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2025-09-16 Tuesday

2025-09-19

22:00:14

[The resilience of the US consumer market cannot mask hidden concerns; talk of tariff increases may become a stumbling block to growth] ⑴ US consumer data showed remarkable resilience, with retail sales growing 0.6% in August, exceeding expectations. Core retail sales rose 0.7%, indicating active consumer spending across a range of goods and dining out. ⑵ While rising prices partially inflated the sales figures, US consumers remained remarkably willing to spend. Service spending, particularly at restaurants and bars, a barometer of household finances, grew 0.7%, suggesting the US consumer base remains solid, reducing the risk of a recession. ⑶ However, signs of weakness in the US job market cannot be ignored. Despite the strong retail sales data, signs of a loosening labor market, such as slowing wage growth and rising unemployment, cast a shadow over the sustainability of future US consumer spending growth. ⑷ Furthermore, the uncertainty created by talk of tariff increases and the resulting concerns in the US market could pose potential downside risks to the continued health of the economy. While US consumers still have the ability to spend, heightened concerns about the job market suggest a potential slowdown in US consumer growth in the second half of the year. ⑸ Data show that consumer spending growth is weakest among young Americans and certain age groups (born between 1965 and 1980), which may be related to the fact that the salary increase brought about by job hopping is not as high as before, further highlighting the impact of labor market changes on the consumption capacity of different groups.

22:00:04

U.S. July retail inventory seasonally adjusted monthly rate - excluding auto repair values

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

22:00:02

U.S. business inventory monthly rate for July

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.20%

Neutral

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

22:00:01

The NAHB Real Estate Market Index for the United States in September

Previous : 32 Forecast : 33

Published Value 32

Previous

21:57:46

[Inflation Curve Slightly Rises, Central Bank Decision Uncertain] ⑴ Canada's annualized inflation rate rose to 1.9% in August, up from 1.7% in July and slightly below economists' expectations of 2%. "However, this figure has remained below the Bank of Canada's target range for five consecutive months." Rising oil prices were the primary driver of the inflation rebound. Excluding oil prices, the annualized core inflation rate fell to 2.4%, compared to 2.5% for the previous three months. "In addition, the Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measure (the average of the CPI trim and CPI median) fell slightly to 3.05%, down from 3.1% in the previous month." ⑵ Despite the rebound in August inflation data, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to make significant monetary policy adjustments at its interest rate meeting on Wednesday. Analysts point out that the marginal decline in core inflation and the continued below-target performance of overall inflation provide the central bank with reason to "ignore" recent oil price fluctuations and maintain interest rates unchanged. The market generally expects the Bank of Canada to pause its rate hikes and potentially signal a dovish tone, shifting focus to potential future rate cuts. ⑶ From a trading perspective, market participants have converged on a dovish stance regarding the central bank's policy. Small changes in the data, such as a moderation in core inflation, could have a greater impact on its decision-making. If the central bank shows a more dovish stance at this meeting, it could trigger short-term fluctuations in the Canadian dollar, but the long-term trend will still depend on the evolution of overall economic fundamentals and the global macroeconomic environment.

21:46:26

The United States Launches a $5 Billion Mining Fund to Accelerate Independent Development of Critical Minerals. (1) On Tuesday, the United States announced that it was in talks with New York-based investment firm Orion Resource Partners to establish a $5 billion mining fund aimed at strengthening the security of critical mineral supply chains. If implemented, this plan would represent one of the U.S. government's most significant commercial ventures in the resources sector. (2) Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Orion are discussing cooperation in mineral development in strategic regions around the world, with a particular focus on mining projects in Ukraine, Greenland, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Notably, the fund may prioritize investments in key new energy minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths to support the development of the U.S. electric vehicle and clean energy industries. This strategy aligns with the Trump administration's previous initiative to promote mining cooperation in Ukraine and Greenland, as well as the White House's focus on mining investment in Congo. (3) Analysts indicate that if the partnership with Orion is finalized, it would mark the first time the U.S. government has directly invested in a large-scale global mining transaction through direct equity investment, a move aimed at reducing reliance on minerals from countries like China and enhancing supply chain resilience. Key details are still under negotiation, and a final agreement remains uncertain.

