2025-12-18 Thursday
2025-12-19
21:30:18
New pork export sales in the United States as of December 11 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
4.75
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.34
Previous
21:30:18
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - total soybean oil for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2.55
Previous
21:30:17
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - Soybean meal for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
15.10
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
43.60
Previous
21:30:17
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - Soybean meal for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0.05
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
21:30:16
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - soybeans for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1
Previous
21:30:15
U.S. soybean new export sales for the week ending December 11 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
245.54
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
121.48
Previous
21:30:14
U.S. New corn export sales for the week ending December 11 -USDA Weekly
Previous
:
193.60
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
205.05
Previous
21:30:14
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - Corn for the second year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.51
Previous
21:30:13
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - Corn for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
184.32
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
179.22
Previous
21:30:12
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - total beef -USDA weekly
Previous
:
1.71
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.19
Previous
21:30:12
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - total pork -USDA weekly
Previous
:
4.49
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.06
Previous
21:30:11
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - total soybean meal for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
15.15
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
43.60
Previous
21:30:10
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - soybeans for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
232.07
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
110.60
Previous
21:30:10
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - total wheat for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
36.92
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
46.07
Previous
21:30:10
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - wheat for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
36.17
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
46.07
Previous
21:30:10
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - cotton for the current year -USDA weekly
Previous
:
14.84
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
13.59
Previous
21:30:07
The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits for the week ending December 6
Previous
:
183.80
Forecast
:
193
Published Value
189.70
Previous
21:30:06
U.S. net export sales for the week ending December 11 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly
Previous
:
184.32
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
179.73
Previous
21:30:06
The U.S. CPI reading for November was not seasonally adjusted
Previous
:
324.80
Forecast
:
325.13
Published Value
324.12
Previous
21:30:06
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 13
Previous
:
23.60
Forecast
:
22.50
Published Value
22.40
Previous
21:30:04
The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending December 13
Previous
:
21.68
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
21.75
Previous
21:22:41
Canada's CFIB Business Barometer for December
Previous
:
55.47
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
59.91
Previous
21:18:50
[Interest Rates Unchanged, Expectations Slightly Adjusted: ECB Finds a "Comfort Zone" Between Growth and Inflation] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) decided on Thursday to keep its three key interest rates unchanged: the deposit facility rate, the main refinancing rate, and the marginal lending rate, at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. ⑵ Its latest assessment reaffirms that inflation is expected to stabilize at the 2% target level over the medium term. ⑶ The latest forecasts from Eurosystem staff show that overall inflation will average 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028; core inflation (excluding energy and food) is projected at 2.4%, 2.2%, 1.9%, and 2.0%, respectively. ⑷ Notably, the 2026 inflation forecast has been slightly revised upward, mainly because staff now expect a slower decline in inflation in the services sector. (5) Meanwhile, economic growth forecasts were revised upwards across the board compared to the September projections, primarily driven by domestic demand. Growth is projected at 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in both 2027 and 2028. (6) The ECB emphasized that it will rely on data and analyze each meeting individually to determine its policy stance, and has not pre-committed to a specific interest rate path. (7) As bonds redeemed under the asset purchase program mature and are no longer reinvested, its balance sheet is contracting at a controlled and predictable pace. (8) Overall, the upward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts provide ample justification for the ECB to remain on hold, suggesting that its rate-cutting cycle may have paused and policy will enter a period of observation.
21:17:37
[Inflation Path Slightly Revised Upward, Growth Forecasts Raised Across the Board, ECB Demonstrates Policy Resolve] ⑴ The ECB's latest staff forecasts show that overall inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. ⑵ The updated assessment reaffirms that inflation should stabilize at the 2% target over the medium term. ⑶ Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is projected to average 2.4% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. ⑷ Notably, the 2026 inflation forecast has been slightly revised upward, primarily because staff now expect a slower decline in service prices. ⑸ Meanwhile, economic growth forecasts have been revised upward across the board compared to the September forecasts, mainly driven by domestic demand, with projected growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.4% in both 2027 and 2028. (6) The European Central Bank reiterated its commitment to ensuring inflation remains stable at its 2% target over the medium term. (7) This series of forecasts paints a picture of "moderately declining inflation and more resilient economic growth," providing data support for the ECB to maintain current interest rates and not rush into further easing.
