Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

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New York：12/24 22:26:56

2026-04-07 Tuesday

2026-04-10

22:00:04

Canada's seasonally adjusted IVEY PMI for March

Previous : 56.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.70

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22:00:02

Canada's IVEY unadjusted PMI for March

Previous : 56.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 56.50

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22:00:01

[Singapore Rejects Negotiations on Passage Rights in the Strait of Hormuz, Reaffirms Freedom of Navigation in International Straits] ⑴ Singapore's Foreign Minister stated in Parliament on Tuesday that Singapore will not negotiate with Iran on the safe passage or toll rates for vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, consistent with its long-standing principle of non-partisanship. ⑵ The Minister pointed out that Singapore considers passage through the strait a right of all states, not a privilege granted by littoral states, not requiring a pleading permission, nor a toll to be paid; vessels of all states have the right to pass. ⑶ This right is enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, of which Singapore is a signatory and ratification. Article 44 of the Convention explicitly states that littoral states shall not impede or suspend transit passage. ⑷ The Minister emphasized that Singapore's position on the use of international navigation straits is long-standing and consistent. The Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, and the Singapore Strait are all examples of international navigation straits, and the right of transit passage is a matter of customary international law. (5) The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore is in close contact with ship owners and operators of vessels flying the Singapore flag or registered in the Persian Gulf Straits, and is engaging with stakeholders at the international and regional levels to explore potential opportunities to facilitate the safe passage of vessels.

21:56:49

[Rainfall in producing areas suppresses wheat prices, crude oil boosts soybean oil, CBOT trades narrowly awaiting key report] ⑴ Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) expects wheat futures to fall 1 to 4 cents per bushel on Tuesday, mainly pressured by forecasts of rainfall in drought-stressed plains, but weaker-than-expected conditions for the U.S. winter wheat crop limited the decline. ⑵ Meteorologists say rainfall later this week is expected to alleviate excessive dryness in the central and southwestern plains, but western Kansas and eastern Colorado may remain dry until late April. ⑶ Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that as of Sunday, the U.S. winter wheat crop condition was only 35% good to excellent, below the average analyst expectation of 42%, while spring wheat planting was 3% complete, 1 percentage point ahead of schedule. ⑷ Corn futures are expected to hold steady to fall 3 cents per bushel, with prices continuing to trade within a range. Traders are closely watching developments in Iran and awaiting the USDA's monthly supply and demand report on Thursday. ⑸ The USDA says that as of Sunday, U.S. farmers had completed 3% of corn planting, 1 percentage point ahead of average expectations. (6) Soybean futures are expected to hold steady to rise 2 cents per bushel, while soybean oil futures rose to a three-year high, boosted by stronger crude oil prices. Trading also remained range-bound ahead of Thursday's USDA report. (7) Agricultural consulting firms reported that as of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 82% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest, a 7 percentage point increase from the previous week, but still lower than the 87% completed at the same time last year.

21:50:52

[Options Market Silently Prepares for Battle, Hormuz Countdown Approaches, the Decoupling of Implied Volatility from Reality] ⑴ Despite geopolitical headlines continuing to dominate the market narrative, the foreign exchange options market is quietly waging its own war—the weapon is not missiles, but the tension between implied and realized volatility. The real battlefield is not in the spot market, but in the gap between option pricing and actual market movements. ⑵ As the deadline for the Iran issue triggered by Trump's tariff remarks approaches, overnight options contracts carry a significant risk premium, but implied volatility remains firmly within its recent range, indicating that headline fatigue is suppressing hedging demand rather than triggering any rush to buy safe havens. ⑶ A broader term structure presents a similar pattern: implied volatility is supported but suppressed; the market is aware of the risk but has not fully priced it in, while realized volatility remains low, with implied levels only moderately higher than realized volatility. This signals risk awareness rather than outright fear, but if the deadline brings substantial escalation, the situation could change rapidly. (4) Asymmetry makes the current environment particularly perilous: Selling volatility in response to events like tonight's deadline offers extremely limited returns compared to the potential for explosive gains should an escalation occur. The risk-reward ratio for shorting volatility in the face of binary geopolitical events has never been more attractive. (5) USD/JPY is a prime example: Traders continue to buy upside options near 161.00 to hedge against further gains in USD/JPY, but 1-month implied volatility has fallen below 9.0, approaching pre-Middle East conflict levels, while historical 1-month volatility for the same period is closer to 8.0. (6) The EUR/USD risk reversal indicator also illustrates the point: although implied volatility has retreated from the conflict's peak, the market continues to price in a significant premium for downside strike prices relative to upside strike prices. Currently, the 1-month premium is 1.05, indicating the risk of rising foreign exchange volatility. In contrast, before the conflict reversed market sentiment, the upside strike price premium was only 0.25, peaking at 1.7, a three-year high. Although this extreme value has subsided, the skew remains firmly downward. (7) Tonight's deadline will either confirm that the market's relatively restrained volatility pricing is reasonable, or serve as a stark reminder: in the face of dual geopolitical events, implied volatility often appears cheap in hindsight.

