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2026-07-17 Friday

2026-07-19

20:34:16

US June Import Price Index (Annual Rate)

Previous : 6.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 7.10

Previous

20:33:18

US June Export Price Index Annual Rate

Previous : 11.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 10.60

Previous

20:33:16

US June Export Price Index Annual Rate

Previous : 11.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 10.60

Previous

20:33:14

Foreign investors made net purchases of Canadian securities in May (CAD 100 million).

Previous : 469.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 79

Previous

20:33:13

US building permits (monthly rate) - preliminary reading for June

Previous : -0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value -3%

Previous

20:32:20

US June Building Permits (Annualized Total, in Thousands)

Previous : 141 Forecast : 140

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 136.70

Previous

20:32:19

Canadian investors made net purchases of foreign securities in May (CAD 100 million).

Previous : -113.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 222.70

Previous

20:32:17

US June Export Price Index (MoM)

Previous : 1.30% Forecast : -0.40%

Published Value -0.60%

Previous

20:32:15

US June Housing Starts Annualized Monthly Rate

Previous : -15.40% Forecast : 11.50%

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 19%

Previous

20:32:14

US Housing Starts in June (Annualized Rate, in Thousands)

Previous : 117.70 Forecast : 131

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 142.70

Previous

20:32:12

US June Import Price Index (MoM)

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : -0.70%

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

20:08:14

[Indian Ships Become Mainstay of Strait of Hormuz Transit, Seafarer Safety Raises Alarm Amid US-Iran Standoff] ⑴ Since the brief ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran in June, ships destined for India have accounted for approximately 20% of transit applications in the Strait of Hormuz, almost on par with China, while other Asian regions and routes within the Gulf account for the remaining major share. ⑵ However, with the US launching a new round of attacks, Iran announcing the closure of the strait and establishing the Persian Gulf Straits Authority to implement access control, the passage order of this vital waterway has been completely reshaped by geopolitical conflict. Iran has clearly stated that as long as the US attacks continue, not a single drop of oil or gas will be transported out through this waterway. ⑶ In recent days, Indian seafarers have been injured in attacks in the surrounding area. New Delhi has urgently ordered ship owners and agents to prohibit the deployment of their own crew members to routes that require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the employment and safety of more than 300,000 Indian seafarers worldwide. (4) The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claims sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran and accuses the United States of creating insecurity, while the U.S. Central Command emphasizes that the Strait and surrounding waters remain free and open, except for ships restricted by its steel blockade. This conflicting stance has created extreme ambiguity regarding the actual rules of navigation. (5) From a shipping psychology perspective, soaring insurance rates and increased shipowner avoidance will substantially increase the landed costs of goods destined for India. Close attention needs to be paid to the economic viability of alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope, and whether the Indian government will extend its ban on seafarer deployments to a wider area.

20:08:13

[Global Central Bank Super Week Approaching: ECB Holds Rates Steady, US-Iran Conflict Continues to Disrupt Markets] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady at 2.25% at its policy meeting next Thursday. Despite oil prices rising by about 20% since July, the unexpected slowdown in Eurozone inflation in June has led the market to bet on a probability of no change exceeding 80%. ⑵ The market has already priced in further tightening of over 40 basis points before the end of the year. The ECB statement and President Lagarde's press conference will be key windows guiding expectations. The preliminary July consumer confidence and PMI data released on the same day will also provide clues about the economic climate. ⑶ US data is relatively light, with only weekly initial jobless claims and the preliminary July S&P PMI worth noting. Federal Reserve officials have entered a pre-meeting quiet period, and the market will mainly rely on data to interpret events before the FOMC decision at the end of July. ⑷ The UK will welcome its new Prime Minister next Monday. Employment and inflation data will dominate the pound's trading logic. These indicators are crucial to the Bank of England's interest rate path, and retail sales and the preliminary PMI will also verify economic resilience. (5) Japan will be closed next Monday, and the week's core trade, CPI, and PMI data will test the struggle between domestic demand and imported inflation. Commodity currency countries will see a flurry of data releases, including New Zealand's CPI, Australian employment, and Canadian retail sales inflation, putting central bank policy expectations under multiple scrutiny.

