Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

Singapore:12/24 22:26:56

Dubai:12/24 22:26:56

London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2025-10-31 Friday

2025-11-04

13:26:15

[Australian and New Zealand dollars extend their decline as lower expectations for a December Fed rate cut support the US dollar] 1. The market lowered its expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and the US dollar held firm, hovering near its near three-month high reached overnight. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their losses on Friday. 2. The Australian dollar is currently down 0.15% to US$0.6544, after falling 0.3% overnight, marking its second consecutive day of decline. It is some distance from its three-week high of US$0.6617, but is still on track for a 0.5% gain this week. The New Zealand dollar is currently down 0.28% to around US$0.5724, having also closed lower for two consecutive trading days. 3. A strong domestic inflation report dampened hopes for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut this year, supporting the relative strength of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is up 0.23% against the New Zealand dollar, and about 0.9% so far this week. 4. The market views the probability of the RBA cutting rates by 25 basis points to 3.35% on November 4th as near zero, with all economists surveyed expecting a 3.60% rate cut. The benchmark interest rate is expected to bottom out at 3.35% by mid-next year. 5. Westpac's chief economist, Luci Ellis, stated that policy remains restrictive, and there is reason to cut rates by 25 basis points twice more next year, the first time as early as May, and the second in August. CBA believes the easing cycle has ended, while NAB and ANZ expect one rate cut next year. 6. Additionally, investors expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% in November, and the expectation of a 50 basis point cut has largely disappeared.

13:09:14

Profits from self-bred and self-raised pig farming in China as of October 31

Previous : -185.68 Forecast : -

Published Value -89.33

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13:09:13

Profits from purchased piglet farming in China as of October 31

Previous : -289.07 Forecast : -

Published Value -179.72

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13:07:14

Annual rate of construction orders in Japan in September

Previous : 38.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 34.70%

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13:05:38

The total number of new housing starts in Japan in September - not seasonally adjusted

Previous : 6 Forecast : -

Published Value 6.36

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13:04:52

Japan's annual rate of new housing starts in September - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : -9.80% Forecast : -7.90%

日元

Published Value -7.30%

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13:04:41

Japan's annualized total of new housing starts in September - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 71.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 63.57

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13:00:56

Japan's annual rate of new housing starts in September - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : -9.80% Forecast : -7.90%

Published Value -7.27%

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13:00:02

Singapore's business outlook for the third quarter - Optimistic net proportion of manufacturing for the next six months

Previous : 5% Forecast : -

Published Value 8%

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12:31:21

Japan's METI kerosene sales year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -8.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.30%

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12:31:18

Japan's METI total oil product sales year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -1.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.50%

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12:31:18

Japan's METI crude oil imports year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -1.90% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.90%

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11:11:23

[Hot Topic Analysis: Data Gap + Stubborn Inflation Changes the Outlook for a December Fed Rate Cut] 1. Despite investors' hopes for further easing, the Fed's meeting on Wednesday revealed an unclear path for rate cuts. Data shortages, persistent inflation, and disagreements among officials have added uncertainty to market expectations regarding future policy. 2. Fed Chairman Powell unexpectedly poured cold water on the idea, stating that a December rate cut is "not a done deal," far below the market's previous near-certain expectations. Following his remarks, Wall Street stocks gave back gains, and bonds were sold off. 3. The Fed's expected 25 basis point rate cut and announcement that it would stop shrinking its balance sheet as early as December had already been priced in by the market. The real shock comes from the lack of key data such as labor force data due to the US government shutdown, increasing the difficulty of policy and investment decisions. 4. BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis stated that the data vacuum will make the Fed's actions six weeks from now unpredictable, and expectations for a December rate cut may fluctuate significantly, triggering market turmoil. 5. Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, pointed out that Powell's uncertain comments have cast doubt on market expectations of a 3% interest rate cut by 2026, but a slowdown in the labor market could still provide a reason for a December rate cut. 6. Despite this, investors have not given up hope. LSEG interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen from 95% a week ago to 73% currently, but traders maintain their expectation of around 3% interest rates by the end of next year. 7. Michael Arone, Chief Strategist at State Street Investments, expects data to show weak employment, supporting action in December; Bespoke Investment, however, believes the meeting was hawkish, paving the way for a further downward revision of the probability of a rate cut.

10:31:37

Gold prices retreated slightly as the dollar held firm amid hawkish Fed stance. 1. Spot gold weakened slightly in Asian trading on Friday, currently trading around $4012.5 per ounce, down about 0.2%, as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve dampened expectations of a December rate cut. The dollar hit a near three-month high on Thursday, and the dollar index fluctuated around that level on Friday, putting pressure on gold prices. However, factors such as the prolonged US government shutdown continued to provide support for gold prices. 2. Growing market concerns about the impact of a prolonged US government shutdown on economic performance limited the dollar's rise to its highest level since early August following the Fed's decision and dampened investor sentiment. This, in turn, became a key tailwind supporting safe-haven gold. However, the Fed's hawkish stance deterred gold bulls from making large bets. 3. The Fed cut its benchmark overnight lending rate to a range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday and indicated it would stop reducing its balance sheet as early as December, marking the end of its quantitative tightening program. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a further rate cut at the December meeting is not a certainty. This is beneficial for dollar bulls and limits the upside potential of non-yielding gold. 4. In addition, the latest optimism stemming from easing trade tensions between the US and China—the world's two largest economies—also helped to suppress gold prices. 5. Analysts point out that before confirming the end of the recent sharp pullback after reaching the all-time high earlier this month and positioning for any meaningful short-term appreciation, it is prudent to wait cautiously for strong follow-through buying.

