Real-Time Financial News | 24/7 Market Updates

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2025-12-18 Thursday

2025-12-19

20:04:15

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Most labor market data indicate that the labor market is not likely to weaken rapidly.

20:04:09

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Inflation data were generally encouraging, but two-way risks remain.

20:04:05

Bank of England interest rate decision: "Based on current evidence, bank interest rates are likely to continue to decline gradually."

20:04:00

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee: "Judging on whether to further ease monetary policy will become more cautious."

20:03:55

Bank of England interest rate decision: The budget is likely to boost GDP growth by about 0.1%-0.2% over the next few years; the impact of fiscal austerity will be assessed in three years.

20:03:51

Bank of England interest rate decision: Inflation is expected to rise temporarily in December 2025, influenced by tobacco tax and airfares.

20:03:48

Bank of England interest rate decision: Inflation is expected to fall to around 3% in the first quarter of 2026 and approach 2% in the second quarter.

20:03:40

Bank of England Governor Bailey changed his voting intention to support an interest rate cut. We still believe interest rates will be gradually lowered. However, how far we can go with each cut becomes more unpredictable.

20:03:37

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: With interest rates nearing neutral levels, room for rate cuts is more limited.

20:03:19

Bank of England interest rate decision: The budget could push inflation up by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2027 and 2028.

20:03:15

Bank of England interest rate decision: The budget may lower the inflation rate by about 0.5 percentage points in April 2026.

20:03:11

Bank of England interest rate decision: Staff predict zero GDP growth in the fourth quarter (November forecast: 0.3% month-on-month growth), with a baseline growth rate of approximately 0.2% month-on-month.

20:02:59

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Key Interest Rates Likely to Continue to Decline "Gradually"

20:02:59

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision: Inflation Expected to Fall Toward Target More Quickly in the Near Term

20:02:41

Bank of England Governor Bailey: But with each rate cut, the extent of our further action becomes increasingly difficult to predict.

20:02:02

Bank of England Governor Bailey shifts his vote to support interest rate cut.

20:01:58

Following the data release, the pound sterling rose 23 points against the dollar from 1.3355 (-0.15%) to 1.3378 (0.03%).

20:01:47

Bank of England interest rate decision: 5 voted to cut rates, 4 voted to keep rates unchanged; inflation is expected to fall to target level more quickly in the near term.

20:00:29

The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations.

20:00:13

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of keeping interest rates unchanged in December

Previous : 5 Forecast : 4

Neutral

Published Value 4

20:00:12

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of cutting interest rates in December

Previous : 4 Forecast : 5

Neutral

Published Value 5

20:00:12

The UK's central bank (MPC) voted in favor of raising interest rates in December

Previous : 0 Forecast : 0

Neutral

Published Value 0

20:00:07

The benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England in December

Previous : 4% Forecast : 3.75%

Neutral

Published Value 3.75%

20:00:05

Mexico's retail sales monthly rate in October

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0.30%

Published Value 0.40%

20:00:05

Annual rate of retail sales in Mexico in October

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : 3%

Published Value 3.40%

19:58:57

Societe Generale: A Bank of England rate cut could boost UK government bonds and the pound. This is because a rate cut is expected to boost real household income, promote GDP growth, and improve fiscal conditions, thereby strengthening the pound.

19:56:44

[Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Make Every Effort to Ensure Safety in the Agricultural Sector and the Ministry System to Firmly Safeguard the Bottom Line of High-Quality Agricultural and Rural Development] The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held an expanded meeting of its Safety Committee, emphasizing the need to make every effort to ensure safety in the agricultural sector and the Ministry system, firmly safeguarding the bottom line of high-quality agricultural and rural development. The meeting stressed the need to be keenly aware of the severity and complexity of the safety situation, further strengthen risk awareness, firmly establish a bottom-line mentality, resolutely overcome complacency and wishful thinking, and with a constant sense of responsibility, go all out to ensure safety at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year. It also emphasized the need to carefully review the relevant requirements of the central government's safety inspection and assessment, strengthen risk assessment for low temperatures, cold waves, and heavy fog during the winter and spring seasons, continuously strengthen industry safety guidance, solidly promote the special rectification of safety production for marine fishing vessels, continuously consolidate the achievements in safety production in the agricultural machinery sector, and actively promote the standardized and intelligent management of confined space operations in agricultural sectors. (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs)

19:54:21

[CSRC: Steadily Expand High-Level Institutional Opening-up and Continuously Enhance the Inclusiveness and Attractiveness of the Capital Market System] Wu Qing attended the inaugural meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and convened an expert symposium on the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Capital Market. Wu Qing stated that the CSRC will thoroughly study and implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, solidly advance the formulation and implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Capital Market, closely adhere to the main work line of preventing risks, strengthening supervision, and promoting high-quality development, continuously deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, steadily expand high-level institutional opening-up, continuously enhance the inclusiveness and attractiveness of the capital market system, and better serve the overall situation of high-quality economic development and China's modernization.

