2025-12-17 Wednesday
2025-12-20
15:16:45
Wells Fargo increases its expectation of a Fed rate cut in 2026. ⑴ October nonfarm payrolls fell by 105,000, mainly due to the end of the federal government's delayed resignation program; even excluding the federal sector, job growth was only 57,000. ⑵ November nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since the end of the pandemic. ⑶ Wage growth slowed to an annualized rate of 3.5%, the lowest level since 2021. ⑷ If November and December CPI data, as well as the December jobs report, are lower than expected, the likelihood of a rate cut will increase. ⑸ The base case is two 25-basis-point rate cuts at the March and June FOMC meetings in the first half of 2026, with the possibility of further rate cuts.
15:11:29
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Copper
Previous
:
3558
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-907
Previous
15:11:29
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Zinc
Previous
:
431
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-3265
Previous
15:11:27
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Aluminum
Previous
:
-625
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-625
Previous
15:11:26
Daily warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Silver
Previous
:
32901
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
21209
Previous
15:11:22
Daily warehouse receipt changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Nickel
Previous
:
821
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-432
Previous
15:11:20
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th, China - Tin
Previous
:
131
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
34
Previous
15:11:17
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Alumina
Previous
:
-2394
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-9613
Previous
15:11:15
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Wire Rods
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:13
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Hot-rolled coil
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:11
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th, China - Stainless Steel
Previous
:
-616
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-1156
Previous
15:11:10
Daily warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Fuel oil
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:08
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Petroleum Asphalt
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:06
Daily warehouse receipt changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China -20 # rubber
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:04
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Pulp
Previous
:
-4993
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-3566
Previous
15:11:02
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Natural Rubber
Previous
:
11300
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
2900
Previous
15:11:02
Daily warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - crude oil
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:11:01
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Gold
Previous
:
0
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
420
Previous
15:11:01
Daily Warehouse receipt changes of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 17th in China - Rebar
Previous
:
21157
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0
Previous
15:09:25
[UK November Inflation Unexpectedly Slows, Strengthening Expectations of a Bank of England Rate Cut] ⑴ The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.2% year-on-year in November, lower than the expected 3.5% and the previous reading of 3.6%. The core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous reading of 3.4%, the lowest since January. ⑵ This data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, especially core inflation. This will solidify market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut this week and may pressure the central bank to consider further rate cuts in the future, provided it can begin to signal that inflation will continue to decline next year. ⑶ After the data release, the pound fell 0.6% against the dollar, from 1.3377 before the data release to 1.3345. ⑷ The breakdown data showed that the sharp decline in inflation was mainly due to food price inflation slowing from 4.9% in October to 4.2% in November. ⑸ In addition, goods inflation also slowed from 2.6% to 2.1%, as "Black Friday" discounts led to a 0.3% month-on-month decline in clothing and footwear prices and a 0.6% year-on-year decline. In contrast, clothing and footwear prices rose 0.6% month-on-month in November 2024, suggesting that the Black Friday discounts may have had a greater impact on lowering prices. (6) Service sector inflation, however, decreased slightly from 4.6% in October to 4.5% in November.
