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2025-09-17 Wednesday

2025-09-19

23:22:40

[Capital Economics: The neutral tone of the Bank of Canada's policy statement suggests the bank does not necessarily expect another rate cut in October] The Bank of Canada's rate cut was not surprising given recent weak labor market data and easing upside risks to inflation, but Stephen Brown of Capital Economics said that the neutral tone of the Bank of Canada's policy statement suggests the bank does not necessarily expect another rate cut in October. He said that it was crucial that the bank abandoned the wording in its previous policy statement that "a reduction in the policy rate may be necessary if economic weakness puts further downward pressure on inflation and upward price pressures from trade frictions are contained." However, the economist said that if economic growth remains weak as expected and core inflation pressures remain under control, there is still a possibility of another rate cut this year.

23:21:33

[Strategist: The Bank of Canada's decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% may not be dovish enough] Geoff Phipps, portfolio manager and trading strategist at Picton Investments in Toronto, said the Bank of Canada may not be dovish enough in its decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. The Bank of Canada has provided little forward guidance and removed dovish elements from its July statement. "If the economy continues to weaken - which looks more like the baseline expectation - the Bank of Canada may need to take a more dovish stance in the coming months," he said. Traders may expect the terminal interest rate to fall, but not to a level that would indicate a recession.

23:20:26

[Desjardins Bank: The Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again in October] The Bank of Canada resumed cutting interest rates after keeping interest rates unchanged this summer, but policymakers have not disclosed follow-up actions. Royce Mendes of Desjardins Bank pointed out that the bank's management committee only said that it would closely monitor changes in exports, business investment, employment and household spending, and pay attention to whether the costs of trade disruptions and supply chain restructuring are passed on to Canadian consumers. Mendes said: "The Bank of Canada still seems reluctant to think that all the effects of US trade policies are a thing of the past, especially in terms of inflation." However, Desjardins Bank's analysis shows that these concerns about inflation will not become a reality, so the bank still expects to cut interest rates again in October, and the policy rate will eventually fall to 2%.

23:18:01

Inflation Risks Make the Bank of Canada Cautious About Further Rate Cuts: Joe Brusuelas of the tax and consulting firm RSM stated that the Bank of Canada's decision not to provide forward guidance after resuming rate cuts provides the central bank with some flexibility regarding the path of monetary policy. The economist stated that the Bank of Canada specifically mentioned the potential inflation risks posed by global protectionism and tariffs, demonstrating its caution regarding future trends and the potential path of interest rates. RSM expects Canada to cut interest rates at least once more, as a weakening labor market and the potential for inflation to fall back to or below the central bank's 2% target provide the necessary policy space for action.

23:15:53

[European Commission Proposes Suspension of Some Trade Preferences for Israel] The European Commission announced on the 17th that it had submitted a proposal to the European Council to partially suspend the preferential trade provisions of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. The Commission stated that this measure is based on a compliance review of Article 2 of the agreement, which deals with human rights. The review concluded that the Israeli government's actions violate fundamental provisions regarding respect for human rights and democratic principles, giving the EU the right to unilaterally suspend the agreement.

23:14:34

Iran's Foreign Minister held a telephone conference with the foreign ministers of three European countries and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas.

23:13:51

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said there is still a long way to go before considering quantitative easing.

23:12:59

Ukrainian President Zelensky: Plan A for next year is to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Plan B is to raise $120 billion.

23:12:26

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: I also discussed with Indian Prime Minister Modi the progress of the ongoing trade negotiations and how we can work together to provide strong support to Ukraine's fight for freedom.

23:12:23

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: I look forward to visiting India again for our next summit.

23:03:18

[Cotton stabilizes after hitting a three-week high, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision] ICE cotton futures prices stabilized on Wednesday after hitting their highest point in more than three weeks, while traders awaited the widely expected U.S. interest rate cut later in the day. At 10:21 a.m. Eastern Time (14:21 GMT), the December CTZ5 cotton contract rose 0.07 cents, or 0.1%, to 67.75 cents per pound. Earlier in the session, the contract hit its highest level since August 25. Bailey Thomen, cotton risk management consultant at StoneX, said: "The market is mainly waiting for more guidance from the Federal Reserve to be announced later this afternoon. If the Fed does continue to cut interest rates, the market is waiting and digesting expectations of further increases."

23:02:07

[Bank of Montreal: The Bank of Canada is expected to be guided by data and may cut interest rates again] Douglas Porter of BMO Economics said that it is worth noting that the statement released by the Bank of Canada when announcing its much-anticipated rate cut did not include the language in the July statement that mentioned possible further easing of policy, which suggests that policymakers are reluctant to make subsequent rate cuts in October. However, the economist said that policy will evolve with the data, and further economic weakness may eventually prompt the bank to cut interest rates further. For now, the central bank continues to emphasize risks and uncertainties, and points out that it intends to focus on the short term more than before and to act cautiously. "The evolution of trade/tariffs and how it affects the economy, inflation and inflation expectations is key," Porter said.

22:58:42

German Chancellor Urges Public Preparation for Reforms: German Chancellor Angela Merz, in a speech to the Bundestag on the 17th, urged the public to prepare for reforms that are crucial to "Germany's future." The Bundestag held a general debate that day. In her speech, Merz stated that Germany needs to make major decisions, focusing on resolving "very fundamental issues," and that Germany must choose the right path. Merz urged the German people to have "greater confidence" in their country. Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that Merz urged the public to understand the necessary reforms, but did not elaborate on the specifics, including the public's concern about whether Germany's welfare system would be drastically altered.

22:57:23

Bank of Canada: Considering keeping overnight interest rate unchanged.

22:56:48

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said we are not as forward-looking as we usually are.

