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2026-02-20 Friday

2026-02-22

19:05:01

Global primary aluminum production in January by IAI

Previous : 629.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 631.70

Previous

19:00:58

[US Equity Funds See Largest Inflow in Five Weeks as Cooling Inflation Fuels Rate Cut Expectations] ⑴ In the week ending February 18, US equity funds recorded a net inflow of $11.77 billion, the largest weekly inflow since January 14. The core catalyst for this large-scale capital inflow was the cooling of consumer price inflation data, which boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and alleviated concerns about the previous decline in the technology sector. ⑵ Fund flows showed a clear style preference. Value funds were favored for the second consecutive week, attracting a net inflow of $2.65 billion. Growth funds, on the other hand, experienced a net outflow of $2.28 billion, indicating that investors are withdrawing from previously high-performing growth stocks and shifting towards more reasonably valued sectors. ⑶ Sector funds continued their upward trend, with a net inflow of $1.82 billion, marking the second consecutive week of net purchases. The industrial and technology sectors attracted $1.3 billion and $1.19 billion respectively, becoming the focus of capital investment. This indicates that while investors are optimistic about the overall market, they are also making structural adjustments. (4) UBS Global Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer noted that while the overall outlook for US stocks remains attractive, investors should consider diversifying their concentrated technology stock holdings; selectivity is key. This view echoes the trend of funds flowing out of growth funds and into industrial and technology sub-sectors. (5) The bond market also showed strong demand. US bond funds saw net inflows of $10.27 billion this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of net purchases. Short-to-medium term investment-grade funds, general domestic taxable fixed-income funds, and short-to-medium term government bond funds attracted $3.61 billion, $2.56 billion, and $2.26 billion, respectively. (6) Meanwhile, money market funds saw net inflows of $12.79 billion, the third weekly net inflow in four weeks. This data suggests that despite a recovery in risk appetite, some funds are still maintaining cash positions to cope with subsequent market volatility and policy uncertainty.

18:55:38

[Tullow Oil Launches Comprehensive Capital Restructuring, Simultaneously Advancing West African Expansion and Debt Extension] ⑴ Tullow Oil announced a broad capital restructuring plan on Friday, along with several deals to deepen its West African operations. The heavily indebted independent oil producer is seeking stable operations and long-term growth. ⑵ The company has reached a refinancing agreement with Glencore and major holders of its May 2026 senior secured notes, extending the debt maturity by more than two years to November 2028. The notes total $1.3 billion, with approximately two-thirds of the holders participating in the restructuring. ⑶ Tullow Oil has long faced the dual pressures of declining production and delayed government payments, resulting in persistently tight cash flow. Amid rising debt, the company has been forced to cut costs to maintain operations. This debt extension will provide it with breathing room. ⑷ The company also signed two significant asset transactions. One is the acquisition of a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit serving Ghana's TEN oil field for $205 million. The CEO stated that this move will reduce fixed costs and improve long-term cash flow. Second, an agreement was reached with the Ghanaian government to extend the terms of the West Point Three and Deepwater Tano oil agreements. (5) Clear expectations for financial improvement. After completing the refinancing, the company expects to have over $200 million in free cash flow and undrawn credit lines as a liquidity buffer. This provides a financial runway for executing its business plan and creating additional value for stakeholders. (6) Production guidance indicates a slight short-term decline. The company expects average daily production in 2026 to be between 34,000 and 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent, lower than the 40,400 barrels in 2025. This guidance reflects the natural decline in the asset base and the phased nature of the investment cycle. (7) Market reactions are mixed. After rising by about 23% in the previous trading day, the company's stock price showed mixed performance in early trading on Friday. With a full-year decline of over 70% in 2025, it remains to be seen whether the capital restructuring can reverse the long-term downturn.

17:37:05

[Euro and Eurozone Bond Yields Continue to Fall, Strong PMI Fails to Reverse Market Sentiment] ⑴ The Eurozone's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in February, higher than the expected 51.5, marking the 14th consecutive month of expansion. PMI data from both France and Germany exceeded expectations, indicating that the recovery momentum of Europe's two largest economies is building. ⑵ However, the strong data failed to reverse the weakness of the euro and Eurozone bond yields. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1760, essentially unchanged from before the data release. The market's muted reaction to the positive news reflects that exchange rates are currently more driven by external factors. ⑶ European government bond yields continued to fall, stabilizing only after a slight narrowing of the decline. The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell 0.3 basis points to 2.741%, while the yield on French bonds of the same maturity fell 0.6 basis points to 3.311%. The bond market's reaction to the better-than-expected PMI was also limited. ⑷ The market's indifference to the data may stem from a cautious assessment of inflation and policy prospects. Despite positive growth data, price signals remained muted, and corporate price increases were limited, failing to alter market expectations that the European Central Bank would maintain interest rates unchanged this year. (5) The synchronized weakening of the euro and European bonds reflects that the market is still digesting external variables. The dollar's performance, energy prices, and changes in global risk appetite may have a greater impact on the pricing of European assets than short-term fluctuations in regional economic data.

