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2026-11-05 Thursday

2026-11-06

20:02:35

[Bank of England Raises Rates for First Time Since 2023; Inflation Outlook to Determine Future Path] ⑴ The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.0% on Thursday, its first rate hike in over three years. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1, with Mann voting for a 0.5 percentage point increase and the remaining members supporting a 0.25 percentage point increase. ⑵ Governor Bailey stated that current energy prices have accumulated sufficient inflationary pressure, justifying the rate hike. However, unless the Middle East conflict is resolved, this action may not be the last rate hike, emphasizing that it should not be seen as the start of a series of rate hikes. ⑶ The Bank of England's latest forecasts show that, under the baseline scenario, CPI will peak at around 5% in the second quarter of 2027 and only fall back to the 2% target in the third quarter of 2028, about two quarters later than previously predicted. ⑷ The Bank of England raised its economic growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 1.6% and 1.3% respectively, noting that stronger-than-expected activity data strengthened the case for tightening monetary policy, but expects growth to slow in the coming quarters. (5) Vice Governor Lombardelli and Chief Economist Peale believe there are reasons for further rate hikes in the near term. Committee member Green indicated that continued rate hikes may be necessary, while Taylor and Dingela stated that this rate hike is insurance against a worse inflation outcome. (6) The central bank expects the government budget to suppress inflation by approximately 0.25 percentage points in the second quarter of 2027, subsequently pushing it up as the effect fades. The budget is projected to boost demand by approximately 0.1% in 2026-2027. (7) Regarding the labor market, the central bank forecasts an unemployment rate of 4.8% in 2026, with private sector regular wages growing by 3.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026. Real after-tax labor income is expected to decline in both this year and next. (8) The implied bank interest rate path from market rates shows 3.9% in the fourth quarter of 2026, and 4.9% in both the fourth quarters of 2027 and 2028. Bailey stated that the upward curve in the market partially reflects risk premiums rather than expected interest rates. (9) The central bank also cautioned that the energy price risk stemming from the conflict between the US and Iran remains a key variable for the inflation outlook. Under an unfavorable scenario, if oil prices peak at approximately $130 per barrel, inflation would reach 6.2% in the third quarter of 2027.

20:00:00

Brazil's unadjusted industrial production year-on-year growth rate in September

Previous : -1.20% Forecast : -1.70%

Published Value -2.50%

Previous

20:00:00

Bank of England benchmark interest rate in November

Previous : 3.75% Forecast : 4%

Neutral

Published Value 4%

Previous

20:00:00

Brazil's seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month rate in September

Previous : -0.60% Forecast : -0.20%

Published Value -0.80%

Previous

20:00:00

Mexico's total fixed asset investment in August (month-on-month rate)

Previous : 1.40% Forecast : -0.60%

Published Value -1.80%

Previous

20:00:00

Mexico's total fixed asset investment annual rate in August

Previous : 6.60% Forecast : 6.50%

Published Value 5.70%

Previous

20:00:00

The Bank of England's MPC voted in favor of an interest rate cut in November.

Previous : 0 Forecast : 0

Neutral

Published Value 0

Previous

20:00:00

Mexico's October Consumer Confidence Index - Unadjusted

Previous : 45.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 45.20

Previous

20:00:00

Mexico's October Consumer Confidence Index - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 45.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 45

Previous

20:00:00

The Bank of England's MPC voted in favor of raising interest rates in November.

Previous : 3 Forecast : 7

Published Value 9

Previous

20:00:00

The Bank of England's November MPC voted to keep interest rates unchanged.

Previous : 6 Forecast : 2

Published Value 0

Previous

19:47:55

[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Report Preview: New Jobs Expected to Rebound Moderately, Interest Rate Hike Path Pricing Faces Test] ⑴ The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October non-farm payrolls report on Friday (November 6th) Beijing time. The market expects an increase of 65,000 non-farm jobs, a significant rebound from 29,000 in September; the unemployment rate is expected to remain low at 4.2%, and the month-on-month growth rate of average hourly earnings may rise from 0.1% to 0.3%. ⑵ Leading indicators release stabilizing signals: October ADP private sector employment increased by 86,000, higher than market expectations, with trade and transportation, education, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality being the main drivers; JOLTS job openings rose to 7.523 million in September, with layoffs falling to a near two-year low, and initial jobless claims remaining near historical lows. (3) Market View: Current interest rate futures pricing suggest an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. A moderate jobs report (between 50,000 and 70,000 jobs) best reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" scenario, confirming the economy hasn't deteriorated without significantly increasing inflationary pressures. If new jobs significantly exceed 100,000 and wages accelerate, it will strengthen expectations of a rate hike and suppress tech stock valuations. (4) Institutional forecasts show significant divergence. Barclays expects only 50,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to slightly decrease to 4.1%, while some institutions anticipate around 100,000. Given that ADP and official non-farm payrolls have a long-term trend but fluctuate significantly monthly, a single report could exacerbate short-term disturbances to the dollar and gold prices.

