Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

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New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-02-18 Wednesday

2026-02-22

22:46:40

U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate in January

Previous : 76.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 75.60%

Previous

22:19:14

U.S. industrial output for January year-on-year - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 1.99% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.28%

Previous

22:01:53

[US Mortgage Market Divergence Intensifies: Refinancing Demand Rises for Two Consecutive Weeks, Home Purchase Applications Fall for Four Consecutive Weeks] ⑴ Data released Wednesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that the composite mortgage application index rose 2.8% to 339.0 in the week ending February 13. The refinancing index climbed for the second consecutive week, rising 7.1% to 1375.9, a cumulative increase of 8.4% over two weeks. Refinancing applications accounted for 57.4% of all applications, up from 56.4%. ⑵ In stark contrast, the home purchase index fell for the fourth consecutive week, dropping 2.7% to 157.1, a cumulative decline of 19.1% over the past month. Despite the recent weakness, both indices are still 131.8% and 9.1% higher year-over-year, respectively. ⑶ Regarding interest rates, the 30-year large loan and FHA loan rates fell to 6.21% and 5.99%, respectively, both hitting new lows since 2023. The 30-year eligible lending rate dipped 4 basis points to 6.17%, just 1 basis point above its 2026 low. All three major lending rates remain 71 to 82 basis points lower year-over-year. (4) The proportion of adjustable-rate loans rose to 8.2%, the highest since October 31. The 5/1 ARM rate fell to 5.29%, the lowest since 2022, maintaining a relatively attractive spread of 88 and 92 basis points over eligible and large loans, respectively. The MBA's deputy chief economist stated that the lowest interest rate level in four weeks boosted refinancing activity.

22:01:15

[SOFR Futures Fall Across the Board as Supply Pressures and Technical Signals Clash] ⑴ On Wednesday, overnight financing rate futures opened lower across the board, continuing the mild pullback following yesterday's early morning challenge of November highs. SOFR packs across different maturities fell by 0.77 to 2.5 basis points, with the green pack leading the decline. The market is facing multiple supply pressures: today's issuance of 4-month Treasury bills and $20 billion in Treasury bonds, coupled with the expected supply of investment-grade corporate bonds this week. ⑵ From a technical signal perspective, the moving average crossover model shows that the red, green, and blue packs (corresponding to 2027-2029 contracts) remain in a "buy" signal, currently 7.5 to 13 basis points above the 13-day moving average. The white pack (2026 contract) issues a "sell" signal. Strategically, it is recommended to establish long positions in forward contracts at the 13-day moving average while reducing short positions in the white pack. (3) US Treasury yields generally opened higher, with 2-year to 5-year yields rising by 1.2 to 1.4 basis points, with the 5-year yield leading the gains. The yield curve flattened, with the 2s-30s spread narrowing by 0.7 basis points today after narrowing by 4.7 basis points yesterday. Notably, the moving average crossover model for all maturities of US Treasury bonds has turned to a "buy" signal, with 5-year and longer maturities just turning from "sell" to "buy". (4) Regarding economic data, capacity utilization, industrial production, and housing starts data will be released today, with capacity utilization being particularly noteworthy due to its inflationary implications. Short-term Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with 3-month and 1-year yields rising slightly, while the 6-month yield remained unchanged.

22:00:23

[The AI Productivity Myth Faces Historical Judgment: The Greenspan Rate Hike of the 1990s] ⑴ After a nearly 30-basis-point plunge over nine trading days, US Treasury yields rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The market had priced in almost three rate cuts by 2026, an extreme expectation partly stemming from a new narrative: artificial intelligence will be a "disruptor" of the labor market, while simultaneously ushering in a wave of prosperity. ⑵ In her speech on Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated the technological productivity miracle of the Greenspan era. She suggested that just as the information technology revolution of the 1990s allowed the Fed to remain patient and usher in prosperity, the current AI revolution may also be worth waiting for. However, historical records offer a different answer. ⑶ Harvard professor and former chairman of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, Furman, wrote in the Financial Times that while Greenspan did recognize accelerating productivity earlier than most, the legend here is distorted. Just one month after his speech, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and inflation began to rise steadily. Furman warned that productivity gains were pushing up the neutral interest rate, and central banks must maintain higher nominal interest rates to prevent inflation. (4) Turning our attention to the present, Furman argues that there is a key difference between the current situation and the 1990s: US productivity growth over the past year was only 1.9%, far below the 3.9% growth before Greenspan's speech in 1999. More dangerously, excessively high expectations for AI have driven up demand and asset prices, while inflation remains close to 3%. If the optimistic scenario materializes, the real lesson Warsh learned from the 1990s shouldn't be that the Fed should remain on hold, but rather that it may need to raise interest rates again. Tactically, it is recommended to establish short positions around the 10-year yield of 4.09% and the 2-year yield of 3.41%.

