Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-04-08 Wednesday

2026-04-10

20:50:15

[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil - Wait and See, Soybean Meal & Hogs - Bearish on Rallies] ⑴ Palm Oil: Wait and See. The two-week ceasefire agreement reached between Iran, the US, and Israel led to a significant weakening of crude oil and US soybean oil. Palm oil, the most energy-sensitive oil in China, experienced the most significant downward fluctuations, with the P2605 futures contract breaking below the key support level of 9700 yuan, signaling the end of the recent rebound. From a fundamental perspective, the overall supply of edible oils is ample, lacking a clear upward driver. Malaysian palm oil production decreased and inventories were reduced in February, and this trend is expected to continue in March, but current inventory levels remain high. Domestic soybean oil inventories saw a slight decrease, but overall inventories remain high, with exports providing some support for inventory reduction. Rapeseed oil inventories are neutral to low, but Canadian rapeseed is arriving, which will ease supply later. Overall, domestic edible oil inventories are neutral to slightly high, with relatively ample supply. Spot market declines: Guangdong 24-degree palm oil fell by 450 yuan to 9500 yuan, soybean oil fell by 270 yuan to 8840 yuan, and Jiangsu genetically modified rapeseed oil fell by 290 yuan to 9980 yuan. (2) Soybean meal: Shorting on rallies is the main strategy. The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, which in turn has increased the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, imported soybeans have gradually recovered since April. According to shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May may reach 11.5 million tons, and in June, 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (3) Corn: Wait and see. The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price, but the release of policy grain and wheat and rice has a certain inhibitory effect on the upward movement of corn prices. On the demand side, there is a divergence. Feed demand is weak due to the weakening prices of mainstream livestock products, and feed mills and farms are not very active in building up their inventories, resulting in weak feed demand. However, the strong demand for corn deep processing continues to be strong. It is expected that corn prices will remain high and volatile in the short term, but the increase may be limited. (4) Live Pigs: Shorting on rallies is recommended. Live pig spot prices continue to weaken, and are expected to continue declining tomorrow. The main reason is the continued release of short-term supply pressure. Previously accumulated large-weight pigs are gradually being released for slaughter, coupled with a high slaughter weight, resulting in ample market supply. Currently, terminal demand is insufficient, leading to low efficiency and a supply-demand imbalance. Looking ahead, although the theoretical number of live pigs slaughtered in April and May will slightly decrease month-on-month due to signs of second-generation hens entering the market after the Lunar New Year, the current slaughter weight is high, and coupled with the expectation of second-generation hens entering the market, the price trend in April and May is not optimistic. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (5) Eggs: Longing on dips is recommended. The egg market is currently in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, rising corn and soybean meal prices have directly pushed up the cost of raising laying hens, with the feed cost per kilogram of eggs reaching around 3.5 yuan/kilogram. On the other hand, although the current number of laying hens in production remains high, the worst may have passed.

20:49:34

[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil Weakens from High Levels, Most Commodities Trade Weakly] ⑴ Crude Oil: Weakened from high levels. On April 7, 2026 (Eastern Time), the United States, Israel, and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire mediated by Pakistan for 14 days. Negotiations will begin on April 10 in Islamabad. The ceasefire shifted the geopolitical game from "war" to "diplomacy," drastically reversing market logic and causing a decline in geopolitical sentiment. Short-term energy and chemical commodities face downward pressure. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Weakened from high levels. During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil imports accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The temporary ceasefire reached by the United States, Israel, and Iran through Pakistan has eased geopolitical sentiment, resulting in a decline in prices from high levels. ⑶ Glass: Weak. The North China market remained relatively stable, while the Shahe market continued to see low-price transactions, especially large-plate transactions, which saw a continued slight decline in prices. Currently, the industry's daily output has slightly rebounded to 145,500 tons. Overall, orders for deep-processing plants remain weak, and the increase in the number of order days in the industry is limited. Low supply and rising energy costs provide some support for prices, but weak demand expectations suggest prices will fluctuate widely without any significant driver. (4) Soda Ash: Weak. Today, the domestic soda ash market is trending towards stability, with prices firm and transactions generally moderate. Plant operations are not fluctuating significantly, with some individual companies experiencing load fluctuations. Downstream demand is weak, with most transactions occurring on an as-needed basis, primarily for restocking at low prices. Last week, total soda ash inventory was 1.8861 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from Monday, while social inventory totaled over 340,000 tons, an increase of over 30,000 tons. Today, the soda ash capacity utilization rate is 79.11%, with some companies operating at a reduced capacity. Overall, downstream cold repairs are accelerating, and medium-term supply is ample, suggesting a weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic Soda: Weak. Today, the price of low-degree soda ash in Shandong is generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts, and some high-priced companies slowing down shipments, leading to price declines. Last week, the national sample inventory of liquid caustic soda increased by 0.94% week-on-week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, up 1.1% week-on-week. Fundamentals remained largely unchanged, but plant operating rate reductions fell short of expectations. Caustic soda futures are expected to experience increased volatility, with a wide-range, slightly weaker trend. ⑹ Methanol: Slightly weak fluctuations, with downward pressure. Today, the Taicang spot price was 3355, down 280, and the Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2585, down 110. The domestic methanol main market generally fell sharply along with the futures market. The Middle East geopolitical situation eased somewhat, and futures prices significantly retraced previous gains. Port paper and spot prices also fell sharply. However, with continued low imports, the basis strengthened rapidly as futures prices declined. This week, the methanol port sample inventory decreased by 0.85 million tons compared to the previous period, down 0.82% week-on-week, falling short of expectations. The ceasefire shifted the geopolitical game from "war" to "diplomacy," drastically reversing market logic. A cautious approach is needed in the short term.

