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2026-11-06 Friday

2026-11-06

09:28:50

[Non-farm payrolls report may trigger Fed rate hike repricing] (1) AAStocks reports that the October non-farm payrolls report released on Friday may trigger the market to repric the Fed's rate hike path; the futures market shows that the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting is close to 80%, and its impact may continue until the November employment report is released in early December. (2) If the employment data is strong, the Fed can focus more on controlling inflation, and the market may need to re-evaluate the currently expected two additional rate hikes. (3) Analysts predict that non-farm payrolls will increase by 65,000 in October (compared to 29,000 in September), the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%; wages will rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; and weekly working hours will remain at 34.4 hours. The total pay index has stabilized since bottoming out in December 2025, indicating that the slowdown in the labor market and wages has stabilized. (4) Although wages and new jobs have slowed, they are still in line with the 4% to 5% annual growth before the pandemic; the problem is that high inflation is weakening real wages, and the Fed needs to focus more on its inflation mission. (5) If the unemployment rate does not rise sharply and the number of new jobs does not fall unexpectedly, the market's view on the policy path is expected to remain unchanged; if the data far exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate falls significantly, it may increase the probability of a rate hike in December and lead to earlier or more rate hikes. (6) The market currently expects one rate hike in December, another in 2027, and the rate hike cycle to end in 2027; if the October and November reports are both strong, the market will worry that there will be more than two rate hikes.

09:13:57

Goldman Sachs Lowers Gold Price Forecasts for 2026 and 2027, Citing Fed Hawkish Stance Suppressing Investment Demand. 1. Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, and its year-end 2027 forecast to $4,800 per ounce from $5,400. The bank stated that the main reason for the downward revision was the more hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve in recent months. 2. Goldman Sachs stated that global central bank buying continues to provide strong structural support for gold prices, but rising interest rates have weakened investor holdings, resulting in a relatively moderate net increase in gold prices. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in late 2027 or early 2028, at which point the constraint of interest rates on gold prices is expected to weaken, and private investor demand may once again support gold prices in conjunction with central bank structural buying. 3. In Goldman Sachs' scenario, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in March and the final rate of this round is higher, gold prices could reach $4,660 per ounce by the end of 2027. The bank also warned that rising oil prices could increase downward pressure on gold prices through systemic selling; a sharp correction in the stock market could force investors to raise cash due to margin calls and broader deleveraging, thus initially dragging down gold prices. However, Goldman Sachs believes that structural demand from central banks will continue to support gold prices, and private wealth management institutions and other long-term investors may also view gold as a tool to hedge against fiscal sustainability risks.

09:07:02

[Hot News Recap: Fed Officials Advocate Gradual Rate Hikes; Midterm Elections May Change Inflation and Interest Rate Paths] 1. Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday advocated for a moderate and steady pace of rate hikes to address inflation, which remains above target. This marks the first public statement from Fed officials since Democrats regained control of Congress and made progress in state elections. Cleveland Fed President Hamak stated that monetary policy needs to shift to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner; she favors more frequent, smaller adjustments to mitigate the impact on households, businesses, and financial markets. 2. Richmond Fed President Barkin also believes that gradual rate hikes are reasonable. He stated that inflation is "too high" and remains high without easing, making the policy implications quite clear. The Fed maintained its target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% last week, despite acknowledging that inflation is higher than expected; the Fed raised rates in September, and the market widely expects another rate hike in December, but the path thereafter remains unclear. 3. The midterm election results may change the trajectory of price pressures. Besides the Democrats regaining control of Congress, voters in many states oppose building data centers, which may reduce demand for equipment and other inputs from tech companies, thus easing price pressures. Evercore ISI stated that approval challenges in large states like Texas will slow AI capital spending, reduce the risk of economic overheating in the next year or two, and may extend the AI investment cycle, reducing the need for further multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 4. However, Evercore ISI also pointed out that the tightening of AI-related financial conditions slightly tilts the balance towards another Fed rate hike. TD Securities still expects the Fed to raise rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by early next year, but stated that if the election results lead to an end to the Iran war or a cooling of AI investment, further tightening may not be necessary after March. 5. In the market, tech stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down 11.9% from its record high on October 6, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all experiencing their biggest single-day declines since April 3, 2025. Futures traders are still betting on a rate hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting, with a probability of about 68%, down from over 80% on Wednesday. 6. The U.S. jobs report will be released on Friday. The market expects 65,000 new jobs in October, up from 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. BMO Capital Markets states that unless the jobs data is significantly weak, it is unlikely to disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plans; as long as the unemployment rate remains near its current level, the Fed can still determine that the labor market is stable.