22:56:34

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said we will assess the impact of the government's announcement on targeted support and support for large projects.

22:56:17

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem said we do need to consider the direction of inflation; inflation pressures appear to be more controllable.

22:55:55

U.S. gasoline futures fell despite data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing an unexpected drop in gasoline inventories.

22:55:36

UK Public and Commercial Services Union: Employees at the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (OFGEM) have announced a week of strike action, escalating their dispute.

22:55:19

UK Public and Commercial Services Union: Members of the Public and Commercial Services Union at the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (OFGEM) offices in London, Glasgow and Cardiff will strike from September 29 to October 3.

22:55:00

Caroline Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada (central bank), said we are not considering any adjustments to deposit rates at this time.

22:38:05

Bank of America Survey: 59% of European Investors See Weak US Labor Market as Biggest Risk to Global Growth - Bank of America's September European Fund Manager Survey shows that 59% of European investors believe a weak US labor market is the biggest risk to global economic growth. The survey also showed that 33% of investors ranked US President Trump's policy mix as the second-biggest risk to global growth.

22:37:32

The Israeli stock market sell-off has continued into its sixth trading day, marking the longest losing streak in 18 months, as investors grow increasingly concerned about the economic impact of the Gaza conflict. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange 35 Index fell 1.8%, bringing the cumulative decline since September 9th to 4.3%. While stock investors continued to withdraw from the market this week, the Israeli shekel and US dollar bonds barely moved. The European Commission said in a statement on Wednesday that it had proposed suspending Israel's preferential trade treatment, which would mean that Israel would be subject to the same tariff rates as other countries that do not have trade agreements with the EU. In a speech earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged Israel's isolation and stressed the need to rely on its own strength to withstand potential sanctions.

22:37:09

BlackRock Makes Major Rebalance to $185 Billion Portfolio, Betting on US Stocks and AI. An investment outlook report indicates that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, is "upgrading its risk profile" by significantly increasing its holdings in US stocks and increasing its exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) within its $185 billion model portfolio platform. The outlook report notes that, driven by the US stock market's "top-tier earnings performance," BlackRock increased its allocation to US stocks across its model portfolios at the expense of international developed market stocks. Following the adjustments, these portfolios' overall equity holdings are 2% overweight. Data shows that on Tuesday, the day BlackRock completed its asset allocation adjustments, billions of dollars in flows occurred between its corresponding exchange-traded funds (ETFs). BlackRock's adjustments to its model portfolios are a vote of confidence in the US stock market's rally: the S&P 500 has reached record highs this year, driven by a surge in AI investment and market bets that the Federal Reserve is about to embark on a cycle of interest rate cuts. In an investment report, BlackRock said that the relatively strong earnings performance of US companies will drive US stocks to continue to rise, and pointed out that since the third quarter of 2024, US corporate profits have grown by 11%, while the earnings of similar companies in other developed markets have increased by less than 2%.

22:36:26

Russian President Vladimir Putin will extend counter-sanction measures, including restrictions on the import and export of certain products from the Russian Federation, until the end of 2027.

22:36:02

The EIA crude oil inventory decline in the United States in the week ending September 12 was the largest since the week ending June 13, 2025.

22:35:28

Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukraine and the United States are preparing for a presidential meeting next week.

22:34:31

Mexican President Seinbaum will discuss the USMCA, trade, and visas with Canadian Prime Minister Carney. Following the Carney meeting, he will meet with Canadian business leaders.

22:33:05

The total EIA crude oil output of the United States for the week ending September 12

Previous : 1349.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 1348.20

22:32:49

U.S. DOE distillate demand for the week ending September 12

Previous : 477.24 Forecast : -

Published Value 447.20

22:32:30

EIA refinery equipment utilization rate in the United States for the week ending September 12

Previous : 94.90% Forecast : 94.40%

Published Value 93.30%

22:32:26

U.S. DOE fuel ethanol inventories for the week ending September 12

Previous : 2283.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 2260.20

22:32:25

The total U.S. DOE fuel ethanol production for the week ending September 12

Previous : 110.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 105.50

22:32:22

U.S. DOE crude oil implied demand for the week ending September 12

Previous : 1920.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 2050

22:32:07

U.S. DOE gasoline implied demand for the week ending September 12

Previous : 950.17 Forecast : -

Published Value 978.23

22:30:09

U.S. EIA Weekly distillate production for the week ending September 12

Previous : -2.40 Forecast : -

Published Value -27.40

22:30:09

U.S. EIA weekly gasoline production for the week ending September 12

Previous : -28.50 Forecast : -

Published Value -18

22:30:08

U.S. EIA Weekly heating oil inventory for the week ending September 12

Previous : 26.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 67

22:30:08

U.S. EIA Weekly refined oil imports for the week ending September 12

Previous : 60.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -10.50

22:30:07

China's INE crude oil futures have just broken through the 500.0 yuan/barrel mark and are currently trading at 500.1 yuan/barrel, up 0.06% on the day.

