Real-Time Financial News | 24/7 Market Updates

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2025-09-16 Tuesday

2025-09-19

20:30:14

U.S. August retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline monthly rate - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.70%

20:30:13

U.S. core retail sales monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.40%

美元

金银欧元

Published Value 0.70%

20:30:09

U.S. retail sales monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : 0.20%

美元

金银欧元

Published Value 0.60%

20:30:08

The monthly rate of the U.S. import price index for August

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -0.10%

美元

金银石油

Published Value 0.30%

20:30:08

The monthly rate of the U.S. export price index for August

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0%

Published Value 0.30%

20:30:07

Canada's core CPI monthly rate for August - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

20:30:06

Canada's core CPI year-on-year rate for August - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.60%

20:30:06

Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

20:30:05

Canada's core CPI for August - ordinary annual rate

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : 2.70%

Published Value 2.50%

20:30:05

Canada's core CPI for August - truncated adjusted annual rate

Previous : 3% Forecast : 3%

Published Value 3%

20:30:05

The core CPI monthly rate of the Bank of Canada for August

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

20:30:04

Canada's core CPI for August - weighted median annual rate

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : 3.10%

Published Value 3.10%

20:30:04

Canada's unadjusted CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.10%

美元

加元金银

Published Value -0.10%

20:30:04

Canada's unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for August

Previous : 1.70% Forecast : 2%

美元

加元金银

Published Value 1.90%

20:29:24

Hellenic Growth Fund CEO: Greece's newly established fund plans to invest 1 billion euros in technology and renewable energy

20:27:54

[Analysts: Improved risk appetite boosts the euro's rise] Monex Europe analysts said in a report that the euro rose to a two-and-a-half-month high against the US dollar. This was partly due to the weakening of the US dollar driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut, and partly due to improved market risk appetite. In addition, ECB member Schnabel's statement on Monday that interest rates should be kept stable also supported the euro. Analysts pointed out that if US retail sales data released later is weaker than expected, or if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sends a signal that "further interest rate cuts will be made in the future", the euro is expected to rise further.

20:27:44

[Markets Await Key Data, Heating Rate Cut Expectations] ⑴ Macro markets remained calm ahead of the release of key retail sales data, with US Treasury yields flat and the 10-year bond fluctuating in a narrow 2.3 basis point range overnight, indicating that markets are preparing for the upcoming data. August retail sales are expected to be modest, with an overall forecast of 0.2% growth. The core data, excluding autos, is forecast to be 0.4%, and the control data, which more directly influences GDP, is forecast to be 0.4%. ⑵ The market generally believes that a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely, although this may be the best option given its relatively slow pace of policy. However, there are divisions within the Federal Reserve, and not all policymakers agree with the White House. Three members (Waller, Bowman, and Miran) are expected to vote for a 50 basis point rate cut, while some may vote to maintain interest rates as a sign of dissatisfaction. ⑶ Trump's side is pushing for the 2025 "dot plot" to show three rate cuts, rather than the current two. If this happens, the market may have already priced in three rate cuts beyond expectations, suggesting a more favorable risk-reward strategy of "selling on rallies." It's worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will participate in the interest rate decision and vote on the "dot plot." (4) Regarding trading strategies, it's recommended to cover short positions in 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds on rallies. Specifically, short positions in 2-year Treasury bonds can be considered around 3.50%, and short positions in 10-year Treasury bonds around 4.05%, with target ranges of 3.52%-3.56% and 4.03%-4.07%. The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to fluctuate between 4.07% and 4.01%. (5) Tuesday will feature the release of most of this week's key economic data, including international trade prices and retail sales (expected to increase by 0.2%), industrial production (expected to decline by 0.1%), as well as business inventories and the NAHB Housing Market Index (expected to rise slightly to 33 points). These data will provide important reference for the market, especially in the context of Trump's tariff remarks causing market concerns. The data performance may affect consumer confidence and corporate decision-making.

20:27:01

New York Times spokesperson: We will not be intimidated by Trump's intimidation tactics

20:25:45

[Data Tide and the Fed Storm: Market Stuck and Awaiting Change] ⑴ Key economic data such as retail sales and import prices are about to be released. The market generally expects retail sales to grow by 0.2% month-over-month in August, slightly lower than the previous reading, indicating a modest recovery. Meanwhile, industrial output and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly, suggesting a possible short-term adjustment in the manufacturing sector, adding uncertainty to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. ⑵ The market generally expects the FOMC to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, but there is a slight disagreement on the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, indicating investors' cautious attitude towards the future path of monetary policy. Prior to this, the Bank of Canada has released its latest policy decision. Further attention will be paid to the Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Bank of Japan, with the probability of a Norges Bank rate cut attracting the most attention. ⑶ US stock futures were mixed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices hit new highs, but the underlying yield on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) remained weak, indicating cautious market sentiment. Although there are reports that the US-China trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, investors are still digesting data and policy signals, and risk appetite is suppressed to a certain extent. ⑷ The 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated around 4.039%, and the 2s10s curve steepened slightly, showing market concerns about interest rate risks. The US dollar index was under pressure to move downward, hitting a recent low, which may be related to market expectations of interest rate cuts. Crude oil prices rose slightly due to geopolitical factors. ⑸ The MBS market lagged behind the overall Treasury market, with the current yield of 30-year MBS at approximately 5.040%, showing certain signs of pressure. The upcoming 20-year Treasury bond auction, as well as the FOMC meeting statement and press conference, will be the focus of market attention and will further affect the direction of the bond and stock markets.

20:23:38

[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Supply Concerns Boost Divergent Trends in the Agricultural Products Sector] ⑴ Recent days of heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, have caused flooding and power outages. As a major palm oil producing region, the market is concerned that harvesting during the September-October production season will be hampered, and supply growth may be lower than expected. ⑵ Shipping agency data shows a slight month-on-month increase in exports from September 1st to 15th, providing support for BMD crude palm oil futures. Trading in Malaysia is expected to rebound after Wednesday's resumption. ⑶ Domestic 24-degree palm oil spot prices in Guangzhou rose 110 yuan to 9,410 yuan/ton today. The continuous P2601 contract strengthened on the rebound in crude oil and recovering biodiesel demand. ⑷ Combined with the start of stocking for the two major holidays and the return of rapeseed oil to the 10,000 yuan mark, sentiment in the oil and fat sector has improved. Technically, the 9,330-9,400 yuan range provides strong support. ⑸ The trading strategy has shifted from a volatile approach to a bullish one, with long positions being considered on pullbacks. ⑹ While soybean supply is not a major concern in the fourth quarter, a potential gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting a premium for the deferred month. ⑺ Soybean meal prices have recently weakened. This is partly due to the entry of auctioned soybean reserves into the domestic crushing market, and partly due to the impact of progress in tariff and trade negotiations on short-term sentiment. ⑻ Subsequent market developments will depend on the release of concrete policies or the scale of reserve soybean auctions. Short-term drivers are insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended. ⑼ Traders enjoyed decent profits last year, leading to a high level of speculation in the new-season corn market. Combined with lower year-over-year inventories at northern ports, opening prices for corn in Northeast China have increased year-over-year. ⑽ New-season spring corn is expected to remain relatively strong for a while before weakening. A small position is recommended for shorting. ⑾ Regarding pig supply, overall slaughter in September may still increase, with limited room for further reductions in slaughter weights. Overall, supply will continue to increase slightly. Near the end of the month and the beginning of the month, pig farmers may experience a regular reduction in slaughter, which may drive a short-term rebound in spot prices. ⑿ Demand has been gradually rising recently, providing some support for prices. There may be an early increase in stock at the end of September in preparation for the National Day holiday. Farming profits may recover somewhat in September, but the extent will be limited. A bearish outlook is maintained in the long term, and a light position is recommended for shorting. ⒀ Egg open interest is significantly higher than the same period last year, and market expectations are increasingly conflicting, but there has been a recent downward trend. Funding flows require careful monitoring. ⒁ Far-month and ultra-far-month contracts maintain high premiums, and basis valuations are high. Long-term supply may continue to increase, but short-term peak season demand will be less than expected, leading to weak spot prices. A bearish outlook is recommended.

