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2025-09-17 Wednesday

2025-09-19

18:09:27

German government spokesman: We are aware of the EU's sanctions plan against Israel, but the government has not yet made a decision on this

18:08:22

Asian Petrochemical Market Trends: (1) Naphtha refining margins in Asia continued to decline, despite a corresponding increase in crude oil benchmark prices, but the decline was limited by tight supply. The naphtha crack spread was approximately $102 per metric ton, and the spread to Brent crude remained stable at $6.25 per metric ton. (2) In the gasoline market, the gasoline crack spread remained above $13 per barrel due to the remaining tight supply-demand balance. China has issued its third batch of export quotas for gasoline, aviation fuel, and diesel this year, totaling 8.395 million metric tons. (3) Regarding inventories, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights, light distillate inventories at the Fujairah trading hub plummeted to 6.048 million barrels, reaching their lowest level since November 2025. (4) Regarding market dynamics, sources revealed that global commodity traders Vitol and Glencore are expected to formally bid for Chevron's 50% stake in Singapore's second-largest refinery. Japan's top power company JERA is in advanced talks to acquire U.S. natural gas production assets in a deal valued at approximately $1.7 billion, marking another example of Asian countries investing in the U.S. energy sector. Two gasoline transactions were made in Singapore's cash trading market.

18:05:39

Morrisons supermarkets in the UK: Same-store sales increased by 3.0% in the third quarter, up 3.9% in the second quarter, and total sales in the third quarter were 4 billion pounds, up 3.5%. Cost savings of 63 million pounds were achieved in the third quarter, and the target of 1 billion pounds is expected to be reached by the end of fiscal 2026. Total debt was reduced by 261 million pounds in the third quarter.

18:04:44

[Interest Rate Cutting Cycle Begins: Structural Market Opportunities Emerge, and Century-Old Data Reveals Stock Market Momentum] ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December of last year at its monetary policy meeting ending this week, and expects this move to kick off a series of rate cuts, potentially totaling nearly six 25 basis point cuts by the end of next year. Institutional data shows that historically, the start of an easing cycle has, on average, driven stock market gains in the following year. ⑵ According to analysis by Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in the 10 cycles since 1982 in which the Federal Reserve began or resumed rate cuts, the S&P 500 index rose an average of 11% in the following 12 months, with gains occurring in eight of those cycles. However, he also noted that the 2001 and 2007 rate cuts coincided with recessions, resulting in declines of 13.5% and 23.9% in the subsequent 12 months, respectively. (3) Lower interest rates are expected to boost stocks tied to the domestic economic cycle, including banks, homebuilders, materials companies, and small and medium-sized enterprises, creating new leaders in the current bull market, which is dominated by mega-cap tech companies. Research by JPMorgan strategists shows that in cases where the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts after pausing, cyclical sectors tend to outperform defensive sectors within six months after initially lagging behind. (4) Industrial and financial company stocks, high-quality cyclical stocks that have lagged behind in the recent market rebound, are likely to perform well in a lower interest rate environment. Given that the stock market has seen significant gains despite previous monetary policy tightening, with the benchmark S&P 500 index up over 12% this year and approximately 85% since the bull market began in October 2022, it remains to be seen whether rate cuts will further benefit the market.

18:04:23

[Gold Takes the Lead! Morgan Stanley CIO Bullish on the New "Inflation-Proof" Trinity] ⑴ Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson proposed a more resilient 60/20/20 portfolio strategy, including a 20% allocation to gold. With the potential yield of US stocks relative to US Treasuries at historically low levels and investors demanding higher yields from long-term bonds, this strategy is seen as an effective inflation hedge. ⑵ A traditional 60/40 portfolio typically allocates 60% of assets to stocks and 40% to fixed income. The logic is that stocks rise during periods of economic optimism, while bonds rise during periods of turmoil, offsetting each other. However, Wilson prefers a 60% allocation to stocks, with the remaining 20% divided between fixed income and gold. Within the fixed income market, this renowned Wall Street bear prefers short-term US Treasuries with a maturity of five years over ten-year bonds to better capture the yield curve's rolling returns. ⑶ Wilson noted that gold, rather than US Treasuries, has become the "anti-fragile" asset. He believes that high-quality stocks and gold are the best hedges. The advantage of this dual hedge lies in their stark contrast: both hedge against inflation, but stocks are growth-linked, making them risk-on investments, while gold rises as a safe haven during economic downturns when real interest rates fall. (4) US stocks have rebounded from near-bear market lows following Trump's tariff remarks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit several new highs in September, a historically weak month for stocks. Meanwhile, spot gold prices have soared to over $3,700 per ounce, a record high, fueled by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Wilson said the April lows would be excellent buying points for many stocks, and some of the sectors that have suffered the most losses have since rebounded significantly, demonstrating the return of excess returns since Trump's tariff remarks. (5) On the other hand, fund managers have warned that the appeal of long-term bonds is waning due to growing doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence.

18:02:54

[Bank of Canada to Cut Rates Tonight! Unemployment Surge Triggers Easing Cycle] ⑴ The Bank of Canada is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, the first in nine months, with overnight swaps pricing in over 91% probability of a rate cut. ⑵ The rate cut is primarily driven by a weak job market and economic contraction: Canada has lost over 100,000 jobs in the past two months, the unemployment rate has risen to a nine-year high outside of the pandemic, and the economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter. ⑶ Since launching its easing cycle in June of last year, the central bank has cut interest rates by 225 basis points, lowering the rate from 5% to 2.75% in March. Since then, it has held rates steady due to uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑷ August inflation data showed a 1.9% year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI). However, the central bank's more closely watched core CPI median and trimmed mean CPI inflation indicators, at 3.1% and 3%, respectively, remain close to the upper limit of its 1%-3% inflation target range. (5) Desjardins' head of macro strategy noted that core goods inflation (excluding food, energy, and indirect taxes) slowed to a three-month annualized rate of just 0.7% in August, well below the pre-pandemic average, providing support for a rate cut. (6) Most economists expect the central bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in October or December. Governor Macklem will announce the interest rate decision at 02:30 Beijing time on Thursday, immediately following the Federal Reserve's decision.

18:01:08

Trump's Pressure Stirs Up the US Treasury Curve, Fund Managers Warn of Fiscal Concerns. (1) The US Treasury yield curve may steepen on Tuesday due to investor concerns about fiscal and political risks. Bond fund managers say Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve is gradually eroding market confidence in the institution's authority. Long-term Treasury yields are facing the dual pressures of widening deficits and increased bond issuance, making it difficult for them to fall, while short-term yields reflect market expectations of more aggressive Fed rate cuts. (2) Specific data showed that the two-year Treasury yield fell to 3.51% on Tuesday, after previously rising to 3.578%. The 10-year yield was at 4.03%, having recently declined due to weak labor market data, reinforcing expectations of policy easing. Gareth Nicholson, Chief Investment Officer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, predicts that if labor market weakness persists, the front-end yield could fall to the high 2% range, while the back-end yield would remain in the 3% to 4% range, leading to a moderate steepening of the curve in early 2026. The balance between monetary easing and supply dynamics will be the key factor. ⑶ Stephen Parker, co-head of global investment strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank, noted that investors are not yet adequately compensated for hedging against inflation and fiscal concerns, with the long-term U.S. Treasury curve being most sensitive to these risks. Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer, Mike Wilson, believes that policymakers are likely to respond to pressure by suppressing yields, even if this could reignite inflation risks. Consequently, market participants are turning to other assets, such as equities, and that front-end yields are expected to decline in the short term due to short-term Treasury issuance, Treasury repurchase agreements, and Fed rhetoric. ⑷ As the appeal of U.S. Treasuries wanes, bond fund managers are optimistic about private credit filling the yield and diversification gap. Gareth Nicholson, Chief Investment Officer of Nomura International Wealth Management, emphasized that returns in private credit require patience, with opportunities concentrated in secondary markets, infrastructure, renewable energy, and logistics real estate. JPMorgan's Parker added that corporate fundamentals remain solid, and credit spreads are narrow only due to distortions in the U.S. Treasury market. His strategy favors holding income over long durations.

