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2025-09-18 Thursday

2025-09-19

19:00:08

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged in September

Previous : 4 Forecast : 7

Neutral

Published Value 7

Previous

19:00:07

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of raising interest rates in September

Previous : 0 Forecast : 0

Neutral

Published Value 0

Previous

19:00:06

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of cutting interest rates in September

Previous : 5 Forecast : 2

Neutral

Published Value 2

Previous

19:00:06

The benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England in September

Previous : 4% Forecast : 4%

Neutral

Published Value 4%

Previous

19:00:03

The benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England in September

Previous : 4% Forecast : 4%

Neutral

Published Value 4%

Previous

18:48:02

[Battle for the Euro's Fate: 1.2000 Triggers a $50 Billion Shockwave] ⑴ The significant amount of options exposure around the key 1.2000 level for EUR/USD is significant, and the market exchange rate can react strongly to movements at this level. ⑵ In April, after Trump's tariff rhetoric sparked market concerns, the EUR/USD exchange rate saw strong upward momentum, and FX options traders significantly increased their exposure to EUR call and USD put options, aiming to capitalize on further gains. ⑶ Even then, 1.2000 became a key target, particularly for exotic option structures like barriers and triggers, highlighting its importance as a strategic inflection point. ⑷ Although many options have expired or moved to higher strike prices, significant residual positions remain around 1.2000, maintaining its significant influence on spot market movements. (5) While it's impossible to track exotic options, institutional data shows that the notional exposure of standard vanilla options with a strike price of 1.2000 expiring before the end of the year is approaching €50 billion, far exceeding positions at other strike prices. (6) While it's impossible to fully understand net positions, it's impossible to accurately predict the exchange rate's reaction at 1.2000, but the exchange rate typically stagnates near option concentrations due to defensive flows. (7) If 1.2000 is breached, short gamma positions could be triggered, forcing traders to chase exchange rate movements, exacerbating volatility and amplifying gains.

18:23:43

Oil and Fats Market Volatility Intensifies, Soybean Oil Leads Palm Oil Decline] (1) Palm oil futures prices fell on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session, primarily due to weaker soybean oil prices in the Dalian and Chicago markets. (2) The benchmark December palm oil contract closed down 41 ringgit, or 0.92%, at 4,434 ringgit per metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. (3) The main soybean oil contract on the Dalian exchange fell 1.64%, while the palm oil contract fell 2%. Meanwhile, soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade also fell 0.73%. (4) A Kuala Lumpur trader stated that the market is currently focused on soybean oil, and its weakness has directly impacted palm oil prices. (5) The market was also impacted by the US biofuel proposal, which disappointed the market, causing Chicago soybean futures to fall for a second consecutive day. (6) A Brazilian court rejected a request from a farmers' group, upholding a trade ban on soybeans grown on some recently deforested land in the Amazon region. (7) As part of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil prices generally track those of competing edible oils. ⑻ Although the Malaysian ringgit depreciated 0.17% against the US dollar, making palm oil cheaper for foreign buyers, the market remained stagnant. ⑼ Institutional data showed that between September 1 and 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports showed mixed growth and decline, with one agency indicating a 2.6% increase and another showing a 0.1% decrease.

18:06:13

The Bank of England faces a difficult decision: the struggle between quantitative tightening and fiscal distress. (1) The Bank of England's independence is being tested, as its continued active sales of government bonds (quantitative tightening) are exacerbating the UK government's debt burden. Although the Bank of England's latest Monetary Policy Report estimates that over £300 billion of quantitative tightening over three years has only increased government borrowing costs by 0.15% to 0.25%, many analysts believe the bank underestimates the actual impact. (2) Statistics show that the yield on UK 30-year government bonds has risen to its highest level since the 1990s this year. Faced with a funding gap of approximately £20 billion at the Treasury, market concerns are growing that the government will implement more tax increases or spending cuts in November, further pushing up long-term borrowing costs. (3) Institutional forecasts indicate that the Bank of England may announce a slowdown in its quantitative tightening program at its meeting on Thursday, reducing its annual balance sheet reduction target from £100 billion per year over the previous two years to £67 billion, while retaining some active bond sales. ⑷ Some institutional strategists point out that even if the target is reduced, the Bank of England will still need to sell approximately £33 billion of government bonds over the next year if it does not cease active bond sales. They suggest that sales should avoid the long end of the curve to avoid impacting the fragile long-term bond market. ⑸ Although the Bank of England may believe that the impact of its bond sales is limited and aimed at reserving room for future crisis response, some external studies suggest that the cost of quantitative tightening to British taxpayers could be as high as £60 billion, more than three times its own estimate. Continued bond sales could trigger a market crisis, forcing the Bank to intervene again, creating a self-defeating cycle. ⑹ Analysts believe that if the Bank of England continues to actively sell bonds, it may be due to concerns about compromising its independence, but such a decision could lead to the Bank of England having to intervene again in the future.

