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2026-11-05 Thursday

2026-11-06

18:30:00

US Challenger job cuts in October (in thousands)

Previous : 4.33 Forecast : -

Published Value 4.40

Previous

18:22:53

[South Korea Plans to Expand Escort Force's Operational Area to Waters Near the Strait of Hormuz] According to Yonhap News Agency on the 5th, South Korea's Ministry of National Defense stated that it plans to submit a revised proposal to the National Assembly to extend the deployment period of its escort force (the Cheonghae Unit). The revised proposal includes expanding the unit's operational area to the southern waters of Oman, closer to the Strait of Hormuz, while also increasing military equipment and personnel. Yonhap News Agency points out that this move can be seen as South Korea's first practical step in military action to stabilize the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The Cheonghae Unit is an overseas deployment force of South Korea stationed in the Gulf of Aden since 2009, primarily conducting escort and anti-piracy operations. According to the revised proposal, the Cheonghae Unit's deployment area will be expanded to the southern tip of Duqm Port in Oman. Duqm Port is approximately 350 nautical miles (about 650 kilometers) from the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf of Oman, which is directly connected to the Strait of Hormuz, is not included in this expanded operational area. Previously, the deployment area for the Cheonghae Unit was defined as "the Gulf of Aden and the designated areas for emergency protection of South Korean citizens." The South Korean government also plans to deploy an additional latest P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as unmanned underwater vehicles, unmanned surface vessels, remotely operated underwater vehicles, and other unmanned minesweeping equipment and explosive ordnance disposal units. (Xinhua)

18:03:53

[Multiple European Passenger Planes Disrupted by Bomb Threats in One Week] ⑴ This week, multiple passenger planes in Europe received bomb threats, forcing them to divert or undergo inspections. The Italian Air Force escorted one passenger plane. ⑵ On November 2nd, a Witz Airlines flight from London to Sofia was diverted due to a bomb threat and landed in Budapest. ⑶ On November 3rd, the Polish capital's airport received a potential bomb threat alert and inspected two planes arriving in Warsaw from London and Copenhagen respectively. ⑷ On the same day, a plane departing from Israel landed at Sofia Airport in Bulgaria after receiving a bomb threat email. ⑸ On November 5th, according to the Belgian newspaper Le Soir, a commercial passenger plane landed at Brussels Airport after receiving a suspicious report. ⑹ On the same day, Bulgarian local media, citing officials, reported that three planes made emergency landings due to bomb threats. ⑺ Aer Lingus stated that a flight from Dublin to Rome on the morning of the 5th made an emergency landing in Normandy as a security precaution. (8) A Finnair flight from Helsinki to Rome received a bomb threat, and the Italian Air Force safely escorted the aircraft to Rome. (9) The aforementioned threats have not shown a clear pattern, and the airlines and routes involved are not obviously related. (10) Bomb threats are relatively rare, and almost all of them were ultimately proven to be false alarms. (11) Overall, European aviation operations have recently been disrupted by a series of threats.

18:00:00

Eurozone September PPI year-on-year rate

Previous : 8.20% Forecast : 10.90%

Published Value 11.10%

Previous

18:00:00

Eurozone September PPI month-on-month rate

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : 2.50%

Neutral

Published Value 2.50%

Previous

17:52:23

[Electricity Prices Rise in Germany and France Due to Expected Decline in Wind Output] ⑴ Electricity prices in Germany and France rose on Thursday as expected declines in wind output and increased demand tightened the supply-demand balance. ⑵ Meanwhile, forward contracts fell, following a weakening trend in natural gas prices. ⑶ German baseload futures contracts rose about 7% to around €269 per megawatt-hour. ⑷ French similar contracts rose about 6% to around €272 per megawatt-hour, the highest since December 2022. ⑸ Analysts said that declining solar and wind power output coupled with increased demand tightened the supply-demand balance in Germany, while France also experienced a tightening due to reduced wind power. ⑹ German wind power output is expected to decline by 1.29 gigawatts to 13.36 gigawatts on Friday, and French wind power output is expected to decline by 2.75 gigawatts to 0.40 gigawatts. (7) German solar power output is expected to decrease by 1.67 GW to 5.89 GW, while French solar power output is expected to increase by 0.16 GW to 2.66 GW. (8) German electricity consumption is expected to increase by 0.58 GW to 59.87 GW, while French electricity consumption is expected to increase by 0.18 GW to 58.25 GW. (9) A nationwide strike in France resulted in a 2.4 GW decrease in nuclear power output on Thursday morning. (10) German forward baseload contracts fell by about 1% to around €144 per MWh, following lower natural gas prices. (11) The Dutch TTF benchmark near-month natural gas contract fell by about 2% to around €86 per MWh. (12) Some analysts believe that the renewed hope for peace between the US and Iran is a negative factor for the natural gas-dependent German electricity market, and expect further declines in gas prices to drive electricity prices down further.

