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Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

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2025-09-17 Wednesday

2025-09-19

20:33:56

【Spot Gold Technical Analysis】Observe from the 60-minute chart. The middle track of the Bollinger Band is 3683.62, the upper track is 3705.15, and the lower track is 3662.10. On September 16, the price once reached 3702.93 during the trading session before turning around. The next trading day, the price moved down along the middle track and hovered above the lower track, with the intraday low at 3659.89. In terms of the K-line structure, a "high-reaching fall" with a long upper shadow formed above 3700, followed by a mean reversion close to the lower track - a weakening rhythm with the trend, reflecting the characteristics of a retracement segment after the expansion of the Bollinger Bandwidth. MACD: DIFF is -4.46, DEA is -1.44, and the MACD histogram is -6.04 and continues to "expand green", indicating that the momentum is tilted towards the short side. There has been no "volume decay" or "bottom divergence" signal near the zero axis. RSI (14) points to around 38.83, which is in the "lower edge oscillation band" between the weak zone and the oversold threshold, indicating that the short-term rebound is still mainly under pressure. Support/Resistance Reference: Below, watch for 3662.10 (lower Bollinger band), 3645.00 (horizontal key price), and 3626.58 (previous low). Above, resistance is seen at 3683.62 (middle Bollinger band/average resistance), 3702.93 (previous high), and 3705.15 (upper Bollinger band). Currently, the price is trading between the middle and lower Bollinger bands, suggesting a weak range. A retest of 3683.62 and a retest of the hourly level would trigger a retest of 3700. Conversely, a break of 3662.10 would open the door to a possible retest of 3645.00.

20:33:37

Ukraine and the United States will provide a total of $150 million to a joint investment fund

20:33:14

MBS Basis Pressure Await Fed Decision: ⑴ The market is closely watching the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy statement and summary of economic projections, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell. Ahead of these key events, housing data, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, and short-term Treasury auctions are also attracting market attention. The Bank of Canada will also announce its interest rate decision, with a 25 basis point cut expected. ⑵ MBA data released earlier in the day showed a significant surge in refinance activity as mortgage rates retreated to near their lowest levels since October of last year. The refinance index surged 57.7% to 1596.7 in the week ending September 12, reaching its highest level since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022. The refinance share of total applications rose to 59.8%, the highest level since the week ending January 14, 2022. During the same period, the Composite Market Index rose 29.7% to 386.1, with the Purchase Index edging up 2.9% to 174.0. (3) UK CPI data for August met expectations, with year-on-year and core CPI figures at 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, unchanged from July. Given this reading is well above the Bank of England's 2% target, no interest rate cut is expected in the near term, including at tomorrow's meeting. (4) Regarding market dynamics, the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated between 4.003% and 4.037%, with limited trading volume. Both the 2s10s and 10s30s curves flattened. US stock index futures and major European stock indices were flat. The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.19% to 96.82. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage-backed security (UMBS30) traded within a range of +/- 4 basis points after tightening by 0.7 and 0.6 basis points.

20:32:07

Key technical levels for UK gilts reveal market trends, with a slight rebound after inflation data. ⑴ UK gilts rebounded significantly after hitting a two-day low of 91.14, prior to the September 8 low of 91.09, but the current price remains well below the September 11 high of 91.82. ⑵ Key technical resistance levels include 91.82 (the September 11 spike high), 91.99 (the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level), and 92.70 (the August 5 high). ⑶ The market saw a slight rise after the release of today's inflation data, with the 10-year gilt yield firmly above the low of 4.59%. Trend support lies around this level, while resistance is seen at the two-day high of 4.68%. ⑷ The spread between UK and German 10-year government bonds has stabilized after hitting a low of 191 basis points last Friday, with resistance in the 198-200 basis point range, currently at 194 basis points.

20:30:10

Preliminary value of the annualized total number of building permits in the United States for August

Previous : 136.20 Forecast : 137

金银石油

美元

Published Value 131.20

20:30:09

The preliminary monthly rate of building permits in the United States for August

Previous : -2.20% Forecast : 0.60%

金银石油

美元

Published Value -3.70%

20:30:09

The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the United States in August

Previous : 5.20% Forecast : -3.70%

金银石油

美元

Published Value -8.50%

20:30:07

Canadian investors net purchased overseas securities in July

Previous : 90.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 174.10

20:30:07

In July, overseas investors net bought Canadian securities

Previous : 7.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 266.90

20:30:06

The annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in August

Previous : 142.80 Forecast : 136.50

金银石油

美元

Published Value 130.70

20:29:43

Is the dot plot going to "bargain"? Gold hesitates at 3700, with 3645 being the key to success or failure. Details>

20:29:36

Bank of America CEO Moynihan: Business customers with lines of credit are still borrowing a low percentage of available credit

20:28:16

General Mills Faces Challenges: Growth Under Pressure, How Will the Giant Respond? (1) General Mills maintained its annual sales and profit forecasts on Wednesday (Beijing Time), despite facing challenges from rising economic uncertainty and weak demand in key markets such as North America. Rising consumer prices and a cooling US labor market are squeezing household budgets, prompting consumers to turn to cheaper private label brands, putting widespread pressure on packaged food manufacturers. (2) The company reported a 16 percentage point year-over-year quarterly sales decline in North America, and expects growth across the category to fall short of its long-term target. General Mills reiterated its annual target of a 10% to 15% decline in adjusted profit and a 1% to 1% increase in organic net sales. (3) Despite the challenges, General Mills' sales decline was mitigated by sales growth in its North American pet food division and in international markets such as India and Europe. In the quarter ended August 24, net sales in international markets grew 6%, driven by a 6 percentage point increase in prices. North American pet food net sales increased 6%, driven in part by the recent acquisition of Whitebridge Pet Brands' North American business, compared to a 1% decline in sales in the same division in the same period last year. ⑷ In terms of financial data, first-quarter sales fell 6.8% to $4.52 billion, slightly better than analysts' expectations of a 6.9% decline to $4.51 billion. After adjustment, General Mills' earnings per share were 86 cents, higher than the expected 81 cents, thanks in part to price increases in its international and North American pet food divisions. However, General Mills' stock price fell about 2% in pre-market trading, and has fallen about 22% so far this year.

20:26:41

[Russian grain exports have started weakly, and officials have held multiple rounds of talks with traders to boost them] People familiar with the matter revealed that as the world's largest wheat exporter, Russia's grain exports have started weakly this sales season. Russian officials have held talks with major domestic grain traders to promote export growth. People familiar with the matter said that at least two rounds of talks have been held with Russian officials (including Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev) in recent months. They pointed out that one of the proposals to boost exports focuses on providing subsidies for "grain railway ports." Traders said that the current grain prices in the Russian domestic market are more attractive, making it more cost-effective to sell domestically than to export overseas; in addition, the export tax imposed by the Russian government in 2021 has also suppressed exports. People familiar with the matter said that in this series of talks launched in July, Patrushev asked traders to make commitments to ensure that the export targets set by the government are achieved. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture said earlier this month that it plans to export about 33 million tons of grain in the second half of this year.

20:25:17

Bank of America CEO Moynihan: Fed will have to keep an eye on inflation

20:23:51

Euro leads, pound sterling lags! Is the prelude to a non-US currency explosion already here? Details>

20:22:01

US Secretary of State Rubio: Hamas is a designated organization (under sanctions)

20:20:14

Amazon is investing over $1 billion to increase wages and reduce healthcare costs for its fulfillment and shipping employees in the United States. Amazon said the average hourly wage will increase to over $23, and when the benefits package is factored in, the hourly wage will exceed $30. Starting in 2026, the cost of the health insurance plan for all employees will be reduced from over $7 per week to $5, and co-pays for doctor visits will be reduced from $40 to $5.

