Real-Time Financial News | 24/7 Market Updates

Sydney：12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo：12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong：12/24 22:26:56

Singapore：12/24 22:26:56

Dubai：12/24 22:26:56

London：12/24 22:26:56

New York：12/24 22:26:56

2025-12-16 Tuesday

2025-12-20

20:44:13

Bessant: There may be one or two more Fed interviews this week.

20:43:55

Bessant: This year, we will narrow the budget gap by hundreds of billions of dollars; there are many revenue alternatives besides IEEPA tariffs.

20:43:37

Bessant: There is also speculation that the Supreme Court will rule on tariffs in early January.

20:43:25

Bessant: The Fed Chair is expected to announce the news in early January.

20:42:47

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister stated that while the possibility of a Russian attack on the UK is small, it is not zero. Prime Minister Starmer told the Cabinet that the UK will achieve recovery by 2026. The possibility of a Russian attack on the UK is small, but not zero.

20:42:04

[Morocco's Manufacturing Output Growth Slows in Q3] ⑴ Morocco's manufacturing output grew by 2.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, a slowdown from the 7% growth in the previous three months, partly reflecting the base effect. ⑵ The main contributors to growth were the food industry (11.3%), other non-metallic mineral products (12.2%), chemical industry (4.3%), automobiles (7.4%), rubber and plastic products (16.2%), and other transport equipment (19.9%). ⑶ Conversely, tobacco products (down 28.4%), pharmaceuticals (down 17.3%), metal products (excluding machinery, down 6.6%), and metallurgy (down 8.0%) all declined.

20:41:48

[Kyrgyzstan's Inflation Eases in November] ⑴ Kyrgyzstan's annual inflation rate slowed to 9.2% in November, down from 9.3% previously. ⑵ The main downward pressure came from slower price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 10.5%, from 10.6% in October), housing and utilities (up 14.7%, from 16.2% in October), healthcare (up 11.5%, from 11.8% in October), and transportation (up 6.2%, from 6.9% in October). ⑶ On the other hand, inflation in household appliances (up 3.8%, from 2.6% in October), entertainment (up 8.5%, from 7.5% in October), and other goods and services (up 11.5%, from 9.8% in October) rose further. ⑷ On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.1% in November, a slower pace than the previous month's 1.5%.

20:35:26

[Caixin Futures: Most Agricultural Products Sector Under Pressure, Oilseeds Show Weak Performance] ⑴ The oilseed sector declined overall today. Customs data shows that from January to November, cumulative imports of vegetable oil reached 6.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; from January to October, imports of rapeseed oil reached 1.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%; imports of palm oil liquid reached 1.94 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16%; and imports of soybean oil reached 290,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%. ⑵ In the spot market, the pre-holiday bulk oil purchasing window for branded vegetable oils is nearing its end, and spot prices are generally weakening. Specifically, the spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from yesterday; the spot price of soybean oil is 8390 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9400 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. ⑶ From a trading logic perspective, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that social retail sales declined year-on-year in November, with catering and grain and oil sub-categories declining by 0.6% and 3% year-on-year, respectively. Coupled with the current high inventory levels of oilseeds, a sell-on-rallies strategy is recommended. (4) Soybean meal futures have been fluctuating recently. US soybean prices have gradually returned to rationality from previous optimistic export expectations, leading to a pullback. Domestic soybean meal prices are generally bearish in the medium term due to lower import costs and ongoing domestic pressure. (5) Recently, tightened customs policies have delayed the arrival of some imported soybeans, causing domestic soybean meal prices to stabilize. Short-term, it is recommended to sell on rallies. (6) Recent market declines have somewhat dampened farmers' reluctance to sell, leading to increased selling activity. However, northern port inventories remain low year-on-year, and the logic of short-term restocking demand driving a stronger corn spot market remains. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then buy on dips. Continued monitoring of farmers' selling sentiment is necessary. (7) With the winter solstice approaching, the peak season for cured meat demand is approaching, leading to a stronger spot market. Coupled with news of swine disease in northern China, spot prices have rebounded. However, the long-term supply situation remains loose. It is recommended to sell short the March hog contract on rallies, paying attention to the slaughtering pace and the peak demand during the winter solstice. (8) Spot egg prices have been mainly fluctuating within a range recently. Although the egg 01 contract is a peak season contract, it is still maintaining a high premium, indicating a high valuation. It is recommended to consider shorting at appropriate times, but it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of changes in feed costs such as corn and soybean meal on egg prices.

20:34:29

[Caixin Futures: Energy and Chemical Sector Under Pressure, Most Commodities Remain Weak] ⑴ Geopolitically, the US continues to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, but the effects are still not obvious, and the possibility of a short-term end to the conflict is unlikely; the US is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, and geopolitical tensions continue. ⑵ However, recently, crude oil prices have encountered pressure and fallen back between the 20-day and 60-day moving averages, while global land and sea inventories remain high. Downstream refined oil demand is weak, and inventories have rebounded beyond seasonal norms, so crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. ⑶ The recent geopolitical situation has become more complex. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are still ongoing, but a result is unlikely in the short term, and the probability of a US military strike against Venezuela is increasing. The expectation of reduced supply of high-sulfur fuel oil due to sanctions remains, but crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to weakening downstream demand. ⑷ Losses have worsened, and expectations for float glass cold repairs and production conversions have strengthened, but the market is worried about an early rebound in prices, leading to delays or cancellations of cold repair plans. Furthermore, midstream inventories are large, causing spot and futures prices to fall again. (5) Overall, glass demand has weakened significantly year-on-year, with a clear "low valuation and weak driving force," and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels. If the year-end cold repair plans are gradually implemented, the downside will be limited. (6) The Alashan Phase II plant has been ignited, and the new production line of the Applied Chemical Plant will also be ignited, bringing renewed pressure on the supply and demand sides. On Monday, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 38,700 tons compared to last Thursday, an increase of 2.59%. (7) Overall, with more major plants undergoing maintenance in December, soda ash can basically achieve a supply-demand balance supported by low operating rates. However, the market is still suppressed by declining costs, expectations of supply recovery, and overcapacity. Short selling on rallies is advisable. (8) On December 15, spot prices for liquid soda ash showed mixed trends. The significant destocking last week and this week was mainly due to the delivery of previously signed outsourced orders. After the phased destocking, some companies began to rebound at low prices, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, and caustic soda is still in a state of high supply and high inventory. (9) The current weak market sentiment persists, and with alumina prices continuing to fall and expectations of production cuts strengthening, coupled with the off-season for non-aluminum products, caustic soda prices are likely to remain low and fluctuate. (10) Today, the spot price in Taicang was 2103, down 2, while the price in Inner Mongolia North Line was 1955, down 12.5 from the previous month. With near-month arrivals being relatively high, current inventory levels high, and a large number of warehouse receipts, bullish funds are hesitant. Due to the risk of reduced imports in distant months caused by Iranian gas restrictions, the near-term outlook remains weak while the far-term outlook remains strong. The downside potential for the 05 contract may be limited. (11) The methanol market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with price fluctuations narrowing.

20:33:11

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Non-ferrous Metals and New Energy Sectors; Focus on Macroeconomic Data and Supply-Demand Changes] ⑴ On the macro front, the Fed's December meeting was dovish, and the next Fed is likely to be dovish, leading to continued market optimism. The market focus is currently on the upcoming November non-farm payroll report, which will determine how much and how quickly the US federal target rate will be lowered from its current level. ⑵ On the fundamental front, copper supply is limited by both domestic and imported sources, but year-end sales sentiment has increased significantly, resulting in ample supply in the spot market. Strategically, we believe it is still advisable to buy on dips. ⑶ On the zinc fundamental front, zinc concentrate processing fees continue to decline, smelters' profits are affected, reducing their willingness to produce, and domestic zinc ingot inventories are continuously decreasing, providing support on the supply side and leading to a short-term price strength. Considering the long-term outlook, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the zinc supply-demand balance tends to have a surplus. The realization of the current surplus expectation still depends on further transmission from the mining to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. ⑷ In the long term, precious metal prices remain supported, and the strategy is to buy on dips. Given the recent sharp price fluctuations, investors should exercise caution and avoid chasing highs and selling lows. (5) Alumina prices rebounded significantly due to anti-involution sentiment. However, the fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, with some high-cost enterprises already facing losses, but no large-scale production cuts have occurred, and inventory continues to accumulate. (6) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the overall oversupply situation. A trend reversal is unlikely in the short term, and short-term participation in rebound short-term strategies is advisable. Future attention should be paid to whether production enterprises experience loss-making production cuts, and to guard against unexpected supply-side shocks. (7) Affected by the decline in global market risk appetite, Shanghai aluminum followed the decline in non-ferrous metals in Friday night trading. However, given the generally bullish macroeconomic environment both domestically and internationally, coupled with expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum remains unchanged, and the strategy remains to buy on dips. Subsequent attention should be paid to domestic demand and inventory trends. (8) Lithium carbonate futures rose sharply today, reaching the upper limit of the trading range. Attention should be paid to whether prices can break through in the short term. (9) Destocking of lithium carbonate is likely to continue in December, with an estimated reduction of around 6,000 tons, providing short-term price support. (10) Overall, with stronger-than-expected demand for energy storage, demand remains supported, and the view of a rising medium- to long-term price center for lithium carbonate remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Going forward, attention should be paid to the project's resumption progress, the follow-up developments of the Nigerian mine shutdown and ore shipments, and the pace of changes in lithium carbonate production and inventory.

