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2025-12-15 Monday

2025-12-20

21:30:14

U.S. net export sales for the week ending November 20 - wheat for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 85.04 Forecast : -

Published Value 36.17

Previous

21:30:14

U.S. net export sales for the week ending November 20 - total soybean meal for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 35.79 Forecast : -

Published Value 15.15

Previous

21:30:14

U.S. net export sales for the week ending November 20 - total beef -USDA weekly

Previous : 0.39 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.71

Previous

21:30:13

U.S. net export sales for the week ending November 20 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 238.04 Forecast : -

Published Value 184.32

Previous

21:30:12

U.S. net export sales for the week ending November 20 - soybeans for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 69.56 Forecast : -

Published Value 232.07

Previous

21:30:11

Canada's manufacturing sales monthly rate in October

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : -1.10%

加元 金银
美元

Published Value -1%

Previous

21:30:10

Canada's core CPI for November - seasonally adjusted monthly rate

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

21:30:09

Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

21:30:08

Canada's core CPI year-on-year rate for November - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.90%

Neutral

Published Value 2.90%

Previous

21:30:07

The core CPI monthly rate of the Bank of Canada for November

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.10%

Previous

21:30:05

Canada's core CPI for November - ordinary annual rate

Previous : 2.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

21:30:05

Canada's core CPI for November - truncated adjusted annual rate

Previous : 3% Forecast : 2.90%

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

21:30:04

Canada's core CPI for November - weighted median annual rate

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.90%

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

21:30:04

Canada's unadjusted CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.10%

Neutral

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

21:30:04

Canada's unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for November

Previous : 2.20% Forecast : 2.30%

美元
加元 金银

Published Value 2.20%

Previous

21:30:02

The New York Fed's manufacturing Index for December in the United States

Previous : 18.70 Forecast : 10

金银 石油
美元

Published Value -3.90

Previous

21:15:03

New housing starts in Canada in November

Previous : 23.28 Forecast : 25

Published Value 25.41

Previous

20:59:37

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for Agricultural Products Market, Edible Oil Sector Weakens Overall, Most Commodities Recommended for Short Selling on Rallies] ⑴ The edible oil sector weakened overall. ⑵ Rapeseed oil futures saw a large-scale reduction in open interest in the 01 contract due to unconfirmed news of COFCO's inquiry regarding Canadian rapeseed futures after March, resulting in a lower opening and continued decline. ⑶ Palm oil futures saw a continued decline in Malaysian exports from March 1st to 15th, with import prices also decreasing. ⑷ Soybean oil followed the downward trend of US soybeans. ⑸ In the spot market, the pre-holiday bulk oil purchasing window for vegetable oil brands is nearing its end, and spot prices are generally weaker. ⑹ Specifically, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou was 8550 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil was 8480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9520 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton. (7) From a trading logic perspective, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales declined year-on-year in November, with catering and grain/oil sub-categories declining by 0.6% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. Coupled with the current high inventory levels of edible oils, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (8) Regarding soybean meal, futures have been fluctuating recently. US soybean prices have gradually returned to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, leading to a pullback. (9) Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and ongoing domestic pressure. (10) Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing domestic soybean meal prices to stabilize. (11) Short-term, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (12) Regarding corn, recent price declines have somewhat dampened farmers' reluctance to sell, leading to increased selling activity. However, inventory levels at northern ports remain low year-on-year. (13) The logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains intact. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended after a pullback. (14) Continued monitoring of farmers' selling sentiment is necessary. 12. Regarding live pigs, the recent approaching winter solstice, a peak season for cured meat demand, has led to a relatively strong spot market. Coupled with news of swine disease outbreaks in northern China, spot prices have rebounded somewhat. 13. However, the long-term supply easing pattern remains. It is recommended to short the live pig 03 contract on rallies. 14. Attention should be paid to the slaughtering pace and the peak demand during the winter solstice. 15. Regarding eggs, spot prices have been mainly fluctuating within a range recently. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is currently still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. 16. It is recommended to enter short positions at appropriate times, but the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices should be continuously monitored.