20:49:00

[Caixin Futures: Precious Metals and Base Metals Show a Slightly Stronger Trend, Lithium Carbonate Shows a Slightly Lower Trend] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Slightly stronger. Significant changes in geopolitical tensions, a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks have greatly eased concerns about inflationary pressures previously caused by soaring oil prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut are expected to be more optimistic, potentially raising copper prices. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Slightly stronger. Significant changes in geopolitical tensions, a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks have greatly eased concerns about inflationary pressures previously caused by soaring oil prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut are expected to be more optimistic, potentially raising non-ferrous metal prices. Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the Middle East production cut crisis has eased, domestic inventories have accumulated, and downstream operations have rebounded. April is expected to enter a destocking cycle, with wide fluctuations expected. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: Slightly stronger. Significant changes in geopolitical tensions, a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks have greatly eased concerns about inflationary pressures previously caused by soaring oil prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut are expected to be more optimistic, potentially raising non-ferrous metal prices. On the fundamental side, smelter maintenance increased in April, and domestic processing rates continued to decline, providing some support for zinc prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. (4) Precious Metals: Fluctuating with a slight upward bias. Significant changes in the geopolitical situation, a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks have greatly eased concerns about inflationary pressures previously triggered by soaring oil prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut are likely to be more optimistic, potentially raising the center of gravity for precious metals. Previous data showed that the central bank added 16 ounces of gold reserves in March, marking the 17th consecutive month of increases, indirectly indicating that the pullback in gold prices has increased demand, providing support for gold prices. Silver inventories remain low, and demand from A1 and new energy sectors will continue to support silver prices. However, caution is still needed. The US has not accepted Iran's 10 ceasefire terms, and Iran may not approve signing the ceasefire agreement, potentially reversing market trends. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Fluctuating downwards. Lithium carbonate futures traded sideways, with the five-day rebound capped at 163,000 yuan. Attention will be focused on the weekly production and sales data to be released tomorrow at noon, which will provide a catalyst for price increases. On the supply side, domestic lithium salt production and inventory increased simultaneously last week, easing the tightness in the spot market. However, there was a lack of upward momentum above 160,000 yuan. On the demand side, fundamentals remained robust. Strong growth in the energy storage sector effectively offset the weakness in the power battery sector. Accelerated electrification of commercial vehicles, coupled with increased battery capacity per vehicle, further boosted the market, providing support for industry procurement below 140,000 yuan. In the futures market, the LC05 contract encountered resistance at the 5-day average price of 163,000 yuan/ton and fell back, with limited upward momentum at higher levels during the session. The spot market weakened, with SMM's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price at 159,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan from yesterday; the futures closing price was 158,320 yuan, a premium of approximately 680 yuan over the spot price.

