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2025-10-30 Thursday

2025-11-04

21:17:41

The European Central Bank stated that it will adopt a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting analysis approach to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance.

21:17:38

ECB Interest Rate Decision: The outlook remains uncertain, mainly due to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.

21:17:30

ECB Interest Rate Decision: A strong labor market, robust private sector balance sheets, and the Governing Council's past rate cuts remain important sources of resilience.

21:17:26

ECB Interest Rate Decision: Despite a challenging global environment, the economy continues to grow.

21:17:21

ECB Interest Rate Decision: Determined to Ensure Inflation Remains Stable at the 2% Target Level in the Medium Term

21:17:18

ECB Interest Rate Decision: The Governing Council did not pre-commit a specific interest rate path.

21:17:13

ECB Interest Rate Decision: Inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target, and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook remains largely unchanged.

21:15:35

The marginal lending rate of the European Central Bank for the eurozone in October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.40%

Published Value 2.40%

21:15:05

The main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in October

Previous : 2.15% Forecast : 2.15%

Neutral

Published Value 2.15%

21:15:04

The deposit rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in October

Previous : 2% Forecast : 2%

Neutral

Published Value 2%

21:14:25

October 30th US Market Update: Support and Resistance Levels for 18 Commodities (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, and 10 Currency Pairs) Details>

21:06:26

Russia's GDP growth rate in September - monthly

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

21:05:34

South Africa's budget revenue and expenditure in September changed compared with the previous month

Previous : -383.50 Forecast : -

Published Value -153.60

21:03:16

[Powell's Latency: Rate Cuts Ineffective for Employment, December Pause Signal Flashed] ⑴ After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that another cut in December was "far from certain," and unusually admitted that "policy may be close to neutral." The cumulative easing of 150 basis points has narrowed the room for future action. ⑵ Powell listed four major obstacles: "serious disagreements" among policymakers, a sharp drop in data visibility due to the government shutdown, inflation still above the target, and the unpredictable pace of the labor market slowdown. This caused the implied probability of another rate cut in December in the swap market to plummet from 74% to 48%. ⑶ He further proposed a "supply-side" argument, pointing out that the main reason for rising unemployment is a decrease in the labor force rather than a cooling demand. Tightening immigration, increased deportations, and the exit of teenagers and the elderly from the labor force have combined to push the unemployment rate to a four-year high of 4.3% in August. Traditional rate cuts to stimulate demand are "like pushing a rope." (4) Institutional tracking shows that the US stock market boom has led to the top 10% of asset holders contributing about half of consumption. Retail sales and business investment remain robust, exhibiting a "K-shaped" divergence: overheated assets and weak incomes. Further interest rate cuts could further inflate valuations, exacerbating the wealth gap. (5) Technically, the 2-year US Treasury yield rebounded 8 basis points at the end of Wednesday's trading, and the US dollar broke through 104.5. Quantitative models show that if the core PCE month-on-month increase is higher than 0.3% next week, the 10% chance of pausing betting in December will surge to 70%. Short sellers need to be wary of another reversal in interest rate expectations.

21:02:41

[Canadian Dollar Plunges to 1.40, Oil Falls, Bonds Rise, Double Whammy] ⑴ The Canadian dollar fell 0.4% against the US dollar to 1.4001 on Thursday, after hitting an intraday low of 1.4003, its weakest level since March 2024. ⑵ The yield on Canada's benchmark 10-year government bond fell 0.4 basis points to 3.154%, while the yield on US Treasury bonds rose to 4.1086%, widening the spread to 95 basis points, the widest since 2007. ⑶ Institutional data shows that crude oil accounts for about a quarter of Canada's export revenue. US December crude oil futures fell 0.95% to $59.91 on Thursday, dragging down the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated with oil prices. ⑷ The swap market's implied probability of another Bank of Canada rate cut in December rose from 58% the previous day to 67%, and leveraged funds' net short positions in the Canadian dollar increased to an 11-week high, with sentiment indicators showing that short sellers are still adding to their positions. (5) On the technical chart, the USD/CAD pair closed above 1.3980 on the daily chart, triggering quantitative buying. The next key area for short stop-loss orders is at 1.4050, and short-term volatility has risen to a three-week high.

