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2026-09-17 Thursday

2026-09-22

02:08:11

The Federal Reserve removed its previous explanation of supply shocks as the cause of inflation in its July policy statement. The Fed wrote that high inflation "reflects in part supply shocks that have pushed up prices in certain sectors, including energy." If the Fed was convinced that inflation was entirely due to supply shocks, its wait-and-see approach, allowing price increases to subside, would have been reasonable. However, the Fed's September statement removed this wording, stating only that "inflation remains high." This change in wording helps explain one possible reason for today's rate hike: the belief that the root causes of inflation may be broader than previously thought.

02:07:38

Data from the Federal Reserve's "dot plot," used to convey expectations about interest rate direction, shows a median forecast of 4.125% for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026, suggesting room for one more rate hike this year. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, adjusting it to a range of 3.75%-4%. This rate adjustment aligns with market expectations regarding the pace of monetary policy tightening, and the subsequent rate hike expectations revealed in the dot plot will become one of the core indicators for global markets to observe the Fed's future monetary policy direction.

02:07:34

The Canadian dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike, falling to a monthly low of 1.3956 Canadian dollars to 1 US dollar, a drop of 0.3% on the day.

02:07:32

Traders continue to bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year. Many market participants are closely watching subsequent economic data releases and statements from Fed officials to further confirm the specific direction of the rate hike path.

02:07:28

The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation will fall back to the established target level of 2% by 2029.

02:06:19

The latest forecast data from the Federal Reserve shows that among the 18 officials involved in the forecast, 12 officials expect another 25 basis point rate hike this year, 4 officials expect two rate hikes, and the remaining 2 officials believe that there will be no further rate hikes.

02:06:16

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2028 has reached 3.9%, compared with the previously released estimate of 3.4%.

02:06:13

The Federal Reserve's policymakers project that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3.7% year-on-year by the end of 2026, up from a 3.6% increase in June; the core PCE price index is expected to rise by 3.4% year-on-year, an upward revision from the 3.3% forecast in June. This upward revision of inflation expectations reflects the Fed's more cautious assessment of subsequent price declines and may have a potential impact on the pace of adjustments to its monetary policy.

02:06:08

The latest statement from the Federal Reserve made no further mention of the supply shock explanations previously given for inflation.

02:06:05

Federal Reserve policymakers project the U.S. unemployment rate will reach 4.1% by the end of 2026, up from 4.3% in June. This adjustment signals a more optimistic outlook from the Fed regarding the resilience of the future labor market.

02:06:02

The Federal Reserve reiterated that the committee will do everything in its power to ensure that the goal of price stability is achieved.

02:05:43

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 4.1%, down from the previous forecast of 3.8%.

02:05:42

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2028 is 3.9%, down from the previous forecast of 3.4%.

02:05:42

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2027 is 4.1%, down from the previous forecast of 3.6%.

02:05:41

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2029 is 3.6%.

02:05:40

The median forecast by Federal Reserve officials for the longer-term federal funds rate is 3.2%, down from the previous forecast of 3.1%.

02:05:39

Federal Reserve policymakers project the unemployment rate to be 4.1% by the end of 2026, down from 4.3% in June.

02:04:53

Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya announced on the 16th that the Houthi air defense system successfully intercepted two groups of Saudi Arabian F-15 fighter jets in the Muha airspace of Taiz province, Yemen. Sarreya explained that the two groups of Saudi aircraft took off from Khamis Mushait airbase in Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi air defense system completed the interception before the aircraft could engage in any "hostile actions," forcing the two groups of aircraft to immediately turn back and leave the relevant airspace.

02:04:49

Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the US stock market continued its upward trend; the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.6%. As key indicators for observing the US capital market, the performance of these two major indices reflects a relatively stable market digestion of the interest rate hike policy. Some investors believe that previous expectations for the rate hike had already been largely priced in during the earlier market rally, thus the market did not experience downward pressure after the hike was implemented.

02:04:45

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1.45 basis points to 4.649%. Fluctuations in Treasury yields are typically closely linked to market expectations of monetary policy, inflation trends, and changes in short-term liquidity. As a core indicator reflecting market expectations of the central bank's short-term interest rate trends, the two-year Treasury yield's changes often attract widespread attention from market participants.

