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2025-11-03 Monday

2025-11-04

13:11:49

[Euro Gets a Breather, but Overall Weakness Remains! Strong Dollar Suppresses Exchange Rate Rebound] 1. During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the EUR/USD exchange rate was largely flat, currently trading within a narrow range of 1.1521-39. The exchange rate previously tested and successfully held the key short-term support level of 1.1520, gaining temporary breathing room. However, the overall trend remains weak, with upward potential significantly limited. 2. The continued strength of the US dollar is the main factor suppressing the euro. Following the Fed's interest rate meeting, the dollar's momentum remains strong, with the dollar index continuing its upward trend and currently approaching the key resistance level near 100.25. Whether this level is breached or not will have a significant impact on the euro's short-term trend. 3. Increased policy divergence within the Fed has provided new support for the dollar. Signals from several officials have downplayed market expectations for a December rate cut, making dollar interest rates attractive in the short term, which continues to put pressure on the euro. 4. Market attention will turn to the Eurozone economic data to be released later today. The final reading of the EU's October HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released on Monday. The survey forecast is 50.0, and the performance of this key level will directly affect the euro's exchange rate. From a technical perspective, the euro/dollar pair has support at 1.1520 and 1.1392, while on the upside, 1.1670 and 1.1918 constitute significant resistance. Although the exchange rate has temporarily stabilized, given the continued strength of the US dollar, any rebound is likely to face significant resistance, and the overall weak trend is unlikely to change in the short term.

13:00:03

HSBC Manufacturing PMI for India in October

Previous : 58.40 Forecast : 58.30

Published Value 59.20

Previous

12:40:03

Indonesia's core CPI annual rate in October

Previous : 2.19% Forecast : 2.18%

Published Value 2.36%

Previous

12:30:01

Indonesia's CPI annual rate in October

Previous : 2.65% Forecast : 2.65%

Published Value 2.86%

Previous

12:29:59

Indonesia's CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.21% Forecast : 0.07%

Published Value 0.28%

Previous

12:14:29

Indonesia's trade balance in September

Previous : 54.90 Forecast : 47.90

Published Value 43.40

Previous

12:14:25

Indonesia's annual rate of imports in October

Previous : -6.56% Forecast : 1%

Published Value 7.17%

Previous

12:06:16

Indonesia's annual export rate in October

Previous : 5.78% Forecast : 7.72%

Published Value 11.41%

Previous

11:39:22

[Bank of England Expected to Hold Rates Steady This Week, Key Turning Point in Rate Cuts] 1. The Bank of England will hold its next policy meeting this Thursday, with the market widely expecting it to pause its rate cuts and maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4%. If this expectation comes true, it will be the first time the Bank of England has slowed the pace of monetary policy easing since it began its rate-cutting cycle last year. However, due to recent weak inflation and wage data, some analysts are open to the possibility of an unexpected rate cut at this meeting. 2. Looking back at the last policy meeting in August, the Bank of England decided to cut rates by 25 basis points by a narrow 5-4 vote, highlighting significant disagreements within the Monetary Policy Committee. At that time, Governor Bailey publicly stated in September that the previous pace of "cutting rates every three months" had become "more uncertain," suggesting that future interest rate decisions would rely more on data performance rather than a predetermined path. 3. Recent economic data has introduced new uncertainties to the market. In September, UK inflation did not rise to 4% as the Bank of England had expected, while wage growth slowed further and the unemployment rate rose. These signals have reignited market expectations for a rate cut in November. Financial market pricing on Friday indicated that investors saw about a one-third probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on November 6th, while the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year rose to two-thirds. Goldman Sachs also changed its stance last week, predicting that the Bank of England would take action at this meeting. However, most opinions still lean towards the view that the Bank of England will choose to wait and see this week. A recent market survey shows that slightly more than half of the economists surveyed expect the central bank not to cut rates again before 2026. James Smith, an economist at ING Group in the Netherlands, predicts that this meeting will again result in a 5-4 split vote, but the result will be to keep rates unchanged. He emphasized that whether action will be taken in December remains unknown and will largely depend on the content of the budget announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on November 26th. Nomura Securities economist George Buckley also pointed out that "this is not an easy decision for the Monetary Policy Committee," and he expects a 5-4 vote to cut rates at this meeting. According to his analysis, Governor Bailey, the two deputy governors, and the two external members may jointly support easing policy. Regardless of the outcome, this meeting will serve as a crucial window into how the Bank of England balances slowing economic growth with easing inflationary pressures.

