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2026-09-21 Monday

2026-09-22

21:46:59

[Record-High Oil Prices in Nigeria Reinstate Cost of Living Before Election] ⑴ Nigerian gasoline prices have risen to a record high, with tensions in the Middle East pushing up global oil prices and creating new cost of living pressures for President Tinub's government less than six months before the election. ⑵ Despite the Dangote refinery, Africa's largest, operating at full capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, oil prices have surged, highlighting the limitations of domestic refining in protecting consumers from shocks in the international oil market. ⑶ This month, gasoline prices in Lagos and Abuja rose to approximately 1,400 naira per liter, up from around 1,200 naira a month ago. Some gas stations in northern Nigeria are charging as much as 1,500 naira, and diesel prices are even higher, exceeding 2,000 naira per liter. ⑷ Truck drivers in Abuja say that fuel costs are eroding their income, leaving them with little after buying fuel and struggling to support their families. (5) Prior to this price increase, the Dangote refinery raised its wholesale loading price to 1,350 Naira per liter, reflecting rising crude oil costs and the continued impact of global market volatility on fuel prices. Nigeria is a member of OPEC and Africa's largest oil producer. (6) With the 2027 general election scheduled for January 16, opposition politicians have made fuel prices a key issue in evaluating the government's economic record. (7) The latest price increase has reignited the debate over the elimination of gasoline subsidies in Tinub. This reform has been praised by investors, but critics accuse it of exacerbating the cost of living crisis and eroding household purchasing power. The president has stated that subsidies will not be reinstated. (8) The CEO of a fintech company stated that fuel pricing often serves as a proxy for the broader cost of living debate, and continued price increases raise the political premium for demonstrating the offsetting benefits of reforms. (9) Amid high oil prices, billionaire Dangote has begun selling shares to the public to raise funds for his refinery expansion. Despite the initial public offering attracting thousands of people seeking to hold shares, Nigerians are still paying more at the pump. (10) The president of the Nigerian Labor Congress stated that these new costs continue to create and deepen poverty, calling for additional wage support and a greater supply of Naira-priced crude oil to refineries to help curb further price increases. (11) Analysts say that fuel prices will put pressure on inflation, with the August inflation rate slightly decreasing to 15.39% from 15.43% in July. Food inflation has eased slightly but remains at a relatively high level of 19.57%. (12) Overall, the combination of high oil prices and the election cycle has increased the political cost of subsidy reform. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of global oil price trends, refinery capacity expansion, and wage support policies on inflation and people's livelihoods.

21:45:45

[ICE Commodity Futures Positions Close, Raw Sugar and Cocoa See Significant Decreases] ⑴ ICE Commodity Futures Positions data for the previous trading day shows that total cocoa open interest was approximately 182,000 contracts, a decrease of approximately 1,150 contracts from the previous day. The December contract saw a decrease of over 1,000 contracts, while most longer-term contracts saw slight increases. ⑵ Total cotton open interest was approximately 382,000 contracts, an increase of approximately 420 contracts. The December contract increased by approximately 300 contracts, the March contract decreased by approximately 1,570 contracts, and the May contract increased by approximately 840 contracts, indicating relatively mild overall changes. ⑶ Total coffee open interest was approximately 152,000 contracts, an increase of approximately 740 contracts. The May contract increased by approximately 1,370 contracts, while the December contract decreased by approximately 250 contracts, indicating some funds shifting to longer-term contracts. ⑷ Total frozen orange juice open interest was approximately 9,790 contracts, an increase of approximately 100 contracts. The main changes were concentrated in the October and January contracts, and the overall size remained relatively small. (5) On the 11th, total open interest in raw sugar was approximately 1.165 million lots, a decrease of about 11,900 lots, representing the largest decrease among all commodities. The October contract saw a decrease of over 10,000 lots, the March contract a decrease of about 2,160 lots, while most longer-term contracts saw slight increases. (6) On the 16th, total open interest in domestic sugar was approximately 5,280 lots, essentially unchanged, with changes in all contracts within single digits. (7) Overall, open interest in agricultural products showed divergence. Raw sugar and cocoa experienced significant decreases, while cotton and coffee saw slight increases. The impact of changes in fund flows on price fluctuations in these commodities needs to be monitored.

