Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-07-16 Thursday

2026-07-19

18:38:11

[Hormuz Conflict Claims Seafarer Lives; India's Emergency Ban Cuts Off Global Shipping Manpower] ⑴ Late Wednesday night, India ordered shipowners, ship management companies, and recruitment agencies to refrain from deploying Indian seafarers to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. ⑵ India is the world's third-largest supplier of seafarers, with over 300,000 sailors serving in global fleets. This ban directly impacts the international shipping manpower market, as the risk of conflict in the Middle East is spilling over from physical assets to human capital. ⑶ Two Indian seafarers have been killed in attacks in the region in the past three days, and several others have died earlier. Shipping regulators say recent attacks have significantly increased the risks faced by seafarers and merchant ships. ⑷ Given the continued deterioration of the security situation in the Persian Gulf, authorities believe it is necessary to strengthen preventative measures to protect the interests of Indian seafarers, while requiring captains to remain fully vigilant about navigational safety and continuously monitor navigational warnings. ⑸ New Delhi has summoned the Iranian deputy ambassador to lodge a strong protest over one of the deaths. The parallel diplomatic pressure and administrative ban indicate that the situation has escalated to a bilateral level. (6) The Indian Seamen's Union stated that over 15,000 Indian seamen remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, questioning the government's plans to rescue these sailors trapped in deadly waters and whose lives are threatened. (7) The dual predicament of being unable to rotate new crew members and evacuate existing ones is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the global shipping industry will face the risk of a labor supply disruption, and freight rates and supply chain disruptions may escalate further.

18:34:11

[Rhine River Levels Rebound from Low Point, German Shipping Costs Double in Two Weeks] ⑴ Rainfall in southwestern Germany has pushed the Rhine River level up slightly from its low point, and inland shipping agencies expect it to continue rising in the coming days, providing some relief to the freight industry, which has been plagued by shallow waters. ⑵ The previous heat wave and lack of rainfall led to severely low water levels, allowing cargo ships to only partially load and requiring cargo to be distributed across multiple vessels, resulting in additional logistics costs for German industries in the early stages of recovery. ⑶ The navigable depth in the Kaub section was about 45 centimeters on Thursday, and agencies predict it will rise to 68 centimeters on Saturday, allowing ships to carry greater loads, but the actual depth will still be below normal levels. ⑷ Tanker-barge freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe have surged to about €115 per ton, nearly double the €65 at the beginning of the week, and a more significant increase from €45 at the end of June. (5) The Rhine River is a vital transportation artery for commodities such as grains, minerals, coal, and refined petroleum products. The summer drought and heatwave of 2022 led to abnormally low water levels, causing supply chain bottlenecks and industrial production problems. (6) While the current improved water levels have provided some relief, commodity traders point out that the fundamental problems are far from being resolved. Transportation costs are still rising, and if subsequent rainfall falls short of expectations, Germany's industrial recovery process may be further disrupted.

18:32:12

[Black Sea Attacks Ignite Wheat Prices, Ukraine's Grain Export Routes Nearly Paralyzed] ⑴ Ukraine and Russia exchanged missile and drone attacks in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov on Thursday. Ukraine claimed to have hit six Russian oil tankers and two tugboats, while Russia claimed to have struck Ukrainian vessels and several military industrial targets. ⑵ The Sea of Azov, a route for about a quarter of Russia's grain exports (the world's largest grain exporter), is currently experiencing restricted navigation in both directions, and this shipping restriction continues. ⑶ Two of Ukraine's three Black Sea ports are operating normally, but the port of Chernomorsk has significantly reduced its grain receiving volume, sending only about 900,000 tons of grain to the port since July, a significant decrease compared to the previous period. ⑷ Russia has also intensified its attacks on deep-water ports in the Odessa region. About one-third of Ukraine's Black Sea grain export capacity has been lost due to the attacks, prompting a stern warning from the farmers' union. ⑸ European wheat prices surged 7% on Wednesday. September milling wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange closed at €231.75 per tonne, a new high since February 2025, while Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 5% during the session. (6) Ukraine has called for the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and its Foreign Minister has publicly stated that the region is a major route for Ukraine's exports and is crucial for its economic survival during wartime. (7) If the situation in the Black Sea continues to deteriorate, global wheat trade flows will be forced to restructure, with the EU potentially absorbing some of the diverted demand. The geopolitical risk premium on grain prices is unlikely to subside in the short term.

