2026-11-05 Thursday
2026-11-06
11:56:28
[Indonesia Launches Tiered Issuance of US Dollar Islamic Bonds, First Public Issuance of US Dollar Bonds Since MSCI Warning] (1) The Indonesian government launched a tiered issuance of US dollar bonds on Thursday; this is the first time the Indonesian sovereign government has publicly announced the issuance of US dollar bonds since MSCI warned last month that it might remove Indonesian stocks from its global indices. (2) According to sources, the Indonesian government is marketing a tiered Islamic bond issuance with maturities of 3, 5, and 10 years, with initial price guidance of approximately 5.7%, 6.1%, and 6.55%, respectively; the yield on the 3-year bond issuance is approximately 5.7%. (3) Indonesia's economy is worth US$1.4 trillion; MSCI previously stated that Indonesia's efforts to address related market issues were far from sufficient, and the country might be downgraded two levels to the same investment category as markets such as Zimbabwe. Since then, Indonesia has received widespread market attention. (4) Data shows that the last time the Indonesian government issued US dollar bonds in the global market was in May of this year, with an issuance size of US$2 billion, divided into two tiers.
11:54:10
[Goldman Sachs: Midterm Election "Blue Tsunami" May Significantly Impact AI and Data Center Regulation, But Development Suspension Expected to be Short-lived] (1) Goldman Sachs says the US midterm election results are a "blue tsunami" that could have a significant impact on artificial intelligence and data center regulation. (2) Strategists including Jenny Grimberg wrote in a report that given the Democrats' much larger-than-expected majority in the House and Senate, they expect the Democrats to use the upcoming fiscal deadline to seek policy concessions, especially limiting the war with Iran, removing some tariffs, and overturning recent spending cuts. (3) Consistent with this assessment, oil risk premiums have declined; however, Goldman Sachs believes there is a downside risk to Middle Eastern oil supply, which could push risk premiums up again. (4) Goldman Sachs also believes that the Democratic victory at the state and local levels will have a significant impact on artificial intelligence and data center regulation; its equity analysts believe this could negatively impact some US utility companies and independent power producers. (5) However, Goldman Sachs expects the importance of data center issues to "diminish out" in the future, and any development suspension will be short-lived.
11:52:07
[Demand at Japan's 10-year government bond auction is robust, bid-to-cover ratio slightly below average, tail spread widens] (1) Demand at Japan's 10-year government bond auction on Thursday was largely in line with the average of the past 12 months, indicating that market demand remains robust despite recent yield declines. (2) The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.21, lower than the previous auction's 3.76 and slightly lower than the past 12-month average of 3.24; the tail spread, which measures the distribution of bid prices, was 0.25, higher than last month's 0.02. (3) With signs of recovery in domestic demand in Japan, coupled with inflows of funds from overseas investors supporting long-term government bonds, the benchmark 10-year government bond yield has fallen from a high of 3.115% in late September to 2.79%. (4) This auction comes at a time when US Treasury yields have fallen after the US midterm elections; the Democratic Party's victory in controlling both houses of Congress has eased market concerns about further expansion of US fiscal spending. (5) Meanwhile, international oil prices have also fallen as market expectations for the end of the Iran war have increased.
11:17:58
[Dollar Continues to Weaken, Approaching Over One-Month Low; US Midterm Elections Eliminate Uncertainty, Boosting Global Markets] 1. The dollar index continued its decline in Asian trading on Thursday. The overwhelming victory of the Democrats in the US midterm elections eliminated a major uncertainty in the market, leading to a rise in global stock markets and weakening the safe-haven demand for the dollar. The dollar index is currently down 0.23% to 101.27; it had already fallen 0.36% in the previous trading day, hitting a low of 101.21, a new low since September 30. 2. Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank, said the election results increased the likelihood of a political deadlock in Washington and reduced market expectations for Trump to restart military strikes against Iran. He believes that the recent weakness in the bond market and the dollar can largely be attributed directly to this change. 3. Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate path have not changed much. CME Group FedWatch data shows that traders expect an 81.2% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting, up from 77.4% in the previous trading day. The ADP report showed that the U.S. private sector added 86,000 jobs in October, higher than economists' expectations of 69,000; the government's non-farm payrolls report will be released on Friday. 4. The dollar fell 0.3% against the yen in Asian trading on Thursday to around 157.93. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting reinforced market expectations for further interest rate hikes, with one member suggesting there was still room for faster increases. 5. The pound rose 0.16% against the dollar in Asian trading on Thursday to around 1.3491. Overnight, the pair rose as high as 1.3502, a more than seven-week high, and is on track for its sixth consecutive day of gains. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates later on Thursday to combat inflationary pressures from soaring energy costs, but this may dampen market expectations for multiple rate hikes next year.