20:19:59

US State Department: US designates four Iran-linked militias as terrorist organizations

20:18:06

Amazon (AMZN.O): Investing more than $1 billion to increase employee wages and reduce health care costs

20:16:47

DJI releases the DJI Mini 5 Pro mini drone, priced from 4788 yuan

20:10:29

Bank of America CEO Moynihan: Bank of America is focusing on technology for cost efficiency

20:09:30

Indian Trade Minister Goyal to visit the UAE from September 18 to 19

20:08:18

Spot gold just broke through the $3,670.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,670.05/ounce, down 0.53% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,705.70/ounce, down 0.52% on the day.

20:06:48

[EU and Indonesia Complete Trade Agreement Negotiations, Official Announcement: September 23] After nearly a decade of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have concluded trade agreement negotiations. EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on September 23 to officially announce the agreement, according to European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill.

20:04:19

[Strategist: The probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates has decreased, but the pound remains fragile] Convera strategist Antonio Ruggiero said in a report that although the UK's inflation and employment data this week further reduced the possibility of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates, the pound remains fragile. He pointed out that the structural resistance facing the pound continues to exist; if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected but releases cautious policy guidance, the pound may face a risk of falling. Ruggiero said that the Fed may reiterate its willingness to cut interest rates, but given that price pressures remain a "real concern", it remains uncertain about the future policy path. He said that in this case, the pound may fall back below $1.36

20:01:24

[BNP Paribas: The US dollar may deviate from historical trends] BNP Paribas strategists said in a report that if the US Federal Reserve announces an interest rate cut on Wednesday, the US dollar may deviate from historical trends. Based on historical patterns, if a recession does not occur after the first rate cut, the US dollar tends to rise in the following months, supported by capital inflows into the US stock market; and if a recession occurs, the US dollar usually benefits from the inflow of safe-haven funds. However, the situation may be different this time: if the possibility of a recession increases, the US dollar may fall instead - because the current trading logic of the US dollar is more in line with the fluctuation pattern of risky assets.

19:54:35

Global cocoa supply could fall by a third due to weather and disease, industry executives say

19:54:28

Angola to load 36 crude oil cargoes in November (compared to 31 planned in October) - Trade sources

19:53:57

[South African Treasury: Plans to launch Eurobonds to supplement cash reserves] The South African Treasury said that after repaying $2 billion in bonds that matured this week, it is considering entering the European bond market to supplement its cash reserves. The head of the Treasury's funds and liability management department said that these bonds were redeemed with existing cash reserves and foreign exchange raised from channels such as multilateral lenders. In the budget review on March 12, the Treasury said it plans to raise $14.6 billion over the next three years to meet its foreign exchange commitments. The funds will be raised from multilateral development banks, international financial institutions and capital markets. South Africa's borrowing costs in the international capital markets are at their lowest level in more than seven years. The yield premium that investors require to hold South African dollar bonds rather than U.S. Treasuries, the sovereign spread, has narrowed by about 30 basis points this month to 249 basis points, the lowest level since April 2018.

19:53:31

Bank of America's September European fund manager survey showed that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about global economic growth as concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs fade and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts boost market sentiment.

19:50:35

[Bank of America Survey: Investor Optimism About Global Economic Growth Is Growing] Bank of America's September European Fund Manager Survey shows that investor optimism about global economic growth is growing as concerns about the impact of US tariffs recede and expectations of US interest rate cuts boost market sentiment. Bank of America stated that the market expects the EU economy to accelerate growth. The survey noted: "The net percentage of respondents who believe the global economy will slow has fallen to its lowest level since February of this year."

19:49:43

Turkish Airlines chairman: We are still in talks with Boeing (BA.N) about purchasing 250 aircraft

19:48:32

Bank of America: Raising the minimum hourly wage in the U.S. to $25 and the starting salary in the U.S. to over $50,000. The changes will take effect in early October. The salary increase applies to all full-time and part-time positions in the U.S.

19:45:51

[76-year-old Ray Dalio opens a new chapter in his career: completely withdraws from Bridgewater Fund and takes charge of family office investment] Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Fund, has taken over the investment management of his family office. At the same time, he has completed a long-planned plan-to withdraw from the hedge fund that created billions of dollars in wealth for him. The 76-year-old Ray Dalio recently completely cut off the last connection with Bridgewater Fund and opened a new chapter in his career. The former commodities trader founded Bridgewater Fund in a two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975 and built it into the world's largest hedge fund. The Dalio Family Office recently issued a job notice, planning to recruit investment personnel for a "small" global macro team, who will work "closely" with the American billionaire; the team's strategy will continue Dalio's thinking during his time at Bridgewater Fund, and this recruitment will further expand its rapidly growing staff team over the past decade.

19:45:19

Barclays raises its price target on Dell (DELL.N) to $133 from $131

19:41:39

[Rabobank: European natural gas prices may stabilize in the high €20 range from the second quarter of next year] Florence Schmit, an analyst at Rabobank, said that thanks to the commissioning of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity, European natural gas prices are expected to stabilize in the high €20 per megawatt-hour range from the second quarter of next year. The energy strategist pointed out: "Europe's natural gas supply is undergoing a structural transformation - the core feature is the decline in dependence on pipeline natural gas and the increase in dependence on liquefied natural gas. This transformation has brought new vulnerabilities. The energy security of the European continent will increasingly depend on the dynamics of the global LNG market, weather changes, and infrastructure bottlenecks, making the stability of natural gas prices more sensitive to external shocks than in the pre-war period." Rabobank said that the scale of new LNG production capacity that is about to be put into production is considerable. The production capacity of the United States alone will increase by 8%, pushing the global annual LNG production capacity to increase by approximately 34 million tons. Currently, the price of the European natural gas benchmark - the Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract is hovering above €32 per megawatt-hour.

19:40:21

[British companies: We need to share the $40 billion AI investment equally with American companies and not become "land dealers" for American data centers] Allan Kaye, co-founder and director of data center specialist Vespertec, wrote in a report that British policymakers should ensure that British companies can benefit equally from the billions of dollars in technology investment commitments, just like American companies. Major American companies have pledged to invest more than $40 billion in the UK in the next few years to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure. Kaye said that these investments are certainly worth celebrating, but he is worried that the balance of investment returns will tilt towards American technology giants. Kaye pointed out: "We must work with American partners on an equal basis to promote the development of the UK's local artificial intelligence industry, rather than just becoming a 'land provider' for American data centers."

19:40:19

[The U.S. Treasury Secretary's real estate documents are caught in a "dual primary residence" controversy, and the reasons for Cook's dismissal are strikingly similar] ⑴ Mortgage documents show that U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson had listed two different properties as his "primary residence" at the same time. This contradictory promise is exactly the same as the reason Trump cited when he tried to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Cook. ⑵ Despite the existence of such inconsistencies in documents, several mortgage experts pointed out that there is currently no evidence that Benson has engaged in any misconduct, and such situations may not directly prove the existence of fraud. ⑶ Benson's lawyer Alex Spiro said that since he has not studied Cook's specific situation in detail, he cannot comment on the similarities and differences between the two people's situations.

