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2025-08-01 Friday

2025-08-02

20:34:55

Traders are fully pricing in an October Fed rate cut again

20:34:45

Spot gold just broke through the $3,330.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,330.56/ounce, up 1.24% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,382.70/ounce, up 1.02% on the day.

20:34:38

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The unemployment rate is 4.2%, with 7.2 million unemployed people. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024.

20:34:33

[Unfortunate employment data: Are cracks emerging in the US economy?] ⑴ Data from the US Department of Labor showed that 73,000 new jobs were added in July, below the 100,000 economists had expected. ⑵ The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. ⑶ Although the number of new jobs fell short of expectations, some analysts believe that the monthly number of new jobs needed to maintain a stable US labor market has fallen to approximately 86,000 due to factors such as reduced immigration. ⑷ Therefore, the 73,000 figure may not be entirely weak. ⑸ The market currently has two divergent views on the direction of the economy. One view is that the economy is resilient and the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully transmitted. ⑹ The other view is that cracks are emerging in the economy, with consumers becoming more price sensitive, especially young consumers, who are reducing discretionary spending. ⑺ UBS's chief US economist stated that everyone is trying to understand where the economy is headed. ⑻ Despite the weak employment data, senior researchers at the Labor Market Research Institute believe that most major indicators have remained stable since last fall.

20:34:23

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment in health care and social assistance continues to rise. Federal government continues to cut jobs

20:34:01

After the release of the U.S. July non-farm payroll data, spot gold rose rapidly, hitting a two-day high and now stands at $3,326.79 per ounce, with the intraday increase expanding to 1.11%.

20:33:55

Brazil's industrial output edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending two consecutive months of decline. (1) Brazil's industrial output edged up 0.1% month-over-month in June, ending two consecutive months of decline, but below market expectations of a 0.4% increase. (2) Growth in capital goods (+1.2%) and durable consumer goods (+0.2%) offset declines in other categories, with semi-durable and non-durable goods (-1.2%) falling for the third consecutive month. (3) Seventeen of the 25 industrial sectors expanded, led by automobile manufacturing (+2.4%); however, mining (-1.9%), petroleum products (-2.3%), and food (-1.9%) dragged down overall output. (4) Industrial output fell 1.3% year-over-year, compared to a 3.3% increase in the previous month.

20:33:44

The New Zealand dollar has just touched the 0.5900 mark against the US dollar. The latest price is 0.5900, up 0.22% on the day.

20:33:24

Spot gold rose 1.01% to $3,323.01 per ounce. COMEX gold futures were last trading at $3,376.30 per ounce, up 0.83% on the day.

20:33:14

The euro has just broken through the 1.1500 mark against the US dollar and is currently trading at 1.1503, up 0.79% on the day.

20:33:01

After the release of the non-farm payroll data, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining unchanged at 4.356%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell after the release of the employment data, falling 8 basis points to 3.871%. The U.S. 2/10-year Treasury yield curve has become steeper, with the latest at 48.8.

20:32:24

Spot gold just broke through the $3,320.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,320.66/ounce, up 0.93% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,374.00/ounce, up 0.76% on the day.

20:31:54

After the release of the U.S. July non-farm payroll data, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply, hitting a new intraday low of 99.6481, turning negative on the day, with a daily drop of 0.42%.

20:31:40

The non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, which was shocking. Gold jumped $8 in one minute to test the resistance of 3309. The unusually weak non-farm payrolls provided more reasons for Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates.

20:31:13

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,290.00/oz mark and was last trading at $1,290.30/oz, down 1.19% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,301.4/oz, up 0.18% on the day.

20:31:10

The U.S. non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, the smallest increase since October last year and lower than the market expectation of 110,000.

20:30:44

USD/CNH just broke through the 7.2100 mark and was last at 7.2097, up 0.07% on the day. USD/CNH was last at 7.2115, up 0.16% on the day.

20:30:35

The seasonally adjusted change in non-farm payrolls in June was revised to 140,000, compared to an initial reading of 147,000.

20:30:24

Spot gold just broke through the $3,310.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,310.19/ounce, up 0.62% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,362.40/ounce, up 0.41% on the day.

