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2026-05-26 Tuesday

2026-05-30

08:47:49

[The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week; hawkish comments under the risk of stagflation may temporarily boost the New Zealand dollar] (1) The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. A survey shows that 28 out of 29 economists hold this expectation; however, due to widespread inflation concerns caused by the war in Iran, slightly more than half of the economists expect at least one rate hike before the end of the year. (2) New Zealand is completely dependent on imported fuel (since the last refinery closed in 2022), and is extremely vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. The first quarter CPI remained stable at 3.1%, which is already higher than the central bank's target range of 1%-3%; the war has further exacerbated inflationary pressures, putting the tightening of monetary policy on the agenda. However, the economy has not yet recovered: the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was only 1.3% year-on-year, and although the unemployment rate fell slightly to 5.3%, it is still close to a 10-year high. (3) New Zealand faces the reality of stagflation, and monetary policy alone is not a panacea; it needs to be combined with targeted fiscal intervention. If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand makes hawkish comments on Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar will likely move closer to the May high of 0.5991 against the US dollar in the short term, but strong resistance levels and a generally weak macroeconomy will limit the upward momentum.

08:30:02

[Iran War Impacts US Agricultural Loans: Soaring Costs, Rising Loan Demand, and Increased Bank Attention] (1) The Middle East conflict has led to soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, posing new challenges for US farmers following Trump's tariffs last year that suppressed agricultural exports. To cope with rising costs, farmers' demand for loans continues to increase. A Chicago Fed survey shows that agricultural loan demand increased year-over-year for the 10th consecutive quarter in the first quarter, while the loan repayment rate index declined for the 10th consecutive quarter. (2) Farmers are cutting back on spending: reducing planting, switching to low-fertilizer crops, or reducing fertilizer use to control costs, but this increases the risk of reduced yields. Banks have noticed that customers are spending more cautiously, with fewer new land purchases and equipment sales. Some banks saw an increase in agricultural loan delinquencies in the first quarter, with loans overdue for more than 90 days increasing, and set aside additional reserves (such as $1.2 million to $1.8 million) for this purpose. (3) Trump's tariffs have already severely damaged agriculture, with the number of farm bankruptcies across the US expected to surge by more than 40% year-over-year by 2025. The rising costs brought about by the Iran war may exacerbate the situation. While government loan guarantees and subsidies provide some protection for banks, they are closely monitoring their clients. Experts point out that soaring diesel prices will drive up costs at every stage, from planting and harvesting to transportation, and small farmers are particularly sensitive to rising costs.

07:30:40

[Amid US-Iran Peace Talks, Netanyahu Announces Increased Crackdown on Hezbollah] 1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that he would intensify the crackdown on Hezbollah in Lebanon. This comes as the United States and Iran intensify negotiations to seek a peace agreement to end the conflict in the Middle East. Previously, Iran had demanded that Lebanon cease its hostilities against Israel as part of a condition for reaching an agreement with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Reports indicate that a potential draft agreement between the US and Iran does indeed include clauses to end the war between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu spoke with US President Trump on Saturday evening regarding this, with Trump reiterating that "Israel has the right to defend its security from threats from all directions, including those from Lebanon." 3. Netanyahu also stated that he and Trump agree that the final agreement with Iran "must completely eliminate the nuclear threat." 4. Monday's military action was triggered by a series of exchanges of fire. Earlier that day, a Hezbollah-launched explosive drone landed in the northern Israeli border town of Metura, hitting a residential house; simultaneously, a rocket aimed at Israel was successfully intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. In response, the Israel Defense Forces launched a large-scale airstrike against Hezbollah infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon. 5. A statement released by the Israeli military on Telegram stated that it had struck more than 70 Hezbollah military targets within Lebanon. Local residents and medical institutions reported that the airstrikes killed at least seven people and injured dozens more. The Israeli military also issued evacuation warnings to about 10 villages and towns in southern Lebanon, urging residents to move to a safe area at least one kilometer away. 6. According to Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency, just hours after Netanyahu announced further airstrikes against Lebanon, a large explosion was heard near the Strait of Hormuz, close to the Iranian coastal cities of Sirik and Jask. As of now, Iranian officials have not provided a clear explanation for the specific cause of the explosion, nor have they directly linked it to the Israeli military operation.

07:06:18

The annual rate of the UK's BRC Store price index for May

Previous : 1% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.20%

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02:57:17

Mexico's current account as a proportion of GDP in the first quarter - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 1.60% Forecast : -

Published Value -3.10%

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