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2026-09-17 Thursday

2026-09-22

22:00:23

US August seasonally adjusted pending home sales index year-on-year

Previous : -2.50 Forecast : -

Published Value -4.90

Previous

22:00:00

US August Pending Home Sales Index (MoM)

Previous : -2.30% Forecast : -0.60%

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

22:00:00

US August seasonally adjusted pending home sales index

Previous : 71.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 71.20

Previous

21:55:15

[USDA Weekly Export Sales: Soybean, Corn, and Wheat Data Overview] ⑴ For the week ending September 10, net soybean export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were approximately 1.702 million tons, compared to approximately 2.637 million tons the previous week. ⑵ US soybean export shipments for the week were approximately 623,000 tons, compared to approximately 181,000 tons the previous week. ⑶ For the week ending September 10, net corn export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were approximately 1.027 million tons, compared to approximately 1.929 million tons the previous week; corn export shipments for the week were approximately 1.683 million tons, compared to approximately 775,000 tons the previous week. ⑷ US wheat export sales for the week were approximately 326,000 tons, compared to approximately 194,000 tons the previous week; wheat export shipments for the week were approximately 502,000 tons, compared to approximately 494,000 tons the previous week. (5) For the week of this report, U.S. net export sales of soybean meal for the 2025/26 marketing year were approximately 24,000 tons, compared to approximately 43,000 tons the previous week; net export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were approximately 187,000 tons, compared to approximately 285,000 tons the previous week; soybean meal export shipments for the week were approximately 308,000 tons, compared to approximately 248,000 tons the previous week. (6) For the week of this report, U.S. net export sales of soybean oil for the 2025/26 marketing year were approximately -200 tons, compared to zero the previous week; net export sales for the 2026/27 marketing year were approximately 4,500 tons, compared to zero the previous week; soybean oil export shipments for the week were approximately 2,000 tons, compared to approximately 1,000 tons the previous week. (7) Net sales of U.S. cotton exports for the 2026/27 marketing year were approximately 71,000 bales, compared to approximately 74,000 bales the previous week; net sales of cotton exports for the 2027/28 marketing year were approximately 6,000 bales, compared to approximately 2,000 bales the previous week; and cotton export shipments for the week were approximately 142,000 bales, compared to approximately 178,000 bales the previous week.

21:34:55

[Bank of England Announces New Plan to Slow Down Government Bond Sales, UK Bond Yields Fall] ⑴ Following the Bank of England's announcement of a plan to slow the sale of government bonds, borrowing costs for the UK government fell, and yields on both short-term and long-term bonds declined. ⑵ The 10-year government bond yield fell by about 6 basis points to around 5.23%, retreating from a 19-year high reached earlier this week. ⑶ The 30-year government bond yield fell by about 7 basis points to around 5.79%, after hitting its highest level since 1997 a few days earlier. ⑷ Investors may feel reassured as the Bank of England prefers to sell some of its bonds back to the government rather than dump them on the bond market. ⑸ If ministers agree to this proposal, it will alleviate pressure on bond yields and reduce losses borne by taxpayers. ⑹ The Bank of England is considering selling some UK government bonds back to the UK government and has revealed that it has had "in-depth discussions" on this matter, but no final decision has been made yet. (7) The Bank of England plans to sell approximately £146 billion in government bonds as part of quantitative tightening, with the remaining approximately £222 billion to be reduced passively, i.e., awaiting maturity. (8) The Monetary Policy Committee decided to reduce the quantitative tightening program at an average annual rate of approximately £46 billion by the end of 2034, including approximately £20 billion in sales and approximately £26 billion in maturing government bonds annually. (9) This is lower than the previous rate of approximately £70 billion in quantitative tightening per year, and the slowdown is slightly greater than market expectations, which had previously anticipated a slowdown to approximately £50 billion. (10) This decision was made against the backdrop of criticism that quantitative tightening has increased government borrowing costs and that losses from the Bank of England's bond sales are borne by taxpayers. (11) The Bank of England currently holds approximately £488 billion in government bonds through its asset purchase program, has decided to allocate approximately £120 billion in bonds to support paper money issuance, and will reduce the remaining approximately £368 billion by the end of 2034. 12 The Bank of England also warned that inflation will rise for the remainder of this year and into early 2027.

21:33:02

[Bank of England Governor Bailey: Outlook Unpredictable, Four Rate Hikes Not Discussed] ⑴ Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that when asked whether the market's pricing in nearly four rate hikes over the next year was correct, the outlook was too unpredictable, and officials had not discussed this scenario. ⑵ Bailey said that there was extensive discussion at this meeting, but the prospect of four rate hikes was not discussed. ⑶ He stated that the market must form its own opinion, but the current situation is too unpredictable. ⑷ Bailey has sometimes commented on market interest rate expectations, for example, in April he said that the market pricing in multiple rate hikes was "too hasty," and in July he emphasized that a rate hike later this year was far from certain. ⑸ The Bank of England announced a new plan to reduce its holdings of government bonds earlier on Thursday, completely halting the sale of long-term bonds and suspending active sales for the next six months. ⑹ Bailey stated that the conditions in the UK government bond market, including the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 1998 this week, were not taken into account in this announcement. ⑺ He emphasized that the relevant work was planned before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and was not a reaction to market conditions. (8) Bailey also said that the inflation risk from the war in Iran is still in its early stages and has been quite mild so far, but the longer the conflict continues, the more difficult it will be to make interest rate decisions.

