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2026-09-16 Wednesday

2026-09-22

19:11:34

[Urban President Ursula von der Leyen Delivers State of the Union Address, Focusing on AI, Climate, and Supply Chain Risks] ⑴ In her annual State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that we are currently in a "critical era," highlighting security threats and calling for a European version of the security consultation mechanism, the establishment of a European Security Council, and strengthening the EU's domestic security response capabilities. ⑵ The EU plans to introduce the EU Children's Digital Protection Act, which aims to ban children under 12 from using social media, restrict personal accounts for users under 14, and require platforms to design safe products for young people. The bill still needs to be reviewed by the European Parliament and member states. In the autumn, the supporting framework for the Digital Services Act will be updated, and the focus will be on promoting the application of industrial AI in five key areas: healthcare, transportation, food and agriculture, high-end manufacturing, and defense and aerospace. A series of key industry initiatives will be announced in November. ⑶ Europe is warming at approximately twice the global average. This year, forest fires have burned approximately 620,000 hectares in many areas, resulting in crop losses of approximately 11 million tons. The EU will launch a heatwave response plan, establish a European fire-fighting coordination force, release a new climate resilience framework in October, designate 95 highly vulnerable areas, and vigorously develop climate adaptation-related technologies and industries. (4) The EU proposed promoting energy electrification, aiming to double the share of electricity consumption by 2040; it also stated its intention to reduce external dependence on key raw materials, planning to establish a European Key Raw Materials Authority to ensure the stockpiling of materials for industries such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, and clean energy equipment. (5) The EU proposed granting Canada the first EU quasi-associate member status to further deepen bilateral cooperation and address current changes in the global trade landscape.

19:01:52

[British Prime Minister Emphasizes Fiscal Discipline as Pre-Budget Pressure Rises] ⑴ British Prime Minister Burnham stated that he is prepared to make the difficult decisions needed to keep the UK economy on track, following Wednesday's data showing rising inflation and increasing speculation about the impact of the October 28th budget. ⑵ The UK is considered more vulnerable than other countries to the impact of the Middle East wars on oil prices, and the rising inflation makes the Chancellor's position more difficult, as his budget options are limited by weak public finances and rising borrowing costs. ⑶ Burnham said that the August inflation rate of 3.1%, a five-month high, was worrying, but the government will take action to help the public while remaining prudent in managing the economy. ⑷ He told reporters that difficult decisions will be made to ensure the economy stays on track, and that the latest data reflects a resilient economy. ⑸ This week, UK government borrowing costs rose to their highest level in decades as escalating Gulf conflict fueled inflation concerns, and global bond yields generally climbed. ⑹ On Tuesday, the 30-year UK gilt yield hit its highest level since 1998, and on Monday, the 10-year yield rose to its highest level since 2007. (7) Burnham emphasized his readiness to make tough choices to balance the books, following criticism from a former Bank of England official who suggested the market doubted the current government's traditional role as a socialist government focused on taxation and spending, only better at it in short videos. (8) Burnham denied this, stating he had made difficult decisions in his position and was not incapable of doing so. (9) With high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and the approaching budget, the market is scrutinizing the UK's fiscal path more closely, with subsequent budget details and the direction of UK bond yields becoming key areas of focus.

19:00:00

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending September 11

Previous : 687.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 627.10

Previous

19:00:00

US MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending September 11

Previous : 6.85% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.97%

Previous

19:00:00

US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index for the Week Ending September 11

Previous : 240.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 230.80

Previous

19:00:00

The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week ending September 11th week-over-week change