20:30:11

The annual rate of average hourly wages in the United States in July

Previous : 3.70% Forecast : 3.80%

美元

金银石油

Published Value 3.90%

20:30:11

Job changes in US government departments in July

Previous : 7.30 Forecast : -

Published Value -1

20:30:11

U.S. U6 unemployment rate in July

Previous : 7.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.90%

20:30:10

The monthly average hourly wage rate in the United States in July

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

20:30:10

The U.S. labor force participation rate in July

Previous : 62.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 62.20%

20:30:07

Unemployment rate in the United States in July

Previous : 4.10% Forecast : 4.20%

Neutral

Published Value 4.20%

20:30:06

The average weekly working hours in the United States in July

Previous : 34.20 Forecast : 34.20

美元

金银石油

Published Value 34.30

20:30:06

Seasonally adjusted changes in manufacturing employment in the United States in July

Previous : -0.70 Forecast : -0.30

金银石油

美元

Published Value -1.10

20:30:04

Seasonally adjusted changes in non-farm payrolls in the United States for July

Previous : 14.70 Forecast : 11

金银石油

美元

Published Value 7.30

20:30:03

Changes in non-farm payrolls of private enterprises in the United States in July

Previous : 7.40 Forecast : 10

金银石油

美元

Published Value 8.30

20:29:51

Saiwei Microelectronics' MEMS silicon crystal oscillator has passed customer verification and has begun trial production. (1) Saiwei Microelectronics announced that a MEMS silicon crystal oscillator manufactured by its controlling subsidiary, Selex Beijing, has passed customer verification. (2) Selex Beijing has received a customer purchase order and has begun small-batch trial production of the first batch of 8-inch wafers.

20:29:25

The Indian government has announced that 5,841 metric tons of sugar will be exported from India to the EU under the tariff rate quota for 2025-2026.

20:26:50

OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase on Sunday, with final output likely to be 548,000 bpd or lower, sources said.

20:25:41

U.S. Trade Representative Greer: The Swiss issue is challenging. Switzerland ships a lot of medicine to us. The talks with Switzerland did not result in an agreement.

20:25:41

Mexico's Manufacturing Confidence Index remains below the boom-bust line for five consecutive months. (1) Mexico's manufacturing business confidence index rose slightly to 49.4 in July (revised down to 49.2 in June), remaining below the 50-point mark for the fifth consecutive month. (2) Investment intentions improved slightly to 38.2, while the assessment of the overall national situation rose slightly to 48.6. (3) Businesses' assessment of the current situation fell to 51.1, while future outlook expectations dipped slightly to 56.6. The domestic economic confidence index dipped slightly to 52.5.

20:25:39

Silver Forecast: 50-day moving average support is under attention, non-farm payroll data becomes the key Details>

20:24:24

[Refined copper tariff exemption, why did U.S. copper futures make a "shocking reversal"? ] ⑴ After experiencing a record single-day plunge, U.S. copper futures prices stabilized on Friday. ⑵ U.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced that refined copper would be excluded from the 50% import tariff. ⑶ Although copper prices plummeted 22% on Thursday due to this news, September copper futures prices rebounded 0.8% to $4.391 per pound on Friday. ⑷ London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark three-month copper fell 0.2% to $9,592 per ton. ⑸ Inventories in LME-registered warehouses continued to climb, with inventories doubling to 127,500 tons in July, a three-month high. ⑹ Despite this, traders pointed out that even with the price drop, Comex copper futures still have a premium of hundreds of dollars relative to LME prices, which limits large-scale outflows of U.S. inventories in the short term.

20:23:08

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: We have heard the Russian statement, and if this is a signal that they are seriously prepared to end the conflict with dignity and establish a real and lasting peace, and not just trying to buy more time for the conflict and postpone sanctions, then Ukraine once again confirms its readiness for a meeting at the leadership level.

20:22:51

U.S. Trade Representative Greer: Trade deficit determines tariff rate

20:22:41

[People's Bank of China: Focus on Implementing Key Tasks in Building a Digital Central Bank] On August 1, the People's Bank of China held a work conference for the second half of 2025 and a meeting to promote the regular and long-term implementation of central inspection and rectification work. Focus on implementing key tasks in building a digital central bank. Build a secure and efficient cross-border payment system. Promote the interconnection and interoperability of fast payment systems in an orderly manner. Build a comprehensive protection network for the governance of "capital chains" involved in fraud and gambling. Improve cash services and management. Strengthen the construction and promotion of digital RMB infrastructure. Accelerate the construction of national treasury projects to ensure the smooth and orderly operation of treasury operations. Solidly carry out all aspects of the fifth round of anti-money laundering assessments.

