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2025-09-15 Monday

2025-09-19

22:01:18

Google's parent company Alphabet's stock price rose 3.2% to $248.5, and its market value exceeded $3 trillion for the first time.

22:00:32

[Peru's Economic "Surprise": July Growth Exceeds Expectations, with Multiple Sectors Showing Progress] ⑴ Data released by the Peruvian National Statistics Institute show that the country's economy grew by 3.41% year-on-year in July, exceeding the 3% growth consensus forecast by market analysts. ⑵ This growth was driven by broad-based expansion across most economic sectors, indicating a positive trend in overall economic activity. ⑶ Specifically, mining and fishing achieved significant growth of 13.2% and 34.9%, respectively, in July, becoming key drivers of economic expansion. ⑷ Meanwhile, the construction sector recorded a 2.7% increase, while manufacturing saw a 1.2% increase. ⑸ While some analysts note that growth in some sectors may be affected by fluctuations in global commodity prices, overall, the July data provides strong evidence of the resilience of the Peruvian economy. ⑹ Previously, the Central Bank of Peru had raised its 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.4%, and the July data released today lays a solid foundation for achieving this target.

22:00:10

The Nasdaq index just broke through the 22,300.00 mark and was last at 22,300.03, up 0.72% on the day.

21:59:53

[Irish Bank Issues Large Green Bond, Receives Strong Market Response] ⑴ Allied Irish Banks (Permanent TSB) successfully issued a €300 million Tier 2 green bond with a 10.25-year term and a non-callable 5.25-year maturity. The coupon rate was 3.915%. ⑵ The bond issuance was enthusiastically received by the market, with the order book reaching €3.45 billion, far exceeding the issue size. ⑶ The initial indicative price was in the range of MS+190 basis points, and the final price was MS+155 basis points, demonstrating strong investor demand for the bond. ⑷ This issuance is a significant development in the EU green bond market. The proceeds will be used specifically to finance or refinance eligible green projects, further promoting sustainable development. ⑸ The bond received a Baa3 rating from Moody's and will be listed on the Dublin Stock Exchange. ⑹ The success of this issuance reflects the market's continued interest in sustainable investment products and recognition of Allied Irish Banks' financial soundness.

21:59:43

[Canada's Housing Market Sees a "Stable Decline": A Sales Recovery Fails to Mask Falling Prices, Intensifying the Supply-Demand Gap in the Housing Market] (1) Existing home sales in Canada rose 1.1% month-over-month in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, but overall activity remains below the long-term historical average. (2) Sales fell nearly 2% year-over-year, indicating the market recovery remains weak. (3) The Canadian Real Estate Association's benchmark price index fell 0.1% in August, down 3.5% year-over-year, and now over 19% below its peak in March 2022. (4) Analysts believe the sales recovery may be partly due to price reductions, but also to buyers returning to the market after the turbulent spring, when Trump's tariff rhetoric sparked uncertainty in financial markets. (5) The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 51.2% in August, the first decline in five months, indicating a more favorable market for buyers and room for negotiation. (6) The inventory of homes available for sale increased by 2.6% in August, indicating a relatively ample supply. ⑺Analysis indicates that sales have gradually recovered to the lower end of pre-pandemic normal levels, that inventories, while increasing, are not oversaturated, and that prices remain largely flat. ⑻However, Canada's overall economy is experiencing a tariff-induced downturn, with output falling 1.6% annualized in the second quarter and unemployment rising to 7.1%, the highest level in nine years (excluding the pandemic period). ⑼Housing affordability remains severe in Canada, with the proportion of after-tax income going toward housing-related bills reaching its highest point since 1990. ⑽Year-on-year price declines were particularly pronounced in Southern Ontario, a manufacturing hub particularly affected by trade uncertainty.

21:59:40

Wahaha spot price plummets to -1.26, signaling another bottleneck for US gas Details>

21:58:02

[A "Smooth Achievement" in Carbon Emissions? The Truth Behind the Data and Future Challenges] ⑴ Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that per capita CO2 emissions in every U.S. state declined from 2005 to 2023. ⑵ Over the same period, total energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States fell by 20%, while the population grew by 14%, resulting in a 30% reduction in per capita emissions. ⑶ This significant decrease is primarily due to a reduction in coal combustion in the power sector. ⑷ Specifically, increases in natural gas power generation and non-CO2-emitting power generation such as wind and solar effectively offset the decline in coal-fired power generation. ⑸ However, the EIA forecasts a 1% increase in total U.S. CO2 emissions in 2025. ⑹ This increase is partially due to recent increases in fossil fuel consumption in crude oil production and growth in power generation. ⑺ Despite the significant decline in per capita emissions, total emissions face the risk of a rebound in 2025, demonstrating that controlling total emissions requires continued attention during the energy transition.

21:57:15

ECB board member Kocher: The ECB's current interest rate is appropriate and should remain unchanged. Inflation risks are now more balanced.

21:56:52

ECB board member Kocher advises the ECB to remain cautious and not rush to change policy

21:56:48

British Prime Minister Starmer: Paul Ovenden, director of strategic affairs at 10 Downing Street, will leave

21:56:13

US crude oil is expected to break through the volatility! The five-wave structure has an explanation Details>

21:52:35

[Natural Gas Roller Coaster: Price Fluctuations Driven by Supply and Demand] ⑴ US natural gas futures prices reclaimed $2.982/MMBtu on Monday, recovering from last week's break below $3. ⑵ Analysts suggest that natural gas prices are likely to continue to rise if pipeline transportation restrictions continue to constrain supply and October weather factors support demand. ⑶ Strong and growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is expected to support higher New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) natural gas futures prices in late fall and early winter. ⑷ In the short term, potential mild October weather, seasonal demand weakening in the final stages of hurricane season, or unexpected LNG facility outages remain potential downside risks. ⑸ Data indicates that LNG export demand is supporting Nymex futures prices and could drive price increases in the coming months. ⑹ Despite short-term uncertainties, overall supply constraints and growing structural demand (such as LNG exports) provide a floor for natural gas prices.

21:51:46

[A Critical Moment for the Fed to Set the Tone: Euro Bulls Gamble on Powell] ⑴ Market analysts believe that the short-term direction of the euro against the dollar will be highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Fed policy meeting. ⑵ Recent data shows that net long euro positions have climbed to their highest level since early July, indicating that investors are optimistic about the euro's outlook and are pinning their hopes on a dovish Fed policy shift. ⑶ However, this optimism may face a test. If the Fed's stance is less dovish than market expectations, it could lead to a rebound in US Treasury yields, weakening the euro's relative appeal and putting downward pressure on the euro against the dollar. ⑷ At that time, the market may need to reprice its expectations for a Fed rate cut, which would widen the interest rate differential, highlighting the dollar's yield advantage and posing a challenge to the euro. ⑸ Furthermore, if Fed Chairman Powell fails to convey sufficiently dovish signals at his press conference, previously accumulated euro long positions may face profit-taking pressure, exacerbating short-term selling momentum. ⑹ On the contrary, if the Fed sends a more dovish signal than expected, it may trigger a significant decline in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, thereby opening up a broader upside space for the euro against the US dollar and possibly pushing it back above the 1.20 mark.