19:53:52

[Wu Qing Attends the Inaugural Meeting of the Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society and Holds an Expert Symposium on the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Capital Market] At the meeting, participants offered forward-looking and constructive opinions and suggestions on how to improve the 15th Five-Year Plan for the capital market. These included further enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the IPO and listing system to attract more high-quality companies in emerging productivity sectors to list; expanding the supply of patient capital, long-term capital, and strategic capital; continuously activating the M&A market and strictly enforcing normalized delisting; promoting the improvement of governance and supervision of artificial intelligence applications in the capital market; and severely cracking down on financial fraud, strengthening investor protection and education, etc. (China Securities Regulatory Commission)

19:52:56

Fed Chair Walter's dovish comments weakened the dollar. Details>

19:52:53

BHP CEO Mike Henry: The copper bull market is likely to continue for the next few years, driven by strong demand growth. Copper demand is projected to grow by 70% from now until 2050, but supply is becoming increasingly difficult to release. New mines are becoming scarcer, and discovered mines tend to be smaller, lower-grade, and located in harsher environments, making rapid development difficult.

19:50:13

According to Yonhap News Agency, former South Korean President Yoon Seok-youl apologized to military commanders and police officers who were on trial for alleged involvement in a rebellion for declaring martial law nationwide in December 2024.

19:47:53

Airbus: Spain has signed four contract orders as part of its national helicopter program.

19:47:51

What does "good position" really mean? The ECB's true cards are about to be revealed. Details>

19:43:00

The Central Bank of Russia announced it will sue all European banks in Russian courts for losses.

19:40:20

Mizuho Bank: Raises target price for Micron Technology (MU.O) to $290 from $270.

19:38:12

Devin Nunes, Chairman and CEO of Trump Media Technologies, and Michl Binderbauer, CEO of TAE, plan to serve as co-CEOs of the merged company.

19:37:22

Trump Media & Technology Group: The deal values each TAE share at $53.89. Upon completion of the transaction, the company will become the holding company of Truth Social, Truth+, Truth Finance (Truth.FI), TAE Energy, TAE Power Solutions, and TAE Life Sciences.

19:36:42

According to Jin Rongcan, Head of Asia Technology Research at Morgan Stanley, physical intelligence is becoming a core component of the broader artificial intelligence (AI) theme. The humanoid robot market is projected to reach $5 trillion by 2050, with 1 billion units deployed, roughly one humanoid robot for every 10 people. The adoption path is not expected to be linear, with a relatively slow adoption rate before 2035, accelerating in the late 2030s.

19:33:47

Trump Media Technologies will merge with TAE Technologies in an all-stock transaction. Trump Media Technologies stated that the transaction is expected to close by mid-2026.

19:31:25

Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia calls on all parties to exercise restraint in order to avoid unpredictable developments in the situation in Venezuela.

19:30:11

[WTI Crude Oil (CONC) 4-Hour Price Analysis] Currently, WTI crude oil prices are trending downwards, falling from 59.51 to 55.93, fluctuating between 55.81 and 56.85 intraday. Resistance is around 56.80 (based on the intraday high), and support is around 55.80 (based on the intraday low). Using time series trend analysis, the price is in a descending channel, with higher highs gradually moving lower. It may continue its downward trend, testing the 55.80 support level; a break below this level would target 55.00.

19:29:59

【AUD/USD 4-Hour Price Analysis】 The current AUD/USD price action is weak and volatile, consolidating within a downward trend. The latest price is 0.66074, fluctuating within the intraday range of 0.65922-0.66120. Resistance is around 0.66120 (intraday high), and support is around 0.65922 (intraday low). Based on time series analysis, the recent price consolidation within the 0.659-0.662 range suggests a possible continuation of this volatile trend or a slight downward move, testing support levels.

19:29:49

[USD/JPY 4-Hour Price Analysis] The USD/JPY price is currently in a short-term upward trend, rebounding from the low of 154.674 on December 17, 2025 to the latest price of 155.829. The intraday high of 155.971 and the low of 155.423 form key levels. Support is around 155.42, and resistance is around 155.97, close to the psychological level of 156.00. Based on time series trend analysis, the recent closing price has been rising continuously, predicting a possible continued upward test of the 156.00 resistance level. However, if it encounters resistance, it may enter a range-bound trading pattern.

