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2025-10-31 Friday

2025-11-04

23:00:03

Canada's budget balance for August so far this year

Previous : -77.90 Forecast : -

Published Value -110.70

Previous

23:00:02

Canada's budget balance for August alone

Previous : -15.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -32.80

Previous

22:46:33

[Global Central Banks Bought 220 Tons of Gold in Q3, Spending $41 Billion on Jewelry] On March 30th, local time, the World Gold Council released its "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" for Q3 2025. Global gold demand reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% year-on-year increase; the value of gold demand surged 44% year-on-year to $146 billion, both record highs for a single quarter. By the end of Q3, total gold demand had increased by 1% to 3,717 tons, valued at $384 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase. Investment demand dominated. Global gold investment demand surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of net gold demand in the quarter. Gold ETFs performed particularly well, with global holdings increasing by 222 tons; physical gold investment was also robust, with demand for gold bars and coins exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter. International gold prices repeatedly hit new highs. Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.1% from $3,307.7 per ounce at the end of June to $3,873.2 per ounce at the end of the third quarter. The price surged even more sharply in October, breaking through $4,000. On October 20th, gold futures prices briefly touched a record high of $4,392 per ounce, highlighting the current market's enthusiasm for gold investment. The high gold prices have not deterred central banks' gold purchases. In the third quarter, global central banks' net gold purchases totaled 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% year-on-year increase. [Microphone] Industry insiders stated that escalating geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflationary pressures, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies have all contributed to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. A weakening dollar, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and the existence of stagflation risks will further support future investment demand for gold. (CCTV Finance)

22:01:08

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Observing the 30-minute candlestick chart, spot gold is generally exhibiting a range-bound trading pattern. The price structure shows that after the previous upward wave from a low of $3915.35 to a high of $4046.13, gold prices have recently entered a period of consolidation at higher levels. The price faces resistance at $4035.70, $4046.13, and $4060. On the downside, the psychological level of $4000.00 forms the first line of defense, with further support levels at $3988.91 and $3960.00, and the strongest support at the previous low of $3915.35. Looking at the MACD indicator, the current DIFF value is 2.24, the DEA value is 1.36, and the MACD histogram value is 1.76. Although both the fast and slow lines remain above the zero axis, indicating that the medium-term trend is still bullish, the small and converging MACD histogram values reflect a weakening of bullish momentum. From a candlestick chart analysis, the left side of the chart shows a relatively smooth upward trend, with the price steadily climbing from $3915.35 to $4046.13. During this period, it repeatedly tested support levels before continuing its upward movement, indicating a bullish dominance. However, the price encountered resistance after reaching the high of $4046.13 and subsequently fell back, entering a period of consolidation, reaching a low of $3988.91. Gold prices then rebounded again and are currently consolidating around $4020. This pattern of repeatedly testing resistance levels but failing to break through effectively reveals a weakening of bullish momentum. If gold prices cannot break through $4046.13 with significant volume in the short term, there is a possibility of a downward retest of the $4000 support level. Overall, the technical indicators on the 30-minute chart show a mixed picture of bullish and bearish forces. While the MACD is above the zero line, its momentum is weakening, and the RSI is neutral to slightly bullish but with limited upside potential. In terms of price structure, gold prices are trapped in a consolidation range between $4000 and $4046.13, and the short-term breakout direction remains unclear.

21:57:56

[Argentina Trapped in $16 Billion Legal Dilemma, Sovereign Debt Rules Face Reshaping] ⑴ While Argentine President Milley won the domestic midterm elections, he faces a $16 billion legal ruling overseas that could overturn his economic reforms. ⑵ US Judge Presca ruled that Argentina violated the bylaws when nationalizing YPF oil company in 2012, ordering it to compensate minority shareholders. ⑶ The judgment amount surged from the initial $5 billion to $16 billion because the judge used the 2012 exchange rate plus 8% annual interest, instead of the 0.76% statutory interest rate claimed by Argentina. ⑷ Lawyers representing Argentina warned that the ruling poses an "existential threat" to the country, whose net international foreign exchange reserves were negative $5 billion in June. ⑸ The Milley government is dealing with over $100 billion in maturing debt and curbing hyperinflation, while also facing $40 billion in temporary aid from Trump. ⑹ The judge's unconventional interpretation of Argentine law, rather than following legal principles to direct the litigation to an Argentine court, has sent shockwaves through the financial world. (7) Bank of America, concerned about potential involvement in similar international legal disputes, has expressed its concerns to the court. This precedent could prompt sovereign borrowers to seek jurisdictions outside of New York. (8) Two judges on the appeals court questioned the choice of venue, arguing that the case should have been heard in Argentina. Burford's stock price plummeted during the proceedings. (9) If the ruling is upheld, it will not only severely damage the Argentine economy but could also reshape the sovereign debt dispute resolution mechanism and impact global capital market rules. (10) This case highlights the profound contradiction between international investment protection and sovereign state policy space. The outcome will have a far-reaching impact on financing costs in emerging markets.