11:11:08
[Gates Warns: Trump Administration's Inaction on AI Regulation Could Lead to Biological Weapon Risk] (1) At the “Future of Artificial Intelligence” summit in the UK, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates pointed out that the Trump administration's ineffective regulation and inaction on artificial intelligence could lead to the creation of biological weapons more dangerous than the COVID-19 pandemic if advanced models are freely available. (2) Gates emphasized that efforts by many countries to build regulatory frameworks have stalled due to the White House's inaction, and said: “Without the participation of the United States, the action will be of little effect. How many tragedies will have to happen before they change their stance?” (3) In the face of rapid technological development, Trump has always opposed strong government intervention, not only denigrating the G20 AI guidelines as a “globalist conspiracy”, but also advocating for self-regulation by technology companies. (4) Gates said that in the face of fierce competition among many giants, industry self-regulation is ineffective and non-governmental intervention is unlikely to break the deadlock; he urged the US government to develop model safety standards and lead the construction of a large-scale monitoring network covering air, sewage and blood to intercept potential infections at the source. (5) Gates revealed that OpenAI and Anthropic will both release new models this year, and two more major launches are scheduled for 2027; “the model itself going out of control” is no longer a distant hypothesis, but an imminent real threat. (6) In addition to calling for stronger third-party audits, Gates also advocated for taxing the super-rich in the context of artificial intelligence profoundly reshaping society, and for accelerating the application of AI in medical fields such as drug development.
11:04:52
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): Latest data as of November 5, 2026 shows that the interest rate has decreased over 7 periods, while it remained unchanged over 1 period. The overnight SHIBOR was 1.263%, down 0.2 basis points. The largest change was in the 1-week RMB SHIBOR, down 0.6 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and changes over the past ten working days, please refer to the chart created by FX678). Other periods show: 1-week SHIBOR at 1.323%, down 0.6 basis points; 2-week SHIBOR at 1.339%, down 0.4 basis points; 1-month SHIBOR at 1.377%, down 0.3 basis points; 3-month SHIBOR at 1.398%, down 0.2 basis points; 6-month SHIBOR at 1.418%, down 0.1 basis points; and 9-month SHIBOR at 1.428%, down 0.1 basis points. The one-year Shibor rate was 1.437%, unchanged.
10:54:05
[Post-Midterm Elections: Billionaire Political Crackdown and Wall Street Rally, AI Data Center Prospects Become Focus] (1) Following the Democratic Party's landslide victory in the midterm elections, some of America's wealthiest donors attacked each other over record election spending, while others warned that the results could threaten the AI boom; Wall Street welcomed the political deadlock and reduced uncertainty, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3%, the S&P 500 rising 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.4%. (2) Branson criticized tech entrepreneurs and hedge fund managers for spending billions of dollars to influence elections and called for campaign finance reform; the Republican senator and gubernatorial candidate in Texas supported by Musk lost, despite his $224 million investment in the state, nearly half of his $474 million national political donations. (3) Hoffman called for money to stay away from politics, accusing Musk of spending huge sums to keep "authoritarian clowns" in power; Alex Soros celebrated the Democratic victory, saying "the world changed yesterday." (4) Billionaire investors are concerned about the impact of the Democratic Party's landslide victory on the AI boom: Ackman warned against slowing down AI development; Palihapitia said "the only way to destroy the AI boom is to destroy data centers." (5) Texas Governor-elect Inojosa had proposed halting new data center construction; Gerstner warned that at least 10 to 15 gigawatts of expected AI data center capacity may not be available by 2027, and Ives estimated that 10% of planned US data centers would not proceed; Lisa Su acknowledged increasing headwinds to AI expansion and urged tech companies to demonstrate the benefits of data centers to the community. (6) Wall Street may also find opportunities in the slowdown: new data centers reduce or increase the value of existing facilities and ease the spending burden on tech giants; large tech stocks surged on Wednesday, adding more than $750 billion to their market capitalization at one point, while small data center operators reliant on debt plummeted.