20:22:03

The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a 5.9 magnitude earthquake occurred at 19:57 on August 1st in the offshore waters off the east coast of Kamchatka (51.80 degrees north latitude, 160.05 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.

20:18:25

[Before the release of the non-farm payrolls, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 41%] According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 59.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 41.0%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 36.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 47.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 15.8%.

20:15:51

[The "Measures for the Administration of Finished Oil Circulation" will be implemented on September 1st] The reporter learned from the Ministry of Commerce on the 1st that the Ministry of Commerce recently issued the "Measures for the Administration of Finished Oil Circulation", which will be implemented on September 1st, 2025. The Measures consist of six chapters and 44 articles. In terms of filing management and business qualification licensing, it stipulates the filing rules, filing implementation, filing changes and filing receipt cancellation for wholesale and warehousing enterprises, retail business qualification licensing departments, retail licensing conditions, license application materials, licensing procedures and time limits, license change matters and fee regulations; in terms of standardizing business operations, it puts forward requirements for finished oil business enterprises to operate in accordance with the law, improve management systems, and report purchase and sales data, and clarifies the business norms for enterprises in new construction, renovation and expansion, closure, oil purchase and sales, and label use; in terms of supervision and management, it puts forward management requirements for local governments to establish enterprise directories, compile retail system plans, conduct daily inspections, annual inspections, digital supervision and hierarchical supervision; in terms of legal responsibilities, it stipulates situations such as refusal to file and revocation of filing receipts, refusal to grant licenses, revocation of licenses, cancellation of licenses, administrative penalties, etc., and clarifies supervision and management responsibilities. (Xinhua News Agency)

20:13:40

OpenAI plans to secure $40 billion in funding by 2025. The company's annual revenue is $13 billion, up from $10 billion in June.

20:12:02

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,280.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $1,281.57/ounce, down 1.86% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,288.3/ounce, down 0.83% on the day.

20:11:51

[People's Bank of China: Deepen the reform of trade foreign exchange business management and actively promote the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing] On August 1, the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025 and a meeting to promote the normal and long-term promotion of the central inspection and rectification work. Promote the construction of the "science and technology board" in the bond market and the use of risk-sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and expand the issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds. Improve the institutional framework of financial markets and financial infrastructure, and accelerate the formulation and revision of bill laws, corporate bond management regulations, etc. Deepen the reform of trade foreign exchange business management and actively promote the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing. Deepen multilateral and bilateral international monetary and financial cooperation. Deepen participation in global financial governance, actively promote global macroeconomic policy coordination, participate in the formulation of international financial rules, continue to promote the reform of the International Monetary Fund's quota, and improve the governance structure of international financial organizations.

20:11:15

The "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Financial Infrastructure" were reviewed and approved at the 9th executive meeting of the People's Bank of China on May 23, 2025, and will come into effect on October 1, 2025.

20:10:55

[People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission: According to the requirements of building a unified large market, prudently carry out the work of establishing new financial infrastructure] The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Measures for the Supervision and Administration of Financial Infrastructure". Financial infrastructure management departments should strengthen planning guidance, promote the orderly interconnection and interoperability of financial infrastructure in accordance with the unified deployment of building a modern infrastructure system, and continuously optimize the layout of financial infrastructure in accordance with the principles of safety and efficiency, enhance the overall quality, strengthen the construction of the financial infrastructure governance system, and urge financial infrastructure operating institutions to obey the overall situation and prioritize the maintenance of public interests. Further improve governance, improve operational efficiency and service levels, prevent excessive pursuit of profits and risk-taking, and promote both serving the market and supporting supervision. According to the requirements of building a unified large market, prudently carry out the work of establishing new financial infrastructure, and maintain absolute state control over financial infrastructure that involves national financial security and has strong spillover effects.