20:30:58

[Caixin Futures: Short-Term Outlook for the Ferrous Metals Market Diverges, Focus on Cost and Demand Game] ⑴ Against the backdrop of continued contraction in pig iron production, the pressure of high steel inventory is gradually easing; however, demand expectations remain weak, and the upward drive for steel itself is insufficient. Considering the approaching winter stockpiling period for raw materials, short-term steel futures prices may mainly follow the fluctuations of raw materials (the rebar 05 contract may remain within the range of 3065 to 3120). ⑵ From the perspective of capital structure, both long and short positions in the top 20 positions of rebar and hot-rolled coil 05 contracts have reduced, reflecting the current cautious market sentiment. Overall, the supply and demand drivers for steel are relatively limited, and short-term price trends may be anchored to changes in the cost side, with limited overall volatility. Operationally, it is recommended to focus on the actual pace and strength of the winter stockpiling of raw materials. ⑶ From a practical perspective, pig iron production continues to decline, and port inventories are accumulating and at an absolute high level, putting overall pressure on iron ore prices. In terms of expectations, steel mills' imported ore inventories have fallen to a relatively low level in recent years, and with the approaching winter stockpiling window, the expectation of price bottom support is gradually strengthening. (4) In the short term, the iron ore 05 contract may continue to fluctuate between 745 and 775 yuan. In terms of capital structure, both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders, with a more significant increase in short positions, resulting in a slightly bearish overall position change. Overall, the iron ore market is facing a mix of real pressure and expected support, lacking a clear unidirectional driver in the short term, and the oscillating pattern may continue. The pace of steel mill restocking and port inventory reduction need to be closely monitored. (5) Mongolian coal clearance remains high, while domestic coal mines, after completing their annual targets, are continuing to expand maintenance and production reduction efforts, leading to an overall contraction in supply. On the demand side, market sentiment is generally weak, with some coking plants seeing a rebound in purchases (some coal mines have already begun raising prices). Under this supply and demand situation, the futures price may have gradually solidified a temporary bottom. (6) In terms of capital, both long and short positions increased among the top 20 holders of the coking coal 05 contract, with a more significant increase in long positions, resulting in a more optimistic position structure. Overall, the market is showing signs of bottom support due to the combined effects of tightening supply and expectations of winter stockpiling demand. Operationally, it is recommended to closely monitor the stabilization of spot prices and the spread of price increases, and consider taking advantage of short-term buying opportunities at lower levels. (7) Environmental protection-related production restrictions in production areas continue to have an impact, further tightening regional supply. On the demand side, affected by the continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak, and coking plant inventories are gradually accumulating. The third round of spot price reductions is expected to be implemented this week. (8) From a valuation perspective, the current coking coal 01 contract price already reflects the expectation of about five rounds of price reductions (based on dry quenching coking), while the spot market generally expects only about three rounds. The futures price has largely reflected the pessimistic expectations for the spot market, and the valuation has entered a relatively low range.

20:29:53

[Strategy Rotation: Bank of America Survey Reveals Global Funds Are Withdrawing from These Assets] ⑴ According to Bank of America's global fund manager survey released in December, investors reduced their holdings of euro-denominated assets that month. ⑵ Other asset classes that saw reductions during the same period included bonds and healthcare stocks. ⑶ Fund flows were concentrated on increasing holdings of materials, technology stocks, and US stocks. ⑷ The survey showed that a net 13% of investors believed the euro was undervalued, a figure unchanged from the November survey. ⑸ This adjustment in asset allocation reflects investors' overall optimistic sentiment, leading to specific sector and regional rotations, a preference for growth and inflation themes, and caution towards European assets.

20:28:45

[Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis] Looking at the daily candlestick chart, after falling from the previous high of $65.27, the price initially fluctuated between $62.50 and $63.50 before breaking below the previous low of $61.51, with the bears pushing the price below $60. Recent bearish candlesticks show a downward trend with lower highs and lower lows, indicating significant resistance from the trendline. Meanwhile, after touching the lower shadow at $59.41, the price has returned to $59.63, suggesting some support near the $60 level, but this appears more like a technical pause than a trend reversal. Momentum indicators show the MACD with DIFF at -0.79, DEA at -0.52, and the MACD histogram at -0.54, all below the zero line and showing weakness, indicating that downward momentum remains dominant. The RSI is 34.14, close to the oversold threshold but not yet extreme, suggesting a potential short-term technical rebound, but this rebound is likely to be met with resistance at resistance levels. Structurally, three price bands are worth noting: the first support level is $59.41; a decisive break below this level could trigger a "stop-loss chain" leading to accelerated price swings. The first resistance levels are $60 and $61.30; only a recovery and hold above these levels could potentially pull the price back to the previous consolidation zone around $62.50. Further up, $63.50 represents the previous consolidation range, often a point of contention between short covering and bullish attempts. More significant resistance lies at $64 and $64.80; a rebound reaching these levels but failing to hold could easily turn into a second downward move, with support turning into resistance. The top of $65.27 is a reference point for the starting point of this downward move; only by regaining this range can the daily chart structure shift from a downtrend to a higher-level consolidation market.

20:26:29

$60 Can't Be Held: How Did Oil Floating at Sea Drive Down Prices on Land? Details>

20:18:17

Spot gold has just broken through the $4290.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4290.02/ounce, down 0.35% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4318.20/ounce, down 0.39% on the day.

20:17:48

[The Cost of AI Frenzy: Oracle's Billion-Dollar Debt Financing Triggers Credit Alarm] ⑴ Oracle's aggressive AI capital expenditure plan has brought its bonds into the market spotlight, with investors scrutinizing the potential cracks behind the AI boom. ⑵ JPMorgan's credit analysts point out that the pressure on the company's bonds is expected to persist into 2026. ⑶ Last week, Oracle's stock price suffered its biggest weekly drop in nearly 11 months, and its credit risk index also climbed to a 16-year high. ⑷ The immediate cause of market concerns was the company's latest earnings report: revenue fell short of market expectations, while the company significantly increased its annual capital expenditure target by $15 billion and more than doubled its future lease commitments. ⑸ The company's co-CEOs stated their commitment to maintaining an investment-grade debt rating and indicated that the actual borrowing size may be lower than analysts' predictions of over $100 billion. ⑹ However, analysts point out that the real challenge for investors lies in management's plan to continue relying almost entirely on debt to finance its massive investments. (7) Against the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the specific timeline and upper limit of investment returns, this debt-dependent financing strategy has caused frustration and concern in the market.

20:10:59

[German Manufacturing Dragging Down the Eurozone's Economic Recovery: The Achilles' Heel] ⑴ Analysts at Commerzbank pointed out that the performance of German manufacturing was particularly disappointing in the December Eurozone PMI data, with its business climate index further deviating from the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction. ⑵ Data shows that the German manufacturing PMI fell from 48.2 in November to 47.7 in December, while the French manufacturing PMI rose from 47.8 to a 40-month high of 50.6 during the same period, creating a stark contrast. ⑶ Analysts believe that for Germany, the stimulative effect of the key interest rate cut is clearly insufficient to offset the headwinds from US tariffs and increasingly fierce competition from China. ⑷ Despite the weakness in German manufacturing, the overall Eurozone PMI reading for December still points to a moderate economic recovery. ⑸ The significant divergence in manufacturing data between Germany and France highlights the structural differences in economic momentum within the Eurozone, with Germany's slowdown as a traditional engine casting a shadow over the region's prospects.

20:09:46

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1810.00/oz mark, last trading at $1810.35/oz, up 1.90% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1843.1/oz, up 1.50% on the day.

20:07:03

[Liu Qing: Supporting the Transformation of Scientific Research Achievements Requires a "Combined Allocation and Investment" Approach to Funding] On December 16th, Liu Qing, Director of the Yangtze River Delta National Technology Innovation Center, stated that to address the difficulty of securing early-stage financing for some forward-looking and pioneering technology projects, it is necessary to innovate the way fiscal funds are used, adopting a "combined allocation and investment" model to support major innovation projects. He explained that the "combined allocation and investment" approach involves, based on a comprehensive assessment of the project, first providing research and development funding to the team through science and technology project approval. Once the project's progress gains market recognition and social financing is initiated, the initial R&D investment is converted into investment at market prices, managed and exited in a market-oriented manner, and a mechanism for diligence, responsibility, and tolerance for failure is implemented. He believes this mechanism has advantages such as team investment and deep participation, solving the problem of early-stage financing failures, and forming a sustainable development model. (China News Service)

20:03:45

The European Parliament voted to strengthen safeguards on sensitive agricultural products covered by the EU-Mercosur trade agreement.

20:00:50

[Resilience Fails Against Weakness: European Economy Enters New Year Amid "Internal Divergence"] ⑴ Latest data shows that major European economies experienced weak growth momentum at the end of the year. Despite successfully weathering the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric, the region showed few signs of recovery. ⑵ The Eurozone economy performed better than the most pessimistic expectations, partially offsetting the impact of rising US tariffs on exports and reinforcing market perceptions that the European Central Bank has ended its rate-cutting cycle. ⑶ However, economic resilience does not equate to health; its growth rate was only slightly above 1%, constrained by cautious household consumption and high government debt. ⑷ The preliminary reading of the Eurozone composite PMI for December fell to a three-month low of 51.9, below expectations, mainly dragged down by a sharp contraction in German manufacturing. However, this reading still corresponds to a respectable GDP growth in the fourth quarter. ⑸ The German ZEW investor confidence index, released on the same day, rebounded more than expected, and the Eurozone's trade surplus in October only narrowed slightly, adding a bright spot to the otherwise gloomy data. (6) Outside the EU, in the UK, business activity has gained some new momentum as uncertainty surrounding the government's fiscal plan to increase taxes has dissipated, but this may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates again this Thursday. (7) The European Central Bank's policy path is clearer, as recent hard data on economic growth, the labor market, and industrial output have all exceeded surveys and expectations, and a significant drop in energy costs has also improved terms of trade. (8) The market has fully priced in no further rate cuts by the ECB in 2026 and expects the next move to be a rate hike, while increased government spending in Germany is expected to significantly boost GDP growth over the next two years.