21:42:03

[German Bond 5-Year/30-Year Yields Enter Support Zone, Yield Flattening May Be Nearing Completion] ⑴ After rapid flattening in recent weeks, the 5-year/30-year German bond yield curve may be entering a support zone. This flattening trend has even continued in US Treasuries due to the recent oil price sell-off. ⑵ The curve has flattened by nearly 30 basis points since the end of August, currently trading at 51.2 basis points, the flattest level since February 2025. Approximately 10 basis points of this flattening occurred as Brent crude oil fell 8% from its multi-week high on September 11th, with the previous bear market flattening turning into a bull market flattening following the decline in oil prices. ⑶ The initial sharp bear market flattening triggered by the outbreak of the conflict between the US and Iran caused front-end yields to be repriced higher due to inflation concerns, completely erasing market expectations for the European Central Bank to ease policy to address economic weakness in early 2026. The 5-year German bond yield was caught in the inflation repricing, compressing the spread between the middle and long ends of the curve. (4) As front-end policy rates remain effectively anchored by the hawkish ECB policy and rhetoric, the recent decline in oil prices is being expressed in the form of long-term trades, taking advantage of multi-decade high long-term yields. With the risk of more structurally rising inflation fading, the German bond curve is flattening in a bull market. (5) If oil prices continue to fall in the coming months, it could be catalyzed by diplomatic breakthroughs or substantial improvements in supply dynamics, potentially triggering further steepening of the bull market as policy expectations adjust. (6) This shift from flattening to steepening could occur within the aforementioned support zone in the coming months, provided the ECB's stance becomes less hawkish and ultimately more dovish. (7) The potential economic downturn in core Eurozone countries remains a risk; the group's 2026 growth forecast has been lowered. (8) Overall, the flattening of the German bond curve is approaching historical extremes. Falling oil prices and growth concerns are reshaping policy expectations. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in ECB rhetoric and whether oil prices can continue to decline to determine if the curve has reached an inflection point.

21:41:51

[Gabon's 2027 Budget Proposes $2 Billion in International Financing, Betting on Increased Oil Production] ⑴ The Gabonese government plans to raise approximately CFA francs (about $2.01 billion) from international markets in 2027. The draft budget assumes accelerated economic growth and a rebound in oil production, while debt repayment and principal payments increase significantly. ⑵ The fiscal bill has been approved by the cabinet and is awaiting parliamentary approval. Total national resources and expenditures are set at CFA francs of 6.223 trillion, an increase of approximately CFA francs compared to the revised 2026 budget, according to a statement released by the Ministry of Economy and Finance over the weekend. ⑶ The 2027 financing plan also includes raising CFA francs of 600 billion from domestic or regional markets, CFA francs of bank loans, CFA francs of budgetary support, and CFA francs of project financing. ⑷ Economic growth is projected at 4.5% in 2027, higher than the 4.0% in 2026. (5) Oil production is projected to increase by 4.1% to 11.3 million tons, compared to 10.8 million tons in 2026. (6) The budget assumes an average price of US$70 per barrel for Gabonese crude oil in 2027, lower than US$80 in 2026. (7) Manganese production is projected to increase by 8.6% to 10.35 million tons, assuming a price increase of 45% to US$241.9 per ton. (8) Iron ore production is expected to start in 2027, with a projected output of 1.5 million tons. (9) Debt repayment costs are projected at CFA 667.3 billion in 2027, higher than the CFA 487.6 billion in the revised budget for 2026. (10) The budget for debt principal repayment in 2027 is CFA 1.88 trillion, and the government also plans to repay CFA 142.9 billion in outstanding debt. 11. Overall, the budget bets on increased oil production and mining expansion to support growth, but debt repayments and principal payments are rising significantly. Financing conditions and commodity price performance will be key variables.

21:33:36

[Palm Oil Continues to Fall, Weak Crude Oil and Stronger Ringgit Pressure] ⑴ Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower for the second consecutive trading day on Monday, pressured by a stronger ringgit, weaker crude oil prices, and sluggish exports. ⑵ The benchmark December delivery contract closed down 41 ringgit, or about 0.8%, at 4,857 ringgit per tonne on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. ⑶ A trader in Kuala Lumpur said the market was pressured by falling oil prices and a stronger ringgit, with a decline in open interest on Friday also reflecting low market participation. ⑷ Oil prices fell to an 11-day low as investors held onto hopes for diplomatic progress in the Iran war and focused on signs of a partial recovery in Saudi Arabian exports. ⑸ Weak crude oil prices reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. ⑹ Freight surveyors estimated that Malaysian palm oil product exports from September 1 to 20 fell by 12.8% to 24.7% compared to the same period last month. (7) In Dalian, the most active soybean oil contract fell by about 0.1%, and the palm oil contract fell by about 0.9%; soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by about 0.5%. (8) Palm oil follows the price trends of competing edible oils as it competes for market share in the global vegetable oil market. (9) The ringgit appreciated by about 0.02% against the US dollar, making the commodity slightly more expensive for buyers holding foreign currency. (10) Overall, the weakness in crude oil and competing edible oils, coupled with poor export data, put short-term pressure on palm oil. Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices and whether Malaysian exports can improve before the end of the month.

