Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

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London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2025-11-03 Monday

2025-11-04

11:09:07

The Bank of England is likely to slow its rate-cutting pace this week, which began last year, and will probably keep current rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday. This would be the first pause since its policy shift, although recent weaker inflation and wage data have prompted some analysts to expect another rate cut. The Bank of England's last action was in August, when it decided to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4% by a narrow 5-4 majority. Since then, Governor Bailey has stated that the previous pace of "one rate cut per quarter" has become more uncertain. However, September data showed that inflation did not rebound as expected, while wage growth slowed and unemployment rose, reigniting market expectations for a rate cut in November. Currently, financial markets believe there is about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut at this meeting. This expectation has also led institutions such as Goldman Sachs to change their stance and predict action in November. However, most economists surveyed still expect the central bank to remain on hold until 2026. ING economist James Smith predicts that this meeting will again result in a 5-4 split, but the result will be to keep rates unchanged. He believes that whether action will be taken in December remains uncertain, and will depend in part on the budget announced by Chancellor Reeves on November 26. Nomura economist George Buckley also acknowledges the complexity of the decision-making process, but he expects the meeting to pass a rate cut by a 5-4 vote, with President Bailey and two vice presidents likely joining the two external committee members who have previously voted in favor of rate cuts.

10:58:38

[Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng: Promote the replacement of consumer terminals such as AI mobile phones and AI computers, and accelerate the research and application of new-generation intelligent terminals such as humanoid robots and brain-computer interfaces] Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published an article entitled "Accelerating the Promotion of Artificial Intelligence Empowering New Industrialization" in the magazine *Party Building*. Li Lecheng stated that the Ministry will deeply implement the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" strategy. Manufacturing is the foundation of a nation and the basis for its strength, and it is the main battlefield for the application of artificial intelligence. The Ministry will improve the policy system, study and issue implementation opinions on the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" special action, deploy intelligent transformation tasks for key industries, key links, and key areas, and release and implement guidelines for the application of artificial intelligence in manufacturing enterprises. The Ministry will accelerate the intelligent transformation of key industries, formulate guidelines for the intelligent transformation of key manufacturing industries, regularly carry out "deep empowerment" activities, and build online and offline supply and demand matching platforms. The Ministry will promote the intelligent upgrading of the entire manufacturing process, deeply embed artificial intelligence technology into the core links of production and manufacturing, and expand application scenarios such as intelligent assisted design, virtual simulation, and fault early warning. Accelerate the replacement of consumer terminals such as AI smartphones and AI computers, expedite the research and development and application of next-generation intelligent terminals such as humanoid robots and brain-computer interfaces, and promote the deep integration of large-scale models with intelligent connected new energy vehicles, CNC machine tools, and other technologies. Expedite the design, development, testing, and deployment of intelligent agents, and explore a multi-agent collaborative ecosystem.

09:58:53

[Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: By 2027, a number of leading water-saving equipment enterprises and manufacturing single-item champions, as well as specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises will be cultivated] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Water-Saving Equipment (2025-2030)," which states that by 2027, breakthroughs will be achieved in water-saving equipment for key areas such as water supply, water use, and recycling. A number of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights will be mastered, and technologies and equipment such as efficient circulating cooling, high-end membrane separation, and intelligent water management will be industrialized. The water-saving equipment standard system will be further improved, and a number of leading water-saving equipment enterprises and manufacturing single-item champions, as well as specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, will be cultivated. The establishment of a pilot-scale platform for water-saving equipment will be promoted, forming a good ecosystem for the coordinated development of large, medium, and small enterprises and the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain. By 2030, a comprehensive and technologically advanced water-saving equipment system will be built, the supply capacity of high-performance, high-efficiency, and high-reliability water-saving equipment will be continuously enhanced, and the manufacturing of water-saving equipment will reach the world's advanced level.