17:49:25

[Institutions: Bank of England Expected to Resume Rate Hikes, Sterling Upside Limited] ⑴ Francesco Pesole of ING Group stated that he expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0% on Thursday, in line with market expectations and consensus. ⑵ The probability of a roughly 25% increase in household energy bills in January has risen, and overall inflation is expected to peak at slightly above 4% early next year, which is often considered the Bank of England's pain point threshold. ⑶ However, evidence of a second round of inflation remains limited. ⑷ The institution expects a 7-2 vote in favor of the rate hike and believes the Bank of England will not commit to further tightening at this stage. ⑸ A rate hike in February remains the baseline scenario, but policymakers should continue to emphasize the actual evidence of energy transmission to wages and prices. ⑹ A clear signal of further rate hikes would constitute a hawkish surprise. ⑺ The institution believes that Thursday's rate hike could validate the recent rally in sterling in the short term. ⑻ However, a February rate hike has already been fully priced in, and the threshold for a hawkish surprise to boost sterling seems quite high. ⑼ The euro is suppressed by French factors and has no immediate rebound potential against the pound. (10) The pound faces a less favorable short-term interest rate differential against the dollar, as the pound's yield curve exhibits greater dovish elasticity when oil prices fall. (11) The institution currently expects the euro to stabilize around 0.8400 against the pound, with the near-term upside for the pound against the dollar likely limited to 1.3500. (12) Overall, expectations of a Bank of England rate hike have been fully priced in, and further strengthening of the pound faces constraints.

17:48:50

[Institutions: ECB President Selection Affects Euro Movement] ⑴ Francesco Pesole of ING stated that the Netherlands has officially supported Klaas Knot's candidacy for ECB president. Knot subsequently gave a speech with a clearly hawkish stance. ⑵ Knot believes that the effects of a second round of inflation may rise, and the ECB needs to respond to small shocks pushing up inflation with higher interest rates. ⑶ Another leading candidate, Pablo Hernández de Cos, has long been considered a dove, and the market awaits his statements. ⑷ The institution believes that if Knot is appointed, given his hawkish stance, it will be a positive event for the euro. ⑸ Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October as expected from 3.8%, while core inflation remained stable at 2.5%. ⑹ The institution's macro team believes this brings the ECB closer to a December rate hike. ⑺ Affected by falling oil prices, the 2-year euro-dollar swap rate spread widened the previous day, which is unfavorable for the euro. (8) A similar dynamic occurred when oil prices fell to $70 in the summer, preventing the euro from rising against the dollar. (9) At least one more rate hike, most likely in December, seems a foregone conclusion, providing stronger support for eurozone interest rate expectations. (10) However, this interest rate factor, coupled with lingering French risks, makes the institution less optimistic about an upward breakout for the euro against the dollar. (11) The institution continues to believe that the euro's upside potential above 1.1300 is limited, with 1.1300 being its year-end target. (12) Overall, the stance of the ECB president and inflation data jointly influence euro pricing, but French risks limit the euro's rise.