17:31:34

[UK PMI Hits New High for the Year, Employment Market Concerns Fuel Interest Rate Cut Expectations] ⑴ UK business activity continued its rebound from the beginning of the year, with the preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 53.9 in February, the highest level since April 2024, exceeding the expected 53.3. This data indicates a strong start to 2026 for the UK economy. ⑵ Manufacturing has become a highlight of this recovery. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0, a new high in 18 months, exceeding the expected 51.5. Export orders performed particularly well, with new business growth from overseas reaching its fastest pace in four and a half years, indicating a recovery in external demand. ⑶ The services PMI slightly decreased to 53.9, still within a robust expansion range. However, the employment situation within the services sector is worrying, with significant layoffs or hiring freezes. Some businesses attribute this to the Labour government's fiscal policy of increasing employers' social security contributions, which is affecting employment decisions in the services sector. ⑷ The weakness in the employment market contrasts with the growth. S&P Global's chief business economist points out that despite encouraging growth data, continued weakness in the labor market will fuel calls for further interest rate cuts. Investors widely expect the Bank of England to resume rate cuts in March to address the combination of cooling employment and declining inflation. (5) Price signals are moderate and manageable. Business sales prices rose at their fastest pace since April last year, but cost burden growth slowed to its lowest level in three months. This combination provides the central bank with more policy room, and the trade-off between growth and inflation has not yet hindered rate cuts. (6) Overall, the UK economy is operating at a quarterly growth rate of about 0.3%, a significant improvement from 0.1% at the end of last year. Some businesses are choosing to replace personnel expansion with technology investment; this structural adjustment may have a lasting impact on the pace of the labor market recovery.

17:30:03

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for February

Previous : 51.60 Forecast : 51.50

Published Value 52

Previous

17:30:02

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Services PMI for February

Previous : 54.30 Forecast : 53.50

Published Value 53.90

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17:30:01

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Composite PMI for February

Previous : 53.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 53.90

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17:27:52

[Eurozone PMI Rebounds More Than Expected, Recovery Momentum Continues to Gather] ⑴ Eurozone private sector activity expanded faster than expected in February, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 51.9, up from 51.3 in January and exceeding economists' expectations of 51.5. This data shows that despite ongoing headwinds, the Eurozone's recovery momentum is strengthening. ⑵ Improvement in manufacturing was the main driver of overall data. The manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in February for the first time since mid-2022, ending a three-and-a-half-year contraction cycle. The output index climbed to a six-month high, and new orders also returned to growth, indicating that the recovery in demand is translating into substantial improvements in production. ⑶ The service sector performed steadily. The services PMI rose slightly, although slightly below market expectations, but has remained in expansion territory for several consecutive months. As a pillar of the Eurozone economy, the stable operation of the service sector provides a solid foundation for the overall recovery. ⑷ Price signals are moderate and manageable. Although overall pricing pressures have increased slightly, companies have remained restrained in raising prices. This combination reinforces market expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged this year, and the balance between inflation and growth has not yet been broken. (5) Overall, the February PMI data released positive signals. If the turning point in manufacturing is confirmed, it will form a dual-engine drive with the robust expansion of the service sector, providing strong support for the Eurozone's economic performance in the first quarter. The market will focus on whether subsequent data can continue this improving trend.

17:14:10

[Aston Martin Issues Full-Year Profit Warning, Tariffs and Slowing Demand Become Double Headwinds] ⑴ British luxury sports car manufacturer Aston Martin issued a profit warning, expecting an adjusted EBIT loss of between £139 million and £184 million for 2025, slightly below the lower end of analysts' forecasts. This earnings forecast reflects the complex challenges facing the high-end consumer market. ⑵ The company had initially expected to achieve profitability and positive cash flow for the full year, but was forced to withdraw its guidance during the year. The business environment was described as extremely challenging, with tariffs being one of the core dragging factors. ⑶ US trade policies pose direct financial pressure. The US government imposed a 10% tariff on the first 100,000 British-made cars, with the rate surging to 27.5% for any excess. As a key export market, the tariff costs in the US market eroded Aston Martin's profit margins. ⑷ Total wholesale sales in 2025 are expected to fall to 5,448 units, down from 6,030 units in the previous year. Although retail performance was slightly better, reduced deliveries of high-profit limited-edition models put pressure on gross margins. The full-year gross margin is expected to be around 29.5%, lower than previously anticipated. (5) To boost liquidity, the company proposed selling part of the naming rights and related brand interests of the F1 team for £50 million, which will be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for approval. This asset monetization measure indicates that cash flow management remains a current priority, even with progress in product portfolio optimization and cost reduction. (6) Full-year cost reduction efforts resulted in a 16% decrease in adjusted operating expenses to £262 million in 2025, with capital expenditures projected at £341 million, below the lowered target range. (7) Looking ahead to 2026, the company expects the delivery of approximately 500 Valhalla supercars, the effectiveness of the transformation plan, and operational rigor to drive substantial improvement in performance. However, changes in the tariff environment and demand in key markets remain key variables determining the pace of recovery.

