2026-02-20 Friday
2026-02-22
23:09:46
The final reading of consumer expectations for the University of Michigan in the United States in February
Previous
:
56.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
56.60
Previous
23:06:26
[S&P Global: US Business Activity Slows to 10-Month Low in February] (1) Data from the S&P Global survey released on Friday showed that US business activity slowed to its lowest level in 10 months in February, mainly dragged down by factors such as reduced factory orders, weak growth in new business in the service sector, and a general standstill in job growth. (2) S&P Global disclosed that its US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 52.3 in early February from 53.0 in January, the lowest level since April last year. It is worth noting that a PMI reading above 50 usually means that the private sector economy is in an expansionary range. Although it maintained an expansionary trend in February, the growth rate slowed down significantly, with both the service and manufacturing PMIs showing slight declines. (3) Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, pointed out that PMI data this year shows that the annualized growth rate of US gross domestic product (GDP) is only about 1.5%, which indicates that the US economy cooled down significantly in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the strong growth performance in the second half of last year. (4) Specifically, the services PMI fell from 52.7 in January to 52.3 in February, lower than the 53.0 expected by economists in a previous Reuters survey; the manufacturing PMI fell from 52.4 to 51.2, a new low in seven months, also lower than the market consensus expectation of 52.6, and new orders in the industry declined for the second time in three months.
23:01:34
The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 49,600.00 mark, currently trading at 49,607.10, up 0.43% on the day; the S&P 500 just broke through the 6,900.00 mark, currently trading at 6,900.88, up 0.57% on the day; and the Nasdaq Composite just broke through the 22,800.00 mark, currently trading at 22,835.93, up 0.68% on the day.
23:00:47
The seasonally adjusted annualized total of new home sales in the United States for November
Previous
:
73.70
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
74.50
Previous
23:00:47
The seasonally adjusted annualized monthly rate of new home sales in the United States for November
Previous
:
-0.10%
Forecast
:
0.40%
Published Value
-1.70%
Previous
23:00:24
The final reading of the University of Michigan's five-year inflation rate forecast for the United States in February
Previous
:
3.30%
Forecast
:
3.40%
Published Value
3.30%
Previous
23:00:03
The final reading of the economic situation of the University of Michigan in the United States for February
Previous
:
55.40
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
56.60
Previous
23:00:02
The final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for February in the United States
Previous
:
56.40
Forecast
:
57.30
Published Value
56.60
Previous
23:00:02
The final reading of the University of Michigan's one-year inflation rate forecast for the United States in February
Previous
:
4%
Forecast
:
3.50%
Published Value
3.40%
Previous
22:45:03
The preliminary value of the US SPGI Composite PMI for February
Previous
:
52.80
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
52.30
Previous
22:45:03
The preliminary value of the US SPGI Services PMI for February
Previous
:
52.50
Forecast
:
53
Published Value
52.30
Previous
22:45:02
The preliminary value of the US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for February
Previous
:
51.90
Forecast
:
52.60
Published Value
51.20
Previous
22:35:27
[Government shutdown drags down US GDP growth in Q4] The US economy slowed significantly in the fourth quarter due to the record government shutdown in the fall of 2025 and weak consumption. (1) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, far below Wall Street’s expectation of 2.5%, and a significant slowdown from the high growth rate of 4.4% in the third quarter. Federal government spending fell sharply by 16.6% in the quarter. (2) For the whole year, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.2% year-on-year in 2025, lower than 2.4% in 2024, the weakest since 2022; on a year-on-year basis of total output, the growth rate is 2.2%, also lower than 2.8% in 2024. (3) The Department of Commerce said that the impact of the government shutdown from October 1 to November 12 “cannot be fully quantified”, but the contraction of federal services alone lowered the real GDP growth rate by about 1 percentage point in the quarter. (4) Before the data was released, Trump accused the Democrats on social media of creating a shutdown and damaging GDP, and again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not cutting interest rates enough.
