Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

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New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-11-05 Thursday

2026-11-06

21:30:00

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 31 (in thousands).

Previous : 19.68 Forecast : -

Published Value 19.48

Previous

21:30:00

U.S. continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 24 (in thousands)

Previous : 170.10 Forecast : 171

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 171.80

Previous

21:30:00

US nonfarm productivity rate (preliminary value) for the third quarter

Previous : 1.40% Forecast : 2.80%

US Dollar
Euro

Published Value 3.60%

Previous

21:30:00

US third-quarter unit labor cost preliminary value

Previous : 1.20% Forecast : 0.60%

Published Value -0.70%

Previous

21:29:41

[US Treasury Outlook: Election Shift Unlikely to Change Cycle, AI Bubble and Oil Prices Present Double Challenges] ⑴ Following the Democratic Party's major victory in the election, oil prices fell by nearly 9%, leading to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year yield fell by 6 basis points and again below 4.90%, suggesting the market believes a tougher Congress may prompt Trump to tone down his tariff rhetoric. ⑵ This optimism may be untenable. Trump has largely bypassed Congress in the past two years, and Tehran and its allies may be encouraged by the election results, making a renewed escalation of the situation more likely than less probable. ⑶ Oil prices appear to have found a technical bottom around $87, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge, reinforcing the $87-$100 range. If Friday's key non-farm payroll and wage data show an unexpected upward trend, the 10-year yield could quickly rebound to around 5%. ⑷ Some argue that the current situation is more like the twilight of a cycle than a new dawn, with the aging business cycle and excessive expansion of the financial cycle overlapping. The artificial intelligence investment bubble amplifies this distortion, and the US has not experienced a downturn since the financial crisis, except for the pandemic recession. (5) The estimated $10 trillion investment in AI infrastructure by 2032 far exceeds previous technological revolutions. Hyperscale cloud vendors are shifting from positive to negative free cash flow, while financing costs remain high and borrowing demand is surging. (6) Reportedly, the cost of debt default insurance for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Broadcom has reached record highs. CCC-rated pressure is spreading to single-B-rated debt, and the private credit default rate has risen to 6.3%. The US AI boom is increasingly reliant on debt financing, and the risks have already spread to pension funds, annuities, and banks. (7) A Democratic landslide victory may accelerate the retreat of AI deals. Texas, Georgia, and Ohio account for more than 40% of planned data center capacity, and newly elected Democratic governors may tighten scrutiny on permits, environmental regulations, and electricity pricing. (8) Congressional Democrats may also push for AI safety barriers, expand legal liability, and restrict data center expansion. OpenAI's latest commitment to community consultation and construction transparency shows that the industry has recognized the shift in the political winds. (9) Wall Street's narrative that the deadlock is beneficial and that growth will spread beyond artificial intelligence ignores the possibility of investigations, impeachment, government shutdowns, and debt ceiling negotiations. Trump's executive and veto powers remain significant obstacles to substantive policy changes. (10) Strategically, the 10-year yield is likely to trade between 5.05% and 4.80%, with a tactical selling point around 4.81% and a strategic buying point above 5%. Intraday focus should be on the 4.90% to 4.83% range. (11) Thursday's data includes the Challenger layoffs report, weekly initial jobless claims, and preliminary Q3 productivity and cost estimates. Several Fed officials will speak, and the Treasury will announce short-term debt issuance arrangements and conduct repurchase operations.

21:17:59

Leading Indicators of Global Industrial Production Cycle Turning Point in October

Previous : 100.85 Forecast : -

Published Value 100.69

Previous

21:06:55

[US Stock Futures Diverge, Semiconductor Sector Under Pressure, but Rotation Remains Limited to Technology] ⑴ US stock index futures diverged on Thursday, with investors withdrawing funds from semiconductor stocks for the second consecutive trading day. The market is no longer focused on the initial easing rebound after the midterm elections, but rather on assessing the potential impact of a Democratic-controlled Congress on the market. ⑵ Chip manufacturers and memory chip stocks continued to be under pressure due to concerns that a full Democratic control of Congress could lead to stricter regulations on US data centers, thereby dragging down semiconductor demand. ⑶ In addition, disappointing market reactions after Arm and Qualcomm released their earnings reports exacerbated the selling pressure. ⑷ However, traders cautioned against interpreting the overall market trend as a fundamental shift in investor preferences. ⑸ JPMorgan's equity derivatives team believes that this sector rotation is more driven by market positioning adjustments than a genuine fundamental change. ⑹ Christina Jones of JPMorgan stated in a report that they have not yet seen clients massively shifting to long positions in other sectors or chasing previously underperforming stocks; the real rotation is limited to the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors. (7) Jones also pointed out that investors clearly prefer to hold high-quality large-cap stocks, especially companies with clear financing channels and computing resources, such as some hyperscale technology companies.

