2026-11-03 Tuesday
2026-11-06
19:19:56
[US Midterm Elections and Tech Earnings Reports, RBA Rate Hike Under Scrutiny] ⑴ The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% overnight, with a 6-3 vote. ⑵ The US midterm elections were held throughout the day, with all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate up for election. Control of Congress, fiscal policy, and regulatory trends are the focus. ⑶ The election results are expected to gradually become clearer overnight, requiring attention to overnight futures, bonds, and the US dollar. ⑷ Before the US stock market opens, several companies will release earnings reports, covering sectors such as consumer goods, energy, industrials, and pharmaceuticals. ⑸ September JOLTS job openings data will be released on Tuesday, with market expectations of approximately 7.11 million to 7.15 million, compared to 7.079 million previously. ⑹ September factory orders will also be released on the same day, with expectations of a 1.2% month-on-month increase, compared to a 0.1% increase previously. ⑺ The November RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is expected to be 46.2, compared to 46.8 previously. (8) The U.S. Treasury will release a notice regarding repurchase agreements and short-term bill auctions, and will auction $100 billion in 6-week Treasury bills. (9) After the U.S. stock market closes, several technology and financial companies will release their earnings reports, with artificial intelligence-related businesses becoming a key focus. (10) The market will focus on artificial intelligence chips, data center revenue and earnings guidance, as well as demand for artificial intelligence networks and servers. (11) In the coming days, the U.S. will release ADP employment, trade balance, ISM services data, and the October non-farm payroll report. (12) The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released on Friday.
19:18:50
[Swap Facility Launched, Leading Securities Firms Enter the Market to Stabilize] ⑴ The People's Bank of China launched the third batch of swap facility operations on November 3rd, with a one-year term and extendable; 31 securities firms and fund companies applied, with the total intended amount exceeding 100 billion yuan. ⑵ It is understood that leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities, CICC, Guotai Haitong Securities, CITIC Securities, Dongwu Securities, Ping An Securities, China Merchants Securities, and Eastmoney Securities participated in this application, and the funds will be used to increase holdings of stocks and ETFs.
19:15:23
[Saudi Aramco's Q3 Profits Surge as CEO Pushes for Export Diversification] ⑴ Saudi Aramco achieved a net profit of $36.3 billion in three months, up approximately 35% year-on-year, despite attacks on its facilities and a halving of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Excluding one-off factors, adjusted profit was $31.2 billion, an increase of approximately 9%, exceeding market expectations. ⑶ Free cash flow reached $28.2 billion, higher than $23.6 billion in the same period last year. ⑷ Refining and chemical business profits surged by approximately 234%. ⑸ The underlying dividend for the quarter was $21.9 billion. ⑹ The real focus is not on the profits themselves, but on CEO Nasser's strategic plans. ⑺ Nasser is expanding the daily capacity of the East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea from 7 million barrels to 10 million barrels. ⑻ The company is also exploring new export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal. ⑼ On the map, the obvious route is through Oman. (10) The world's largest oil exporter is re-planning its export routes. (11) This move comes against the backdrop of market concerns triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, and the uncertainty of the international situation prompting oil-producing countries to examine transportation security. (12) Diversifying export routes may become a long-term strategy for Gulf oil-producing countries to cope with geopolitical risks.
