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2025-12-17 Wednesday

2025-12-20

19:43:12

The French government stated that the EU's automotive package is positive.

19:42:25

[Tencent Upgrades Large-Scale Model R&D Architecture: Three New Departments Established, Former OpenAI Researcher Yao Shunyu Appointed to Core Positions] ⑴ On December 17th, Tencent recently completed an organizational restructuring of its large-scale model team, officially establishing the AIInfra Department, AIData Department, and Data Computing Platform Department to further improve its R&D system. ⑵ An internal announcement released that afternoon revealed that Vinces Yao will serve as the Chief AI Scientist in the "CEO/President's Office," reporting directly to Tencent President Martin Lau; he will also concurrently serve as the head of the AIInfra Department and the Large Language Model Department, reporting to Lu Shan, President of the Technology Engineering Group. ⑶ Although Tencent did not disclose Vinces Yao's Chinese name and resume in the announcement, it is understood that he is Yao Shunyu, who joined Tencent several months ago—a scholar who graduated from Tsinghua University's Yao Class and Princeton University, and previously served as an OpenAI researcher, a core contributor to the organization's first intelligent agent products, Operator and DeepResearch projects.

19:41:40

Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez: The European Parliament's postponement of the ban on the sale of gasoline and diesel cars is a historic mistake.

19:41:32

French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France will strongly oppose any EU attempt to forcefully push through the Mercosur agreement.

19:40:29

[CICC Plans Share Swap Merger with Dongxing and Cinda Securities; A-Shares to Resume Trading Tomorrow] On December 18, CICC (601995.SH) announced that it is planning a share swap merger with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities. The swap price for CICC A-shares is RMB 36.91 per share, and each A-share held by shareholders of Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities will be exchanged for 0.5188 CICC A-shares. Trading of the company's A-shares has been suspended since November 20, 2025, and will resume on December 18. This plan is subject to approval by the company's board of directors, shareholders' meeting, and relevant regulatory authorities before implementation.

19:39:45

Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke: The Norwegian central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and remain cautious about rate cuts, which is likely to have little impact on the Norwegian krone, given that inflation remains high and recent data shows the country's economy is growing at a normal pace. The central bank has little reason to significantly revise its forecasts or change its performance expectation of a gradual rate cut each year for the next three years. "I don't expect any major surprises, therefore, the krone's momentum will also be limited."

19:38:06

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday that the Russia-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty establishes a special status for cooperation between the two countries and sets the direction for cooperation in various fields over the next 20 years.

19:32:56

The European Parliament on Wednesday approved the EU's plan to phase out imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027, clearing the penultimate legal hurdle before the ban takes effect. The ban still requires formal approval from a meeting of EU ministers, expected early next year.

19:32:28

The CEO of Indonesia's Tenantara sovereign wealth fund said the fund will build 13 towers in Saudi Arabia for hotel and shopping mall projects, with a total investment of up to $800 million.

19:25:32

[Eurozone Markets Reduce Bets on Rate Hikes; Italian-German Bond Spread Hits 16-Year Low] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields fell ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting as markets reduced their bets on future rate hikes, with the impact of Governing Council member Schnabel's hawkish comments fading. ⑵ Money market pricing indicates that the market's perception of a rate hike by March 2027 has fallen from over 50% to around 35%, reflecting a significant correction in market expectations. ⑶ Analysts believe that Schnabel's stance may not represent a broad consensus within the ECB, and a strong euro and external trade policies could inject deflationary pressures into the Eurozone, pushing the central bank to a more dovish stance. ⑷ An unexpected decline in German business confidence and doubts about the actual effectiveness of German fiscal stimulus have weakened expectations of economic overheating and tightening policies, providing support for the bond market. ⑸ The spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields narrowed to approximately 65 basis points, hitting a 16-year low, indicating a continued improvement in market risk appetite for bonds from peripheral Eurozone countries.

19:16:21

[UK Industrial Orders Decline Slows, But Weak Demand and Cost Pressures Remain Major Headwinds] ⑴ Data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows that the industrial orders balance rose to -32 in December, up from -37 in November, marking the best performance since September and a narrowing of the decline. ⑵ The decline in export orders also hit its smallest since July, while business expectations for output over the next three months rose to their highest level since September. ⑶ Analysts pointed out that uncertainty ahead of the November 26 budget announcement had dampened activity, and with the dissipation of this factor, business expectations for 2026 have improved slightly. ⑷ Nevertheless, the current orders balance remains well below the long-term average of -14, indicating that the industrial sector as a whole is still in contraction territory. ⑸ Major headwinds to growth remain, including persistently weak demand, high energy and labor costs squeezing profit margins, and continued uncertainty surrounding key policies and the global environment that continues to undermine confidence.

19:15:49

[Strong Demand at Russian Treasury Bond Auction, 2038 Bonds Oversubscribed] ⑴ The Russian Ministry of Finance auctioned OFZ bonds maturing in 2038 on Wednesday, with a final issuance (allocation) size of 26.594 billion rubles. ⑵ Market demand was strong, with total bids reaching 59.298 billion rubles, an oversubscription rate of over 2.2 times. ⑶ The auction raised 25.395 billion rubles, with a closing yield of 14.61%, and an average yield of 14.61%. ⑷ The high yield reflects the risk premium demanded by the market for Russian sovereign debt, but the strong demand also indicates its continued attractiveness in the domestic capital market. ⑸ This successful issuance helps the Russian government achieve its domestic financing targets and provides a new benchmark for the pricing of long-term government bonds.

19:10:51

The Central Bank of Russia reported that household inflation expectations for December were 13.7%, up from 13.3% in November.