21:57:01

[US Natural Gas Prices Surge to Six-Month High, LNG Export Demand Hits Record High] ⑴ US natural gas futures rose 4% to a six-month high on Friday, with the December contract settling at $4.116 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). ⑵ Prices remained in technically overbought territory for the second consecutive day, the first time in four weeks, with a weekly gain of 25%, the largest weekly increase since April 2024. ⑶ The monthly gain of 25% also marks the largest monthly increase since March, significantly outperforming the crude oil market. ⑷ The crude oil-to-natural gas price ratio fell to 15:1, the lowest since December 2022, well below the reasonable level of 6:1 based on energy equivalents. ⑸ Average flow rates at liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities reached a record high of 16.6 billion cubic feet per day in October, with Friday's daily flow rising to 17.9 billion cubic feet per day. ⑹ Natural gas production in the 48 contiguous US states fell to 107 billion cubic feet per day, a decline from the record high of 108 billion cubic feet per day set in August. (7) Despite inventory levels being approximately 4% higher than normal, strong export demand continues to consume excess supply. (8) Weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will generally be above normal until November 15th, and heating demand is expected to be below seasonal norm. (9) Analysts predict that natural gas demand will remain in the range of 108.9-109.8 billion cubic feet per day over the next two weeks, higher than previously expected. (10) The current Henry Hub spot price is $4.08, a significant increase from $2.58 in the same period last year, indicating a fundamental shift in the market's supply and demand dynamics.

21:45:02

The Chicago PMI for October in the United States

Previous : 40.60 Forecast : 42.30

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 43.80

Previous

21:15:44

[Yen Gains Temporary Breath, Pound Plunge] ⑴ The yen strengthened slightly on Friday after Japan's new Finance Minister, Hodaka Katayama, stated he was closely monitoring currency market movements with a high degree of urgency. ⑵ The dollar held steady against the yen at 154.125, remaining above its near nine-month low, as Tokyo's core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. ⑶ The yen fell 4% in October, its worst monthly performance since July, and its exchange rate against the euro fell to a record low. ⑷ The dollar index hit a three-month high, driven by central bank decisions and tech earnings reports, with risk aversion supporting a stronger dollar. ⑸ Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remained cautious about a December rate cut, with market expectations dropping from over 90% a week ago to around 75%. ⑹ The euro was flat against the dollar at 1.1562, after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive month, and fell 1.4% cumulatively this month. (7) The pound fell 0.2% to 1.312, bringing its monthly decline to 2.3%, as political pressure surrounding Chancellor Rachel Reeves continued to mount. (8) The euro rose 0.15% against the pound to 0.8812, a more than two-year high, and is on track for its fifth consecutive monthly gain. (9) Market concerns about the impact of the UK budget on the economy led investors to flock to UK government bonds as a safe haven, causing bond yields to fall. (10) Analysts pointed out that the UK government faces difficult choices, and continued fiscal uncertainty continues to weigh on the pound's performance.