17:59:34

[The 11.54 bottom line suddenly appears to signal a "hard bottom": Are EUR/NOK bears running out of ammunition?] ⑴ Since July 2023, the EUR/NOK weekly chart has quietly carved a slowly rising channel, with the most recent low falling to 11.4010 in June of this year, indicating that bulls have quietly accumulated chips over the past two and a half years. ⑵ April's bearish surprise drove the exchange rate from 12.2220 back to 11.5651, and this week it tested 11.5400. However, after five consecutive weeks of decline, momentum indicators have weakened. Monday's daily closing of the doji candlestick chart and the strong rebound in the RSI have turned short-term sentiment from extremely cold to positive. ⑶ The first technical barrier is the 10-day moving average at 11.6428. If it holds, the 38.2% retracement level at 11.7088 will become the next target. This level corresponds to the middle watershed of the August-September decline. A break above this level will officially confirm the long-term bottom structure. ⑷ Further up, there are three weekly cloud bands "magnets" waiting to be tested: the cloud band turning points on October 3, November 21, and February 13 of next year are concentrated at 11.7420-11.7435. Historical data shows that about 72% of the bands will return to this dense area, attracting prices to move upward. ⑸ At the event level, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decisions on Wednesday and the Norwegian Central Bank on Thursday. If the interest rate differential is expected to tilt in favor of the euro, coupled with technical resonance, the krone may face additional selling pressure in the short term, and the "shallow bottom" on the long-term chart is expected to be upgraded to a medium-term bottom.

17:56:59

The Kremlin stated: "Reaching a consensus on UN reform is nearly impossible at this point, as many countries hold diametrically opposed positions. We support reform of the UN Security Council." (Regarding Europe's attempt to reduce its purchases of Russian energy, they mistakenly believe sanctions will force Russia to change course.) (Regarding Trump's warning of further sanctions against Russia, we are open to a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian conflict.)

17:55:40

Expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising, and market reactions depend on multiple factors. Details>

17:54:44

[South Korean Giant Secretly Purchases 65,000 Tons of Corn! Global Grain Trade Undercurrents] (1) South Korea's largest feed company, Nonghyup Feed (NOFI), secretly purchased approximately 65,000 tons of animal feed corn through a private transaction late last week. The cargo is expected to originate from the United States or South America and was not purchased through an international tender process. (2) Transaction details indicate that approximately 45,000 tons of corn were sold at an outright price, with an estimated cost and freight (C&F) price of $231.75 per ton; the remainder was priced at a premium of 170.50 cents per bushel (C&F) to the Chicago Board of Trade's December corn futures contract. (3) All transactions included an additional port discharge surcharge of $1.50 per ton. The seller is believed to be Posco Trading Co., Ltd., and the cargo is expected to arrive in South Korea around January 5, 2026. 4. For corn sourced from the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, the shipping period is November 27 to December 16; for corn sourced from South America, the shipping period is advanced to November 2 to 21. 5. This purchase was completed through NH Feed, a subsidiary of NOFI. This transaction method highlights that Asian buyers are adopting more flexible strategies in grain procurement to avoid price fluctuations.

17:52:57

[South Korean Feed Giant Makes Move! 65,000 Tons of Corn Quietly Secured] ⑴ Nonghyup Feed (NOFI), a leading South Korean feed producer, conducted a private transaction for approximately 65,000 tons of corn last week. This purchase was not conducted through an international tender, demonstrating market flexibility. ⑵ Detailed pricing information for this purchase indicates that approximately 45,000 tons were purchased at $231.75 per ton cost and freight (C&F). The remainder was purchased at a premium of 170.50 cents per bushel (C&F) to the Chicago December corn futures price. Both transactions included an additional port discharge surcharge of $1.50 per ton. The transaction was conducted by the trading company POSCO. ⑶ The corn is expected to arrive in South Korea around January 5, 2026. For corn sourced from the US Pacific Northwest, the shipping period is November 27 to December 16. For corn sourced from South America, the shipping period is November 2 to November 21. This transaction reflects dealer assessments, and additional price and quantity estimates may be available in the future.

17:47:25

[European Financial Giant Issues Bonds! €50 Billion AT1 Bonds Spark Frenzy of Demand] ⑴ Spain's CaixaBank successfully issued €500 million in Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds with a coupon rate of 5.875%. The final order book exceeded €4.5 billion, with a nine-fold oversubscription. ⑵ Investor geographic distribution showed that the UK and Ireland accounted for the largest share (49%), followed by France at 12%, Asian investors at 11%, the Benelux at 8%, the DACH region (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland) at 6%, Southern Europe at 5%, Canada at 5%, and other regions at 4%. ⑶ Investor type breakdown showed that asset management firms led the demand, accounting for 64%, hedge funds at 18%, insurance and pension funds at 8%, central banks and official institutions at 7%, and banks and private banks at just 3%. (4) The bonds are perpetual bonds with a first call date of March 25, 2035. They have a conversion trigger of 5.125% of Tier 1 (CET1) capital, which triggers a mandatory conversion into common stock when the bank's CET1 ratio falls below this threshold. (5) The issuance is jointly coordinated by Barclays, BofA Securities, CaixaBank, HSBC, and JPMorgan Chase. The bonds will be listed on Spain's AIAF fixed income market and are intended for professional investors.

17:45:57

[Pound Sterling Under Pressure Ahead of the Fed Decision, 1.3650 Becomes a Focus for Bulls and Bears] ⑴ After falling to 1.3630 against the US dollar in early London trading, the British pound re-approached the key 1.3650 option level, corresponding to the key option threshold expiring at 10:00 AM New York time (10:00 PM Beijing Time on Wednesday). ⑵ The decline in the exchange rate was directly influenced by UK inflation data: September's CPI year-on-year increase reached 3.8% as expected, with 1.3630 reaching its lowest level since Tuesday's 10-week high of 1.3670. ⑶ The previous surge to 1.3670 was primarily driven by US dollar selling ahead of the Fed's decision, with the market generally expecting the Fed to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut at 02:00 Beijing Time on Thursday. ⑷ The geopolitical event of the UK welcoming Trump's visit introduced additional volatility, but the magnetic effect of the 1.3650 option expiration price continued to dominate short-term trading.

17:40:14

[Fiscal concerns weigh on the pound, making it difficult to resolve its dilemma] ⑴ The latest UK labor market and CPI data were basically in line with expectations and failed to change the market's expectations of the Bank of England's interest rate path, so the boost to the pound was extremely limited. ⑵ The Bank of England will announce its policy decision on Thursday, and the market generally expects it to remain on hold. The most noteworthy focus of this meeting will be the decision to adjust the quantitative tightening program. ⑶ The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reported that it would lower its productivity forecast, which once again highlighted the fiscal risks facing the pound; although the Chancellor of the Exchequer set the budget date at November 26 to temporarily stabilize the market, fiscal concerns were only postponed rather than eliminated. ⑷ The report shows that due to the expected decline in productivity, the UK's fiscal gap may be as high as "tens of billions" of pounds; against this background, the euro rose slightly against the pound to around the 0.87 mark. Although the currency pair as a whole is still fluctuating in a range, potential fiscal risks will limit its room for correction.