20:58:31

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Energy and Chemical Market, Geopolitical Situation Provides Support but Fundamentals of Most Commodities Remain Weak] ⑴ Regarding crude oil, the recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. The US continues to intervene in related negotiations, but the effects are not obvious, and the possibility of a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely. ⑵ The US is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, and geopolitical uncertainty is supporting oil prices. ⑶ However, crude oil prices have recently encountered pressure and fallen back between the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, while global land and sea inventories remain high, downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels. ⑷ Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑸ Regarding fuel oil, the recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. Related peace talks are still ongoing, but it is unlikely to yield results in the short term, and the probability of a US military strike against Venezuela is increasing. ⑹ The expectation of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil due to sanctions remains, but due to weakening downstream demand, fuel oil prices are expected to follow suit with a downward bias. ⑺ Regarding glass, losses are worsening, and expectations for cold repairs and production conversions in float glass are strengthening, but the market is worried that an early rebound in prices may lead to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans. (8) Moreover, midstream inventories are large, and spot and futures prices have fallen again. (9) Overall, glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, the fundamentals have not yet substantially reversed, midstream inventories are high, and the "low valuation and weak driving force" is obvious. (10) Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. (11) Regarding soda ash, the Alashan Phase II project has been ignited, and new production lines will also be ignited, further highlighting supply and demand pressures. (12) On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers increased by 38,700 tons compared to last Thursday, an increase of 2.59%, and the soda ash operating rate today was 83.42%. (13) Basis offers show that the Hebei warehouse delivery 01 contract is at a discount of 20 yuan, while the Shahe delivered 01 contract is at a premium of 10 yuan. (14) Overall, soda ash can basically achieve a supply and demand balance with the support of maintenance, but the futures market is still suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and the background of overcapacity. (15) Short selling on rallies is recommended. ⒃ Regarding caustic soda, sales of high-grade caustic soda in Shandong remained sluggish on December 15th. Increased inventory led to further price declines. Some companies saw only temporary sales of 32% caustic soda, with low inventory levels prompting price increases. ⒄ Overall, the sharp drop in liquid chlorine prices supported the temporary stability of liquid caustic soda prices, and domestic inventory decreased by 9.46% month-on-month, indicating a slight improvement in supply and demand. ⒅ However, caustic soda remains in a state of high supply and high inventory, with the weak supply situation continuing. Furthermore, the continued decline in alumina prices strengthened expectations of production cuts, and non-aluminum products were in the off-season. ⒆ Caustic soda prices are likely to continue fluctuating at low levels.

20:57:15

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals and New Energy Markets; Macro Sentiment is Positive, Most Commodities Recommended for Buying on Dips] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: After a sharp drop in prices on Friday night, the positive news was fully priced in, but prices rebounded in today's daytime session as sentiment improved. ⑵ Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's dovish stance at its December meeting and expectations of a dovish candidate for the next Fed Chair have led to continued market optimism. ⑶ Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic and imported supplies are limited, but year-end sales have significantly increased, resulting in ample supply in the spot market. ⑷ Strategically, we believe that buying on dips remains the best approach, waiting for market entry opportunities. ⑸ Shanghai Zinc: The macroeconomic environment is also supported by dovish Fed expectations, leading to optimistic market sentiment. ⑹ Fundamentals: Zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, smelter profits are affected, reducing production willingness. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are continuously decreasing, providing support on the supply side, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term. (7) Considering the long-term trend of supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the zinc supply-demand balance tends to have a surplus. The realization of the current surplus expectation still depends on further transmission from the mining to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. (8) Regarding precious metals, prices also experienced a sharp drop in Friday night trading, but rebounded in today's daytime trading as sentiment improved. (9) At the macro level, the Fed's dovish expectations continue to boost market sentiment. (10) In the long term, precious metal prices still have support, and a buy-on-dips strategy is advisable. (11) Prices may continue to fluctuate sharply in the near term; investors should operate cautiously and avoid chasing highs and lows. (12) Regarding alumina, the rebound was significant due to market sentiment, but the fundamentals still maintain a supply surplus situation. (13) Some high-cost enterprises are already facing losses, but there has been no large-scale production cut, and inventories are still accumulating. (14) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the overall surplus situation, and a trend reversal is unlikely in the short term. 12. Short-term traders can consider a rebound-selling strategy, but should pay attention to whether production companies experience loss-making production cuts and be wary of unexpected supply-side shocks. 13. Regarding aluminum and cast aluminum, affected by declining global market risk appetite, they followed the non-ferrous metals sector's decline in Friday night trading. 14. However, given the overall bullish macroeconomic environment both domestically and internationally, coupled with expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged, and the strategy remains primarily to buy on dips. 18. Going forward, attention should be paid to domestic demand and inventory trends.

