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2026-07-14 Tuesday

2026-07-19

23:02:16

US June Cleveland Fed CPI Month-on-Month Rate

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

22:02:11

[CPI Storm Shakes Currency Volatility, Dollar Plunge Hides Middle East Risks] ⑴ Implied volatility rose slightly at the opening of the currency market on Tuesday, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and Brent crude oil prices breaking through the $84 mark continued to put pressure on risk sentiment. ⑵ Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned on Monday evening that a rate hike would be necessary in the near future if CPI data showed signs of overheating. This statement pushed inflation data to a policy watershed and increased volatility premiums for G10 currencies. ⑶ The one-month implied volatility of the euro against the dollar rebounded to 5.65 from a low of 4.9 reached last week. Overnight volatility contracts also made up for the previously missing premium, eliminating the pricing bias risk mentioned on Monday. ⑷ After the data was released, both overall CPI and core CPI were lower than expected. US Treasury yields and the dollar immediately turned downwards, compressing expectations of a rate hike. Implied volatility fell in tandem, with the one-month volatility of the euro against the dollar retreating to around 5.2, and the decline in short-term contracts being more significant. (5) However, the market's relief may only be temporary. The risks of a full-scale escalation of the Middle East conflict and continued high oil prices remain unresolved, and rising energy costs will be passed on to end users through transportation and input price channels. (6) If shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, inflationary pressures previously eased by CPI cooling may reignite. However, since actual volatility has not yet been realized, implied volatility of options remains low, meaning that the cost of hedging foreign exchange risk remains relatively low.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4016.36

40.10

(1.01%)

XAG

55.884

0.395

(0.71%)

CONC

81.77

3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

88.08

3.22

(3.80%)

USD

100.759

0.039

(0.04%)

EURUSD

1.1438

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

1.3455

-0.0022

(-0.17%)

USDCNH

6.7769

0.0044

(0.06%)