19:08:39

[Geopolitical Risks Drive Brent Crude Oil Rebound Over 2%] ⑴ Brent crude futures rose over 2% on Wednesday, returning above $60 a barrel. Prices rebounded from near five-year lows in the previous session after the US ordered a "complete and thorough" blockade of sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela. ⑵ However, broad downward pressure, including weak demand and progress in peace talks, may limit the upside for oil prices. ⑶ Progress in the peace agreement has increased expectations of a possible easing of restrictions on Russian oil shipments as markets prepare for oversupply. Ample supply has made this year difficult for oil prices due to OPEC+ steadily restoring shut-down production and increased output from non-OPEC producers. Crude oil prices are still on track for their worst annual performance in seven years.

19:07:25

The expected difference in CBI industrial output in the UK for December

Previous : 7 Forecast : -

Published Value 19

19:05:46

[Indian Stocks Fall for Third Consecutive Day] ⑴ India's Bombay Stock Exchange Sentiment Index (SSE) closed slightly lower on Wednesday at 84,559.65 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline. Market sentiment remained weak, primarily due to concerns about continued foreign capital outflows and uncertainty surrounding potential trade agreements. ⑵ Traders also weighed Tuesday's mixed US jobs report, which exacerbated economic concerns but left the future path of interest rates uncertain. ⑶ The heavyweight financial sector fell 0.5%, with major components HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank both declining by nearly 1%. On the other hand, State Bank of India was a key gainer, rising by more than 1.5%.

19:04:39

[Eurozone Labor Cost Growth Slows in Q3 2025] ⑴ Hourly labor costs in the Eurozone grew by 3.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a slowdown from 3.6% in the previous quarter and below the preliminary estimate of 3.5%. ⑵ Wage and salary growth slowed to 3.0%, compared to 3.7% in Q2 2025; while non-wage costs, including social contributions and benefits, grew by 4.0% year-on-year, higher than 3.4% in the previous quarter. By sector, hourly labor costs in the business sector grew by 3.3%, with construction growing by 4.3%, industry by 3.3%, and services by 3.2%; the growth in the non-business sector was more moderate, at 3.1%. ⑶ Among the major Eurozone economies, Germany's labor costs grew by 4.0%, a slowdown from 4.3% in Q2; Italy's grew by 2.8%, compared to 3.8% previously; Spain's grew by 2.1%, compared to 3.7% previously; and the Netherlands' grew by 3.8%, compared to 6.5% previously. France's labor costs grew by 1.7%, slightly faster than the previous 1.6%.

19:04:03

[Eurozone November 2025 Inflation Rate Revised Down to 2.1%] ⑴ The Eurozone's annual inflation rate for November 2025 was revised down to 2.1% from the preliminary estimate of 2.2%, unchanged from the October reading. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose 2.4% year-on-year, a slower pace than October's 2.5%; non-energy industrial goods prices rose 0.5%, a smaller increase than October's 0.6%. ⑵ Service prices rose 3.5% year-on-year, an increase larger than October's 3.4%; energy prices fell 0.5% year-on-year, a smaller decline than October's 0.9%. The lowest annual inflation rates were in Cyprus (0.1%), France (0.8%), and Italy (1.1%); the highest were in Estonia (4.7%) and Croatia (4.3%). ⑶ Germany's inflation rate was 2.6%, while Spain's reached 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% month-on-month, the first monthly decline since January, in line with forecasts. The annual core inflation rate remained stable at 2.4% for the second consecutive month.

19:03:45

[Eurozone Core Inflation Remains at 2.4% for Third Consecutive Month] ⑴ Eurozone core inflation remained at 2.4% for the third consecutive month in November 2025, in line with preliminary estimates. This figure excludes food, energy, and tobacco prices. ⑵ Since hitting a near four-year low of 2.3% in May 2025, the region's core inflation rate has remained stable, supporting the European Central Bank's statement that further interest rate cuts are unlikely. ⑶ On a monthly basis, core consumer prices fell by 0.5% in November, consistent with earlier estimates.

19:03:29

[Mauritius's Trade Deficit Hits 10-Month High in October 2025] ⑴ Mauritius's trade deficit widened to 22.1 billion Mauritian rupees in October 2025, higher than the 19 billion Mauritian rupees in the same period last year, marking the largest trade deficit since December 2024. Imports increased by 9.7% year-on-year, reaching 31.2 billion Mauritian rupees. ⑵ The increase in imports was mainly driven by a 41.0% increase in purchases of food and live livestock, a 5.1% increase in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, and a 1.9% increase in machinery and transport equipment.

19:02:54

[Eurozone Wage Growth Slows to Three-Year Low] ⑴ Eurozone wages grew by 3.0% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, the lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, slowing from 3.7% in the previous quarter. ⑵ Among the region's major economies, wage growth slowed significantly: Germany's wages grew by 3.6% year-on-year, lower than the 4.2% in the second quarter of 2025; France's grew by 1.3%, compared to 1.4% previously; Italy's grew by 2.4%, compared to 3.4% previously; Spain's grew by 2.0%, compared to 3.4% previously; and the Netherlands' grew by 3.6%, compared to 6.3% previously.

19:02:34

[Malta's Inflation Rate Remains Stable in November 2025] ⑴ Malta's annual inflation rate in November 2025 was 2.5%, unchanged from the previous period. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than October's 3.3%; housing and utilities prices rose 1.7%, compared to 1.6% previously; alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices rose 1.8%, compared to 1.7% previously. ⑵ Medical prices rose 2.9% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% previously; restaurant and hotel prices rose 4%, compared to 3.7% previously; entertainment and cultural prices rose 3.6%, compared to 3.3% previously. Meanwhile, deflation in clothing and footwear eased, falling 1.7% year-on-year, a smaller decline than October's 2.9%. ⑶ On the other hand, transportation costs rose 2.2% year-on-year, a slower increase than October's 3.2%; furniture, home furnishings, and routine household maintenance costs rose 1.2%, compared to 1.3% previously; miscellaneous goods and services prices rose 3.5%, compared to 3.8% previously. Furthermore, deflation in communication prices intensified, falling 5% year-on-year, a larger drop than the 4% decline in October. (4) On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7% in November, rebounding from a 0.9% monthly decline in the previous month.

