2026-05-26 Tuesday
2026-05-30
10:47:38
[Global Natural Gas Market Closely Monitors Weather Variables: Strait of Hormuz Closed for Nearly Three Months, LNG Prices May Rise Another 50%] (1) The Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely closed for nearly three months, disrupting about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, but this has not triggered an extreme price surge, mainly due to weak demand during the off-season. However, analysts warn that if the strait remains largely closed, LNG prices may rise by another 50% by August. Currently, LNG is flowing to Asia, where prices are higher, and US shipments originally destined for Europe have been diverted to Asia. (2) With summer high temperatures combined with the El Niño weather pattern, temperatures in East Asia (Japan and South Korea) are expected to be above normal (about 1.5°C higher in Japan and 0.5-1°C higher in South Korea), and air conditioning demand will push up electricity load. Japan is facing a heat wave, and spot electricity prices have soared to their highest level since 2022, and its purchasing flexibility may significantly impact the LNG market. In addition, El Niño will also lead to drought in India and reduced hydropower in South America, further boosting LNG demand. (3) Europe's situation is not optimistic: low hydropower water levels and declining river levels are affecting nuclear power, and there is enormous pressure to replenish reserves before winter. Executives at Statoil warned that there is simply not enough physical natural gas, and the situation becomes more critical with each day the conflict continues. If Asian demand continues to recover, Europe will face an even more intense LNG competition, and prices may rise sharply.
10:36:54
[Russian Import Replacement Ka-226T Helicopter Completes Maiden Flight, Equipped with New Russian-Made VK-650V Engine] (1) According to the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ka-226T helicopter, which is a complete import replacement and equipped with a new Russian-made VK-650V engine, has successfully completed its maiden flight. Previously, this model used the French Safran Ares 2G1 turboshaft engine. (2) Russian Helicopters Holding Company has begun flight testing of the import replacement version. During the tests, the aircraft demonstrated good stability and controllability, and the new power plant operated normally and coordinated stably with the various systems of the helicopter. (3) In addition to the new engine, the aircraft is also equipped with new avionics, control systems, airborne circuits, and other Russian-made components. The Ka-226T can perform passenger transport, cargo transport, patrol, search and rescue, and medical evacuation missions. Its modular design allows it to change its layout within 45 minutes.
10:20:52
A chart showing the latest China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) data (May 26, 2026): The 3128B cotton price index was 17,486 yuan/ton (3128B is the benchmark for cotton futures delivery recognized by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange), up 8 yuan/ton, or 0.05%. The 2227B cotton price index was 15,927 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, and the 2129B cotton price index was 17,781 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, or 0.03%. FX678's specially created chart provides a summary of the latest 30 trading days of the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index). (The China Cotton Price Index is published once per trading day, quoting prices in three denominations: 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) stipulates that the benchmark delivery commodity for cotton futures is domestic cotton of '3128B' grade. The spot market cotton transaction price needs to be converted to the price of 3128B cotton using a specific formula. For example, research reports will state the price of cotton from a certain origin, and then calculate its equivalent price in 3128B.)
10:12:00
【Short-term trading advice for spot gold: range-bound trading, buy on dips and sell on rallies】 (1) Reasons for analysis: The US dollar index stopped falling due to the rebound of risk aversion, and the US Treasury yield remained high, which put some pressure on gold. However, the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates has not completely subsided, and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation continues to support the price of gold. Technical analysis shows that gold has strong support around $4,500. (2) Key focus: US Treasury yield, US dollar index, geopolitical situation, US PCE price index (3) Resistance: 4,580, 4,600, 4,650 (4) Support: 4,500, 4,480, 4,450;
10:11:58
【Short-term trading advice for US crude oil: range-bound trading, sell on rallies and buy on dips】 (1) Reasons for analysis: The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, the ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have not yet been fully finalized, and the market remains vigilant about the supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The short-term stabilization of the US dollar index limits the rise in oil prices, but the expectation of global summer demand and the expectation of declining inventories still support WTI. Technically, the structure of the fluctuation above $90 is maintained. (2) Key focus: geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index, US PCE price index (3) Resistance: 95.00, 96.00, 98.00 (4) Support: 90.00, 88.00, 86.00