20:48:10

[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Weakly Fluctuate, Raw Materials Diverge] ⑴ Steel: Weakly fluctuating. Steel supply growth is outpacing demand, with supply pressure emerging (this week's data may be affected by the Qingming Festival holiday, potentially impacting construction material demand). In terms of funding, the main rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts are still in the rollover phase, with the top 20 long positions in the October contract showing a larger increase, indicating a bullish shift in open interest. Technically, the October rebar contract is suppressed by the 40-day moving average, with resistance at 3140 and support at 3080-3100. Overall, demand growth is narrowing, and inventory pressure remains. Short-term price fluctuations may be driven by costs, but the peak demand season has not yet materialized, valuations are neutral to low, and downside potential is limited. ⑵ Iron Ore: Medium-term short position, shorting opportunities available. Production at some coal mines is limited due to accidents or relocation of working faces, while Mongolian coal clearance remains high. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, while intermediaries are actively shipping, resulting in mixed price movements. In terms of funding, the main coking coal contract is in the rollover phase, with both long and short positions decreasing among the top 20 holders of the 05 contract, and the reduction in long positions being more significant. Technically, the 05 contract has formed a V-shaped pattern, with the 1143 level as the resistance to watch. Overall, weakening demand and potential delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract, but power plants may start restocking around the middle of the month, coupled with a slight correction in the basis, the market may turn to a sideways trend in the short term. In terms of operation, the strategy remains to sell the near-month 05 contract on rebounds to the resistance level. (3) Coking Coal: Sideways. Production is limited in some coal mines due to accidents or relocation of working faces, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains high, with market sentiment continuing to cool down. Downstream coking plants are purchasing on demand, and intermediaries are actively shipping, resulting in stable to slightly lower prices. In terms of funding, the rollover of the main coking coal contract is slow, and the top 20 holders of the 05 contract have not changed much in terms of long and short positions. Technically, the 05 contract is suppressed by the moving average, and the short-term resistance level has shifted down to the 1125-1140 level. In summary, weakening demand and potential delivery pressures are suppressing near-month contracts, but power plants may begin restocking around mid-month, potentially limiting the downside for coal prices. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, avoiding chasing short positions, and being wary of volatility risks from the US-Iran conflict. (4) Coking Coal: High-level fluctuations. Lower coal costs have led to improved profits for coking plants, resulting in relatively stable production; pig iron production continues to increase, and steel mills are mostly maintaining just-in-time purchasing, resulting in a stable supply-demand structure. Valuation-wise, the 05 contract is trading at a discount, and there are still expectations for a second round of price increases for coking coal, providing valuation support for near-month prices. Overall, valuation limits downside potential, and short-term price movements will mainly follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Slightly weak fluctuations. A temporary ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran has eased tensions in the Middle East, and crude oil prices have plummeted, weakening expectations of cost support and leading to a valuation reshaping. From a fundamental perspective, ferrosilicon manufacturers are reducing production, and downstream purchases are maintaining just-in-time restocking, resulting in a relatively healthy supply-demand balance. Technically, the manganese silicon 05 contract has fallen with reduced open interest, and may test the 40-day moving average support in the short term. In terms of funding, both long and short positions in the top 20 holders of the May contract decreased, with short positions seeing a larger reduction.

20:02:21

[Iranian Ceasefire Triggers Market Rollercoaster, US Treasuries Surge Amid Hedging Pressure] ⑴ Iran and the US reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, just two hours before a potential large-scale US attack. This news caused a sharp drop in US Treasury yields across the board. The 2-year yield plummeted 11.6 basis points to 3.717%, and the 10-year yield fell 10.9 basis points to 4.234%. The yield curve continued to steepen, with the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields widening by 4 basis points to 112.8 basis points. ⑵ The swap market opened with violent fluctuations, with spreads across all maturities widening significantly. The 2-year swap spread was at -17.25 basis points, and the 10-year swap spread was at -43.75 basis points. The steepening of the yield curve coincided with the plunge in money market rates. Investors in a Fed rate cut were significantly reduced, with SOFR futures leading the market, further exacerbating the steepening of the swap spread curve. (3) Oil prices plummeted by over 13%, marking the largest single-day drop since the pandemic began. Brent crude oil closed at $94.17, gold plunged over 16%, the US dollar index fell 1.04% to 98.823, and global stock markets rebounded sharply, with the Nikkei 225 surging 5.39% and the German DAX rising 4.72%. (4) The rally in US Treasuries encountered resistance in the London afternoon session, as the overnight rebound attracted traders to hedge against today's $39 billion 10-year Treasury bond rollover, leading to a selling bias in the morning. However, large short covering by CTAs before the CME opened quickly pulled prices back up, and the continued decline in oil prices provided support for the bond market. If yields remain low, large borrowers who have already released their Q1 earnings reports may take advantage of the situation to issue bonds, increasing swap purchases.