21:49:56

Brazil's central and southern regions are expected to plant 17% of their first corn crop in 2025/26 (as of Thursday).

21:49:49

As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean plantings for the 2025/26 marketing year were estimated at 0.12% of the projected area.

21:49:26

ECB board member Kocher: It is recommended that the ECB remain cautious and not rush to change policy. : The ECB's current interest rate is appropriate and should remain unchanged. Inflation risks are now more balanced.

21:46:26

[10-Year US Treasury Yield Falls Below 4%: Weak Data and Pre-Central Bank Decision Game] ⑴ US Treasury yields fell across the board in early trading on Monday (Beijing Time), with the 10-year yield retreating to around 4.041%, having previously closed at 4.058% on Friday. ⑵ The 2-year yield also declined, closing at 3.528%, down from Friday's close of 3.555%. ⑶ The weak New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September Empire State Manufacturing Survey) unexpectedly turned negative, becoming the primary factor holding down yields in the short term. ⑷ Market trading was relatively light, partly due to the Asian market holiday impacting trading volume. ⑸ Traders are closely watching this week's US retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, particularly the updated dot plot, as these factors will have a significant impact on the direction of the bond market. ⑹ Despite recent yield fluctuations, in the long term, the downward trend in yields largely reflects easing inflation concerns and expectations of possible future rate cuts. ⑺ While waiting for more economic signals, investors are weighing the possibilities of different economic scenarios and preparing for key events this week.

21:45:35

[Market "Ice and Fire": Hidden Concerns Amidst the Divergence Between Natural Gas Supply and Demand] ⑴ US natural gas futures prices were essentially flat on Monday, closing at $2.942 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), supporting market expectations of stable demand over the next two weeks. ⑵ In stark contrast, spot natural gas prices at the Wahah hub in West Texas turned negative due to supply constraints caused by pipeline maintenance and other factors. ⑶ Institutional data shows that average natural gas production in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in September, down from the monthly all-time high of 108.3 Bcf/d in August. ⑷ Despite the production decline, record production earlier this year has left natural gas inventories exceptionally high, with reserves currently approximately 5.8% above the five-year average. ⑸ On the demand side, weather forecasts indicate that much of the United States will experience warmer-than-average temperatures, which will stimulate air conditioning use and, in turn, increase demand for gas-fired power generation. (6) The agency predicts that total U.S. natural gas demand will increase slightly from 102.5 billion cubic feet per day to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day in the coming week. (7) In addition, agency data shows that the average flow of natural gas to eight major U.S. liquefied natural gas export facilities fell to 15.6 billion cubic feet per day in September, down from 15.8 billion cubic feet per day in August and lower than the monthly record of 16.0 billion cubic feet per day set in April.

21:45:21

A chart: Baltic Index extends gains on rising capesize rates Details>

21:44:46

[Treasury Bond Market Game: Trading Psychology and Risk Signals in the Battle for the 4% Mark] (1) Yesterday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield returned above 4%, creating a volatile market with prices oscillating fiercely around the key psychological mark. The yield of approximately 4.04% suggests that investors are cautious about purchasing long-term US Treasuries at this year's relatively low yield level. This hesitation stems from dual market concerns about the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and whether inflation can be effectively contained. (2) Recently, a clear divergence has emerged in the $29 trillion Treasury bond market. Some investors worry that a weak labor market will force the Federal Reserve to drastically cut interest rates, while others believe the fight against inflation is not over. This divergence is directly reflected in trading strategies. Despite year-round volatility in the bond market, short-term Treasury yields have recently fallen significantly more than long-term Treasury yields. (3) A popular trade in the market has been betting on a "steepening" yield curve, meaning a widening gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields. Not long ago, the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds reached 65 basis points, second only to the 67 basis points reached in April when Trump's tariff remarks sparked market concerns. However, the recent steepening of the yield curve has slowed, suggesting the possibility of a "pain trade" for investors. (4) Notably, some believe rising inflation, the massive US fiscal deficit, and the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric on the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to further steepening of the yield curve. If market confidence in the Fed falters, this could put pressure on the US dollar and push up US Treasury yields. (5) Despite recent signs of labor market weakness, expectations of a "soft landing" remain. Some institutions predict that the Fed will implement a series of "accommodative rate cuts" rather than drastically cutting rates due to recessionary risks. The stock market's repeated record highs also reflect this optimism, but some analysts point out that the actual impact of tariffs on inflation and the speed of their transmission remain unclear.

21:42:57

The Polish Ministry of Finance said that as of the end of August, the balance of Poland's foreign exchange accounts was equivalent to 13.07 billion euros.

21:42:02

[Crude Oil Supply Alarms Sound, Oil Price Bull-Bear Game Intensifies] ⑴ The Ukrainian attack on Russian oil facilities has heightened market concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, directly pushing up US crude oil futures prices in early trading. ⑵ Market analysts point out that supply-side risks are a key factor supporting WTI crude oil above $61 per barrel, providing some basis for bullish sentiment. ⑶ However, chart signals have yet to clearly indicate the formation of an upward trend, indicating that potential demand-side risks, such as trade instability, continue to weigh on market sentiment. ⑷ Of particular concern is OPEC's recent move to gradually withdraw its production cuts, which may indicate a slowdown in global demand, casting a shadow over the continued rise in oil prices.

21:40:58

There is a sudden vacuum in U.S. Treasury bond liquidity, and the U.S. dollar is approaching the critical point of 97.24, which may usher in a drastic change! Details>

21:38:08

Spot gold just broke through the $3,660.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,660.27/ounce, up 0.47% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,697.70/ounce, up 0.31% on the day.

21:30:27

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 45,900.00 mark and was last at 45,908.45, up 0.16% on the day.

21:29:27

Brent crude oil futures rose 1.01% to $67.51 per barrel

21:28:48

Nymex US crude oil futures rose 1.00% to $63.32 per barrel

21:28:08

China's port inventory of imported soybeans as of September 15

Previous : 663.57 Forecast : -

Published Value 670.44

21:27:47

Monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada in August

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

21:26:26

September 15th US market update support and resistance: 18 varieties of support and resistance (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, crude oil, natural gas, copper and ten major currency pairs) Details>

21:22:58

Canada's wholesale sales growth hit a six-month high in July. (1) Canada's wholesale sales rose 1.2% month-over-month to CAD$86 billion in July 2025, the fastest growth since January. The previous figure was revised upward to 1.0%, slightly below market expectations of 1.3%. (2) Four of the seven sub-sectors saw growth, accounting for approximately three-quarters of total wholesale trade. (3) The motor vehicle and parts sub-sector grew 5.1% to CAD$15.4 billion (motor vehicle sales increased 5.9%), and the building materials supply sub-sector grew 2.7% to CAD$12.1 billion (lumber, hardware, and other building materials increased 2.7%), driving the growth. (4) The miscellaneous sub-sector fell 1.5% to CAD$10.7 billion, partially offsetting the overall increase. (5) Wholesale sales increased in seven provinces, led by Ontario (+1.5% to CAD$44.7 billion) and Alberta (+2.6% to CAD$9.5 billion).