18:53:00
[2026 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Global Investment Promotion Conference Held, Accelerating the Implementation of Foreign Investment Projects] Today (November 3), the 2026 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Global Investment Promotion Conference, jointly hosted by the Guangdong Provincial People's Government and the governments of the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions, was held in Guangzhou, attracting representatives from 413 enterprises and business associations from 17 countries and regions. According to reports, the conference has already signed over 5,700 projects with a total value exceeding 9 trillion yuan. The overall commencement rate of investment projects from the previous four conferences has exceeded 90%, driving strategic emerging industries such as biomedicine, green petrochemicals, new energy, advanced materials, electronic information, and automobiles to extend towards the high end of the value chain. (CCTV News)
18:49:44
[Fujian's First Cross-Domain Heterogeneous Scheduling Full-Service Metaword Factory Launched] On November 3, Fujian Province's first cross-domain heterogeneous scheduling full-service metaword factory—the "Mindu Ruici" Artificial Intelligence Industry Service Platform—was officially launched in Minqing County, Fuzhou City. The platform aggregates 14 mainstream large-scale models, including DeepSeek and Kimi, and is compatible with various domestically produced chips. It provides services such as computing power scheduling, model supply, application deployment, metaword settlement, and financial support for enterprises, research institutions, and other users. (Xinhua News Agency)
18:48:47
[Frequent Attacks on Ships in the Strait of Hormuz Continue High Volatility in the Energy Market] ⑴ International crude oil futures prices fell on Tuesday, driven by rumors related to diplomatic negotiations, while the number of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz reached a new high in October. ⑵ Despite the increase in attacks, crude oil exports have not been completely blocked, reflecting a weakening of Iran's leverage in its strategic maneuvering through the strait. ⑶ According to institutional strategists, there were more than 35 attacks on merchant ships in the strait region in October, indicating a significant deterioration in maritime security, with geopolitical risks continuing to support market premiums. ⑷ Currently, physical crude oil circulation through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, with alternative routes such as the Red Sea further supplementing oil export capacity. ⑸ Oil producers and shipowners are mitigating risks by adjusting routes and optimizing logistics plans, temporarily avoiding large-scale supply disruptions, but shipping costs are rising and navigation certainty is decreasing. ⑹ The tight supply of refined oil products coupled with low inventory levels limits market buffer space; once another major disturbance occurs, prices are prone to sharp fluctuations. (7) Qatar-mediated dialogue offers hope for de-escalation, but with the US midterm elections approaching, the geopolitical situation could escalate again, and diplomatic processes could be delayed. (8) The baseline scenario predicts the conflict will continue for a long time but on a manageable scale, and crude oil exports from the Gulf region can remain operational. (9) Under the baseline assumption, as shipping stability improves and geopolitical risk premiums gradually diminish, oil prices are expected to gradually decline. (10) The high frequency of attacks in October means the market's return to normalcy will be slower than previously expected; even if a ceasefire is reached, shipping and inventory repairs cannot be completed immediately. (11) Iranian state media reports indicate that the supreme leadership has granted the government the authority to conduct peace negotiations; if diplomacy makes progress, October may see the peak of attacks on ships. (12) Short-term supply has eased somewhat, but the fragile security environment and tight fundamentals mean the energy market will remain highly volatile.
18:46:33
[Saudi Aramco to Expand East-West Oil Pipeline Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz] ⑴ The CEO of Saudi Aramco, the Saudi national oil giant, confirmed at an analyst conference that the expansion project of the East-West crude oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz has commenced. ⑵ This vital waterway connects the Gulf region with the global oil market, and related traffic risks have altered the energy flow and infrastructure investment direction of regional oil-producing countries. ⑶ Saudi energy officials previously signaled plans to increase the pipeline's crude oil export capacity to 10 million barrels per day by upgrading existing domestic pipelines and the East-West pipeline. ⑷ In addition to this East-West pipeline, the company is also conducting preliminary engineering studies on other alternative export routes. Details of the new projects have not yet been disclosed, pending final investment decisions. ⑸ Saudi Aramco currently has three crude oil export routes, passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Suez Canal. ⑹ The East-West pipeline has been attacked multiple times and currently has a maximum transport capacity of 7 million barrels per day, which the company considers a critical energy security channel. ⑺ Saudi Aramco is also assessing the feasibility of establishing additional crude oil storage facilities overseas to enrich its storage and transportation network. (8) The company's representative mentioned that the impact of this round of regional crisis has spilled over into the energy sector, pushing up freight rates, exacerbating supply shortages, and increasing global inflationary pressures. (9) There have been hundreds of attacks on oil tankers during this conflict, and freight rates for large crude oil carriers have increased significantly compared to last year. (10) The company believes that the fundamentals of crude oil demand remain robust, and long-term energy planning should not be dominated by short-term market fluctuations. (11) Saudi Aramco stated that it has the ability to quickly increase crude oil production should market demand arise. (12) The company's third-quarter profits increased by more than 30% year-on-year, and it continues to advance pipeline and storage and transportation layouts to hedge against shipping channel risks.