19:03:07

[US Midterm Elections Concluded, Democratic Party Begins Fierce Battle for 2028 Presidential Election] ⑴ With the US midterm elections officially concluded, the Democratic Party immediately launched its 2028 presidential primaries, with dozens expected to run. Currently, there is no clear frontrunner, and policy differences are expected to intensify further. ⑵ Intense internal competition is underway within the Democratic Party: one faction advocates for a steadfast centrist approach, while the other insists on continuing to push policies to the left. Healthcare, taxes, law enforcement, and foreign policy will be key areas of contention. ⑶ Following the Democratic Party's landslide victory in the midterm elections, many potential Democratic candidates are capitalizing on the momentum. Nearly 30 politicians are assessing their candidacy, and several governors and senators are already positioning themselves in early primary states. ⑷ The Republican candidate camp is smaller, with Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio leading the campaign; however, hampered by the setbacks of Trump's policies, candidates face a dilemma: maintaining their MAGA base while also winning over centrist voters. (5) Vance, constrained by his vice-presidential position, finds it difficult to distance himself from Trump; other leading candidates such as Rubio and DeSantis have also not yet officially announced their candidacy, and Trump still firmly controls the party's discourse.

18:51:32

[US AI Development Slows Down, Market Reactions Diverge] ⑴ Voters clearly put the brakes on AI development this week, but large tech company stocks are still rising. Gains in companies like Microsoft and Amazon reflect Wall Street's growing recognition that a slowdown in the AI race may not be a bad thing. ⑵ If companies can postpone massive spending commitments, they can demonstrate healthier cash flow, avoid financing costs, and potentially circumvent high-risk investments. ⑶ Large tech hyperscale cloud service providers were among the big winners in Wednesday's post-election relief rally, with Microsoft rising about 7%, Amazon about 6%, and Alphabet about 3%. ⑷ These companies generate substantial cash flow through businesses like advertising, cloud computing, or software and don't necessarily need to rapidly transform into AI companies. ⑸ Some commentators point out that while the delays are frustrating, they also reduce the risk of trillions of dollars invested in equipment becoming obsolete or depreciating faster than financiers anticipated. ⑹ Not all hyperscale cloud service providers rose; Oracle fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, suggesting that the challenges faced by smaller AI companies may eventually spread to larger companies. (7) Related challenges may include slower sales growth for companies providing the “shovels” of AI transactions, such as fiber optic connectors, servers, and storage devices; the market appeared to be pricing in this outlook on Wednesday. (8) Engineering and construction companies closely linked to AI construction saw particularly sharp declines, including Quanta Services, Emcor, Vertiv, and HVAC contractor Comfort Systems. GE Vernova, which provides power plant turbines for AI computing, was also under pressure. (9) Smaller data center operators also suffered on Wednesday. These companies have borrowed heavily to build data centers and purchase semiconductors; a slowdown in construction means delayed revenue during debt repayment. (10) Democratic victories at the state level and dozens of referendums appear poised to slow data center construction. JPMorgan analysts noted that most construction in 2027 may be unaffected, but 37.5 gigawatts of planned capacity in 2028 could face suspension, and another 15 gigawatts could face “conditions.” (11) These conditions could include requiring data centers to pay grid costs to protect electricity bill customers, eliminating tax breaks, restricting water usage, setting on-site backup power requirements, imposing labor requirements, and prohibiting the use of confidentiality agreements during the approval process. 12. Some economists and investors believe that slowing down the AI capital expenditure boom may be generally beneficial to the economy from a macro perspective, helping to alleviate the risk of overheating in the next 1 to 2 years and potentially extending the AI investment cycle.

