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2026-05-29 Friday

2026-05-30

19:40:08

Chevron CEO: Chevron will not pay tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz to Iran.

19:39:57

Chevron CEO: More pipelines are expected to be built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz

19:37:47

[Iranian Official: Iran's Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a Globally Recognized Fact] On May 29, local time, Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated on social media that Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is a globally recognized fact, and that countries only need to obtain permission, pay fees, and be guided by the Iranian Navy to allow ships to pass. (CCTV)

19:35:51

India's M3 money supply for the week ending May 11

Previous : 12% Forecast : -

Published Value 12%

19:34:54

Romanian President: The Russian consul in the southeastern city of Constanta has been declared persona non grata and the consulate will be closed.

19:32:52

[Brazil's April primary budget surplus exceeded expectations, but the overall deficit widened, and public debt rose to 80.4% of GDP] ⑴ Data released by the Central Bank of Brazil on Friday showed that the primary budget surplus in April was 24.624 billion reais, higher than the 22 billion reais expected in an institutional survey. However, the overall budget deficit was 60.139 billion reais, worse than the expected 50.709 billion reais. ⑵ In the 12 months ending in April, Brazil's primary budget deficit was equivalent to 0.97% of GDP. The total public sector debt as a percentage of GDP in April was 80.4%, slightly higher than the expected 80.3%. ⑶ The net public sector debt as a percentage of GDP in April was 67.4%, higher than the expected 66.9%.

19:32:13

Brazil's net debt as a proportion of GDP in April

Previous : 66.80% Forecast : 66.90%

Published Value 67.40%

19:32:08

The proportion of Brazil's total debt to GDP in April

Previous : 80.10% Forecast : 80.30%

Published Value 80.40%

19:31:51

According to a war report released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian army lost approximately 8,130 soldiers in a special military operation over the past week.

19:31:49

Brazil's nominal budget balance for April

Previous : -1995.39 Forecast : -507.09

Published Value -601.39

19:31:39

Brazil had a basic budget surplus in April

Previous : -806.76 Forecast : 220

Published Value 246.24

19:31:25

[India's Loans Grow 16.2% Year-on-Year, Deposits Rise 12.2%, Credit Expansion Continues but Overall Volume Fluctuates] ⑴ Data released by the Reserve Bank of India on Friday showed that in the two weeks ending May 15, bank loans grew by 16.2% year-on-year, while deposits increased by 12.2%. ⑵ In the two weeks ending May 15, outstanding loans decreased by 238.07 billion rupees to 211.87 trillion rupees, non-food credit decreased by 359.41 billion rupees to 210.71 trillion rupees, and food credit increased by 121.33 billion rupees to 1.16 trillion rupees. ⑶ During the same period, bank deposits decreased by 1.80 trillion rupees to 256.89 trillion rupees.

19:30:47

Ukrainian military: Attacked oil refinery in Russia's Volgograd region

19:29:12

[Buy the rumor, sell the fact: ECB and BOJ rate hikes in June usher in a new tightening cycle; US Treasury yields unlikely to have peaked] ⑴ The market faces the risk of buying the rumor and selling the fact. The progress towards a 60-day framework between the US and Iran appears more like a tactical move to buy time than a final solution. The key issue of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile means that crude oil prices may be anchored in the $80-$90 range or higher. ⑵ Accelerated European defense spending, massive sovereign bond issuance, and continued tightening by the ECB and BOJ should keep global yields high. Combined with persistent inflationary pressures and core inflation indicators far above the Fed's target path, this supports further increases in US Treasury yields and reinforces the belief that the Fed under Warsh will favor tightening rather than returning to easing. ⑶ The ECB's June rate hike was widely anticipated, but more importantly, Eurozone inflation is far above target and fiscal policy is shifting towards expansion. Trillions of euros in new spending will push up German and broader Eurozone government bond yields. The BOJ faces similar pressure, with continued wage growth and sticky inflation supporting further tightening after the June rate hike. (4) The Bank of England will find it increasingly difficult to remain on hold as interest rates continue to rise at the hands of the ECB and the Bank of Japan, facing pressure from higher imported inflation and energy costs. Canada also faces the challenge of strong commodity prices and inflation that is more persistent than expected. (5) The three-month and six-month annualized core PCE trends are 3.7% and 3.3% respectively, 1% higher than the Fed's year-end inflation target. In the current environment, a timely return to the target is mathematically impossible. The global interest rate environment will be less accommodative in the coming quarters, with a gradual acknowledgment that policy rates may need to remain restrictive for a much longer period than the market expects. (6) The Kansas City Fed President warned that the Iranian oil shock will not be temporary, and that inflation is overheated and has been above target for too long. It cannot be assumed that the recent price increases are transitional within an acceptable timeframe, and the Fed must continue to signal its commitment to price stability. (7) On Friday, attention will be focused on the April advance economic indicators report released at 20:30 Beijing time. The impact of the Iranian war on international commodity trade and inventories may trigger significant volatility. Also pay attention to the Chicago PMI and speeches by several Fed officials. Trading is biased towards range trading, but with a preference for selling on rallies.