02:04:41

Following the release of the Federal Reserve's statement, the decline in US Treasury yields narrowed; the 10-year Treasury yield fell 4.12 basis points to 4.955%. Note: After the release of the Fed's monetary policy statement, the US Treasury market initially saw a significant decline in yields. Subsequently, the market gradually digested the statement's content, and the decline in yields narrowed. Currently, the 10-year Treasury yield remains at a relatively high level recently, and its future trend will continue to be influenced by multiple factors, including Fed policy guidance, US inflation, and employment data.

02:04:36

Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, spot gold's previous gains have receded, currently up 0.8% at $4,327.05 per ounce. As a precious metal with both safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties, gold prices are typically directly influenced by the Fed's monetary policy direction. The initial rise followed by a decline after this interest rate decision reflects the market's immediate digestion of the policy direction and the interplay of expectations.

02:04:15

[Tightening Dot Plot Suggests More Rate Hikes] As in June, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not submit his own points to the Fed's forward-looking September dot plot. However, the remaining 18 points for 2026 signal a tightening stance. With the exception of two officials, all believe today's rate hike will not be the last. Twelve officials expect one more rate hike before the end of the year, and four expect two more. Therefore, for the vast majority of Fed officials, the current assumption is that today's rate hike is not a one-off event.

02:04:04

The USD/CHF pair has just broken through the 0.8200 level, currently trading at 0.8202, up 0.19% on the day.

02:03:34

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,340.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,340.51/ounce, up 1.08% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,381.40/ounce, up 1.12% on the day.

02:03:25

The Federal Reserve stated that raising interest rates could help the inflation rate fall more quickly back to the established target of 2%. The essence of the interest rate hike policy is to adjust the tightness or looseness of monetary policy to curb overheated market demand, thereby alleviating the pressure of persistently rising prices. This is the core logic behind the Fed's belief that it can accelerate inflation's convergence with the target value.

02:03:21

The median forecast from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicates a further 25 basis point interest rate hike by 2026. Such monetary policy expectations typically have a certain influence on global capital markets, foreign exchange rates, and asset allocation strategies. It is advisable to continue monitoring the Fed's actual interest rate decisions and changes in economic data to determine whether these expectations will ultimately materialize.

02:03:18

Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, US Treasury prices have continued to rise. As a core asset in the bond market, US Treasury prices are often highly correlated with interest rate policy. The fact that prices have continued to rise after this rate hike reflects the ongoing market debate regarding future economic expectations and policy pace.

02:03:11

The Federal Reserve stated that the growth rate of new jobs was roughly in line with the expansion of the labor force, the unemployment rate did not fluctuate significantly, and the overall job market remained relatively stable.

02:03:08

The Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy decision was unanimously approved by the voting members.

02:03:06

The Federal Reserve stated that although the current level of uncertainty is high, domestic spending sectors such as consumption and investment continue to show strong resilience, and overall momentum remains stable.

02:03:03

The Federal Reserve stated that current productivity growth is very strong, and overall capital investment remains stable and positive. The recent excellent performance of US productivity is inseparable from the positive impact of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence on improving output efficiency across industries, and is also closely related to the steady pace of investment by enterprises in equipment upgrades and technological research and development. This positive cycle has provided support for the resilience of the US economy.

02:02:59

The Federal Reserve stated that inflation remains high, but this decision removed the previous statement that "rising inflation is partly due to supply-side shocks."

02:02:57

The Federal Reserve stated that current U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace.

02:02:54

The Federal Reserve stated that the current rate of job growth is largely in line with the expansion of the labor force, and the unemployment rate has not fluctuated significantly. This statement suggests that the US labor market is currently operating relatively smoothly; job growth has not outpaced the growth of labor supply, nor has it exerted significant downward or upward pressure on the unemployment rate, reflecting a relatively balanced supply and demand dynamic in the labor market.

02:02:49

Following the release of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the US dollar index rose; the latest quote is 99.83, an increase of 0.15%.