18:35:08
[US Midterm Elections: Republican Campaign Ads Reduce Trump Mentions] ⑴ According to advertising data analysis, during the midterm election phase, Republican campaign materials rarely featured Trump. ⑵ Trump himself hoped to turn this midterm election into a referendum on his performance in office, but the advertising strategies of party candidates contradicted this. ⑶ The focus of both parties' campaign propaganda shifted from the primary stage, centered on key figures, to the general election, emphasizing economic issues, with increased exposure for healthcare-related topics. ⑷ In the House Republican primary, approximately 66% of the content involved Trump; this figure dropped to only 3% in the general election cycle, a significant decline. ⑸ The percentage of Senate Republican campaign ads mentioning Trump decreased from 77% in the primaries to 22% in the general election, with a similar decline observed in gubernatorial campaigns. ⑹ Democratic ads also reduced the frequency of Trump mentions, but the overall contraction was less severe than that of the Republican camp. ⑺ Republican ads also showed a decrease in the proportion of mentions of key issues such as immigration and law enforcement compared to the primaries. (8) In the primary election stage, candidates often rely on key political figures to win votes within their party, while the general election leans more towards policy issues, and this year's shift is particularly pronounced. (9) Although election ads deliberately downplay the issue, the campaign materials distributed at the Republican midterm rallies in September still included images of Trump.
18:27:34
[ECB Liquidity: Changes in Overnight Facility Size] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) released its latest daily liquidity data, with the unit of measurement being millions of euros. ⑵ The overnight lending facility's withdrawals totaled 31, compared to 195 the previous trading day. ⑶ The overnight deposit facility absorbed 1,891,677, a decrease from the previous day's 1,899,463. ⑷ The current account balance was 367,993, an increase from the previous trading day's 343,389. ⑸ The significant contraction in overnight lending indicates a cooling of institutions' temporary short-term funding needs. ⑹ The decline in overnight deposits reflects a reduction in idle funds held by financial institutions at the ECB. ⑺ The increase in the current account balance reflects an expansion of the banking system's reserve funds in its central bank accounts. ⑻ This set of liquidity indicators provides a glimpse into the tightness of liquidity in the Eurozone banking system. ⑼ Changes in the short-term liquidity structure will continue to provide market insights into the ECB's policy pace. (10) Continued monitoring of this type of high-frequency data is needed to observe whether the trend in liquidity conditions continues. (11) Changes in the use of liquidity tools will also indirectly affect the operating range of short-term interest rates. (12) This data is based on a single day; a single fluctuation should not be directly interpreted as a trend reversal.