19:56:47

Thai Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Marathi M. reiterated at a press conference on the Thai-Cambodian border situation on December 16 that "as the invading party, Cambodia must be the first to declare a ceasefire." She stated that in addition to the above conditions, Thailand also demands that the ceasefire "actually occur and be continuously implemented," and that Cambodia must cooperate in clearing landmines with a "serious and sincere attitude." Marathi emphasized that the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and Foreign Ministry spokesperson have repeatedly expressed Thailand's position publicly. She also revealed that Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Pongjikul will attend the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Special Meeting on the Thai-Cambodian situation on December 22, and details regarding the participation of other ASEAN countries are being coordinated. According to updated data from the press conference, as of the morning of December 16, this round of Thai-Cambodian conflict has resulted in the deaths of 17 Thai soldiers and 16 Thai civilians, with over 260,000 people displaced. (Xinhua)

19:55:36

Mercedes will close its COMPAS plant in Mexico.

19:55:12

Pfizer expects its adjusted R&D expenses to be between $10.5 billion and $11.5 billion in 2026.

19:54:49

Mozambique and the United States signed a five-year, $1.8 billion healthcare financing agreement.

19:51:27

[Uruguay's GDP Growth Slows in Q3] ⑴ Uruguay's GDP grew by 1.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, a slowdown from the 2.2% growth in the previous quarter, due to weak activity in several key sectors. ⑵ On the positive side, trade, accommodation, and food services grew by 5.4%, and financial services grew by 3.0%. Healthcare, education, real estate activities, and other services also contributed, growing by a combined 0.8%. ⑶ In contrast, manufacturing contracted by 2.1%, construction declined by 3.1%, and agriculture, fisheries, and mining saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, dragging down overall growth. ⑷ Total value added increased by 0.8%, while net tax revenue from products grew strongly by 4.3%.

19:51:13

[Israel's Q3 GDP Growth Hits Six-Quarter High] ⑴ Israel's economy grew at an annualized rate of 11% in the third quarter of 2025, lower than the initial estimate of 12.4%, but a significant rebound from the upward-revised 4.8% contraction in the second quarter caused by conflict and tensions. ⑵ The latest data marks the fastest GDP growth since the first quarter of 2024, mainly driven by a surge in private consumption (21.6%) and fixed investment (34%). ⑶ In addition, government spending grew by 4.4%, net trade contributed positively, and exports (16.9%) grew faster than imports (13.7%).

19:50:42

Inflation persists, PMI data poses a potential risk! Euro bulls face a test of their high-stakes gamble. Details>

19:40:23

GBP/USD surged above 1.34, with market focus on the Bank of England. Details>

19:39:49

Is the US dollar "hanging in mid-air"? A data storm is approaching. Details>

19:32:04

Australia expects its budget deficit to narrow to A$36.8 billion in fiscal year 2026.

19:26:06

[Extreme Sentiment: When "Cash Depletion" and "Crowded Trading" Simultaneously Flash Red Lights] ⑴ Bank of America's December Global Fund Manager Survey shows that global investor bullish sentiment has reached its highest point in the past three and a half years, driven by "hot" macroeconomic and policy expectations. ⑵ Market positioning has adjusted accordingly, with cash holdings falling to a record low of 3.3%, while the allocation to stocks and commodities has risen to its highest level since February 2022. ⑶ The bull-bear index used in the survey has risen to 7.9, approaching the threshold for issuing a "sell signal," and the report states that current positioning has become a "significant headwind" for risk assets. ⑷ Investors believe the biggest tail risk is a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector, followed by disorderly rising bond yields. ⑸ As many as 54% of respondents believe that "going long on the seven major tech giants" is currently the most crowded trade in the market, while "going long on gold" ranks second with 29% of the vote. (6) The coexistence of extremely optimistic sentiment, extremely low cash levels, and highly concentrated trading positions indicates that market fragility is rising.

19:14:06

[Interest Rate Spread Map: The Global Interest Rate "Anchoring" Effect of the US and Germany] ⑴ Using the German 2-year government bond yield as a benchmark, Australia has the highest interest rate spread at +188.1 basis points, followed by the UK and the US at +162.5 and +136.9 basis points respectively. ⑵ In contrast, Japan has the largest negative interest rate spread with Germany at -108.3 basis points, followed by Denmark at -45.6 basis points. ⑶ Using the US 2-year Treasury yield as a benchmark, only Australia and the UK have yields higher than the US, with spreads of +51.2 and +25.6 basis points respectively. ⑷ The yields of bonds in most developed countries are significantly lower than those in the US, with Japan having the largest negative interest rate spread with the US at -245.3 basis points. ⑸ Comparing 10-year government bonds, the US yield remains the highest globally, while the yields in Australia and the UK are higher than those in the US, with spreads of +55.5 and +34.3 basis points respectively. (6) Yields on 10-year government bonds in major European economies are lower than those in the United States, with Germany's negative spread against the US reaching -133.3 basis points and Japan's as high as -222.9 basis points. (7) Data shows that short-term US and German government bonds have become key "anchors" for measuring risk premiums and monetary policy differences in other markets.

19:10:36

[Cash Shortage, Crowded Trades and Tail Risks Amidst Extreme Market Greed] ⑴ Bank of America's December global fund manager survey showed that respondents' average cash holdings fell to 3.3%, a record low, down from 3.7% previously. ⑵ Meanwhile, investors' allocation to stocks and commodities rose to its highest level since February 2022. ⑶ The survey indicated that global investor bullish sentiment reached its highest point in the past three and a half years, driven by fervent macroeconomic and policy expectations. ⑷ However, this extreme optimism harbors hidden risks; a staggering 54% of respondents considered "going long on the seven major tech giants" to be the most crowded trade in the market. ⑸ "Going long on gold" ranked second among the most crowded trades with 29% of the vote, reflecting the accumulation of large long positions in safe-haven assets. ⑹ Regarding the biggest tail risks in the market, investors' primary concern is the potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector, followed by disorderly rising bond yields. (7) Cash levels have fallen to rock bottom, coupled with highly concentrated trading positions, indicating that market sentiment has entered a period of extreme greed, reducing its ability to buffer against potential shocks.

19:07:28

[Prolonged Tightening Warnings and Inflation Concerns Force Brazil's Central Bank to Maintain Hawkish Stance] ⑴ The Central Bank of Brazil reiterated in its meeting minutes that inflation drivers remain unfavorable, and the central bank will continue to monitor the pace of economic activity. ⑵ At the same time, the central bank will closely monitor inflation expectations, exchange rate transmission effects, risk balance, and the dynamic changes in current inflation itself. ⑶ Based on its assessment of the current situation and prospects, the central bank believes that the current circumstances require monetary policy to maintain a significantly tight stance for an extended period. ⑷ The minutes emphasized that the previous firm interest rate hikes were necessary to address the deteriorating inflation situation at the time. ⑸ The latest inflation data continues to show better dynamics than expected at the beginning of the year, with service sector inflation, while more resilient, showing signs of slowing. ⑹ The central bank believes that the current tight monetary policy has played a decisive role in the observed decline in inflation. ⑺ The labor market remains very tight, but initial signs of slowing have emerged. ⑻ Domestic economic activity, as expected, continues on a moderate growth trajectory, providing room for the central bank to maintain its tight stance.

19:05:32

[Dollar Weakening: Market Focuses on US Data to Judge Rate Cut Path] ⑴ Since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision last week, the US dollar has continued to weaken against major currencies. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and set a higher threshold for further rate cuts, but Fed Chairman Powell's press conference remarks were considered quite dovish. ⑵ In fact, he did not try to remain neutral and emphasize data dependence, but instead downplayed inflation risks and highlighted the weakness in the labor market, suggesting that he tolerates higher inflation more than a weaker labor market. ⑶ Market focus has now shifted to the US non-farm payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Current market pricing indicates that the Fed will cumulatively cut rates by 58 basis points by the end of 2026. ⑷ If US data is strong, especially regarding the labor market, the market may see a hawkish repricing, thus providing support for the dollar. On the other hand, weak data could further depress the dollar, as the market will bring forward its rate cut expectations.

19:04:26

[Kyrgyzstan's Industrial Output Jumps 12.7% in November] ⑴ Kyrgyzstan's industrial output rose 12.7% year-on-year in November, accelerating from 2.2% in October. ⑵ The accelerated growth was mainly driven by a strong rebound in manufacturing (up 14.9%, compared to a 0.5% decline in October), particularly in base metals (up 16.2%, compared to a 5.3% decline in October), food and tobacco (up 9.5%, compared to a 6.3% decline in October), and coke and refined petroleum products (up 23.3%, compared to 4.1% in October). ⑶ Meanwhile, output growth slowed in water supply (up 21.7%, compared to 24.3% in October), electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 2.9%, compared to 8.9% in October), and mining and quarrying (up 1.7%, compared to 21.6% in October). ⑷ Industrial activity is projected to increase by 10% year-on-year during the period from January to October 2025.

