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2026-09-21 Monday

2026-09-22

15:12:17

Shanghai Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Silver (kg) - September 21

Previous : 9612 Forecast : -

Published Value 15935

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15:12:17

China Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Fuel Oil (tons) - September 21

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

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15:12:16

Shanghai Futures Exchange Daily Warehouse Receipts Changes - Gold (kg) - September 21

Previous : -12 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

14:55:56

[US-Iran Clash Ahead of UN General Assembly: Trump Threatens to Destroy Iran, Tehran Warns of Painful Retaliation] 1. Tensions between the US and Iran escalate ahead of the UN General Assembly. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's economy or purge its leadership if Tehran fails to reach an agreement. He told Fox News on Sunday that the only options were to "destroy Iran" or let its economy "rot," and said he was willing to meet with Iranian President Pezechzian during the General Assembly, but also indicated he was in "decision mode" regarding whether to destroy the country. 2. The Iranian military stated that intelligence indicates the US and its allies are preparing a new round of large-scale strikes and warned of "painful" retaliation in the Middle East. Iran stated that regional countries supporting such strikes would be considered parties to the conflict. Semi-official Tasnim quoted Khatam al-Anbia's central headquarters as saying that if the US makes a mistake, all its outposts and interests in the region will become targets of sustained, effective, and painful attacks. 3. The two sides have been at odds for seven months since the June memorandum broke down. A diplomatic delegation led by Pezehizian is expected to attend the UN General Assembly this week and meet with leaders from several countries. The US State Department issued a security alert, warning citizens to be vigilant about escalating tensions in the Middle East and to be aware of flight cancellations and airspace closures. This followed the Houthi rebels' claim on Saturday of missile and drone attacks on Riyadh, triggering the first air raid sirens since the conflict escalated in July; Saudi Arabia stated it had intercepted a ballistic missile without casualties or damage. 4. Despite escalating hostilities, oil prices have recently fallen as traders anticipate the resumption of energy transport from Saudi Arabia. International oil prices fell more than 2% in Asian trading on Monday. A report from Eurasia Group stated that even if oil transport via the Strait of Hormuz resumes, oil prices will remain high, with Brent crude expected to trade between $90 and $110 per barrel for the remainder of the year. 5. Tehran insists it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington fulfills its commitments from the June memorandum. The memorandum called for lifting the maritime blockade, easing sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and ceasing US military threats. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated that Iran must continue fighting and negotiating to defeat its enemies and will only pursue diplomacy if it gains the upper hand on the battlefield. Eurasia Group believes that the Iranian leadership will continue its defensive stance, maintaining control over shipping traffic through military proxies and tanker attacks in an attempt to force Washington to concede.

14:50:11

[Oil Prices Continue to Fall as Supply Concerns Ease] 1. On Monday, oil prices continued their decline as market concerns about supply disruptions eased. Crude oil retreated from recent highs above $100 per barrel, with the near-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract fluctuating below a key psychological level. US crude oil futures for November delivery are currently down nearly 2%, trading around $94.19 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures for November delivery are currently down 1.95%, trading around $101.83 per barrel. 2. ANZ research analysts stated that initial concerns about a prolonged disruption to Saudi oil pipelines are easing. Reports indicate that Riyadh expects the east-west pipeline to restore about half of its capacity within days. The 750-mile-long pipeline, which allows Saudi oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing Middle East conflict, was shut down earlier this month after a drone attack. 3. The market continues to assess the long-term impact of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia in Yemen. ANZ analysts believe that such attacks highlight the risk of future supply disruptions, and escalating regional conflict could further restrict Persian Gulf oil exports. 4. In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump said the US was in "decisive mode" regarding the conflict with Iran and warned that "big things" could happen in the near future. He said the question was whether and when to "bomb the whole country," adding that Iran "had better behave." He also added that he might be willing to meet with Iranian President Pezechzian this week during the UN General Assembly in New York.

14:40:25

[Soaring US Treasury yields weaken the appeal of dollar-denominated emerging market bonds, prompting emerging market investors to turn to local currency sovereign bonds] (1) Emerging market investors are currently still inclined to hold local currency sovereign bonds as soaring US Treasury yields weaken the appeal of dollar-denominated emerging market bonds. (2) This strategy is driven by attractive valuations and the potential for returns through carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding currencies and invest in high-yielding assets. (3) This preference is reflected in fund flows, holdings, and relative performance. Since the end of June, the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Index has outperformed the dollar-denominated bond index by more than 3 percentage points, on track for its largest quarterly lead since 2022. (4) Fund managers are also taking advantage of this divergence. A Bank of America survey of 38 global fixed income fund managers with a total of $444 billion in assets under management showed that 84% of respondents overweighted emerging market local currency bonds relative to hard currency bonds, compared to only 38% in August. The survey was conducted from September 4 to 9. (5) However, this investment strategy may still face challenges after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and hinted at further tightening of policy. If the US dollar strengthens again, it could prompt investors to withdraw from emerging market assets such as local currency bonds.

