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2026-05-26 Tuesday

2026-05-30

02:56:53

Mexico's current account for the first quarter - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 77.02 Forecast : -93.79

Published Value -158.78

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2026-05-25 Monday

22:26:53

[my country Issues Ethical Guidelines to Regulate Human Genetic Data Research] On May 25, the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Ethical Guidelines for Human Genetic Data Research," aiming to regulate research activities involving human genetic data, effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of research participants and related groups, and promote the healthy development of human genetic data research. The guidelines, compiled by the Life Sciences Ethics Subcommittee of the National Science and Technology Ethics Committee, clarify that human genetic data refers to various types of data obtained from or derived from human biological samples (such as cells, tissues, organs, body fluids, and secretions) that can directly reflect human genetic information. With the rapid development of gene sequencing, omics technologies, and data analysis methods, research related to human genetic data continues to deepen, providing important scientific support for biomedical research, disease prevention, and precision medicine. At the same time, due to the unique attributes of human genetic data, such as its identity-identifying, familial, and intergenerational influence, related scientific and technological activities may raise multiple complex ethical, legal, and social issues. According to the guidelines, scientific and technological activities related to human genetic data should adhere to the basic principles of promoting well-being, respecting autonomy, controlling risks, preventing harm and abuse, and fairness and impartiality. Specifically, the guidelines include: applications aimed at promoting human health, improving disease prevention and treatment, and enhancing public interests and human well-being; applications that may generate significant uncertainties, cross-border diffusion risks, or intergenerational impacts should be approached with caution, requiring thorough risk assessments and stricter risk control measures before implementation; and applications should adhere to the principles of scientific rationality, legitimate purpose, and minimum necessity, while respecting and protecting individual rights. The guidelines also clarify that activities related to human genetic data should strengthen the protection of genetic privacy. Data mining or utilization for the purpose of infringing on privacy is prohibited. When conducting data mining, analysis, and application, the privacy of research participants and related groups must be strictly protected, ensuring that related processing activities are conducted within the scope of informed consent and ethical review approval. Throughout the entire process of scientific research and technological development, corresponding privacy protection measures should be taken according to the sensitivity and risk level of the data. Experts stated that the implementation of these guidelines will effectively guide my country's human genetic data research onto a standardized track, ultimately achieving a dynamic balance between releasing the potential of scientific and technological innovation and fulfilling ethical responsibilities. (Xinhua News Agency)

22:25:54

[Multiple Factors Driving the Surge in Natural Rubber Prices] Natural rubber prices have been rising steadily this year, reaching a near two-year high. Currently, spot prices are between 17,500 and 17,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton from the beginning of 2026, representing a rise of approximately 14%. Futures prices are at 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 11% compared to the beginning of the year. Analysts point out that the reasons for this round of natural rubber price increases are as follows: From the supply side, firstly, there is a structural shortage of natural rubber globally. According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, global demand for natural rubber is projected to climb to 15.602 million tons in 2026, while production is expected to be only 15.324 million tons, resulting in a significant supply-demand gap. Secondly, there are expectations of disruptions from extreme weather. The National Climate Center predicts that El Niño will begin in May this year, and major natural rubber producing areas will face the risk of reduced production due to high temperatures and drought, further exacerbating market concerns about tightening supply. From the demand side, the global automotive industry is expected to experience a moderate recovery in 2026, with continued growth in my country's new energy vehicle production and sales. Demand for tire replacement and exports in Europe and the US is rebounding, coupled with accelerated consumption in emerging markets such as Africa. This stable downstream demand for natural rubber provides solid support for prices. Furthermore, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are pushing up international oil prices, which directly drives up synthetic rubber prices, indirectly supporting natural rubber prices. (CCTV Finance)

22:09:51

[Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations Have Made Progress but Remain Difficult] Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae said on the 25th that negotiations between Iran and the United States have made some progress, but whether an agreement can be reached soon "depends on the United States." He reiterated that any hostile actions against Iran will be met with a response. Baghae made the remarks at a press conference in Tehran that day. He said that Iran and the United States are still exchanging information through Pakistani mediation channels. The recent progress is the result of several weeks of indirect negotiations, and the two sides are close to reaching a consensus on many issues, but the US position is "contradictory and constantly changing," which brings difficulties to the negotiation process. Baghae said that the focus of all parties is still on advancing the text of the memorandum of understanding. He emphasized that the Lebanese issue will be part of the potential memorandum of understanding. Regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, Baghae said that Iran's measures in the strait are in accordance with the framework of international law and are in response to US military actions and potential security threats. He emphasized that Iran is charging relevant vessels "navigation service fees," not "passage fees," and that Iran and Oman are pushing for the development of an agreement on safe passage of vessels to maintain the security of the strait and the marine environment. In this process, "the services provided and environmental protection work require certain financial support." Bagaé also stated that China has played a "constructive and positive role" in promoting the regional ceasefire and negotiation process. He said that China and Russia have maintained a positive stance at relevant UN Security Council meetings, and Iran has recently consulted with Chinese and Russian diplomats on the developments in the situation. (Xinhua)