19:00:45

[South African 10-Year Bond Yields Continue to Fall, Approaching Lows Since 2020] ⑴ South African 10-year bond yields further declined to around 8.35%, remaining near levels not seen since 2020. A more moderate inflation outlook has boosted market expectations for further interest rate cuts next year. ⑵ South Africa's overall inflation rate slowed to 3.5% in November from 3.6% in October, below market forecasts of 3.6% and approaching the South African Reserve Bank's newly set 3% inflation target. Furthermore, short-term inflation expectations fell to a record low in the fourth quarter, opening the door to a possible interest rate cut on January 29. ⑶ South African bond prices have risen sharply in recent months, with yields falling sharply in the strongest rebound since the end of the pandemic. The South African Reserve Bank's quarterly report noted that stable domestic consumer prices, lower repurchase rates, a stronger rand, and reduced uncertainty regarding international trade tariffs were key drivers of the yield decline. ⑷ A market-friendly medium-term budget update and the country's removal from the Financial Action Task Force's grey list further boosted positive market sentiment.

19:00:05

The difference in CBI industrial orders for the UK in December

Previous : -37 Forecast : -

Published Value -32

18:58:21

[Belgium's Construction Output Declines for First Time in Five Months in October 2025] ⑴ Belgium's construction output fell 0.5% year-on-year in October 2025, the first decline in five months, following a stagnation in September. The decline was mainly driven by a further contraction in civil engineering activity, which fell 2.6% year-on-year, a larger drop than September's 2.0%. ⑵ Meanwhile, growth in specialized construction activity slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, lower than September's 1.0%. In contrast, the decline in house construction narrowed, falling 0.8% year-on-year, an improvement from September's 2.2% decline. ⑶ On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, construction activity rose slightly by 0.4% in October, rebounding from a 1.2% month-on-month decline in the previous month.

18:43:15

[German Bonds Underperform This Year; Institutions Say Current Levels Offer Relative Value Attractiveness] ⑴ Some institutions point out that German government bonds have underperformed in 2025 due to the market's failure to meet previous expectations for large-scale German fiscal spending, making current prices attractive to investors. ⑵ A senior portfolio manager at the institution stated that given German bonds' underperformance relative to US Treasuries in 2025, they have demonstrated relative value. ⑶ This view anticipates that next year's government bond supply will be well absorbed by the market at current yield levels. ⑷ The German Financial Services Agency plans to announce its 2026 borrowing plan on Thursday, which will provide crucial information for the market to assess supply pressures. ⑸ This analysis argues that the valuation adjustment resulting from unmet expectations has created a more attractive entry point for German bonds, especially considering the yield spread compared to US Treasuries.

18:40:14

[Portugal Actively Manages Debt, Repatriating Over €1 Billion in Bonds Through Three Reverse Buybacks] ⑴ The Portuguese National Debt Management Authority (IGCP) repurchased €365 million in bonds maturing in July 2026 through reverse buyback operations. ⑵ Simultaneously, it also repurchased €566 million in bonds maturing in April 2027. ⑶ In addition, it repurchased €115 million in bonds maturing in October 2027. ⑷ This move represents the Portuguese government's proactive management of its debt structure, aiming to optimize its debt repayment cash flow in the coming years. ⑸ By repurchasing short- and medium-term bonds, Portugal helps smooth debt maturities and may reduce future refinancing risks and interest expenses.

18:38:44

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, with rate cuts most likely postponed until 2027. Details>

18:38:43

[German Bonds Underperform This Year; Institutions Say Current Levels Offer Relative Value Attractiveness] ⑴ Some institutions point out that German government bonds have underperformed in 2025 due to the market's failure to meet previous expectations for large-scale German fiscal spending, making current prices attractive to investors. ⑵ A senior portfolio manager at the institution stated that given German bonds' underperformance relative to US Treasuries in 2025, they have shown relative value. ⑶ This view anticipates that next year's government bond supply will be well absorbed by the market at current yield levels. ⑷ The German Financial Services Agency plans to announce its 2026 borrowing plan on Thursday, which will provide key information for the market to assess supply pressures. ⑸ This analysis argues that the valuation adjustment resulting from unmet expectations has created a more attractive entry point for German bonds, especially considering the yield spread compared to US Treasuries.

18:38:32

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1920.00/oz mark, last trading at $1919.65/oz, up 5.36% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1949.9/oz, up 3.97% on the day.

18:38:02

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,310.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,309.88/ounce, up 0.18% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,340.00/ounce, up 0.18% on the day.

18:37:51

The Qatar Stock Exchange will be closed on December 18 for a national holiday.

18:36:34

[Silver Surges Above $65 to Record High, Unemployment Data Ignites New Bullish Momentum in Precious Metals] ⑴ Silver prices surged above $65 per ounce on Wednesday, hitting a record high, reaching a high of $66.52 during the session, with a year-to-date gain of 128%. ⑵ Gold prices rose in tandem, with spot gold reaching $4318.99 per ounce, a year-to-date increase of 65%, while platinum hit a more than 17-year high. ⑶ This surge was directly driven by weaker-than-expected US employment data. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, reinforcing market bets on further interest rate cuts next year. ⑷ Analysts point out that silver possesses both investment and industrial attributes; its tight supply and strong demand for green energy provide a clear bullish logic for speculative funds. ⑸ The entire white metals sector (silver, platinum, palladium) collectively surged, and the market is awaiting the US CPI and PCE inflation data to be released later this week to further confirm the interest rate path.