20:01:33

Chile's CPI monthly rate for March

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0.90%

Published Value 1%

Previous

20:00:08

Mexico's consumer confidence index for March - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 44.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 44.10

Previous

20:00:05

Mexico's consumer confidence index for March - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 44.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 44.10

Previous

19:42:53

[Following the Ceasefire: Hundreds of Tankers Remain Stranded in the Strait of Hormuz; Shipping Industry Calls for Operational Details, Two-Week Window Deemed "Too Short"] ⑴ Following the two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran, shipping companies seeking to restore tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz are urgently seeking clear logistical guidance, while refiners are inquiring about new crude oil loading arrangements. ⑵ Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that if attacks on Iran cease, Iran will cease retaliation and provide safe passage, in coordination with the armed forces and taking into account technical limitations. ⑶ Data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that as of Tuesday, approximately 187 fully loaded tankers carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were stranded in the strait. Li Daizhen, Global Head of Research at Fertmax FZCO, stated that even under normal conditions, clearing the backlog could take more than two weeks, and the 14-day window is simply insufficient to restore the confidence levels needed to completely eliminate the uncertainty premium. (4) Jacob Larsen, Chief Safety and Security Officer of the shipping association Bimco, stated that the industry is awaiting technical details from both the US and Iran, and leaving the Gulf without prior coordination would be riskier and undesirable. (5) Two shipbrokers indicated that shipowners are likely to remain cautious until vessels are allowed into the Gulf, but inquiries for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) carrying Middle Eastern crude to Asia surged on Wednesday, with several Asian refiners, including Reliance Industries, Indian Oil Corporation, and CNOOC, as well as traders such as Glencore and Total Energy, seeking capacity. (6) Maersk stated that a ceasefire could create opportunities for vessels to pass, but has not yet provided sufficient maritime security guarantees. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is coordinating with Iran to ensure the safe passage of two of its oil tankers, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs hopes that all parties will work together to promote the early restoration of normal trade across the Strait. (7) From a psychological perspective, the initial relief from the ceasefire announcement is quickly being replaced by operational uncertainty. The game between shipowners and charterers is focused on the key issue of "who gets through first." Ships from countries with friendly relations with Iran are expected to be among the first to transit, while most blue-chip shipowners may wait several days to confirm the ceasefire's effectiveness. (8) Future focus will be on the technical clearance details to be released by the US and Iran, as well as the actual safety status of the first transit vessels. This will determine the release schedule of hundreds more ships and the speed of energy supply chain recovery.

19:34:03

[Trump Proposes Joint Venture with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, While Rejecting Iran's Retention of Uranium Enrichment Capabilities] ⑴ In an interview with ABC News on Wednesday morning, US President Trump stated that following Tuesday's announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the US might seek to establish a joint venture with Iran to secure the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ When asked whether he would allow Iran to charge tolls for shipping through the strategic waterway, Trump indicated that he was considering operating it as a joint venture, a way to secure the strait and deter threats from other parties. ⑶ Trump also stated that he would not allow Iran to retain any uranium enrichment capabilities, despite Iran's repeated claims that it would not relinquish its freedom to do so. He emphasized that there would be no enrichment activities. ⑷ From a psychological perspective, the joint venture proposal signals a potential shift in US-Iran relations, moving from military confrontation to a framework of commercial cooperation. If implemented, it would significantly reduce the long-term risk premium of the strait. However, fundamental disagreements on uranium enrichment mean that negotiations still face significant obstacles. ⑸ Future focus will be on the specific structural design of the joint venture and the progress of negotiations on toll arrangements and restrictions on nuclear activities. This will determine whether the energy shipping market can form stable medium- to long-term expectations.