21:02:24

[German Inflation "False Alarm"? 2.3% Surprisingly Higher Than Expected, ECB Rate Cut Dreams Shattered] ⑴ The German Federal Statistical Office announced on Thursday that the preliminary October CPI was +2.3% year-on-year, higher than the market forecast of +2.2%, and accelerated to +0.3% month-on-month, also exceeding the consensus of +0.2%. ⑵ The EU Harmonized Index of Consumer Price Index (HICP), released at the same time, also locked in +2.3% year-on-year and +0.3% month-on-month, both indicators exceeding expectations, causing inflation to hover above 2% for the third consecutive month this year. ⑶ A quick commentary from institutions pointed out that although the base effect of energy is waning, the service sector's strong month-on-month increase of 0.5% provides stubborn support for core inflation, and the market's previous bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in December has plummeted from 68% to 42%. ⑷ Swap curves show that the euro 3-year interest rate futures plunged 12 basis points in one minute, traders rushed to cover short positions, and the trading volume of European government bond futures surged to 2.7 times the 20-day average. (5) Technical analysts are closely watching the key support level of 1.0750. If the euro/dollar pair closes above this level on the daily chart, short-term short positions may be forced to cover. Sentiment indicators show that leveraged funds' net short positions have fallen to a three-week low, suggesting a potential breakout is imminent.

21:02:04

[450,000 Barrels → 1.5 Million Barrels! Kashagan "Underwater ATM" Resumes High-Stakes Gamble] ⑴ Sources revealed on Wednesday that Kazakhstan is negotiating with ExxonMobil over unexploited blocks in the giant Kashagan oil field, focusing on details of underwater expansion. ⑵ Institutional data shows that when the oil field was discovered in 2000, Eni estimated its ultimate daily production capacity at 1.5 million barrels, but due to repeated delays and uncontrolled costs, current production is only 450,000 barrels, less than 30% of its planned capacity. ⑶ Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy publicly stated last week that it plans to increase Kashagan's daily production to 800,000 barrels by 2027. If ExxonMobil invests further and introduces underwater reinjection technology, the new capacity could add 350,000 barrels per day. ⑷ The outcome of the negotiations is uncertain, but the swap market has already reacted: the trading volume of Brent crude oil call spreads for December 2026 delivery surged by 40% in a single day, with funds betting on an unexpected increase in supply. (5) Trader psychology data shows that the Brent crude oil forward discount has narrowed sharply from $0.90 to $0.40 in the past week, indicating a rapid increase in market concerns about a supply surge once the "underwater mega-project" is implemented.

21:01:38

[Fed to "Return to Buying"? US Treasury Bulls Rejoice] ⑴ Dario Messi, head of fixed income at Julius Baer, wrote in a report that ending balance sheet reduction on December 1st is only the first step, and the Fed may become a net buyer of Treasury bonds again next year. ⑵ Messi emphasized that this move is not to stimulate the economy, but to maintain an adequate level of reserves consistent with the operational framework. ⑶ Institutional estimates suggest that if reserves as a percentage of bank assets fall below 13%, the Fed may need to purchase approximately $300 billion in Treasury bonds by the second quarter of 2026. ⑷ On Tuesday's close, the 10-year Treasury yield plummeted 7 basis points, marking the largest single-day drop since September, while futures warehouse receipts showed a 18% surge in leveraged funds' net long positions. ⑸ The swap market is betting on a further 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate before December 2025, fueling expectations of a "Fed returning to bond buying."

21:01:27

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.00% to $63.56 a barrel on the day.

21:00:06

The preliminary reading of Germany's CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 0.30%

21:00:06

The preliminary value of Germany's harmonized CPI annual rate for October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.20%

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 2.30%

21:00:06

Preliminary reading of Germany's harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 0.30%

21:00:04

The preliminary annual rate of Germany's CPI in October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.20%

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 2.30%

21:00:03

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending October 24

Previous : 7424 Forecast : -

Published Value 7312

20:59:46

The USD/CAD pair just touched the 1.4000 level, last trading at 1.4000, up 0.43% on the day.

20:59:20

Senate Republican Leader Thune believes that shutdown negotiations will be easier starting next week.

20:56:46

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1580.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1578.35/ounce, down 1.05% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1573.8/ounce, down 1.69% on the day.

20:54:47

[Did Macklem's "Excess Supply" Statement Scar the Canadian Dollar? The Rate Cut Betting Game Has Just Begun] ⑴ David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, points out that Bank of Canada Governor Macklem stated bluntly at Tuesday's press conference that "excess supply can only be gradually absorbed," a statement he considers a "decisive sign," suggesting that the Bank of Canada's rate-cutting cycle is far from over. ⑵ According to the institution's statistics, the Bank of Canada has cumulatively lowered its policy rate by 175 basis points since initiating easing in June 2024, but Macklem's latest remarks are more dovish than those of the September meeting, and he is "quite pessimistic" about the domestic economic outlook. ⑶ Rosenberg emphasizes that while the Bank of Canada claims it has "done enough," it simultaneously releases signals of "obvious uncertainty," with the market's implied probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in December surging from 38% a week ago to 62%. ⑷ According to the central bank's internal model, weak economic growth may cause core inflation to fall to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026, below the 2% target lower limit, at which point the policy rate may be cut by another 50 basis points to 2.25%. (5) The Canadian dollar depreciated 0.8% against the US dollar on Tuesday, hitting a new low since August. A one-week risk reversal indicator in the options market showed a 45% surge in bearish USD/CAD contracts, as traders bet that the Bank of Canada's "verbal easing" will translate into concrete action.

