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2026-05-27 Wednesday

2026-05-30

21:04:23

[UK Energy Price Cap Surges 13% to £1,862 in July; Analysts Warn of Another 2% Increase in Winter] ⑴ The UK Energy Regulatory Authority raised its energy price cap by 13% in July, bringing the annual bill for a typical dual-fuel direct-debit household to £1,862, an increase of £221 from the current level. Natural gas prices rose by 24%, far exceeding the 5% increase in electricity. The cap covers millions of households in England, Wales, and Scotland. ⑵ This increase was widely anticipated due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran-Iraq War, which has pushed up global energy prices. Cornwall Insights predicts the price cap will rise another 2% to £1,899 in October, coinciding with a rebound in winter heating demand. The agency's chief advisor pointed out that even if the Middle East conflict ends immediately, the damage to infrastructure, supply chain disruptions, and erosion of market confidence will not be repaired overnight, and the impact on bills may last longer. ⑶ The new unit rates from July are: natural gas from 5.74 pence to 7.33 pence per kilowatt-hour, and electricity from 24.67 pence to 26.11 pence. The UK Energy Secretary expressed deep regret over the price increases caused by the war, and the government has taken measures including freezing fuel taxes, providing free public transport for children nationwide in August, reducing bills by an average of £150 over the next few years, and extending the winter relief discount for approximately 6 million households. Consumers can avoid price increases by locking in fixed energy contracts, with current fixed rates approximately £250 lower than the July cap.

21:03:42

[Middle East Conflict Pushes Aluminum Prices Up Over 30%, Potentially Adding $5 Billion to US Solar Industry's 500 GW Installation] ⑴ Affected by the war in Iran leading to damage to oil refining facilities in the Gulf region and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, benchmark aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen 15% since the end of February, while COMEX aluminum futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have risen by more than 30%. Data from the US Geological Survey shows that the US will import more than 5 million tons of aluminum by 2025, with Canada supplying more than half, and the UAE and Bahrain accounting for 12% combined. ⑵ Aluminum is a key raw material for rails, clamps, and brackets in solar mounting systems. The CEO of SEG Solar stated that the price of solar project brackets has increased by about 20%, and some projects with low returns may be forced to cancel. Based on 500 watt modules, aluminum frames typically account for about $10 in cost per module; with supply constraints, this will increase by 50% to $15 per module. Based on a 500 GW installation, this translates to an additional $5 billion in costs. (3) The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that developers will add 43.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity in 2026, a 60% jump from last year. Experts say that small increases in cost per watt will be significantly amplified by large-scale installations, and the cost increases are expected to be passed on to commercial end-users, including utility-scale developers, office buildings, data centers, and factories, in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

21:02:04

[US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rebound 22 Basis Points, Oil Price Rebound and Yen Weakening May Trigger Selling Back; Fed's 4.6% Rate Becomes Next Barrier] ⑴ US Treasury yields continued to decline on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield falling 22 basis points from its high, but overnight gains were minimal. The rebound in oil prices and the weakening yen are putting new pressure on the bond market. The yen is hovering near its lowest level since the end of April, a level that previously triggered official intervention in Japan. Institutional data shows that the market still bets on a 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its June meeting. The rebound in Japanese bonds has stalled or even reversed, which could push US Treasury yields higher again. ⑵ Crude oil futures appear to be nearing a bottom. If tensions persist, inventories continue to decline, and spare capacity is further eroded, the energy market may be forced to more aggressively repric the remaining supply risks, increasing the likelihood of oil prices rising to $120-$150 per barrel, thus quickly reigniting inflation concerns and putting new upward pressure on global yields. The market may be underestimating the reality that the so-called peace process is increasingly resembling a delaying tactic rather than a real solution. Iran is highly unlikely to concede on uranium enrichment or restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the core geopolitical risks remain unresolved. ⑶ The daily chart of the 10-year yield shows the Bollinger Band middle line at 4.47%, with the 4.43% area providing strong support. After the yield broke upwards from the extremely narrow Bollinger Band width, the natural short covering has pushed the 10-year yield back to the Bollinger Band middle line. Without a genuine peace agreement, and with Thursday's core PCE rising 0.4% month-on-month, the yield could quickly rise to 4.60%. Tactically, a two-way range trading strategy is maintained, but a preference for selling on rallies is preferred, with the 10-year yield expected to trade between 4.50% and 4.46%. ⑷ The European Central Bank warned in its semi-annual assessment that the Iranian conflict could trigger a series of global financial crises. Uncertainty surrounding the US government's commitment to multilateral cooperation increases the risk of policy shocks disrupting the international order. More persistent energy supply disruptions and significantly weaker economic growth could trigger a market reassessment of sovereign risk, while the presence of more price-sensitive investors such as hedge funds in the Eurozone sovereign debt market could amplify any sudden repricing of sovereign risk.