18:00:09

Taiwan's M2 annual rate of money supply in August, China

Previous : 3.42% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.76%

Previous

17:49:39

[Interest Rate Cut Surpasses Expectations! Bank Indonesia Vows to Stimulate Economy] ⑴ Although all 31 economists surveyed had predicted Bank Indonesia would keep interest rates unchanged, the bank unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark rate on Wednesday, bringing it to 4.75%. ⑵ Following the rate decision, the rupiah fell 0.5% against the US dollar, but the Indonesian stock index hit a record high due to a positive growth outlook. ⑶ This rate cut marks the 150th basis point reduction by Bank Indonesia since the start of its easing cycle in September 2024. The bank has also supported the economy through liquidity easing and government bond purchases. ⑷ Following this rate cut, 12 economists predicted further rate cuts from Bank Indonesia, with the median forecast for a 4% rate in 2026. A larger consensus of 21 economists had previously predicted a final rate of 4.50%. ⑸ JPMorgan Chase lowered its forecast for Bank Indonesia's benchmark rate in 2026 to 3.50%, while Barclays expects the rate to fall to 4.25% this year and believes further rate cuts are possible. (6) The Governor of Bank Indonesia stated that commercial bank interest rates need to be lowered "immediately," and that the central bank will continue to seek room for further rate cuts. He emphasized that the central bank will work with the government to support economic growth. (7) In addition, Bank Indonesia implemented an asymmetric rate cut, lowering the deposit facility rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% and the lending facility rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. This is the first time since 2016 that an "asymmetric corridor" has been used to manage money market interest rates. (8) One analyst believes that this move may be related to the government's policy of transferring over $12 billion in funds from the central bank to state-owned banks to increase liquidity in the banking system.

17:47:48

A Hawkish Cut Amidst the Global Interest Rate Cut Wave: (1) The Norwegian Central Bank announced a 25 basis point cut in its policy rate to 4.0%, in line with market expectations. The Norwegian krone rose 0.3% against the euro in response. (2) Although the rate cut was unanimous, the central bank indicated that the pace of future rate cuts would slow. The governor stated that recent data suggests the Norwegian economy still has excess capacity and inflation is likely to remain higher than expected, necessitating the slower rate cuts expected before the summer. (3) The Norwegian Central Bank's latest forecast indicates that it may only cut interest rates once a year over the next three years, potentially lowering the rate to 3.25% by 2028. Some economists predict that, given wage and inflation growth, the central bank may only cut interest rates twice in the next few years, ultimately lowering the rate to 3.5%. (4) Institutional analysis indicates that this rate cut is a "hawkish" one, meaning that while the rate is being cut now, the next one may be a long time away. Some economists predict that the next rate cut may occur in the third quarter of 2026. 5. The central bank is particularly concerned about the unpredictability of international cooperation and trade, believing it creates uncertainty for inflation and growth prospects in Norway and the global economy. 6. A survey by an institution showed that 23 of 30 economists had previously predicted that the Norwegian Central Bank would cut interest rates to 4.0%. 7. The Norwegian Central Bank's rate cut follows the US Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December of last year on Wednesday and hinted at the possibility of further rate cuts. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, kept interest rates unchanged last week.

17:11:36

[Invasive Pest Threatens A$18 Billion Grain Industry] 1. Australia's Department of Agriculture announced that larvae of a beetle called the "sawgrass beetle" have been found in imported diapers sold in supermarkets nationwide, raising concerns that the pest could invade grain storage facilities and disrupt agricultural exports. The Agriculture Minister stated that the beetles, which feed on stored food, arrived in Australia in a shipping container. 2. The beetle poses the greatest threat to Australia's A$18 billion grain industry. If established, it could lead to trading partners rejecting Australian goods, resulting in significant losses. The president of the New South Wales Farmers' Association stated that the impact of the pest would be comparable to an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Australia, and the damage it would cause would be beyond imagination. 3. As of Thursday, Australia had managed to trace nearly 1,500 boxes of affected diapers, but some remain in circulation. The Department of Agriculture has asked consumers who purchased the affected products to seal them and contact the government. The diaper brand in question, "Little One's Ultra Dry Nappy Pants Walker Size 5," is supplied by Belgian manufacturer Ontex and is currently sold exclusively at Woolworths, Australia's largest supermarket chain. ⑷ Woolworths has removed the affected products from shelves and quarantined them. Ontex stated that the source of the larvae is unknown and there is no evidence that they were introduced during the production process. The company's manufacturing and warehousing facilities in Sydney have been temporarily suspended until a full inspection is completed and it is confirmed that production can resume safely. ⑸ The beetle is native to India but has spread to many countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe. Currently, the beetle has not been found in Australia.