21:26:38

[Chicago Agricultural Commodities Pre-Market: Wheat Leads Decline, Corn and Soybeans Weaken] ⑴ Wheat, corn, and soybean futures are expected to decline ahead of Thursday's resumption of trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. ⑵ Wheat is expected to fall by about 9 to 12 cents, dragged down by technical selling and weaker crude oil prices, but continued concerns about disruptions to Black Sea grain exports limit the decline. ⑶ The actively traded December wheat contract touched resistance above its 20-day moving average in overnight trading, having failed to break through for four consecutive trading days. ⑷ The Ukrainian state railway operator said that Russia damaged a bridge in the Odessa region, significantly limiting Ukraine's ability to transport grain through Danube ports. ⑸ The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net export sales of approximately 326,000 tons of U.S. wheat for the week ending September 10, in line with trade estimates. ⑹ Corn is expected to fall by about 2 to 4 cents, affected by lower crude oil prices and the approaching harvest season in the U.S. Midwest. ⑺ The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net export sales of approximately 1.027 million tons of U.S. corn last week, near the lower end of the trade estimate range. (8) Soybeans are expected to fall by about 1 to 3 cents, following technical selling after three consecutive days of gains. (9) The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that net export sales of U.S. soybeans for the week ending September 10 were approximately 1.702 million tons, in line with trade estimates.

21:00:00

Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves (in US dollars) for the week ending September 11

Previous : 7535 Forecast : -

Published Value 7582

Previous

20:53:02

[Major Central Banks Tighten Amid Energy Shock, Market Pricing May Be Overly Aggressive] ⑴ Amid the energy price shock, major central banks are generally on a tightening path. The Federal Reserve recalibrated its policy to a more restrictive stance on Wednesday, but traders continue to price in a more aggressive rate hike response than its dot plot predicts. ⑵ Economists believe the market is overpricing future rate hikes, partly due to concerns that the oil shock could worsen after the Houthi rebels seize strategic areas along the Red Sea coast. This move is seen as a move by the Iranian-backed militia to harden its stance. ⑶ The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates three times this year to 4.35%, completely reversing last year's rate cuts. The door to further rate hikes seems to be open, and the market widely expects a rate hike at its meeting later this month. ⑷ The Norwegian central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25% in August, noting that inflation has eased and second-quarter economic growth was only about 0.3%, slower than expected. The market is pricing in another 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year. (5) The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday as expected. Three members voted to raise rates, and Governor Bailey warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict might require tighter policy. The market is pricing in at least one more rate hike this year. (6) The Federal Reserve raised rates and hinted at further hikes. Policymakers expect one more rate hike in 2026 and to hold rates steady in 2027, but traders are pricing in more than one this year and about three by the end of 2027. (7) The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates for the second consecutive month to 2.75% and hinted that further tightening might be gradual. Recent growth data was higher than expected, and the market is pricing in at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. (8) The European Central Bank raised rates for the second time this year and released a hawkish tone. The market is pricing in at least one more rate hike before the end of the year and deposit rates above 3% in 2027, but some economists expect the energy shock to drag down growth and help curb inflation next year. (9) The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged this month, but Governor Macklem stated that multiple rate hikes were possible if inflation remained high. Following signs of a cooling labor market, the market is still pricing in one more rate hike before the end of the year. (10) The Swedish central bank has a dovish stance and is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 1.75% at its meeting later this month. Lower-than-expected inflation in August reinforced this view, but the market expects rates to rise later this year. (11) The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1.25% at its meeting this week. Investors are focused on the hawkishness of the post-meeting rhetoric. Economists surveyed expect rates to rise to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, earlier than previously anticipated. Market focus remains on the potential repatriation of funds from the Japanese Government Pension Investment Fund.

