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2026-07-14 Tuesday

2026-07-19

20:33:16

US June CPI (Unadjusted)

Previous : 0.63% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.35%

Previous

20:32:23

US June CPI monthly rate (seasonally adjusted)

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -0.10%

Published Value -0.40%

Previous

20:32:22

US June core CPI monthly rate (seasonally adjusted)

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 0%

Previous

20:32:19

US June core CPI annual rate, unadjusted.

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.80%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 2.60%

Previous

20:32:18

US June CPI annual rate, unadjusted.

Previous : 4.20% Forecast : 3.80%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 3.50%

Previous

20:32:15

US June CPI reading (unadjusted)

Previous : 335.12 Forecast : 334.70

Published Value 333.95

Previous

20:16:15

U.S. ADP Employment Change (in thousands) for the week ending June 27

Previous : 2.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.98

Previous

20:16:11

[Bond Issuance Momentum Remains Strong, Widening Franco-German Interest Rate Spread Draws Attention] ⑴ Global bond issuance grew by approximately 7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with public sector issuance remaining largely flat and corporate bond issuance increasing by 10%. Financial institutions performed particularly well, with issuance volume nearly 30% higher than the same period last year, becoming the main driver of the market. ⑵ High liquidity and investor demand jointly supported bond market activity. This, coupled with the postponement of some issuance plans from last year to this year and the concentrated release of refinancing demand for maturing debt, collectively boosted supply in the first half of the year. ⑶ Societe Generale expects a more complex macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year, but the pace of issuance will not slow significantly. Refinancing transactions, M&A financing, and investment plans by large technology companies will continue to provide support, maintaining a constructive view on the overall credit market. ⑷ The institution believes that credit spreads may widen slightly in the second half of the year, but robust corporate profits in the Spanish market are expected to keep spreads near current levels. However, geopolitical tensions may trigger temporary periods of tension. ⑸ At the central bank policy level, inflationary pressures in Europe have not subsided. Fiscal spending and energy costs may put the European Central Bank at risk of another interest rate hike, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in the coming months. The divergence in policy paths warrants attention. (6) Spanish government bonds outperformed French bonds. With the French election approaching, yields on Spanish bonds face upward pressure. The spread between 10-year Spanish and German bond yields remained around 40 basis points, while the Franco-German yield spread has the potential to widen further.

19:52:12

[Earnings Season Starts Divergent, Market Hesitant Ahead of CPI] ⑴ US stocks diverged in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Dow Jones futures fell nearly 1%, S&P 500 futures dipped slightly, while Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded slightly by about 0.4%, with the technology sector showing signs of stabilization after a significant correction the previous day. ⑵ Earnings from major Wall Street firms failed to boost the financial sector. Despite profit growth, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America shares fell by about 3% and nearly 1%, respectively. Investors are closely scrutinizing earnings details, attempting to glean early signals of the economy's health. ⑶ IBM's stock plunged about 17% after preliminary revenue forecasts fell short of market expectations, dragging down Oracle, ServiceNow, and other software peers, with declines ranging from 2% to 7%, making it the weakest sector in pre-market trading. ⑷ The market is focused on the upcoming CPI data. While inflationary pressures are expected to ease, escalating geopolitical tensions could push up energy costs again, creating uncertainty about the future inflation path. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks will have an impact on market sentiment no less significant than the data itself. (5) Federal Reserve officials previously signaled a hawkish stance, mentioning that further policy tightening might be possible if inflation continues to exceed the target. Currently, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike this month remain around 40%. Coupled with oil prices rising to a four-week high, overall risk appetite is suppressed. (6) The chip sector attempted to stabilize after a sharp decline, with related ETFs rising over 2%. Some funds flowed back into previously significantly corrected technology sub-sectors. The market remains cautiously speculative before the data release, awaiting further clues about inflation trends and policy paths.

19:50:12

[Geopolitical tensions ignite bullish sentiment in crude oil, Hormuz standoff reshapes cost logic per barrel] ⑴ The sudden escalation of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz has propelled international oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude broke through the key $87 per barrel barrier again after a month, with WTI crude following suit. Both benchmark contracts recorded gains of nearly 10% in the previous trading day, and bullish sentiment quickly accumulated. ⑵ Trump's tariff remarks, coupled with the US's renewed naval blockade of Iranian ships entering and leaving ports, directly shattered previous optimistic expectations about the restoration of normal shipping routes. Analysts pointed out that the impact of resuming the blockade on market psychology and actual supply far exceeds the impact of suspending sanctions waivers, and the previously reached memorandum of understanding has been effectively nullified. ⑶ The US also announced that it would maintain the Strait's openness, but proposed a security exchange plan involving a security fee of about 20% on transit cargo. Analysts calculated that, based on standard very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and current oil prices, the additional cost per ship would reach tens of millions of dollars, equivalent to an increase of nearly $16 per barrel, far exceeding the passage fee rate proposed by Iran, and the supply cost structure is facing a reassessment. (4) Since Iran opened fire on merchant ships last week, the exchange of fire has continued for several days, marking the most serious escalation of the conflict since the ceasefire in mid-June. Shipping activity in the Persian Gulf has slowed significantly, with confirmed transit cargo frequency plummeting from an average of thirty times per day at the beginning of the month to eleven times recently, indicating a significant increase in obstacles to the flow of goods. (5) However, the crude oil market has not yet fully priced in a long-term supply shock. Traders tend to bet that factors such as global inventory buffers, weak demand in some regions, alternative export routes, and potential demand disruptions are sufficient to offset the risk of short-term disruptions. However, if the standoff continues to escalate, the supply and demand balance may face a new round of sharp corrections.