10:28:04

China's steel industry PMI for October

Previous : 47.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 49.20

Previous

10:26:20

[National Development and Reform Commission: Promoting the Integration of the Data Industry with Data-Intensive Industries such as Low-Altitude Economy, Autonomous Driving, and Embodied Intelligence] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Action Plan for Deepening the Development of Smart Cities and Promoting the Digital Transformation of the Entire City." The plan proposes leveraging the advantages of urban industrial agglomeration, talent concentration, and data aggregation; strengthening open innovation in scenarios; and promoting the convergence of urban data resources. It also aims to accelerate the cultivation of the data element market, create a high ground for data industry innovation, and promote the integration of the data industry with data-intensive industries such as the low-altitude economy, autonomous driving, and embodied intelligence. The plan supports qualified regions in cultivating trustworthy urban data spaces, promoting the integrated application of public data, enterprise data, and personal data, and driving the development of the digital industry. It encourages the development of new business models such as "data as a service" and "model as a service" tailored to local conditions, cultivating innovative digital economy enterprises, and creating leading enterprises with ecosystem-leading capabilities. The plan also explores incentive mechanisms such as issuing data vouchers and model vouchers to reduce the cost of enterprise innovation investment.

10:21:15

[Xi Jinping Offers 5 Suggestions for APEC] Xi Jinping: Currently, the world is undergoing profound changes, a once-in-a-century transformation, with a complex and volatile international landscape, and increasing instability and uncertainty facing the Asia-Pacific region. The more turbulent the times, the more we must work together. We must uphold APEC's original mission of promoting economic growth and improving people's well-being, adhere to sharing opportunities and achieving win-win results through open development, advance inclusive economic globalization, and build an Asia-Pacific community. To this end, I offer five suggestions. First, jointly safeguard the multilateral trading system. Practice genuine multilateralism and enhance the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core. Uphold the correct direction of WTO reform, safeguard the fundamental principles of most-favored-nation treatment and non-discrimination, promote the modernization of international trade and economic rules, and better protect the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries. Second, jointly create an open regional economic environment. Continuously promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, deepen cooperation in the financial field, and steadily advance the process of regional economic integration. Seize the opportunities presented by the high-quality implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the expansion of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to promote mutual alignment and integration, thereby gathering momentum for the construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area. Third, jointly maintain the stability and smooth operation of industrial and supply chains. Adhere to the principle of "joining hands" rather than "letting go," and "extending chains" rather than "breaking chains," actively seeking more points of convergence and supporting the open development of supply chains. Taking the 10th anniversary of the APEC Connectivity Blueprint as an opportunity, continuously strengthen and refine hard connectivity, soft connectivity, and heart-to-heart connectivity, further consolidating the foundation for open development in the Asia-Pacific region. Fourth, jointly promote the digitalization and greening of trade. Give full play to the role of digital technology in promoting cross-border trade, and advance practical cooperation in areas such as paperless trade and smart customs. Break down various green barriers and expand cooperation in green industries, clean energy, and green minerals. The Asia-Pacific Demonstration Electronic Port Network and the Green Supply Chain Network, first initiated by China at APEC, have become important platforms for regional cooperation in the digitalization and greening of trade. Fifth, jointly promote inclusive and equitable development. Adhering to the people-centered development philosophy, China is committed to addressing development imbalances and promoting more inclusive and sustainable economic globalization that better benefits all people in the region. China is cooperating with all parties to advance high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, supporting more developing countries in achieving modernization, and opening up new space for global development. China has already granted zero-tariff treatment to 100% of products from the least developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations, and is willing to implement zero-tariff measures on 100% of products from African countries with which it has diplomatic relations through the signing of an agreement on a common economic partnership, striving for common development and shared prosperity with all countries. (CCTV)

10:14:56

New Zealand's M3 money supply in September

Previous : 4366.32 Forecast : -

Published Value 4401.52

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3937.67

-63.49

(-1.59%)

XAG

47.074

-0.985

(-2.05%)

CONC

60.35

-0.70

(-1.15%)

OILC

64.19

-0.62

(-0.96%)

USD

100.160

0.296

(0.30%)

EURUSD

1.1477

-0.0041

(-0.36%)

GBPUSD

1.3042

-0.0097

(-0.74%)

USDCNH

7.1320

0.0076

(0.11%)