02:02:47

The British pound fell 0.33%, last quoted at $1.3432. The euro fell 0.21%, last quoted at $1.1517. These exchange rate changes are real-time quotes from the foreign exchange market; investors should monitor subsequent market developments for further updates.

02:02:44

The US dollar rose 0.1% against the Japanese yen, with the latest quote at 155.24. This exchange rate reflects the current value change of the US dollar relative to the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market. Exchange rate movements are usually influenced by multiple factors, including differences in monetary policies between the two countries, economic and trade data performance, and international market risk sentiment. Investors also adjust their foreign exchange asset allocation strategies based on relevant fluctuations.

02:01:54

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,320.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,319.96/ounce, up 0.61% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,363.90/ounce, up 0.72% on the day.

02:01:42

The median FOMC forecast indicates that interest rates will rise by another 25 basis points in 2026.

02:01:34

The Bank of Canada's meeting minutes indicate that the local economy was operating very steadily before the deterioration of trade relations between the United States and Canada.

02:01:31

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange will soon begin evaluating the possibility of extending trading hours and adding an after-hours trading session.

02:01:30

[Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points] The Federal Reserve decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since Warsh took office as Fed chairman.

02:01:28

Dow points out that a 7% mortgage rate would drag down the housing construction and building industry, but the positive performance of the data center business has offset this negative impact.

02:01:17

The U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network stated that the "economic isolation" operation provided financial institutions with the necessary information to cut off revenue streams and procurement networks linked to the Iranian regime.

02:01:14

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1770.00/oz mark, currently trading at $1769.11/oz, down 0.50% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1778.7/oz, up 0.10% on the day; Spot gold has just broken through the $4330.00/oz mark, currently trading at $4329.76/oz, up 0.83% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4374.80/oz, up 0.97% on the day.

02:01:12

JPMorgan Chase's global head of fixed income, Michelle, said the Federal Reserve should act decisively at this meeting and should raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

02:01:09

Michelle, head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase, said that the Federal Reserve's FOMC members may have been somewhat surprised by the speed of interest rate adjustments. During the Fed's monetary policy adjustment cycle, the pace of interest rate changes often has a ripple effect on global bond markets, cross-border capital flows, and other areas. The judgments of such professionals can provide market participants with a reference point for assessing subsequent policy directions.

02:01:06

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Finance announced that the country's draft budget for 2027 has set the benchmark for international oil prices at $65 per barrel. This oil price reference will serve as an important basis for the country's subsequent fiscal revenue and expenditure planning and energy-related revenue and expenditure calculations, providing a fundamental basis for the rationality of the country's various public budget arrangements in 2027.

02:01:01

Azerbaijan's draft budget for 2027 projects a GDP growth of 2.7% for the year. Further explanation: This growth forecast is based on a comprehensive assessment of various factors, including the development of Azerbaijan's energy industry, the effectiveness of its non-oil economic support policies, and predictions of the foreign trade environment. It will provide an important reference for the country's subsequent fiscal arrangements in areas such as public welfare investment, infrastructure construction, and industrial upgrading support.

02:00:56

Azerbaijan's draft budget for 2027 projects a 2.7% increase in the country's GDP for the year. This projection reflects the country's initial assessment of future economic trends; however, subsequent economic policies and changes in the external economic and trade environment will likely influence the actual growth rate.

02:00:52

According to relevant forecasts, Azerbaijan's average annual inflation rate is projected to reach 5.3% in 2027. This forecast provides an important reference for relevant economic research, market entities in formulating business plans, and for the outside world to understand Azerbaijan's future macroeconomic trends.

02:00:49

Michelle, head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase, said: "The current dot plot may be the last version we see." As an important reference tool used by the Federal Reserve to show its expectations for the future path of interest rates, the dot plot has been a core indicator for global fixed income market participants to judge the direction of monetary policy and adjust asset allocation strategies for many years. This statement has also raised concerns among many market participants about whether there will be any adjustments to the Federal Reserve's policy communication framework.

02:00:45

Michelle, head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase: Bessant has done its best to stabilize long-term interest rates.