21:00:16

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending May 18

Previous : 8.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 9%

Previous

20:56:44

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending May 18

Previous : 8.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 9%

Previous

20:43:11

[Caixin Futures: Most Agricultural Products Weak, Soybean Meal to be Sold on Rallies] ⑴ Edible Oils: Mainly volatile. Recent rainfall conditions are unlikely to support weather-related speculation, and the fundamentals of the edible oil spot market are weak. Themes from distant months cannot sustainably drive the near-month market. Overall rainfall in Indonesia is suitable for palm fruit growth, while the relatively dry conditions in the Malaysian Peninsula are beneficial for oil yield. Heavy rainfall in East Malaysia has hampered harvesting, and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand has slightly impacted rubber palm production. In the spot market, 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong rose by 30 yuan to 9420 yuan, soybean oil rose by 10 yuan to 8720 yuan, and rapeseed oil rose by 20 yuan to 10080 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: Primarily sell on rallies or consider arbitrage opportunities. Internationally, related purchase commitments have boosted expectations for US soybean exports, and US soybean planting progress has reached 67%, higher than 63% in the same period last year. Favorable weather conditions have put some pressure on the rise of US soybean futures. Domestically, the pressure from imported soybean arrivals continues to ease, oil mill operating rates are recovering, and soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. On the demand side, hog farming is suffering deep losses, and feed companies are mainly replenishing their inventories to meet immediate needs. The domestic supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies. (3) Corn: Sell on rallies. Recently, the main corn futures contract has been fluctuating at high levels. With the new wheat harvest approaching, some grain traders are clearing inventory, leading to increased shipments. However, downstream demand remains weak, resulting in sluggish market activity. Given the strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals are bearish. Coupled with recent rumors of rice auctions, this has further pushed corn futures and spot prices down. (4) Hogs: Enter the reverse arbitrage market. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on hog production capacity control, emphasizing the strict implementation of capacity reduction measures and stating that it will send working groups to promote their implementation. This led to short selling and a rise in the afternoon session. In the spot market, hog spot prices have been fluctuating recently. Supply pressure remains, demand is weak, and capacity reduction is slow. The initial supply of second-generation hogs was relatively large, and there may be further concentrated supply pressure later. It is recommended not to maintain naked short positions for now. The weak arbitrage situation continues, coupled with expectations of capacity reduction policies in the longer term, making it advisable to enter the reverse arbitrage market on rallies. (5) Eggs: A wait-and-see approach is recommended. Spot egg prices saw a slight pullback over the weekend. This was due to resistance from end-users to high prices after a continuous rise, and low restocking activity at all stages of the supply chain during the rainy season also put downward pressure on prices. Looking ahead, the number of laying hens in production may recover in June. Increased supply coupled with moderate demand could lead to a price correction. A wait-and-see approach is advised for now.

