Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

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Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

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New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-04-08 Wednesday

2026-04-10

19:23:37

[British Foreign Secretary: Two-Week Ceasefire a Key Step Towards Restoring Regional Stability and Global Shipping] ⑴ British Foreign Secretary Cooper said on Wednesday that the two-week ceasefire is a key step toward establishing a degree of security and stability in the region and allowing international shipping and the global economy to return to normal. ⑵ She emphasized that the proposed negotiations must result in a complete end to the conflict and ensure that Iran no longer continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz or its neighbors, while calling on all parties in Lebanon to immediately cease hostilities. ⑶ Cooper explicitly demanded that Iran immediately cease all mine-laying, drone attacks, and other actions that obstruct commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑷ She stated that the UK will work with the shipping, insurance, and energy industries to restore confidence in the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as possible. ⑸ From a psychological perspective, as one of the major shipping and insurance centers, the UK's official statement provides the market with a signal of third-party coordination beyond the US and Iran. However, the specific measures and timetable required to restore confidence are still unclear, and shipping stakeholders will remain cautious until substantial security guarantees are in place. (6) Future focus will be on what specific measures the UK will introduce to promote the normalization of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether insurance premiums for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will be reduced as the situation eases.

19:08:31

[Nordic Electricity Forward Contracts Fall Along with Global Energy Market, But Hydropower Shortages Limit Decline] ⑴ On Wednesday, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, global energy markets declined, and Nordic forward electricity prices fell accordingly. The agreement stipulated that Iran would suspend its blockade of oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Nordic quarterly baseload electricity contracts fell €3.30 to €48.30 per megawatt-hour, a drop of 6.4%; annual contracts fell €2.15 to €46.80 per megawatt-hour, a drop of 4.4%. ⑶ Mind Energy analysts pointed out that the sharp decline in related markets is affecting the Nordic region. European forward prices have also fallen sharply due to lower oil and gas prices. The Dutch TTF hub near-month contract fell nearly 17% to a one-month low, with oil prices falling below $100 per barrel. ⑷ However, declining water reserves in the hydropower-dependent Nordic region limited the decline in electricity prices. Mind Energy stated that the Easter weather forecast showed a significantly drier trend, further widening the hydropower deficit. (5) Data shows that Nordic water reserves are 29.49 TWh below normal levels, compared to 27.22 TWh below normal levels on Thursday. Meteorologists say that high pressure will dominate Nordic weather for the next two weeks, with Scandinavia experiencing mainly dry and mild weather. (6) From a trading psychology perspective, the widespread drop in energy prices triggered by the ceasefire news has been transmitted to the Nordic electricity market, but the region's unique hydrological conditions have acted as a buffer. This suggests that investors should consider local supply and demand fundamentals when assessing the impact of the receding geopolitical risks on electricity prices. (7) The focus going forward will be on the actual precipitation in the Nordic region over the next two weeks and the trend in hydropower reserves, which will determine whether electricity prices will receive additional regional support beyond the energy market rebound.

19:03:05

[The 7th Round of Inspections by the 20th CPC Central Committee Announced] With the approval of the CPC Central Committee, the 7th round of inspections by the 20th CPC Central Committee will conduct routine inspections of the Party organizations of 36 units, including the Central Social Work Department, the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Water Resources, the National Health Commission, the Ministry of Veterans Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Management, the State Bureau for Letters and Visits, the National Healthcare Security Administration, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the National Immigration Administration, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the State Post Bureau, the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention, the State Administration of Mine Safety, the State Fire and Rescue Administration, the National Medical Products Administration, the China Earthquake Administration, the China Meteorological Administration, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the China National Committee on Ageing, the China Academy of Engineering Physics, the China Association for Science and Technology, the China Law Society, the China Disabled Persons' Federation, the Red Cross Society of China, and the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. (Xinhua News Agency)