Previous : -2.70% Forecast : -

Published Value -4.10%

Previous

19:00:00

The MBA Mortgage Purchase Index for the week ending September 11

Previous : 157.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 156.20

Previous

19:00:00

Brazil's September IGP-10 inflation index month-on-month rate

Previous : -0.51% Forecast : 1.25%

Published Value 1.47%

Previous

19:00:00

South Africa's July retail sales year-on-year

Previous : 1.60% Forecast : 0.90%

Published Value 3.40%

Previous

18:56:38

[CBOT Grain and Oilseed Positions Diverge, Soybean Futures See Increased Open Interest] ⑴ On the previous trading day, CBOT corn futures saw a total trading volume of approximately 356,000 contracts, with total open interest decreasing to approximately 1,844,000 contracts, a decrease of approximately 2,800 contracts from the previous day. The December contract saw a decrease of over 3,100 contracts in open interest. ⑵ Mini corn futures saw a trading volume of approximately 600 contracts, with open interest increasing slightly to approximately 15,000 contracts. ⑶ Oat futures saw a trading volume of approximately 360 contracts, with open interest rising slightly to approximately 3,300 contracts; rough rice futures saw a trading volume of approximately 700 contracts, with open interest decreasing to approximately 13,000 contracts. ⑷ Soybean futures saw a trading volume of approximately 247,000 contracts, with total open interest increasing to approximately 1,105,000 contracts, an increase of approximately 9,900 contracts from the previous day. The January contract saw an increase of over 7,100 contracts in open interest, while the November contract saw an increase of approximately 1,300 contracts. ⑸ Mini soybean futures saw a trading volume of approximately 1,100 contracts, with open interest remaining largely unchanged at approximately 29,000 contracts. (6) Soybean meal futures traded approximately 233,000 lots, with total open interest increasing to approximately 684,000 lots, an increase of approximately 5,100 lots. The December and January contracts saw increases of approximately 3,200 and 5,300 lots respectively, while the October contract saw a decrease of over 5,500 lots. (7) Soybean oil futures traded approximately 156,000 lots, with total open interest decreasing to approximately 606,000 lots, a decrease of approximately 3,200 lots. The October and December contracts saw significant decreases in open interest. (8) Chicago soft red winter wheat futures traded approximately 128,000 lots, with total open interest decreasing to approximately 485,000 lots, a decrease of approximately 900 lots. Mini wheat traded approximately 640 lots, with open interest slightly increasing to approximately 4,300 lots. (9) Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded approximately 48,000 lots, with total open interest decreasing to approximately 311,000 lots, a decrease of approximately 800 lots. The December contract saw a decrease of nearly 1,900 lots in open interest. (10) Overall, soybean-related commodities saw increased fund inflows, while corn and wheat positions declined, indicating a divergence in market allocation between grains and oilseeds.

18:56:08

[UK Bonds Receive Double Support, Yield Curve Steepens] ⑴ Moderate UK core inflation data, coupled with a decline in oil prices, provided buying support for UK gilt futures, leading to lower yields across the board. ⑵ Brent crude futures fell more than 1% to around $108 per barrel, as a report showed a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories, with gasoline and diesel inventories also rising, while the market had expected a decline. ⑶ December UK gilt futures are currently up about 52 ticks to 84.58. Price action today was volatile before the US stock market opened, with the market adjusting positions in anticipation of the key Fed rate decision later in the day. ⑷ The contract gapped up at the Asian session, came under pressure again before the inflation data release, and then rebounded more than 20 ticks after the August core annual inflation rate was flat compared to the previous month, with the slight increase in overall inflation in line with expectations. ⑸ The data seemed to alleviate market concerns about the risk of increased inflation due to the Iranian oil shock, triggering a repricing of front-end yields in the morning session. (6) The UK gilt curve steepened in a bull market, with the 2-year yield falling by about 6.5 basis points to 4.82%, and the 10-year yield falling by about 4 basis points to approximately 5.34%, resulting in a steepening of about 2.5 basis points in the 2s/10s segment. (7) This was a UK-led trend, with German yield curve yields rising only slightly, while US Treasury yields fell by about 1 to 2 basis points, also led by the front end.

18:41:13

[Trump-related developments are frequent, with multiple events intertwined] ⑴ The U.S. House of Representatives rejected Representative Al Green's impeachment motion against Trump by a vote of 232 to 147, marking the third time in two years that an impeachment attempt has failed. ⑵ Trump criticized several Supreme Court rulings on social media, claiming the mail-in voting ruling was unfavorable to Republicans, that rulings related to Trump's tariffs would cost the U.S. trillions of dollars over the years, and that the birthright citizenship ruling was a disaster that led to widespread corruption regarding citizenship. ⑶ A U.S. judge ruled to temporarily prohibit the reinstatement of Trump's name on the exterior of the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., and also prohibited the renaming of the plaza to Trump Plaza. ⑷ According to informed U.S. officials, the Trump administration plans to sell approximately $2.8 billion worth of munitions to Israel, including tens of thousands of 2,000-pound bombs, specifically 20,000 MK-84s and 20,000 BLU-117s. ⑸ Senior Trump administration officials met with Anthropic executives in Washington on Tuesday to discuss artificial intelligence security risks. Anthropic's Chief Computing Officer spoke via video with the Pentagon's Chief Technology Officer and the Secretary of Commerce. (6) The U.S. Attorney General stated that the FBI recently discovered more information about the gunman who attempted to assassinate Trump in 2024, involving his personal background and experience, but specific details were not released. (7) Multiple clues are emerging simultaneously, indicating that Trump faces continued scrutiny in areas such as legislation, the judiciary, and foreign military sales. Market sentiment may be indirectly affected by concerns arising from Trump's tariff rhetoric.