10:47:47
[White House Postpones Hearing on Fed Governor Cook's Dismissal to December 14] (1) White House officials said Wednesday evening that the White House Commission has postponed the hearing with Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, originally scheduled for Thursday, to December 14. The postponement was at Cook's request, and it is unclear whether she will attend. (2) The hearing aims to investigate whether allegations of Cook making false statements in mortgage applications are sufficient grounds for Trump to dismiss her. Trump attempted to dismiss Cook in August 2025 but was unsuccessful. (3) Cook's lawyer, Lowell, previously stated that the fairness and objectivity of the commission must be addressed before the hearing; and Cook will be attending a financial and monetary policy conference in Europe before December to fulfill her duties as a governor. (4) Trump established the commission in early October, whose members include Kevin Hassett, Andrea Lucas, and Keith Sandlin, to investigate and report on whether there are any grounds for dismissal as referred to in the Supreme Court's June ruling. (5) Cook denies wrongdoing, arguing that the mortgage statement allegations are just a pretext and that the real reason is that she refused to vote for an interest rate cut as Trump demanded. (6) In June, the Supreme Court ruled to temporarily block the dismissal of Cook, but did not determine whether Trump ultimately had the right to dismiss the Federal Reserve governor; the ruling stated that Cook had not been given due process and could remain in office while the proceedings continue. Trump's establishment of the commission may be aimed at demonstrating to the Supreme Court that Cook had received due process.
10:39:39
A chart showing the latest China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) data (November 5, 2026): The 3128B cotton price index was 16,778 yuan/ton (3128B is the benchmark for cotton futures delivery recognized by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange), up 45 yuan/ton, or 0.27%. The 2227B cotton price index was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton, or 0.30%, and the 2129B cotton price index was 17,085 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, or 0.26%. FX678's specially created chart provides a summary of the latest 30 trading days of the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index). (The China Cotton Price Index is published once per trading day, quoting prices in three denominations: 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) stipulates that the benchmark delivery commodity for cotton futures is domestic cotton of '3128B' grade. The spot market cotton transaction price needs to be converted to the price of 3128B cotton using a specific formula. For example, research reports will state the price of cotton from a certain origin, and then calculate its equivalent price in 3128B.)
10:31:33
[Former UN Expert: Both US Parties Constrained by Military-Industrial Complex and Lobbying Groups, Calls for International Peace Conference] (1) Retired independent UN expert and prolific commentator Alfred de Sayas, commenting on Tuesday's US midterm election results, pointed out that both parties are "constrained by the military-industrial complex and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) lobbying group"; the problem with the US two-party system is that most of the time voters can only choose between "bad" and "worse". (2) He emphasized that both Republican and Democratic candidates advocated war instead of diplomacy, supported Wall Street rather than ordinary people, and favored Israel over Palestine; very few people will focus on the needs of the American people and address key issues such as education, public health, taxes, infrastructure, and job creation. (3) Although the UN has "always been ineffective" in dealing with crises such as Iran, Gaza, and others, it is now "more needed than ever" to prevent these crises from escalating further. (4) He worried that unless the US and Israel agree to make diplomatic concessions, Iran may face a series of potential "apocalyptic scenarios" in the future, including the possible use of nuclear weapons and the escalation of the conflict into a global crisis. (5) He stated that in such a desperate situation, either one side would take the offensive and trigger World War III, or the other side would accept reality, cut its losses, and back down. (6) Alfred de Saias called for an international peace conference. He believed that now was the time for the “global majority,” BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the Non-Aligned Movement to call on all parties to exercise restraint.