19:38:47

[Bessant had listed two properties as "primary residences" at the same time, the same reason as Cook's dismissal] Mortgage documents show that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant had agreed to list two different properties as his "primary residence" at the same time - this contradictory promise is exactly the same as the reason Trump cited when he tried to dismiss Federal Reserve Board Governor Cook. But mortgage experts say there is no indication that he has engaged in any wrongdoing. On the contrary, his case shows that inconsistencies in home loan documents do not necessarily prove fraud. Bessant's lawyer, Alex Spiro, said that because he had not studied Cook's specific situation in detail, he could not comment on the similarities and differences in the two people's situations.

19:37:16

Asian Refiners Boost Global Naphtha Market Fluctuations] (1) Asian naphtha imports in September are expected to exceed August levels, driven by stable downstream demand and refinery inventory accumulation in preparation for planned fourth-quarter maintenance. Asian cracker operators are actively announcing purchasing intentions to meet anticipated fourth-quarter downstream demand. Despite higher Asian naphtha prices, naphtha remains a favored feedstock for the petrochemical industry, given the strengthening prices of its alternative, propane. (2) European naphtha imports in September are expected to be flat or lower than the previous month's total of 1.84 million tons. European imports fell 10% to 285,000 tons in the week ending September 15. During the same period, inventories at the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) hub rose 15.4% to 667,000 tons, driven by slower blending activity. Despite ongoing disruptions to Russia's refining and export infrastructure caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, market fundamentals in the region remain relatively strong. (3) Middle Eastern naphtha exports are expected to reach 1.98 million tons in September, potentially exceeding August's 4.72 million tons. The region will continue to supply the Asian market, partially offsetting the impact of reduced Russian exports. Despite planned maintenance at two refineries in Saudi Arabia in the fourth quarter, exports from other producers, including the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, are expected to remain stable. U.S. naphtha exports are projected to reach 264,000 tons in September, potentially exceeding August's 585,000 tons. Domestic blending demand is weakening as the summer driving season winds down, which is expected to support increased exports, particularly to Asian markets. (4) Asian spot prices for open-grade naphtha climbed 2.69% to $611 per ton (cost and freight), CIF Japan, in the week ending September 15. Upcoming maintenance at Middle Eastern refineries and the drone attack on Russian refineries, which heightened supply concerns, are the primary drivers of the price increase. High feedstock costs are putting pressure on downstream profits, with the ethylene-naphtha spread narrowing by 6.4% this week to $234 per ton. However, naphtha remains the preferred feedstock for petrochemical companies compared to propane. The Asian naphtha-to-propane ratio is 92.9%, and cracker operators typically switch to propane only when it is below 90%. ⑸ Looking ahead, naphtha market fundamentals are expected to remain strong in the coming weeks, supported by factors such as ongoing Russian supply disruptions, upcoming maintenance at refineries in the Middle East, and the potential for stronger LPG prices in winter. Meanwhile, demand in Europe is expected to remain stable.

19:36:00

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Today we propose sanctions against extremist Israeli ministers and violent settlers, and the suspension of trade preferences and bilateral support for Israel, without affecting our cooperation with Israeli civil society or Yad Vashem.

19:34:02

[LiDAR companies are flooded with orders and it is expected that the scale of China's LiDAR market may exceed 24 billion yuan in 2025] LiDAR is one of the core components of robots. It allows robots to realize functions such as positioning, navigation, and obstacle avoidance. Since the beginning of this year, due to the strong demand in the robot market, LiDAR companies have seen a surge in orders. At the production base of a LiDAR company in Shenzhen, reporters saw workers busy everywhere. The business manager told reporters that the overall domestic sales increased by nearly 100% compared with last year. Orders for another LiDAR company in Shenzhen have been scheduled until the end of the year. Data shows that the scale of China's LiDAR market is expected to reach 24.07 billion yuan in 2025 and further increase to 43.18 billion yuan in 2026. (CCTV Finance)

19:32:40

[The EU is committed to strengthening relations with India to diversify its trading partners] The EU is committed to strengthening its relations with India, with the core goal of diversifying its trading partners and expanding its global influence. Brussels reiterated that it plans to reach a free trade agreement with India this year. The statement pointed out that the two sides are "exploring the establishment of an EU-India security and defense partnership." The EU's move to deepen relations with India follows the visit of EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic to New Delhi last week. At the same time, the EU is facing pressure from the United States - the United States asked the EU to impose tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil.

19:28:04

[Federal Reserve Decision Preview: The "Open Cards" of the Interest Rate Decision and the "Undercurrents" of the 2025 Rate Cut Path] ⑴ The market is closely watching the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision. Beyond the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut, dissenting opinions from three or more officials will be a focus. Some analysts suggest this may not only reflect deep disagreements on policy but also be linked to political factors. ⑵ The highly anticipated 2025 rate cut dot plot will reveal FOMC members' views on the number of rate cuts remaining this year: just one or possibly two. Previous signals suggest a growing preference for more rate cuts, potentially tied to specific political agendas. ⑶ The market appears to be overly optimistic about rate cuts, pricing in three rate cuts rather than two. Even if the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts, this could trigger "sell-the-fact" trading. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield finds support below 4%, near 3.97%, while 4.09% presents resistance. ⑷ Media reports indicate that the disagreements within the Federal Reserve will force the chairman to face an unprecedented situation. If more officials appointed by Trump tend to favor larger-scale rate cuts, those officials who are cautious about rate cuts may adopt more conservative statements in future policy guidance. On the contrary, if officials who previously supported rate cuts support the current decision this time, they may gain more say in signaling the path of future rate cuts. ⑸ Taking into account recent economic data, the negative reassessment of labor market conditions and the tendency of some officials to cut interest rates faster, it is indicated that the path of rate cuts in 2025 will be full of uncertainty. In addition, although mortgage rates have fallen, they are still high for many builders, who are struggling to cope with weak demand and competition in the second-hand housing market.

19:24:51

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co's international investment arm, XRG, said on Wednesday that an investment group it led has withdrawn its $18.7 billion bid for Australian natural gas producer Santos.

19:24:29

Germany's 30-year bond yield fell 4.5 basis points to 3.23%, its lowest level since August 14.

19:21:16

Is the British Pound Under Pressure? Central Bank Decisions May Be a Short-Term "Smokescreen"? ⑴ Institutional analysts suggest that the upcoming policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to be only a temporary distraction for British Pound investors. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the early morning hours of the 18th (1800 GMT on the 17th) Beijing time. ⑵ In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Analysts believe this is not entirely positive for the British Pound, especially compared to the Euro, given the UK's weaker fundamentals than the Eurozone. ⑶ The UK's economic weakness and fiscal risks are likely to continue to exert downward pressure on the British Pound in the medium term. The British Pound fell 0.1% against the US Dollar to $1.3640. ⑷ However, the British Pound rose against the Euro, which fell 0.2% to 0.8675 per Euro.

19:20:25

[Expectations of a Rate Cut Explode! US Mortgage Refinancing Volume Soars to a Three-Year High] ⑴ Last week, the interest rate on 30-year mortgage contracts in the US fell 10 basis points, reaching its lowest point in nearly a year. This decline in interest rates directly stimulated a surge in refinancing volume, with data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showing that its refinancing activity index has climbed to its highest level since early 2022. ⑵ The home loan application index also rose, and the overall mortgage activity index hit a more than three-year high. Three consecutive weeks of falling interest rates have provided new momentum to the previously sluggish real estate market. ⑶ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin a cycle of rate cuts in the coming months. Continued declines in mortgage rates are expected to reignite homebuyer demand and encourage more homeowners to list their homes, further invigorating the real estate market.