19:28:18

Spain's public finance deficit (excluding municipal spending) is 0.24% of GDP (as of March).

19:24:59

[Italian Energy Giant Joins Forces with Energy Storage Company to Bet on Lithium Iron Phosphate Battery Supply Chain] ⑴ Italian energy giant Eni and battery energy storage company Seri Industrial signed an agreement on Friday to jointly develop the industrial supply chain for lithium iron phosphate batteries. The cooperation will be implemented through their respective subsidiaries. ⑵ The cooperation covers the production of lithium iron phosphate battery cells and modules, as well as the assembly of stationary energy storage systems and electric mobility systems for the industrial and commercial sectors.

19:22:19

[Hormuz Becomes Strategic Trump Card, Iran Unlikely to Relinquish Control, Oil Stalemate May Be Protracted] ⑴ A chief commodities analyst at an institution stated that Iran is unlikely to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz, as the waterway remains a key source of strategic leverage in any future nuclear negotiations with Washington. ⑵ Analysts point out that for a long time, the possible path out of this war has been an agreement that is not essentially a deal, but rather an agreement to further negotiations and resolve disputes later—essentially postponing the issue.

19:22:10

The Shenzhou-22 manned spacecraft successfully separated its orbital module from its return capsule. (Xinhua)

19:20:05

According to institutional surveys, the average price of U.S. crude oil in 2026 is projected to be $84.63 per barrel, up from the $80.07 forecast in April. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 is projected to be $90.44 per barrel, up from the $86.38 forecast in April.

19:17:44

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,530.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,529.68/ounce, up 0.74% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,561.40/ounce, up 0.64% on the day.

19:15:12

[Uncertainty Surrounds Iran Ceasefire Agreement, Weighing on US Wheat and Corn, Soybean Oil Demand Supports Soybean Strength] ⑴ Chicago wheat and corn futures fell on Friday, while soybean futures rose, as the market assessed the impact of a potential new ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on agricultural commodities. ⑵ Crude oil futures, a key factor influencing the grain market recently, fell after news of a potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with the market anticipating a significant drop in commodity prices for any peace deal. ⑶ Institutional commodity risk managers stated that wheat, corn, and soybeans diverged today, as the market assessed the specific meaning of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which has technically existed since April. ⑷ Favorable weather continued in the US Midwest, with some necessary high temperatures, weakening wheat prices. However, US corn and soybean crops will soon require rainfall, and soybeans continued to rise slightly due to strong soybean oil demand under the US biofuel blending obligation, tight cash supplies, and record crushing margins. (5) The upcoming harvest in the Northern Hemisphere limited wheat price increases. While the US crop is suffering from drought, many other countries are experiencing good harvests, and traders say China may begin purchasing US soybeans and agricultural products under a new trade agreement. (6) The Russian Agriculture Minister stated that Russia's 2026 grain harvest is expected to be good, indicating that it will exert export competition pressure on the US and other suppliers.

19:14:29

[Iran Conflict Pushes Up Prices, Eurozone Inflation Has Not Yet Peaked, ECB Rate Hike Almost a Certainty] ⑴ Preliminary data released on Friday showed that inflation in the four major Eurozone economies exceeded the European Central Bank's 2% target for the third consecutive month in May, with rising fuel costs triggered by the Iran conflict beginning to spread to other commodity prices. ⑵ French inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%, Italian inflation rose from 2.7% to 3.2%, Spanish inflation remained stable at 3.2%, while data from most German states that have reported inflation declined. Germany implemented fuel discounts in May and June to mitigate the impact of rising gasoline prices. ⑶ Spain and Italy both reported significant increases in transportation and entertainment prices, likely a chain reaction of rising fuel costs. Fresh food prices in France jumped 4.1%, and service sector inflation rose slightly. ⑷ Institutions expect the Eurozone's overall data to be released on Tuesday to show a 3.3% overall inflation rate in May, and a 2.4% core inflation rate excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco. Core inflation indicators in both Italy and Spain have risen. (5) Economists say inflation has not yet peaked and expect Eurozone inflation to rise until August, with its future largely dependent on the situation in the Middle East. The baseline scenario is that the situation will normalize by the end of June. (6) Since the end of April, hopes for a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran have driven oil prices down sharply, with Brent crude falling from $118 to $92 per barrel, but still well above the pre-war level of around $70. Continued deflation in French manufacturing suggests that this round of inflationary shocks should be smaller than those in 2022.

19:11:21

Federal Reserve's Schmid: The Fed's job is currently very difficult due to the global situation.