20:42:43

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Commodities Weaken from High Levels, Crude Oil Shows Weakness] ⑴ Crude Oil: Weakness is expected. Recent news regarding the US-Iran negotiations reaching some consensus has been released. Iranian officials recently stated that according to the preliminary draft agreement, the US will implement a 60-day ceasefire on all fronts, but the core issues remain unresolved. Geopolitical tensions are developing in a direction of easing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. As prices gradually become less sensitive to positive news, it is not advisable to chase high prices if energy and chemical commodities experience another impulsive surge. ⑵ Fuel Oil: Weakening from High Levels. Oil-producing countries reduced production during the Middle East conflict, and China's reliance on imported high-sulfur fuel oil is high. US-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate, but may develop in a direction of easing in the future. Consider shorting with a small position when the price rebounds to the resistance level and stagnates. ⑶ Asphalt: Weakening from High Levels. Today, the price of 70# heavy-grade asphalt in Shandong is 4370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. In June, the total output of local asphalt refineries in China was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons, or 28.5%, compared to the previous month. At the beginning of this week, the inventory of asphalt at 54 sample plants in China was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared to May 21; the inventory of social warehouses at 104 plants was 1.442 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared to May 21 and a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. Overall, the market is in a weak supply and demand situation, and asphalt is likely to fluctuate mainly in line with cost fluctuations. (4) Glass: The rebound potential may be limited. Today, shipments from enterprises in North China improved compared to the previous few days, and prices remained stable. The current daily output of the industry is 146,900 tons. Last week, upstream inventory increased by 44,000 weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 12.82%. The low supply provides some support for prices, while rising energy prices have driven up costs. A weak rebound is expected in the short term, but medium-term supply and demand pressures remain, and the upside potential is relatively cautious. (5) Soda Ash: The rebound potential may be limited. Today, the domestic soda ash market fluctuated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations. Plant operations fluctuated and adjusted, with the Jinshan No. 2 plant in Henan shut down for maintenance, resulting in a fluctuating downward trend in output. Downstream demand was lukewarm, with restocking occurring only as needed. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.701 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from last Thursday, a drop of 4.22%. Considering the persistently high coal costs and the large number of soda ash plants undergoing maintenance, prices may fluctuate and rebound in the short term, but the high supply and weak demand in the medium term are unlikely to change, limiting the upside potential. ⑹ Caustic soda: Fluctuating with a bearish bias. Today, the mainstream price of liquid soda ash in Shandong remained stable, while prices in southwestern and central Shandong showed mixed trends. Recently, there have been many plants undergoing maintenance and reducing production in Shandong, resulting in a significant reduction in supply. ⑺ Methanol: Weakening from high levels. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3125, down 40; the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2675, down 5. Today, futures continued to consolidate with a bearish bias. Trading in coastal areas was generally weak. Recently, influenced by the progress of geopolitical negotiations, the futures markets for commodities such as crude oil have seen a significant correction, leading to a weakening of methanol sentiment. This week's data shows that port inventory decreased by 73,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 9.99% week-on-week, while producer inventory was 343,500 tons, a decrease of 20,700 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 5.68% week-on-week. However, with the recent increase in news about US-Iran negotiations, the methanol market may experience a slightly weak and volatile trend.