21:15:21
The marginal lending rate of the European Central Bank for the eurozone in December
Previous
:
2.40%
Forecast
:
2.40%
Published Value
2.40%
Previous
21:15:05
The deposit rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in December
Previous
:
2%
Forecast
:
2%
Published Value
2%
Previous
21:15:05
The main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in the eurozone in December
Previous
:
2.15%
Forecast
:
2.15%
Published Value
2.15%
Previous
21:03:36
Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending December 12
Previous
:
7415
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
7410
Previous
21:02:15
Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending December 12
Previous
:
7415
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
7410
Previous
21:00:40
[US Stock Market Pre-Market: Micron's Strong Earnings Guidance, Memory Chip Shortage Continues] ⑴ On December 18, US stock futures rose across the board, with Nasdaq futures up 0.85%, S&P 500 futures up 0.45%, and Dow futures up 0.18%. Meanwhile, European stocks showed mixed performance, with the German DAX index up 0.25%, the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.04%, the French CAC index up 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.35%. (2) Key highlights focus on Micron Technology, whose Q1 results and guidance both exceeded market expectations. The company's CEO explicitly stated that the DRAM supply shortage will continue beyond 2026. The technology sector is also seeing frequent developments: Google launched the low-cost, large-scale Gemini3 Flash, with inference capabilities approaching those of the high-end Gemini3 Pro; Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Apple to $315, listing it as its top pick in 2026 technology hardware stocks; Amazon restructured its AI division, appointing Peter DeSantis, Senior Vice President of Cloud Business, as its head; and investment bank William Blair pointed out that excluding related businesses, Tesla's automotive business is only worth $30-40 per share. (3) The technology ecosystem and semiconductor industry are simultaneously undergoing new changes. The Qianwen APP has begun integrating with its first Alibaba ecosystem scenario—Gaode Maps—giving it the ability to understand and act on the physical world; the semiconductor sector is showing dynamics on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, due to chip shortages, several factories in Japan and China will suspend production in the coming weeks; on the other hand, Texas Instruments' Sherman 12-inch wafer fab SM1 has officially started operation, with a daily chip production capacity of tens of millions of units. Other reports indicate that Trump Media Technology Group plans to merge with nuclear fusion company TAE in an all-stock transaction.
20:58:23
[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Sector Under Overall Pressure, Oilseeds and Fats Weak] ⑴ Chicago Board of Trade soybeans traded weakly, the US Environmental Protection Agency's policy implementation is still far off, coupled with the weak reality in Southeast Asia, the imminent Australian rapeseed crushing, and national reserve auctions, all of which put downward pressure on the oilseed sector in the short term. ⑵ Regarding palm oil, the pre-holiday bulk oil purchasing window for vegetable oil brands is nearing its end, and prices in February next year will be lower than current prices, prompting traders to accelerate inventory releases. ⑶ Spot prices generally weakened, with 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou quoted at 8380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday; soybean oil quoted at 8340 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu quoted at 9260 yuan/ton, unchanged. ⑷ Soybean meal futures have been fluctuating recently. US soybean prices have gradually returned to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, leading to a pullback. Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and ongoing domestic pressure. (5) Recently, due to tightened customs policies, the arrival time of some imported soybeans has been delayed, causing domestic soybean meal prices to stabilize. Short-term, it is recommended to sell on rallies. (6) Regarding corn, recent price declines have somewhat dampened farmers' reluctance to sell, leading to increased selling activity. However, northern port inventories remain low year-on-year, and the logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains. (7) It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks, while continuously monitoring changes in farmers' selling sentiment. (8) Regarding hogs, the recent approaching winter solstice and peak season for cured meat demand has led to a stronger spot market. Coupled with news of swine disease in northern China, spot prices have rebounded. (9) However, the long-term supply situation remains loose. It is recommended to sell short the hog 03 contract on rallies, while monitoring the slaughtering pace and the peak demand during the winter solstice. (10) Egg spot prices have recently been mainly range-bound. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. 11. It is suggested that short positions may be entered at appropriate times, but the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices should be continuously monitored.