19:26:06

[GBP/USD 4-Hour Price Analysis] The GBP/USD price is currently fluctuating, with the latest price at 1.33530, trading between 1.33406 and 1.33786 intraday. Based on historical data, the price recently fell from the high of 1.34379 on December 11th and rebounded from the low of 1.33113 on December 17th, indicating range-bound consolidation. Support is at 1.3340 (intraday low and recent support), and resistance is at 1.3380 (intraday high and previous high). Using simple time series analysis, the price is oscillating between support and resistance, and a slight upward test of the resistance level is possible, but the overall trend remains range-bound.

19:25:02

[Spot Gold (XAU) 4-Hour Price Analysis] The current spot gold price is 4326.44, exhibiting a volatile trend, recently fluctuating between 4300 and 4350. Resistance levels are at 4340-4350 (based on historical highs such as 4353.36 and the intraday high of 4342.95), while support levels are at 4320-4300 (based on historical lows such as 4273.69 and the intraday low of 4320.80). Using time series trend analysis, the price has not broken out of the range, and a continued volatile trend is predicted in the future.

19:24:51

【EUR/USD 4-Hour Price Analysis】 The current EUR/USD price movement is slightly weaker, with the latest price at 1.17241, fluctuating between 1.17169 and 1.17493 during the day. Based on historical data, the recent price drop from the high of 1.18036 has created downward pressure. Resistance is located at 1.1745 (referencing the intraday high and recent high of 1.17493), and support is located at 1.1715 (referencing the intraday low and previous low of 1.17028). Using trend analysis, the price sequence shows a converging range, and it is expected to maintain range-bound trading in the short term, possibly with minor tests of support levels.

19:20:05

Brazil's central bank: The labor market continues to show resilience. Economic activity continues along a slower growth trajectory. The unemployment rate remains low, and real wages are rising. External uncertainties remain. CPI and inflation expectations remain above the 3% target.

19:12:46

[Three International Ships Registered at Yangpu Port, China, on the First Day of Hainan Free Trade Port's Customs Closure] On the morning of December 18, at the Hainan International Ship Registration Administration's administrative hall, the owner's representative of the "Defu 1200" vessel received the ship ownership certificate from Cai Yinghong, Director of the Hainan International Ship Registration Administration. This marks the "Defu 1200" as the first international vessel to register at Yangpu Port, China, after the island-wide customs closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port. On December 18, the Hainan Free Trade Port officially began its island-wide customs closure. Also registering on the same day as the "Defu 1200" were two other large international vessels: the "Huashun You 698" and the "Hongjinshuo." (Xinhua)

19:08:21

The British government has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and Tatarstan oil company.

19:07:04

[Global Grain Market Diverges: UK Barley Planting Plummets, Wheat Futures Rally] ⑴ UK feed wheat futures prices rose on Wednesday, partly supported by a weaker pound. The May 2026 contract closed at £169.00 per tonne, up £0.75 from Tuesday. ⑵ The new crop (November 2026) contract rose £0.65 to settle at £171.90 per tonne. ⑶ The pound weakened against both the dollar and the euro, closing at $1.3375 and €1.1385 respectively. This change occurred after the UK Office for National Statistics reported that November's consumer price inflation rate fell more than expected to 3.2%. ⑷ In contrast, Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (May 2026 contract) both fell 0.4% yesterday, hitting new contract lows, mainly due to ample global supply and continued pressure from the Ukraine-Russia peace talks. (5) Paris rapeseed futures (May 2026 contract) closed at €461.25 per tonne yesterday, down €1.25 on the day, following the decline in Chicago soybean and Winnipeg rapeseed futures. (6) In addition, the USDA reported sales of 198,000 tons of US soybeans to China, and the market continues to focus on China's progress toward achieving its 12 million-ton purchase target by the end of February 2026. (7) Analyst insights indicate that UK barley planting area is expected to fall to a 15-year low, which could become a structural factor supporting domestic grain prices in the future.

19:06:14

The Japanese government announced that Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Minoru Joeyō will attend the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on Friday.

19:04:09

Turkish Central Bank meeting minutes: November inflation declined due to falling food prices. Underlying inflation indicators are expected to continue their downward trend in December. Leading indicators from the previous quarter suggest that demand conditions continue to support the decline in inflation.