17:34:38

[Italy Proposes Departure Tax, Contradictory Policy Signals for the Wealthy] ⑴ For the past decade, Italy has attracted global billionaires with substantial tax incentives and encouraged Italians living abroad to return home. Now, however, contradictory policy signals are emerging. ⑵ In recent years, a large influx of wealthy financiers and investors has entered Milan, while Italy is studying a departure tax proposal. ⑶ The proposal suggests levying a 26% tax on unrealized capital gains on individuals with financial assets exceeding €800,000 who relocate their tax residence overseas. ⑷ The bill is currently under review in parliament and will affect Italian citizens and long-term residents, but may not impact ultra-high-net-worth foreigners who have moved to Italy in recent years. ⑸ Even so, such a sudden policy shift could lead to the perception that Italy's wealth management rules and policy stance may change rapidly. ⑹ This could undermine the political stability and tax certainty that millionaires and billionaires value most. ⑺ A partner at an international law firm in Milan stated that, according to the current draft, this policy resembles a complex form of wealth tax. (8) This person believes that this gives the impression that Italy is becoming a "golden cage" for the wealthy. (9) The progress of the Italian parliamentary deliberations and the final scope of the policy's application need to be monitored to see how it affects the willingness of the wealthy to relocate. (10) Overall, Italy is experiencing policy tension between attracting the wealthy and strengthening wealth taxation, and tax certainty is facing a test.

17:31:50

[ECB Wage Tracker, Slightly Upward in the First Half of 2027] ⑴ The ECB Wage Tracker has been updated to reflect the wage agreement signed in mid-October 2026, with the forward range extended to the end of September 2027. ⑵ The main tracker, including one-off payments and smoothed over 12 months, shows that wages under the agreement will grow by 2.3% in 2026, covering 46.2% of employees in participating countries. ⑶ The indicator is projected to be 2.7% in the second half of 2026, 2.8% in the first half of 2027, and will decrease to 2.4% in the third quarter of 2027, the latter based on still relatively limited employee coverage. ⑷ The lower figure for the first half of 2026 still reflects the mechanical downward pull from the one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 that were not repeated the following year; this effect will completely dissipate in the second half of 2026. ⑸ Compared to the data released in September 2026, the main tracker has revised upwards by an average of approximately 0.1 percentage points for the second half of 2026 and the first half of 2027. (6) The tracking metric for unsmoothed one-time payments was 2.4% in Q3 2027, lower than 2.7% in the first half of 2027 and the full year of 2026. (7) The tracking metric excluding one-time payments slowed from 2.9% in the first half of 2027 to 2.5% in Q3 2027, with an average of 2.6% in 2026, continuing to indicate limited room for one-time payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements. (8) Excluding one-time payments, the metric averaged 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027, indicating that permanent agreement wage growth was slightly higher than the full year of 2026. (9) The primary tracking metric is better suited to describing quarterly or monthly dynamics of agreement wages, while the metric for unsmoothed one-time payments is better suited to describing annual dynamics. (10) Employee coverage was 46.2% in 2026, decreasing to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and further to 23.3% in Q3 2027, and is expected to gradually increase thereafter as more wage agreements are signed. (11) The European Central Bank pointed out that the wage tracking indicator may be revised, and the forward-looking portion should not be regarded as a forecast, but only reflects information from the current effective collective bargaining agreement. (12) This indicator is not perfectly synchronized with the official indicator of wage growth under the agreement, and it is normal for the two to deviate over time.

17:30:00

UK October SPGI Construction PMI

Previous : 46.10 Forecast : 46.10

Published Value 43.60

Previous

17:30:00

UK October S&P All Sector PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Previous : 51.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 52.10

Previous

17:26:07

[Japanese Government Bonds Rise as Lower US Treasury Yields Drive Buying] ⑴ Japanese government bonds rose on Thursday, following the decline in US Treasury yields during the Asian session. The weak performance of the 10-year bond auction was largely ignored by the market. ⑵ The 10-year bond yield had fallen by about 6 basis points before the auction, resulting in a tail spread of about 3 basis points. The subscription ratio was only 3.21, the lowest since August. ⑶ Although the auction results were slightly weaker than expected, the market accepted the relatively long tail spread given the significant decline in yields prior to the auction. ⑷ Futures opened about 10 ticks higher than the previous day, then briefly fell to the day's low before quickly rising to around 126.99 before midday. ⑸ Futures further extended their gains to 127.13 in the afternoon, as short sellers worried about a potentially strong 10-year auction, given that the 10-year yield had fallen by about 35 basis points from the previous auction last month. (6) Futures prices retreated from their highs after the auction, but remained around 127.00 throughout the day. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds remained around 4.84%, while ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds continued to see strong buying interest. (7) The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds fell by about 8 basis points to 3.845% at one point, before rebounding slightly. The yield on 24-year bonds fell by about 12 basis points. (8) A trader at a Japanese securities firm said that the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections boosted bonds, but the rally may soon lose momentum. (9) The trader said that the auction saw orders from clients, including those with offshore accounts, but there was no follow-up buying in the secondary market. Recent buying has come more from corporate accounts and educational institutions than from professional investors. (10) The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its September policy meeting, which included discussions not mentioned in the summary of opinions in early October. The committee members exchanged views on the neutral interest rate and the terminal interest rate. (11) Some members mentioned that the forward rate in the OIS market for 2 years and 1 year has already exceeded 2%. Other members believed that the natural interest rate plus a 2% inflation target implies that interest rates should be higher than 2%. Still others felt that market expectations for further tightening were slightly too high. (12) Most members believed that the neutral interest rate is difficult to observe directly and identify in advance. The Bank of Japan should adjust the degree of easing and monitor economic and price developments to explore the neutral interest rate.

