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2026-04-09 Thursday

2026-04-09

19:08:14

[Italgas' 6-Year Eurobond Subscription Surpasses €2.5 Billion, Spread Anchored at 78 Basis Points] ⑴ Italgas, the Italian gas infrastructure operator, launched its 6-year euro benchmark bond issuance on Thursday, with subscriptions exceeding €2.5 billion. The final issuance spread is set at 78 basis points above the swap rate midpoint, with an expected issuance size of approximately €650 million. ⑵ The initial price guidance for the bond was approximately 110 basis points above the swap rate midpoint. After book-building, the spread narrowed significantly by 32 basis points. Settlement will be completed on April 16, with a maturity date of April 16, 2032. Coupon payments are made annually. ⑶ BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Crédit Agricole, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase, Mediterranean Investment Bank, and Société Générale are acting as joint bookrunners, with Société Générale also serving as the structure designer. (4) Italgas' current credit ratings are Moody's Baa2 stable outlook, S&P BBB+ stable outlook, and Fitch BBB+ stable outlook, with the expected bond rating consistent with the issuer's rating. (5) Comparable bond data in the secondary market shows that Italgas' outstanding bonds maturing in June 2032 with a coupon rate of 4.125% have a spread of approximately 73 basis points, and its zero-coupon bonds maturing in February 2033 have a spread of approximately 80 basis points. The pricing of this new bond is within a reasonable extension range of the existing yield curve. (6) Among comparable Italian utilities in the same period, the spread of bonds maturing in 2031 for the State Power Corporation is approximately 64 basis points, for the Railway Network Corporation's bonds maturing in 2032 it is approximately 63 basis points, and for the Natural Gas Storage Corporation's bonds maturing in 2032 it is approximately 72 basis points. (7) Analysts believe that against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty fueling risk aversion in Europe, Italgas, with its regulated asset stability and strategic position in Italy's natural gas infrastructure, still successfully attracted over 4 times oversubscription, highlighting the scarce allocation value of defensive utility bonds in the current market conditions.

19:00:17

South Africa's manufacturing output monthly rate in February

Previous : 1.50% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -2.20%

Previous

19:00:09

South Africa's manufacturing production index for February, year-on-year rate

Previous : -0.70% Forecast : -0.30%

Published Value -2.80%

Previous

18:59:54

[Dubai Aerospace and Blackstone Join Forces to Target Global Capacity Gap with Billions in Aircraft Leasing Funds] ⑴ Dubai-based aerospace company and Blackstone Credit & Insurance announced an agreement on Thursday to jointly launch an aircraft leasing co-investment program called Equator, targeting an annual deployment of approximately $1.6 billion. ⑵ The program will build a portfolio of commercial aircraft leasing assets for global airlines. Dubai Aerospace will be responsible for acquiring aircraft resources from third-party channels, while its aircraft investor services division will handle asset management and operations. ⑶ This collaboration marks another significant step by the alternative asset management giant into the aviation finance sector. The industry landscape, where aircraft supply bottlenecks continue to drive up leasing rates, is attracting increasing amounts of institutional capital. ⑷ Blackstone Credit & Insurance's Infrastructure & Asset Credit Group manages over $100 billion in assets, and the Equator program's investor base will also include funds from funds managed by its strategic partner, ITE Management. (5) The statement discloses that Dubai Airways' fleet comprises approximately 700 aircraft, of which over 100 aircraft, valued at more than $4 billion, are under third-party management by the end of 2025. The company is currently fulfilling its service provider responsibilities under 17 management agreements for institutional and financial investors. (6) Analysts believe that the global aviation industry continues to face the dual pressures of delayed new aircraft deliveries and the retirement of older models during the post-pandemic recovery process. Aircraft leasing assets, with their inflation-resistant cash flow characteristics, are becoming a rare and stable return target in the alternative investment field.