19:18:23

The FTSE China A50 Index futures just broke through the 15200.00 mark and are currently trading at 15201.00, up 0.13% on the day.

19:18:00

[Axos Financial's huge note issuance, 7% interest rate attracts attention] ⑴ Axos Financial announced on Wednesday (Beijing time) that it has successfully priced $200 million in 7% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated bonds, which will mature in 2035. The move is aimed at optimizing the capital structure and providing financial support for the company's future growth strategy. ⑵ The funds raised from this issuance are expected to be used to repay $175 million in subordinated bonds with an interest rate of approximately 9% that will mature in 2030. Through this issuance, Axos Financial has successfully reduced short-term financing costs and laid a solid foundation for long-term development. ⑶ The coupon rate of the newly issued bonds is 7%, effective April 1, 2026. From October 1, 2030 to October 1, 2035 (or the early redemption date), the interest rate will be adjusted to a floating rate, which is the then-current three-month SOFR plus 379 basis points. This note issuance highlights the company's meticulous management of financing costs in the current market environment.

19:12:47

Nikkei: Bank of Japan expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's meeting

19:12:38

White House trade advisor Navarro: The Fed's interest rate is at least 100 basis points higher than normal. The Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points today and another 50 basis points at the next meeting.

19:11:08

Afghan Dry Fruit Exports Meet EU Standards; Food Safety Training Opens Doors to High-End Markets. (1) A food safety standards training program, co-hosted by the agency and the EU, was successfully held in Kabul from September 15th to 16th. The training aimed to enhance the accessibility of Afghan food exports to high-end markets such as the EU. The training focused on dried fruits and nuts and attracted key stakeholders, including the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce, the Afghan Women's Chamber of Commerce, Afghan exporters, and food safety experts. (2) The training program introduced Afghan producers to key international and European food safety standards necessary for access to high-end markets such as the EU, and emphasized the need for private sector investment in quality assurance and certification throughout the food supply chain, from farm to table. The program provided practical knowledge to help participants avoid export rejections due to common issues such as pesticide residues and allergens. (3) Data indicates that Afghanistan's total exports are expected to reach $1.8 billion in 2024, with fruit and nut exports accounting for $590 million. Although trade with the EU is currently modest, Afghanistan has significant potential to expand market access by improving food safety compliance. Veronika Boskovic Pohar, Charge d'Affaires of the EU Delegation to Afghanistan, stated that the EU is committed to helping Afghanistan develop a strong and sustainable food sector. Investing in food safety and quality will not only protect consumers but also empower Afghan producers to access new, high-value markets. Mutinta Chimuka, Deputy Country Director of the United Nations World Food Programme in Afghanistan, emphasized the WFP's unwavering commitment to strengthening Afghanistan's food sector and improving food safety standards. Building effective institutional and regulatory frameworks is crucial for ensuring food safety and aligning the private sector with international benchmarks. The EU Delegation to Afghanistan also plans to conduct training on product standards for accessing international markets in other economic sectors.

19:10:13

[The IPO winter may be over, and low-priced listings will become the new normal] ⑴ A new wave of listings is emerging, but the market environment remains complex, which may mean that low-priced issuances will become the norm. Companies such as Swedish fintech company Klarna and security company Verisure are leading this recovery. Klarna's listing price was 40% lower than its competitors, reflecting the uncertainty that still exists in the current market. ⑵ As private equity funds line up to seek to take their companies public, sellers may need to accept transactions at lower prices. For example, Verisure, a security services company headquartered in Switzerland, announced plans to list on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, intending to raise 3.1 billion euros (about 3.7 billion US dollars). ⑶ Verisure said it plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO to strengthen its balance sheet, including refinancing some of its debt and funding its acquisition of ADT Mexico. In addition, Verisure expects to raise 235 million euros from existing investors Alba Investments and Securholds Spain

19:07:08

Swiss Re Integrates ILS Businesses, Showing Significant Investor Attraction: (1) Swiss Re announced the integration of its two insurance-linked securities (ILS) businesses into a single platform. This move aims to enhance product innovation and develop hybrid products that incorporate the characteristics of different ILS structures. The new platform will be managed by SRILIAC (established in 2022 and focused on catastrophe bond investments) and will incorporate the business of SRILIM (providing investors with access to Swiss Re's core natural catastrophe reinsurance portfolio). (2) The integrated ILS asset management business will be led by Mariagiovanna Guatteri, currently CEO and Chief Investment Officer of SRILIAC. Guatteri stated that consolidating all ILS asset management services into a single platform will provide significant advantages for institutional investors, allowing them to access Swiss Re's full range of ILS expertise and products in one place, while also focusing the team's efforts on product innovation. (3) Swiss Re currently manages approximately $5 billion in ILS assets and co-manages a UCITS fund with GAM Investments, with approximately $2 billion in assets under management. This integration is expected to further consolidate its position in the ILS market and attract more funds from institutional investors.

19:06:33

[Mini Labobu prices plummet, second-hand prices of hidden models plummet 56%] ⑴ According to the Beijing Daily on Wednesday, on the evening of August 28, Pop Mart's fourth-generation mini Labobu (79 yuan/piece, in the form of a blind box, the probability of a hidden model is about 1/144) was sold out in seconds. The second-hand premium that night exceeded 90%, and the hidden model price increased by more than 1,000 yuan. ⑵ The price then fell back quickly. Currently, on platforms such as Dewu, the second-hand price of the new regular model has fallen by 20%-30% compared to the first night of the launch, and the hidden model has fallen by 56%. The first three generations have also fallen across the board. Many scalpers have stopped accepting this series, saying that "high-priced goods are difficult to sell, and buyers are waiting and watching." Industry insiders said that this means that the Labobu IP has shifted from being a hot commodity to mature operations. Similar to IPs such as Mickey Mouse, the second-hand price is often lower than the original price.

19:04:18

Is the British Pound Aiming for 1.40? Central Bank Policy and Technical Signals Fuel the Pound. (1) Institutional analysts suggest that the British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) is poised to climb towards 1.40. This expectation is primarily based on the expected narrowing of policy interest rates by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, as well as positive signals on the daily chart. The market generally expects the Bank of England to slow its annual £100 billion reduction in its government bond holdings this week while maintaining its key interest rate at 4.00%, despite recent increased bond market volatility. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday (Beijing time), lowering its benchmark overnight rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aimed at balancing a slowing labor market with moderate inflation. (2) Technical analysis suggests that the GBP/USD bullish cycle has continued, having successfully broken through and achieved a daily close above the 1.3635 Fibonacci level, the 76.4% retracement of the July-August decline from 1.3787 to 1.3143. This technical breakout increases the likelihood that the pair will eventually break through the 2025 peak of 1.3787. A sustained move above this level could lead to a test of the 1.40 level. The 14-day momentum indicator has remained positive since September 5, highlighting the overall bullish upside potential. However, a failure to hold above the 1.3635 Fibonacci level could signal a potential market top.

19:02:41

Crude Oil Under Pressure, Expectations of Rate Cuts Stir Market Nerves] ⑴ Crude oil futures prices fell during midday trading, with Brent and WTI both down 0.8% to $67.91 and $63.98 per barrel, respectively. ⑵ Although the Ukrainian attack on key Russian facilities has raised supply risks for Russian crude oil and the possibility of stricter Western sanctions, these factors have so far failed to provide sustained support for oil prices. ⑶ However, institutional analysts point out that the Federal Reserve's policy tone later in the day could have an impact on the oil market. In particular, if the Fed signals a shift toward rate cuts, this could further weaken the US dollar and boost market expectations for crude oil demand amid the risk of a global crude oil supply glut.