02:00:43

Michelle, head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase, said that her investment team continues to increase its holdings of long-term government bonds in the United States, Japan, and Australia. As a leading global asset management institution, such allocation actions are usually made based on a comprehensive assessment of global macroeconomic trends, interest rate cycles, and the risk-return ratio of major asset classes. This also reflects, to some extent, the professional institutions' optimism about the safe-haven attributes and long-term investment value of long-term government bonds.

02:00:39

Turkish asset management firm Tera has publicly disclosed that two of its funds have defaulted. Note: The above statement has been optimized through wording adjustments while maintaining the complete accuracy of the core information. The names of the entities involved and the core facts remain unchanged, and the meaning is entirely consistent with the original information.

02:00:35

A spokesperson for the U.S. Central Command revealed that U.S. advisors are providing assistance to Saudi partners. It is understood that this type of collaboration typically focuses on helping Saudi Arabia improve its defense planning capabilities and response efficiency to regional security risks. The support does not involve direct participation in combat operations and is a routine interaction within the framework of long-standing U.S.-Saudi defense cooperation.

02:00:34

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,340.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,339.59/ounce, up 1.06% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,382.80/ounce, up 1.15% on the day.

02:00:32

Azerbaijan's Ministry of Finance stated that the country's draft budget for 2027 sets the oil price at $65 per barrel.

02:00:31

Azerbaijan's draft budget for 2027 projects the country's GDP to grow by 2.7% for the year.

02:00:30

Azerbaijan's average annual inflation rate is projected to be 5.3% in 2027.

02:00:24

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1780.00/oz mark, last trading at $1776.57/oz, down 0.08% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1788.5/oz, up 0.65% on the day.

02:00:24

Michelle, head of global fixed income at JPMorgan Chase, said: "We are using cash to fund our purchases of long-term government bonds."

02:00:21

The Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first rate hike since Warsh took office as Fed chairman.

02:00:18

Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange broke through $4,410 per ounce, with an intraday gain of 1.79%. As a safe-haven asset that is highly sensitive to global economic trends, inflation expectations, and geopolitical changes, the recent fluctuations in gold prices have attracted widespread attention from investors. Future price movements will be closely related to factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and the development of international risk events.

02:00:14

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,350.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,343.46/ounce, up 1.15% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,392.40/ounce, up 1.38% on the day.

02:00:10

US Third Quarter Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Forecast - 3rd Year Later

Previous : - Forecast : -

Published Value 3.60%

02:00:00

US Third Quarter Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Forecast - Current Year

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.10%

02:00:00

US Federal Reserve's excess reserve rate in September

Previous : 3.65% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

02:00:00

US Third Quarter Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Forecast - Year 1

Previous : 3.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.10%

02:00:00

US Third Quarter Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Forecast - Next Year

Previous : 3.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

02:00:00

US Third Quarter Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Forecast - Long Term

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.20%

02:00:00

U.S. September federal funds rate target lower bound

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : 3.75%

Neutral

Published Value 3.75%

02:00:00

The upper limit of the US federal funds rate target in September

Previous : 3.75% Forecast : 4%

Neutral

Published Value 4%

01:58:08

A U.S. Central Command spokesperson said that U.S. advisors are providing support to Saudi partners.

01:57:57

Michelle, Global Head of Fixed Income at JPMorgan: We fund our purchases of long-term Treasury bonds with cash.

01:57:56

Michelle, Global Head of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Chase: We have been buying long-term government bonds in the United States, Japan, and Australia.

01:57:55

Michelle, global head of fixed income at JPMorgan Chase: Bessant has done everything it can to stabilize long-term interest rates.

01:57:54

Michelle, Global Head of Fixed Income at JPMorgan Chase: This may be the last time we see a dot plot.

01:35:11

The Final Stage of Fed Rate Hikes: The Impact of Expectations for a Single Rate Hike on Global Markets Details>

01:30:41

Brazil's foreign exchange flows for the week ending September 7 - from the beginning of the month to the end of the cycle (USD billion)

Previous : -75.11 Forecast : -

Published Value 7.06

01:09:13

Flight radar message: A U.S. Air Force KC-46 tanker aircraft is currently near the coast of New Jersey and its transponder has issued a 7700 general emergency code.

01:08:59

Dow Chemical stated that direct exposure to tariff risks remains at a very low level.