21:22:44

[US Dollar Index Falls to 97.3, Hitting a New Low Since July] ⑴ The US dollar index fell to 97.3 on Monday, its lowest level since late July, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision. ⑵ The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, with a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut. Recent data suggests a significant cooling in the labor market. ⑶ Investors will focus on the Fed's updated macroeconomic forecasts (particularly the interest rate path), with a general expectation that the easing cycle will continue until the end of the year. ⑷ The FOMC vote split will be closely monitored; a three-way split would be the first since 2019. ⑸ Traders are also focused on whether Stephane Milan will be confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board in time for the meeting. ⑹ In addition to the Fed, the Bank of Canada is also expected to cut interest rates this week, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are likely to maintain policy unchanged. ⑺ The US dollar generally declined against the British pound, euro, and yen.

21:21:19

[US Treasury Yields Approach 4.05% as Markets Await FOMC Decision] ⑴ The 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 4.05% at the start of the week, hovering near its lowest point since April, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision. ⑵ The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, with a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut. Recent data suggests a significant cooling in the labor market. ⑶ Investors will focus on the Fed's updated macroeconomic forecasts (particularly the interest rate outlook), with widespread expectations that the rate-cutting cycle will continue until the end of the year. ⑷ The FOMC vote split will be closely monitored; a three-way split would be the first since 2011. ⑸ Traders are also focused on whether Stephen Milan will be confirmed as a Fed governor in time for the meeting.

21:20:31

Brazil's Economic Activity Index Declined for the Third Consecutive Month in July. (1) Brazil's IBC-Br Economic Activity Index fell 0.5% month-over-month in July 2025, marking the third consecutive month of decline. The previous reading was a 0.1% decline, worse than the market expectation of a -0.2%. (2) Agricultural and livestock output fell 0.8%, industrial output contracted 1.1%, and the service sector saw a slight decline of 0.2%. (3) The IBC-Br tax revenue index fell 0.7%, while the index excluding agriculture fell 0.4%. (4) The index rose 1.1% year-over-year to July 2024.

21:16:58

[UK Housing Market Cools, Buyers Wait for Prices] ⑴ The UK housing market showed signs of weakness in September, with average asking prices down 0.1% year-on-year. While overall sales volume increased 4% year-on-year, the number of listings increased significantly, particularly in the south, where the number rose by 9%. This suggests intensified market competition and a tendency for buyers to wait and see. ⑵ Although the average listing price rose 0.4% month-on-month to £370,257 in September, the market in the south saw a significant slowdown in sales, with properties taking an average of five days longer to find a buyer, indicating regional differentiation and a shift in market sentiment towards greater caution. ⑶ Despite rumors of a potential property tax, this does not appear to have a direct impact on the market in the short term. However, uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget may exacerbate wait-and-see sentiment in already underperforming markets, suggesting further downward pressure on the housing market.

21:16:17

[Markets Await Fed Decision, Tech Giants Under Investigation, but Tesla Bucks the Trend] ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, with traders pricing in a 68.9 basis point rate cut by the end of 2025. However, analysts point out that any cut below 25 basis points could trigger a sharp market sell-off. ⑵ Despite the US stock market's historically poor performance in September, major indices have posted positive returns so far this month, with technology stocks particularly resilient. Retail sales data released on Tuesday will provide key insights into the health of the US consumer. ⑶ The tech sector faces challenges. Nvidia, a leader in AI chips, saw its stock price fall after a preliminary investigation revealed violations of China's antitrust law. Several other US chipmakers also came under pressure. ⑷ Tesla's stock price bucked the trend, rising 8.2% due to CEO Elon Musk's purchase of nearly $1 billion worth of stock, demonstrating its resilience.

21:15:41

[Shipping Market Heats Up: Dry Bulk Index Soars, Mega Vessels Lead the Rebound] (1) The dry bulk shipping market is showing renewed vigour. The Baltic Dry Index (.BADI), a measure of freight rates for various vessel types, rose for the second consecutive trading day on Monday, reaching 2,153 points, its highest point since July 28th. This was up 27 points, or 1.3%, from the previous day. The rise was primarily driven by a significant increase in freight rates for large dry bulk vessels (Capesize). The index (.BACI) surged 84 points, or 2.7%, to 3,154 points, reaching its highest point since August 18th. (2) Average daily earnings for large dry bulk vessels surged $699 to $26,156, reflecting strong demand for vessels carrying 150,000-tonne cargoes of commodities such as iron ore and coal. However, market sentiment was not entirely optimistic. Iron ore futures prices fell due to continued weakness in China's real estate sector, despite increases in steel benchmarks and steelmaking raw material prices. (3) The Panamax freight index (.BPNI) saw its previous upward trend end, falling 3 points, or 0.2%, to 2,003. Average daily earnings for Panamax vessels fell $29 to $18,027, indicating a diverging market for this vessel type. The Supramax freight index (.BSIS) rose 1 point, or 0.1%, to 1,493, highlighting the diverging performance of different vessel types.

21:12:55

Shanghai fuel oil futures just broke through the 2,800 yuan/ton mark and are currently trading at 2,801 yuan/ton, up 0.50% on the day.

21:12:03

Trump wrote on Truth Social that companies should no longer be forced to report "quarterly," subject to approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). They should instead report every six months. This would save money and allow managers to focus on running the company correctly.

21:07:44

China's INE crude oil futures have just broken through the 490.0 yuan/barrel mark and are currently trading at 490.1 yuan/barrel, up 0.43% on the day.

21:07:11

European Currency Bulls Gather, Waiting for the Eye of the Storm (1) Although market expectations regarding the interest rate outlook have caused option implied volatility to hover at long-term lows, indicating a lack of recent and current realized volatility, risk reversals continue to show a premium for euro call options relative to put options. This suggests that market participants generally believe the risk of an upside to the euro against the dollar outweighs the risk of a downside. (2) Notably, market sentiment appears to be awaiting a clear catalyst to break the current impasse. Recent weak eurozone economic data and the possibility of a larger Federal Reserve rate cut (e.g., 50 basis points) could be key factors driving a breakout in the euro against the dollar. (3) Despite market uncertainty regarding the short-term direction, an unexpectedly aggressive Fed rate cut or significant improvement in the eurozone economy could create new trading opportunities in the options market, particularly for options expiring after the central bank's decision, whose value potential warrants further exploration.

21:04:56

Hawkish Signals Emerge, Rate Cut Expectations Fluctuate. ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, but looking ahead to the end of 2025, the median forecast from Fed officials in their latest dot plot may still indicate two rate cuts. This suggests that while inflation remains sticky, signs of labor market weakness are gaining increasing attention. ⑵ Despite market expectations for an October rate cut, the Fed Chairman's comments are likely to be cautious, but he may offer some dovish hints at the press conference to guide market sentiment. ⑶ Notably, analysts point out that the urgency of the labor market has overshadowed the difficulty of inflation, a shift that suggests that future policy decisions may be more focused on employment data.

