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2026-07-16 Thursday

2026-07-19

20:40:11

[Hormuz Storm Resurfaces, Nickel Prices Surge, Triggering Supply Chain Cost Earthquake] ⑴ LME nickel futures surged 3% on Thursday, hitting a more than three-week high since June 23, as geopolitical risks are reshaping the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals through supply chain transmission. ⑵ Renewed concerns about obstructed passage through the Strait of Hormuz have reignited expectations of tight sulfur supply. For producers using high-pressure acid leaching to extract nickel, sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid production, and supply disruptions directly push up the cost curve. ⑶ Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, relies on imports from the Middle East for about 75% of its sulfur. The standoff between the US and Iran in the Strait has substantially disrupted shipping. Analysts point out that Indonesian producers, who were originally at the bottom of the cost curve, are now facing a cost increase of about $10,000 per ton due to soaring sulfur prices, almost reversing their cost advantage. ⑷ The Indonesian government is also seeking to restrict nickel ore quotas for high-pressure acid leaching producers. The market is awaiting the approval results of additional supply applications in the middle of the year. The expectation of policy tightening combined with rising raw material costs is further exacerbating the pressure of supply-side contraction. (5) Overall, the Strait of Hormuz controversy is spilling over from the energy market, eroding profit margins in nickel smelting through sulfur, a key industrial raw material. The steepening cost curve, coupled with tightening Indonesian policies, means that the upside risk for nickel prices remains dominant in the short term. The focus going forward will be on whether the situation in the Strait can ease and the clarification of Indonesia's quota policy.

20:38:12

[Philadelphia Fed Data Explosion: Hidden Concerns and Undercurrents of Inflation Amidst Economic Resilience] ⑴ Thursday's data-packed day began with the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing survey. The July business conditions index surged to 41.4, far exceeding market expectations of 13.0 and the previous reading of 10.3, marking one of the strongest readings of this cycle and signaling a significant acceleration in manufacturing activity. ⑵ The new orders index also jumped to 37.0, up from 27.3 previously, while the employment index rebounded from 7.9 to 10.0. The expansion of all three core indicators suggests that industry volatility following the Middle East conflict is subsiding, and the manufacturing sector is returning to stability at a faster pace than expected. ⑶ Input-side pressures are also evident. The prices paid index climbed further from 53.2 to 53.9, with the continuous rise confirming that the energy cost transmission effect is still unfolding. This echoes the upward inflation risks implied by the oil market, casting further doubt on the narrative of June's price cooling. (4) However, forward-looking indicators are sending warning signals. The six-month business conditions expectation has fallen sharply from 50.2 to 34.4, and the capital expenditure expectation has plummeted from 41.2 to 30.1. Businesses' enthusiasm for future expansion plans has clearly cooled, and policy uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric may be a significant suppressive factor. (5) This divergence between the current strong performance and the weakening expectations paints a complex picture of strong short-term momentum in the manufacturing sector but damaged medium-term confidence. Businesses are becoming more cautious about long-term investment decisions, which contrasts sharply with the strong order and output data. (6) Combined with the improving trend in the previous New York Fed survey, the better-than-expected performance of the Philadelphia Fed data further solidified expectations of robust GDP growth in the second quarter. However, the continued rise in price indicators and the sharp drop in capital expenditure expectations mean that market focus will gradually shift from the resilience of growth to the risk of recurring inflation and the premium for policy uncertainty. (7) After the data release, US Treasury yields faced upward pressure, and the 10-year yield may fluctuate within the 4.58%-4.68% range, moving closer to the upper limit. The assessment of the inflation outlook and geopolitical risks in the subsequent speeches by Fed officials will become the key anchor for market pricing in the next stage.

