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2026-09-17 Thursday

2026-09-22

18:53:16

[Massive Debt Amid Non-Recession Period Raises Concerns About US Fiscal Path] ⑴ Despite ongoing discussions about fiscal responsibility, Washington lawmakers continue to push up the already high US debt burden. ⑵ The US annual deficit reached approximately $1.8 trillion in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, and the remaining two months mean the full-year deficit will exceed $2 trillion. ⑶ In non-pandemic years, the US annual deficit has never exceeded $1.8 trillion. ⑷ The current economic growth, low unemployment, and lack of a national emergency forcing government intervention have led officials to describe this situation as "abnormal." ⑸ High borrowing costs are a major driver, with US Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high of approximately 5.3% this month. ⑹ As national debt continues to climb, creditors are more wary of the federal government's ability to repay, demanding higher returns. This means that nearly 20 cents of every dollar of tax revenue goes towards interest payments, higher than the previous record set in 1991. ⑺ The real problem lies in Washington's unrestrained spending spree. Democrats insist on more federal programs, existing welfare costs are constantly inflating, and the annual deficit continues to widen. (8) Federal spending increased by about 5% year-over-year this year, while revenue grew by only about 3%. (9) Last year's signature Republican budget reconciliation plan promised to cut government waste and maintain low tax rates, but failed to address the root causes of federal spending growth. Without serious welfare reform, tax cuts will only widen the budget deficit. (10) A nonpartisan organization estimates that the plan will increase the national debt by about $3.4 trillion over 10 years, reaching about $4.5 trillion including interest. (11) Tax cuts are a wise way to stimulate economic growth, but they must be offset by meaningful spending cuts; simply addressing the books will not fix the deficit. (12) Controlling the annual deficit requires looking forward, and the government is asking Congress to increase discretionary spending by about 19%, which would be the second-largest increase in at least 60 years. Lawmakers must comprehensively examine their reliance on deficit spending.

18:42:47

[Fall in Oil Prices, Driving a Slight Rebound in US Treasuries; Yield Curve Flattens] ⑴ US Treasuries rebounded slightly in active overnight trading, further flattening the yield curve, with good trading volume for the 10-year contract. ⑵ The September contract fluctuated between 105-21.5 and 106-02, last quoted around 105-29.5. ⑶ A large transaction occurred in the London morning session, involving approximately 4,200 lots of 10-year Treasury bonds, hedging approximately 1,600 lots of ultra-long-term Treasury bonds. ⑷ Traders said that macro accounts were particularly active on the curve, mainly steepening operations between the mid- and long-term ends. ⑸ A London trader stated that the market lacked confident buying, with 10-year Treasury futures only slightly higher than the settlement price, while WTI crude oil fell by more than $2, declining for the second consecutive trading day. (6) The S&P 500 performed strongly, rising about 60 points, or about 1%. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose about 1%, following a 0.3% increase in the Nikkei 225. The CSI 300 fell about 1%. (7) German government bonds were weak, mainly reflecting a sell-off in Europe following Wednesday's Fed meeting. German bonds fell nearly 0.25 basis points from the settlement price, and the spread between 10-year US Treasury yields and German bonds widened by about 1.5 basis points to about 146 basis points from the European close. (8) The US dollar gave back some of the gains it had made on Wednesday, boosted by the Fed. The dollar index fell back to around 100.16, the yen strengthened to around 155.62 yen per dollar, the euro and pound sterling strengthened slightly, and gold prices rebounded to around $4,313.75 per ounce.