17:39:07

[German government bond auction: yields soared, but demand unexpectedly cooled] ⑴ On Tuesday, Germany issued two incremental auctions of 30-year government bonds. The first auction issued €78.6 million of 1.25% coupon bonds with an average yield of 3.18%, higher than the previous 2.96%. ⑵ Despite the increase in yields, the bid/cover ratio (Bid/Cover) of this auction was 1.5, an increase from 1.3 in the previous auction, indicating a certain degree of demand. ⑶ The second auction that followed issued €1.13 billion of 2.90% coupon bonds, with the average yield further climbing to 3.25%, much higher than the previous 2.96%. ⑷ However, the bid/cover ratio of the second auction dropped significantly to 1.8, lower than the previous 1.3, indicating that the market demand for this high-yield government bond was relatively weakened.

17:37:24

[Fiscal Belt Tightening: East Africa's Lion Cuts Spending and Borrowing] ⑴ Uganda's Ministry of Finance documents indicate plans for significant public spending cuts in the 2026/27 fiscal year, with an overall reduction projected at 4.1%. This means public spending over the next 12 months will fall from 72.4 trillion Ugandan shillings (approximately US$20.7 billion) in the previous period to 69.4 trillion Ugandan shillings (approximately US$19.9 billion). ⑵ One of the main objectives of this fiscal tightening is to reduce domestic borrowing to lower the burden of interest payments. Planned domestic borrowing through treasury bills and bonds is projected to fall 21.1% from the previous period to 9 trillion Ugandan shillings. ⑶ The document emphasizes that spending in the new fiscal year will prioritize completing the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, aiming for early crude oil production. Funds will also be invested in the quantitative assessment of iron ore, gold, and copper resources, as well as in the construction of refineries and the ongoing standard-gauge railway project. ⑷ The Ministry of Finance stated that the reduction in borrowing is to maintain debt sustainability and keep the ratio of interest expenditure to revenue within a controllable range.

17:36:39

[Inflation Quietly Cools, South Africa's Barrier to Interest Rate Cuts Quietly Lowers] ⑴ Latest data shows that South Africa's inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 3.3% in August, lower than the previous forecast of 3.6% and significantly lower than 3.5% in July. ⑵ This unexpected decline in inflation was primarily due to moderate performance in fuel and food prices. ⑶ Given that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has adjusted its inflation target to 3%, this downward inflation data may open up new room for the bank to decide on an interest rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. ⑷ In fact, the SARB has already cut interest rates three times this year, demonstrating its accommodative monetary policy stance. ⑸ However, some market analysts believe that the potential impact of Trump's tariff remarks has yet to fully materialize, and the central bank may cautiously monitor any further impact on the economy and prices. ⑹ Despite this, some institutions have predicted that the SARB may announce a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting, arguing that weak economic growth also requires monetary policy support. ⑺ Others maintain that the central bank will maintain interest rates unchanged, pending the potential price fluctuations caused by Trump's tariff remarks. ⑻ Overall, Thursday’s interest rate decision will face an imminent suspense, and inflation data will undoubtedly become a key variable influencing decision-making.

17:35:53

[EUR/USD 1.19-1.20: Huge Options Positions Undercurrent] ⑴ EUR/USD faces a significant amount of options positions in the 1.1900-1.2000 range, which could have a significant impact on the pair's performance. ⑵ Since the beginning of this year, FX options traders have been heavily invested in Euro call barrier options, which grant the holder the right to buy the euro if a specific trigger price is reached but not traded. ⑶ Although many of these options have expired in-the-money, significant positions remain, with some at 1.1900 and a significant concentration at 1.2000. ⑷ In addition, barrier options also exist in this area and beyond, adding to the complexity of the market. ⑸ While the specifics of net positions are unavailable, it is expected that the 1.19-1.20 range will face strong support, potentially increasing volatility and offering upside potential. ⑹ Previously, selling on top gamma helped boost spot and option prices this week. ⑺ The market generally expects that options layout has been prepared for the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday (Beijing time), which may trigger violent fluctuations.

17:33:08

[Restructuring Suspicions: Giant UBS Deeply Involved in Gas Energy Stocks] ⑴ In response to recent restructuring rumors surrounding ENN Energy Holdings Ltd., UBS AG, acting as an exempt principal dealer, conducted a series of transactions involving the company's common stock on September 16. ⑵ Data shows that UBS AG purchased a total of 21,600 shares of common stock through various transactions that day, totaling $1.41693 million. This was intended to hedge client-driven passive orders and close out proprietary positions resulting from client transactions. ⑶ Concurrently, UBS AG also sold 5,600 shares of common stock, raising $367,620. These transactions involved pre-existing index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ⑷ These frequent capital flows indicate that large financial institutions are actively participating in ENN Energy's restructuring process through various hedging and position adjustments, sparking market attention to the restructuring's progress and potential impact.

17:32:07

[Eurozone liquidity surges: ECB overnight deposits hit record high] ⑴ On Wednesday, the European Central Bank released the latest liquidity data, showing a significant increase in the amount of overnight deposits in the eurozone banking system. ⑵ The data showed that banks borrowed 13 million euros through the ECB's overnight lending facility, a slight increase from 10 million euros the previous day. ⑶ The use of overnight deposit tools surged to 261.72 billion euros, an increase of approximately 42.1 billion euros from 257.51 billion euros the previous day, reflecting ample bank liquidity. ⑷ Banks' current account holdings at the ECB were 175.969 billion euros, down approximately 49.9 billion euros from 225.85 billion euros the previous day. ⑸ The above data highlight that the eurozone banking system tends to deposit large amounts of funds with the ECB to ensure liquidity safety in the current economic environment.

17:27:30

[On the eve of the Fed's rate cut: European credit default costs hover at low levels] ⑴ On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday. The market generally expects a rate cut, and the cost of European credit default insurance remains low. ⑵ AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould pointed out that the first Fed rate cut in 2025, which investors have been looking forward to all year, is approaching, and market sentiment is high. ⑶ Institutional data shows that the iTraxx European Cross Index (Euro junk bond credit default swaps) fell 1 basis point to 251 basis points on Wednesday, close to the 3.5-year low of 248 basis points set on Monday. ⑷ The market expects that a 25 basis point rate cut will further boost market sentiment, but if there is a large rate cut of 50 basis points (less likely), it may trigger concerns about the outlook for the US economy. ⑸ European credit markets remained stable before the Fed's decision, reflecting investors' optimistic expectations for rate cuts and cautious attitude towards economic risks.

17:25:31

[Malaysia's budget seeks progress while maintaining stability: the delicate balance between fiscal consolidation and economic growth] ⑴ Malaysia's 2026 budget will be announced on October 10. OCBC Research shows that despite the unfavorable external environment, fiscal consolidation will continue to advance moderately. ? The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline from 3.8% in 2025 to 3.4%-3.6% in 2026, reflecting prudent fiscal management. ⑶ Economic growth is forecast to be 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, with tax stability and subsidy reforms providing support for the economy. ⑷ Expanding the sales and services tax base and implementing electronic invoices will increase fiscal revenue and enhance economic resilience. ⑸ Civil servant salary increases, pensions, and measures to support households and businesses will increase spending pressure, requiring careful balance. ⑹ The Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in November, but may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the first half of 2026, reflecting policy flexibility.