21:59:57

[US Dollar Declines, Oil Prices Fall Below $100, Hormuz Agreement Expectations Dominate Market Trends] ⑴ On Monday, international oil prices fell below $100 per barrel as the market hoped for an agreement to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US dollar subsequently weakened against major currencies, despite both the US and Iran downplaying the possibility of a short-term agreement. Market liquidity was thin due to holidays in the US, UK, and many parts of Europe. ⑵ The US dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 158.91, the euro rose 0.33% to 1.1641, the pound rose 0.55% to 1.3499, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 0.58% and 0.5% respectively. The US dollar index fell approximately 0.3% to 98.969. ⑶ Strategists at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that if a peace agreement is ultimately reached, the US dollar will weaken for a period, but "once the shock subsides," the dollar will strengthen again due to the better fundamentals of the US compared to other major currencies. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, the US stance was inconsistent over the weekend: on Saturday, it stated that the memorandum had been "basically agreed upon," while on Sunday, it stated that the blockade of Iranian ships would be "fully effective" until the agreement was signed. Pepperstone's research director stated that the market has become accustomed to patience regarding substantial breakthroughs, but generally believes the baseline scenario for an agreement remains solid. If Brent crude oil falls towards $90, a decline in short-term inflation expectations would revitalize risk assets. The market is currently focused on Tuesday's US ADP employment report and Thursday's Eurozone confidence survey.

21:58:44

[India Plans Major Overhaul of Industrial Production Index: Adding Rare Earths, Water Supply, and Other Utilities; Adopting a Chain-Linked Approach; New Version to be Released on June 1] ⑴ The Indian government announced on Monday a major revision to its Industrial Production Index to more accurately capture the country's evolving industrial structure. The new series will update the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, aligning it with other macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, CPI, and WPI. ⑵ The Technical Advisory Committee proposed expanding the index's scope to include minor minerals, rare earth minerals, gas supply, water supply, wastewater treatment, and waste management activities. This is one of the most extensive revisions to the index in recent years. The revised basket will contain 1,042 products, mapped to 463 project groups, and will adopt the NIC-2025 classification system. ⑶ Key improvements include: introducing a chain-linked industrial production index in addition to the fixed base period index; addressing the "creative destruction" problem of businesses and products during production line changes by replacing and supplementing plants; and recommending the adoption of a producer price index-based deflator instead of a wholesale price index deflator once the producer price index becomes available. (4) From a trading logic perspective, the committee recommends replacing factories that have been permanently closed or have undergone significant changes to their production lines with comparable operating units, and adding newly commissioned large factories throughout the index's lifecycle. The method for connecting the old and new series will be changed from an arithmetic average to a geometric average to provide smoother and more statistically consistent results. The new index will be first released on June 1, 2026, providing data from April 2023 onwards, including preliminary estimates for April 2026.

21:48:10

[Inflation Data and Tech Earnings Reports: Market Swings Between Rate Hike Fears and Geopolitical Easing] ⑴ US stocks experienced a shortened trading week due to the holidays, with investors weighing inflation concerns, Federal Reserve uncertainty, and a series of earnings reports from major tech companies. Thursday's core PCE inflation report was in focus, with economists expecting an annualized reading of 3.3%, a level that could keep policymakers cautious. ⑵ Deutsche Bank noted that investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of future rate hikes rather than cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that inflation is once again a key driver of policy and hinted that the Fed may need to abandon its accommodative stance. This shift has pushed up US Treasury yields and dragged down interest rate-sensitive sectors, especially growth stocks. ⑶ From a trading psychology perspective, analysts at deVere Group stated that if energy prices continue to fall, lower yields coupled with softer energy prices will provide support for the stock market. "Tech stocks are particularly likely to benefit, as lower bond yields will improve the valuations of growth companies." This week, Dell, Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Costco, and Snowflake will release their earnings reports. Dell's update on AI infrastructure demand following Nvidia's earnings report will be closely watched. (4) Regarding economic data, Wells Fargo expects the April PCE deflator to rise 0.4%, indicating that while consumer spending remains resilient, it will show more pressure from inflation and high borrowing costs. New home sales and initial jobless claims data will provide clues as to whether higher interest rates are beginning to more significantly slow economic activity. Overall, the market remains caught between persistent inflation risks and expectations that easing geopolitical tensions could support a new round of risk aversion.

