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2026-07-14 Tuesday

2026-07-19

14:04:12

[US June CPI Preview: Gasoline Price Decline Expected to Lower Overall Inflation, But Core Inflation Remains a Cautionary Reminder for the Fed] 1. The US June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Tuesday. Affected by a 15% month-on-month drop in gasoline prices, the market expects the overall CPI to decline by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the first monthly negative growth since the pandemic. The annual inflation rate is expected to slow to 3.8% from 4.2% in May. 2. However, superficial improvements cannot mask deeper problems. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, and the annual core inflation rate will only slightly decline to 2.8% from 2.9% in May, compared to 2.5% at the beginning of the year. Service sector inflation (including rent, car repairs, entertainment, dining out, etc.) reached an annualized rate of 3.4%, higher than January's 2.9% and the 2010-2019 average of 2.6%, remaining a more stubborn part of the inflation picture. Economists point out that the World Cup may have temporarily boosted service costs in June by driving up demand for hotels, flights, and tickets. 3. The energy backdrop remains volatile. Oil prices rose to around $75 a barrel on Monday after the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran broke down, with both sides resuming attacks. Oil prices are still well below the high of around $115 during the conflict, but higher than the pre-conflict level of around $65. If the conflict escalates and disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, oil prices face further upside risks. 4. Against this backdrop, new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh faces a difficult balance. He will testify before Congress for the first time in this capacity this week, needing to demonstrate a serious commitment to curbing inflation while avoiding overly aggressive policy tightening that could lead to excessively tight credit conditions. With core and service sector inflation still well above the Fed's comfort zone, there are considerable doubts about whether inflation can slow fast enough to prevent further interest rate hikes.

14:02:12

Germany's June wholesale price index month-on-month

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.70%

Previous

14:02:11

Germany's June wholesale price index year-on-year

Previous : 5.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.90%

Previous

13:14:11

[High interest rates continue to put pressure on private lending, the industry faces differentiation rather than a systemic crisis] (1) Global central banks are facing a new round of inflationary pressure due to the Middle East conflict pushing up energy prices, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is increasing. In the private lending sector, which generally adopts floating-rate debt, the continued high interest rate environment means that borrowers' debt servicing costs remain high, and the industry is undergoing a new stress test; while the market previously generally assumed that the interest rate surge in 2022-2023 was just a peak and would fall rapidly thereafter. (2) The pressure has manifested itself in the form of extended terms, interest payments in kind, contract waivers and originator capital injections. Currently, more than 10% of direct loans have PIK components (up from 7% at the end of 2022), which analysts regard as a "smoke alarm". The most severely affected are enterprises with weak pricing power, thin profit margins and insufficient buffers, among which real estate-related borrowers and consumer enterprises targeting low-income consumers are particularly vulnerable; in contrast, defensive, non-cyclical industries with strong cash flow visibility are more able to withstand a long-term high-interest environment. (3) Industry insiders pointed out that the current situation is a point of differentiation in the industry rather than a full-blown crisis. Over the next 18 months, lending institutions will diverge more rapidly due to the differences between underwriting downturn scenarios and reliance on unresolved refinancing. Underwriting of borrowers will require case-by-case analysis of profit margins, pricing capabilities, and coverage ratios, rather than relying on size as a basis. High interest rates are forcing lending institutions to become more selective, widening spreads and tightening standards, ultimately differentiating them from managers with genuine risk management capabilities.

12:34:19

Japan's May inventory-to-shipments ratio revised month-on-month figure

Previous : 0.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.70

Previous

12:34:17

Japan's May shipments month-on-month rate revised

Previous : 1.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50

Previous

12:34:15

Japan's May unadjusted industrial production annual rate revised figure

Previous : 2% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

12:34:13

Japan's May seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate revised

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

12:34:11

Japan's May inventory month-on-month rate revised

Previous : -0.60 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.10

Previous

12:32:21

Japan's May Capacity Utilization Index (Year-on-Year) - Unadjusted

Previous : 0.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10

Previous

12:32:18

Japan's May Capacity Utilization Index - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 102.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 103

Previous

12:32:17

Japan's May Capacity Utilization Index (MoM) - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : -0.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

12:32:15

Japan's May production capacity index month-on-month

Previous : -0.20 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.40

Previous

12:32:14

Japan's May production capacity index (year-on-year)

Previous : -1 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.30

Previous

12:32:11

Japan's May production capacity index

Previous : 94.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 94.50

Previous

12:22:10

[Hungarian Parliament Passes Constitutional Amendment, Prematurely Terminating Pro-Orbán President's Term] 1. On July 13, local time, the Hungarian Parliament passed the 17th amendment to the Basic Law with 139 votes in favor and 6 against. The core content of the amendment is to prematurely terminate the term of current President Szów Szów. Szów's term will end the day after the amendment takes effect, and Parliament will elect a new president within 30 days. 2. This constitutional amendment was spearheaded by the Tissa Party, led by current Prime Minister Majol. The party won a landslide victory in the April elections, securing a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Majol had previously called for Szów's resignation, criticizing him as a "puppet" of former Prime Minister Orbán. If the president does not sign the amendment within five days, Parliament will initiate impeachment proceedings. 3. In addition to terminating the president's term, the amendment includes several systemic reforms: setting a 12-year term limit for members of Parliament, setting the mandatory retirement age for Constitutional Court judges at 70, restoring the Constitutional Court's power to review budget and tax legislation, and providing a constitutional basis for the establishment of an office for the recovery and protection of state assets. 4. Former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) did not participate in the vote, arguing that the amendment "violates democracy." Shuyuk criticized Maujörg as attempting to manipulate public opinion and interfere with presidential power, calling his actions "violate constitutional order." Orbán departed for the United States on Monday to watch the World Cup matches.

12:16:12

[Iran Rushes to Ship Crude Oil Before Lockdown Resumption, Successfully Exporting 57 Million Barrels Between Two Blockades] 1. Before the US announced the reimposition of port blockades on Iran, Iran secretly smuggled a large amount of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Ship tracking data shows that in the past week, six very large crude carriers (VLCCs) sanctioned by the US transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off, carrying a total of approximately 12 million barrels of crude oil. These tankers included the supertanker "Humanity," carrying approximately 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, and the "Captain Andreas," carrying approximately 500,000 barrels of Kuwaiti petroleum products. 2. These six tankers, along with other vessels linked to Iran, completed their voyages after the US revoked its temporary permit for Iranian crude oil sales on July 7. The US Treasury Department issued a 60-day waiver on June 21, allowing Iran to temporarily export oil, but the waiver was revoked after only 15 days. Final transactions were allowed to extend until midnight on July 17. 3. In addition to the six oil tankers mentioned above, a large number of Iranian-related vessels under US sanctions have also left the Strait of Hormuz since July 7. These vessels are part of the 57 million barrels of crude oil that Iran successfully exported between the two rounds of US naval blockades. Between the two blockades, Iran's daily crude oil exports averaged at least 2.2 million barrels, a relatively high level by recent standards. 4. Data shows that all six cargo ships that transited the strait on July 12 turned off their transponders; in the preceding three days, the number of "secret ships" navigating with their transponders off even exceeded the number of ships openly passing through. Some ships were still on one side of the strait when they last sent a signal, but reappeared on the other side, indicating that they completed the transit with their transponders off. Only six ships passed through the strait on July 12, marking the lowest number in five weeks.

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