17:25:28

[South Korean Chip Stocks Plunge, KOSPI Triggers Circuit Breaker] ⑴ South Korean stocks plunged on Thursday, with the KOSPI index falling by approximately 5%, triggering a sell-side circuit breaker during trading. Chip stocks were particularly hard hit. ⑵ Samsung Electronics fell by about 8%, and SK Hynix by about 10%. These two heavyweight stocks together account for about 50% of the KOSPI's weighting, significantly dragging down the index. ⑶ The decline spread to the entire technology sector, with Samsung SDI plunging by about 15%, and many other semiconductor-related stocks experiencing significant drops. ⑷ This sell-off followed disappointing earnings reports from US chip designers Qualcomm and Arm, reigniting concerns about the semiconductor industry's growth prospects. ⑸ Weak smartphone demand, rising storage costs, and uncertainty surrounding the returns on large-scale AI investments have collectively increased pressure on chip manufacturers and equipment suppliers. ⑹ Investors are also increasingly worried about potential delays in US data center construction, which could weaken future demand for memory chips. ⑺ Affected by the sharp decline in heavyweight stocks, the KOSPI has fallen by about 42% from its June high, reaching its lowest level since April. (8) Market analysts believe that the previous bubble in chip stocks is rapidly deflating, and the sector's valuation is facing a repricing. (9) Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of US technology company earnings guidance and data center construction progress on sentiment towards South Korean chip stocks. (10) Overall, South Korean chip stocks are under significant short-term pressure, and market divergence regarding the semiconductor cycle outlook has increased.

17:01:53

UK passenger car registrations in October (number of vehicles)

Previous : 350518 Forecast : -

Published Value 152730

Previous

17:01:40

Norway's central bank interest rate decision will take effect on November 5.

Previous : 4.50 Forecast : 4.50

Published Value 4.50

Previous

17:01:04

Italy's retail sales year-on-year growth rate in September

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.60%

Previous

17:00:58

Italy's seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month rate in September

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

17:00:00

Russia's foreign exchange intervention in November (billion rubles)

Previous : 2794 Forecast : 3500

Published Value 3126.30

Previous

16:42:50

Switzerland's unadjusted unemployment rate in October (%)

Previous : 3 Forecast : 3

Published Value 3

Previous

16:42:42

Switzerland's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October (%)

Previous : 3.1 Forecast : 3.1

Published Value 3.1

Previous

16:30:00

Eurozone October SPGI Construction PMI

Previous : 43.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 42.50

Previous

16:30:00

French October SPGI Construction PMI

Previous : 39.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 38.80

Previous

16:30:00

Germany's October SPGI Construction PMI

Previous : 43.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 41.60

Previous

16:30:00

Italy's October SPGI Construction PMI

Previous : 46.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 47.30

Previous

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4045.37

-43.43

(-1.06%)

XAG

51.481

-0.304

(-0.59%)

CONC

92.19

1.67

(1.84%)

OILC

100.67

1.53

(1.54%)

USD

101.750

0.157

(0.15%)

EURUSD

1.1198

-0.0020

(-0.18%)

GBPUSD

1.3432

-0.0016

(-0.12%)

USDCNH

6.6659

0.0013

(0.02%)