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2026-05-27 Wednesday

2026-05-30

10:03:46

[Reserve of New Zealand Keeps OCR Unchanged at 2.25%, Warns of Inflation Risks and Potential for Earlier Rate Hikes] 1. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) voted today to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%. Annual consumer price inflation for the March quarter was 3.1%. 2. The Middle East conflict is pushing up short-term inflation and weakening economic activity. Inflation is expected to peak at 4.3% in the September quarter and fall back to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027. Currently, core inflation, wage growth, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with a return to the 2% target in the medium term. 3. Uncertainty persists in the global economic outlook. Supply chain disruptions, rising petrochemical prices, and a more fragmented global trade environment are impacting the economic outlook. Economic growth will vary across countries due to differences in energy intensity, fiscal support, and exposure to artificial intelligence investment. Overall, New Zealand's trading partners are expected to face the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation. 4. Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weakening confidence and spending. For some businesses, rising costs are squeezing profit margins and dampening investment and hiring. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak. Economic conditions continue to diverge across regions and sectors, with high commodity prices supporting income levels in some parts of New Zealand. 5. The outlook for medium-term inflationary pressures remains uncertain. If households and businesses anticipate further cost increases and incorporate these expectations into current pricing and wage decisions, inflationary pressures could remain high. However, weak demand and high unemployment will restrain medium-term inflationary pressures. 6. The Committee will continue to focus on ensuring that rising costs do not lead to persistently high medium-term inflation, while striving to avoid unnecessary economic volatility. Overall, the OCR is likely to need to rise sooner and more significantly than anticipated in the February Monetary Policy Statement. The pace of interest rate hikes will depend on persistent wage and pricing behavior, and the relative impact of weak economic activity on medium-term inflationary pressures.

10:00:06

New Zealand's official cash rate decision on May 27th

Previous : 2.25% Forecast : 2.25%

Neutral

Published Value 2.25%

Previous

09:45:30

[Westpac Bank's Forecast of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Decision: Interest Rates Expected to Remain Unchanged at 2.25%, Inflation Exceeds 4%, Timing of Rate Hikes Remains Disagreement] (1) Westpac Bank stated that the market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% today. (2) Driven by soaring refined oil prices following the Iran war, New Zealand's overall inflation rate is expected to exceed 4% and remain high for most of 2026. (3) Economic growth forecasts are expected to be significantly lowered: GDP growth in 2026 is currently projected at 1.8%-2.0% (February forecast was 2.8%); the unemployment rate is expected to rise to approximately 5.5% by the end of the year. (4) The OCR terminal rate is projected to rise to approximately 3.2%, with a December 2026 rate forecast of approximately 2.8%, which means there will be two to three rate hikes this year. The core disagreement within the Monetary Policy Committee lies in the timing of rate hikes rather than their direction. (5) The bank believes that the reasons for maintaining the interest rate unchanged today include: limited hard evidence of the effects of a second round of inflation, high uncertainty about the duration of the war, and the possibility that tightening policy too early could be counterproductive if the economic slowdown deepens. (6) The second quarter CPI data will be the first substantive test of whether inflation is spreading from energy costs.

09:32:51

Australia's annual rate of construction completions in the first quarter

Previous : 3% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.30%

Previous

09:32:23

The annualized cut-off average annual rate of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' CPI for April

Previous : 3.30% Forecast : 3.40%

Published Value 3.40%

Previous

09:32:11

The weighted CPI annual rate of the Australian Bureau of Statistics for April

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.50%

Previous

09:31:53

Annual rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in April - single month

Previous : 15.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 24.70%

Previous

09:31:39

Annual rate of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China in April - year-to-date

Previous : 15.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 18.20%

Previous

09:31:25

Profit amounts of large-scale industrial enterprises in China in April - year-to-date

Previous : 16960.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 24358.40

Previous

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4539.78

44.19

(0.98%)

XAG

75.274

-0.343

(-0.45%)

CONC

87.76

-1.14

(-1.28%)

OILC

91.59

-0.81

(-0.88%)

USD

98.932

-0.077

(-0.08%)

EURUSD

1.1660

0.0001

(0.01%)

GBPUSD

1.3456

0.0001

(0.01%)

USDCNH

6.7632

0.0001

(0.00%)