19:03:28

[Optimism Soars: Global Fund Managers' Confidence in a Soft Landing Reaches Unprecedented Highs] ⑴ Bank of America's December global fund manager survey shows that investor optimism about the macroeconomic outlook has risen to its highest level since August 2021. ⑵ Specifically, the net margin of global economic growth expectations jumped sharply from 3% to 18%, demonstrating a significant improvement in expectations. ⑶ Bank of America analysis points out that this strong optimism is mainly driven by robust earnings expectations, with a net margin of 29%, also the highest since August 2021. ⑷ The survey shows that as many as 57% of surveyed fund managers believe that the economy will achieve a "soft landing," meaning that while inflation slows, the economy will not fall into recession. ⑸ Current market sentiment and stock price performance are catching up, indicating that investors are reassessing and supporting existing valuation levels based on improved economic expectations.

19:03:24

[German Investor Confidence Improves in December] ⑴ Germany's economic sentiment index rose sharply to 45.8 in December, the highest level in five months, higher than November's 38.5 and the market expectation of 38.5. ⑵ The automotive industry (up 7.7 points to -22) and other export-oriented industries, including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and metal production, all saw improved sentiment. ⑶ Professor Ashim Wambach, Chairman of the Centre for European Economic Research, said: "Expectations have become more positive. After three years of economic stagnation, the possibility of economic recovery is high, which is reflected in sentiment indicators. Expansionary fiscal policies will provide new impetus to the German economy. However, the recovery remains fragile. Measures to address ongoing trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and underinvestment are likely to be included in the 2026 reform agenda." ⑷ On the other hand, the assessment indicator of the current situation deteriorated to -81, the lowest since May, compared to -78.7 in April and a market expectation of -80.

19:02:59

[US Non-Farm Payrolls Expected to Increase by 50,000 in November] ⑴ US non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 50,000 in November. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a high of 4.4% for 2021, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3%. ⑵ This delayed November jobs report is likely to confirm a continued cooling of the labor market, with job growth concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as leisure and hospitality. ⑶ Meanwhile, due to the government shutdown and the inability to collect sufficient data retrospectively, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of the October employment situation report. ⑷ Therefore, when released along with the November data, only partial data on the October labor market will be published, and the unemployment rate will not be reported.

19:02:30

[Hawkward Stance: Why Does the Central Bank of Brazil Hold the Sword of Interest Rate Hikes?] ⑴ The Central Bank of Brazil released the minutes of its December 9-10 policy meeting on Tuesday, deciding to maintain the benchmark interest rate at its current high of 15.00%. ⑵ The minutes showed that the committee believed economic activity was continuing its moderate slowdown, current inflation was declining, and the downward trend in inflation expectations was continuing. ⑶ The central bank emphasized that its prudent monetary policy had been effective in combating inflation. ⑷ The committee reiterated its vigilance and made it clear that it would not hesitate to resume the interest rate hike cycle if the situation required it. ⑸ The central bank reaffirmed its firm commitment to bringing the inflation rate back to the target level, highlighting its continued hawkish policy stance. ⑹ The continuation of the high-interest-rate environment reflects that, between the economic slowdown and inflation risks, the Central Bank of Brazil still prioritizes curbing inflation as its primary policy objective.

19:02:20

[Eurozone Investor Confidence Rises to Five-Month High in December] ⑴ The Eurozone's economic sentiment index rose 8.7 points month-on-month to 33.7 in December, the highest reading in five months and above market expectations of 26.3. ⑵ The survey showed that approximately 57.1% of analysts expect economic activity to remain unchanged, 38.3% predict improvement, and 4.6% expect it to worsen. ⑶ Meanwhile, the current economic conditions indicator fell 1.2 points to -28.5, while inflation expectations fell 1.9 points to -4.6.

19:02:02

[Eurozone Trade Surplus Widens in October] ⑴ The Eurozone trade surplus widened significantly to €18.4 billion in October, compared to €7.1 billion in the same period last year, driven by increased exports and decreased imports. ⑵ Within the broader EU, the trade surplus also climbed to €14.7 billion from €3.1 billion in October 2024. ⑶ EU exports rose 1.0% to €258 billion, mainly driven by increased shipments of machinery and vehicles (up 1.5%), food and beverages (up 0.9%), and raw materials (up 1.8%).

19:01:29

[Soybean Futures Fall to Seven-Week Low] ⑴ Soybean futures fell towards $10.70 per bushel, hitting a seven-week low, as concerns about slowing U.S. soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian harvest weighed on the market. ⑵ Purchases of U.S. soybeans have remained weak, with confirmed sales since late October amounting to only 3.516 million tons, far below market expectations of 12 million tons, suppressing market sentiment. ⑶ As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export inspections fell 22% from the previous week and 46% year-on-year. Meanwhile, speculative funds held substantial net long positions, increasing the risk of liquidation. ⑷ On the supply side, Brazilian soybean planting is 97% complete, and expectations of a bumper South American harvest continue to put downward pressure on prices.

18:59:06

[Italy's October Trade Surplus Narrows Less Than Expected] ⑴ Italy's trade surplus narrowed to €4.16 billion in October, compared to €4.62 billion in the same period last year, but was higher than the market expectation of €3.22 billion, as export growth lagged behind import growth. ⑵ Exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year to €58.56 billion, mainly supported by increased sales to the EU market (0.5%) and non-EU markets (4.1%). ⑶ The sectors contributing most to export growth were pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical chemicals and plant products (18.5%) and basic metals and metal products (excluding machinery and equipment, 13.7%). ⑷ Among major trading partners, exports to Switzerland (34.9%), the United States (9.7%), OPEC countries (15.8%), Spain (7.3%), and France (3.7%) saw the most significant growth. (5) Meanwhile, imports grew even faster, increasing by 3.4% year-on-year to €54.41 billion, with purchases from non-EU markets (up 4.2%) exceeding those from the EU market (up 2.7%). (6) From January to October this year, the country's trade surplus was €39.6 billion, roughly the same as the €39.8 billion in the same period of 2024.

18:47:07

[Xi Jinping Listens to Chief Executive John Lee's Report] On the afternoon of the 16th, President Xi Jinping met with John Lee, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, at Yingtai in Zhongnanhai. Lee was in Beijing to report on the current situation in Hong Kong and the work of the SAR government. Xi Jinping pointed out that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee made a strategic plan for the country's economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing the need to unswervingly implement the principles of "one country, two systems," "Hong Kong people governing Hong Kong," and a high degree of autonomy to promote Hong Kong's long-term prosperity and stability. The SAR government should proactively align itself with the national 15th Five-Year Plan, uphold and improve executive-led development, solidly promote high-quality economic development, deeply participate in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and better integrate into and serve the overall development of the country. Li Qiang, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Li Ganjie, Chen Wenqing, Xia Baolong, and others attended the meeting. (CCTV News)

18:45:55

[Oil Price Shock: Economic Concerns Behind Azerbaijan's Current Account Surplus Halved] ⑴ The Central Bank of Azerbaijan stated on Tuesday that the country's current account surplus fell to $3 billion in the first nine months of this year, accounting for 5.4% of GDP, down from $4 billion in the same period last year. ⑵ The Central Bank explicitly stated that the decline in the surplus was mainly driven by the drop in global oil prices. ⑶ By sector, the oil and gas sector surplus fell 3.7% year-on-year to $10.7 billion, while the non-oil and gas sector deficit widened by 7.5% year-on-year to $7.7 billion. ⑷ The oil and gas industry contributes more than half of the country's GDP and about 90% of its export revenue, highlighting the single-sector dependence of its economy. ⑸ In the first nine months of this year, Azerbaijan's total foreign trade volume fell to $30.8 billion year-on-year, with exports falling to $18.2 billion and imports rising slightly to $12.6 billion. ⑹ The Central Bank has lowered its 2026 current account surplus forecast to $1.9 billion, far below its expectation of reaching $3.7 billion by the end of this year. (7) Based on an average oil price of $65 per barrel, the central bank expects the surplus to further decrease to $1.56 billion in 2027 and to $1.23 billion in 2028. (8) It is projected that by 2029, with the commissioning of the Shah Deniz Phase III development project, the largest gas field, leading to stable natural gas production, the surplus is expected to rebound to $1.84 billion.

18:37:06

[The Calm Before the Data Storm: Markets Hold Their Breath Awaiting the Delayed Non-Farm Payrolls "Judgment"] ⑴ The US November non-farm payrolls report, delayed due to the previous government shutdown, will be released Tuesday evening (Beijing time), along with some October labor market data. ⑵ Economists surveyed generally expect the US to add only 45,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly to 4.5%. ⑶ Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the data release, with major US stock index futures falling slightly, indicating that the recent market correction may continue. ⑷ The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen for three consecutive trading days, reflecting renewed concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom. ⑸ In addition to the jobs report, investors are also awaiting the October retail sales data to be released later today, as well as the preliminary November manufacturing and services PMI figures released by S&P Global. ⑹ This long-awaited jobs report, which is expected to show a significant slowdown, will be a key indicator for assessing the health of the US economy and influencing the pace of future Federal Reserve policy.