18:30:12

[French Soft Wheat Exports and Stockpiling Decline, Pressure on EU Grain Prices] ⑴ The French National Agency for Agriculture (CNA) released its first outlook for the 2026/27 crop year, projecting soft wheat exports to non-EU countries to reach 7 million tons, a 5% decrease from 2025/26, while shipments within the EU are expected to reach 7.4 million tons, a 6% year-on-year decrease. ⑵ While exports and stocks decline, the estimated ending stocks for soft wheat in 2026/27 are 3.65 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous year, while barley ending stocks jumped significantly by 38% to 1.91 million tons, indicating a significant accumulation of supply pressure. ⑶ The agency also revised its 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast to non-EU countries down to 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the June estimate, but slightly increased exports within the EU to 7.9 million tons, reflecting relatively strong demand in the region. ⑷ The estimated ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered from 3.5 million tons to 3.38 million tons, mainly due to adjustments in the previous year's supply and demand structure. (5) Regarding corn, the severe heatwave has led to a decline in expected production, and the 2025/26 ending stocks estimate has been revised down from 2.5 million tons to 2.39 million tons, indicating that the risk of reduced corn production in France is gradually materializing. (6) Overall, the new season sees a simultaneous contraction in soft wheat exports and a rebound in stocks. The EU's internal market absorption capacity is limited, and French grain prices may face continued downward pressure. Meanwhile, the weather premium for corn still has room to further develop.

18:26:13

[Monthly Aluminum Market Surplus Cannot Mask Annual Shortfall; WBMS Data Reveals Subtle Shift in Supply and Demand Balance] ⑴ Data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics shows that in May 2026, global primary aluminum production reached 6.07 million tons, while consumption was 5.9984 million tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 71,600 tons, ending the previous months' shortage. ⑵ However, cumulative data from January to May still shows a shortage, with total production at 29.9056 million tons and consumption at 30.0253 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 119,800 tons, indicating that the overall tight balance since the beginning of the year has not fundamentally changed. ⑶ During the same period, global alumina production reached a cumulative total of 61.8714 million tons, with May's production reaching 12.5419 million tons. As a key intermediate in primary aluminum production, its output directly constrains subsequent smelting supply. (4) Bauxite production totaled 206 million tons from January to May, with 37.1085 million tons produced in May alone. Raw material supply is relatively abundant and has not yet posed a significant bottleneck to alumina and primary aluminum production. (5) Regarding recycled aluminum, cumulative production reached 10.7837 million tons in the first five months, with 2.1671 million tons produced in May alone. The scrap aluminum recycling and reuse sector maintained stable output, continuing its substitution effect on primary aluminum. (6) The combination of monthly surplus and cumulative shortage suggests a temporary weakening in demand in May. However, the overall supply and demand pattern for the year remains uncertain. The interplay between the pace of consumption recovery and the speed of smelting capacity release will be the core variable determining the direction of aluminum prices.