21:43:43

[OpenAI Unveils ChatGPT User Behavior: Women Make Up Over Half of Users for the First Time] (1) The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) recently released a working paper submitted by OpenAI. Based on data from 1.5 million conversations, it presents the first comprehensive overview of user interactions with ChatGPT since its launch in 2022. By July 2025, the AI tool's weekly active users exceeded 700 million, covering one-tenth of the world's adult population. (2) The report reveals a significant shift in user demographics: initially, males accounted for over 80% of users, but as AI became more widespread, females accounted for over half of users for the first time in July 2025. In terms of age distribution, young people aged 18 to 25 contribute nearly half of all messages. Geographic penetration is also broad, with faster growth in low- and middle-income countries. India, the largest download market, accounts for 13.7% of global installations, confirming that AI productivity gains are not exclusive to wealthy nations. ⑶ Contrary to the capital market's positioning of AI as a "productivity tool", non-work uses are growing even more rapidly: in mid-2024, non-work-related conversations accounted for 53%, and a year later it had risen to 73%. Demands for entertainment, learning, and life consultation gradually surpassed workplace applications. Among the conversation topics, practical guidance (29%), information query (24%), and writing (24%) accounted for nearly 80% in total, of which the proportion of information query almost doubled in a year, indicating that ChatGPT is partially replacing search engine functions. ⑷ In comparison, programming-related conversations accounted for only 4.2%, while the hotly discussed AI companions and game conversations accounted for even lower proportions, at 1.9% and 0.5% respectively. From the perspective of user intent, asking questions accounted for 49%, ranking first among all types of behaviors, highlighting the "consultant attribute" of ChatGPT. This feature is more obvious among highly educated and high-paid professionals, who prefer to use AI as a consulting tool rather than a simple task execution assistant.

21:43:22

[Dollar Pullback Ignites Volatility Rally: Options Market Emerges New Trading Signals] ⑴ The recent weakening of the US dollar has caused implied volatility in FX options to rebound from long-term lows, heightening market concerns about a potential breakout. Demand has increased significantly for short-dated EUR/USD and GBP/USD options, in particular, suggesting traders may be underestimating their upside potential. ⑵ EUR/USD risk reversals have historically tilted bearish, but with the recent decline in the US dollar, implied volatility has also risen. For example, a typical €30 million options trade saw implied volatility for the one-month contract rise from 6.5% to 7.05%, an increase of over €15,000 in premium. ⑶ Despite continued pressure on the British pound from UK fiscal uncertainty, risk reversals in GBP/USD have yet to see the rare bullish call premium. However, GBP/USD recently broke through a key Fibonacci level, putting it on track to challenge the three-year high of 1.3787 set in July, pushing one-month implied volatility to 6.8% from last week's low of nearly 6.0%. (4) The AUD/USD pair has broken through its 2025 high, targeting the 0.6700 mark this week. A successful breakout could trigger a new rally and further boost volatility demand. Market expectations for an upward breakout are beginning to bear fruit. (5) The US monetary policy decision, due on Wednesday (Beijing time), is expected to maintain market uncertainty, supporting implied volatility. A dovish outcome, such as a 50 basis point rate cut, as expected by some banks, could be a catalyst for a broad recovery in volatility.