21:45:33

[Rising Confidence Hides High Costs: US Farmers Bet on Land Prices and Policy Direction] ⑴ The Purdue University/CME Group Agricultural Economic Barometer shows that the farmer sentiment index rose to 127 in March from 116 in February. The current conditions index rose 6 points, and the future expectations index rose sharply by 14 points, but the latter is still 12 points lower than in December and 16 points lower than in March of last year. ⑵ Despite improved sentiment, the proportion of respondents citing high input costs as their biggest concern rose from 44% to 46%. Approximately 18% of farmers reported that their business was better than a year ago. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 18% expect their financial performance to worsen, while 20% expect it to improve. ⑶ The agricultural capital investment index rose slightly by 3 points to 53, but only 4% of respondents planned to increase agricultural machinery purchases in the coming year, indicating that the willingness to expand remains weak. (4) Regarding inflation expectations, approximately 39% of farmers expect consumer inflation to be above 3% over the next 12 months. Regarding the U.S. prime interest rate, 34% of respondents believe it will fall in a year, while 16% believe it will rise. (5) In the past six months, 12% of producers have discussed leasing their farmland for solar power generation. Leasing rates varied significantly, with approximately 21% of offers exceeding $1,500 per acre. 56% of contracts included annual increase clauses, with the most common annual increase being 2% to 3%. Overall, 5% of respondents indicated they had signed solar leases. (6) The short-term farmland value expectation index rose from 123 to 125, and the long-term index jumped from 150 to 159. The proportion of farmers who believe the U.S. is on the "right track" rose from 59% to 65%, but only 37% expect a positive agricultural outlook over the next five years, a decrease of 12 percentage points from March of last year. The gap in expectations between crop and livestock producers remains significant.

21:44:33

U.S. Agricultural Capital Investment Index for March -PDU/CME

Previous : 58 Forecast : -

Published Value 53

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21:44:15

The U.S. Agricultural Conditions Index for March -PDU/CME

Previous : 120 Forecast : -

Published Value 126

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21:44:11

The U.S. Agricultural Outlook Index for March -PDU/CME

Previous : 116 Forecast : -

Published Value 128

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21:43:12

U.S. March Agricultural Economy Barometer -PDU/CME

Previous : 116 Forecast : -

Published Value 127

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21:42:02

The U.S. Agricultural Outlook Index for March -PDU/CME

Previous : 116 Forecast : -

Published Value 127

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20:57:12

As of April 3rd, commercial inventories of soybean oil in key regions across China

Previous : 102.57 Forecast : -

Published Value 100.67

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20:57:02

Commercial inventories of palm oil in key regions across China as of April 3

Previous : 79.24 Forecast : -

Published Value 77.91

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20:56:53

China's soybean oil port inventories as of April 7th

Previous : 78.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 77.40

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20:56:44

China's port inventory of imported soybeans as of April 6

Previous : 767.32 Forecast : -

Published Value 742.17

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20:56:12

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending March 30

Previous : 6.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.60%

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20:55:02

The red-book annual rate of commercial retail sales in the United States for the week ending March 30