20:57:11
[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Commodities Affected by Both Geopolitical and Fundamental Factors] ⑴ Geopolitically, the EU's involvement in the Ukraine issue and the progress made in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, though with limited direct effects, suggest a low probability of a short-term end to the conflict. The US has ordered a comprehensive blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, continuing geopolitical risks. ⑵ Regarding crude oil, global land and sea inventories remain high, downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have risen above seasonal levels, suggesting crude oil prices will likely fluctuate with a downward bias. ⑶ Regarding fuel oil, recent geopolitical tensions have become more complex, but crude oil prices are expected to follow suit with a downward bias due to weakening downstream demand. Considering geopolitical risks, a long position in asphalt and a short position in fuel oil is recommended. ⑷ Regarding glass, float glass manufacturers experienced a slowdown in overall shipments this week, industry inventories rose slightly, demand weakened, and orders for sample processing plants declined month-on-month. ⑸ Real estate completion demand has fallen sharply, glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, and midstream inventories are large. The "low valuation and weak driver" are evident, suggesting prices will likely fluctuate at low levels. If year-end cold repair plans are gradually implemented, the downside potential will be limited. (6) Regarding soda ash, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 33,700 tons this Thursday compared to Monday, a drop of 2.20%. The operating rate of soda ash plants this week was 82.74%. (7) Overall, with more major plants undergoing maintenance in December, the soda ash market can basically achieve a supply-demand balance supported by the low operating rate. However, the market is still suppressed by expectations of a recovery in distant supply and the background of overcapacity, and is expected to fluctuate at low levels. (8) Regarding caustic soda, the liquid caustic soda market in eastern Shandong was relatively strong this week. After orders from outside the province began to be fulfilled, enterprise inventories declined, and some enterprises had a strong atmosphere of price increases. (9) After a phase of destocking, some enterprises began to rebound at low prices. At the end of the month, some chlorine-consuming units reduced their operating rates due to power plant maintenance plans. There is still a risk of a decline in liquid chlorine prices around New Year's Day. Do not blindly short sell, but the market is still in a state of high supply and high inventory, and the short-selling space for a rebound is also limited in the short term. (10) Regarding methanol, today's spot price in Taicang is 2155, and the price in Inner Mongolia North Line is 1925. Port inventories decreased by 15,600 tons this week, indicating a strengthening market sentiment. (11) Due to the continued implementation of Iran's gas restrictions, there is a risk of reduced imports in the far-month contracts. The judgment of near-term weakness and far-term strength is maintained. The downside potential for the May contract may be limited, making it suitable to buy on dips. In the short term, the methanol market is expected to remain stable, with price fluctuations narrowing.
20:56:24
[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous Metals Sector Supported by Macro Liquidity Expectations] ⑴ On the macro front, the US unemployment rate rose to its highest level since September 2021 in November, indicating an uncertain economic outlook and exacerbating policy uncertainty, increasing the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. ⑵ Recent remarks by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan reflect increased internal disagreement on interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity pressures and supporting non-ferrous metal prices. ⑶ Regarding Shanghai copper, the spot market supply is ample, and holders are willing to sell, but transactions are generally weak. The strategy is to buy on dips. ⑷ Regarding Shanghai zinc, in the long term, with supply increasing and demand stabilizing, there is a tendency for oversupply in the supply-demand balance. The realization of oversupply expectations depends on the transmission from the mining to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. ⑸ Precious metal prices continue to rise, with silver reaching a new high due to tight spot supply. Long-term prices remain supported; the strategy is to buy on dips, but recent volatility necessitates cautious trading. (6) Alumina prices have rebounded recently, but the fundamentals remain in oversupply, with some high-cost companies facing losses and no large-scale production cuts yet, resulting in inventory accumulation. (7) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the oversupply situation. A trend reversal is unlikely in the short term. Short selling on rallies is advisable, with attention focused on whether loss-making production cuts occur. (8) For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum, cooling macro sentiment has led to price corrections. The fundamentals show stable supply but weakening demand, with inventory potentially accumulating, limiting support. (9) However, given the generally positive macroeconomic outlook both domestically and internationally, and expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy on dips can be considered after the correction stabilizes, with subsequent monitoring of domestic demand and inventory levels. (10) The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has triggered market concerns about lithium resource supply, leading to a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures and a strong breakout. 11. In the short term, supported by delayed resumption of production, supply concerns, and positive demand expectations, lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong trend. However, the risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be guarded against, and the strategy should focus on buying on dips. 12. In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in 2026, with a slight increase in the price center. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of key project resumption, production volume, and inventory changes.