18:26:03
[US Midterm Election: Congressional Changes Impact Asset Pricing] ⑴ Market participants are assessing the impact of Tuesday's midterm elections on the change of control in Congress, paying close attention to whether a Democratic victory will amplify asset volatility. The AI trading sector is a core theme in the market. ⑵ The current market is inherently fragile, and the previous correction in the AI sector has already exacerbated investor anxiety. The election results may further amplify this risk-averse sentiment. ⑶ The election results will have policy implications for several sensitive sectors, including AI computing infrastructure, US fiscal planning, defense spending, and regulatory trends in areas such as healthcare and banking. ⑷ Polls indicate that Democrats are highly likely to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate race is very close, with different institutions providing multi-scenario probability assessments. ⑸ Citi strategists believe there are two possible outcomes for the Senate: a Republican victory could boost the stock market, while a Democratic victory could suppress it. ⑹ UBS team estimates that the probability of Democrats winning both the House and Senate is about 50%, the probability of Democrats winning the House and Republicans retaining the Senate is about 40%, and the probability of Republicans retaining both houses is about 10%. (7) UBS's Chief Investment Officer noted that the change in congressional control will strengthen oversight, and negotiations on fiscal issues will become more difficult. (8) If the Democrats control Congress, the AI industry may face stricter scrutiny, and computing power projects will face greater public pressure, but institutions predict that strong restrictive legislation is unlikely to be introduced in the short term. (9) Historical statistics show that since 1970, the S&P 500 index has mostly risen in the six months following midterm elections. (10) In terms of options trading, the market has not bet on a sharp market movement after the election; the implied volatility of the index the following day is only slightly higher than the monthly average. (11) Traders indicated that there will be short-term fluctuations after the results are released, but various uncertainties will not be eliminated all at once, and geopolitical risks will persist. (12) Election-related hedging arrangements may fail; investors still need to continuously monitor subsequent policy signals.
18:21:50
[Ukrainian Grain Harvest Reaches 75% Completion] ⑴ The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture disclosed on Tuesday that as of November 3, the local grain harvest was 75% complete. ⑵ The harvested area reached 8.7 million hectares, corresponding to a total grain yield of 44.6 million tons, with an average yield of 5.12 tons per hectare. ⑶ Wheat was the largest crop in terms of harvest volume, with a harvested area of 5.11 million hectares, yielding 26.26 million tons, and a yield of 5.08 tons per hectare. ⑷ Barley was harvested on 1.48 million hectares, yielding 6.59 million tons, with a yield of 4.46 tons per hectare. ⑸ Peas were harvested on 302,000 hectares, yielding 834,000 tons, with a yield of 2.73 tons per hectare. ⑹ Rapeseed was harvested on 1.329 million hectares, yielding 3.881 million tons, with a yield of 2.92 tons per hectare. (7) Corn production has reached 10.775 million tons, while sunflower, soybean, and sugar beet harvests have yielded 10.339 million tons, 3.23 million tons, and 5.069 million tons respectively. (8) Ukrainian officials previously estimated this year's total grain harvest target at approximately 60 million tons, roughly the same as last year. (9) The harvesting of wheat, barley, peas, and rapeseed has been completed, while corn and other crops are still underway. (10) The current overall harvesting pace is in line with expectations; the harvesting results of the remaining plots will determine whether the final harvest target can be achieved. (11) Various oilseeds and cash crops are simultaneously reaching a certain scale of production, constituting an important part of the local agricultural product supply. (12) The supply potential related to agricultural product exports still depends on the completion of the subsequent harvest and the supporting transportation situation.
18:21:05
[European Natural Gas: Geopolitical Factors and Cooling Temperatures Drive Price Volatility] ⑴ On Tuesday, core European natural gas spot prices rebounded, reversing the significant decline of the previous day. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of cooling temperatures were the main supporting factors. ⑵ Institutional data showed that the Dutch TTF near-month contract rose by about 2 euros, reaching around 96 euros per megawatt-hour, while the UK near-month contract also rose. ⑶ The previous trading day, the main contract fell by more than 10%, reaching a five-day low, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment in a short period. ⑷ Temperatures in Northwest Europe will continue to drop, with Friday's temperature forecast revised down by 2 degrees Celsius from earlier estimates, leading to increased demand for heating gas. ⑸ The temperature drop boosted local residential heating gas consumption by approximately 113 gigawatt-hours per day, marginally strengthening the supply and demand situation. ⑹ The European gas storage facility fill rate reached 74.56%, a record low for this time of year, indicating a weak inventory base. (7) Morgan Stanley points out that if winter temperatures are normal or colder than average, Europe will need to secure more flexible LNG supplies to replenish its inventory. (8) Strong Asian LNG demand has diverted shipments that could have gone to Europe, making it more difficult for European companies to secure supplies through bidding. (9) The benchmark scenario maintains a price forecast of €90 per MWh, assuming a generally warm winter and Qatari LNG exports returning to normal by the middle of the first quarter of next year. (10) Beyond the benchmark assumption, there is a greater risk of price increases; the optimistic scenario has been revised upward to €150 per MWh, due to the expectation of colder temperatures in the early fourth quarter consuming inventory buffers. (11) The benchmark contract in the European carbon market rose slightly, with prices approaching €89 per ton. (12) Trading is also influenced by the US midterm elections, with market participants maintaining a cautious attitude.
