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2026-07-17 Friday

2026-07-19

22:02:21

U.S. July University of Michigan Consumer Expectations (Preliminary)

Previous : 50.70 Forecast : 51.70

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 54

Previous

22:02:19

Preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan's 5-year inflation forecast in July.

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : 3.30%

Published Value 3.30%

Previous

22:02:17

Preliminary University of Michigan Economic Conditions for July

Previous : 47.70 Forecast : 48.70

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 54.90

Previous

22:02:15

Preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan's 1-year inflation forecast in the US in July.

Previous : 4.60% Forecast : 4.50%

Published Value 4.20%

Previous

22:02:13

Preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July

Previous : 49.50 Forecast : 51

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 54.40

Previous

22:00:13

[Tech Stocks Plunge, Dragging Down US Stocks; Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Approaching Bear Market Territory] ⑴ US stocks opened lower on Friday, with the technology sector under widespread pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen more than 20% from its historical closing high, potentially confirming a technical bear market. SK Hynix ADRs fell below their IPO price, and SpaceX shares have dropped approximately 38% from their peak, resulting in significant market capitalization losses. ⑵ Core semiconductor stocks such as Intel, AMD, and TSMC fell by 5% to 7%. Analysts believe that the current correction in chip stocks has exceeded the scope of fundamental explanations, reflecting a shift in investment style and market preference from growth to value stocks. ⑶ The Federal Reserve Chairman expressed dissatisfaction with inflation at a hearing, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate hikes. Several officials released hawkish signals, with Logan explicitly calling for further rate hikes and Schmid warning of persistent upward inflation risks in the coming months. Expectations of policy tightening continue to suppress valuations. ⑷ Geopolitically, the outlook for the US-Iran war remains uncertain, suppressing overall risk appetite. In summary, the semiconductor sector is currently under triple pressure from rising interest rate expectations, capital rotation, and risk aversion. Whether it can stabilize in the future depends on the trend of US Treasury yields and whether there are signs of marginal easing in the geopolitical situation.

21:30:15

US June Industrial Production Annual Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 1.67% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.14%

Previous

21:18:14

US manufacturing capacity utilization rate in June

Previous : 75.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 75.70

Previous

21:18:13

[US Trade Representative Makes Clear Statement: USMCA Renewal Must Include Provisions to Reduce Trade Deficit with Mexico] ⑴ US Trade Representative Greer revealed at the Aspen Security Forum that he had received clear instructions from the President to include deficit reduction measures in the trade agreement renewal negotiations with Mexico, and stated that current consultations are progressing smoothly and both sides are taking a pragmatic approach. ⑵ Over the past year, Mexico's exports to the US totaled approximately $558 billion, an increase of about 8% year-on-year, while imports from the US totaled approximately $359 billion, an increase of about 7%. The continued expansion of the US trade deficit with Mexico constitutes the core political driving force of the negotiations. ⑶ Greer acknowledged that the US prefers to import goods from Mexico rather than some Asian economies, citing geographical proximity and supply chain resilience as advantages, but still emphasized the need to manage the deficit, demonstrating that its trade policy combines pragmatic cooperation with protective constraints. ⑷ From a market psychology perspective, if the final agreement includes quantifiable deficit reduction targets, it may affect Mexican manufacturing investment expectations and the peso exchange rate. Subsequent attention should be paid to whether specific measures involve substantive tools such as adjustments to rules of origin, industry quotas, or exchange rate clauses.

21:16:17

US manufacturing output in June (month-on-month)

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value 0%

Previous

21:16:16

US capacity utilization rate in June

Previous : 76.20% Forecast : 76.20%

Published Value 76.10%

Previous

21:16:15

US industrial production in June (month-on-month)

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0.20%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

