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2025-07-29 Tuesday

2025-08-03

20:55:28

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending July 21

Previous : 5.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.10%

Previous

20:32:42

U.S. retail inventories seasonally adjusted monthly rate for June - preliminary value excluding automobiles

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

Previous

20:32:31

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States for June

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

20:32:13

Preliminary reading of the U.S. goods trade balance for June

Previous : -964.20 Forecast : -982

Published Value -859.90

Previous

20:20:01

[South African Rand Under Pressure: Expectations of Rate Cuts and US Tariffs "Double Hit" Intensify Exchange Rate Volatility] ⑴ The South African rand weakened on Tuesday, July 29th, as investors closely watched the outcome of South Africa's monetary policy meeting and the latest developments in US tariff negotiations. ⑵ South African exports are facing the threat of 30% US tariffs. ⑶ At 20:06 Beijing time, the rand was trading at 17.95 against the US dollar, down approximately 0.5% from Monday's closing price. ⑷ An ETM Analytics research report indicates that with the August 1st deadline approaching and the progress of trade agreement negotiations between South Africa and the United States remaining uncertain, the rand, a risk-sensitive currency, is expected to remain vulnerable. ⑸ Market concerns are that South African negotiators have made little progress and may be forced to accept US demands. ⑹ The South African Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, with economists generally expecting another 25 basis point cut. ⑺ Previous data showed that South Africa's M3 money supply grew 7.27% year-on-year in June, up from 6.86% in May, while credit growth was 4.98%, the same as the previous month. ⑻ Nedbank economists said credit growth is starting to pick up, reflecting the impact of low interest rates and improving household finances. ⑼ Although the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top-40 Index rose 0.4%, South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond weakened, with its yield rising 4.5 basis points to 9.845%.

20:03:05

Trump's Urgent Sanctions Order Against Russia: Oil Market Storm Impending, Global Supply Faces Severe Tests] ⑴ On July 29th, US President Trump unexpectedly shortened the deadline for the most severe sanctions on Russian oil exports, reducing the original 50 days to 10-12 days, sparking significant market concern. ⑵ If so-called secondary sanctions are implemented, 100% tariffs would be imposed on Russian oil buyers, a move that could severely disrupt global oil supplies. ⑶ International Energy Agency data shows that Russia exported 4.68 million barrels per day of crude oil in June, accounting for approximately 4.5% of global demand, in addition to 2.5 million barrels per day of refined products. ⑷ India, the largest importer of Russian crude oil by sea in June, with an average daily import of 1.5 million barrels, may be forced to abandon Rosneft amidst the Sino-US trade negotiations. ⑸ However, China imported approximately 2 million barrels per day of Rosneft via pipeline and sea in June, and its purchasing patterns are less likely to change due to its strategic relationship with Moscow. ⑹ Despite this, if India halts purchases, the Kremlin's finances will still be squeezed. 7. Although OPEC+ began gradually lifting its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cuts in April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait still have a combined 3.8 million bpd of spare production capacity that can be released to the market within 90 days. 8. However, market concerns remain about potential Russian retaliation, such as its previous brief blockade of foreign tankers from loading crude oil at Black Sea ports, which heightens the risk of a surge in oil prices.

20:00:30

[DTE Energy Profit Warning: Can a surge in investment break the deadlock amid weak natural gas and trading revenue?] ⑴ On July 29th, US utility DTE Energy reported second-quarter profits that fell short of Wall Street expectations, primarily due to declining revenue in its natural gas and energy trading divisions. ⑵ A 16.1% drop in natural gas prices in the quarter ended June 30th led to a 22.5% drop in profits in its energy trading division, to $24 million. ⑶ Meanwhile, quarterly profits in the natural gas division plummeted 50% to just $6 million due to rising operating, maintenance, and rate-based costs. ⑷ Despite this, DTE's largest electric division performed well, with second-quarter profits of $318 million, up from $279 million in the same period last year. ⑸ The company reiterated its full-year 2025 adjusted earnings per share forecast of $7.09 to $7.23, roughly in line with analysts' expectations of $7.22. (6) DTE stated that it had invested over $1.8 billion in utilities in the first half of 2025 and plans to invest $4.4 billion for the full year to enhance the safety and reliability of its electric and natural gas infrastructure. (7) These substantial investments are intended to meet the rapidly growing demand of data centers. Despite short-term profit pressure, they are likely to lay a solid foundation for the company in the long term. (8) For the three months ended June 30, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.36, below analysts' expectations of $1.40.

