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2025-11-03 Monday

2025-11-04

23:00:03

The ISM Manufacturing price payment Index for the United States in October

Previous : 61.90 Forecast : 61.70

金银石油

美元

Published Value 58

23:00:03

The ISM manufacturing employment index for the United States in October

Previous : 45.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 46

23:00:02

Mexico's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 49.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.50

23:00:02

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 49.10 Forecast : 49.50

金银石油

美元

Published Value 48.70

22:53:37

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just broken through the 47,400.00 mark, currently trading at 47,398.42, down 0.35% on the day.

22:50:02

[Russia claims to have tightened its encirclement of Ukraine in Khedron City; Ukraine claims to have halted the Russian offensive] On November 3, local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that it had tightened the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the direction of Khedron City (Pokrovsk in Ukrainian), thwarting several Ukrainian breakout attempts. Ukraine, on the other hand, claimed to have halted the Russian offensive. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a battle report on November 3, stating that in the past day, Russian assault groups attacked besieged Ukrainian forces near the Khedron City (Pokrovsk in Ukrainian) railway station and surrounding industrial areas, while also launching attacks in the villages of Genatovka and Rog. They repelled 10 enemy breakout attempts in the north and northwest, continuously tightening the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east. Khedron City serves as a logistical hub for the Ukrainian army on the eastern front. If the Russian army completely controls this city, it will cut off the supply corridor for the Ukrainian Donetsk military group and open a path for Russian forces to enter Dnipropetrovsk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine released a battle report stating that over the past day, Ukrainian forces repelled dozens of Russian offensives in the Yugoslavian-Loborzhansk and Pokrovsk (known as the "Red Army City" in Russia) directions, and launched multiple attacks against Russian forces in the Kupyansk and Leman directions, successfully preventing the Russian army from expanding its presence in the region. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side emphasized that its forces successfully prevented a Russian attempt to cut off the highway connecting Pokrovsk (known as the "Red Army City" in Russia) and Rodinskoy. In addition, Ukrainian forces attacked the Saratov oil refinery and a series of Russian military logistical facilities on the same day. (CCTV News)

22:49:18

JPMorgan: 10-Year German Bond Yield Expected to Remain Within Near-Term Range of 2.55%-2.75% in the Short Term. JPMorgan strategists indicate that the 10-year German bond yield is expected to remain within its recent range of 2.55%-2.75% in the short term. The bank's analysts favor increasing their holdings of German bonds when yields reach the upper half of this range. Analysts also believe that the recent decline in low-yield, long-term German bonds has been excessive.

22:48:21

[Swiss National Bank President: Inflation Expected to Rise in Coming Months] Switzerland's annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0.1% in October, down from 0.2% in September. However, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may not have anticipated this result. SNB President Martin Schlegel recently stated that the bank predicts inflation will rise in the coming months. Debono pointed out that declining rent inflation and electricity price reductions early next year could lead to an inflation rate of -0.3% in February next year. However, since the SNB has stated that it will only lower the benchmark interest rate below 0% if the medium-term inflation rate falls below zero (for example, by the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028), the bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in December and throughout next year.

22:47:15

[UBS: Swiss National Bank Unlikely to Cut Rates Again] UBS economist Franziska Fischer noted in a report that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to cut interest rates again, as it anticipates no medium-term deflationary pressures. She stated, "Our interpretation is that the SNB currently views the inflation outlook as consistent with price stability and believes the impact of tariffs on economic growth will be moderate." Fischer pointed out that for the SNB to consider negative interest rates, a significantly weaker Swiss economic growth outlook, further rate cuts by the European Central Bank to narrow interest rate differentials, and a continued appreciation of the Swiss franc would be necessary—factors that, combined, would significantly worsen the medium-term inflation outlook. Switzerland's inflation rate fell slightly to 0.1% in October from 0.2% in September.

22:45:47

[Rabobank: Risks of Eurozone Economic Slowdown Will Impact Euro] Jane Foley of Rabobank noted in a report that the risks of a slowdown in Eurozone economic growth will impact the euro. "Rabobank Research suspects that the negative impact of US tariffs has not yet fully manifested in Europe," she said. Given that speculators bet on a stronger euro earlier this year due to increased German fiscal stimulus, the possibility of a stronger euro remains, as German economic growth remains near stagnation. Rabobank is "increasingly pessimistic" about the euro potentially rising to $1.20 next spring. The bank will revise its forecast after the release of US economic data delayed due to the government shutdown.

22:45:02

The final reading of the US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 52.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 52.50

22:43:56

Petronas CEO: Conservative estimates suggest that the joint venture will reach a daily oil equivalent of 500,000 barrels by the end of this decade, but we are working to accelerate that process.

22:43:18

ICE New York cocoa futures rose more than 4% to $6,400 per tonne.

22:41:27

[Goldman Sachs: This US Government Shutdown "Is Likely to Have the Biggest Economic Impact in History"] Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips wrote in a report to clients that the current government shutdown "is likely to have the biggest economic impact in history." He noted that the funding suspension appears poised to exceed the 35-day partial shutdown of 2018-19 and will have a wider impact. If the shutdown lasts six weeks—around November 12—it could reduce the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate by 1.15 percentage points in the fourth quarter, with a recovery expected in the first quarter of 2026. He pointed out that as the shutdown's effects spread from air traffic control towers to the federal food stamp program, Congress is facing increasing pressure to break the deadlock.

22:40:24

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has just broken through the 47,500.00 mark, currently trading at 47,498.68, down 0.14% on the day.