21:04:54

The main thread price rose by 1.02% to 3159 yuan/ton

21:04:48

Is a Manufacturing Cold Wave Coming? A Sharp Drop in New York State Data in September Raises Market Concerns. (1) In September, New York State's manufacturing sector suffered a significant setback. The General Business Conditions Index plummeted from 11.9 in the previous month to -8.7, significantly worse than the expected 5.0 and hitting a three-month low. This decline reminiscent of market concerns sparked by Trump's tariff rhetoric. The New Orders Index plummeted from 15.4 to -19.6, and the Shipments Index fell from 12.2 to -17.3, indicating severe challenges facing production activities. (2) The labor market also showed signs of weakness. The Employment Index turned negative, falling from 4.4 to -1.2, the Hours Worked Index also fell from 0.2 to -5.1, and the Skills Availability Index dropped to -8.8, indicating a decline in the manufacturing sector's ability to absorb employment and overall work intensity. Despite this easing, the Prices Paid Index also contributed to an easing of price pressures. The Prices Paid Index fell from 54.1 to 46.1, a recent low. (3) Despite the bleak short-term outlook, future expectations are not entirely pessimistic. The six-month business conditions index fell slightly to 14.8, while the new orders index edged up to 16.6. However, the shipments index fell from 17.9 to 13.5, and the employment index plummeted to 1.2, its lowest level since August 2016, indicating that businesses are cautious about future hiring.

21:01:52

[Market Outlook: Multiple Signals Converge on the Eve of Central Bank Decisions] ⑴ The market is closely watching this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Fund futures indicate a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, while the probability of a 50 basis point hike is only 3%, indicating widespread market expectations for a rate cut. Notably, expectations for a further 25 basis point rate cut at both the October and December meetings also exceed 70%. However, investors will closely monitor Chairman Powell's comments to gauge whether there is any disagreement on the path of moderate rate cuts. ⑵ This week will see interest rate decisions from several central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, while the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain rates at 4.00% and 0.50%, respectively. In addition, the US will release a series of key economic data, including retail sales, industrial output, import prices, and consumer confidence, which will provide further market guidance. ⑶ Geopolitically, the market is focused on the progress of trade negotiations between the US and China. Recent Chinese economic data showed lower-than-expected factory output and retail sales growth of 5.2% and 3.4%, respectively, significantly lower than the previous reading. Meanwhile, a preliminary investigation suggests that a tech giant may have violated China's antitrust laws, undoubtedly adding to market concerns. (4) Technically, the 10-year Treasury yield hovered near the middle Bollinger Bands of 4.189% and 3.976%, respectively. Dip-buying momentum has been building since late August. US stock index futures rose slightly, and the VIX fear index rebounded, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of key events. (5) Regarding asset prices, despite volatility in Treasury yields, short-term US Treasury yields fell slightly, while long-term yields remained nearly flat. European export data declined, but exports to the US rebounded. Crude oil prices rose slightly, gold fell slightly, and copper prices rose.

21:01:12

[Double Whammy: The US Economy, Housing Market, and Job Market Under Pressure] ⑴ Latest data shows that both the US unemployment rate and weekly unemployment benefit applications have risen to their highest levels since 2021. For the first time, the number of unemployed people has exceeded the number of available jobs, indicating a rapidly deteriorating labor market. Meanwhile, housing market pressures remain severe, with average monthly mortgage payments nearly double pre-pandemic levels and overall affordability at a historically low level. According to Zillow data, the US housing shortage stands at 4.7 million units, restricting labor mobility, exacerbating regional unemployment, and hindering business hiring. ⑵ Severe housing affordability issues, coupled with low mortgage rates maintained during the pandemic, have reduced household mobility, which is particularly detrimental during the current labor market transition. Academic research indicates that an adequate supply of housing in major US job markets would result in a larger economy. In the long term, improved housing affordability is crucial to US economic growth. ⑶ Despite challenges, the widespread adoption of remote work has alleviated geographic constraints to some extent. Furthermore, the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields has pushed 30-year mortgage rates to an 11-month low. Rising inventory and weak demand are also putting pressure on housing prices. However, nearly 70% of the public are concerned about rising housing costs, and this negative sentiment could dampen consumption, especially given the uncertain job outlook. Refinery closures, leading to tight fuel supplies and higher prices, as well as higher operating costs from previous IT outages, are also weighing on corporate profits.

20:59:53

On the Eve of the Oil Price Storm: Supply and Demand Imbalance Emerges, Institutions Bearish on Brent Crude Oil in 2026] 1. The agency predicts that starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market will experience a massive surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day, further expanding to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. This widening supply-demand imbalance is closely tied to OPEC+'s plan to gradually increase production over the next 12 months. At its meeting this month, the organization decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October and begin production cuts ahead of schedule. 2. Although the agency's current baseline scenario does not factor in a direct loss of Russian supply, it anticipates that Russia will face challenges fulfilling its OPEC+ quota, and its production growth is likely to be only modest. Based on this, the agency has lowered its Russian production forecast for the end of 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day. 3. Combined with market expectations of rising Western oil inventories, the agency notes that its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast of $65 per barrel carries downside risks. These remarks, coupled with market concerns caused by Trump's previous tariff remarks, point to potential sharp fluctuations in the crude oil market.

20:59:39

[Surging Oil Prices Eat Away Profits, Threatening the Airline Industry] ⑴ Alaska Airlines expects third-quarter adjusted earnings per share to fall short of its previous forecast of $1 to $1.40, primarily due to a rise in fuel costs per gallon from approximately $2.45 to $2.55. Refinery outages on the US West Coast have tightened fuel supplies and increased prices, putting direct cost pressures on the airline industry. ⑵ Severe weather, air traffic control issues, and an IT outage in July have led to significant increases in operating costs such as passenger compensation and crew overtime, further squeezing airline profit margins. These costly operational disruptions pose profitability challenges across the industry. ⑶ Despite cost pressures, Alaska Airlines' revenue trends have improved, driven by strong premium demand and a rebound in corporate bookings. Unit revenue, a key measure of pricing power, is trending towards the upper end of its previous forecast, demonstrating some resilience.

20:57:44

Natural Gas Prices Plunge into a Freezing Hole: Supply-Demand Imbalance May Intensify Energy Company Sentiment. (1) US natural gas prices at the Waha hub in Texas plummeted to negative $1.26 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Monday, down more than 2,350% from Friday's low of about 6 cents, hitting a 17-week low. This is the sixth time Waha prices have averaged negative since 2025, significantly below the 2025 average of $1.66, highlighting a significant regional supply-demand imbalance. (2) Data shows that average natural gas production in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 107.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) since September, down from an all-time high of 108.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August. However, traders cite pipeline maintenance and other constraints, which have hindered natural gas exports from the region, as the primary reason for the negative prices. Despite significant natural gas production associated with oil production, US crude oil futures have fallen approximately 12% this year. (3) Analysts believe the persistently negative Waha prices indicate a critical need for additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure in the Permian Basin. Although new projects are under construction, they are not expected to be operational until 2026 at the earliest. Considering that oil prices may fall for the third consecutive year in 2025, some energy companies plan to cut funding for new oil drilling, which may further affect oil and gas production in the Permian region and exacerbate market concerns about future energy supply and price fluctuations.