22:30:07

EIA Oklahoma - Cushing crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12 in the United States

Previous : -36.50 Forecast : -

Published Value -29.60

22:30:07

U.S. EIA Weekly crude oil imports for the week ending September 12

Previous : 66.80 Forecast : -

Published Value -311.10

22:30:06

U.S. EIA weekly crude oil production for the week ending September 12

Previous : -5.10 Forecast : -

Published Value -39.40

22:30:06

Changes in U.S. EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending September 12

Previous : 145.80 Forecast : 6.80

Published Value -234.70

22:30:05

EIA Weekly new formula gasoline inventories for the week ending September 12 in the United States

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value -0.20

22:30:04

Changes in equipment utilization rates of U.S. EIA refineries for the week ending September 12

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -0.40%

Published Value -1.60%

22:30:03

The change in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 12

Previous : 393.90 Forecast : -85.70

Published Value -928.50

22:30:03

Changes in U.S. EIA distillate inventories for the week ending September 12

Previous : 471.50 Forecast : 97.50

Published Value 404.60

22:29:06

Societe Generale raises gold holdings to 10% cap as it prepares for the Fed's easing cycle Details>

22:16:13

The drumbeat of interest rate cut is about to sound. Will silver break through the line first or take a breath first? Details>

22:13:09

Silver Forecast: Fed anxiety disrupts silver market, testing key support levels Details>

22:08:18

The Canadian dollar continued its decline in early trading on Wednesday, hitting an intraday low of 1.3769 before paring losses after the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, as expected. At 9:48 a.m. New York time, after two days of gains, the Canadian dollar fell 0.15% to 1.3761. (Note: The Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate to 2.5%, and its policy statement omitted language suggesting further rate cuts might be needed.)

22:08:00

Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA): Sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil reached 50.06 million tons in late August.

22:07:59

Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA): Ethanol production in central and southern Brazil reached 2.42 billion liters in late August.

22:07:38

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announces presidential election schedule, campaign begins soon. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will hold its presidential election early next month. The party's presidential election committee announced the schedule on the 17th, detailing candidates' press conferences, policy discussions, and local speeches. With the countdown to the election announcement approaching, the campaign is set to officially begin next week. Following Prime Minister and LDP President Shigeru Ishiba's resignation on the 7th, the LDP announced it will announce the presidential election on September 22nd, with votes held on October 4th. The LDP presidential election committee held a meeting at party headquarters on the 17th to finalize the election schedule. According to this schedule, the committee will begin accepting candidate applications at 10:00 a.m. on the 22nd, with each candidate delivering their policy speeches starting at 1:00 p.m. On the morning of the 23rd, all candidates will hold a joint press conference at LDP headquarters and attend a public discussion hosted by the LDP Youth and Women's Bureaus in the afternoon. On the 24th, the candidates will participate in a discussion at the Japan Press Club. In addition, the candidate will hold local speeches in Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, and participate in a discussion on Internet policy on the 30th. (CCTV News)

22:07:15

Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA): In late August, the proportion of sugarcane used by Brazilian sugar mills for sugar production was 54.2%.

22:07:14

Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA): Sugar production in central and southern Brazil reached 3.872 million tons in late August

22:06:58

According to data from the New York Federal Reserve, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was at 4.39% on the previous trading day (September 16), compared to 4.51% the day before. The effective federal funds rate was at 4.33% on the previous trading day, compared to 4.33% the day before.

22:06:13

In the second quarter of 2025, Rwanda's GDP growth rate slowed to 7.8% year-on-year.

22:01:46

Is the global interest rate cut wave at a tipping point? The Bank of Canada is taking the lead, and the storm is coming! Details>

21:54:04

Is the Fed unable to save the economy? Has the yield curve long been "broken"? Are the economic signals all smoke and mirrors? Details>

21:49:51

Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points, Economy Faces Multiple Challenges ⑴ The Bank of Canada announced on Wednesday that it would lower its target overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, raising the bank rate to 2.75% and the deposit rate to 2.45%. This move reflects signs of slowing global economic growth, despite Canada's previous resilience in the face of US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty. ⑵ In the US, while business investment remained strong, consumer sentiment remained cautious, and job growth slowed. US inflation has recently rebounded, and businesses appear to be passing some of the tariff costs on to consumers. Meanwhile, Eurozone growth has moderated due to the impact of US tariffs on trade. China's economy performed solidly in the first half of the year, but growth appears to be slowing due to weakening investment. ⑶ Canada's GDP fell by approximately 1.5% in the second quarter, in line with expectations, primarily due to the heavy impact of tariffs and trade uncertainty on economic activity. Exports plummeted 27% in the second quarter, a sharp contrast to the first quarter's surge in businesses rushing to secure orders before tariffs took effect. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity, however, maintained healthy growth. However, slow population growth and a sluggish labor market are likely to weigh on household spending in the coming months. (4) Employment has declined over the past two months since the Bank of Canada's July Monetary Policy Report was released. The unemployment rate has risen since March, reaching 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to slow. Headline inflation (CPI) was 1.9% in August, unchanged from July. Excluding tax factors, inflation was 2.4%. Core inflation has remained around 3% in recent months, but monthly upward momentum has weakened. (5) Given the weakening economy and diminishing upside risks to inflation, the Bank of Canada believes a lower policy rate is necessary to better balance risks. Going forward, disruptive impacts from trade fluctuations will continue to increase costs while weighing on economic activity. The Bank of Canada will proceed cautiously, closely monitoring risks and uncertainties. The Bank will assess how exports evolve in the face of US tariffs and evolving trade relations; how the cost effects of trade shocks are being transmitted to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. The Bank of Canada will work to ensure public confidence in price stability and support economic growth during this period of global uncertainty, while ensuring that inflation remains well under control.

21:49:19

On September 17, the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada kept its overnight lending rate unchanged at 2.50%, in line with expectations. The Canadian dollar fluctuated slightly against the US dollar from 1.3763 (0.19%) to a high of 1.3767, and is currently trading at 1.3758 (0.15%).