20:10:29

Trump: Dissent within the Federal Reserve Board is strong and will only intensify

20:10:14

[People's Bank of China: Optimize the integrated domestic and foreign currency fund pool and the management policy for overseas listing of domestic enterprises] On August 1, the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025 and a meeting to promote the normal and long-term central inspection and rectification work. Promote the internationalization of the RMB steadily, prudently and solidly. Accelerate the expansion of the use of RMB under trade. Further enhance the financing currency function of the RMB, optimize the integrated domestic and foreign currency fund pool and the management policy for overseas listing of domestic enterprises. Develop the RMB offshore market and promote the formation of a stable liquidity supply channel with a full range of maturities. Strengthen policy support and performance management of clearing banks, and accelerate the improvement of the layout of RMB clearing banks.

20:09:51

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Delaying action could lead to the risk of a worsening labor market and further slowing economic growth. I remain committed to working with my colleagues to ensure the appropriate positioning of monetary policy.

20:09:32

Fed Governor Bowman: Recognizes and understands that other FOMC members may have different views

20:09:21

Fed Governor Bowman: I think we should start to pay more attention to the risks of the employment task. If demand conditions do not improve, companies may have no choice but to start laying off employees.

20:08:56

[People's Bank of China: Deepen the reform of trade foreign exchange business management and actively promote the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing] On August 1, the People's Bank of China held a work meeting for the second half of 2025 and a meeting to promote the normal and long-term promotion of the central inspection and rectification work. Promote the construction of the "science and technology board" in the bond market and the use of risk-sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and expand the issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds. Improve the institutional framework of financial markets and financial infrastructure, and accelerate the formulation and revision of bill laws, corporate bond management regulations, etc. Deepen the reform of trade foreign exchange business management and actively promote the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing. Deepen multilateral and bilateral international monetary and financial cooperation. Deepen participation in global financial governance, actively promote global macroeconomic policy coordination, participate in the formulation of international financial rules, continue to promote the reform of the International Monetary Fund's quota, and improve the governance structure of international financial organizations.

20:08:25

Fed Governor Waller: I fully respect the views of my FOMC colleagues who believe we need to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, but this is too cautious

20:06:02

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia has produced the first batch of the "Hazel" missile system and has already been deployed to the military. (Sputnik)

20:02:50

[Major Disagreement! Why Did Two of the Fed's Hawkish Officials Sudden U-turn?] ⑴ Fed officials Waller and Bowman successively expressed views that diverged from their previous hawkish stances. ⑵ Waller stated that he believed a 25 basis point cut in the policy rate was appropriate and that monetary policy should now be closer to neutral rather than restrictive. ⑶ While acknowledging that the job market appears strong on the surface, other data suggest that downside risks to the labor market are increasing. ⑷ Bowman similarly believed that with weakening economic growth and labor market dynamism, it was time to gradually shift the policy stance toward neutrality. ⑸ She believed that the inflationary shock from tariffs was one-off, and therefore the Fed should prioritize risks to its employment mandate. ⑹ Both officials stated that delaying action could lead to a deterioration in the labor market and a further slowdown in economic growth. ⑺ Their comments contrasted sharply with the Fed's previous "wait-and-see" approach, suggesting significant internal disagreement over the future direction of monetary policy.

20:02:28

Why are electricity prices in Northern Europe continuing to fall amid heavy rain and strong winds? ⑴ Nordic forward electricity prices fell on Friday, with both major contracts facing weekly declines due to forecasts of wet and windy weather. ⑵ LSEG power analysts stated that the forecast suggests even wetter and windier weather than yesterday. ⑶ The first-quarter Nordic electricity contract fell to €48.75/MWh, a 1.5% decrease for the week. ⑷ The previous-year contract fell to €39.6/MWh, ending a two-week winning streak. ⑸ Data shows that available hydropower reserves in Northern Europe for the next 15 days are 4.41 TWh above normal, compared to 2.08 TWh on Thursday. ⑹ Abundant hydropower resources, combined with rainy and windy weather brought by a low pressure system, are exerting downward pressure on electricity prices in Northern Europe. ⑺ LSEG meteorologists predict that low pressure activity will persist over the weekend and early next week, bringing above-normal rainfall. ⑻ It is expected that the weather will turn dry in the second half of next week and the week after that, with rainfall close to normal levels.

