Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

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Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-04-07 Tuesday

2026-04-10

14:38:28

[Official from the Department of Trade in Services of the Ministry of Commerce introduces the development of service trade in January-February 2026] In January-February 2026, my country's total service trade volume reached 1,143.07 billion yuan (RMB, same below), a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. Exports totaled 442.49 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7%; imports totaled 700.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7%. The service trade deficit was 258.1 billion yuan, narrowing by 86.52 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. The main characteristics are as follows: The proportion of knowledge-intensive service imports and exports increased. In January-February, knowledge-intensive service imports and exports reached 486.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2%, accounting for 42.5% of total service trade, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Specifically, knowledge-intensive service exports reached 248.23 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; knowledge-intensive service imports reached 238.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4%. Travel, other commercial services, and transportation ranked among the top three sectors in terms of scale. In January and February, travel imports and exports totaled 362.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.8%, making it the largest sector in my country's service trade. Exports reached 60.96 billion yuan, an increase of 22.5%, while imports totaled 301.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5%. Imports and exports of other commercial services and transportation amounted to 272.32 billion yuan and 212.23 billion yuan, respectively. According to the new version of the "International Service Trade Statistical Monitoring System" jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in January 2026, a new statistical method will be adopted starting with the compilation of service import and export data for January and February 2026. This new method mainly covers seven sectors: transportation services, other commercial services, financial services, construction services, telecommunications, computer and information services, personal cultural and entertainment services, and processing services. (Ministry of Commerce)

14:08:59

Gold prices are under slight pressure as a stronger dollar and hawkish expectations dampen safe-haven demand. 1. Spot gold traded sideways for the second consecutive day during Tuesday's Asian session, currently at $4644.52 per ounce, down about 0.15%, with a short-term bearish bias. Buying interest in the dollar and rising expectations of a more hawkish stance from global central banks are putting resistance to non-interest-bearing gold. 2. With the deadline approaching for Trump to have Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning 8:00 AM Beijing time), hopes for a last-minute agreement between the US and Iran are fading. Iran responded strongly, stating it would not back down, and the risk of escalating conflict is supporting high oil prices. 3. Oil prices have risen to a four-week high, exacerbating inflationary expectations, with the market believing that major central banks will be forced to adopt a more hawkish stance. This further pressures gold, validating its bearish outlook. 4. The US March ISM Services PMI fell to 54, below the expected 56.1, but the Prices Paid Index rose from 63 to 70.7, indicating increased inflationary pressure. Coupled with last Friday's strong non-farm payroll report, this reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a longer period, which is beneficial to the US dollar. 5. Traders are focusing on US macroeconomic data for new drivers. Under the dual pressure of a strong dollar and hawkish expectations, the downside risk for gold remains significant.

13:56:57

[Former Bank of Japan Policy Board Member: Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates Before July] (1) Former Bank of Japan policy board member Seiji Adachi stated that the Middle East war has led to a surge in oil prices, exacerbating the risk that the central bank will "lag behind the situation" in dealing with inflation, and therefore it is very likely that interest rates will be raised before July. The underlying inflation rate has reached the 2% target, and corporate five-year inflation expectations have risen to 2.5%. The surge in oil prices and supply bottlenecks have increased the rationale for raising the short-term policy rate (currently 0.75%) as soon as possible. (2) Adachi said that the central bank should raise interest rates to a level neutral to the economy (about 1.25%) as soon as possible. However, due to the market turmoil caused by the war and the fragile economic outlook, the possibility of raising interest rates in April is "50/50". The central bank may plan to raise interest rates twice this year to reach a neutral level. (3) Political factors may complicate the decision-making: Dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi appointed two inflation advocates to the policy board, and the government opposes raising interest rates in the near future. If the Middle East war evolves into a protracted oil shock (lasting more than a year), central banks may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes to bring real borrowing costs out of negative territory, at which point they will face a difficult choice between rising inflation and low growth.

13:36:54

[Dollar Holds Near Recent Highs as Markets Await Trump's Iran Deadline] 1. The dollar hovered near recent highs on Tuesday, currently trading at 100.06, as traders counted down the days until Trump's deadline. Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday (8 a.m. Wednesday Beijing time) or face the risk of infrastructure attacks. Market hopes for a deal dampened dollar buying during the Easter holiday, but the approaching deadline has created market tension, resulting in limited dollar selling. 2. The dollar rose to 159.92 against the yen, nearing multi-decade highs and levels that triggered intervention in 2024; the euro was at $1.1536 and the pound at $1.3227, both near multi-month lows. The president of Spectra Markets said the market was long on the dollar in case of escalation, but strong performance in stocks, gold, and the offshore yuan limited the dollar's gains. 3. Trump warned on Monday that Iran could be "annihilated" overnight and vowed to destroy its power plants and bridges. Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire, demanding a permanent end to the conflict. On Tuesday, Iran and Israel exchanged attacks, with Israel claiming to have completed a round of airstrikes on Iranian government infrastructure. 4. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, while recovering from lows, remained weak, trading at US$0.6914 and US$0.5700 respectively. 5. Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stated that the US dollar may weaken slightly in the short term due to market optimism that the US will "end" the war with Iran. However, the key lies in whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open—the US withdrawal from the conflict does not necessarily mean the strait will reopen.

13:10:59

[ECB Governing Council Member Radev: Inflation Expectations May Rise Faster, Prepare for Rapid Interest Rate Hikes] (1) The new member of the ECB Governing Council and Governor of the Central Bank of Bulgaria, Radev, said that inflation expectations in the Eurozone may rise faster than ever before. If signs of persistent price pressures emerge, the ECB must be prepared to raise interest rates rapidly. He pointed out that the balance of risks has shifted in the unfavorable direction, with energy shocks and high uncertainty increasing the likelihood of more adverse scenarios. (2) The surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war has pushed inflation well above the 2% target level. A key risk is that consumers and businesses may quickly adjust their expectations, demanding higher prices and wages, thus triggering an uncontrollable inflationary spiral. Radev said that the recent inflation situation has increased the sensitivity of market expectations, and the transmission of new shocks to prices may be faster than normal. (3) Inflation expectations are currently still at the target level, and no obvious second-round effect has been observed. However, Radev stressed that we cannot be complacent. If the shock continues and begins to affect wages, profits, and inflation expectations, the cost of inaction will rise, and timely action is the wiser course of action. He stated that it was uncertain whether there would be enough data to make decisions before the April 30 meeting, but there would be sufficient information at that time to conduct more specific policy discussions.

13:00:41

Preliminary values of Japan's synchronous indicators for February

Previous : 117.90 Forecast : 116.40

Published Value 116.30

Previous

13:00:34

Preliminary values of Japan's leading indicators for February

Previous : 112.10 Forecast : 112

Published Value 112.40

Previous

13:00:03

Preliminary reading changes in Japan's leading indicators for February

Previous : 1.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30

Previous

13:00:03

Preliminary reading changes of Japan's synchronous indicator for February

Previous : 3.40 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.60

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