unchanged from the previous month. ⑶ Thursday will see the release of December international trade data. The market expects the trade deficit to narrow to C$2 billion, better than the previous deficit of C$2.197 billion. December international securities trading data, reflecting cross-border capital flows, will also be released on the same day. ⑷ Friday will see the release of crucial December retail sales data. Market expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month decline in total retail sales, a significant slowdown from the previous 1.3% increase, indicating a potential weakening of year-end consumer momentum. The industrial goods and raw materials price index will also be released on the same day. (5) In addition, December data on wholesale trade, new housing price index, and employment insurance will also be released this week. These data will collectively outline the performance of the Canadian economy at the end of the year, providing important reference for the market to judge the Bank of Canada's next policy action.

19:38:22

Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February

Previous : 59.60 Forecast : 65

Published Value 58.30

Previous

19:38:04

Germany's ZEW Economic Conditions Index for February

Previous : -72.70 Forecast : -65.70

Published Value -65.90

Previous

19:36:25

The ZEW Economic Conditions Index for the Eurozone in February

Previous : -18.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -13.60

Previous

19:35:49

UK Labour productivity growth rate for the third quarter - seasonally adjusted

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

Previous

19:20:46

[US Treasury Yield Curve Flattens, Market Awaits Fed Officials' Speeches and Minutes to Ignite Direction] ⑴ On Tuesday, the US Treasury market resumed trading after the holiday, with the yield curve showing a slight flattening trend. As of press time, the 2-year Treasury yield was 3.399%, the 10-year yield was 4.029%, the 2s/10s spread remained around 63.9 basis points, and the 5s/30s spread was 108.9 basis points. ⑵ On the macro level, the market is hotly debating the divergence between the labor market and economic growth. Some argue that a widening gap is forming between the cooling US labor market and strong GDP growth. Meanwhile, the combination of slowing inflation, stable employment, and solid growth has led some to believe that the economy has achieved a "soft landing," but given the emergence of new risks, it is too early to declare victory. ⑶ Today's economic data includes the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. In terms of events, Federal Reserve Governor Barr and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on topics such as artificial intelligence and the labor market, and AI and the economy, respectively, with the market hoping to find policy clues from their speeches. (4) Wednesday will see the release of the crucial minutes from the January Fed meeting, and Friday will see the release of the revised Q4 GDP figure and PCE data. In addition, British media are focusing on the asset allocation moves of Japanese investors following Shigeru Ishiba's election victory, as well as warnings from former Fed official Warsh regarding the potential risks of reducing the balance sheet.

18:27:11

[Divergence Emerges Within the Polish Central Bank: Is an April Rate Cut "Safer" Than March?] ⑴ Jereniusz Dombrovski, a member of the Polish Monetary Policy Committee, stated on Tuesday that April might be a "safer" time to cut rates compared to March, as more complete first-quarter data would be available then. However, he emphasized that the possibility of the council acting earlier cannot be ruled out, and the probability of a rate cut in March remains 50%. ⑵ Dombrovski expects Poland's main interest rate to fall to 3.5% this year. However, he warned that any further rate cuts below that level would face a "major debate," as 3.5% could become the target rate for many years to come. He explicitly opposed radical monetary policy adjustments and ruled out the possibility of a "one-step" drop to 3.5%. ⑶ Regarding data, Poland's inflation rate rose 2.2% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from 2.4% in December, but higher than economists' expectations of 1.9%. It should be noted that the January data was calculated based on the old version of the inflation basket. The National Bureau of Statistics will release revised data based on the new weights in March, but this will be after the next MPC meeting. (4) Dombrovski believes that the inflation rate this year is likely to remain at the lower end of the 1.5%-2.5% target range. Recently, Polish Central Bank Governor Adam Grapinski and several other committee members have hinted that March would be an appropriate time to ease monetary policy. The central bank kept the main interest rate unchanged at 4.00% at its February meeting, awaiting the new macroeconomic forecasts to be released in March to assess the prospect of further interest rate cuts.

18:13:32

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February

Previous : 40.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 39.40

Previous

17:41:49

[Germany's Economy Stagnates, DIHK Predicts Slight 1% Growth in 2026] ⑴ The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) released a forecast on Tuesday, predicting that Germany's GDP will grow by 1% in 2026, slightly higher than the previously expected 0.7%. However, the organization warned that this growth rate is still insufficient and structural reforms are needed for a sustainable recovery. ⑵ "Our competitors are more dynamic," noted the managing director of DIHK. Since 2019, the global economy has grown by 19%, the US economy by 15%, and Italy by 6%, while the German economy has barely expanded by 0.2%, essentially stagnating. ⑶ Despite a series of stimulus measures launched by the federal government, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund, business confidence has improved only slightly. The DIHK Business Climate Index rose slightly to 95.9 points, still far below the long-term average of 110. The survey showed that a quarter of businesses expect the economic situation to worsen further. ⑷ The main risks facing businesses include weak domestic demand (59%), rising labor costs (59%), economic policy uncertainty (58%), and high energy and raw material prices (48%). Investment sentiment remains weak, with only 23% of companies planning to increase investment, while 31% intend to cut it. The labor market is also under pressure, with 25% of companies expecting to lay off workers. (5) Export expectations are one of the few bright spots. Despite trade policy uncertainty, 22% of companies still expect exports to grow in the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from the October survey. DIHK calls for accelerating reforms, reducing bureaucracy, and lowering labor and energy costs to help the German economy recover from stagnation.