19:10:33

[Colombian Presidential Election First Round Imminent: Left-Wing Leader Faces Challenges, Economy and Security Key to Victory] ⑴ Colombia held its first round of presidential elections on Sunday. Left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda led the polls, promising to expand social welfare and advance peace negotiations with illegal armed groups to end six decades of internal conflict. ⑵ Cepeda proposed a tax reform plan, including expanding the tax base, levying a wealth tax, and cutting tax breaks for large corporations to fund social spending. He also expressed openness to constitutional amendments proposed by the left. ⑶ The right-wing camp is led by independent businessman Abelardo de la Espéra and Senator Paloma Valencia. The former advocates a hardline crackdown on crime and drug trafficking, strengthening the military, building large prisons, and tax cuts to revitalize the mining and oil industries. ⑷ Valencia pledged to end the current government's peace negotiations, cut corporate taxes to promote employment, and push for reforms in healthcare, the judiciary, and pensions. Both candidates focused on security and economic recovery. (5) Polls show no candidate is likely to win more than half the votes in the first round. The top two candidates will advance to a second round of voting on June 21. The winner will face serious challenges in stabilizing public finances, reducing poverty, and curbing violence related to internal conflict. (6) More than 41 million Colombians are eligible to vote. The election results reflect the deep polarization within the country between continuing a left-wing policy and shifting towards secure growth. The market is watching the impact of subsequent policy directions on Latin America's fourth-largest economy.

19:06:29

Federal Reserve's Schmidt: Everyone is nervous about the Middle East wars. Oil prices should fall if the wars end. There's still time to observe the economic impact of the wars.

19:01:30

[Fed's Schmid: Oil Price Surge Not Temporary, Inflation Too High and Not a Reason to Let Down Our Guard] Kansas City Fed President Schmid stated at an economic conference in Reykjavik that inflation has been too high and has been well above the 2% target for far too long. He is not convinced that the recent price increases are temporary within an acceptable timeframe, and therefore, the focus remains on inflation when determining the correct policy path. Schmid added that given the length of time inflation has remained above target, now is not the time to let down our guard.

19:01:22

[Czech National Bank: Q1 GDP Up 0.2% QoQ, 2.2% YoY, Import Surge a Major Unexpected Factor] ⑴ The Czech National Bank commented that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the first quarter, but the overall pace slowed slightly. GDP grew by 0.2% QoQ, lower than the 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year; the year-on-year growth rate slowed to 2.2% from 2.7% in the fourth quarter. Domestic demand continued to grow, with consumption and fixed investment growth accelerating slightly. ⑵ Imports surged 8.2% YoY, the strongest growth rate since 2021, resulting in a negative contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth. Exports grew 5.8% YoY, the highest growth rate in three years, but still lower than the import growth rate. Further declines in inventories reduced overall GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points. ⑶ Fixed investment grew 7.3% YoY, the highest growth rate in four years, with the investment recovery supporting further growth prospects. Household spending grew 3.4% YoY, higher than the 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The first-quarter results were lower than the central bank's forecast, with the surge in imports being the major unexpected factor. The central bank had originally expected economic growth of 2.5% this year, but the weak first-quarter results and the risk of high energy prices increased the possibility that full-year GDP growth would be lower than expected.

19:00:46

Federal Reserve's Schmid: There must be flexibility in allowing interest rates to fluctuate.

18:59:17

Federal Reserve's Schmid: Our current monetary policy is not particularly tight.

18:59:14

Federal Reserve's Schmid: The balance sheet may be used to formulate policy restrictions.

18:57:44

Federal Reserve's Schmid: We may need to consider how to tighten monetary policy further.

18:56:39

Palm oil market analysis: A tug-of-war between bulls and bears amid export policy competition and biodiesel demand. Details>

18:52:44

The underlying logic behind the oil price crash: The market has figured out both sides' true intentions. Details>

18:52:35

[Italy's Q1 GDP Revised Up to 0.3% Quarter-on-Quarter and 0.8% Year-on-Year, Driven by a 2.2% Jump in Exports] ⑴ Italy's National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) announced on Friday that Q1 GDP grew 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, higher than the initial estimate of 0.2% on April 30; and grew 0.8% year-on-year, higher than the initial estimate of 0.7%. The conflict with Iran, which began with the US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, is expected to have its main impact starting in Q2. ⑵ Q1 exports jumped 2.2% compared to Q4 last year, while imports fell 0.7%, with net trade contributing 0.9 percentage points to the quarterly growth rate. Consumer spending and investment also increased, but a significant reduction in inventories dragged down economic growth by 1.1 percentage points. ⑶ The "vanished growth" at the end of Q1 was 0.6%, meaning that even if GDP remains flat quarter-on-quarter for the remaining three quarters of 2026, the annual growth rate will still be 0.6% higher than in 2025. The Meloni government had already lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next to 0.6% and 0.6% respectively last month, from 0.7% and 0.8%. Italy's GDP is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year that growth will be below 1%.

18:51:13

[Shanghai International Energy Exchange Adjusts Price Limits and Margin Ratios for Crude Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Futures] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, after careful consideration, it has decided to adjust the price limits and margin ratios for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts as follows, effective from the closing settlement on Tuesday, June 2, 2026: the price limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be 17%, the margin ratio for hedging positions will be 18%, and the margin ratio for general positions will be 19%.