20:53:32

Amid the US dollar's strong rebound, risk assets and gold face a life-or-death crisis! How should investors position themselves? Details>

20:53:04

META shares fell 10% in pre-market trading following reports that the company plans to issue at least $25 billion in bonds.

20:52:23

The "perfect pricing" collapsed overnight! The Federal Reserve extinguished the "rate-cutting frenzy," and the last line of defense for bond market bulls turned out to be this number... Details>

20:47:54

[Caixin Futures: Diverging Supply and Demand Patterns in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ Palm oil supply remains ample, with Indonesia's palm oil production projected to increase by 10% in 2025. ⑵ Amidst weakening crude oil prices, palm oil futures maintained a narrow range of fluctuation between 8790-8850 yuan. ⑶ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou remained stable at 8690 yuan/ton, with futures trading at a slight premium to spot prices. ⑷ Trading recommendations: Short-term sell on rallies; medium-term focus on oversold rebound opportunities below 8700 yuan. ⑸ Short positions near 8850 yuan should consider profit-taking, as domestic soybean supply is ample in the fourth quarter. ⑹ However, a supply gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, resulting in insufficient short-term drivers. ⑺ Soybean meal is recommended to be treated with a weak range-bound trading strategy, while seasonal selling pressure on corn continues. ⑻ Downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises have weak purchasing intentions, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. ⑼ High supply pressure coupled with weak demand will maintain an ample supply situation in the short term. ⑽ Corn trading is still recommended to focus on short-term selling, as the increase in hog supply is the main long-term contradiction. (11) Theoretical increases in slaughter volume are expected in October, potentially further widening the supply slump. (12) Recent activity in secondary fattening farms has weakened, leading to a decline in spot prices. (13) Short selling is recommended at opportune times, as the number of newly laying hens in the egg market is limited. (14) Farmers remain highly motivated to cull older hens; the progress of the production inflection point needs to be monitored. (15) In the short term, a wait-and-see approach is advised for the egg market.

20:45:49

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Energy and Chemical Sector] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the summit in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, while the EU formally passed its 19th round of sanctions against Russia. ⑵ This may lead to countries like India reducing their purchases of Russian oil. ⑶ The macro environment is bullish, but considering that OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has turned neutral. ⑷ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies triggering a strong reaction. ⑸ Expectations of reduced high-sulfur fuel oil supply remain, and prices have rebounded following crude oil. ⑹ OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase at its meeting this Sunday, but with positive macroeconomic expectations, the downside for fuel oil may be limited. ⑺ Market sentiment in Shahe has improved recently, with inventories declining and some mid-to-downstream businesses restocking. ⑻ Some manufacturers are selling well, and market transactions are acceptable; glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year. ⑼ However, demand is still declining significantly year-on-year, resulting in considerable pressure. (10) The market showed resilience; considering the rising costs, the downside potential for glass futures may be limited. (11) A slightly bullish outlook is recommended; the domestic soda ash market is stable with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. (12) Total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers reached 1.702 million tons this week, an increase of 9,600 tons from Monday. (13) Production from the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed; short-term coal costs have limited the decline. (14) A slightly bullish outlook is recommended; the Shandong liquid soda ash market is performing poorly, with most companies increasing their inventory at the end of the month. (15) Sales are weak, but some companies have slightly increased their prices due to maintenance shutdowns. (16) Supply remains ample, while downstream demand has increased slightly. (17) However, there is no peak season restocking demand for non-aluminum products; inventory remains high, and there are no signs of improvement in fundamentals. (18) A slightly bearish outlook is recommended; the Taicang spot price fell by 20 yuan to 2190 yuan, while the Inner Mongolia North Line price remained unchanged at 2020 yuan. 18. Futures prices fell sharply today with increased open interest, while coal costs remained relatively strong. 20. However, methanol's profitability was rapidly squeezed due to persistently high port inventories.