19:48:12

[German 2027 Electricity Contracts Surge, Gas Price Link Dominates European Energy Pricing] ⑴ Driven by escalating concerns about shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, European forward electricity prices strengthened across the board on Tuesday, with the German 2027 baseload contract reaching its highest closing level since February 2025. ⑵ Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures also hit their highest level since April on the same day. The Strait of Hormuz blockade and attacks on shipping have exacerbated market panic regarding energy supply disruptions, and the strengthening gas prices have directly pushed up the German forward electricity curve through marginal pricing mechanisms. ⑶ Mind Energy analysts pointed out that the significant increase in the German forward electricity futures curve is fundamentally due to the high dependence of the German power system on natural gas; every fluctuation in gas prices is amplified and transmitted to electricity pricing. ⑷ The spot market showed even greater elasticity, with the French daily baseload contract surging nearly 17% and the German daily contract rising nearly 7%, reflecting a more fragile short-term supply-demand balance and a more pronounced immediate response to geopolitical events. (5) Regarding marginal changes on the supply side, wind power in Germany is expected to decrease by 2.08 gigawatts, solar power output in France and Germany is rising while that in France is falling, and the utilization rate of nuclear energy in France has dropped to 84%. With multiple factors combined, the European electricity market is more likely to rise than fall in the short term.

19:38:11

[Iranian Oil Minister Says Oil Exports "As Usual"] Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejhad said on the 14th that despite the US revoking oil sanctions waivers and threatening to reinstate the maritime blockade, Iran's oil exports have been unaffected and everything is "as usual." Paknejhad stated on the social media platform "Telegram" that Iran has developed a national mechanism over the years to "offset the impact of US sanctions," and its oil exports "will not have any problems." The Financial Times previously reported that, facing Western sanctions, Iran has pursued a "resistance economy" policy for decades, encouraging self-reliance and domestic production, establishing an independent national economy and defense industry, demonstrating strong resilience. A former Iranian economic official believes that even if the war continues for a year, the Iranian economy can still weather the storm. Last week, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced the revocation of the 60-day authorization for the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil, thus restricting Iran's ability to sell oil on the open market. Last month, the US and Iran remotely signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. As a first step, Iran immediately reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and the US immediately lifted the maritime blockade. However, on September 26, the United States resumed military strikes against Iran, citing Iranian attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 13, Trump stated that he would reinstate the naval blockade against Iran and impose a 20% fee on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reported on September 13 that Trump had formally notified Congress of the renewed conflict with Iran. (Xinhua)

19:30:12

[If Core CPI Exceeds 0.26%, a September Rate Hike May Be Back on the Agenda] ⑴ The June core CPI, released on Tuesday, is the most important macroeconomic variable this week. Market consensus expects the overall CPI to fall by 0.2% month-on-month, while a 0.2% month-on-month increase in core CPI corresponds to a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. However, if the core CPI rises by 0.26% or higher, the annual rate will rise to 2.9%, triggering the Fed's concerns about persistent inflation. ⑵ Fed Governor Waller clearly released a hawkish signal on Monday, stating that if the June core CPI continues to show inflationary pressure, a tightening of policy in the short term needs to be considered. However, a direction can only be confirmed after several consecutive months of low readings. The interest rate market has already fully priced in a September rate hike. ⑶ Currently, the market is overly focused on the mild appearance of the core CPI, ignoring the huge deviation of nearly 3.5% year-on-year between it and the Fed's preferred core PCE. AI-driven investment demand continues to support the PCE at a high level through channels such as business services, an indicator that is already within the Fed's purview. (4) Another layer of inflationary pressure is accumulating from the wholesale end: the Russian diesel export ban, high aviation fuel prices, Middle East energy risks, and attacks on Russian refining facilities will all keep transportation and logistics costs high, and the transmission of PPI to core CPI is only a matter of time. (5) Regarding US Treasuries, the 2-year yield has climbed to 4.298%, a 17-month high. The market implies a cumulative rate hike of about 45 basis points before the end of the year. However, after a significant repricing at the front end, 2-year Treasury bonds above 4.25% are already attractive for allocation. The 10-year yield is expected to be between 4.58% and 4.62%. In the short term, a range trading strategy should be maintained.