18:49:27

[Shanghai International Energy Exchange Adjusts Trading Limits for Crude Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Futures Contracts] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, in accordance with the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Risk Control Management Rules" and other relevant regulations, it has decided that, starting from June 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session of June 1), the trading limits for non-futures company members, overseas special non-brokerage participants, and clients in relevant futures contracts will be adjusted as follows: The maximum number of intraday open positions for crude oil futures contracts SC2609, SC2610, SC2611, SC2612, SC2701, SC2702, SC2703, SC2704, SC2705, SC2706, SC2709, SC2712, SC2803, SC2806, SC2809, SC2812, SC2903, and SC2906, as well as subsequent newly listed contracts, will be 800 lots. The maximum number of intraday open positions for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts LU2609, LU2610, LU2611, LU2612, LU2701, LU2702, LU2703, LU2704, LU2705, LU2706 and subsequent newly listed contracts is 3,000 lots.

18:45:38

Brent crude oil futures fell 2.01% on the day, closing at $90.54 per barrel.

18:37:15

Spot gold rose 1.01% on the day, reaching $4,541.94 per ounce; COMEX gold futures were last quoted at $4,571.50 per ounce, up 0.86% on the day.

18:37:05

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,540.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,540.38/ounce, up 0.98% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,571.30/ounce, up 0.86% on the day.

18:32:22

A spokesperson for the German Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that natural gas inventory levels have risen further since last Wednesday, currently reaching 31%, and that this market-driven process requires no state intervention.

18:29:28

[Germany Regional Inflation Data Suggests Downside Risks; Pantheon Predicts May CPI May Fall to 2.6%] ⑴ Claus Vistesen, an analyst at Pantheon Macroeconomics, stated that German regional inflation data suggests downside risks to the national inflation data to be released at 20:00 Beijing time. The overall inflation rate in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's largest state, fell to 2.4% in May from 2.7% in April. ⑵ Bavarian data shows a significant effect from the fuel tax reduction, with the annual fuel inflation rate falling to 16.6% from 26.4% in April, and food prices falling 1.1% month-on-month. Vistesen predicts that Germany's May CPI inflation rate will fall to 2.6% from 2.9%, with the risk skewed upward to 2.7%, compared to a previous forecast of only a 0.1 percentage point decrease to 2.8%.

18:28:06

[Malaysian Palm Oil Spot Prices: CPO June delivery quoted at 4490 ringgit/ton, RBD palm oil June FOB quoted at $1165/ton] ⑴ Malaysian spot market prices on Friday showed that crude palm oil for June delivery was quoted at 4490 ringgit/ton, unchanged. RBD refined deodorized palm oil June FOB price was $1165/ton, unchanged. ⑵ RBD palm oil July/August/September futures price was $1175/ton, down $2.50; October/November/December futures price was $1200/ton, up $2.50; January/February/March next year futures price was $1217.50/ton, up $5. ⑶ RBD palm oil June FOB price was $1170/ton, unchanged. RBD palm stearin June FOB price was $1142.50/ton, up $2.50. Palm fatty acid distillate FOB price for June remained unchanged at $1052.50/ton. Palm kernel oil for June delivery was quoted at 454 ringgit/ton, down 1 ringgit.

18:27:07

[Non-Farm Payrolls Report Tests US Stock Market Rally: Expected 96,000 New Jobs, Over 150,000 Could Trigger Overheating Concerns] ⑴ The US May non-farm payrolls report will be released on June 5th, with the market expecting an unemployment rate of 4.3% and 96,000 new jobs. Investors are increasingly concerned that persistently high inflation and potential interest rate hikes could hinder the upward momentum of US stocks. The S&P 500 has risen more than 10% this year, with technology stocks leading the market driven by the AI boom. ⑵ Data released on Thursday showed that the PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, driven by rising energy prices during the Iran war, the largest increase since May 2023. A strong jobs report accompanied by rising inflation will continue to change the Fed's policy outlook; a weaker-than-expected report could alleviate concerns about the Fed shifting to tightening. ⑶ More than 150,000 new jobs could exacerbate concerns about an "overheated" economy and push up US Treasury yields, which would be detrimental to the stock market. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tracks a 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter, and with strong corporate earnings in the first quarter, the market should focus more on overheating rather than recession risks. (4) Broadcom will release its earnings report on Wednesday, posing a test for AI trading and semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen approximately 80% since its low on March 30. The 10-year US Treasury yield of approximately 4.46% remains a key risk to the stock market; a significant and sustained rise in interest rates would be most unsettling for investors.

18:26:49

[Fed's Schmid: Inflation "Too Hot" is Top Concern; Oil Price Shock Cannot Be Assumed to be Temporary] ⑴ Kansas City Fed President Schmid said on Friday that inflation is "too hot" and has been above target for too long, which is his top concern. He is not convinced that the recent price increases are temporary within an acceptable timeframe, and now is not the time to let his guard down. Schmid did not specify the specific impact of his inflation concerns on monetary policy. ⑵ Schmid noted that the U.S. economy is less exposed to energy shocks than in the past, but rising gasoline prices will still weaken consumer spending power. Despite higher oil prices, U.S. energy companies have not increased production. He found high caution in his conversations with companies, noting that they have shifted to stricter capital discipline over the past decade and are unwilling to increase production during periods of high price uncertainty. ⑶ Schmid believes that most economic indicators show continued steady growth, and the labor market is in a balanced state, partly boosted by hiring in the healthcare industry. There is evidence that artificial intelligence is suppressing hiring but has not driven layoffs. The market has shifted from expecting rate cuts this year to a possible rate hike, and some Fed officials have indicated that monetary policy may be tightened if inflation does not subside.