21:46:42

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: will continue to support economic growth while ensuring inflation is effectively controlled

21:46:40

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Ottawa's removal of tariffs on US imports will reduce upward pressure on prices of these goods

21:46:38

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Broader indicators continue to point to underlying inflation around 2.5%

21:46:37

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Slow population growth and a weak labor market are likely to put pressure on household spending in the coming months

21:46:34

Baltic Index nears two-month high as capesizes rally Details>

21:46:24

The Fed's September meeting is imminent, with the market focusing on the dot plot and policy path. ⑴ The Federal Reserve will release its September monetary policy decision and a summary of its latest economic projections (dot plot) at 2:00 AM on Thursday. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to cut its policy rate for the first time since December, lowering it to a range of 4%-4.25%. ⑶ The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors are pricing in only a roughly 6% probability of a larger rate cut, and predict a cumulative 75 basis points of cuts at the remaining meetings this year. ⑷ This means the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each meeting before the end of the year. ⑸ The June dot plot shows that policymakers anticipate a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027. ⑹ Of the 19 officials, 7 project no rate cuts in 2025, 2 predict one, 8 predict two, and 2 predict three. 7. The new dot plot may show significant changes: Disappointing employment data and relatively stable inflation readings have prompted investors to shift to a more dovish outlook. 8. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged on August 22nd the rising downside risks to the labor market and predicted that the inflationary effects of tariffs would be short-lived. 9. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%. The preliminary benchmark revision suggests that total nonfarm payrolls in March 2025 will be 911,000 lower than initially estimated. 10. Analysts at TD Securities stated: "Given the recent weak labor force report, forward guidance is likely to lean dovish, but inflation overshoot remains a key risk." 11. Political factors may also influence the dot plot: Senate Republicans confirmed White House economic advisor Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board on Monday. 12. Milan is seen as a dovish voice who may support a 50 basis point rate cut and will vote at this meeting.

21:46:18

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: On a monthly basis, the upward momentum in core inflation that emerged earlier this year has dissipated

21:46:14

Bank of Canada rate decision: Disruptions from trade diversion will continue to increase costs, even as they weigh on economic uncertainty

21:46:04

Bank of Canada interest rate decision: Given the weak economy and reduced upside risks to inflation, a rate cut is appropriate

21:45:02

The overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada in September

Previous : 2.75% Forecast : 2.50%

Neutral

Published Value 2.50%

21:42:02

[Mt. Chip Technology Co., Ltd. promotes vertical integration of optical communication chips] ⑴ Mt. Chip Technology Co., Ltd. announced that it has formed a vertical integration layout of "optical chips-optical devices-optical modules" in the field of optical communications. ⑵ The company plans to leverage its advantages in vertical integration of the industry chain to promote independent supply of optical communication chips in a step-by-step manner. ⑶ Currently, the 2.5G DFB laser chip has started tape-out, and mass production is expected within 2025. ⑷ The epitaxial growth work of 10G and 25G DFB laser chips has started. ⑸ 50G DFB and CW DFB chips are expected to be launched in 2026. ⑹ The company is actively conducting research and development of silicon-based photonics and PIC technologies. ⑺ The goal is to build solutions for co-packaged optical architectures. ⑻ Provide core support for 800G/1.6T ultra-high-speed interconnection.

21:40:32

September 17 US market update support and resistance: 18 varieties of support and resistance (gold, silver, platinum, palladium, crude oil, natural gas, copper and ten major currency pairs) Details>

21:40:31

[Expectations of increased Brazilian supply weigh on raw sugar futures prices] ⑴ New York raw sugar futures prices fell due to expectations of increased supply from Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, and concerns about weak demand in Indonesia. ⑵ Analysts believe that Brazil's raw sugar production in the second half of August may reach as high as 3.95 million tons, exceeding the industry association's forecast for the first half of August. ⑶ This production level will help increase inventories. ⑷ By September 30, Brazilian raw sugar inventories may climb to 11.6 million tons from 9.4 million tons at the end of August. ⑸ Analysts note that the rising inventory trend will "continue to put pressure on the market." ⑹ However, refineries in the Middle East and Africa have begun purchasing Brazilian raw sugar, indicating initial signs of demand recovery in some regions.

21:39:01

Canada's July Foreign Inflows Hit a 10-Month High of $26.7 Billion: (1) Foreign investors increased their holdings of Canadian securities by $26.7 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's revised $1 billion, marking the highest net investment since September 2024. (2) A net increase of $14.8 billion in debt securities drove the overall increase, with money market instruments accounting for $11.1 billion as the Bank of Canada held its key interest rate unchanged. (3) Net bond holdings increased by $3.7 billion, while holdings of Canadian corporate equities rose by $11.8 billion during the same period. (4) The increase in foreign holdings coincided with the Toronto benchmark index reaching a record high that month. (5) Canadian investors increased their holdings of foreign financial assets by $17.4 billion during the same period.

21:38:38

US stocks saw mixed gains and losses on Wednesday as the market awaited the FOMC decision. ⑴ US stocks saw mixed performance on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading virtually flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 200 points. ⑵ Traders avoided large bets ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision, with the market generally expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. ⑶ Investors focused on dissenting votes, signs of policy divergence, and the updated dot plot for clues to the future policy path. ⑷ Data showed that US housing starts and building permits both fell short of expectations. ⑸ Utilities and consumer staples led the market higher, while consumer discretionary sectors lagged.

21:36:30

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 46,000.00 mark and was last at 46,001.02, up 0.53% on the day.

21:35:21

Capesizes Led Strong Gains, Dry Bulk Index Approaches Two-Month High] ⑴ As of Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index (.BADI) had risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, primarily driven by rising capesize freight rates, approaching a two-month high. The index (.BADI) rose 26 points, or 1.2%, to 2,180 points, reaching its highest point since July 28. ⑵ The Capesize Index (.BACI) performed particularly well, rising 111 points, or 3.5%, to 3,300 points, its highest level since August 14. Average daily earnings for Capesize vessels, which typically carry 150,000-ton bulk cargoes such as iron ore and coal, increased by $923 to $27,366. ⑶ Meanwhile, the Panamax Index (.BPNI) fell for the third consecutive trading day, dropping 45 points, or 2.3%, to 1,923 points, its lowest point since September 8. Average daily earnings for Panamax vessels, which typically carry 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of coal or grain, fell by $404 to $17,308. Regarding smaller vessels, the Supramax Index (.BSIS) edged up 1 point to 1,492. Iron ore futures prices edged lower in the main trading markets on Wednesday, driven by increased shipments from major producer Brazil and a cautious outlook for steel demand.

