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2025-09-18 Thursday

2025-09-19

02:03:37

The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that six of 19 officials (two in June) believe that there will be a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points in 2025, or one rate cut.

02:03:35

The Fed's median forecast shows another 50 basis point rate cut in 2025.

02:03:35

The Federal Reserve said that job growth has slowed down and the unemployment rate, although rising slightly, remains at a low level.

02:03:24

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 46,200.00 mark and was last at 46,202.15, up 0.97% on the day.

02:03:24

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.00% to 46,216.71.

02:03:21

Federal Reserve policymakers expect personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation to be 3.0% at the end of 2025, the same as the forecast in June; core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.1%, also the same as the forecast in June.

02:03:21

Fed forecasts showed one policymaker expecting the appropriate policy rate at year-end to be 4.25%-4.50%, while another believed it should be 2.75%-3.00%.

02:03:20

Federal Reserve policymakers expect gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1.6% in 2025, compared with 1.4% in June; the long-term growth rate is expected to be 1.8%, the same as in June.

02:02:44

The median forecast of Fed officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is 3.6%. The median forecast of Fed officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%. The median forecast of Fed officials for the federal funds rate at the end of 2027 is 3.1%.

02:02:35

The Fed said Milan opposed a 50 basis point rate cut.

02:02:31

The Federal Reserve said downside risks to employment have increased.

02:02:29

U.S. Treasuries erased losses after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected.

02:02:28

The Fed's median forecast suggests another 50 basis point rate cut in 2025.

02:02:14

GBP/USD just broke through the 1.3700 mark and is currently trading at 1.3701, up 0.42% on the day.

02:02:04

Spot gold just broke through the $3,680.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,680.41/ounce, down 0.25% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,713.70/ounce, down 0.31% on the day.

02:01:49

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the assessment of the macro outlook is good so far.

02:01:49

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%.

02:01:49

USD/CNH just broke through the 7.0900 yuan mark and was last at 7.0899 yuan, down 0.19% on the day. USD/CNH was last at 7.1030 yuan, down 0.16% on the day.

02:01:49

U.S. Senate Republican leader Thune said he was pleased to hear Dimon's assessment of the macro outlook.

02:01:49

According to sources, sports social platform Strava has invited banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to participate in the underwriting bidding for its initial public offering (IPO).

02:01:49

Spot gold just broke through the $3,660.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,653.86/ounce, down 0.97% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,700.60/ounce, down 0.66% on the day.

02:01:21

Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister met with US envoy Steve Witkoff in London to push for a resumption of negotiations.

02:01:21

Kathy at Charles Schwab expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

02:01:18

Kathy from Charles Schwab said it was difficult to justify a 50 basis point rate cut.

02:01:14

Spot gold just broke through the $3,670.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,668.34/ounce, down 0.58% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,709.00/ounce, down 0.43% on the day.

02:01:11

Kathy from Charles Schwab said they do think there will be a series of rate cuts.

02:01:10

Greg Peters of Prudential Investment Management (PGIM) expressed his views on bonds, emphasizing the importance of paying attention to volatility trends.

02:01:04

Kathy at Charles Schwab said inflation is likely to persist due to tariffs.

02:01:04

Spot gold just broke through the $3,680.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,679.19/ounce, down 0.28% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,718.80/ounce, down 0.17% on the day.

02:01:00

Societe Generale's head of U.S. rates strategy, Rajappa, said the Fed has "certain advantages" in phasing rate cuts.

02:00:59

Societe Generale's head of U.S. rates strategy, Rajappa, said the Fed will have to cut rates sooner rather than later.

02:00:57

Federal Reserve policymakers expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be 1.6% in 2025, higher than the 1.4% expected in June; at the same time, they expect long-term growth to be 1.8%, the same as expected in June.

02:00:57

This was the first time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates this year and the first time it has resumed cutting interest rates after a lapse of nine months. It decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%.

02:00:57

The Director-General of the World Health Organization said that the Rantisi Hospital in Gaza City was attacked yesterday when there were 80 patients in the hospital. No casualties have been reported so far, but the attack has caused panic among patients and staff.

02:00:53

Federal Reserve policymakers expect personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation to be 3.0% by the end of 2025, the same forecast as in June; at the same time, core PCE inflation is expected to be 3.1%, also the same as in June.

02:00:51

Fed forecasts showed one policymaker expecting the appropriate policy rate to be in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% by year-end, while another believed it should be in a range of 2.75% to 3.00%.