21:41:10

[Malaysia Affected by Middle East Conflict: Unemployment Up 21% in April, Fertilizer Prices Surge 45.5%, Agricultural Exports Expected to Decline 13.5%] ⑴ Malaysia's Minister of Economic Affairs stated on Monday that the country is feeling the economic ripple effects of the Middle East conflict—rising energy prices, increased logistics costs, and supply chain disruptions are impacting multiple industries. ⑵ Data shows that 7,057 workers lost their jobs in April, a 21% increase from March, and the logistics and aviation industries are also facing increasing pressure. Agricultural commodity producers are also under pressure, with shipping costs on Middle East routes surging by 50% to 80%, fertilizer prices rising by as much as 45.5%, and agricultural pesticides increasing by 37.5%. ⑶ Plantation and machinery operating costs rose by 10% to 30%, rubber replanting costs increased by 46% to 55%, and palm oil and chemical production costs rose by up to 30%. Agricultural trade volume in the first quarter declined by 14.7% due to weaker exports of cocoa, rubber, palm oil, pepper, and timber products. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, the Minister of Economic Affairs predicts that agricultural exports will decline by 13.48% overall in 2026, while imports are expected to decline by 3.28%. This data reflects that the indirect impact of the Middle East conflict on Southeast Asian open economies is accelerating through three channels: shipping, energy, and fertilizers. As a major global supplier of palm oil and rubber, Malaysia's rising supply-side costs may further push up prices of downstream consumer goods.

21:33:54

[Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, Meets with De Gallo, Governor of the Bank of France] On May 25, 2026, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, met with De Gallo, Governor of the Bank of France. The two sides exchanged views on the global and Chinese economic situation, Sino-French and Sino-European economic and financial cooperation, and global economic and financial governance. Pan Gongsheng stated that in recent years, under the strategic guidance of the heads of state of China and France, Sino-French relations and cooperation have made positive progress. Currently, the global economy faces multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts. China and France, and China and Europe, should strengthen strategic communication, jointly uphold multilateralism, and work together to build a more fair, just, inclusive, and resilient global financial governance system. China is firmly committed to opening up its financial sector and welcomes financial institutions from all countries, including France, to deepen their presence in the Chinese market. The People's Bank of China is willing to continue deepening exchanges and cooperation with the Bank of France to continuously elevate Sino-French and Sino-European financial cooperation to new heights. De Gallo stated that deepening Sino-French and Sino-European cooperation is of great significance in the current complex and volatile international situation. The Bank of France attaches great importance to its cooperative relationship with the People's Bank of China and is willing to further strengthen communication and coordination to jointly promote the improvement of global economic and financial governance. Following the meeting, De Gallo delivered an academic lecture at the People's Bank of China and exchanged views with staff. Xuan Changneng, Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the meeting and chaired the lecture. Yi Gang, President of the China Finance Society, also attended the lecture (People's Bank of China).

21:22:44

[Israel's Central Bank Cuts Rates for Third Time This Year to 3.75%, Shekel Hits 33-Year High to Suppress Inflation] ⑴ The Bank of Israel cut its benchmark interest rate from 4% to 3.75% on Monday, marking its third rate cut in six months. The bank had previously cut rates in November and January, but held them steady in subsequent decisions due to the conflict with Iran and concerns about supply-driven inflation. ⑵ The annualized inflation rate stabilized at 1.9% in April, within the target range of 1% to 3%, but policymakers remain vigilant about the potential for geopolitical developments and their impact on economic activity, energy prices, and higher national spending to trigger renewed price pressures. ⑶ The Bank of Israel stated that the shekel's exchange rate against the dollar is at a 33-year high, which helps to curb inflation. Exporters have called for the central bank to cut rates or intervene in the foreign exchange market. The ceasefire agreement reached on April 8, following the US-Israel airstrikes on Iran on February 28, remains fragile. ⑷ From a trading psychology perspective, the central bank's statement noted that "significant geopolitical uncertainty remains," and that the war with Iran "has impacted real economic activity, and the latest data shows a recovery." The Monetary Policy Committee's policy focuses on price stability, supporting economic activity, and market stability. The future path of interest rates will be determined based on inflation developments, economic activity, geopolitical uncertainties, and fiscal developments. Central bank staff previously predicted two more rate cuts by early 2027, bringing the policy rate down to 3.5%.