17:34:13

[BHP Billiton's Profits Grow by 22%: Can Innovative Financing Model Drive Valuation Restructuring?] ⑴ Global mining giant BHP Billiton released its interim report on Tuesday, showing strong performance. In the six months ending December last year, the company achieved a basic net profit attributable to shareholders of US$6.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while revenue also increased by 11%. Boosted by this, the company's shares listed in Sydney closed up 4.75% at A$52.74, a record high. ⑵ At the same time as the earnings release, CEO Murray Hamel announced an innovative financing arrangement. BHP Billiton reached a long-term silver flow transaction agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals, involving future silver production from the Antamine mine in Peru. Under the agreement, Wheaton will make an upfront payment of US$4.3 billion, with settlement based on 20% of the spot price per ounce of silver delivered in the future. ⑶ This transaction brings BHP Billiton a substantial upfront cash inflow, strengthening its balance sheet without diluting equity. Han Murray has consistently emphasized that a diversified asset portfolio is key to the company's value, but also hopes the market will give it a valuation multiple similar to that of pure copper miners. (4) While strong earnings and innovative silver mining deals have supported the share price increase, market analysts believe this is insufficient to drive a comprehensive valuation reassessment. Investors are still watching to see if this asset portfolio strategy and financial innovation can truly change the market's pricing logic for this diversified giant.

17:30:02

South Africa's unemployment rate in the fourth quarter - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 31.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 31.40%

Previous

17:30:02

Total unemployment in South Africa in the fourth quarter - unadjusted for the season

Previous : 800.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 783.60

Previous

17:13:08

[Yen Rebounds Strongly to Recover Losses, Dollar Holds Steady Awaiting Fed Minutes] ⑴ On Tuesday, the yen strengthened against the dollar and euro, successfully reversing the previous day's losses. Markets anticipate that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's expansionary fiscal policies will continue to support the economy, driving capital inflows back to Japanese assets. As of press time, the yen was up 0.50% against the dollar at 152.80 and up 0.52% against the euro at 180.97. ⑵ Barclays stated that its model shows the fair value of the dollar against the yen is around 140, corresponding to levels before Ishiba won the LDP leadership election last October. The institution believes that assuming the "Ishiba premium" does not fully recede, 150 could be a near-term target. ⑶ The dollar has risen slightly against the euro over the past two trading days, with the market awaiting the release of the Fed meeting minutes and US GDP data later this week for clues about the timing of interest rate cuts. The dollar index rose slightly to 97.12. Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists noted that the market currently has high expectations for a June rate cut, but anticipates further action in July. (4) Regarding other currencies, the pound fell 0.35% to US$1.3582 as UK unemployment rose to a five-year high and wage growth slowed, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of England. The euro edged down 0.05% to US$1.1843, and the Australian dollar dipped slightly to US$0.7069. Overall trading was thin as many Asian countries were on holiday for the Lunar New Year, and the US markets were closed on Monday for Presidents' Day.

17:11:36

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Copper

Previous : 7975 Forecast : -

Published Value 9775

Previous

17:11:32

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Primary aluminum

Previous : -2000 Forecast : -

Published Value -2000

Previous

17:11:28

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:11:24

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Tin

Previous : 240 Forecast : -

Published Value -25

Previous

17:11:20

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Nickel

Previous : -168 Forecast : -

Published Value 810

Previous

17:11:16

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:11:12

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Lead

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 54475

Previous

17:11:09

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Zinc

Previous : -50 Forecast : -

Published Value -150

Previous

17:11:06

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 17th - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:03:07

Italy's trade balance for December

Previous : 50.78 Forecast : -

Published Value 60.37

Previous

17:01:42

Italy's trade balance with the European Union in December

Previous : -19.59 Forecast : -

Published Value -24.47

Previous

16:16:47

[US Plains Winter Wheat Faces "Warm and Dry" Test, Black Sea Cold Wave's Aftershocks Continue] ⑴ The hard red winter wheat growing region in the southern plains of the United States is facing weather challenges. The latest forecasts indicate scattered showers in the region this week, but temperatures will remain significantly higher than normal. For winter wheat still in its dormant period, the warm and dry environment may not be conducive to its subsequent growth. ⑵ Specifically, scattered showers are expected in the southern region from Friday to Saturday, with sporadic rain in the southeast on Sunday. Most areas will be dry on Monday, and scattered showers are expected in the north on Tuesday. Throughout this period, temperatures will remain significantly above normal. ⑶ The 6-10 day outlook shows scattered showers in the northern region from Wednesday to Thursday, with increased precipitation from Friday to Sunday. Temperatures will remain above normal from Wednesday to Thursday, then gradually decrease, reaching near or below normal levels by the weekend. ⑷ Globally, other major growing regions are also facing different situations. Winter wheat in the Black Sea region has entered dormancy, but recent cold air may have already caused some damage. Recent rainfall in most parts of Europe has been beneficial to crops. Winter wheat in central China is in good dormancy, but more rainfall is still needed. Weather changes will continue to influence global wheat production forecasts.

15:07:13

The final reading of Germany's unadjusted CPI for January

Previous : 122.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 122.80

Previous

15:00:18

The final reading of Germany's January CPI monthly rate

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0.10%

Neutral

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

15:00:17

The final reading of Germany's January CPI annual rate

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : 2.10%

Neutral

Published Value 2.10%

Previous

15:00:16

The final reading of Germany's harmonized CPI monthly rate for January

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -0.10%

Neutral

Published Value -0.10%

Previous

15:00:13

The final reading of Germany's harmonized CPI annual rate for January

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : 2.10%

Neutral

Published Value 2.10%

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

 84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

 66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

 71.58

-0.31

(-0.44%)

USD

 97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

 1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

 6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)
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