22:40:20

[Rabobank: US Productivity Boost Has Been a Key Driver of Dollar Strength] Rabobank's Jan Foley points out that since the 2008 global financial crisis, US productivity gains have been a key driver of the dollar's strength, and the dollar may further benefit from this growth. "Productivity gains not only promote wealth creation but also effectively offset inflation risks." The US boasts the world's largest technology companies. Despite concerns about overvaluation of tech stocks, this is still a good sign. However, Foley suggests that the dollar's future appreciation may be relatively slow. Factors such as Japan's escape from deflation and completion of its stock exchange reforms; Africa's abundant mineral resources; Germany's fiscal stimulus policies; and central banks holding more gold may all dampen investors' willingness to buy US assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a three-month high of 99.958.

22:40:14

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1580.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $1579.95/ounce, down 1.21% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1593.5/ounce, up 1.15% on the day.

22:38:50

[Economist: Despite Signals that the Bank of Canada's Easing Cycle May Have Ended, the Central Bank Will Still Have to Cut Interest Rates Again] Economist David Rosenberg, after analyzing Canada's August GDP data, stated that the previous view that the Bank of Canada had stopped cutting interest rates "has been dealt a heavy blow." Canada's GDP fell 0.3% month-on-month in August. Compared to the same period last year, GDP grew by only 0.7%, a figure Rosenberg (head of Rosenberg Research) pointed out, lower than the Bank of Canada's previously revised potential growth forecast. Rosenberg stated that this will "pave the way for continued idle economic capacity, which is an inevitable component of a deflationary environment." He believes that despite the Bank of Canada signaling that its easing cycle may have ended, the central bank will still have to cut its main interest rate again.

22:32:37

[Fed Watchers Focus on Governor Cook's Speech] Analysts closely monitoring the Federal Reserve will be watching closely at 2 p.m. ET when Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers her first public speech. Cook previously fired her on allegations of personal mortgage fraud, which she denies. Cook will speak at the Brookings Institution in Washington, outlining her views on the economy and the future path of monetary policy.

22:31:23

The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.03% on the day, closing at 23,969.97.

22:30:45

[US May Close Airspace Due to Government Shutdown] The US federal government shutdown has lasted 34 days. US Transportation Secretary Duffy told US media today (November 3) that if he believes the shutdown is making US air travel unsafe, the government will shut down the US aviation system. Duffy said, "If we feel [the shutdown] is making it unsafe… we will close the entire airspace. We will not allow people to travel. We haven't reached that point yet; at this stage, there are only serious delays. But during a continued government shutdown, there are definitely more risks." (CCTV International News)

22:30:01

Canada's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 47.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.60

22:29:02

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,010.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,009.86/ounce, up 0.17% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,021.70/ounce, up 0.63% on the day.

22:27:41

U.S. Treasury yields rose as the U.S. government shutdown, poised to become the longest in history, deprived Wall Street of crucial government economic data. Economists expect the October manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), due at 10:00 AM ET, to rise slightly to 49.3 from 49.1, but remain in contraction territory. Futures markets now reflect a 67% probability of a December rate cut, down from 94% a week ago, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attempted to cool expectations of a third consecutive rate cut. Wednesday's ADP report is expected to show 25,000 new jobs added in October, compared to a 32,000 loss in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.109%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 3.603%.

22:24:29

[Pound Likely to Fall on Possible Bank of England Rate Cut This Week] Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG Bank, said the pound is likely to weaken as the possibility of another Bank of England rate cut on Thursday cannot be ruled out. He stated that whatever the decision, it could be very close. Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden is likely to vote for a rate cut along with his rate-setting colleagues Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor. Hardman said, "Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is likely to be the decisive swing vote, as Deputy Governor Sarah Briden has consistently voted in line with the Governor." However, he indicated that the Bank of England may first want to see further evidence of slowing inflation and the budget on November 26th. The UK money market has priced in a 36% probability of a rate cut this week. The pound fell 0.2% to $1.3122.

22:17:24

Paraguay's consumer prices rose 4.1% year-on-year in October.

22:17:02

Ford's U.S. sales rose 1.6% in October, thanks to strong SUV sales.

22:16:25

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR) rose 18 basis points on the previous trading day (October 31), the largest increase in a year, to 4.22%, compared with 4.04% the previous day. The effective federal funds rate was 3.86% on the previous trading day, compared with 3.87% the previous day.

22:14:26

Three-month zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $3,097 per tonne, a new high since December 2024.

22:13:40

[Over 17 Million People in my country Keep Exotic Pets; Market Size Nearly 10 Billion Yuan] "Exotic pets" refers to animals other than traditional pets like cats and dogs, kept as pets for enjoyment and economic gain. Currently in my country, the demand and trade of exotic pets are growing rapidly. Statistics show that approximately 17.07 million people in my country keep exotic pets, with a market size of nearly 10 billion yuan. These pets include various exotic animals such as tortoises and parrots, many of which are nationally protected species. (CCTV Finance)

22:02:52

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Looking at the 30-minute candlestick chart, after falling from the high of $4046.13, gold formed a clear horizontal support zone near the $4000 mark. Multiple pullbacks were successfully defended, indicating active buying interest around the $4000 level. The first resistance level is at $4027.87, followed by $4035.98, and then the previous high of $4046.13. These three resistance levels form a stepped distribution, constituting the upper edge of the current range. If the price can effectively hold above $4027.87 and close with a solid bullish candlestick on the 30-minute chart, it may retest the $4035.98-$4046.13 range. Conversely, as long as the price remains below $4020, the range-bound trading pattern will remain unchanged. The RSI (14) is running not far above 50, neither entering overbought territory nor falling back into the weak zone, indicating that the short-term technical state remains one of upward bias. Overall, $4,000 is the first line of defense that the bulls must hold. A break below this level would target the previous low of $3,988.91 and even $3,962.60. If the price can recover and consolidate above $4,030, it could potentially extend towards the high of $4,046 or even higher.