20:43:36

[MBS Under Pressure at Opening, Pre-Christmas Rate Cut Opportunities Plunge] ⑴ Institutional quotes show that at the Chicago open on Thursday, MBS basis slightly underperformed, with 30-year UMBS 30 5.0% to 6.5% bonds generally 2 to 5+ ticks lower, only the 5.0% bond was on par with the 10-year bond, the yield curve steepening in a bear market narrowing the spread. ⑵ The 10-year Treasury futures settlement price was 101-17, the yield initially rose and then fell before surging to 4.107%, a new high since October 9th. The 2s10s curve flattened by 1.7bp intraday before steepening again by 1.7bp to 48.7bp, and the futures volatility 1m10y rose to 66.2bp. ⑶ The Fed cut rates by 25bp on Wednesday, but Powell said December was "far from certain." Interest rate futures showed the probability of another rate cut in December plummeted from 85% to 71%, risk assets generally opened lower, S&P futures fell 0.2%, and the VIX fell back to 16.14. (4) There is no government data to be released today. The 30-year Freddie Mac mortgage rate fell to a year-to-date low of 6.19% last week. The market is focused on short-term debt issuance at 11 a.m. and speeches by two officials in the afternoon. MBS traders are closely watching interest rate fluctuations and year-end position adjustments.

20:41:47

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%-4.00%, but Chairman Powell stated that another rate cut in December is "far from certain." ⑵ The world's largest gold ETF saw its holdings decrease by 2.87 tons to 1036.05 tons, reflecting a cooling of bullish sentiment in the market. ⑶ Based on Fibonacci retracement calculations, the support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 904-910 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 904-920 yuan. ⑷ Trading recommendations: Reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive strategy. ⑸ The Fed's rate cut and geopolitical tensions boosted risk aversion, with the Shanghai copper main contract briefly breaking through 89,000 yuan/ton. ⑹ Domestic and international copper mine disturbances continue, with the copper concentrate import index negative, indicating a tight supply expectation. ⑺ It is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy; LME low inventories have not improved, and domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at high levels. (8) With export windows open and demand stable, Shanghai zinc prices may continue to stabilize. (9) Alumina prices plunged in the afternoon; overall supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not eased. (10) Against the backdrop of high inventory levels, the rebound is weak; caution is advised when bottom-fishing. (11) The Fed cut interest rates, but Powell's comments were hawkish, putting pressure on aluminum prices, although the overall macroeconomic environment is favorable. (12) Tight scrap aluminum supply and firm prices suggest continued high-level fluctuations for Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum. (13) The strategy is mainly to buy on dips; lithium carbonate futures remain relatively strong, with strong downstream demand supporting prices. (14) Fundamentals continue to see destocking, with declining production and warehouse receipts trending downwards. (15) However, the long-term high supply pressure remains unchanged; the rise is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch. (16) One should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential of the market; attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends.

20:40:13

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Market sentiment cooled somewhat due to macroeconomic disturbances, with steel showing an increase in supply but a decrease in inventory. ⑵ Demand remains resilient, but demand for construction materials may have peaked, and whether a demand inflection point has occurred still needs to be monitored and confirmed. ⑶ Short-term cost support remains strong, and the downside potential on the market may be limited. ⑷ In terms of funding, the top 20 long positions in the rebar 01 contract decreased slightly, while short positions increased slightly, resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑸ The top 20 long positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract did not change significantly, while short positions increased slightly, also resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑹ Pig iron production remains high, and the actual rigid demand for iron ore is good, but in the medium term, November shipments may remain high. ⑺ With shrinking steel mill profits and environmental disturbances, pig iron production still has considerable room for decline, and the weak expectation pattern for iron ore continues. ⑻ Valuation still faces the risk of downward shift. In terms of funding, the top 20 short positions in the iron ore 01 contract did not change significantly, while long positions increased slightly. (9) Stricter safety inspections, environmental protection measures, and underground mining disruptions will keep supply in production areas tight. (10) With improved coking plant profits, coal mine shipments are relatively smooth, with most maintaining low inventories, and spot market demand remains strong. (11) Short-term market movements are affected by macroeconomic disturbances, leading some funds to take profits; the expected adjustment range is limited. (12) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach and avoid chasing highs; in terms of funding, the top 20 long positions in the coking coal 2601 contract saw a larger reduction. (13) Coking plant profits have improved somewhat, but production remains suppressed due to environmental protection and maintenance disruptions. (14) Against the backdrop of rising costs, the expectation of the third round of coke spot price increases is strong. (15) Steel demand is about to peak, and rising raw material prices may continue to compress steel mill profits, limiting the room for improvement in coking plant profits. (16) Strategically, a long coal and short coking coal strategy can still be maintained; factory operating rates have slightly decreased, while demand is steadily increasing. (17) Mill inventories continue to increase, and the supply and demand drivers themselves are weak; short-term market movements may follow the fluctuations of raw material coking coal. 18. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the manganese silicon 01 contract were mainly reduced, indicating a cautious attitude among investors.

20:38:56

Canada's average weekly income annual rate in August

Previous : 3.31% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.01%

20:37:12

Canada's nonfarm payrolls increased by 33,000 in August compared to the previous month.

20:35:03

Total Energy CEO: We are beginning to see the sanctions have a "real impact" on the market. The oil market underestimated the impact of the Russian sanctions.