18:59:43

[Congo Makes its First foray into the International Bond Market, Raising Funds with a 9% High Yield to Test Resource Credit Premium] ⑴ Two informed sources revealed on Thursday that the Democratic Republic of Congo has officially launched its first-ever international bond issuance, planning to raise funds from global investors through 5-year and 10-year US dollar-denominated notes, leveraging its central position in the global key mineral market and its warming relations with the United States. ⑵ Although the final issuance size has not yet been finalized, the country previously disclosed plans to raise $750 million initially, as part of its $1.5 billion euro bond issuance plan announced earlier this year, with the funds specifically earmarked for infrastructure construction. ⑶ Both bonds are senior unsecured installment structures, with an initial guidance yield of approximately 9.125% for the 2032 maturity bond and approximately 10% for the 2037 maturity bond. The high coupon rate reflects the market's cautious pricing of its sovereign credit risk. ⑷ This bond issuance window comes at a time of increasingly fierce global competition for key minerals in the energy transition, and the strategic pursuit by the United States and its allies to diversify supply chains away from China adds additional geopolitical appeal to Congolese mining assets. (5) S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country's credit outlook to positive in January, citing strong economic growth prospects and improved foreign exchange reserves and tax collection capabilities. (6) The outbreak of war with Iran brought emerging market bond issuance to a standstill, but the international capital market environment has marginally improved after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement this week, providing a rare window of opportunity for Congo's debut. (7) In its issuance circular released on Wednesday, the country frankly acknowledged key vulnerabilities, including its heavy reliance on mining exports, continued instability in the conflict-ridden eastern regions, and the structural constraint that concessional financing still accounts for 97% of its total external debt. (8) Sporadic clashes with Rwandan-backed rebels, commodity price volatility, and infrastructure bottlenecks could erode fiscal resilience, while its concentrated reliance on major trading partners also poses a risk of economic diversification.

18:43:16

[France Rejects Hormuz Transit Fee, Insists Freedom of Navigation in International Waterways is Not Tradeable] ⑴ French Foreign Minister Barro stated on Thursday that he rejects any proposal to charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that freedom of navigation in international waters is a common property of humanity and cannot be violated by any obstruction or transit fees. ⑵ In a radio interview, Barro further pointed out that such charges would constitute a blatant violation of international law, and Iran must strictly abide by the rules of passage established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. ⑶ Since the US-Israel military action against Iran on February 28, Tehran has virtually brought shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill. Media and data analysis showed that only a very small number of ships actually transited the strait after the ceasefire agreement took effect earlier this week. ⑷ France's strong stance echoes the earlier call by the CEO of the UAE's ADNOC for the unconditional opening of the strait, highlighting the zero-tolerance attitude of major economies towards the weaponization of a critical energy chokepoint. (5) Analysts believe that if Iran insists on using the right of passage through the Straits as a bargaining chip in geopolitical games, the countermeasures of major European powers in terms of diplomacy and potential escort will gradually emerge, and the dispute over the order of navigation in the Straits is extending from military confrontation to international legal games.

18:40:44

[India's Inflation Rises Slightly Against the Trend; Gold Price Plunge Effectively Offsets Oil Price Shock] ⑴ A survey of 45 economists indicates that India's March Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise only moderately to 3.48% year-on-year, a slight increase from 3.21% in February. The approximately 11% plunge in gold prices that month partially offset the pressure from soaring fuel prices triggered by the Iran-Iraq War. ⑵ Although the US-Israel military action against Iran, which began on February 28, drove global oil prices up and led to a severe fuel shortage in India, New Delhi effectively buffered the price transmission at the retail level by reducing the consumption tax on gasoline and diesel, keeping overall prices relatively stable. ⑶ Aditya Vias, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealers, pointed out that food inflation remained benign thanks to ample supply, while the significant decline in gold prices from their highs alleviated upward pressure on core inflation. ⑷ HDFC Bank's calculations show that fuel inflation rose approximately 11% year-on-year in March, compared to only 0.1% in February. The transmission of oil prices to overall prices is expected to gradually appear with a lag. (5) Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at Bank of America Securities, emphasized that the transmission effect of rising oil prices has a time lag; even after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was announced on Wednesday, Brent crude futures are still about one-third higher than their February levels. (6) After keeping its key policy rate unchanged as expected on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India raised its average inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.6%, highlighting its vigilance regarding the dual risks to growth and prices. (7) Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel components, is expected to rise slightly to 3.53% from 3.41% in February, while the inflation rate based on the wholesale price index is expected to jump significantly from 2.13% to 3.04%. (8) Analysts believe that the sharp drop in gold prices in March stemmed from emergency selling by traders to cover margin calls in the stock market; this unconventional transmission path unexpectedly became an important buffer variable in smoothing out India's inflation readings.