19:01:09

[European Grain Production Outlook: Wheat and Barley Production Expected to Decrease, Import Dependence May Increase] ⑴ A consulting firm predicts that EU soft wheat production in 2026/27 may reach 128.3 million tons, a 6.2% decrease from 136.8 million tons in 2025/26. ⑵ The firm notes that the unusually high yields in many countries in 2025 are unlikely to be replicated in 2026, with production expected to be significantly lower than this year, returning to levels closer to the average. ⑶ For barley, production in 2026/27 is projected at 52.1 million tons, an 8.3% decrease from this year, mainly due to lower yields, although the winter barley planting area is estimated to have increased by 300,000 hectares compared to the 2025 harvest season, reaching its highest level since 2009. ⑷ Corn production is expected to increase from 56.6 million tons this year to 58.5 million tons, but will still be below average. ⑸ The firm expects soft wheat exports to increase moderately next year, but barley exports to decline slightly. (6) Given that European maize production is likely to be low again in 2026, maize imports are expected to increase. If there is a general crop failure, the smaller expected planted area in 2026 could lead to record high EU maize imports in 2026/27.

18:52:54

The countdown to the collapse of the "fake rise" in Japanese bonds has begun: Everyone is betting on interest rate hikes, so why are long-term bonds plummeting and the yen hesitant to move? Details>

18:46:43

Russian oil transport company Transneft and KazTransOil, Kazakhstan's state-owned oil transporter, signed an oil transit agreement for 2026.

18:42:06

Hungarian central bank chief Kullali: We need to ensure that the repricing in early 2026 is in line with our CPI forecasts.

18:41:51

Hungarian Central Bank Governor Kullalli: It's too early to talk about the interest rate path.

18:40:41

[Middle East Oil Prices Remain Stable with Slight Declines; Qatar Lowers Official Price; Spot Trading Undercurrents] ⑴ On Thursday, the benchmark spot premium for Middle Eastern crude oil stabilized after rising in the previous trading day, as traders assessed the impact of potential further US sanctions against Russia and the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers on the supply outlook. ⑵ Trade sources said that Qatar Energy has set its official selling price for February crude oil at a premium of 53 cents per barrel over Dubai quotes, down from the 84 cents premium for January shipments. ⑶ Sources indicated that Qatar Energy sold five shipments of crude oil to refiners such as Glencore and Reliance Industries at an average premium of approximately 42 cents per barrel.

18:33:43

[The battle against inflation continues; the Hungarian central bank maintains a hawkish stance, and the path to interest rate cuts remains fraught with difficulties] ⑴ The Deputy Governor of the Hungarian Central Bank stated that the central bank is committed to achieving its inflation target and that maintaining a tight monetary policy stance remains necessary. ⑵ He acknowledged that recent economic data has shown significant improvement, and the central bank cannot ignore this positive change. ⑶ Specifically, he pointed out that imported inflation has shown signs of improvement, while energy prices have declined, and deflationary effects have emerged in the durable goods sector. ⑷ This statement implies that although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, the Hungarian central bank remains vigilant about the price outlook, and the possibility of a shift to an easing policy in the short term is low. The normalization of monetary policy will be gradual and cautious.

18:32:54

[Liquidity Tsunami: ECB Deposits Surge, Banking System Overwhelmed by Excess Liquidity] ⑴ Daily liquidity data released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday showed that financial institutions borrowed only €5 million through their overnight lending facility. ⑵ Meanwhile, the amount deposited in the ECB's overnight deposit facility reached a staggering €247,908.9 billion, a further increase from the previous day's €246,524 billion. ⑶ In addition, financial institutions held €17,577.3 billion in their current accounts at the central bank. ⑷ The combined massive holdings in the overnight deposit facility and current accounts far exceed the negligible demand for overnight loans, clearly reflecting that the Eurozone banking system is being overwhelmed by excess liquidity. ⑸ This structural liquidity glut continues to depress short-term market interest rates, highlighting the long-term challenges the ECB faces in withdrawing excess liquidity from the financial system.

18:31:49

Behind the rebound in palm oil prices: Is the price spread repair a "springboard" or a "ceiling"? Details>

18:26:26

The European Council imposes sanctions on 41 ships of Russia's "shadow fleet".