21:04:05

[Foreign Exchange Options Market Remains Volatile, with Yen Intervention Risks Emerging] ⑴ Following last week's Fed decision, the foreign exchange options market remained in a wait-and-see mode. Implied volatility for most G20 currencies hovered at long-term lows, with low actual volatility and a lack of new directional catalysts continuing to suppress option premiums. ⑵ The euro against the dollar and the pound are typical examples of this stagnation. The euro against the dollar's implied volatility was already near long-term lows across all maturities before the Fed decision and remained under pressure afterward, with the benchmark 1-month rate slightly higher than the post-pandemic lows. ⑶ Risk reversal indicators show that the premium spread between down and up options rose slightly from 0.1 to 0.2 after the Fed decision, compared to 0.45 in early September and 0.9 at the end of July, highlighting the market's lack of confidence in further euro/dollar depreciation. ⑷ The spot rate may be anchored this week by a large number of 1.1500 strike price options expiring, with approximately €8 billion daily distributed across various maturities. Related hedging flows will help keep the currency pair within a range; the path of least resistance still favors sideways movement rather than a sharp decline. (5) The pound showed a more pronounced similar trend, with implied volatility for the euro against the pound at its lowest level since the euro's inception in 1999, and the benchmark 1-month volatility at only 2.8. The 1-month volatility for the pound against the dollar continued to test the 12-year low of 4.75 reached in mid-August. (6) Implied volatility for the dollar against the yen collapsed after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25% last Friday. The divided vote and accompanying rhetoric failed to achieve the hawkish tone needed to build confidence in a sustained yen recovery. One-week volatility fell by more than 2.0 to just over 8, and the 1-month volatility fell by nearly 1.0 to 8.0. (7) The subsequent rise in the dollar against the yen triggered an official exchange rate check, timely alerting the market to the risk of intervention. This should have helped limit further gains in the spot exchange rate. Implied volatility recovered some ground on Monday but has since subsided again, as verbal intervention dampened momentum. (8) The overall message remains unchanged: persistently low realized volatility and familiar trading ranges continue to suppress implied volatility. The main risks to this calm are still stronger oil prices and the USD/JPY pair approaching 160.00 again, which would reignite the debate over intervention.

20:59:57

[Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals Slow Down, Regulators Optimistic About Market Outlook] ⑴ The Ivorian cocoa regulator stated that cocoa shipments from the country are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks as the new marketing and traceability system gradually becomes operational. ⑵ As the world's largest cocoa producer, Ivory Coast exports approximately 70% of its production to Europe. Exporters had previously warned that problems with the new system could disrupt supplies in October and November. ⑶ Since September 1st, all cocoa purchases must use electronic producer cards. The new regulations also require cooperatives and authorized buyers to use bills of lading that prove cocoa beans were purchased according to the traceability system procedures. ⑷ Ivory Coast accounts for approximately 40% of global production; a significant or sustained disruption to its exports could drive volatility in global cocoa prices. ⑸ The head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council stated that the system is still in its early stages but is functioning well. Once electronic payment terminals and other equipment are distributed, transaction volumes under the traceability system are expected to increase. (6) Exporters reported zero port arrivals at the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year from September 1st to 7th, reaching approximately 4,500 tons by September 13th. (7) The official stated that this is a slow process, but they will be prepared to handle a large volume of goods in October. (8) Overall, the new traceability system has temporarily slowed down procurement and export activity, but regulators are optimistic about the expected increase in volume next month. The actual impact of the rollout of the electronic card system and compliance with EU deforestation regulations on trade flows needs to be monitored.

