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2025-09-18 Thursday

2025-09-19

22:00:44

The monthly rate of the Consultative Conference lagging indicator for August in the United States

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

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22:00:40

The monthly rate of the Consultative Conference synchronous indicator for August in the United States

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

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22:00:25

The leading indicators of the Consultative Conference in the United States for August

Previous : 98.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 98.40

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22:00:03

The monthly rate of the Conference Board's leading indicators in the United States for August

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -0.10%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value -0.50%

Previous

21:49:50

[US Treasury Yields Surge, Mortgage Market Undercurrents] ⑴ US 30-year MBS performance diverged, with higher-coupon bonds finding some respite as Treasury yields further jumped. The 10-year yield broke through its overnight high to 4.126%, approaching the mid-term Bollinger Band resistance of 4.151%. ⑵ A much-expected drop in initial jobless claims eased concerns about an unusual spike in data during last week's Labor Day holiday, pushing Treasury bonds to continue their post-Federal Reserve rate meeting sell-off. ⑶ The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread widened to 54.2 basis points from its opening level, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the Fed's October and December meetings returning to Wednesday's opening level. ⑷ The Bank of England's continued policy stance and reduced long-term QT sales led to lower gilt futures and a steeper curve, exacerbating volatility in global bond markets. 5) 5% and 5.5% coupons were the most active in UMBS30 trading, with GNIIs prioritizing the October 5.5% and November 5% varieties, while the 6.5% coupon bucked the trend and rose by 1 basis point. 6) Treasury yields rose across the board by 3-6 basis points, with the 20-year and 30-year bonds leading the gains. The 10-year yield reached 4.122% and the 5-year yield was at 3.680%, continuing the curve steepening trend. 7) The VIX volatility index fell 0.5 points to 15.26, and the investment-grade CDX spread narrowed 0.4 basis points to 47.15 basis points. At least eight new investment-grade bond issuances were announced that day.

21:05:16

The preferential interest rate of the central bank of South Africa in September - the loan base rate

Previous : 10.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 10.50%

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21:04:35

The benchmark interest rate of the central bank of South Africa in September - the repo rate

Previous : 7% Forecast : 7%

Published Value 7%

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21:00:04

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves for the week ending September 12

Previous : 6985 Forecast : -

Published Value 7051

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20:33:15

[Caixin Futures: Agricultural Products Sector Strategy Overview] (1) Palm Oil: The US dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve's rate cut, coupled with less-than-expected biodiesel policy, leading to a sharp drop in US soybean oil prices. Malaysian palm oil opened high and closed lower, fluctuating at a high level. The first round of stockpiling for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays has concluded in China, with the second round of stockpiling not expected to begin until mid-November. Guangzhou 24°C palm oil spot prices fell 170 yuan to 9,210 yuan/ton, while soybean oil fell 80 yuan to 8,630 yuan/ton. Palm oil led the decline, with overall weakness and fluctuations at a high level. A neutral strategy is recommended. (2) Soybean Meal: Soybean supply is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, but a gap may emerge in the first quarter of next year. The long-term premium structure remains supportive. The recent market weakness is partly due to the auction of soybean reserves entering the crushing phase and partly due to the impact of progress in tariff negotiations on sentiment. Short-term drivers are insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended, focusing on policy releases and the pace of auctions. (3) Corn: Traders enjoyed good profits last year, leading to strong speculation in the new-season corn crop. Combined with low inventories at northern ports, opening prices for new corn in Northeast China have risen year-on-year. New-season spring corn is expected to remain relatively strong after its release, before weakening. A light position is recommended for shorting. (4) Pigs: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continues to hold symposiums with companies to discuss production capacity control measures, which is positive for futures prices. However, current supply pressures remain significant, and the market is weak. Short-term downstream stockpiling may support prices, but the long-term outlook remains bearish. Shorting on rallies or hedging is recommended. (5) Eggs: Current open interest is significantly higher than in previous years, increasing market expectations and leading to a recent decline. The significant pre-holiday spot price increase led to a rebound in futures prices, but the magnitude was limited, and the market gradually shifted to a discount. Long-term supply continues to increase, and the overall outlook remains bearish.

20:32:21

[Caixin Futures: Pre-holiday Strategy Overview for Energy and Chemical Products] (1) Crude Oil: Recent market trends are driven by geopolitical dynamics. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil pipelines and refineries, and Trump's threats of new sanctions against Russia have complicated the situation in Russia, Europe, and the Middle East, leading to a persistent geopolitical premium. Combined with EIA data showing significant destocking of commercial crude oil, short-term market volatility is expected, with a focus on evolving geopolitical risks. (2) Fuel Oil: Affected by US sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, coupled with uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East situations, the price differential structure is relatively strong, and short-term volatility is expected to remain low. Overly bearish sentiment is advised. (3) Glass: Spot price is 1,166 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month-on-month. Declining soda ash and coal costs and cooling commodity sentiment have put pressure on the market today, but the realization of peak season expectations and continued destocking are providing support. A buy on dips is recommended, with a target entry range of 1,200-1,210, primarily focused on rebounds. (4) Soda Ash: The market is weak and volatile, with prices moving downward and trading volume thin. Hebei's warehouse-to-export basis is reported at 01-110, while Shahe's is reported at 01-90. The sharp drop releases short-term risks. While the long-term outlook is weak, the strength of the downstream glass market and the stabilization of coal costs suggest continued destocking, necessitating a short-term bullish strategy. (5) Caustic soda: Shandong's liquid caustic soda is experiencing poor sales, increasing inventories, and local price reductions, with overall prices fluctuating at a low level. However, expectations of pre-National Day restocking persist, and downstream alumina production remains high, supporting an optimistic outlook and a moderately bullish strategy. (6) Methanol: Taicang spot prices are 2,250 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan month-on-month. Buying interest has weakened, and trading has turned subdued. High import supply and a slight increase in port inventories are suppressing the market. The market is shifting between high inventories and expectations of a peak season, maintaining a volatile and weak outlook.