17:07:53

Italy's current account for July

Previous : 57.37 Forecast : -

Published Value 86.93

Previous

17:02:36

Unexpected Rate Cut! Norway's Central Bank Shifts Strategy but Expresses Caution, Diverging on Future Path. (1) At its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, the Norwegian Central Bank announced a 25 basis point cut in its key policy rate to 4%. The rate cut surprised the market, as a Wall Street Journal survey showed that most economists expected the central bank to keep rates unchanged. This rate cut follows a June cut from 4.5% to 4.25% and is intended to support economic activity. (2) Despite the rate cut, the Norwegian Central Bank signaled a slower pace of future rate cuts. Governor Aida Walden-Bakke noted that data released since June indicates a slight reduction in economic slack and that inflation may remain elevated for longer than previously forecast. Norway's economic growth has been better than expected this year, unemployment remains low, and inflation remains well above its 2% target. Core inflation slowed to 2.8% in the spring but then rebounded to 3.1% in June, July, and August. ⑶ Buck stated that the work of returning inflation to target is not yet complete, so future policy rate cuts may not be as rapid as envisioned before the summer. The central bank also mentioned in its statement that further policy easing may be needed over the next 12 months to boost economic growth, but the pace of easing will be slower than previously anticipated. Policymakers now expect to cut interest rates annually over the next three years, bringing them to just above 3% by the end of 2028. This slows the pace compared to the previous forecast of around 3% by the end of 2028. ⑷ Despite this, the Norwegian Central Bank still expects inflation to fall close to its 2% target by 2028. This move by the Norwegian Central Bank reflects its cautious approach to balancing supporting economic growth with curbing inflation.

17:01:33

Annual rate of construction output in the eurozone in July

Previous : 1.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.20%

Previous

17:01:32

Eurozone construction industry output monthly rate in July

Previous : -0.76% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

16:58:03

[Massive Debt Auction Stirs Up Another Round! French Government Bond Market Draws Attention] ⑴ The French Ministry of Finance held a government bond auction on Thursday, selling a total of 11.428 billion euros in medium- and long-term bonds. The auction featured a diverse range of bonds, including four tranches maturing in May 2028, September 2028, February 2031, and November 2033. The February 2031 tranche saw the highest sales, reaching 4.428 billion euros, while the November 2033 tranche saw sales of 2.096 billion euros, the September 2028 tranche saw 2.871 billion euros, and the May 2028 tranche saw 2.105 billion euros. ⑵ The bid-to-cover ratios for all bonds in the auction were robust, demonstrating strong market demand for French government bonds. The September 2028 tranche had the highest bid-to-cover ratio, reaching 4.015, followed by the November 2033 tranche at 3.914. The bid-to-cover ratios for bonds maturing in May 2028 and February 2031 were 3.561 and 2.837, respectively. (3) In terms of average yields, the bonds auctioned this time generally had yields higher or similar to those in previous similar auctions. For example, the average yield on bonds maturing in February 2031 was 2.79%, higher than the 2.77% in the August 21st auction. The average yield on bonds maturing in November 2033 was 3.22%, higher than the 3.19% in the April 3rd auction. The average yield on bonds maturing in September 2028 was 2.34%, also slightly higher than the 2.31% in the August 21st auction. These data indicate that, in the current market environment, the French government needs to offer higher returns to attract investors to subscribe to its debt.

16:49:30

Discount rate in Taiwan, China for the third quarter - Unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 2% Forecast : 2%