21:34:50

Spot gold just broke through the $3,680.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,680.04/ounce, down 0.26% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,715.80/ounce, down 0.25% on the day.

21:33:21

[Gold Dip-Buying Surge: Market Betting on an Eventually Dovish Fed Shift] ⑴ The gold market has recently demonstrated strong dip-buying momentum, with active positioning even before the Fed's interest rate decision. Data shows that in the hours leading up to the Fed's decision, gold prices quickly pared a $38 decline, ultimately falling by only $12, demonstrating strong market buying interest, regardless of Fed Chairman Powell's comments. ⑵ Market participants generally expect that, even if the Fed's current stance is not explicitly dovish, its monetary policy may shift to a more accommodative, or even significantly more dovish, approach. This expectation stems in part from expectations that US President Trump will lower interest rates and his willingness to employ unconventional measures to achieve this goal. ⑶ Meanwhile, continued global geopolitical volatility and intensified trade frictions have also provided support for gold. The fragmentation of the global order caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the impact of the US-initiated trade war on globalization have exposed new risks. In the current complex international environment, these factors are favorable for gold assets, prompting investors to allocate to it as a safe-haven asset.

21:33:09

Natural Gas Futures Soar! Heatwave Warnings Can't Beat the "Negative Price" Phenomenon. ⑴ U.S. natural gas futures prices rose about 2% on Wednesday (Beijing Time), hitting an eight-week high. This was primarily due to recent declines in daily production and higher-than-predicted demand expectations for the next two weeks. The current month natural gas futures contract rose 4.52 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.148 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), on track for its highest closing price since July 22. ⑵ Meanwhile, in the spot market, natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian shale play of West Texas fell into negative territory for the second time this week. This is due to pipeline maintenance, such as that on Kinder Morgan's El Paso pipeline from Texas to California, which has left natural gas stranded in the nation's largest oil-producing basin. This is the seventh time this year that Waha prices have fallen below zero, significantly lower than the average levels of $1.64 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the past five years (2019-2023). Notably, the Waha price first fell below zero in 2019, with 17 such occurrences that year, six in 2020, one in 2023, and a record 49 in 2024. (3) On the supply side, natural gas production in the lower 48 states has fallen to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far this month, down from a record 108.3 Bcf/d in August. Wednesday's daily production is expected to fall to a two-month low of 106 Bcf/d, primarily due to pipeline maintenance in Texas, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania, among other factors. Nevertheless, this decline is smaller than expected on Tuesday. Record production earlier this year allowed energy companies to pump more natural gas into storage than usual. The amount of natural gas currently in storage is approximately 6% higher than at this time of year, and this proportion is expected to continue to grow in the coming weeks. (4) Weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain above normal until at least October 2nd. However, this late-season "heat wave" is unlikely to significantly increase natural gas demand, as it will likely reduce the typical increase in heating demand during this period rather than significantly increase the amount of natural gas burned by power plants to power air conditioning. The agency forecasts that daily natural gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, will increase from 102.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 103.4 billion cubic feet per day next week, higher than expected the previous day. Furthermore, daily natural gas deliveries from major U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals fell to 15.7 billion cubic feet per day this month, down from 15.8 billion cubic feet in August. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's Cove Point LNG plant in Maryland is also scheduled to shut down soon for approximately a month of annual fall maintenance.

21:30:47

There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but is there a bigger bomb on the way? Details>

21:30:40

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 45,900.00 mark and was last at 45,907.25, up 0.33% on the day.

21:28:48

[Nokia establishes new artificial intelligence department with former Intel executive at the helm] ⑴ On Wednesday, Nokia officially announced the establishment of a new artificial intelligence department and hired former Intel executive Pallavi Mahajan as the head of the department. This move is aimed at cooperating with the company's strategic transformation promoted by the new CEO Justin Hotard. ⑵ The newly established department is named "Technology and Artificial Intelligence Organization" and will integrate the business of Nokia's well-known R&D center-Nokia Bell Labs (Nokia Bell Labs, which has long focused on technology research and development at the intersection of communications and AI). It is reported that Mahajan previously served as vice president and general manager of Intel's data center and artificial intelligence business unit, and Hotard also worked in the department. He officially took over as Nokia CEO in April this year.

21:20:14

[Federal Reserve Hawk vs. Dove Contest: Three Dissenting Votes Could Trigger a Dot Plot Seismic Change] ⑴ LHMeyer's tracking report indicates that the Fed's "dot plot" released this week will, for the first time, include the position of hawkish official Milan. The market may see a picture of a "25 basis point rate cut on the surface, but three dissenting votes hidden." ⑵ Kevin Burgett, an analyst at the firm, bluntly stated that Milan is "almost certain" to vote against the rate cut. While the dot plot conceals his name, it may reveal his preference for a "larger rate cut," directly lowering the median. ⑶ Fed Governors Bowman and Waller have also been named as potential "defections," forming a rare three-way dovish alliance. Notably, Waller previously supported only 25 basis points, before the unexpected August non-farm payroll figures and the preliminary QCEW figures revealed a weaker labor market. This new data may prompt a shift in her stance. ⑷ If the dot plot shifts downward as a result, market bets on additional rate cuts this year will suddenly intensify, potentially leading to a sharp drop in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, and gold prices could take advantage of this momentum to break through their recent range.

