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2026-09-18 Friday

2026-09-22

18:01:35

[Record-High US Diesel Prices Pressure Farmers, Potentially Leading to Rising Food Prices] ⑴ US farmers are facing record diesel prices during the harvest season, further squeezing profit margins. Rising grocery prices ahead of the November midterm elections seem inevitable. ⑵ Global fuel supplies have tightened due to the US-Israel war against Iran and Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries. The average US diesel price hit a new high this week at approximately $6.29 per gallon, up about 68% from a year ago. ⑶ Economists at Michigan State University stated that rising diesel prices are pushing up costs across the food supply chain, as most food is transported by truck, which uses diesel. ⑷ The latest Consumer Price Index shows that consumer food prices rose about 2.7% year-over-year in August. ⑸ Farmers can use tax-free off-road diesel, but even with discounts, many farmers are still paying significantly higher fuel costs than last year. ⑹ A vegetable grower in California stated that fuel costs have risen by about 40%, from about $5 to about $7 per gallon. To save money, he has restarted a 1950s gasoline tractor and retired a diesel pickup truck. (7) Data from Purdue University economists shows that fuel costs for corn planting have increased by about $11 per acre compared to last year, and for soybeans by about $7 per acre. (8) Corn, soybean, and wheat futures have risen sharply since mid-August, reaching multi-year highs in early September, but farmer profit margins remain below historical averages. Some economists warn that high oil prices could push up seed and fertilizer costs next year. (9) A hay farmer in Washington state said that farmers have tightened their belts and have little room to absorb rising fuel prices; any increase at present means new debt for farms. (10) A Republican senator from Kansas wrote to the Secretary of Agriculture requesting temporary relief for farmers. The Department of Agriculture stated that it is working tirelessly to address the issue and will release more information in the coming weeks. (11) Economists point out that although fuel accounts for only a small portion of food costs, consumers may still see price increases as the supply chain absorbs higher fuel costs. The most vulnerable are agricultural products requiring refrigerated transport, dairy products, and meat. 12. Data shows that refrigerated trailer rates for apples and pears in Yakima Valley, Washington, have hit a four-year high. Agricultural transportation costs in California have increased by about 40% to 120% compared to last year, and diesel prices in some cities have exceeded $8 per gallon. Industry insiders expect that diesel-driven trucking companies will go bankrupt.

17:56:33

[Austrian Unions Criticize Declining Real Wages, Call for Pay Raises and Training] ⑴ The head of the Austrian Transport and Services Union (vida) stated that they will strive for a decent collective bargaining agreement in the autumn wage negotiations, criticizing the decline in real wages since 2019. ⑵ From July 2019 to July 2026, real wages are expected to decline by approximately 1%, with the catering and accommodation sector and manufacturing sector seeing declines of approximately 3% and 2% respectively. ⑶ This autumn, the union will begin collective bargaining wage negotiations with the Austrian Federal Chamber of Economic Affairs for sectors including public transport, railways, retail, freight, cleaning, and private security. ⑷ The union is demanding substantial wage increases, citing high workloads and staffing needs in these sectors. Autumn negotiations will begin in October. ⑸ Due to a two-year crisis agreement reached by social partners last year, the metals industry will not participate in the autumn negotiations this year. ⑹ The rolling inflation rate over the past 12 months has exceeded 3%, driven by rising service and energy prices; the collective bargaining increase in the retail sector over the past two years has not kept pace with inflation. (7) Union leaders criticized the crisis agreement for not making food cheaper, but rather worsening the situation for workers, and called for a positive outlook on the domestic economy, stating that higher wages are the fuel the economy needs. (8) The Austrian National Bank recently predicted that real economic growth this year would be around 0.5%, with an inflation rate of around 3%. (9) Union leaders believe that the crisis narrative presented by business representatives has damaged the country's business position; only some Austrian industries are in crisis, while many sectors such as tourism and transportation are thriving. (10) Regarding vocational training, data from public employment services shows that at the end of August, approximately 11,600 apprentices were available for immediate employment, while there were only about 6,300 vacant apprenticeship positions. (11) Union leaders criticized the existence of training strikes in the business sector, noting that many companies are increasingly relying on seasonal foreign workers and those with "red, white, and red cards" (traditional Austrian visas) from third countries rather than training their own skilled workers. 12 He also pointed out that about 46 million hours of overtime and extra working hours last year were not compensated with economic or time off in lieu, and employees estimated that they lost about 2.5 billion euros in gross wages, while the country lost about 1.2 billion euros in tax revenue and social security contributions. He called for the enactment of a criminal law against labor crimes.