02:00:24

The Nasdaq index just broke through the 22,300.00 mark and was last at 22,302.02, down 0.14% on the day.

02:00:13

Spot gold just broke through the $3,690.00/ounce mark and was last trading at $3,694.04/ounce, up 0.12% on the day. The main COMEX gold futures contract was last trading at $3,728.90/ounce, up 0.10% on the day.

02:00:13

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just broke through the 46,100.00 mark and was last at 46,118.88, up 0.79% on the day.

02:00:10

U.S. Federal Funds Rate (FFR) forecast for the third quarter - Current year

Previous : 3.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.60%

02:00:10

The expected federal funds rate (FFR) for the third quarter of the United States - following the second year

Previous : 3.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.10%

02:00:10

Expectations for the US federal Funds Rate (FFR) in the third quarter - long-term

Previous : 3% Forecast : -

Published Value 3%

02:00:10

The expected federal funds rate (FFR) for the third quarter in the United States - following the third year

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.10%

02:00:04

The expected federal funds rate (FFR) for the third quarter of the United States - following the first year

Previous : 3.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.40%

02:00:04

Rajappa, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Societe Generale, said the Fed "has certain advantages" in phased rate cuts.

02:00:04

The lower limit of the US federal funds rate target for September

Previous : 4.25% Forecast : 4%

Neutral

Published Value 4%

02:00:04

The upper limit of the US federal funds rate target for September

Previous : 4.50% Forecast : 4.25%

Neutral

Published Value 4.25%

02:00:04

The interest rate on excess reserves of the US Federal Reserve in September

Previous : 4.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.15%

01:59:55

Rajappa, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at Societe Generale: The Fed will have to cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

01:59:36

Euro Weaker, Russian Wheat Prices Stable, EU Wheat Continues to Rise: Euronext wheat futures continued their upward trend on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high, driven by a weaker euro and signs of stabilization in Russian wheat prices after recent declines. Euronext December wheat futures rose for the sixth consecutive trading day, closing at €192.25 (US$227.74) per metric ton, up 0.5%. Earlier, the front-month contract reached its highest point since September 2nd at €193.00, continuing to move away from the contract's low of €188.00 set earlier this month.

01:53:33

Greg Peters of Prudential Investment Management (PGIM) talks about bonds: It is important to pay attention to volatility trends.

01:53:05

Kathy Charles Schwab: We do think there will be a series of rate cuts.

01:52:40

Jordan and Qatar emphasize political solution to regional crisis. King Abdullah II of Jordan held talks with visiting Qatari Emir Tamim on the 17th. Both sides emphasized the importance of political solution to regional crisis in restoring regional security and stability.

01:52:09

Reminder: At 02:00 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision statement and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30.

01:50:55

Kathy Charles Schwab: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

01:50:44

Israel's Minister of Strategic Affairs met with US envoy Steve Witkoff in London to push for a resumption of negotiations.

01:43:31

Greg Peters of Prudential Investment Management (PGIM): The Federal Reserve's mission is more inclined to promote growth rather than curb inflation.

01:43:14

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: The assessment of the macro outlook is good so far.

01:43:01

U.S. Senate Republican leader Thune: I am glad to hear Dimon's assessment of the macro outlook.

01:38:53

Greg Peters of Prudential Investment Management (PGIM): The focus is clearly on inflation and labor, not asset bubbles.

01:38:33

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon: We discussed the Federal Reserve at the Senate Republican lunch. We discussed macroeconomic growth at the Senate lunch. Complying with the Epstein subpoena is no problem. I believe the Federal Reserve should remain independent. I expect they will cut interest rates.

01:37:44

[Use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility falls to the lowest level since April 2021] The balance of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo facility fell to the lowest level since April 2021 on Wednesday. About 14 counterparties held approximately $14 billion in the reverse repo facility, down from $18.8 billion in the previous trading day. The number of participants hit the lowest level since August 14.

01:37:31

German Chancellor Merz said that criticism of Israel in Germany has become an excuse for hatred of Jews.

01:37:13

[Prediction Platform: Powell Opens with "Good Afternoon" with a 96% Probability] According to a US prediction platform, there's a 96% probability that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will open his press conference with "Good Afternoon." The market has observed a pattern based on previous press conferences: if Powell says "Good Afternoon," it signals a hawkish stance, while if he says "Hello everyone," it signals a dovish stance.

01:36:40

ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Given the uncertainties, the ECB recommends caution.

01:36:34

ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The ECB is ready to deal with unexpected changes.