22:17:49
[US Stock Futures Fall Across the Board Amid Slowing GDP and Rising PCE] ⑴ US stock index futures fell across the board on Friday, as the market reacted negatively to the double whammy of a sharp economic slowdown and unexpectedly high inflation. As of 8:56 a.m. ET, Dow Jones futures were down 0.22%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.28%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.43%. A chief investment strategist at BOK Financial noted that a combination of lower-than-expected growth and higher-than-expected inflation is generally not good news for the stock market. ⑵ Economic data showed an unusual divergence. Fourth-quarter GDP annualized growth plummeted to 1.4% from 4.4% in the third quarter, far below the expected 3.0%. The record government shutdown and slowing consumer spending were the main drags. Meanwhile, core PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month in December and climbed to 3% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations and reaching their highest level since February 2025. ⑶ Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain cautious. Traders are still betting on a possible Fed rate cut in June, but the data mix hasn't reinforced this timeline. Analysts believe that despite slowing growth, sticky inflation means the Fed doesn't need aggressive rate cuts, and current data still aligns with this narrative. (4) Tech stocks continue to be under pressure. Concerns about overvaluation and the effectiveness of AI investments have been weighing on the tech sector in recent months. Akamai Technologies fell 7.4% pre-market after expecting adjusted first-quarter profits to be lower than Wall Street expectations. Copart fell 10.1% after second-quarter profits and revenue both declined. (5) Private equity stocks faced selling pressure. Blue Cat Capital fell 1.8% pre-market, after falling 5.9% the previous day, as its latest strategy shocked investors and dragged down its peers. KKR and Apollo Global Management each fell 1%. (6) Geopolitical risks continue to unfold. Oil prices retreated from six-month highs as investors assessed the impact of US-Iran tensions. Trump warned Iran that it must reach an agreement on its nuclear program or face very serious consequences. Energy stocks, including ExxonMobil and Chevron, fell slightly after rising in the previous trading day. (7) The market is also focused on the Supreme Court's potential ruling on Trump's tariffs. According to Wharton's budget model, if the tariffs are rejected, the U.S. would need to refund more than $175 billion in tariffs, a potential risk that adds uncertainty to the market.
21:46:04
[Canadian Retail Data Shows Mixed Performance: December Decline, January Strong Rebound] ⑴ After a year-end decline, the Canadian retail market is poised for a significant rebound at the start of the new year. Statistics Canada released data on Friday showing that seasonally adjusted retail sales fell 0.4% to C$70.01 billion in December, slightly better than economists' expectations of a 0.5% decline. Preliminary sales data for January, however, indicate a strong rebound, with an expected increase of 1.5%, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since the end of 2024. ⑵ The December decline continued the volatile trend for retailers. After a 1.2% increase in November, retail activity weakened again in December. Overall retail activity is projected to increase slightly by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 4% for the year. ⑶ By sector, motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decline, becoming the main drag on December's retail sales. Gas stations and fuel suppliers, on the other hand, performed strongly, with revenue increasing by 2.8%, marking the second consecutive month of growth, and fuel sales increasing by 4.5% in terms of volume. ⑷ Core retail performance was weak. Core retail sales, excluding car dealerships and gas stations, fell 0.3% between November and December, erasing some of the 1.5% increase from the previous month. Sales of building materials, gardening equipment, furniture, and electronics all declined. (5) Preliminary forecasts for January contrasted with data from RBC's cardholder tracking system. The bank's data showed that customer spending cooled in the first month of 2026, with retail spending declining 0.3% on a three-month average basis, the first decline after 13 consecutive months of growth. Economists pointed to severe weather and post-holiday fatigue as possible factors dampening spending. (6) The macroeconomic backdrop is complex. While inflationary pressures in Canada have been largely contained over the past two years, unemployment remains high. Trade uncertainty and continued tariffs continue to weigh on the economy, which may have stalled in the last quarter of last year. The Bank of Canada expects resilient domestic consumption to help drive moderate economic growth this year.