18:30:59

[German Bond Gains Retreat as Markets Confused by Overreaction to UK Inflation Data] ⑴ German bond prices have retreated to levels only slightly higher or even flat compared to Tuesday's settlement price, despite no significant selling pressure. ⑵ Traders are questioning why the market reacted so strongly to weak UK inflation data, even though UK bonds themselves performed strongly (still half a basis point higher than the settlement price). ⑶ In contrast, US Treasuries performed slightly weaker, with the 10-year US-German spread widening to 132.7 basis points, nearly 1.5 basis points wider than at the European close. ⑷ However, traders revealed that selling pressure in the US Treasury market itself was not significant, and the widening spread reflected more the difference in relative performance. ⑸ Current market conditions indicate a lack of clear unidirectional drivers in major bond markets, with investors reassessing the breadth and duration of the impact of major data releases.

18:30:48

[Southern European Bond Markets Diverge, 10-Year Italian Bonds Significantly Premium Over Portuguese Bonds] ⑴ After directional adjustments for yield spreads, 10-year Italian government bonds appear overvalued compared to 10-year Portuguese government bonds. ⑵ Based on a three-month constant yield-to-maturity regression model, 10-year Italian bonds are 4.0 basis points more expensive than beta-adjusted 10-year Portuguese bonds. ⑶ This deviation is 2.1 standard deviations, a significant statistical deviation. ⑷ This signal indicates a short-term divergence in risk premiums between Italian and Portuguese government bonds, both from Southern Europe, in current market pricing. ⑸ This provides investors focused on intra-Eurozone credit spreads with a concrete and quantifiable point of relative value observation, suggesting potential convergence pressure on the spreads between the two countries.

18:29:55

[Yield Spread Model Signals Again: 2-Year Dutch Bonds Overvalued] ⑴ After directional adjustments for yield spreads, 2-year Dutch bonds appear overvalued relative to 2-year German bonds. ⑵ Based on a three-month constant yield to maturity regression model, 2-year Dutch bonds are 3.4 basis points more expensive than beta-adjusted 2-year German bonds. ⑶ This deviation is 2.0 standard deviations, which is statistically significant. ⑷ This quantitative signal indicates that in current market pricing, Dutch short-term bonds have a significant relative premium compared to their core benchmark (German bonds). ⑸ This typically suggests a potential short-term pricing imbalance in the market, providing investors focused on carry trades with a potential window for adjustment or arbitrage.

18:28:46

Palm oil prices narrowed their fluctuations after hitting a six-week low: Which will break through first, the "bottom" supported by crude oil or the "top" suppressed by inventory? Details>

18:26:32

[UK and EU Launch Electricity Market Integration Negotiations, Focusing on Energy Costs and Security] ⑴ The UK government announced it will begin formal negotiations with the EU on electricity market integration, the latest step in deepening cooperation between the two sides. ⑵ London indicated that closer electricity cooperation, if the negotiations progress, is expected to reduce electricity costs for UK consumers. ⑶ The UK government believes this move will bring tangible benefits to UK businesses and consumers and will boost energy investment in the North Sea region, thereby strengthening energy security. ⑷ In addition to electricity negotiations, the two sides have also set deadlines for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and establishing a carbon market interconnection mechanism by next year, aiming to achieve results before the 2026 UK-EU summit. ⑸ This series of negotiations marks a new stage in cooperation between the two sides in the economic, trade, and energy sectors, and its substantial progress will directly impact future energy prices and supply stability across the Channel.

18:24:01

Mexico removes tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.

18:16:37

[South Korea Launches Large-Scale Corn Purchase; Premium Transaction Highlights Supply Competition] ⑴ South Korea's major feed group (MFG) launched an international tender for corn on Wednesday, initially purchasing approximately 136,000 tons, with a total tender volume potentially reaching 210,000 tons, and further purchases are possible. ⑵ The initial purchase involves two shipments of 68,000 tons each, with an estimated landed price (cost plus freight) of US$253.33 per ton, plus an additional US$1.50 per ton surcharge for port unloading. ⑶ The sellers for these two shipments are believed to be trading companies CHS and Olam, with shipments scheduled to arrive in South Korea in April 2026. ⑷ This purchase is not only large in scale, but the transaction price also includes additional port handling surcharges, reflecting a competitive premium for securing grain supplies in the international market. ⑸ As a major feed importer, South Korea's proactive actions may indicate that demand for grain supplies in Asia remains robust; the market is watching its subsequent purchasing pace and price impact.

18:15:51

The final reading of the eurozone's CPI for November excluding tobacco

Previous : 129.07 Forecast : -

Published Value 128.68

18:12:40

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1930.00/oz mark, last trading at $1930.30/oz, up 5.95% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1957.7/oz, up 4.38% on the day.

18:09:32

[Eurozone Inflation Slows Across the Board, Core Indicators Fall as Expected, Providing Room for ECB to Take a Wait-and-See Approach] ⑴ The Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.1% year-on-year in November, slightly below the market expectation of 2.2%, and fell 0.3% month-on-month. ⑵ Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was 2.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but fell 0.5% month-on-month, indicating a general easing of price pressures at the monthly level. ⑶ Component data showed that service price inflation remained at a relatively high level of 3.5% year-on-year, but fell significantly by 0.8% month-on-month; non-energy industrial goods inflation further slowed to 0.5% year-on-year. ⑷ Food, alcohol, and tobacco price inflation fell sharply to 2.4% year-on-year, with unprocessed food inflation slowing from 3.2% in October to 3.2%, while the year-on-year decline in energy prices narrowed to 0.5%. (5) Overall data suggests that Eurozone inflation is trending downwards as expected, with core inflation momentum weakening monthly. This provides a basis for the ECB to maintain its current wait-and-see stance, but the stickiness of service sector inflation remains a key point to watch for future policy shifts.

18:07:20

The Swedish Debt Office reports that the average yield on Swedish bonds maturing in 2033 is 2.6497%, and the average yield on bonds maturing in 2035 is 2.7718%.

18:06:47

EDF (Électricité de France) announced that the Graffling Unit 1 910 MW reactor will undergo scheduled maintenance from 23:00:00 on July 11, 2025 to 21:30:00 on December 18, 2025, during which time the reactor will be shut down for maintenance.

