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2026-05-29 Friday

2026-05-30

11:34:10

【A-shares fell across the board in the morning session, with trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan. Power, retail and real estate bucked the trend and strengthened】 (1) The three major indices fell across the board in the morning session: As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.14%, the Beizheng 50 Index fell 2.46%, and the STAR Market 50 Index fell 3.63%. The total market turnover was 2.1323 trillion yuan, an increase of 337 billion yuan from the previous day, with more than 3,400 stocks falling. (2) In terms of sector gains: power, retail, liquor, real estate and coal mining and processing performed the best. The power sector opened lower and rose higher, with Jin Kong Power, Guangdong Power A and Shenzhen Nanshan Power A and many other stocks hitting the daily limit; the retail sector continued to strengthen, with Dongbai Group, Guofang Group and Baida Group hitting the daily limit; the real estate sector opened higher and strengthened, with Vanke A, Financial Street and Guangda Jiabao hitting the daily limit. (3) In terms of sector declines: MicroLED concept, semiconductor, optoelectronics, new metal materials and BC battery led the decline. The semiconductor sector opened higher but closed lower, with Fudan Microelectronics and Lihe Microelectronics among the biggest losers; BC batteries continued to decline, with Delong Laser and GRINM Powder Materials falling by more than 10%; the optoelectronic sector underwent a deep correction, with Hengtai Lighting falling by more than 20%, and many other stocks such as Fuguang Shares and Bayi Space experiencing sharp declines.

11:33:18

[US-Iran Ceasefire Expectations Weigh on Market, Brent Crude at Six-Week Low] 1. Crude oil futures prices fell slightly in early Asian trading on Friday, mainly influenced by news that the US and Iran might extend the ceasefire agreement. However, US Vice President Vance stated that the two sides were "close" to an agreement but "not yet" provided some support for oil prices. 2. July Brent crude futures fell as much as 1.2% to $92.56 per barrel, a new low since April 22; the more actively traded August Brent crude futures also fell about 1% to $91.61 per barrel. US crude futures fell as much as 1.8% to $87.37 per barrel. 3. Oil prices have fallen more than 8% this week, with US crude touching a low of $87.11, while last week's high was $109.47. Oil prices have fluctuated wildly in recent trading days, with the daily range of the two major benchmark crudes reaching as high as $6, mainly due to differing market signals regarding a possible end to the Iranian conflict and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz remains only a fraction of pre-war levels. 4. Sources revealed that the US and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend the ceasefire and lift shipping restrictions in the strait; however, US President Trump has not yet formally approved the agreement, and Iranian state media also stated that the agreement has not been finalized. 5. US Vice President Vance told reporters that Washington and Iran "have not yet reached" an agreement, but are close to achieving their goals, adding that the US currently possesses the capability to significantly weaken Tehran's nuclear program. Several disagreements remain in negotiations with Iran, primarily focusing on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and the issue of uranium enrichment. "I cannot guarantee that we will definitely reach an agreement, but for now, I feel quite good about it."

11:20:58

【Adani Vijenjam Port: 2 Million TEUs Handled in 18 Months, Setting a New Indian Record】 (1) Adani Vijenjam International Seaport, developed and operated by Adani Ports and Special Economic Zones Limited (APSEZ), has handled 2 million TEUs in just 18 months since its official opening, becoming the fastest port in India to reach this milestone. The port began trial operations in July 2024, officially opened in May 2025, and surpassed 1 million TEUs in August 2025. (2) Vijenjam Port is strategically located in the Indian Ocean Corridor, only 10 nautical miles from the main international east-west shipping routes. With a natural water depth of about 20 meters, it can accommodate ultra-large container ships (67 ships have been handled, such as the "MSC Irina"). Its operational efficiency and locational advantages provide shipping companies with a stable and efficient transshipment option against the backdrop of global shipping routes being affected by geopolitics and supply chain disruptions. (3) The port’s rapid growth helps reduce India’s reliance on overseas transshipment ports, enhance its cargo transshipment capacity and maritime competitiveness. The second phase of the expansion project, with an investment of approximately 160 billion rupees, is expected to be completed in 2028 and will further enhance container handling capacity. APSEZ has already achieved a cargo throughput of 500 million tons in a fiscal year, consolidating its leading position in India’s private port operations.