09:45:01

China's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for October

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : 50.90

金银 石油

Published Value 50.60

Previous

09:36:48

[USD/JPY Fluctuates at High Levels as Market Digests Fed Rate Cut Expectations] 1. During Monday's Asian session, USD/JPY fluctuated at high levels, currently trading around 154.10, not far from the over eight-month high of 154.44 reached last week. Although market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December remain, recent hawkish signals from several Fed officials have raised doubts among investors about the timing of the rate cut, providing some support for the dollar. 2. Data from the interest rate futures market shows that traders currently expect a 68% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, a significant drop from 93% a week ago. This change reflects a clear division within the Fed regarding whether to initiate a rate cut in December, weakening the previous one-sided market expectation of an imminent easing policy. 3. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent statements on future rate hikes have become more cautious, softening his hawkish stance and putting pressure on the yen. Although the Bank of Japan hinted at the possibility of a rate hike in the short term and stated that it would monitor wage growth and the yen's exchange rate to determine the timing, this expectation did not provide effective support for the yen. 4. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair faces resistance in the 154.40-45 range, while support levels are seen at 153.65 and 153.25-30. With the Japanese market closed for a holiday, the pair fluctuated between 153.95 and 154.24 during the Asian trading session. Market analysts believe that verbal intervention by Japanese authorities may temporarily slow the dollar's rise, but is unlikely to fundamentally reverse the current trend.

09:14:45

[Obama Calls on Democrats to Fight Back Against Trump's "Lawlessness and Recklessness"] Former US President Barack Obama attended campaign rallies in Virginia and New Jersey on Saturday, campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial candidates and delivering a scathing critique of the Trump administration in his speeches. At a rally in Norfolk, Virginia, Obama stated bluntly, "Our country and our policies are in a dark place," condemning the White House's daily displays of "lawlessness, recklessness, and utter madness." He specifically criticized Trump's tariff policies and domestic military deployments, while also criticizing congressional Republicans for failing to effectively restrain the president's behavior and expressing surprise at the rapid "kneeling" of business leaders and academic institutions in pandering to Trump. That evening, at a campaign event in Newark, New Jersey, Obama continued his criticism of the White House, using the metaphor of "every day is Halloween, but there are only pranks and no candy," and satirizing Trump for continuing White House renovations during the government shutdown. Current polls show that Democratic candidate Spanberg maintains a significant lead in Virginia, while the gap between his Republican opponent and his supporter, Sherrell, in New Jersey remains in single digits. It is worth noting that although New Jersey is a traditionally blue state, the race has been narrowing in recent years, with the Republican Party steadily closing the gap in local elections, making this election a focus of attention.

08:58:38

[OPEC+ Suspends Production Increases, Boosting Market; International Oil Prices Rise] 1. International oil prices rose significantly during Monday's Asian trading session. This increase was mainly due to the latest production decision reached by OPEC+ over the weekend. The organization decided to suspend its planned production increases in the first quarter of next year to address persistent market concerns about oversupply, injecting short-term confidence into the crude oil market. 2. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are currently up 0.45%, trading around $61.25 per barrel, having earlier touched a high of $61.48. The price rebound reflects the market's positive response to OPEC+'s supply management measures, easing the downward pressure previously caused by weak demand and increased production. 3. Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, pointed out that OPEC+'s cautious approach in the face of potential weak demand and supply uncertainty in the first quarter is reasonable. She further emphasized that Russian energy supply remains a key variable affecting the global oil market, especially against the backdrop of US sanctions against its oil companies and continued attacks on related energy facilities. 4. Although OPEC+ is attempting to stabilize the market through supply adjustments, multiple factors continue to limit the upside potential of oil prices. Surveys show that most analysts maintain a stable outlook for oil prices in 2025, believing that rising OPEC+ production targets offset weak demand, limiting significant price fluctuations. The current forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 is $67.99 per barrel. 5. Meanwhile, US oil and gas production reached a record high in August. This data exacerbated market concerns about oversupply and highlighted that while OPEC+ strives to balance the market, the production dynamics of other oil-producing countries also significantly influence oil price trends.

08:31:23

Australia's seasonally adjusted annual rate of private building permits for September

Previous : -3.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

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