20:52:34

Spot gold rose by about $6 in the short term, reaching $3,650.83 per ounce, as Trump again urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

20:50:21

Spot gold just broke through the $3,650.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,650.08/ounce, up 0.19% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,687.40/ounce, up 0.03% on the day.

20:49:28

Economic Activity Under Pressure: Where Does Brazil's Monetary Policy Head? (1) Brazil's economic activity index fell unexpectedly in July, dropping 0.5% month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month of contraction. This underscores signs of a slowdown in the country's economy under pressure from persistently high borrowing costs. The index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), fell by 0.2% more than expected in the survey. (2) Component-wise, productive activity in agriculture, industry, and services, as well as related tax revenue, all showed negative growth in July, contributing to the overall decline in economic activity. Despite this, the index still showed a 3.5% increase in the 12 months ending in July, without seasonal adjustment. (3) Brazil's benchmark interest rate, the Selic, remains at a high of 15%, near a two-decade peak, aimed at curbing annual inflation that has consistently exceeded its 3% target. Markets generally expect the Central Bank of Brazil to maintain interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this Wednesday. ⑷ In addition, Brazil's Ministry of Finance lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3% on Friday, from 2.5% previously, attributing the move to weaker-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter and pressure from a high interest rate environment.

20:48:24

Greer: U.S. trade surplus with Spain is a sign of a healthy trade relationship

20:47:17

Canadian Manufacturing Surges, July Data Shows Impressive Performance, with Multiple Indicators Exceeding Expectations: ⑴ Canadian manufacturing sales performed strongly in July, increasing by 2.5% month-over-month to CAD$70.32 billion, far exceeding the 1.8% increase expected by institutions and marking the fastest growth rate since August 2023. This indicates a continued recovery in local manufacturing activity, particularly driven by increased trade in transportation equipment, petroleum products, and major metals. ⑵ In terms of volume, actual sales (at constant prices) in July also saw a monthly increase of 1.6% to CAD$53.06 billion, further confirming the positive momentum in production activity. Although sales fell by 1.7% year-over-year and sales volume decreased by 3.4% year-over-year, the significant improvement in monthly data still instilled confidence in the market. ⑶ This strong sales growth, particularly in key sectors such as transportation equipment, may indicate a recovery in market demand for related commodities. This is a positive signal worth noting for those assessing the outlook for the Canadian dollar and related commodity traders, potentially influencing their risk appetite and market sentiment.

20:46:18

[Large Option Expiration, Rekindling Forex Market Volatility] ⑴ The foreign exchange market saw a significant wave of option expiries on Tuesday, with EUR/USD facing a massive 1 billion in options at the 1.1650 strike price and 2.7 billion in options in the 1.1690-1.1700 range, indicating significant trading concentration around the current price level. ⑵ Despite a significant concentration of options in the 1.1650-1.1800 range, GBP/USD options expiring that day, particularly at the 1.3500 (1.3 billion) and 1.3650 (0.6 billion) strike prices, suggest that GBP volatility could be significantly impacted, prompting market participants to closely monitor these key levels. ⑶ Regarding CHF/USD, the expiration of approximately 850 million options at strike prices of 0.7860, 0.8005, and 0.8125 could create some uncertainty about the Swiss franc's near-term trajectory, prompting traders to be wary of potential price fluctuations. (4) AUD/USD option expiration data, particularly at the 0.6600 (296 million) and 0.6625 (247 million) strike prices, indicates significant option exposure around these levels, potentially impacting short-term trading strategies. (5) Regarding Japanese Yen trading, over 1.84 billion options have expired in the USD/JPY 146.50-147.50 range, coupled with 650 million options at 147.70, suggesting this price range is currently a focus of market attention. Traders should be cautious in anticipating potential price swings.

20:45:22

The World Gold Council plans to promote digital gold, which may usher in a disruptive change in the gold market. Details>

20:43:57

US Treasury Secretary Benson: Another round of talks may be held in the coming weeks

20:40:58

Trump: "It's too late" and interest rates must be cut immediately, and the magnitude must be greater than he expected. House prices will soar

20:39:48

Canada's annual rate of wholesale inventories in July

Previous : 3.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.70%

20:39:44

New York State Manufacturing Index Falls to -8.7 in September, Hitting a Three-Month Low] ⑴ The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index fell to -8.7 in September, down from 11.9 in the previous month, well below market expectations of 5 and hitting a three-month low. ⑵ Sharp declines in new orders (-19.6 vs. 15.4 in the previous month) and shipments (-17.3 vs. 12.2) indicate a modest contraction in manufacturing activity. ⑶ Delivery times remained stable (0.0 vs. 17.4), while backlogs deteriorated slightly (-6.9 vs. -5.5). ⑷ Inventories declined for the second consecutive month (-4.9 vs. -6.4), employment remained stable (-1.2 vs. 4.4), and average hours worked decreased slightly (-5.1 vs. 0.2). ⑸ Input price inflation remained elevated (46.1 vs. 54.1), while factory-gate price inflation remained moderate (21.6 vs. 22.9). Richard Diaz, economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said: "Business optimism about the outlook remains low, and employment levels are expected to remain stable over the next six months."

20:39:27

Canadian factory sales rose by a stronger-than-expected 2.5% in July. (1) Canadian manufacturing sales rose by 2.5% to C$70.3 billion in July 2025, surpassing the previous estimate of a 0.3% increase and exceeding the previous forecast of a 1.8% increase. (2) This was the largest increase since January 2023, led by sales growth in transportation equipment (+8.6%), petroleum and coal products (+6.2%), and primary metals (+3.5%). (3) Chemical sales fell by 2.5%, becoming the largest drag. (4) Manufacturing sales fell by 1.7% year-on-year.

20:38:56

Sri Lanka's GDP grew by 4.9% in the second quarter, continuing its economic recovery. (1) Sri Lanka's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, a slight increase from the previous quarter's 4.8%, marking eight consecutive quarters of positive growth and demonstrating a gradual recovery from its worst financial crisis in decades. (2) Service sector output grew by 3.9% (previous: 2.8%), with IT programming and consulting (+18.7%), financial services (+12.3%), and postal and express delivery (+11.6%) performing particularly well. (3) Agricultural activity grew by 2.0% (previous: -0.7%), driven by animal production (+13.9%), cereal cultivation (+12.4%), plant breeding (+9.5%), and forestry (+9.5%). (4) The industrial sector grew by 5.8% (previous: 9.7%), supported by construction (+8.5%), mining and quarrying (+16.6%), and manufacturing (+3.7%).

20:38:26

US stock futures edged higher, with Tesla's stock price surging nearly 7% pre-market. (1) Futures on the three major US stock indexes edged up about 0.2% on Monday, continuing last week's strong performance as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's policy decision. (2) The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed, with a small probability of a 50 basis point cut. Investors generally expect the rate cut cycle to continue until the end of the year. (3) Tesla's stock price surged nearly 7% pre-market, following reports that Musk spent approximately $1 billion on the company's stock last week.

20:37:09

Canada's annual rate of wholesale sales in July

Previous : 3.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

20:36:20

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.00% to 4.043.