10:07:43
[Canadian Prime Minister Calls for Independent Inquiry into the Treatment of Civilians on the Global Resilience Flotilla to Gaza] Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke by phone with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the 25th, calling for an independent investigation into the treatment of civilians aboard the "Global Resilience Flotilla" bound for Gaza. According to a press release from the Prime Minister's Office, Carney reiterated that the appalling treatment of civilians, including Canadian citizens, on the flotilla was unacceptable. He strongly condemned the remarks made by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gwer, emphasizing that the protection of all civilians and the upholding of human dignity must be implemented at all times. Carney said the humanitarian situation in Gaza was "catastrophic" and called for the immediate restoration of unimpeded humanitarian aid access. He reiterated Canada's opposition to Israel's expansion of illegal settlements, violence in West Bank settlements, and violence against Palestinian civilians. Carney also stated that Canada firmly supports the "two-state solution," advocating for an independent, prosperous, and territorially complete Palestinian state that coexists peacefully and securely with Israel. (Xinhua)
09:54:04
[Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon: AI Will Not Cause Job Doomsday, It Will Create New Jobs and Increase Productivity] (1) In a New York Times commentary, Solomon stated that the fears about AI causing "job doomsday and mass unemployment" have been exaggerated. He believes that AI will not destroy jobs on a catastrophic scale, but will instead increase worker productivity, shift employees to higher value-added tasks, and create new jobs around the management, implementation, verification, and regulation of AI systems. (2) He acknowledged that the labor market will face shocks, but pointed out that the US economy has absorbed technological shocks many times in the past, with overall employment and living standards continuing to improve. For example, this year alone, hyperscale cloud service companies plan to invest $700 billion in capital expenditures, which has already led to a surge in jobs in the construction industry. (3) Solomon cited predictions from Goldman Sachs economists that AI may automate 25% of current working hours in the next decade, and white-collar industries such as banking, law, accounting, software development, and customer service will face the biggest impact.
09:37:15
[US-Iran Conflict Pushes Up Oil Prices, Gold Price Falls Over $30] 1. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, with spot gold dropping as much as 0.7% to below $4540. As of 09:35, it touched a low of $4537.22 per ounce, down more than $30 from Monday's closing price, as a new round of US military strikes against Iran pushed up oil prices and exacerbated market concerns about persistently high inflation and interest rates. 2. Although Iranian negotiators have traveled to Doha to meet with the US on ending the war, the US has still carried out defensive strikes on southern Iran, including mine-laying boats and missile sites. Brent crude oil rose more than 2% in early Asian trading. 3. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of a Fed rate hike before December to rise slightly to 54%, compared to about 48% at Monday's close. 4. Amid high geopolitical tensions, diplomatic contacts continue. Iran's chief negotiator and foreign minister have arrived in Doha to meet with the Qatari prime minister on a potential agreement with the US to end the war. Both sides stated that progress had been made on a memorandum of understanding giving negotiators 60 days to finalize a deal. Reports indicate that, under possible agreement terms, Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and cease collecting tolls.
09:37:08
【India's High Temperatures and Unrelenting Nights: Power Shortages Worsen, 90% of Households in Uttar Pradesh Experience Daily Power Outages】 (1) Millions of people in India are facing the predicament of persistent high temperatures at night. For eight of the past ten years, the average minimum temperature from March to May has been above the long-term average; the Indian Meteorological Department has warned that the minimum temperature across the country will once again be abnormal this summer. The rising temperatures have led to a surge in electricity consumption, with both daytime and nighttime electricity demand reaching record levels. Power shortages have occurred in some areas, and coupled with overload and insufficient grid maintenance, power outages have occurred in many places. (2) Daytime electricity demand is partially maintained by solar power generation, but the pressure on power supply is even greater at night. The war in Iran has disrupted the supply of liquefied natural gas, leading to a decline in the utilization rate of natural gas power plants, further exacerbating the problem. (3) One of the hardest-hit areas is Uttar Pradesh. Surveys show that 93% of households in the state experience daily power outages, with some areas experiencing outages of up to eight hours. The daytime high temperature in the city of Banda has repeatedly approached 48 degrees Celsius, while the nighttime low temperature has been hovering around 35 degrees Celsius for a long time, far exceeding the dangerous threshold for human health.