17:06:53

[Turkish Finance Minister Speaks Out Frequently: Inflation Remains a Top Priority, Japanese Investment Expected to Land in March] ⑴ The Turkish Finance Minister will visit Japan in March to meet with business groups and explore the possibility of direct investment in Turkey. The trip aims to expand sources of Asian capital and bring more external funding to the Turkish economy. ⑵ In an interview, the Finance Minister released clear financing expectations. He stated that the private sector will have access to more and lower-cost funding after 2026. This statement helps boost business confidence and lays the groundwork for future improvements in the financing environment. ⑶ Regarding external balance, the Finance Minister believes the current account deficit is largely under control and on a sustainable path. If this assessment is verified by data, it will alleviate market concerns about Turkey's external vulnerability and provide support for the stability of the local currency. ⑷ Inflation remains a core concern in policymaking. The Finance Minister emphasized that combating inflation is a top priority and pointed out that while the slowdown in the anti-inflation process can be discussed, there has been no substantial deterioration. This statement aims to reassure the market about recurring inflation while maintaining policy continuity. (5) Signs are emerging that the stickiness of service sector inflation is loosening. The Finance Minister has explicitly stated that the inertia of service sector inflation has begun to soften. As the most stubborn component of inflation, the cooling of service sector prices will open up new room for overall inflation to decline.

17:05:53

[When Will Central Banks' Gold Hoarding End? If Gold Prices Break $5790, Gold Will Become a Major Reserve Asset] ⑴ The global central bank gold-buying frenzy continues, but the market is beginning to question the limits of this trend. A financial magazine article points out that central banks currently hold approximately $13 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and 36,000 tons of official gold. At a gold price of $5500, the value of central bank gold holdings is approximately $6.37 trillion. ⑵ A key tipping point is approaching. Deutsche Bank research shows that when gold prices reach $5790, the value of central bank gold reserves will exceed their dollar reserves. This means that gold will officially become a major global reserve asset, rewriting the weighting structure of the international monetary system. ⑶ The dual interplay of interest rate environments provides a complex backdrop for gold prices. The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining stable interest rates, while the Trump administration is pushing for rate cuts. This policy divergence has made the global interest rate path and inflation outlook uncertain, strengthening gold's value as a hedging tool. (4) Central bank gold purchases have shifted from short-term hedging to long-term strategic adjustments. The narrative of de-dollarization and the demand for diversification of foreign exchange reserves have led to gold's role in reserve asset portfolios evolving from a peripheral supplement to a core weight. Even with gold prices near historical highs, some central banks continue to increase their holdings. (5) The $5,790 gold price level is not only a mathematical critical point, but could also trigger a chain reaction of asset revaluation. Once gold becomes a major reserve asset, its pricing logic will shift from commodity attributes to monetary attributes, and central banks' tolerance for gold price fluctuations and their willingness to intervene will be reshaped accordingly.

17:04:57

Greece's current account for December

Previous : -20.78 Forecast : -

Published Value -38.62

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17:03:34

[Silicon Valley Engineers Accused of Stealing Trade Secrets; Sensitive Technology Flows to Iran Draws Attention] ⑴ A U.S. federal grand jury has indicted three Silicon Valley engineers, accusing them of stealing trade secrets from tech companies like Google and transferring sensitive data to Iran. All three defendants are residents of San Jose and hold Iranian citizenship; one is a U.S. citizen, another is a lawful permanent resident, and the third is residing on a non-immigrant student visa. ⑵ The indictment reveals the defendants' special ties to Iran. One of the male defendants served in the Iranian military, a background that elevates the case beyond simple economic espionage, raising higher-level concerns about the flow of sensitive technology. ⑶ Prosecutors allege that the defendants used their positions in mobile computer processor development to obtain hundreds of confidential documents covering key areas such as processor security and cryptography. If these technologies flow into sanctioned countries, they could potentially impact the security landscape of the global technology supply chain. ⑷ This case reflects the real existence of technology spillover risks in the high-tech industry. As a global innovation hub, the protection of Silicon Valley's core technologies is not only a matter of corporate interests but also involves technological competition and security boundaries between nations. For tech companies, the importance of internal personnel risk management has once again been brought into the spotlight. (5) The three defendants were arrested on Thursday and appeared in federal district court. Further developments in the case will reveal more details about the flow of technology and the security vulnerabilities of the companies involved. This incident also provides a new cautionary tale for multinational talent management and technology confidentiality in other technology hubs.

17:02:51

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:49

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Copper

Previous : 925 Forecast : -

Published Value 9575

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17:02:42

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Tin

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 15

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17:02:36

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Lead

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:31

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Zinc

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value -425

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17:02:24

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Nickel

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:21

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:18

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Primary aluminum

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:07

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 20th - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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17:02:00

Preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the Eurozone in February

Previous : 51.90 Forecast : 51.90

Published Value 51.80

Previous

17:01:55

Preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in February

Previous : 49.40 Forecast : 50

Published Value 50.80

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17:01:48

Preliminary reading of the Eurozone's SPGI Composite PMI for February

Previous : 51.50 Forecast : 51.50

Published Value 51.90

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16:58:52

[Australian Inflation Data to Test Rate Hike Expectations, Japan's Policy Path Becoming Clearer] ⑴ Australia's first-quarter inflation data will be released this Wednesday, becoming a key indicator to verify market expectations for rate hikes. Investors have already bet on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising rates at least once more this year, given its strong economy and sticky inflation. An upward surprise in the data would further solidify expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike to 4.10% in May. ⑵ The RBA became the only G10 central bank besides Japan to tighten policy this month, continuing to combat inflationary pressures in a supply-tight economy. This contrasts Australia's interest rate path with other major economies and provides structural support for the Australian dollar. ⑶ Japan's inflation data is also worth watching, but its impact will be different. Tokyo's CPI will be released on Friday, and analysts believe this data is unlikely to substantially change the Bank of Japan's policy outlook. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's historic election victory cleared political obstacles for further tightening by the central bank. ⑷ The market has already priced in two rate hikes by the Bank of Japan before December. This means that after a prolonged period of negative interest rates, Japan's monetary policy normalization process is accelerating, and the divergence between Japan and other major central banks globally is gradually narrowing. (5) Although both Australia and Japan are in a tightening cycle, their driving logics differ. Australia is more constrained by the continued escalation of domestic supply-demand imbalances, while Japan's policymakers have gained more room to maneuver after the political landscape became clearer. The actual performance of inflation data in both countries will determine the market's recalibration of the subsequent pace of interest rate hikes.