19:00:55

[US Mortgage Rates Fall Slightly to 6.51%, First Decline Since Iran War, But Home Purchase Applications Still 7% Lower Year-over-Year] ⑴ The Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday that the most popular US home loan rates fell slightly last week for the first time since the start of the Iran war. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contract rate fell 6 basis points to 6.51%, down from a seven-month high the previous week. ⑵ Despite this, refinancing applications fell 2.8%, and home purchase applications, while rising about 1% from the previous week, were 7% lower than the same period last year. ⑶ Since the start of the US-Israel war on February 28, mortgage rates have climbed a cumulative 42 basis points as the war pushed up yields on Treasury bonds used to set mortgage rates, while soaring fuel prices also impacted consumers' daily budgets. ⑷ Housing affordability has been a key political issue for the Trump administration. Earlier this year, Trump proposed banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes and requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower borrowing rates. (5) From a psychological perspective, the slight decline in mortgage rates has not yet translated into an effective recovery in demand. Home buying activity remains significantly weaker than the same period last year, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude among potential homebuyers under the dual pressure of borrowing costs and housing prices. Even if there are signs of a ceasefire in the Middle East, the recovery in the real estate market may lag behind the financial markets. (6) Future focus will be on the specific details of the housing policy to be announced by the Trump administration on Wednesday, and the further trend of mortgage rates after the ceasefire announcement. These two factors will determine the pace of recovery in the spring homebuying season.

19:00:12

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending April 3

Previous : 278.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 276

Previous

19:00:12

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending April 3 in the United States

Previous : 159.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 161.10

Previous

19:00:12

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending April 3 week-on-week

Previous : -10.40% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.80%

Previous

19:00:12

Brazil's IGP-DI inflation rate for March - Think tank FGV

Previous : -0.84% Forecast : 1.12%

Published Value 1.14%

Previous

19:00:07

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending April 3 in the United States

Previous : 946.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 919.90

Previous

19:00:02

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending April 3

Previous : 6.57% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.51%

Previous

18:51:26

[ExxonMobil: Middle East Conflict Boosts Q1 Upstream Revenue by Up to $2.9 Billion, But Production Drops 6%, Downstream Performance Dragged Down by Time Lag Effects] ⑴ ExxonMobil said on Wednesday that rising oil and gas prices due to the US-Israel war against Iran could boost its first-quarter upstream revenue by up to $2.9 billion, outweighing the negative impact of disruptions to some Middle Eastern oil and gas production. ⑵ However, downstream revenue may be impacted by approximately $5.3 billion due to time lag effects and other factors. The company expects subsequent quarters' revenue to be boosted as oil and gas cargoes are delivered. ⑶ The company disclosed that due to the impact of the war, first-quarter oil and gas production will decrease by 6% compared to the fourth quarter, which produced 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. By 2025, assets in Qatar and the UAE will account for 20% of Exxon's global oil production. ⑷ Time lag effects could reduce downstream first-quarter revenue by $3.3 billion to $4.1 billion compared to the fourth quarter. CFO Neil Hansen stated that this unusually large negative time lag impact is temporary, stemming from accounting rules for transaction plans. As the underlying transactions are completed, these effects will dissipate over time and generate a net positive profit. (5) The company also stated that it will record an impairment of $600 million to $800 million due to supply disruptions preventing the transport of some hedging-related physical goods. (6) From a trading psychology perspective, Exxon's earnings guidance reveals the dual effects of war on energy companies: upstream companies benefit from soaring prices, but production losses and downstream time lag mismatches constitute a substantial drag. This structural divergence may also be reflected in the quarterly results of other international oil giants. (7) The focus going forward will be on the final figures for each impact in the company's official financial report on May 1, and the pace of profit release from subsequent quarterly hedging transactions.

18:40:56

Canada's leading indicator monthly rate for March

Previous : 0.25% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.07%

Previous

18:38:08

[US Treasuries surged overnight with high trading volume, yield curve steepened; crude oil plunged $18; dollar index fell below 99] ⑴ Following news of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, US Treasuries surged overnight, the yield curve steepened slightly, and trading volume was huge. As of 18:16 Beijing time on Wednesday, 765,000 contracts of 10-year Treasury futures had been traded. ⑵ Crude oil was sold off, falling $18 to $94.93 per barrel, with an intraday low of $91.05, the lowest level since March 26. ⑶ In the stock market, the S&P 500 rose about 180 points, or 2.7%, while overseas stock markets saw even larger gains. The Eurozone Stoxx 50 rose about 4%, the Nikkei 225 surged 5.4%, and the CSI 300 rose 3.5%. (4) German bonds also rose, gaining more than 1.5 points from the settlement price. The dollar index fell back to 98.84, and major currencies strengthened. The euro was at 1.1686 against the dollar, the pound at 1.3435 against the dollar, and the dollar at 158.42 against the yen. (5) The market reaction to the ceasefire news exhibited typical characteristics of a reassuring rebound: safe-haven assets (US Treasuries, German Treasuries) and risk assets (equities) rose in tandem, while crude oil and the dollar fell simultaneously, indicating that investors are unwinding defensive positions previously established due to the escalation of the conflict. (6) The focus going forward will be on the actual resumption of traffic during the ceasefire and the development of the situation two weeks later, which will determine whether the current repricing of asset prices is sustainable.

