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2026-07-14 Tuesday

2026-07-19

21:30:11

[Oversold Signals Emerge After Five Consecutive Days of Decline in Gas Prices; Freeport Maintenance Triggers Sentiment; Forward Spreads Compress to Historical Lows] ⑴ US natural gas futures continued their decline on Tuesday, with the most active contract falling about 1% to around $2.87, hitting its lowest level since mid-May, marking its fifth consecutive day of losses. ⑵ Technical indicators show that the near-month contract has been in oversold territory for two consecutive days, the first time since April, suggesting that bearish momentum may be facing a temporary exhaustion, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound. ⑶ The core factors suppressing prices are twofold: a moderate increase in domestic production and a temporary contraction in export demand for feedstock gas due to a six-week maintenance shutdown of the Freeport LNG Texas plant starting July 10. ⑷ On the forward curve, the spread between the March and April 2027 contracts narrowed to a record low of approximately 18 cents. This contract is historically considered a sensitive indicator of winter supply and demand dynamics, and the narrow spread reflects market expectations of ample future supply. (5) Supply-side data shows that the average daily production in the 48 contiguous U.S. states so far in July is approximately 110.2 billion cubic feet, a slight increase from June, but still below the monthly peak reached in December last year. (6) On the demand side, weather models predict that temperatures will remain higher than average in most parts of the country until the end of July, and cooling loads will support gas demand for power generation. Analysts estimate that total domestic demand will remain at a robust level of approximately 110.4 billion cubic feet this week and next. (7) Regarding inventories, market forecasts indicate that natural gas inventories as of the week ending July 10 were about 6.6% higher than the five-year average. The ample storage environment continues to put downward pressure on near-month prices, and Thursday evening's inventory report will be a key catalyst for short-term price direction.

21:28:11

[Gas Prices Fall for Fifth Consecutive Day, Approaching Oversold Levels; Freeport Maintenance Puts Pressure; March-April Spread Hits Record Low] ⑴ US natural gas futures continued to fall by about 1% on Tuesday, hitting a two-month low. The most active contract closed at $2.87 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest closing level since mid-May. ⑵ This marks the fifth consecutive trading day of declines. Technically, the price has been in oversold territory for two consecutive days, the first time since April, indicating a slight weakening of short-term selling pressure. ⑶ The main factors suppressing gas prices include a slight increase in production and a planned maintenance shutdown at the Freeport LNG Texas plant from July 10th to late August, leading to an expected reduction in export flows. ⑷ In the long-term structure, the spread between the March and April 2027 contracts narrowed to a historical low of approximately 18 cents. This low "widowmaker" spread suggests that the market is not anxious about winter supply. (5) On the supply side, the average daily production in the 48 contiguous U.S. states has risen to 110.2 billion cubic feet so far in July, slightly higher than June's level, but still lower than the monthly record high in December last year. (6) On the demand side, weather forecasts indicate that the weather will remain warm until the end of July, supporting demand for gas for power generation. Institutions predict that total domestic demand will remain around 110.4 billion cubic feet this week and next. (7) Regarding inventory, the market expects gas storage levels for the week ending July 10 to be about 6.6% higher than normal. The loose inventory situation continues to suppress spot market sentiment, and the market awaits guidance from Thursday's inventory report.

20:56:11

US Redbook Retail Sales Annual Rate (July 6)

Previous : 11.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 8.20%

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20:52:13

US June CPI reading (seasonally adjusted)