19:02:15

[Focus on Powell's Signal: Where Will the Fed Go with Rate Cuts] ⑴ The market generally expects the Fed to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at its meeting on Wednesday, driven by the recent slowdown in job growth. Last month, Fed Chairman Powell hinted at prioritizing employment over persistent inflation concerns. However, this rate cut may not be unanimous, with some officials potentially favoring a larger cut or even no cut at all. ⑵ A key focus will be whether the Fed signals further rate cuts in the future. In their quarterly economic projections, Powell and his colleagues may signal a total of three rate cuts by 2025, or maintain the two rate cuts projected in June. ⑶ Furthermore, potential dissents at this meeting will warrant attention. At the July meeting, two governors—Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller—dissented from the decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Whether they will dissent again this time, arguing for a more aggressive rate cut, will be a key question. ⑷ The voting patterns of the new governors will also be a key focus. Stephen Milan, the US President's economic advisor, was confirmed by the Senate this week as the newest member of the Federal Reserve Board. Close attention is focused on whether he will support the central bank's consensus or push for more aggressive rate cuts, as some analysts expect.

19:01:33

[Federal Reserve Decision Preview: Expectations of a Rate Cut Rise, Market Focus on Economic Forecasts] ⑴ The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concludes on Wednesday (September 17). The policy statement and summary of economic projections will be released at 2:00 PM Beijing Time, with Fed Chairman Powell's press conference beginning at 2:30 PM. ⑵ Since June, a negative reassessment of labor market conditions and pressure from the President to cut interest rates may have led some participants to favor faster and larger rate cuts in their economic forecasts. This means that, in addition to the policy statement, the updated economic and interest rate projections (dot plot) will be the focus of market attention. ⑶ Earlier that day, US residential construction data for August will be released. Building permits are expected to rise slightly from 1.362 million to 1.370 million annualized, while housing starts are likely to slow from 1.428 million to 1.365 million units. Although mortgage rates have fallen, they remain high for many builders facing weak demand and increased competition for existing homes. ⑷ In addition, the U.S. Treasury will auction 17-week Treasury bills for $65 billion at 11:30 Beijing time.

19:01:30

Spot platinum just broke through the $1,360.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $1,359.60/ounce, down 2.67% on the day. The main Nymex platinum futures contract was last trading at $1,370.5/ounce, down 2.28% on the day.

19:01:00

Spot gold just broke through the $3,660.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,659.89/ounce, down 0.81% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,695.70/ounce, down 0.79% on the day.

19:00:17

South Africa's annual rate of retail sales in July

Previous : 1.60% Forecast : 2.70%

Published Value 5.60%

19:00:06

Brazil's IGP-10 inflation index monthly rate for September

Previous : 0.16% Forecast : 0.34%

Published Value 0.21%

19:00:05

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending September 12 in the United States

Previous : 169.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 174

19:00:03

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending September 12

Previous : 297.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 386.10

19:00:03

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending September 12 week-on-week

Previous : 9.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 29.70%

19:00:02

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending September 12 in the United States

Previous : 1012.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 1596.70

19:00:02

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending September 12

Previous : 6.49% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.39%

18:59:51

[Oil prices are under pressure, and the Federal Reserve's decision may become a key turning point] ⑴ The agency pointed out that Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures prices both fell 0.8% in midday trading on Wednesday, to $67.91 and $63.98 per barrel respectively. Previously, the market focused on the potential supply risks to Russia caused by Ukraine's attack on key facilities and the possibility of more stringent sanctions from the West, but these factors have so far failed to provide sustained support for oil prices. ⑵ In addition, the statement of the U.S. Federal Reserve later on Wednesday may have an impact on the crude oil market. If the Federal Reserve hints that it may turn to interest rate cuts, this may further weaken the dollar and boost demand expectations at a time when global supply is at risk of oversupply, thus having a significant impact on oil price trends.

18:58:49

Green Bond Premium: Retail Investors Are a Key Driver. ⑴ Research released by the Bank of France indicates that the eurozone green bond market experienced significant price volatility between 2016 and 2023. Between 2020 and early 2022, the "green premium" (i.e., the price premium of green bonds over comparable conventional bonds) for green bonds strengthened, reaching an average of -3.7 basis points, implying slightly lower issuance costs. ⑵ The study found that retail investor demand is a key factor driving the dynamics of the "green premium." Since mid-2020, the proportion of retail investors holding green bonds has increased significantly, particularly in bank-issued green bonds, directly driving up the economic and statistical significance of the "green premium." When rising interest rates and deteriorating economic conditions weaken demand, the "green premium" disappears. ⑶ The average "green premium" for green bonds held by retail investors reached -6.4 basis points, indicating a preference for green bonds even when expected returns may be lower. ⑷ In addition, the study confirmed investors' preference for green bonds with greater credibility, such as those that have undergone external review or are issued by banks that have committed to environmental goals. The "green premium" for these bonds is more significant, indicating that the market values reliable green investments. For example, the "green premium" for reviewed bonds is -4.1 basis points, while the "green premium" for bonds from committed banks is -5.7 basis points. ⑸ The study emphasizes the importance of clear standards, such as the EU Green Bond Standard, to ensure that green bonds truly promote environmental goals and maintain investor confidence.

18:57:44

[EUR/USD poised to break through 1.20, with the Fed's interest rate meeting crucial] ⑴ The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen to a four-year high, having previously broken through resistance at 1.1830. The ECB's unchanged interest rate and the Fed's renewed interest rate cuts have created favorable conditions for the euro's upward movement, significantly increasing risk appetite. ⑵ Institutional analysts point to market patterns from 2017 to 2020 as valuable insights into the current EUR/USD trend, suggesting the pair could climb further into the 1.20-1.22 range. ⑶ In the near term, a second consecutive close above 1.1830 would further strengthen bullish sentiment. Market attention is focused on the Fed's interest rate decision, particularly its dot plot and the chairman's press conference remarks, which will be key in determining future policy direction. ⑷ Confidence in the US dollar is currently low, which is expected to limit the euro's potential for a correction and further consolidate its strength.

18:57:07

[Target Price Lowered! Carrier Global faces severe challenges, and future recovery remains uncertain] ⑴ Oppenheimer lowered its target price for air conditioning manufacturer Carrier Global from $85 to $75, a 23% increase from the previous trading day's closing price, but reiterated its "Outperform" rating. The firm noted that weak US residential HVAC demand hurt Carrier's performance, prompting it to lower its outlook and cut costs, with future gains expected to come from tax savings and share buybacks. ⑵ Oppenheimer expects US residential HVAC demand to rebound in 2026 as refrigerant transition challenges ease, housing activity improves, and weather-driven demand continues, while restocking will also support sales recovery. As of last close, the stock had fallen 10.7% this year. ⑶ Data shows that of the 26 brokerages providing ratings, 15 rated the stock "Buy" or higher, while 11 rated it "Hold." The median PT (target price) is $76.