21:00:00

Brazil's October seasonally adjusted SPGI composite PMI

Previous : 47.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 44.40

Previous

21:00:00

Brazil's seasonally adjusted SPGI services PMI for October

Previous : 49.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 44.50

Previous

20:56:29

[Eurozone bond yields fell, oil prices retreated and easing geopolitical expectations boosted the bond market] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields declined on Thursday, while oil prices remained near two-month lows, as investors bet on a reduced likelihood of a US-Israel war against Iran following a Democratic landslide victory in the midterm elections. ⑵ The yield on the German 10-year bond, the eurozone benchmark, fell 1.2 basis points to 3.2747%. ⑶ Brent crude oil fell nearly 20% this week, last trading at $96.81 a barrel, rising on the day but still near a two-month low. ⑷ Investors believe that the likelihood of US President Trump escalating the war against Iran has decreased, given the pressure from a Democratic-controlled Congress and high energy prices related to the Middle East conflict. Trump also acknowledged on Wednesday that the conflict was responsible for the Republicans' midterm election losses. ⑸ Reduced post-election political uncertainty also supported risk assets, with French and Italian bonds leading the gains. (6) The yield on French 10-year government bonds touched a near one-month low earlier in the session, and was last down 7.3 basis points to 4.7485%, narrowing the Franco-German spread to 146 basis points. This was after reaching 177.7 basis points at the end of October, the highest since the 2011 Eurozone debt crisis. (7) French bonds were also supported by strong bond auctions, unaffected by protests and strikes. Last month's turmoil had put pressure on French assets, and concerns about its fiscal situation ahead of the 2027 presidential election were already weighing on the market. Some institutional strategists said that pre-election uncertainty could widen the spread again. (8) The yield on Italian 10-year government bonds was last down 2.8 basis points to 4.3358%. (9) Short-term yields, which are more sensitive to interest rate expectations, were largely stable, while the yield on German 2-year government bonds was little changed at 3.0285%. (10) Data released on Wednesday showed that eurozone inflation accelerated to 4% in October from 3.8% in September. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised interest rates twice this year to curb inflation, and the money market is currently pricing in a 63% probability of another rate hike in December, slightly lower than the previous day. (11) ECB policymakers stated that a December rate hike is on the table, but the decision will depend on subsequent economic and inflation data. Some institutional strategists said that falling oil prices and improved market sentiment after the US midterm elections have eased pressure on the ECB, as the market believes it is more likely to avoid a meaningful second round of inflation. (12) Elsewhere, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time this year as expected.

20:48:09

[Policy and Market Implications Following the Midterm Elections] ⑴ Vice President Vance attributed the Republican Party's midterm election loss to the Iran war in a social media post. Brent crude oil futures for the near month fell nearly 7% in the following hour, while the decline in oil prices helped the S&P 500 close 1.6% higher that day. ⑵ Vance's statement may indicate the end of the Iran war. The midterm elections demonstrate a power transition within the government, with the most obvious successor already identified. Even if there are short-term bombing operations, they may only be symbolic, a way to conclude the day after a victory declaration. ⑶ Democratic socialists see themselves as big winners in the midterm elections, which will pull the Democratic Party to the left. Increased political polarization will make any compromises to control fiscal disorder more difficult. The US is firmly moving towards yield curve control. ⑷ Immigration enforcement needs change, but the fundamental challenge lies in whether an administration can retroactively reverse its policy if it effectively opens the borders. This may be the biggest single policy challenge for the US and Europe. (5) Trump's major setbacks have altered the Fed's dynamics. Many who had become hawkish after Walsh took over as chairman have now waned their hawkish stance due to a decreased interest in "confronting Trump," and the currently priced-in 2027 rate hike may not materialize. (6) Brent crude oil's fair value is approximately $90 per barrel, indicating further downside potential. This week's sharp drop serves as a reminder that previous high prices were entirely risk premiums, which can be compressed instantly. (7) The dollar's rise driven by war and soaring oil prices is only a temporary phenomenon. The current equilibrium is still a weakening dollar, which has remained largely flat against emerging market currencies this year but has significantly appreciated against other G10 currencies, leaving considerable downside potential. (8) The decline in oil prices has provided breathing room for the French debt market, where previous sell-offs were linked to soaring oil prices. (9) Vance's statement suggests that "perpetual war" is no longer an option, and the medium-term trajectory of oil prices is trending downwards. This is beneficial for gold and other precious metals, which had previously faced pressure during oil price rallies.