14:35:19

【CBS Poll: 69% of Gen Z Support Tax Increase for the Rich】 (1) A CBS/YouGov poll shows that 69% of respondents under the age of 30 support candidates who raise taxes on the rich, higher than 59% for those aged 30-44 and 55% for those over 45; only 12% think the candidates' tax stance is irrelevant. Reasons include the pandemic, financial crisis, student loans, and housing shortages. Taxation has become a core issue before the midterm elections. California Proposition 40, which imposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of 200 billionaires, is supported by 75% of those aged 18-29, but the overall poll is evenly matched. The poll was conducted from September 8-11, surveying 2,460 adults, with a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points. (2) Gen Z wants politicians to understand their situation: only 21% believe the American Dream is achievable, compared to 50% a decade ago; the cost of living and inflation are the primary concerns. They are skeptical of the political process, and issues such as reduced voting rights, restrictions on mail-in voting, and redistricting are pain points. They are optimistic about politicians who are consistent in word and deed and keep their promises outside of election cycles, such as New York City Mayor Mamdani and Senator Warnock; conservatives also support young leaders, such as Charlie Kirk. (3) Jersey Mike's is not popular among Generation Z: valued at about $7.5 billion and with more than 3,300 stores, but Generation Z only accounts for 2% of consumers, while 70% are from Generation X. Its social media advertising accounts for only 1% of spending, compared to 10% to 18% for other sandwich chains; it has hired Eli Manning and Danny DeVito to shoot ads, but still needs more gimmicks.

14:13:17

[Australian Dollar Consolidates, RBA Tightening Expectations Support Exchange Rate] 1. The Australian dollar traded steadily on Monday, currently fluctuating around 0.7122, after two consecutive weeks of declines. A more hawkish outlook for US interest rates has cooled the recent rally in the Australian dollar; however, with another rate hike in Australia almost a certainty, the Australian dollar remains near multi-year highs against the New Zealand dollar and the euro. 2. The Australian dollar has now moved away from its four-month high of 0.7238, with support around 0.7075. The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates to 4.6% next week. The Australian dollar is trading at NZ$1.2454 against the New Zealand dollar, hovering near a 13-year high; and at AUD$1.6106 against the euro, close to a 22-month high. 3. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and ANZ Bank adjusted their interest rate forecasts on Monday, now expecting the RBA to raise rates next Tuesday. This means all four major Australian banks now predict a rate hike next week. ANZ Bank also expects rates to rise further to 4.85% in November. 4. Adam Boyton, Head of Australian Economic Research at ANZ Bank, said the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had several opportunities over the past week to lower market expectations for a near-term rate hike through public communication, but has so far chosen not to. He believes that speeches by RBA officials tomorrow are unlikely to significantly reduce the likelihood of a September rate hike. Governor Bullock will speak on Tuesday, RBA Governing Council member Iain Ross will speak that evening, and Assistant Governor Hunt will participate in a podcast interview on Tuesday morning.

13:27:34

【High airfares during Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays drive "rushing to avoid peak times," with September 22nd and 28th becoming low-price windows】 (1) This year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day airfares are relatively high, leading to a large number of people "rushing to avoid peak times," and the popularity of air travel has spread to the workdays before the Mid-Autumn Festival. (2) Data from Qunar Travel shows that since September 22nd, the number of tourists "rushing to avoid peak times" during the holidays has been increasing day by day; the number of people traveling by air on Wednesday (23rd) increased by 20% year-on-year, and on September 24th, it increased by nearly 50% year-on-year. (3) Low prices are the primary driving force for rushing to avoid peak times. Looking at the average daily departure airfare, the workdays before the Mid-Autumn Festival are the period with the lowest airfares before and after the entire holiday: the average price for departures on September 22nd is more than 30% lower than the first day of the Mid-Autumn Festival (September 25th), and nearly 50% lower than the first day of the National Day (October 1st). For example, the price of a direct flight from Beijing to Guiyang on September 22nd (including airport construction and fuel surcharges) is as low as 500 yuan, and the price for departures on October 1st is 1275 yuan. (4) According to data from Qunar.com, the second "off-peak" window for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays is September 28, with average airfares about 40% lower than the first day of the holiday. (5) The number of people taking extended holidays from September 28 to 30 increased by 52% year-on-year, with one in seven travelers choosing to take leave.