18:28:10

[Copper Prices Jump to Three-Week High as Ceasefire Eases Economic Concerns, But Institutions Warn Rebound is Fragile] ⑴ On Wednesday, copper prices jumped to a three-week high after US President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, easing market concerns about a global economic slowdown caused by the Middle East conflict. ⑵ Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 3.5% to $12,737.50 per tonne, hitting a high of $12,755.50 during the session, the highest since March 18, after copper prices fell 7.6% in March due to economic concerns stemming from the war with Iran. ⑶ Sukden Financial, in a report on base metals, noted that the ceasefire may lead to a short-term easing of energy risk premiums, but the agreement appears fragile and conditional, and the market may remain driven by news rather than a sustained recovery in risk appetite. ⑷ The discount of spot copper to three-month copper widened to $89.50 per tonne from $84.60 per tonne on Tuesday, indicating that the metal is not in short supply, and copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses have risen to their highest level since March 2018. (5) Aluminum prices remained flat at $3,475 per tonne, after previously surging due to disruptions in transporting aluminum from Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz to export markets. Damage to smelters in the UAE and Bahrain caused by Iranian attacks late last month led to supply shortages. (6) From a psychological perspective, the broad-based rebound in base metals reflects market relief at the fading of tail risks. However, structural signals such as widening discounts and high inventories indicate that the fundamental supply and demand situation has not improved in tandem, casting doubt on the sustainability of the rebound. (7) Future focus will be on the actual restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire and the progress of smelting capacity recovery in the Gulf region. These two factors will determine the pace of supply recovery in industrial metals and the true extent of the decline in risk premiums.

18:27:02

[Bond Market Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels; Energy Shock Reshapes Inflation Expectations; Rate Cut Bets Faded] ⑴ Global bond markets may rebound, but are unlikely to fully recover the losses from the war-induced sell-off, as energy prices and inflation will remain high for a longer period even with peace. ⑵ Investors say that previous bets on rate cuts this year by economies such as the US, UK, and Norway have disappeared and will not return. Some even believe that a ceasefire may actually shift the risk toward rate hikes, as the likelihood of a severe oil shortage dragging down global growth has decreased. ⑶ The energy shock has exacerbated inflation concerns, reflecting major economies' failure to bring inflation back to target levels over the years. Andrew Lilly, chief interest rate strategist at Barenjoy, points out that even if such events are resolved, they change market expectations for the next move by most central banks. ⑷ On Wednesday, both the Reserve Bank of India and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept their key policy rates unchanged, but laid the groundwork for further rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that any significant second-round inflation effects or signs of rising medium-term inflation expectations would require a decisive and timely increase in interest rates to re-anchor inflation expectations. (5) Regarding market pricing, federal funds futures, which initially anticipated two rate cuts in 2026, now suggest only a 50% probability of a single rate cut. Prashant Neunaha, senior interest rate strategist at TD Securities, stated that central banks will remain highly vigilant to prevent supply shocks from triggering higher inflation expectations, and rate cuts are no longer under consideration. (6) Japan's path also leans towards rate hikes. Nomura Securities chief strategist Matsuzawa stated that the Bank of Japan was already fully willing to raise rates without Middle East uncertainty, and the ceasefire provides ample justification for a rate hike in April. (7) In terms of trading psychology, the market's previous reassuring rebound from the ceasefire pushed bond yields down, but only to levels seen in mid-March. Investors are now digesting a more persistent reality: the energy cost structure has shifted upward, the threshold for central bank rate cuts has significantly increased, and the pre-war pricing benchmark in the bond market may have irreversibly changed. (8) Future focus will be on how central banks assess the effects of a second round of inflation and the evolution of the geopolitical situation after the ceasefire expires. These two factors will determine the final anchoring position of the yield curve.