10:26:13
[Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to 4% on Thursday, joining major central banks in tightening for the first time in three years] (1) Affected by the US-Iran conflict pushing up inflationary pressures, the market expects the Bank of England to raise its benchmark interest rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday, the first rate hike since August 2023; the vote is expected to be 7 to 2. (2) The UK inflation rate rose to 3.5% in September, higher than the central bank's 2% target and previous forecasts; the Bank of England is the last major developed country central bank that has not yet raised interest rates. (3) The US-Iran conflict has kept oil prices around $100 per barrel and natural gas prices three times the pre-conflict level. The longer the conflict lasts, the greater the impact of energy prices on the economy may be. (4) The UK economy is more resilient than expected, possibly due to spending in the AI sector; however, there are still few signs of a significant "secondary" impact of inflation on wage agreements. (5) Central bank policymakers are divided on the threat of inflation: some officials want to see signs of a second round of effects first, while others are worried that raising interest rates is too late. (6) The market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates at least three more times next year after raising rates this month; however, most economists expect a more moderate tightening, with PIMCO predicting only one more rate hike in February next year.
10:19:45
[El Niño pushes Asian rice prices to near two-year high, global production may decline for the first time in over a decade] (1) Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, the benchmark price of Asian rice has risen to the highest level in nearly two years, which may further exacerbate food inflation pressures; farmers in many parts of Asia are currently in the rice harvesting season. (2) India, the world's largest rice exporter, is experiencing a drought that is more severe than in previous years, hindering crop production; the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that global rice production will decline for the first time in over a decade this season. (3) Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association shows that as of Wednesday, the price of 5% broken white rice in Thailand, another major exporter, rose to $499 per ton, the highest since December 2024; Chicago brown rice futures prices have risen by more than 80% this year. (4) While rice prices are rising, prices of other major grains such as corn and wheat are falling. (5) Although it will take time for the rise in wholesale prices to be transmitted to the retail market, some regions have already shown signs of rising costs; data released by the Philippine government on Thursday showed that rice prices in the Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, rose 7.8% year-on-year in October. (6) The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also predicts that global rice production will decline in 2026-2027.
10:19:24
[Gold Prices Continue to Rise to Two-Week High Amid Democratic Victory and Rising Expectations of Ending the Iran War] 1. Gold prices continued their upward trend in early Asian trading on Thursday. As of 10:14, spot gold rose as much as 1.92% to $4138.03 per ounce, hitting a more than two-week high. This followed the largest single-day gain since mid-August overnight, primarily due to the continued weakening of the US dollar to a more than one-month low following the Democratic Party's victory in the midterm elections. Furthermore, rising expectations of ending the Iran war led to a sharp drop in oil prices to a near two-month low, easing inflation concerns. 2. The Democratic Party's overwhelming victory in the midterm elections eliminated some market uncertainty, and investors are assessing potential changes in regulatory policy. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector job growth in the US further expanded in October. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders expect an 83% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. 3. On the geopolitical front, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Washington's hostility towards Tehran will not change due to changes in the US party landscape or concessions from Iran, and that those who believe the situation will change have "seriously misjudged the situation." 4. Citigroup on Wednesday set a 0-3 month price target of $4,500 per ounce for gold, believing that gold prices still have significant upside potential if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia eases as expected by the end of the year. 5. However, Eurozone inflation rose to a three-year high in October, potentially strengthening expectations of a December rate hike by the European Central Bank; the market widely expects the Bank of England to raise rates for the first time in three years on Thursday. Investors are awaiting Friday's US non-farm payroll report for clues about the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
10:18:19
【US Crude Oil: Range-bound trading, buy on dips, sell on rallies】 (1) Reasons for analysis: The easing of US-Iran negotiations squeezed out the geopolitical risk premium, putting downward pressure on oil prices. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz limited the decline. The weakening US dollar provided some support. In the short term, US crude oil is in a consolidation phase after a correction. The technical battle between bulls and bears intensified, awaiting new drivers to guide the direction. (2) Key areas to watch: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index, US non-farm payroll data (3) Resistance: 86.00, 85.00, 84.00 (4) Support: 87.60, 88.00, 90.00
10:18:16