20:22:49

[ANZ: The Bank of Japan may keep its policy interest rate unchanged for the rest of the year] Tom Kenny, senior international economist at ANZ Research, said in a report that the Bank of Japan may keep its policy interest rate unchanged for the rest of the year. He pointed out that the increased uncertainty about the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, coupled with the unclear domestic political situation in Japan, may keep the Bank of Japan on hold until next year. The last time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates was in early 2025. Kenny said that a main reason for the central bank to suspend interest rate hikes was that it lowered its inflation forecast for fiscal 2026, which is now below the price stability target of 2%. This shows that the confidence of members of the central bank's policy committee in achieving its price stability mission has declined, he added. ANZ has postponed its forecast for a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan from October 2025 to January 2026.

20:22:48

Bank of America's CFO predicts accelerated growth in consumer credit and spending by 2025. Consumers are performing well, credit quality is stable, commercial asset quality is excellent, and the commercial real estate portfolio has improved.

20:22:17

Polish Prime Minister Tusk: The Polish government will select a submarine supplier by the end of this year

20:22:04

[The British pound hit a 10-week high, boosted by multiple factors] ⑴ The British pound has climbed to a 10-week high of 1.3649 against the US dollar, the highest point reached since July 7. ⑵ The market generally expects that the upcoming US retail sales data for August will show a monthly increase of 0.2%. ⑶ The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting in two days and is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday. ⑷ The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and may reduce the scale of quantitative tightening (QT). ⑸ It is worth noting that in the week ending September 9, according to CFTC data, the net short position in the British pound has increased for the third consecutive week.

20:21:52

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Fluctuates Strong, Geopolitical Risks Support Oil Prices] ⑴ OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production in October has been gradually digested by the market, and geopolitical factors have recently dominated crude oil market fluctuations. ⑵ Trump's threat of new economic sanctions against Russia, coupled with continued attacks on Russian refineries and oil depots by Ukraine, maintains a short-term geopolitical sentiment premium, and oil prices are expected to have limited downward momentum. ⑶ US sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, coupled with uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East situation, have led to a strong fuel oil price differential. We do not recommend an overly bearish outlook, and expect low-level fluctuations. ⑷ Sustained buying sentiment in the midstream glass market has led to slight adjustments in spot prices, but anti-involutionary measures and the spread of news regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan have driven upward fluctuations in the market. ⑸ Short-term premiums are high, so chasing highs is not recommended. However, given the seasonal improvement in glass demand in September and October, medium-term optimism is warranted, with a target entry range of 1200-1210. ⑹ The soda ash market is stabilizing, with prices firming. Some companies are raising prices slightly. The spot-futures basis shows a discount of 110 RMB for the Hebei 01 contract delivered to warehouses, and a discount of 95 RMB for deliveries to Shahe. ⑺ Although the long-term outlook is weak, the downstream glass market is currently strong, upstream coal costs are stabilizing, and anti-involution sentiment is resurfacing, leading to a significant rebound in the market. Given the weak basis, short-term buying is discouraged, with a focus on dips. ⑻ Liquid caustic soda sales in Shandong Province are sluggish, with major downstream purchase prices falling by 18 RMB. Most companies are accumulating inventory, and retail prices have dropped by 10-40 RMB. Other regions are currently stable. ⑼ Given the expectation of continued inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and the continued high production of alumina, the outlook for the caustic soda market is optimistic. ⑽ The spot price of methanol in Taicang is 2,292 RMB, down 3 RMB month-on-month. Import supply remains high recently, and port inventory pressures may continue to increase, suppressing the market. ⑾ The market switches back and forth in trading logic during the period of high inventory at ports and expected peak season, and the market fluctuates widely. Considering the strong short-term commodity sentiment, methanol can be regarded as fluctuating strongly.

20:20:42

[Caixin Futures: Gold Benefits from Multiple Positive Factors, Diverging Commodity Trends] ⑴ Gold is positioned in a sweet spot between stagflation and recession, while rising initial jobless claims reinforce expectations of a US interest rate cut. ⑵ The market anticipates that if the Federal Reserve is forced to ease without fully controlling prices, real interest rates will decline rapidly and undermine the dollar's credit premium. ⑶ Historical experience shows that the trifecta of "weak growth, loose policy, and sticky inflation" is a favorable scenario for gold. Coupled with global central banks' de-dollarization efforts and frequent geopolitical conflicts, gold's upside potential still outweighs the risk of a correction. ⑷ Short-term fluctuations will not alter the medium-term trend, with gold's support range shifting downward to 823-830 yuan. ⑸ Alumina prices briefly surged in the night session due to anti-involutionary sentiment, but subsequently retreated from their highs. Its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, with weekly operating capacity rebounding and inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase. ⑹ The alumina import window has opened, and import expectations are increasing. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and upward momentum is still lacking in the short term. We recommend shorting on rallies and monitoring subsequent policy changes. 7. The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting decision, but caution is warranted against the risk of a pullback if the rate cut falls short of expectations. Fundamentally, the market anticipates the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the continued increase in LME Asian warehouse pickups has raised supply concerns. 8. Shanghai aluminum inventories saw a slight buildup this week, with the extent of destocking falling short of expectations. The turning point in this destocking remains to be seen, but the market remains bullish, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. 9. The shortage of scrap aluminum in the cast aluminum alloy market has intensified, with a rush to stock up pushing prices up rapidly. The traditional peak season is approaching, but quality remains to be verified. 10. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, cast aluminum alloys are expected to maintain a relatively strong performance, with a primary strategy of buying on dips, with continued focus on raw material supply, demand recovery, and policy impacts. 11. Lithium carbonate's rebound has continued, driven by anti-involutionary sentiment and strong downstream demand for stockpiling during the peak season. In the short term, prices remain supported below the peak demand season. ⑿ However, the results of the "self-inspection" of Yichun mining companies have not yet been announced, and the uncertainty on the supply side has not been resolved. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and be wary of the risk of news disturbances on the supply side.