20:33:31

US retail sales in June (in billions of US dollars)

Previous : 7637.05 Forecast : -

Published Value 7685.53

Previous

20:33:29

US retail sales annual rate in June

Previous : 6.88% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.72%

Previous

20:33:28

US core retail sales in June (in billions of US dollars)

Previous : 6234.44 Forecast : -

Published Value 6250.24

Previous

20:33:26

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index for July

Previous : 14.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 33.70

Previous

20:33:25

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Prices Index for July

Previous : 20.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 27.40

Previous

20:33:22

US June Retail Sales (related to GDP) Month-on-Month Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 0.70% Forecast : 0.50%

Neutral

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

20:33:20

US core retail sales month-on-month in June

Previous : 0.80% Forecast : -0.10%

Gold, Silver, Euro
US Dollar

Published Value -0.20%

Previous

20:33:19

US June Retail Sales Excluding Auto and Gasoline - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

20:33:18

U.S. July Philadelphia Fed 6-month Manufacturing Business Conditions Expectations

Previous : 50.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 34.40

Previous

20:33:16

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Prices Paid Index for July

Previous : 53.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 53.90

Previous

20:33:15

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Employment Index for July

Previous : 7.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 10

Previous

20:33:13

The Philadelphia Fed Capital Expenditure Index for the week ending July 6

Previous : 41.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 30.10

Previous

20:32:19

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing New Orders Index for July

Previous : 27.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 37

Previous

20:32:18

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July

Previous : 10.30 Forecast : 13

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 41.40

Previous

20:32:16

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 11 (in thousands).

Previous : 21.88 Forecast : -

Published Value 21.43

Previous

20:32:15

U.S. continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 4 (in thousands)

Previous : 181.40 Forecast : 181.50

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 180.50

Previous

20:32:14

US retail sales month-on-month in June

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : 0.20%

Neutral

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

20:32:12

US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 (in thousands)

Previous : 21.50 Forecast : 21.70

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 20.80

Previous

20:28:16

[Caixin Futures: Rapeseed Oil Breaks Through 10,000 Yuan Mark, Leading the Rally in Edible Oils; Soybean Meal and Corn Remain Weak] ⑴ Domestic edible oil futures prices diverged on Thursday. The rapeseed oil main contract 2609 performed strongly, closing up 1.02% and breaking through the 10,000 yuan mark to 10,037 yuan per ton, while soybean oil and palm oil main contracts closed down 0.34% and 0.71% respectively. ⑵ Rapeseed oil prices were relatively strong in the short term due to concerns about the impact of high temperatures on rapeseed growth caused by heat waves in Canada's main producing areas, coupled with overnight gains in ICE rapeseed futures and tight domestic spot prices. ⑶ Currently, the overall fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are weak. The peak season for soybean arrivals has not yet passed, with imports reaching 13.5472 million tons in June. Cumulative imports from January to June increased by 1.5% year-on-year. Domestic crushing volume is nearly 10 million tons, leading to continued inventory accumulation of soybean oil. Palm oil is entering its seasonal off-season, with reduced demand and sluggish spot transactions. Fundamental factors continue to suppress the rebound in futures prices. (4) In the spot market, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong fell by 70 yuan to 9,100 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean oil fell by 30 yuan to 8,790 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the price of genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose by 30 yuan to 10,540 yuan per ton. (5) Soybean meal futures are mainly on the sidelines, avoiding chasing high prices. Due to improved expectations for US soybean exports coupled with unfavorable weather in US soybean producing areas, US soybean futures rose, driving up import costs. Domestic soybean oil and soybean meal futures prices followed suit. Domestically, the spot market is still in a phase of inventory accumulation, with relatively high supply pressure. Downstream demand is flat, and the enthusiasm for building inventory is not high. The supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the spot basis remains weak. Recently, the core logic of soybean meal prices revolves around import costs, fluctuating in line with US soybean futures prices. In the short term, attention should be paid to the trend of US soybeans, weather, and Sino-US trade policies. (6) Corn futures are mainly shorting on rallies, as the fundamental loose situation remains unchanged. Traders in producing areas are shipping goods according to market conditions. Changes in the new season's wheat and imported grains are increasing overall grain supply pressure. Downstream demand enterprises are mostly maintaining a just-in-time purchasing strategy. Given the strong supply and weak demand, prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a short-selling strategy on rallies. (7) For live pigs, a short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Recently, the second breeding season has cooled down, spot prices have weakened, and the futures market has corrected, validating previous logic. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended. In the medium to long term, the breeding industry may see some recovery, but the recovery space is limited. Attention should be paid to the strength of policy support. (8) From a month-on-month perspective, due to the decline in sow inventory 10 months ago, the theoretical supply in the second half of the year has decreased month-on-month, but the magnitude is very limited. Coupled with the peak season for pork consumption in the second half of the year (lower temperatures and holidays such as the winter solstice and the Spring Festival), under the pattern of reduced supply and increased demand, coupled with the recent frequent government policies guiding production reduction (the implementation needs to be continuously observed), the breeding industry may see a phased recovery. A short-selling strategy on rallies is recommended.

