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2025-09-18 Thursday

2025-09-19

20:30:08

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total beef -USDA weekly

Previous : 1.21 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.58

Previous

20:30:08

U.S. net export sales for the week ended September 11 - total pork -USDA weekly

Previous : 1.73 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.20

Previous

20:30:07

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total wheat for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 30.54 Forecast : -

Published Value 38.75

Previous

20:30:07

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - cotton for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 12.96 Forecast : -

Published Value 18.61

Previous

20:30:07

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total soybean meal for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 35.75 Forecast : -

Published Value 18.25

Previous

20:30:06

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 53.99 Forecast : -

Published Value 123.16

Previous

20:30:06

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybeans for the current year -USDA Weekly

Previous : 54.11 Forecast : -

Published Value 92.30

Previous

20:30:05

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - wheat for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 30.54 Forecast : -

Published Value 37.75

Previous

20:30:05

U.S. New wheat export sales for the week ending September 11 -USDA Weekly

Previous : 32.72 Forecast : -

Published Value 44.42

Previous

20:28:52

[Caixin Futures: Pre-holiday Market Outlook for Ferrous Commodities] (1) Steel: Demand for building materials is rebounding, but demand for flat products is weakening. Total inventories continue to increase, and overall supply and demand dynamics remain weak. However, driven by improving macroeconomic expectations and pre-holiday inventory restocking, steel prices face strong short-term support, and the market may fluctuate and consolidate. The reference range for the Rebar 01 contract is 3125-3175. From a financial perspective, the top 20 positions in the Rebar 01 contract saw a surge in long and short positions, with long positions seeing a stronger increase, resulting in a more positive position change. (2) Iron Ore: Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global shipments and hot metal production remain high, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The actual supply and demand imbalance is not significant, and pre-holiday inventory restocking is providing support. A small sample of steel mills have already started restocking. In the short term, attention should be paid to production restrictions in Tangshan. In the medium term, it remains to be seen whether weak expectations will materialize amidst declining hot metal production. The strategy focuses on 1-5 positive arbitrage opportunities. ⑶ Coking Coal: Due to strict crackdowns on overproduction, production in some regions has decreased. Coking companies have begun replenishing inventories during the National Day holiday, boosting procurement activity among intermediaries and improving coal mine order signings, strengthening spot market momentum. However, due to limited demand for steel, the positive feedback from the supply chain may be limited. Market valuations remain at a premium. Long and short positions in the top 20 positions of the 2601 coking coal contract are primarily reduced, with long positions seeing a larger reduction. Technically, focus on the 1165-1180 support level. The strategy maintains a light short-term long position on pullbacks. ⑷ Coke: Hot metal production remains high, and demand for coke is stable. Combined with pre-holiday coking companies replenishing inventories, cost support is strengthening, making further downward adjustments in spot prices more difficult. Short-term market performance is stable, but Coke 01 has already reflected two to three rounds of price increases in spot prices. A wait-and-see approach is recommended. ⑸ Manganese silicon: Manganese ore shipments remain stable, factory operations have rebounded, and factory inventories have increased slightly. However, expectations of declining demand remain, and upward momentum is insufficient. Low-level fluctuations are expected, driven by raw material fluctuations. The top 20 positions in the manganese silicon 2601 contract are mainly bullish and bearish, and funds are in a state of game.

20:17:01

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: The daily Bollinger Band (MB) is at 1.3811, the upper band at 1.3899, and the lower band at 1.3722. The exchange rate is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 1.3775, generally within the mean reversion zone, below the middle band and above the lower band. This reflects a sideways trend and declining volatility after a rapid rally. The price recently retreated after an unsuccessful attempt to reach 1.3924, reaching a low of 1.3725, forming a dynamic and static resonance support with the lower band at 1.3722. The earlier low at 1.3539 defines the base of the upward trend since June of this year. If the 1.3720-1.3900 range is defined, the current price is in the lower quartile, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears above the lower band and below the moving average. At the indicator level: MACD is slightly negative near the zero axis, and the histogram is converging, indicating a low-level oscillation after the kinetic energy has weakened; RSI (14) is about 47.74, in a neutral and slightly weak range, and does not give an overbought/oversold signal. Combined with the convergence of the Bollinger Band width, the short-term is more in line with the technical characteristics of "Bollinger Band squeeze - direction to be determined". Support and resistance: First look at 1.3722/1.3725 (Bollinger lower band/near-end low) and the dense trading area of 1.3685~1.3690, and further to the key low of 1.3539; above, pay attention to 1.3811 (Bollinger middle band/mean magnetic level), 1.3899 (Bollinger upper band) and 1.3924 (recent high). Before 1.3811 is effectively recovered, the mean pressure is still there; if the closing price stands above the middle band and the volume increases, it will be considered to trigger the "mean upward shift + bandwidth expansion" breakthrough prototype.