08:49:16

[Hot Market Recap: Nasdaq Suffers Largest Single-Day Drop in 19 Months, AI Regulatory Concerns Trigger Sell-Off in Chip Stocks] 1. US stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.52%, its largest single-day drop in 19 months, confirming it has entered a technical correction phase; the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.44%. The total market capitalization of S&P 500 components evaporated by approximately $3 trillion. 2. Following the Democrats' victory in Congress, the market worried about stricter AI regulations, especially rising opposition in some states to new data centers, which could slow down AI infrastructure development. Nvidia plunged more than 9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted more than 12%. 3. In terms of individual stocks, Qualcomm fell 9.5% due to weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales; Meta fell 4%, and Amazon and Alphabet both fell 2.2%. Data center companies IREN and Applied Digital both fell more than 14%, and CoreWeave fell nearly 10%; AI-related utility and equipment suppliers GE Vernova and Constellation Energy also declined. Tesla and SpaceX also fell, despite Musk's nearly $500 million spending on Republican candidates in the midterm elections. Analysts say this sell-off resembles a "capitulation sell-off" in data center capital expenditure beneficiaries, particularly semiconductor stocks, but the volatility may be excessive. Despite Thursday's sharp decline, the S&P 500 is still up 7.4% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq is still up 4.6%.

08:41:52

[“Blue Tsunami” Impacts AI Transactions: US and Asian Chip Stocks Plunge, Data Center Regulatory Risks Become Focus] (1) Following the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the US midterm elections, market concerns about stricter regulations on AI and data centers triggered a continuous sell-off in tech stocks. (2) US stocks plummeted on Thursday: the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6.4%, and the market value evaporated by $2.5 trillion; the S&P 500 component stocks lost about $3 trillion in market value; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, Nvidia fell 9%, and AMD fell 17%. (3) Data centers and new cloud service providers suffered heavy losses: CoreWeave fell 10%, and its five-year CDS spread hit a record high; Nebius fell 15%, and Applied Digital, Cipher Digital and IREN all fell by more than 14%; the decline spread to related utilities and equipment suppliers. (4) Analysts say that the slowdown in data center construction may become a persistent theme; UBS estimates that about 30% of the new data center capacity expected in the United States in 2028 may be at risk due to the suspension of construction, and the timing of Anthropic's fall IPO may also be affected. (5) Several Democrats publicly criticized data centers: Sanders called for a nationwide suspension of data centers, and Ansari said it should be the top priority for the House Democratic majority; Andrews, Brown, Shapiro and Texas Governor-elect Hinojosa also advocated for restrictions or suspension of approvals. A CNBC poll showed that 56% of voters listed AI and data centers as key factors in their votes, of which 65% voted for Democrats. (6) Asian markets were under pressure: the Nikkei 225 fell below 60,000 points, down 6.5%, facing the risk of a technical bear market; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 10% in early trading, dragging down the Kospi by 8.8%, and the exchange once suspended trading for 20 minutes. The Kospi has fallen 46% from its June high. (7) Market sentiment has shifted to panic selling, with the focus shifting from the prospects of AI to the cost of AI; AI remains transformative in the long term, but individual stock pricing faces significant volatility.

08:29:47

US SPDR Gold Holdings - Daily Update (tons) - November 5

Previous : 1040.51 Forecast : -

Published Value 1040.51

Previous

08:29:46

US SPDR Gold Holdings Changes - Daily (tons) - November 5

Previous : 2.85 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

08:03:26

[Trump Says "Major Deal" on Russia-Ukraine Relations Will Be Reached] US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on May 5 that a "major deal" on the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be reached, and he believed that the country was "very close" to resolving the issue. Trump said the agreement would not be limited to Ukraine and could even encompass the whole of Europe. Trump also said he met with Russian Presidential Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev at the White House, but not with Ukrainian representatives. He declined to reveal the specific content of the talks. Trump's wife, Melania Trump, met with Russian and Ukrainian officials at the White House on May 5 regarding the successful implementation of the Oreshki ceasefire. Kirill Dmitriev, David Allakhamia, chairman of the parliamentary group of the ruling Servant of the People party of Ukraine, and Dmytro Lubenets, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Commissioner for Human Rights, attended the event. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, posted on social media that the United States, Ukraine, NATO, and European partners held productive and substantive discussions in Brussels on May 5, covering topics such as security guarantees for Ukraine and the broader European security architecture. U.S. Presidential Envoy Witkov posted on social media on the 2nd that the U.S. will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, from the 10th to the 11th, in an effort to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Xinhua)

07:50:56

Foreign investors bought Japanese government bonds in the week ending October 30 (in billions of yen).

Previous : 433 Forecast : -

Published Value 14817

Previous

07:50:40

Japan's purchases of foreign stocks in the week ending October 30 (in billions of yen)

Previous : 2881 Forecast : -

Published Value 10777

Previous

07:50:03

Japan's purchases of foreign bonds in the week ending October 30 (in billions of yen)

Previous : -926 Forecast : -

Published Value 13120

Previous

07:50:02

Foreign investment in Japanese stocks in the week ending October 30 (in billions of yen)

Previous : 11809 Forecast : -

Published Value 11293

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