20:41:24

[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous and New Energy Metals Generally Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Spot Price Falls to 175,450 Yuan/Ton] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Fluctuating. On the macro front, renewed tensions between the US and Iran, and the potential continuation of the inflationary shockwaves triggered by the Middle East conflict, have amplified market expectations for a Fed rate hike. On the fundamental front, the tight spot market has improved marginally, but the supply of high-quality copper remains tight, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, with companies mostly replenishing their stocks as needed. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Fluctuating. The macro front is also affected by tensions between the US and Iran and expectations of a rate hike. On the fundamental front, overseas supply gaps and low inventories continue to provide bottom support, while the unexpected accumulation of domestic inventories will continue, dragging down domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: Fluctuating. The macro front is affected by geopolitical tensions and expectations of a rate hike. Overseas processing fees remain low due to mining disruptions, smelters have extremely low production intentions, and strong expectations of supply contraction provide bottom support, but demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. (4) Precious Metals: Prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight downward bias. With renewed tensions between the US and Iran, the seesaw effect between crude oil and precious metals has led to a continued decline in precious metal prices. Considering the significant uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and strong expectations of a Fed rate hike, gold and silver prices are unlikely to see significant improvement and are expected to fluctuate with a slight downward bias. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Prices are expected to fluctuate downwards. Lithium prices have continued to fluctuate downwards. The previous rebound to 200,000 yuan/ton was mainly supported by factors such as contracted lithium mine supply in Jiangxi, tight overseas lithium mine shipments, and strong downstream demand. The current market logic has shifted. Lithium carbonate shipments from Chile and Argentina remain high, and with lithium mines from Zimbabwe arriving in July, the supply and demand situation is becoming more relaxed. The expectation of a medium-term supply easing continues to suppress the market. Downstream purchasing intentions are weak, spot prices have been successively lowered, and futures are showing a deep discount. Market open interest has declined, and funds continue to flow out. At present, there is no clear opportunity for bottom-fishing. Today, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,850 yuan to 175,450 yuan/ton.

20:40:48

[Caixin Futures: Ferrous Metals Show Divergence, Coking Coal Can Be Considered a Long Position in the Ferrous Metals Chain] ⑴ Steel: Fluctuating at low levels, valuations are declining. Current steel demand is insufficient, while supply remains high, resulting in a generally weak supply-demand outlook. The top 20 long and short positions in the rebar 10 contract showed roughly equal increases, while short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract decreased more significantly. Technically, the rebar 10 contract fluctuated and closed lower, and under pressure from the moving average group, it may continue its weak adjustment in the short term. In terms of valuation, the market is already below the cost of long-process rebar in East China and the off-peak electricity cost of independent electric arc furnaces (corresponding to around 3185), with a neutral to low valuation. Short-term upside and downside potential may be limited. Before a significant decrease in pig iron production, finished steel can still be considered a short position in the ferrous metals chain. ⑵ Iron Ore: Fluctuating at high levels, valuations are declining. On the supply side, shipments continue to recover, with a surge in shipments expected as the Australian fiscal year-end approaches in June; on the demand side, high pig iron production provides support for spot prices. Technically, the 09 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with attention focused on the support of the 60-day moving average; the fund flow showed little change between long and short positions. Iron ore valuations may decline in the short term, but the downside is limited before pig iron production decreases significantly. (3) Coking Coal: Fluctuating. Some suspended coal mines have resumed production, but with stricter safety regulations, supply recovery remains slow, and short-term coal prices continue to rise. In terms of funds, both long and short positions increased in the top 20, with long positions increasing more. Technically, the 09 contract closed positive after fluctuating, with short-term support at 1230 yuan/ton and resistance at 1290 yuan/ton. June is a month for safe production; attention should be paid to the speed of coal mine resumption and the regulatory risks of thermal coal prices. In the short term, coking coal can be considered a long position in the black chain. (4) Coke: Valuation shows support. Rising raw material prices have pushed up the immediate costs of coke producers, forcing some to reduce production, leading to a marginal decline in coke output. Pig iron production remains high, with strong demand supporting prices, and coke producers still have the willingness to raise prices. However, with the off-season for steel demand approaching, steel and coke may engage in another round of bargaining. After the fourth round of price increases was fully implemented, the corresponding warehouse receipt cost was 1880 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market will fluctuate around whether the fifth round of price increases will be implemented. (5) Manganese Silicon: Fluctuating. Manganese ore shipments continued to decline, port inventories shifted from increase to decrease, and factory operating rates rebounded slightly but remained low. The mentality of pressuring for lower prices was prominent, and overall supply and demand remained weak and stable. In the short term, the market may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw coal. Technically, the manganese silicon 07 contract rebounded after a reduction in open interest. Support is seen at the 10-day moving average, while resistance may be around 6050.