17:22:51

[Jefferies raises Baidu's Hong Kong stock target price to HK$152, optimistic about its multi-dimensional breakthroughs in AI business] ⑴ Jefferies released a research report on Wednesday stating that Baidu (09988.HK)'s recent developments in the field of artificial intelligence continue to attract market attention, and the progress of many businesses has demonstrated significant competitiveness. Specifically, Baidu has successfully signed multiple large-scale AI cooperation customers and is recognized by the industry as a key core enterprise in terms of market share of AI cloud services and large customer penetration. At the same time, the technical iteration and application implementation of its self-developed Kunlun chip are also progressing steadily. ⑵ In addition, Baidu's AI agent (AIAgent) and digital human (digitalhuman) businesses are entering a rapid growth channel, and the pace of commercialization and monetization is accelerating; the autonomous driving platform ApolloGo has also begun to expand into overseas markets, further broadening the boundaries of its business. Jefferies believes that Baidu's current share price fully reflects the company's emphasis on user experience optimization and investment results during its AI search transformation. Therefore, it maintains a "buy" investment rating on Baidu and raises its target price: the US stock target price is raised from US$108 to US$157, and the Hong Kong stock target price is raised from HK$104 to HK$152. It is worth mentioning that Baidu's previously disclosed information shows that its AI-related technologies have been widely applied in vertical industries such as education and healthcare, and the number of cases in which it has helped traditional industries reduce costs and increase efficiency is gradually increasing.

17:21:52

[Stubborn inflation in the UK: The road to rate cuts is thorny] ⑴ Sebastian Vismara, chief investment strategist at BNY Mellon Investment Management, said that high inflation in the UK limits the Bank of England's room for future rate cuts. ⑵ The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance at its meeting on Thursday, consistent with its August guidance, emphasizing the need to ease price pressures. ⑶ Continued high inflation in the service sector, combined with resilient GDP growth, limits the room for easing policy over the next 12 months. ⑷ The money market expects the benchmark interest rate to fall from 4.0% to 3.5% in 2026, but institutions predict a low of 3.75%. ⑸ Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is under pressure around 1.30, and a break below it could test the key support level of 1.2950. ⑹ From a trading psychological perspective, investors have increased their expectations for hawkish signals from the Bank of England and need to be wary of short-term market fluctuations. ⑺ Trump's tariff remarks have exacerbated global uncertainty, which may weaken the attractiveness of the pound and increase risk aversion.

17:21:19

[Chinese concept stocks performed well before the opening of the U.S. stock market: many China-related ETFs rose in tandem with popular stocks] ⑴ During the pre-market trading session of the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, many ETFs tracking the Chinese market showed an upward trend. Among them, the iShares MSCI China ETF rose by 1.3%, the iShares China Large Cap ETF rose by 1.4%, and the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, which focuses on the Internet sector, performed even better, with the increase climbing to 2.5%. ⑵ In terms of individual stocks, the Chinese concept stock sector also had a positive momentum. JD.com (JD.O) rose 1.8% before the market opened, and the three leading new energy vehicle companies collectively strengthened. Li Auto (LI.O) rose 3%, and NIO (NIO.N) led the new car-making forces with a 4.6% increase. Xpeng Motors (XPEV.N) also recorded a 1.8% increase.

17:20:01

Tax revenue has seen a steady increase this year, driven by a stable and improving economy and a relatively active capital market. From January to August this year, tax revenue collected by tax authorities increased by 2% year-on-year, with a significant rebound in revenue growth in July and August. Huang Lixin, Director of the Institute of Tax Science under the State Administration of Taxation, stated that preliminary analysis suggests three main factors: First, the stable and improving economy. Second, active capital market transactions drove a significant increase. Capital market activity increased significantly in July and August, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,800 points in August, a ten-year high. The total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and the average daily stock trading volume reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a new high for the year. This active capital market activity not only directly led to a significant increase in tax revenue for capital market services, but also boosted tax revenue for capital market-related industries. For example, in July and August, tax revenue for the securities industry increased by over 70%, and for the insurance industry by over 10%. Furthermore, increased corporate investment income and stock dividends also led to increased corporate and personal income tax revenue. Third, taxpayers' awareness of paying taxes in accordance with the law and in good faith has significantly increased. (China Taxation News)

17:19:23

The final reading of the eurozone's CPI for August excluding tobacco

Previous : 128.49 Forecast : -

Published Value 128.68

17:19:17

[YINN.US stocks surged in pre-market trading, with gains exceeding 4%] Leveraged ETFs tracking relevant indices in the US stock market performed well, with the 3x long FTSE China ETF (YINN.US) continuing to rise in pre-market trading, with gains exceeding 4%.

17:18:58

[UK Inflation Remains High: Food Prices Fuel Market Anxiety] ⑴ Wednesday's data showed that the UK inflation rate remained steady at 3.8% in August, higher than the US (2.9%) and the Eurozone (2.1%). ⑵ Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 5.1% year-on-year, the highest since January last year, pushing up public inflation expectations. ⑶ Services inflation fell from 5.0% in July to 4.7%, still a key focus for the Bank of England and indicating cost pressures. ⑷ Core inflation (excluding energy, food, and tobacco) fell from 3.8% to 3.6%, easing some inflationary pressures. ⑸ The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates at 4% on Thursday due to elevated inflation risks, with inflation potentially rising to 4% in September. ⑹ Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is under pressure at the 1.30 level; a break below could further test the 1.2950 support level. ⑺ Psychologically, market expectations of a delay in the Bank of England's rate cut are growing, and investors should be wary of food price fluctuations. ⑻ Trump's tariff remarks have exacerbated global uncertainty. The British pound may be weighed down by risk aversion. We recommend focusing on risk management.

17:17:39

Italy's Treasury spends €5 billion to buy back six bonds due in 2026

17:17:34

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,370.00/oz mark and was last trading at $1,369.95/oz, down 1.93% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,383.7/oz, down 1.34% on the day.

17:16:34

[Kingsoft Cloud leads gains over 7%, GDS and 21Vianet receive "buy" ratings from Bank of America] ⑴ Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US) rose over 7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, closing at $17.2; GDS (GDS.US) and 21Vianet (VNET.US) both rose over 2%. ⑵ Bank of America Securities, in its latest research report, noted that recent investor engagements with management from several software, data center, and cloud computing companies have revealed steady progress in AI commercialization by software companies, with contract values continuing to rise. Furthermore, the application of AI agents and AI encoding technologies is improving operational efficiency. ⑶ The bank is particularly bullish on GDS, 21Vianet, and Kingsoft Cloud in the data center and public cloud sectors, believing that strong AI demand is driving these companies' performance to exceed expectations. Therefore, they all receive "buy" ratings. Kingsoft Cloud expanded its AI inference applications to several new internet clients in the second quarter of this year. GDS secured hyperscale AI orders covering data centers in two first-tier cities in the first quarter. 21Vianet saw a significant 112.5% year-on-year increase in base-based IDC revenue in the second quarter, securing a 20-megawatt order. ⑷In addition, Goldman Sachs' research report also stated that in China's Internet sector, priority should be given to sub-sectors such as cloud computing and data centers, among which 21Vianet and GDS are optimistic.

17:15:34

[The Canadian Dollar's Fate Hangs on Policy Signals: Markets Hold Their Breath] ⑴ Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister stated that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. ⑵ The continued weakness of the real economy has prompted the Bank of Canada to adopt an easing policy to stimulate growth. ⑶ The market has already priced in the rate cut, and the decision itself has limited impact on the Canadian dollar, with the focus shifting to future policy signals. ⑷ If the Bank of Canada hints at further rate cuts in the coming months, the Canadian dollar could face significant depreciation pressure. ⑸ Technical analysis shows that USD/CAD has recently fluctuated around 1.36, and a break above 1.3650 could trigger an upward trend. ⑹ From a trading perspective, investors should monitor the Bank of Canada's wording after the decision and be cautious about short-term volatility risks. ⑺ Trump's tariff remarks have exacerbated global market uncertainty, potentially indirectly reducing the Canadian dollar's appeal. ⑻ Traders are advised to closely monitor the 1.35 support level and implement risk management to mitigate volatility caused by policy signals.