21:59:18

[ECB's Koch Signals Wait-and-See Approach; Internal Divergence Remains Regarding December Rate Cut] ⑴ ECB policymaker Koch said on Monday that the central bank is currently in a "comfortable" position with relatively stable inflation expectations, but emphasized that economic risks remain high. ⑵ He clearly stated that the next direction of interest rates is still unclear, and the best strategy before the December rate decision is to remain patient and observe the evolution of subsequent economic data. ⑶ Koch revealed significant divisions within the Governing Council, with some members believing there is still room for a rate cut in December, while others believe the current rate-cutting cycle has ended. ⑷ He personally prefers to maintain a neutral stance, stating that "we are in a very neutral position on interest rates," suggesting a possible hold-back in the short term. ⑸ This statement indicates that the ECB is seeking a balance between inflation control and economic growth, and the outlook for the December meeting still depends on the performance of key data in the coming weeks.

21:58:20

ECB Governing Council member Koch said: Some Governing Council members believe there may be room for another rate cut in December, while others believe the rate-cutting cycle is over. My current view is that we are in a very neutral position on interest rates.

21:57:17

[French Bond Auction Demand Diverges, Short-Term Yield Curve Steepens] ⑴ France successfully issued four maturities of government bonds on Tuesday, totaling €7.596 billion. The 13-week maturity bond was the largest at €3.2 billion, with a winning yield of 2.015%, a slight increase from the previous 2.011%. ⑵ The 26-week maturity bond was oversubscribed 5.5 times, with bids totaling €2.737 billion. €497 million was ultimately issued, with a winning yield of 2.030%, indicating particularly strong demand for short-term bonds. ⑶ The 28-week maturity bond issued €1.799 billion, with a winning yield of 2.055%, up 1.4 basis points from the previous 2.041%. The 52-week maturity bond issued €2.1 billion, with a yield of 2.060%, a slight increase from the previous 2.053%. ⑷ Bids exceeded 3 times for all maturities, with the 26-week maturity bond showing the highest demand, reflecting a market preference for high-quality short-term assets while pursuing higher yields. (5) The yield curve is steepening, with the spread between 13-week and 52-week yields reaching 4.5 basis points, indicating that investors maintain stable expectations for the short-term interest rate outlook in the Eurozone.

21:56:50

[French Bond Auction Demand Diverges, Short-Term Yield Curve Steepens] ⑴ France successfully issued four maturities of government bonds on Tuesday, totaling €7.596 billion. The 13-week maturity bond was the largest at €3.2 billion, with a winning yield of 2.015%, a slight increase from the previous 2.011%. ⑵ The 26-week maturity bond was oversubscribed 5.5 times, with bids totaling €2.737 billion. €497 million was ultimately issued, with a winning yield of 2.030%, indicating particularly strong demand for short-term bonds. ⑶ The 28-week maturity bond issued €1.799 billion, with a winning yield of 2.055%, up 1.4 basis points from the previous 2.041%. The 52-week maturity bond issued €2.1 billion, with a yield of 2.060%, a slight increase from the previous 2.053%. ⑷ Bids exceeded 3 times for all maturities, with the 26-week maturity bond showing the highest demand, reflecting a market preference for high-quality short-term assets while pursuing higher yields. (5) The yield curve is steepening, with the spread between 13-week and 52-week yields reaching 4.5 basis points, indicating that investors maintain stable expectations for the short-term interest rate outlook in the Eurozone.

21:55:09

Gold is being closely suppressed by the $100 level; who will blink first tonight? Details>

21:54:28

The most active liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures contract fell 1.02% intraday, closing at 4261 yuan/ton.

21:54:20

The annual rate of new car registrations in Spain in October

Previous : 16.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 15.90%

21:54:19

The monthly rate of new car registrations in Spain in October

Previous : 38.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 13.60%

21:52:27

[Baltic Dry Index Collapses Across the Board, Rates for All Three Vessel Types Plunge to Three-Week Lows] ⑴ The Baltic Dry Index fell 21 points, or 1.1%, to close at 1945 points on Monday, its lowest level in over three weeks since October 10th, with rates for all vessel types weakening. ⑵ The Capesize index plunged 41 points, or 1.4%, to 2888 points, with its average daily earnings falling by $333 to $23,955, mainly reflecting weak demand for iron ore and coal cargo transportation. ⑶ Iron ore futures prices also softened, mainly pressured by a combination of factors including reduced steel production in China, rising port inventories, and weakening downstream demand. ⑷ The Panamax index fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, declining 20 points, or 1.1%, to 1801 points, with its average daily earnings decreasing by $182 to $16,207. (5) The Handysize vessel index fell 6 points or 0.5% to 1320 points, and the small and medium-sized vessel market was not spared from this general decline.

21:45:38

ECB Governing Council member Kochel: The next move in interest rates remains unclear; the best strategy is to wait and see.

21:43:39

ECB Governing Council member Koch stated that inflation expectations are relatively stable and the ECB is currently in a comfortable position. Even if risks have not yet materialized or worsened in the near term, they remain high.

21:41:46

The euro has just touched the 0.9300 level against the Swiss franc, currently trading at 0.9300, up 0.21% on the day.

21:40:03

[Yuejiang Launches World's First Home Intelligent Robot RoverX1 for 7499 Yuan] ⑴ Sina Technology reported on Monday that Yuejiang officially launched the world's first home intelligent robot, RoverX1, priced at 7499 yuan. This intelligent robot dog, rooted in industrial technology, is the first to achieve a complete experience of "useful, easy to use, and frequently used" embodied intelligence in the home setting. ⑵ It is reported that the product is equipped with a dual-vision tracking system, an all-terrain wheeled leg structure, and intelligent load-bearing capacity. Compared to similar products on the market, RoverX1 is no longer limited to superficial interactions such as "shaking hands and dancing," but combines deep AI technology with practical functions, aiming to become a practical intelligent robot in the home, covering multiple scenarios such as outdoor adventure, home security, programming education, and emotional companionship.