18:56:52

Ukrainian Oilseed Exports Reopen, but New Tariffs Raise Market Concerns (1) Citing analysts, the agency reported that Ukrainian customs have begun processing shipments of rapeseed and beans, subject to a 10% export tariff, but only in small quantities. Oilseed exports had previously been interrupted for approximately two weeks due to confusion in customs documentation. (2) From September 4th to 16th, customs approved the export of only 9,600 tons of soybeans and 23,400 tons of rapeseed. In the first half of September, exports of these crops totaled 34,500 tons of soybeans and 56,900 tons of rapeseed, respectively, representing decreases of approximately 67% and 83% compared to the same period last season. (3) Ukraine is a major exporter of rapeseed and beans, primarily to Europe. The 10% export tariff took effect on September 4th. While it applies to exports from traders, farmers selling their own products are exempt. However, ships currently arriving at ports are loading cargo from both traders and producers, but neither traders nor customs officials have the documentation needed to distinguish between those subject to the tax and those exempted, which could lead to short-term price fluctuations.

18:55:37

[Rate Cut Expectations Rise! Global Bond Markets React Strongly, German Bund Yields Fall] ⑴ Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later today, a prospect that has already led to a slight decline in eurozone government bond yields. The yield on the German 10-year government bond, the benchmark for eurozone bonds, fell 2 basis points to 2.68%. French and Italian government bonds moved in line with German bonds, reflecting the modest fluctuations in US Treasury yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 4.01%, while the interest rate-sensitive 2-year yield hovered around 3.50%. Both US and German 30-year bond yields fell about 2 basis points to 4.62% and 3.26%, respectively. ⑵ Germany's 30-year bond auction yielded positive results, with the bid-to-cover ratio improving compared to the previous auction, demonstrating continued strong demand for this type of bond despite recent pressure on long-term bonds. Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Comments from Fed Chairman Powell and updated economic and interest rate forecasts from policymakers will be key market focus. Analysts believe that an expected rate decision could boost US Treasury yields and the dollar in a market reaction of "buying expectations and selling facts." (3) Institutions point out that the recent dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields indicate that much of the expected impact has been priced in by the market. So far this month, the dollar has fallen nearly 1% against other major currencies. If the Fed unexpectedly delivers a dovish signal, US Treasuries could outperform German Bunds as investors have adjusted their expectations for ECB easing. Money markets are pricing in nearly 70 basis points of cumulative Fed rate cuts by the end of 2026, while also anticipating a 25 basis point cut from the ECB over the medium term. (4) Latest data showed that eurozone consumer inflation was 0.3% in August, in line with expectations. Furthermore, UK inflation remained at 3.8% in August, the highest among major developed economies. While the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, the Norwegian Central Bank, which will hold a meeting on the same day, is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Institutional analysts believe that the latest data has not significantly affected the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year. The yield on the UK 10-year government bond fell 2 basis points to 4.62%.

18:55:22

[Dollar Bulls Prepare for Adjustment Ahead of the Fed Decision] ⑴ Overnight, the US dollar index rose slightly, indicating a correction ahead of the Fed's key interest rate decision. Market data showed that EUR/USD fell 0.24%, USD/JPY fell 0.13%, GBP/USD rose 0.02%, and AUD/USD fell 0.19%. ⑵ In terms of risky assets, the S&P 500 fell 0.06% electronically, Germany's DAX rose 0.18%, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.25%, and the UK's FTSE rose 0.26%. ⑶ Notably, some believe the EUR/USD target price may have exceeded 1.20. USD/JPY rebounded slightly after a pullback, coinciding with the upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The approaching expiration of GBP/USD options at 1.3650 exerted a certain magnetic effect on the exchange rate. AUD/USD consolidated its previous 11-month high ahead of the Fed's decision.

18:53:46

Palm oil surged and then fell. What changes are hidden behind the battle for the 4470 ringgit mark? Details>

18:49:46

[Breaking News! Large Option Expiration Dates May Trigger Forex Market Volatility] ⑴ As of Wednesday, several foreign exchange options contracts will expire at 10:00 AM New York Time (3:00 PM Beijing Time), potentially triggering market volatility. EUR/USD options have the largest expiration dates, with 533 million contracts at 11800, 1.6 billion at 11850, and 1.4 billion at 11900. ⑵ EUR/CHF options expire at 92.75 (360 million), 93.25 (360 million), 93.75 (601 million), and 94.25 (425 million). EUR/GBP options are concentrated at 87.00 (722 million) and 87.25 (242 million). GBP/USD options primarily expire at 136.50 (471 million). (3) 462 million AUD/USD options contracts expired at 0.6650, and 1 billion NZD/USD options contracts expired at 0.5900. (4) USD/JPY options saw significant expiration, with 1.4 billion contracts expiring at 145.70, 451 million contracts at 146.00, and 225 million contracts at 146.25. Furthermore, 947 million contracts expired at 146.85, 327 million contracts at 147.00, and 666 million contracts at 148.00. EUR/JPY options were concentrated at 173.25 (465 million). (5) Previously, institutions noted that the decline in the US dollar has triggered a return of volatility in the foreign exchange market. The concentrated expiration of a series of large-scale option contracts may become a key factor influencing foreign exchange market trends.

18:45:02

[Does the US Dollar Face a "Death Cross"? Multiple Signals Suggest Continued Decline] ⑴ Multiple technical indicators suggest the US dollar is facing severe challenges. Since July, the US Dollar Index's 55-week moving average has fallen below its 200-week moving average, forming a so-called "death cross" signal. The 100-week moving average is currently crossing below the 200-week moving average, further exacerbating bearish sentiment. Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday (Beijing time), the US Dollar Index's low was only 21 points above its 2025 low, indicating continued downward pressure. ⑵ Market analysts believe the dollar's decline may be deeper than expected. The next key support level may be 94.98, well below the 2025 low of 96.37. Data shows that traders who previously held over $18 billion in short positions in July have now significantly reduced their short positions to $5 billion, indicating that market confidence in the US dollar is wavering. ⑶ In addition, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve's easing cycle to end early, and this expectation has a significant impact on the US dollar exchange rate. Analysis points out that traders seem to have generally lost confidence in the US dollar, which further consolidates the US dollar's downward trend.

18:44:23

Russia Responds to EU Energy Supply Cutoff: Sanctions Are Ineffective, Will Not Affect Position] 1. Regarding the EU's plan to accelerate the phase-out of Russian energy, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Wednesday that the move will not affect Russia or force it to change its existing position. He believes European countries mistakenly believe that continued sanctions can influence the Russian Federation's position. 2. Peskov further stated that Russia, committed to defending its national interests, has remained unaffected by these sanctions, a fact amply demonstrated over the past three years. Despite Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian economy has demonstrated resilience, despite challenges such as persistent high inflation and a rising budget deficit, partly due to a significant increase in military spending. 3. Despite sanctions, the EU still imports billions of euros in energy and goods, including liquefied natural gas and enriched uranium, but its imports of Russian oil and gas have declined significantly. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously stated, following a phone call with the US President, that the European Commission would propose an accelerated phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports.

18:42:30

With the US and Canadian interest rate meetings approaching, will the Canadian dollar get a chance to breathe or will the US dollar launch a counterattack? Details>

18:41:08

Palm oil rebounds strongly, driven by export data and stock market volatility. (1) Palm oil futures prices closed higher on Wednesday (September 17th), with the December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rising 0.1% to 4,474 ringgit per ton. This rally was primarily driven by strong export performance, which provided strong support for the market. (2) Institutional analysts note that while weakening soybean oil prices may weigh on market sentiment, palm oil prices are expected to find support above 4,400 ringgit per ton and face resistance at 4,550 ringgit per ton. (3) In addition, the broad rally in Asian and US stock markets also boosted investor sentiment, providing a favorable macroeconomic environment for palm oil prices.