20:15:24

The weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9 in the United States was released

Previous : 4.22 Forecast : -

Published Value 3.58

Previous

20:11:04

[Repo Rates Jump 12 Basis Points, US Treasury Issuance Plummets by $30 Billion, 94% Probability of Fed Holding Rates Steady in June] ⑴ The overnight general secured repo rate opened flat at 3.69% on Wednesday, 12 basis points higher than the 10-day average of 3.57%. The rate did not fall as expected, indicating that the collateral market is preparing for outflows of $15 billion and $47 billion on Thursday and Friday, respectively, as well as month-end funding pressures. ⑵ The US Treasury announced on Tuesday that it would cut Treasury bill issuance by $30 billion. This week's repo rate rise may ease in the coming weeks as outflows cease. The Treasury clarified in its quarterly funding announcement that the Treasury bill issuance cuts will continue until mid-June. The overnight repo rate is expected to trade between 3.69% and 3.64%, with the 10-day average of 3.57% acting as a key resistance level. ⑶ The reverse repo rate on Wednesday was 3.50%. The last two reverse repo operations involved 5 and 6 institutions, with total demand of $970 million and $1.79 billion, respectively. The spread between 2-year Treasury bonds and repurchase rates widened by 10 basis points to 29 basis points, while demand for 10-year and 20-year bonds narrowed by 6 and 5 basis points to 16 and 9 basis points, respectively. (4) After the overnight collateral rate rose by 9 basis points to 3.69%, term collateral buying was revised upwards, currently 16.5 to 17.2 basis points higher than the 10-day average secured overnight funding rate of 3.55%. The 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month repurchase rates were 3.722%, 3.715%, and 3.717%, respectively. (5) The secured overnight funding rate futures price rose by 1.5 to 3 basis points, while the 0x3 overnight index swap was 3.644%, down 0.002% from the previous value. Based on the 10-day average of 3.55%, this pricing implies a 38% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the next 90 days. Federal funds futures indicate that the market is pricing in a 94% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its June meeting.

20:00:06

Brazil's IPCA month-on-month in May - the official leading indicator of inflation

Previous : 0.89% Forecast : 0.53%

Published Value 0.62%

Previous

20:00:06

Brazil's IPCA mid-month annual rate for May - the official leading indicator of inflation

Previous : 4.37% Forecast : 4.55%

Published Value 4.64%

Previous

19:50:26

[Used Car Price Fluctuations Driving Inflation, EVs Dragging Down Prices, SUVs Supporting Prices, Fed's Interest Rate Cuts Caught in a Dilemma] ⑴ The average price of a used car in the US market in May 2026 was approximately $26,000 to $30,166, with the CarGurus index showing an average price of $29,030, a monthly increase of 1.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. SUV and truck prices remained firm with slight increases of 1% to 5%, hybrid vehicles were relatively resilient, while pure electric vehicle prices fell by 5% to 10% year-on-year. Non-Tesla models saw even steeper declines, with average prices ranging from approximately $34,821 to $36,440, narrowing the price difference with gasoline vehicles from over $10,000 to only about $1,000. ⑵ Key changes on the supply side: A large number of off-lease vehicles will return in 2026, including over 300,000 pure electric vehicles whose leases expire, driving a surge in used EV supply. Used EV sales in the first quarter increased by 12% year-on-year. New car sales increased significantly by 24% year-on-year, and overall inventory days rebounded to 30 to 42 days, but are still below historical normal levels. Trump's tariff comments sparked market concerns about new car price increases, which in turn boosted demand for used cars, limiting a significant price drop. (3) Used cars account for approximately 2.76% of the US CPI, and monthly fluctuations typically only affect the overall CPI by about 0.05 to 0.2 percentage points. However, during the extreme period of 2021-2022, they contributed one-third of monthly inflation. Currently, the Manheim wholesale index is up about 4% year-on-year, while the retail CPI is flat or slightly down, providing a neutral to slightly positive impact on inflation. The Federal Reserve closely monitors used car prices as an early signal of commodity inflation. If the price increases driven by used SUVs and tariffs continue, it may strengthen inflation stickiness and delay further interest rate cuts; conversely, if EV price reductions dominate the market, it will support a more accommodative policy path.