21:39:45

[JPMorgan Chase: AI Capex May Have Greater Upside Potential] ⑴ On Monday, JPMorgan Chase released a report stating that US corporate quarterly capital expenditures have exceeded market expectations, while the full-year capital expenditure guidance for mega-AI companies has also been revised upwards again. Based on this, the bank expects a significant increase in investment spending growth in the AI sector in 2026. ⑵ The JPMorgan Chase strategy team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, further stated that the current market consensus for capital expenditures within the next 12 months has been revised upwards by approximately 4 percentage points from 35% last week, rising to 39%.

21:37:06

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,020.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,020.31/ounce, up 0.43% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,031.70/ounce, up 0.88% on the day.

21:35:46

Brazil's National Petroleum Institute (NPC) reported that Brazil's oil production in September was 3.915 million barrels per day, a 12.7% increase year-on-year.

21:31:20

[US Government Shutdown Impacts Economic Barometers, Major Data Releases Disrupted] ⑴ The partial shutdown of the US federal government, which began on October 1st, has lasted for over a month, causing agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Census Bureau to suspend the collection and release of the vast majority of economic data. ⑵ Key indicators directly affected include: the non-farm payroll report scheduled for November 7th, the Consumer Price Index for November 13th, and the Producer Price Index and retail sales data for November 14th, all of which have been confirmed to be postponed. ⑶ Private sector data releases are largely normal; the Manufacturing PMI for November 3rd, the ADP Employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for November 5th, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November 7th will continue to provide market references. ⑷ This shutdown has created a significant information gap for policymakers and investors in assessing the health of the labor market, the inflation trajectory, and the strength of consumption and investment, increasing market uncertainty. (5) The data black hole continues to expand. In the four weeks leading up to November 20, more than 20 government statistics, including housing starts, industrial output, and trade data, will be forced to be suspended, with only a few reports, such as the Fed meeting minutes, being retained.

21:27:31

Russia's Tuapse refinery suspends crude oil reception after attack on port.

21:26:45

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1580.00/oz mark, and is currently trading at $1579.90/oz, down 1.21% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1591.5/oz, up 1.02% on the day.

21:26:43

[Goldman Sachs Warns: US Government Shutdown Could Have the Largest Economic Impact on Record] ⑴ In a recent report, Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips points out that the current US government shutdown could have the largest economic impact on record, exceeding the previous record of 35 days set in 2018-19. ⑵ This shutdown is not only longer, but also significantly broader in scope, affecting everything from air traffic control to the federal food stamp program. ⑶ Model predictions show that if the shutdown continues until November 12 (approximately six weeks), it will reduce the annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter by 1.15 percentage points. ⑷ Although the economy is expected to recover in the first quarter of 2026, the continued shutdown is putting increasing pressure on Congress to resolve the deadlock.

21:19:20

[Canadian Stock Index Futures Rise] ⑴ Futures tracking the Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index rose on Monday, primarily driven by gains in gold mining stocks ahead of key earnings reports from commodity giants. ⑵ Frank Nevada became the focus of the mining sector ahead of today's key reports. ⑶ Meanwhile, oil producers faced pressure as traders weighed expected December production increases from OPEC and its allies against signs of weak global demand. ⑷ Canadian Natural Resources Corp. is scheduled to report earnings today, with revenue expected to grow but profits to narrow. ⑸ Gibson Energy will also report earnings, with both revenue and profits expected to decline. ⑹ Investors await the release of Canada's October manufacturing purchasing managers' index later today, as well as key employment data later this week. ⑺ Shopify, Fortis, the Industrial Alliance, and Intec are scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday. ⑻ Meanwhile, markets are also closely watching US-Canada relations after Prime Minister Mark Carney apologized to US President Donald Trump for a political ad that has triggered new tariffs and a temporary halt to trade negotiations.

21:17:12

[Singapore's Manufacturing Growth Stagnates] ⑴ Singapore's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell 0.1 points to 50 in October, slightly lower than September's 50.1, indicating that the pace of manufacturing expansion has stalled. ⑵ The PMI for the electronics sector, which accounts for about 40% of total manufacturing output, fell 0.3 points to 50.4, a slight decline from the previous reading of 50.7, but the sector still maintained its fifth consecutive month of growth.

21:13:36

【WTI Crude Oil (CONC) 1-Hour Price Analysis】 The current WTI crude oil price trend is weak and volatile, with the latest price at 60.87, and intraday highs and lows at 61.50 and 60.59 respectively. Resistance is at 61.20-61.30 (the recent high testing area), and support is at 60.60-60.70 (the intraday low and multiple touches). Based on time series analysis, the recent price decline from the November 3rd high indicates a short-term downward trend; it is expected to maintain volatility or a slight downward movement in the future, with attention focused on fluctuations around 60.80.

21:13:09

November 3rd US Market Update: Support and Resistance Levels for 18 Commodities (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, and 10 Currency Pairs) Details>

21:10:52

[SNB in a Wait-and-See Stance: Temporary Inflation Decline Fails to Shake Interest Rate Stability] ⑴ Pansen Macro Analysts point out that although Switzerland's October inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0.1%, the central bank's policymakers have clearly stated that they will not be affected by the single-month data and will maintain their policy stance. ⑵ SNB President Schlegel recently released hawkish signals, expecting inflation to resume its upward trend in the coming months, weakening the case for an immediate easing of monetary policy. ⑶ Analysts predict that the inflation rate may fall to -0.3% in February next year due to declining rent inflation and lower electricity prices, but the central bank's focus is on the medium-term inflation outlook rather than short-term fluctuations. ⑷ According to the central bank's latest guidance, it will only consider lowering the key interest rate into negative territory if medium-term inflation expectations remain persistently below zero by the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028. ⑸ Based on the above framework, the market expects the SNB to most likely hold rates steady in December and maintain the current interest rate level throughout 2026, forming an exceptionally long policy plateau.