20:28:13

[Caixin Futures: Escalating US-Iran Conflict Triggers Oil and Chemical Sector Rally, Fuel Oil and Asphalt Follow Crude Oil Higher] ⑴ Crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. News indicated the US continued bombing Iran, stating the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all countries except Iran, but will impose a 20% fee on goods passing through, reimposing a blockade on Iran. Iran, however, stated the Strait remains closed. The sharp rise in international oil prices significantly strengthened several chemical product markets. Due to the difficulty in significantly easing geopolitical tensions in the short term, chemical products may fluctuate at high levels in the short term. ⑵ Fuel oil prices fluctuated at high levels. News indicated the US took action against Iran in response to Iranian attacks on merchant ships, further escalating geopolitical tensions and causing fuel oil to rebound. Previously, the market's pricing for a significant escalation of the situation remained relatively restrained. With the US re-blocking the Strait of Hormuz, short-term supply constraints have significantly increased, suggesting a short-term high-level fluctuation strategy. ⑶ Asphalt prices fluctuated at high levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong was 4355 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. Rising costs led to a rebound in asphalt spot prices, but domestic asphalt supply has continued to increase recently. On the supply side, the total output of domestic local asphalt refineries in August was 870,000 tons, an increase of 154,000 tons month-on-month, representing a growth of 21.5%. (4) On the inventory side, as of July 16, the total inventory of 54 sample asphalt plants in China was 774,000 tons, an increase of 3.3% compared to July 13 and a year-on-year increase of 0.1%; the total inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses in China was 1,004,000 tons, an increase of 1.4% compared to July 13 and a year-on-year decrease of 45.0%. Overall, asphalt is in a weak supply and demand situation, with low inventory levels. The escalating tensions between the US and Iran are the main trading logic in the current market, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term. (5) A bearish outlook for glass: Today, some domestic float glass companies traded flexibly, the spot market fluctuated downwards, and downstream buyers purchased on dips, mainly for immediate needs. This week's float glass inventory was 76.107 million weight boxes, an increase of 107,000 weight boxes month-on-month, representing a growth of 0.14% and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Glass technology upgrades will raise overall industry costs, keeping supply low, but demand expectations remain weak. Medium-term supply and demand pressures persist, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. (6) The soda ash market is also expected to be bearish. Today, the domestic soda ash market saw no significant fluctuations, with prices remaining stable. Plant operations are stable, production and sales are basically balanced, and orders are the primary focus. On Thursday, total soda ash manufacturer inventory was 1.7544 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons from Monday, a rise of 0.25%. Previous spot basis offers were: Hebei warehouse delivery 09-30, Shahe delivered to flat to 09+10, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 09-270 to 300, Hubei warehouse delivery 09-35, and Shandong plant delivery 09+10. The high supply and weak demand are unlikely to change in the medium term, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias.