20:20:03

[Former Italian Prime Minister: US LNG prices to the EU are 60-90% higher than in the US] Former Italian Prime Minister and former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stated that even taking into account logistics and regasification costs, US LNG prices to the EU remain 60-90% higher than in the US. At a conference commemorating the first anniversary of his submission of the EU competitiveness report to the European Commission, Draghi stated: "Europe has become the world's largest buyer of US LNG, with the EU committing to purchase US energy totaling $750 billion. Since March, LNG prices to Europe have been 60-90% higher than in the US, even taking into account logistics and regasification costs."

20:19:14

Nymex US crude oil futures rose 1.01% to $63.94 per barrel

20:19:06

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Pre-Holiday Inventory Replenishment Expectations Support Costs] ⑴ Rebar faces high inventory pressure, with warehouse receipts continuing to increase. However, raw material supply disruptions and the expectation of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are providing strong support for costs. The short-term center of gravity may shift slightly upward, with the 01 contract trading range indicated at 3140-3200 yuan. ⑵ On the capital side, the top 20 positions in the 01 rebar contract saw a reduction in positions, with a larger reduction in long positions, indicating cautious market sentiment. However, the 01 hot-rolled coil contract saw an increase in positions, with a significant increase in short positions, and position changes were biased towards the bearish side. ⑶ On the iron ore supply side, Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global shipments remain high, and hot metal production remains high. Port inventories fluctuate slightly, suggesting minimal real-world conflicts. ⑷ Expectations of pre-holiday inventory replenishment are supporting ore prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the production restrictions in Tangshan. In the medium term, the shipment status of the Simandou project (whether the first batch of cargoes can be shipped normally in November and December) remains to be monitored. Weak market expectations have been somewhat addressed, with the extent of the decline in hot metal production being a key concern. 5. Coking coal market sentiment has improved with rising market prices, with auction prices rising and the unsold rate remaining low. The crackdown on overproduction at coal mines has entered its realization phase, and pre-holiday inventory restocking is driving short-term upward momentum. 6. However, caution should be exercised against the risk of a correction due to a continued weakening basis (spot prices failing to keep up with the market, leading to widening premiums) and profit-taking capital exiting the market. Strategically, a diversified allocation strategy across the supply chain should be maintained. 7. In the coke market, profit-driven coke companies are actively producing, downstream hot metal production remains high, and coupled with the expectation of pre-holiday inventory restocking, cost support is evident, making further price increases more difficult. However, market valuations are already high, so chasing the upward trend is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. 8. Manganese silicon is insufficiently driven by its own upward momentum. Manganese ore shipments remain stable, factory operations have rebounded, and factory inventories have increased slightly. Expectations of declining demand persist, and prices may fluctuate at a low level, following the raw material market.

20:16:23

Brent crude oil rose by $0.22 per barrel in the short term, reaching a high of $67.88 per barrel, while US crude oil rose by $0.25 per barrel in the short term, reaching a high of $63.91 per barrel.

20:15:08

New housing construction began in Canada in August

Previous : 29.41 Forecast : 27.75

Published Value 24.58

20:14:49

[Russian Oil Pipeline Giant Limits Oil Storage; Production May Be Affected by "Quickest-Effective Sanctions"] ⑴ Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft is limiting oil storage within its system and has warned oil producers that it may have to cut production due to a series of drone attacks launched by Ukraine on key export ports and refineries. ⑵ Ukraine's escalating attacks on Russian energy facilities since August, aimed at hindering Russia's war effort and cutting its revenue stream, could ultimately force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to cut production. ⑶ Ukrainian drones attacked at least 10 refineries, temporarily curtailing nearly one-fifth of Russia's refining capacity and damaging key Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorye. ⑷ Although Russian authorities have not publicly commented on the extent of the damage, Transneft, which handles over 80% of Russia's oil production, has restricted the ability of oil companies to store oil within its pipeline system and has stated that further damage to infrastructure could force it to accept less oil. (5) The attack poses a significant challenge to Russian oil production and exports, particularly given that Russia lacks the extensive oil storage capacity of major OPEC producers, potentially leading to a decline in production. (6) Institutional analysis indicates that Russia's ability to increase production is threatened by limited storage capacity, while refinery outages will also hinder production due to crude oil storage congestion. However, Asian buyers continue to demand Russian crude oil, and production is expected to decline only modestly.

20:13:14

Japan opposes US call for higher tariffs on Russian oil imports, saying it's difficult to impose them. Japan's finance minister has rejected US calls to impose higher tariffs on India for importing Russian oil. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato told reporters on Tuesday, "Japan has made commitments within the World Trade Organization to not impose tariffs exceeding the prescribed ceiling and to treat all member countries fairly, provided that other member countries comply with their obligations under the WTO agreement." He added, "It would be difficult for us to raise tariffs to, for example, 50% simply because a country imports oil from Russia."

20:12:54

Sri Lanka will spend about $3 billion to increase the capacity of a state-owned refinery near Colombo to as much as 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) from about 38,000 bpd currently, the minister said.

20:11:39

Russia may be forced to start cutting oil production after attacks on Baltic ports and refineries, three sources said.

20:11:34

Russia's oil pipeline monopoly, Transneft, has told producers it is limiting storage of oil on its pipeline system and may restrict imports, two sources said.

20:11:26

German trade union IG Metall: Jindal Steel's takeover bid for ThyssenKrupp's steel unit is fundamentally good news for our workers

20:09:50

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant refuses to comment on disagreements with Trump administration officials. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant declined to comment on reports of disagreements with another Trump administration official. Instead, he jokingly referred to a famous duel involving a former Treasury secretary and said his department "has a long tradition of feuding." CNBC asked Bessant if he had clashed with Bill Pulte, the Trump administration's senior official in charge of housing finance. Bessant responded, "U.S. Treasury secretaries have a history of 'dueling' since Alexander Hamilton." Politico, the U.S. political news website, reported earlier this month that Pulte allegedly disparaged Bessant in front of the president, prompting Bessant to threaten a "duel" with Pulte.

20:09:43

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,410.00/oz mark and was last trading at $1,410.40/oz, up 0.91% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,425.0/oz, up 0.55% on the day.

20:07:58

White House spokesperson: Trump administration will appeal court ruling against Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook

20:07:01

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: The daily chart shows a mild convergence of Bollinger Bands. The middle band at 1.3811 has flattened since mid-August, indicating a slowdown in trend momentum. The upper band at 1.3898 and the lower band at 1.3723 form a short-term fluctuation range. The current candlestick body is near 1.3750, slightly below the medium-term average. MACD DIFF = 0.0007, DEA = 0.0013, and MACD on the histogram = -0.0012, indicating that the price has not yet formed a clear upward momentum resonance, and the momentum structure is closer to "weak divergence near the zero axis - rebalancing." The RSI (14) is 44.8597, in the "neutral slightly bearish" range, and has not triggered the oversold threshold. It is likely to continue the sideways trend or maintain "weak oscillation - direction undetermined" before fundamental catalysts. In terms of price structure, 1.3723 (lower Bollinger band) is the current dynamic support level. A break below it on heavy volume and a failed retest would open up potential for an extension towards the previous low cluster. 1.3539 is further static support and a sentiment anchor. Above, resistance lies at 1.3811 (middle band) and 1.3898 (upper band). If a sentiment-driven volume breakout leads to a recapture and stabilization of the middle band, a pullback to the previous high near 1.3924 is possible. The lack of significant expansion in the Bollinger Band width suggests a diminishing marginal advantage for trend trading, with mean reversion and box-shaped trading more in line with the market.