18:31:50

[Eurozone Debt Awaits Guidance, Weak PMI and US Non-Farm Payrolls Pull Each Other Together] ⑴ The preliminary Eurozone composite PMI released on Tuesday was weaker than expected, indicating that business activity growth will slow by the end of 2025, with a deeper contraction in manufacturing and a weakening expansion in the service sector. ⑵ Despite this, Eurozone bond yields reacted mutedly, with the German 10-year bond yield holding steady at 2.8475%, as market focus shifted to the later-released US non-farm payrolls report. ⑶ Strategists pointed out that although the data was weaker than expected, the market is currently in "wait-and-see mode," awaiting new clues from the US employment data regarding the Fed's policy path. ⑷ Data released on the same day showed that French private sector business growth nearly stalled in December, with continued political uncertainty dragging down the Eurozone's second-largest economy, and its 10-year bond yield slightly declining. ⑸ German private sector growth slowed for the second consecutive month in December, with stagnant new business inflows and declining manufacturing output putting pressure on the economy. (6) Market attention is highly focused on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, as it could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, despite the data's release being delayed due to the government shutdown. (7) Strategists believe that with the Fed's interest rates approaching neutral levels, the threshold for further rate cuts is rising; therefore, the strength of the employment data will have a key impact on interest rate expectations. (8) This week, the market will also see monetary policy meetings from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, with the market widely expecting the ECB to maintain its current interest rates.

18:30:34

[The Gap Between Expectations and Reality: Market Divergence Amid Germany's "Fragile" Economic Recovery] ⑴ The German think tank ZEW stated on Tuesday that Germany's investor confidence index rose to 45.8 points in December, significantly higher than the market expectation of 38.7 points and also higher than November's 38.5 points. ⑵ ZEW Chairman Ashim Wambach pointed out that after three years of economic stagnation, the possibility of economic recovery is increasing, and this positive shift is already reflected in market sentiment. ⑶ He stated that expansionary fiscal policies will provide new growth momentum for the German economy, mainly referring to the government's approval of a substantial increase in public spending in the defense and infrastructure sectors. ⑷ However, in stark contrast to the improved future expectations, the assessment index of the current economic situation deteriorated to -81.0 points, lower than November's -78.7 points. ⑸ Wambach emphasized that the economic recovery process remains fragile, with key risks including ongoing trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and insufficient investment.

18:30:25

[Dual Mandate in Crisis: What Kind of Market Movement Will a Disappointing Non-Farm Payroll Report Trigger?] ⑴ Wells Fargo points out that the latest data will increasingly clarify that the Fed's "full employment" goal, part of its dual mandate, is currently facing risks. ⑵ The head of fixed income at DWS Americas believes that the non-farm payroll data released this time may be "the most important data point next year," and the direction of the labor market will directly determine the direction of interest rates. ⑶ The market generally expects weak employment data; any downside surprise could lead to earlier expectations of the Fed's next rate cut, thereby supporting gold prices and accelerating the sell-off of the dollar. ⑷ Morgan Stanley analysts say that the market has now returned to a state where "good economic news is bad news for the stock market," and a weak employment report may exacerbate expectations of another Fed rate cut in the first quarter of next year, thereby boosting the stock market. ⑸ However, Saxo Bank warns that if the data is overly positive and triggers a repricing of interest rates, rising yields will impact risk assets, especially long-term growth stocks. (6) The head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree tends to believe that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, with the neutral interest rate likely around 3.5%. Strong data could trigger a sell-off in US Treasuries. (7) Goldman Sachs believes that while weak data may temporarily suppress the dollar, given the Fed chairman's indication that he will carefully review the data, overall market volatility may be less than in the past. (8) Allspring Global Investments points out that the new Fed chairman may favor a more accommodative policy stance, and any signs of weakness in the job market could provide the new leadership with grounds for rate cuts.

18:30:08

Inventory pressure and approaching cost line: What logic is the market trading after three consecutive declines in palm oil prices? Details>

18:22:59

[The Delayed "Judgment": How Will the Shrinking Employment Data Impact the Market?] ⑴ The November US non-farm payroll report, delayed due to the government shutdown, will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday evening, along with incomplete October labor market data. ⑵ Economists expect the US to add 45,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly to 4.5%. ⑶ Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the data release, with major stock index futures declining slightly, suggesting a possible continuation of the recent market correction. ⑷ The Nasdaq Composite Index has fallen for three consecutive trading days as concerns about the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom have resurfaced. ⑸ Investors are also awaiting the October retail sales data to be released on the same day, as well as the preliminary November manufacturing and services PMI figures from S&P Global. ⑹ This delayed and expected significantly slower employment report will provide key new clues for assessing the momentum of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's policy path.

18:21:54

The seasonally adjusted trade balance of the eurozone for October

Previous : 186.96 Forecast : 185

美元

欧元金银

Published Value 140

18:20:37

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December

Previous : 25 Forecast : -

Published Value 33.70

18:19:42

[Stock Market Revisions Shift French Grain Exports "Inside" the EU] ⑴ FranceAgriMer's latest forecast for the 2025/26 crop year shows that French soft wheat exports to regions outside the EU are projected to decrease to 7.6 million tons, down from the previous month's forecast of 7.85 million tons. ⑵ Meanwhile, wheat exports to the EU are projected to increase to 7.39 million tons, up from the previous month's forecast of 7.05 million tons, indicating a shift in trade flows. ⑶ Regarding ending stocks, soft wheat stocks are projected to decrease to 2.74 million tons, down from the previous month's forecast of 2.83 million tons. ⑷ Barley ending stocks are projected to decrease to 1.46 million tons, down from the previous month's forecast of 1.7 million tons. ⑸ Corn ending stocks are projected to decrease to 1.86 million tons, down from the previous month's forecast of 1.97 million tons. ⑹ The collective downward revision of major grain stock forecasts may suggest a tighter supply-demand balance than previously expected, especially with increased wheat exports to the EU and decreased exports abroad, potentially reflecting changes in regional demand structure or competitiveness.

18:17:56

[Swedish Outlook: The "German Dependence" Behind the Initial Economic Dawn] ⑴ The Swedish Finance Minister stated that the country's economy is finally showing signs of recovery, but the outlook remains highly uncertain. ⑵ The government's latest forecast raises the 2025 GDP growth rate to 1.6% from the September estimate of 0.9%, indicating greater optimism about recent growth momentum. ⑶ For 2026, the government forecasts GDP growth at 3.0%, slightly lower than the September estimate of 3.1%, but still pointing to a strong expansion outlook. ⑷ Regarding inflation, the government forecasts a CPIF inflation rate of 1.1% in 2026, lower than the September estimate of 1.3%, reflecting easing price pressures. ⑸ However, the Swedish Finance Minister clearly pointed out that weak German economic growth is the biggest problem facing the Swedish economy. ⑹ He emphasized that the Swedish economy is very closely linked to the German economy and German companies, highlighting its heavy reliance on the health of its major trading partners for external growth drivers.

18:13:57

[Trade Surplus Narrows, Trade Gap Widens Between EU and Non-EU Markets] ⑴ Data released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics on Tuesday showed that Italy's global trade surplus in October was €4.156 billion, narrowing from €4.619 billion in the same period last year. ⑵ The narrowing surplus was due to faster import growth than exports; exports increased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3.4%. ⑶ Looking only at trade with EU countries, Italy recorded a trade deficit of €1.31 billion in October, a significant increase from €650 million in the same period last year. ⑷ Specifically, Italy's exports to EU countries increased by only 0.5% year-on-year in October, far lower than the 2.7% growth rate of its imports from the EU. ⑸ The data comparison shows that Italy remains highly competitive in non-EU markets, but its trade performance within the EU is relatively weak, leading to a decrease in the overall trade surplus.

18:13:24

The ZEW Economic Conditions Index for the Eurozone in December

Previous : -27.30 Forecast : -

Published Value -28.50

18:09:26

[Export Resilience: Why Did the Eurozone Trade Surplus Surge?] ⑴ Eurostat data released Tuesday showed that the Eurozone's unadjusted trade surplus in October was €18.4 billion, significantly higher than the €7.1 billion in the same period last year. ⑵ The increased surplus was mainly due to a significant decrease in imports. Imports from outside the Eurozone totaled €239.6 billion in October, a sharp decrease of 3.6% year-on-year. ⑶ Meanwhile, exports to outside the Eurozone totaled €258 billion in October, an increase of 1.0% year-on-year, demonstrating some export resilience. ⑷ Looking at cumulative data, from January to October this year, the Eurozone's trade surplus with outside the Eurozone was €144.6 billion, slightly higher than the €141.4 billion in the same period last year. ⑸ In the first 10 months of this year, total exports to outside the Eurozone increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while total imports increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with import and export growth basically synchronized. ⑹ After seasonal adjustment, the trade surplus with outside the Eurozone in October was €14 billion, narrowing from €18 billion in September. (7) Adjusted data shows that exports to other regions decreased by 4.6% month-on-month in October, while imports decreased by 3.3% month-on-month, indicating that both domestic and external demand contracted month-on-month. (8) The adjusted three-month moving average (August to October) shows that exports increased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, while imports decreased by 2.2% month-on-month, indicating that import demand was weaker than export demand.

18:07:54

[Supply Game: Why Did the Asian Fuel Oil Rebound End Up Being Short-Lived?] ⑴ The Asian high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) market ended its recent brief rebound on Tuesday as spot offers for January delivery softened. ⑵ The spot freight spread for Singapore 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil was assessed at a discount of over $4 per tonne, widening from the previous day due to some more competitive offers. ⑶ Meanwhile, trading in the very low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) market has been relatively quiet recently, with seasonal factors leading to subdued trading activity. ⑷ The entire Asian fuel oil market remains under pressure from ample inventory, with some sellers still attempting to clear their stocks amid lukewarm demand in both marine fuel and feedstock sectors. ⑸ Crack spreads were largely stable from the previous day. Data showed that the VLSFO crack spread remained stable at a premium of approximately $4.40 per barrel, while the 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread rose slightly to a discount of approximately $7.25 per barrel. (6) Industry monitoring agency IIR said on Monday that Kuwait's state-owned Integrated Petroleum Industry Company restarted its 205,000-barrel-per-day crude oil distillation unit at the Al Zour refinery on December 13, nearly a month later than initially expected. (7) On the other hand, geopolitical events continue to disrupt the energy market. Market concerns about potential supply disruptions due to escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela have temporarily outweighed ongoing concerns about oversupply and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. (8) Russian state news agency cited anonymous sources on Monday as saying that Russia is considering extending restrictions on diesel and gasoline exports until February next year. (9) Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA said on Monday that it had suffered a cyberattack, but stated that its operations were unaffected, although four sources said its systems remained paralyzed and oil deliveries were suspended. (10) Traders and analysts pointed out that several shipments of Venezuelan oil had already been shipped to China before the US seized tankers off the coast of South America last week. Combined with ample crude oil inventories and weak demand, this will limit the near-term impact of the incident on the Chinese market.