20:55:24
[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Logic for the Ferrous Metals Market Shifts to Cost Support and Winter Stockpiling] ⑴ The current steel market continues its pattern of weak supply and demand and declining inventory, further easing the pressure of high inventory. Downstream buyers are more willing to purchase, and the market trading logic is gradually shifting towards winter stockpiling of raw materials, strengthening cost support expectations. In the short term, the market may move upward along with raw material prices. ⑵ However, demand expectations remain weak, coupled with the expectation of steel mills resuming production after New Year's Day, which may limit the upside potential of finished steel prices. Fund structure data shows that short positions in the rebar 05 contract decreased more significantly, while the hot-rolled coil 05 contract saw increases in both long and short positions, with short positions increasing more significantly, resulting in an overall bearish trend in open interest. ⑶ In summary, the supply and demand drivers in the steel market are relatively limited, and short-term trends will depend more on changes in costs. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dips strategy and avoid chasing the market higher. ⑷ From the perspective of actual supply and demand, pig iron production continues to decline, and port inventories have risen to absolute highs, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for iron ore prices. In terms of expectations, current steel mill imported iron ore inventories are at a relatively low level in recent years. With the winter stockpiling window approaching, the expectation of price support at the bottom is gradually strengthening. (5) In the short term, market trading focus is shifting towards stockpiling logic, and raw material prices may outperform finished steel prices. Regarding the capital structure, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders have increased, with long positions showing a more significant increase, and the overall position change is slightly bullish. (6) Customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, while domestic supply continues to contract. On the demand side, downstream purchasing intentions have strengthened, but large-scale concentrated stockpiling has not yet occurred. (7) In terms of capital, the top 20 holders of the main 05 contract have slightly increased long positions, while short positions have changed only slightly, resulting in an overall bullish position structure. In summary, with the winter stockpiling window approaching, the upward momentum of spot prices has strengthened. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a short-term buying strategy on pullbacks and closely monitor subsequent changes in capital flows. (8) Environmental protection-related production restrictions in Shanxi, Henan, Shaanxi, and Hebei provinces have caused some disruption to coke production and supply. However, thanks to reasonable profit margins per ton of coke, most coke producers have maintained stable operating rates. (9) On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills' demand for coke has been weak, leading to an accumulation of inventory at coke plants. The third round of price reductions for spot coke is expected to be implemented soon. (10) From a valuation perspective, current coke futures prices have largely reflected pessimistic expectations in the spot market, and valuations are in a relatively low range. Overall, the coke market presents a game between "low valuation" and "weak drivers." Short-term trends are expected to continue to fluctuate following coking coal prices. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in steel mill procurement schedules. (11) The manganese silicon market presents a pattern of both supply and demand reductions. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers has decreased slightly month-on-month, and demand has also continued to decline. Plant inventories have continued to accumulate, resulting in a weak overall supply and demand structure.
20:47:19
[First Batch of Zero-Tariff Petrochemical Raw Materials Arrive at Yangpu Port] Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its island-wide customs closure today, with multiple batches of zero-tariff goods entering Hainan Island through ports and airports. These goods include crude oil, medical equipment, aviation materials, and food ingredients. This morning, the first batch of zero-tariff petrochemical raw materials arrived at Yangpu Port, totaling 179,000 tons and valued at nearly 400 million yuan, saving companies approximately 10 million yuan. After the Hainan Free Trade Port's customs closure, the zero-tariff policy will be further expanded, increasing the number of relevant commodity tariff lines from 1,900 to approximately 6,600, accounting for about 74% of all commodity tariff lines. (CCTV Finance)
20:32:35
Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Starting from the start of trading on December 23, 2025, non-futures company members or clients shall not open more than 500 lots of positions per day in platinum futures contracts PT2606, PT2608, PT2610, and PT2612, respectively, and shall not open more than 500 lots of positions per day in palladium futures contracts PD2606, PD2608, PD2610, and PD2612, respectively.
20:32:25
Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Starting from the start of trading on December 22, 2025, the minimum order size for each opening position in polysilicon futures contracts PS2601, PS2602, PS2603, PS2604, PS2605, PS2606, PS2607, PS2608, PS2609, PS2610, PS2611 and PS2612 will be adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum order size for each closing position will remain at 1 lot.