21:17:29

[Natural gas prices plummet? Major players lower their Q4 forecasts, raising questions about supply and demand] ⑴ The agency significantly lowered its Q4 2025 natural gas price forecast to $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This move is primarily due to high inventories, and prices could fall further if tropical activity impacts natural gas demand along the Gulf Coast. ⑵ Despite downward pressure, the agency maintains its 2026 natural gas price forecast at $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), driven by strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand. However, if natural gas production growth exceeds expectations in early winter, this could drag down prices in 2026. ⑶ Prices in the West Texas (WAHA) region are under pressure, and limited connectivity is expected to keep prices in the Southeast at a premium until new pipelines come online in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, ample spare capacity is expected to suppress prices in the ERCOT region from 2026 to 2027. ⑷ The continued growth of solar and battery storage capacity, in line with load growth, is also impacting the supply and demand balance in the natural gas market to a certain extent, introducing new variables.

21:00:16

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,370.00/oz mark and was last trading at $1,370.65/oz, down 1.88% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,376.3/oz, down 1.87% on the day.

20:59:16

[Canadian Crop Production Forecast: Multiple Growth Rates Expected] ⑴ Institutional data show that Canada's total wheat production is expected to reach 36.624 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.9% over 2024. Among them, the production of durum wheat used for making pasta is expected to be 6.535 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. ⑵ Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20.028 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, showing strong growth momentum. ⑶ In addition, oat production is expected to increase slightly by 0.4% to 3.370 million tons, while barley production is expected to increase by 1.0% to 8.228 million tons. ⑷ Statistics Canada's production estimates are based on satellite data, historical survey estimates, and agricultural climate data. Some parts of the western region have sufficient precipitation and crop yields are above average, while drier areas are below historical averages. The eastern region has been dry throughout the growing season. ⑸ The statistical methods for this yield forecast vary among provinces. The five western provinces mainly rely on modeled yield estimates, while the eastern provinces' estimates use the July forecast data for major crop production.

20:54:54

[Caixin Futures: Agricultural products sector generally under pressure, oil prices surged but then retreated] ⑴ US soybean oil saw five consecutive days of gains overnight, but gains were quickly reversed in electronic trading during Beijing time. Domestic oil prices collectively surged but then retreated, with rapeseed oil falling below the 10,000 yuan mark. ⑵ Soybean oil and palm oil saw declines as positions were reduced. The EPA's proposal to transfer exemptions for small refineries to large ones remains uncertain, prolonging the biofuel policy debate. ⑶ Post-holiday crude palm oil prices rebounded amidst a decline in crude oil prices, narrowing intraday gains. Guangzhou 24-degree spot prices fell 30 yuan to 9,380 yuan. ⑷ Sluggish stocking during the two holidays weakened the upward momentum of palm oil prices. Technically, the 9,330-9,400 yuan range provides support, and long positions can be entered after a pullback and stabilization. ⑸ Soybean supply is not a major issue in the fourth quarter, but a gap may exist in the first quarter of next year, supporting the premium trend for the deferred month. ⑹ Soybean meal prices weakened as auctioned soybean reserves entered the crushing market, and progress in tariff and trade negotiations affected short-term sentiment. 7. Future market trends require careful attention to policy releases and the volume of reserve soybean auctions. Short-term momentum is insufficient, so a wait-and-see approach is recommended. 8. Speculative sentiment is high for new-season corn. North Port inventories are lower year-over-year, while Northeast China corn opening prices have increased year-over-year. 9. New-season spring corn is expected to see a brief period of strength before weakening, so a small position can be considered for short-term trading. 10. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continues to hold symposiums with pig producers to discuss capacity control measures, which is bullish for pig prices in the long-term. 11. Increasing supply remains the primary concern. Next week, downstream companies may begin stocking up for the two major holidays, which may temporarily support pig prices. 12. Egg holdings are significantly higher than during the same period, but have recently shown a downward trend. Spot prices saw significant gains before the holiday, but futures rebounded only slightly. With continued long-term supply increases, a bearish outlook is maintained.

20:53:45

At 03:00 am Beijing time on the 18th, during the press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, US President Trump will be interviewed by Fox News in the UK and may comment on the Fed's actions at that time.

20:53:44

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Trends Diverge, Geopolitical Factors Support Oil Prices] ⑴ Geopolitical factors have recently driven volatility in the crude oil market, with Ukrainian drones attacking Russian oil pipelines and refineries, and Trump threatening new economic sanctions against Russia. ⑵ As the situation in Russia, Europe, and the Middle East continues to complicate, geopolitical sentiment premiums persist. We expect limited downside for crude oil, with a volatile and positive trend. ⑶ The US has imposed sanctions on some terminal and storage operators, leading to a strong fuel oil spread. We do not recommend an overly bearish outlook. ⑷ Today's spot price of float glass is 1,164 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month-on-month. Overall, companies in the Shahe area are experiencing strong shipments. ⑸ The spread of anti-involutionary news has led to a fluctuating upward trend in the market. Considering the seasonal improvement in glass demand in September and October, it is advisable to buy on dips. ⑹ Short-term, exit the market in the 1,250-1,270 resistance zone; short-term long positions are recommended. ⑺ The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with prices firming. Some companies have seen narrow price increases, with the spot-futures basis reported at 01-110 in Hebei Kuti. ⑻ Although the long-term outlook is weak, the downstream glass market is currently strong, and upstream coal costs have stabilized, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. ⑼ Exit the 1350-1360 pressure zone promptly, as the resurgence of anti-involutionary sentiment provides support. ⑽ Liquid caustic soda sales in Shandong Province are sluggish, leading to accumulated inventories at companies. Some companies have lowered their prices by 20 yuan, and prices in major producing areas are stable but weakening. ⑾ Considering the expectation of continued inventory replenishment before the National Day holiday at the end of the month and the continued high production of downstream alumina, we are optimistic about the trend of caustic soda. ⑿ The spot price of methanol in Taicang is 2282 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month-on-month. Port inventory pressure continues to increase slightly, and the market is fluctuating widely.