18:06:00

[Trump: A Chaotic Schedule of Tariffs, Lawsuits, and Ceasefires] ⑴ According to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the U.S. has levied over $200 billion in tariffs since the new tariffs were implemented in early 2025, highlighting that Trump's tariff rhetoric has translated into substantial trade actions. ⑵ He has taken contradictory actions on drug policy, planning to sign an executive order designating fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction" while simultaneously considering ordering the easing of federal restrictions on marijuana. ⑶ On the diplomatic front, he claims to be "closer than ever" to achieving a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, but the Gaza ceasefire agreement he brokered has allegedly been violated by Israel, prompting the White House to issue a stern warning to Netanyahu. ⑷ He has taken aggressive legal action, suing the BBC for defamation and seeking $5 billion in damages for reporting on the "January 6th incident." ⑸ He has shown inconsistency in trade relations, suspending the implementation of a technology agreement reached with the UK during Trump's visit due to dissatisfaction with the progress of trade negotiations. (6) Personnel appointments have encountered setbacks; Hassett, the White House National Economic Council director who was initially considered a leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman, is facing opposition from individuals close to Trump. (7) Trump unilaterally declared the Gaza International Stabilization Force to be "well-established" and "operating in a very powerful manner," while simultaneously defending the White House banquet hall construction project in court on the grounds of "national security." (8) Controversy has arisen again in public statements, attributing the death of murdered director Rob Reiner to his public opposition to the president and making unsubstantiated accusations.

18:03:59

[A Glimmer of Hope: Is Germany's Three-Year Stagnant Economy Embarking on a Fragile Recovery?] ⑴ The German think tank ZEW points out that after three years of economic stagnation, the possibility of economic recovery is increasing, a positive shift clearly reflected in market sentiment. ⑵ ZEW believes that expansionary fiscal policies will provide new growth momentum for the German economy, propelling it towards recovery. ⑶ However, the institution also emphasizes that the current economic recovery process remains fragile and faces multiple uncertainties. ⑷ ZEW predicts that measures to address trade conflicts stemming from Trump's ongoing tariff rhetoric, geopolitical tensions, and insufficient investment are likely to be included in the 2026 reform agenda.

18:01:50

Italy's trade balance with the European Union in October

Previous : -0.42 Forecast : -

Published Value -13.10

18:01:41

Italy's trade balance for October

Previous : 28.52 Forecast : -

Published Value 41.56

18:00:04

The eurozone's unadjusted trade balance for October

Previous : 194 Forecast : -

Published Value 184

18:00:03

Germany's ZEW Economic Conditions Index for December

Previous : -78.70 Forecast : -80

Published Value -81

18:00:02

Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for December

Previous : 38.50 Forecast : 38.70

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 45.80

17:59:23

[The Curse of Layoffs: Why Cost Cuts No Longer "Save" Stock Prices?] ⑴ Goldman Sachs analyst Elsie Peng pointed out in a report released Monday that in the past, layoff announcements aimed at improving productivity or saving costs typically boosted company stock prices significantly. ⑵ However, current trends show that after such announcements, the stock performance of related companies lags behind the broader market by an average of about 2 percentage points. ⑶ Peng believes the core reason for the shift in market reaction is that investors are increasingly skeptical of the reasons given by companies for layoffs. ⑷ Investors worry that the so-called "productivity improvements" may be a cover-up for more negative operational signals such as rising interest expenses or declining profitability. ⑸ Goldman Sachs research found that companies that recently announced layoffs generally had higher growth in capital expenditures, debt, and interest expenses than comparable companies in the industry, while profit growth was lower. ⑹ Particularly noteworthy are companies that explicitly listed restructuring (including automation, AI applications, etc.) as reasons for layoffs, which experienced larger stock price declines, with an average excess return as low as -7%. (7) Although the third-quarter earnings commentary foreshadowed potential further layoffs, largely related to leveraging AI to reduce labor costs, the market did not accept this explanation. (8) Goldman Sachs' equity and credit analysts also pointed out that broader layoffs pose limited risk to the overall economy because corporate balance sheets are generally healthy and profit margins are mostly at high levels. (9) The report reveals that layoff announcements themselves are now seen by the market as a negative signal that may indicate deep-seated operational problems within companies.

17:56:29

[Gold and Silver Divergence: The Logic Behind Precious Metals – Slower Central Bank Gold Purchases and Peak Industrial Demand] ⑴ Morgan Stanley predicted on Tuesday that gold price gains will narrow in 2026 as central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reduce their purchases. ⑵ However, the bank believes that anticipated Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar will provide sustained upward momentum for gold prices. ⑶ The institution expects a gold price target of $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, supported by factors including stronger Chinese retail demand, central bank purchases, and global growth concerns. ⑷ Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects silver to underperform gold in 2026. ⑸ The bank's reasoning is that a decline in solar equipment installations is expected in 2026, causing silver shortages to peak in 2025. ⑹ For other precious metals, the bank forecasts a platinum price target of $1,775 per ounce and a palladium price target of $1,325 per ounce in 2026. (7) This forecast reflects the structural supply-demand imbalance in the platinum group metals market and the changing demand drivers.

17:55:29

Non-farm payrolls may trigger a dollar rebound, but asset risks remain as the US Treasury yields steepen. Details>

17:52:30

[Sown Area Quietly Reshaped, European Agricultural Market Shifts] ⑴ At dawn on December 17th, Beijing time, the French agricultural department released its first forecast for the 2026 planting structure, with the core signal pointing to an overall rebound in winter crop acreage. ⑵ The winter wheat planting area is projected to reach 4.56 million hectares, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. Although still slightly below the five-year average, it continues to expand against the backdrop of weakening prices, reflecting the resilience of planting intentions. ⑶ The winter rapeseed acreage is projected to rise to 1.34 million hectares, a significant increase of 6.4% year-on-year, hitting a three-year high and becoming the crop with the most significant increase in this round of forecasts. ⑷ Behind the expansion of rapeseed planting is the reality that its price is more attractive than that of grains, also showing that European farmers are actively adjusting their income structure. ⑸ The winter barley acreage is projected to be 1.23 million hectares, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, but still 2.2% lower than the average for 2021-2025, indicating a relatively moderate recovery pace. (6) The planted area for Durham wheat is projected at 199,000 hectares, slightly higher than the 30-year low reached this year, indicating that the variety is still in a low-level recovery phase. (7) French sources indicate that the overall growth of winter crops is currently better than the same period last year, consistent with previous assessments of improved crop ratings, providing a foundation for subsequent yields. (8) Among harvested crops, the 2025 corn production forecast has been revised upward to 13.6 million tons, but is still 8.4% lower than the previous high-yield year, indicating limited supply recovery. (9) For sugar beets, the 2025 production forecast has been revised upward to 35.55 million tons, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year, with improved yields offsetting the impact of declining planted area.

17:52:16

[UK December PMI Data Overview] ⑴ The UK December Services PMI preliminary reading was 52.1, higher than the expected 51.6 and the previous reading of 51.3; the Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.4 and the previous reading of 50.2; the Composite PMI preliminary reading was 52.1, higher than the expected 51.6 and the previous reading of 51.2. ⑵ Despite the better-than-expected data, commentary noted that growth momentum was weak, job losses were worryingly widespread, and inflation in both goods and services prices rebounded. ⑶ This makes a rate cut by the Bank of England on Thursday still possible, but its wording on subsequent actions may be more cautious, remaining highly data-dependent. There is a risk of overly accommodative policy, and the market may slightly lower its dovish expectations. ⑷ Key findings showed that output growth accelerated in December, mainly driven by the strongest new business growth in 14 months. (5) Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented that the preliminary December PMI reading brought good news of accelerated economic growth at the end of the year, partly due to the easing of uncertainty following the budget, which boosted business confidence. (6) The PMI data suggests that GDP growth will accelerate to 0.2% in December, but the overall fourth-quarter growth signal is more moderate at 0.1%. (7) Reassuringly, business confidence did not sink as it did after last year's budget. Instead, with some of the uncertainty from the budget easing and signs of improving demand, businesses ended the year on a slightly more optimistic note. New orders are growing at their fastest pace in a year. (8) However, overall growth in output and demand remains weak, and expansion remains heavily reliant on activity in the technology and financial services sectors, while many other economic sectors are experiencing sluggish growth or contraction. (9) The worrying widespread decline in employment remains a concern, and it remains to be seen whether the increase in December orders will persuade more companies to resume hiring, especially as rising labor costs continue to be reported as one of the main concerns for businesses. (10) These higher cost pressures, in turn, are cited as the main reason for the resurgence of inflation in sales prices for goods and services. (11) Therefore, the weak growth shown in the preliminary PMI readings and the worrying employment data suggest that the likelihood of further interest rate cuts at the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting remains high. However, the path of further rate cuts in 2026 will be highly data-dependent, as policymakers are awaiting confirmation that price pressures will substantially ease within the year.