20:28:12

[Caixin Futures: US CPI Falls More Than Expected, Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Remain in Volatile Pattern] ⑴ Shanghai copper fluctuated. The previously released US June CPI showed a 0.4% month-on-month decline, improving macro sentiment marginally, but geopolitical disturbances persist. Supply remains tight at the mining end, while refined copper supply remains low, with demand primarily driven by immediate needs. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with further guidance from US CPI data and the Fed's interest rate path expected. ⑵ Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. Macro sentiment improved marginally due to the 0.4% month-on-month decline in US June CPI, but geopolitical disturbances persist. Domestic destocking is progressing rapidly, while the expected commissioning of new overseas aluminum production capacity creates a medium- to long-term supply downside. With these mixed factors, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term. ⑶ Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The 0.4% month-on-month decline in US June CPI provided a marginal boost, but geopolitical factors continue to exert downward pressure. The global zinc mine supply remains tight, with persistently low zinc concentrate processing fees providing support. However, demand is characterized by the off-season, and the mixed signals suggest that zinc prices may remain volatile in the short term. (4) Precious metals traded in a volatile manner. On the macro front, the US June CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, the largest monthly decline in four years, and overall inflation data was better than market expectations, leading to a marginal improvement in macro sentiment. However, geopolitical disturbances limited the upside potential for precious metals, and the market still bets that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will each raise interest rates once more this year. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. (5) Lithium carbonate prices fell in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing up 0.07% at 151,600 yuan per ton. The market continued to weaken due to expectations of ample future supply and pressure from warehouse receipts. In the afternoon, inventory reduction data provided support, and short sellers actively reduced their positions, leading to a rebound in prices. (6) On the supply side, domestic production in July saw a slight overall decline. Lithium extraction from salt lakes entered its peak production period, and while raw material supply to lithium mica producers recovered, the increase was limited. Zimbabwean lithium mines resumed shipments, and the raw material shortage before new materials arrived at ports led some smelting companies to reduce their operating rates. In the spot market, warehouse receipts decreased by 1,189 tons to 41,231 tons; the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,000 yuan to 151,200 yuan per ton.

20:26:14

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Under Overall Pressure, Coking Coal Price Cuts Rise] ⑴ The steel market continues its low-level fluctuation pattern. Production continues to decline while demand remains relatively resilient. The supply-demand situation has not deteriorated further, but the expectation of weak demand-driven growth remains unchanged, limiting upward potential. ⑵ In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 rebar futures contracts decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly; both long and short positions in the hot-rolled coil futures contracts decreased, with similar reductions in open interest. Technically, the rebar futures contract closed flat with reduced open interest. The 40-day moving average remains a key resistance level, while the support level has moved up to around 3090 yuan per ton. ⑶ In terms of valuation, steel mill profits continue to be under pressure, with losses widening. However, futures prices are close to the off-peak electricity cost of electric arc furnaces in East China, and the previous undervaluation has been somewhat corrected. Overall, inventory pressure remains, and the weak market conditions limit the rebound's potential. The market awaits the release of positive macroeconomic news, and a breakthrough in either direction is unlikely in the short term. (4) Iron ore prices fluctuated at low levels. On the supply side, BHP's labor negotiations failed to reach an agreement; FMG faced restrictions on deliveries of some products, coupled with a seasonal decline in shipments after the June fiscal year's sales push. Short-term supply-side disruptions provided some support to the market. (5) On the market, the September contract saw reduced open interest and fluctuated before closing lower. The upper resistance level is likely around 770 yuan per ton, while the lower support level remains at 750 yuan. In terms of funds, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with short positions decreasing more significantly. Further changes in fund flows should be monitored. Overall, supply-side disruptions have not completely subsided, but given the overall decline in demand, the upward momentum of the market is expected to be limited, and a fluctuating pattern is likely to continue in the short term. (6) Coking coal prices fluctuated at low levels. On the supply side, safety inspections at production sites remained stringent, and the pace of production resumption in Shanxi coal mines was slow, limiting supply release. On the demand side, pig iron production declined from its high level, coupled with rising expectations of coking coal price reductions. Downstream buyers maintained only essential purchases, and intermediaries gradually lowered prices to move inventory. Market trading was sluggish, and coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly in the short term. (7) In terms of capital flow, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the September contract decreased, with a larger reduction in long positions, indicating insufficient willingness for bulls to actively attack. Technically, the September contract closed lower after a period of consolidation with reduced open interest, facing resistance from the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, while support is expected around 1250 yuan per ton. (8) The driving force of coking coal is weak. On the cost side, the price of coal used for furnace operation continues to weaken, coking plant profits have slightly recovered, and production enthusiasm is still acceptable, with output expected to increase steadily. On the demand side, pig iron production has been confirmed to have peaked, and a subsequent decline is expected. The number of steel mills controlling production continues to increase, further weakening the restocking drive. (9) In terms of valuation, the futures main contract is trading at a large discount to the spot price, and the market valuation is already at a relatively low level. Overall, steel mill losses continue to widen, increasing the willingness to lower raw material prices. The first round of coking coal delivery is approaching, and the market lacks upward momentum in the short term; however, the large basis may limit the downside potential.