18:39:45

[Middle East Crude Oil Benchmarks Diverge Further, Dubai Premium Slips to Monthly Low While Oman Strengthens] ⑴ The Dubai spot premium for Middle Eastern benchmark crude oil fell to a one-month low on Thursday, with the settlement price narrowing by $1.83 to $12.56 per barrel compared to swap contracts, while the premiums for Upper Oman and Murban crude oils saw slight increases. ⑵ Trading in the spot window was thin, with Unipec, as the seller, placing numerous orders and completing transactions with buyers such as Trafigura, Vitol, Mitsui, BP, and Total, with prices ranging from $99 to $102 per barrel. ⑶ The weakening Dubai premium is partly attributed to the mean reversion effect after Trafigura's strong buying in last month pushed up the base. Currently, market participants tend to maintain a light position and wait and see until the prospects for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz become clearer. (4) The settlement price of Oman crude oil futures was $101.88 per barrel, a significant rebound from $99.06 per barrel in the previous trading day. Its premium over Dubai crude also widened from $12.25 to $12.44. (5) Crude oil spot prices generally strengthened in tandem with futures, with Brent and WTI crude rising by 3% intraday. Market concerns persisted about whether the fragile two-week ceasefire agreement could guarantee the smooth flow of energy through the Hormuz. (6) Glencore chartered a tanker to load crude oil from the Middle East for shipment to Asia, while several ships in the Gulf region stood by to transit the strait. (7) Institutional calculations show that Russia's largest single oil tax revenue in April will double to $9 billion, driven by soaring oil and gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli military action against Iran. (8) Goldman Sachs lowered its second-quarter target price for Brent crude to $90 per barrel and its target price for WTI crude to $87 per barrel on Wednesday evening, as the geopolitical premium cooled temporarily after the ceasefire agreement was reached.

18:29:27

[Palm Oil Recovers Losses on Crude Oil Rebound, Indonesia's B50 Timeline Mystery Suppresses Gains] ⑴ Malaysian palm oil futures closed up over 1% on Thursday, with the benchmark June contract settling at 4,642 ringgit per tonne, a technical correction following a more than 3% plunge in the previous trading day, driven by a rebound in crude oil prices. ⑵ Bajani, head of commodities research at Mumbai-based brokerage Sunvin Group, pointed out that confusing signals surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending timeline continue to weigh on market sentiment, with uncertainty remaining about whether the policy applies only to subsidy recipients or covers all entities. ⑶ Although the Indonesian Ministry of Energy has issued a ministerial decree setting an implementation timeline for the biofuel blending directive, the ambiguity in the implementation details makes it difficult for the market to anchor expectations for increased industrial demand for palm oil. ⑷ Weak performance in substitute oil futures from the Chinese market also limited the upside potential of palm oil. Dalian soybean oil futures closed down 0.68%, palm oil futures fell 0.52%, while Chicago soybean oil rose slightly by 0.58%. (5) The rebound in crude oil prices constitutes a core supporting variable. Market doubts persist regarding the fragility of the two-week ceasefire agreement in maintaining unimpeded energy navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The stabilization of Brent crude strengthens the economic viability of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. (6) The slight weakening of the Malaysian ringgit against the US dollar by 0.15% reduces the marginal cost of palm oil priced in local currency for foreign currency holders, providing a slight boost to export demand. (7) Analysts believe that the short-term trend of palm oil will depend on the clarity of Indonesia's B50 policy and the evolution of the Middle East situation. If the restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to push up crude oil premiums, the valuation support for palm oil on the biofuel demand side still has room for further strengthening.