18:15:36
[Midterm Elections: Early Voting Data Can Easily Lead to Misjudgments] ⑴ The initial vote count released Tuesday evening can easily create a biased impression, as control of the House and Senate often takes several days to be confirmed. ⑵ Early lead can easily lead to a perception of a predetermined outcome, and subsequent updates or reversals of the lead can easily raise questions. ⑶ In past elections, control of the House of Representatives has often been decided by the relevant authorities about a week after election day. ⑷ The pace of Senate results varies greatly; some are confirmed on election night, while others take several days, and in some cases, even up to two months. ⑸ Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, and Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to secure a majority. ⑹ Statistics show that since 2018, votes counted earlier in the evening have consistently shown a higher percentage of Republican support than the final result. ⑺ This phenomenon mainly stems from regional differences in vote counting pace; regions favoring the Republicans have faster counting processes and release data earlier. (8) Several West Coast states have a high proportion of mail-in ballots and longer counting periods. As these ballots are gradually included in the count, the initial bias will gradually diminish. (9) The counting order rules differ from state to state. States that prioritize mail-in ballots tend to favor Democrats initially, while states that prioritize in-person ballots tend to favor Republicans initially. (10) Many swing states have historical precedents where one side leads early in the count, only to reverse the tide and win later when the remaining votes are tallied. (11) Alaska has the slowest counting progress and initially favors Republicans. The state has a longer deadline for receiving mail-in ballots, and if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, a second round of counting will be conducted on November 18th. (12) An early lead in the election does not guarantee the final outcome. The closer the race, the longer the wait for the official results announcement.
18:10:08
[Austria Issues Additional 2030 Bonds, Oversubscription Rate Declines] ⑴ The Austrian National Financing Agency issued additional €700 million in bonds maturing on October 20, 2030, through a competitive placement. ⑵ The total issuance size was €805 million, of which €105 million was allocated to the Republic of Austria itself. ⑶ The average yield was 3.203%, higher than the previous auction's 3.169%. ⑷ The oversubscription rate was 2.564, lower than the previous 3.082. ⑸ The tail ratio was 0.014 percentage points, compared to 0.003 percentage points previously. ⑹ The average price was 100.901%, with the highest allocated yield at 3.217%. ⑺ The total amount of competitive bids was €1.795 billion, lower than the previous €2.003 billion. ⑻ After the issuance, the outstanding amount of the bonds is €16.377 billion.
17:48:12
[Jordan's Producer Prices Rise 5.41% Year-on-Year in September, Hitting a Four-Month High] ⑴ Jordan's producer prices rose 5.41% year-on-year in September 2026, accelerating from 3.47% in August and reaching the highest level since May. ⑵ Looking at the sub-categories, the increase was mainly driven by a faster rise in manufacturing prices (5.60%, compared to 3.71% in August), with significant increases in coke and refined petroleum products (49.1%, compared to 33.67% in August) and metal products excluding machinery and equipment (4.23%, compared to 0.38% in August). ⑶ The price increase in the mining and quarrying industry also accelerated (6.46%, compared to 1.50% in August), while the supply prices of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning rose slightly (1.78%, compared to 1.74% in August). ⑷ On a month-on-month basis, the producer price index rose 0.92% in September, reversing the 0.61% decline in August and returning to positive growth after three consecutive months of contraction.