21:14:50

[A Shift in the Indian Auto Market Landscape: Small Cars to Surpass SUVs as Growth Engine] ⑴ Maruti Suzuki, India's largest automaker, predicts that sales growth of small cars will surpass that of SUVs, stimulated by tax incentives. ⑵ Chairman Bhagava stated that retail growth for small cars, subject to an 18% tax rate, will outpace that of larger vehicles subject to a 40% tax rate. ⑶ India simplified its Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure on September 22, reducing the tax rate for small cars from 28% to 18% while increasing the tax rate for large vehicles to 40%. ⑷ Approximately 70% of Maruti Suzuki's production falls under the lower tax rate, and the company will directly benefit from this policy adjustment. ⑸ Second-quarter net profit increased by 7.3% to 32.9 billion rupees, lower than the market expectation of 35.93 billion rupees, underperforming expectations. ⑹ Operating profit margin contracted to 8.5% from 10.3% in the same period last year, mainly dragged down by rising commodity and marketing costs. (7) Domestic sales remained weak, with domestic sales declining by 4.8% in the first half of the fiscal year starting in April, including a sharp drop of 11.5% in the September quarter. (8) Exports became a bright spot, surging 42.2% to 110,487 units in the first half of the year, and total exports are expected to exceed 400,000 units for the fiscal year. (9) The company's stock price fell 1.6% on Friday, but driven by tax cuts, its year-to-date gain is still 49%, having reached a record high in August. (10) Facing competition from Hyundai and Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki is continuously expanding its SUV product line to maintain its market position.

20:47:10

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Agricultural Product Markets] ⑴ The ample supply of palm oil continues, with Indonesia's palm oil production projected to increase by 10% in 2025. ⑵ Coupled with the weakening of crude oil prices, palm oil futures maintained a narrow range of fluctuation between 8760-8840 yuan. ⑶ The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell by 70 yuan to 8620 yuan/ton, with futures trading at a slight premium to spot. ⑷ In the short term, short positions can be initiated at the upper limit of the range, as the declining volume indicates a continued downward trend. ⑸ The trading data shows that some long positions are concentrated on bottom-fishing; short positions near 8850 yuan should be monitored for a profit-taking range of 8500-8600 yuan. ⑹ Improved expectations for US soybean exports have pushed US soybean prices back to previous highs. ⑺ Rising import costs have driven up domestic soybean meal futures prices, with ample soybean supply expected in the fourth quarter. ⑻ However, a supply gap may emerge in the first quarter of next year, and inventory pressure will gradually ease from November onwards. (9) Given rising costs and easing supply pressure, a small long position in soybean meal can be considered. (10) Corn futures have risen sharply, with China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) purchasing 250,000 tons in the past two days to alleviate supply pressure. (11) However, seasonal selling pressure remains, and downstream feed mills and deep-processing enterprises are reluctant to purchase grain. (12) Maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy is recommended, but demand is weak, and the short-term supply easing situation remains unchanged. (13) Short selling is still recommended, as the increase in hog supply is the main long-term contradiction. (14) Theoretical slaughter volume will increase significantly in October, and the supply easing situation may deepen further. (15) The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the decline in spot prices has squeezed the price bubble. (16) Short selling can be considered at opportune times, as the number of newly laying hens in the egg market is not high. (17) Farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high; attention should be paid to the progress of the production inflection point. (18) In the short term, a wait-and-see approach is recommended.

20:46:25

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Energy and Chemical Sector] ⑴ The Trump administration recently canceled the summit in Budapest and imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, while the EU formally passed its 19th round of sanctions against Russia. ⑵ This may lead to countries like India reducing their purchases of Russian oil. ⑶ The macro environment is bullish, but considering that OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase at its meeting this Sunday, sentiment has shifted towards neutral to bullish. ⑷ The US and EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia, with the US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies triggering a strong reaction. ⑸ Expectations of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil remain, and prices have rebounded following crude oil. ⑹ OPEC+ may implement a slight production increase at its meeting this Sunday, but with positive macroeconomic expectations, the downside for fuel oil may be limited. ⑺ Market sentiment in Shahe has improved recently, with inventories declining and some downstream companies restocking. ⑻ Some manufacturers are selling well, and market transactions are acceptable; glass supply is gradually turning positive year-on-year. ⑼ However, demand is still declining significantly year-on-year, facing considerable pressure, but short-term gains are influenced by easing trade tensions and stronger commodity sentiment. (10) The market showed resilience, and the downside potential for glass futures may be limited. (11) A slightly bullish outlook is recommended, as the domestic soda ash market remained stable with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. (12) Total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.702 million tons this week, an increase of 9,600 tons from Monday. (13) The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 87.44%, but production from the Alashan Phase II plant may be delayed. (14) Short-term coal costs have constrained the decline, and a slightly bullish outlook is recommended. (15) Prices of liquid soda ash and liquid chlorine in Shandong rose, with chlor-alkali profits reaching 627 yuan/ton. (16) Supply is expected to increase next week, and downstream purchasing prices are expected to decline further. (17) Supply remains ample, while downstream deliveries have increased slightly. (18) However, there is no peak season restocking demand for non-aluminum products, inventories are high, and there are no signs of improvement in fundamentals. 18. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly weak bias. The spot price in Taicang fell by 33 yuan to 2157 yuan, and the price in the northern Inner Mongolia region fell by 15 yuan to 2005 yuan. 20. The main methanol contract broke down again, significantly dragging down the spot trading atmosphere.