20:52:34

[Caixin Futures: Commodity Markets Diverge Ahead of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision] ⑴ The Federal Reserve will announce its September interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing Time. The market is already pricing in a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. ⑵ The more important factor in the game lies in the "dot plot." The outcome of the meeting will likely not change the rate cut narrative or the outlook for rate cut trading, but there will be short-term fluctuations. ⑶ Gold's trend will depend on the wording of the statement. A dovish statement will result in a smaller and shorter-term correction, while a hawkish statement will have a larger negative impact on gold. ⑷ Alumina prices rose in the evening session due to anti-involutionary sentiment but retreated from highs. Fundamentals maintain an oversupply situation, and weekly operating capacity has rebounded again. ⑸ Alumina inventories and warehouse receipts continue to increase. The import window has opened, and import expectations are increasing. The overall trend is weak, so shorting on rallies is recommended. ⑹ For Shanghai aluminum, the market is closely watching the Fed's decision, wary of the risk of a lower-than-expected rate cut, while expectations for the golden September and October peak season remain. 7. The continued increase in LME Asian warehouse withdrawals has heightened supply-side concerns, but inventory accumulation has been modest this week, with destocking falling short of expectations. 8. Aluminum prices remain volatile, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. The timing of the destocking inflection point remains to be seen. 9. Scrap aluminum shortages are intensifying in the cast aluminum alloy market, with panic buying driving prices higher. While the traditional peak season is approaching, quality remains to be determined. 10. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, cast aluminum alloys are expected to maintain a relatively strong performance, with a primary strategy of buying on dips. 11. Lithium carbonate's rebound continues, driven by anti-involutionary sentiment and downstream stockpiling efforts. Prices remain supported amidst the peak demand season. 12. The results of Yichun mining companies' "self-inspections" remain pending, raising uncertainty on the supply side. We recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach and be wary of the risk of news disruptions on the supply side.

20:51:23

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Pre-Holiday Inventory Replenishment Expectations Support Prices] ⑴ The weak performance of rebar is improving slightly as demand continues to unleash, while flat steel demand remains resilient. In the short term, steel prices remain strongly supported by improving macroeconomic expectations and pre-holiday inventory replenishment. ⑵ The pre-holiday market may fluctuate depending on the extent of inventory replenishment. The reference range for the rebar 01 contract is 3135-3192. In terms of funding, the top 20 positions are primarily bullish and bearish, with a slight increase in short positions. ⑶ Hot-rolled coil 01 contract open interest has remained stable, exhibiting an overall volatile pattern. ⑷ Brazilian shipments have returned to normal, global iron ore shipments remain high, hot metal production is also high, and port inventories remain slightly fluctuating. ⑸ The current situation of iron ore remains relatively stable, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment expectations still provide significant support. In the short term, we should pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan. In the medium term, we should focus on the realization of weak expectations amidst the decline in hot metal production. ⑹ The strategy recommends a 1-5 positive arbitrage for iron ore. 7. Coking coal production has contracted in some regions due to strict crackdowns on overproduction. Coking companies have begun restocking before the National Day holiday, increasing procurement activity among intermediaries. 8. The increase in mines offering price increases at auctions and improved contract signings at pithead mines have intensified the upward momentum in spot prices, maintaining a premium. 9. Funding: Long positions in the top 20 seats of the 2601 coking coal contract decreased slightly, while short positions increased slightly. Position changes are slightly bearish. The strategy recommends maintaining a light, short-term long position on pullbacks. 10. Coke demand remains strong due to high molten iron production. Furthermore, coking companies have already begun restocking raw materials before the holiday, strengthening cost support. 11. Further price increases and decreases in spot prices are becoming increasingly difficult, and market expectations for stabilization are increasing. However, market valuations are already high, so chasing the upward trend is not advisable. The strategy recommends long coal and short coke. ⑿ In terms of manganese silicon, the shipment of manganese ore remains stable, the production of manufacturers continues to recover, the factory inventory has increased slightly, and the expectation of declining demand still exists. The upward drive itself is insufficient, and it may follow the fluctuation of raw materials. In terms of funds, the top 20 positions mainly reduce their positions, and long positions reduce more. The overall trend is cautious, and low-level fluctuations are expected.

20:46:02

[US Housing Market Alert: Declining Mortgages, Falling Construction Starts, Fed Rate Cuts Fail to Resolve Inventory Dilemma] ⑴ US single-family home construction starts plummeted 7.0% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 890,000 units. Meanwhile, building permits, a proxy for future construction, also fell 2.2% to 856,000 units. ⑵ Although the 30-year mortgage rate has fallen from 7.04% in mid-January to 6.35% last week, an 11-month low, a weak job market and a high inventory of unsold new homes continue to weigh heavily on construction activity. ⑶ Institutional data shows that new home inventory levels are approaching their late-2007 peak. Builders are continuing to reduce inventory pressures through price cuts and promotions. A National Association of Home Builders survey on Tuesday showed that industry confidence remains subdued. ⑷ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday to support the labor market. However, uncertainty about the economic outlook has stalled hiring, and weak job growth may mitigate the impact of the rate cut on the housing market. 5. The Federal Reserve paused its interest rate cuts in January due to inflation uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff remarks. Now it has restarted its easing policy, but the positive impact of falling mortgage rates may be offset by the weakness of the labor market.