19:58:24

Corning's Earnings Exceed Expectations: AI Demand Fuels Core Sales, Shares Rise Pre-Market] ⑴ On July 29th, specialty glass manufacturer Corning Inc. (Corning) forecast third-quarter core sales to exceed Wall Street expectations, driven by demand for its optical connectivity products driven by artificial intelligence (AI). ⑵ Corning's stock price rose approximately 6% in pre-market trading on this positive news. ⑶ Artificial intelligence continues to drive growth for Corning's products, such as cables and connectors, which are widely used by hyperscale data centers for large-scale computing and data transmission. ⑷ Corning CEO Wendell Weeks stated that new growth drivers are expected in the coming months as new and existing customers seek to leverage Corning's extensive advanced manufacturing base in the United States. ⑸ Corning's largest division, Optical Communications, achieved net sales of $1.57 billion in the second quarter, a 41% year-over-year increase. ⑹ The company's core sales for the quarter increased 12% to $4.05 billion, far exceeding expectations of $3.86 billion. 7. Looking ahead, Corning expects third-quarter core sales of approximately $4.2 billion, higher than the expected $4.01 billion, and core earnings per share of 63 to 67 cents, also higher than the expected 61 cents. 8. Despite previously facing an EU antitrust investigation, Corning avoided potential fines by adjusting its commercial terms, allowing it to focus on seizing market opportunities presented by AI.

19:46:29

[Job Market Weathervane: JOLTS Data May Reveal New Clues for a Fed Rate Cut!] ⑴ On July 29th, the market is closely watching the Bureau of Labor Statistics' upcoming June JOLTS job openings data, which is crucial for assessing the state of the US labor market. ⑵ The market generally expects job openings to decline slightly to 7.55 million in June, a key factor in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. ⑶ Although job openings have been steadily declining since peaking at 12 million in March 2022, they rose for two consecutive months in May of this year, reaching 7.76 million. ⑷ Even though trade agreements with Japan and the EU have eased recession fears, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to avoid easing monetary policy until the labor market deteriorates significantly. ⑸ The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has little expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates at its July 29-30 meeting. ⑹ However, if the JOLTS job openings data falls significantly below 7 million, it could increase expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the current probability of this happening at approximately 60%. ⑺ In this scenario, the US dollar could face immediate downward pressure. ⑻ Conversely, if the data meets or exceeds market expectations, the US dollar is expected to remain strong. ⑼ Regardless of the data, investors are likely to wait and see before the Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday, and the data's impact on US dollar valuations may not be long-lasting.

19:17:45

[Pound Under Pressure: Impact of US-EU Trade Agreement and Multiple Domestic Economic Difficulties] ⑴ On July 29th, the British pound fell to a 10-week low against the strengthening US dollar and hovered near a two-year low against the euro, as the market digested the impact of the US-EU trade agreement. ⑵ The British pound fell to 1.3316 against the US dollar during intraday trading, hitting a new low since May 23, before recovering slightly to 1.33570. ⑶ The news of the US-EU trade framework agreement drove a broad strengthening of the US dollar. ⑷ The euro fell 0.1% against the pound to 86.71 pence, having previously fallen to a two-year high of 87.44 on Monday, marking its biggest single-day drop of 0.78% since mid-April. ⑸ Chris Turner, Head of Global Markets at ING, noted that money market traders believe the European Central Bank is closer to the end of its interest rate cut cycle, which will be positive for the euro against the pound. ⑹ Furthermore, the eurozone's fiscal outlook appears healthier than that of the UK, and the British government may face pressure to raise taxes or increase borrowing this year. ⑺ The UK secured a 10% tariff agreement, lower than the EU's 15% rate, which provided some support for the pound against the euro. ⑻ Although UK shop prices rose by the most in more than a year in July and food prices also increased significantly, adding to inflation signals, weak retail sales and business activity data last week put pressure on the pound, and the Bank of England faced an interest rate dilemma. ⑼ British lenders approved more mortgages than expected last month and consumer borrowing increased, suggesting that the real estate market has recovered from the downturn after the expiration of tax incentives, but overall growth remains weak. ⑽ Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said that although credit data suggested that consumer spending and business sentiment may improve, growth in the second quarter will remain weak, and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to focus on this weak growth outlook, and an interest rate cut in August is still a high probability event.