19:26:14

[Soybean Meal Transactions Decline for Two Consecutive Days, Spot Market Volume Shrinks Significantly] ⑴ On Tuesday, the total transaction volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil plants was 74,700 tons, a decrease of 25,700 tons from the previous trading day, marking the second consecutive day of decline and widening the gap with last week's average of 310,000 tons. ⑵ Of this, spot transactions totaled 72,200 tons, while basis transactions amounted to only 2,500 tons, with spot transactions accounting for a high 96.7%, indicating extremely low market willingness to purchase on the basis in the forward market, with trading concentrated on immediate demand. ⑶ Monday's transaction volume of 100,400 tons was already a decrease of 75,600 tons from last Friday, and Tuesday saw a further contraction, with a cumulative decrease of over 100,000 tons in two days, indicating a rapid decline in trading activity. ⑷ Last week's peak transaction volume occurred on Monday at 336,000 tons, followed by a gradual decline each day, reaching less than a quarter of the peak on Tuesday, reflecting that downstream buyers, after concentrated restocking in the previous period, have entered a phase of inventory digestion, with limited new purchasing power. (5) The total transaction volume in the spot market over the past two days was 128,600 tons, which is still lower than the daily average of 64,480 tons last week. The pace of terminal delivery has not accelerated significantly with price fluctuations. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in the operating rate of oil plants and the number of days of physical inventory of feed companies.

19:26:13

[Soybean Oil Transactions Surge More Than Triple, But Absolute Volume Still Far Below Last Week's Average] ⑴ On Tuesday, the national transaction volume of first-grade soybean oil reached 14,800 tons, a surge of 362.5% compared to the previous trading day, marking the second consecutive day of increased volume and ending the extreme sluggishness of the previous two days. ⑵ Monday's transaction volume was only 3,200 tons, although the increase was as high as 814% compared to the previous week, the base was extremely low, and the absolute value was still in the low range; while Tuesday's 14,800 tons, although a significant jump compared to the previous week, is still far from the weekly average of 33,010 tons last week. ⑶ Reviewing last week's transaction rhythm, the volume surged to 45,800 tons at the beginning of the week, then gradually declined, reaching a low of 350 tons on Wednesday. Although there was some recovery on Thursday and Friday, it never returned to the high level at the beginning of the week, reflecting the obvious pulse-like characteristics of downstream procurement. (4) Current transaction volume is in the low to mid-range, still some distance from the platform level after the surge in volume at the beginning of the week. End-users and traders are not strongly inclined to replenish their inventories amid price fluctuations, and the wait-and-see attitude has not completely subsided. (5) Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the 14,800-ton surge in volume can continue or further increase on Wednesday. If transaction volume fails to return to above 20,000 tons, Tuesday's rebound should be viewed more as a short-term sentiment recovery rather than a signal of a trend-based recovery.

19:26:12

[Building Materials Transactions Jump 44% in a Single Day, Suspicion Remains on the Sustainability of the Demand Pulse] ⑴ On Tuesday, the national building materials transaction volume reached 97,900 tons, a significant increase of 44.2% compared to the previous trading day, representing a notable surge in volume recently and ending the previous three-day decline. ⑵ The transaction pace had been consistently weak, with Friday's volume at 67,900 tons, Thursday's at 74,700 tons, and Wednesday's at 83,800 tons, showing a gradual decline. Tuesday's rebound to near last week's average of 90,000 tons reflects a temporary recovery in end-user purchasing intentions. ⑶ Last week's single-day peak occurred on July 8th at 104,600 tons, followed by a continuous decline to Monday's low of 67,900 tons. Although Tuesday's rebound was strong, the absolute volume still did not break through the 100,000-ton mark, and its strength needs further confirmation. ⑷ From a week-on-week perspective, after a sharp drop of 9% on Monday, Tuesday saw a jump of 44.2%, with significantly amplified intraday volatility. This rapid rise and fall in transaction volume usually indicates unstable market sentiment and intensified competition between traders and end-users. (5) The focus of attention in the future is whether this surge in volume can continue. If the transaction volume stabilizes above 100,000 tons in the following days, it may indicate a substantial recovery in the willingness of downstream construction sites to purchase goods. Conversely, if it falls again, Tuesday's rebound may only be a restocking behavior after a sharp drop.