18:40:58

[Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets, Energy Transport Under Concern] ⑴ The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday dropped to four, far below the 10-day average of 18 and fewer than the seven recorded the previous day. ⑵ Preliminary shipping data shows two ships departing and two entering on the day, with escalating regional attacks leading to a continued slump in shipping activity in this strategic waterway. ⑶ Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. The latest data indicates a significant decrease in reported ship traffic, but some ships may not have been counted. ⑷ Of the four passages recorded on Tuesday, no Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or liquefied natural gas carriers (LNG carriers) were included; some ships may have sailed with their transponders off and thus not been included in the reported data. ⑸ One VLCC departed via the Iranian route carrying approximately 470,000 barrels of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and another Panamax tanker departed via an unknown, unofficial route carrying approximately 510,000 barrels of naphtha. (6) Both vessels entering the strait that day were carrying cargo: one was a short-haul heavy product tanker, and the other was a dry bulk carrier, both entering via the Iranian route. (7) Meanwhile, traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was relatively smooth on Tuesday, with 22 vessels recorded, only slightly lower than the 24 recorded the previous day. (8) There may be discrepancies between reported data and actual traffic volume; vessels with their transponders off may indicate that the actual flow is higher than reported, and market concerns about disruptions to energy transport continue to escalate.

18:38:58

[Major Currency Options Expiration Ahead of Fed Decision Draws Attention] ⑴ Multiple foreign exchange options will expire at 10 PM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the market is watching potential volatility around these strike prices. ⑵ For EUR/USD, approximately 700 million units will expire in the 1.1490-1.1500 range, approximately 200 million around 1.1525, approximately 1.1 billion in the 1.1550-1.1560 range, and 2.3 billion in the 1.1585-1.1595 range. ⑶ Approximately 450 million units of USD/CHF will expire around 0.8150, and approximately 480 million units of EUR/GBP will expire in the 0.8555-0.8560 range. ⑷ Multiple GBP/USD options will expire at 1.3400, 1.3445-1.3450, 1.3475, and 1.3490, with sizes ranging from approximately 170 million to 280 million. (5) Approximately 1.3 billion and 1.2 billion units of the Australian dollar option expire at around 0.7130 and 0.7175 respectively, and about 700 million units at around 0.7150. Approximately 550 million units of the US dollar option expire in the 1.3950-1.3960 range against the Canadian dollar. (6) The US dollar option expires most concentratedly against the Japanese yen, with approximately 2.2 billion units expiring in the 154.90-155.00 range, and approximately 320 million, 360 million, and 640 million units expiring at around 155.50, 155.65, and 156.00 respectively. (7) Before the Fed's interest rate decision, these option expiries may amplify short-term volatility in the relevant currency pairs near the strike price. Traders should pay attention to the impact of liquidity changes on prices.

18:25:41

[German Beer Prices Become an Alternative Inflation Indicator, with This Year's Increase the Smallest in 20 Years] ⑴ Germany is famous for its beer, and Munich's Oktoberfest has evolved from a long-standing folk festival into a large-scale tourist event, with beer consumed in units of a liter "maç". ⑵ The price of a mug of beer is always a hot topic, but UBS's chief economist for Germany, Andreas Rees, believes it may have a greater use. ⑶ He states that the long history of Oktoberfest offers economists one advantage: the price of a mug of beer provides an extremely simple alternative inflation indicator. ⑷ This year, the average price of a mug of beer was €15.61, a 2.4% increase from last year. While this sounds significant, Rees says it is actually the smallest increase in 20 years. ⑸ This increase is also significantly lower than the Eurozone's inflation expectations for this year, although historically, Oktoberfest beer price increases have far exceeded overall consumer price increases. ⑹ Rees explains that Oktoberfest beer prices depend on a peculiar combination of factors: harvest, energy prices, wages, tent costs, security, and the generous spending of millions of visitors. (7) Some of these factors are clearly related to classic inflation indicators, but the more specific conditions of beer and the event itself seem to complicate forecasting any potentially high levels of inflation. (8) Rees stated that forecasting consumer price inflation is difficult enough, but forecasting inflation with bubbles is likely even more difficult.