17:51:23

[German Manufacturing Sector Contracts at Fastest Pace in Ten Months in December] ⑴ Preliminary data showed that Germany's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.7 in December from 48.2 in November, below the expected 48.5, marking the sharpest decline in ten months. ⑵ Output contracted again, ending nine consecutive months of growth, while new orders fell at the fastest pace since January, partly due to a sharp decline in export sales. ⑶ Backlogs of work declined for the second consecutive month, reflecting weak demand and limited capacity pressure. Manufacturing employment fell again, although the pace of layoffs slowed slightly compared to November. ⑷ On the price front, manufacturers recorded their first increase in input costs since January 2023, related to rising commodity prices (particularly metals) and longer supplier delivery times. ⑸ Despite the current weak conditions, manufacturers' business confidence improved, with optimism for the coming year rising to a six-month high.

17:50:24

[German Private Sector Activity Slows in December] ⑴ Germany's preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.5 in December, the lowest in four months, below November's 52.4 and market expectations of 52.4. ⑵ Data showed that private sector growth slowed further from its recent high in October due to weak underlying demand, with new business inflows stagnating and employment declining slightly. ⑶ The service sector's expansion slowed to its weakest pace since September (52.6, previous 53.1), while manufacturing conditions deteriorated (47.7, previous 48.2), with production returning to contraction territory, ending nine consecutive months of expansion. ⑷ Despite the overall slowdown, inflationary pressures intensified. Manufacturing firms recorded their first increase in input costs in nearly three years, amid signs of increasing supply chain pressures, as operating costs and prices in the service sector rose rapidly. ⑸ Meanwhile, business expectations for growth plummeted to their lowest level in eight months.

17:50:03

The market is entering a critical window period; a preview of this week's interest rate meetings of the three major central banks. Details>

17:49:59

[Armenia Cuts Key Interest Rate to 6.5%] ⑴ The Central Bank of Armenia cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% at its December meeting, marking the second and final rate cut this year and bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since July 2021. ⑵ Policymakers also lowered deposit and lending rates to 5% and 8%, respectively. This decision was based on overall inflation slowing to 3.1% in November, close to the 3% target, while core inflation rose to 3.8%, with recent pressures seen as supply-driven and demand-neutral. ⑶ Economic activity remained strong, despite continued uncertainty stemming from slowing domestic demand and growth among major trading partners. ⑷ The committee noted two-way risks, encompassing global inflation and fiscal pressures, as well as weak external and domestic demand, including a housing market adjustment. ⑸ Overall, policymakers hinted at a gradual easing path ahead, with markets expecting the policy rate to be close to 6.25% over the next 12 months, while the central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability at the 3% target.

17:49:32

[Eurozone Services PMI Slows to Three-Month Low in December] ⑴ Preliminary data showed that the Eurozone services purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 52.6 in December from 53.6 in November, marking the slowest expansion in three months. ⑵ Services activity has grown for the seventh consecutive month and remains the main driver of overall Eurozone expansion, although the momentum weakened at the end of the year. ⑶ New orders growth slowed due to a sharp decline in overseas business, but companies continued hiring for the third consecutive month, reflecting continued resilience in demand. ⑷ Companies further reduced their backlogs, with the decline in unfilled orders at the fastest pace in three months. ⑸ On the price front, input cost inflation, mainly driven by the services sector, climbed to a nine-month high, while producer price inflation remained moderate, only slightly higher than November levels. ⑹ Business confidence in the services sector weakened significantly, falling to its lowest level since May, as concerns about the outlook (particularly in Germany) dampened sentiment heading into the new year.

17:49:12

[Eurozone Composite PMI Falls Short of Expectations in December] ⑴ The preliminary reading of the Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell to 51.9, the lowest level in three months, below November's 52.8 and market expectations of 52.7. ⑵ Data showed a slowdown in private sector activity, mainly driven by weakening growth momentum in the services sector (52.6, previous 53.6) and further deterioration in manufacturing conditions (49.2, previous 49.6). ⑶ New orders growth slowed, reflecting a worsening decline in overseas demand, despite companies increasing headcount for the third consecutive month. ⑷ On the price front, both input cost inflation and output price pressures strengthened. Meanwhile, overall business confidence weakened as a significant deterioration in services confidence offset the improved outlook for manufacturing. ⑸ Despite the slowdown in December, Eurozone business activity still recorded its first full calendar year expansion since the pandemic.

17:48:49

[Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Hits Eight-Month Low in December] ⑴ The preliminary reading of the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December fell to 49.2, the lowest in eight months, below November's 49.6 and market expectations of 49.9. ⑵ The data shows a deterioration in manufacturing conditions, with the weak performance mainly attributed to a worsening recession in German industry. On the other hand, French industry showed signs of cautious recovery, but the single-month data should not be over-interpreted. ⑶ In the Eurozone, manufacturing output declined slightly, ending nine consecutive months of expansion. New business from overseas also decreased, and the number of employees continued to decline. ⑷ In terms of prices, input costs rose at the fastest pace since August 2024, while ex-factory prices remained largely unchanged. On the other hand, business confidence improved somewhat.

17:48:33

[Italy's November Inflation Rate Revised Down to 1.1%] ⑴ Italy's annual inflation rate slowed to 1.1% in November, revised down from the initial estimate and October's 1.2%, marking the lowest level since October 2024. ⑵ The main driver was a sharp drop in regulated energy prices (down 3.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.5% drop in October), while the increases in unprocessed food (up 1.1%, compared to 1.9% in October), processed food (up 2.1%, compared to 2.5% in October), transport services (up 0.9%, compared to 2.0% in October), and entertainment and personal care services (up 3.0%, compared to 3.3% in October) all slowed. ⑶ Goods inflation also slowed to 0.1% from 0.2%, while services inflation cooled to 2.3% from 2.6%. These effects were partially offset by a narrowing decline in unregulated energy prices (down 4.3%, compared to a 4.9% drop in October). (4) Meanwhile, core inflation slowed to 1.7% from 1.9%, an eight-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2% this month, following a 0.3% decline in October, in line with preliminary estimates. Harmonized consumer prices rose 1.1% year-on-year and fell 0.2% month-on-month.

17:48:14

[UK Services Sector Continues to Expand in December] ⑴ Preliminary data showed that the UK services PMI rose to 52.1 in December from 51.3 in November, exceeding market expectations of 51.6, marking the sector's eighth consecutive month of expansion. ⑵ Business activity accelerated in December, ending a 13-month decline, driven by the largest increase in new orders in 14 months and a rebound in overseas demand. Employment, however, fell for the 15th consecutive month under continued cost pressures. ⑶ Input costs rose at their fastest pace since May, pushing prices up to their highest level since August. Backlogs rose slightly for the first time since February 2023. ⑷ Looking ahead, business confidence for the coming year strengthened to its second-highest level since October 2024, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook from the industry.

17:47:50

[UK Manufacturing Growth Momentum Strengthens in December] ⑴ Preliminary data showed that the UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in December from 50.2 in November, exceeding the expected 50.4 and marking the strongest expansion since September 2024. ⑵ Supported by stronger domestic demand, manufacturing output expanded for the second consecutive month at its fastest pace in 15 months. New orders also rebounded, growing at their fastest pace in 14 months. ⑶ Meanwhile, employment continued to decline due to cost pressures and uncertainty. Input price inflation accelerated to its fastest pace since May, driven by wage growth and rising fuel and technology costs. ⑷ Factory gate prices climbed to their highest level since August. Business optimism improved, and manufacturers' expectations for future output showed signs of a moderate recovery, but concerns about domestic and international competition and high operating costs remained.

17:47:25

[UK Private Sector Growth Accelerates in December] ⑴ The UK's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.1 in December from 51.2 in November, exceeding market expectations of 51.6. ⑵ Data shows that the UK private sector has expanded for the eighth consecutive month, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the previous month.

17:38:56

The yield on UK 5-year government bonds rose to its highest level since December 11, gaining 3 basis points to 3.984% after the release of the UK's preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

17:38:17

3 days until the Bank of Japan's decision: Japanese government bond yields hit 1.95%, when will the window for a breakout in USD/JPY open? Details>

17:35:54

The yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose 2 basis points to 4.524%, the highest level since December 12, after preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data came in stronger than expected.

17:33:53

[PMI Rebound Does Not Equal Strengthening: UK Economy Between "Relief" and "Slow Growth"] ⑴ At dawn on December 17th, Beijing time, the UK's preliminary December CIPS/S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52.1, higher than the expected 51.6 and November's 51.2, indicating a temporary recovery in business activity. ⑵ The manufacturing PMI also rebounded to 51.2, significantly better than the market expectation of 50.4, reaching a 15-month high and becoming the most prominent improvement in this round of data. ⑶ This is also the first comprehensive economic signal from UK businesses after the release of the fiscal budget at the end of November, when market concerns about potential tax increases had significantly suppressed confidence. ⑷ The survey shows that the easing of uncertainty itself was a boosting factor, with new orders growing at their fastest pace since October last year, and overseas new business rebounding for the first time after 13 consecutive months of decline. ⑸ The recovery in demand led to a slight increase in backlogged orders, the first time in nearly three years, reflecting that frictions still exist in the supply-side response to improved demand. (6) However, judging from the overall picture, the economic growth rate implied by the PMI in the fourth quarter was only about 0.1%, and the overall level is still below the long-term average. The recovery is more of a "stopping the decline" than an "acceleration." (7) Structural differentiation remains obvious. Expansion is mainly concentrated in the technology and financial services sectors, while the growth momentum of other industries is weak, and some sectors are still in contraction territory. (8) Cost pressures have resurfaced, with input prices, including labor, rising faster for the second consecutive month. Business charges also rebounded after hitting multi-year lows in November. (9) Employment indicators remain cautious, with companies continuing to cut jobs to offset the pressure from rising labor costs, indicating that the recovery in confidence has not yet translated into hiring decisions. (10) Against the backdrop of coexisting inflationary pressures and weak growth, the Bank of England's policy path still faces a trade-off. Improved data provides room for maneuver, but is insufficient to completely change the cautious tone.