17:14:28

[Eurozone Inflation Slowdown: Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities Coexist] ⑴ Eurozone headline inflation in August was 2.0% year-on-year, below the agency's forecast of 2.1% and only 0.1% month-on-month, reflecting weak demand. ⑵ Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) was 2.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating stable price pressures. ⑶ Food and alcohol prices rose to 3.2% year-on-year, but unprocessed food prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, indicating that supply-side fluctuations are affecting inflation. ⑷ Energy prices fell 2.0% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, continuing to drag down overall inflation and highlighting the sluggish energy market. ⑸ Services inflation was 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, remaining the primary driver of inflation, reflecting rising labor costs. ⑹ From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD has been recently influenced by inflation data, with the 1.10 level providing key support. A break below could test 1.09. ⑺ From a trading perspective, market expectations for an ECB rate cut are growing, and investors should be wary of short-term volatility triggered by the data. ⑻ Trump's tariff remarks have exacerbated market uncertainty. Euro assets may face pressure from risk aversion. We recommend focusing on risk management.

17:14:00

Wheat Export Forecast Raised, Inventory Warning Signal Emerges (⑴) The French Ministry of Agriculture (FranceAgriMer) recently raised its forecast for French wheat exports outside the EU for the 2025/26 fiscal year, from 7.5 million tons in July to 7.85 million tons, indicating continued optimism about overseas demand for French wheat. (⑵) At the same time, the agency maintained its forecast for French wheat exports within the EU for the 2025/26 fiscal year at 6.74 million tons, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 6.72 million tons, indicating stable demand within the EU. (⑶) Notably, France's estimated ending stocks for the 2025/26 fiscal year have been lowered to 3.64 million tons, down from the previous forecast of 3.87 million tons. This reduction in stocks may provide support for future market prices. ⑷ In addition, in terms of other grains, France's ending stocks of barley in 2025/26 are expected to be 2.19 million tons, a slight increase from 2.19 million tons in the previous year, while corn ending stocks also rose slightly to 2.23 million tons, indicating that the supply of other grains is relatively abundant, which may partially alleviate market concerns about wheat.

17:07:11

[Hundreds of billions of dollars bet on technology, alternative credit booms again] ⑴ The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) disclosed that the sovereign wealth fund significantly increased its investments in specific asset classes, particularly alternative credit, in 2024. This strategy was driven by the second consecutive year of "significant returns" in risky assets, demonstrating that the fund is broadening its exposure to specific asset classes after gaining a deeper understanding of the risk-return dynamics of its portfolio. ⑵ ADIA's 20-year and 30-year annualized returns in 2024 were 6.3% and 7.1%, respectively, representing slight fluctuations from 6.4% and 6.8% in 2023, but overall solid performance. Fund management specifically noted that its dynamic approach to alternative credit investments has successfully capitalized on the growing market demand for alternative and flexible financing, making the asset class a key focus for its private equity, real estate, and infrastructure teams. ⑶ Looking ahead to 2025, ADIA anticipates continued complex global economic conditions, with stable or slightly rising inflation and the potential for further concentration in the US stock market, which will pose challenges for fund managers. To this end, ADIA will continue to bet on the technology sector and emphasize the effective use of data to cope with the ever-changing investment environment, in order to achieve sustained growth in a complex and changing macroeconomic context.

17:06:40

[Undercurrents in French Politics: The New Prime Minister's Game of Threats Amidst the Budget Crisis] ⑴ France's new Prime Minister, Jean-Michel Le Cornu, faces a daunting challenge. His primary task is to negotiate with various political parties over the 2026 budget. The previous prime minister's resignation over austerity measures highlighted the sensitivity of fiscal balance. ⑵ The French Socialist Party has put forward a series of demands, including reversing spending cuts, imposing a new wealth tax on the wealthy, and increasing purchasing power. A poll showed that 86% of respondents support the new wealth tax, while 66% support suspending pension reform, providing significant public support for the Socialist Party. ⑶ However, the Socialist Party faces a political dilemma. Excessive pressure could trigger a deeper political crisis, even forcing the president to call early parliamentary elections, a result that polls suggest is unfavorable to the left. Socialist Party leaders have stated that the party is willing to compromise, but only if the government makes "clear concessions." 4. France currently faces enormous fiscal pressure, with its budget deficit nearly double the EU's 3% ceiling and its debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 114%. Against this backdrop, the new prime minister will need to balance the demands of various parties while ensuring fiscal discipline. 5. This Thursday, unions and left-wing groups plan nationwide protests, focusing not only on the budget but also on wages, pensions, and public services. The government has mobilized approximately 80,000 police officers to prepare for possible blockades and potential violence.

17:00:26

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: The weekly US Dollar Index is trading near the lower Bollinger Band (MB), with the middle Bollinger Band at 98.9338, the upper Bollinger Band at 102.3525, and the lower Bollinger Band at 95.5152. The recent candlestick chart has formed a small range between 96.3729 and 97.6500, significantly below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating that the downtrend remains dominant. Resistance levels at the highs of 107.3530 and 110.1699 are clearly emerging, while the previous low of 99.5494 has shifted from support to resistance. Indicator resonance: The DIFF of the MACD indicator is -1.3623, the DEA is -1.5016, and the MACD histogram is 0.2787, which means that the bearish momentum is weakening but still below the zero axis, which is more like a technical rebound from the previous oversold situation. The relative strength index RSI (14) is 33.9631, which is in the weak range of 30-40. If the middle Bollinger band cannot be recovered in the future, the RSI will likely remain at a low level. Comprehensively judging, 95.5152 (lower Bollinger band) and 96.3729 constitute the first support, and further support is expected to be around the integer of 95; the initial resistance above is 97.6500 and 98.9338 (middle Bollinger band), and strong resistance is at 100, 102.3525 and 107.3530. In the short term, if there is an effective break above 97.6500 and the MACD column turns red and expands, a "mean reversion" rebound can be confirmed, and the upper limit of the rebound should be 98.9338-100. On the contrary, if it falls below 96.3729 and is accompanied by an upward trend in volatility and an expansion of the entity, it will point to a retracement of 95.5152. At that time, we need to be alert to the accelerated decline after the passive opening of the lower track.