17:34:03
[San Francisco Fed Research: El Niño May Push Up US Inflation and Boost Employment] ⑴ A new economics newsletter from the San Francisco Federal Reserve points out that a strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean could push up US prices and boost employment next year. ⑵ Historically, El Niño has pushed up core service and food prices; the current event is classified as "very strong." ⑶ The inflation risk facing the US largely depends on whether El Niño will turn into La Niña next year, which has the opposite effect. ⑷ Researchers predict that if this transition occurs, further price pressures could add about 1 percentage point to personal consumption expenditure inflation in 2027. ⑸ The authors estimate that the current El Niño may have already made the personal consumption expenditure price level from April to July about 0.3 percentage points higher than usual. ⑹ They expect this initial increase to subside by the end of this year. ⑺ The authors state that early price pressures in the El Niño cycle first impact consumers' wallets, while the impact on the labor market will take longer to materialize. (8) Analysis by the San Francisco Fed found that total non-farm payrolls are typically unaffected in the first year of an El Niño event, but expand significantly in the second year. (9) Unlike inflation forecasts that depend on the occurrence of La Niña, the expectation of a hiring surge and a decline in the unemployment rate in 2027 is based on a pattern that has consistently occurred in past El Niño cycles. (10) The authors' data sample includes only 22 El Niño events since the 1950s, of which only four were "very strong," while the current one is expected to be stronger than any in historical data. (11) The authors write that these results are not predictions, but rather point to a significant risk of rising inflation next year, and note that El Niño adds uncertainty to the overall outlook for the U.S. economy.
17:25:03
[Eurogroup Initiates Nomination Process for ECB President] ⑴ Eurozone governments have been invited to submit their nominations for Christine Lagarde's successor by Friday. ⑵ Eurogroup President Pierakakis urged member states to submit their nominations by November 6. ⑶ The Eurogroup, comprised of finance ministers from the 21 Eurozone countries, will assess the nominations at its meeting on November 9. ⑷ Current nominees include former Bank of Spain governor and current head of the Bank for International Settlements, Decos, and former Dutch central bank governor, Knott. ⑸ Lagarde has stated she will step down on February 7, approximately nine months earlier than her original term, to allow her to speak on issues beyond monetary policy. ⑹ The search for a successor is part of the replacement of three of the six seats on the ECB's Executive Board. ⑺ With both Markets Director Schnabel and Chief Economist Lane nearing the end of their terms, the succession process has begun. (8) Schnabel will step down in early January, about a year before his eight-year term ends, and the Eurogroup has extended the application deadline to November 27. (9) Lane's term expires in May. (10) European leaders will meet in Brussels on November 26-27, and progress is expected on appointments, including Lagarde's successor. (11) Decos and Nott have been campaigning in the region in recent months to garner the support of national governments. (12) The final outcome may depend on the support of German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron.
17:20:50
[Bulgaria's October Inflation Rises to 6.1%, a Five-Month High] ⑴ Preliminary estimates show that Bulgaria's annual inflation rate for October 2026 rose to 6.1% from 5.7% in the previous month, the highest level since May. ⑵ By category, transportation prices rose by 27.1% (previous value 25.9%), education services by 9.2% (previous value 7.7%), leisure, sports and culture by 9.2% (previous value 8.5%), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics by 7.5% (previous value 6.9%), food and non-alcoholic beverages by 1.9% (previous value 1.6%), catering and accommodation services by 9.8% (previous value 9.5%), housing and utilities by 5.6% (previous value 5.4%), information and communication by 1.9% (previous value 1.6%), personal care, social security and other goods and services by 5.4% (previous value 5.2%), and healthcare by 3.2% (previous value 3.1%). (3) Insurance and financial services prices also accelerated to 2.5% (previous value 0.2%), clothing and footwear prices reversed their decline and rose by 0.3% (previous value -0.1%), and furniture prices also turned to rise by 0.1% (previous value -0.5%). (4) On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 1.3% in October, reversing the 0.2% decline in September.
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