18:16:50

[ECB Wage Tracker Indicator Points to Moderate Increase in the First Half of 2027] ⑴ The ECB Wage Tracker Indicator has been updated to cover the wage agreement signed at the end of August 2026, with forward-looking coverage extended to the end of June 2027. ⑵ Forward-looking information indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in the first half of 2027. ⑶ Employee coverage will remain limited at 28.8% in the first half of 2027, but will gradually increase as the wage agreement is signed. ⑷ The tracker covers active collective bargaining agreements, showing negotiated wage pressure of 2.2% in 2026 after smoothing out one-off payments, based on 46.9% employee coverage in participating countries. ⑸ The overall wage tracker indicator is 2.7% in Q1 2027, based on 32.5% coverage, and 2.8% in Q2, based on 25.1% coverage. (6) The lower wage tracking indicator in the first half of 2026 reflects the mechanical downward pull of one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year; these effects completely dissipate in the second half of 2026. (7) The wage tracking indicator after smoothing one-off payments has been slightly revised downward for 2026 compared to the data released in July 2026. (8) The overall wage tracking indicator remains largely unchanged for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, despite a significant increase in employee coverage. (9) The wage tracking indicator without smoothing one-off payments slowed to 2.6% in 2026 from 3.0% in 2025, while the wage tracking indicator excluding one-off payments averaged 2.6% in 2026, indicating that one-off payments had a limited impact on recent collective bargaining agreements. (10) On a quarterly basis, all indicators were 2.7% in Q1 2027 and 2.8% in Q2 2027. (11) The overall wage tracking indicator is better suited to describing the quarterly or monthly dynamics of negotiated wages because it smooths out one-off payments over time, while the unsmoothed indicator is better suited to describing annual dynamics. (12) This tracking indicator may be revised, and its forward-looking portion should not be interpreted as a prediction, as it only captures information available for currently active collective bargaining agreements.

18:13:14

[US Treasuries Follow Japanese Bonds in Attempt Rebound; Market Focuses on Fed Decision] ⑴ US Treasuries rose slightly ahead of the Fed's expected rate hike later in the day, mirroring the trend in Japanese government bonds, with the market anticipating further rate hikes. ⑵ As of 6:00 AM New York time, trading volume for 10-year US Treasury futures was approximately 355,000 contracts. ⑶ Some media outlets pointed out that US companies are currently unsure how to price correctly, with the latest inflation data indicating that prices are still rising too rapidly. Business owners and policymakers are grappling with whether high energy costs are a temporary problem or a long-term economic reality requiring immediate price increases. ⑷ Other reports indicate that US incomes hit record highs last year, with high-income households performing well and women's wages rising relative to men's. ⑸ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a plan to make Canada the EU's first associate member state, stating that the EU must urgently rethink its partnerships. ⑹ EU member states reacted coldly to Canada's proposal to form a "unique alliance" with the EU, frustrating Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's vision. (7) US researchers warned this month of potential existential threats from AI, but their counterparts in other countries believe that the US's determination to dominate the technology makes it more difficult for all parties to find common ground on security issues. (8) OpenAI is considering a pre-IPO funding round with a valuation of approximately $1.2 trillion; the company raised $122 billion in March at a valuation of $852 billion. (9) UK inflation rose to 3.1%, but the data offered some comfort to the Bank of England. (10) Reports indicate that France will support Dutchman Knott to succeed Lagarde as president of the European Central Bank, provided that the position of chief economist of the ECB is held by a Frenchman; this move may face strong opposition from Germany.

18:07:32

[Japanese Rubber Futures Rebound, Supported by Supply Concerns and Declining Inventories] ⑴ Japanese rubber futures rose on Wednesday, ending a five-day losing streak, supported by supply concerns triggered by heavy rains in Thailand and declining inventories in China. ⑵ The February delivery rubber contract on the Osaka Exchange rose 4.6 yen, or about 1%, to 425.2 yen per kilogram. ⑶ The January delivery rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 100 yuan, or about 0.5%, to 18,875 yuan per ton. ⑷ The most actively traded October butadiene rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 390 yuan, or about 2.6%, to 15,260 yuan per ton. ⑸ Thailand's meteorological agency warned of severe rainfall and flash floods from September 17 to 21. ⑹ Analysts stated in a report that raw material prices in Thailand are expected to remain high as seasonal supply growth is offset by disruptions from continued rainfall, providing cost support for natural rubber. (7) Analysts say tire companies bought as prices fell, Qingdao inventories continued to decline, and TSR20 rubber futures inventories were at low levels. (8) China is the world's largest rubber consumer, and its inventory levels are closely watched as an indicator of regional demand. (9) A Singapore trader said that after profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing, futures prices have fallen below the spot price spread, suggesting that the spread will narrow in the coming days. (10) The latest price for the December delivery near-month rubber contract on the Singapore Exchange's SICOM platform was 235.7 US cents per kilogram, up about 0.9%.

