Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

Singapore:12/24 22:26:56

Dubai:12/24 22:26:56

London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2025-10-31 Friday

2025-11-04

13:26:15

[Australian and New Zealand dollars extend their decline as lower expectations for a December Fed rate cut support the US dollar] 1. The market lowered its expectations for a December Fed rate cut, and the US dollar held firm, hovering near its near three-month high reached overnight. The Australian and New Zealand dollars extended their losses on Friday. 2. The Australian dollar is currently down 0.15% to US$0.6544, after falling 0.3% overnight, marking its second consecutive day of decline. It is some distance from its three-week high of US$0.6617, but is still on track for a 0.5% gain this week. The New Zealand dollar is currently down 0.28% to around US$0.5724, having also closed lower for two consecutive trading days. 3. A strong domestic inflation report dampened hopes for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut this year, supporting the relative strength of the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar is up 0.23% against the New Zealand dollar, and about 0.9% so far this week. 4. The market views the probability of the RBA cutting rates by 25 basis points to 3.35% on November 4th as near zero, with all economists surveyed expecting a 3.60% rate cut. The benchmark interest rate is expected to bottom out at 3.35% by mid-next year. 5. Westpac's chief economist, Luci Ellis, stated that policy remains restrictive, and there is reason to cut rates by 25 basis points twice more next year, the first time as early as May, and the second in August. CBA believes the easing cycle has ended, while NAB and ANZ expect one rate cut next year. 6. Additionally, investors expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% in November, and the expectation of a 50 basis point cut has largely disappeared.

13:09:14

Profits from self-bred and self-raised pig farming in China as of October 31

Previous : -185.68 Forecast : -

Published Value -89.33

Previous

13:09:13

Profits from purchased piglet farming in China as of October 31

Previous : -289.07 Forecast : -

Published Value -179.72

Previous

13:07:14

Annual rate of construction orders in Japan in September

Previous : 38.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 34.70%

Previous

13:05:38

The total number of new housing starts in Japan in September - not seasonally adjusted

Previous : 6 Forecast : -

Published Value 6.36

Previous

13:04:52

Japan's annual rate of new housing starts in September - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : -9.80% Forecast : -7.90%

日元

Published Value -7.30%

Previous

13:04:41

Japan's annualized total of new housing starts in September - seasonally adjusted

Previous : 71.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 63.57

Previous

13:00:56

Japan's annual rate of new housing starts in September - unadjusted seasonally

Previous : -9.80% Forecast : -7.90%

Published Value -7.27%

Previous

13:00:02

Singapore's business outlook for the third quarter - Optimistic net proportion of manufacturing for the next six months

Previous : 5% Forecast : -

Published Value 8%

Previous

12:31:21

Japan's METI kerosene sales year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -8.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.30%

Previous

12:31:18

Japan's METI total oil product sales year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -1.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.50%

Previous

12:31:18

Japan's METI crude oil imports year-on-year rate in September

Previous : -1.90% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.90%

Previous

11:11:23

[Hot Topic Analysis: Data Gap + Stubborn Inflation Changes the Outlook for a December Fed Rate Cut] 1. Despite investors' hopes for further easing, the Fed's meeting on Wednesday revealed an unclear path for rate cuts. Data shortages, persistent inflation, and disagreements among officials have added uncertainty to market expectations regarding future policy. 2. Fed Chairman Powell unexpectedly poured cold water on the idea, stating that a December rate cut is "not a done deal," far below the market's previous near-certain expectations. Following his remarks, Wall Street stocks gave back gains, and bonds were sold off. 3. The Fed's expected 25 basis point rate cut and announcement that it would stop shrinking its balance sheet as early as December had already been priced in by the market. The real shock comes from the lack of key data such as labor force data due to the US government shutdown, increasing the difficulty of policy and investment decisions. 4. BNY Americas macro strategist John Velis stated that the data vacuum will make the Fed's actions six weeks from now unpredictable, and expectations for a December rate cut may fluctuate significantly, triggering market turmoil. 5. Jim Caron, Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, pointed out that Powell's uncertain comments have cast doubt on market expectations of a 3% interest rate cut by 2026, but a slowdown in the labor market could still provide a reason for a December rate cut. 6. Despite this, investors have not given up hope. LSEG interest rate futures show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen from 95% a week ago to 73% currently, but traders maintain their expectation of around 3% interest rates by the end of next year. 7. Michael Arone, Chief Strategist at State Street Investments, expects data to show weak employment, supporting action in December; Bespoke Investment, however, believes the meeting was hawkish, paving the way for a further downward revision of the probability of a rate cut.

10:31:37

Gold prices retreated slightly as the dollar held firm amid hawkish Fed stance. 1. Spot gold weakened slightly in Asian trading on Friday, currently trading around $4012.5 per ounce, down about 0.2%, as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve dampened expectations of a December rate cut. The dollar hit a near three-month high on Thursday, and the dollar index fluctuated around that level on Friday, putting pressure on gold prices. However, factors such as the prolonged US government shutdown continued to provide support for gold prices. 2. Growing market concerns about the impact of a prolonged US government shutdown on economic performance limited the dollar's rise to its highest level since early August following the Fed's decision and dampened investor sentiment. This, in turn, became a key tailwind supporting safe-haven gold. However, the Fed's hawkish stance deterred gold bulls from making large bets. 3. The Fed cut its benchmark overnight lending rate to a range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday and indicated it would stop reducing its balance sheet as early as December, marking the end of its quantitative tightening program. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a further rate cut at the December meeting is not a certainty. This is beneficial for dollar bulls and limits the upside potential of non-yielding gold. 4. In addition, the latest optimism stemming from easing trade tensions between the US and China—the world's two largest economies—also helped to suppress gold prices. 5. Analysts point out that before confirming the end of the recent sharp pullback after reaching the all-time high earlier this month and positioning for any meaningful short-term appreciation, it is prudent to wait cautiously for strong follow-through buying.

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

3956.70

-44.46

(-1.11%)

XAG

47.337

-0.722

(-1.50%)

CONC

60.54

-0.51

(-0.84%)

OILC

64.39

-0.43

(-0.67%)

USD

100.140

0.276

(0.28%)

EURUSD

1.1481

-0.0037

(-0.33%)

GBPUSD

1.3045

-0.0094

(-0.71%)

USDCNH

7.1336

0.0092

(0.13%)