16:57:50

[The Geopolitical Game Behind the US-India Energy Deal] ⑴ The US is using energy supply as a core bargaining chip in its trade negotiations with India. By directly linking India's reduced purchases of Russian crude oil to tariff preferences, Washington is attempting to establish a new balance between energy flows and trade interests. Venezuelan oil's access to the Indian market has been granted by the US, becoming one of the alternative options. ⑵ As the world's third-largest oil importer, India faces a dual struggle between external pressure and internal demand in diversifying its energy sources. On the one hand, becoming Russia's largest customer for seaborne crude oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict exposes it to compliance risks under Western sanctions; on the other hand, maintaining low import costs is crucial for its domestic economy. ⑶ The US's licensing of Venezuelan oil supplies is selective. Following the political changes in Venezuela, sales licenses were issued only to specific trading companies, rather than being fully opened. This targeted authorization allows the US to influence the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to some extent while avoiding direct involvement in energy supply negotiations with India. ⑷ The pace of the US-India interim trade agreement is linked to energy purchase commitments. The US envoy has clearly stated that India will purchase more oil from the US and may also purchase from Venezuela. This dual-track approach aims to systematically dilute Russia's share of India's energy imports, rather than simply seeking a substitute for a single supply source. (5) For India, accepting oil from the United States and Venezuela, which is licensed by the US, represents a compromise between trade preferences and diplomatic balance. Its refineries have already begun placing orders for Venezuelan crude oil while maintaining existing supply relationships with Russia. This multi-pronged procurement strategy allows it to maintain a certain degree of strategic maneuvering among major powers.

16:55:31

[South Korean Feed Buyers Secure 132,000 Tons of Corn] ⑴ The South Korean Feed Leaders Committee completed a corn purchase in an international tender, totaling approximately 132,000 tons, slightly below the previously sought upper limit of 138,000 tons. This purchase reflects the restocking intentions of major importing countries at current price levels. ⑵ The tender was conducted in two batches. The first batch of approximately 65,000 tons was won by trading company Pan Ocean, expected to arrive in South Korea on June 5th, at a price of US$245.97 per ton, plus a US$1.25 port unloading surcharge. The second batch of approximately 67,000 tons was won by Mitsui, expected to arrive on June 25th, at a price of US$244.99 per ton, plus a US$1.50 surcharge. ⑶ The shipping window varied significantly depending on the origin of the corn. The first shipment period is from April 17 to May 16 if it originates from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast; from March 28 to April 26 if it originates from the U.S. Gulf Coast; from March 23 to April 21 if it originates from South America; and from March 7 to May 6 if it originates from South Africa. (4) The shipment window for the second shipment is also broad. It is from May 2 to 30 for the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast, from April 12 to May 11 for the U.S. Gulf Coast, from April 7 to May 6 for South America, and from April 22 to May 21 for South Africa. Notably, if the second shipment originates from South Africa, the supply can be reduced to 55,000 tons, and the seller will have a five-day flexibility in delivery time. (5) The flexibility in the origin of this tender demonstrates the buyer's intention to seek the optimal combination within the global supply chain, and the transaction price level will provide a reference point for subsequent procurement in the Asian market.

16:46:56

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong, China for January

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

Previous

16:43:03

[Rich Dad Author Warns of Dollar Collapse; Silver to Become the Structural Metal of the AI Era] ⑴ Robert Kiyosaki, author of *Rich Dad Poor Dad*, issued a major warning, arguing that the US dollar may face its largest collapse in history, potentially plunging the global monetary system into a complex situation. In an interview, he reiterated his strong bullish stance on precious metals, pointing out that silver's rise stems not only from monetary instability but also from structural demand driven by technological prosperity. ⑵ Kiyosaki defines silver as the structural metal of the future. He mentions the rise of artificial intelligence, the widespread adoption of solar energy, and the expansion of related fields, believing that market demand for silver is endless. Against this backdrop, silver breaking through $100 is inevitable, and with continued industrial demand growth expected in 2026, it could even reach $200. ⑶ The simultaneous rise of gold and silver is interpreted as a warning signal for the US dollar. Kiyosaki cites historical patterns, pointing out that when precious metals rise together, it often signifies that the fiat currency system is nearing the end of its life cycle. He recalls his personal experience during the collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar, warning that excessive repatriation of overseas dollars could trigger hyperinflation. (4) Market sentiment is already reflected in fund flows. The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows that short positions in the US dollar have climbed to their highest level since 2012, with traders leaning towards a de-dollarization narrative. Although hard economic data has not yet fully validated this theme, fund allocation has already reflected this shift in expectations. (5) As a protective measure, Kiyosaki not only holds precious metals, but he also emphasizes using ounces rather than dollars as a measure of wealth and stores a large amount of precious metals outside the United States. This operation reflects a substantial hedge against the potential risks of the dollar system. (6) Kiyosaki's criticism extends to monetary policy and wealth distribution. He sees the Fed's expansion of the money supply as the root cause of increased income inequality, arguing that excessive money printing is particularly damaging to the middle class. While he hopes a dollar collapse will not occur, he is making comprehensive preparations for it.