20:36:14

Kazakhstan's economic growth hit a record high of 9.6% in the first eight months of 2025. (1) Kazakhstan's short-term economic indicators grew by 9.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, the fastest growth since records began in 2008 and significantly higher than the 4.4% growth in the same period last year. (2) Strong economic performance was supported by a 21.5% increase in the transportation and warehousing sector, an 18.1% increase in construction, an 8.9% increase in wholesale and retail trade, and a 7.6% increase in mining and industry. (3) The Astana region led the way with an 18.6% increase, followed by significant growth in Shymkent (+15.0%) and North Kazakhstan (+14%). (4) The economy of East Kazakhstan contracted by 2.7%, while the Ultau region saw a 1.0% decline.

20:35:22

Botswana's Inflation Rate Rises Slightly to 1.4% in August: (1) Botswana's annualized inflation rate rose to 1.4% in August 2025, compared to a five-year low of 1.1% in the previous month. (2) The price increase for miscellaneous goods and services widened (7.9% vs. 7.5% in July), with insurance (13.4% vs. 12.9%) and personal care (5.8% vs. 4.8%) contributing the most. (3) Inflation rose for alcohol and tobacco (6.5% vs. 6.4%) and non-alcoholic beverages (5% vs. 4.3%), with fruit prices rising sharply (14.8% vs. 9.8%). (4) The decline in housing and utility prices narrowed (-3.7% vs. -4.2%), while the decline in transportation prices moderated (-1.6% vs. -1.9%). (5) The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5% month-on-month in August, compared to a 0.7% decline in the previous month.

20:35:19

Canada's manufacturing inventory monthly rate for July

Previous : 0% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

20:33:56

[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Futures Product Views] (1) Palm Oil: Flat. The 01 contract showed a "weak spot, strong futures" divergence. Rising port inventories, but concentrated restocking before the National Day and Holidays drove spot trading up 50% weekly. Futures saw increased intraday selling pressure, but the closing center of gravity gradually shifted upward, indicating a willingness to buy at low levels. Short-term momentum is lacking, and the market will remain range-bound. (2) Soybean Meal: Maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term. Soybean supplies are ample in the fourth quarter, but a potential gap in the first quarter of next year could support premiums for deferred futures. Reserve soybean auctions and tariff negotiations are impacting short-term sentiment, and concrete policy progress needs to be monitored. Short-term momentum is insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended. (3) Corn: A light position may be considered for short selling. Traders' strong profits last year are fueling speculation in the new season. Lower year-over-year inventories at northern ports are supporting a year-over-year increase in opening prices in Northeast China. New season spring corn is expected to initially strengthen before weakening upon its release, so a light position for short selling is recommended. (4) Hogs: Maintain a light position for short selling on rallies. Slaughter volumes may continue to increase in September, with limited room for weight reduction and a slight overall increase in supply. Reduced slaughter at the end of the month and the beginning of the month may drive a rebound in spot prices. Demand is gradually increasing, but the boost from National Day stocking is limited. Long-term outlook remains bearish, and a light position is recommended for short trading. (5) Eggs: Maintain a bearish outlook. Open interest is significantly higher than during the same period, but has recently declined. Funding trends warrant attention. Far-month contracts offer high premiums and are overvalued. Long-term supply continues to increase, but peak season demand has fallen short of expectations, leading to weak spot prices.

20:33:22

Canada's wholesale inventory monthly rate for July

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 1%

20:33:03

U.S. Treasury yields edged lower after the New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing data; the 10-year Treasury yield was last down 0.7 basis points at 4.053%.

20:32:54

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Futures Product Outlook] ⑴ Crude Oil: Fluctuating at a low level, with an eye on geopolitical risks. The impact of OPEC+ production increases is gradually being absorbed. Trump's threat of sanctions against Russia and the Ukrainian attack on Russian refineries are supporting geopolitical premiums, and downside potential is expected to be limited. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Fluctuating at a low level. US sanctions on terminal operators and the unstable situation in the Middle East between Russia and Ukraine are supporting the spread structure, so an overly bearish outlook is not recommended. ⑶ Glass: Buy on dips. The spot price has slightly adjusted to 1,160 yuan/ton. Sustained midstream cargoes are insufficient, but expectations of inventory restocking in September and October and policy news are supporting the market. The recommended entry range is 1,185-1,195. ⑷ Soda Ash: Buy on dips. The market is stable and subdued, with operating rates falling to 85.16%, inventories falling significantly, and basis quotes stable. Strong downstream glass production and recovering commodity sentiment are supporting a temporary rebound. ⑸ Caustic Soda: Buy on dips. High prices for Shandong liquid caustic soda have led to poor sales, resulting in increased inventories. Alumina purchase prices have been lowered to 800 yuan, but expectations of restocking before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and high alumina production are supporting optimism. (6) Methanol: Fluctuating but positive. Taicang spot prices rose to 2,295 yuan. High port inventories and expectations of a peak season are balancing out, supporting prices with strong short-term commodity sentiment.

20:32:45

The New York Fed's manufacturing outlook Index for the next six months in September

Previous : 16 Forecast : -

Published Value 14.80

20:32:38

The New York Fed's Manufacturing Price Payment Index for September in the United States

Previous : 54.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 46.10

20:31:47

[Caixin Futures: Gold and Non-ferrous Metal Futures Outlook] (1) Gold: Bullish. A higher-than-expected CPI confirms inflation stickiness, while initial jobless claims data reinforce expectations of rate cuts. Expectations of falling real interest rates are supporting gold prices. Global central banks' de-dollarization and geopolitical conflicts are long-term positive factors, with the support range shifting down to 823-830 yuan. (2) Alumina: Short on rallies. Recovering production capacity, increasing inventories, and the opening of the import window are exacerbating supply pressures. Fundamentals maintain an oversupply situation, so short on rallies is recommended. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: Long on dips. Market expectations for the peak season of September and October are high, but increased LME Asian warehouse pickups are raising supply concerns. Despite a slight inventory accumulation, the outlook remains bullish. (4) Cast aluminum alloys: Long on dips. Intensifying aluminum scrap market shortages are driving up prices. While the traditional peak season is approaching, demand quality remains uncertain. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, prices are trending higher. (5) Lithium carbonate: Cautiously wait-and-see. CATL's production guidance exceeded expectations, and downstream companies were willing to stock up, but the self-inspection of Yichun mining companies was pending, and uncertainty on the supply side remained.