20:06:57

Trump administration to appeal court ruling on Fed Governor Lisa Cook

20:06:17

[Vietnam's Stock Market Upgrade Is Imminent, Flooding with Billions of Funds!] ⑴ Vietnam's Finance Minister recently expressed "high confidence" that the country's stock market will be upgraded from "Frontier Markets" to "Secondary Emerging Markets" status by global index company FTSE Russell next month. ⑵ Analysts estimate that this upgrade could bring an additional $5 billion to $7 billion in international capital inflows to Vietnam's $350 billion stock market. ⑶ Vietnam's stock market currently has approximately 1,600 listed companies with a total market capitalization of over $320 billion, accounting for nearly 74% of its gross domestic product (GDP), with an average daily trading volume of approximately $1.5 billion. ⑷ Despite a 20% drop in share prices in April due to market concerns about Trump's tariffs, the Vietnamese stock market has risen by over 30% year-to-date. ⑸ The market generally expects FTSE Russell to officially announce the upgrade in its annual global review next month. Vietnam has been on the index's watch list since 2018. ⑹ If the upgrade goes through, the weighting of Vietnam's stock market in the Secondary Emerging Markets Index is expected to increase in phases to promote a steady influx of funds.

20:06:05

[The UK will deploy fighter jets on NATO's eastern flank, and the British military said it will shoot down Russian drones if necessary] The UK will deploy Typhoon fighter jets in NATO's eastern flank operations. The Polish National Security Agency announced on social media that Polish President Nawrotsky has signed a resolution agreeing to the deployment of NATO member states' troops on Polish territory. The specific arrangements and details of the deployment decision involve confidential information and will not be disclosed. The British Ministry of Defense stated that the Royal Air Force's Typhoon fighter jets will participate in NATO's "Eastern Sentinel" operation and are expected to depart in the next few days. They will then perform flight missions over Poland and will receive support from the Royal Air Force Brize Norton Base's "Voyager" aerial refueling aircraft. Allied aircraft participating in this operation include Denmark's F-16 fighter jets, France's Rafale fighter jets and Germany's Typhoon fighter jets, which will together provide reinforcements for the Netherlands' F-35 and Poland's F-16 fighter jets. (CCTV News)

20:05:48

[ANZ: Wind Power Drives Significant Power Generation Growth, European Natural Gas Prices Fall] European natural gas prices fell below 32 euros per megawatt-hour in early trading, pressured by rising renewable energy generation and steady injections into natural gas inventories. ANZ Research analysts stated, "German electricity prices have fallen to their lowest level since December 31st last year, driven by expectations of a significant increase in renewable energy generation this week due to strong winds." Meanwhile, data from the European Gas Infrastructure Association, an industry organization, indicates that EU natural gas inventory levels have exceeded 80%. Traders are awaiting clarity on Western sanctions against Russia, and ample inventories are helping to alleviate market concerns about disruptions in Russian gas supplies.

20:05:45

With interest rate cuts imminent and inflation at stake, will USD/CAD retest 1.3723? Details>

20:04:39

Li Qiang conducted research in Gansu and Qinghai from September 15th to 16th. Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted research in Gansu and Qinghai from September 15th to 16th. Li Qiang stated that Gansu has a strong foundation in developing heavy ion technology and space technology. He emphasized the importance of supporting enterprises and research institutions to increase R&D investment, innovate incentive mechanisms for talent development, and strengthen core technological capabilities. He emphasized the importance of actively aligning with market demand, promoting the coordinated development of upstream and downstream industries, supporting greater participation from private enterprises, and accelerating the iterative upgrade of products and services. Li Qiang visited the North and South Mountain Environmental Greening Project observation points and the Waterwheel Expo Park to inspect afforestation and ecological protection and management of the Lanzhou section of the Yellow River. He commended the achievements of local ecological protection and restoration, and called for the coordinated protection and systematic management of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes, grasslands, and deserts to continuously enhance the hard-earned green heritage. He urged local officials to design and construct public spaces along the Yellow River to create more attractive destinations for residents to exercise, relax, and have fun. (CCTV News)

20:02:25

[Turkish Bond Market Update: High Yields and Huge Demand] 1. On Tuesday, the Turkish Ministry of Finance sold approximately 1.4 trillion liras of bonds in two bond issuances. Non-competitive bids from primary dealers totaled 196 million liras, while 13 billion liras of inflation-protected bonds were sold to state institutions. This indicates continued market demand for Turkish government bonds, particularly in the upcoming auction of inflation-protected bonds due on September 11, 2030, which saw non-competitive bids totaling 3.596 billion liras. 2. In its fixed-rate bond issuance due on September 5, 2035, the Ministry of Finance received 15.669 billion liras of non-competitive bids from primary dealers, but no sales were made to state institutions. This issuance faced significant market demand, providing support for subsequent yields. ⑶ It is worth noting that in the auction of inflation-protected bonds due on September 11, 2030, the Turkish Ministry of Finance ultimately issued bonds with a net value of 1.3505 billion liras, with an actual yield of 6.21%, reflecting investors' expectations of future inflation and confidence in the country's sovereign debt. ⑷ As for fixed-rate bonds due on September 5, 2035, the Turkish Ministry of Finance issued bonds with a net value of 6.3971 billion liras, with a coupon rate of 32.09%. This extremely high yield highlights Turkey's current financing costs and reflects the market's concerns about its long-term debt risks. Under such high financing costs, traders' psychological game and judgment of future economic trends will be key.

20:00:04

Brazil's unemployment rate in July - National Household Sample Survey

Previous : 5.80% Forecast : 5.70%

Published Value 5.60%

19:59:22

Colombia will communicate with the United States through diplomatic channels after being decertified.