20:41:18

[Highlights for Thursday's Second Half: Fed Officials' Speeches and After-Hours Earnings Reports] ⑴ At 20:50 Beijing time, Cleveland Fed President Hammark speaks; at 21:10, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. ⑵ At 21:20 Beijing time, the New York Fed conducts Treasury bill purchases; at 22:30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases natural gas storage data, with the previous figure showing an increase of 80 billion cubic feet. ⑶ At 23:00 Beijing time, the Treasury Department announces the Treasury bill auction schedule; at 23:30, 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills are auctioned; at 2:00 AM the following day, the Treasury Department conducts repurchase operations. ⑷ At 4:30 AM the following day, the Federal Reserve releases its weekly balance sheet report. ⑸ After the US stock market closes, several technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer companies release earnings reports, covering sectors such as cloud security, enterprise software, optical networks, quantum computing, voice AI, consumer credit, and rare earth supply chains. ⑹ At 7:00 AM the following morning, Dallas Fed President Logan speaks on artificial intelligence and the future of the workforce. (7) Throughout the day, pay close attention to the trend of US Treasury yields, post-election market reaction, AI stock performance, oil prices, and geopolitical news. (8) The October non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 22:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak at 0:15 the following morning, Baker Hughes drilling rig count will be released at 1:00, and consumer credit data will be released at 3:00.

20:22:34

[Soft Commodities Show Divergent Trends, Coffee Rebounds While Cocoa Weakens] ⑴ Robusta coffee futures rose 1.6% to $3,279 per tonne on Thursday, gradually recovering from the two-and-a-half-year low of $3,140 reached last week. Market focus was on the harvest progress in Vietnam, the world's leading producer. ⑵ A trader in Vietnam's Central Highlands said that the harvest is currently underway and will peak later this month, with production expected to be acceptable and comparable to last year's levels. ⑶ Uganda's Agriculture Minister said on Thursday that the country's coffee exports fell 13% year-on-year in October due to poor harvests in major coffee-growing regions. ⑷ Arabica coffee rose 0.55% to $2.8130 per pound. Soft commodities trader Sucafina predicted in a report on Wednesday that coffee production in Central America and Mexico will decline by 9.3% to less than 18 million bags (60 kg per bag) in 2026-2027. (5) New York cocoa fell 3.7% to $5,252 per tonne, hitting a one-month low of $5,245 during the session. Traders cited weak demand and relatively high exchange inventories as weighing on the market. Exchange inventories stood at 40,300 tons as of November 4, up from 22,290 tons in the same period last year. (6) London cocoa fell 3.2% to £4,058 per tonne, also hitting a one-month low of £4,056 during the session. (7) Raw sugar fell 0.5% to 18.37 cents per pound. Traders cited rising sugar production prospects in Brazil's south-central region for the 2027-2028 season as a limiting factor, while white sugar rose 0.2% to $498.40 per tonne.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4045.37

-43.43

(-1.06%)

XAG

 51.481

-0.304

(-0.59%)

CONC

 92.19

1.67

(1.84%)

OILC

 100.67

1.53

(1.54%)

USD

 101.750

0.157

(0.15%)

EURUSD

 1.1198

-0.0020

(-0.18%)

GBPUSD

 1.3432

-0.0016

(-0.12%)

USDCNH

 6.6659

0.0013

(0.02%)
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