18:26:13

Federal Reserve's Schmid: The U.S. economy is less affected by energy shocks compared to the past.

18:26:09

Federal Reserve's Schmid: There is evidence that artificial intelligence is suppressing hiring, but not causing layoffs.

18:26:05

Federal Reserve's Schmid: Most data indicate that the economy will continue to grow.

18:26:02

Federal Reserve's Schmid: The main goal is to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

18:25:58

Federal Reserve's Schmid: To date, U.S. energy producers have not increased their investment in energy production.

18:25:53

Federal Reserve's Schmidt: The job market remains balanced, partly thanks to hiring in the healthcare sector.

18:25:50

Federal Reserve's Schmid: Soaring oil prices are dragging down purchasing power

18:25:47

Federal Reserve's Schmid: The Fed must demonstrate its determination to reduce inflation.

18:25:43

Federal Reserve's Schmid: "I don't believe" the recent surge in inflation is temporary.

18:25:37

Federal Reserve's Schmid: "My biggest concern" is inflation; currently, inflation is "too high."

18:25:06

[Japan Spends 11.7 Trillion Yen Intervening in Foreign Exchange Market Over the Past Month to Support the Yen, with Limited Effect] ⑴ Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Friday showed that authorities spent 11.7 trillion yen (approximately US$73.5 billion) intervening in the foreign exchange market over the past month to support the yen, but with limited effect. The yen remains hovering near the same level that prompted Tokyo's intervention. ⑵ Authorities intervened multiple times during Japan's Golden Week holiday at the end of April, when market liquidity was thin. At that time, the yen fell below the 160 level, hitting a near two-year low of 160.725 before rebounding sharply to 155.50. It further strengthened to around 155 on May 6, but subsequently resumed its decline, closing at around 159.65 on Thursday. ⑶ The yen was impacted by the Middle East crisis, with soaring energy prices causing a trade shock to Japan, which is almost entirely dependent on oil imports. This pressure exacerbated the yen's long-term weakening trend against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy after a decade of massive stimulus.

18:25:04

With only 3 months left until the US-Iran fiscal crisis and the midterm elections, the countdown to the crisis has begun. Details>

18:20:43

Portugal's May CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, unchanged from April, while core inflation was 2.2%. The Portuguese National Statistics Institute released preliminary data on Friday, showing that consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, unchanged from April. Core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) was 2.2% year-on-year, also unchanged from April. On a month-on-month basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.3% in May, a slowdown from the 1.4% increase in April.

18:17:26

[Bessant: US-Iran "may have reached a preliminary agreement," 2s-10s yield spread holds steady at 42.7 basis points] ⑴ US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that the US and Iran "may have reached a preliminary agreement." The agreement still requires Trump's approval and includes provisions for the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's commitment to reduce some of its nuclear programs. The Wall Street Journal reported that the gap between corporate profits and worker wages has hit a record high, with the labor share falling to a historic low. ⑵ Chevron's CEO warned that oil prices will jump this summer as supply decreases. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has removed up to 13 million barrels of supply per day from the global market and depleted its "shock absorbers." On Thursday, the 2s-10s US Treasury yield spread ranged from 42.8 to 41.2 basis points, last quoted at 42.7 basis points; the 5s-30s spread was last quoted at 82.3 basis points. (3) The latest yields for 2-year and 5-year maturities were 4.02%, 4.153%, 4.451%, and 4.977%, respectively. TYU26 trading volume reached 348,000 lots, higher than the average. Friday's economic data includes the April trade deficit (expected -$86.5 billion) and the May Chicago PMI (expected 50.5). Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Bowman and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will deliver speeches.

18:13:11

ECB Governing Council member Simkus: The timing of a second rate hike is still unclear. He may support a June rate hike.

18:11:00

ECB Governing Council member Simkus: Will not overemphasize the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy.

18:10:25

[Capturing Value with Forex Options: Premiums are Relatively Low When Implied Volatility Approaches Actual Volatility] ⑴ Forex options rely on volatility and rapid directional movements, but the forex market has recently lacked both. Implied volatility across all maturities is generally low, making paying premiums seem like a losing proposition. ⑵ Taking the AUD/USD pair as an example, the one-month implied volatility in mid-May was 7.7, while the historical actual volatility over the past month was 7.5, almost sufficient to support the implied level. If the spot market repeats its recent performance, holders can almost cover the premium; this narrow gap provides real value. ⑶ When the AUD/USD pair falls sharply, actual volatility surges, pulling implied volatility up from 7.7 to 8.8. Option holders profit not only from the directional movement but also from the volatility expansion itself. Both subsequently fall back to 7.7, returning to their starting point. ⑷ In a low-volatility environment, the threshold for profit may be lower than it appears. When implied volatility approaches actual volatility, option costs are relatively low, and a moderate recovery in the spot market is enough for holders to be profitable.