21:44:41
[Humanoid Robots Dominate Spring Festival Gala, Shoucheng Holdings' Investment Portfolio Realizes Value] ⑴ The CCTV Spring Festival Gala for the Year of the Horse has concluded, with the humanoid robot swarm performance becoming the most talked-about highlight. Unitree Robotics, Songyan Power, Galaxy General, and Magic Atom showcased their core products on stage, demonstrating the diverse breakthroughs of China's robotics industry through technologies such as high-dynamic swarm control, consumer-grade product implementation, and large-scale embodied model applications. ⑵ Behind these three companies stands the same strategic investor. Unitree Robotics, Songyan Power, and Galaxy General, the three Spring Festival Gala stars, share the common shareholder of Shoucheng Holdings. From capital investment to application scenarios, from technology research and development to national exposure, Shoucheng's forward-looking bet on the robotics sector has resulted in a concentrated realization of its ecosystem value during the Spring Festival Gala. ⑶ The three companies had clear roles on the Spring Festival Gala stage. Unitree Robotics appeared three times, providing a humanoid robot formation for the performance of "Wu BOT," achieving the world's first continuous table-flipping parkour and catapult somersaults. Songyan Power made its debut, showcasing its consumer product, priced at tens of thousands of yuan, in the skit "Grandma's Favorite," with anthropomorphic eyes and breathing. Galaxy General collaborated with Shen Teng and Ma Li, with its robot Xiao Gai performing dexterous tasks like playing with walnuts and folding clothes in real time based on a large-scale embodied model. (4) Shoucheng's empowerment logic has been fully implemented. At the capital level, it completed its investments during the critical growth stages of three companies. Now, Unitree has initiated its IPO process, Songyan has achieved mass production, and Galaxy General has launched its Galaxy Space Capsule project in multiple locations. At the scenario level, Taozhu Xinzaoju Robotics Technology Complex provides offline monetization channels for its portfolio companies, with plans to open 20 stores this year. At the ecosystem level, it promotes technological complementarity and product synergy among its portfolio companies, forming a complete closed loop. (5) For Shoucheng, the Spring Festival Gala appearance has dual value. On the one hand, it brings massive brand exposure to its portfolio companies, driving product sales growth and generating financial returns for investors through equity gains. On the other hand, it validates the correctness of its robotics investment strategy. With the improvement of offline channels and the continued maturation of its portfolio companies, the robotics ecosystem is transitioning from the investment and layout phase to the value realization phase.
21:42:28
[US GDP and PCE Data Show Contradictory Trends, Stock Index Futures Plunge] ⑴ A combination of a significant downward revision to US Q4 GDP and a stronger-than-expected rise in December's core PCE pressured stock index futures downward on Friday. As of 8:34 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.28%, Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.39%, and Dow Jones futures were down 0.23%. ⑵ Growth data was significantly weaker than expected. The Commerce Department report showed that Q4 real GDP grew at an annualized rate of only 1.4%, far below market expectations of 3.0% and a significant drop from Q3's 4.4%. The record 43-day government shutdown was a major drag, with federal spending falling at its fastest pace since 1972. ⑶ Inflation data, however, unexpectedly rose. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge—the December personal consumption expenditures index—rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.3%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations. On the annualized front, core PCE rose to 3%, a new high since February 2025. (4) This data combination sends a complex signal to the market. Slower economic growth typically favors expectations of interest rate cuts, but rising inflation diminishes the urgency for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. The interplay of these two forces caused stock index futures to react downwards after the data release, reflecting that market concerns about stagflation outweigh expectations of interest rate cuts. (5) Investors will reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path. Higher-than-expected inflation may make policymakers more cautious in their assessment of the timing of interest rate cuts in 2026, while slower growth increases the risk of policy missteps. The interest rate futures market will repric this, and volatility is expected to amplify further in subsequent trading.