16:41:55

[BMO Strongly Promises Bullish Logic for Gold, Sounds Caution for Silver] ⑴ BMO Capital Markets has clearly shifted its bullish stance on gold. Commodity analyst Helen Amos stated that the frequent geopolitical flashpoints since January have prompted institutions to significantly shift their risk assessment of gold prices from the baseline scenario to a bullish scenario. According to BMO's calculations, gold prices could approach $6,500 by the end of 2026 and further rise to $8,600 by the end of 2027. ⑵ Multiple macroeconomic variables are converging and resonating. Amos pointed out that emerging market momentum, the trend of deglobalization, and the theme of de-dollarization are systemically beneficial to precious metals. Meanwhile, strong and stable retail and investment demand allows gold prices to quickly form solid bottoms after each correction, which is an important basis for the bullish logic. ⑶ BMO's pricing model reveals the core drivers of gold prices. Central bank gold purchases, gold ETF inflows, the US dollar index, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are the main variables explaining gold's performance. If investment demand continues at its current strength in the coming years, coupled with continued inflows from central banks and ETFs, it's not difficult for gold prices to reach higher levels. (4) In contrast, the outlook for silver is unsettling for institutions. Amos frankly admits to feeling uncomfortable with the current state of silver, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Silver is essentially closer to an industrial metal, and the supply and demand in the spot market may be shifting from tight to loose. Global solar energy installation growth may have peaked, which is an important industrial consumption scenario for silver. (5) Speculative factors have exacerbated the volatility risk of silver. From December last year to January this year, retail investors excessively chased the market based on the narrative of currency devaluation, coupled with a large amount of speculative funds and options trading pushing up prices, resulting in exceptionally sharp short-term fluctuations in silver. As the market has fallen back, silver has returned to reality, but the previous sharp fluctuations have not helped solidify its market reputation as a safe-haven asset. (6) The divergence in BMO's strategies is worth noting. Gold has gained a clear upward bias, supported by rising geopolitical risks, the continuation of the de-dollarization narrative, and demand from central banks and investment. Silver, however, may find it more difficult to replicate gold's upward trend in the short term if the physical market eases. Institutions recommend remaining in the metals and mining sector, but caution is advised regarding silver.

16:41:43

[GDP and PCE Released Together: Resilience and Cracks Emerge in the US Economy] ⑴ The revised US Q4 GDP figure will be released Friday evening, with the market widely expecting growth to slow to a robust 3.0% from 4.4% in Q3. However, this belated data is compounded by the dual impacts of last year's 43-day government shutdown and the widening trade deficit to a five-month high in December. The Atlanta Fed has already lowered its forecast from 3.6% to 3.0%. ⑵ Beneath the overall growth, structural divergence is intensifying. Economists describe the current situation as a "K-shaped economy": high-income households benefit from the stock market boom and the AI investment frenzy, maintaining strong consumption power; while low-income households struggle with tariff-driven inflation and stagnant wage growth, creating a so-called "affordability crisis." ⑶ Consumer spending growth is expected to slow significantly from 3.5% in Q3. Real disposable income is nearing stagnation, forcing some households to use savings to maintain spending. This year's tax rebates have increased due to tax cuts, which is expected to provide some support for consumption, but a fundamental recovery in purchasing power still requires a decline in inflation. (4) Artificial intelligence investment has become a unique bright spot for economic growth. AI-related investments, including data centers, semiconductors, and software, contributed about one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, partially offsetting the drag from tariffs and reduced immigration. Strong capital goods imports also reflect the sustainability of this construction boom. (5) Residential investment remains mired in difficulties. It is expected to contract for the fourth consecutive quarter, with high borrowing costs continuing to suppress the willingness of builders and homebuyers. The contribution of trade and inventory to growth is trending towards neutral, making it difficult to provide additional momentum. (6) The December PCE inflation data, released concurrently with GDP, will be more policy-significant. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month and remain at a sticky level of 2.9% year-on-year. Federal Reserve officials are still waiting for inflation improvement to materialize in actual data, and since mid-2024, progress in core inflation has almost stalled, making the threshold for a policy shift still high. The combination of slowing growth and sticky inflation is pushing the uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rates to a new high.

16:39:58

[Inflation Data to be Released Soon, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Face Major Test] ⑴ At 21:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US will release the December Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP for the fourth quarter. These two key data points will jointly test whether the US economy is truly as resilient as the market expects. ⑵ The inflation outlook has become the focus of market speculation. The market generally expects a moderate rebound in core PCE. If the actual data confirms this judgment, it will further strengthen the narrative that inflation remains sticky, thereby weakening the urgency of a rate cut this year. ⑶ Growth data is equally crucial. If the final GDP figure for the fourth quarter confirms that the economy is maintaining robust expansion, coupled with a rebound in inflation, it will provide double support for the Fed's current stance of holding rates steady. Recent signals from policymakers have shown that the threshold for a policy shift remains high before confirming a clear return of inflation to the target. ⑷ The interest rate futures market will subsequently repric. If the data mix is hawkish, the expected timing of a rate cut this year will be further delayed, putting short-term pressure on non-interest-bearing assets and risk assets. Conversely, if the data is unexpectedly weak, it may reignite expectations of a rate cut. Market volatility is imminent, and investors should be wary of sharp fluctuations before and after the data release.