18:50:29

[US Tech Giants Adjust Strategies to Gain Data Center Support] ⑴ The artificial intelligence industry is scrambling to repackage a $10 trillion infrastructure plan to appease hostile voters, who overwhelmingly supported limiting data center construction in many parts of the US. ⑵ Companies are not only renaming data centers "computing parks" but also providing tangible funding to communities, including dividends, school and city benefits, environmental concessions, and labor protections. ⑶ Tuesday's election proved voters will not tolerate unbridled growth. While markets and many analysts believe a Democratic victory will slow, but not halt, data center construction across the US, the world's largest companies are undertaking a rebranding to guard against existential threats. ⑷ OpenAI's Chief Global Affairs Officer likened the necessary shift in the AI industry to the situation after the 1996 election, saying a lot can happen in two years, and smart, capable people will listen to voters and react. ⑸ He stated that for communities to accept data centers, it needs to be clearly understood that these projects will be long-term, sustainable, and economically transformative community projects. (6) Voter attitudes after Election Day are no longer in doubt. Restrictive measures in 10 states passed by a margin of 43 to 1, with an average of about 75% supporting the restrictions; the gap is not close. (7) In Texas, the newly elected Democratic governor pledged to maintain the moratorium until the legislature passes comprehensive reforms. Other elected governors in emerging data center states also support similar restrictions. (8) Analysts say that about 60% of planned capacity in the U.S. by 2028 faces the risk of delays. (9) The newly elected Democrats will not stifle data centers. Virginia, entirely governed by Democrats, is the largest data center hub in the U.S., and unions are among the biggest supporters of the construction plan, but many newly elected candidates have similar demands. (10) Tech companies must pay for infrastructure and provide their own electricity to ensure that the increased pressure on the power grid brought about by the boom is not passed on to electricity bill customers. Tax incentives are unsustainable and face repeal. Companies must also demonstrate that they will ensure environmental and labor protections. Voters will no longer tolerate confidentiality agreements or seemingly secretive transactions. (11) Major data center developers such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI had already begun presenting new visions for public approval ahead of Tuesday's "AI earthquake," with many proposals including commitments to cover infrastructure and electricity costs. (12) These concessions may drive up data center costs, but a slowdown in construction could also help absorb the higher costs; jobs are not enough to convince communities, as the positions are temporary, and the practice of giving teachers a $50,000 bonus after the completion of a large Meta data center in Louisiana may be more widely followed.

18:49:07

[Vance Uses Election Defeat to Lay a Footprint for 2028] ⑴ US Vice President Vance stepped out of Trump's sphere of influence on Wednesday, using the Republican Party's crushing defeat in the midterm elections as an opportunity to begin the sensitive task of securing dominance within the MAGA camp. ⑵ Vance published a lengthy post of approximately 600 words on the social media platform X, stating that the Republican Party's loss was due to the war, attributing the historic Republican defeat to Trump's Iran policy. ⑶ Vance's presidential ambitions are closely intertwined with the war he privately opposes and publicly defends, and his path to 2028 requires meticulous political calculation. ⑷ Vance must convince the disappointed voters in the MAGA camp that he understands their sense of betrayal, while remaining a key figure in the government responsible for the Iran war. ⑸ His actions will unfold under the watchful eye of a president who seems in no hurry to leave the stage, a president who does not shy away from restraining those who overstep their bounds within his team. ⑹ A person close to the government said that Vance acted like he was poised to become president that day. ⑺ Vance believes that the Republican Party's loss on Tuesday stemmed from the loss of voters in Trump's 2024 coalition, rather than insufficient voter turnout. (8) He cited polls of voters dissatisfied with Trump, listing four demands: ending the war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, America First, and changing relations with Israel. (9) These are precisely the hottest topics among top podcasters and activists in the MAGA camp, and Vance is aligning himself with these leaders on the issues that fuel MAGA's anger towards Trump. (10) Trump accepted the challenge on Wednesday, acknowledging that the war has hurt the Republican Party, but insisting the cost was worthwhile and that he would make the same choice if given the chance. (11) Regarding Vance's article, Trump said he knew how he felt and thought it was well-written. (12) Vance's statement surprised some in the White House, but insiders said the vice president collaborated with senior government officials on the article and that he was playing a leadership role.

18:47:24

[US October Layoffs Drop to Lowest Level Since 2023] ⑴ US companies announced the lowest number of layoffs in October since 2023, while hiring plans increased as companies began preparing for the holiday shopping season. ⑵ Data from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. shows that US companies announced 43,994 layoffs last month, a decrease of approximately 71% compared to the same period last year. ⑶ Last year, the number of layoffs announced by US companies in October was the highest in more than 20 years. ⑷ Challenger data shows that US employers also indicated plans to hire nearly 445,000 people last month, an increase of approximately 57% year-on-year, marking the highest level for October since at least 2009. ⑸ The increase in hiring plans is entirely driven by staffing needs for the holiday shopping season. ⑹ Amazon plans to hire 300,000 people, accounting for nearly two-thirds of its total seasonal hiring plan; UPS also announced plans to hire 100,000 people. ⑺ The layoff and hiring plan data reflect the current characteristics of the US labor market: fewer layoffs, but relatively limited job opportunities. (8) The market expects the US government's October jobs report, to be released on Friday, to show an increase of 65,000 non-farm payroll jobs and that the unemployment rate remains at 4.2%. (9) Overall, the US labor market is characterized by a combination of low layoffs and seasonal hiring recovery, with job growth remaining moderate.

18:32:51

US Challenger Job Cuts Annual Rate (%) in October

Previous : -19.9 Forecast : -

Published Value -71.3

Previous

18:31:44

US Challenger job cuts month-over-month rate (%) in October

Previous : -18.15 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.64

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