20:33:07

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York accepted $2.2 billion in funds submitted to the Standing Repurchase Facility on October 30.

20:30:13

Spot gold has just broken through the $3,970.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $3,969.62/ounce, up 1.01% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $3,981.20/ounce, down 0.49% on the day.

20:28:22

The US dollar rose 1.01% against the Japanese yen, reaching 154.24 on the day.

20:28:12

Total Energy's CEO stated that France's proposed windfall profits tax on multinational corporations is a complete violation of the rule of law, and that Total will not be affected because it has double taxation avoidance agreements with various countries.

20:26:03

The CFO of Stlantis stated that the increase in shipments in the third quarter primarily reflected the benefits of the normalization of U.S. inventory dynamics.

20:22:54

[Can the US Treasury 5s/30s yield curve's retest of the 92bp cliff-like double bottom save the day?] ⑴ The 5s/30s yield curve touched a low of 92bp on Thursday, matching the July trough, and then stabilized slightly. This level is forming the initial double bottom pattern, which technical analysts have already noted. ⑵ The 89.5bp level below corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the decline from February to September. A break below this level could trigger a new wave of flattening. ⑶ The previous double top of 103.5bp has successfully reached its 93bp target, and the energy of the pattern has been fully released. Short-term bears are waiting for confirmation of a break below 92bp. ⑷ The 5-year yield hit a new low of 3.50% on October 17th, and rebounded to a high of 3.72%. The key Fibonacci resistance is at 3.77%, and the next key level is at 3.78%, representing a dense cluster of previous highs. (5) The 30-year yield has rebounded from the low of 4.52% on October 22 and is now at 4.65%. The previous low of 4.675% is a resistance level. If the yield curve continues to flatten, the long end needs to hold this level to avoid a rapid decline.

20:22:22

[LME Plans Permanent Rules to Limit Large Positions in Near-Month Contracts] ⑴ The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced on Thursday that it plans to develop permanent rules to restrict members holding large positions in near-month contracts in the context of low inventory levels. ⑵ In June, the LME implemented temporary restrictions after a surge in premiums for near-month copper contracts. The LME stated that these measures were introduced to address the low inventory environment and the problem of excessive holdings in near-month contracts, prompting the LME's special committee to instruct market participants to reduce large positions on the exchange. Recently, the premium for near-month zinc contracts has surged to a record high due to a decline in inventories of approximately 85% since the beginning of the year. ⑶ The LME stated, "We believe that developing a permanent rule applicable across the entire market to address market participants holding large positions in near-month contracts is the most appropriate measure to maintain market order."

20:17:40

US crude oil prices fell as declining inventories failed to offset supply pressures from OPEC+. Details>

20:17:24

The release of the US initial jobless claims data, originally scheduled for 8:30 PM Beijing time, was postponed due to the government shutdown.

20:12:42

The German Association of the Automotive Industry (DAAD) plans to establish a temporary information platform through a neutral third party to avoid the negative impact of potential chip shortages.

20:11:21

Chile's National Institute of Statistics and Geology (INSEE) reported that as the world's largest copper producer, Chile's copper output fell 4.5% year-on-year in September to 456,663 tons. Chile's manufacturing output increased by 5% year-on-year in the same month, but this fell short of economists' expectations of a 6.9% increase.

20:09:50

Nvidia's CEO stated that Nvidia could potentially be much larger than it is now.

20:07:45

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán did not rule out the possibility that the fire at the Sázshausenbautao MOL oil refinery in southwestern Budapest was caused by an external attack and said an investigation was underway.

20:06:40

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1580.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1579.60/ounce, down 0.97% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1582.5/ounce, down 1.14% on the day.

20:04:33

【EUR/GBP Consolidates at 0.88, Overbought but Remains Strong】 ⑴ EUR/GBP hovered around the 0.88 level on Thursday, with the daily RSI deeply in overbought territory. Without new catalysts, chasing higher levels will become increasingly difficult. ⑵ Technical support is locked in the 0.8738-69 area. Institutional strategies are "fade on dips," and buying on pullbacks is expected to pick up quickly. ⑶ Expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in November are looming, and pre-emptive selling of the pound continues to support cross-currency pairs. ⑷ There is significant resistance above. If momentum continues, the short-term target is 0.8850; a break above this level would open up further upside potential.

20:04:04

[Rate Cut Expectations Freeze Rupee to Record Low of Just 6 Basis Points] ⑴ Traders drastically reduced their bets on a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Thursday, sending the Indian rupee down 0.6% to 88.7437 against the dollar, its biggest one-day drop since August 29, just 6 basis points from its September record low of 88.8050. ⑵ Sources said the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars earlier this month to hold the level, but no significant intervention was seen in the spot market on Thursday, allowing short sellers to increase their positions. ⑶ The head of finance at Finrex Treasury Advisors pointed out that Asian currencies were generally under pressure, with the rupee being the most affected by the central bank's absence; a break below the record could send it straight to 89.50. ⑷ Analysts at Kotak Securities warned that if 88.8050 is breached, the next target will be the psychological level of 90, and short-term option obstacles could trigger an accelerated slide.