19:26:11

[Domestic Palm Oil Transactions Plunge to 100 Tons, Spot Market Reaches Freezing Point] ⑴ On Tuesday, the transaction volume of 24-degree palm oil at national ports was only 100 tons, a sharp drop of 89.57% compared to the previous trading day, setting a new recent record for single-day transaction volume, indicating a sharp cooling of market sentiment. ⑵ Looking back at the previous few trading days, the transaction volume of 959 tons on Friday and 950 tons on Thursday were both in a relatively active range, with a weekly average of about 472 tons. Tuesday's data was far below the average level, reflecting a precipitous contraction in downstream purchasing intentions. ⑶ Although the transaction volume of 959 tons on Monday increased slightly by 0.95% compared to the previous week, it did not continue the upward trend. On Tuesday, it quickly fell back to the 100-ton level, showing a lack of sustained momentum on the demand side, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see attitude at the current price range. (4) In terms of transaction volume, transactions fluctuated between 220 and 950 tons for three consecutive days from July 8th to 10th. The volume remained flat on the 9th compared to the previous day, while it plummeted by 56% on the 8th, indicating that the market was already in a weak equilibrium, and external disturbances could easily trigger a sharp drop in transactions. (5) The sluggish spot market contrasts sharply with the volatility in the futures market. The sharp drop in palm oil transactions may reflect that downstream end-user inventories are still sufficient and their willingness to replenish stocks is insufficient. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether the inverted import profit margin has dampened traders' purchasing enthusiasm.

19:24:11

[US Soybeans and Corn Prices Rise and Fall Amid Weather and Black Sea Shipping Risks] ⑴ Chicago soybean and corn futures fell on Tuesday, pressured by an improved crop condition rating in the USDA's weekly report. Corn's condition rating was 68%, up from 67% the previous week, and soybeans' was 65%, also up from 64%. Short-term supply expectations weighed on prices. ⑵ However, the threat of hot and dry weather persists. The western half of the US Midwest Corn Belt is expected to remain hot and dry this week and next. The USDA has already given a high average yield estimate of 183 bushels per acre; if the weather worsens, actual yields could be revised downwards. ⑶ Geopolitically, shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov in the Black Sea are also affecting the market. Ukraine's attacks on tankers and merchant ships in the region have raised export concerns. Commerzbank pointed out that if the restrictions continue for a long time, there could be a significant wheat supply gap. ⑷ About a quarter of Russia's grain exports pass through the Sea of Azov. The port restrictions that took effect last Friday have already substantially disrupted trade flows. Coupled with the spillover effects of tensions in the Middle East, risk premiums in the grain market remain high. (5) From a trading perspective, US soybeans and corn just hit new monthly highs on Monday, and the pullback on Tuesday reflected more short-term profit-taking after the improvement in the good-to-excellent rating. However, neither the weather nor shipping variables showed a trend reversal. In the future, attention should still be paid to the duration of the high temperatures and the progress of the Black Sea Channel restoration.

19:18:11

[Not Just Focusing on Oil Prices, Natural Gas Inventory Concerns Cause Greater Market Anxiety] ⑴ Since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran, oil prices have consistently been the core benchmark for the market to measure the economic impact of the conflict. Rising prices directly push up inflation expectations and strengthen central bank interest rate hikes. This week, the money market's pricing of policy tightening has risen in tandem with oil prices. ⑵ However, Jordan Rochester, head of EMEA fixed income strategy at Mizuho Securities, points out that the greater concern lies in natural gas. Gas storage injection rates remain below normal levels during the summer, and importers may be forced to engage in non-economical purchases during the off-season to avoid hefty fines. ⑶ If natural gas prices break through the highs since the start of this conflict, their impact on inflation will far exceed the initial impact of crude oil, as electricity prices and fertilizer costs will rise in tandem, forming a broader price transmission chain. ⑷ The Strait of Hormuz is both a major oil transport route and a key node for liquefied natural gas (LNG) passage. Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures prices climbed to their highest level since April on Tuesday, and market sensitivity to supply disruptions continues to rise. (5) Rabobank’s energy strategy team warned that the already tight global liquefied natural gas supply and demand balance is compounded by the strait disturbances and weak Qatari exports. If Europe cannot increase imports through alternative transportation arrangements, its winter inventory buffer will be extremely limited.

