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2026-11-05 Thursday

2026-11-06

22:10:42

[Guotai Haitong: Logically, a partitioned government after the midterm elections is beneficial to US Treasuries, while the trends of US stocks, the US dollar, and gold are relatively uncertain] Guotai Haitong released a research report pointing out that, logically, a partitioned government after the midterm elections is beneficial to US Treasuries, while the trends of US stocks, the US dollar, and gold are relatively uncertain. Historically, partitioned governments have benefited US Treasuries, US technology stocks, and the US dollar, while gold's gains have been relatively narrower. For US Treasuries, after the midterm elections, fiscal expansion under a partitioned government may be relatively restrained, and concerns about economic expectations and fiscal sustainability will decrease, thus providing some positive impetus for US Treasury yields. For US stocks, there are both positive impetus from loose liquidity and policy stability brought about by partition, and negative impetus from declining economic momentum and increased risk of government shutdown. For the US dollar, slower economic growth and narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other countries will suppress the dollar, but decreased concerns about fiscal sustainability will lead to a relatively stronger dollar. For gold, loose liquidity under a partitioned government is beneficial to gold, but increased policy stability reduces the demand for gold as a safe haven, which is negative for gold; therefore, it is a case of both positive and negative factors. However, a review of market performance from 2000 to 2025 shows that a divided government would benefit US Treasury bonds, US tech stocks, and the US dollar, while gold's gains would be relatively smaller.

21:51:56

[Cleveland Fed President Hammarck: Inclined Towards Gradual Rate Hikes, Policy Needs to Shift to a Restrictive Stance] ⑴ Cleveland Fed President Hammarck said on Thursday that the US central bank has more work to do in bringing inflation down to its 2% target, as price pressures remain unacceptably high. ⑵ In prepared remarks for an event in Zurich, Hammarck said he expects monetary policy to need to shift to a restrictive stance in order to push inflation back to 2% in a timely manner. ⑶ Hammarck did not specify when he hopes the Fed will raise rates again, but indicated a preference for achieving this stance through more frequent, small adjustments when possible, which would have less disruption to households, businesses, and financial markets. ⑷ Hammarck stated that gradual rate hikes would also reduce the risk of policy falling behind its proper level and the risk of an inflationary mindset taking hold. ⑸ The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged last week in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, despite policymakers acknowledging that inflation was too high. The Fed raised rates in September, and financial markets widely expect another rate hike in December. (6) Hammark and Federal Reserve Governor Cook dissented last week and supported raising interest rates. Hammark also voted against the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the end of July, arguing that monetary policy and broader financial conditions were not providing the necessary constraints on the economy, meaning the Fed needed to push up short-term borrowing costs. (7) Hammark stated that central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable inflation, and that the Fed has earned credibility as an institution operating based on evidence and economic data rather than political pressure.

21:48:32

[He Lifeng, during his research visit to Beijing, emphasized the need to strengthen the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation to promote sustained economic development towards new, better, and more positive directions] He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, conducted research in Beijing from November 4th to 5th. He Lifeng pointed out the importance of accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, strengthening the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, and promoting sustained economic development towards new, better, and more positive directions. He Lifeng visited Huairou and Tongzhou districts in Beijing, conducting on-site research on relevant science and technology infrastructure, intelligent manufacturing, and biopharmaceutical companies. He learned about the transformation of scientific research achievements, enterprise development, and product exports, and held a symposium with districts and towns to listen to opinions from grassroots levels. He Lifeng pointed out the need to strengthen strategic support for science and technology, highlighting the supply of scientific and technological innovation and the guidance of industrial market demand, giving full play to the government's guiding role, strengthening the integration of industry, academia, and research in innovation and technology application, and better serving the construction of a science and technology innovation center. He stressed the need to adhere to the principle of giving equal importance to development and security, increasing financial support and resource guarantees for fields such as artificial intelligence and computing network construction, coordinating innovative development with risk prevention and control, and orderly expanding investment in new infrastructure construction. We must develop new types of productive forces in accordance with local conditions, cultivate and strengthen emerging industries such as high-end manufacturing and biomedicine, support enterprises in independent innovation and the upgrading of products and services, continuously enhance international competitiveness, and actively integrate into and expand the global market. (Xinhua)

21:34:56

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31 (in thousands)

Previous : 19.40 Forecast : 19.50

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 18.90

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