19:57:50

Market speculation intensifies ahead of the data deluge. ⑴ Market data showed little change in overnight swaps, with the yield curve showing signs of a slight steepening as traders took a wait-and-see approach ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While some Treasury yields rose slightly, the 2-year bond performed relatively strongly, leading traders to take short positions in short-term swaps, betting on future monetary policy easing. ⑵ Despite a flurry of economic reports, overall market sentiment remained cautious. Yesterday's over $14.35 billion in corporate bond issuance has been priced in, and traders are preparing for the Fed's meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed is widely expected, but investors will closely monitor the statement to gauge whether it will move toward a more accommodative policy. The newly added voting members of the Fed may also hold more aggressive views on rate cuts. ⑶ Market focus is also on the upcoming retail sales data, seen as a key indicator of consumer resilience amid market concerns over Trump's tariff rhetoric. Meanwhile, European stocks fell as banks and insurance stocks declined, while U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, indicating that investors are more inclined to bet that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle at a time when the European Central Bank may end its easing cycle. ⑷ Asian stock markets had mixed performances, with the Nikkei index rising 0.3% to a record high, and technology stocks boosted by overnight gains in U.S. stocks. Chinese stocks fluctuated slightly as they weighed the progress of the trade war, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.4%, the CSI 300 Index down 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index down 0.03%. ⑸ International crude oil prices rose slightly as traders weighed the risks of Russian oil supply, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and expectations of a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. The U.S. dollar index fell, hitting a two-month low, as the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

19:56:58

[The US dollar weakened on Tuesday, and silver followed the strong rise of gold] On Tuesday, the price of silver briefly broke through $43 per troy ounce, reaching its highest level since 2011, a trend consistent with the strong rise of gold. Recent precious metal prices have benefited from the weakening US dollar. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and further implement loose policies before the end of the year. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty, continued inflows of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and industrial demand have also driven the growth of silver demand. More than half of global silver consumption comes from industries such as solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics.

19:56:41

[Goldman Sachs: Russia's oil production is expected to decline only slightly] Uncertainty related to the secondary tariffs on Russian crude oil supplies remains high, but Goldman Sachs expects Russia's oil production to decline only slightly. "Asian buyers continue to express their willingness to import Russian crude oil," said analysts. They pointed out that the greater risk comes from shrinking profits for producers and operational bottlenecks caused by existing sanctions. Goldman Sachs said that the Ukrainian drone attack has further exacerbated the risk - from August to September so far, the attack has caused Russia's refining capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day to stagnate. Analysts said that if refineries' crude oil processing volume declines and oil storage facilities or export channels reach their capacity limits, Russian upstream producers may be forced to cut production.

19:53:06

[Commerzbank: Aluminum prices may fluctuate sideways in the short term] The research department of Commerzbank stated that due to the intertwined influence of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices may fluctuate sideways in the short term. Aluminum prices broke through the $2,700 per ton mark last week, but are currently facing downward pressure. Analysts say that to curb overcapacity, aluminum industry investment is being regulated, which may also ease the decline in aluminum prices - aluminum production may stagnate or even decline slightly in the coming months.

19:52:34

[Lu Lei, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Attended the 14th China Payment and Clearing Forum] On September 16, 2025, Lu Lei, Member of the Party Committee and Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended and addressed the 14th China Payment and Clearing Forum. Lu Lei stated that in recent years, through the unremitting efforts of all parties in the industry, the quality and efficiency of payment services for the real economy have been further improved, industry governance has continued to deepen, financial infrastructure has provided strong support, high-level opening-up has continued to advance, and the construction of a modern payment system has achieved new results. Promoting payment interconnection and interoperability is a necessary path to achieving high-quality development in the payment industry. Following the interconnection of the mainland and Hong Kong Faster Payment Systems in June of this year, the unified cross-border QR code gateway went online for trial operation at the end of July. Adhering to the principles of public, inclusive, and universal access, the unified gateway supports qualified market institutions to access and conduct cross-border QR code payment services. The People's Bank of China will guide all parties in the industry to continue promoting cross-border payment interconnection and interoperability, further unblocking global capital networks and channels, promoting the construction of a more open, secure, and efficient domestic QR code payment network, and fostering a market environment of diversified development and healthy competition through industry self-discipline and market-based measures.

19:50:11

[Africa's largest wireless operator increases investment in AI infrastructure and plans to build data centers] Mupita, CEO of MTN Group, Africa's largest wireless operator, said in an interview that the group is in talks with companies in the United States and Europe and plans to build data centers on the African continent to power artificial intelligence services. Mupita said that the group will directly fund part of the investment required to expand artificial intelligence data centers on the African continent and is currently in discussions with potential global partners. Its plan is to build data center facilities and sign tenants to provide artificial intelligence computing services, and then rent computing power to other businesses and governments on the African continent. The group is also considering equipping data centers with its own hardware. MTN has begun construction of its first data center in Nigeria at an estimated cost of US$240 million.

19:49:32

[Survey: U.S. retirement funds are pouring into private assets on an unprecedented scale] A new report shows that regulatory and compliance requirements are driving U.S. retirement funds into private assets on an unprecedented scale. Analysts found that the top 20 U.S. pension funds alone hold approximately $5 trillion in private market exposure, and some funds have doubled their allocation to non-listed investments over the past decade. Within the broader context of the nation's $43.4 trillion in retirement assets, exposure to private assets is also rising - at the same time, the number of publicly listed companies in the United States continues to decline, while the number of private "unicorns" valued at over $1 billion continues to increase. Analysts including Andrew Silverman wrote in the report: "Investors are gaining exposure to private companies through 401(k) retirement plans, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and often without knowing it." They explained that "regulatory requirements, the availability of private equity financing and the willingness of large companies to acquire have combined to suppress initial public offerings (IPO) activity," becoming an important reason for this trend.

19:46:03

[The Spanish government and central bank raised their economic growth forecasts for 2025] Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo said that Spain's GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, higher than the previous forecast of 2.6%. The Bank of Spain predicts that the country's economy will grow by 2.6%, an increase from the 2.4% forecast in June, and higher than the 1.2% growth forecast for the 20 eurozone countries. Since 2021, the Spanish economy has outperformed other major European economies, supported by household spending, a recovery in tourism and falling energy prices. However, although domestic demand has strengthened compared to three months ago, the Bank of Spain still emphasized that its baseline expectations are still affected to a certain extent by multiple factors, including the euro exchange rate. In terms of inflation, the Bank of Spain also slightly raised its year-end inflation forecast to 2.5%, saying that the rise in inflation is mainly due to rising energy and food prices, while service industry inflation may be lower than expected. The bank expects Spain's inflation rate to slow to 1.7% in 2026.

19:42:04

[ING: The US dollar is likely to remain relatively weak this week] ING said in a research report that the US dollar is likely to remain relatively weak. The report pointed out that the US dollar started the week on a weak note, which may be related to the market's early positioning for the expected Fed rate cut later this week. ING said that the weakening of the US dollar was also affected by the mild external environment. Under the dual effect of business confidence remaining resilient and core borrowing costs expected to fall, global stock markets continued to rise slightly. The report wrote. Normally, this situation will prompt capital to flow into risky assets and non-US dollar markets, thereby reducing investors' demand for the safe-haven currency - the US dollar. ING said that the focus of the market on Tuesday will be on US retail sales data.