21:32:42

[US Crude Oil Technical Analysis] Looking at the hourly WTI candlestick chart, the Bollinger Bands clearly indicate the market's momentum: the upper band is at 63.84, the middle band is at 63.31, and the lower band is at 62.79. The recent price has broken above the upper band and is trading near 64.00, forming a "close-fitting" pattern with the upper band, indicating strong short-term momentum. Over the past two days, the price has initially built an upward momentum from the low of 61.69, before encountering resistance near 63.95. Today's long-term bullish trend has pushed the price higher again, piercing the previous high. Regarding momentum indicators, the MACD is above zero, with a DIFF of 0.13, a DEA of 0.10, and a bar value of 0.06, indicating moderate expansion. This suggests a predominance of trend-based buying, but the slope is not extreme. If the subsequent bar shortens or even turns green, caution should be exercised for a pullback confirmation following a "false breakout." The relative strength index (RSI) (14) reading is 68.93, approaching the "overbought gate", showing signs of overheating in the short term. Combined with the K-line approaching the upper Bollinger band, it is easy to induce a mean reversion-style technical retracement. In terms of structure and price, if it can stabilize above 64.00 at the hourly closing level and break through with large volume, the bulls will target the space above 64.10, and further targets will be around 64.40. In terms of support, 63.36-63.31 (the dense area near the middle band) is the watershed between bulls and bears. If it falls below, it will open the window for a retracement to 62.89 and 62.79 (the lower Bollinger band); if it breaks below 62.79 and is accompanied by a MACD death cross and the RSI falls back below 50, the short-term trend will shift from the "edge of the rising channel" to the "consolidation-fallback" rhythm.

21:26:32

U.S. industrial output for August year-on-year - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 1.43% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.87%

Previous

21:22:40

German Bund Auctions to Begin, Ten-Year Yields Hover at Highs, Hidden Signs of Multiple Negative Factors: (1) Germany will auction €2.5 billion of 30-year bonds on Wednesday (Beijing Time), targeting both old and current maturities of August 2048 and August 2056. Institutions noted that this mix is identical to the July auction, where the 8/48 bond received a strong 4.6 times oversubscription, while the 8/56 bond attracted only €1.58 billion in bids, well below the €1.5 billion target. This suggests market sentiment may remain cautious. (2) The current 30-year German Bund yield is 3.30%, slightly above the low of 3.24% reached on September 11, but still some distance from the high of 3.435% reached on September 3. Notably, 3.435% is the lowest level for 30-year German Bunds since July 2011, potentially signaling potential value. (3) Despite multi-year high yields, market participants remain generally cautious. Persistent and stubborn global inflation, coupled with deglobalization trends, could lead to inflation lingering at high levels. Furthermore, Germany's significantly expanded fiscal policy, the already strained fiscal positions of other Western countries, the Dutch pension plan's shift from defined benefit to defined contribution, and even concerns about the independence of the US central bank are all weighing on long-term bonds. The upward trend in bond yields since mid-June may therefore have a deeper meaning, demonstrating that investors are considering multiple factors, including macroeconomics, fiscal policy, and geopolitics, when making decisions. This leads to a more conservative trading mentality and a more cautious balance of potential returns and risks.

21:17:59

U.S. manufacturing capacity utilization rate in August

Previous : 76.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 76.80%

Previous

21:15:24

U.S. capacity utilization rate in August

Previous : 77.50% Forecast : 77.40%

Neutral

Published Value 77.40%

Previous

21:15:24

U.S. manufacturing output monthly rate for August

Previous : 0% Forecast : -0.20%

Published Value 0.20%

Previous

21:15:20

U.S. industrial output monthly rate for August

Previous : -0.10% Forecast : -0.10%

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

21:08:34

Agricultural product bulls rejoice, while the US dollar comes under pressure, aligning with trade optimism. (1) Chicago wheat, corn, and soybean futures generally rose on Tuesday. Wheat futures rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, reclaiming the contract low reached last week. Export inspection data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Monday showed that US wheat export inspections reached 755,073 tons last week, far exceeding market expectations. Asian flour traders are increasing imports of US wheat due to competitive pricing from US suppliers and shipping delays in the Black Sea region. Furthermore, Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, will significantly increase wheat export tariffs effective September 17, further boosting the prospects for competitive suppliers. (2) With the Federal Reserve expected to initiate a cycle of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index fell to a two-month low, maintaining the competitiveness of US agricultural exports. Institutional analysts point out that investors are optimistic about the upcoming Fed policy decision. If the central bank sends a dovish signal, it could further weaken the US dollar and support agricultural futures. On the same day, corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.8% to $4.26-3/4 per bushel, and soybean futures rose 0.7% to $10.49-3/4 per bushel. ⑶ Corn prices remained strong during a record-breaking U.S. harvest season, thanks to strong export demand. Doubts about U.S. production expectations also provided some support. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed that corn and soybean crop ratings have declined. Analysts believe that the market may remain consolidated in the next few days and may return to recent lows if no agreement is reached. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is working with Congress to assess whether financial assistance is needed for farmers.

