Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

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London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2025-10-31 Friday

2025-11-04

20:32:06

Canada's seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for August

Previous : 0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.30%

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20:30:03

Canada's seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for August

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0%

美元
加元 金银

Published Value -0.30%

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20:00:38

[US Repo Rates Surge to 4.25%, Halloween Liquidity Alarm Sounds] ⑴ The general guarantee rate surged 19 basis points to 4.25% on Halloween, reflecting settlement pressure caused by a $58 billion outflow. ⑵ The opening bid price was 25 basis points higher than the upper limit of the 3.75%-4.00% interest rate corridor, continuing the recent upward trend in overnight rates. ⑶ The Federal Reserve's repo facility offered a 4.00% execution rate at 20:30 Beijing time and 01:30 the following day, with a liquidity quota of $500 billion. ⑷ Yesterday's two operations only raised $6.2 billion, and although the execution rate was better than the market level, it failed to effectively attract demand. ⑸ Month-end fund allocation drove increased demand for reverse repo operations, and this pattern may continue today. ⑹ The 20-year bond premium remained stable, despite new bond settlement pressure, showing the resilience of demand for certain bonds. (7) Auction announcements for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds will be released on November 5th, and hedging demand may boost buying in these maturities. (8) Federal funds futures pricing indicates a 68% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting, down 7 percentage points from yesterday. (9) The auction stop rates for 1-month and 2-month Treasury bills were 3.910% and 3.890%, respectively, with short-term rates remaining relatively stable. (10) The 0x3 overnight index swap rate was 3.759%, 48.1 basis points lower than the 10-day average SOFR, implying a 92% probability of another rate cut.

20:00:22

South Africa's trade balance for September - including regions

Previous : 39.70 Forecast : 125

Published Value 217.60

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20:00:03

Brazil's unemployment rate in September - National Household Sample Survey

Previous : 5.60% Forecast : 5.50%

Published Value 5.60%

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19:57:07

[US Treasury Yields Hold Above 4.10%, Central Bank Policy Divergence Exacerbates Market Volatility] ⑴ The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remained above 4.10%, with near-record levels of corporate bond issuance intensifying supply and demand pressures. ⑵ Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that a December rate cut is not a given, and Wednesday's rate cut was purely a risk management measure. ⑶ Disagreements have emerged within the European Central Bank regarding its December policy meeting; the newly released three-year forecast will be a key factor in decision-making. ⑷ Trading strategies favor selling on rallies, with the 4% psychological level becoming a significant resistance level; the 10-year yield range is expected to be 4.08%-4.12%. ⑸ Friday's government shutdown delayed the release of the employment cost index and personal income and spending reports, amplifying market volatility due to the data vacuum. ⑹ The European bond market faces structural challenges; the lifting of debt restrictions in Germany may trigger a bond issuance frenzy, testing market resilience. ⑺ Several hawkish Federal Reserve officials will speak, and their policy stances may further reinforce expectations of persistently high interest rates. (8) Although core PCE inflation is projected to remain at 2.9%, tariffs could push inflation to 3.1% by the end of 2025. (9) The ECB significantly upgraded its economic assessment in its statement, removing its cautious description of the economic situation, demonstrating a hawkish shift. (10) Market liquidity is facing a test, with over $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bond issuance in a single day exhausting buyers' capacity to absorb the supply.

19:44:13

India's M3 money supply for the week ending October 13

Previous : 9.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 9.20%

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19:36:07

Brazil's total debt as a proportion of GDP in September

Previous : 77.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 78.10%

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19:31:59

Brazil's net debt as a proportion of GDP in September

Previous : 64.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 64.80%

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19:31:53

Brazil's total debt as a proportion of GDP in September

Previous : 77.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 78.20%

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19:31:35

Brazil's nominal budget balance for September

Previous : -915.16 Forecast : -860.74

Published Value -1021.85

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19:31:26

Brazil had a basic budget surplus in September

Previous : -172.55 Forecast : -172.20

Published Value -174.52

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19:30:58

The year-on-year growth rate of bank loans in India for the week ending October 13