19:08:11

[The national average price of live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, up 8.3% from the previous week.] According to monitoring of 500 county-level markets and collection points across the country, in the second week of July (collection date July 9), the prices of live pig products, chicken, commercial chicks, beef, and mutton increased week-on-week, while egg prices in major producing provinces decreased week-on-week, and prices of live sheep, raw milk, and feed products remained unchanged week-on-week. 1. The national average price of piglets was 22.43 yuan/kg, up 3.7% from the previous week and down 37.8% year-on-year. Piglet prices rose in 25 provinces including Shanghai, Liaoning, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hunan, while they fell in Qinghai, Hubei, Yunnan, and Guizhou. Prices were higher in South China at 24.49 yuan/kg, and lower in Southwest China at 21.19 yuan/kg. 2. The national average price of live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, up 8.3% from the previous week and down 24.8% year-on-year. Live pig prices rose in all 30 monitored provinces nationwide. Prices were higher in South China at 11.91 yuan/kg, and lower in Northwest China at 10.68 yuan/kg. The national average pork price was 20.62 yuan/kg, up 4.0% from the previous week and down 19.0% year-on-year. Pork prices rose in all 30 monitored provinces nationwide. Prices were higher in South China at 23.84 yuan/kg, and lower in Northeast China at 17.92 yuan/kg. (Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)

19:02:12

[Inflation Data and Fed Officials Take Center Stage, Market Volatility Risks Rise Sharply on Tuesday] ⑴ Tuesday will see a double dose of data and speeches impacting the US financial markets. The June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released at 18:00 Beijing time, but market focus will be on the June Consumer Price Index report released at 20:30. ⑵ The Treasury Department will announce the issuance sizes of 4-week, 8-week, and 17-week Treasury bonds at 23:00 Beijing time, estimated at $100 billion, $95 billion, and $72 billion respectively. Following this, $95 billion in 6-week Treasury bills will be auctioned at 23:30, raising concerns about short-term supply pressure. ⑶ Regarding inflation data, influenced by the temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East during the statistical period, the market expects overall CPI to decline by 0.1% month-on-month, while core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month. However, the lagged effects of supply chain bottlenecks may limit the decline. (4) Before the escalation of the situation in Iran, producer price increases had already consistently outpaced consumer price increases, putting pressure on profit margins in sectors such as technology. This cost transmission may keep core inflation sticky in June, and high service prices are also a key variable constraining an overall decline. (5) Speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be held throughout the day: Chairman Warsh will attend a House hearing at 22:00 Beijing time; Governors Barr and Cook, and Vice Chairman Bowman will successively express their views on artificial intelligence and financial inclusion; Chicago Fed President Goolsby will participate in a Q&A session in the early morning. The mixed stances of hawks and doves may exacerbate the market's repricing of the policy path.

18:54:11

[Strait of Hormuz Blockade Order Sparks Further Turmoil in Crude Oil Market] ⑴ The Trump administration yesterday signaled a renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East, announcing the resumption of the blockade of Iranian ports and plans to impose a 20% surcharge on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This move could directly push up global oil and gas transportation costs and energy prices. ⑵ As the strait handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade, market concerns that supply chain disruptions will amplify the supply-demand imbalance during the summer peak energy season led to a widening of the risk premium in crude oil futures and a significant increase in short-term volatility of energy assets. ⑶ The ceasefire agreement reached last month between the US and Iran, once hailed as a "major achievement" by the US, has now been redefined as a "test." This policy reversal has led investors to question the geopolitical risk pricing framework, resulting in a concentrated release of risk aversion in the closing session. ⑷ On the same day, a federal judge harshly criticized the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for allegedly manipulating the court. The internal power struggles within the judicial system increased the cumulative effect of policy uncertainty, causing risk assets to rise and then fall under this double pressure. (5) From a trading psychology perspective, the market has a history of reacting to the Hormuz theme, but this time, coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the fee collection mechanism, short covering and trend-following funds may create a short-term tug-of-war. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the US energy sector will release strategic reserves to stabilize price expectations.

18:46:14

[New York State Halts Construction of Large Data Centers for One Year; Anti-AI Infrastructure Sentiment Spreads to State Level Across the Nation] ⑴ New York Governor Josh Hozul's office announced on Tuesday that it would sign an executive order effective immediately, suspending the construction of large data centers with power consumption of 50 megawatts or more for up to one year. This move aims to buy the state government time to develop a new regulatory framework that balances environmental protection and grid capacity. ⑵ New York State thus becomes the first state-level administrative entity in the nation to implement such a suspension. Previously, similar bans were limited to dozens of cities and counties, but several state legislatures have introduced related bills, indicating that local community resistance to the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is evolving from sporadic resistance to institutionalized control. ⑶ The core logic of the opposition is that the massive power consumption of large data centers will exacerbate peak grid loads, driving up utility costs for residents and small businesses. In some districts, voters have even been pushing for the recall of politicians who support data center development, and political pressure is forcing policymakers to reassess the balance between computing power expansion and energy equity. (4) From the perspective of industry impact, the one-year suspension period will cause planning uncertainty for approved projects, and potential developers' site selection strategies may accelerate the shift to states with more relaxed regulatory environments such as Texas and Ohio. The focus will be on whether the New York State Public Utilities Regulatory Agency can introduce a stable long-term framework within the time limit, and whether other densely populated states will follow suit and introduce similar administrative constraints.