18:25:55

Global WBMS market Supply and Demand in October - Lead

Previous : 113.31 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.67

18:25:46

Global WBMS market Supply and Demand in October - Nickel

Previous : 1.71 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.91

18:25:37

Global WBMS market Supply and Demand in October - Zinc

Previous : -3.57 Forecast : -

Published Value -2.67

18:25:04

Global WBMS Market Supply and Demand in October - Tin

Previous : 0.49 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.35

18:24:52

Global WBMS market Supply and Demand in October - Primary Aluminum

Previous : -19.21 Forecast : -

Published Value -10.87

18:24:41

Global WBMS market Supply and Demand in October - Copper

Previous : -8.13 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.14

18:06:21

[Oil Price Winter Warning: Institutions Predict a Drop to $60, US Shale Oil Production Faces Shrinkage] ⑴ An institutional analysis indicates that if the average WTI crude oil price in 2026 reaches its predicted $57 per barrel, US shale oil production may decline by 70,000 barrels per day year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 1%. ⑵ The institution maintains a bearish view on oil prices in 2026, predicting that Brent crude oil will trade below $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, with an annual average price of approximately $60 per barrel, significantly lower than this year's average of nearly $69. ⑶ The report further warns that multiple downside risks may work together to push crude oil prices and US shale oil production to even lower levels. ⑷ This forecast implies that in a relatively depressed oil price environment, capital expenditure and the willingness of US shale oil producers to increase production will be significantly suppressed, potentially altering the marginal trajectory of the global crude oil supply pattern.

18:04:54

[The standoff between bulls and bears intensifies, massive bets are poised for a volatile start to 2026 forex market] ⑴ Traders' sharply contrasting forex positions held for most of 2025 remain open as year draws to a close, significantly increasing the likelihood of a sharp short-term surge in market volatility. ⑵ While both dollar bulls and bears could theoretically profit, the probability is low; a loss for one side is more likely, triggering a rapid price movement in favor of the other. ⑶ The current relative calm in the market sustains this rare situation, but if 2026 starts with a trading frenzy as in previous years, these opposing positions could lead to a sharp amplification of volatility. ⑷ Traders are betting $22 billion against the dollar against the euro, yen, Mexican peso, and Brazilian real, with bullish bets on emerging market currencies likely related to the seemingly lucrative carry trades that have been prevalent this year. (5) Long positions in the Japanese yen were established during its sustained decline, with the USD/JPY pair rising from 142 in April to around 158 in November, but these long positions were still held. (6) Long positions in the euro were the largest of all forex bets, having been reduced from $18 billion to $11 billion before increasing to $16 billion by the end of November, and have already yielded substantial profits this year. (7) Meanwhile, traders also bet $31 billion on the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, and British pound, but most of these positions are currently performing poorly. (8) For example, a $10 billion short position in the Canadian dollar (one of the largest long US dollar bets) deteriorated after the USD/CAD pair fell from 1.4131 on November 21 to 1.3731 on Tuesday, but traders added to their positions during the decline. (9) When the Australian dollar rose from 0.6422 to 0.6686 against the US dollar between November 21 and December 10, its net short position increased from $3.7 billion to $5.5 billion. Traders increased their short positions against the trend during a short squeeze, which can be described as extreme. (10) Short bets on the British pound have ballooned from just $400 million to over $6 billion, while the pound rose from around 1.30 to above 1.34 against the US dollar during the same period. (11) Before the holidays, although traders were in many precarious positions, they seemed to still prefer to hold or even increase their positions, which sowed the seeds for sharp volatility in the foreign exchange market in early 2026.

18:03:23

Bank of America: If WTI crude oil reaches an average of $57 per barrel in 2026, US shale oil production could decrease by 70,000 barrels per day, or 1% annually.

18:02:51

[Trade Undercurrents: Iranian Company Issues Procurement Tender, New Trends in Asian Agricultural Trade] ⑴ Traders indicate that Iran's Jahad Sabz company has issued a tender to purchase 10,000 metric tons of rice from Pakistan. ⑵ The tender documents show that the company is seeking to purchase Type 1121 white Basmati rice. ⑶ The deadline for submitting price quotations for this tender is December 30th. ⑷ Such international trade tenders for specific commodities reflect the continued flow of agricultural supply chains between regions, demonstrating that basic commodity demand and trade activities continue even against a macro-geopolitical backdrop.

18:01:40

Annual rate of construction output in the eurozone in October

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.50%

18:01:36

Eurozone construction output monthly rate in October

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

18:00:32

South Korean Finance Minister: Once policy measures are implemented, the foreign exchange market is expected to stabilize. There are no plans to use the national pension fund to stabilize the won's exchange rate.

17:58:05

French President Macron: I believe we can find a solution to the financing problem in Ukraine because Europeans share a common will.