18:06:16

[Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Cause Oil Prices to Rebound; Spot Premiums and Supply Dynamics Underscore] ⑴ Middle Eastern crude oil benchmark prices rose on Wednesday, primarily due to the US announcement of a "comprehensive" blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. ⑵ Supply concerns intensified further, with reports that the US was preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia's energy sector in case a peace agreement was rejected, driving global crude oil futures up 2% on Wednesday. ⑶ In the spot market, the premium of Dubai crude oil over swap contracts rose 11 cents to 46 cents per barrel, reflecting tighter spot supply. ⑷ Specific transactions showed that multiple Upper Zakum crude oil spot deals were executed at prices between $59.70 and $59.73 per barrel, with Glencore being the main buyer and major oil companies such as ExxonMobil and BP being sellers. (5) Despite sanctions pressure, India’s crude oil imports from Russia are expected to return to more than 1 million barrels per day in December as refiners turn to unsanctioned entities to buy crude oil at deep discounts, highlighting the reshaping of global supply flows.

18:02:16

[Germany's Energy Structure Observation: Natural Gas Consumption Rebounds, Renewable Electricity Share Remains Flat] ⑴ Preliminary data from the German Energy Industry Association (BDEW) shows that national natural gas consumption reached 875 billion kWh in 2025, a 3.6% increase compared to 2024. ⑵ Net natural gas imports in 2025 were 772 billion kWh, the same as in 2024, indicating that domestic consumption growth mainly relied on inventory or other channels for replenishment. ⑶ Regarding import sources, Norwegian pipeline gas accounted for 39% of supply in November, while 94.7% of liquefied natural gas imported from January to November this year came from the United States, demonstrating significant dependence. ⑷ Total electricity generation in 2025 was 498.9 billion kWh, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, with renewable energy accounting for 58%, consistent with the 2024 level. ⑸ Overall, Germany's energy consumption grew moderately, its energy structure transformation entered a plateau period, the share of renewable electricity did not increase further, while dependence on US LNG continued to deepen.

18:01:01

The final reading of the eurozone's harmonized CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.30%

18:00:56

The final reading of the Eurozone's core harmonized CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : -0.40% Forecast : -0.40%

Published Value -0.40%

18:00:44

The annual rate of the DCLG house price index in the UK for October

Previous : 2.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.70%

18:00:10

The annual rate of labor costs in the eurozone in the third quarter

Previous : 3.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.30%

18:00:10

Eurozone third-quarter wage annual rate - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : 3.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 3%

18:00:09

The final reading of the eurozone's harmonized CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.30%

18:00:09

The final reading of the Eurozone's core harmonized CPI monthly rate for November

Previous : -0.40% Forecast : -0.40%

Neutral

Published Value -0.40%

18:00:09

The final annual harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for the eurozone in November

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.10%

18:00:09

The final reading of the harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for the eurozone in November

Previous : 129.07 Forecast : -

Published Value 128.68

18:00:07

Eurozone harmonized CPI annual rate for November - unadjusted final reading

Previous : 2.20% Forecast : 2.20%

美元

欧元金银

Published Value 2.10%

18:00:06

The final annual rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for November

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.40%

Neutral

Published Value 2.40%

18:00:06

Eurozone core harmonized CPI annual rate for November - unadjusted final reading

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.40%

Neutral

Published Value 2.40%

18:00:05

The final monthly rate of the harmonized CPI excluding tobacco for the eurozone in November

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -0.30%

Neutral

Published Value -0.30%

17:59:25

[German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Falls Again; Fiscal Stimulus Fails to Resolve Stagnation] ⑴ Germany's December Ifo Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell to 87.6, below the expected 88.2 and the previous reading of 88.0, indicating that the growth difficulties of Europe's largest economy continue. ⑵ The head of the Ifo survey stated that the German economy "received no gifts" this year, and businesses have become more pessimistic about the outlook for the first half of 2026, although their assessment of the current situation remains unchanged. ⑶ Economists point out that this data decline echoes the decline in the composite PMI, indicating that the long-awaited economic recovery has not yet materialized, and the fiscal stimulus plan previously announced by the government has not yet had a substantial impact. ⑷ Analysts believe that because some of the stimulus funds need to be used to cover the fiscal costs of an aging population, and the specific plans for infrastructure investment will take time to be implemented, the boosting effect of fiscal stimulus on the economy may be less than expected. ⑸ Business confidence has also been dragged down by the failure to implement previously promised broad economic policy reforms, and businesses are waiting for more specific and effective policy measures to revitalize economic momentum.

17:54:08

[Silver Frenzy: A Battle Between Structural Shortage, Short Squeeze, and the $70 Target] ⑴ Institutional analysts generally believe that the current silver price surge is driven by structural shortages and a surge in industrial demand. The construction of photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and AI infrastructure will significantly boost silver demand. ⑵ Insufficient supply elasticity is a key constraint. Increased silver production relies on increased output of its related metals, while global exchange inventories have fallen to near-decade lows, exacerbating the risk of spot shortages. ⑶ In terms of market dynamics, this round of price increases has been accompanied by severe short squeezes and speculative flows from Western investors entering silver ETFs, with holdings surging by 1,145 tons in one month. ⑷ Regarding the outlook, most institutions are bullish on silver's long-term fundamentals, but warn of high volatility in the short term. The gold-silver ratio is already oversold, falling to a new low since 2021, but if it further falls to 40, it means that silver prices still have significant upside potential. (5) There is a divergence in the price targets given by institutions. Some see $70, while a more optimistic view is that the price will be in the $75-$80 range. However, some analysts believe that the shortage will have peaked in 2025 and silver may underperform gold next year.

17:50:55

French unions: Strike by Louvre Museum employees extended.