18:25:46

[US-Iran War Costs $500 Million Daily, Total Expenditure May Exceed $30 Billion in Five Weeks] ⑴ Since the US launched its military strikes against Iran in late February, the cost of the war is estimated to have reached tens of billions of dollars, with some think tank experts estimating an average daily cost of $500 million. ⑵ Elaine McCasker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former senior budget official at the Department of Defense, estimates that the cost within five weeks of the start of the military operation is between $22.3 billion and $31 billion. This figure includes the cost of deploying additional US military assets to the Middle East starting in December 2025, but does not include a full assessment of combat losses that can only be confirmed after the war ends. ⑶ Mark Cansien, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps officer, estimates that the US military is costing an average of $500 million per day, with combat and infrastructure losses reaching at least $1.4 billion in just six days. ⑷ Cansien also points out that due to the US military's strict restrictions on disclosing details, the actual cost of the war may be even higher. (5) From a psychological perspective, the high and continuously expanding war spending is reshaping market expectations for the US fiscal deficit and inflationary pressures. This may indirectly affect the pricing of dollar assets and the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy space, especially given that oil prices remain high and inflation has not yet subsided. (6) Future focus will be on the duration of the war and the scale of subsequent budget increases. These two factors will directly determine the final size of the US fiscal burden and its spillover effects on global capital flows.

18:25:27

[US Think Tank Warns: Trump May Impose Additional Tariffs if South Korea Receives Exemption from Iran; Refining Company Equity Structure Becomes Key Constraint] ⑴ Victor Cha, director of Korean affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said on Wednesday that if South Korea receives an exemption from Iran to allow its ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, US President Trump may take retaliatory measures against South Korea, such as imposing additional tariffs or punitive tariffs. ⑵ The think tank pointed out that even if Iran agrees to allow passage, only a few stranded ships will be able to pass through the strait, as most ships are owned by the US or Saudi Arabia. Besides SK Energy, three of South Korea's four major refining companies are held by US or Saudi entities. ⑶ Given that the South Korean government's oil reserves can last for about 26 days, South Korea is unlikely to take steps to secure an exemption from Iran. ⑷ From a psychological perspective, this potential geopolitical and trade policy linkage risk is forcing South Korean importers to carefully weigh short-term supply security against long-term tariff costs, while US-owned refining companies are more inclined to comply with the US position rather than actively seeking exemptions. (5) The focus in the future will be on the rate at which South Korea’s oil reserves are being depleted and whether the U.S. will send a clear signal on the issue of exemptions. These two factors will determine whether South Korea will change its current strategy of not seeking exemptions.

18:09:10

[Preview of the Fed's March Meeting Minutes: Oil Price Shock Pushes Up Inflation Expectations, Policymakers Face Dilemma Between Rate Hikes and Growth Protection] ⑴ At the March meeting, Fed officials were aware that the Iraq War would push up this year's inflation rate. At that time, the global oil crisis entered its third week, with benchmark oil prices rising from about $70 to $100 per barrel. Almost all policymakers included expectations of rising inflation in 2026 in their post-meeting forecasts. ⑵ Now, with the war in its second month and oil prices up by about 10%, previous hopes for a swift end to the conflict and a rapid drop in oil prices may be being replaced by other economic scenarios, typically mentioned in staff briefings on the economic outlook and likely detailed in the meeting minutes. ⑶ The Fed kept its policy rate unchanged in March, within the 3.5% to 3.75% range, offering little indication of a near-term rate adjustment. Investors currently expect the Fed's policy rate to remain unchanged until at least the end of 2027. ⑷ Even before the war broke out, some Fed officials were concerned that inflation was stagnating about one percentage point above the 2% target and indicated they were prepared to signal the possibility of a rate hike. (5) The meeting minutes may reveal whether internal sentiment is further tilting towards interest rate hikes as policymakers weigh whether the oil price shock poses a greater threat to the inflation target or to economic growth and employment, especially given consumers' concerns about rising gasoline prices and energy-driven costs, which could trigger spending changes and weaken overall economic momentum. (6) From a trading psychology perspective, market expectations for rate cuts have been continuously revised. If the meeting minutes show a stronger inclination towards rate hikes, it could further depress risk asset valuations. Whether the reassuring rebound brought about by the Middle East ceasefire can be sustained will depend on the degree to which subsequent inflation data matches the actual policy path of the Federal Reserve. (7) Future focus will be on the specific descriptions of the economic scenarios for staff in the meeting minutes, as well as the details of internal discussions among policymakers regarding the threshold for rate hikes. These will be key clues for judging the direction of the Federal Reserve's next move.