17:53:06

[Vietnam's Agricultural Exports Sprint Towards Annual Target, Pressure High in the Last Four Months] ⑴ Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment stated that the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors need to significantly accelerate exports in the last four months of 2026 to achieve the annual target of approximately US$74 billion. ⑵ Exports in the first eight months totaled approximately US$49.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 7%. Approximately US$24.9 billion needs to be achieved in the remaining four months, averaging about US$6.2 billion per month. ⑶ The Deputy Director of the Planning and Finance Department stated that current results have laid the foundation for achieving the target, but the remaining workload remains substantial. ⑷ In the first eight months, agricultural exports reached approximately US$25.7 billion, forestry products approximately US$12.6 billion, fisheries approximately US$7.9 billion, and livestock products approximately US$500 million. ⑸ During the same period, imports of agricultural, forestry, and fishery products reached approximately US$35.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 8%, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately US$14.3 billion. ⑹ The Ministry maintains its annual growth target of approximately 4% for the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, with a target of approximately 4.15% growth in the third quarter, approximately 4.05% in the first nine months, and approximately 4.2% in the fourth quarter. (7) The annual growth targets for agriculture are approximately 3.77%, forestry approximately 5.23%, fisheries approximately 5.12%, crop farming is projected to grow by approximately 2.93%, and livestock farming by approximately 5.02%. (8) Extreme weather, natural disasters, international market volatility, and increasingly stringent requirements from importing countries may make it more difficult to achieve export targets in the final months. (9) The ministry stated that its focus is not only on increasing export value but also on ensuring supply, maintaining production stability, and enhancing the value of each product group. (10) The ministry plans to closely monitor production and market dynamics by sector and product, update data on output, value, and factors influencing supply and demand, and adjust production plans as necessary. (11) Regarding exports, the ministry will closely monitor each market and product group, eliminate technical barriers, expedite the issuance of codes for planting areas and packaging facilities, and strengthen traceability. (12) In fisheries, the ministry will continue to address the EU's yellow card warnings for illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, improve supply chain transparency, accountability, and traceability, and utilize the domestic market to diversify sales channels.

17:34:10

[Aviation Financing Trends Shift, Oil Prices and Borrowing Costs Become New Concerns] ⑴ At a major industry conference this week, delegates stated that soaring fuel and borrowing costs have replaced aircraft shortages as the biggest concern for jet financing providers, indicating a shift in market sentiment after years of supply-driven turmoil. ⑵ Recent market volatility has exacerbated this shift, including Baltic Airlines' bankruptcy filing, the Middle East wars pushing up oil prices, and a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. ⑶ Leasing company executives stated that the market is turning, and this winter may be more financially challenging than expected. ⑷ Analysts had previously warned that smaller airlines could face pressure from rising fuel costs in the coming months. ⑸ At the same conference a year ago, speakers focused on supply shortages driving up aircraft, engine prices, and leasing rates; now, while manufacturing bottlenecks remain, they are seen as a buffer against slowing demand. ⑹ The head of global transport capital markets at BNP Paribas stated that the speed of the change is alarming, and the momentum supporting the aviation industry may stall or even collapse sharply this winter, particularly in Europe. (7) Executives at aircraft leasing companies stated that engine and parts shortages have eased significantly, but concerns about interest rates have intensified sharply, and borrowing costs are crucial for lessors who control approximately half of the global fleet. (8) Representatives noted that rising fuel costs have begun to dampen activity in the used aircraft market, with some lease rates declining by about 5% to 10%. The business model for mid-aged aircraft will be impacted when oil prices reach $100 per barrel. (9) Some executives discussed potential triggers for overcapacity for the first time in years, but most believed that aircraft and parts shortages would not ease in the short term. (10) New investors are still entering the aviation finance sector, which is beneficial to the industry as a whole, but intensifies competition among leasing companies for the same batch of aircraft assets. (11) Executives stated that there are currently no signs that rising fuel prices and borrowing costs will lead to a significant decline in travel demand; the selection of insurers and partners will be more important in the next 6 to 12 months. (12) Some executives believe that the next industry downturn may originate outside the aviation industry; geopolitical factors or a bond market collapse could be unforeseen triggers.