21:38:24
Preliminary value of the annualized real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter
Previous
:
240268
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
241118
Previous
21:38:07
The preliminary reading of the quarterly rate of the US GDP price index for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
3.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.60%
Previous
21:37:56
[US Core PCE Rises to 3%, a One-Year High; Q4 GDP Sharply Revised Down to 1.4%] ⑴ The US December core PCE price index rose 3% year-on-year, a new high since February 2025, higher than the market expectation of 2.9%. Month-on-month, core PCE rose 0.4%, also the largest increase since February 2025, exceeding the expected 0.3%. This data shows that inflation stickiness continues to strengthen. ⑵ In contrast to rising inflation, economic growth has slowed significantly. The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter was only 1.4%, a new low since the first quarter of 2025, far below the market expectation of 3.0%. This combination presents complex challenges for the Federal Reserve's policy-making. ⑶ Government spending became a major drag on growth. The fourth quarter saw the fastest decline in federal spending since 1972, with government spending falling at a rate of 5.1%, the largest decline since 2020. The Congressional Budget Office previously estimated that the record 43-day government shutdown cost the quarterly GDP by about 1.5 percentage points. (4) Growth slowed across the board throughout the year. US GDP growth is projected at 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024. This slowdown contrasts with persistently high inflation, reinforcing market concerns about the risk of stagflation. (5) Following the data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path will need to be recalibrated. The combination of unexpectedly high inflation and unexpectedly slowing growth complicates policymakers' trade-offs between controlling inflation and stabilizing growth. The interest rate futures market will repric the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts.
21:36:51
[US Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Down to 1.4%, Dragged Down by Government Shutdown and Slowing Consumption] ⑴ US economic growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter. Data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the annualized GDP growth rate for the last quarter was revised to 1.4%, far below market expectations of 3.0% and significantly lower than the 4.4% in the third quarter. This belated data was delayed due to the record 43-day government shutdown. ⑵ The government shutdown was one of the main factors dragging down growth. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that reduced federal services, decreased spending on goods and services, and a temporary reduction in nutrition assistance benefits cost fourth-quarter GDP 1.5 percentage points. Most of the loss is expected to be recovered eventually, but $7 billion to $14 billion will remain unrecovered. ⑶ Consumption spending growth slowed significantly. From 3.5% in the third quarter to the current level, spending was mainly driven by high-income households, while inflation weakened purchasing power, forcing some households to maintain spending at the expense of savings. Before the data release, Trump stated on social media that the shutdown cost GDP at least two percentage points and called for lower interest rates. (4) The report reveals a structural divergence in the US economy, exhibiting jobless expansion and a K-shaped economic pattern: high-income households benefit from rising stock and asset prices, while low-income consumers struggle with tariff-driven inflation and stagnant wage growth, creating what economists call an affordability crisis. (5) The job market is weak. Only 181,000 jobs were added last year, the worst performance since the Great Recession of 2009, excluding the pandemic period, far below the 1.459 million added in 2024. This figure contrasts with GDP growth, reinforcing the narrative of a jobless recovery. (6) Despite weak fourth-quarter data, forces supporting the economy this year are building. Tax cuts are expected to bring more tax refunds, boosting consumer spending. AI-related investments are a structural bright spot, with AI investments, including data centers, semiconductors, software, and R&D, contributing about one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, partially offsetting the impact of tariffs and reduced immigration. (7) This outdated report has limited impact on current monetary policy. However, the economic divergence and growth quality issues it reveals will continue to be the focus of policy discussions and market attention.