16:39:48

[Gold Prices Hold Above $5,000: Safe-Haven and Interest Rate Game Enters a New Phase] ⑴ International gold prices held steady at historically high levels. New York gold futures rose 0.7% to $5,030.70 in early trading on Friday, successfully holding the $5,000 mark. This milestone price level reflects the deep interplay between strong market demand for safe-haven assets and macroeconomic uncertainty. ⑵ Geopolitical risks are currently the core support for gold prices. The US military deployment in the Middle East and concerns about potential strikes against Iran continue to fuel safe-haven sentiment. Although the market has partially priced in this factor, as long as the risk of conflict persists, the safe-haven premium for gold will be difficult to diminish. ⑶ Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that gold prices experienced a sharp correction after hitting a record high in January, with speculative trading amplifying short-term volatility. However, the fundamental factors supporting the long-term trend of gold remain solid, including the continued existence of geopolitical risks and the strategic shift of funds from traditional assets. ⑷ Interest rate expectations remain a key variable determining the next direction of gold prices. The market is focused on Friday's release of US personal consumption expenditure data, a preferred inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, whose performance will directly impact expectations of interest rate paths. If the data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts, thus boosting gold; conversely, if the data remains lackluster, it could put pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Above $5,000, gold is seeking a new balance between the logic of safe-haven demand and interest rates.

16:32:59

[German PMI Breaks Through, Eurozone Engine Resumes Expansion After Three and a Half Years] ⑴ German private sector economic activity accelerated to a four-month high in February, signaling a clear economic turnaround. The preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 53.1, far exceeding market expectations of 52.3, and has remained in expansion territory for several consecutive months. The chief economist at Commerzbank stated that this confirms the signs of economic recovery seen in January. ⑵ The service sector continued its steady growth, becoming the main engine driving overall economic growth. The February services PMI rose to 53.4, a four-month high, significantly higher than the expected 52.3. This data indicates that the resilience of the service sector, a core pillar of Europe's largest economy, is translating into substantial growth momentum. ⑶ The breakthrough in manufacturing is even more significant. The February manufacturing PMI jumped from 49.1 to 50.7, returning to expansion territory for the first time since June 2022, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 49.5. This performance, crossing the 50-point mark, suggests that the three-and-a-half-year contraction cycle in manufacturing may be coming to an end, injecting key momentum into the overall economic recovery. (4) Leading indicators have already laid the groundwork for this rebound. German industrial orders unexpectedly recorded their largest increase in two years last December, foreshadowing a recovery in production. Combined with current PMI data, economists predict that unless there is a significant slump in March, first-quarter GDP will achieve substantial growth, but the data does not yet show this indication. (5) However, concerns remain regarding the job market. Although the overall pace of layoffs has slowed, factory employment remains in contraction, marking the second-lowest decline in nearly two and a half years. Businesses continue to weigh expansion expectations against cost pressures, and a full recovery still requires substantial improvement in the job market for confirmation.

16:31:56

The preliminary value of Germany's SPGI manufacturing PMI for February

Previous : 48.70 Forecast : 49.60

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 50.70

Previous

16:31:51

The preliminary value of Germany's SPGI Services PMI for February

Previous : 53.30 Forecast : 52.30

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 53.40

Previous

16:31:46

The preliminary value of Germany's SPGI Composite PMI for February

Previous : 52.50 Forecast : 52.30

欧元 金银
美元

Published Value 53.10

Previous

16:24:33

[French PMI Reveals the Truth Behind Stagnation, Unexpected Manufacturing Slowdown Raises Concerns] ⑴ The French private sector remains mired in growth difficulties. The preliminary HCOB composite purchasing managers' index rose slightly to 49.9 in February, higher than expected and the final reading in January, but has hovered around the 50-point threshold for several months. Economists at Commerzbank in Hamburg pointed out that since November of last year, the index has failed to achieve a substantial breakthrough, and growth momentum remains lacking. ⑵ A brief recovery in the service sector cannot mask the overall weakness. The services PMI rose to 49.6 in February, a two-month high and better than market expectations, but it has remained in contraction territory for the second consecutive month. This means that the service sector, which dominates the economy, has not yet escaped its slump, and the foundation for recovery is not solid. ⑶ The performance of the manufacturing sector, however, unexpectedly slowed down. The manufacturing PMI plummeted from 51.2 to 49.9 in February, falling below the 50-point threshold and far below the market expectation of 51.0. This contrast indicates that the industrial sector, which previously supported the French economy, is facing headwinds and has become the main factor dragging down overall performance. ⑷ The contraction in demand is accelerating its transmission to the job market. New business inflows contracted for the third consecutive month, with the largest decline since July of last year, as weak exports significantly dragged down orders. Employment stalled after several months of growth, with job cuts in manufacturing offsetting modest growth in the service sector, indicating that cautious business sentiment is translating into actual hiring decisions. (5) Price signals are complex. Service companies are employing discount strategies, while manufactured goods prices are rising at their fastest pace in a year and a half. Composite sales prices fell for the first time in three years, while input cost inflation slowed to a four-month low. This divergence reflects differences in pricing pressures and demand elasticity across industries, adding uncertainty to the future path of inflation.