22:00:11

[US Single-Home Starts Rebound in December, But Declining Building Permits Highlight Concerns] ⑴ Data released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday showed that seasonally adjusted annualized single-home starts in December reached 981,000 units, a 4.1% increase month-over-month, rebounding from 942,000 units in November. This data was delayed due to last year's government shutdown. ⑵ However, single-home building permits, representing future construction activity, fell 1.7% month-over-month to 881,000 units, from 896,000 units in November. The decline in permits indicates that despite the rebound in starts, high interest rates and material costs continue to constrain builders' confidence. ⑶ Tariffs on imported lumber and other goods have pushed up material prices, while labor shortages caused by immigration restrictions have also increased construction costs. A survey conducted Tuesday by the National Association of Home Builders showed that builder sentiment deteriorated further in February, with high land and construction costs and the continued high price-to-income ratio being the main constraints. (4) The Trump administration has introduced a series of measures to improve housing affordability, including purchasing mortgage-backed securities and prohibiting institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Although mortgage rates have fallen somewhat, concerns about federal government debt have kept Treasury yields high, hindering progress. Economists believe that increasing supply is key to solving housing affordability.

21:55:49

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending February 9

Previous : 6.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.20%

Previous

21:50:57

[Swap Market Opens Mixed, Position Adjustments Dominate Trading Ahead of FOMC Minutes] ⑴ On Wednesday, the US dollar swap market opened mixed, with the yield curve steepening slightly. Swap buying was relatively mild, pressured by a rebound in US Treasury yields. Tuesday's primary market issuance of $13.28 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds was successfully absorbed, but rising money market rates and a decline in SOFR futures provided weak buying for swaps. ⑵ Overnight trading was mainly driven by position adjustments, with the market awaiting key risk events today—the Fed's January meeting minutes and a series of economic data. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at a prolonged period of inactivity, leading to a slight sell-off in Asia-Pacific bonds and a slight rise in Japanese bond yields. The UK's January CPI fell to a near one-year low, but was in line with expectations, having a short-lived impact on the bond market. ⑶ US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the curve initially flattening before flattening again. The 10-year yield rose to 4.067%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.449%. European and UK bonds followed US bonds and rose slightly. Reports of Lagarde's potential early resignation had a limited impact on the euro, but did put slight pressure on it. Japan announced a $550 billion investment plan in the US, weakening the yen. In other markets, European stocks were boosted by strong earnings reports, while US stock futures rose due to easing AI concerns. The US dollar index edged up to 97.254, Brent crude rose 1.98% to $68.74, and gold rose 0.8% to $4915.90, awaiting the Fed minutes and subsequent GDP and PCE data.

21:35:04

The annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in December

Previous : 124.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 140.40

Previous

21:34:59

The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the United States in December

Previous : -4.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.20%

Previous

21:32:59

Preliminary value of the annualized total number of building permits in the United States for December

Previous : 141.20 Forecast : 140.80

Published Value 144.80

Previous

21:32:51

The preliminary monthly rate of building permits in the United States for December

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

Previous

21:32:07

The preliminary monthly rate of building permits in the United States for December

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

Previous

21:31:55

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of U.S. orders excluding defense durable goods in December

Previous : 6.50% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.50%

Previous

21:31:54

The preliminary monthly rate of building permits in the United States for December

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

Previous

21:31:50

Preliminary value of the annualized total number of building permits in the United States for December

Previous : 141.20 Forecast : 140.80

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 144.80

Previous

21:31:46

Preliminary value of the monthly rate of non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft in the United States in December

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

Previous

21:31:13

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of durable goods orders excluding transportation in the United States in December

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.30%

Published Value 0.90%

Previous

21:31:06

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States for December

Previous : 5.30% Forecast : -2%

Published Value -1.40%

Previous

21:30:58

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in the United States in December