20:01:57

Fed's Bowman: I will continue to work with my colleagues to ensure the appropriate positioning of monetary policy

20:01:45

Fed's Bowman: Acknowledge and understand that other FOMC members may hold different views

20:01:43

Fed's Bowman: Delaying action could lead to a worsening labor market and slower economic growth

20:01:36

Fed's Bowman: We believe that gradually adjusting the policy interest rate to neutral will help maintain the labor market close to full employment and ensure the smooth achievement of the dual mandate goals

20:01:30

Fed's Bowman: If demand conditions don't improve, businesses may have no choice but to start laying off workers

20:01:25

Fed's Bowman: I think we should start paying more attention to the risks to the employment task

20:01:19

Fed's Bowman: I think the upside risks to price stability have decreased because I am more confident that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation.

20:01:12

Fed's Bowman: This action will proactively hedge the risks of further economic weakness and damage to the labor market

20:01:05

Fed's Bowman: With economic growth slowing and labor market activity weakening, I believe it is appropriate to begin gradually shifting the moderately restrictive policy stance toward a neutral environment.

20:00:56

Fed's Waller: We see no reason to maintain current policy rate levels to avoid a sudden downturn in the labor market

20:00:50

Fed's Waller: I fully respect my colleagues' views on the Federal Open Market Committee. They think we need to take a "wait-and-see" approach, but this is too cautious.

20:00:43

Fed's Waller: Although the job market looks good on the surface, other data show that downside risks to the labor market have increased

20:00:38

Fed's Waller: A wealth of data suggests monetary policy should now be closer to neutral, not restrictive

20:00:29

Fed's Waller: Tariffs are a one-time price event and policymakers should "consider them carefully" as long as inflation expectations remain stable.

20:00:22

Fed's Waller: I dissent because I conclude that a 25 basis point cut in the policy rate is the appropriate policy stance

20:00:10

Brazil's unadjusted annual rate of industrial output in June

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : -0.60%

Published Value -1.30%

20:00:04

Brazil's seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate for June

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : 0.40%

Published Value 0.10%

20:00:02

my country's esports industry revenue reached 12.761 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. On August 1, Zhang Yijun, First Vice Chairman of the China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association, released the "China Esports Industry Report, January-June 2025" at the 2025 Global Esports Conference. The report shows that China's esports industry revenue reached 12.761 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Livestreaming revenue accounted for the largest portion of the esports industry's revenue, at 80.38%. Revenue from tournaments, clubs, and other sources combined accounted for 19.62%, maintaining a relatively stable revenue structure.

19:59:35

Global markets await the non-farm payrolls storm. What is Trump’s intention with tariffs? Details>

19:59:03

Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad: Brazil seeks to minimize impact of U.S. tariff hikes

19:49:18

[Is the wind changing? The U.S. job market may slow down in July] ⑴ According to a survey of economists, the U.S. labor market may have cooled in July. ⑵ Economists expect that about 100,000 new non-farm jobs were added in July, down from 147,000 in June. ⑶ In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. ⑷ These forecasts suggest that the growth momentum in the U.S. job market may be weakening. ⑸ This shift in expectations has added new variables to the market's discussion on the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. ⑹ The U.S. Department of Labor will release the July non-farm payroll report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. ⑺ The data will provide investors with key information to assess the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

19:47:53

Reserves Approach $700 Billion: What's the Secret Behind India's Strong Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth? (1) Data from the Reserve Bank of India show that as of July 25, India's foreign exchange reserves rose to $698.19 billion. (2) This figure represents a $2.7 billion increase from $695.49 billion the previous week. (3) Within the composition of foreign exchange reserves, foreign currency assets increased from $587.61 billion to $588.93 billion. (4) Gold reserves also increased, rising from $84.5 billion to $85.7 billion. (5) In addition, reserve positions in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and the International Monetary Fund also increased. (6) The growth in reserves reflects India's stable economy and strong foreign exchange inflows. (7) With foreign exchange reserves approaching the critical $700 billion mark, India's resilience to external risks is strengthening.

19:47:41

Even the Model Y facelift can't save Tesla's European sales? (1) Despite the Model Y facelift, Tesla's sales registrations in several major European markets still saw a significant decline in July. (2) Year-on-year registrations in Sweden, Denmark, France, and the Netherlands dropped by 86%, 52%, 27%, and 62%, respectively. (3) In stark contrast, registrations in Norway and Spain bucked the trend, increasing by 83% and 27%, respectively. (4) In Norway in particular, Model Y sales surged more than fourfold, driven by Tesla's zero-interest financing in the country. (5) Tesla CEO Elon Musk acknowledged that Europe's strict autonomous driving regulations have made sales more challenging and said the company could face "a few tough quarters." (6) He believes that once the company can offer the same autonomous driving experience in Europe as in the United States, sales will surge. (7) Tesla faces stiff competition from low-cost electric vehicle rivals. For example, BYD's sales in Spain in July were nearly eight times higher than the same period last year.