17:55:44

What's more frightening than interest rate cuts: the market might suddenly feel that the next cut will be even faster... Details>

17:53:06

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1910.00/oz mark, last trading at $1909.95/oz, up 0.51% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1947.7/oz, up 0.50% on the day.

17:49:39

The US midterm elections may bring a trial by public opinion, leaving the Republican Party with only one year to save itself. Details>

17:47:33

French President Macron: Regarding the Mercosur agreement, we are not yet ready in terms of reciprocity and control. Currently, we cannot agree on the trade figures for Mercosur, and negotiations are not yet over.

17:47:26

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1920.00/oz mark, last trading at $1919.90/oz, up 1.04% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1952.6/oz, up 0.75% on the day.

17:43:56

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1930.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1929.65/ounce, up 1.55% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1962.5/ounce, up 1.26% on the day.

17:43:19

[Stabilizing Producer-Side Inflation, South Africa's PPI Remains Low, Giving Central Bank Policy Room] ⑴ Statistics South Africa's Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.9% year-on-year in November, the same as October's increase and slightly higher than the market consensus of 2.8%. ⑵ On a month-on-month basis, the PPI in November was 0.0%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating extremely mild price pressures on the producer side. ⑶ This data suggests that South Africa's producer inflation level has stabilized in a relatively low range, with no signs of accelerating upwards. ⑷ For the South African Reserve Bank, stable producer-side inflation provides a positive signal for assessing the overall price outlook, potentially offering more room for maneuver in maintaining its current policy stance between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation.

17:40:26

[Poland's Corporate Wages Rise 7.1% in November, Accelerating Recovery] ⑴ Polish corporate wages rose 7.1% year-on-year to 9,078.16 Polish złoty in November 2025, accelerating from the more than four-year low of 6.6% in the previous month and exceeding market expectations of a 6.2% increase. ⑵ After monthly adjustments, average nominal wages increased by 2.4%, mainly driven by higher additional payments, including bonuses, awards, and seasonal payments such as annual, Christmas, and miners' holidays. ⑶ Year-to-date, corporate wages have cumulatively increased by 7.9%.

17:40:05

[The Norwegian Central Bank Keeps Interest Rates at 4%, No Rush to Cut Rates] ⑴ The Norwegian Central Bank (NZB) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4% for the second consecutive year in December 2025, in line with market expectations, and stated that it was in no hurry to cut rates. ⑵ The bank emphasized that given inflation remains above target and underlying inflation has been near 3% for some time, restrictive monetary policy remains necessary. ⑶ Policymakers also acknowledged that its tightening cycle in recent years has helped cool the Norwegian economy and curb inflation. ⑷ Despite continued uncertainty about the outlook, the bank reiterated that if economic developments broadly meet expectations, the policy rate could be further reduced in the coming year. ⑸ Interest rate forecasts are largely unchanged from the September report, with one to two rate cuts expected in 2026, and the policy rate gradually falling to slightly above 3% by the end of 2028.

17:39:33

[Poland's Industrial Output Falls 1.1% Year-on-Year in November, Hitting a Nine-Month Low] ⑴ Poland's industrial output fell 1.1% year-on-year in November, below market expectations of a 2.7% increase and reversing the revised 3.3% increase in the previous month. ⑵ This is the first contraction in industrial activity since June and the lowest reading since February, due to slower growth in water supply, wastewater treatment, and waste management and remediation services. ⑶ Meanwhile, output from manufacturing and the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning all declined. ⑷ In contrast, mining and quarrying activity increased. ⑸ On a monthly adjusted basis, industrial output plummeted 9.3% in November, a significant drop from the revised 5.5% increase in the previous month.

17:39:15

[Poland's Corporate Employment Decreased by 0.8% Year-on-Year in November, Slightly Better Than Expected] ⑴ Polish corporate employment fell by 0.8% year-on-year in November, bringing total employment to 6.41 million, slightly better than the market expectation of a 0.9% decline, consistent with the declines of the previous three months. ⑵ This marks the 26th consecutive month of decline in corporate employment, reflecting continued weakness in the sector. ⑶ On a monthly adjusted basis, employment increased by 0.1% month-on-month, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in the previous month. ⑷ Meanwhile, average monthly nominal gross income increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 9,078 Polish złoty.