20:31:52

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing Loading index for September in the United States

Previous : 4.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 26.10

Previous

20:31:47

The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Price Index for September in the United States

Previous : 36.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 18.80

Previous

20:31:14

[Caixin Futures: Pre-holiday Strategy for Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Sectors] (1) Gold: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points as expected. The dot plot confirms three rate cuts this year, but the path for the next two years remains largely unchanged, implying only one more cut next year. Powell characterized this as a "precautionary rate cut," indicating a policy bottom has been reached and a potential technical rebound in long-term interest rates by year-end. The US dollar and interest rates plummeted immediately after the decision was announced, sending gold prices surging, but this price quickly retreated after the press conference. The 3,700 level for gold has fully priced in a 75 basis point rate cut this year. Lacking support from a steeper curve, 3,700 represents strong resistance in the short term. We recommend reducing long leverage and adopting a bearish bias. (2) Alumina: The market corrected due to the Fed's rate cut and news of mine production resumption in Guinea. Fundamentals remain oversupplied, with weekly production capacity rebounding, inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase, and the import window opening, resulting in overall weakness. With narrowing profit margins, lower cost support may gradually emerge. Short-term short positions can be booked gradually, while monitoring potential policy impacts. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: The 25 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting was implemented, but it did not exceed expectations. Shanghai Aluminum retreated along with nonferrous metals. Market expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season remain high, and the continued increase in LME Asian warehouse withdrawals has raised supply concerns. The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, and the overall outlook for aluminum prices remains strong. A long-only strategy is to buy on dips, with attention to the turning point of destocking. (4) Cast Aluminum Alloy: The rate cut news did not exceed expectations, and prices retreated along with nonferrous metals. However, a tight scrap aluminum market has led to a rush to stock up, driving up prices. Demand is driven by the traditional peak season, but quality remains to be verified. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, the market is expected to remain strong. A long-only strategy is to buy on dips, focusing on the pace of raw material supply and demand recovery. (5) Lithium Carbonate: The market is suppressed by expectations of production resumption in Ningde, but downstream peak season and pre-holiday stockpiling provide some support. A slight increase in production and a decrease in inventory suggest limited short-term momentum. The results of the self-inspection of Yichun mining companies have not yet been released, and supply-side uncertainty remains. Strategically, we recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach and be wary of news-related disturbance risks.

20:30:26

Philadelphia Fed's six-month forecast for manufacturing business conditions in the United States in September

Previous : 25 Forecast : -

Published Value 31.50

Previous

20:30:25

The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Price Payment Index for September in the United States

Previous : 66.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 46.80

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20:30:23

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing Employment Index for September in the United States

Previous : 5.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 5.60

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20:30:22

The Philadelphia Fed's new Manufacturing Orders Index for September in the United States

Previous : -1.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 12.40

Previous

20:30:22

The Philadelphia Fed Capital Expenditure Index for September in the United States

Previous : 38.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 12.50

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20:30:22

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September in the United States

Previous : -0.30 Forecast : 2.50

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 23.20

Previous

20:30:22

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 13

Previous : 26.30 Forecast : 24

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 23.10

Previous

20:30:20

The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending September 13

Previous : 193.90 Forecast : 195

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 192

Previous

20:30:18

The four-week average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 13

Previous : 24.05 Forecast : -

Published Value 24

Previous

20:30:17

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - wheat for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 1

Previous

20:30:16

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybean oil for the current year -USDA Weekly

Previous : -0.64 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.24

Previous

20:30:16

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybean oil for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

20:30:15

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybean total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 54.11 Forecast : -

Published Value 92.53

Previous

20:30:14

U.S. new beef export sales for the week ending September 11 -USDA Weekly

Previous : 1.31 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.77

Previous

20:30:14

New pork export sales in the United States as of September 11 -USDA Weekly

Previous : 2.41 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.37

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20:30:14

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total soybean oil for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : -0.64 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.24

Previous

20:30:13

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybean meal for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 3.34 Forecast : -

Published Value 3.12

Previous

20:30:13

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybean meal for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 32.41 Forecast : -

Published Value 15.13

Previous

20:30:12

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Soybeans for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.23

Previous

20:30:11

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Corn for the second year -USDA weekly

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

20:30:11

U.S. soybean new export sales for the week ending September 11 -USDA Weekly

Previous : 149.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 99.89

Previous

20:30:10

U.S. New corn export sales for the week ending September 11 -USDA Weekly

Previous : 20.14 Forecast : -

Published Value 153.84

Previous

20:30:09

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - Corn for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 53.99 Forecast : -

Published Value 123.16

Previous

20:30:08

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total beef -USDA weekly

Previous : 1.21 Forecast : -

Published Value 1.58

Previous

20:30:08

U.S. net export sales for the week ended September 11 - total pork -USDA weekly

Previous : 1.73 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.20

Previous

20:30:07

U.S. net export sales for the week ending September 11 - total wheat for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 30.54 Forecast : -

Published Value 38.75

Previous

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Instrument Current Price Change

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3658.69

14.42

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