21:36:35
[Aluminum Prices Hit One-Week High, Copper Inventory Surge Drags Down Third Consecutive Weekly Decline] ⑴ Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange hit a one-week high on Friday, while three-month copper rose 0.3% to $3,078, briefly reaching $3,103, its strongest level since February 13. The core factor supporting aluminum prices remains persistent supply concerns; since hitting its highest level since April 2022 on January 29, aluminum prices have fallen by 8%. ⑵ Supply constraints are key to aluminum price resilience. ING strategists point out that aluminum has outperformed other metals because its global supply growth remains constrained, making it more sensitive to minor improvements in sentiment. Production in China, a major producer, is nearing the government-set annual capacity limit of 45 million tons, while a US smelter has shut down due to high electricity prices. ⑶ The copper market faces a completely different set of pressures. LME three-month copper rose slightly by 0.1% to $12,820, but is on track for a weekly decline of about 1%, marking its third consecutive week of losses. A surge in inventories is the main drag. (4) LME copper inventory data released on Friday showed that registered warehouse receipts increased by 9,575 tons to 235,150 tons, the highest level since March 2025. Inventories have surged 65% year-to-date, exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. (5) Overall market trading was subdued. Trading volume was moderate due to the Shanghai Futures Exchange being closed for the Spring Festival holiday. Analysts pointed out that some position adjustments occurred before the weekend, and liquidity and price discovery functions are expected to improve after Chinese participants return next week. (6) A stronger US dollar put additional pressure on the metals market. The US dollar index is on track for its biggest weekly gain since October, supported by better-than-expected economic data and a more hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve. A strong dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
21:34:17
Canada's monthly retail sales rate for December
Previous
:
1.30%
Forecast
:
-0.50%
Published Value
-0.40%
Previous
21:34:12
Canada's core retail sales monthly rate for December
Previous
:
1.70%
Forecast
:
-0.30%
Published Value
0.10%
Previous
21:33:58
The quarter-on-quarter rate of the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP deflator - seasonally adjusted preliminary value
Previous
:
3.70%
Forecast
:
2.90%
Published Value
3.70%
Previous
21:33:34
The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US PCE price index for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
2.80%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.90%
Previous
21:33:23
Preliminary annualized quarter-on-quarter rate of final sales in the United States for the fourth quarter
Previous
:
4.50%
Forecast
:
2.60%
Published Value
1.20%
Previous
21:33:15
The monthly rate of the US PCE price index for December
Previous
:
0.20%
Forecast
:
0.30%
Published Value
0.40%
Previous
21:33:09
The annual rate of the US PCE price index for December
Previous
:
2.80%
Forecast
:
2.90%
Published Value
2.90%
Previous
21:32:40
The monthly rate of personal income in the United States in December
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0.30%
Published Value
0.30%
Previous
21:32:04
The monthly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the United States in December
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0.40%
Published Value
0.10%
Previous
21:31:50
The monthly rate of Canada's factory price index for industrial products in January
Previous
:
-0.60%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.70%
Previous
21:31:43
The annual rate of Canada's factory price index for industrial products in January
Previous
:
4.90%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
5.40%
Previous
21:31:40
Canada's raw materials price index monthly rate for January
Previous
:
0.50%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
7.70%
Previous
21:31:40
U.S. New wheat export sales for the week ending February 12 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
49.80
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
36.11
Previous
21:31:40
U.S. net export sales for the week ending February 12 - wheat for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
1.39
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.85
Previous
21:31:39
New pork export sales in the United States as of February 12 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
3.11
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.01
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. net export sales for the week ending February 12 - Soybean meal for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. new beef export sales for the week ending February 12 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
1.82
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.58
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. net export sales for the week ending February 12 - total soybean oil for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.21
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.14
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. net export sales for the week ending February 12 - Soybean total for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
28.31
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
86.42
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. net export sales for the week ending February 12 - Soybean oil for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.03
Previous
21:31:39
U.S. net export sales for the week ended February 12 - Soybean oil for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.21
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.11
Previous
21:31:38
U.S. net export sales for the week ended February 12 - cotton for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
23.10
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
46.63
Previous
Details>