18:10:05

[Bank of England Governor Bailey: Allowing Inflation to Temporarily Exceed Target Amid Iran War, No Need to Rush to Raise Rates] ⑴ Bank of England Governor Bailey said on Friday that it is reasonable to allow inflation to run above the 2% target, given the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the Iran war and weak growth. However, this tolerance will lessen if signs of a second round of effects (referring to long-term inflationary pressures) begin to emerge. ⑵ Bailey reiterated that the Bank of England has tightened monetary policy by removing the option of interest rate cuts from the table, which has already impacted the economy. He stated that it is necessary to closely monitor the impact of the Middle East situation on the UK economy and inflation and adjust policy as needed. ⑶ The market has now fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 (in November), with only a one-in-three probability of a second rate hike. In March, investors had priced in more than three rate hikes. Bailey welcomed this, saying he hopes this situation will continue, but it will depend on developments in the Middle East.

18:03:40

Japan's Ministry of Finance: The amount of foreign exchange market intervention between April 28 and May 27 was 11.7 trillion yen.

18:03:31

[Next Week's Focus: Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Expected 96,000 New Jobs, Exceeding 150,000 Could Trigger Overheating Concerns and Pressure the Stock Market] ⑴ The US May non-farm payrolls report will be released on June 5th. The market expects 96,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate projected at 4.3%. Investors remain wary of persistently high inflation and potential interest rate hikes that could hinder stock market gains. ⑵ If the jobs report shows more than 150,000 new jobs, it could exacerbate concerns about an "overheated" economy and push up US Treasury yields, which would be detrimental to the stock market; conversely, if it is weaker than expected, it could alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve shifting to a tightening stance. Thursday's data showed that the PCE price index rose 3.8% year-on-year in April, the largest increase since May 2023. ⑶ Broadcom will release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, posing a test for AI-related transactions and semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has risen about 80% since its year-to-date low on March 30th, while the S&P 500 has risen 19% over the same period. The market expects a higher probability of interest rate hikes this year than rate cuts, and the 10-year US Treasury yield of approximately 4.46% remains a key risk factor for the stock market.

18:02:15

The final reading of Italy's GDP growth rate for the first quarter

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 0.30%

18:02:10

The final reading of Italy's GDP growth rate for the first quarter

Previous : 0.70% Forecast : 0.70%

Published Value 0.80%

18:01:01

[Liquidity Rule Adjustments May Only Lead to Mild Balance Sheet Reduction; Warsh's Ideals and Reality Diverge] ⑴ Analysts at BNP Paribas predict that a series of rule adjustments, which will take time to implement, could reduce bank reserve requirements by approximately $700 billion from the current level of $3.1 trillion. Specific measures include allowing banks to include borrowing from the Federal Reserve's discount window in liquidity requirements, introducing central clearing for Federal Reserve repurchase operations, and upgrading agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to the highest rating. ⑵ However, Federal Reserve Governor Waller is skeptical, arguing that due to the structural characteristics of the current financial system, it is impossible to return to the small balance sheet level seen nearly two decades ago before the financial crisis. He predicts that regulatory adjustments will only reduce reserves by $300 billion to $500 billion, and the balance sheet will still exceed $6 trillion, unlikely to shrink significantly. ⑶ New Chairman Warsh has long criticized the Federal Reserve's excessively large balance sheet, arguing that it distorts markets and weakens the policy rate's ability as a primary tool. The Federal Reserve's holdings increased from less than $1 trillion in 2007 to a peak of $9 trillion in the summer of 2022, before falling to $6.5 trillion by the end of 2025 and then expanding again due to technical operations. There are concerns that easing liquidity rules amid the Federal Reserve's overall relaxation of banking regulations could pose significant financial stability risks.

18:00:26

[Global Bond Markets Experience Dramatic Volatility in May: US 30-Year Yield Surges to 5.2% Before Falling Back as Market Shifts from Rate Hike Expectations to Economic Slowdown] ⑴ The May conflict with Iran impacted global bond markets. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury note surged to approximately 5.2% on May 20, its highest level since 2007. The yield on the UK 30-year gilt rose to 5.87%, its highest since 1998; the yield on the German 10-year gilt reached its highest level since 2011; and some Japanese government bond yields hit record highs. ⑵ As the US and Iran announced progress in negotiations and weak economic data weakened the case for a rate hike, borrowing costs fell along with oil prices. Between April 30 and May 29, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose by 6 basis points, while the yield on the German 10-year gilt fell by 6 basis points, and the yield on the UK 10-year gilt fell by approximately 21 basis points. ⑶ Traders have completely withdrawn their bets on a Fed rate cut this year and at one point fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The U.S. PCE price index rose 3.8% in April, the largest increase since May 2023. (4) Franklin Templeton's head of European fixed income stated that the market is concerned that inflation will persist longer than expected. Bank of America analysts believe the key driver of the U.S. Treasury sell-off is "deteriorating fiscal dynamics," while some investors' doubts about the independence of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, are also a factor.