18:38:36

[Dollar's Resilience? Multiple Factors Shake Up Global Markets] ⑴ The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision has global markets eagerly anticipating the extent of subsequent rate cuts, allowing the US dollar to stabilize at a four-year low. US retail sales grew 5% in August, reaching an annualized rate of 5%. This strong data dampened market expectations for a larger rate cut this week, making a 25 basis point cut the mainstream bet. This also led to a slight decline in gold prices. Despite this, long-term US bonds continued to rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching a four-month low of 4.62%, driven by strong demand at a 20-year bond auction. ⑵ In Asian markets, the Hong Kong stock market closed at a four-year high, primarily driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, a weaker US dollar, and gains in technology stocks. Renewed confidence in China's artificial intelligence sector, coupled with news that US President Trump had reached an agreement on TikTok's operations in the United States, boosted the appeal of risky assets. However, Nvidia's stock price fell following reports of weak demand in the Chinese market and news that Chinese regulators had ordered local tech companies to stop purchasing Nvidia AI chips. ⑶ The foreign exchange market experienced significant volatility. Despite the euro hitting a four-year high against the dollar, the dollar stabilized today, with the US dollar index rebounding slightly from a two-month low. Meanwhile, the offshore Chinese yuan continued to strengthen, reaching a new high for the year, outperforming its performance since last year's US presidential election. The yen rose to a one-month high on the heels of the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision. The Canadian dollar remained stable ahead of an expected rate cut by the Bank of Canada, after weak August inflation data reinforced market expectations of a rate cut. The Australian dollar retreated from a one-year high reached the previous day. In the UK, the British pound hovered near a two-month high against the US dollar as Trump's visit and the Bank of England's policy decision approached. UK stocks and government bond prices also strengthened. The UK and the US signed a "Tech for Prosperity Agreement" for cooperation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and civilian nuclear energy, with major US companies pledging £31 billion in investment in the UK. Although UK inflation remained at 3.8% in August, the highest among major developed economies, market expectations for further rate cuts by the Bank of England this year have weakened.

18:38:21

Nordic Electricity Prices Surge as Dry Weather Raises Concerns: (1) On Wednesday (6:10 PM Beijing Time, September 17), the price of Nordic electricity contracts for the first quarter rose to a near three-week high of €52.3 per megawatt-hour, up 2.15% from the previous trading day. This increase was primarily attributed to expectations of reduced precipitation and lower hydropower reserves in the region. (2) Meteorological analysis indicates that precipitation is expected to be 70% to 80% of normal over the next 10 days, with continued influence from a high-pressure system over the next 11 to 15 days, making an improvement in precipitation unlikely. As of Wednesday, available hydropower reserves in the Nordic region for the next 15 days were 3.42 terawatt-hours above normal, down from 3.65 terawatt-hours on Tuesday. Weather forecasts indicate that next week will be dominated by dry weather, with temperatures dropping from slightly above normal to near or below normal. The likelihood of significantly above-normal precipitation before the end of the month is low. (3) As a result, the system price for next-day physical delivery power in the Nordic region surged 248% to €41.83 per megawatt-hour. Meanwhile, Germany's electricity contract price for next year edged up 0.8% to €87.7 per megawatt-hour. The European carbon market's benchmark contract price also saw a slight increase. Wholesale natural gas prices in the Netherlands and the UK remained stable in early trading on Wednesday, amidst stable supply and demand and market attention to new European sanctions against Russia.

18:36:18

Brent crude oil futures fell 1.00% to $67.77 per barrel

18:35:43

Canadian stock index futures consolidate as the market awaits decisions from the two major central banks. ⑴ Futures markets linked to Canada's major stock indices were subdued on Wednesday. Investors are closely watching the key monetary policy decisions to be announced by the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. S&P/TSX Composite Index futures were trading at 1,733.40 points at 10:11 AM (Beijing Time), down from their recent record highs. ⑵ The market generally expects the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve to resume their interest rate cut cycle. Recent data has shown weakening labor markets and slowing economic growth in both countries. Inflation data released on Tuesday showed that Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-on-year in August, below economists' expectations of 2%, further fueling market expectations for a rate cut. ⑶ Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne announced on social media that the release of the federal budget will be postponed from its original October date to November 4. Prime Minister Mark Carney previously indicated that the budget deficit for the 2025/26 fiscal year will be higher than last year, partly due to market concerns about potential tariffs spurred by Trump's tariff rhetoric. 4. Commodity prices saw gold prices halt their upward momentum due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking. Copper prices fell due to weak Chinese demand, while crude oil prices retreated from the previous day's gains. Earlier, the S&P/TSX Composite Index retreated from its record gains on Tuesday, with metal mining and consumer-related sectors performing poorly.

18:34:57

Nymex US crude oil futures fell 1.01% to $63.87 per barrel

18:34:09

Alvaro Santos Pereira, nominee for Governor of the Bank of Portugal: The central bank should be proactive in achieving price stability and ensuring that the inflation target is truly achieved

18:30:10

[Market Await Central Bank Decisions, Canadian Stock Futures Consolidate] ⑴ Canada's major stock index futures were flat on Wednesday (late September 17th, Beijing time), as the market closely watched the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. S&P TSX 300 futures were at 1,733.40, retreating from recent highs. ⑵ The market generally expects the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve to resume their interest rate cut cycle, following data showing weakening labor markets and slowing economic growth in both countries. Data showing Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-on-year in August, below economists' expectations of a 2% increase, further bolstering expectations of a rate cut. ⑶ Canada's Finance Minister stated that the release of the federal budget will be delayed until November 4th. The Prime Minister had previously stated that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2025/26 would be higher than last year, partly due to the impact of US tariff rhetoric. ⑷ In commodities, gold paused its record-breaking rally due to pressure from a stronger US dollar and profit-taking, with market focus shifting to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Copper prices fell due to weak Chinese demand, while oil prices retreated from gains in the previous session. (5) In addition, Air Canada announced that it had requested the cancellation of mediation after crew members voted against an earlier wage agreement. In the previous session, the S&P TSX 300 index retreated from a record high, primarily due to losses in metals, mining, and consumer-related stocks.

18:26:27

[Hidden Secrets in GBP Options: Fiscal Risks Remain] ⑴ Implied volatility in GBP/USD options climbed again this week, in line with the weakening USD. However, it is noteworthy that these increases occurred after a pullback from early September highs. ⑵ The initial increase occurred as sterling fell amid growing UK fiscal concerns. While these concerns have recently eased, leading to a rebound in sterling, their potential impact remains. ⑶ Options expiring through 2026 continue to exhibit volatility and a bearish bias for the pound. Market demand persists for options covering the first and second quarters of 2026, particularly for sterling put options. ⑷ The UK Treasury's budget announcement, scheduled for November 2026, is expected to set the tone for the pound's long-term trajectory. Current data suggests that market participants remain wary of future pound volatility and are seeking tools to hedge against potential downside risks.