09:29:20
[Ministry of Commerce: Online Retail Sales of Smart Glasses and Humanoid Robots Grew by 175.2% and 20.6% Respectively in April] The head of the E-commerce Department of the Ministry of Commerce introduced the development of e-commerce in my country from January to April 2026. According to business big data monitoring, online retail sales of agricultural products nationwide increased by 12.2% from January to April, while e-commerce transaction volumes of key monitored metal products and chemical products increased by 34.8% and 12.2% respectively. E-commerce has a strong traffic-driving effect, driving the rapid development of service industries such as tourism and catering. According to business big data monitoring, online sales of tourism and catering industries increased by 33.2% and 20% respectively from January to April. Online retail sales of smart mobility exoskeletons increased by 785.5% from January to April. Recently, consumer-grade embodied smart devices have experienced rapid growth, with online retail sales of smart glasses and humanoid robots increasing by 175.2% and 20.6% respectively in April. Global merchandise sales on key monitored cross-border e-commerce import platforms increased by 4.3% from January to April. Online retail sales of Thai durian, UAE beverages, and Italian casual pants increased by 344.8%, 78.6%, and 22.8% respectively. (Ministry of Commerce)
09:28:03
Overview of CNY HIBOR and its changes: According to FX678, as of May 26, 2026, most CNY HIBOR rates remained unchanged across different periods (as shown in the table, rates remained unchanged for 7 periods). The largest change was in the overnight CNY HIBOR rate: a decrease of 2 basis points. As shown in the updated data, the overnight onshore CNY HIBOR was 1.34%, down 2 basis points; the 1-week rate was 1.41%, unchanged; the 2-week rate was 1.41%, unchanged; the 1-month rate was 1.42%, unchanged; the 2-month rate was 1.56%, unchanged; the 3-month rate was 1.58%, up 1 basis point; the 6-month rate was 1.67%, unchanged; the 9-month rate was 1.69%, unchanged; and the 1-year onshore CNY HIBOR was 1.70%, unchanged. (BP = basis points)
09:26:36
[US Strikes Iranian Military Targets, Brent Crude Rises Nearly 2%] 1. In early Asian trading on Tuesday, Brent crude futures rose nearly 2% to $98.21 per barrel from Monday's close, while US crude rose 1.7% to $91.85 per barrel. This followed the US military strikes in southern Iran, which it described as "self-defense" and stated that the ceasefire agreement with Iran remained in effect. 2. Due to the Memorial Day holiday in the US on Monday, the crude oil market did not settle on Monday. 3. The US military confirmed that the strikes targeted several targets in southern Iran, including ships attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites. The operation aimed to "protect our forces from threats from Iranian forces." Earlier media reports indicated explosions in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and along the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Since the outbreak of the war, Iran has effectively cut off almost all non-Iranian vessels' access to and from the Persian Gulf, disrupting approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas transportation and driving up energy prices. 5. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, diplomatic contacts continue. Iran's chief negotiator and foreign minister have arrived in Doha to meet with the Qatari prime minister to discuss a potential agreement with the United States to end the war. Both sides have indicated progress on a memorandum of understanding giving negotiators 60 days to finalize a deal. Reports suggest that under possible agreement terms, Iran would clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and cease charging transit fees. 6. Analysts point out that traders are heavily betting that oil tankers long stranded in the Strait of Hormuz will finally be able to pass through once a diplomatic breakthrough is achieved. 7. Actual shipping data shows that three liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers have recently passed through the Strait of Hormuz, bound for Pakistan, China, and India respectively; in addition, a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude oil, which had been stranded for nearly three months, is also en route to China. 8. Meanwhile, US President Trump has again demanded that Iran hand over its enriched uranium to the United States for destruction. This tough stance reminds the market that the agreement still risks collapsing at the last minute, as was the case in the previous five attempts. Some market analysts say this is a stark reminder that the agreement could still fall through.