19:46:26

Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Disappointed with the US tariff increase. Canada remains committed to the USMCA

19:37:33

Malaysia's July SPPOMA Malaysian Palm Oil production Forecast - Full Month

Previous : -0.65% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.07%

19:21:27

[Trade War Escalates, Global Markets "Stalled"?] ⑴ Trump's new round of tariffs has caused significant turmoil in global markets. ⑵ Global stock markets fell in response, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index falling over 1% in early trading, marking its biggest weekly drop since April. ⑶ US stock index futures also fell across the board, with Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures both falling over 1%. ⑷ The new tariffs target dozens of trading partners, imposing hefty tariffs of 35%, 50%, 25%, and 39% on Canada, Brazil, India, and Switzerland, respectively. ⑸ Although the market has adjusted to Trump's tariff threats, the broad scope and high rates of these tariffs have exacerbated concerns about slowing global economic growth. ⑹ Capital Economics indicates that the new tariffs will raise the average effective US tariff rate from 2.3% last year to 18%. ⑺ Governments around the world are actively seeking negotiations with the United States in the hope of obtaining more favorable tariff terms, but analysts generally believe that there will be no real winner in the trade conflict and the overall impact will be negative.

19:09:50

The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across China as of August 1st

Previous : 223.89 Forecast : -

Published Value 225.39

19:09:33

The operating rates of soybean crushing at major oil mills across China as of August 1st

Previous : 62.94% Forecast : -

Published Value 63.36%

19:09:11

The annual rate of total new car sales in South Africa in July

Previous : 18.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 15.60%

19:09:03

The total volume of new car sales in South Africa in July

Previous : 47294 Forecast : -

Published Value 51383

19:02:36

With a slowing economy and stubborn inflation, is an August rate cut by the Bank of Mexico a foregone conclusion? ⑴ A Reuters poll shows that the Bank of Mexico is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75% on August 7. ⑵ If the forecast comes true, this would be the bank's tenth rate cut since the start of its easing cycle in March last year, bringing the rate to its lowest level since June 2022. ⑶ Although inflation in Mexico slowed in the first half of the year, core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained stubbornly high. ⑷ Deutsche Bank analysts noted that while most policymakers are likely to support a rate cut due to declining overall inflation, some officials have expressed concerns about the stickiness of core inflation. ⑸ The Bank of Mexico's rate cut comes as Trump agreed to maintain a 90-day tariff suspension on Mexican goods to allow for trade negotiations. ⑹ In addition, slower-than-expected economic growth in Mexico also supports the central bank's rate cut. ⑺ Although a rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion, the mixed outlook for inflation and economic growth may prompt the central bank to adopt a more cautious strategy of a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points.

19:00:39

Palm oil prices fall for two consecutive weeks, but bears should be cautious! Tariff cuts and a depreciating ringgit may be brewing a rebound. Details>

18:57:09

Nymex US crude oil futures fell 1.04% to $68.54 per barrel

18:52:38

Spot gold just broke through the $3,300.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,300.64/ounce, up 0.33% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,352.20/ounce, up 0.11% on the day.

18:52:19

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.01% to $71.06 per barrel.

18:40:39

[Amazon's earnings report was disappointing, dashing hopes for a Fed rate cut?] ⑴ Global markets were shrouded in a gloomy cloud this Friday. ⑵ Amazon's share price plummeted 7% overnight after its poor earnings report. Previously, although Apple exceeded expectations, pharmaceutical stocks fell across the board due to Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑶ In addition, Trump's new tariff policy arrived as expected, imposing high tariffs on countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Switzerland, causing unrest in global markets. ⑷ Trump's move also sparked concerns among European automakers, and Fitch Ratings has lowered its profit forecasts as a result. ⑸ Against this backdrop, expectations of a Fed rate cut weakened, and the US dollar index rose to a two-month high. ⑹ The market is currently awaiting the July jobs report, which is expected to slow job growth to 110,000 and the unemployment rate to 4.2%. ⑺ If the jobs data is strong, hopes for a Fed rate cut in September may be completely dashed, further dampening market sentiment.