Previous : 6.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 7.60%

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20:40:57

[Caixin Futures: Palm Oil Likely to Rise, Soybean Meal Slightly Bearish on Rallies] ⑴ Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil production decreased and inventories declined in February, and the trend is expected to continue in March, but current inventory levels remain high. Domestic soybean oil inventories declined slightly, but overall inventories remain high; rapeseed oil inventories are neutral to low, but Canadian rapeseed is arriving in ports, which will ease supply later. Overall, domestic edible oil inventories are neutral to slightly high, and the market trend is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and crude oil sentiment, with palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil showing a strong-weak pattern. In the spot market, 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong rose by 90 yuan to 9950 yuan, soybean oil rose by 50 yuan to 9110 yuan, and genetically modified rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 10270 yuan. ⑵ Soybean Meal: The surge in crude oil prices has driven up vegetable oil prices, which in turn has increased the cost of imported soybeans. Domestically, soybean imports gradually recovered after April. Based on shipping schedules, soybean arrivals in May are estimated at 11.5 million tons, and in June at 11 million tons, leading to a surge in supply pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended. (3) Corn: The relatively low inventory at northern ports is the main reason for the strong corn price. However, the release of policy grain reserves, wheat, and rice has a certain restraining effect on corn price increases. On the demand side, feed demand weakened due to the decline in prices of mainstream livestock products, resulting in low enthusiasm for inventory building by feed mills and farms. However, strong demand for corn deep processing remains strong. Corn prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the increase may be limited. (4) Live Pigs: Live pig spot prices continue to weaken. Short-term supply pressure continues to ease, with previously accumulated large-weight pigs being released for slaughter. Coupled with high slaughter weights, the market supply of live pigs is ample, and terminal demand is insufficient, presenting a supply-demand imbalance. Due to signs of secondary fattening entering the market after the Lunar New Year, although the theoretical number of pigs slaughtered in April and May will decrease slightly month-on-month, the high slaughter weight coupled with the expectation of secondary fattening will make the price trend in April and May still not optimistic. It is recommended to sell on rallies. (5) Eggs: The egg market is in a transitional period dominated by rising feed costs and marginal easing of supply pressure. The rise in corn and soybean meal prices has directly pushed up the cost of raising laying hens, with the feed cost per kilogram of eggs rising to about 3.13 yuan/kilogram. On the supply side, although the current number of laying hens is still high, the worst may have passed. The logic of egg price operation is that costs support the bottom and supply decreases while demand increases. It is expected that prices will show a moderate upward trend, but the high inventory base limits the upside potential.

20:40:43

[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil Shows Strong Performance, Methanol Rises Significantly] ⑴ Crude Oil: US-Iran negotiations have reached a critical point. Trump stated that if an agreement is not reached by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 7th (8:00 AM Beijing Time on April 8th), the US military may destroy bridges, power plants, and energy facilities in Iran. Geopolitical tensions have escalated again, and energy and chemical products are expected to perform strongly in the short term. However, political risks will increase market uncertainty. It is recommended to buy on dips and avoid blindly chasing long or short positions. ⑵ Fuel Oil: During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil accounting for 20% of domestic imports. The supply gap is unlikely to be filled in the short term. Trump's remarks exacerbated geopolitical tensions, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. ⑶ Glass: Recently, float glass production lines have increased their output, with the industry's daily output slightly recovering to 145,500 tons. Overall, shipments from factories in North China are average, with low-priced goods mainly being traded in the Shahe market. Deep processing plants' orders remain weak, supply remains low, and rising energy costs provide some support for prices. However, demand expectations are weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. (4) Soda Ash: The domestic soda ash market is trending towards stability with minimal price fluctuations. Some companies have increased their operating rates, resulting in a slight increase in supply. Downstream demand is moderate, and transactions have increased after futures prices fell. Total soda ash inventory is 1.8861 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from Monday, with total social inventory exceeding 340,000 tons. Soda ash capacity utilization is 78.52%. Downstream cold repairs are accelerating, and medium-term supply is ample, suggesting a slightly weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic Soda: Low-degree soda ash prices in Shandong are generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts. The national liquid soda ash sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.94% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 85.7%. Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and plant operating rate reductions are less than expected. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate more sharply, with a slightly weak and volatile outlook. (6) Methanol: Taicang spot price was 3635 yuan, up 220 yuan; Inner Mongolia North Line price was 2695 yuan, up 65 yuan. The domestic methanol futures and spot markets saw a strong overall rise, with the Middle East geopolitical situation escalating again, and futures prices hitting a new high during the day. Methanol port sample inventory was 1.034 million tons, a decrease of 121,500 tons from the previous period, a significant reduction. Israel's attack on Iran's largest petrochemical facility and the Strait of Hormuz blockade are unlikely to ease in the short term, continuing to pose a risk of import shortages, maintaining a tight supply and demand situation.