Previous : 333.98 Forecast : -

Published Value 332.57

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20:48:12

US June real weekly earnings annual rate

Previous : -0.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30

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20:48:11

[Caixin Futures: Edible Oils Continue Rebound, Palm Oil Leads Gains, Soybean Meal and Corn Weak, Live Hogs Sell on Rallies] ⑴ Edible Oils: Today, domestic edible oils continued their rebound, with palm oil leading the gains, mainly driven by the coordinated rise in international crude oil and vegetable oils. Overnight, escalating tensions between the US and Iran pushed up crude oil prices, with the Brent crude oil futures contract rising by more than 1%, leading to a 3.10% rebound in US soybean oil, and rapeseed prices also strengthened. Both domestic and international palm oil futures followed suit, with the Malaysian palm oil futures contract rising 1.39% and the domestic September contract rising 1.51%. While the fundamentals of the Malaysian spot market have seen limited improvement, the price of palm oil has become more attractive after the surge in soybean oil prices. Coupled with lower-than-expected rainfall in the main producing areas of Malaysia and Indonesia and expectations of El Niño's impact, the bearish sentiment in the market has eased significantly, and both domestic and international edible oil futures have generally followed the sector's upward trend. Spot market prices for soybean and palm oil remained stable, while Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil prices increased by 140 yuan to 10,480 yuan. (2) Soybean Meal: Improved expectations for US soybean exports coupled with unfavorable weather in producing areas led to higher US soybean futures prices and increased import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures followed suit, but spot prices are still in the accumulation phase, with significant supply pressure. Downstream demand is flat, and there is little enthusiasm for building up inventory. The supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the spot basis remains weak. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing high prices. (3) Corn: The fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are selling according to market conditions. New wheat and imported grains are increasing overall supply pressure. Downstream users mostly maintain a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Under the background of supply-demand imbalance, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. The main strategy is to sell on rallies. (4) Live Pigs: The second breeding season has recently cooled down, and spot prices have weakened. The futures market correction has verified the previous logic. It is recommended to sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, breeding profits may see some recovery, but the space is limited. On a month-on-month basis, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year will decrease month-on-month, but the magnitude will be limited. Coupled with the peak consumption season in the second half of the year and policy guidance to reduce production, breeding profits may see a phased recovery. (5) Eggs: Prices have remained relatively strong recently. Hot weather has lowered egg production rates, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a slight decrease in supply. The peak demand season is from July to September, with smooth sales at the retail level. Demand may further increase in mid-to-late July. Given the weak supply and strong demand, inventories have decreased, and egg prices are likely to remain relatively strong. It is recommended to buy on dips.

20:46:14

[Caixin Futures: Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Drive Short-Term Bullish Trend in Crude Oil, Stronger Performance in Asphalt and Fuel Oil] ⑴ Crude Oil: The US continues bombing Iran, stating that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all countries except Iran but will charge a 20% fee on transiting goods, effectively reimposing a blockade on Iran; Iran maintains the Strait remains closed. The sharp rise in international oil prices has driven up chemical prices. With geopolitical tensions unlikely to ease significantly in the short term, chemical prices may remain bullish. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Renewed geopolitical tensions have driven a rebound in fuel oil prices. The market had previously been restrained in pricing in response to a significant escalation, but with the US imposing a 20% fee on transiting goods through the Strait of Hormuz, short-term supply constraints have increased significantly, suggesting a bullish short-term outlook. ⑶ Asphalt: Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. Increased supply pressure is expected, but industry confidence has not fully recovered. The rebound in international oil prices has provided upward momentum for asphalt prices. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries will increase by 3.9 percentage points to 20.3%. As of July 13, the inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 749,000 tons, an increase of 0.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year; the inventory of 104 social warehouses was 990,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5% compared to July 9 and a decrease of 45.7% year-on-year. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation with low inventory levels. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran are the main trading logic at present, and short-term fluctuations with a slight upward bias are expected. (4) Glass: The overall trading in the Shahe market was average, with some small-plate prices softening. Industry players are cautious and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Last week, float glass inventory was 76 million weight boxes, a decrease of 59,000 weight boxes (-0.08%) week-on-week and an increase of 13.26% year-on-year. Glass technology upgrades will raise industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and low-level fluctuations are expected. (5) Soda Ash: The market trend is stabilizing, with prices fluctuating narrowly at the bottom. Plant operations are stable with no maintenance shutdowns, and daily output remains around 105,000 tons. Downstream demand is generally on an as-needed basis, with weak overall sentiment and insufficient driving force. On Monday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7501 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (+0.18%) from last Thursday; total social inventory remained around 490,000 tons. Futures-spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-20, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-35, Shandong plant delivery 09+10. High supply and weak demand are unlikely to change in the medium term, and low-level fluctuations are expected. (6) Methanol: Today, the spot price in Taicang was 2722 yuan/ton, +75 yuan; the price in the northern Inner Mongolia line was 2197.5 yuan/ton, -42.5 yuan. US-Iran relations have deteriorated again, with the US imposing a 20% fee on goods transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran announcing the strait's re-closure. Geopolitical risks have escalated once more. While the market initially reacted relatively restrained, the expectation of supply contraction is rising as the US closes the strait and increases transit fees, suggesting methanol prices are likely to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias.