17:00:05

Eurozone harmonized CPI annual rate for August - unadjusted final reading

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : 2.10%

美元

欧元金银

Published Value 2%

17:00:05

The final annual rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for August

Previous : 2% Forecast : -

Published Value 2%

17:00:05

The final reading of the harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for the eurozone in August

Previous : 128.49 Forecast : -

Published Value 128.68

17:00:04

Eurozone core harmonized CPI annual rate for August - unadjusted final reading

Previous : 2.30% Forecast : 2.30%

Neutral

Published Value 2.30%

17:00:03

The final reading of the eurozone's harmonized CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

美元

欧元金银

Published Value 0.10%

17:00:03

The final monthly rate of the harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for the eurozone in August

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 0.10%

17:00:03

The final annual rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for August

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.30%

17:00:03

The final reading of the Eurozone's core harmonized CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

17:00:03

The final monthly rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for August

Previous : 0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

16:57:35

Fed Night: Bigger variables beyond rate cuts Details>

16:56:03

[Asia-Pacific Oil Market Shakeup: Giants Eye Singapore Refinery, Undercurrent of a Hundred-Billion-Dollar Deal] ⑴ Market rumors suggest that international energy giants Vitol and Glencore are actively preparing to bid for Chevron's 50% stake in Singapore's second-largest refinery. This move suggests a potential deal worth approximately $1 billion is imminent, profoundly impacting the energy landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. With an average daily crude oil processing capacity of 290,000 barrels, the refinery is a key refining and petrochemical hub in Singapore. A change in ownership of a 50% stake would impact the sensitive energy supply landscape of the region. ⑵ The potentially high valuation of this transaction not only tests the negotiating acumen of both parties but also reflects the market's reassessment of the value of Asian refining and petrochemical assets. As leading global commodity traders, Vitol and Glencore's strategic adjustments often provide important insights into future market trends. PetroChina, which holds the other half of the refinery's equity, holds a right of first refusal, adding further uncertainty and room for maneuver in the acquisition, and the market is closely monitoring developments from all parties involved. ⑶ It is worth noting that this battle among giants for the Singapore refinery takes place against the backdrop of global energy transition and intensified geopolitical competition. Under the influence of multiple factors, the value of energy assets is being re-evaluated. Investors and traders should closely monitor the development of this event, as its ultimate outcome may have a profound impact on regional energy prices, supply chain security, and even the stock prices of related companies. A battle for strategic resources is quietly unfolding.

16:55:48

Indonesia's unexpected interest rate cut boosts stock markets, Asian markets poised for action. ⑴ Bank Indonesia unexpectedly announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to prioritize economic development, boosting the Indonesian stock market, which rose 0.7% and is on track to reach a new record high. ⑵ Despite domestic unrest, investors' confidence in the Indonesian government's ability to maintain fiscal discipline remained unshaken. The rupiah remained largely stable against the US dollar, and the 10-year government bond yield remained flat at 6.339%. ⑶ Within the region, most Asian emerging market stocks hovered at high levels after nine consecutive days of gains. The overall gains were capped by some markets, such as South Korea, which retreated from their all-time highs. ⑷ Global stock markets showed optimism on expectations that the Federal Reserve would announce a rate cut and potentially signal further easing, leading to a rise in risk appetite. ⑸ Lower US dollar interest rates generally increase the appeal of emerging market assets, offering investors higher yields and potential currency appreciation.

16:54:53

The Fed's first rate cut is expected to happen tonight! Market divergence intensifies, could the US dollar index be priced in early? Details>

16:48:54

UBS raised its target price for the Stoxx 600 index to 600 points in 2025 from the current level of around 551 points, and raised its target price to 650 points in 2026.

16:48:44

[The USD/JPY exchange rate has bottomed out and rebounded, with expectations of easing and a modest rebound coexisting.] ⑴ On Tuesday (Beijing time), the USD/JPY pair briefly fell from 147.54 to 146.28, closing at 146.66-148.55 that day. This marked the first time the pair has closed outside this range since July 4th. ⑵ On Wednesday, the exchange rate rebounded modestly, rising from 146.22 to 146.68. The support level of 146.22 coincided with the low of August 14th, demonstrating some resilience. ⑶ Market focus is shifting to this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the Bank of Japan's policy moves, which may provide new guidance for exchange rate trends. ⑷ Constrained by market expectations of a Fed rate cut and the narrowing of the US/Japan interest rate differential, the upward momentum of the USD/JPY exchange rate has been curbed, favoring a modest decline in the short term. ⑸ Notably, historical data shows that the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY currency pairs typically rise in September, and this seasonal pattern may be reflected in the near future.

16:46:17

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.65% to 4.003.

16:44:28

The Netherlands Treasury Lowers its Bond Issuance Expectations, Cautiously Fluctuating Market Sentiment: (1) On Wednesday, the Netherlands Treasury released its quarterly review, announcing a slight downward revision to its 2025 bond issuance forecast to €87.1 billion, a decrease of €1.8 billion from its previous forecast, equivalent to approximately $103.37 billion. (2) The report noted that the cash deficit narrowed compared to its end-June forecast, indicating a slight easing of fiscal pressures and boosting market confidence in the robustness of the Dutch economy. (3) Despite the downward revision in bond issuance, the Netherlands Treasury maintained its 2025 government bond issuance target at €40 billion, reflecting the stability of its financing strategy. (4) Three bond auctions are scheduled for the fourth quarter, and traders should monitor their results as they may impact the yield curve and liquidity expectations in the eurozone bond market. (5) Technically, eurozone bond markets have seen increased volatility recently, with investor speculation about the ECB's monetary policy path exacerbating short-term trading uncertainty. (6) Psychologically, the market reaction to the Netherlands Treasury's move was mild, but coupled with global trade uncertainty sparked by Trump's tariff rhetoric, investor sentiment remained cautious.

16:37:42

Interest rate cut imminent! How close is the Fed to turning on stimulus mode? Details>

16:37:30

The annual rate of the DCLG house price index in the UK for July

Previous : 3.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.80%

16:35:55

Copper prices fell due to a stronger dollar and anticipation of Powell's speech. ⑴ Copper prices fell, primarily due to a stronger dollar and market anticipation for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's evening policy speech. ⑵ London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell 1.3% to $9,985 per ton. ⑶ The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96.82, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of non-US currencies. ⑷ LME three-month aluminum fell 0.3%, but prices remained above $2,700 per ton, supported by rising physical demand and tight inventories.

16:34:45

FTSE 100 Index Tries to Rebound, UK Inflation Remains Flat at 18-Month High] ⑴ The FTSE 100 Index edged higher on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak after falling 0.9% the previous session. British gas group Centrica led gains, rising over 3%, after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "overweight" for the first time in two years, citing its capital investment in the Sizewell C nuclear power project and the Grain LNG terminal. The bank ranked it among its top UK utilities, noting its low yield sensitivity to recent UK government bond market volatility. ⑵ AstraZeneca's share price fell 0.7% after its asthma drug Fasenra failed to meet its primary endpoint in its second late-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) trial, raising concerns about its respiratory pipeline. ⑶ Data showed that UK CPI remained flat at 3.8% year-on-year in August, the same as in July and an 18-month high, in line with expectations. Combined with this week's employment data, market expectations for Bank of England policy remain stable, with only an 8 basis point interest rate cut expected before the end of the year. ⑷ Later, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut.

16:34:17

South Africa's Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slowed in August: (1) South Africa's annualized inflation rate fell to 3.3% in August, down from a ten-month high of 3.5% in July and below market expectations of 3.6%. (2) The easing of overall inflation was primarily due to a slowdown in food price growth (5.2%, compared to 5.7% in the previous month) and lower fuel costs (-5.7%, compared to -5.5% in the previous month). (3) Core inflation (excluding food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy) rose to 3.1% in August, up from 3% in the previous month and reaching its highest level since March this year. (4) Month-on-month data showed that the CPI fell slightly by 0.1% in August, compared to a 0.9% increase in the previous month.

16:33:58

UK house prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, while private rents rose 5.7% in August. (1) The UK Office for National Statistics released data showing that the average house price in the UK rose 2.8% in the 12 months ending July 2025. (2) Data also showed that monthly private rents in the UK rose 5.7% year-on-year in the 12 months ending August 2025.

16:30:01

Vitol and Glencore are expected to make formal bids for Chevron's 50 percent stake in Singapore's second-largest refinery, sources said.