17:31:54

[Japanese Government Bond Yield Curve Steepens, Central Bank Rate Hike Hints at Divergence] ⑴ The Japanese government bond yield curve initially flattened before steepening around the time of the central bank's policy statement, as the market interpreted the 25 basis point rate hike as a dovish move. ⑵ The central bank raised the policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since April 1995, citing that economic and price trends were in line with the baseline scenario and the increased risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target. ⑶ The vote on the rate hike was 7-2, with two members appointed by the Takaichi Sanae government advocating for maintaining the rate unchanged. This divergence weakened market expectations for further tightening. ⑷ Some traders believe that the possibility of another rate hike at the October meeting has disappeared, and the probability of a rate hike in December has also decreased. ⑸ The curve flattened briefly in the morning session, with the 2-year yield falling to 1.855%, the 10-year yield to 2.945%, and the 40-year yield to 4.05%. (6) Following the announcement of the decision, the yield curve steepened, with the 2-year yield falling further to 1.82% and the 40-year yield rebounding to 4.14%, a net increase of about 3 basis points from the previous day, partly driven by cautious sentiment surrounding the 40-year auction later this month. (7) Market trading was thin, with participants awaiting the central bank meeting results and preparing for the five-day holiday. Two-way flows of regional accounts were observed in medium-term bonds, and a public account reduced its holdings of 20-year bonds when the yield curve flattened in the morning. (8) The central bank governor did not provide a clear signal regarding the pace of future policy adjustments at the press conference; the market is focused on his subsequent statements. (9) The US Treasury Secretary had previously been pressuring for interest rate hikes to prevent the yen from weakening, but the yen resumed its weakening trend after the central bank meeting. The market is watching whether the US will further pressure for accelerated tightening. (10) Overall, market sentiment leaned towards caution after the interest rate hike. Future focus will be on changes in the central bank's communication stance and the demand for long-term auctions.

17:12:35

China's August actual foreign direct investment annual rate (CNY - year-to-date)

Previous : -6.20 Forecast : -

Published Value -5.30

Previous

17:09:39

[my country's Goods Imports Expected to Reach a New High This Year] At a press conference held this afternoon (September 18) by the State Council Information Office, an official from the Ministry of Commerce stated that China, as the world's largest goods trading nation, continues to drive global trade growth. According to the WTO's first-quarter global trade data released in July, China contributed 2.1 percentage points to global trade growth, accounting for 20.3% of the total. Leveraging its complete industrial system and supporting industries, China provides manufacturing equipment and other industrial products to various countries, especially developing countries, providing crucial support for these countries to develop their real economies, upgrade their industrialization levels, and integrate into global supply chains, effectively supporting the stable operation of global supply chains. At the same time, my country adheres to a dual-drive approach of "policy + activities" to expand imports, with the benefits of its massive market reaching the world. Zhang Li, Assistant Minister of Commerce, stated that from January to August this year, my country's imports grew by 22%, the fastest growth since 2021, and the total import value for the year is expected to reach a new high. More and more high-quality global goods are entering the Chinese consumer market and integrating into China's supply chain system, bringing more orders to companies in various countries, promoting the development of their related industries, and increasing local employment. (CCTV)

17:03:58

Eurozone July construction output month-on-month rate

Previous : -1.34% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

Previous

17:03:14

Eurozone July construction output year-on-year rate

Previous : -0.70 Forecast : -

Published Value -2

Previous

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