18:20:14

[German Bonds Become an Interest Rate Basin, Global Yield Spread Inversion Reflects Extreme Policy Divergence] ⑴ The yield on German 2-year government bonds was 2.766%, 174 basis points lower than Australian bonds, 158 basis points lower than UK bonds, and 140 basis points lower than US bonds. Short-term yields in Australia, the UK, and the US were all significantly higher than the Eurozone benchmark. ⑵ Interest rate spreads within the Eurozone narrowed drastically. French and Italian 2-year yields were 17.3 and 17.8 basis points higher than German yields, respectively. The spreads between Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany were only 1.5 and -2.1 basis points, respectively, indicating a high degree of synchronization in the ECB's policy transmission. ⑶ Japanese 2-year yields were 132.7 basis points lower than German yields, 38.2 basis points lower than Swedish yields, and 24.2 basis points lower than Danish yields. The easing policies of the Nordic countries and Japan formed a partial contrast with the Eurozone. (4) Over the 10-year horizon, the German bond yield was 3.170%, with the UK leading the pack with a positive spread of 179.8 basis points. Australia and the US were 173.3 and 140.7 basis points higher, respectively, while Canada and Spain had positive spreads of approximately 36 to 43 basis points. (5) The Eurozone's 10-year yield spread widened significantly compared to the 2-year spread. France and Italy were 77.3 and 76.8 basis points higher than Germany, respectively, while Belgium and Spain were approximately 43 to 52 basis points higher, reflecting a more pronounced divergence in market expectations regarding national fiscal and growth prospects in long-term pricing. (6) Japan's 10-year yield remained 45.5 basis points lower than Germany's, but the gap narrowed considerably to 132.7 basis points from the short end, indicating that market expectations of the Bank of Japan gradually exiting its ultra-loose policy continued to suppress long-term yield spreads. (7) As the benchmark for interest rate pricing in the Eurozone, Germany's interest rate differentials with those of other countries reveal that the misalignment of global monetary cycles is deepening. The differential changes in the long- and short-term interest rate spread structures provide a key observation window for cross-border arbitrage and exchange rate forecasting.

18:20:13

[US Treasury Yields Stand Out, Global Yield Spreads Reveal Capital Migration] ⑴ The US 2-year Treasury yield is 4.166%, more than 100 basis points higher than the average of major developed countries. Only Australia leads slightly with a positive spread of 34 basis points, followed closely by the UK at 17.9 basis points. ⑵ The yield spread between the 2-year Treasury yields of Eurozone countries and the US is generally between 120 and 180 basis points, with Denmark at -164 basis points, Sweden at -178 basis points, and Germany at -140 basis points. ⑶ Japan's 2-year yield is only 1.439%, with a spread of -272.7 basis points compared to the US, the largest gap among all comparable countries, reflecting the continued impact of its ultra-loose monetary policy stance. (4) Regarding 10-year maturities, the US yield was 4.577%, while Australia maintained its leading position with a positive spread of 32.6 basis points, and the UK's positive spread widened to 39.2 basis points, indicating that the interest rate paths of Anglo-Saxon economies are becoming more synchronized. (5) The Eurozone's 10-year yield spread narrowed significantly compared to the 2-year spread, with France and Italy both at approximately -63 basis points, and Germany at -140 basis points, indicating that the pricing of future interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in the long term is relatively restrained. (6) The Japanese 10-year yield rose to 2.715%, still 186 basis points inverted with the US yield, but significantly narrowed compared to the 273 basis points at the short end, highlighting that expectations of monetary policy normalization are gradually taking hold in long-term interest rates. (7) The current interest rate differential structure means that dollar assets continue to be more attractive to international capital, but historical experience shows that extreme interest rate differentials are often accompanied by increased exchange rate volatility, and the pressure of global asset allocation rebalancing cannot be ignored.

18:16:11

[New Zealand Dollar Bulls Break Through Against the Trend, Rate Hike Bets and Geopolitical Premiums Dance Together] ⑴ The New Zealand dollar strengthened against major currencies in early European trading on Thursday, as the market bet on at least one more rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year. Last week, the central bank raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points and hinted at further tightening. ⑵ Investors currently expect two more rate hikes this year, a policy tone that provides core support for the New Zealand dollar, in stark contrast to the cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike. ⑶ Recent slowing US inflation data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate hike in the near term, but geopolitical risks in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices, raising concerns that interest rates may remain high for an extended period. ⑷ The US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, with US airstrikes resulting in casualties. Iran has stated it has complete freedom of action, and media reports suggest the US may expand its military operations. (5) The New Zealand dollar rose to a 1.5-month high of 94.98 against the Japanese yen and a 3.5-month high of 1.1948 against the Australian dollar, recovering from the morning lows of 94.59 and 1.1988 respectively. Technically, if the upward trend continues, the target is 96.00 against the yen and 1.18 against the Australian dollar. (6) The New Zealand dollar rose slightly to 0.5858 against the US dollar and 1.9577 against the euro, recovering from the morning lows of 0.5834 and 1.9647 respectively. The next resistance levels are at 0.60 and 1.94 respectively. (7) Tonight's focus will be on US retail sales, weekly jobless claims, the New York Fed Services Activity Index, the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index, business inventories, the NAHB Housing Market Index, and pending home sales data, which may provide short-term guidance for the foreign exchange market.