18:38:55

[Egypt's Economic Mist: Can Reforms Withstand the Double Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rates?] ⑴ A Reuters poll on July 29th projected Egypt's economy to grow by 4.0% in the fiscal year ending in June, an upward revision from the 3.8% forecast in April. ⑵ This growth is driven by reforms supported by IMF financing and stronger manufacturing activity, which are driving a gradual economic recovery. ⑶ Economists' median forecast predicts that Egypt's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate to 4.6% this fiscal year. ⑷ Although Egypt's GDP growth fell to 2.4% last year, the government has accelerated economic reforms under an $8 billion IMF program and received $24 billion in investment from the UAE's sovereign wealth fund. ⑸ Regarding inflation, Egypt's annual urban consumer price index (CPI) has fallen from a peak of 38% in September 2023, falling to 14.9% in June and 16.8% in May. ⑹ Economists project that average headline inflation will decline to 12.5% by fiscal year 2025/26 and to 7.3% by fiscal year 2027/28, but will remain above the central bank's target range of 5%-9% for the fourth quarter of 2026. ⑺ The Egyptian pound is expected to weaken further, falling to 51.1 Egyptian pounds per dollar by the end of June 2026 and to 52.9 Egyptian pounds per dollar by June 2027. The current interbank exchange rate is around 48.6 Egyptian pounds per dollar. ⑻ The Central Bank of Egypt's overnight lending rate is expected to be gradually lowered from the current 25.0% to 17.5% by the end of fiscal year 2025/26 and to 13.0% the following year. ⑼ Despite the Central Bank of Egypt's cumulative interest rate cuts of 325 basis points in April and May, policymakers adopted a more cautious "wait-and-see" approach in July due to oil price volatility and uncertainty about global demand, suggesting a possible slowdown in the monetary easing cycle.

18:32:12

[Merck Earnings Alert: Restructuring for Survival or Market Illusion?] ⑴ On the evening of July 29th, Merck released its second-quarter financial results, reporting sales of $15.81 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.13. ⑵ Core product performance varied. Sales of the cancer drug Keytruda increased 9% to $7.96 billion, while sales of the GARDASIL/GARDASIL 9 vaccine plummeted 55% to $1.13 billion. Sales of JANUVIA/JANUMET also fell 1% to $623 million, primarily due to declining market demand. ⑶ To address these challenges, Merck launched a new multi-year optimization plan, projected to achieve $3 billion in annual cost savings by the end of 2027. ⑷ The plan involves restructuring efforts aimed at streamlining administrative, sales, and R&D positions, and optimizing its global real estate and manufacturing network. $649 million in restructuring charges were incurred in the second quarter. ⑸ Despite the challenges, the company expects the restructuring to generate approximately $1.7 billion in annual cost savings, which will be fully reinvested in new product launches and its pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas. ⑹ In addition, Merck updated its full-year sales forecast to $64.3 billion to $65.3 billion and anticipates a negative foreign exchange impact of approximately $0.15 per share. ⑺ The $200 million cost impact associated with Trump's tariff rhetoric remains unchanged, adding uncertainty to future performance. ⑻ Looking ahead, whether Merck can successfully reverse the decline of some product lines through structural adjustments and new product launches will warrant continued market attention.

18:23:07

[Fed Storm Coming: A Major Reversal in the US Dollar Exchange Rate?] ⑴ On July 29th, the market's focus was on the Federal Reserve. This week's statement and Chairman's speech will directly impact the sensitive nerves of global currencies. ⑵ With the increasing likelihood of an interest rate cut this year and expectations of a January rate cut swirling, the US dollar faces a critical juncture. ⑶ Investors' bets on a falling dollar hinge on whether the Fed can reinforce its signal of two rate cuts, a widely held consensus among economists. ⑷ Although no actual action will be taken in July, the subsequent policy statement and Chairman Powell's comments will be crucial, particularly his previous suggestion that Trump's tariff rhetoric could trigger inflation. ⑸ Since then, the foreign exchange market has calmed down, highlighting the importance of interest rate differentials. This could boost demand for carry trades and provide support for the previously sold-off US dollar. ⑹ Given that US interest rates are significantly higher than those in Japan and the Eurozone, traders holding short US dollar positions will face higher waiting costs if US policymakers remain concerned about inflation. ⑺ US inflation has risen from 2.4% to 2.7%, further deviating from the 2% target. Such concerns could prompt profit-taking, supporting the US dollar. ⑻ Especially given the large short positions in the euro and yen against the dollar, the dollar's support for these two major currencies will be even more significant. ⑼ Due to their large trading volumes, any support from profit-taking in the euro and yen could have a significant impact on less liquid but bullish currencies such as the Mexican peso, Brazilian real, New Taiwan dollar, Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3363.16

73.24

(2.23%)

XAG

37.003

0.319

(0.87%)

CONC

67.26

-2.00

(-2.89%)

OILC

69.48

-2.30

(-3.20%)

USD

98.678

-1.389

(-1.39%)

EURUSD

1.1594

0.0001

(0.01%)

GBPUSD

1.3282

-0.0001

(-0.00%)

USDCNH

7.1909

-0.0006

(-0.01%)