16:28:46

[Latest Trends in Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Data] ⑴ The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the early hours of the 18th. UBS economists predict that it will continue to cut interest rates until March 2026, shifting its policy stance from restrictive to neutral. ⑵ Singapore's non-oil domestic exports fell 4.9% year-on-year in August, the largest drop since March 2024, primarily due to the drag from non-electronic products. United Overseas Bank (UOB) expects export growth to be at the lower end of the 1%-3% range in 2025. ⑶ UK inflation remained at 3.8% in August, with services inflation falling from 5.0% to 4.7%. Deutsche Bank believes the data partially corrects July's unexpected upward trend, but food inflation remains at 5.1%. ⑷ The euro recently hit a four-year high against the US dollar. ING predicts that if the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle and the European Central Bank maintains interest rates, the euro could test the 1.20 mark. ⑸ The German Finance Ministry expects to increase its fourth-quarter debt issuance plan by €15 billion, of which €12 billion will be bonds. Citi Research indicates that half of the additional issuance may be allocated to seven-year bonds. (6) Gold futures fell 0.5% to $3,706.50 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96.82. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and retail sales data, which showed three consecutive months of growth. (7) The market expects the Fed's consecutive rate cuts to support risky assets. Investors are focused on Powell's balance between a slowing labor market and inflation risks. (8) The UK 10-year government bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.626%. EFG Asset Management believes that slowing service sector inflation increases the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in the last quarter of 2025. (9) The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1% to 96.745, near a two-and-a-half-month low. Market pricing indicates a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve. A 50 basis point cut could trigger significant currency fluctuations. (9) Maybank, citing a rebound in Singapore's manufacturing PMI and expanding demand for AI, expects electronics exports to resume growth in September. Fiscal support and a booming construction sector are expected to mitigate the impact of slowing trade. ⑾ UK ICAEW economists believe August's inflation data puts an end to expectations of an interest rate cut this year. Rising business costs could push inflation above 4% in September, but slowing service sector inflation suggests easing price pressures. ⑿ UK-based ASK Partners notes that global volatility and domestic policy shifts have created a dilemma for the Bank of England. Markets are pricing in a 40% probability of a December rate cut, and the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to maintain interest rates until the November budget.

16:25:06

New Fortress Energy's stock surged another 55% in pre-market trading, bringing its two-day gain to approximately 100%. New Fortress Energy, a US energy infrastructure company, continued its surge in pre-market trading, now up over 55%. The stock had already closed up nearly 45% yesterday, bringing its two-day gain to approximately 100%. The company announced it had secured a $4 billion liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement to supply Puerto Rico.

16:20:13

[Pound Sterling Holds Steady at 1.3638, Bank of England Holds Expectations Stronger] ⑴ The British pound held steady against the US dollar at around 1.3638. UK inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged this week. ⑵ UK inflation remained at 3.8% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll, suggesting that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. ⑶ The market generally expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged at 4% on Thursday, in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's impending rate cut. ⑷ The pound rose slightly against the euro, with the euro falling 0.07% to 0.8689 pounds. ⑸ Deutsche Bank economists noted that the August inflation data revised the previous month's unexpected upward trend, but the CPI may still take some time to peak. ⑹ Market focus shifted to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% later on Wednesday. ⑺ The European Central Bank held interest rates steady last week, indicating a divergence in policy direction among major central banks.

16:19:05

South Africa's inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3.3% in August, leaving the central bank with more room to cut interest rates. ⑴ South Africa's headline consumer inflation rose 3.3% year-on-year in August, unexpectedly slowing from 3.5% in July and below the 3.6% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. ⑵ This marked the third consecutive month that inflation remained within the central bank's 3%-6% target range, near the lower end of that range. ⑶ Well-controlled inflation has enabled the South African Reserve Bank to cut interest rates in three of its four policy meetings this year. ⑷ At its July meeting, the central bank lowered its inflation target from the midpoint of 4.5% to the lower end of the range of 3%. ⑸ The market expects the central bank to maintain the repurchase rate at 7% on Thursday to push inflation closer to its new 3% target. ⑹ Month-on-month inflation was -0.1% in August, a significant slowdown from 0.9% in July. ⑺ Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 3.1% year-on-year, in line with analyst expectations.

16:18:04

Indonesia's loan growth edged up to 7.56% in August, with the ratio of undrawn loans remaining high. (1) Indonesia's annual loan growth rate edged up to 7.56% in August 2025, a slight rebound from 7.03% in July (the lowest level since March 2022). (2) This modest acceleration in loan growth is attributed to continued cautious lending by banks and high interest rates. (3) The scale of undrawn loans remains high, reaching IDR 2,372.11 trillion as of August 2025, representing 22.71% of available credit. (4) Bank Indonesia maintained its forecast range for overall loan growth in 2025 of 8% to 11%.

16:15:38

On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the US dollar fell below a two-month low against the Japanese yen Details>

16:15:34

[General Administration of Customs: Trade environment indicators have declined] In 2024, with the reform of my country's financial market, expansion of opening up and optimization of cross-border policies, the financial environment for China-ASEAN trade will continue to improve, and the trade environment indicator will remain above 220. However, trade protectionism in some countries has risen, the market environment has been affected, and the trade environment indicator has dropped by 6.27 to 223.66.

16:15:17

[General Administration of Customs: The trade vitality index has the largest increase] ASEAN is a priority direction for China's peripheral diplomacy and a key region for high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road". China and ASEAN have always worked hand in hand and have become the most successful and dynamic model of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. In recent years, China and ASEAN have strengthened the connection between their advantageous products and consumer markets, and achieved remarkable results in market development. Faced with the vast ASEAN market, Chinese companies have seized the opportunity to develop ASEAN business. In 2024, the trade vitality index exceeded 200 for the first time, reaching 205.32, a record high, an increase of 14.3, and the largest increase among the five primary indicators.

16:15:07

[General Administration of Customs: Trade Potential Index Increases Significantly] As the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area upgrades from version 1.0 to version 3.0, China and ASEAN continue to open up, integrate, and develop together. As ASEAN's productivity and purchasing power continue to increase, bilateral trade demand will also increase. The trade potential index in 2024 will reach a record high of 173.19, an increase of 8.22%.

16:14:39

[General Administration of Customs: Trade Quality Index Continues to Rise] The superposition of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has effectively promoted industrial chain and supply chain cooperation within the China-ASEAN region and improved the level of trade liberalization and facilitation. Since the RCEP fully came into effect for the signatory countries in 2023, the trade quality index has increased for two consecutive years, increasing by 0.48 to 105.45 in 2024.

16:14:16

[General Administration of Customs: Trade Intensity Index Remains Stable] Since China and ASEAN became each other's largest trading partners in 2020, the Trade Intensity Index has remained above 130 for five consecutive years. As China-ASEAN trade cooperation gradually expands from openness based on the flow of goods and factors to institutional openness based on rules and standards, the closeness of trade in goods has weakened, and the Trade Intensity Index fell back to 131.72 in 2024.

16:13:57

The General Administration of Customs stated: In 2024, facing the complex and volatile global political and economic landscape, China and ASEAN continued to promote the building of a closer China-ASEAN community with a shared future, deepened their comprehensive strategic partnership, and advanced regional cooperation to a higher level. Bilateral trade reached a new high. China has maintained its position as ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, while ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years. Bilateral trade cooperation has demonstrated strong resilience and enormous potential. Since the official launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, the China-ASEAN Trade Index has steadily grown, reaching a record high of 167.87 in 2024, an increase of 2.93 percentage points from 2023 (the same below).

16:11:40

China's ASEAN Trade Index for 2024

Previous : 164.94 Forecast : -

Published Value 167.87

16:09:59

Hong Kong stocks surged today, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.78% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 4.22%. The Hong Kong Tech ETF (159751) closed up 3.10%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (159318) rose 1.60%. Internet and AI sectors led the gains, with SenseTime (W) and Baidu Group (SW) surging over 15%, and Alibaba (W) rising over 5%.