20:16:14

Canadian housing starts (in thousands) for the week ending July 6

Previous : 26.14 Forecast : 25.79

Published Value 23.90

Previous

20:02:13

Brazil's May retail sales year-on-year growth rate

Previous : 1% Forecast : 1.15%

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

20:02:12

Brazil's retail sales month-on-month growth in May

Previous : -1.50% Forecast : 0.50%

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

19:50:13

[Indian Rice Export Prices Rise for Third Consecutive Week, Impacted by Weak Monsoon Rains and Floods] ⑴ The export price of 5% broken parboiled rice from India rose to $352-$357 per ton this week, marking the third consecutive week of increases from $348-$352 last week. This was mainly due to the government raising the floor price of its open market sales program and the impact of weak monsoon rainfall on planting progress. ⑵ As of July 10, India's summer rice planting area was only 11.5 million hectares, lower than the 12.6 million hectares in the same period last year. The market had originally expected a reduction in the floor price of reserve grain, but the official increase directly pushed up spot market prices. ⑶ Floods in Bangladesh have damaged at least 28,600 hectares of crops, with rice and seedbeds being the most severely affected. Agricultural officials stated that this is a preliminary assessment, and the full extent of the damage will only be clear after the floods recede. (4) Prices for Thai 5% broken white rice slightly decreased to US$445-450 per ton. The Philippines' suspension of imports of the same grade of rice further suppressed demand, but the gradual entry of dry-season rice into the market is slowly increasing supply. (5) Prices for Vietnamese 5% broken rice remained stable at US$445-450 per ton. Traders in Ho Chi Minh City reported sluggish purchasing activity, with buyers awaiting ample supply from the peak summer and autumn rice harvest at the end of this month to August. (6) The potential impact of El Niño on second-half production remains a core concern for Thai traders, and weather risk premiums may be reintroduced into the Asian rice pricing system at any time.