19:40:39

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Rebounds Beyond Expectations, Labor Costs and Industrial Production Rise Simultaneously] ⑴ The Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose by 1 point month-over-month to 26.1 in September, exceeding market expectations of 20.3. ⑵ Approximately 51.7% of analysts surveyed expected economic activity to remain stable, 37.2% expected an improvement, and 11.1% expected a deterioration. ⑶ The indicator of current economic conditions rose by 2.4 points to -28.8, while the inflation expectations indicator rose by 3.3 points to -3.4. ⑷ Hourly labor costs in the Eurozone rose by 3.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, slightly lower than the initial estimate of 3.7%, but higher than the 3.4% in the previous quarter. ⑸ Wages and salaries rose by 3.7% (compared to 3.5% in the first quarter), while non-wage costs increased by 3.4% (previously 3.2%). ⑹ Labor costs in the business sector rose by 4.0%, led by increases in construction (+4.7%), services (+4.3%), and industry (+3.3%). 7. The non-business economy grew by 2.7%. Labor cost growth accelerated in Germany to 3.5% (from 2.5% in the first quarter) and in the Netherlands to 6.0% (from 5.9% in the previous quarter). 8. Spain maintained its 3.7% growth rate, while Italy slowed to 3.8% (from 4.4% in the previous quarter) and France fell to 1.4% (from 2.0% in the previous quarter). 9. Eurozone industrial output grew by 0.3% month-over-month in July, reversing a revised 0.6% decline in the previous month and broadly in line with market expectations for a 0.4% increase. 10. Capital goods output rebounded sharply (1.3% vs. -0.8% in the previous quarter), with both durable consumer goods (1.1% vs. -0.5%) and non-durable consumer goods (1.5% vs. -4.2%) rebounding. 11. Intermediate goods output continued to grow by 0.5% (from 0.1% in the previous quarter), the fastest growth since March; energy product output fell by 2.9% (from 1.4% in the previous quarter). ⑿ Industrial output increased by 1.8% year-on-year in July, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June.

19:40:08

[Xiangjie S9T Cumulative Small Orders Exceed 40,000] On September 16th, Huawei held a new product launch for the Xiangjie S9T in Hangzhou. At the event, Zhang Jianyong, Party Secretary and Chairman of BAIC Group, stated that BAIC AII in Xiangjie will invest 20 billion yuan over the next three years to build a strategic alliance with Huawei for the Xiangjie brand. Richard Yu, Executive Director of Huawei and Chairman of the Device BG, revealed that cumulative deliveries of Hongmeng Zhixing have exceeded 930,000 units to date. Cumulative small orders for the Xiangjie S9T have exceeded 40,000 units.

19:40:01

Israel's economy shrank by 4% annualized in the second quarter, marking its first contraction in six quarters. (1) Israel's economy shrank by 4.0% annualized in the second quarter of 2025, exceeding the initial estimate of a 3.5% decline and ending five consecutive quarters of growth. (2) The economic downturn led to widespread business closures and weighed on consumer spending, exports, and investment. (3) This marked the first quarterly contraction since the 21.0% plunge in the fourth quarter of 2023. (4) Between April and June, private consumption fell by 4.4%, fixed investment plummeted by 12.7%, and public spending decreased by 1.0%. (5) Exports fell by 2.9%, while imports grew by 3.8%.

19:38:41

[French 10-Year Government Bond Yield Rises to 3.49%, Market Focus on Central Bank Interest Rate Meeting] ⑴ French 10-year government bond yields climbed to 3.49%, following a broad decline in European bonds. This followed an unexpected improvement in investor confidence in Germany and the eurozone. ⑵ The market is closely awaiting this week's packed schedule of interest rate meetings from several central banks. ⑶ After a nine-month pause, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to resume its easing cycle, cutting interest rates by at least 25 basis points. ⑷ The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged. ⑸ Recent European data shows solid economic growth and manageable risks, prompting the European Central Bank to hint that its interest rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end. ⑹ Despite Fitch's downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating last weekend, domestic investors' reaction was generally muted.

19:38:06

India's Sensex Index Closes Up 0.7%, Hitting a Nearly One-Month High. ⑴ India's BSE Sensex Index closed up 0.7% at 82,381 points on Tuesday, reaching its highest closing level since July 23, reversing the previous day's decline. ⑵ Markets rose broadly, driven by optimism about US-India trade talks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. ⑶ The US and Indian chief negotiators held talks that day to review the proposed bilateral trade agreement. ⑷ The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, a move that could attract foreign portfolio inflows. ⑸ The automobile and consumer durables sectors outperformed, driven by expectations of the implementation of the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates and increased festive demand. ⑹ Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Larsen & Toubro, Bharti Airtel, and Tata Steel were among the top gainers. ⑺ Asian Paints and Bajaj Finance were the only stocks to decline.

19:37:18

[Uranium Prices Fall from Two-Month High, Supply Disruptions Intertwine with Demand Outlook] ⑴ U.S. uranium futures prices fell to $75 per pound, down from a two-month high of $77 reached on September 8th, as the market reassessed the actual impact of supply disruptions. ⑵ Trump exempted uranium and other certain metals from country-specific tariffs effective September 8th, easing potential capacity pressures on domestic utilities. ⑶ Canada's Cameco, the world's second-largest uranium miner, lowered its annual production guidance due to delays in the expansion of its MacArthur mine in Saskatchewan. ⑷ Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom, the largest producer, announced a 10% production cut next year, citing volatility in the spot uranium market. ⑸ On the demand side, the World Nuclear Association report predicts that demand for uranium for nuclear power generation will grow by 28% by 2030. ⑹ This demand growth reflects governments' preference for nuclear power to achieve energy security goals and the continued rise in demand for data centers from software companies.

19:37:12

The spokesman said that the Israeli military issued an evacuation order for the evacuation of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah and said it would launch an attack in the next few hours.

19:36:48

[Analyst: The latest UK employment data reserves the possibility for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in November] Philip Shaw, an analyst at Investec Economics, said that the latest UK employment data reserves the possibility for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in November. The data showed that the UK unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7%; the average wage growth rate in the three months ending July slowed to 4.8% from 5.0% in the three months ending June. Shaw pointed out that this employment data reflects the weakness in the UK labor market. However, he also mentioned that given concerns that the UK inflation rate is still above the target level, the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025. Currently, investors are paying attention to the UK's August inflation data to be released on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England's interest rate decision meeting on Thursday - the market generally expects that this meeting will keep interest rates unchanged.

19:35:48

The survey shows that UK house prices are expected to rise by 2.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 (the results of the May survey were 3.5% and 4.0%).