Previous : 11.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 11.50%

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19:30:57

India's foreign exchange reserves for the week ending October 20

Previous : 7025.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 6953.60

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19:30:57

India's annual rate of deposit growth for the week ending October 13

Previous : 9.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 9.50%

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19:29:30

[State Council Executive Meeting: Measures Deployed to Accelerate the Cultivation and Opening of Application Scenarios and Promote Large-Scale Application of New Scenarios] Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which pointed out that application scenarios are the bridge connecting technology and industry, and bridging R&D and the market, playing a crucial guiding role in promoting the large-scale commercial application of new technologies and products. The meeting emphasized the need to fully leverage my country's advantages of a super-large market and abundant application scenarios, focusing on supply and demand matching, prioritizing the development of new fields and tracks, high-value niche scenarios, and cross-regional and cross-domain integrated scenarios, targeting the forefront of industrial development and the needs of major technological breakthroughs. It stressed the importance of opening up scenario resources, conducting pilot-scale testing and innovation, and exploring business models to promote the formation of a complete closed loop from technological breakthroughs to industrial applications. The meeting also called for cultivating more new scenarios through reform and innovation, advancing "hardware construction" such as infrastructure and platforms, providing "software support" such as laws, regulations, and policies, strengthening inter-departmental collaboration, improving regulatory mechanisms, and creating a favorable innovation ecosystem. (CCTV News)

19:09:55

[EUR/USD Technical Analysis] Observing the 30-minute candlestick chart, the EUR/USD pair quickly entered a downtrend after forming a temporary high at 1.1665, accompanied by a series of long-bodied bearish candlesticks. Subsequently, a lower shadow appeared near 1.1577, indicating that buying pressure was beginning to emerge. The pair then rebounded briefly but encountered strong resistance near 1.1600, suggesting that 1.1600 has become a key short-term resistance level and a "threshold" that bulls must overcome to recover. After failing to break through effectively, the price retested the lows, reaching 1.1546, before finding support above 1.1554 and gradually entering a horizontal channel consolidation between 1.1560 and 1.1580. The MACD indicator (26,12,9) shows that DIFF is -0.0002 and DEA is -0.0003, still below the zero axis, but the two lines are beginning to converge. The MACD histogram has gradually turned from the previous green negative bars to slightly red bars, reflecting the weakening of the bearish momentum and the possible momentum replenishment. This is a typical "slowing down" signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is around 48.4785. It is in the oversold zone below 50 but significantly above 30, which is a neutral to slightly weak state. This indicates that the current situation is not a panic sell-off, but rather a slow war of attrition where the bears control the pace at low levels and force the bulls to give up their rebound chips. In summary, the 1.1546-1.1554 area forms the recent static support zone, and 1.1600 is the static resistance line above. As long as there is no volume breakout above 1.1600, the trend is still defined as a consolidation market dominated by downward pressure, rather than a complete reversal.

18:41:41

The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across China as of October 31

Previous : 236.62 Forecast : -

Published Value 225.34

Previous

18:41:31

The operating rates of soybean crushing at major oil mills across China as of October 31

Previous : 65.13% Forecast : -

Published Value 61.99%

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18:39:49

India's federal fiscal deficit in September - local currency INR

Previous : 59815.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 57312.30

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18:29:31

[ECB Survey: Inflation Expectations Slightly Upward, Economic Growth Outlook Remains Fragile] ⑴ The ECB's fourth-quarter survey of professional forecasters shows that the overall HICP inflation expectation for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%. ⑵ Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, with long-term inflation expectations remaining stable at the 2.0% target level. ⑶ Core inflation expectations have also been revised upward, with the HICPX expectation rising by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4% in 2025, and remaining unchanged at 2.0% in subsequent years. ⑷ Real GDP growth expectations for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2%, remaining at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. ⑸ Trump's tariff rhetoric has had a negative impact on near-term economic growth expectations, but its direct impact on inflation is relatively limited. ⑹ The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 6.2% in 2027 and remaining there in the long term. (7) Interest rate path projections indicate that the deposit facility rate will fall to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2026, subsequently gradually rising to 2.25% by 2030. (8) The euro/dollar exchange rate is projected to steadily appreciate from 1.18 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.20 in 2030. (9) Oil price projections have been slightly revised downwards, expected to remain in the $64-$68 per barrel range throughout the forecast period. (10) Nominal wage growth is projected to gradually slow from 4.5% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and then stabilize at around 2.8% in the long term.