16:09:36

Indonesia appoints DJAMARI CHANIAGO as senior security minister.

16:09:18

European stocks rose slightly ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. ⑴ European stocks generally rose on Wednesday, with the STOXX 50 index rising 0.3% to 5,390 points and the STOXX 600 index rising 0.1%, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months, by at least 25 basis points, to balance a slowing labor market with tariff-driven inflationary pressures. ⑶ The market will closely monitor the Fed's quarterly "dot plot" for guidance on the future policy path. ⑷ UK inflation remained steady at 3.8% in August, the same as in July, and remains at its highest level since January 2024. The Bank of England will announce its policy decision the following day. ⑸ PostNL announced a new strategy, planning to split its parcel business into two divisions: e-commerce and platform, starting in 2026. Its share price surged 7%. ⑹ Novo Nordisk received an upgrade from "hold" to "buy" by Berenberg, sending its share price up 1.8%.

16:08:36

[France's CAC 40 Index Slightly Rises 0.2%, Awaiting the Fed's Decision] ⑴ The Paris CAC 40 Index rose 0.2% to 7,840 points on Wednesday, attempting to recover from a 1% drop in the previous trading day, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision later that day. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to implement its first 25 basis point interest rate cut in nearly nine months, with focus on Chairman Powell's press conference for hints on the future policy path. ⑶ European investors are also focused on the eurozone's final August inflation data, which will be released this morning, for further clues on inflationary pressures. ⑷ In terms of individual stocks, Edenred rose 1.0%, Accor Group rose 1.1%, and Essilor Luxottica rose 0.7%. ⑸ ENGIE fell 0.7%, ArcelorMittal fell 0.5%, and Teleperformance fell 0.5%.

16:08:11

Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%, marking the third consecutive month of easing. (1) Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its September policy meeting, defying market expectations of maintaining the rate at 5.0% and marking the third consecutive month of rate cuts. (2) This is the sixth rate cut since September of last year, bringing the benchmark rate to its lowest level since October 2022. (3) The decision was based on expectations that inflation will remain within the target range of 2.5%±1% for 2025-2026, the stability of the rupiah exchange rate, and the need for continued support for economic growth. (4) Latest data shows that GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in the second quarter, the fastest growth in two years; annualized inflation fell slightly to 2.31% in August, remaining within the target range. (5) The overnight deposit rate was simultaneously lowered by 50 basis points to 3.75%, and the lending rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 5.50%.

16:06:58

South Africa's unadjusted CPI reading for August

Previous : 103.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.20

16:03:36

Germany's DAX Index Rises 0.5%, Leading European Stock Markets Await the Fed's Decision. ⑴ The Frankfurt DAX Index rose 0.5%, breaking through the 23,400 point mark, outperforming other major European indices. ⑵ Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, to be announced later today. Markets generally expect a 25 basis point cut, the first since 2025. ⑶ The market is closely watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech for signals on the future path of easing. ⑷ SAP shares led the market higher, rising nearly 4%; Rheinmetall rose 2.6%, Porsche shares rose 1.4%, and Merck Group rose 1.1%.

16:03:10

[Global Markets Await the Federal Reserve's Decision, Narrowing Volatility Across Asset Classes] ⑴ Singapore's sharp decline in trade may be difficult to sustain. Maybank economists noted that although non-oil domestic exports fell for the second consecutive month in August, the August manufacturing PMI showed a rebound in overall manufacturing activity. ⑵ The German Finance Ministry is expected to increase its fourth-quarter bond issuance plan. Citi Research predicts an increase of €15 billion, including €12 billion in bonds and €3 billion in Treasury bills. ⑶ UK inflation remained stable at 3.8% in August, with core inflation falling to 3.6% in line with expectations, and services inflation falling from 5.0% to 4.7%. Deutsche Bank believes the data is generally positive, but food inflation, rising to 5.1%, continues to pose pressure. ⑷ Gold futures fell 0.5% to $3,706.50 per ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 96.82. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is closely watching Powell's comments on the pace of future easing. ⑸ The market is betting on the Fed starting a cycle of consecutive rate cuts. 6. The UK 10-year government bond yield fell 2 basis points to 4.626%. Slowing inflation increases the likelihood of a Q4 rate cut by the central bank. 7. The US dollar rose slightly by 0.1% to 96.745, near a two-and-a-half-month low. Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut. 8. Eurozone government bond yields fell slightly, with Germany's 10-year bond yield down 0.7 basis points to 2.690% and Greece's down 1.9 basis points to 3.338%. 9. The British pound fell slightly against the dollar to 1.3637, but remained stable against the euro. UK inflation was slightly lower than expected, but food price pressures remain. 10. US Treasury yields remained stable during Asian trading hours, with the two-year at 3.507%, the 10-year at 4.023%, and the 30-year at 4.643%. The market is closely watching the Fed's dot plot for guidance on future rate cuts. ⑾ Analysts believe the current starting point provides a greater cushion than in September 2024, with 10-year yields higher than then, limiting the risk of a repeat of significant increases. ⑿ Insight Investments notes that a rate cut environment is positive for investors in diversified global fixed income portfolios. While tariffs could drive up inflation, central banks may prioritize protecting the labor market.

16:01:15

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Copper

Previous : -1675 Forecast : -

Published Value -1175

16:01:07

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Nickel

Previous : 1950 Forecast : -

Published Value 2034

16:01:01

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Lead

Previous : 2225 Forecast : -

Published Value -2500

16:00:51

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Zinc

Previous : -1175 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:49

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Tin

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:47

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:44

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Primary aluminum

Previous : -1500 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:41

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:39

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on September 17th - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:00:23

South Africa's core CPI annual rate for August

Previous : 3% Forecast : 3.10%

Neutral

Published Value 3.10%

16:00:22

South Africa's core CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.10%

Neutral

Published Value 0.10%

16:00:18

South Africa's CPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -0.10%

16:00:11

South Africa's CPI annual rate in August

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : 3.60%

Published Value 3.30%

15:56:35

Governor of Bank Indonesia: We welcome the government's introduction of new economic stimulus measures, which will support the real economy. Commercial banks' high-interest loan rates are affected by rising deposit rates for large customers.

15:54:31

[my country's bicycle and electric bicycle ownership is approximately 580 million] Reporters learned from the China Bicycle Association that my country currently has over 200 million bicycles and approximately 380 million electric bicycles. The reduction in carbon emissions due to "two-wheeled travel" nationwide is approximately 10,000 tons per day. Based on a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, this is equivalent to saving approximately 6.6 million liters of gasoline. For every 100 trips made by urban residents nationwide, approximately 30 are made on two wheels. (Xinhua News Agency)

15:52:11

[Ministry of Commerce: A series of special documents will be issued to expand service consumption, including high-quality development of the accommodation industry and integrated development of railways and tourism] On September 17, Kong Dejun, Director of the Department of Trade in Services of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that according to preliminary statistics, relevant departments have currently issued more than 30 policies around the establishment of a "1+N" policy system for service consumption. Kong Dejun pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce will also issue a series of special documents, including high-quality development of the accommodation industry and integrated development of railways and tourism, to form a policy combination punch.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3652.74	8.47 (0.23%)
XAG	42.195	0.402 (0.96%)
CONC	63.04	-0.22 (-0.35%)
OILC	67.27	-0.19 (-0.28%)
USD	97.405	0.049 (0.05%)
EURUSD	1.1775	-0.0010 (-0.08%)
GBPUSD	1.3532	-0.0023 (-0.17%)
USDCNH	7.1103	0.0037 (0.05%)

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