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.40%

Published Value 0.60%

Previous

21:23:49

[Environmental Groups Sue Trump Administration, Challenging the Revocation of Hazard Designations and Exhaust Emissions Rules] ⑴ A coalition of health and environmental organizations filed a lawsuit Wednesday in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, challenging the Trump administration's decision to revoke the "hazard designations" that form the basis of U.S. climate regulations. The lawsuit also questions the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) announcement last week to repeal exhaust emissions rules restricting greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks. ⑵ Last Thursday, the EPA announced it would repeal the 17-year-old "hazard designations" and terminate federal greenhouse gas emission standards for all vehicles and engines manufactured between 2012 and 2027. The agency claims this move will save U.S. taxpayers $1.3 trillion. ⑶ This lawsuit marks the most comprehensive setback to date in the Trump administration's climate change policies, now facing legal challenges. Previously, the administration had taken a series of deregulatory measures aimed at loosening restrictions on fossil fuel development and hindering the promotion of clean energy. Trump has called climate change a hoax and withdrew from the Paris Agreement again. (4) The "hazard designation," first adopted in 2009, forms the legal basis for the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) regulation of greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide and methane from industries like automobiles and power plants under the Clean Air Act. If repealed, the automotive sector would no longer be required to comply with federal greenhouse gas emission standards, but stationary pollution sources such as power plants would remain unaffected for the time being. According to EPA data, the transportation and power industries each account for approximately one-quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

21:17:53

[Who Will Succeed Lagarde if She Steps Down Early? Market Focuses on Two Candidates] ⑴ Rumors surrounding the potential early resignation of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sparked widespread speculation on Wednesday regarding her successor. The Financial Times reported that Lagarde plans to leave before the end of her term in October 2027 and hopes that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Anders Merz will be key decision-makers in her successor's life. The ECB subsequently responded that Lagarde has not yet made any decision. ⑵ Despite the rumors, the market reaction was calm. The euro fell only slightly by 0.1% against the dollar, and the yield on German 2-year government bonds remained stable at 2.06%, indicating that investors believe there will be no policy shift in the short term. Analysts pointed out that with inflation currently under control, the ECB is expected to maintain an interest rate of 2% for a long time, and the impact of a leadership change will be limited. ⑶ Market focus has shifted to potential successors. Former Spanish central bank governor Marcos de Cos and former Dutch central bank governor Heinrich Knot are considered the main candidates. Analysts believe that Knot is a "pragmatic hawk," while de Cos is more dovish, but both can ensure policy continuity. The ECB's decision-making relies on consensus, and its successor is unlikely to fundamentally change its operating methods. (4) However, some analysts warn that the ECB's reputation could be damaged if it is perceived as depriving the new government of the power to select key economic officials. Lagarde's considerations are interpreted as protecting the ECB from populist political pressure, but whether this risk is worth taking remains controversial. The French central bank governor stepped down early to allow Macron to appoint his successor, foreshadowing a complex interaction between French politics and ECB personnel.

20:57:00

[Swap Market Opens Mixed, Position Adjustments Dominate Trading Ahead of FOMC Minutes] ⑴ On Wednesday, the US dollar swap market opened mixed, with the yield curve steepening slightly. Swap buying was relatively mild, pressured by a rebound in US Treasury yields. Tuesday's $1.328 billion investment-grade corporate bond issuance in the primary market was successfully absorbed, but rising money market rates and a decline in SOFR futures provided weak buying for swaps. ⑵ Overnight trading was mainly driven by position adjustments, with the market awaiting key risk events today—the Fed's January meeting minutes and a series of economic data. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged and hinted at a prolonged period of inactivity, leading to a slight sell-off in Asia-Pacific bonds and a slight rise in Japanese bond yields. The UK's January CPI fell to a near one-year low, but was in line with expectations, having a short-lived impact on the bond market. ⑶ US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the curve initially flattening before flattening again. The 10-year yield rose to 4.067%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.449%. European and UK bonds followed US bonds and rose slightly. Reports of Lagarde's potential early resignation had a limited impact on the euro, but did put slight pressure on it. Japan announced a $550 billion investment plan in the US, weakening the yen. In other markets, European stocks were boosted by strong earnings reports, while US stock futures rose due to easing AI concerns. The US dollar index edged up to 97.254, Brent crude rose 1.98% to $68.74, and gold rose 0.8% to $4915.90, awaiting the Fed minutes and subsequent GDP and PCE data.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

 84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

 66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

 71.58

-0.31

(-0.44%)

USD

 97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

 1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

 6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)
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