21:16:12

[EU Banking Reform Blueprint Unveiled: Targeting State Intervention and Releasing €200 Billion in Liquidity] ⑴ The European Commission released a special report on banking competitiveness, directly pointing out that market fragmentation and state-level political intervention in mergers and acquisitions are the core issues hindering European banks from achieving economies of scale. This results in most banks having relatively large domestic markets but lacking sufficient size to compete with international rivals at the EU and global levels. ⑵ The report cites Germany's rejection of UniCredit's acquisition of Commerzbank in June of this year as a typical example, pointing out that such state-level intervention occurs frequently even without objection from regulatory and competition authorities, severely distorting the market logic of cross-border integration. ⑶ The European Commission plans to introduce specific legislative proposals in the first quarter of 2027. Core measures include cracking down on member states' violations of EU merger intervention rules and allowing cross-border banking groups to meet capital and liquidity requirements centrally at the parent bank level, rather than imposing additional constraints on subsidiaries under the current system. This is estimated to release approximately €230 billion in available liquid assets. (4) Industry feedback was mixed. The French Banking Association affirmed the report's direction but called for more concrete actions regarding regulatory coordination and limiting country-specific rules. The CEO of Deutsche Bank urged accelerating adjustments to capital floor standards and reassessing the financial stability buffer, emphasizing the urgency of the timeframe. (5) From a market psychology perspective, if the reforms are implemented, they will significantly enhance the flexibility of large European banks in allocating cross-border resources. However, member states' sensitivity to control over their domestic financial institutions and the renewed discussions on deposit insurance schemes remain focal points of political maneuvering, resulting in considerable uncertainty regarding the strength and pace of the reforms.

20:58:12

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Strengthening Safety Assessment of Combined Driving Assistance and Automated Driving Functions] The Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) convened a symposium with key automobile manufacturers to deploy relevant supervision and inspection work on automobile manufacturers and their products. The meeting required automobile manufacturers to resolutely resist irrational competition, strengthen product testing and verification and safety assessment, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of product consistency and quality safety. First, they must conduct in-depth investigations into product safety risks and hidden dangers, systematically identify problems in product consistency, reliability, durability, and new technology testing and verification by themselves and key component suppliers in accordance with relevant management requirements, earnestly carry out rectification work, comprehensively strengthen supply chain management, and enhance the ability to ensure production consistency. Second, they must strengthen product innovation design testing and verification, fully assess relevant safety risks, steadily promote the application of new technologies in vehicles, ensure compliance with relevant national standards and requirements for protecting human health and personal and property safety, strictly fulfill the obligation of notification, and refrain from exaggerated or false advertising. Third, they must strengthen safety assessments of combined driving assistance and automated driving functions, further enhance enterprises' safety assurance capabilities in functional safety, expected functional safety, network security, data security, and software upgrades, and strengthen the monitoring and handling of safety incidents.

20:48:12

[US Single-Family Housing Starts and Building Permits Both Decline in June; High Mortgage Rates Suppress Builder Confidence] ⑴ US single-family housing starts fell slightly by about 0.2% month-over-month in June to an annualized rate of 895,000 units, while the year-over-year decline widened to 3.2%. Single-family building permits fell by about 2.4% month-over-month to 871,000 units, also declining by about 0.2% year-over-year. The simultaneous weakening of these two core indicators reflects builders' cautious outlook on demand. ⑵ Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed by about 60 basis points, reaching an 11-month high of 6.55% this week. The continued rise in financing costs has directly weakened homebuyers' affordability and pushed new home inventory to levels close to those of late 2007. (3) A survey by the National Association of Home Builders showed that builder sentiment remained weak in July, compounded by geopolitical uncertainty and rising material and land costs. Although Congress recently passed a bipartisan housing affordability bill that restricts institutional investment in single-family homes and simplifies environmental impact assessments, its effects will take time to materialize. (4) Multi-family housing starts surged approximately 76% month-over-month to 513,000 units, driving an overall increase of about 19% in new home starts. However, multi-family building permits declined by nearly 5% month-over-month, suggesting that this surge in supply may be a short-term phenomenon, and the overall cooling trend in construction activity has not fundamentally changed.

20:44:13

[Goldman Sachs: Central Bank Buying Provides a Solid Bottom for Gold; Geopolitical Safe-Haven Demand Will Continue for Several Years] ⑴ Goldman Sachs points out that although expectations of Fed tightening are putting downward pressure on gold prices, the continued strong gold buying by central banks will provide a solid bottom for the gold market. This structural force is sufficient to buffer the selling pressure brought by rising policy interest rates. ⑵ According to institutional estimates, global central banks' net gold purchases in May were approximately 81 metric tons, with a monthly average of approximately 67 metric tons over the past three months, far exceeding the historical average of 17 metric tons before 2022, indicating that official sectors' willingness to allocate gold has reached a new level. ⑶ Goldman Sachs believes that the motivation of central banks to diversify their reserve assets to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks will continue to strengthen. This trend of increasing holdings is expected to continue for many years, with monthly gold purchases projected to remain around 50 metric tons and 40 metric tons in the next two years, respectively. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, central bank buying is stable and planned, unlike the emotional entry and exit of speculative funds. It often provides counter-trend support when gold prices pull back, and investors can use this to correct their simplistic linear judgment on the downside potential of gold.

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