20:55:50

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Ferrous Metals Market, Cost-Driven Price Fluctuations Dominate Range-Bound Trading] ⑴ In the steel market, while the actual pressure has eased marginally, the expected supply and demand are weak, and upward momentum remains insufficient before full-scale restocking begins. ⑵ Meanwhile, relatively low valuations and gradually strengthening cost support provide downside protection. The rebar 05 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the core fluctuation range likely between 3040 and 3100. ⑶ From a capital structure perspective, the top 20 long positions in the rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contract have seen a more significant increase, with overall position changes signaling a bullish bias. ⑷ In summary, the steel industry's own driving force is relatively limited, and price movements in the short term will likely be mainly anchored to cost fluctuations, with both upward and downward potential constrained. ⑸ Operationally, it is recommended to closely monitor the actual pace and extent of raw material winter stockpiling. ⑹ In the iron ore market, from a practical perspective, pig iron production continues to decline, port inventories continue to accumulate and remain at absolute high levels, putting overall price pressure on the market. (7) From an expectation perspective, steel mills' imported iron ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years. With the winter stockpiling season approaching, the expectation of price support at the bottom is gradually strengthening. (8) In the short term, the iron ore 05 contract may fluctuate within the range of 745-775 yuan. (9) In terms of capital, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of the 05 contract decreased, indicating a more cautious market sentiment. (10) In summary, the iron ore market lacks a clear unilateral driver in the short term, with bullish and bearish factors balancing each other, and the oscillating pattern may continue. (11) In the coking coal market, under the combined influence of policy guidance and low valuations, the market is showing signs of bottoming out and rebounding. (12) From a fundamental perspective, current coal mine production is generally stable, and with the gradual start of winter stockpiling, downstream demand is expected to improve marginally, and futures prices may have bottomed out in stages. (13) In terms of capital, the top 20 positions of the main 05 contract showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions, with the position structure conveying a bullish signal. 14. Operationally, it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after spot prices stabilize. 15. In the coking coal market, environmental protection restrictions in production areas have been largely lifted, and related enterprises are gradually increasing production, leading to a month-on-month increase in coking coal supply. 16. On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, rigid demand is weak, and coupled with the accumulation of inventory at coking plants, the third round of spot price reductions may be implemented this week. 17. In terms of valuation, the current coking coal 01 contract price already reflects expectations of about five rounds of price reductions, while the spot market generally expects only three. 18. The pessimistic expectations for the spot market have been largely priced in, and valuations have entered a relatively low range. 19. Overall, the coking coal market is currently in a game between "low valuation" and "weak driving forces."

20:00:33

Brazil's IBC-BR Economic Activity index monthly rate for October

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value -0.20%

Previous

19:47:10

[China's Intelligent Computing Power to Double in Two Years] According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), my country is systematically advancing the construction and layout of computing power centers, improving the supply capacity and utilization efficiency of intelligent computing resources, and accelerating the construction of a collaborative and efficient nationwide integrated computing power network. The "Action Plan for Interconnection and Interoperability of Computing Power," recently released by the MIIT, proposes to build a computing power interconnection and interoperability platform system to achieve standardized interconnection of public computing power resources from different entities and with different architectures. Li Wei, Deputy Director of the Cloud Computing and Big Data Research Institute of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), stated: "By 2025, the overall system will complete the experimental verification phase. Standardized interfaces and protocols such as computing power identification gateways, high-performance transmission protocols, and heterogeneous computing APIs will demonstrate the feasibility of standardized interconnection of public computing power during the experimental phase. By 2028, a computing power internet with intelligent sensing, real-time discovery, and on-demand access will be formed." International Data Corporation (IDC) predicts that China's intelligent computing power will continue to grow rapidly, increasing by 43% in 2025 compared to 2024, and doubling in 2026. (CCTV)