20:10:51

What signal does the Bank of England suddenly slam on the brakes on its quantitative tightening program? ⑴ The Bank of England announced Thursday that it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening, reducing its government bond reductions to £70 billion between October 2025 and September 2026 from £100 billion over the previous 12 months. This marked the first adjustment to the pace of reduction since the bank began shrinking its balance sheet in 2022. ⑵ The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4%, in line with market expectations, while also slightly raising its third-quarter economic growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.4%. ⑶ The bond sales structure underwent a significant shift, with short-term, medium-term, and long-term government bond sales now split 40:40:20 over the next year. Previously, bonds of all maturities were sold evenly. This shift was intended to alleviate pressure on the long-term bond market. ⑷ Disagreements emerged within the policymaking ranks, with Chief Economist Peel advocating for maintaining the £100 billion reduction, while Mann called for a sharper reduction to £62 billion, indicating differing views among policymakers on market tolerance. ⑸ UK 30-year government bond yields hit their highest level since 1998 earlier this month, putting pressure on Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves. This slowdown in the pace of QT is believed to help ease tensions in the bond market. ⑹ The inflation outlook remains uncertain. The Bank of England expects inflation to peak at 4% this month and then decline slowly, returning to its target level of 2% until the second quarter of 2027. ⑺ Market expectations are becoming more cautious. According to LSEG data, traders' expectations for the probability of further interest rate cuts this year have only risen slightly from 32% to 37%, indicating that the market believes the Bank of England will maintain a cautious policy stance.

20:05:26

[Global Aluminum Market Supply Crisis! Prices Could Soar to $3,000] ⑴ The global aluminum market is shifting from a chronic oversupply to a severe shortage. Citigroup warns that the market is "sleepwalking into its largest deficit in 20 years," predicting that prices must rise from the current $2,700 per ton to over $3,000 and remain high to avoid global metal depletion. ⑵ LME inventory levels are concerning. Total inventories have hovered around 700,000 tons since May, a significant decrease from 1 million tons in the same period last year and 3 million tons four years ago, and exchange liquidity has declined significantly. ⑶ Russian aluminum flows have undergone a significant shift. Due to sanctions restricting its access to the LME system, a large amount of Rusal has shifted to Asian markets, further exacerbating tight exchange inventories. ⑷ Overseas aluminum production faces structural challenges. Despite adjustments to US tariff policies, high energy costs have caused operational difficulties for smelters worldwide. Thirty-two South African companies have warned of the possible closure of their Mozambique smelter. ⑸ Indonesia has become the only hope for new global supply, but Citigroup estimates that its annual production capacity will only reach 2.3 million tons by 2030, far below the planned target of 7 million tons, as new smelters face significant energy supply challenges. ⑹ The demand side continues to strengthen, with rapid growth in demand for aluminum from the new energy and electric vehicle industries, providing strong support for global consumption and exacerbating supply gap pressures. ⑺ The aluminum market may usher in a historic turning point. The crises of the past three decades were all caused by oversupply, while the next crisis will be an unprecedented supply shortage crisis.

19:56:00

[US Treasury Repo Rates Plummet, Easing Expectations Draw Attention] ⑴ The repo rate plummeted 24 basis points to 4.18% yesterday, in line with yesterday's 25 basis point rate cut. The new rate range is set between 4.00% and 4.25%. Treasury bond settlements resulted in $11 billion in fund outflows, keeping the overnight rate in the upper half of the new range. ⑵ The market generally expects another 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a 90% probability. As a result, a large number of long positions remain open, and tight liquidity will continue to push interest rates higher. Institutional funds such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to begin entering the market tomorrow, which may temporarily ease upward pressure on interest rates. ⑶ According to institutional data, the new RRP and IOER rates are 4.00% and 4.15%, respectively. The five-year Treasury bond premium fell 15 basis points to -10 basis points, and the 20-year Treasury bond premium fell 27 basis points to -78 basis points, with short-term positions decreasing. (4) The repo rate for mortgage-backed securities is 3 basis points above the repo rate, a 3 basis point tightening from yesterday. According to institutional data, SOFR futures prices indicate a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, and the 0x3 Overnight Index Swap (OIS) contract also suggests another rate cut. (5) Wednesday's 4-month Treasury bill auction yielded a winning rate of 3.815%. A series of Treasury bill auctions and issuances will take place on Thursday (Beijing Time). Short-term repo bids are approximately 8 basis points above the repo rate, with one-month bids at 4.25%, two-month bids at 4.26%, and three-month bids at 4.26%.

19:50:40

[Data Confused the Fed, Clouding Policy Path] ⑴ The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut in nearly nine months on Wednesday, citing growing risks in the labor market as the rationale. ⑵ Although the Fed Chair claimed that employment risks had risen significantly and outweighed inflation risks, policymakers lowered their median unemployment rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively. ⑶ The Fed also raised its GDP growth forecasts for this year and next, as well as its inflation outlook for next year. ⑷ The updated dot plot shows that officials anticipate three rate cuts this year, up from two in June, but they appear to lack confidence in these projections, with the Chair admitting to being in a "meeting-by-meeting" decision-making mode. ⑸ Overall, the Fed, while citing downside risks to the labor market, raised its growth and inflation forecasts and lowered its unemployment rate forecast, demonstrating a lack of consensus within the Fed on the economic outlook. ⑹ One institutional strategist noted multiple inconsistencies between the Fed's dot plot and its economic forecasts. ⑺ Furthermore, policymakers face significant uncertainty regarding both the employment and inflation outlooks. For example, while the unemployment rate remains low, monthly non-farm payroll growth has declined sharply. ⑻ Furthermore, Trump's tariff rhetoric and its potential impact have created uncertainty about the inflation outlook. ⑼ Another chief economist also stated that the Fed faces a tension between its dual mandates of price stability and maximum sustainable employment, which lies at the heart of its internal forecasting contradictions. ⑽ Ultimately, in the absence of a "risk-free" policy path, whether the Fed's interest rate cuts are the right path remains uncertain.