18:26:44

[EU Wheat Harvest Forecast Slightly Adjusted, North African Self-Sufficiency Rise Squeezes Export Opportunities] ⑴ Consulting firm Expana released its monthly report on Thursday, slightly raising its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2026/27 by 100,000 tons to 128.7 million tons, citing generally favorable winter grain growing conditions. ⑵ Despite the month-on-month increase, this forecast remains significantly lower than the actual output of 137.1 million tons in 2025/26, indicating that the tight medium-term supply situation for EU wheat has not fundamentally changed despite the slight adjustment. ⑶ Expana noted that although the Middle East crisis has pushed up fertilizer costs, farmers are not expected to significantly reduce fertilizer use in the 2026 harvest season, with only a slight reduction likely at the end of the growing season. ⑷ Wheat and barley yields are still set at trend levels, slightly above the five-year average but far below the 2025 highs, while maize planting area is expected to fall to a historic low, with some farmers potentially switching to sunflowers, which require less fertilizer. (5) Exports are facing structural headwinds. Given that the harvest prospects in North Africa and the Middle East are better than previously expected, import demand in these regions will contract accordingly. Expana has therefore lowered its export outlook for EU soft wheat and barley for 2026/27. (6) The agency also judges that although oil prices have risen considerably, they are not enough to substantially suppress international grain seaborne trade. Increased freight costs are not currently the core variable affecting global grain trade flows. (7) The agency believes that in the complex situation of abundant North African harvest expectations and shipping risks in the Hormuz, EU wheat futures prices will be more subject to marginal changes in export demand. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor the guiding effect of actual North African yield data on import procurement pace.

18:26:25

[Singapore's Fuel Oil Inventories Plunge to 10-Week Low as Strait of Hormuz Restrictions Cut Off Middle Eastern Supply] ⑴ Data released by Enterprise Singapore on Thursday showed that Singapore's onshore residual fuel oil inventories fell 7.4% to 21.72 million barrels in the week ending April 8, the lowest level in ten weeks. ⑵ The sharp drop in inventories was mainly due to a significant contraction in fuel oil imports from the Middle East. Total imports fell sharply by 31.9% week-on-week to approximately 625,000 tons, as most Middle Eastern tankers remained unable to arrive due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑶ Brazil replaced the Middle East as Singapore's largest source of fuel oil supply that week, with imports of approximately 88,600 tons. Stable arrivals from Brazil in recent weeks have alleviated market anxieties about supply shortages to some extent. ⑷ In terms of specific trade flows, Malaysia ranked first in imports with approximately 154,600 tons, followed by Iraq and Brazil. South Korea and China were the main destinations for exports, receiving approximately 99,900 tons and 80,900 tons respectively. (5) Despite inventories falling below historical averages, Singapore fuel oil spot price spreads have softened in recent trading days, indicating that the market remains cautious about the strait's reopening soon. (6) Analysts point out that if strait restrictions continue, the Asian fuel oil market will face the dual challenges of a supply gap in the Middle East and the substitution of shipping capacity from Brazil. Low-sulfur fuel oil crack spreads may continue to fluctuate widely amid supply anxieties and weak demand.