19:30:50

[SOFR futures surged due to the oil price plunge, leading the gains; EIA outlook suggests upside risks to interest rate path] ⑴ Following the ceasefire news, SOFR futures initially surged by as much as 18 basis points before retreating. Currently, contracts across all maturities are up 5 to 11.625 basis points, leading the gains, while spot oil prices fell 16.3% to $94.50 per barrel. ⑵ US Treasury yields also rose, with the three-year yield leading the decline, falling 10.9 basis points to 3.761%, down 13.6 basis points from yesterday's bidding level of 3.897%. ⑶ The EIA's outlook projects average Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices at $96 and $87 per barrel, respectively, higher than the March forecasts of $79 and $74. This forecast already factored in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens sometime in April. The upward revision of the long-term forecast is due to the depletion of expected global inventory buildup caused by the recent strait closure and production stoppages by some producers. (4) The white paper shows that the SOFR futures opening prices for June and September 2026 correspond to SOFR rates of 3.655% and 3.625%, respectively. Based on the 10-day moving average of SOFR at 3.64%, the June contract implies a 6% probability of an interest rate hike, and the September contract implies a 6% probability of an interest rate cut. (5) From a psychological perspective, the market's reassuring reaction to the ceasefire drove interest rate futures sharply higher. However, the EIA's oil price outlook suggests that the central energy cost has systematically shifted upward. The coexistence of probabilities of interest rate hikes and cuts in forward interest rate pricing reflects increased divergence among investors regarding the central bank's policy path. (6) Future focus will be on the demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond auctions this week, as well as adjustments to oil price and inventory forecasts in subsequent EIA monthly reports. These will provide further clues for the repricing of the interest rate market.

19:27:36

Wheat futures fell 3% to a two-week low on ceasefire news, with improved US weather and expectations of increased Russian production adding pressure. ⑴ Chicago wheat futures fell 3% on Wednesday, while corn fell nearly 1%, after US President Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Agricultural markets typically follow energy prices as grains and oilseeds see increased use for biofuels. ⑵ The wheat market also faced additional pressure from improved US weather and expectations of increased Russian production. Federal Reserve analyst Dennis Voznesensky said that geopolitical tensions have been influencing wheat prices over the past month, and today's price drop seemed quite sudden, a result of the ceasefire announcement. ⑶ The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 3% to $5.8025 per bushel, hitting a two-week low of $5.7725 per bushel during the session; corn fell more than 0.8% to $4.455 per bushel; and soybeans rose slightly by 0.1% to $11.505 per bushel. ⑷ In Europe, the benchmark milling wheat contract on the Euronext Paris exchange fell below €200, down 2% to €199 per tonne. Rainfall forecasts for the Great Plains this week eased concerns about drought-stricken crops, further pressuring prices. (5) Commodity data company Argus on Tuesday raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast for Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, to 88.7 million tons from 86.5 million tons previously. (6) In terms of trading psychology, the energy price plunge triggered by the ceasefire news quickly spread to the agricultural market. Coupled with signals of improved supply fundamentals, wheat became one of the most significantly affected commodities in the receding geopolitical risk premium. However, investors are also awaiting the USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday for clearer directional guidance. (7) Future focus will be on the actual realization of Russian wheat production and the evolution of spring planting weather in the United States. These two factors will determine the further trend of wheat prices after the ceasefire news is digested.

First
Previous
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
...
50
Next

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4797.08

77.90

(1.65%)

XAG

 76.139

2.085

(2.82%)

CONC

 98.21

3.80

(4.02%)

OILC

 95.65

-0.51

(-0.53%)

USD

 98.719

-0.311

(-0.31%)

EURUSD

 1.1709

0.0047

(0.40%)

GBPUSD

 1.3443

0.0052

(0.39%)

USDCNH

 6.8300

-0.0019

(-0.03%)
Risk Disclosure
Trading stocks, currencies, commodities, futures, bonds, funds or cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. These risks include the loss of part or all of your investment capital, so trading is not suitable for all investors. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, use your own judgment, and consult a qualified advisor. The content on this website is not specifically directed at you, nor have we considered your financial situation or needs. Information provided on this site may not be real-time or accurate. Prices shown on this website may be provided by market makers rather than exchanges. You are solely responsible for any trades or financial decisions made based on the information from this site, and you must not rely on such information. We make no guarantees regarding any information on the website and assume no responsibility for any trading losses caused by the use of this information. Use, storage, copying, display, modification, dissemination or distribution of the data contained on this site is prohibited without prior written permission. All intellectual property rights in the data provided on this site are reserved by the respective data providers and exchanges.

TURBOFIN TECHNOLOGIES PTY LTD Copyright © 2025 FXBus Ltd