21:10:37

[The Swiss National Bank Enters Wait-and-See Mode, with Exceptionally Strict Threshold for Interest Rate Cuts] ⑴ UBS economists point out that the Swiss National Bank needs to observe more signs of deflation before considering further interest rate cuts; the current inflation level of 0.1% is close to the price stability target. ⑵ The central bank's internal assessment believes that the current inflation outlook is largely in line with the target, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on economic growth is expected to be relatively limited, weakening the necessity for immediate monetary easing. ⑶ If the possibility of restarting negative interest rate policies is considered, three conditions must be met simultaneously: a significant deterioration in the Swiss economic outlook, further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank to narrow the interest rate differential, and continued upward pressure on the Swiss franc. ⑷ The inflation rate in October slightly decreased from 0.2% to 0.1%, indicating that price pressures continued to weaken, but it has not yet reached the key threshold for triggering central bank action. ⑸ The current monetary policy stance leans towards maintaining the status quo; investors should pay attention to the potential impact of subsequent inflation data and the European Central Bank's policy moves on the Swiss National Bank's decisions.

21:06:48

China's port inventory of imported soybeans as of November 3rd

Previous : 814.02 Forecast : -

Published Value 817.41

21:06:42

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1590.00/oz mark, and is currently trading at $1589.79/oz, down 0.59% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1598.8/oz, up 1.49% on the day.

21:06:34

Commercial inventories of soybean oil in key regions across China as of October 31

Previous : 60.71 Forecast : -

Published Value 59.28

21:06:25

Commercial palm oil inventories in key regions across China as of October 31

Previous : 125.03 Forecast : -

Published Value 121.58

21:05:30

Singapore's SIPMM Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 50.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 50

21:05:04

The total volume of new car sales in South Africa in October

Previous : 54700 Forecast : -

Published Value 55956

21:04:55

The annual rate of total new car sales in South Africa in October

Previous : 24.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 16%

21:04:07

Canada's National economic confidence Index for the week ending October 31

Previous : 49.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.80

21:03:33

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1600.15/ounce, up 0.06% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1606.2/ounce, up 1.96% on the day.

21:00:02

Brazil's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 46.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 48.20

20:59:30

[Spot Gold (XAU) 15-Minute Price Analysis] The current spot gold price is 4010.02. Intraday trading saw an initial rise to 4027.87 before retracing to around 3997, indicating a recent upward trend. Resistance is around 4015 (based on the 21:00 high), and support is at 4000 (based on the 20:30 low). Based on time series trend analysis, a short-term upward move may continue to test the 4015 resistance; a break above this level would target 4020, otherwise, a pullback and consolidation are possible.

20:59:26

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Metals Market] ⑴ The new gold value-added tax policy has different impacts on the gold financial market and the spot trading market. On the one hand, it has driven some off-exchange transactions to the exchange, and on the other hand, the sales costs of downstream investment gold bars and gold jewelry have increased. ⑵ Gold prices dipped slightly in early trading today, hitting a low of 911 yuan, briefly breaking through last week's first support level of 915 yuan before quickly rebounding. The effectiveness of this price level as the lower edge of an important bullish trading range has been initially verified. ⑶ The short-term gold price trading range remains focused on 915-926 yuan. In terms of trading, it is crucial to pay close attention to changes in trading volume: if there is an increase in open interest and a breakout above 926 yuan, the upside target could be the 935 yuan gap; if there is a rebound with reduced open interest, long positions should be closed for profit in a timely manner. ⑷ Several Federal Reserve officials spoke out intensively after this week's interest rate meeting. Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammarck explicitly stated their opposition to this week's interest rate cut decision, while Fed Governor Waller called for continued interest rate cuts. (5) Despite the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, given the continued disruptions to copper mines both domestically and internationally, the persistently negative copper concentrate import index, tight supply expectations, and escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper prices will likely remain supported in the future. The overall strategy remains to buy on dips. (6) LME inventories remain low, and while domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels, export windows are open, and demand is relatively stable. Considering the continued oversupply in the domestic market, the upside potential for Shanghai zinc prices is limited. (7) The overall supply and demand for alumina remains relatively loose, with both operating capacity and inventory at high levels in the short term. Short-term fundamental drivers remain weak, but the market shows some signs of bottoming out. Future attention should be paid to whether production companies will reduce production due to losses. (8) Today, aluminum-related commodities saw a significant increase in open interest and upward movement, possibly based on positive long-term demand expectations and the recovery of the copper-aluminum price ratio, with bullish funds entering the market in large numbers. (9) Production cuts by Century Aluminum and next year's production cuts by Mozambique aluminum plants are expected to tighten overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable, but inventory reduction is slow due to high aluminum prices and weak downstream demand. (10) Overall, given the mixed macroeconomic environment and fundamental factors, the outlook for Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum remains unchanged, with a strategy of buying on dips. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the risk of mining disruptions before the Guinea elections on December 28th, and the negative feedback effect of high aluminum prices on demand.

20:57:38

[OpenAI Responds to Concerns: 2027 IPO Possible, Short Selling Welcomed] On Monday, OpenAI CEO Altman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella addressed questions regarding cooperation, computing power, and development. Altman stated that revenue far exceeds $13 billion and many people want to hold shares; he denied that OpenAI will go bankrupt, welcomed short selling, and stated that no IPO date has been set, suggesting 2027 would be a more suitable timeframe.