16:17:32

The preliminary value of France's SPGI Composite PMI for February

Previous : 49.10 Forecast : 49.70

Published Value 49.90

Previous

16:17:21

The preliminary value of France's SPGI manufacturing PMI for February

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : 51.30

Published Value 49.90

Previous

16:15:44

The preliminary value of France's SPGI Services PMI for February

Previous : 47.90 Forecast : 49.70

美元
欧元 金银

Published Value 49.60

Previous

16:13:32

[War Clouds Loom Over the Middle East, German Bonds Become a New Favorite for Safe-Haven Investment] ⑴ As tensions between the US and Iran escalate sharply, the logic behind global safe-haven asset selection is undergoing subtle changes. Analysts at ING Group point out that German government bonds may be more favored than US Treasuries, as they offer investors a safe haven from the turmoil related to Iran. ⑵ This assessment is based on the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks. Reports indicate that the US is considering initial strikes against Iran to force a nuclear agreement, while military deployments have quietly begun. The market is currently struggling to determine whether this is merely a pressure tactic to strengthen negotiating power or a prelude to a substantial conflict. ⑶ Fund flows have begun to reflect this shift in preference. US Treasury yields, which rose on Thursday, stabilized on Friday, with Tradeweb data showing the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.073%. Meanwhile, German government bond yields fell 1.1 basis points to 2.732%, indicating that safe-haven funds are shifting towards core European government bonds. (4) The logic behind this differentiated choice lies in the fact that if a conflict breaks out, the United States, as a party involved, may face direct economic and inflationary shocks, while Germany, with its relatively isolated geographical location, can better fulfill its pure safe-haven function. As tensions escalate in the Middle East, German bonds are becoming a new choice for funds due to their pure safe-haven nature.

16:13:22

[Global Bond Markets Show Stark Contrasts: Yield Spreads Reveal New Patterns in Capital Flows] ⑴ Taking the US as a benchmark, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.077%, high among major global government bonds. It has a positive yield spread of 134 basis points with German bonds and a significant spread of 196.5 basis points with Japanese bonds, highlighting the continued attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets for yield-seeking funds. Only Australia and the UK have higher yields than the US, at 4.741% and 4.351% respectively. ⑵ The contrast in short-term interest rates is even more pronounced. The US 2-year yield is 3.476%, 142.7 basis points higher than Germany's and a staggering 221.8 basis points higher than Japan's. This extreme divergence in short-term yield spreads reflects significant differences in market pricing of central bank policy paths, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasting sharply with the easing expectations of other major central banks. ⑶ Observing the internal landscape of Europe through Germany reveals a different picture. The 10-year German bond yield is 2.735%, while Southern European countries such as Italy and Spain have premiums of 61 basis points and 36.7 basis points respectively, indicating that the market is still pricing in certain risk differences. The 57.2 basis point spread in French government bond yields also reflects investors' continued focus on the fiscal conditions of core European countries. (4) It is worth noting the independent trend of UK government bonds. Whether at the short or long end, UK bond yields are significantly higher than those of major European and American economies. The 2-year UK bond still has an 8.7 basis point premium over US Treasuries, and the 10-year premium is as high as 161.6 basis points. This reflects the market's unique pricing of UK inflation stickiness and central bank policy, creating a unique high-yield position in the global bond market. A global capital reallocation is quietly unfolding amidst these interest rate spread changes.

16:12:17

[French Wheat Crop Ratings Plummet as Weather Risks Begin to Be Priced In] ⑴ The latest data from the French Ministry of Agriculture shows a significant decline in the condition of the country's soft wheat crop. As of February 16, the good-to-excellent rating was 88%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week's 91%, ending the previous steady upward trend. This change has triggered a reassessment of growing conditions in Europe's largest wheat producer. ⑵ The condition of the barley crop is similarly concerning. During the same period, the good-to-excellent rating for winter barley fell from 88% to 84%, and for durum wheat, it dropped from 87% to 83%, a more significant decline. This indicates that recent weather fluctuations may have had a general impact on French grains as a whole, rather than being an isolated case for a single variety. ⑶ It is worth noting that planting is still underway. The winter barley planting rate reached 98%, and durum wheat reached 95%, both higher than the previous week. This means that the planting foundation for this season is solid, and market focus is shifting from the initial planted area to the critical period of yield formation. ⑷ Although the current rating is still significantly higher than the 74% of the same period last year, the continuous downward trend has injected a weather premium into the market. Before the North American and Black Sea wheat-producing regions reach their critical growth stages, crop conditions in France, serving as a bellwether for EU production, will be a significant factor influencing international wheat prices. The market will continue to monitor climate patterns in the coming weeks and their implications for rating repair or further deterioration.