18:20:19

[The Fed Awaits Inflation Decision; Leading Indicators Show Fastest Rise Since 2008] ⑴ The minutes of the Fed's March meeting revealed that some policymakers are uneasy about rising inflation. Despite a gradual reduction in policy rates since 2024, inflation remains stubbornly above the target range, and the price transmission effects of the Middle East conflict have not yet fully manifested in hard data. ⑵ Market focus shifts to the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be released on Thursday. The market widely expects the CPI to rise 0.9% month-on-month, pushing the year-on-year increase to 3.3%, which, if realized, would be the largest annual increase since May 2024. ⑶ State Street Bank's PriceStats model, which monitors millions of online consumer prices using web scraping technology, shows that March monthly inflation jumped 1.5% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since the series began in July 2008. (4) PriceStats model simultaneously recorded an annualized inflation rate of 4.0% in March, returning to its highest level since January 2023. Michael Metcalf, head of macro strategy at State Street, warned that the inflation picture has undergone a substantial shift in just one month. (5) Metcalf pointed out that early component data showed that non-energy sectors such as entertainment, electronics, and clothing also saw above-average monthly increases. If the price increases are not solely due to oil and gas cost transmission, the Fed's anxiety will significantly intensify. (6) Despite leading inflation indicators flashing red, the interest rate futures market is currently only pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a rate cut before the end of the year, far from reflecting any tightening expectations, indicating that the market is still in a wait-and-see phase regarding the Fed's policy path. (7) The subsequent trend will largely depend on whether energy prices can fall as the ceasefire agreement stabilizes, and the rate of transmission of oil prices to daily consumer goods prices. If the March CPI data exceeds expectations across the board, the market's pricing of the Fed's interest rate trajectory for the year may face a sharp correction.

18:19:47

[EU Warns of Stagflation: War Premium Eroding Growth Baseline] ⑴ EU Economic Commissioner Dombrovskis issued a clear warning to the European Parliament on Wednesday, stating that the EU economy is facing the risk of stagflation, with both rising inflation and economic stagnation, due to the impact of the war with Iran. ⑵ He pointed out that although a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran was announced this week, the long-term economic outlook remains shrouded in high uncertainty, and the tail risks of geopolitics are far from dissipating. ⑶ According to calculations by internal EU analytical models, under the assumption that supply disruptions are only short-term, economic growth will be revised downward by 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points from last autumn's forecast, while inflation will rise by an additional 1 percentage point. ⑷ Dombrovskis further extrapolated that if supply disruptions intensify and last longer, the economic growth loss in 2026 and 2027 will expand to 0.6 percentage points, and the rise in inflation will also increase accordingly. (5) Analysts believe that the stickiness of energy costs caused by the obstruction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the continued disruption of export expectations caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, is causing the prospects for the recovery of European manufacturing to face headwinds from both growth and prices. (6) The market will closely watch the European Central Bank's policy choices under the constraints of stagflation. If the economic growth outlook deteriorates further while inflation remains above the target, the room for maneuver in the monetary policy toolbox will become increasingly limited.

18:12:24

[Global Yield Spread Scan: US Treasuries Short-Term Pricing is Hawkish, Japanese Bonds Show Significant Advantage] ⑴ As of Wednesday, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note was 3.798%, lower only than Australia's 4.637% and the UK's 4.251% among major developed economies, and a premium of 123.7 basis points over the 2-year German bond. ⑵ The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was 4.290%, lower than the UK's 4.719% and Australia's 4.925%, but still 130.5 basis points higher than the 10-year German bond, indicating that the US Treasury yield curve is relatively hawkish in pricing inflation stickiness and policy rate paths. ⑶ Japanese bond yields are at an absolute low in the global yield spread pattern, with a 2-year yield of only 1.390%, 240.8 basis points lower than the US yield, and a 10-year yield of 2.397%, 189.3 basis points lower than the US yield, continuing to constitute a major source of liabilities for carry trades. (4) Institutional analysis points out that with the Iran war pushing up global inflation premiums and shipping disruptions in the Hormuz exacerbating supply chain uncertainty, the relatively firm yields on short-term US Treasury bonds reflect a continued narrowing of market bets on the extent of Fed rate cuts this year. (5) The interest rate spread between core and peripheral European countries remains narrowing. The premium of Italian 10-year bonds over German bonds is only 78.7 basis points, and the premium of French bonds is 64.7 basis points, indicating that the market's pricing of Eurozone sovereign risk premiums has not yet shown significant divergence. (6) It is worth noting that if the situation in the Middle East escalates again, triggering a surge in oil prices, Japanese bond yields may face upward pressure. At that time, a global carry trade unwinding wave may cause temporary disruptions to high-yield currencies and risk assets.