20:46:12

[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous Metals Sector Fluctuates, Precious Metals Weak, Lithium Carbonate Rebounds Slightly] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Geopolitical disturbances have reignited inflation concerns. The macroeconomic situation remains unstable, and the market is still betting on one more rate hike each from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year. Supply remains tight at the mine end in the long term, with refined copper supplies remaining low. Demand is mainly driven by immediate needs. Be wary of changes in macroeconomic sentiment, pay attention to tonight's US CPI data and the subsequent Fed interest rate path. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Domestic destocking is progressing rapidly, and the expected commissioning of new overseas aluminum production capacity creates a medium- to long-term supply headwind. With mixed bullish and bearish factors and ongoing macroeconomic disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: The tight global zinc mine supply situation remains unchanged, and persistently low processing fees at home and abroad provide bottom support. However, demand is characterized by a significant off-season. Under these mixed bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑷ Precious Metals: Geopolitical disturbances have reignited inflation concerns, and precious metal prices are weak today. Although the market is no longer overly betting on a hawkish Fed policy after the non-farm payroll data release, and the upside potential for crude oil is limited, the unstable macroeconomic situation and the market's continued betting on one more rate hike each from the ECB and the Bank of England this year suggest that prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the upcoming US CPI data. (5) Lithium Carbonate: The main contract closed up 1.08% at 153,180 yuan/ton, with the market continuing to weaken due to expectations of ample future supply and pressure from warehouse receipts. Domestic production in July saw a slight overall decline, with lithium extraction from salt lakes entering its peak production period. While raw material supply from lithium mica companies has recovered, the increase is limited. Zimbabwean lithium mines have resumed shipments, and the raw material shortage before new materials arrive at ports has led some smelting companies to reduce operating rates. Warehouse receipts increased by 497 tons to 42,903 tons, and the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 500 yuan to 153,950 yuan/ton.