11:09:07

The Bank of England is likely to slow its rate-cutting pace this week, which began last year, and will probably keep current rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. This would be the first pause since its policy shift, although recent weaker inflation and wage data have prompted some analysts to expect another rate cut. The Bank of England's last action was in August, when it decided to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% by a narrow 5-4 majority. Since then, Governor Bailey has stated that the previous pace of "one rate cut per quarter" has become more uncertain. However, September data showed that inflation did not rebound as expected, while wage growth slowed and unemployment rose, reigniting market expectations for a rate cut in November. Currently, financial markets believe there is about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut at this meeting. This expectation has also led institutions such as Goldman Sachs to change their stance and predict action in November. However, most economists surveyed still expect the central bank to remain on hold until 2026. ING economist James Smith predicts that this meeting will again result in a 5-4 split, but the result will be to keep rates unchanged. He believes that whether action will be taken in December remains uncertain, and will depend in part on the budget announced by Chancellor Reeves on November 26. Nomura economist George Buckley also acknowledges the complexity of the decision-making process, but he expects the meeting to pass a rate cut by a 5-4 vote, with President Bailey and two vice presidents likely joining the two external committee members who have previously voted in favor of rate cuts.

10:58:38

[Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng: Promote the replacement of consumer terminals such as AI mobile phones and AI computers, and accelerate the research and application of new-generation intelligent terminals such as humanoid robots and brain-computer interfaces] Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published an article entitled "Accelerating the Promotion of Artificial Intelligence Empowering New Industrialization" in the magazine *Party Building*. Li Lecheng stated that the Ministry will deeply implement the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" strategy. Manufacturing is the foundation of a nation and the basis for its strength, and it is the main battlefield for the application of artificial intelligence. The Ministry will improve the policy system, study and issue implementation opinions on the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" special action, deploy intelligent transformation tasks for key industries, key links, and key areas, and release and implement guidelines for the application of artificial intelligence in manufacturing enterprises. The Ministry will accelerate the intelligent transformation of key industries, formulate guidelines for the intelligent transformation of key manufacturing industries, regularly carry out "deep empowerment" activities, and build online and offline supply and demand matching platforms. The Ministry will promote the intelligent upgrading of the entire manufacturing process, deeply embed artificial intelligence technology into the core links of production and manufacturing, and expand application scenarios such as intelligent assisted design, virtual simulation, and fault early warning. Accelerate the replacement of consumer terminals such as AI smartphones and AI computers, expedite the research and development and application of next-generation intelligent terminals such as humanoid robots and brain-computer interfaces, and promote the deep integration of large-scale models with intelligent connected new energy vehicles, CNC machine tools, and other technologies. Expedite the design, development, testing, and deployment of intelligent agents, and explore a multi-agent collaborative ecosystem.

09:58:53

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: By 2027, a number of leading water-saving equipment enterprises and manufacturing single-item champions, as well as specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises will be cultivated] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Water-Saving Equipment (2025-2030)," which states that by 2027, breakthroughs will be achieved in water-saving equipment for key areas such as water supply, water use, and recycling. A number of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights will be mastered, and technologies and equipment such as efficient circulating cooling, high-end membrane separation, and intelligent water management will be industrialized. The water-saving equipment standard system will be further improved, and a number of leading water-saving equipment enterprises and manufacturing single-item champions, as well as specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, will be cultivated. The establishment of a pilot-scale platform for water-saving equipment will be promoted, forming a good ecosystem for the coordinated development of large, medium, and small enterprises and the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain. By 2030, a comprehensive and technologically advanced water-saving equipment system will be built, the supply capacity of high-performance, high-efficiency, and high-reliability water-saving equipment will be continuously enhanced, and the manufacturing of water-saving equipment will reach the world's advanced level.

09:45:01

China's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : 50.90

金银 石油

Published Value 50.60

Previous

09:36:48

[USD/JPY Fluctuates at High Levels as Market Digests Fed Rate Cut Expectations] 1. During Monday's Asian session, USD/JPY fluctuated at high levels, currently trading around 154.10, not far from the over eight-month high of 154.44 reached last week. Although market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December remain, recent hawkish signals from several Fed officials have raised doubts among investors about the timing of the rate cut, providing some support for the dollar. 2. Data from the interest rate futures market shows that traders currently expect a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, a significant drop from 93% a week ago. This change reflects a clear division within the Fed regarding whether to initiate a rate cut in December, weakening the previous one-sided market expectation of an imminent easing policy. 3. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent statements on future rate hikes have become more cautious, softening his hawkish stance and putting pressure on the yen. Although the Bank of Japan hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in the short term and stated that it would monitor wage growth and the yen's exchange rate to determine the timing, this expectation did not provide effective support for the yen. 4. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair faces resistance in the 154.40-45 range, while support levels are seen at 153.65 and 153.25-30. With the Japanese market closed for a holiday, the pair fluctuated between 153.95 and 154.24 during the Asian trading session. Market analysts believe that verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may temporarily slow the dollar's rise, but is unlikely to fundamentally reverse the current trend.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3958.23

-42.93

(-1.07%)

XAG

47.347

-0.712

(-1.48%)

CONC

60.52

-0.53

(-0.87%)

OILC

64.37

-0.45

(-0.69%)

USD

100.140

0.276

(0.28%)

EURUSD

1.1481

-0.0038

(-0.33%)

GBPUSD

1.3046

-0.0093

(-0.71%)

USDCNH

7.1334

0.0090

(0.13%)