18:10:47

[Turkey Prepares for Protracted War, Finance Minister Hints at Additional Tools] ⑴ Turkish Finance Minister Şimşek stated on Thursday that if the ceasefire agreement reached this week between the US and Iran fails to be effectively maintained, the government is prepared to utilize a different set of policy tools to address the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict. ⑵ In an interview with Haberturk TV, Şimşek stated that the government's primary scenario is a one-month war, and a three-month extension would severely damage the economy, but he did not elaborate on the details of potential countermeasures. ⑶ Among the measures already taken, the Central Bank of Turkey has suspended its easing cycle at the policy interest rate level of 37%, and has supported the lira by raising the overnight interest rate by nearly 300 basis points to approximately 40%, and by selling and swapping hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange and gold reserves. ⑷ Şimşek acknowledged that the severe shock has led to a deterioration in the inflation outlook, challenging the target of bringing the inflation rate below 20% by the end of the year, and also widening the expected current account deficit. (5) He disclosed that the central bank's reserves have decreased by $48.7 billion since the outbreak of the war, but still have a reserve balance of approximately $162 billion, and expects the reserve size to return to pre-crisis levels once the war ends. (6) If the ceasefire breaks down, the risk scenario will encompass a global economic recession and stagflation, and even if the conflict ends, the disrupted global supply chains will take months to recover to pre-war levels. (7) Shymşek also revealed that after weeks of capital outflows, capital flows have shown a very strong positive reversal since Wednesday, indicating that Turkey's sound macroeconomic fundamentals are regaining international investor recognition.

18:08:58

The mortgage rate in the UK for March

Previous : 6.59% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.60%

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18:04:34

[EU Wheat Production Increase Fails to Reverse Export Decline; North African Bumper Harvest Squeezes Black Sea Grain Market Share] ⑴ Consulting firm Expana released its monthly report on Thursday, slightly raising its EU soft wheat production forecast for 2026/27 by 100,000 tons to 128.7 million tons, citing generally favorable crop growing conditions. ⑵ Despite the month-on-month increase, this forecast remains significantly lower than the actual output of 137.1 million tons in 2025/26, indicating that the tight supply situation for EU wheat in the medium term has not fundamentally reversed. ⑶ During the same period, Expana raised its EU maize production forecast for 2026/27 from 57.9 million tons last month to 58.3 million tons, while maintaining its barley production forecast at 52.3 million tons, a significant decline from 57.2 million tons in 2025/26. ⑷ Exports are facing headwinds. Given the better-than-expected harvest prospects in North Africa and the Middle East and the corresponding contraction in import demand, Expana simultaneously lowered its export outlook for EU soft wheat and barley for 2026/27. (5) Analysts point out that with the uncertain prospects of the Black Sea Grain Agreement and the disruption of shipping from the Hormuz pushing up ocean freight costs, the marginal weakening of the EU's grain export competitiveness may further reshape global grain trade flows. (6) The market will subsequently focus on North African actual yield data and the pace of Middle Eastern procurement. If the decline in import demand exceeds expectations, the pressure of accumulated EU wheat ending stocks may exert temporary downward pressure on the pan-European exchange's milling wheat futures contract.