18:01:48

[A Sharp Correction in AI Stocks Could Cause Unexpected Global Impact] ⑴ Previously, investors were primarily concerned that artificial intelligence was failing to meet expectations. However, since last weekend, the core concern has shifted to the possibility that its creators themselves might slow down development due to fears of other worst-case scenarios. ⑵ High expectations surrounding leading tech companies, coupled with concerns about their revolving financing models, have put continuous pressure on the industry for months. ⑶ Now, Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Microsoft have requested a slowdown in the development of more advanced AI models, introducing new tensions: these companies may cut spending, a key driver of the current economy. ⑷ However, investors did not flee en masse; the tech-heavy Nasdaq index saw little movement on Monday. ⑸ But what if this confidence were to crumble? Rating agency Fitch has provided a quantitative scenario: if AI sector stocks fall by 35% within six months, the US will enter a recession in 2027. ⑹ The impact will spread globally, with global GDP growth falling below 1% next year. (7) The shock will be twofold: On the one hand, investors holding AI stock savings will lose wealth, and this applies not only to Americans; the European Central Bank estimates that eurozone households hold €444 billion in US tech stocks. (8) On the other hand, under tighter financial conditions, private capital spending on technology infrastructure will decline by up to 6%. Lower demand means lower prices, leading to a decline in inflation across economies, prompting central banks to cut interest rates to mitigate the shock. (9) This is not Fitch's primary scenario, but it is far from the most pessimistic either. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) says the stock market correction could be larger than suggested by the early wave of innovation. (10) The dot-com bubble at the turn of the millennium caused the S&P 500 to fall by 50% in two years, and a BIS study in early 2026 suggests the current correction could be even greater. (11) Both Fitch and the BIS's concerns are based on the depreciation of related stocks as investors reassess the profitability of the AI sector. At a Goldman Sachs event last week, the investment bank concluded that companies are increasingly demanding measurable results from AI investments. 12. A recent report by consulting firm McKinsey stated that only 37% of companies that have introduced AI systems have noticed a positive impact on gross profit, while AI investment continues to grow, and ING estimates it will account for one-third of the US economy this year.

18:01:15

[Wash's Stance May Be More Crucial Than the Rate Hike Itself] ⑴ The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday. This decision, driven by persistently high inflation and rising global borrowing costs, will draw close attention to how Fed Chairman Warsh describes his first monetary policy shift under his tenure. ⑵ The rate hike contradicts Trump's expectations when nominating Warsh to lead the Fed. He had previously stated that he expected his nominee to cut rates and recently threatened to impose new import tariffs if the Fed did not lower borrowing costs. ⑶ However, a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate to 3.75% to 4.00% is almost a certainty, as inflation appears to remain stuck above the 2% target, long-term global borrowing costs are rising, and Warsh faces questions about his willingness to defy Trump's demands. ⑷ The pressing issue now is how Warsh will frame this policy decision and whether global bond investors will see it as a credible response to inflation, which has been above the target for more than five years and has risen since the start of Trump's current term. (5) Some economists say that a rate hike coupled with unanimous voting would be a strong signal, especially if accompanying economic forecasts indicate policymakers expect another rate hike this year, and perhaps another in 2027. (6) This economist believes Warsh's remarks at Jackson Hole last month are in line with the current situation, namely that if inflation does not fall at a sufficient pace, more work needs to be done. (7) The challenging scenario is if Warsh sounds dovish, saying this is just a minor adjustment, the market will react poorly. (8) The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and updated quarterly economic projections at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, including officials' estimates of the appropriate policy rate at the end of the year. (9) In the projections released in June, 9 of the 19 officials believed that interest rates would need to rise by at least 25 basis points by the end of 2026, and 9 believed they could remain unchanged or fall by 25 basis points. Warsh himself did not submit a projection. (10) Support for rate hikes continued to accumulate thereafter. At the July 28-29 meeting, three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike, and several others subsequently stated that they were prepared to raise rates unless inflation showed signs of slowing down soon. (11) Inflation did not slow down. The Fed's personal consumption expenditures price index, which targets the 2% growth rate, rose 3.7% year-on-year in June and July, and the data released on September 30 was expected to show little change. (12) Although many economists still believe that inflationary pressures may eventually ease, the recent rise in oil prices above $100 per barrel, Trump's new tariffs on Canada and threats of further import taxes, and continued economic growth driven by the surge in artificial intelligence spending have led Fed officials to believe that the risks are significant enough to warrant action.