01:32:45

Foreign exchange flows in Brazil for the week ending September 8 - from the beginning of the month to the cycle date

Previous : 2.76 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.63

01:20:44

Trader: Argentina's central bank is selling dollars in the market.

01:06:43

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 248.93 points, or 0.54%; the S&P 500 fell 13.25 points, or 0.2%; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 128.46 points, or 0.58%.

00:58:00

New US Senate Report Reveals KPMG Willfully Ignored Audit Findings Before Troubled Banks Failed: Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Ranking Member of the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), today released the final minority staff report of KPMG's 28-month investigation into its unqualified audits of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank. Weeks and even days before the three banks' collapses, KPMG publicly certified their financial data as fair and accurate. The PSI's findings reveal that KPMG was aware of the problems at these banks for years, which ultimately led to their collapses and put depositors and investors at risk. "KPMG ignored warning signs of instability at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, justifying a pattern of risky and questionable decision-making that resulted in issuing clean audit reports just days before their collapse," Blumenthal said. "Our PSI report exposes KPMG's willful blindness and highlights the need for significant reforms in the auditing industry to increase transparency and better protect consumers."

00:56:09

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 248.93 points, or 0.54%; the S&P 500 fell 13.25 points, or 0.2%; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 128.46 points, or 0.58%.

00:55:55

Most LME metal futures closed lower. LME copper futures closed down $130 at $9,996/ton. LME aluminum futures closed down $34 at $2,683/ton. LME zinc futures closed down $48 at $2,944/ton. LME lead futures closed up $2 at $2,012/ton. LME nickel futures closed down $23 at $15,405/ton. LME tin futures closed down $536 at $34,345/ton. LME cobalt futures closed flat at $33,335/ton.

00:46:33

[U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant Revealed to Have Listed Two Properties as "Primary Residences"] Mortgage documents reveal that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant agreed to simultaneously list two different properties as his "primary residence." This is reminiscent of the contradictory agreements cited by Trump in his attempt to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. In 2007, Bessant signed contradictory agreements listing properties in both New York and Massachusetts as his primary residences. However, mortgage experts point to no evidence of impropriety. This case demonstrates that inconsistencies in home loan documents do not necessarily constitute evidence of fraud. Other evidence from Bessant's mortgage indicates that his lender, Bank of America, did not rely on these agreements and never anticipated that he would use both properties as his primary residences.

00:39:56

The Nasdaq index just broke through the 22,200.00 mark and was last at 22,199.72, down 0.60% on the day.

00:38:07

The West African Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.25%.

00:30:11

Arabica coffee fell as much as 9.1%, the biggest drop since 2008.

00:24:22

At the close of European trading on Wednesday (September 17), London cocoa futures fell 0.35%, Robusta coffee futures dropped 6.53%, and sugar futures dropped 1.31%.

00:24:11

Market news: Euronext is considering extending trading hours for agricultural futures, particularly to attract more US capital flows.

00:23:58

Iranian Foreign Minister Holds Phone Call with Foreign Ministers of the UK, France, and Germany to Discuss Sanctions Lifting Against Iran, Among Other Issues: On the 17th local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke simultaneously with his British, French, and German counterparts regarding the Iranian nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions. During the call, Araghchi expressed Iran's principled position of maintaining dialogue and diplomatic channels to prevent escalation of tensions, and argued that the three European countries' move to activate the "snapback" mechanism lacks any legal or logical basis.

00:23:44

Russia's Economy Ministry said annual consumer inflation was 8.02% as of September 15, compared with 8.1% a week earlier.

00:05:10

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model expects U.S. GDP growth to be 3.3% in the third quarter, down from the previous forecast of 3.4%.

00:02:57

Russia's PPI monthly rate for August

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.10%

00:02:56

Russia's PPI year-on-year rate in August

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.40%

2025-09-17 Wednesday

23:57:20

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen: Will wait to hear Prime Minister Le Cornu's budget proposal.

23:56:52

Macquarie Group held talks to acquire Carlyle Group. The deal, if finalized, would create a global investment giant encompassing private equity, credit, real estate, and Macquarie's traditional strengths in infrastructure.

23:56:23

French National Rally leader Bardella: If Le Cornu continues to implement Macron's policies, he will step down.

23:56:22

French National Rally leader Bardella: Tell (Prime Minister) Le Cornu that he must break with Macron's policies.