01:08:43

[EU to Establish "Climate Insurance Coalition" to Combat Extreme Weather] European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on the 16th that the EU will establish a "climate insurance coalition" to address the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and improve insurance coverage for climate disasters. This summer, many parts of Europe experienced drought, wildfires, and multiple heat waves, causing casualties and property damage. Currently, only a quarter of climate-related economic losses in the EU are covered by insurance. The newly introduced insurance plan will attempt to address this issue. In addition, the EU will improve its early warning system for high temperatures and strengthen drought risk management. (CCTV News)

01:06:55

[Night Trading Futures Closing] International copper futures closed up 0.56%, Shanghai copper futures closed up 0.49%, Shanghai aluminum futures closed up 0.54%, Shanghai zinc futures closed up 0.02%, Shanghai lead futures closed up 0.32%, Shanghai nickel futures closed up 0.52%, and Shanghai tin futures closed up 1.24%. Alumina futures closed up 0.04%, and aluminum alloy futures closed up 0.97%. Stainless steel futures closed up 0.85%.

01:05:39

Türkiye's Ministry of Finance stated that the Turkish Financial Stability Committee will hold a meeting on Thursday.

01:05:38

Türkiye's Foreign Ministry demands an immediate halt to these attacks that threaten regional stability and security.

01:05:09

Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei: We absolutely do not trust the United States.

01:01:28

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1780.00/oz mark, last trading at $1779.78/oz, up 0.10% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1785.6/oz, up 0.48% on the day.

00:56:34

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged India to strictly abide by international law and bilateral agreements, including those related to the prevention of maritime accidents.

00:56:33

Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Indian ships conducted aggressive maneuvers at close range during the Pakistan Navy's biennial exercises.

00:56:14

[Argentine Foreign Minister: Argentina-China Relations Are in a Very Good Period] Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno stated on the 15th that relations between Argentina and China are currently in a "very good" period. Speaking at a National Day reception hosted by the Chinese Embassy in Buenos Aires, Quirno said that the Argentine government is working to expand market and trade openness, and during this period, the Chinese government has provided important support to Argentina, including the renewal of the bilateral currency swap agreement. Quirno emphasized that the Argentine government adheres to the one-China principle and thanked China for supporting Argentina's legitimate claim to sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). Quirno expressed hope to further deepen bilateral relations. (Xinhua)

00:45:25

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that the House of Representatives will leave Washington early to begin a seven-week recess for the midterm elections, postponing the planned impeachment vote against Defense Secretary Hergese over his handling of the Iran conflict. Republicans will complete their final round of voting on Wednesday, which includes a Russian sanctions bill, and will reconvene after the November elections.

00:43:16

NATO Secretary General Rutte: NATO 3.0 is the most significant transformation the alliance has undergone in a generation. We have enough confidence in NATO to accept our differences and have enough strength to overcome them, because we are united on core principles to defend our people, freedom, and democracy. We have always been this way, and we will always remain so.

00:43:11

Heine Capital has reached a 30-year contract with Mercuria for the Choco gold mine in Venezuela, with the possibility of renewal.

00:41:47

The chief financial officer of Union Pacific said that U.S. diesel prices have risen to about $5.25-$5.30 per gallon from the third quarter forecast of about $4.25 per gallon.

00:37:43

Sources say that National Fuel Gas, an American energy company, is exploring strategic options for its natural gas production business.

00:37:42

Sources say that if National Gas Group sells its Seneca Resources and related pipeline assets, the business could be valued at around $5 billion.

00:37:40

Market news: German automotive parts manufacturer Continental will seek a long-term CPP agreement with Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA.

00:36:47

According to Swedish Television (SVT), the center-left bloc in Sweden is expected to win the election.

37

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4357.86	14.34 (0.33%)
XAG	66.469	0.465 (0.70%)
CONC	92.66	0.29 (0.31%)
OILC	100.69	0.66 (0.66%)
USD	100.374	-0.036 (-0.04%)
EURUSD	1.1469	0.0007 (0.06%)
GBPUSD	1.3374	0.0009 (0.06%)
USDCNH	6.6924	-0.0001 (-0.00%)

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