17:59:35

[US Treasury 5s-30s Spread Holds Steady at 79-80 Basis Points Low, 30-Year Yield Falls to 4.96%] ⑴ The spread between the 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields hit a new low of 80 basis points on May 22, and after rebounding to 85.5 basis points, it stabilized again in this low range. This is the flattest level since 79 basis points in June 2025 and 74 basis points in May 2025. ⑵ The 5-year yield held steady above 4.13%, with the previous day's low near the 4.09% trendline. The 30-year yield fell to a new low of 4.96% on Thursday, following a previous low of 4.91% on May 7.

17:58:15

The year-on-year rate of M3 money supply in Hong Kong, China in April

Previous : 1.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.10%

17:57:47

Commerzbank: Brent crude oil prices are expected to reach $90 per barrel by the end of September and then fall to $85 per barrel by the end of the year. Copper prices are projected to rise to $14,250 per ton by mid-2027.

17:57:19

ECB Governing Council member Simkus downplayed the economic impact of a 25- or even 50-basis-point rate hike during 2026.

17:57:13

ECB Governing Council member Simkus: We will have a new economic assessment and forecasts in September. He supports a June rate hike, believing a second rate hike is "more likely." The scenario that would prevent him from supporting a rate hike is unlikely. After June, the ECB should collect data rather than act immediately.

17:57:11

With expectations of a tightening of approximately 32 basis points this year already priced in, how much support can the pound still find? Details>

17:56:33

The unemployment rate in Greece for April alone

Previous : 9% Forecast : -

Published Value 9.50%

17:56:27

Greece's annual rate of retail sales in March

Previous : 4.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3%

17:46:14

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1920.00/oz mark, last trading at $1920.25/oz, down 0.05% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1924.6/oz, down 0.14% on the day.

17:45:45

[Draft Iran Peace Agreement Includes $300 Billion Investment Fund; US Replaces "War Reparations" with "Investment Fund"] ⑴ According to the New York Times, one of the most surprising new elements in the draft Iran peace agreement is a proposed investment fund for Iran, reportedly worth $300 billion. Iran initially characterized it as war reparations (Iran estimated losses between $300 billion and $1 trillion). ⑵ The US has repackaged it as an international "investment fund" and will assist in its promotion, a more moderate term avoiding the word "reparations." This idea reportedly originated with Steve Witkov and Jared Kushner, who proposed promoting Tehran real estate projects and broader investment tools as leverage in the agreement.

17:43:59

Rio Tinto and South 32 set record high premiums of $460-480/ton for aluminum to Japan in Q3. According to informed traders, due to tightening global supply caused by the Middle East conflict, Rio Tinto offered a premium of $460/ton for aluminum to its Japanese customers in the third quarter, while South 32 offered $480/ton. If accepted, this premium would be more than $100 higher than the supply agreements reached between the two countries and the two mining giants in the second quarter.

17:43:52

The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement weakened both the US dollar and oil prices. Details>

17:41:59

[Copper Prices Rise 5.3% Monthly, Then Slightly Retreat; Uncertainty Over Iran Deal Limits Upside] ⑴ Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.1% to $13,690 per tonne on Friday, after rising 1.3% in the previous session. So far this month, LME copper prices have risen 5.3%, mainly driven by hopes of an end to the Iran war and signs of stabilizing demand. ⑵ Thursday's copper price rebound stemmed from news of an agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and lift shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump has not yet approved it, and Iranian state media also stated that the agreement has not been finalized. The head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said that today's decline in copper prices was mainly due to profit-taking, and the slight upward trend of the past two weeks is stalling. ⑶ US Comex copper futures fell 0.2% to $6.44 per pound, a premium of 3.7% or $511 per tonne over LME copper prices. Analysts pointed out that an agreement would open up room for further copper price increases, while any breakdown in negotiations could reignite inflationary pressures and limit upside. Meanwhile, the continued flow of metals into the US market helps tighten the overall global supply, providing support for future prices.

17:41:01

Bank of England Governor Bailey: The market is clearly feeling the pressure of the Iran war on government fiscal plans.

17:36:25

Bank of England Governor Bailey: Hopes for the UK bond market have been dashed; the yield curve will continue to move, but this depends on the situation in the Middle East.

17:35:56

Greece's PPI year-on-year rate in April

Previous : 8.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 12.80%

17:35:11

Bank of England Governor Bailey: Higher inflation expectations are not reflected in wage expectations and settlements.