15:07:27
The monthly rate of the UK's services sector CPI in November
Previous
:
0.20%
Forecast
:
0%
Published Value
-0.20%
Previous
15:07:26
The year-on-year rate of the UK's services sector CPI in November
Previous
:
4.50%
Forecast
:
4.50%
Published Value
4.40%
Previous
15:05:44
The UK's unadjusted input PPI monthly rate for November
Previous
:
-0.30%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.30%
Previous
15:05:12
The UK's unadjusted input PPI monthly rate for November
Previous
:
-0.30%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.30%
Previous
15:05:04
The UK's unadjusted core output PPI monthly rate for November
Previous
:
0.10%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0%
Previous
15:04:46
The UK's unadjusted core output PPI year-on-year rate for November
Previous
:
3.60%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.50%
Previous
15:04:12
The UK's unadjusted Producer price Index (PPI) monthly rate for November
Previous
:
0%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
0.10%
Previous
15:03:41
The UK's unadjusted Producer price index (PPI) year-on-year rate for November
Previous
:
0.50%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.10%
Previous
15:02:21
The UK's unadjusted CPI reading for November
Previous
:
139.80
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
139.50
Previous
15:01:51
The UK's unadjusted Producer price index (PPI) year-on-year rate for November
Previous
:
0.50%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
1.10%
Previous
15:01:29
The UK's unadjusted CPI reading for November
Previous
:
139.80
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
139.50
Previous
15:01:23
The UK's unadjusted Producer price index (PPI) year-on-year rate for November
Previous
:
3.60%
Forecast
:
3.50%
Published Value
3.40%
Previous
15:00:14
The monthly rate of the core retail price index in the UK for November
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-0.40%
Previous
15:00:13
South Africa's leading indicators for October
Previous
:
114.20
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
116.70
Previous
15:00:13
The monthly rate of the UK's retail price index for November
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0%
Published Value
-0.50%
Previous
15:00:12
The monthly rate of the core retail price index in the UK for November
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
-0.50%
Previous
15:00:10
The monthly rate of core CPI in the UK for November
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0.10%
Published Value
-0.20%
Previous
15:00:08
The monthly rate of the UK's retail price index for November
Previous
:
0.30%
Forecast
:
0%
Published Value
-0.40%
Previous
15:00:08
The annual rate of the core retail price index in the UK for November
Previous
:
4.20%
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
3.70%
Previous
15:00:07
The UK's retail price index for November
Previous
:
407.40
Forecast
:
-
Published Value
405.60
Previous
15:00:06
The annual rate of the UK's retail price index in November
Previous
:
4.30%
Forecast
:
4.20%
Published Value
3.80%
Previous
15:00:06
The core CPI annual rate in the UK for November
Previous
:
3.40%
Forecast
:
3.40%
Published Value
3.20%
Previous
15:00:05
The UK's CPI monthly rate for November
Previous
:
0.40%
Forecast
:
0%
Published Value
-0.20%
Previous
15:00:04
The year-on-year rate of the UK's CPI in November
Previous
:
3.60%
Forecast
:
3.50%
Published Value
3.20%
Previous
15:00:03
The policy interest rate of the central bank of Thailand on December 17th
Previous
:
1.50%
Forecast
:
1.25%
Published Value
1.25%
Previous
14:57:09
[Hainan Free Trade Port to Officially Close, Qiongzhou Strait Sees Surge in Passenger and Freight Volumes] On December 18th, the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially launch its island-wide customs closure. As a vital waterway connecting Guangdong and Hainan, the Qiongzhou Strait's shipping safety and efficiency directly impact the smooth implementation of the closure. According to the Zhanjiang Maritime Safety Administration, with the closure approaching, passenger and freight volume across the Qiongzhou Strait is experiencing a pre-opening surge. Data shows that in early December this year, the number of passenger and vehicle ferries departing across the Qiongzhou Strait increased by 9%, 23%, and 18% respectively compared to early November, with new energy vehicle transport volume increasing by 27%. It is predicted that during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, the Qiongzhou Strait will see 4.97 million passengers and 1.16 million vehicles, a significant increase compared to previous years. Simultaneously, the proportion of new energy vehicles in ferry services continues to climb, expected to reach 28% during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, with a daily ferry volume of 6,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100%. (CCTV News)
14:36:43
[EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1730 due to ECB rate stagnation expectations] 1. EUR/USD fell to around 1.1730 during the Asian and European sessions on Wednesday (December 17), a drop of about 0.20%, influenced by rising demand for the US dollar. However, the potential downside for major currency pairs may be limited as the market increasingly accepts the view that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle. The market widely expects the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting on Thursday. Since July, the central bank has consistently maintained its key deposit rate at 2%. 2. Across the Atlantic, the November US jobs report was mixed: on the one hand, it showed that the labor market remained relatively resilient, but on the other hand, it also showed signs of slowing down, which may drag the dollar down, thus providing support for the EUR/USD pair. US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, better than the market expectation of 50,000. At the same time, the US unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in October. 3. Observing the daily chart, the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is gradually rising to 1.1601. The current exchange rate is stable above this moving average, maintaining a bullish bias. The Bollinger Band middle line (i.e., the 20-period moving average) has moved up to around 1.1639, providing shallow support for the exchange rate during pullbacks. Currently, the price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating that bullish pressure is solid against the backdrop of rising volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 65, showing strong bullish momentum and has not yet entered the overbought zone. 4. The near-term resistance level is seen at the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1788, while the support level is set at the middle Bollinger Band at 1.1639 and the 100-day EMA at 1.1601. If the exchange rate can effectively break through the upper Bollinger Band resistance level, it is expected to continue its upward trend; conversely, if it fails to overcome this resistance, the exchange rate will continue to be constrained by the current resistance and may pull back to test the support level.