20:02:15

[Tariff Easing Turns into Oil Price Killer, October Sees Three Consecutive Monthly Declines] ⑴ Institutional quotes showed that Brent crude oil fell 0.65% to $64.50 at 19:36 Beijing time on Thursday, while WTI crude oil fell 0.63% to $60.10, completely erasing Wednesday's huge inventory reduction gains. ⑵ On Wednesday, WTI crude oil inventories plummeted by 6.86 million barrels to 416 million barrels, far exceeding the expected 210,000 barrels, but still couldn't withstand the trade sentiment battle. ⑶ The White House confirmed that Trump's tariff comments lowered China's tariff rate by 10 percentage points to 47% in exchange for China resuming purchases of US soybeans and rare earth circulation. PVM pointed out that the market only saw this as a stopgap measure rather than a breakthrough. ⑷ The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday but hinted that it might stop this year. Rystad said its policy shift is to provide tail support for commodity demand, but investors are more focused on the OPEC+ meeting on November 2, which is expected to increase production by another 137,000 barrels per day. (5) If the meeting confirms the increase in production, the two major indicators that have already fallen by more than 3% in October will record three consecutive months of decline, and technical selling pressure may accelerate the test of the psychological level of $60.

20:01:17

Mexico's GDP fell 0.29% quarter-on-quarter and 0.24% year-on-year in the third quarter.

20:01:11

[Japanese Automakers' "Re-import" of US-made Cars to Save the Day: Symbolic Significance] ⑴ Toyota and Nissan both stated this week that they are "studying" and "seriously considering" re-exporting vehicles from their US factories to Japan. The aim is not profit, but rather to demonstrate their willingness to cooperate in reducing the trade surplus. ⑵ Industry estimates suggest an annual scale of only about 20,000 vehicles, a drop in the ocean compared to Japan's nearly 1.4 million vehicle exports to the US last year and the US trade deficit with Japan of $68.5 billion. ⑶ US-spec cars are left-hand drive, larger, and have different safety standards, requiring government coordination on standards and conversion to right-hand drive, with cost and time being the biggest obstacles. ⑷ Data from the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association shows that Japanese brands will produce 3.3 million vehicles in the US by 2024, far exceeding the re-import plan, indicating that localized production remains the main focus. ⑸ Analysts say this move has "huge symbolic significance," intended to send goodwill to Trump's tariff rhetoric and maintain Japan-US relations. The market is currently focused on whether the Tokyo government will quickly introduce a mutual recognition standard plan.

20:00:57

[Vietnamese Rice Prices Plunge to Two-Month Low, Thai Rice Stops 18-Year Low] ⑴ The Vietnam Food Association quoted prices on Thursday, with 5% broken rice falling to $415-430/ton, the lowest since August 21, due to weak demand and poor quality of the new season. ⑵ Indian 5% broken parboiled rice remained flat at $344-350/ton, while white rice was quoted at $350-360/ton. Heavy rains in the east may damage yields, but export demand remains weak. ⑶ Thai 5% broken rice rose slightly to $340/ton, ending a six-week losing streak and moving away from an 18-year low, but competitors in Pakistan offered even lower prices, and demand has not rebounded significantly.

20:00:55

Mexico's GDP growth rate for the third quarter - unadjusted preliminary value

Previous : 0% Forecast : -0.20%

Neutral

Published Value -0.20%

20:00:36

Chile's National Institute of Statistics and Geology (INSEE) reported that copper production in September increased by 4.5% year-on-year.

20:00:36

Mexico's GDP growth rate for the third quarter - seasonally adjusted preliminary value

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -0.30%

Neutral

Published Value -0.30%

19:59:27

The U.S. National Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Melissa will approach Bermuda later today and tonight; a hurricane warning has been issued for Bermuda.

19:58:33

Lagarde speaks tonight: Is the euro's rate-cutting cycle dead, or will it be stabbed in the back again? Details>

19:57:41

[US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The Current Fed is Out of Touch; Their Models Have Failed] US Treasury Secretary Bessant praised the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but also pointed out that the Fed's skepticism about further rate cuts this year indicates that the institution urgently needs major reforms. Bessant stated that he will conduct a second round of interviews with candidates for Fed chair in early December to replace Powell, allowing Trump to make an appointment before Christmas. Bessant said, "The current Fed is out of touch with the past. Their inflation forecasts this year have been very poor; their models have failed."

19:56:02

A BP spokesperson stated that BP has signed an agreement to explore for oil and gas off the coast of Gabon.