18:44:15

[Float glass and soda ash markets continue their weak trend; downstream demand struggles to offset inventory pressure] ⑴ On Tuesday, the domestic 5mm float glass market experienced regional differentiation and overall pressure. Prices for some small-plate products in the Shahe region of North China softened, with traders cautious about restocking. Manufacturers in Central China lowered their prices by 10 yuan/ton, but sales were sluggish. In South China, affected by the rainy season, downstream buyers only maintained immediate demand. In East China, some companies offered slight discounts due to inventory pressure. Other regions maintained stable prices, but sales varied. ⑵ The current weak end-user demand shows no signs of improvement. Most glass manufacturers continue their inventory accumulation trend, and market sentiment is unlikely to improve. Although price adjustments in various regions are limited, they reflect the continued weakening of sellers' bargaining power during the supply-demand rebalancing process. Downstream buyers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach to lower prices. (3) The soda ash market fluctuated weakly in tandem. In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash was 1170-1260 yuan/ton, and for dense soda ash, 1250-1320 yuan/ton. In East China, light soda ash was 1080-1570 yuan/ton, and dense soda ash, 1210-1320 yuan/ton. Limited changes at the plant level kept supply high, while downstream acceptance of high prices was low, with transactions mainly consisting of small, immediate orders. Overall, the trading atmosphere was relatively subdued. (4) The core contradiction of the weak performance of both products lies in the slower-than-expected recovery of demand in the real estate chain, coupled with the slow progress of float glass cold repairs and the continued pressure on inventory reduction from high soda ash operating rates. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether glass production lines will undergo unexpected cold repairs and whether the scale of summer maintenance for soda ash can alleviate the supply-demand imbalance in stages.

18:44:12

[Nordic power contracts rise to over two-year high, drought and geopolitical risks combine to create a premium] ⑴ On Tuesday, Nordic baseload power contracts for the first quarter continued their upward trend, rising €0.90 or 1.1% to €80 per megawatt-hour. This followed Monday's record high since December 2023, with the previous year's contract also rising €1 to €51 per megawatt-hour. ⑵ The core variable driving this upward trend is the continued tightening of hydrological conditions. Nordic water reserves have been in negative territory since late December, currently 23.76 billion kilowatt-hours below normal levels. While this is slightly less than Monday's 24.09 billion kilowatt-hour deficit, the pressure on reservoir storage has not substantially eased. Meteorologists predict that dry and warm weather will persist in western regions until the end of this week, making the short-term supply outlook pessimistic. (3) External geopolitical risks simultaneously strengthened bullish sentiment. The US's naval blockade of Iran and the resumption of military strikes raised concerns about the smooth flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz. Dutch TTF natural gas wholesale prices rose to their highest level since April on Tuesday, indirectly supporting the central electricity price through marginal generation cost transmission. (4) German annual electricity contracts for the following year rose 1.7% to €101.30 per megawatt-hour, while the European carbon allowance benchmark contract rose slightly by 0.5% to €80.5 per ton. The overall energy chain showed a coordinated strengthening trend. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of actual rainfall in Northern Europe over the next two weeks on the pace of reservoir replenishment, and whether the situation in the Middle East will further push up natural gas import costs. If these two driving factors continue to resonate, the Nordic first-quarter contract may test the €90 mark.

18:40:11

[Ukraine's 2026 New Grain Harvest Progresses Steadily; Divergence in Winter Wheat and Spring Barley Yields Reflects Differences in Planting Structure] ⑴ The Ukrainian Ministry of Economy disclosed on Tuesday that, as of that day, 763,000 hectares of early grain crops had been harvested nationwide, with a total threshing volume of 3.112 million tons of various grains. Winter wheat accounted for 280,700 hectares with a yield of 1.113 million tons, while spring barley accounted for 417,700 hectares with a yield of 1.842 million tons. Peas and rapeseed contributed 156,000 tons and 149,000 tons respectively. ⑵ In terms of yield, winter wheat led with 3.96 tons per hectare, followed by spring barley at 4.41 tons, peas at 2.42 tons, and rapeseed at 1.94 tons. The overall average grain yield was 4.07 tons per hectare. The yield difference between winter wheat and spring barley reflects that winter-sown crops received more favorable rainfall and temperature conditions during their growing season. (3) Official estimates previously projected total grain production of approximately 60 million tons in 2026, roughly the same as in 2025. If weather remains stable during the subsequent harvest season, this target is achievable. However, the logistical efficiency of the Black Sea grain transport corridor and the potential threat of conflict to agricultural infrastructure remain key variables in realizing production targets. (4) From a global supply perspective, the timing of Ukraine's new grain harvest will directly impact export prices for wheat and barley in the Black Sea region. Given the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East driving up energy and fertilizer costs, and Trump's tariff rhetoric exacerbating trade policy uncertainty, the market's ability to absorb increased supply from Eastern Europe may be marginally weakened. It is necessary to monitor the actual yield adjustments during the peak harvest season and the rate of port inventory accumulation.