17:37:20

[Massive Bond Issuance Imminent: Germany's 2026 Financing Blueprint, a New "Ballast" for the European Bond Market] ⑴ The German Federal Finance Agency announced on Thursday that the German government plans to issue approximately €512 billion in federal securities in 2026. ⑵ According to the plan, Europe's largest economy will raise €318 billion through auctions in the capital markets and €176 billion in the money market. ⑶ In addition, Germany plans to issue four syndicated bonds and €16 billion to €19 billion in green federal securities. ⑷ More detailed confirmation of the issuance plan for the second quarter of 2026 will be released next March. ⑸ This massive financing plan will provide a significant supply of benchmark assets to the European bond market, potentially putting upward pressure on the yield curve in core Eurozone countries and influencing the pace of the European Central Bank's asset purchase program.

17:33:35

[Inflation Alarms Remain, Fed Internal Divisions, Hidden Reefs and Storms on the Road to Rate Cuts] ⑴ Although the inflation rate has fallen from its highs, it remains consistently above the Fed's 2% target. Policymakers hope to see it decline further, but concerns about the job market are influencing their policy trade-offs. ⑵ Fed Chairman Powell stated that the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric on inflation is expected to be a relatively short-lived, one-off price level change, but the Fed's responsibility is to prevent it from developing into a persistent inflation problem. ⑶ New York Fed President Williams pointed out that data shows trade policy has pushed up inflation this year, but its impact has been more moderate and persistent than he initially anticipated. ⑷ Fed Governor Waller believes that inflation will not accelerate again and stated that there are no signs that inflation will surge again in 2026. ⑸ However, some officials are more cautious. Kansas City Fed President Schmid emphasized that he prefers to keep monetary policy moderately restrictive given the continued significant inflationary pressures. ⑹ Atlanta Fed President Bostic also cautioned that it cannot be concluded that weakness in certain areas of the economy will necessarily translate into a significant reduction in inflationary pressures. (7) These remarks highlight the subtle differences within the Federal Reserve in assessing inflation risks and policy paths. Future interest rate decisions will be highly data-dependent, and any signs of recurring inflation could quickly reverse market expectations of easing.

17:33:23

[Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Boost Yen: Intervention Bottom Line and Depreciation Pressure – How to Resolve the Dilemma?] ⑴ Analysts at JPMorgan Private Bank stated that the Bank of Japan's belated interest rate hike is unlikely to trigger a significant appreciation of the yen. ⑵ She pointed out that the market has fully priced in the rate hike, and the Bank of Japan may hint at a longer interval between the next action, thus limiting the yen's upside potential. ⑶ Conversely, if the Bank of Japan unexpectedly keeps interest rates unchanged, it could lead to a surge in the USD/JPY exchange rate, potentially forcing Japanese authorities to intervene to stabilize the exchange rate. ⑷ The institution predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again by 2026, bringing the policy rate to 1%, at which point inflation should gradually stabilize around the 2% target. ⑸ However, analysts emphasize that achieving this inflation target depends on preventing excessive yen depreciation, as currency depreciation directly impacts domestic prices. ⑹ Their basic forecast scenario is that the USD/JPY exchange rate will fluctuate within a high range of around 150 yen, and if the authorities continue to defend the exchange rate, the market may respect the "bottom line" of 160-162 yen. (7) However, in the long run, the negative interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, as well as Japan's fiscal risk premium, are expected to continue to suppress the appreciation potential of the yen.

17:30:10

South Africa's PPI monthly rate for November

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -0.10%

Published Value 0%

17:30:10

South Africa's PPI annual rate in November

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : 2.80%

Published Value 2.90%

17:24:13

[Interest Rate Cut Cycle Begins: Bank of England Decision, Market Bets on More Than One Easing Move] ⑴ According to institutional analysts, the Bank of England is likely to announce an interest rate cut in its decision on Thursday (20:00 Beijing time), and may cut rates four more times in 2026. ⑵ Analysts point out that recent weak inflation, labor market, and GDP data in the UK all indicate a weak economy, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the coming months. ⑶ Specific forecasts show that the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to cut rates four more times next year, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to 2.75%, a level it assesses as broadly neutral. ⑷ However, current pricing in the money market is relatively conservative, with data showing that the market only expects one rate cut on Thursday and another in 2026. ⑸ This divergence between the central bank's forward guidance and market pricing means that any unexpectedly dovish comments or downward revisions to economic forecasts could trigger sharp fluctuations in the pound and UK government bond yields.