20:45:00

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Market optimism faded, and funds returned to fundamental trading logic. ⑵ Weaker-than-expected earnings reports from US tech stocks triggered a decline, with funds flowing back into gold ETFs, increasing holdings by 4.3 tons. ⑶ New York gold support is at $3940, and resistance is at $4070; domestic gold support is at 900 yuan, and resistance is at 926 yuan. ⑷ The support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 904-910 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 915-926 yuan. ⑸ Trading recommendations: Reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive buy-on-dips strategy. ⑹ The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's remarks were hawkish, stating that a December rate cut is "not a certainty." ⑺ Copper prices fell as a result, but domestic and international copper mine disturbances continued, with supply expected to be tight. ⑻ Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper still has support; maintain a buy-on-dips strategy. (9) Shanghai zinc prices retreated slightly due to hawkish comments, while LME inventory levels remained low. (10) Domestic social inventories decreased slightly but remained high, with export opportunities open and demand stable. (11) Fundamentals are gradually moving towards a tight balance, and Shanghai zinc prices may stabilize and fluctuate. (12) Overall alumina supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not eased. (13) The rebound is weak given high inventory levels; caution is advised when bottom-fishing. (14) Risks of mining disruptions should be guarded against before the Guinea elections. (15) Aluminum prices were suppressed by hawkish comments, but the overall macroeconomic environment is favorable. (16) Tight scrap aluminum supply and firm prices suggest continued high-level fluctuations in Shanghai aluminum. (17) The strategy is mainly to buy on dips, while lithium carbonate futures remain relatively strong. (18) Strong downstream demand supports prices, and the destocking trend continues. (19) However, the rise is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch, and the high supply pressure remains unchanged. (20) Excessive optimism about the upside potential of the market is not advisable; attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends.

20:43:38

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Ferrous Metals Sector] ⑴ Pig iron production declined due to environmental regulations, but the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan may boost output. ⑵ Cost support remains in the short term, but the room for improvement in construction material demand is limited, and the peak demand season may have already arrived. ⑶ Overall, the supply and demand drivers for steel are weak, suppressing the upside potential of the market; short-term fluctuations are expected. ⑷ In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar 01 contract decreased, with roughly equal magnitude. ⑸ Both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil 01 contract increased, with short positions increasing slightly more, resulting in a slightly bearish change in open interest. ⑹ Iron ore port inventories continued to rise, indicating a weakening of supply and demand, but pig iron production disruptions persist. ⑺ Steel mills maintain a low inventory strategy, and restocking expectations support short-term high-level fluctuations. ⑻ Iron ore shipments are expected to remain high in November, and pig iron production still has room to decline. ⑼ The medium-term weak expectation pattern remains unchanged, and there is a risk of valuation decline; shorting is recommended on opportune occasions. ⑽ Coking coal supply remains tight due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and underground factors. (11) Downstream buyers are actively purchasing, and low coal mine inventories support stronger spot prices. (12) Macroeconomic disturbances have triggered some profit-taking, increasing market volatility, but the adjustment range is limited. (13) Strategically, maintain a buy-on-dips approach, avoiding chasing highs; short positions have been reduced more significantly. (14) Coking coal production is suppressed by environmental maintenance, and rising costs are driving expectations of a third round of price increases. (15) Steel demand is nearing its peak, and rising raw material prices may compress steel mill profits. (16) Coking plant profit improvement has limited room; a long coal, short coking coal strategy can be maintained. (17) Manganese silicon plant inventories continue to increase; supply and demand drivers are weak, but expectations of reduced manganese ore supply are rising. (18) The battle between bulls and bears intensifies; awaiting a breakout from the month-long trading range. (19) Funding has increased long positions more significantly, with a generally positive change in open interest.

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Instrument Current Price Change

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3993.95

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XAG

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