18:06:11

[South Korean Stocks Plunge Again, Japanese Stocks Fall Significantly] The South Korean KOSPI index fell sharply by 6.37% on the 16th, once again falling below the 7000-point mark, closing at 6820.60 points. Both major stock indices in Tokyo, Japan, also fell significantly that day. Affected by factors such as the escalating situation in the Middle East raising concerns about regional energy supplies and renewed valuation worries about artificial intelligence concept stocks, the South Korean stock market opened sharply lower and continued to decline, with the KOSPI falling by more than 7% at one point during the day. Earlier that day, due to sharp fluctuations in the KOSPI 200 index futures, the Korea Exchange initiated its 37th "temporary suspension" this year, halting algorithmic selling operations for 5 minutes. Influenced by the overnight plunge in SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts in New York, South Korean technology stocks experienced a concentrated sell-off on the 16th, with Samsung Electronics closing down 8.77% and SK Hynix closing down 11.53%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Korea (the central bank) signaled the official start of an interest rate hike cycle, further exacerbating market selling sentiment. The Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee decided on the same day to raise the benchmark interest rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, an increase of 25 basis points. In response to continued sharp market fluctuations, South Korean financial regulators announced regulatory measures for single-stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to the plan, the basic margin required to invest in such products will increase from 10 million won to 30 million won (approximately 1,479 won to 1 US dollar), and must be paid entirely in cash. In addition, the minimum trading unit for these products has also been increased. The two major stock indices in Tokyo, Japan, also fell significantly on the 16th, with the Nikkei 225 index closing down 2.79% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index down 1.45%. (Xinhua)

17:12:12

Eurozone May seasonally adjusted trade balance (billion euros)

Previous : 13 Forecast : -

Published Value -50

Previous

17:02:17

Italy's trade balance with the EU in June (in billions of euros)

Previous : 3.16 Forecast : -

Published Value 8.45

Previous

17:02:13

Eurozone May unadjusted trade balance (billion euros)

Previous : -10 Forecast : -16

Published Value -78

Previous

16:08:13

Italy's June CPI reading excluding tobacco

Previous : 102.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 102.80

Previous

16:08:12

Italy's final June CPI annual rate excluding tobacco

Previous : 3% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.90%

Previous

16:04:12

Singapore's total fuel inventory (in thousands of barrels) for the week ending July 15

Previous : 4033.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 4025.10

Previous

16:02:21

Italy's final June CPI annual rate

Previous : 3% Forecast : 3%

Published Value 3%

Previous
First
Previous
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
...
50
Next

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4016.36

40.10

(1.01%)

XAG

 55.884

0.395

(0.71%)

CONC

 81.77

3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

 88.08

3.22

(3.80%)

USD

 100.759

0.039

(0.04%)

EURUSD

 1.1438

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

 1.3455

-0.0022

(-0.17%)

USDCNH

 6.7769

0.0044

(0.06%)
Risk Disclosure
Trading stocks, currencies, commodities, futures, bonds, funds or cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. These risks include the loss of part or all of your investment capital, so trading is not suitable for all investors. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, use your own judgment, and consult a qualified advisor. The content on this website is not specifically directed at you, nor have we considered your financial situation or needs. Information provided on this site may not be real-time or accurate. Prices shown on this website may be provided by market makers rather than exchanges. You are solely responsible for any trades or financial decisions made based on the information from this site, and you must not rely on such information. We make no guarantees regarding any information on the website and assume no responsibility for any trading losses caused by the use of this information. Use, storage, copying, display, modification, dissemination or distribution of the data contained on this site is prohibited without prior written permission. All intellectual property rights in the data provided on this site are reserved by the respective data providers and exchanges.

TURBOFIN TECHNOLOGIES PTY LTD Copyright © 2025 FXBus Ltd