17:46:52

[EU and UK Complete Key Negotiations on Education and Energy Cooperation] ⑴ European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU and the UK have taken a new step in the process of reshaping their strategic partnership. The two sides have completed negotiations on the UK's accession to Erasmus+ in 2027, a move aimed at bringing the program back to the youth of both sides, opening new doors for shared experiences and forging lasting friendships. ⑵ Simultaneously, the two sides completed exploratory consultations on matters related to the UK's participation in the EU's internal electricity market. The EU and the UK pledged to continue their efforts to implement the common agenda, ensuring tangible results before the next EU-UK summit.

17:45:53

The top Ukrainian military commander stated that Ukrainian forces have taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern region around Kupyansk.

17:45:42

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is drafting proposals to strengthen banks' disclosure of information regarding their use of synthetic risk transfer instruments.

17:45:26

The UK government has stated that the Erasmus+ program offers a 30% discount compared to the default terms of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The UK and EU have set a deadline of next year for reaching an agreement on a food and beverage trade deal and carbon market linkage.

17:38:10

[Inflation Slows Down More Than Expected, Market May Underestimate Central Bank Easing in 2026] ⑴ Analysts point out that the faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation has paved the way for the central bank to increase easing in 2026. ⑵ The unexpected decline in November inflation was mainly due to falling prices for food and core commodities, which typically rise in November, reflecting that weak demand has eroded businesses' pricing power. ⑶ Analysts believe that if the downward trend in commodity prices continues in November, the inflation rate could fall below the central bank's 2.0% target next summer. ⑷ The market has already priced in a rate cut in December and expects another cut before mid-2026, but the possibility of a second rate cut in the first half of next year has now increased significantly. ⑸ This view emphasizes that investors may still be underestimating the overall easing力度 in 2026, and the room for future monetary policy easing may be greater than currently expected by the market.

17:32:09

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that average house prices in the UK rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to October 2025, while private monthly rents in the UK rose by 4.4% in the 12 months to November 2025.

17:31:20

[German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Cools, Manufacturing, Services, and Trade All Decline] ⑴ Germany's IFO Business Climate Index unexpectedly fell to 87.6 in December, down from 88.0 in November and also below market expectations of 88.3. ⑵ IFO President Clemens Foster stated that this indicates the year ended without optimism, with businesses becoming more pessimistic about the outlook for the first half of 2026. ⑶ By sector, business confidence declined this month in manufacturing, services, and trade, while the construction sector remained at a low level without improvement. ⑷ Although businesses' assessment of their current operating conditions remained unchanged, the deterioration in future expectations dominated the overall index decline, reflecting pressure on both domestic and external demand prospects. ⑸ This data exacerbated market concerns about the growth momentum of Europe's largest economy at the beginning of 2026, potentially impacting overall recovery expectations for the Eurozone.

17:31:08

[UK Rejoins EU Erasmus+ Scheme, Advancing Cooperation in Trade, Energy, and Other Areas] ⑴ The UK and the EU have reached an agreement for the UK to rejoin the EU's Erasmus+ student exchange program in 2027, seen as a symbolic move in improving UK-EU relations. ⑵ Under the agreement, the UK will contribute approximately £570 million for the 2027/28 academic year and receive a 30% discount compared to the default terms of existing trade agreements. ⑶ Both sides also agreed to launch negotiations on electricity market integration and set a deadline next year to finalize a food and beverage trade agreement and a carbon emissions market linkage mechanism. ⑷ This move is part of the UK Labour government's efforts to build a closer relationship with the EU, with officials stating that it will "put opportunity first," and expecting over 100,000 Britons to benefit from the exchange program in the first year. ⑸ Rejoining the Erasmus+ scheme has long been a key objective for the EU in strengthening bilateral ties. The recent agreements mark a new stage in cooperation between the two sides in trade, energy, and cultural exchanges.

17:27:20

Kremlin: Any sanctions would undermine efforts to repair relations.

17:26:42

With yields nearing the 2% "forbidden zone," the USD/JPY exchange rate is fluctuating above 155: are traders betting that central banks won't intervene? Details>

17:26:35

[Germany's Business Climate Index Declines Further] ⑴ Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index for December 2025 fell to 87.6, the lowest level in seven months, below the revised previous value of 88 and market expectations of 88.2. ⑵ The expectations index weakened from 90.5 to 89.7, while the assessment of the current situation remained stable at 85.6.

17:26:23

[South African Rand Rises to Highest Level Since 2022] ⑴ The South African rand traded at around 16.7 against the US dollar, a new high since mid-August 2022, primarily supported by rising prices of precious metals, especially gold. ⑵ Meanwhile, traders continued to assess domestic economic data. ⑶ South Africa's November inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 3.5% from 3.6% in October, closer to the South African Reserve Bank's newly set 3% target, reinforcing market expectations for an interest rate cut next month.

17:25:26

[Poland's Consumer Confidence Index Remains Stable in December] ⑴ Poland's consumer confidence index remained stable at -9.9 in December 2025, unchanged from the previous month, as households' assessment of the economic outlook was mixed. ⑵ Views on the economic situation over the past year improved, rising from -22.8 to -20.6, while expectations for the next year declined from -15.2 to -16.9. ⑶ Household financial conditions improved, with the financial condition index rising from -7.5 to -7.0 over the past year and from -7.3 to -5.2 for the next year. ⑷ Current savings capacity jumped significantly from -4.1 to -0.1, while expected financial conditions rose from 11.8 to 15.1, and future savings expectations rose from 11.5 to 14.3, reflecting increased confidence in personal liquidity. ⑸ However, some indicators still show that consumers remain cautious, with household financial expectations for the next year declining from -1.9 to -4.0. (6) Price trend perception slowed from 57.9 to 52.0 over the past 12 months; the propensity to make large purchases slightly decreased from -2.6 to -2.9.