19:42:53

[Canadian Used Car Prices Stall at High Level of CAD 34,000; Electrification Squeezes Out Traditional Models; Cooling Inflation Faces New Uncertainties] ⑴ As of March 2026, the national average price of used cars in Canada is approximately CAD 34,139 (for models manufactured after 2016 with low mileage), up 0.5% month-over-month and 3.25% year-over-year. Since September 2025, it has been stabilizing within a narrow range of approximately CAD 600. Platforms such as AutoTrader show average prices ranging from approximately CAD 33,200 to CAD 36,713, with some quarterly data showing a slight year-over-year decrease of 0.3%. The overall market is far above pre-pandemic levels, and price stickiness is exceeding expectations. ⑵ Significant differentiation exists among vehicle types. Pure electric vehicles face the greatest price pressure, with a record drop of CAD 1,765 in March 2026 alone. More than half of EV models are now below CAD 35,000, with popular models like the Tesla Model 3 becoming even more affordable. Hybrid models maintain stable prices due to strong demand and tight supply. SUVs and sports utility vehicles account for approximately 52% to 61% of listings, while sedans have shrunk to about 27%. The combined market share of EVs and hybrids has risen to about 11% to 12%, with EV searches surging 96% driven by rising oil prices. ⑶ From an inflation transmission perspective, used car prices have a significant weight in the transportation component of the Canadian CPI basket. The current average price is still up 3.25% year-on-year, meaning that the used car component continues to contribute positively to overall inflation, rather than the rapid decline previously expected by the market. The sharp drop in EV prices is structurally lowering the average price of used cars, but the resilience of SUVs and hybrid models is offsetting this. Listings have only increased by 3.1% year-on-year, inventory improvement is slow, and supply-side constraints have not yet been substantially alleviated. If supply recovery in the second half of the year is less than expected, the decline in used car prices may be limited, which will constrain the Bank of Canada's room for interest rate cuts, as transportation costs remain the second largest source of stickiness after service inflation. The mid-to-low price range of CAD 10,000 to CAD 15,000 remains the main driver of sales, but the supply of vehicles priced below CAD 20,000 continues to be tight, which puts particular pressure on the cost of living for low-income groups.

19:38:42

[Municipal bonds rebounded 4 to 9 basis points following US Treasuries, with market sentiment turning bullish, but caution is advised against a sharp drop due to a potential breakdown in peace talks] ⑴ The US municipal bond market rebounded across the board on Tuesday, with yields across all maturities falling 4 to 9 basis points, following the decline in US Treasuries, while US Treasuries themselves fell 5 to 8 basis points. Market expectations of a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran were the main driving force. Despite overnight events including a so-called "self-defense" strike by the US and threats of retaliation from Iran, the financial markets largely ignored these negative news and focused on hopes for a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. ⑵ Jim Quealy, head of municipal trading at Appleton Partners, said that the municipal bond market had previously under-followed the recent rebound in US Treasuries, and Tuesday's rally had a certain catch-up component. Jeff Timlin, managing partner at Sage Advisory, pointed out that the extremely bearish tone of the market last week may have caused yields across asset classes to deviate too far, and investors are now tentatively re-entering the market. Ajay Thomas, head of public finance at FHN Financial, described Tuesday as a "bond rush," with the approaching June 1st redemption date, expectations of peace in Iran putting downward pressure on oil prices, and last week's capital inflows all contributing to the increased attractiveness of municipal bonds. (3) Institutions generally remain cautious about the sustainability of the rebound. Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital, believes that hopes for peace may be dashed again, but overall, US Treasuries have found support. Andrew Clinton, CEO of Clinton Investment Management, pointed out that rising interest rates are largely driven by the situation in the Middle East; if the conflict stops or the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy prices will fall, the impact of inflation will weaken, and yields will naturally decline. Quealy warned that if municipal bonds rebound another 10 basis points without new news on Wednesday, they may be slightly overbought; more importantly, if peace talks break down, the market will "go back to square one" and trigger a new round of selling. Thomas observed that the stock-bond yield spread is narrowing, and some investors who believe the stock market is overbought may turn to the more stable bond market.