20:02:13

Brazil's May IBC-BR Economic Activity Index (month-on-month)

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : 0%

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

19:42:14

[Extreme Rainstorms Become the New Normal in the US, Infrastructure Fails to Withstand Climate Impact] ⑴ Climate experts point out that global warming is driving increasingly frequent extreme rainfall events in the United States. The aftermath of last year's Texas summer camp tragedy is still fresh, and this month, multiple locations from Alaska to New York have broken rainfall records again, resulting in deadly flash floods. ⑵ Atmospheric warming leads to increased evaporation and higher water vapor content, creating a greenhouse effect and acting as storm fuel. Combined with the hard soil of hilly areas and impermeable urban surfaces, runoff accumulation far exceeds the capacity of drainage systems. ⑶ However, local governments are struggling to cope. Some cities still rely on century-old pipe networks and continue to allow development in floodplains despite political resistance. In the Houston area, over 6,000 homes have been removed from century-old floodplain maps through appeals to circumvent insurance and building restrictions. ⑷ Federal-level resilient infrastructure funding was once halted but later reinstated by court order, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between the executive and judicial branches on climate adaptation issues. The term "climate change" itself is seen as a business obstacle in some states, further hindering substantive upgrades. (5) Although the concept of sponge city has been adopted by some cities, the transformation of permeable pavement and rainwater parks still requires a long period of time. At present, the primary goal of emergency response is still the evacuation of people. However, the deep-seated contradiction between planning and infrastructure is unlikely to dissipate with the end of the rainy season.

19:32:13

India's foreign exchange reserves (USD billion) for the week ending July 6

Previous : 6741.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 6751.60

Previous

19:02:14

Brazil's July IGP-10 inflation index month-on-month rate

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -0.99%

Published Value -1.13%

Previous

18:56:13

[Wang Yi Meets with Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration, Oreshkin] On July 17, 2026, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration, in Shanghai. Oreshkin was in China to attend the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Wang Yi stated that China and Russia are comprehensive strategic cooperative partners for a new era, and the two sides have always understood and supported each other in international and regional affairs. Russia's accession to the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization reflects the high level of China-Russia relations and he believes it will contribute to the organization's future development. President Xi Jinping comprehensively and systematically expounded on China's concepts and propositions at the opening ceremony of the conference, emphasizing that artificial intelligence should be beneficial to all mankind, reflecting the general expectations of the international community. China is willing to work with Russia to promote the development of artificial intelligence in a healthier, safer, and more orderly direction through joint consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits, focusing on enhancing the capacity building of the Global South, and making artificial intelligence an important increment in the comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Russia for a new era. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

18:14:13

[Brazilian Beef Exports Slump, Profit Pressure Forces Companies to Cut Production and Layoffs] ⑴ After setting export and revenue records in 2025, the Brazilian beef industry faces a significant slowdown at the start of 2026. Weak international demand, increased trade barriers from major buyers, and domestic operational challenges are all squeezing the profit margins of slaughtering and processing companies. ⑵ Purchases from core export markets have declined significantly due to quota adjustments and the risk of high tariffs. Meanwhile, the EU faces the risk of suspending exports starting in September. The simultaneous contraction of these two traditional buyers weakens Brazil's pricing power overseas. ⑶ The president of the Brazilian Meat Exporters Association admitted that the traditional mechanism of relying on external demand to balance domestic prices has failed. Currently, most slaughterhouses are operating at a loss, forcing companies to take measures such as mass leave, reduced slaughter rates, personnel restructuring, and even layoffs to control costs. (4) Despite short-term pressure, Brazil remains the world's largest beef producer. The proportion of cows slaughtered in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, reflecting improved livestock productivity. Furthermore, industry forecasts predict a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per kilogram of beef by 2050, ensuring its long-term competitiveness remains unshaken. (5) Export difficulties coupled with domestic consumption absorbing 70% of production mean that a sluggish international market will directly drag down domestic price support. A short-term industry adjustment period is inevitable. Going forward, attention should be paid to the procurement policies of major trading partners and the progress of market access negotiations.