16:10:37

[Inflation and War Clouds Intertwine, Putting the US Treasury Market in a Dilemma] ⑴ After a surge on Thursday, US Treasury yields have stabilized, with market focus shifting from the hawkish tone of the Fed minutes to key data to be released soon. At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday, US personal consumption expenditure inflation data and the revised fourth-quarter GDP figure will be released. These two core indicators may reshape market expectations for the interest rate path. ⑵ The data-driven game is intensifying. If inflation and growth data fall short of expectations, it could reignite bets on interest rate cuts this year, thus suppressing yields. However, recent economic indicators generally point to resilience, meaning that strong data will further solidify policymakers' current stance of having virtually no intention of cutting rates, putting pressure on the bond market. ⑶ Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are pushing US Treasuries to a logical crossroads. Investors are preparing for possible US military action against Iran, creating a dual and contradictory market impact: on the one hand, rising risk aversion could trigger an influx of funds into US Treasuries, pushing down yields; on the other hand, concerns that rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation are pushing up yield expectations. Deutsche Bank analysis points out that US Treasuries are caught in a tug-of-war between safe-haven buying and inflation concerns. (4) As of Tuesday, Tradeweb data showed the 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.073%, a level reflecting a temporary balance in the market amidst a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Future trends will depend on whether the data reinforces the narrative of economic resilience or opens a window for interest rate cuts, and also on whether the situation in the Middle East evolves from a potential conflict into a substantial supply shock.

15:36:39

[US-Iran Showdown looms, oil market senses tension] ⑴ The sudden escalation of tensions between the US and Iran is dominating short-term sentiment in the crude oil market. With the US setting a deadline for nuclear negotiations and Iran conducting joint military exercises with Russia and closing the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns about conflict have intensified. On Friday, oil prices climbed to a six-month high and are on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks. ⑵ The strategic waterway faces the risk of blockade, directly impacting supply expectations. Approximately 20% of global crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If conflict breaks out in the region, the channel for crude oil to enter the global market could be blocked, becoming the core logic behind bullish bets. Analysts point out that although investors are still debating whether supply will actually be disrupted, geopolitical premiums have once again become the main driver of the market. ⑶ On the supply side, fundamental data provides additional support. Latest data shows a significant decrease of 9 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, mainly due to increased refinery utilization and exports. Meanwhile, discussions within OPEC+ favoring a resumption of production increases starting in April are interacting with the bullish factors brought about by the current tensions. (4) However, macroeconomic pressures limited further upside potential for oil prices. The market is focused on the interest rate path of the world's largest oil consumer. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested that if inflation persists, interest rates may be maintained or even raised further, which could suppress medium- to long-term demand. Institutional views indicate that the supply glut that began in the second half of 2025 continued in January, and this trend is likely to continue. If demand fails to keep pace, the market will face a significant supply glut later this year, requiring substantial production cuts to prevent a large increase in inventories. In the short term, geopolitics plays a role; in the long term, the balance of supply and demand matters. The game for oil prices is far from over.

15:25:15

[Polish Politics and Economy: A Storm is Brewing] ⑴ Poland's political deadlock has escalated again. Nationalist President Karl Nałacki vetoed a bill on Thursday to reform the way judges are appointed, further exacerbating the long-standing confrontation with Prime Minister Tusk's government and plunging the reform agenda into deeper stagnation. This veto has heightened market concerns about Poland's rule of law and the prospects for the unfreezing of EU funds. ⑵ At the macroeconomic policy level, members of the Monetary Policy Committee reiterated their support for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, opposing a more aggressive 50-basis-point move. This indicates that the central bank still favors a cautiously accommodative stance to address the delicate balance between inflation and economic downturn. ⑶ Meanwhile, Polish businesses are pessimistic about key strategic directions. Only 23% of CEOs of large and medium-sized Polish companies support adopting the euro, the lowest level since 2011. Opponents are as high as 66%, showing that in the current global environment, businesses prefer to maintain the autonomy of their own currency to avoid additional exchange rate risks and transition costs. ⑷ It is worth noting that despite high political and policy uncertainty, the fundamentals of some sectors remain resilient. Bank Pekao, Poland's second-largest bank, reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, thanks to double-digit growth in fee income, which successfully offset pressure from declining net interest margins. Its share price rose by approximately 1%. This demonstrates that even amidst macroeconomic headwinds, some companies can still achieve breakthroughs through organic growth. The market will closely monitor the substantial impact of future political changes on consumer and investment confidence.

15:02:45

Net borrowing by the UK public sector excluding banking groups in January

Previous : 115.78 Forecast : -238

Published Value -303.67

Previous

15:02:04

The UK government's revenue and expenditure were short in January

Previous : 169.08 Forecast : -

Published Value -593.06

Previous

15:02:03

Net public sector borrowing in the UK in January

Previous : 115.78 Forecast : -

Published Value -303.67

Previous

15:01:18

The seasonally adjusted year-on-year rate of core retail sales in the UK for January

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : 3.60%

Published Value 5.50%

Previous

15:01:08

The seasonally adjusted core retail sales monthly rate for the UK in January

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 2%

Previous

15:00:56

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of retail sales in the UK for January

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : 2.80%

Published Value 4.50%

Previous

15:00:46

Seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate in the UK for January

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.20%

英镑 金银
美元

Published Value 1.80%

Previous

15:00:46

Seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate in the UK for January

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 1.80%

Previous

15:00:46

The seasonally adjusted core retail sales monthly rate for the UK in January

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.20%

英镑 金银
美元

Published Value 2%

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

 84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

 66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

 71.58

-0.31

(-0.44%)

USD

 97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

 1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

 6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)
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