20:25:44
[Market Interpretation: Market Fully Prices Up Next Bank of England Rate Cut to June Meeting, Not April as Previously Expected] ⑴ Analysts point out that the Bank of England's rate cut decision itself was not a major surprise, but the market reaction leaned towards a "hawkish" interpretation. ⑵ After the decision was announced, the market reduced its bets on future rate cuts, and the next rate cut is now fully priced in to be postponed to the June meeting, rather than the previously expected April. ⑶ Analysts believe that if the pound rebounds as a result, it will be a completely predictable reaction, and the jump in UK government bond yields confirms this. ⑷ Some market participants had expected a 6-3 vote, meaning more members supported the rate cut, but the actual narrow 5-4 majority weakened the dovish signal of policy. ⑸ Nevertheless, analysts point out that inflation fell faster than the Bank of England expected, and its statement still sent a clear signal that bank interest rates may decline at a slightly faster pace, opening the door to further rate cuts. (6) The core argument is that once inflation is clearly on track to return to the 2% target, and the downtrend unexpectedly accelerates this process, the Bank of England will be unwilling to tolerate economic growth remaining below its potential level. This forms the logical basis for further easing in the future.
20:23:23
[Policy Shift: Bank of England Takes Key Step in Rate Cut, But "Neutral Interest Rate" Ambiguity Limits Future Scope] ⑴ At its December Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of England voted 5-4 to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the first rate cut since August, bringing the rate to a near three-year low. ⑵ This rate cut reflects the majority opinion of the committee members that inflation is cooling at a sufficiently rapid pace, providing conditions for further policy easing in 2026. ⑶ However, the meeting minutes and Governor Bailey's statements indicate that the central bank is highly cautious about the future policy path. ⑷ Bailey explicitly pointed out that while interest rates are still on a gradual downward path, how far they can go with each rate cut becomes more uncertain. ⑸ The central bank adopted new wording, emphasizing that as interest rates gradually approach the "neutral interest rate" (i.e., a level that neither stimulates nor inhibits the economy), future decisions on further easing will require more careful consideration. (6) This statement reveals the core concern within the central bank: balancing the downward trend in inflation with an uncertain neutral interest rate level, indicating that future interest rate cuts will be more cautious and data-dependent.
20:15:04
[Bank of England Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected, But Hints at Higher Threshold for Future Easing] ⑴ The Bank of England implemented the widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, but the Monetary Policy Committee indicated that the "easy" part of the easing cycle was over, causing the pound to strengthen. ⑵ The pound jumped 35 points against the dollar after the decision was announced, as the market digested this suspenseful decision and the statement hinting at a higher threshold for rate cuts in 2026. ⑶ This rate cut lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, after a "wait-and-see" pause in November. ⑷ The consensus vote was 5-4 in favor of the rate cut, with Governor Bailey shifting to the rate-cutting camp. The rate cut was fully priced in, and the result was in line with expectations. ⑸ Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was the main catalyst. Overall inflation fell sharply to 3.2%, lower than market forecasts and the central bank's own expectations. ⑹ October GDP data also unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, indicating a weaker-than-expected economic recovery, with the unemployment rate climbing to 5%. (7) The central bank explicitly stated that with interest rates approaching neutral levels, further easing will become "more difficult to decide." (8) Bailey warned that future rate cuts have "more limited room for maneuver," and the future is unpredictable. (9) The central bank also warned that inflation will temporarily rise this month due to tobacco taxes and airfare increases, and expects overall inflation to remain above the 2% target until the second quarter of 2026. (10) Voting results: 5 to 4. Bailey, Lombardelli, Taylor, Dingela, and Briden voted for a rate cut; Green, Mann, Pierre, and Duggan voted to keep rates unchanged. (11) Staff predict fourth-quarter GDP growth of 0.0%, lower than the +0.3% forecast in November. (12) The fall 2025 budget is expected to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in April 2026, but increase it by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2027/2028. The data did not show a "rapid increase in idle capacity."