18:36:12

[European stocks were under pressure across the board, but the energy sector bucked the trend and led the gains; geopolitical conflicts triggered a comprehensive repricing of expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank] ⑴ On Tuesday, European stocks generally fell under the impact of the third consecutive night of military strikes by the US and Iran and Trump's announcement to restart the blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% toll on other transit goods. The FTSE 100 in London fell 0.5%, the German DAX dropped 0.55%, the French CAC declined 0.9%, and the Italian and Spanish stock indices also closed down 0.7% and 1.07% respectively. However, energy giants BP and Shell bucked the trend and rose 3% and 1.7% respectively, boosted by soaring oil prices. (2) Brent crude oil rose more than 3% intraday, breaking through $86 per barrel, marking the first time it has reached the $85 mark since the ceasefire agreement. The Dutch TTF natural gas benchmark contract rose nearly 3% to €52.8 per megawatt-hour, while the UK natural gas contract climbed 3.3% to 128.27 pence per tsum, a three-month high. Rising energy costs are being forcefully transmitted to the interest rate pricing system through inflation expectations. (3) The money market is currently fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England in September, with a possible follow-up hike before the end of the year. The ECB is also fully pricing in a similar rate hike in September, and expectations for another rate hike in December are accumulating. Even during the ceasefire earlier this month, the market's combined pricing for the two central banks was insufficient for a full rate hike. Geopolitical risk premiums have completely reshaped expectations for policy paths. (4) On the data front, the US CPI and Warsh's congressional testimony are about to be released. Strategists at BNY Mellon warned that inflation data will remain highly volatile and the market will fluctuate accordingly. Meanwhile, news that China's crude oil imports in June plummeted by 41.3% to a near ten-year low adds uncertainty to the demand side. If core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the spreads on bonds in peripheral European countries may widen further to the key threshold that triggers systemic hedging behavior.

18:34:13

[German Two-Year Bond Yield Surges to New High Since July Last Year; Middle East Conflict Ignites ECB Rate Hike Expectations Repricing] ⑴ On Tuesday, the yield on German two-year government bonds touched 2.7985% intraday, the highest level since July 2024, before closing up 5 basis points at 2.77%. The money market simultaneously pushed up its December deposit rate forecast for the European Central Bank to 2.68%, fully pricing in a September rate hike, a cumulative upward revision of over 40 basis points from the current 2.25%. ⑵ The driving logic clearly points to the military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices to a four-week high, and rising energy costs are directly impacting the Eurozone's inflation outlook, forcing the market to reassess the ECB's policy path. The benchmark yield on German ten-year bonds also rose 2.5 basis points to 3.10%, approaching the 3.20% peak reached in mid-May, the highest since 2011. (3) Southern European bonds are under more significant pressure. The Italian 10-year yield jumped 5.5 basis points to 3.92%, widening the spread with German bonds to 80 basis points, a significant increase from the pre-conflict level of 63 basis points. The spread between French and German bonds also remained around 80.50 basis points, having touched 84 basis points last week—the widest level since October 2025. Investors' concerns about France potentially failing to meet its fiscal deficit target continued to exert pressure. (4) BNY Mellon strategist Tam warned that inflation data will remain highly volatile, and Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled on Monday that a "near-term rate hike" would be necessary if data continues to exceed expectations. The market is holding its breath awaiting Warsh's congressional testimony and US CPI data. If core inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the German bond yield curve may further flatten, and if the Italian-German spread breaks through 85 basis points, it will trigger a new round of systemic shorting strategies on bonds of peripheral European countries.

18:34:11

[US Treasury yields widen as rate hike probability jumps; 2-year yield hits 17-month high above 4.3%] ⑴ On Tuesday, the US Treasury market experienced a new round of selling pressure. The 2-year Treasury yield briefly broke through the 4.3% mark during the session, reaching its highest level since February 2025, before slightly retreating to 4.284% at the close. The 10-year yield also rose slightly to above 4.62%, with the steepening yield curve reflecting the market's repricing of the Fed's short-term policy path. ⑵ The driving factor was the surge in oil prices triggered by the escalation of the military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. The upward risk of energy costs directly increased the market's expectation of a rate hike at the Fed's policy meeting in two weeks. This figure jumped from 27% a week ago to 41%, the most significant single-day upward revision of probability since Warsh took office as chairman. (3) The timing of the renewed US-Iran conflict coincides with Warsh's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. This geopolitical shock may shift lawmakers' focus from independence to inflation response strategies. If Warsh hints in his testimony that he doesn't rule out raising interest rates, short-term yields could further approach the psychological threshold of 4.5%. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, previously accumulated long-term positions are being forced to exit at a loss. Meanwhile, concerns about global trade frictions triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, coupled with energy supply shocks, are creating a combined effect. The focus will be on whether Wednesday's CPI data strengthens expectations of an interest rate hike, and whether Warsh provides clearer quantitative guidance on the policy path during his Senate Banking Committee hearing.

