Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-11-03 Tuesday

2026-11-07

21:55:00

U.S. Redbook Retail Sales Annual Rate for the Week Ending October 26

Previous : 9.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 10.40%

Previous

21:48:49

[Key Moments in the US Midterm Election Voting Day: Control of the House and Senate Remains Unresolved] ⑴ At 06:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, the first warning signs appear: Kentucky Republican Barr's race is tight, indicating early weakness for the Republicans; Indiana's 5th district Republican Spaatz's performance is below expectations, potentially indicating trouble for the Republicans. ⑵ At 07:00 on Wednesday, the results in Florida and Georgia are worth watching. Florida Republican Moody is widely favored, while Georgia Democrat Osoff's significant lead indicates strong Democratic momentum. ⑶ At 07:30 on Wednesday, the crucial Senate race begins. North Carolina Democrat Cooper is favored to overturn the Republican seat; the Brown vs. Heatherd race in Ohio is crucial for the Democratic Senate prospects. ⑷ At 08:00 on Wednesday, early signals appear in the House: the Democrats holding their seat in Florida's 14th district is a warning to the Republicans; progress in the 25th district demonstrates their strength; the South Carolina Senate race is close, potentially foreshadowing a Democratic surge. (5) At 9:00 AM Wednesday, several key indicators are worth watching. Texas Senate Democrat Talariko could pull off a historic comeback, while the flips in Virginia's 1st and 5th districts show a strong Democratic performance. (6) At the same time, Republican losses in Pennsylvania's 1st and New York's 21st districts indicate serious trouble for the Republicans, while the Democratic flip in Kentucky's 6th district could signal an overwhelming victory. (7) At 10:00 AM Wednesday, Senate control becomes the focus. Michigan Democrat Saeed vs. Rogers is a key battleground, Kansas's unexpected Democratic lead may indicate a relatively secure Senate majority, and Iowa's Turek vs. Hinson is also worth watching. (8) At 11:00 AM Wednesday, delayed results will be released. Montana's Bodner challenges Republican frontrunner Alme, and more results from the East Coast may reveal the scale of the Democratic wave. (9) After election night, California's mail-in ballots may delay the House control outcome, the close Maine Senate race may take longer, and Alaska's second-round vote counting may continue for weeks. (10) Early lead may be reversed depending on the vote count for different ballot types; all times are estimates.

21:07:11

[French Bond Market Pressure Spills Out, Global Bond Market Shows Three-Tier Divergence] ⑴ The French bond market has recently experienced a sharp sell-off. The core reason is that the market had previously bet that highly indebted France would significantly benefit from falling oil prices. Following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran in June, French government debt saw its largest inflow of foreign capital that month, and this position is now being rapidly unwound. ⑵ This unwinding of positions will not continue indefinitely, but the process could cause significant damage and has already spread to other highly indebted Eurozone countries. It may worsen further before the European Central Bank intervenes. ⑶ The global bond market is currently exhibiting three phenomena: first, contagion to highly indebted Eurozone countries such as Italy and Spain; second, safe-haven flows to the US; and third, low-debt safe-haven countries such as Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland continuing their outperformance trend this year. ⑷ Looking at 10-year government bond yields, French yields have surged significantly, while other countries can be roughly divided into three categories. ⑸ The most affected countries are mainly Italy, with Spain also appearing vulnerable, its yields rising above average levels as the situation in France escalated. (6) The main safe-haven inflows are to the United States, with Japan also benefiting from the unwinding of yen carry trades. These countries' fiscal policies are not favored by the market, yet they attract safe-haven capital inflows. (7) Safe-haven countries include low-debt nations such as Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. Canada and Australia also exhibit similar characteristics, with their yields consistently below average. (8) The most obvious factor halting the French debt sell-off may be the decline in oil prices, which the United States could achieve by increasing its efforts to prevent the activities of armed vessels in the Strait. (9) However, the impact of the current global debt crisis extends beyond France itself. Japan and the United States have both previously experienced debt problems, and highly indebted governments often attempt to artificially suppress yields. Therefore, debt devaluation trading possesses a structurally sound bullish logic.

21:00:00

Brazil's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI

Previous : 44.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 46.10

Previous

20:40:43

[Tech Giants Rally in AI with Debt, Rising Financing Costs Undeterred] ⑴ Large tech companies continue to flood the bond market, with Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle all preparing billions of dollars in new debt, showing no signs of cooling down the debt-driven boom surrounding artificial intelligence. ⑵ As AI development increasingly relies on borrowed funds, lenders are starting to raise fees, but this doesn't seem to deter companies from continuing to raise capital. ⑶ Alphabet plans to raise €6 billion (approximately $6.7 billion) through its second euro-denominated bond issuance this year, with yields higher than its previous euro-denominated bond issuance in May. ⑷ Meta is reportedly considering issuing another $20 billion in debt, and last week also announced plans to issue up to nearly $100 billion in stock. ⑸ Microsoft stated last week that it expects to raise $25 billion through a bond issuance. ⑹ Oracle has applied to raise $20 billion, half in stock and half in bonds, stating that combined with its cash reserves, it can support its AI business to achieve self-sufficiency by May 2029. (7) Moody's maintained Oracle's rating two notches above junk status on Monday, with a negative outlook, meaning a downgrade is more likely than an upgrade. (8) Alphabet's credit default swaps (CDS) have nearly tripled in the past year, rising to 91.6 basis points last week, meaning a $10 million debt insured for five years would cost $91,600 annually. (9) Microsoft's CDS have nearly doubled, but Oracle's CDS have risen significantly from less than 100 basis points last year to 294.4 basis points. (10) Oracle just told investors last week that it would raise a maximum of $20 billion in new capital market funding by fiscal year 2030, and on Monday applied to raise the full amount. (11) PitchBook corporate bond analyst Atkins said this reflects that the development of artificial intelligence is progressing in real time, rather than according to a predetermined plan. (12) Atkins pointed out that Oracle's February bond coupon rate was 6.7%, while similar bonds now trade at 8.3%, indicating a significant increase in financing costs.

20:39:52

[Crude Oil Price Drop Fails to Transmit to Diesel; Damaged Refining Facilities are Key] ⑴ US diesel futures reacted mildly to Monday's sharp drop in global crude oil prices, with the price of this industrial fuel still more than 100% higher than at the end of 2025. ⑵ This indicates that the key to the current surge in diesel prices lies in damage to global refining infrastructure, rather than a shortage of crude oil supply. ⑶ Analysts typically observe the relationship between prices in different markets through changes in correlation; 1 indicates that prices always move in the same direction, and -1 indicates that they never move in the same direction. ⑷ Charts show that the short-term 20-day rolling correlation between US benchmark diesel futures and Brent crude oil futures has disappeared in the past two months. ⑸ Iranian attacks on refining facilities around the Persian Gulf and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have significantly weakened the ability of both locations to supply diesel to the global market, pushing up global prices. ⑹ The International Energy Agency noted in its October oil market report that global diesel prices have fallen from their record high of over $200 per barrel in September, but the benchmark price is still close to twice the price of crude oil, and also close to twice the pre-crisis level. (7) The International Energy Agency stated that record diesel prices have had widespread economic consequences, pushing up commodity costs and impacting real income, economic activity, and inflation. (8) Further developments need to be monitored to determine whether a renewed and intense conflict between the United States and Iran is possible.

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