18:01:04

[Bond Market Plight May Be a Consideration for the Fed, But Intervention Unlikely] ⑴ Soaring US government bond yields are pushing up credit costs across the US, potentially becoming a factor in the Fed's monetary policy discussions. However, analysts believe the central bank will resist any explicit calls from the Trump administration to bail out the market. ⑵ Treasury Secretary Bessant has taken an unusually proactive role in trying to lower yields he considers inconsistent with the US economic outlook, including expanding a key debt repurchase operation last week. ⑶ However, this effort is faltering, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Bessant attributed this to "global problems" when he arrived at Congress for a hearing on Tuesday. ⑷ The bond market slump raises questions: Could the Fed be asked to buy government debt to reduce supply, thereby limiting or lowering yields and easing borrowing costs for the government and private sector? ⑸ Fed watchers believe this prospect is slim unless the market is in distress, and despite continued price declines, there is currently little evidence of distress. ⑹ Comments by Fed Chairman Warsh suggest a willingness to coordinate with the Treasury on certain issues, perpetuating these concerns. (7) BlackRock's chief bond investment manager stated that financial conditions are one of the Federal Reserve's unwritten responsibilities, and policymakers must consider this factor when influencing debt costs by adjusting short-term interest rates. (8) The Federal Reserve is expected to conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% due to recent high inflation data. (9) Market participants believe this will benefit the Treasury, as it will enhance the Fed's credibility in combating inflation, and long-term yields should decline over time. (10) A Deutsche Bank investor survey released Monday showed that investors believe a rate hike now might slightly increase yields in the short term, but long-term yields will rise more if the Fed keeps rates unchanged. (11) Most analysts agree that it is not feasible for central bank officials for the Treasury to push for large-scale intervention by the Fed to limit yields. 12 Some economists have pointed out that Warsh is very concerned about the credibility of the Federal Reserve and himself. The Treasury has already damaged its credibility due to its market intervention. The leadership of the Federal Reserve has no intention of getting involved. For the Federal Reserve, the stakes are even greater than those of the Treasury.

17:58:15

[Trump Administration Tightens Federal Data, Raising Concerns About Political Interference] ⑴ The area of federal data, traditionally apolitical, is increasingly being drawn into the Trump administration's control over all levels of government. ⑵ Federal agencies are changing how they collect and release information, with politics and ideology increasingly becoming part of the process. ⑶ Reliable, impartial data underpins almost everything in the federal government, from distributing benefits and enforcing workplace anti-discrimination laws to responding to public health threats. ⑷ Recent actions involve multiple agencies and various data sources; Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy requested the CDC remove the description of two deaths in Pennsylvania from its online measles case statistics. ⑸ The CDC had previously accepted explanations from Pennsylvania officials regarding the connection between the deaths and measles; Kennedy and the Pennsylvania governor have been exchanging accusations on social media for days, each accusing the other of politicizing the deaths. ⑹ Last month, the Commerce Department removed wording from its science integrity policy prohibiting political interference; this department oversees agencies such as the Census Bureau. (7) This move comes after the Census Bureau released an unsigned report claiming 24,000 non-citizens voted in the 2020 election, which Trump quickly touted. (8) The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission plans to stop collecting data that helps investigate workplace discrimination complaints; for 60 years, the agency has enforced anti-discrimination laws by examining the demographic composition of companies' workforces. (9) The commission now plans to eliminate the so-called EEO-1 report, which requires companies to provide workforce data by race, ethnicity, gender, and job title. This move comes as the Trump administration is cracking down on diversity, fairness, and inclusion initiatives. (10) A former chief data scientist stated that the current administration is more politicized than she has seen in her 25-year career. (11) A White House spokesperson stated that the Trump administration is committed to providing Americans with timely, accurate, and relevant data, ensuring that critical data such as public health reflects reality, while refusing to waste taxpayer resources on ideological projects. (12) Some analysts point out that data, like bridges or cell phone signals, is an invisible infrastructure; people often only notice its existence when they lose it.