18:32:12

[Yen's Depreciation Pressure Remains Unresolved This Year; Nuveen Bets on Two Rate Hikes by the Bank of Japan in September and December] ⑴ Nuveen analyst Laura Cooper points out that the Japanese authorities' foreign exchange intervention failed to reverse the yen's decline, and the policymakers' cautious attitude towards further market intervention is shifting the main responsibility for curbing depreciation to the Bank of Japan, forcing it to consider a more aggressive pace of monetary policy normalization. ⑵ Cooper emphasizes in the report that as long as the US-Japan interest rate differential remains at its current wide level, the Bank of Japan's gradual rate hikes will have a very limited effect on boosting the yen's exchange rate. Given the government's priority on overheated economic recovery, a central bank that continues to tighten policy but cannot prevent currency depreciation may face credibility risks due to its policy framework being constrained by political considerations. ⑶ Based on the above logic, Nuveen expects the Bank of Japan to implement rate hikes in September and December respectively, attempting to narrow the interest rate gap through faster rate increases. However, the USD/JPY pair was still just a step away from the 40-year peak of 162.83 reached on July 1st on Tuesday. (4) From a market psychology perspective, short yen positions are fluctuating between the threat of intervention and expectations of interest rate hikes. If the Bank of Japan fails to release a more hawkish signal than the market is pricing in, the carry trade logic will continue to suppress the yen's upside potential. The key variables going forward are whether expectations for the Fed's policy path will ease and whether the Bank of Japan will adjust the yield curve control parameters ahead of schedule at its July meeting.

18:14:14

[Oil Tanker Attacked by Missile at Southern Exit of Strait of Hormuz, Shipping Safety Alerts Rise, Pushing Up Regional Risk Premiums] ⑴ The UK Maritime Trade and Operations Authority (MMAO) reported on Tuesday that an oil tanker was attacked by a missile about 13 nautical miles southeast of Lima, Oman, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was heading south on its route at the time of the attack. Authorities have launched an investigation and advised nearby vessels to exercise caution and report suspicious activity. ⑵ This attack occurred against the backdrop of ongoing fighting between the US and Iran. Although the ceasefire agreement in April and the memorandum of understanding in June briefly eased tensions, the recent spate of tanker attacks indicates a sharp deterioration in the safety environment for navigation through the strait. Shipowners and charterers will face higher war risk premiums and the alternative cost of circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope. ⑶ Combined with the previous incidents of two UAE oil tankers being hit by Iranian cruise missiles, the shipping insurance market may further increase surcharges for transit through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. The actual increase in freight rates will gradually be passed on to energy and commodity import prices through the supply chain. (4) From the perspective of trading psychology, the surge in spot premiums and the positive turn of time spreads have already factored in some risk premiums. However, if there is a substantial blockade of shipping lanes or attacks for several consecutive days, the price difference between Brent and Dubai crude oil may narrow further, and Asian refineries' willingness to purchase alternative West African or North American light crude oil will also increase.

18:14:11

[Middle East benchmark crude oil spot premium jumps over $2.70 in a single day; shipping insurance premium in the Strait of Hormuz may be repriced] ⑴ On Tuesday, spot prices for Middle East benchmark crude oil varieties Oman, Dubai, and Murban jumped sharply from a discount to a premium, marking the first time in about a month that the market has returned to a spot premium, with spot prices higher than forward prices. This directly reflects the expectation that escalating geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz will squeeze spot supply. ⑵ Iran's missile attacks on two oil tankers belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company directly threaten transshipment operations along the coasts of the UAE and Oman. Trade and shipping sources say the latest developments may make shipowners cautious about entering the Gulf to load crude oil. Chartered vessels are closely monitoring the situation, while refineries are beginning to worry about whether contracted cargoes can be delivered on time in the coming weeks. (3) The spot trading window was highly active, with the cash Dubai premium over swap contracts surging by $2.74 to $1.52 per barrel in a single day. Vitol sold a cargo of Omani crude oil for September loading to Trafigura, and the bid-ask spread narrowed significantly, indicating that traders are paying higher premiums for potential disruption risks. (4) From a psychological perspective, previously accumulated short positions were forced to be covered by the sudden geopolitical shock. The concerns about global trade friction triggered by Trump's tariff remarks, coupled with the Straits toll plan, created a policy synergy effect. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the US-Iran military standoff escalates further to a critical point of blockade, and whether Asian refineries activate emergency procurement plans to hedge against supply chain disruption risks.

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