20:31:44

The New York Fed's manufacturing price acquisition index for September in the United States

Previous : 22.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 21.60

20:31:37

The New York Fed's manufacturing New Orders Index for September in the United States

Previous : 15.40 Forecast : -

Published Value -19.60

20:31:30

The monthly rate of outstanding orders in Canada's manufacturing sector in July

Previous : 3% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10%

20:31:19

Canada's monthly rate of new manufacturing orders in July

Previous : 6% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.20%

20:31:10

Canada's manufacturing inventory shipment ratio for July

Previous : 1.75 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.72

20:31:00

The New York Fed's manufacturing Employment Index for September in the United States

Previous : 4.40 Forecast : -

Published Value -8.70

20:30:29

Canada's manufacturing sales monthly rate in July

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 1.80%

加元金银

美元

Published Value 2.50%

20:30:26

Canada's manufacturing sales monthly rate in July

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 1.80%

加元金银

美元

Published Value 2.50%

20:30:24

[Caixin Futures: Highlights on Ferrous Metals Futures] (1) Rebar: Fluctuating. The reference range for the 01 contract is 3,100-3,180 yuan/ton. Currently, weak realities and strong expectations are in a fierce battle. Supply and demand drivers are weak, but cost support remains. A breakthrough depends on the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the initiation of downstream inventory replenishment. Funding indicators indicate a more active increase in long positions in the top 20 positions for the 01 contract. (2) Hot-rolled coil: Fluctuating slightly to the bearish side. Fundamentals are similar to rebar, but funding indicators indicate a slight increase in short positions in the top 20 positions for the 01 contract, with position changes slightly to the bearish side. (3) Iron ore: Recommended 1-5 positive arbitrage positions. Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global shipments are operating at a high level, port storage has fluctuated slightly, and the actual market conflict is not significant. Expectations of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are supporting prices. In the medium term, we will monitor the progress of shipments from the Simandou project and changes in hot metal production. (4) Coking coal: Fluctuating with a relatively strong bias. Growing anti-involutionary expectations and pre-holiday inventory replenishment are boosting the market, but spot price momentum is insufficient (we need to monitor sentiment changes after the second round of price increases and reductions for coke). The basis weakened, and liquidity indicates an increase in both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of the 01 contract, with the increase in long positions being greater. We recommend a short-term buy on a correction. (5) Coke: A long coal, short coke strategy. Coking companies are actively producing, steel mill inventories have reached a safe level, and the tight supply and demand situation has improved. Cost support is strong, but valuations are already high, so chasing the rally is not advisable. (6) Manganese silicon: Fluctuating at a low level. Manganese ore shipments are stable, with factory operations recovering and inventories increasing slightly. Expectations of declining demand are suppressing prices, and insufficient internal driving force is leading to price fluctuations driven by raw materials. Liquidity indicates a decrease in longs and an increase in shorts in the top 20 positions of the 2601 contract, with a bearish bias.

20:30:09

Canada's wholesale sales monthly rate for July

Previous : 0.70% Forecast : 1.30%

加元

Published Value 1.20%

20:30:03

The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September in the United States

Previous : 11.90 Forecast : 5

金银石油

美元

Published Value -8.70

20:28:02

[Nordic Union Bank: There is no reason for the Norwegian Central Bank to cut interest rates on Thursday] Nordic Union Bank analysts Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard said that apart from the Norwegian Central Bank’s signal of a rate cut in June, the bank had no basis to lower the key interest rate on Thursday. The Norwegian Central Bank launched its first monetary policy easing in this cycle in June, lowering the key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, and has long been sending signals that it will gradually cut interest rates further. The expectation of a rate cut is based on the premise that "monetary policy is suppressing economic activity", but Nordic Union Bank questioned this premise. The bank pointed out that the Norwegian economy has rebounded sharply after two years of moderate growth. At the same time, the inflation rate is still well above the target level of 2%. The two said: "Although we are extremely uncertain about what actions (Nordic Central Bank policymakers) will take, we believe that they will keep interest rates unchanged."

20:27:42

[The US Dollar Sees Short-Term Support, Increasing US Treasury Volatility] ⑴ The surge in short-term interest rates (e.g., the GC rate rising to 4.60%) has directly increased the attractiveness of holding US dollars, providing short-term support for the US dollar exchange rate. ⑵ Tight liquidity and pressure on the interest rate corridor (the GC rate breached the upper limit by 10 basis points) may weaken market demand for medium- and long-term US Treasury bonds, particularly weighing on the prices of short- and medium-term bonds (e.g., the 5-year). ⑶ Strong market expectations for a FOMC rate cut (100% pricing in a 25 basis point rate) limit the dollar's potential to strengthen due to rising short-term interest rates and may exacerbate the bull-bear game in the US Treasury market. ⑷ The outflow pressure from Treasury auctions (US$78 billion settled) directly withdrew market liquidity and was a key technical factor contributing to the short-term upward trend in US Treasury yields. ⑸ The wide spread (43.7 basis points) between interest rate swaps (OIS) and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) reflects the coexistence of market policy expectations and tight spot funding conditions. This divergence has exacerbated US Treasury yield volatility.

20:26:41

[Suddenly Tightened Funding, Upper Limit of Interest Rate Corridor Broken!] ⑴ Driven by the accumulation of cash during the September tax season and the settlement of a $78 billion Treasury auction, the overnight collateral rate (GC) bid price surged to 4.60%, a significant increase of 12 basis points from last Friday. ⑵ Capital outflow pressure, coupled with market bullish positioning in anticipation of a Federal Open Market Committee rate cut on Wednesday, has led to insufficient money supply, causing the GC rate to breach the upper limit of the 4.25%-4.50% interest rate corridor by 10 basis points. ⑶ The Federal Reserve's open market operation (RP) will be conducted at 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday at a rate of 4.50%, with a maximum size of $500 billion. If overnight interest rates remain high, this operation is likely to see significant use. ⑷ Demand for RP operations has recently been declining. Total demand on September 12th was $17.33 billion, down from $26.9 billion the previous day, with participants allocating $3.58 billion each. (5) The 10-year Treasury premium disappeared with the completion of the current coupon settlement, while the 20-year Treasury premium rose to 55 basis points before Thursday's auction. The 5-year Treasury premium rose to 20 basis points through the GC rate. (6) The interest rate swap market shows that the 0x3 OIS fell to 3.953%, 43.7 basis points below the 10-day average SOFR, indicating that the market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut to 4.00%-4.25% in September. (7) The current federal funds market interest rate range is 4.31%-4.33%, and federal funds futures are pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, consistent with SOFR futures expectations. (8) The 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month repo rates were reported at 4.23%, 4.27%, and 4.28%, respectively. The GCF bid price reached 4.61%, and the collateral bid price rose to 4.67%. ⑼ The interest rate spread between GC and the overnight interbank reserve requirement ratio is 0.20%, the interest rate spread with RP is 0.21%, and the interest rate spread with 0x3 OIS is 0.547%, indicating a significant increase in short-term funding costs. ⑽ Market expectations and technical factors such as tax periods and auctions have exacerbated liquidity fluctuations. Trading institutions are closely monitoring the game between interest rate corridor pressure and policy adjustment signals.

20:25:11

Loongson Technology: First GPGPU Chip 9A1000 to Tape Out in Q3 Loongson Technology announced on its interactive platform that the development of its first GPGPU chip, the 9A1000, is nearly complete and will be tape-out in Q3. Success will depend on test results after tape-out.

20:25:03

[Goldman Sachs: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once more after September] In addition to the 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday as widely expected by the market, Federal Reserve officials may also include in their plans at least one more rate cut before the end of the year. Goldman Sachs analyst David Mericle said that the latest "dot plot" released by the Federal Reserve in June showed that the median expectation of officials was two cumulative rate cuts in 2025, and this expectation is likely to remain at this level. He pointed out that inflation remains a thorny issue, but the urgency of the labor market has increased. Mericle also said that the Federal Reserve Chairman may not directly commit to an October rate cut at the press conference: "However, Chairman Powell may hint in this direction at the press conference."