19:46:46

[US Soybean Market Under Pressure: Biofuel Policy Adds Uncertainty] ⑴ Chicago soybean futures fell 0.4% to $10.40 per bushel for the second consecutive trading day on Thursday, as a US biofuel proposal fell short of market expectations, weakening soybean oil prices. ⑵ The proposal did not clarify how biofuel blending obligations would be redistributed under the government's small refinery exemption program, leading to high market uncertainty. ⑶ Mandatory biofuel blending consumes a significant amount of soybean oil used to produce renewable diesel. As a result, Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil prices fell 0.6% on Thursday, following a nearly 3% drop on Wednesday. ⑷ Institutional analysts stated that uncertainty remains high regarding the upcoming decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency. ⑸ Meanwhile, China's lack of US soybean purchases amid trade frictions is also putting pressure on the US Midwest soybean market, which is currently experiencing autumn harvest season. ⑹ Despite this, corn and wheat futures prices rebounded, supported by a slightly weaker US dollar. ⑺Corn prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose slightly by 0.1% to $4.27 per bushel, while wheat prices rose by 0.5% to $5.30-3/4 per bushel. ⑻The market is closely watching the weekly export sales data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Thursday to assess demand. ⑼The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture said the Trump administration is developing a plan to use tariff revenue to subsidize American farmers.

19:31:59

[Chip Giants Form $5 Billion Alliance, Reigniting the AI Battlefield] ⑴ Nvidia announced a $5 billion strategic investment in Intel, purchasing common stock at $23.28 per share. Upon completion of the transaction, the company expects to hold over 4% of Intel's shares, becoming a significant shareholder. ⑵ The partnership includes joint development of chips for PCs and data centers, but explicitly excludes Intel from manufacturing chips for Nvidia. ⑶ Intel has recently received several significant capital injections, including a $2 billion investment from SoftBank and a $5.7 billion injection from the US government. Combined with this investment from Nvidia, its cash flow position has been significantly strengthened. ⑷ The core of the technical collaboration is to leverage Nvidia's proprietary high-speed interconnect technology to integrate Intel's central processing units with Nvidia's AI acceleration chips, aiming to improve data transmission efficiency and compete with competitors such as AMD and Broadcom. ⑸ This alliance could pose a potential challenge to TSMC's existing business, as Nvidia currently primarily manufactures its flagship processors, and the possibility of transferring some orders in the future cannot be ruled out. (6) In the consumer market, Nvidia will provide Intel with customized graphics chips, enabling it to build a competitive processor portfolio and compete with AMD in the PC market. (7) While the two parties did not disclose a specific product launch timeline, they did state that they will jointly advance the development of "multiple generations" of products, and that their respective existing product roadmaps will not be altered as a result of this collaboration.

19:31:21

Canada's CFIB Business Barometer for September

Previous : 47.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 50.20

Previous

19:11:20

[Bank of England Sends Key Signal: Slowing Tightening Pace] ⑴ The Bank of England decided on Thursday to maintain its key interest rate at 4%, a move approved by a 7-2 vote, consistent with institutional survey results. ⑵ The Bank of England also announced a slowdown in the pace of quantitative tightening (QT), reducing the annual sales of UK government bonds from £100 billion to £70 billion. ⑶ This decision, also approved by a 7-2 vote, was close to institutional forecasts of £67.5 billion. ⑷ Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that the move was intended to minimize the impact on bond markets while continuing to reduce the size of the balance sheet, especially after long-term UK government bond yields recently hit a new high since 1998. ⑸ The Bank of England maintained its forecast that inflation will peak at 4% this month and expects it to slowly return to its 2% target by the second quarter of 2027. It also raised its third-quarter economic growth forecast to 0.4%. ⑹ Bailey emphasized that despite the expected decline in inflation, any future interest rate cuts will need to be gradual and cautious. ⑺ It is worth noting that there are differences within the Monetary Policy Committee: Chief Economist Hugh Peel believes that the tightening pace should be maintained at 100 billion pounds, while another member, Catherine Mann, advocates accelerating it to 62 billion pounds. ⑻ Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, continue to vote in favor of cutting interest rates.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 3659.02

14.75

(0.40%)

XAG

 42.308

0.515

(1.23%)

CONC

 63.05

-0.21

(-0.33%)

OILC

 67.27

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(-0.29%)

USD

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-0.039

(-0.04%)

EURUSD

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-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

 1.3550

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

USDCNH

 7.1092

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(0.04%)
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