19:54:48

The December shipment volume of Brent crude oil from the North Sea is set at one cargo.

19:52:57

Metsera shares extended gains to 20% in pre-market trading as Meta Platforms launched a six-phase dollar bond offering.

19:51:23

[Seven Suspects Arrested in Louvre Robbery, Eight Pieces of Jewelry Still Missing] On October 30th, local time, Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau stated that five suspects in the Louvre robbery were arrested on the evening of the 29th, including a previously identified prime suspect. The arrests were reportedly conducted simultaneously at multiple locations in Paris and the surrounding area around 9 PM on the 29th. Two suspects had already been arrested on the 25th, and Paris prosecutors stated on the 29th that these two would be formally charged and placed in temporary detention. To date, a total of seven suspects have been arrested in connection with the Louvre robbery. Around 9:30 AM on October 19th, a robbery occurred at the Louvre Museum. Several masked individuals stole nine pieces of "inestimable value" jewelry within minutes, including a Napoleonic-era necklace, brooch, and earrings. The Louvre was immediately evacuated and closed. The suspects abandoned a crown belonging to Empress Eugénie during their escape. The crown has been recovered by police, but the whereabouts of the remaining eight pieces of jewelry remain unknown. At 9:00 AM on the 22nd, three days after the looting, the Louvre reopened to visitors. (CCTV)

19:48:41

The British government has stated that it is preparing to arrange flights to help British citizens evacuate from Jamaica.

19:47:00

Nissan's CFO stated that the total tariff costs we incur in the second half of the year should be 25 billion yen lower than those in the first half. The main drivers for the lower tariff expenditure in the second half are, firstly, the 15% tariff on U.S. imports from Japan in the second half of the year, and secondly, the mitigation measures we have implemented.

19:45:12

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov: Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated more than once that Russia will act accordingly if any country withdraws from the moratorium on nuclear testing.

19:40:57

The USD/JPY pair has just broken through the 154.00 level, currently trading at 154.01, up 0.85% on the day.

19:40:38

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter predicts a large-scale tax refund in the first quarter of 2026, which will boost consumer spending. He believes that Main Street (the general public and the real economy) and Wall Street (the capital markets) will experience synchronized prosperity next year, with a strong rebound in job growth.

19:39:59

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: He praised the Fed's rate cut, but the wording showed their outdated thinking and ineffective model. He is very optimistic about economic growth and inflation levels in 2026. Job growth will rebound strongly.

19:38:59

Reliance Industries, Inc. of India, has partnered with Google to accelerate India's AI revolution. Reliance announced that Reliance Intelligence has become a Google Cloud partner. This collaboration with Google will expand the use and access to TPUs (Technical Processing Units).

19:38:16

Maersk stated that it plans to significantly expand its business presence in India through investments in port infrastructure, vessel re-registration, and strengthening local partnerships across the entire shipping value chain.

19:35:50

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant: The second round of interviews for Federal Reserve Chair is underway, and a shortlist of candidates will be submitted in early December. The goal is to finalize the candidate before Christmas.

19:35:48

Nissan's CFO: Despite the challenges, our goal is to achieve positive cash flow in the second half of this fiscal year. The one-off items in the first half were primarily related to U.S. emissions issues.

19:33:21

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that the United States has not notified Russia of its plans to conduct nuclear tests.

19:32:30

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Argentina's Foreign Exchange Stabilization Fund was used.

19:30:34

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: The U.S. can supply natural gas and oil to South Korea. He will be traveling to Asia in the coming weeks.

19:30:07

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The US government shutdown has begun to affect the US economy.

19:28:31

[UK Bonds' Heartbeat Accelerates, November Budget a "Trigger"] ⑴ ING strategists point out that UK bonds are far more sensitive to risk sentiment than German bonds. If the November 26th budget disappoints in terms of fiscal sustainability, gilt yields could surge. ⑵ Potential "trigger" combinations include: increased spending, new bond issuance, and inflation-related tax increases; any one of these could trigger a sudden loss of market confidence in UK fiscal policy. ⑶ Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year UK bond yield has already risen 4 basis points to 4.436%, with the most vulnerable part of the yield curve reflecting anxiety first, and short-term volatility is expected to remain high.

19:26:56

[High-Quality, Strong-Gluten Wheat in Uzbekistan is Scarce, Accounting for Only 6.6%, Hindering Bread Trading Sentiment] ⑴ According to data from Uzbek flour mills cited by ASAP Agri on Thursday, Uzbekistan's total wheat production is projected to reach 22.8 million tons in 2025, with food-grade wheat accounting for 40%, up from 30% in 2024. ⑵ High-protein wheat (≥12.5%) will only reach 1.5 million tons, accounting for 6.6% of the total, far below the 33% level in 2020, the lowest in recent years. ⑶ The mainstream protein range is 10.5%-11.5%, with generally average baking performance. Southern and eastern regions have the best grain dryness and cleanliness, while western regions, with higher humidity, have the lowest protein content at around 10.6%.