18:27:14

China's weekly rapeseed meal inventory as of October 31

Previous : 0.78 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.71

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18:27:04

China's weekly soybean meal inventory as of October 31

Previous : 96.31 Forecast : -

Published Value 100.44

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18:26:26

The preliminary reading of Italy's CPI excluding tobacco for October

Previous : 121.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 115.80

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18:24:56

The preliminary annual rate of Italy's CPI excluding tobacco in October

Previous : 1.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.80%

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18:14:37

Preliminary reading of the eurozone's harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

18:14:21

Preliminary reading of the Eurozone's core harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

18:13:43

Preliminary monthly rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

18:13:42

Preliminary reading of the eurozone's unadjusted CPI for October

Previous : 129.42 Forecast : -

Published Value 129.70

Previous

18:09:50

The preliminary reading of Italy's unadjusted CPI for October

Previous : 123.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 122.70

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18:03:56

[Eurozone Inflation Alarms: Accelerating Services Inflation Offsets Lower Energy Prices] ⑴ Eurozone inflation dipped slightly to 2.1% in October, remaining close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, in line with expectations of a moderate economic recovery. ⑵ Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4%, exceeding market expectations of a slowdown, as services inflation accelerated from 3.2% to 3.4%. ⑶ The decline in industrial goods inflation was completely offset by rapid growth in services prices, with lower energy costs being the main driver of the slight overall inflation decline. ⑷ The ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, believing that inflation is on its target trajectory and that the most serious risks to economic growth have diminished. ⑸ Market expectations indicate that the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates again before mid-next year is only 40%, with most economists believing that the current rate-cutting cycle has ended. ⑹ In the year ending in June, the ECB had cumulatively cut interest rates by 2 percentage points, and the lagged effects of policy transmission continue to impact the real economy. ⑺ Some policymakers are concerned that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, predicting that inflation will fall below 2% early next year due to the statistical base effect, which may change corporate pricing expectations. (8) Another view holds that the economy is performing better than expected, with multiple surveys showing improved economic activity, which should alleviate economic concerns and limit the downside risk of inflation.

18:01:05

[Divergence Behind Global Stock Markets' Seven-Month Rally: Tech Boom vs. Asian Sentiment] ⑴ Global stocks are on track for their seventh consecutive monthly gain on Friday, while the dollar index hovers near a three-month high. ⑵ Strong earnings reports from Amazon and Apple reinforced global tech optimism, with markets anticipating massive AI spending that will ultimately boost economic growth. ⑶ Nasdaq futures surged 1.1%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, as Amazon's better-than-expected earnings drove its pre-market share price up more than 11%. ⑷ Apple's shares rose more than 2% on forecasts of strong iPhone sales, offsetting plunges in Meta and Microsoft due to concerns about surging AI spending. ⑸ Japan's Nikkei index jumped more than 2% on Friday, bringing its monthly gain to 16.4%, its best monthly performance since 1990, mainly driven by expectations of stimulus policies from the new prime minister. ⑹ Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by about 1.5%. ⑺ Despite the Federal Reserve chairman's dismissal of market optimism about a December rate cut, US Treasuries and European government bonds remained stable on Friday. (8) The US dollar index remained near a three-month high of 99.5, the euro was flat against the dollar at 1.1569, and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time. (9) In the commodities market, oil prices fell for the third consecutive month, with Brent crude futures down 0.9% to $64.55 per barrel. (10) Spot gold prices fell 0.3% to $4,008 per ounce, a significant drop from the record high of $4,381 reached last week.

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's harmonized CPI annual rate for October

Previous : 1.80% Forecast : 1.70%

Published Value 1.30%

Previous

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 1.30% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -0.20%

Previous

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : 0%

Published Value -0.30%

Previous

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3993.11

-8.05

(-0.20%)

XAG

47.916

-0.143

(-0.30%)

CONC

60.25

-0.80

(-1.31%)

OILC

64.09

-0.72

(-1.11%)

USD

99.908

0.044

(0.04%)

EURUSD

1.1515

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

1.3088

-0.0051

(-0.39%)

USDCNH

7.1250

0.0006

(0.01%)