20:24:17

Are Russian grain exports facing obstacles? Data reveals three major shifts. (1) Institutional estimates indicate that Russia's exports of wheat, barley, and corn in September will reach 4.8 million tons, down from 5.1 million tons in August, but higher than last week's estimate of 4.7 million tons. This data suggests that while exports may fluctuate slightly in the short term, they remain resilient compared to the same period last year. (2) Data shows that from September 2024 to August 2025, Russian wheat exports will gradually decline from an estimated 5.1 million tons to 2 million tons, then rebound to 4.4 million tons in August 2025, with a September forecast of 4.2 million tons. Corn exports, after reaching 5 million tons in July 2025, are now projected at 2 million tons in September, indicating significant uncertainty. (3) Overall, Russia's total grain exports will be 5.8 million tons in September 2024, projected to rise to 5.1 million tons by August 2025, but then fall back to 4.8 million tons in September. This volatility may be affected by a variety of factors, including seasonal changes, global demand and geopolitical factors, and traders need to pay close attention to relevant developments.

20:20:57

[Technical Analysis of the US Dollar Index] Based on the daily chart, the current price is below the middle Bollinger Band at 97.9808 and above the lower Bollinger Band at 97.3066, showing a weak consolidation structure of "above the lower band - below the middle band". The upper band at 98.6549 continues to move downward from its high, and the convergence of bandwidth indicates that volatility has fallen, approaching the early stage of "Bollinger Band Squeeze". The momentum of subsequent direction selection will rely more on fundamental catalysts. In terms of MACD, DIFF is -0.1774, DEA is -0.1247, and the histogram is -0.1055. The short-term momentum is still below the zero axis but narrowing, indicating that the downward momentum is decreasing and the short-term "weakness is blunting". RSI (14) is at 42.9043, which is in a neutral to weak range, neither oversold nor recovered to the strong zone (>50). The candlestick chart shows small real bodies and fluctuating upper shadows over the past two weeks, indicating persistent selling pressure from above. However, support has been found repeatedly between 97.30 and 97.24, forming a horizontal-dynamic resonant support pattern along the lower edge. Regarding resistance and support, initial resistance lies around 98.00 (the middle Bollinger band and a previously high-volume trading area), followed by 98.25 (the upper limit of the September 5th range) and 98.65 (the upper Bollinger band). Initial support lies between 97.30 and 97.24. If this fails, watch for a retest of the previous low at 96.86. Conversely, a daily close above 98.00, accompanied by a continued decline in the MACD-histogram and a crossover above 50 by the RSI, could trigger a test of the 98.25-98.65 range. The overall pattern remains a low-volatility consolidation within a descending channel, with the short-term outlook more likely to see a tug-of-war between technical rebounds and weak fluctuations.

20:20:47

[Markets Await the Federal Reserve's Decision, with Multiple Economic Data and Central Bank Dynamics on the Mind] ⑴ The market generally expects the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this Wednesday, with fund futures indicating a 97% probability of a rate cut. Market attention is also focused on Chairman Powell's statement on the path of future rate cuts, despite signs that his "patient" approach is facing opposition. His stance on interest rate policy will be particularly crucial, especially with the Senate likely to confirm Trump's nominee, Stephan Miran, to the Fed. ⑵ This week, several central banks will announce interest rate decisions. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the Bank of England is likely to maintain its rate at 4.00%, and the Bank of Japan is also expected to keep its rate unchanged at 0.50%. These decisions will provide important guidance on the direction of global monetary policy. ⑶ In terms of economic data, this week will see the release of a series of important data, including the US Empire State Manufacturing Index for September (expected to be 5.0, compared to 11.9 previously), retail sales, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, as well as housing starts and building permits. These data will provide a basis for assessing economic prosperity. ⑷ It is worth noting that despite the optimism, negative news from China cannot be ignored. Factory output and retail sales data for September were weak, recording year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 3.4%, respectively, far below market expectations. At the same time, preliminary investigations indicate that Nvidia may have violated antitrust laws in an acquisition transaction. This news comes amidst the Sino-US trade negotiations, adding to market uncertainty. ⑸ On the trading level, the 10-year US Treasury yield is currently hovering around 4.060%. After the recent volatility, the market has shown momentum for buying on dips, but changes in the slope of the curve and volatility indicate that market sentiment still needs further clarification.

20:20:01

[Bond Market Reaction Stable, No Panic After France's Credit Rating Downgrade] Michael Nizard, an analyst at Rothschild Asset Management, stated in a report that the bond market's reaction to Fitch Ratings' downgrade of France's credit rating was not a panic. The head of multi-asset and overlay strategies noted that the recent rise in French 10-year government bond yields stemmed from investor concerns about France's ability to implement fiscal deficit reduction measures, leading to higher risk premiums. However, current yields remain well below levels seen during the sovereign debt crisis. He stated, "Most investors still believe French bonds are of good quality."

20:19:43

The game between short-selling crowding and dot plot expectations: Is the risk of the US dollar on the lower or upper edge? Details>

20:18:35

[Market Awaits FOMC, Short-Term Futures Trading Strategies Emerge] ⑴ The overnight market stabilized after a 1-2 basis point drop, indicating a wait-and-see approach in the short-term interest rate futures market. Market participants are generally awaiting Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, particularly whether the language will shift from its current restrictive stance to a dovish one or maintain the status quo. ⑵ From a technical analysis perspective, the moving average model suggests a light position strategy in SOFR futures. Specifically, the model indicates a "buy" signal from the 13-day and 38-day moving average crossover, but recommends reducing long positions in contracts such as SRAZ25, SRAZ26, SRAZ27, and SRAZ28. ⑶ Based on current data, December SOFR futures opened mixed, with SRAZ25 down 1 basis point, while SRAZ26 and SRAZ27 rose 1 basis point, and SRAZ28 remained flat. The trading range remained narrow, indicating market caution ahead of key events.

20:18:32

[The national box office revenue of commercial performances in the summer of 2025 increased by 3.9% year-on-year] According to the monitoring and comprehensive calculation of the ticketing information collection platform of the China Performing Arts Industry Association, there will be 126,300 commercial performances (excluding performances in entertainment venues) nationwide in the summer of 2025 (July-August), a year-on-year increase of 4.18% compared with the summer of 2024; box office revenue will be 15.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.90%; the number of spectators will be 42.2332 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.17%.

20:15:59

The FTSE China A50 Index futures just broke through the 15200.00 mark and is currently trading at 15203.00, up 0.03% on the day.

20:13:14

Barclays to revamp trading floor during New York headquarters renovation

38

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Under Regulation

Jufeng Bullion

More than 10 years | License of the Gold and Silver Exchange | New customers receive a bonus

Overall Rating 88.0

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3656.97	12.70 (0.35%)
XAG	42.187	0.394 (0.94%)
CONC	62.61	-0.65 (-1.03%)
OILC	66.89	-0.57 (-0.84%)
USD	97.529	0.173 (0.18%)
EURUSD	1.1764	-0.0021 (-0.18%)
GBPUSD	1.3501	-0.0053 (-0.39%)
USDCNH	7.1133	0.0066 (0.09%)

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