18:04:28

[Iranian Conflict Scorches Indian Bull Market, JPMorgan Chase Drastically Cuts Year-End Target for Nifty 50] ⑴ JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday lowered its year-end target for the Indian Nifty 50 index by 10% to 27,000 points, citing macroeconomic headwinds from the Iranian conflict as reshaping valuation logic in South Asian markets. ⑵ The firm also lowered its 2027 fiscal year corporate earnings forecasts for India by 2% to 10% across various sectors, having previously reduced its real GDP growth forecast by 50 basis points due to the conflict. ⑶ JPMorgan Chase noted that India's fourth-quarter earnings season is unfolding against a complex backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, a sharp weakening rupee, and significant foreign capital outflows, posing multiple severe challenges to corporate performance. ⑷ Even with a ceasefire agreement, the firm expects supply disruptions and high costs to persist for several months, with sticky inflation continuing to exert downward pressure on corporate profit margins. (5) Data shows that since the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War at the end of February, India's Nifty 50 Index has fallen by about 6%, with market sentiment and liquidity under significant pressure. (6) Based on the assessment that cost inflation has become a reality and demand risks are accumulating, JPMorgan Chase has downgraded its rating on the consumer staples sector to neutral, while explicitly stating that its portfolio allocation will be significantly tilted towards high-growth domestic cyclical industries. (7) Institutional analysts believe that as an economy highly dependent on energy imports, Indian asset prices are far more sensitive to the Hormuz stalemate and oil price fluctuations than other emerging markets. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor whether the rupee exchange rate can stabilize to prevent a negative feedback loop of foreign capital outflows.

18:00:49

[Sanctions as a Bargaining Tool: Exemption Extensions May Lead to a Restructuring of Crude Oil Supply Expectations] ⑴ According to a report by the US financial media Semafor, citing former Treasury and State Department officials, the Trump administration is expected to extend sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil this week. The current waiver window was originally scheduled to expire on April 11. ⑵ The aforementioned former sanctions official believes that extending the Russian oil waiver will pave the way for the Iranian oil waiver, which expires on April 19. This move signifies a functional shift in sanctions during Trump's second term, transforming them from a primary measure for exerting economic pressure into a flexible tool for gaining bargaining power amidst market volatility. ⑶ US Treasury Secretary Bessant previously explained that approving the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already en route was intended to subtly buffer the economic impact of the Iran war and is expected to effectively increase global supply, thereby lowering oil prices. ⑷ With restricted passage in the Strait of Hormuz and over 230 oil tankers stranded, causing supply-side bottlenecks, if the US extends sanctions waivers for the two major oil-producing countries, Russia and Iran, the global marginal supply of crude oil is expected to see a phased recovery. (5) Market attention will focus on the actual tanker capacity released after the exemption extension. If the increase in supply is sufficient to offset the geopolitical premium, the short-term bullish sentiment for crude oil may experience a significant cooling and a restructuring of expectations.

18:00:15

[Earnings Expectations Remain High at 16%, Institutions Warn of Correction Storm for US Stocks in Q1 Earnings Season] ⑴ Helen Jewell, Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock, said on Wednesday that current market forecasts for US stock earnings growth this year remain as high as 15% to 18%. Given the emerging inflationary transmission effects of the Middle East conflict, this expectation has considerable room for downward revision. ⑵ She specifically pointed out that the assessment of stable earnings in the consumer sector is untenable, especially given the lack of significant easing in the interest rate environment and the increasing price pressures from the Middle East situation. Consumer resilience will face a severe test. ⑶ Data has already released early warning signals. The Citi US Earnings Momentum Index turned negative last Friday, and the number of analysts lowering earnings forecasts exceeded the number raising them by a significant margin in nearly a year. ⑷ Compiled data shows that the market consensus for S&P 500 earnings per share growth this year is 16%, which, if realized, would be the strongest annual performance since 2021. However, under the dual pressure of high uncertainty and soaring price risks, this forecast appears increasingly unrealistic. (5) With the Q1 earnings season officially starting next week, Jewell believes that the growth potential of the energy and materials sectors may be offset by the downside risks to earnings in cyclical industries such as aviation, and overall earnings performance is likely to be lackluster. (6) Institutions warn that, given the ongoing market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, if companies' actual earnings guidance falls short of previously inflated expectations, equity asset valuations will face dual pressure from both earnings and confidence corrections.