11:16:19

New Zealand's M3 money supply in April

Previous : 4556.43 Forecast : -

Published Value 4544.42

Previous

11:11:29

[US-Iran Ceasefire News Weighs on Safe-Haven Demand, Dollar Likely to Close Lower This Week] 1. The US dollar traded in a narrow range against major currencies on Friday. After rising and falling back on Thursday, it has fallen about 0.25% so far this week, currently trading around 99.06, and is likely to close lower for the week. Earlier reports indicated that the US and Iran had reached a draft agreement on extending the ceasefire and restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, although the agreement still requires final approval from US President Trump. 2. Four sources familiar with the matter revealed that the agreement proposes to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and allow ships to pass through this strategic waterway, while negotiators will address more thorny issues such as Iran's nuclear program. 3. Demand for the safe-haven currency, the US dollar, has weakened due to falling oil prices. However, conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran earlier this week have kept investors cautious about the possibility of a lasting solution, thus limiting overall market activity. 4. The head of strategy for global sovereign markets at UBS Asset Management stated, "Once this crisis in Iran and the Middle East is over, we expect the US dollar to remain weak." He pointed out that the conflict has temporarily halted the dollar's decline due to safe-haven demand, but many investors remain keen to diversify their portfolios and reduce their reliance on dollar assets. 5. Regarding economic data, driven by energy prices pushed up by the Iran war, US inflation in April reached its highest level in three years, further solidifying economists' view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period next year.

10:54:52

[Americans' credit card debt reaches $1.25 trillion, with delinquency rates hitting a 15-year high] (1) Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the total balance of credit cards in the United States reached $1.25 trillion in the first quarter of this year, the highest since records began in 1999. The proportion of balances overdue for at least 90 days rose to 13.12%, the highest level in 15 years. (2) The average interest rate on credit cards rose from 14.6% in February 2022 to 21% in February this year. Under the double blow of high inflation and high interest rates, more and more Americans are finding it difficult to repay their debts. Data shows that last year, 5.6% of cardholders were overdue for more than 60 days, exceeding the pre-pandemic level. (3) High-income earners are also under pressure: Clark, the hospital operations director with an annual salary of $194,000, has a credit card balance of $15,000. At an interest rate of 26%, the minimum monthly payment can hardly reduce the principal. She has been forced to reduce her social life and even consider part-time work. (4) Low- and middle-income groups are more vulnerable: Medical assistant Megison had a credit card balance of more than $20,000 after her divorce. She was constantly receiving collection calls and once attempted suicide because of this. She eventually sold her house to pay off her debts and developed a repayment plan through a credit counseling agency. (5) Another case: Daniel Horst, a church administrative assistant with an annual income of $40,000, saw his debt balloon to $20,000 due to credit card interest rates rising to 24%-26%, leading to a broken marriage and suicidal thoughts. He later changed jobs and received a raise, and through a non-profit organization, lowered the interest rate to 6%, paying off his debts in two years. (6) The National Credit Counselling Foundation stated that the number of clients in January increased by 24% year-on-year, and the level of default risk was the highest since 2022. Many families are caught in a "survival debt mode," and even those who have paid off their debts are worried that a sudden accident will cause them to incur debt again.