17:31:26

[Borders Beyond National Borders: Carbon Costs Spread Deeper into the Industrial Chain] ⑴ At dawn on December 17th, Beijing time, a draft document from the European Commission revealed that the carbon border adjustment mechanism is planned to extend its coverage to downstream products of steel and aluminum, shifting the policy focus from the "raw material end" to the "end of the value chain." ⑵ The document explicitly states that this move aims to block circumvention channels and prevent foreign companies from bypassing existing carbon border costs through processing transfers; the core objective remains reducing the risk of carbon leakage. ⑶ This means that in the future, when related products enter the EU market, carbon costs will no longer be reflected only in primary metals but will gradually be embedded in more complex industrial manufactured goods. ⑷ Structurally, the policy impact is not limited to trade but will reshape pricing logic; the cost transmission capacity of downstream manufacturers will become a key variable. ⑸ Meanwhile, another draft document shows that the EU plans to establish a new industry support fund, with 25% of the carbon border adjustment mechanism revenue, to support the EU's domestic industrial system. ⑹ This arrangement forms a closed loop in its mechanism design: external products bear higher carbon costs, while internal industries receive some support to buffer the pressure of transformation. (7) For the market, the aluminum and steel-related industrial chains are no longer facing just demand cycle issues, but rather a long-term cost redistribution brought about by rule changes. (8) In this context, companies' competitive advantages will depend more on low-carbon pathways, production efficiency, and the speed of adaptation to policy pace. (9) From a trading psychology perspective, short-term fluctuations may be limited, but medium- to long-term expectations are shifting, and the sensitivity of each link in the industrial chain to "carbon pricing" will continue to rise.

17:30:04

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Manufacturing PMI for December

Previous : 50.20 Forecast : 50.40

Published Value 51.20

17:30:03

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Composite PMI for December

Previous : 51.20 Forecast : 51.60

Published Value 52.10

17:30:02

The preliminary value of the UK's SPGI Services PMI for December

Previous : 51.30 Forecast : 51.60

Published Value 52.10

17:28:52

Morgan Stanley predicts that platinum prices will reach $1,775 per ounce in 2026 and palladium prices will reach $1,325 per ounce in 2026.

17:28:24

[When Inventory Rebound Meets Structural Gap, the Divergence in Base Metals is Accelerating] ⑴ In the early hours of December 17th, Beijing time, several metal supply and demand assessments from international investment banks were released. The core keyword was not "demand collapse," but rather structural divergence and misaligned timing. ⑵ Copper's logic is the most stringent, with an estimated gap of approximately 260,000 tons in 2025, widening to approximately 600,000 tons in 2026. Given limited inventory and capacity flexibility, the market's tolerance for any disturbances has significantly decreased. ⑶ This assessment reinforces the expectation that copper prices will remain "unyielding at high levels." Price fluctuations are more driven by changes in timing than trend reversals, and the market's sensitivity to supply-side news has been significantly amplified. ⑷ Nickel presents a completely different picture, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously. The price center has been pulled back to the cost and efficiency range, with a target level of around $15,500 per ton in 2026. Its trend attributes are weaker than its structural attributes. (5) Zinc's pressure mainly stems from a rebound in visible inventories. With increased exports from some regions and continued growth in mine supply in 2026, prices have room for a moderate decline, with a target range close to $2,900 per ton. (6) Similar to zinc but more stable is lead. Demand lacks explosive variables, and supply has not contracted significantly. The average price in 2026 is anchored at slightly above $2,000 per ton. (7) In a horizontal comparison, copper's contradiction lies in the "not negligible gap," while nickel, zinc, and lead are more characterized by "balance or looseness," which determines the differences in risk appetite among funds for different metals. (8) For the market, this divergence means that market trends are no longer suitable for explanation using a single macroeconomic narrative, but rather revolve around the interplay of inventories, supply elasticity, and expectation management.

17:25:48

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1800.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1799.05/ounce, up 1.26% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1831.9/ounce, up 0.88% on the day.

17:23:14

Morgan Stanley expects zinc prices to decline moderately to $2,900 per tonne by 2026. Nickel prices are projected to rebound to $15,500 per tonne by 2026, with both supply and demand expected to increase in tandem.

17:21:50

Morgan Stanley: It projects a copper supply deficit of 260,000 tons in 2025, which will widen to 600,000 tons in 2026, leaving virtually no room for further supply disruptions.

17:21:32

[UK Employment Collapse, Bank of England Rate Cut Imminent] ⑴ The UK Office for National Statistics announced on Tuesday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to October, a new high since the beginning of 2021. During the same period, private sector wage growth, excluding bonuses, was only 3.9%, the lowest since the end of 2020. ⑵ Revenue and Customs data showed that the number of taxable employees decreased by 38,000 in November compared to the previous month, and the October decline was revised upward from 22,000 to 32,000, confirming the "visible collapse" of the labor market. ⑶ Following Chancellor Reeves' increase in employers' social security contributions in October, companies' willingness to hire plummeted. Coupled with ongoing pre-budget policy speculation, economic momentum has weakened, and Indeed's data shows that the number of job postings in low-wage industries has declined by 9% year-on-year. ⑷ Although public sector wage growth surged to 7.6%, the fastest since records began in 2001, it could not offset the weakness in the private sector, with overall regular wage growth falling to 4.6%, the lowest point since April 2022. (5) The market has almost fully priced in the Bank of England's 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. The November CPI forecast, to be released on Wednesday, has been slightly lowered from 3.6% to 3.5%, still well above the 2% target. Weak employment data has cleared the final hurdle for monetary easing.

17:14:57

[AI Investment Boom Continues to Empower the Economy, Global Growth Expected to Slow to 2.9% Next Year] ⑴ On Tuesday, institutional sources indicated that OECD Secretary-General Coleman stated that the AI investment boom driving global economic growth is expected to continue and bring longer-term benefits. Earlier this month, the organization raised its growth forecasts for several major economies, including the US, noting that technology spending has provided support in the face of trade uncertainty. ⑵ Coleman mentioned that in the medium to long term, the accelerated adoption and application of AI in the economic field will have a significant positive impact on productivity growth. ⑶ However, the OECD expects global economic growth to slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% next year, with trade headwinds potentially intensifying. ⑷ Coleman pointed out that there are currently several downside risks: the impact of tariffs has not yet fully materialized, trade uncertainty persists, and there are a series of other structural pressures. ⑸ From a trend perspective, continued AI investment may partially offset the negative impact of trade headwinds, but the actual impact of tariffs and structural pressures on economic growth needs to be monitored in the future.

17:12:17

Data shows that Italy's final CPI rose 1.1% year-on-year in November, lower than the preliminary reading of 1.2% and the previous month's reading of 1.2%; the harmonized CPI (HICP) rose 1.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the preliminary reading and the previous month's reading of 1.3%. Core inflation slowed to 1.7% year-on-year from 1.9%.

26

Broker Rankings

Under Regulation

ATFX

Regulated by the UK FCA | Full license plate MM | Global business coverage

Overall Rating 88.9

Under Regulation

FxPro

Regulated by the UK FCA | NDD is executed without trader intervention | More than 20 years of history

Overall Rating 88.8

Under Regulation

FXTM

The stock owner's currency pair has a zero spread | "3000 times leverage" | Trade US stocks at zero commission

Overall Rating 88.6

Under Regulation

AvaTrade

More than 18 years | Nine levels of supervision | An established European broker

Overall Rating 88.4

Under Regulation

EBC

The EBC Million Dollar Contest | Regulated by the UK FCA | Open an FCA clearing account

Overall Rating 88.2

Under Regulation

Jufeng Bullion

More than 10 years | License of the Gold and Silver Exchange | New customers receive a bonus

Overall Rating 88.0

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	4338.22	5.61 (0.13%)
XAG	67.126	1.664 (2.54%)
CONC	56.54	0.54 (0.96%)
OILC	60.48	0.76 (1.28%)
USD	98.717	0.277 (0.28%)
EURUSD	1.1707	-0.0014 (-0.12%)
GBPUSD	1.3375	-0.0004 (-0.03%)
USDCNH	7.0341	0.0029 (0.04%)

Home
|
News
|
Live
|
Markets
|
Calendar

Risk Disclosure: Trading stocks, currencies, commodities, futures, bonds, funds or cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. These risks include the loss of part or all of your investment capital, so trading is not suitable for all investors. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, use your own judgment, and consult a qualified advisor. The content on this website is not specifically directed at you, nor have we considered your financial situation or needs. Information provided on this site may not be real-time or accurate. Prices shown on this website may be provided by market makers rather than exchanges. You are solely responsible for any trades or financial decisions made based on the information from this site, and you must not rely on such information. We make no guarantees regarding any information on the website and assume no responsibility for any trading losses caused by the use of this information. Use, storage, copying, display, modification, dissemination or distribution of the data contained on this site is prohibited without prior written permission. All intellectual property rights in the data provided on this site are reserved by the respective data providers and exchanges.

TURBOFIN TECHNOLOGIES PTY LTD Copyright © 2025 FXBus Ltd