21:20:31

[US Treasury Yields Surpass 5.2%, Triggering Reminiscences of the 2007 Crisis; Bond Vigilantes Return] ⑴ In a research report titled "Nothing to Watch... Just a Bond Market Crash," Albert Edwards, an analyst at Societe Generale, points out that the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond has surpassed 5.2%, matching the level seen in June 2007—a few months before the global financial crisis. He believes the market is overly complacent about high borrowing costs, a sentiment pattern similar to that before past economic turmoil. ⑵ Economist Ed Yardeni notes that the "bond vigilantes"—fixed-income investors who express dissatisfaction with fiscal or monetary policy by selling government securities—have returned. He predicts this will force the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance at its June policy meeting and potentially raise interest rates in July, a dramatic reversal from the previously widely expected rate cuts. ⑶ Data shows that the annualized inflation rate accelerated to 3.8% in April, the fastest pace since May 2023. The futures market has seen a significant correction, with investors now believing there is a 49% probability that the federal funds rate will rise by the end of 2026, while the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year has dropped to only 2%. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, Edwards also singled out Japan as a new source of financial tension: the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds has climbed to its highest level since 1996, and the Bank of Japan is exiting its years-long ultra-loose monetary policy, which is tightening global financial conditions. He also pointed out that US-Iran tensions have pushed up energy costs and maintained inflationary pressures. Although Yardeni believes that the stock market bull run is not yet facing imminent danger and can be seen as an accumulation opportunity, both agree that the bond market is sending warning signals that deserve serious attention.

21:15:16

[The euro opened at 68.26 against the Dominican peso, up 0.44% for the week but down 4.5% year-over-year; short-term volatility significantly lower than the benchmark] ⑴ During Monday's opening trading session, the euro averaged 68.26 against the Dominican peso, down 0.33% from the previous day's closing price of 68.49. The euro rose 0.44% over the past week, but is still down 4.5% year-over-year. ⑵ The current exchange rate volatility is 5.21%, well below the benchmark volatility level of 12.15%, indicating that the foreign exchange market has entered a period of relative stability. ⑶ A UBS financial services report points out that the Dominican Republic is heading into 2026 with an encouraging economic and political outlook, with real GDP growth expected to accelerate to around 4%, driven by factors including interest rate cuts and a more favorable international environment. Political stability and pro-market policies are expected to continue to support the country's economic vitality. (4) From a transactional perspective, the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic projects the exchange rate to reach approximately 66.35 pesos in September 2026 and approximately 69.15 pesos a year later, exhibiting a sustained, moderate depreciation trend. Stable service exports and remittance surpluses will offset the deficits in the income and goods trade accounts. The current account deficit is projected to hover between 2% and 2.5% of GDP by the end of 2025 and 2026, while net foreign direct investment will account for approximately 3.5% to 4.0% of GDP, sufficient to cover the external gap.

21:14:12

[Preliminary Agreement Emerges Between the US and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz: 60-Day Ceasefire to Lift Navigation Barrier, Nuclear Issue Remains to be Addressed] ⑴ According to a memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran, the two sides agreed to extend the current ceasefire for 60 days. During this period, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, allowing Iran to freely sell oil (i.e., lifting the maritime blockade), while negotiations will begin on measures to limit Iran's nuclear program. ⑵ Senior White House officials stated that the US has not yet committed to immediately unfreezing Iranian assets or lifting sanctions, which is a prerequisite for Iran to maintain the agreement. The main disagreement between the two sides centers on the handling of approximately 400 kilograms of enriched uranium: the US demands a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran insists on a shorter period and that uranium enrichment must be carried out within its own territory and subject to regional rather than international supervision. ⑶ Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has convened his security cabinet to assess the situation, fearing that the agreement will alleviate economic and military pressure on the Iranian regime at a time of vulnerability, while failing to resolve the Hezbollah issue in Lebanon. Gulf states are also uneasy, worried that Iran will use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to become stronger than before the war. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, oil market analysts caution that "this seems like a major breakthrough, but similar clauses have previously broken down due to different interpretations." The market remains cautious about this framework agreement—Trump has stated that he is not in a hurry to finalize the agreement, the maritime blockade will continue until it is signed and certified, and all thorny issues such as the nuclear program have been postponed to subsequent negotiations. This phased strategy is similar to the Gaza ceasefire model, which has not yet resolved its core disputes seven months later.

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