18:01:23

[Middle East crude oil spot premiums plummet, Dubai premium hits one-month low, Brent crude falls below $100] ⑴ On Wednesday, following US President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, the Dubai premium, the Middle East crude oil benchmark, fell sharply, hitting its lowest level in a month. ⑵ The Oman and Murban premiums also fell to about half of the previous trading day's level, and global crude oil benchmark Brent futures fell below $100 per barrel on Wednesday. ⑶ In spot trading, the cash Dubai premium to swaps fell $14.59 to $14.39 per barrel, with prices among multiple dealers ranging from $99 to $101.20 per barrel. ⑷ According to a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Iran stated that if attacks against it cease, Iran will cease its attacks, and with coordination with the Iranian armed forces, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible within two weeks. (5) From a psychological perspective, the market had already priced in the risks of prolonged conflict and high oil prices. The ceasefire announcement triggered large-scale liquidation, causing the premium structure to collapse rapidly, reflecting a concentrated exodus of speculative long positions. (6) The focus going forward will be on the actual volume of passage and the degree of recovery in oil flow during the two-week ceasefire period. If passage through the Strait remains subject to Iran's licensing mechanism, the current decline in the premium may be an overreaction, and there is room for a readjustment.

17:53:04

[Ukraine's March Fuel Imports Hit Record High as Prime Minister Pressures Prices to Cut Domestic Demand Amidst Spring Planting Peak] ⑴ Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said on Wednesday that despite market turmoil caused by the war with Iran, Ukraine's fuel imports hit a record high in March and will maintain the import pace of April, while urging traders to lower prices. ⑵ Due to the Russian attack that destroyed domestic refining capacity, Ukraine is now almost entirely reliant on imports to meet its diesel and gasoline needs. ⑶ Diesel prices nearly doubled after the outbreak of the Gulf conflict, causing concern among farmers as they begin the crucial spring planting season. ⑷ Sviridenko stated that quotes on major exchanges are declining, which should have a direct impact on fuel prices in Ukraine. The state-owned company Ukrnafta has already begun lowering prices, and further reductions are expected if global trends continue. ⑸ She pointed out that the Ukrainian market should respond fairly to changes in the pricing environment. Ukrainian diesel demand traditionally peaks during the spring planting season, the late summer harvest, and the early autumn planting of winter wheat. (6) From a psychological perspective, importers' record-breaking purchases despite high prices reflect their priority on ensuring sufficient supply for spring planting rather than waiting for prices to fall. However, the Prime Minister's public pressure suggests that domestic political tolerance for high oil prices is decreasing. (7) Future focus will be on whether the downward trend in global diesel prices can continue to be transmitted to the Ukrainian end-market, and whether the pace of imports will be adjusted according to changes in price expectations.

17:50:50

[European Electrical Engineering Stocks Rebound Strongly; Ceasefire Reduces Risk Premium, High Beta Amplifies Gains] ⑴ Following the two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran, shares of European engineering and electrical equipment companies rose. Morningstar analyst Matthew Donan stated that the agreement will benefit demand for electrical and industrial automation equipment. ⑵ Specifically, Legrand and Schneider Electric rose by approximately 8%, while Siemens and ABB saw gains between 6.8% and 9.4%. ⑶ Donan added that ABB, Legrand, Schneider Electric, and Siemens sell products used in large-scale construction or industrial projects, which are often linked to consumer confidence. ⑷ James Moore, an analyst at Rothschild Redburn, pointed out that Siemens and ABB both have high beta characteristics, meaning that their volatility is greater than the overall market as risk sentiment shifts. ⑸ Moore also stated that the ceasefire agreement reduces risk pricing and the likelihood of worst-case scenarios, such as prolonged conflict pushing up oil prices and increasing the risk of a global recession. (6) From a trading psychology perspective, the market interprets this ceasefire as a fading of extreme tail risks, with funds rapidly flowing into previously pressured high-beta industrial sectors. However, investors should remain wary of the time-sensitive nature of the agreement, which is only valid for two weeks. (7) The focus going forward is on whether the ceasefire can be extended or transformed into a more sustainable arrangement; otherwise, the current reassuring rebound may face the risk of repricing.