20:52:23

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Shows Divergent Trends] ⑴ In the crude oil market, after OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, it will suspend the production increase plan in the first quarter of next year. Given the unclear impact of Russian sanctions, the organization is adopting a strategic wait-and-see approach. With positive macroeconomic support, a short-term bullish strategy is recommended. ⑵ Fuel oil rebounded following crude oil, with expectations of reduced high-sulfur fuel oil supply due to continued sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe. With positive macroeconomic expectations, the downside is limited, and a short-term bullish strategy is maintained. ⑶ The glass market was driven by the "coal-to-gas" policy in the Shahe region. Four coal-fired production lines stopped feeding from November 2nd, affecting daily capacity by 2,400 tons. Supply contraction coupled with improved production and sales in the Shahe region, coupled with a double decline in supply and demand, showed resilience in the market. A slightly bullish oscillating strategy is recommended. ⑷ The soda ash market remained stable, with total manufacturer inventory at 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons month-on-month. The commissioning of the Alashan Phase II project may be delayed, and coal cost support is relatively strong. A slightly bullish oscillating strategy is recommended. (5) The caustic soda market remained weak, with prices in Shandong and Jiangsu provinces showing a slight downward trend. Supply remained ample, with no peak season restocking demand observed in non-aluminum industries. Coupled with expectations of alumina production cuts and high inventory pressure, the fundamentals showed no signs of improvement, and a short-selling strategy was maintained. (6) The methanol market broke down, with spot prices in Taicang falling by 55 yuan to 2102 yuan, and prices in Inner Mongolia North Line falling by 25 yuan to 1980 yuan. Port inventories remained high, with ample supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are expected to remain low, and a short-selling strategy was recommended.

20:51:02

[Turkish Refiners Accelerate "De-Russian" Transformation, Changing the Global Crude Oil Trade Landscape] ⑴ Following US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Turkish refiners have initiated plans to reduce their purchases of Russian crude oil, impacting December's supply arrangements. ⑵ Turkish listed refiners Tupras and Azerbaijan's state-owned oil company Socar are actively seeking alternative sources, having already purchased multiple shipments of non-Russian crude oil from Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan. ⑶ As Russia's third-largest buyer of crude oil, Turkey, under pressure from US sanctions, has decided to join the Western camp, using purchase restrictions to pressure Russia. However, sources emphasize that the country currently has neither the ability nor the intention to completely stop importing Russian oil. ⑷ This adjustment will reshape the flow of crude oil trade in the Black Sea region, potentially pushing up Middle Eastern and Caspian crude oil premiums in the short term, while Russia will need to find new buyers for its existing export share.

20:50:46

[Tesla's European Market Deeply Diverges: Sharp Drop in Northern Europe, Slight Increase in France] ⑴ Tesla experienced a precipitous drop in sales in Norway, Sweden, and Denmark in October, with year-on-year declines of 50%, 89%, and 86% respectively. In Sweden, monthly sales were only 133 units, even lagging behind Porsche. ⑵ The French market became a rare bright spot, achieving positive growth for the second consecutive month, with sales increasing slightly by 2.4%, but still slightly lower than the overall market growth rate of 2.9%. ⑶ In the first nine months of this year, Tesla's cumulative sales in Europe declined by 28.5% year-on-year, reflecting the dual predicament of an aging product line and intensified competition. Its smaller and aging model lineup is struggling to cope with the rapid new product launches from traditional manufacturers and Chinese brands. ⑷ Industry experts point out that Tesla is losing its market exclusivity. The CEO of an electric vehicle buying website emphasized that "Tesla no longer has its own market," and consumers are facing unprecedented brand choices. ⑸ In addition to product competition, some European consumers are resistant to Musk's political stance. His support for Trump's election campaign and his endorsement of far-right parties in Europe last year may affect the brand image.

20:49:51

The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced that non-dollar metal options have not been traded for several years, and therefore decided to suspend trading.

20:49:33

[Caixin Futures: Mixed Factors in the Ferrous Metals Market] ⑴ The steel market is exhibiting a volatile pattern. Pig iron production is declining at a slower pace, demand is nearing its peak, and high inventory levels limit price upside. The pricing of the rebar 01 contract is constrained by off-peak electricity costs for independent electric arc furnaces in East China. Policy support and expectations of coal mine supply contraction limit downside. A short-term strategy of selling on rallies is recommended. ⑵ The iron ore supply and demand structure is weak. Global shipments remain high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. Before steel mills initiate large-scale restocking, the weak reality and pessimistic expectations jointly suppress valuations. A short position in the industry chain is recommended. ⑶ The coking coal market continues to experience tight supply. Strengthened safety supervision in production areas, coupled with production disruptions at some coal mines, is driving up expectations for a third round of spot price increases. Although downstream procurement is active, coking plants have limited room for further restocking. A short-term buying strategy on pullbacks is recommended, avoiding chasing high prices. (4) Coking coal production is constrained by environmental protection and maintenance factors. Cost support and high pig iron prices support expectations of a third round of price increases, but compressed steel mill profits limit the efficiency of price transmission. The long coal/short coking coal arbitrage strategy can be maintained. (5) The manganese silicon market remains volatile at low levels. Manganese ore shipments remain stable while factory operating rates have slightly declined. Continued inventory accumulation has led to a stalemate in the long/short game. Funding is cautious, with the top 20 positions mainly reducing holdings, lacking a clear directional driver.

20:46:43

The London Metal Exchange (LME) announced that it will suspend trading of metal options denominated in currencies other than the US dollar, effective November 10, 2025.