【Spot Gold: Oscillating Downward, Sell on Rallies】 (1) Reasons for Analysis: The Democratic victory suppressed the US dollar, and the gold price rebounded sharply to around 4125. However, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in December is still high, and the rise is constrained. After the short-term bullish momentum is released, there is a need for a pullback. Overall, it is a correction in a downtrend. We are waiting for the US non-farm payroll data to be released. (2) Key Focus: US Treasury yield, US dollar index, geopolitical situation, US non-farm payroll data (3) Resistance: 4150, 4200, 4230 (4) Support: 4100, 4060, 4000;
10:11:41
[Democrats' sweeping victory in both houses of Congress triggers sector rotation in Asian stock markets: chip stocks plunge, auto and consumer stocks rise] (1) The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in both houses of the U.S. Congress has triggered sector rotation in Asian stock markets. (2) On Thursday, memory chip giant SK Hynix fell more than 9%, and Samsung Electronics fell 7%, dragging down the South Korean KOSPI index by more than 5%. (3) Meanwhile, automakers such as Toyota and Honda saw their share prices rise by about 5%, pushing the Japanese TOPIX index up by 1%; other consumer companies, such as Uniqlo's parent company Fast Retailing, also saw their share prices rise. (4) As the Democratic Party uses voters' concerns about artificial intelligence to gain support in the midterm elections, market concerns about potential delays in data center construction are growing. (5) In addition to adopting a defensive investment strategy when technology stocks fall, investors are also buying auto stocks, betting that automakers may benefit if U.S. President Trump relaxes tariff policies. (6) Tim Waterler, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said that funds continue to flow out of the chip manufacturing sector, and the rotation trend is very obvious; the market is punishing those sectors most vulnerable to potential regulatory hurdles, and the semiconductor industry is one of them.
09:45:59
[South Korea expands anti-piracy mission to near the Strait of Hormuz, providing military support to the region for the first time] (1) According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean officials said on Thursday that South Korea plans to expand its anti-piracy mission in the waters near Somalia, extending its operations to the waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and will deploy additional military forces, including maritime patrol aircraft and explosive ordnance disposal teams. (2) This will be the first time South Korea has provided military support to this conflict-ridden region. (3) Since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February, the South Korean government has been weighing whether to participate in international efforts to keep this strategic waterway open, and related discussions have continued for months; Seoul had previously effectively rejected a request from its ally, the United States, to provide support for military operations against Iran. (4) Officials said that after adjusting the deployment authorization of the "Cheonhae Unit" currently operating in the Gulf of Aden, its area of operation will be extended northeastward to cover the waters south of Oman in the Arabian Sea; this expansion is expected to double the unit's operational radius to about 1,930 kilometers. (5) South Korea will also deploy P-8A maritime patrol aircraft to support the destroyers, which will take turns escorting merchant ships and crew through the Red Sea and maintaining maritime security in the region.
09:35:14
[UK Introduces New Tiered Permanent Residency Framework: Baseline Raised to 10 Years, 3 Years for High-Income Residents, 5 Years for Caregivers, and Up to 30 Years for Illegal Immigrants] (1) The UK government recently announced a package of immigration reforms, raising the uniform waiting time for legal immigrants applying for permanent residency from five years to ten years, and implementing differentiated arrangements for different groups. (2) Home Secretary Mahmoud officially launched a new tiered settlement framework, dividing permanent residency applications into three paths: the high-income path, where those with an annual salary of over £125,000 (approximately RMB 1.115 million) and meeting the requirements can apply for permanent residency in just 3 years; the caregiver path, where those who meet the requirements of language proficiency, no criminal record, and continuous payment of National Insurance retain their eligibility to apply for permanent residency for 5 years; and the illegal immigration path, where those who illegally cross the English Channel by small boat must wait up to 30 years before they can apply. (3) This is the latest step by the UK government in continuously tightening its immigration policy against the backdrop of a surge in immigration numbers after Brexit. The government stated that since Brexit, the number of immigrants has remained high, and it is expected that a large number of low-skilled workers and their families will reach the original permanent residency threshold in the coming years. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the rules to address voters' concerns about the scale of immigration. (4) The initial tightening plan was opposed by unions and the Labour Party itself. The government subsequently reserved a special channel for care workers. Mahmoud emphasized that those who make greater contributions will be approved faster, while those who violate the rules will face rejection or long waiting times. (5) Many businesses have expressed concern, warning that stricter settlement conditions may further amplify the labor shortage in the UK service industry. External analysis suggests that this adjustment is also a political measure taken by the Labour Party to cope with the competitive pressure from the Reform Party and to reconcile different voices within the party.
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