13:14:08

[Texas Doctors Warn: Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Cause (CKDu) May Be Spreading in the US, Young Men Facing Organ Failure] (1) Doctors in Texas say an increasing number of previously healthy young men are seeking treatment for organ failure. Medical staff believe the culprit is CKDu, or Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Cause, a rapidly fatal kidney disease with an unclear cause. (2) Also known as Central American nephropathy, the disease is common in Central America and has been found in Sri Lanka. Researchers are concerned that it is spreading in the United States, especially among agricultural workers and manual laborers. (3) CKDu patients do not have typical kidney disease risk factors such as hypertension or diabetes. Most are Latino men aged 20 to 60 who often work in extreme conditions. Studies speculate that it is related to occupational and environmental exposure, especially among young men in lowland agricultural environments, such as sugarcane harvesters; another hypothesis is extreme heat stress or chronic dehydration, but the origin remains a "mystery to be solved." (4) In endemic areas, CKDu has a severe impact. The International Society of Nephrology stated that hospitalizations for this disease in El Salvador increased by 50% between 2005 and 2012, becoming the leading cause of hospitalization, with many hospitalized patients being under 19 years old. (5) CKDu is often only discovered in its late stages, when the kidneys are close to failure. Patients require dialysis or transplantation to survive, but the most vulnerable groups may not have access to these options. Researchers at Boston University stated that undocumented immigrants in most U.S. states do not have access to regular outpatient dialysis and can only rely on emergency dialysis; these cases are also not reported in the national kidney system database, and existing data likely underestimate the true burden of unexplained end-stage renal disease.

12:00:39

Singapore's final seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the second quarter

Previous : 2 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.90

Previous

11:31:06

[Analysts: High Interest Rates Don't Necessarily Mean Pessimism; Economic Resilience Strengthens, Neutral Interest Rate Expectations Rise] 1. Amid soaring global borrowing costs, some economists see positive signs: the economy is strong enough to withstand them. Central banks in developed countries have raised interest rates to curb inflation driven by the Iran war, and government bond yields have risen to multi-decade highs, but the global economy continues to show resilience. Investors expect central banks to not only continue tightening but also maintain higher interest rates for the foreseeable future. Strong economic performance is attributed to a surge in AI investment, which economists hope will boost future productivity. 2. Rising interest rates increase the cost of business investment and home purchases and dampen demand, but there are signs that the overall economy can withstand them. Stock markets are performing better than feared, corporate profits are strong, AI trading is active, and funds have not flowed significantly from stocks to high-yield bonds. Goldman Sachs' chief European economist, Stern, said that the economy's ability to withstand higher interest rates is a positive sign because there is more underlying growth. Economists are raising their expectations for the "neutral interest rate." The neutral interest rate is difficult to observe directly; faster growth and rising price pressures indicate that policy rates are below the neutral level. 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said the neutral interest rate is "academically useful" but irrelevant to policy decisions. Goldman Sachs points out that the latest Federal Reserve forecasts show the median expected neutral interest rate has risen from 3.1% to 3.25%; the upper limit for the neutral interest rate in the Eurozone is 2.5%, and Japan's has also risen by about 0.25 percentage points. Oxford Economics' Harlemberg states that rising neutral interest rate expectations are fueling a sell-off in long-term government bonds, predicting a further 0.5 percentage point increase in the US neutral interest rate and about 0.25 percentage points in the Eurozone over the next five years. 4. Expectations of AI-driven productivity gains have contributed to the rise in neutral interest rates in the US and Europe, but Europe's adoption is slower, and the impact will take longer. Harlemberg states that more productivity growth leads to more tax revenue, making higher interest rates easier to manage. Other contributing factors are more worrying, such as rising government debt. Since the 1980s, the neutral interest rate has generally declined, partly due to increased savings demand from an aging population, weakened interest in productive investment, and a "global savings glut." Warsh argues that the savings glut is over, and the current period is one of surging global investment. 5. Central banks may welcome higher neutral interest rates, as this provides more room for rate hikes to combat inflation and also leaves room for rate cuts to stimulate the economy during downturns. University College London Professor Rachel stated that low interest rates are like canaries in a coal mine, foreshadowing a bleak outlook; a rise in the neutral interest rate is good news, but she worries that a sharp increase in yields could catch some governments off guard and make it difficult for them to pay interest.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

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-32.13

(-0.73%)

XAG

 66.033

-0.213

(-0.32%)

CONC

 92.49

-3.59

(-3.74%)

OILC

 100.50

-2.70

(-2.61%)

USD

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0.220

(0.22%)

EURUSD

 1.1464

-0.0021

(-0.18%)

GBPUSD

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-0.0025

(-0.19%)

USDCNH

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-0.0020

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