19:23:06

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: Nuclear energy development requires all-out effort.

19:21:15

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1590.00/oz mark, and is currently trading at $1589.40/oz, down 0.35% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1592.4/oz, down 0.52% on the day.

19:20:54

Spot gold has just broken through the $3,970.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $3,969.53/ounce, up 1.00% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $3,981.40/ounce, down 0.48% on the day.

19:20:34

[Germany and Italy Stall, France and Spain Surge: Europe Narrowly Outperforms in Q3] ⑴ Eurostat announced on Thursday that Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, compared to a Reuters poll forecast of only 0.1%, equivalent to an annualized rate of 1.3%, higher than the expected 1.2%. ⑵ Spain maintained its leading position with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, while France expanded by 0.5%, far exceeding the expected 0.2%. Germany and Italy both experienced zero growth, becoming the biggest drags. ⑶ The unemployment rate in September remained stable at 6.3%, close to a historical low, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in the short term. ⑷ Germany has been almost stagnant for the past three years, with large-scale government spending yet to materialize. S&P Global warned that the recovery momentum in the fourth quarter will remain weak, with the Ifo and PMI only showing initial signs of recovery. ⑸ Institutions generally expect low inventory levels, interest rate transmission, household savings, and reduced tariff uncertainty to drive a moderate recovery in future growth, but structural rigidity limits the upside potential, locking in a long-term range of 1.2%-1.5%.

19:18:50

US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The US will integrate the shipbuilding industry with its Western allies.

19:18:46

US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: US suspends new Entity List rules

19:05:20

[Fed Hawkish Stance Causes Central and Eastern European Currencies to Weaken] ⑴ Institutional quotes show that at 18:52 Beijing time on Thursday, the Hungarian forint slipped 0.2% to 388.50 against the US dollar, still a step away from the 16-month high reached in early October. ⑵ The Czech krona fell slightly by 0.05% to 24.35, continuing to hover near its more than two-year high; the Polish zloty fell 0.1% to 4.2440, with the National Development Bank (BGK) predicting a short-term range of 4.23-4.25. ⑶ ING points out that after the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday, Powell's hawkish stance ended risk sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar against the euro has hit the previously crowded forints and zlotys hardest. ⑷ The Hungarian Statistics Bureau released third-quarter GDP figures that were lower than expected, and stubborn inflation forced the central bank to maintain the EU's highest benchmark interest rate of 6.5%; Czech data released on the same day showed that domestic demand and wage growth drove the economy better than expected. Capital Economics says this will further strengthen the Czech central bank's hawkish stance, and regional interest rate differentials may become a buffer for the foreign exchange market.

19:04:29

[Interest Rate Cut Dream Shattered, Long-Term Bond Yields Soar] ⑴ The Federal Reserve hinted on Wednesday that a December rate cut is far from certain, while also announcing the end of balance sheet reduction starting in December, causing long-term bond yields to rise sharply. ⑵ Tradeweb data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.078%, the 30-year yield surged 3 basis points to 4.629%, and the 2-year yield followed suit with a 1.4 basis point increase to 3.600%. ⑶ The steepening yield curve indicates that traders are repricing a later and less easing path. The moderate rise at the short end reflects expectations of a policy pause, while the long end is compounded by a rebound in the term premium. ⑷ If subsequent data remains strong, it may only be a matter of time before the 30-year yield tests the psychological level of 4.70%, and volatility is expected to remain high.

19:02:08

Italy's adjusted annual rate of industrial sales on working days in August

Previous : 1.20% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10%

19:02:02

Italy's seasonally adjusted industrial sales monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.70%

19:00:08

Brazil's Composite Market Price Index (IGP-M) monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.42% Forecast : -0.22%

Published Value -0.36%

18:50:33

EUR/USD Forex Signals: The pair remains volatile ahead of the ECB interest rate decision. Details>

18:46:56

The monthly CPI rate of Hesse, Germany in October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

18:46:54

The annual rate of CPI in Hesse, Germany in October

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.40%

18:46:33

Palm oil is hovering at a critical technological juncture; who will be the next game-changer? Details>

33

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3937.67	-63.49 (-1.59%)
XAG	47.074	-0.985 (-2.05%)
CONC	60.35	-0.70 (-1.15%)
OILC	64.19	-0.62 (-0.96%)
USD	100.160	0.296 (0.30%)
EURUSD	1.1477	-0.0041 (-0.36%)
GBPUSD	1.3042	-0.0097 (-0.74%)
USDCNH	7.1320	0.0076 (0.11%)

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