17:25:03

[Weak UK Inflation Data Boosts FTSE 100, Breaking Out of Consolidation] ⑴ The FTSE 100 broke out of its recent consolidation pattern after unexpectedly weak UK inflation data, as traders increased their bets on a Bank of England rate cut. ⑵ UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was weaker than expected across the board; traders are now betting on two more rate cuts in 2026. ⑶ The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points tomorrow and may release more dovish signals. ⑷ Weak inflation data propelled the UK FTSE 100 index higher as expectations of a rate cut boosted the stock market. ⑸ The UK Office for National Statistics indicated that food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as alcohol and tobacco, made the largest downward contribution to the monthly CPI and the annualized CPI including housing costs. ⑹ Although food prices are typically volatile, several Bank of England members have recently expressed concern that persistently rising food prices could keep inflation stubbornly above 2% as it alters household inflation expectations. (7) Therefore, this is good news for the Bank of England, which will make its monetary policy decision tomorrow; the market expects it to cut the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%. (8) Given the weak UK employment and inflation data this week, the Bank of England may not only implement an interest rate cut but also convey a more dovish tone. (9) The market had previously anticipated at least one more interest rate cut in 2026, and traders are now betting on at least two more rate cuts next year.

17:22:56

[Germany's December Ifo Business Climate Index Misses Expectations] ⑴ Germany's December Ifo Business Climate Index was 87.6, lower than the expected 88.2. ⑵ The previous value was revised down from 88.1 to 88.0. ⑶ The current situation index was 85.6, lower than the expected 85.8, and unchanged from the previous value. ⑷ The expectations index was 89.7, lower than the expected 90.5, and the previous value was revised down from 90.6 to 90.5. ⑸ This overall index is the weakest performance since May, with declining German business confidence at the end of the year weakening recent optimism about economic prospects. ⑹ Nevertheless, there is still optimism for next year against the backdrop of a more expansionary fiscal policy. ⑺ These data are not expected to immediately change the ECB's policy outlook. The market generally expects the central bank to keep key interest rates unchanged this week and continue this stance for some time in early 2026. ⑻ Current market participants have limited expectations for the ECB because the Eurozone economy remains relatively fragile, and Germany's particularly stubborn inflation problem continues to limit the flexibility for further monetary policy easing.

17:21:24

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1910.00/oz mark, last trading at $1909.95/oz, up 4.83% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1938.6/oz, up 3.36% on the day.

17:17:37

[Greece's Fiscal Performance Exceeds Expectations, High Surplus Relieves Market Pressure] ⑴ Data from the Greek Ministry of Finance shows that the central government's primary budget surplus reached €12.65 billion from January to November this year, significantly exceeding the target of €7.7 billion. ⑵ This strong performance was mainly due to higher-than-expected tax revenue and transfer payments, while fiscal spending was kept below the target level. ⑶ Specifically, tax revenue reached €64.97 billion, exceeding the target by approximately €330 million, while fiscal spending was €63.61 billion, saving €2.64 billion from the target. ⑷ Although interest payments were slightly higher than expected, reaching €7.61 billion, this did not have a substantial impact on the overall positive primary budget surplus result. ⑸ This indicates that after overcoming the debt crisis, Greece has strengthened fiscal discipline, particularly in combating tax evasion and promoting electronic payments, which continues to support market confidence.

17:17:24

[Inflation Plunge Triggers Expectations of Interest Rate Cut, Pound Sterling and UK Bond Yields Fall] ⑴ UK November CPI unexpectedly fell sharply to 3.2% year-on-year, far below the expected 3.5% and the previous month's 3.6%, marking the lowest level since March. ⑵ All sub-indices were weaker than expected, with core CPI slowing to 3.2%, service price inflation falling to 4.4%, and food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also falling to 4.2%. ⑶ Following the data release, the market reacted sharply, with the pound sterling falling more than 0.5 cents against the dollar, and the interest rate futures market almost entirely pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by the Bank of England on Thursday (December 18). ⑷ This unexpected decline in inflation was partly attributed to lower food prices (such as pastries, biscuits, and cereals) and the temporary impact of "Black Friday" promotions, but its overall weakness reinforced market expectations of further easing. (5) Despite some arguing that some downside factors may reverse in the coming months, inflation data across the board falling short of the Bank of England’s own forecasts has made a rate cut tomorrow a certainty and increased market bets on further rate cuts in 2026.

17:15:41

[Yield Spread Overview: High Yields for USD and AUD Assets, Deep Negative Yield Spread for JPY] ⑴ Among major global government bond markets, the 2-year US Treasury yield is 3.514%, significantly higher than most developed countries, only lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia's 4.046% and the UK's 3.717%. ⑵ Based on US Treasuries, 2-year yield spreads show divergence: Australian and British pound assets enjoy positive yield spreads of 53.2 and 20.3 basis points respectively, while Eurozone and Japanese yen assets generally have negative yield spreads exceeding 117 basis points, with the Japanese yen having the largest negative spread at -243.5 basis points. ⑶ The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.171%, with a similar yield spread pattern to the short term. Australian and UK government bonds still maintain positive yield spreads of 58.9 and 29.8 basis points respectively, while the negative yield spreads of core Eurozone countries such as Germany and France, as well as Japanese government bonds, remain above 60 to 220 basis points. (4) Taking German bonds as a benchmark, the yield on 2-year German bonds is 2.138%, with particularly prominent positive interest rate differentials with Australian dollars, British pounds, and US dollar assets, reaching 190.8, 157.9, and 137.6 basis points respectively. (5) At the 10-year level, the yield on German bonds is 2.849%, with its positive interest rate differentials with high-yield currencies (Australian dollar and British pound) and US dollar assets continuing to widen, while the negative interest rate differential with the Japanese yen remains at -86.5 basis points, highlighting the extreme divergence between global funding currencies and high-yield assets.

17:12:44

The pound sterling has plummeted after a double whammy of unemployment and inflation, signaling the approaching storm of interest rate cuts. Details>

17:11:09

A Moscow court will hold a preliminary hearing on January 16 regarding the Russian central bank's lawsuit against the European Clearing Bank.

