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2026-07-17 Friday

2026-07-19

2026-07-16 Thursday

23:34:17

US 4-Week Treasury Auction on July 16 - Bid-to-cover Ratio (times)

Previous : 2.64 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.57

Previous

23:34:16

US 4-Week Treasury Auction - Winning Rate (July 16)

Previous : 3.63% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.66%

Previous

23:34:14

US 4-Week Treasury Auction on July 16 - Total Amount (USD Billion)

Previous : 1061.87 Forecast : -

Published Value 1164.47

Previous

23:34:13

US 4-Week Treasury Auction on July 16 - High Allocation Percentage

Previous : 26.29% Forecast : -

Published Value 44.46%

Previous

22:32:15

U.S. EIA implied natural gas flows (billion cubic feet) for the week ending July 6

Previous : 610 Forecast : -

Published Value 410

Previous

22:32:14

U.S. EIA natural gas storage changes (billion cubic feet) for the week ending July 6.

Previous : 610 Forecast : 430

Published Value 410

Previous

22:02:23

US June seasonally adjusted pending home sales index year-on-year

Previous : 2.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 2.30

Previous

22:02:21

US May Retail Inventories (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM) - Excluding Automotive Adjustments

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

22:02:19

US June Pending Home Sales Index (MoM)

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -0.50%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value -5.40%

Previous

22:02:18

US business inventories month-on-month in May

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : 0.30%

Neutral

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

22:02:16

US June seasonally adjusted pending home sales index

Previous : 76.80 Forecast : -

Published Value 72.50

Previous

22:02:15

US NAHB Housing Market Index, July

Previous : 35 Forecast : 35

Published Value 34

Previous

21:56:59

[US Diesel Returns to $5 Mark, Hormuz Standoff Pushes Up Energy Costs, Drivers and Logistics Under Pressure] ⑴ Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) shows that the average price of diesel in the US has once again exceeded $5 per gallon, while the average price of gasoline has also rebounded to nearly $4, essentially returning to the high point before the signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding in June, highlighting the continued transmission of geopolitical conflict to end-user energy costs. ⑵ A year ago, the average price of diesel was only $3.72, currently about $1.25 higher, significantly increasing cost pressure on the logistics and transportation industries. Truck drivers and supply chains reliant on road transport are directly impacted by rising fuel costs. ⑶ This week, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US immediately imposed a comprehensive blockade on Iranian ports. Both sides claim to be the guarantor of the security of this strategic waterway. Coupled with a new round of cross-border airstrikes, the international crude oil wholesale market has fluctuated significantly. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are hovering around $81 per barrel, although not reaching the peak levels of the previous conflict, the White House's erratic policy signals continue to put pressure on the market. (4) Trump briefly declared that the United States would take over the Strait and impose a 20% fee on goods passing through it, but the plan was quickly shelved due to opposition from all sides. Such capricious statements have further exacerbated the volatility of oil prices. The future trend of energy prices will depend on whether the military standoff between the United States and Iran escalates and whether the passage through the Strait can be restored.

21:32:12

[The Strait of Hormuz Stalemate Remains Unresolved, with the US and Iran Claiming Control, and the IMO Calling for De-escalation as a Priority] ⑴ The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz broke down just one month after its signing. Both sides claim control of the strait, and the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) stated that the current situation is highly volatile, and the risk to ship passage is too high without security guarantees from both sides. ⑵ Scholars at the Australian National University pointed out that the US cannot achieve peace through airstrikes alone and has been forced into an awkward stalemate with Iran. The risk of escalation of this conflict had been repeatedly warned of by numerous analysts months ago. ⑶ Last week, the US launched multiple airstrikes against Iranian radar, drone facilities, and naval bases. Iran retaliated with missile strikes against US bases in Jordan and Gulf states, and attacked ships attempting to exit the strait via routes near Oman, leaving hundreds of cargo ships stranded. ⑷ Trump briefly proposed a 20% protection fee for passing cargo ships, but quickly abandoned the proposal after strong opposition from allies and a stock market downturn. A retired US lieutenant general interpreted this as a common negotiating tactic used by the president, believing that Iran would only return to the negotiating table under sustained pressure. (5) The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emphasized that multilateralism is key to resolving disputes. The previous memorandum of understanding facilitated the evacuation of nearly 3,000 seafarers in late June. The next priority should be mine clearance and restoring passage. Military escort can only serve as a short-term supplementary means to rebuild confidence, not a long-term solution. (6) Regarding the ownership of the Straits of Hormuz, the IMO Secretary-General clarified that according to international law, Iran and Oman are littoral states of the Straits and enjoy administrative rights, not control rights. This difference in wording is the core of the current dispute and needs to be clarified through bilateral and multilateral dialogue. De-escalation of the conflict is a prerequisite for getting back on track.

21:02:13

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves (in billions of US dollars) for the week ending July 6.

Previous : 7217 Forecast : -

Published Value 7224

Previous

20:54:14

[Deutsche Bank Warns Balance Sheet Reduction Won't Support Dollar; Japan's Experience and Policy Conflicts Add Dual Pressure] ⑴ Deutsche Bank strategist Saravilos warns that if the Federal Reserve shifts its policy focus from raising interest rates to reducing its balance sheet to tighten monetary conditions, the dollar may actually weaken. This judgment contradicts market intuition but is based on empirical logic. ⑵ The Japanese experience provides a clear precedent. Although the Bank of Japan's pace of interest rate hikes was slow, it pushed forward quantitative tightening at a record speed, with a large amount of government bonds not being renewed upon maturity. However, the yen has remained deep in historical lows since 2012, proving that balance sheet reduction itself has extremely limited support for the exchange rate. ⑶ Saravilos believes that for balance sheet reduction to benefit the dollar, it must be accompanied by a substantial rise in short-term yields. Relying solely on the natural maturity of medium- and long-term bonds is insufficient to change the yield curve shape, let alone counteract the structural depreciation pressure brought about by the expansion of the fiscal deficit. ⑷ A more crucial contradiction lies in the fact that the Fed's balance sheet reduction process is likely to directly conflict with the Trump administration's policy goal of lowering long-term yields. The executive branch has clearly expressed its desire to maintain low interest rates, and the tension between central bank independence and fiscal demands may further amplify market uncertainty. (5) Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama even discussed using domestic savings to support the bond market, highlighting the blurring of the boundaries between the central bank and the treasury after quantitative tightening has become extreme. This signal should also be taken seriously by the Federal Reserve. (6) Overall, the choice of the pace of balance sheet reduction is not only a technical issue, but also involves a complex game of policy coordination and exchange rate feedback. If the Federal Reserve insists on pushing forward quantitative tightening while ignoring the coordination of short-term interest rates, the risk of a weakening dollar in the medium term should not be underestimated. The focus going forward will be on the degree of disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the combination of balance sheet reduction and interest rate hikes, and whether the connection between the Treasury's bond issuance pace and the central bank's operations is smooth.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4016.36

40.10

(1.01%)

XAG

55.884

0.395

(0.71%)

CONC

81.77

3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

88.08

3.22

(3.80%)

USD

100.759

0.039

(0.04%)

EURUSD

1.1438

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

1.3455

-0.0022

(-0.17%)

USDCNH

6.7769

0.0044

(0.06%)