20:46:11

[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels Amidst Raw Material Supply Disruptions and Weak Demand] ⑴ Steel: Steel exports remained resilient, and pessimistic expectations for the real estate market slightly improved, providing some boost to market sentiment. Both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts (October contract) significantly reduced, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. Both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts (October contract) also decreased, with short positions showing a more pronounced reduction, indicating that funds were primarily exiting the market by reducing positions. Technically, the rebar futures contract (October contract) rebounded after testing support around 3050 yuan/ton, with resistance expected around 3116 yuan/ton (corresponding to the off-peak electricity cost line for electric arc furnaces in East China). Valuation-wise, steel mill profits continue to be under pressure, and the market is trading below the off-peak electricity cost line, resulting in relatively low overall valuations. Frequent supply disruptions on the raw material side have raised expectations of cost support, but the weak demand for steel remains unchanged, limiting the upside potential. (2) Iron Ore: BHP's labor negotiations failed; FMG faced restrictions on deliveries of some products, coupled with a seasonal decline in shipments after the June fiscal year's sales push, providing some support to the market in the short term. The September contract saw a rebound after a reduction in open interest; the key level to watch is whether it can effectively break through the 40-day moving average resistance, while the support level has moved up to around 750 yuan/ton. (3) Coking Coal: The pace of production resumption in Shanxi coal mines is slow, Inner Mongolia launched a 100-day special campaign to crack down on illegal mining activities, and the temporary closure of border crossings during the Mongolian Naadam Festival has resulted in numerous short-term supply disruptions and limited room for incremental growth. Pig iron production has declined from its high level, and with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions, downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and coal prices may remain weak and volatile in the short term. The top 20 open positions in the September contract saw an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, with a generally positive change in open interest. The renewed US-Iran conflict has driven a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the increase in energy premiums has provided some sentiment support to the market, but the overall market is in a game of supply contraction and weak demand, with both upward and downward potential constrained. (4) Coking Coal: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, leading to a slight recovery in coking plant profits, with output expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pig iron production has been confirmed to have peaked, with further declines anticipated, and demand-driven momentum gradually weakening. The futures main contract is trading at a significant discount to the spot price, indicating a relatively low valuation. The September contract maintained a narrow range of fluctuation, with support at 1850 yuan/ton remaining a key level to watch, while resistance is expected at the 1900 yuan/ton level. Steel mill losses continued to widen, significantly increasing the difficulty of implementing the tenth round of price increases, and expectations of price reductions intensified, leading to an overall downward shift in market valuations. However, the basis has already largely priced in the expected spot price reductions, limiting further downside potential for futures. (5) Manganese Silicon: The fundamentals remained weak and stable, with manganese ore port inventories continuing to accumulate. Demand remained weak, with plant operating rates remaining low and on-site inventories increasing, driving overall weakness. The September contract closed higher with reduced open interest, with support at the 20-day moving average and resistance at 5940 yuan/ton. Both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with long positions seeing a larger reduction.

20:36:25

[Wash's Tough Stance on "Zero Tolerance," July Rate Hike Remains Uncertain] ⑴ Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh pledged to Congress on Tuesday to resolutely curb inflation, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee "has zero tolerance for persistently high inflation," but did not specify whether this month's meeting would raise interest rates or remain on hold, continuing his consistent stance—the Fed should not reveal its next move in advance. ⑵ His written testimony did not mention price shocks caused by tariffs or geopolitical conflicts, nor did it define the criteria for judging the "persistence" of inflation. Instead, he emphasized that the Fed's goal is singular and its success is promising, stating that if policies are appropriate, the inflation problems of the past five years will become history. ⑶ Warsh believes the labor market is "generally stable," with few layoffs and robust wage growth. Strong increases in labor productivity provide room for economic expansion. He is particularly concerned about investment in artificial intelligence construction, saying it is accelerating and presenting new challenges for policymaking. ⑷ Last year, the Fed cut interest rates three times due to concerns about a weakening labor force, but the economy's resilience exceeded expectations. Instead, it faced price pressures from import tariffs, geopolitical and energy disturbances, and AI construction, with inflation consistently hovering between 3% and 4%. (5) Waller, a board member who pushed for rate cuts last year, clearly stated this week that a rate hike should be on the agenda at the July meeting, bluntly stating that "watching inflation until it melts is not a viable option." Currently, the market's pricing in a rate hike this month remains at a certain level. (6) Warsh only took office as chairman in May of this year. Previously, Trump had exerted unprecedented pressure on the Federal Reserve, including publicly demanding rate cuts and attempting to remove board members. Warsh's unequivocal commitment to inflation is consistent with his stance of defending the central bank's credibility, and also adds more uncertainty to the subsequent policy path.

20:36:20

US June CPI

Previous : 328.83 Forecast : -

Published Value 327.08

Previous

20:36:19

US June Housing CPI Annual Rate - Unadjusted

Previous : 3.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 3.30

Previous

20:36:18

US June Used Car and Truck CPI Annual Rate - Unadjusted

Previous : -2 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.80

Previous

20:36:16

US June New Car CPI YoY - Unadjusted

Previous : 0.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50

Previous

20:35:34

US June Energy CPI Annual Rate - Unadjusted

Previous : 23.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 15.70

Previous

20:35:32

US June Food CPI Annual Rate - Unadjusted

Previous : 3.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 3

Previous

20:35:25

US June core CPI reading, seasonally adjusted

Previous : 336.12 Forecast : -

Published Value 336.07

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