09:21:32
[G7 May Not Issue Joint Communiqué for Second Consecutive Year] The G7 summit will be held in Evian, France, in mid-June. According to Japanese sources on the 24th, the summit may not issue a joint communiqué to avoid exposing the deepening divisions between the United States and other member states. Several officials stated that the G7 has not yet consulted on a comprehensive statement, and following last year's summit in Canada, the G7 may not issue a joint communiqué for the second consecutive year. To maintain international coordination, the G7 plans to issue outcome documents on specific areas such as securing key mineral supply chains. This reflects the difficulty in bridging differences within the G7, particularly between the United States and other member states, especially on issues like free trade. Meanwhile, divisions also exist within the G7 regarding the war with Iran. From the 18th to the 19th of this month, the G7 finance ministers met in Paris, France. Several G7 member states expressed disappointment with the United States and Israel's military action against Iran without considering the economic impact. They believe that in the event of a conflict, a blockage in the Strait of Hormuz is entirely foreseeable. (CCTV)
09:16:04
On May 26, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was as follows (2/2): RMB/South African Rand: 2.3940, down 50.00 points; RMB/Korean Won: 222.6500, up 3.00 points; RMB/UAE Dirham: 0.5399, up 2.90 points; RMB/Saudi Riyal: 0.5516, up 2.70 points; RMB/Hungarian Forint: 44.9790, down 998.99 points; RMB/Polish Złoty: 0.5334, down 4.30 points; RMB/Danish Krone: 0.9430, up 6.00 points; RMB/Swedish Krone: 1.3657, down 17.00 points; RMB/Norwegian Krone: 1.3571, down 32.00 points. The yuan was quoted at 6.7418 against the Turkish lira, up 311.90 points; the yuan was quoted at 2.5349 against the Mexican peso, up 50.00 points; and the yuan was quoted at 4.7818 against the Thai baht, up 17.00 points.
09:16:04
On May 26, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was as follows (1/2): The Swiss Franc was quoted at 8.6984 against the RMB, down 141.00 points; the US Dollar was quoted at 6.8288 against the RMB, down 30.00 points; the Euro was quoted at 7.9233 against the RMB, down 64.00 points; 100 Japanese Yen was quoted at 4.2879 against the RMB, down 26.00 points; the Hong Kong Dollar was quoted at 0.8716 against the RMB, down 5.30 points; the British Pound was quoted at 9.1891 against the RMB, up 63.00 points; the Australian Dollar was quoted at 4.8811 against the RMB, up 61.00 points; the New Zealand Dollar was quoted at 3.9911 against the RMB, down 95.00 points; and the Singapore Dollar was quoted at 5.3317 against the RMB, down 31.00 points. The Canadian dollar was quoted at 4.9288 against the Chinese yuan, down 34.00 points; the yuan was quoted at 0.5801 against the Malaysian ringgit, up 1.70 points; and the yuan was quoted at 10.5281 against the Russian ruble, up 167.00 points.
09:12:34
[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Telecommunications Revenue Reaches 594.1 Billion Yuan in First Four Months, Down 1.7% Year-on-Year] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released its report on the economic operation of the telecommunications industry in the first four months of 2026. In the first four months, telecommunications revenue reached 594.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. The total volume of telecommunications services, calculated at constant prices from the previous year, increased by 8% year-on-year. As of the end of April, the total number of mobile phone users of the three major basic telecommunications enterprises and China Broadcasting Network reached 1.838 billion, a net increase of 10.92 million from the end of last year. Among them, 5G mobile phone users reached 1.262 billion, a net increase of 57.58 million from the end of last year, accounting for 68.7% of all mobile phone users. As of the end of April, the total number of 5G base stations reached 5.009 million, a net increase of 171,000 from the end of last year, accounting for 38.7% of the total number of mobile base stations, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.
09:07:11
[Memory stocks surge, but analysts warn "cycle not dead," new compression technology may disrupt demand] (1) Since the release of ChatGPT triggered huge demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), memory-related stocks in the US and South Korea have risen sharply: Samsung and SK Hynix have surged 114% and 186% respectively year-to-date, while Micron and SanDisk have also risen by more than 140%. Industry executives believe that AI has broken the past boom-bust cycle, and structural supply shortages will support high prices for several years. (2) But market observers warn not to forget the cyclical nature of the market. BlueBox fund managers say that the memory industry often has "huge ups and downs," and every time someone claims that the cycle is over and the industry is shifting to long-term value creation, big problems often arise. In addition, TurboQuant, a new compression method launched by Google's parent company Alphabet, can reduce the memory required for large models by six times, which may structurally reduce the demand for AI chips; Deutsche Bank believes that investors should continue to prepare for AI-related disruptions, but whether the technology will bring about a shift in demand remains to be seen. (3) South Korea's concentration risk is prominent: Samsung and SK Hynix together account for more than 50% of the KOSPI index. Standard Chartered's Global Chief Investment Officer recommends taking profits on some South Korean stocks and shifting towards global diversification. While Nomura remains bullish on two stocks (Samsung with a 20% target price and SK Hynix with a potential doubling), Ranmore's Chief Investment Officer cautions that the industry has historically had mediocre returns on capital, and current share prices assume high prices, high discipline, and high profit margins, urging investors to exercise caution.
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