18:00:05

Germany's IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for April

Previous : 44.73 Forecast : -

Published Value 41.80

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18:00:04

South Africa's IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for April

Previous : 47.51 Forecast : -

Published Value 48.49

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18:00:04

Italy's IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for April

Previous : 47.53 Forecast : -

Published Value 43.12

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18:00:04

The IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for the UK in April

Previous : 46.03 Forecast : -

Published Value 43.34

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18:00:03

The IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for France in April

Previous : 42.03 Forecast : -

Published Value 38.08

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18:00:02

The IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for Spain in April

Previous : 51.21 Forecast : -

Published Value 47.16

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17:47:54

[The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Escalates, 230 Oil Tankers Stranded, Sentimental Globally] ⑴ Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC in the UAE, stated in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz is not currently open, and passage is subject to restrictions, conditions, and controls. ⑵ He emphasized that the strait is a natural waterway governed by international law, and the right to transit should be guaranteed, demanding unconditional and unconditional opening of the strait. ⑶ Jaber warned that the longer the restrictions continue, the greater the impact on oil prices and supply chains, and restoring full and unimpeded navigation is considered key to market stability. ⑷ He further pointed out that energy security and global economic stability depend on the unconditional opening of the strait, and any form of weaponization of this crucial waterway cannot be tolerated, otherwise it will set a dangerous precedent for the world. ⑸ It is estimated that approximately 230 ships fully loaded with crude oil are currently stranded, with 80% of their cargo destined for Asia, covering an area inhabited by half of the world's population, making the situation particularly urgent for Asia. (6) Analysts believe that the Hormuz dilemma, coupled with recent demand concerns triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, has placed the crude oil market under dual pressure from supply-side constraints and macroeconomic risk aversion. (7) The market is closely watching Iran's response and the movements of major naval forces. Every day the Strait of Hormuz's navigation status is delayed will exponentially amplify supply delays, market tightening, and upward price pressure.

17:27:57

[First Round of US-Iran Talks to be Held in Islamabad; Trump Warns of Resumption of Military Action if Negotiations Fail] ⑴ The United States and Iran will hold their first round of talks in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the morning of the 11th local time. Trump has dispatched a delegation led by US Vice President Vance to the talks to push for a long-term agreement. Trump and his team believe that Iran's new proposal can serve as a viable basis for negotiations and is "consistent" with the US's 15-point proposal. ⑵ Trump posted on the 8th that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel, along with additional ammunition, weapons, and any other appropriate and necessary supplies, will remain stationed in and around Iran until the agreement is fully observed. ⑶ Trump stated on the 8th that if negotiations with Iran fail, the US can easily resume military action against Iran. Trump stated that Hezbollah and Lebanon "will also be resolved," saying that the ceasefire "does not include" Lebanon and Hezbollah. ⑷ Trump stated that Iran will not enrich uranium and claimed that the US will cooperate with Iran to mine nuclear fallout. In addition, Trump stated that the US may form a joint project with Iran to protect the Strait of Hormuz. (5) According to CCTV News, Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that any country that provides military weapons to Iran will have "any and all goods" sold to the United States subject to an "immediate 50% tariff," and that the measure would "take effect immediately" without any exclusions or exemptions. (6) Trump is considering punishing some NATO countries that did not support a US military action against Iran and withdrawing troops from some NATO countries. Market sources say the Trump administration may cut funding for the Iran war to between $80 billion and $100 billion. (7) White House Press Secretary Levitt said Trump will travel to Nevada and Arizona next week. Under the revised Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, Trump has issued a proclamation adjusting the automatic spending cuts for fiscal year 2027. (8) US oil industry executives are pressuring the Trump administration to reject any agreement that would allow Iran to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.

17:00:08

Russia's overall comprehensive risk score for the second quarter

Previous : 1.77 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.61

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