Neutral

Published Value 2%

Previous

16:39:08

Beijing Clarifies Upper and Lower Limits for Social Security Contribution Bases for 2025 (Note: The Beijing Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, the Beijing Municipal Medical Security Bureau, and the Beijing Municipal Taxation Bureau of the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued a notice on September 18, clarifying that starting in July 2025, the upper limit for the monthly contribution base for participating enterprise employees in the city for basic pension insurance, unemployment insurance, work-related injury insurance, and employee basic medical insurance (including maternity insurance) will be 35,811 yuan, with a lower limit of 7,162 yuan. (Note: The following appears to be unrelated text fragments and should likely be omitted: Beijing clarifies upper and lower limits for social security contribution bases for 2025: ⑴) Individuals enrolled in social insurance through social insurance agencies or subdistrict (township) convenience service centers can choose their own contribution base between the upper and lower limits. If they choose the upper limit, they will pay 7,162.2 yuan for pension insurance and 358.11 yuan for unemployment insurance. If they choose the lower limit, they will pay 1,432.4 yuan for pension insurance and 71.62 yuan for unemployment insurance. If these individuals participate in employee basic medical insurance, their monthly contribution will be 584.92 yuan. (3) The supplementary payment for the difference in contributions due to the adjustment of the contribution base for participating units and employees will be processed and generated uniformly in October 2025, without the need for unit declaration. Units that complete the supplementary payment by the end of December 2025 will not be subject to late payment fees. Individual insured persons who complete the supplementary payment during the collection period from October to December 2025 will be deemed to have paid the difference in full and on time, and their personal benefits record will not be affected.

16:32:43

Significant Achievements in the Development of Scientific and Technological Infrastructure and Platforms During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period: (1) The State Council Information Office held a series of press conferences on the afternoon of September 18th, at which the Ministry of Science and Technology outlined progress in the development of scientific and technological infrastructure and platforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. (2) During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my country continued to advance the development of scientific research infrastructure and platforms, systematically deploying national scientific data centers, national germplasm and experimental material repositories, and national field scientific observation and research stations. This has resulted in a relatively comprehensive system of facilities and platforms, providing strong support for major scientific research tasks and engineering projects. (3) In terms of data coordination and services, the total data volume of the 20 national scientific data centers has exceeded 270PB, a five-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Resources in the 31 existing national repositories have steadily increased, preserving over 5.5 million accessions of animal and plant germplasm resources, over 600,000 strains of microorganisms and bacteria (viruses), and 39 million specimens of various types. These collections of microbial, crop, and livestock germplasm resources rank among the highest in the world. (4) Efforts to open up and share scientific research instruments have been intensified, with 147,000 instruments priced at over 500,000 yuan each now included in the national network management platform, making them publicly accessible.

16:26:53

[Global Market Update: Norwegian Krone Recovers Slightly as US Dollar Strengthens, Oil and Gold Fall] ⑴ After the Norwegian Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%, the krone narrowed its losses against the euro, now trading at 11.6086. The central bank cited divergent views in its decision-making process and expressed caution about further rate cuts. ⑵ Bank Indonesia will monitor the stability of the US dollar against the Indonesian rupiah before further easing. Supported by intervention measures, the exchange rate remained within the 16,000 to 16,500 range, with the US dollar currently up 0.5% against the Indonesian rupiah at 16,500. ⑶ International oil prices declined, with Brent crude down 0.5% to $67.60 per barrel and WTI down 0.6% to $63.66. Despite a 9.3 million barrel inventory draw, distillate inventories increased by 4 million barrels, weighing on the demand outlook. ⑷ The Bank of England is expected to slow its quantitative tightening to an average annual rate of £75 billion, down from the previous target of £100 billion. The market believes that maintaining the original rate would be surprising. (5) The euro retreated from a four-year high, currently trading at 1.1831. The dollar rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled caution, prompting some investors to "sell the facts." (6) Gold prices retreated due to a stronger dollar, with futures down 1.1% to $3,678.30 per ounce. While the monthly gain remained close to 9%, investors interpreted the Fed's guidance as less dovish than expected. (7) UK government bond yields remained stable ahead of the interest rate decision, with the 10-year gilt yield at 4.623%. The market generally expected the benchmark rate to remain unchanged at 4%. (8) Eurozone government bond yields fell slightly, with the German 10-year bond yield at 2.673% and the French 10-year bond yield at 3.477%. (9) The British pound weakened, falling 0.2% against the dollar to 1.3595, while the euro rose slightly against the pound to 0.8672. (10) The US dollar index rose 0.4% to 97.251. The Fed's dot plot shows that interest rates may be cut twice more this year, but Powell stressed that future assessments will be made meeting by meeting, and the market lacks confidence in the extent of the easing.

16:26:32

Taiwan's M2 broad money supply in August, China

Previous : 658224 Forecast : -

Published Value 663224

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 3659.02

14.75

(0.40%)

XAG

 42.308

0.515

(1.23%)

CONC

 63.05

-0.21

(-0.33%)

OILC

 67.27

-0.20

(-0.29%)

USD

 97.317

-0.039

(-0.04%)

EURUSD

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-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

 1.3550

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

USDCNH

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0.0026

(0.04%)
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