18:36:39

[Asian Naphtha Prices Fall Along with Brent, Supply Concerns Limit Declines] ⑴ Asian naphtha prices fell on Thursday, following crude oil benchmarks, but continued supply concerns in the Gulf region limited the decline. ⑵ First-half November cargo prices fell by about $22 to around $943 per ton, with the market maintaining a deep backwardation structure; the price difference between the first half of November and the first half of December was approximately $29 per ton. ⑶ Refining margins for naphtha against Brent crude rose by about $5 to around $160 per ton. ⑷ In the bidding market, traders reported that LG Chem purchased up to 25,000 tons of naphtha for the second half of November at a premium, while Japan's AMEC purchased 25,000 tons of supply for the second half of October at a discount. ⑸ In the gasoline market, trade sources indicated that Indonesia's state-owned oil company Pertamina is seeking multiple shipments of benchmark-grade fuel for the first half of October, following its purchase at a premium of 400,000 barrels of fuel for shipment between September 24 and 27. (6) Inventory data shows that light distillate fuel stocks, including naphtha and gasoline, rose to approximately 13.81 million barrels, the highest level since May 27. (7) Naphtha imports totaled approximately 162,000 tons, with Kuwait leading the way at nearly 48,000 tons, followed by Trinidad and Tobago at approximately 31,000 tons; Singapore exported approximately 13,900 tons of naphtha, all destined for Indonesia. (8) Gasoline imports totaled approximately 303,000 tons, while exports totaled approximately 785,000 tons. (9) In related news, the Indian government ordered an immediate reduction in export windfall taxes on gasoline, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel. (10) Preliminary vessel tracking data shows that only three cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 12 the previous day and far below the 10-day average of approximately 17.

18:14:07

[Fed Rate Hike Implemented, Consumer Credit and Corporate Financing Costs Face Upward Pressure] ⑴ The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years, increasing the interest rate range to 3.75% to 4%. Against the backdrop of Middle East conflicts driving up energy prices and potentially more persistent inflation, consumer borrowing costs face upward pressure. ⑵ Some economists point out that credit costs will rise along with the prime lending rate, and loan pricing will adjust accordingly. Savings and credit unions and some banks use the prime lending rate as the starting point for loan pricing, and deposit rates may also be slightly adjusted accordingly. ⑶ The economist stated that while this adjustment may not be significant, it will put pressure on bank profit margins. ⑷ Some institutional executives believe that in addition to credit cards, personal loans, auto loans, and housing credit lines being affected, corporate financing costs will also rise across the board, from operating credit lines to new corporate bond issuances. ⑸ The executive emphasized that the market is more focused on the interest rate path outlined in the latest summary of economic projections than on the rate hike itself, which shows that the Fed is more cautious than it was in June. (6) The average federal funds rate forecast for 2026 and 2027 is now around 4.1%, up from approximately 3.8% and 3.6% respectively in June, implying that the Fed expects to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. (7) The long-term interest rate forecast has risen from approximately 3.1% to approximately 3.2%, a subtle change indicating that the Fed considers the neutral interest rate level to be slightly higher than before. (8) The executive pointed out that this signals to the market that although the Fed has begun cutting rates since 2025, the future path will be more gradual and less generous than expected, and the Fed is facing the dilemma that the economy can withstand higher interest rates while inflation is so stubborn that it necessitates further rate hikes.

18:07:00

[Fed Rate Hike Stabilizes Credibility, Market Focuses on Next Central Bank] ⑴ The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and policymakers expect at least one more hike this year. Chairman Warsh stated that the 25-basis-point move "removed a dose of easing." ⑵ Some believe the Fed is rebuilding its credibility in combating inflation, but uncertainty surrounding the rate hike path could still trigger volatility in stock and bond markets in the coming weeks. ⑶ US Treasury bonds followed the forward curve after the Fed's decision, with trading volume in 10-year Treasury futures significantly increasing during the New York morning session. ⑷ Japanese government bonds rebounded ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan meeting, as the yen and other Asian currencies weakened after the Fed's rate hike, putting more pressure on the Bank of Japan. ⑸ Markets are focused on the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday. Most economists expect it to hold rates steady, but soaring energy prices could force some members to support a rate hike. ⑹ Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds fell to approximately $618 billion in July, the lowest level since August 2008, reflecting a shift in Beijing's reserve management methods and a deepening economic rift between the two countries. (7) The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill granting President Trump new tariff authorization, aimed at pressuring Russia's largest importer of oil and gas as a form of punishment for Moscow. (8) U.S. economic data released that day included August housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September, and August pending home sales. (9) The U.S. Treasury announced a multi-maturity Treasury bond issuance plan and auctioned 4-week, 8-week, and reopened 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), while also conducting liquidity repurchase operations.