20:40:49

[Brazilian Soybean Planting Delayed, Uneven Rainfall Raises Supply Concerns] ⑴ Data from consulting firm AgRural on Monday showed that as of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress had reached 47% of the expected area, a slight improvement from the previous week's 36%, but significantly lagging behind the 54% of the same period last year. ⑵ The delay in planting progress is mainly attributed to uneven rainfall distribution in the main producing areas, which may lead to a delay in the soybean growth cycle and increase the climate risk in the later growth stages. ⑶ During the same period, the first-season corn planting in Brazil's central-southern region reached 60% of the expected area, roughly the same as the 59% of the same period last year, indicating that corn is relatively less affected by weather. ⑷ As the world's largest soybean exporter, Brazil's delayed planting progress may affect the subsequent global supply rhythm, and the market needs to closely monitor the potential impact of South American weather changes on crop yields.

20:39:34

A Wall Street conspiracy has been exposed, and the dollar's 100-point level may be a bull trap. Details>

20:39:06

[US Crude Oil Technical Analysis] From the 240-minute candlestick chart, US crude oil is exhibiting a range-bound trading pattern. After hitting a low of $55.96, the price rebounded, subsequently rising to a high of $62.59, marking the completion of a substantial technical rebound. This rebound established the upper and lower boundaries of the current trading range, providing an important technical reference framework for subsequent price movements. Currently, the price is trading near the $61 level. Observing the candlestick pattern, the price has repeatedly encountered resistance and fallen back in this area, indicating strong bearish sentiment at this level, making a significant breakout difficult in the short term. On the downside, the $59.50 to $59.25 area forms a significant support zone; this range has accumulated a large amount of bullish defensive positions, constituting a crucial bottom line for the current market. If the price breaks below this support zone, it could open up further downside potential towards the previous low of $55.96. The MACD indicator is fluctuating around the zero line, with the DIFF line at 0.16, the DEA line at 0.10, and the MACD histogram value at 0.12. From an indicator perspective, the MACD line and signal line are running above the zero axis, but the two lines are relatively close together, indicating that the bullish momentum is somewhat limited. The histogram, after a period of contraction in the green bars, has turned to expansion in the red bars, but the strength is not significant, indicating that while the bulls have the intention to counterattack, the upward momentum is still insufficient. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral level of 50.27, neither entering the overbought zone nor touching the oversold zone; this value is precisely near the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment. Looking at the RSI's trajectory, after falling back from the overbought zone, the indicator is currently consolidating in the middle range, reflecting a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces in the market.

20:38:17

OPEC+ has exhausted its "first quarter suspension" strategy, but the market is not buying it: will the next step be to fully reopen the floodgates? Details>

20:37:22

[Spanish Electric Vehicle Market Shows Divergence: Tesla Plunges 30% in a Single Month, But Overall Market Doubles] ⑴ Tesla's new car registrations in Spain plummeted 30.6% year-on-year to 393 units in October, a stark contrast to the localized slump experienced by US electric vehicle manufacturers. ⑵ From January to October this year, Tesla's cumulative registrations in Spain still maintained a 7.6% year-on-year growth, indicating that short-term fluctuations have not altered the long-term expansion trend. ⑶ During the same period, overall electric vehicle sales in Spain achieved a remarkable doubling, with a growth rate of 100%, reflecting the accelerating popularization of new energy vehicles. ⑷ In October, overall new car sales in Spain increased by 16% year-on-year, with both traditional gasoline vehicles and electric vehicles driving market expansion. ⑸ Data reveals that the Spanish electric vehicle market exhibits characteristics of "total expansion and brand differentiation," with local consumers shifting from reliance on a single brand to diverse choices.

20:36:26

[Undercurrents in the US Treasury Market: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Intertwined with Two Major Risk Events] ⑴ The US Treasury yield curve is showing a "bull market steepening" trend, with the 2-year yield falling by 2 basis points while the 30-year yield remains stable, reflecting market optimism that rising interest rate cut expectations and the end of quantitative tightening will improve liquidity. ⑵ This week faces two key risk events: the Supreme Court hearing on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and a government shutdown that could break the 35-day record. These two factors are suppressing market risk appetite. ⑶ According to Polymarket's forecast, the probability of the Supreme Court rejecting the tariffs has risen from 60% to 64%. If passed, it could trigger short-term market turmoil, but Trump is expected to maintain the current tariff level through other legal tools. ⑷ The government shutdown has lasted for more than 30 days, and analysts believe that unless a major unforeseen event occurs, it is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. This has led to delays in the release of many economic data and affected the real economy. (5) Manufacturing surveys show that businesses continue to be troubled by the triple uncertainties of tariffs, immigration policies, and government shutdowns. Although the October ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise slightly to 49.5, it will still remain in contraction territory. (6) Trading strategy recommendations include two-way trading within the recent range (10-year yield 4.12%-4%), focusing on the fluctuation range of 4.10%-4.06%, while also paying attention to the guidance of Fed officials' speeches on market expectations.

20:34:27

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,010.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,010.37/ounce, up 0.19% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,022.40/ounce, up 0.65% on the day.

20:28:57

[A Dramatic Shift in India's Edible Oil Import Structure: Palm Oil Plunges to a Five-Year Low, Soybean Oil Defies the Trend and Reaches a New High] ⑴ India's palm oil imports in October plummeted 27.6% month-on-month to 600,000 metric tons, marking a five-month low and pushing total imports for the 2024/25 marketing year to a five-year low of 7.56 million metric tons. ⑵ Soybean oil imports showed a polarized trend: October imports decreased by 17.1% month-on-month to 417,000 metric tons, but the total for the 2024/25 marketing year surged 61.6% to a record 5.56 million metric tons. ⑶ Sunflower oil imports in October declined by 6.4% month-on-month to 255,000 metric tons, and the total for the 2024/25 marketing year decreased by 17.7% to 2.88 million metric tons, a three-year low. (4) Total edible oil imports in October plummeted 20.7% month-on-month to 1.27 million metric tons, the lowest in five months, but the total for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% to 16 million metric tons. (5) The data reveals that India is significantly adjusting its edible oil import structure, with palm oil's share continuing to shrink and soybean oil achieving strong substitution due to its price advantage, reflecting a reshaping of global vegetable oil trade flows.