19:23:16

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) Party Group emphasized at the meeting that 2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, making economic work of great significance. The foreign exchange management department must be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishments," resolutely uphold the "two safeguards," fully implement the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference and the requirements of the National Financial System Work Conference, accurately grasp the "five musts," better coordinate development and security, and closely focus on the main line of preventing risks, strengthening supervision, and promoting high-quality development, striving to build a "more convenient, more open, more secure, and more intelligent" foreign exchange management system and mechanism. The following key tasks will be prioritized: First, focusing on enhancing the driving force and vitality of high-quality development. Deepening the reform of banking foreign exchange business and facilitating cross-border trade and investment, and increasing foreign exchange support for the real economy. Focusing on supporting technological innovation and small and micro enterprises, we will do a good job in the "five major articles" of finance. Deepening the development of the foreign exchange market, improving the efficiency of foreign exchange market resource allocation, and improving enterprise exchange rate risk management services. Actively supporting the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce. Second, steadily expanding high-level institutional opening-up in the foreign exchange field. We will adhere to the principle of both "flexible deregulation" and "effective management," aligning with high-standard international trade and economic rules, and strengthening the supply of high-quality foreign exchange policies. We will deepen the reform of foreign exchange management for foreign direct investment. We will optimize and upgrade foreign exchange management policies in free trade zones and free trade ports. Third, we will maintain the sound operation of the foreign exchange market. We will adhere to the bottom line, strengthen macro-prudential management and expectation guidance in the foreign exchange market, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and maintain a basic balance of international payments. Fourth, we will further strengthen in-process and post-process supervision. We will utilize artificial intelligence, big data, and other technologies to empower intelligent supervision and accurately combat illegal and irregular activities in the foreign exchange field. Fifth, we will improve the management of foreign exchange reserves to ensure the safety, liquidity, and value preservation and appreciation of foreign exchange reserve assets. Sixth, we will strengthen the Party's overall leadership over foreign exchange management. We will persistently promote comprehensive and strict Party governance. We will consolidate and expand the results of the central inspection and rectification. We will promote the normalization and long-term effectiveness of style construction. We will build a high-quality, professional cadre team that is loyal, clean, and responsible. (State Administration of Foreign Exchange)

19:11:50

[Eurozone Bond Yields Fall Ahead Global Central Bank Decision Week, Markets Hold Their Breath] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields edged lower on Monday as markets remained cautious ahead of a packed week of global central bank policy meetings and key US data. ⑵ The yield on the German 10-year bond, the eurozone benchmark, fell 2 basis points to 2.84%. Last week, the yield touched 2.894%, its highest level since mid-March. ⑶ The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) will announce their interest rate decisions on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will do so on Friday. Citigroup expects the ECB to adopt a hawkish stance of holding rates steady, downplaying the impact of missed inflation targets. ⑷ Market pricing indicates that traders anticipate a possible ECB rate cut in 2026, but also believe there is about a 25% probability of a rate hike by December 2026 and about a 50% probability by March 2027. ⑸ Investors are also awaiting US employment data to be released on Tuesday to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 2.5 basis points to 4.17% in London trading. (6) Long-term bond supply pressure remains; the German 30-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 3.46%, after hitting 3.498% last Friday, the highest since July 2011. The market expects Germany to increase its bond issuance next year, and Dutch pension fund reforms will reduce demand for ultra-long-term bonds. (7) The Italian 10-year yield fell 4 basis points to 3.52%. The French 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 3.55%, with a 70 basis point spread over German bonds; the market is focused on the final approval of its 2026 budget.

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