20:42:08

[The Ukrainian attack hit Russian crude oil exports hard, with the weekly decline setting a record for the year] ⑴ The Ukrainian drone attack on key Russian facilities led to a significant decline in cargo volumes at Baltic ports. As of the week of September 14, Russia's average daily offshore crude oil exports plummeted to 3.18 million barrels, a significant decrease of 934,000 barrels from the previous week. ⑵ The decline was the largest single-week drop since July last year, highlighting the immediate impact of geopolitical risks on energy supply. ⑶ The four-week average export volume, which has less volatility, still rose slightly to 3.46 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the revised value of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week, mainly due to the large export volume of Urals crude oil through the Black Sea and Baltic ports in the previous week. ⑷ The continued recovery of the four-week average data shows that the potential export trend has not yet undergone a fundamental reversal, but short-term fluctuations have had a significant impact on the market supply pattern.

20:38:55

[Non-farm payrolls surprise, pound soars! Markets surge ahead of the Fed decision!] ⑴ GBP/USD hovered near the key option expiration level of 1.3650 on the eve of the Fed's interest rate decision. This level coincides with the middle of the currency pair's price range over the past 24 hours. The Bank of England will announce Thursday at 11:00 GMT (19:00 Beijing Time) that it will reduce its quantitative tightening (QT) program and maintain interest rates. The previously released UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) annualized rate was in line with expectations at 3.8%. ⑵ The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at 02:00 Beijing Time the following day, followed by Powell's press conference at 18:30 GMT (02:30 Beijing Time). If the Fed adopts an ultra-dovish rate cut, it could put pressure on the US dollar and push GBP/USD higher, potentially towards 1.37. ⑶ It is worth noting that US President Trump's administration has previously announced tariffs, which may have sparked market concerns. Meanwhile, institutional reports indicate that copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to a one-week low on Wednesday (September 17th, Beijing time), with the benchmark three-month copper contract down 1.6% to $9,963 per ton. China's copper production rose 15% year-on-year in August. Aluminum prices fell 1.3% to $2,683 per ton. Other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, and nickel also saw declines. In the commodity market, ICE Arabica coffee futures fell sharply by 4.1% to $3.9245 per pound on Wednesday (September 17th, Beijing time), retreating from a near seven-month high of $4.24 reached the previous day. Traders believe the price correction is not surprising given the recent significant price increases. Meanwhile, sugar production in Brazil's central and southern regions is expected to rise 17.3% year-on-year to 3.8 million tons in the second half of August. Cocoa prices in London fell slightly by 0.04% to £5,088 per ton, with the market focused on the development of the main season crops in West Africa.

20:36:05

Copper Prices Under Pressure Await the Federal Reserve's Decision (1) Copper prices fell to a one-week low on Wednesday, primarily due to traders cutting positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision. Meanwhile, recent copper price increases in China, the largest metals consumer, have dampened demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.6% to $9,963 per ton on Wednesday Shanghai time, but remained above its 21-day moving average of $9,910, which supports prices. Just on Monday, the metal hit a 15-month high of $10,192.50. (2) Analysts noted that the copper market's lackluster performance this week, with a lack of systematic buying and even a reversal of the mean sell signal, exacerbated overall market weakness. (3) Market participants are closely watching the Fed's statements, not only regarding the expected rate cut, but more importantly, regarding future policy direction. Given the dollar's roughly 10% decline this year and weak labor market data, traders are looking for signals as to whether this rate cut will be the first of a series. ⑷ In addition to copper, LME aluminum prices fell 1.3% on Wednesday to $2,683 per ton. On Tuesday, aluminum prices hit a six-month high of $2,720. On that day, the premium of spot aluminum to three-month aluminum reached $16, the highest since March. This shows that in the current settlement week, the LME aluminum market is in short supply and short position holders have to reduce or extend their contracts. The "tomorrow delivery, the day after tomorrow delivery" spread of aluminum fell to zero on Wednesday, compared with $13 on Tuesday. Data shows that among the total LME September aluminum futures positions, one long position holds more than 40% of the positions.

20:34:20

The Extent of the Rate Cut Becomes Market Focus: 25 or 50 Basis Points, Two Contradictory Opinions. (1) TA Securities analysis indicates that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as planned, the market may see a "buy the forecast, sell the reality" scenario, as investors have already widely priced in this expectation. This rate cut will be seen as a prudent "insurance" measure aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling economic distress. Against this backdrop, consumer staples, healthcare, and technology stocks, which benefit from low borrowing costs and have defensive or long-term growth potential, are expected to outperform. However, financial stocks may face earnings pressure due to narrowing net interest margins and may underperform the broader market. (2) TA Securities further analyzes that if the Fed suddenly cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may initially boost interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities. However, this move could also exacerbate market concerns about the extent of economic weakness, suggesting that the Fed's outlook may be more pessimistic than the market anticipates. This shift in expectations from a "soft landing" to a "hard landing" is likely to dampen market sentiment and trigger a sharper correction, especially in cyclical sectors such as energy and industrials. Even the technology sector may face valuation pressure unless its profitability demonstrates strong resilience.

18

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3652.74	8.47 (0.23%)
XAG	42.195	0.402 (0.96%)
CONC	63.04	-0.22 (-0.35%)
OILC	67.27	-0.19 (-0.28%)
USD	97.405	0.049 (0.05%)
EURUSD	1.1775	-0.0010 (-0.08%)
GBPUSD	1.3532	-0.0023 (-0.17%)
USDCNH	7.1103	0.0037 (0.05%)

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