18:12:12

[Yemen in Crisis: Bab el-Mandeb Strait May Become a Second Battlefield, Global Shipping Lifeline Faces Double Blockade] ⑴ Iran has informed the Houthi rebels to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in retaliation for a potential US attack on its power infrastructure. If implemented, this would open a second maritime front, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, to disrupt global trade. ⑵ Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has already plummeted due to the US-Iran confrontation, and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly this week. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes simultaneously, maritime transport between Asia and Europe will be reduced to a long-distance route around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transport time and fuel costs. ⑶ Saudi Arabia has successfully bypassed the Strait of Hormuz by transporting crude oil from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline. However, this flow now must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach Asian markets, and the security of this vital waterway directly determines the effectiveness of alternative routes. (4) From late 2023 to early 2025, the Houthi rebels launched over a hundred missile and drone attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, forcing container shipping routes to largely detour around Africa. Egypt's Suez Canal toll revenue plummeted by over 60%. If the operation escalates again, the impact will be even more profound. (5) Analysts point out that the Houthi rebels possess the missile and drone capabilities to implement a blockade, and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's personnel in Yemen may be involved in the operation. However, whether the organization will ultimately execute the orders remains uncertain, and any substantial blockade could provoke a broader military response. (6) Simultaneous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would paralyze approximately 20% of global oil trade and a significant proportion of liquefied natural gas and container cargo transportation. Economists warn that oil prices could experience an extreme surge due to supply panic, directly impacting fuel imports and consumer goods prices in emerging Asian economies.

18:00:12

[Alternative Pipelines Fails to Solve the Immediate Crisis; Iran Declares "No One Can Export"] ⑴ As the confrontation between the US and Iran escalates again in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil-producing countries are accelerating their search for alternative export routes. However, the existing bypass pipelines have a maximum capacity of only a few million barrels per day, far from enough to fill the gap in normal strait traffic. ⑵ Iran has clearly included alternative energy infrastructure in the Gulf region within its deterrent scope. The Saudi East-West Pipeline and the UAE Abu Dhabi oil pipeline both face potential threats. Analysts warn that Tehran's intention is clear: either all oil-producing countries can export, or none of them can. ⑶ The resumption of traffic brought about by the brief ceasefire in June has been completely reversed. Current strait traffic has plummeted. The US has reinstated its blockade of Iranian ports and revoked sanctions waivers, while Iran is demonstrating its actual control over the chokepoint through attacks on warships, drone strikes, and the laying of mines. (4) New pipeline projects are time-consuming and costly. Even after commissioning, they may face new risks in the Babalmandab Strait in the Red Sea, where the Houthi rebels in Yemen have the capability to launch attacks. Detouring around the Cape of Good Hope will significantly increase shipping costs and time. (5) The UAE is actively expanding its ports and container terminals using existing alternative pipeline capacity on its east coast, and Saudi Arabia also has some redundancy in its detouring routes. However, other oil-producing countries that rely on the strait, such as Iraq and Kuwait, have almost no backup plans, leading to a structural reshaping of the regional energy export landscape. (6) Iran is creating transportation bottlenecks to increase the economic cost of US military strikes, while Gulf oil-producing countries are caught in a dilemma between pipeline expansion and shipping route security. In the short term, the struggle for passage through the strait will continue to dominate oil price trends, and neither side can gain an absolute advantage at an unequal cost.

17:56:16

[Middle East benchmark crude oil prices rose this week, with a sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz traffic exacerbating supply anxieties] ⑴ Middle East benchmark crude oils Oman, Dubai, and Murban all recorded weekly gains, with geopolitical premiums once again dominating pricing logic. Escalating conflict between the US and Iran continues to suppress risk appetite. ⑵ On Friday, the Dubai and Oman spot discounts narrowed further, while the Murban premium remained largely stable. Spot market buying showed some resilience amid rising supply disruption probabilities, and high refinery profits also provided a floor for prices. ⑶ Iran announced a new round of strikes against US facilities in the Middle East on Friday, including Syria in its direct attack range for the first time. It also reportedly requested the Houthi rebels to be prepared to blockade the Red Sea oil route, further escalating the threat level to energy transport routes. ⑷ Ship tracking data showed that only three commodity tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily traffic volume since May. Most vessels chose to stop or turn back, reflecting extreme caution among shipowners and charterers regarding safety. (5) The head of the International Energy Agency publicly warned that if the United States and Iran fail to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in a timely manner, global energy security will face real risks. This statement further strengthened market expectations of a widening supply gap.