20:38:12

[Fed Rate Hike Highlights Warsh's Hawkish Stance; Bond Market Awaits Bank of Japan Decision] ⑴ US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds rebounded after yields held above their post-Fed rate hike highs. The 2-year US Treasury yield briefly touched around 4.74% on Wednesday after the Fed's decision. ⑵ The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote, in line with expectations. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates again to 1.25% at its meeting on Friday. ⑶ Fed Chairman Warsh stated at a press conference that given the strengthening economy and improving labor market, it is difficult to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive, thus "removing a dose of easing." He also noted that inflation has been above target for more than five years, and the main focus is on price stability. ⑷ Warsh emphasized that monetary policy discipline, rather than a single decision, is key, and it is essential to be confident that underlying inflation is moving clearly and quickly toward the target. ⑸ Warsh listed three reasons for the rise in interest rates since July: a strengthening economy, increased competition for capital, and geopolitical factors, but did not mention the mountain of debt faced by developed economies with higher spending, which has pushed up term premiums. (6) The latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows that net foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities and bonds fell by approximately $3.6 billion in July, the first decline since December 2025. (7) Reports indicate that foreign holdings of U.S. bonds fell to their lowest level since 2008 in July, a significant drop from the peak in November 2013. However, some economists believe this is essentially "supplier financing," with dollars earned from trade surpluses flowing back into U.S. Treasury bonds. (8) U.S. Treasury yields fell by approximately 3 to 4 basis points on the day, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 5.01% and 4.97%, and the 2-year yield fluctuating between approximately 4.73% and 4.68%. (9) Following the Bank of England's decision, British gilts rose, with futures rising by more than 0.5 points, while German government bond futures fell by less than 10 ticks. (10) Stock index futures rose by about 1%, with the Nasdaq leading the gains. The VIX index fell by about 2 points to around 16. The US dollar index was basically flat at 100.23. The yen strengthened ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision. WTI and Brent crude oil fell by about 2% and 2.5%, respectively. (11) Strategically, we maintain a neutral bias, looking for opportunities to sell strong assets, especially at the long end. The 10-year yield is expected to fluctuate between 4.70% and 4.80%. (12) Data released on the day includes initial jobless claims, the September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, August residential construction, and August pending home sales. The Treasury will also announce a multi-maturity bond issuance plan and auction short-term bonds and reopen 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).

20:36:49

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index for September

Previous : 27.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 27.70

Previous

20:36:02

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Prices Index for September

Previous : 17.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 31.30

Previous

20:35:12

[US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 196,000, Lower Than Expected] ⑴ For the week ending September 12, initial jobless claims in the US were 196,000, compared to an expected 208,000 and a previous reading of 206,000. ⑵ The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 203,250, compared to a previous reading of 206,000. ⑶ Continuing jobless claims were 1.73 million, compared to an expected 1.78 million, with the previous reading revised down from 1.774 million to 1.769 million. ⑷ The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims was 1.761 million, compared to a previous reading of 1.778 million. ⑸ The insured unemployment rate was 1.1%, compared to a previous reading of 1.2%. ⑹ Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 196,000, significantly lower than the expected 208,000. The four-week moving average also declined, indicating that the improvement was not solely due to fluctuations in a single reporting week. (7) Continuing jobless claims fell by 39,000 to 1.73 million, also better than expected. Furthermore, the previous week's figure was revised down from 1.774 million to 1.769 million. Combined, these figures indicate reduced layoffs and improved ability for unemployed workers to find new jobs. (8) Unadjusted initial jobless claims fell by 13.9%, compared to a seasonally expected decline of 9.3%. Unadjusted continuing jobless claims fell by 5.6%, compared to an expected decline of 3.5%. (9) Initial jobless claims below 200,000 indicate that layoffs remain low; the decline in continuing jobless claims suggests that finding another job is easier. (10) For the Federal Reserve, this report supports the view that the labor market remains resilient. This report alone may reduce the urgency for further rate cuts or provide support for tightening policy given that inflation remains high.

20:30:11

The Philadelphia Fed Capital Expenditure Index for September

Previous : 48.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 37.10

Previous

20:30:11

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Employment Index for September

Previous : 27.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 11.80

Previous

20:30:11

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing New Orders Index for September

Previous : 30.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 29.20

Previous

20:30:11

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Prices Paid Index for September

Previous : 40.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 48.60

Previous

20:30:11

U.S. Philadelphia Fed's 6-month manufacturing business conditions forecast for September

Previous : 73.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 52.90

Previous

20:30:10

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September

Previous : 47.40 Forecast : 30.50

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 37.80

Previous

20:30:00

Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 12 (in thousands)

Previous : 20.60 Forecast : 20.80

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 19.60

Previous

20:30:00

Canadian investors made net purchases of foreign securities in July (CAD 100 million).

Previous : 354.30 Forecast : -

Published Value -306.30

Previous

20:30:00

Foreign investors made net purchases of Canadian securities in July (CAD 100 million).

Previous : 408.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 206.50

Previous

20:30:00

Canada's August Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY

Previous : 12.40% Forecast : -

Published Value 13.50%

Previous

20:30:00

US Housing Starts in August (Annualized Rate, in Thousands)

Previous : 123.90 Forecast : 130.90

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 127.50

Previous

20:30:00

US August Housing Starts Annualized Monthly Rate

Previous : -12.40% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.60%

Previous

20:30:00

Canada's August raw material price index year-on-year rate

Previous : 18.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 22.80%

Previous

20:30:00

Four-week moving average of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending September 12 (in thousands)

Previous : 20.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 20.33

Previous

20:30:00

Canada's August raw material price index month-on-month rate

Previous : -2.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.10%

Previous

20:30:00

Canada's August Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month

Previous : 0.60% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.30%

Previous

20:30:00

US Building Permits (August) (Preliminary)

Previous : 4.30% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.70%

Previous

20:30:00

U.S. continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 5 (in thousands)

Previous : 177.40 Forecast : 178

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 173

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