21:07:55

[The Hedging Wave Reveals a "Crowded Trade," with Wall Street Bullish and the US Dollar Bearish] ⑴ Despite recent market concerns about a weakening US dollar, many overseas investors appear to be adopting a "crowded trade" strategy: bullish on US stocks while hedging against downside risks to the US dollar. Data shows that over 80% of funds flowing into US stocks this year have been currency hedged, and approximately 50% of funds flowing into US Treasuries have also been hedged. This means that nearly two-thirds of overseas funds flowing into US assets have included currency risk protection. ⑵ This phenomenon appears to deviate from the "de-dollarization" trend previously predicted by some market participants. If de-dollarization were to occur, it would typically be accompanied by a decline in the attractiveness of US dollar assets. However, major US stock indices are currently hitting record highs, and even long-term Treasury bonds are performing strongly. This suggests that while investors may be cautious about the outlook for the US dollar, the resilience and potential returns of US assets, particularly the strong growth in the technology sector, continue to attract global capital. ⑶ The logic behind this move is that investors prefer to lock in losses from a declining US dollar while continuing to enjoy the potential gains of US assets. Historically, investors have been less inclined to hedge against dollar risks due to concerns that a sharp correction in the U.S. stock market would often be accompanied by risk aversion, pushing up the dollar. However, recent market turmoil, such as the volatility caused by the "Liberation Day" tariff rhetoric, may have changed this traditional view. Investors seem to believe that even if U.S. assets perform well, they are unwilling to bear the accompanying exchange rate fluctuations. (4) Although the market is generally bearish on the U.S. dollar, for reasons including the possibility that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates while most central banks are nearing the end of their rate hike cycle, as well as concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation, the appeal of U.S. assets remains undiminished. In particular, since April 8, U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, have shown an astonishing recovery momentum. Some institutional analysts pointed out that overseas investors tend to hold U.S. assets for the long term, valuing their growth potential, corporate governance, and opportunities in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence (AI). This "bullish on Wall Street, bearish on the dollar" strategy reflects that in the current environment, investors favor the U.S. market when seeking profit opportunities globally.

20:55:23

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending September 8

Previous : 6.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30%

Previous

20:47:47

[Oil and Gas Production Decline Accelerates, Market Supply Faces a Critical Situation] ⑴ The latest data from the agency shows that global oil and gas field production is declining at an accelerating rate, with mature fields experiencing average annual production declines of 5.6% (conventional oil) and 6.8% (conventional natural gas), respectively. ⑵ This trend indicates a growing global reliance on shale oil and deepwater oil and gas resources, requiring companies to invest more to maintain current production levels. ⑶ The agency's executive director noted that nearly 90% of upstream investment is used annually to offset production losses from existing oil and gas fields, with only a small portion used to meet demand growth. ⑷ If upstream investment were halted, global oil supply would decline by 5.5 million barrels annually, equivalent to the combined production of Brazil and Norway, posing a severe challenge to the market and energy security. ⑸ The decline in natural gas production is also becoming increasingly significant, with annual losses increasing from 180 billion cubic meters to 270 billion cubic meters. (6) It is worth noting that the agency's previous report on clean energy policy has sparked some market concerns, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has criticized the agency's forecasts for suppressing investment and exacerbating market uncertainty. (7) OPEC emphasized that it has always advocated for timely investment in the oil industry to address declining production and meet growing demand.