20:40:09

[Caixin Futures: Precious Metals and Base Metals Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Trends Downward] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Geopolitically, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains unresolved. Affected by the fluctuating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, copper prices are showing a fluctuating trend. The continued tension in the Middle East, market concerns about inflation due to high oil prices, and liquidity panic under central bank tightening policies are unlikely to subside in the short term. Copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Affected by the fluctuating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, aluminum prices are showing a fluctuating trend. The continued tension in the Middle East, market concerns about inflation due to high oil prices, and liquidity panic under central bank tightening policies are unlikely to subside in the short term. Non-ferrous metal prices are under pressure, but at the same time, attention should be paid to further deterioration in market supply, which may provide some support for Shanghai aluminum prices. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: The continued tension in the Middle East, market concerns about inflation due to high oil prices, and liquidity panic under central bank tightening policies are unlikely to subside in the short term. Non-ferrous metal prices are under pressure. On the fundamental side, smelter maintenance increased in April, and domestic processing fees continued to decline, providing some support for zinc prices. (4) Precious Metals: With the US-Iran ceasefire agreement still pending, precious metal prices have fluctuated due to the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Given the continued tension in the Middle East, market concerns about inflation under high oil prices and liquidity panic under central bank tightening policies are unlikely to subside in the short term, and precious metal prices may maintain a fluctuating trend. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate rebounded after a period of fluctuation, with the rebound over the past four days capped at 163,000 yuan. On the supply side, domestic lithium salt production and inventory increased simultaneously, easing the tightness in the spot market, but there was a lack of upward momentum above 160,000 yuan. On the demand side, the fundamentals remained robust. High growth in the energy storage sector effectively offset the weakness in the power battery sector, and the accelerated electrification of commercial vehicles and the increase in battery capacity per vehicle further brought new growth to the market, with industrial procurement support below 140,000 yuan. In the futures market, the LC05 contract encountered resistance at the 5-day average price of 163,000 yuan/ton and fell back, with limited upward momentum at higher levels during the session. SMM's spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 158,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday; the futures closing price is 159,340 yuan, a premium of approximately 1,340 yuan over the spot price.

20:39:36

[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Weak and Iron Ore Bearish in the Medium Term] ⑴ Steel: Supply growth outpaces demand, supply pressure looms. The rebar 10 contract is suppressed by the 40-day moving average, continuing its weak and volatile pullback trend. Support is expected around 3080-3100. The hot-rolled coil 10 contract has broken below the 40-day moving average, and may continue its short-term adjustment. Demand growth is narrowing, and inventory pressure remains a concern. Short-term prices may decline as costs fall, but peak demand has not yet materialized, the basis has recovered somewhat, and the downside potential may be limited. ⑵ Iron Ore: With the impact of the Australian cyclone receding, global iron ore shipments have increased significantly month-on-month, and pig iron production has increased more than expected. However, steel mills are purchasing only as needed, and port inventories have increased again, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. The 09 contract is weak and volatile, testing the 770 support level again. A breakout from the 770-800 range is expected. With limited real-world contradictions, the near-month 05 contract may maintain high-level volatility. The medium-term easing expectation remains unchanged, and the 09 contract can still be used as a short position in the industry chain. (3) Coking Coal: Production at some coal mines is limited due to accidents or relocation of working faces, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, leading to a continued cooling of market sentiment. The May contract is suppressed by the moving average, with short-term upward pressure shifting to the 1125-1140 level. Weakening demand and potential delivery pressure are suppressing the near-month contract, but power plants may start restocking around mid-month, which may limit the downside potential of coal prices. The recommended strategy is to sell on rallies and avoid chasing short positions. (4) Coke: The cost of coal used in furnaces has decreased, coke producers' profits have recovered, and production is stable; pig iron production has rebounded more than expected, resulting in a tight supply-demand balance in the short term. After continuous declines, the May contract is trading at a discount for more than one round, and there is still an expectation of a second round of price increases for coke. Valuation advantages provide support for the near-month contract, and short-term trends mainly follow raw coal. (5) Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks, and ferrosilicon manganese producers are operating at low levels, providing support for the market. However, after the market rebound, factories' hedging intentions have increased. The manganese silicon 05 contract saw a decrease in open interest and a decline, maintaining an overall high-level fluctuation. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the 6347-6600 fluctuation range.

20:31:03

The monthly rate of non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft in the United States in February

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.90%

Previous

20:30:08

The monthly rate of orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft in the United States in February

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0.40%

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 0.60%

Previous

20:30:07

The monthly rate of U.S. orders for defense durable goods excluding defense in February

Previous : 0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value -1.20%

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20:30:06

The monthly rate of durable goods orders excluding transportation in the United States in February

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.40%

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

20:30:03

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States for February

Previous : 0% Forecast : -1%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value -1.40%

Previous

20:26:18

The total amount of Canada's reserve assets in March

Previous : 1281.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 1267.55

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4793.47

74.29

(1.57%)

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2.267

(3.06%)

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 96.56

2.15

(2.28%)

OILC

 95.02

-1.14

(-1.19%)

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-0.379

(-0.38%)

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0.0057

(0.49%)

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0.0060

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