19:35:48

Markets await retail sales data, with rate cut speculation heating up. ⑴ Macro markets were quiet ahead of the release of key retail sales data, with market participants cautiously observing and preparing for upcoming key economic indicators and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. US Treasury yields remained stable, with the 10-year yield fluctuating within a narrow 2.3 basis point range, signaling a wait-and-see approach as the market digests new information. ⑵ Trump's administration is actively pursuing three rate cuts within the 2025 dot plot, driven by speculation surrounding Fed appointments. While the market is pricing in a higher probability of two rate cuts, the possibility of three cuts is already partially priced in, making "selling rallies" a more attractive trading strategy. ⑶ Market traders are favoring covering short positions in 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds, targeting the 3.52%-3.56% and 4.03%-4.07% ranges, respectively. The expected trading range for the 10-year Treasury bond is between 4.07% and 4.01%. Tuesday will feature a flurry of key economic data releases, including retail sales and import prices (expected to rise 0.2% and remain flat, respectively), industrial output (expected to fall 0.1%), business inventories, and the NAHB Housing Market Index. There will also be a $13 billion auction of 20-year Treasury bonds. August retail sales are widely expected to show a modest increase, with core retail sales, excluding autos, projected to rise 0.4%. However, given the rebound in inflation expectations and market concerns fueled by Trump's tariff rhetoric, actual growth may be merely stagnant. Industrial output is expected to decline slightly by 0.1%, primarily dragged down by manufacturing. Despite recent factory surveys pointing to some improvement, a decline in manufacturing hours suggests businesses may be passing on costs to consumers. The trade price index is expected to remain largely unchanged, with import prices down 0.1% and export prices remaining flat. These data, calculated before tariffs, may not fully reflect the actual impact of tariffs on consumer prices, but they suggest that importers have not significantly absorbed the costs. ⑻ The NAHB Housing Market Index is expected to rise slightly to 33 points. Despite the slight improvement, overall pessimism remains. Mortgage rates have declined slightly but remain high, while existing home inventories have increased, raising market uncertainty. ⑼ Business inventories are expected to rise by 0.2% for the second consecutive month, possibly reflecting businesses restocking in anticipation of tariffs and inventory adjustments following previous tariff measures.

19:35:43

Israeli Defense Minister: Gaza will be destroyed if Hamas doesn't disarm. Following the launch of a large-scale ground offensive against Gaza City by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the 16th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz declared that the Gaza Strip would be destroyed if Hamas did not release detainees and disarm. During a visit to the 162nd Division's headquarters in Gaza City, Katz stated, "We want to control Gaza City because it is now the primary symbol of Hamas' rule over Gaza. If Gaza City falls today, they will fall too." The IDF issued a statement on the morning of the 16th stating that troops from two divisions were operating in Gaza City, and that Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir had entered the combat zone. The statement stated that, following recent preparatory strikes, the IDF entered the ground offensive phase in Gaza City early on the 16th, expanding its operations into the city's heartland. The Jerusalem Post reported earlier on the 16th that the IDF had "entered" Gaza City, citing reports that Israeli tanks had entered the city. Hamas has not yet responded to the above statement. (CCTV News)

19:33:54

[UK House Price Growth Slows] ⑴ The UK real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with several institutions predicting slower house price growth nationwide and in London than previously expected, improving affordability for first-time buyers. A recent survey shows that a staggering 92% of respondents believe affordability for first-time buyers will improve. ⑵ Despite the Bank of England's repeated interest rate cuts, market concerns that the Chancellor of the Exchequer may raise taxes in the upcoming budget to plug the fiscal gap, coupled with weakening job market momentum, have led to a forecast of 2.6% house price increases in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, a significant decline from the May forecasts of 3.5% and 4.0%, respectively. ⑶ In London specifically, the projected house price increase has been revised down from the May forecast of 3.0% and 4.0%, to 1.9% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. Analysts point out that policy stances on wealth creators and potential tax adjustments for high-net-worth individuals may affect the willingness of domestic and foreign investors to invest in the London market, thereby putting pressure on local housing prices.

19:32:39

Denmark may buy Boeing aircraft for Arctic surveillance, Defense Minister says

19:32:32

The US dollar and US Treasury bonds have both broken through their support levels. What is the market waiting for? The Federal Reserve is about to trigger a market reversal on Wednesday! Details>

19:27:45

US Treasury Secretary Benson & Shaw discusses inflation: Many exporters bear the brunt of tariffs, while AI boosts productivity. The job market is showing signs of equilibrium.

19:24:21

China's soybean oil port inventories as of September 16

Previous : 120.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 120.30

19:21:05

[Rate Cut Trap: US Stocks, Bonds, and Currency Face a Bubble Burst] ⑴ David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned that if the Federal Reserve's rate cut this week is interpreted by the market as a capitulation to political pressure and inconsistent with the Fed's own economic forecasts, the US stock, bond, and dollar markets will face significant risks. ⑵ Kelly pointed out that the Fed's own economic growth and inflation forecasts provide little reason to support a rate cut. He expects the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to only slightly downgrade the outlook for economic growth and the labor market, with inflation remaining above the 2% target through 2027. ⑶ According to the June 2025 SEP, Fed officials project the neutral interest rate (the median long-term federal funds rate) to be 3.0%, unchanged from March. However, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor showed that both the unemployment rate and the broad unemployment rate (U6) hit new highs since October 2021. Kelly emphasized that if the current US inflation rate is likely to exceed the Fed's target by 1.2 percentage points and continue to rise, while the unemployment rate is only 0.3 percentage points above target and remains stable, cutting interest rates in this situation could weaken demand, leading to a market bubble burst, and ultimately negatively impacting the stock market, bond market, and the US dollar. Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Matt Luzzetti predicted that this Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision meeting could see the first time since 1988 that three Fed governors will dissent, and it would also be the first meeting since September 2019 to see two-way dissent (i.e., dissent from both hawkish and dovish officials).

19:16:58

U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said on the issue of tariffs: We have many other powers we can use

19:16:52

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont on tariffs: I believe the Supreme Court will support the government

19:16:08

[Giant Downsizing: Sky's "Digital-First" Awakening] ⑴ Sky, the UK pay-TV giant with approximately 23,000 employees, is undergoing a major organizational restructuring. The company has revealed plans to lay off approximately 600 employees, representing approximately 2.5% of its total workforce. This move marks the end of a three-year product and platform investment cycle, with future strategies focused on improving service efficiency, simplifying the user experience, and enhancing reliability. ⑵ The layoffs are a key step in Sky's shift to a "digital-first" strategy. Currently, over 90% of TV subscriptions are made through internet platforms such as Sky Stream and Sky Glass, with satellite services becoming increasingly less important. Approximately 900 positions will be affected, resulting in the departure of approximately 600 employees, reflecting the profound reshaping of traditional business models by technological advances. ⑶ A Sky spokesperson stated that the company is shifting to a "digital-first" approach, delivering a next-generation experience to customers through continued investment in digital services, content, and product performance. This strategic shift highlights the evolution of the industry's competitive landscape and a keen insight into future market demand, aiming to attract and retain users with faster speed, simpler operation and more stable service.

19:15:04

[US Treasury Secretary Hints at Possible Rate Hike, Market Focus on Fed's Direction] ⑴ US Treasury Secretary Benson said he would consider raising interest rates if the former president believed inflation was a problem. ⑵ Benson said he hopes the Fed will keep pace with the market and observe whether its monetary policy is neutral or accommodative. ⑶ Benson mentioned that the former president believes the Fed is currently behind the curve and has begun addressing affordability issues. ⑷ Benson praised the assessment of former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, citing his strong academic background in monetary policy and deep understanding of the Fed, and held fruitful talks with him. ⑸ Benson noted that the front end of the yield curve has inverted, but long-end yields remain robust, and expected inflation to begin to decline.