19:33:29

[US Repo Rates Hold Steady at 3.69%, Poised for $15 Billion and $47 Billion Outflows, Month-End Funding Pressures Emerging] ⑴ The US general secured repo rate opened flat at 3.69% on Wednesday, 12 basis points higher than the 10-day average of 3.57%. The failure of rates to fall indicates that the collateral market is preparing for outflows of up to $15 billion and $47 billion on Thursday and Friday, respectively, while month-end funding pressures are also building. ⑵ The US Treasury announced yesterday that it would cut Treasury issuance by $30 billion. Therefore, after this week's rise in repo rates, rates may fall in the coming weeks as the outflows cease. The Treasury stated in its quarterly funding announcement that the Treasury issuance cuts will continue until mid-June. The general secured repo rate is expected to trade between 3.69% and 3.64%. If overnight rates decline, the 10-day average of 3.57% will act as resistance. (3) The spread between 2-year Treasury bonds and general secured repo rates widened by 10 basis points to 29 basis points, indicating increased demand for this maturity. Demand for 10-year and 20-year bonds decreased by 6 and 5 basis points respectively to 16 and 9 basis points. The overnight reverse repo operation volume increased from $970 million last Friday to $1.79 billion on Monday, with the number of participating institutions increasing from 5 to 6. Pricing of the overnight index swap 0x3 maturity indicates a 38% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the next 90 days. Secured overnight financing rate futures prices rose across the board by 1.5 to 3 basis points, corresponding to a 4% drop in spot crude oil prices.

19:00:04

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending May 22 week-on-week

Previous : -2.30% Forecast : -

Published Value -8.50%

Previous

19:00:04

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending May 22 in the United States

Previous : 170.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 169.70

Previous

19:00:03

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending May 22 in the United States

Previous : 920.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 753.70

Previous

19:00:03

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending May 22

Previous : 6.56% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.65%

Previous

19:00:03

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending May 22

Previous : 283.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 259.40

Previous

18:33:33

[Iranian uncertainty limits pound's upside potential; UK energy price cap slashed by 13%, but supermarket inflation falls to 3.1%] ⑴ The pound weakened against the euro for the second consecutive trading day, remaining relatively stable against the dollar at 1.3452. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East peace process kept traders cautious. While the nearly 7% drop in oil prices this week provided some respite for import-dependent currencies like the pound, the overall trading range was narrow and volatility was subdued, reflecting a lack of clear trading direction among investors. ⑵ On Wednesday, the UK energy regulator Ofgem slashed its energy price cap by 13%, the largest increase in over two years, mainly due to the Middle East conflict pushing up wholesale gas prices. Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB, pointed out that the increased use of renewable energy in the UK meant that this price cap increase was less than that during the 2022 Ukraine crisis. If a peace agreement is reached in the coming days and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, energy prices could fall further, thus limiting future bill increases. (3) Regarding supermarket inflation, Worldpanel data shows that in the four weeks ending May 17, the UK grocery inflation rate slowed to 3.1% from 3.8% in the previous period, the lowest pace since December 2024. However, the full impact of the Iranian conflict has not yet been fully transmitted to supermarket prices. Money market data indicates that traders expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates once this year, with a less than 50% chance of a second rate hike, suggesting that market concerns about the impact of inflationary pressures on the economy have eased compared to two weeks ago.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4539.78

44.19

(0.98%)

XAG

 75.274

-0.343

(-0.45%)

CONC

 87.76

-1.14

(-1.28%)

OILC

 91.59

-0.81

(-0.88%)

USD

 98.932

-0.077

(-0.08%)

EURUSD

 1.1660

0.0001

(0.01%)

GBPUSD

 1.3456

0.0001

(0.01%)

USDCNH

 6.7632

0.0001

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Risk Disclosure
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