20:42:44

The annual rate of the US import price index in August

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

Previous

20:39:17

The annual rate of retail sales in the United States in August

Previous : 3.92% Forecast : -

Published Value 5%

Previous

20:37:30

Investor Sentiment Turns Positive, Long Positions Quietly Rise. ⑴ Despite the impending market events, JPMorgan Chase's latest survey indicates that investors are quietly increasing their long bond positions. Data shows that both "All Clients" and "Active Clients" increased their net long positions by reducing short positions in the week ending September 15th, signaling a positive shift in market sentiment. ⑵ Among "All Clients," short positions fell from 15 to 13, while long positions remained unchanged at 30. Neutral positions rose from 55 to 57, resulting in a net long position increase from 13 to 17. Notably, this long position reached its highest level since the week of February 3rd. ⑶ The survey results for "Active Clients" also confirm this trend. This group slashed short positions from 33 to 22, lowered neutral positions from 34 to 45, and maintained long positions at 33. This move brought the net long position from -0 the previous week to 11, returning the positioning structure to the level seen in the week of September 2nd. (4) Looking at the four-week moving average, both long and short positions for "all clients" are above average, at 29 and 13, respectively, while neutral positions are below average, at 59. Active clients' long positions are also above average, at 33, while short positions are significantly above average, at 19, and neutral positions are below average, at 48. (5) Despite a busy week of US economic data, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and meetings scheduled for the Banks of England and Japan, overall investor optimism and increased long positions suggest the market may be gaining strength after digesting potential volatility.

20:36:09

The annual rate of the US import price index in August

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0%

Previous

20:34:54

Canada's seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for August

Previous : 1.74% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.86%

Previous

20:34:53

Canada's August CPI reading

Previous : 164.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 164.80%

Previous

20:34:35

[Canada's Inflation Unexpectedly Cools, Expectations of Rate Cuts Rise] ⑴ Canada's annualized inflation rate came in at 1.9% in August, below market expectations of 2.0%, signaling a moderation in inflationary pressures. Monthly data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% in August, compared to a 0.1% increase in the previous month, further indicating that price pressures are easing. ⑵ Although headline inflation fell short of expectations, core inflation indicators remained resilient. Data showed that the CPI median maintained an annualized growth rate of 3.1%, while the CPI trim fell slightly to 3.0% from 3.1% in July. Notably, the proportion of items in the CPI basket with increases exceeding 3% rose to 39.1%, up from 37.3% in July, reflecting continued underlying inflationary pressures. ⑶ Gasoline prices were the primary driver of the increase in August, rising 1.4% month-over-month. However, on an annual basis, the year-on-year decline in gasoline prices narrowed to 12.7% from 16.1% in July, partially dampening the decline in transportation costs. Excluding gasoline prices, the annualized CPI rose by 2.4% in August, a slight slowdown from the 2.5% increase in the previous three months. (4) This weaker-than-expected inflation data likely increases the likelihood of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut on Wednesday (Beijing time). Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut on September 17th are as high as 87%. The Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% since March, but recent data suggests the case for resuming a rate cut cycle is strengthening. (5) Regarding housing costs, housing prices, which account for nearly 30% of the CPI basket, rose by 2.6% in August, down from a 3% increase in July, driven by easing mortgage costs and rents. Food prices rose by 3.4%, with meat prices increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, up from 4.7% in July.

20:32:32

U.S. retail sales in August

Previous : 7442.46 Forecast : -

Published Value 7320.10

Previous

20:32:25

Core retail sales in the United States in August

Previous : 5996.23 Forecast : -

Published Value 5922.58

Previous

20:32:18

The annual rate of the U.S. export price index in August

Previous : 2.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.40%

Previous

20:30:15

The monthly rate of the retail sales control group related to the U.S. GDP in August - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : 0.40%

Published Value 0.70%

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