18:39:01

Toyota's latest plan is to produce about 10 million vehicles worldwide by 2025, up from its previous plan of about 9.9 million. (Nikkei)

18:37:18

[Oversupply alarms sound, why does the Asian fuel oil market continue to weaken?] ⑴ The Asian Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) market continued to weaken, with the high-sulfur to low-sulfur price gap narrowing. ⑵ The Singapore VLSFO spot premium fell to $1 per ton for mid-August shipment, and spot quotes for late August also generally weakened. ⑶ The main reason for the market weakness is supply pressure. ⑷ Asia is expected to receive a large number of arbitrage cargoes in August, resulting in an ample market supply. ⑸ In addition, the weakness in the low-sulfur fuel oil market also affected the high-sulfur to low-sulfur price gap. ⑹ LSEG data shows that the gap closed at $82 per ton on Friday, narrowing from the previous week. ⑺ Despite a decline in fuel oil inventories, with data from a Dutch consultancy showing that fuel oil inventories in the ARA region fell 1.7% week-on-week to 980,000 tons, the outlook for ample supply continued to dominate market sentiment. ⑻ Uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric and market concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and oil demand also put pressure on oil prices.

18:35:32

Trump: Fed should take control if Powell continues to refuse to cut rates

18:30:40

Trump's Trade Stick: A "Butterfly Effect" in the Oil Market? ⑴ Trump's demand that India stop importing Russian oil could threaten billions of dollars in Russian revenue. ⑵ India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022, purchasing up to 2 million barrels per day, representing 2% of global supply. ⑶ Given the critical importance of the Indian route to Russia, JPMorgan analysts believe that if it is blocked, Russia may retaliate by shutting down the CPC pipeline. ⑷ The pipeline carries oil from Western oil companies to the market, and its closure would have a negative impact on the West. ⑸ Furthermore, if India halts purchases, Russia will need to store oil on tankers and offer deeper discounts to new buyers, potentially leading to a gradual decline in its oil production. ⑹ JPMorgan notes that excluding the world's second-largest oil exporter from the global market is unfeasible, as this could cause oil prices to soar. ⑺ A simultaneous disruption of the CPC pipeline and the Indian oil route would create a supply gap of 3.5 million barrels per day, representing 3.5% of global supply. (Refinitiv)

18:30:02

There are mixed signals before the release of non-farm payroll data. Will the price of gold return to above $3,300 per ounce or fall further? Details>

18:28:04

[A bolt from the blue! Trump's tariffs target Switzerland, could the manufacturing industry face its "darkest hour"?] ⑴ Trump announced a high tariff of 39% on Swiss imports, a move that shocked the Swiss government and manufacturers. ⑵ This tax rate is much higher than the 15% tax rate on most EU imports. ⑶ The head of Swissmem, the Swiss Manufacturers Association, said that this decision lacks a rational basis and will threaten tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the country. ⑷ Although Switzerland is the seventh largest investor in the United States, exporting approximately $80 billion worth of goods to the United States last year, its core export industries, such as watches, jewelry, and chocolate, will be severely impacted. ⑸ It is worth noting that Switzerland's pharmaceutical industry is temporarily exempt from the 39% tariff, but it still faces pressure from the United States to lower drug prices. ⑹ The Swiss government has stated that it will continue to work hard to find a solution through negotiations. ⑺ However, the new tariffs will take effect on August 7, leaving little time for negotiations between the two sides.

18:26:29

Tesla's sales in Spain are impressive. ⑴ Tesla's sales figures in Spain are impressive. ⑵ The latest data from industry organization ANFAC shows that Tesla sold 702 new vehicles in the country in July, a 27% year-on-year surge. ⑶ This growth is far lower than the overall increase in electrified vehicle sales in Spain, which surged 155% year-on-year in July. ⑷ In the first seven months of 2025, Tesla's sales in Spain increased by 1.1% compared to the same period last year, while overall electrified vehicle sales surged by 93% during the same period. ⑸ Although Tesla's sales have increased, its growth rate has significantly lagged behind the explosive growth of the overall electrified vehicle market. ⑹ This discrepancy suggests that despite the huge potential of the electric vehicle market, Tesla is facing increasing competition from other electric and hybrid vehicle brands. ⑺ The future of the market may be more diversified, rather than dominated by a single brand.

6

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