17:07:19

[Italian Bonds Become "Expensive" and the Steep US Treasury Curve: Market Deviations Captured by Quantitative Models] ⑴ After directional adjustment for yield spreads, 10-year Italian government bonds appear overvalued compared to 10-year German government bonds. ⑵ Based on a two-month constant yield to maturity regression model, 10-year Italian bonds are 3.6 basis points more expensive than beta-adjusted 10-year German bonds, a deviation of 2.1 standard deviations. ⑶ After directional adjustment, the spread between 5-year and 10-year yields in the US Treasury curve appears quite steep. ⑷ Based on a three-month constant yield to maturity regression model, 10-year US Treasury bonds are 3.5 basis points cheaper than beta-adjusted 5-year US Treasury bonds, also a deviation of 2.1 standard deviations. ⑸ The above quantitative models show significant pricing deviations between bonds of different maturities and types, potentially indicating short-term market rebalancing pressures and potential trading opportunities.

17:07:09

[UK Bonds Surge Amid Unexpected Inflation and Technical Breakout Signals] ⑴ UK inflation data unexpectedly fell short of expectations, driving a sharp gap up in UK gilt prices today, reaching a high of 91.78 before retreating somewhat. ⑵ Prices are currently capped below 91.91/93 (the highs of late November and early December last year), but today's rise has broken through previous trend resistance. ⑶ The 10-year UK gilt yield faces trend support at 4.44%, with key support below at the low of 4.415%, while a large gap exists above, with resistance at 4.50%. ⑷ The 10-year UK-Germany bond yield spread reversed course and fell again after being capped by 170 basis points of resistance yesterday, slightly refreshing its low. ⑸ This yield spread has fallen below the 161 basis point lows of August and September 2024. If it falls further, the next key support is around 153 basis points from the lows of March and July 2024.

17:06:53

[ECB's Stance Remains Ambiguous, Rate Cut Expectations and a "Long Winter" for Interest Rates in 2026] ⑴ Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo BHF, points out that the ECB's GDP and inflation forecasts released at its Thursday meeting likely indicate that policy rates will remain unchanged next year. ⑵ He analyzes that even if the ECB no longer provides clear policy guidance, its staff's new forecasts could justify a "persistent status quo" for interest rates throughout 2026. ⑶ Cavalier believes that if the ECB needs to deviate from its current path in the future, the likelihood of it taking action by cutting interest rates is far greater than raising them.

17:04:44

On the 17th, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Office of the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Establishing a Unified National Electricity Market Evaluation System," clarifying that the evaluation of the unified national electricity market should be conducted through multi-dimensional comprehensive evaluation in conjunction with the market's development, focusing on four aspects: the effectiveness of electricity market operation, the role of the market, the sustainable development of operating entities, and the sufficiency of market competition. The notice outlines the overall requirements for establishing a unified national electricity market evaluation system, pointing out the need to construct a scientific, systematic, and dynamic electricity market evaluation system that coordinates multiple objectives such as safety and supply, green transformation, and economic efficiency, comprehensively and accurately evaluating the effectiveness of electricity market operation, providing decision-making basis for electricity market construction and regulation, promoting the scientific and precise nature of regulatory work, and further leveraging the decisive role of the unified national electricity market in the optimal allocation of electricity resources. (CCTV News)

17:04:19

If Putin rejects the peace agreement, the United States is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia.

17:03:47

Russian Foreign Ministry: Tensions surrounding Venezuela could have unpredictable consequences for the entire Western Hemisphere.

17:03:32

EU Climate Commissioner: The UK could be excluded from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), but only if the UK carbon market is integrated with the EU carbon market.

17:03:13

EU Climate Commissioner: We will not exempt any country from carbon border taxes.

17:03:05

The Brazilian government on October 15 approved a new version of its national climate plan, providing a clear roadmap for Brazil to implement the goals of the Paris Agreement and advance its low-carbon transition. According to a press release published on the Brazilian government website on October 15, the plan was approved by the Interdepartmental Committee on Climate Change that day and will be published in the Official Federal Gazette in the coming days. The new plan provides an implementation roadmap for Brazil to achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets, pledging to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 59% to 67% from 2005 levels by 2035. This is the first systematic update to Brazil's national climate governance framework in 17 years since the initial climate plan was launched in 2008. (Xinhua)

17:02:42

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1920.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1920.30/ounce, up 5.40% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1945.5/ounce, up 3.73% on the day.

17:02:33

The Ministry of Finance announced that, in order to further enrich instant lottery game products and promote the sustained and healthy development of the lottery industry, it has approved the China Welfare Lottery Issuance and Management Center to issue and sell 18 instant welfare lottery games, including "Bingwu Horse 5 Yuan". The 18 instant welfare lottery games, including "Bingwu Horse 5 Yuan", will have 65% allocated to lottery prizes, 15% to lottery issuance fees, and 20% to lottery public welfare funds based on their total sales.

17:01:24

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 17th - Lead

Previous : 15975 Forecast : -

Published Value -2875

17:01:10

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 17th - Zinc

Previous : 31075 Forecast : -

Published Value 2150

17:01:02

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on December 17th - Tin

Previous : 20 Forecast : -

Published Value 375

17:00:53

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 17th - Copper

Previous : 725 Forecast : -

Published Value 325

17:00:46

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on December 17th - Nickel

Previous : -84 Forecast : -

Published Value 690

17

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4338.44	5.83 (0.13%)
XAG	67.154	1.692 (2.58%)
CONC	56.57	0.57 (1.02%)
OILC	60.49	0.77 (1.29%)
USD	98.693	0.253 (0.26%)
EURUSD	1.1713	-0.0009 (-0.08%)
GBPUSD	1.3377	-0.0002 (-0.02%)
USDCNH	7.0335	0.0022 (0.03%)

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