20:28:52

Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Credit issues can reveal certain aspects of policy stance. A series of seemingly unrelated credit problems could be a sign that policy is being too tight.

20:25:25

Federal Reserve Governor Milan: The Fed's understanding of population size and other factors impacting the economy has increased confidence in its forecasts, making alternative inflation data less useful. Regarding the labor market, there are indeed signs of a slowdown.

20:23:48

Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the Fed may reach the neutral rate through a series of 50-basis-point rate cuts, but does not need a 75-basis-point cut; the economy is not dysfunctional, and he will not commit to voting against the rate again in December, as the situation may change. If the prediction comes true, he will advocate for another 50-basis-point rate cut. Over-reliance on data can make policy too lagging; policy should be formulated based on forecasts.

20:22:00

Federal Reserve's Milan: Changes in the neutral interest rate mean that despite the Fed's rate cuts, policy has been passively tightened. If the Fed maintains a restrictive policy stance, the likelihood of monetary policy triggering a recession will increase.

20:21:25

[Trump Says Peaceful Relations with China Are Better Than Confrontation] Following the consensus reached in the China-US trade negotiations, high-ranking US officials have made numerous statements, and the White House has also released a specific timetable for implementing the relevant consensus. US President Trump stated that cooperation with China can make the US "better." On the evening of November 2nd local time, CBS broadcast an interview with US President Trump. When discussing China-US relations, Trump stated that maintaining good relations with China is in the US's interest. On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter told two US media outlets that the US has no intention of decoupling from China. (CCTV.com)

20:20:19

Federal Reserve Bank of Milan: It is wrong to draw conclusions about monetary policy solely from financial conditions. While some financial indicators are relatively loose, housing conditions, for example, are tight. Private lending institutions point out that the current economic situation may be masking its more serious aspects.

20:18:27

Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes the Fed's policy is too tight.

20:18:20

[Sichuan Anyue Lemon Export Prices Hit Record High] As a major lemon export base in my country, Anyue, Sichuan, has seen a continued rise in lemon prices this year, leading to a surge in exports. At a lemon sorting center in Anyue, Sichuan, more than 260 workers are unpacking and trimming freshly harvested lemons, with transport vehicles constantly moving back and forth. Every day, this single sorting center alone processes 300 to 350 tons of lemons. This year, major lemon-producing regions worldwide have generally experienced reduced production, resulting in tight international supply and soaring export prices. The general manager of a food company stated that the peak export season will begin in October and continue until Christmas abroad. "Overseas customers' demand for our lemons is increasing, with an average annual increase of about 15% from 2023 to 2024 and 2025. This year's export prices are at a record high." (CCTV Finance)

20:12:03

[US Approves First Export of Nvidia Chips to UAE] According to the Financial Times, the US has approved the export of the latest Nvidia chips to the United Arab Emirates for the first time. In May, President Trump reached an agreement with the UAE president to build a massive artificial intelligence data center park in Abu Dhabi. The Middle East has become a key battleground in the global competition for artificial intelligence. However, Microsoft's project had previously been hampered by export controls imposed by the US Department of Commerce on high-performance Nvidia chips. Microsoft President Brad Smith stated that in September, the company "became the first company under the Trump administration to be granted permission to export Nvidia AI chips to the UAE." He added, "We won this license by meeting extremely stringent cybersecurity, physical security, and other security standards." Microsoft now plans to increase its investment in the UAE from $7.3 billion over the past three years to $7.9 billion between 2026 and 2029, with $5.5 billion earmarked for capital expenditures on AI and cloud infrastructure.

20:09:09

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized at a meeting of senior reserve commanders, "We will no longer adopt a defensive posture, but will continue to maintain an offensive operational posture."

20:08:33

UAE Media Office: Microsoft (MSFT.O) pledges to train and provide certifications for 1 million people in the UAE by 2027.

20:02:41

For the first time, the United States has allowed Microsoft to ship Nvidia AI chips to the United Arab Emirates for use.

20:02:26

The UAE Media Office stated that Microsoft will invest $15.2 billion in the UAE between 2023 and 2029.

20:01:17

A representative of the ZF (ZF) union in Germany said that the Schweinfurt plant has announced a furlough due to a chip shortage.

20:00:31

Deutsche Bank: Raised its price target for Amazon (AMZN.O) from $278 to $300, lowered its price target for Roblox (RBLX.N) from $150 to $140, and raised its price target for Tesla (TSLA.O) from $440 to $470.

19:56:06

[Iran to Launch First Nuclear-Powered Desalination Plant Next Year] On November 2nd local time, Iranian Vice President and Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Eslami, announced that Iran will launch its first nuclear-powered desalination plant next year. Eslami stated that the project will begin in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr, with a planned initial capacity of 70,000 cubic meters of seawater per day. The construction of desalination facilities was planned alongside Iran's plans to build nuclear power plants. The nuclear-powered desalination project aligns with Iran's goal of integrating its nuclear industry with the daily lives and real-world challenges of its people. The nuclear-powered desalination plant utilizes the heat or electricity generated by a nuclear reactor to remove salt and other minerals from seawater. (CCTV)

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4013.18	10.24 (0.26%)
XAG	48.224	-0.431 (-0.89%)
CONC	60.97	-0.01 (-0.02%)
OILC	64.78	0.14 (0.22%)
USD	99.850	0.145 (0.15%)
EURUSD	1.1520	-0.0016 (-0.14%)
GBPUSD	1.3140	-0.0007 (-0.05%)
USDCNH	7.1260	0.0051 (0.07%)

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