17:45:58

[Iranian Navy Imposes Stern Restrictions: Passage Through the Strait of Hormuz Requires Permission, Ceasefire Pledge Faces Test of On-the-Spot Control] ⑴ The Iranian Navy informed ships anchored near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning that passage through the strait still requires Iranian permission. ⑵ A recording shared by a crew member shows the Iranian side broadcasting over the radio: "You must obtain permission from the Iranian Sepah Navy to pass through the strait. Any vessel attempting to pass without permission will be destroyed." ⑶ Sepah is a special operations unit belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Although US President Trump has stated that he has agreed to a two-week suspension of attacks on Iran, on the condition that the strait is fully, immediately, and safely reopened, the Iranian government has made it clear that it intends to continue exercising control over the waterway. ⑷ Photos and videos provided by crew members show that warplanes are still circling over the Persian Gulf, and most ships have not moved. ⑸ From a trading psychology perspective, the rift between the political ceasefire signal and on-the-spot military control is eroding the previously established reassurance in the market. Shipping companies and energy traders will be more inclined to adjust their positions and voyages based on real-time traffic conditions rather than diplomatic statements. (6) The focus going forward is on the specific implementation of the Iranian licensing mechanism and whether all parties can reach a verifiable consensus on the rules of passage within the two-week ceasefire period; otherwise, the deadlock in passage through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to suppress risk appetite.

17:42:52

[Iranian Navy Sets Up Barricades in Strait of Hormuz; Passage Still Requires Permission Despite Ceasefire; Ships Warned "Destroyed Without Approval"] ⑴ The Iranian Navy informed ships anchored near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning that passage through the strait still requires Iranian permission. ⑵ A recording shared by a crew member shows that all ships must obtain permission from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy to pass through the strait; any ship attempting to pass without permission will be destroyed. This information was broadcast to ships via radio. ⑶ Although President Trump stated that he had agreed to a two-week suspension of strikes against Iran, provided the strait could be fully, immediately, and safely reopened, the Iranian government has signaled its intention to continue exerting influence over the waterway. ⑷ According to photos and videos shared by crew members, fighter jets are still circling over the Persian Gulf, and most ships remain anchored. ⑸ From a psychological perspective, the market's previous relief from the ceasefire was quickly eroded by reality. The discrepancy between Iran's actual control and its political statements has forced shipping companies and energy traders to remain highly vigilant and hesitant to resume normal passage. (6) The key concern going forward is whether the parties can reach a verifiable operational arrangement for the licensing mechanism; otherwise, the deadlock over passage through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to disrupt the global energy supply chain.

17:42:45

[Japanese Refiners Rush to Ship US Oil, Diverting to Panama Canal; Time-Saving Over Volume] ⑴ Due to supply disruptions caused by the Iran-Iraq War, some Japanese refiners are seeking to expedite US crude oil deliveries by using smaller tankers that can pass through the Panama Canal instead of circumnavigating Africa. ⑵ Ship tracking data shows that three medium-sized tankers are scheduled to transport US oil to Japan from late April to May. Two have already passed through the Panama Canal into the Pacific Ocean, and the third is approaching the canal from the Caribbean. ⑶ US oil is typically transported to Japan via Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil. However, these tankers are too large to pass through the Panama Canal and must circumnavigate the southern tip of Africa, a journey that takes approximately 50 days. ⑷ The use of smaller tankers demonstrates the urgency some Japanese refiners are facing in securing supplies. While transit through the Panama Canal takes about 30 days, it only carries a fraction of the capacity of a VLCC. (5) From a psychological perspective, the market is shifting from "cost priority" to "time priority." Geopolitical supply risks are forcing refiners to accept higher unit transportation costs in exchange for faster delivery guarantees. (6) Currently, at least four very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are en route from the United States to Japan via Africa. The focus going forward is on whether this "dual-pathway" model can be sustained and whether the Panama Canal's capacity will become a new bottleneck.

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