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2026-11-03 Tuesday

2026-11-07

17:34:12

[Fed Survey Shows Weak Business Loan Demand Last Quarter] ⑴ A survey released by the Federal Reserve on Monday showed that business loan demand weakened for the first time in over a year last quarter, although some borrowers sought cheaper financing options. ⑵ Banks cited reduced customer investment in plant or equipment and a shift in borrowing towards more attractive bank or non-bank financing sources as key reasons for the weakening demand. ⑶ The last survey showed softening demand for commercial loans in the second quarter of 2025, but at that time banks did not cite borrowers shifting to other lenders as a reason. ⑷ A government report last week showed that business equipment spending grew at an annualized rate of 20.9% last quarter, the largest single-quarter contribution to GDP growth in six years. ⑸ Surveyed banks indicated that standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and medium-sized enterprises remained largely unchanged, but standards for small businesses tightened. ⑹ Banks said they tightened requirements for higher-risk loans, but most terms for commercial and industrial loans were "relaxed or remained largely unchanged." (7) Analysts at Oxford Economics believe that the Fed survey's failure to show banks continuing to tighten lending standards to large corporations is encouraging. (8) They write that this is yet another reason to bet on expanding corporate investment beyond artificial intelligence. (9) This report was one of the data available to Fed policymakers at their October 27-28 meeting when they decided to keep short-term borrowing costs unchanged. (10) The most frequently cited reasons for banks indicating they were tightening commercial lending standards were a poorer or more uncertain economic outlook and worsening industry-specific problems. (11) Banks also reported a significant weakening in demand for residential real estate loans and a decline in auto loan demand, but credit card borrowing demand saw its strongest growth in four years.

17:34:03

[San Francisco Fed Research: El Niño May Push Up US Inflation and Boost Employment] ⑴ A new economics newsletter from the San Francisco Federal Reserve points out that a strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean could push up US prices and boost employment next year. ⑵ Historically, El Niño has pushed up core service and food prices; the current event is classified as "very strong." ⑶ The inflation risk facing the US largely depends on whether El Niño will turn into La Niña next year, which has the opposite effect. ⑷ Researchers predict that if this transition occurs, further price pressures could add about 1 percentage point to personal consumption expenditure inflation in 2027. ⑸ The authors estimate that the current El Niño may have already made the personal consumption expenditure price level from April to July about 0.3 percentage points higher than usual. ⑹ They expect this initial increase to subside by the end of this year. ⑺ The authors state that early price pressures in the El Niño cycle first impact consumers' wallets, while the impact on the labor market will take longer to materialize. (8) Analysis by the San Francisco Fed found that total non-farm payrolls are typically unaffected in the first year of an El Niño event, but expand significantly in the second year. (9) Unlike inflation forecasts that depend on the occurrence of La Niña, the expectation of a hiring surge and a decline in the unemployment rate in 2027 is based on a pattern that has consistently occurred in past El Niño cycles. (10) The authors' data sample includes only 22 El Niño events since the 1950s, of which only four were "very strong," while the current one is expected to be stronger than any in historical data. (11) The authors write that these results are not predictions, but rather point to a significant risk of rising inflation next year, and note that El Niño adds uncertainty to the overall outlook for the U.S. economy.

17:25:03

[Eurogroup Initiates Nomination Process for ECB President] ⑴ Eurozone governments have been invited to submit their nominations for Christine Lagarde's successor by Friday. ⑵ Eurogroup President Pierakakis urged member states to submit their nominations by November 6. ⑶ The Eurogroup, comprised of finance ministers from the 21 Eurozone countries, will assess the nominations at its meeting on November 9. ⑷ Current nominees include former Bank of Spain governor and current head of the Bank for International Settlements, Decos, and former Dutch central bank governor, Knott. ⑸ Lagarde has stated she will step down on February 7, approximately nine months earlier than her original term, to allow her to speak on issues beyond monetary policy. ⑹ The search for a successor is part of the replacement of three of the six seats on the ECB's Executive Board. ⑺ With both Markets Director Schnabel and Chief Economist Lane nearing the end of their terms, the succession process has begun. (8) Schnabel will step down in early January, about a year before his eight-year term ends, and the Eurogroup has extended the application deadline to November 27. (9) Lane's term expires in May. (10) European leaders will meet in Brussels on November 26-27, and progress is expected on appointments, including Lagarde's successor. (11) Decos and Nott have been campaigning in the region in recent months to garner the support of national governments. (12) The final outcome may depend on the support of German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron.

16:33:51

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized rate of fixed capital expenditure in the third quarter.

Previous : 4.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.30%

Previous

16:33:46

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized government consumption expenditure rate for the third quarter.

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.70%

Previous

16:33:45

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized private consumption expenditure rate for the third quarter.

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

16:33:44

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized service import rate for the third quarter.

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.60%

Previous

16:33:43

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized merchandise import rate for the third quarter.

Previous : 29.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 29.90%

Previous

16:33:41

Hong Kong's preliminary annualized service exports for the third quarter.

Previous : 3.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

Previous

16:32:56

Hong Kong retail sales volume year-on-year in September

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

Previous

16:30:34

Hong Kong's preliminary GDP growth rate for the third quarter.

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : 0.80%

Published Value 1.90%

Previous

16:30:33

Hong Kong's preliminary GDP annual rate for the third quarter

Previous : 4.30% Forecast : 3.70%

Published Value 5.20%

Previous

16:30:18

Hong Kong retail sales year-on-year growth in September

Previous : 5.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.40%

Previous

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