17:18:56

[Gulf Stock Markets Mixed Amid Oil Prices and Interest Rates, Awaiting US Inflation Storm] ⑴ Gulf stock markets diverged in early trading on Thursday. Oil prices rose slightly on news of potential new US sanctions on Russian oil, but market attention was focused on upcoming key US inflation data. ⑵ The Abu Dhabi benchmark index rose 0.3%, primarily driven by a 0.9% increase in ADNOC Gas shares and a 3.3% surge in ESG Emirates Stallions Group shares after announcing the launch of a 1.2 billion dirham waterfront residential project. ⑶ The Qatar benchmark index fell 0.2%, with Industries Qatar shares dropping 2% and Qatar National Bank, the region's largest bank, declining 1.3%, amid reports that Qatar Energy had lowered its crude oil premium. ⑷ The Dubai benchmark index dipped slightly by 0.1%, dragged down by a 9.6% plunge in Gulf Shipping Holdings shares, but Tecom Group shares rose 1.5% after announcing the launch of a 615 million dirham innovation center. (5) Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index was largely unchanged, with ACWA Power shares down 1%, while Saudi Arabia's mining company shares rose 0.9% after receiving approval from the Ministry of Energy for feed allocation to its phosphate project. (6) Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the central bank may still cut interest rates as the labor market cools, and vowed to defend the Fed's independence. Meanwhile, investors awaited the US November CPI report later Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday. (7) Because most currencies in the region are pegged to the US dollar, Gulf markets are extremely sensitive to changes in expectations regarding US monetary policy; therefore, upcoming inflation data will be a key catalyst determining short-term capital flows.

17:17:52

The CPI data will be released tonight; could the data itself be inaccurate? What will the market do? Details>

17:14:42

[Spot Gold (XAU) 15-Minute Price Analysis] Spot gold prices are currently trending downwards, with the latest price at 4325.52, close to the intraday low of 4322.19. Support is in the 4322-4325 area, and resistance is in the 4330-4335 area. Based on the recent downward trend in the 15-minute data (e.g., the continuous decline from 16:15 to 17:15), it is predicted that in the short term, prices may continue to test support or remain range-bound. If support is broken, further declines are likely.

17:14:31

[EUR/USD 15-Minute Price Analysis] The EUR/USD price is currently in a downtrend, with the latest price at 1.17273, close to the intraday low of 1.17273. Resistance is around 1.1735 (based on the high before 16:00), and support is at 1.17270 (the current low). Based on time series trend analysis, the price has continued to decline from the high of 1.17493, and may continue to fall to test the 1.17250 support level.

17:14:17

[GBP/USD 15-Minute Price Analysis] The GBP/USD price is currently trending downwards, with the latest quote at 1.33526, close to the intraday low of 1.33517. Resistance is around 1.33650 (based on recent highs such as 1.33680 at 17:00), and support is at 1.33517 (the intraday low). Based on time series trend analysis, the price has continued to decline from the intraday high of 1.33786, and further declines or consolidation to test support levels are predicted.

17:13:33

[Global Interest Rate Map: The "Value Gap" Between the US Dollar and Non-US Assets] ⑴ Currently, the yields of major global government bonds show significant divergence. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.138%, providing a core anchor for global interest rate levels. ⑵ Using the 10-year yield as a benchmark, Australian government bond yields are the highest at 4.752%, with a spread of +61.4 basis points against the US, while Japanese government bond yields are only 1.966%, with a spread of -217.2 basis points against the US, creating a stark contrast. ⑶ Among core European countries, Germany's 10-year yield is 2.851%, with a spread of -128.7 basis points against the US. Yields in major Eurozone countries such as France and Italy are concentrated in the 3.3%-3.6% range. ⑷ In terms of short-term interest rates, the US 2-year yield is 3.473%, significantly higher than Germany's 2.142%, with a spread of 133.1 basis points, indicating that market expectations for the short-term monetary policy paths of the two regions are quite different. (5) From Germany's perspective, its 2-year interest rate is lower than that of most developed countries, only slightly higher than that of Japan, while the interest rate differentials with Australia, the UK, and the US all exceed 130 basis points. (6) This interest rate map clearly outlines the differences in the cost and attractiveness of global capital, and the general advantage of dollar assets in terms of yield continues to influence the allocation direction of international funds and exchange rate fluctuations.

8

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4318.34	-14.27 (-0.33%)
XAG	65.082	-0.380 (-0.58%)
CONC	55.89	-0.11 (-0.20%)
OILC	59.70	-0.02 (-0.04%)
USD	98.523	0.084 (0.08%)
EURUSD	1.1719	-0.0003 (-0.03%)
GBPUSD	1.3376	-0.0003 (-0.02%)
USDCNH	7.0370	0.0058 (0.08%)

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