17:57:28

[Most US Lawmakers Don't Use AI, Yet Demand Regulation] ⑴ According to Axios, US lawmakers and governors are facing increasing pressure to regulate artificial intelligence, but more than 20 respondents said they do not use or rarely use the technology. ⑵ This frankness comes particularly from older and influential lawmakers, at a time when there are calls to cool down AI and industry warnings that it could endanger humanity if left unchecked. ⑶ Critics argue that politicians who don't use or even disdain AI cannot understand its rapid evolution and the threats or scientific breakthroughs it may pose. ⑷ One House Democrat called it "absurd," arguing that any regulator should be a regular user. ⑸ A 35-year-old Democratic digital strategist said understanding what AI can do is crucial for determining how to regulate it. ⑹ 47-year-old Republican Senator Jim Banks also said that experience with AI would be helpful when starting legislation on AI-related issues. ⑺ Several lawmakers, including senior members and heads of key committees, told the media that they have never even tried AI. (8) When asked if he uses artificial intelligence, 75-year-old Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wick replied, "Oh my god, no." (9) 74-year-old Frank Palon, the senior Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, stated that he has never personally used it. (10) 78-year-old Senator Keiko Hirono said "no," but added that it didn't mean she wouldn't use it, and believed Congress didn't yet have a grasp on how much AI to regulate. (11) 83-year-old Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman James Risch and 83-year-old House Appropriations Committee senior Democrat Rosa DeLauro both stated that they personally do not use it. (12) Some lawmakers believe that they can legislate on AI without personally using it, but others expressed surprise or dissatisfaction that their colleagues don't use the technologies they are trying to regulate.

17:55:39

[China-Germany Cooperation Conference on Automated and Connected Driving Held in Berlin, Germany] On September 14, 2026, the China-Germany Cooperation Conference on Automated and Connected Driving was held in Berlin, Germany. During the conference, both sides conducted thematic discussions on key topics such as technical standards and regulations for intelligent connected vehicles and type approval, road testing and demonstration applications, vehicle data management and security, V2X technology applications, and pilot projects for "vehicle-road-cloud integration." They also had in-depth communication on the next stage of cooperation models and key areas of exchange. Both sides agreed that the China-Germany Cooperation Conference on Automated and Connected Driving has become an important platform for regular information exchange and collaboration between government departments, industry organizations, and key enterprises of both countries. Going forward, both sides will continue to uphold the concept of open cooperation, deepen pragmatic cooperation in multiple fields, actively promote the coordination and mutual recognition of standards and regulations in the field of automated and connected driving, continuously deepen the application of V2X communication technology and data management, further strengthen the coordination and linkage of international standards and regulations, and work together to address the common challenges and industry problems in the global intelligent connected vehicle industry. (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)

17:54:56

[Eurozone Wage Growth Slows, Inflationary Pressures Under Control] ⑴ Eurozone wage growth continued to slow last quarter, despite a slight rebound in inflation and negotiated wage contracts indicating only a modest acceleration next year, providing reassurance to ECB policymakers that inflation remains under control. ⑵ The ECB is closely monitoring wage trends to determine whether the recent surge in energy price-driven inflation is fueling excessive wage demands, which could trigger a difficult-to-break wage-price spiral, requiring more aggressive policy tightening. ⑶ The ECB has raised interest rates twice this year but has indicated that only moderate tightening is needed, as the current inflationary shock is far less severe than in 2022, when price increases exceeded 10% and the central bank's response was lagging. ⑷ Eurostat data released Wednesday showed that the annual increase in labor costs slowed to 3.1% in the second quarter from 3.3% three months earlier, after exceeding 5% at the peak of the 2022-2023 inflation crisis. ⑸ Other ECB data indicates that negotiated wage growth will only rise moderately in the first half of 2027 after remaining largely stable for the remainder of this year. (6) Key ECB indicators show negotiated wage growth at 2.6% to 2.7% by the end of the first quarter of next year, subsequently rising to 2.8%. (7) The ECB has long maintained that 3% wage growth is broadly consistent with its 2% inflation target, and its forecasts earlier this month still indicated that wage pressures would be only moderate given some weakness in the labor market. (8) The ECB's main concern is that high energy costs will eventually drive up the costs of other goods and services, and unions will respond by demanding compensation. (9) However, current data does not show any signs of this, surprising some policymakers.