17:33:42

[Italy's Inflation Rises to 3.2% in May, a More Than Two-Year High] ⑴ Italy's overall inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May from 2.7% in the previous month, in line with market expectations and the highest level since September 2023. ⑵ This increase is consistent with the trend in other major Eurozone economies, as tight oil and gas supplies following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East have pushed up price increases in energy-importing countries. ⑶ Both unregulated energy prices (rising from 9.6% to 12.6%) and regulated energy prices (rising from 5.3% to 5.8%) accelerated. Similarly, inflation rates for transport services and leisure and cultural services were also higher. ⑷ Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, rose to 1.8% from 1.6% in the previous month. ⑸ On a month-on-month basis, Italy's consumer price index rose by 0.4%, a slowdown from the 1.1% increase in April.

17:32:30

India's NIFTY index fell 1% to 23,665.45.

17:29:20

Nymex crude oil futures for the most active contract have just broken through the $87.00/barrel mark, currently trading at $86.98/barrel, down 2.16% on the day.

17:27:08

According to The Economist's tracking survey, Trump's net approval rating has fallen to -24, the lowest level since the survey began in 2016. This decline is mainly driven by his -43 approval rating on inflation and rising gasoline prices due to the war with Iran.

17:27:03

[Eurozone bond yields fell on Friday as markets weighed the prospects of a US-Iran deal against inflation data; German 10-year bond yield held steady at 2.9587%] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields declined on Friday, with the German 10-year bond yield remaining unchanged at 2.9587%, while the yield on the German 2-year bond, which is more sensitive to ECB interest rate expectations, fell 1 basis point to 2.5439%. ⑵ Sources revealed that the US and Iran have reached a draft agreement on extending the ceasefire and restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump has not yet approved it, and Iranian state media also stated that the agreement has not yet been finalized. Oil prices remained stable at $93.79 per barrel. ⑶ Jefferies' chief European economist stated that if an agreement is reached, risk assets should rise again while interest rates fall, and the interest rate market's reaction may be stronger than that of the stock market. Societe Generale's head of research pointed out that the 2.90% support level for the German 10-year bond yield currently appears unlikely to hold.

17:23:08

The Straits Times Index in Singapore closed up 1% at 5037.86.

17:22:36

Hungarian Prime Minister: Will meet with the President of the European Commission at 1 p.m. to reach a political agreement on EU funding issues.

17:20:27

Brent crude oil futures, the most active contract, just broke through the $91.00/barrel mark and is currently trading at $90.95/barrel, down 1.57% on the day.

17:20:13

Bank of England's Bailey: Continued indirect effects could keep the consumer price index above the target level.

17:20:04

Bank of England Governor Bailey: We can tolerate inflation temporarily exceeding target.

17:19:37

Nymex crude oil futures for the most active contract fell 2.02% to $87.10 per barrel on the day.

17:19:10

[Middle East crude oil spot trading is intensifying, with India making multiple purchases of Upper Zakum, Oman, and WTI crudes; Qatar Energy's monthly auction for al-Shaheen crudes reaches 6 vessels] ⑴ Several Indian refineries have recently made intensive purchases: IOC bought Upper Zakum crudes (multiple transactions, including 2 million barrels from Mercury and 1 million barrels from Totsa) and WTI crudes (2 million barrels from Vitol); BPCL bought 1 million barrels from Oman and 500,000 barrels from Upper Zakum (Totsa Dubai + 70-80 cents/barrel); MRPL bought a total of 2 million barrels from Kisanjah and Mostada (Exxon supply). ⑵ In Qatar Energy's April auction, six al-Shaheen crudes, each 5 million barrels, were purchased by Totsa (1 vessel), Reliance (3 vessels), and Shell (2 vessels) at a price of Dubai futures + 87 cents/barrel. Qatar sold 5 million barrels each of land-based and sea-based crude oil to Reliance (Dubai + $1.10) and Eneos respectively. ⑶ India's BPCL signed a long-term contract with Trafigura from April 2026 to March 2027, supplying four shipments of Oman crude oil (75 cents/barrel lower than Dubai price) and one shipment of Basra medium crude oil (40 cents/barrel lower than official selling price) per quarter. ⑷ Thailand's IRPC purchased two shipments of Das crude oil, each 500,000 barrels, supplied by Glencore and Totsa, at Dubai + approximately $1.50. ⑸ Qatar Energy's March shipment tender included four shipments of al-Shaheen crude oil, each 5 million barrels. Totsa purchased one shipment at -32 cents/barrel, and Unipec purchased three shipments at -35 cents/barrel, with a long-term price of -33 cents/barrel.

17:18:33

The annual rate of CPI in Hesse, Germany in May

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.60%

17:18:22

The monthly CPI rate of Hesse, Germany in May

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.20%

17:17:12

The annual rate of CPI in Brandenburg, Germany in May

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.80%

5

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4544.73	49.14 (1.09%)
XAG	75.546	-0.071 (-0.09%)
CONC	87.91	-0.99 (-1.11%)
OILC	91.69	-0.71 (-0.76%)
USD	98.927	-0.082 (-0.08%)
EURUSD	1.1661	0.0011 (0.09%)
GBPUSD	1.3461	0.0018 (0.13%)
USDCNH	6.7652	-0.0038 (-0.06%)

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