10:42:53

[Improved risk sentiment supports Australian dollar, interest rate hike expectations help New Zealand dollar hit two-week high] 1. On Friday, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars shrunk from recent selling pressure. The market reacted positively to news of a possible extension of the Middle East ceasefire, oil prices fell under pressure, and global risk assets were generally boosted. The Australian dollar is currently trading around 0.7158 against the US dollar, holding onto most of Thursday's gains. The New Zealand dollar continued its upward trend, rising as much as 0.37% to 0.5955, a new high since May 13. 2. Reports indicate that the draft agreement to extend the ceasefire includes provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This news encouraged investors, but the feasibility of this arrangement in practice remains to be seen. 3. The mere possibility of reaching an agreement was enough to push the Australian dollar against the US dollar from an overnight low of 0.7098 to around 0.7160. The Australian dollar has risen about 0.5% this week, but has not yet broken through the resistance level near 0.7182. 4. Supported by expectations of an interest rate hike, the New Zealand dollar performed stronger, rising 1.7% in three trading days and poised to retest the May high of US$0.5991. Large-scale short covering in the Australian dollar also provided additional support for the New Zealand dollar. The Australian dollar fell to a six-week low of NZ$1.2026 against the New Zealand dollar, well below the high of NZ$1.2284 earlier this week. 6. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hinted on Wednesday that interest rates could be raised soon to address inflationary pressures from energy prices. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a rate hike in July, with rates potentially reaching 3.0% by the end of the year, peaking at around 3.50%. 7. Economists at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs believe the neutral interest rate will be between 2.50% and 2.75%, therefore expecting only two rate hikes in total. Economists at Westpac, however, predict the first rate hike may not occur until September, but in the long term, the central bank will have to raise rates to higher levels. 8. Westpac's chief economist for New Zealand, Kelly Ekhold, stated that he expects interest rates to rise by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, and that rates need to rise above 4% to control CPI inflation. 9. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised its interest rate to 4.35%. Recent weaker-than-expected employment and inflation data have prompted investors to significantly lower the probability of a June rate hike to only 5%. The market currently believes there is a 70% probability of a final rate hike this year to 4.60%, with the hike likely occurring in the fourth quarter.

10:27:55

[Gold Prices Rise Slightly Amidst Intertwined News of US-Iran Ceasefire and Interest Rate Outlook] 1. Gold prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Friday, with spot gold initially gaining 0.5% to $4,520 per ounce. Investors are assessing news regarding an extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, while concerns about inflationary pressures and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike persist. 2. Gold prices fell to a two-month low in the previous trading session before recovering following news of an extended US-Iran ceasefire. Sources revealed that the US and Iran have reached a draft agreement on extending the ceasefire and restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, US President Trump has not yet approved the agreement, and Iranian state media also stated that the agreement has not been finalized. 3. On the economic data front, US inflation in April recorded its fastest pace in three years, mainly driven by energy prices pushed up by the war with Iran. This further reinforces the general view among economists that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at least until next year. 4. Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out. St. Louis Fed President Moussalem stated that if inflation fails to slow down within the next six months, the Fed may need to consider raising interest rates. New York Fed President Williams believes that current monetary policy is appropriate, and while inflation is expected to remain high in the short term, pressures are likely to ease later this year. 5. Furthermore, data released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department shows that China's net gold imports via Hong Kong increased significantly by 81.2% in April compared to the previous month.

10:24:20

Singapore's annual rate of M1 money supply in April

Previous : 8.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 9.17%

Previous

10:24:20

Singapore's M2 annual rate of money supply in April

Previous : 5.55% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.46%

Previous

09:59:09

[US-Iran Framework Agreement Approaching, Trump Caught Between Hawks and Oil Prices] (1) US President Trump is caught in a dilemma as he seeks to end the war against Iran: on the one hand, he wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower domestic oil prices; on the other hand, any concessions to Tehran could provoke strong opposition from Iranian hawks within his party. (2) According to sources, a framework agreement is being drafted that includes extending the current ceasefire and removing Iran’s control over key oil shipping routes, but postpones the nuclear issue to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. If approved, the agreement would be the most important step toward peace since the US-Israel joint strike against Iran and could alleviate soaring energy prices. (3) However, influential hawks within the Republican Party (such as Graham and Cruz) are urging Trump to “get the job done” and resume strikes to cut off Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump countered that he is in no hurry and will only accept a “great” agreement. (4) Leaked memos show that the proposed agreement avoids the most difficult issues, such as the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, the disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and details of the lifting of sanctions. Critics argue that Iran may benefit more, only promising to continue nuclear negotiations in the future. (5) Analysts point out that Trump is trying to get Iran to make key concessions while only making limited compromises in order to portray the outcome as a victory. But reopening the Strait is merely a restoration of the pre-war state, not a real achievement. (6) Trump faces dual political and economic pressures: his approval rating has plummeted to a new low, the midterm elections are approaching, and high oil prices could damage the Republican Party's chances. Iran, on the other hand, has shown greater resilience, able to withstand a military strike and the cutting off of one-fifth of the world's oil supply. (7) For a president who promised not to get involved in unnecessary wars but has dragged the United States into conflict, how he ends this war will determine his foreign policy legacy for his second term.

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49.14

(1.09%)

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