18:25:41

[Malaysian Palm Oil Price Fluctuations: Key Data Reveals Market Dynamics] ⑴ As of 18:00 Beijing Time on September 17, 2025, Malaysian palm oil spot market prices showed varying degrees of fluctuation. Specifically, the free on board (FOB) price of refined, bleached, and deodorized palm oil (RBD) at Malaysian ports was quoted at US$1,090.00 per metric ton for September shipment, up US$2.50 from the previous day. The price for October shipment was quoted at US$1,095.00, up US$5.00. The price for November-December shipment was quoted at US$1,095.00, down US$2.50. The price for January-March 2026 shipment was quoted at US$1,110.00, up US$7.50. The price for April-June shipment was quoted at US$1,085.00, up US$5.00. (2) Another key product, RBD palm olein, was quoted at $1,095.00 per metric ton (FOB) at Malaysian ports for September shipment, up $2.50. The price for October shipment was $1,100.00, up $5.00. The price for November-December shipment was $1,100.00, down $2.50. The price for January-March 2026 shipment was $1,115.00, up $7.50. The price for April-June shipment was $1,090.00, up $5.00. (3) Regarding other palm oil product prices, RBD palm stearin was quoted at $1,087.50 per metric ton for September shipment, a significant increase of $15.00. Palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) for September shipment was quoted at $1,037.50 per metric ton, up $7.50. (4) The benchmark delivery price showed crude palm oil (CPO) for September shipment from South Malaysia at MYR 4,440.00 per metric ton, up MYR 20.00. Palm kernel oil (PKO) for September shipment from South Malaysia was quoted at MYR 482.00 per metric ton, up MYR 2.00. (5) It is worth noting that the above prices are provided by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd and are denominated in US dollars or Malaysian ringgit. Some products, such as palm kernel oil, are priced per picogram (60 kilograms). Currently, the market primarily provides offers; bids are mostly unquoted, and traded data is blank. The exchange rate is 1 USD to 4.1865 MYR.

18:24:24

The JD Supermarket's "JD Mooncake Category 2025 Trend Insight Report" shows that consumers plan to purchase an average of over four boxes this year, with a significant increase in purchase intentions as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches. Low-temperature mooncakes performed particularly well in terms of product type, with overall sales growth reaching 73%. In terms of style, Cantonese, Hong Kong, and Suzhou mooncakes remain the most popular, with over 60% of surveyed users preferring Cantonese mooncakes.

18:18:06

Industry insiders: Gold will break through 4000, silver will break through 50, and platinum and palladium will break through 1800 this year Details>

18:16:48

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: The 4-hour Bollinger Band is at 1.3805, with the upper band at 1.3893 and the lower band at 1.3716. After retreating from the double highs of 1.3889-1.3924, the exchange rate has fallen below the middle band and is trading near the lower band. Currently, there is limited distance between 1.3754 and the lower band, indicating a short-term trend of "weakening within the band and retracing to the lower band." Near-term lows of 1.3725 and 1.3730 (and earlier, 1.3721) form a dense support cluster, which, combined with the lower band at 1.3716, forms a critical defensive zone between 1.3725 and 1.3716. The MACD shows a DIFF of -0.0023 and a DEA of -0.0019, both below the zero axis, with the DIFF slightly below the DEA. The histogram is -0.0008, indicating bearish momentum and continued momentum, indicating a continued trend. The RSI (14) reading is 32.9843, approaching but not yet reaching the traditional oversold threshold of 30, indicating that "weakness is not extreme". In terms of resistance, the middle Bollinger band of 1.3805 is the first upward test. If it returns above it, we can talk about the second confirmation of 1.3878/1.3889 and the upper band of 1.3893, and then the previous high of 1.3924. If the support band of 1.3725-1.3716 is lost, the bearish trend may accelerate, and the psychological barrier of 1.3700 will become the next level of observation.

18:14:53

OIS gives 90% certainty of rate cut, but the market is betting on the wording: Canadian dollar bulls and bears are waiting for that sentence Details>

18:13:58

Middle East Crude Oil Benchmark Premiums Continue to Fall, Shifting Regional Supply Structures. ⑴ Spot premiums for Middle East crude oil benchmarks Oman, Dubai, and Murban continued to decline on Wednesday as increased supply flows to Asia from other regions continued to put pressure. Recent strong prices have prompted buyers to turn to alternatives such as Brazilian and West African grades. ⑵ The premium of cash Dubai over swaps fell 22 cents to $2.92 per barrel. Trafigura will deliver a November-loading cargo of Upper Zakum crude to NPI. Mercuria will deliver three cargoes of November-loading Upper Zakum crude each to Gunvor, ExxonMobil, and Vitol. ⑶ Trading data shows that multiple November-loading crude oil contracts were traded in the $70.60 to $70.69 per barrel range. The companies involved include Mercuria, Gunvor, Vitol, Trafigura, PetroChina, ExxonMobil, BP, and Mitsui & Co. ⑷ Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft warned producers of possible production cuts following Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports and refineries. OPEC+ representatives plan to meet in Vienna on Thursday and Friday to discuss how to assess the 22 member countries' maximum production capacity.

18:13:35

[US Plastics Industry Data Perspective: The Dual Effect of Trillion-Dollar Output and Employment Support] ⑴ The US plastics industry will generate $1.1 trillion in economic output in 2024, directly employing 670,000 people and indirectly supporting nearly 5 million jobs. The industry will operate 11,600 facilities, pay $48.6 billion in wages, and produce $380 billion worth of plastic products annually. ⑵ The industry has a significant ripple effect on industries such as automotive, construction, healthcare, and packaging. Related industries will employ 4.8 million people in 2024, paying nearly $400 billion in wages. Annual plastic product exports will reach $64 billion, and the resin trade remains in surplus. ⑶ Regional data shows a clear concentration of the industry: Texas (54,000 jobs/840 facilities), Ohio (49,000 jobs/810 facilities), and Michigan (41,000 jobs/600 facilities) are the three major clusters. Salary levels vary significantly across states, with the average annual salary in Louisiana being $108,000 compared to $66,000 in Ohio. ⑷ The industry's annual investment scale reached US$17.5 billion for equipment renewal and capacity expansion. The American Chemistry Council pointed out the role of plastic manufacturing in material innovation in clean energy, medical equipment and other fields, and emphasized that companies are increasing investment in the circular economy.

18:10:55

[Arab Monetary Fund Doubles Capital! Tens of Billions Prepare for Economic Storms] ⑴ The Arab Monetary Fund announced on Wednesday that it would double its capital to $10 billion, the largest capital increase in the Fund's history. ⑵ Fahd Al-Turki, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Fund, explicitly stated that the capital increase is intended to enhance the institution's ability to support Arab economies in addressing growing economic challenges. ⑶ This move reflects the member states' shared commitment to strengthening the regional financial safety net and enhancing crisis response capabilities in the face of global economic uncertainty.

18:10:19

[EU Issuing Short-Term Debt in a Spree! Yield Curve Inverts Signs] ⑴ The European Commission auctioned three-month Eurobills on Wednesday, achieving an average yield of 1.936%, successfully completing a short-term financing operation. ⑵ The average yield on six-month Eurobills auctioned during the same period was 1.964%, 2.8 basis points higher than the three-month variety, indicating the emergence of a term premium. ⑶ Most notably, the average yield on 12-month Eurobills reached 2.003%, not only higher than the shorter-term variety but also creating a steepening of the short-term yield curve not seen since 2023. ⑷ The total amount raised from the three-term bond auction was not disclosed, but the yields for each maturity were accurate to three decimal places, reflecting the market's accurate pricing of EU short-term debt instruments. ⑸ The 12-month bill yield broke through the psychologically significant 2%, setting a new auction high for the same period this year, indicating a continued rise in investor expectations for the eurozone's short-term interest rate outlook.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3652.74	8.47 (0.23%)
XAG	42.195	0.402 (0.96%)
CONC	63.04	-0.22 (-0.35%)
OILC	67.27	-0.19 (-0.28%)
USD	97.405	0.049 (0.05%)
EURUSD	1.1775	-0.0010 (-0.08%)
GBPUSD	1.3532	-0.0023 (-0.17%)
USDCNH	7.1103	0.0037 (0.05%)

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