17:53:25

[Greece Aims to Become European Hedge Fund Hub, Taxes and Recovery as Selling Points] ⑴ Greece is attracting financiers with its favorable taxes, improved economy, and Mediterranean lifestyle, striving to become a new hub for European hedge fund capital. ⑵ Athens' efforts have yielded results, with Millennium Management establishing an office there and billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos deciding to leave the UK for Greece. ⑶ Greek officials are betting that attracting such institutions will make it easier to persuade smaller funds and financial professionals to follow suit. ⑷ This shift is quite remarkable for a country long associated with sovereign debt problems and economic instability. ⑸ Greece subsequently repaired its public finances, regained its investment-grade credit rating, and outperformed most European countries, with government borrowing costs even lower than some larger economies. ⑹ An advisor to the Greek Finance Minister stated that the country's healthy finances and consistent surpluses provide predictable tax revenue and macroeconomic stability. ⑺ Financial incentives are also substantial, with eligible newly wealthy individuals enjoying a flat tax of €100,000 per year on foreign income, a policy unchanged since 2019. (8) In contrast, Italy has repeatedly increased the costs of its competitive program, and Greece has specifically added incentives for the investment industry, allowing qualified fund managers to pay only 5% tax on accrued rights and bonuses after becoming Greek tax residents. (9) The Greek government states that its goal is not merely to become a haven for wealthy foreigners, but also to ensure that investment companies truly operate in Athens, creating high-paying financial jobs, attracting overseas Greek talent back, and fostering a local asset management industry. (10) Timing is also favorable for Greece. British tax increases have reduced its appeal to some wealthy financial professionals, and geopolitical instability has added another layer of concern for those already considering it as a Middle Eastern financial center. (11) However, practical obstacles remain. Athens needs more luxury housing, quality private schools, and the amenities expected by high-paid international financial professionals and their families. (12) The aforementioned consultant frankly admits that Greece will not become a wealth center overnight; it will take several years. However, the arrival of Millennium Management and Rokos provides something more important than tax breaks: a validation effect.

17:51:58

[Energy Shock Overestimated, Bond and Currency Markets May Overreact] ⑴ Current market concerns about inflation may be exaggerated because the current energy price increase is relatively limited compared to the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. ⑵ European natural gas prices surged approximately tenfold back then, while this year they have only doubled; US crude oil once reached $130 per barrel, and natural gas broke through $10, but are now around $3 each. ⑶ Even so, the US inflation rate at that time only rose from nearly 8% to about 9%, while this year's US inflation has already exceeded that of 2022, yet the energy price shock has been much smaller. ⑷ The 2022 war took place in a major grain-producing region, while the current Middle East situation does not have this factor, so the reasons for pushing up inflation then were actually more compelling than they are now. ⑸ However, the market reaction has been quite the opposite, with bonds experiencing a large-scale sell-off this year, and yields rising to levels not seen in many years, reflecting a significant increase in concerns about energy-driven inflation. (6) In 2022, the bond market was still digesting the positions accumulated during the years of ultra-low interest rates, and has since shifted to a large number of short positions, which may help limit further declines in bond prices. (7) If the US economy could withstand a larger energy price shock when the bond market was far less prepared than it is today, then current positioning in the currency market may also be excessive. (8) Traders bought the US dollar and energy-exporting currencies while selling energy-importing currencies, especially emerging market currencies. The Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, Turkish lira, and trade-weighted Japanese yen all fell to historic lows. (9) Market sentiment seems to linearly extrapolate the energy shock to sustained inflation, but historical experience shows that the transmission effect of price shocks is often weaker than expected. (10) Going forward, attention should be paid to whether energy prices can remain high and whether there is short covering in the bond market, which could be the trigger for a correction in currency sentiment.

17:02:44

[Urban President Ursula von der Leyen: EU Plans to Restrict Minors' Use of Social Media] On September 16, local time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in her annual State of the Union address to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, that the EU will further strengthen protections for minors' online use and propose age-based restrictions on minors' use of digital services such as social media. Von der Leyen stated that children under 13 will not be allowed to use social media, and minors under 15 will not be allowed to have personal social media accounts. For minors aged 13 to 15, the EU plans to allow them to use "mini accounts" opened and supervised by their parents or guardians, while restricting account functions and usage time. She also stated that for minors aged 15 to 18, digital platforms will be required to fulfill "safe design" obligations. Von der Leyen emphasized that the EU "should not accept" addictive online features, nor should it accept children's continued exposure to increasingly extreme online content. She stated that the responsibility relationship between platforms and users will change in the future, requiring digital platforms to prove that their services are safe for children, rather than children and parents bearing all the risks. It is reported that the European Commission will publish the specific details of the relevant "Kids Act" on September 17. The relevant measures still need to go through procedures involving EU member states and the European Parliament before they can be finalized. (CCTV)

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