18:06:36

[European and American bond markets under pressure as short-term yields rise after Fed rate hike] ⑴ Eurozone short-term government bond yields rose on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a rate hike and signaled further tightening to curb inflation. ⑵ The Fed raised its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first rate hike in three years. Its forecasts show that most policymakers expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. ⑶ Some analysts believe the Fed's message was clear: more rate hikes are coming, and its overall stance is hawkish. ⑷ The size and importance of the US economy, and the Fed's influence on other central banks, mean that US monetary policy often impacts global bond markets. ⑸ The yield on German 10-year government bonds, the Eurozone benchmark, rose by about 1.5 basis points to around 3.53%, slightly below the 17-year high of 3.57% reached on Tuesday. ⑹ The policy-sensitive short-term trend was more pronounced, with the yield on German 2-year government bonds rising by about 3.5 basis points to around 3.25%, showing an inverse relationship between bond yields and prices. (7) The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level in more than two years after the Federal Reserve's decision, before slightly retreating to around 4.72% on Thursday. (8) While the Fed is making headlines, European investors are also focused on high oil and gas prices, increasing the risk that the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to raise interest rates again. (9) Brent crude futures have fallen slightly in the past two days, but remain above $104 per barrel, keeping inflation concerns alive. (10) Some analysts say that a rapid decline in energy prices is needed to prevent the ECB from raising interest rates again. (11) The ECB raised its deposit rate for the second time this year last week to curb rising energy-driven inflation. (12) Revised data from Eurostat showed that overall consumer prices rose 3.2% year-on-year in August, higher than the ECB's 2% target. The market expects a greater than 40% probability of an ECB rate hike at its October meeting and has fully priced in three 25-basis-point rate hikes by June next year.

17:49:00

[Low European Gas Inventories Amid Combined Economic and Political Pressures] ⑴ Lagging gas restocking in Europe, coupled with near-historic high prices for refined oil products like diesel, is putting increasing pressure on governments to curb public discontent and the rise of far-right forces. ⑵ This problem is particularly pronounced in Germany, where the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won a state election last week, with its platform calling for peaceful coexistence with Moscow and the restoration of cheap Russian gas contracts. ⑶ If the party gains further ground in this weekend's state elections, it will increase pressure on Chancellor Merz, making him more passive in considering costly measures to lower fuel prices. ⑷ Industry data shows that European gas inventories are about 69% full, lower than the average of about 85% over the same period in the past five years. ⑸ Germany and the Netherlands together account for about 35% of the EU's storage capacity, but restocking is significantly lagging behind. High energy prices are discouraging private companies from buying, and governments have not enforced national gas storage targets. ⑹ Analysts say the market previously bet that the Middle East conflict would end quickly and prices would fall, allowing for affordable restocking, but this assessment is becoming increasingly unreliable. (7) Some strategists point out that for every month Europe delays restocking, price pressures will increase as the peak winter gas consumption season approaches. (8) Compared to the energy shock of 2022, the current economic situation is less critical in some respects. Countries have diversified their energy sources, and a softening labor market has limited wage demands, helping to curb inflation. (9) However, governments are still hoping for a mild winter. The European Central Bank raised interest rates last week, and policymakers warned that if energy price pressures do not subside, further rate hikes may be necessary. (10) With global oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, EU gasoline prices have increased by about 24% year-on-year, diesel by about 38%, and aviation fuel costs by over 100%. (11) The benchmark price for natural gas is approximately €81 per megawatt-hour, up about 150% year-on-year, higher than the European Central Bank's adverse scenario forecast, with risks skewed towards higher readings. (12) Some institutions predict that, depending on the weather, gas prices could rise to €100 per megawatt-hour, and say that relying on weather to ensure supply is a high-risk bet.