20:13:17
[Disagreements are glaringly obvious: Bank of England meeting minutes reveal heated debate between doves and hawks on the logic of rate cuts] ⑴ The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow majority of 5 to 4 to cut the bank's interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%, with four members voting to keep the rate at 4%. ⑵ Since the last meeting, CPI inflation has fallen to 3.2%, still above the 2% target, but is now expected to fall back to near the target more quickly in the near term. ⑶ The Committee believes that the risks of persistently high inflation have become less apparent, while the downside risks to inflation from weak demand remain. ⑷ Monetary policy is set to ensure that CPI inflation remains sustainably stable at 2% over the medium term, which requires balancing the risks to achieving this target. ⑸ Based on current evidence, bank interest rates are likely to continue along a gradual downward path, but judgments regarding further policy easing will become more difficult. (6) Members supporting rate cuts (Bailey, Briden, Dingela, Ramsden, Taylor) believe that the anti-inflation process is proceeding smoothly, upside risks are receding, and weak economic activity and accumulated slack in the labor market support easing. (7) Bailey points out that the key issue is whether inflation can remain stable at the 2% target. Although there is no conclusive evidence of a sharp deterioration in the labor market, vigilance is needed, and as interest rates approach neutral levels, future policy space is more limited. (8) Members opposing rate cuts and supporting maintaining interest rates (Green, Lombardy, Mann, Peel) are more concerned about the risk of persistent inflation stickiness, believing that forward-looking indicators such as service inflation, wage growth, and inflation expectations are still above the target level, and the monetary policy stance may not be strict enough. (9) Specifically, Peel believes that the risk of inflation stabilizing above the target due to structural changes is greater than the risk of inflation falling below the target due to weak demand. (10) The meeting minutes revealed in detail the deep disagreements within the committee regarding the inflation outlook, the uncertainty of the neutral interest rate, and the effectiveness of policy transmission, indicating that future interest rate decision-making will be highly dependent on data, and that every step will be a difficult trade-off.
20:08:43
[The Norwegian central bank maintains its policy rate at 4.0%, as widely expected, on Thursday.] 2. The central bank stated that despite inflation exceeding its target, it anticipates one or two rate cuts over the next year. 3. The central bank governor noted at a press conference that if the economy develops broadly as currently expected, the policy rate will be further reduced over the next year. 4. However, the central bank explicitly stated that it is in no hurry to cut rates and emphasized that its interest rate outlook has remained largely unchanged since the September report. 5. The latest interest rate forecasts indicate that there may be three to four rate cuts over the next three years, meaning the policy rate could fall to 3% by the end of 2028. 6. The central bank stressed that maintaining a restrictive policy is necessary to reduce inflation, facing a trade-off between quickly bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an undue rise in unemployment. 7. According to its forecasts, through cautious policy normalization, inflation will gradually fall to the target level by 2028 without at the expense of a significant increase in unemployment. (8) The Norwegian krone strengthened after the interest rate decision was announced, reflecting the market's perception that the stance was more hawkish than expected. (9) Data released last week showed that Norway's core inflation slowed to 3.0% year-on-year in November, but remained above the official target of 2.0%. (10) A central bank business survey showed that Norwegian companies' capacity utilization rates have recently declined, and business leaders expect growth to slow in early 2026.
20:05:10
[Bank of England Takes Cautious Step in Rate Cut Amid Divergence, Future Path Remains Uncertain] ⑴ On Thursday, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow 5-4 to cut the benchmark interest rate from 4.0% to 3.75%, marking the fourth rate cut in 2025. ⑵ Governor Andrew Bailey changed his stance, voting in favor of the rate cut, thus disrupting the balance within the committee. ⑶ Bailey stated that he still believes interest rates are on a gradual downward path, but with each rate cut, how far they can go will become a more difficult decision. ⑷ Bank staff lowered their economic growth forecasts, now expecting zero GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, a significant downward revision from the 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth forecast last month, although they believe the potential quarterly growth rate is around 0.2%. (5) The central bank noted that inflation is now expected to fall back to the target level more quickly in the near term. The recent fiscal budget may reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points by April 2026, but may subsequently push it up slightly by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in 2027 and 2028. (6) Specific forecasts show that inflation is expected to ease to around 3% in the first quarter of 2026 and get closer to the 2% target in the second quarter, but may temporarily rise in December 2025 due to tobacco taxes and airfare factors. (7) The central bank believes that budgetary measures may increase GDP by about 0.1%-0.2% over the next few years, but fiscal tightening three years later will be a drag. (8) The Monetary Policy Committee emphasized in its statement that "judging further policy easing will become more difficult," and noted that uncertainty about the estimate of the neutral interest rate may complicate future easing decisions. (9) Although the data is generally encouraging, the Committee believes that labor market data largely do not show a rapid increase in spare capacity, and inflation risks remain two-way. (10) This dovish but cautious rate cut highlights the dilemma the Bank of England faces in balancing weak economic data with inflation levels that are still higher than its peers, and foreshadows a very slow and uncertain pace of future easing.
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