14:34:14
[White House Rejects Vanity Fair Interview as Inaccurate] On December 16, local time, Vanity Fair published an interview with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, based on interviews conducted by veteran political journalist Chris Whipple over the past year. In the interview, Wiles claimed that President Trump has an "alcoholic personality," Vice President Vance is a "conspiracy theorist," White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought is a "right-wing fanatic," and Musk is a "weirdo." Following the publication of the article, Wiles quickly refuted it, calling the report "malicious and malicious." On the same day, White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that this was a "case of dishonest reporting," adding that "the reporter quoted the White House Chief of Staff out of context, completely omitting the context of these conversations." Levitt also stated that Trump will deliver a national address at 9 PM Eastern Time on December 17, focusing on the achievements of the past 11 months and plans for the next three years. (CCTV)
14:30:50
[International Energy Agency: Global Coal Demand to Reach Record High in 2025] 1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that global coal demand will reach a record high in 2025, but is expected to decline by 2030 as renewable energy, nuclear power, and abundant natural gas will squeeze coal's dominance in power generation. While weaning the world off coal is seen as key to achieving global climate goals, coal remains the largest single fuel source for global power generation. 2. The IEA's 2025 Coal Report indicates that coal demand is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tons. "Looking ahead, we believe global coal demand will plateau and decline very slowly by 2030," said Keisuke Sadamori, head of the IEA's Energy Markets and Security Department, at a press conference. 3. Despite a different trend in 2025, the forecast is largely unchanged from last year's outlook. India's coal consumption saw its third decline in 50 years as heavy rainfall increased hydropower supply and dampened electricity demand.
14:25:16
Oil Prices Rebound Over 1.5% on Geopolitical Risks; Trump's Lockdown Order Sparks Supply Concerns 1. International oil prices rose more than 1.5% on Wednesday, with WTI crude rising as much as 1.74% to $56.09 per barrel and Brent crude rising as much as $1.72 to $59.856 per barrel. US President Trump ordered a "complete and thorough" blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. This move, against the backdrop of weak global demand prospects, has triggered new geopolitical tensions and brought uncertainty to the oil market. 2. Trump announced the blockade order late Tuesday, stating that he had designated the Venezuelan rulers as a "foreign terrorist organization." A US oil trader estimated that this move could affect 400,000-500,000 barrels of oil supply per day, pushing oil prices up by $1-2 per barrel. 3. However, Asian oil traders pointed out that Wednesday's price increase was also driven by a recovery in buying in the futures market after it fell below $60 per barrel the previous day. One trader stated, "Today's prices were mainly driven by sentiment surrounding Venezuelan news, but overall, Venezuela's exports account for a small share of global supply. Given that the market focus remains on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, oil prices still face downside risks." Another trader believes this rally may be unsustainable, stating, "This could be a good opportunity to establish short positions." Currently, although many oil tankers operating in Venezuela are sanctioned, some vessels transporting Venezuelan oil, as well as Iranian and Russian crude, remain outside the sanctions. Furthermore, Chevron can continue to transport Venezuelan crude to the United States using tankers previously chartered under US government authorization. Analysts point out that while the overall oil market supply is currently ample, a prolonged blockade could drive crude oil prices further up.
14:23:10
[HSBC Points to Strong Australian Public Spending Growth, Government's "Sharp Slowdown" Target Shows "Ambitiousness"] 1. A recent analysis by HSBC points out that the Australian government's forecast of a significant slowdown in public spending appears "ambitious," showing a clear gap between the actual data and the strong growth trend. 2. HSBC Chief Economist Paul Bloxham, citing Treasury data, stated that in the fiscal year ending June 2026, Australia's real public spending is expected to grow by 4.5%, exceeding expectations and demonstrating continued expansionary momentum. In contrast, the government's official forecast for the next fiscal year is a sharp slowdown to 0.3%, which, if realized, would be the weakest public spending growth in the country in over a decade. Analysts believe that achieving such a sharp slowdown target will be challenging given the continued strong spending.