17:43:52

[Malaysian Stocks Close Lower, US Treasury Yields and Fed Tightening Expectations Dominate Sentiment] ⑴ Malaysian stock market indices closed lower after volatile trading, with market sentiment weighed down by rising US Treasury yields and concerns about potential further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. ⑵ Analysts pointed out that these factors continued to put pressure on market risk appetite, and investors remained cautious overall. ⑶ The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI closed down about 4 points, or about 0.3%, at around 1674 points, after the previous trading day was closed for Malaysia Day. ⑷ The index opened slightly lower and fluctuated between 1670 and 1685 points during the day, showing an overall weak trend. ⑸ Market breadth was weak, with the number of declining stocks significantly exceeding the number of advancing stocks; approximately 673 stocks declined while approximately 465 stocks advanced. ⑹ In terms of trading volume, volume rebounded slightly to approximately 3.6 billion shares, with a turnover of approximately 3.25 billion ringgit, a slight increase compared to the previous trading day. (7) Analysts maintain a cautious bias towards Malaysian stocks given the high yields on US Treasury bonds and the uncertain global interest rate outlook. (8) However, as major indices approach oversold territory, recent weakness may gradually attract bargain hunters, especially for fundamentally sound stocks. (9) Investors will also be watching the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and Malaysian inflation data for further clues about regional monetary policy and domestic price pressures. (10) Technically, major indices have formed another bearish candlestick pattern, maintaining a pullback pattern. Short-term resistance levels are at 1687 and 1700 points, while support levels are at 1666 and 1655 points. (11) Among heavyweight stocks, Malayan Banking and CIMB declined, while Public Bank and Tenaga Nasional remained flat. Some healthcare and consumer stocks also saw slight declines. (12) Market sentiment remains influenced by concerns about the external interest rate environment and Trump's tariff rhetoric in the short term. Going forward, attention will be focused on whether regional policy signals and domestic inflation data can provide directional guidance.

17:20:08

[Notice from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited (CSDC) Regarding Securities Funds Settlement and Clearing Arrangements During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Holidays in 2026] In accordance with the "Notice from CSDC Regarding Securities Funds Settlement and Clearing Arrangements During the Holidays in 2026," the arrangements for securities funds settlement and clearing during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2026 are as follows: I. September 23, 24, 29, and 30, 2026 are newly added trading days for Hong Kong Stock Connect. II. For securities transactions occurring on September 24, 2026, and general pledged repurchase agreements maturing on that day, the settlement date is September 24, 2026, and the delivery date is September 28, 2026. For securities transactions occurring on September 28, 2026, and general-purpose pledged repurchase agreements for bonds maturing between September 25 and September 28, 2026, the settlement date is September 28, 2026, and the delivery date is September 29, 2026. For securities transactions occurring on September 30, 2026, and general-purpose pledged repurchase agreements for bonds maturing on that day, the settlement date is September 30, 2026, and the delivery date is October 8, 2026. For securities transactions occurring on October 8, 2026, and general-purpose pledged repurchase agreements for bonds maturing between October 1 and October 8, 2026, the settlement date is October 8, 2026, and the delivery date is October 9, 2026. III. For B-share transactions and delisted B-share transactions occurring on September 22, 23, and 24, 2026, the settlement dates are September 28, 29, and 30, 2026, respectively. For Shanghai Stock Exchange B-share transactions occurring on September 28, 29, and 30, 2026, the settlement dates are October 8, 9, and 13, 2026, respectively. For Shenzhen Stock Exchange B-share transactions and delisted B-share transactions occurring on September 28, 29, and 30, 2026, the settlement dates are October 8, 9, and 12, 2026, respectively. IV. For details regarding the settlement arrangements for Hong Kong Stock Connect business, the corresponding record dates for Hong Kong Stock Connect equity, Shanghai and Shenzhen market B-to-H share conversion business, and H-share "full circulation" business during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays in 2026, please refer to the original text.

17:08:10

Eurozone August Harmonized CPI (excluding tobacco) final reading

Previous : 103.21 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.66

Previous

17:08:09

Eurozone August final CPI reading excluding tobacco

Previous : 103.21 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.66

Previous

17:00:10

Eurozone August blended CPI (excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) final reading

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

17:00:10

Eurozone August Core Harmonized CPI YoY - Final Unadjusted

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.10%

Previous

17:00:10

Eurozone August harmonized CPI annual rate excluding tobacco final reading

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.20%

Previous

17:00:00

Eurozone August core harmonized CPI final reading

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.40%

US Dollar
Euro

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

17:00:00

Eurozone August harmonized CPI month-on-month final reading

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

17:00:00

Eurozone August blended CPI (excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) final reading

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.40%

Neutral

Published Value 2.40%

Previous

17:00:00

Eurozone August Harmonized CPI Annual Rate - Final Unadjusted

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : 3.30%

US Dollar
Euro

Published Value 3.20%

Previous

16:56:11

Taiwan's third-quarter discount rate - unadjusted

Previous : 2% Forecast : 2%

Neutral

Published Value 2%

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