19:14:46

U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: Long-term bond markets are well supported

19:10:48

U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: Long-term bond markets are well supported

19:10:40

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont on interest rates: Inflation is expected to start falling

19:10:35

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont on interest rates: The front end of the curve has inverted

19:09:50

US Treasury Secretary Benson: We will start working now to improve affordability

19:09:14

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont on the Federal Reserve: We will wait and see whether the Fed is neutral or accommodative

19:09:10

Treasury Secretary Benson: Trump willing to raise rates if he sees inflation as a problem

19:09:05

U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: I hope the Fed can catch up

19:09:00

US Treasury Secretary Bensont on the Federal Reserve: Trump believes the Fed is behind the situation

19:08:22

US Treasury Secretary Bensonte: The plan is for Milan to return to the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)

19:08:14

Spot Gold Technical Analysis: The 60-minute candlestick chart shows a significant widening of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong upward trend. Price Structure: The latest price is 3697.17, just shy of the high of 3697.77, indicating that upward selling pressure is primarily driven by the resonance between psychological barriers and the upper Bollinger Band. Bollinger Bands: Upper Band 3708.10, Middle Band 3672.29, Lower Band 3636.48. An upward movement between the upper band and the moving average is a hallmark of a strong trend. A successful breakout above 3708.10 and a retest without breaking below would trigger a technical signal for an upward extension. Conversely, a short-term rally followed by a decline would establish 3672.29 (the middle Bollinger Band) as the first level of dynamic support, forming a support band alongside the horizontally congested area at 3640. MACD: DIFF 10.23, DEA 9.58, histogram 1.31, a bullish momentum structure above the zero axis. The bars have slightly converged since the peak, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of strength and energy turnover, which matches the high-level consolidation of the K-line near the historical high. RSI (14): Reading 68.75, close to the overbought threshold of 70, reflecting the coexistence of short-term overheating and high-level blunting of upward momentum. Key position analysis: Resistance levels focus on 3708.10 and the 3700 integer level; support levels focus on 3672.29, 3640, and the previous low range of 3626.58-3613.55.

19:07:52

Treasury Secretary Benson & Shaw on the Fed's Responsibilities: Inflation, Growth, and the Tradeoff Between Them

19:07:33

US Treasury Secretary Bensont on Bullard: The meeting went well

19:07:27

US Treasury Secretary Bensont on Bullard: He knows the Fed very well

19:07:25

US Treasury Secretary Benson: There is nothing unusual about Milan's departure from the White House (to take up a position at the Federal Reserve)

19:04:37

[Australian Dollar Hits Ten-Month High, Multiple Factors May Harbor Concerns] ⑴ The Australian Dollar recently hit a ten-month high of 0.6677 against the US Dollar, primarily driven by falling US Treasury yields and the US dollar. ⑵ With the opening of the European market, selling pressure emerged around 0.6660, and the rebound in the US dollar put some pressure on the Australian Dollar. ⑶ At the opening of the New York market, the Australian Dollar fell slightly against the US Dollar, but gains in stocks and gold, as well as a decline in the US Dollar against the RMB, provided support. ⑷ A retreat against the Japanese Yen to around 97.80 also kept the Australian Dollar near flat during the session. ⑸ However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed signs of divergence, and a doji pattern appeared on the daily chart, potentially signaling potential concerns for Australian Dollar bulls. ⑹ This week's release of US retail sales, industrial output, import and export price indices, and the September NAHB Housing Market Index will be key risk factors for the market.

19:02:21

Spain's economic resilience is evident, with both inflation and deficits declining. (1) The Bank of Spain expects third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.6%-0.7% quarter-on-quarter, demonstrating robust economic expansion. (2) The institution raised its full-year GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.6%, higher than its previous estimate of 2.4%, but maintained its GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 1.8% and 1.7% respectively. (3) The inflation forecast for 2025 was raised to 2.5%, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4%, but lower than the 2.9% projected for 2024, indicating that inflationary pressures are gradually easing. (4) Notably, the Bank of Spain lowered its 2025 budget deficit as a percentage of GDP forecast to 2.5%, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 2.8%, indicating an improvement in the fiscal situation. ⑸ It is expected that Spain's debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 100.7% by the end of 2025, then fall to 100.4% by the end of 2026, and further fall to 100% by the end of 2027, showing the government's efforts in controlling debt.

19:00:55

[Rate Cut Expectations Rising: Wall Street Traders' Heartbeat and Market Pulse] ⑴ The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with institutions widely expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.9%, highlighting strong market expectations for a shift in monetary policy. ⑵ The latest labor market data released for August showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, while inflationary pressures continue to moderate. These factors provide the Federal Reserve with greater policy room to maneuver and enable it to shift more quickly to a neutral monetary policy stance. ⑶ In response to this favorable data environment, several prominent institutions have adjusted their forecasts for the extent of interest rate cuts through 2025. Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, among others, predict a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by year-end. Forecasts from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays also point to a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points, typically consisting of three cuts, with the initial cut expected in September. (4) Other institutions believe the pace of rate cuts may be more modest. Macquarie and Nomura Securities expect a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, consisting of two cuts, mainly in September and October or September and December. Bank of America Global Research and HSBC hold similar views, predicting a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points, with cuts in September and December. (5) Notably, two independent research units within UBS Group have offered even more aggressive forecasts. UBS Global Research projects a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by the first half of 2026, starting in September. UBS Global Wealth Management also predicts a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by the end of the first half of 2026, also starting with a cut in September. Standard Chartered Bank anticipates a single 50 basis point rate cut in September. (6) The widespread market expectation of a rate cut, coupled with signs of a cooling labor market and slowing inflation, suggests that monetary policy is at a critical turning point. Trader sentiment and institutional forecasts paint a picture of a loosening monetary policy, which will have a profound impact on future financial market trends.

18:59:28

United Airlines CEO: Demand shows economy is better than statistics reflect

18:55:19

[$15 Billion Lawsuit! Trump's Remarks Stir Up Public Opinion] ⑴ Trump has filed a $15 billion lawsuit targeting the New York Times and several of its reporters, and also implicating Penguin Random House. The lawsuit accuses the Times of interfering in the 2024 presidential election and spreading "false and defamatory content" about Trump. ⑵ Trump has previously used social media to call the New York Times a "virtual mouthpiece" for the "radical left-wing Democratic Party." The 85-page lawsuit details alleged misconduct by the Times, including support for his 2024 opponent and publication of books about his finances. ⑶ This is not the first time Trump has taken legal action against the media. Over the past year, he reached settlements with ABC News and Paramount Worldwide over their reporting. This lawsuit further highlights his ongoing tensions with various media organizations, whose reporting he has repeatedly criticized as "fake news" on social media. (4) This lawsuit can also be seen as a market risk signal, showing that the game between politicians and mainstream media may have a potential impact on the public opinion environment and even future market sentiment.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3658.04	13.77 (0.38%)
XAG	42.236	0.443 (1.06%)
CONC	62.67	-0.59 (-0.93%)
OILC	66.95	-0.51 (-0.76%)
USD	97.498	0.142 (0.15%)
EURUSD	1.1768	-0.0017 (-0.14%)
GBPUSD	1.3503	-0.0051 (-0.38%)
USDCNH	7.1125	0.0058 (0.08%)

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