17:38:12

[Indian Government Bond Auction Sees Strong Subscription; Central Bank Partial Allocation Highlights Resilient Demand] ⑴ The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced the results of its government bond auction on Friday, showing that bonds maturing in 2029 received 111 bids, totaling approximately 259.2 billion rupees. The RBI ultimately accepted 62 bids, with a transaction value of approximately 109.96 billion rupees. ⑵ In this maturity auction, the RBI partially allocated 11 bids, representing an allocation ratio of approximately 28.2%, indicating that regulators actively controlled the scale of issuance in an oversubscribed environment. ⑶ Bonds maturing in 2033 received 200 bids, totaling approximately 312.94 billion rupees. The RBI accepted 40 bids, with a transaction value of approximately 109.9 billion rupees, and partially allocated 19 bids, representing an allocation ratio of approximately 86%. (4) A total of 225 bids were received for the 2055 long-term bonds, with a subscription amount of approximately 253.17 billion rupees. The central bank accepted 105 bids, with a transaction amount of approximately 99.88 billion rupees. Partial allocation was implemented for 12 bids, with an allocation ratio of approximately 33.9%. (5) Overall, all maturities were oversubscribed, with particularly strong demand for long-term bonds. The central bank balanced market absorption capacity and yield curve management objectives through differentiated allocation strategies, and the ample liquidity in the Indian bond market was confirmed in the auction.

17:36:12

[Refining Bottlenecks Become a Major Weakness for Oil Prices; Gasoline Fever Remains Unabated, Trump's Efforts Unable to Relieve It] ⑴ Despite the ongoing conflict with Iran, the price of benchmark crude oil in the United States has only risen by about 20% compared to pre-war levels, but gasoline prices have surged by over 30%, with crack spreads reaching a four-year high, indicating that the relative calm in the crude oil market has not translated into end-consumer demand. ⑵ The buffer in the crude oil market mainly comes from the large-scale release of global strategic reserves, but these measures are almost ineffective in the refined oil sector because the reserves are primarily released in crude oil rather than fuel. ⑶ Global refining capacity has suffered a double blow—Middle Eastern refineries are hampered by blocked passage through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged facilities, while over a quarter of Russia's capacity has been taken offline due to drone attacks, leading to a significant year-on-year decline in global refining volume in the second quarter. ⑷ As a major supplier of seaborne diesel, Russia has implemented an export ban and has unusually shifted to importing gasoline, further distorting the regional supply and demand pattern. US refineries may reduce gasoline production driven by diesel profits unless gasoline prices rise in tandem. (5) Global gasoline inventories are below the five-year average and the deficit is expected to widen, while demand remains resilient due to price protection policies such as tax cuts and subsidies implemented by many governments. This supply-demand mismatch makes the fuel market far tighter than the crude oil market. (6) Domestic factors in the United States are also contributing to the situation. Since actual ethanol blending has reached its limit, refineries can only purchase expensive compliant quotas, significantly increasing the implied cost per gallon of gasoline. (7) Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the slower recovery of refining capacity compared to oil fields, the smaller size of fuel transport vessels leading to logistical delays, and the lack of strategic reserves of refined petroleum products in the United States all mean that the easing of gasoline prices will be a long process, and the pressure on end users will be difficult to eliminate in the short term.

17:34:13

[Oil Price Decline Coupled with Tech Boom: June Sees Largest Net Foreign Inflow into Asian Bond Markets in Seven Months] ⑴ Foreign investors made net purchases of approximately US$11.5 billion in bonds from Asian regions including South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and India in June, the largest monthly net purchase since November of last year, indicating a significant rebound in global capital's willingness to allocate assets to Asia. ⑵ Brent crude oil fell more than 20% from its four-year high last month, hitting a four-month low, significantly easing inflationary anxieties in major oil-importing countries. Although subsequent escalation of tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices back up, the improved sentiment at that time laid the foundation for attracting buying interest in the bond market. ⑶ The global artificial intelligence wave continues to support the Asian manufacturing sector, with factory activity in many countries expanding due to increased demand for technology products. Improved growth expectations in export-oriented economies have further strengthened foreign investors' confidence in fixed-income assets within the region. (4) Indonesia's bond market led the way with net inflows of approximately US$5.5 billion, reaching a near two-year high, primarily driven by investors' pursuit of higher yields. India's bond market recorded net purchases exceeding US$3 billion due to adjustments in capital gains tax exemptions, marking its strongest monthly performance in nearly nine years. (5) South Korea's bond market recorded net inflows eight times in seven consecutive months, while Malaysia also saw stable buying. However, Thailand's bond market experienced a slight net outflow, indicating regional divergence. Overall, foreign investment preference in Asian bond markets remains on an upward trend.

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