19:16:13

[US Hellfire Missile Strikes Oil Tanker, Strait of Hormuz Becomes "No-Go Zone"] ⑴ The US military fired a Hellfire missile at an empty oil tanker attempting to reach Iran's Kharg Island. Central Command stated the ship ignored multiple warnings and was struck, marking the beginning of the US maritime blockade of Iran's entry into a phase of forceful enforcement. ⑵ Since resuming the maritime blockade of Iran on Tuesday, the US military has forced two ships to divert and disabled another. Iran has warned it will not tolerate any further US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a red line. ⑶ An Iranian military spokesman warned that if Trump attacks Iranian infrastructure, Iran will strike a wide range of targets in the region, escalating military operations from maritime skirmishes to deeper strikes. ⑷ Shipping data shows that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday dropped to nine, a significant decrease from 13 the previous day, with no very large crude carriers (VLCCs) or LNG carriers passing through, bringing traffic in this crucial waterway to a near standstill. (5) Iran launched retaliatory strikes against US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming to have hit radar, Patriot systems, and fuel depots. The US completed a new round of airstrikes and declared the operation over, expanding the scope of the conflict to multiple countries. (6) Some shipping companies are refusing to participate in US-led escort convoys due to serious security concerns arising from recent Iranian attacks on ships. Ships are being forced to use temporary routes closer to the coasts of Iran or Oman, significantly increasing navigational risks. (7) India has ordered a ban on the deployment of its seafarers to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Two Indian seafarers have been killed in attacks in the past three days. A humanitarian crisis is brewing from the maritime blockade, and the global shipping manpower supply chain faces the risk of disruption.

19:14:13

[German Chemical Industry Association Warns of Irreversible Eastward Shift in Industry, Further Damaging Domestic Recovery Expectations] ⑴ The German Chemical Industry Association (DCIA) predicted on Thursday that output in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors will decline by 1.5% in 2026, stating that weak European demand coupled with the continued shift of growth and investment to Asia is completely undermining the foundation of the industry's recovery. ⑵ First-half production had already shrunk by 3%, and sales fell to €106 billion, a 1% year-on-year decrease. Although producer prices rose by 2%, it was insufficient to offset the profit erosion caused by the simultaneous decline in both volume and price. ⑶ The association's chairman pointed out that demand for chemical products in Europe is at most flat or even partially shrinking, while Asian customers are expanding production and relocating their processes locally, leading to an accelerated export substitution effect in Europe. ⑷ The association had previously refused to release industry forecasts for several months due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, but believes that any recent marginal improvement is insufficient to constitute a comprehensive turning point. ⑸ Although the supply disruptions caused by the conflict briefly benefited some European producers, Asian competitors, who are more reliant on raw material imports, were more severely impacted. However, this effect is completely insufficient to offset the systemic weakening of demand and investment. (6) The divergence between a pessimistic industry outlook and upward profit forecasts by individual companies reflects that German chemical giants are accelerating the transfer of production capacity to the Asian market, and their domestic production networks face the long-term risk of hollowing out.

18:38:11

[Hormuz Conflict Claims Seafarer Lives; India's Emergency Ban Cuts Off Global Shipping Manpower] ⑴ Late Wednesday night, India ordered shipowners, ship management companies, and recruitment agencies to refrain from deploying Indian seafarers to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. ⑵ India is the world's third-largest supplier of seafarers, with over 300,000 sailors serving in global fleets. This ban directly impacts the international shipping manpower market, as the risk of conflict in the Middle East is spilling over from physical assets to human capital. ⑶ Two Indian seafarers have been killed in attacks in the region in the past three days, and several others have died earlier. Shipping regulators say recent attacks have significantly increased the risks faced by seafarers and merchant ships. ⑷ Given the continued deterioration of the security situation in the Persian Gulf, authorities believe it is necessary to strengthen preventative measures to protect the interests of Indian seafarers, while requiring captains to remain fully vigilant about navigational safety and continuously monitor navigational warnings. ⑸ New Delhi has summoned the Iranian deputy ambassador to lodge a strong protest over one of the deaths. The parallel diplomatic pressure and administrative ban indicate that the situation has escalated to a bilateral level. (6) The Indian Seamen's Union stated that over 15,000 Indian seamen remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, questioning the government's plans to rescue these sailors trapped in deadly waters and whose lives are threatened. (7) The dual predicament of being unable to rotate new crew members and evacuate existing ones is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the global shipping industry will face the risk of a labor supply disruption, and freight rates and supply chain disruptions may escalate further.

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