20:58:32

[Russian Wheat Export Prices Decline, September Shipment Forecasts Revised Upward] ⑴ Last week, Russian wheat export prices fell in tandem with global market trends. Data from one institution shows that the FOB price of wheat with a protein content of 12.5% shipped from two ports in northwestern Russia for November delivery dropped to around $268 per ton, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week. ⑵ Due to the continued closure of ports in southern Russia, most cargoes were diverted to the aforementioned two terminals. Shipments from the Sea of Azov-Black Sea Basin have been stalled since mid-August due to attacks on ships and damage to docks. ⑶ The head of consulting firm SovEcon stated that the market is still ignoring the supply shock from the Black Sea, but this situation cannot continue indefinitely. ⑷ Shipment forecasts are diverging: IKAR estimates that Russian wheat exports in September have exceeded 2 million tons, SovEcon has raised its September forecast from 1.8 million tons to 2.1 million tons, and Rusagrotrans has increased its forecast from over 1.7 million tons to 2.2 million tons, driven by increased exports to multiple destinations, with approximately 1.1 million tons exported in the first half of the month. (5) However, SovEcon points out that Russian wheat exports in the first three months of the 2026/27 season (starting July 1) are estimated at 5.4 million tons, a 53% decrease year-on-year and 58% lower than the five-year average of 12.9 million tons, potentially marking the lowest quarterly level since the 2010/11 season. (6) Data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture shows that as of September 18, grain harvest reached 120 million tons, including over 90 million tons of wheat, with yields higher than the previous year; the winter crop planting area exceeded 19 million hectares, with nearly 6 million hectares already completed. (7) Regarding other varieties, the domestic price of grade 3 wheat in the European part of Russia was 8,300 rubles per ton, a decrease of 125 rubles week-on-week; sunflower seeds were 20,300 rubles, a decrease of 200 rubles; sunflower oil was 85,675 rubles, a decrease of 9,325 rubles; soybeans were 24,600 rubles, unchanged; and white sugar in southern Russia was $526.56 per ton, a decrease of $6.93. (8) Overall, prices are declining while export pace is improving, but cumulative quarterly exports remain at multi-year lows. Going forward, attention should be paid to the recovery progress of southern ports and the continued constraints on shipments due to Black Sea logistics risks.

20:39:09

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to Optimize Radio Spectrum Resource Allocation] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) will optimize the allocation of radio spectrum resources, fully leveraging their role in guiding radio technology innovation and application, supporting the development of the radio industry, and consolidating the foundation for industrial development. At the 2026 China Radio Conference, which opened on the 21st in Xiong'an New Area, Hebei Province, an official from the MIIT stated that it is necessary to ensure the scientific planning, precise supply, rational development, and efficient utilization of spectrum resources, allowing intangible spectrum resources to unleash enormous tangible energy and inject surging momentum into accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The official added that the next steps include strengthening innovation platforms to promote the integrated development of radio technology innovation and industrial innovation; improving radio governance efficiency by continuously improving the legal, regulatory, and institutional standards system for radio management; strengthening radio monitoring and interference investigation and punishment; and severely cracking down on illegal frequency use and station establishment. Furthermore, it is crucial to deepen open cooperation and successfully host events such as the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). (Xinhua)

20:33:41

[Nearly 40% of Indian Coal-Fired Power Plants Face Critical Fuel Inventories; Rising Demand Pressures Supply] ⑴ Nearly 40% of India's coal-fired power plants have fuel inventories at critically low levels, primarily driven by El Niño-related weather conditions boosting electricity demand. ⑵ Government data shows that as of September 19, the number of power plants with inventories below critical levels increased to 74, up from approximately 60 a week earlier. ⑶ These power plants either have less than 25% of their required inventory or only enough to sustain operations for less than three days. ⑷ Peak electricity demand in India remained at approximately 230-250 gigawatts over the past week, compared to a record high of approximately 271 gigawatts in May. ⑸ Analysts believe that the decline in coal inventories is more of a short-term supply chain challenge than a structural shortage, with logistical disruptions affecting coal transportation. ⑹ The coal and railway sectors have announced measures to expedite coal delivery to power plants. ⑺ Although renewable energy generation grew by approximately 21% from April to August, coal-fired power generation remains crucial for meeting 24/7 electricity demand. (8) Domestic supply pressures prompted power producers to increase imports, with Indian utility coal imports rising to a 15-month high in August. (9) The government continues to focus on improving coal supply and transportation; while renewable energy capacity is expanding, coal remains the mainstay of the power system during periods of high demand.

20:30:00

Change in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August

Previous : -0.08 Forecast : -0.06

Published Value -0.04

Previous

20:05:59

India's infrastructure output year-on-year growth rate in August

Previous : 5.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 4.80

Previous

20:00:28

Canada's National Economic Confidence Index for the Week Ending September 17

Previous : 50.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.90

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