23:53:58

[Wang Yi holds talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun] Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, held talks with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun in Beijing on the 17th. Wang Yi stated that the two heads of state reached important consensus on promoting the China-ROK strategic cooperative partnership to a higher level during their phone call. Both sides should adhere to the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations, firmly adhere to the direction of good-neighborly friendship, adhere to the goal of mutual benefit and win-win results, and become true strategic partners. China and South Korea should jointly oppose trade protectionism. Cho Hyun said that South Korea is willing to work with China to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, take the opportunity of hosting the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting in Gyeongju to further strengthen high-level exchanges, deepen exchanges and cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, culture and humanities, and accelerate the negotiations on the South Korea-China and South Korea-Japan free trade agreements. (Xinhua News Agency)

23:53:27

Zelensky: Missiles for the HIMARS (non-state advanced surface-to-air missile system) and Patriot air defense systems are part of the first arms supplies provided by the United States under the Special Drawing Rights mechanism.

23:53:02

The Swedish government still expects GDP growth to be 0.9% in 2025.

23:47:59

The Argentine peso exchange rate fell below the lower limit of its trading range for the first time.

23:43:48

The U.S. 4-month Treasury bond auction on September 16th - Bid multiples

Previous : 3.26 Forecast : -

Published Value 3.06

23:43:47

The winning rate of the 4-month Treasury bond auction in the United States on September 16th

Previous : 3.85% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.81%

23:43:09

The U.S. Treasury auctioned four-month Treasury bills with a winning rate of 3.815% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.06.

23:42:57

Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich declared Gaza a "real estate bonanza" and is in talks with the US on a post-war division of the region. Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich stated on the 17th that the Gaza Strip is a "real estate bonanza" and that he is in talks with the US on how to divide the strip after the war. Speaking at a real estate conference in Tel Aviv, the far-right minister stated that the Gaza Strip "has a real estate boom and can be self-sufficient" and that he has begun negotiations with the Americans.

23:42:35

Major European stock indices closed mixed: Germany's DAX 30 index initially closed down 0.02% at 23,324.66 points. France's stock index initially closed down 0.49%, Italy's stock index initially closed down 1.38%, and the banking index fell 2.34%. The UK stock index initially closed up 0.09%.

23:41:42

Bank of England Preview: Pace of quantitative tightening attracts attention, while timing of rate cuts remains to be seen Details>

23:26:33

[BNP Paribas: Powell will "maintain a very careful balance while keeping things as they are"] At today's crucial Federal Reserve meeting, re-cutting interest rates may be the easiest part. In addition to carefully adjusting monetary policy between high inflation and a weak labor market, Chairman Powell also needs to deal with "increasing instability in the Federal Open Market Committee," said James Egelhof of BNP Paribas, and "work to reduce pressure." Trump has been calling for a significant interest rate cut, and three members have already been appointed to the committee. Egelhof expects Powell to "maintain a very careful balance while keeping things as they are." He said that dealing with political pressure may be the decisive factor in prompting the Fed to pay attention to the weak labor market. BNP Paribas expects a series of 25 basis point rate cuts.

23:25:22

[CIBC: Bank of Canada to Cut Rates Again in October] After lowering interest rates to 2.5% on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada signaled a cautious approach to future rate decisions. The Bank of Canada noted that while price increases appear to be weakening, President Trump's tariff policies still pose inflationary risks. CIBC Capital Markets stated that it believes the Canadian economy's resilience is weakening and that inflation will be contained by a weak job market. The bank is maintaining its forecast for another rate cut in October, lowering the rate to 2.25%.

23:24:26

[Oxford Economics: The expected cut in the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate does not mean the start of a new cycle of rate cuts] Tony Stilo and Michael Davenport of the Oxford Economics Institute believe that the expected cut in the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate does not mean the start of a new cycle of rate cuts, which will lead to a sharp drop in interest rates to the stimulating range. They expect that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in October and maintain interest rates at 2.25% until 2026. Economists say that the Bank of Canada still faces a dilemma because it is weighing the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to economic growth from the trade war. "In addition, major fiscal stimulus measures are likely to be listed in the federal budget this fall, which will play a major role in supporting the economy in the short term," they said.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3652.74	8.47 (0.23%)
XAG	42.195	0.402 (0.96%)
CONC	63.04	-0.22 (-0.35%)
OILC	67.27	-0.19 (-0.28%)
USD	97.405	0.049 (0.05%)
EURUSD	1.1775	-0.0010 (-0.08%)
GBPUSD	1.3532	-0.0023 (-0.17%)
USDCNH	7.1103	0.0037 (0.05%)

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