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2026-07-15 Wednesday

2026-07-19

20:04:12

[US Airstrikes on Strait of Hormuz Spark Soaring Geopolitical Premiums, Potentially Adding Fuel to Oil Price Surge Amid Tight Market Balance] ⑴ The US Central Command announced on Wednesday an airstrike on Grand Tunb Island in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian defense and missile facilities. The operation lasted approximately 90 minutes, and the command stated that this action further weakened Iran's ability to attack merchant ships in the strait. ⑵ Iran, in turn, accused the US of attacking its army barracks, resulting in the deaths of at least seven soldiers and injuries to over 260 others. Iran declared it would respond decisively to the US aggression, while Revolutionary Guard officials threatened that Middle Eastern energy exports would either be open to everyone or completely cut off. ⑶ The US had previously imposed a naval blockade in April, which was lifted last month following a temporary agreement. However, with escalating tensions surrounding the strait and stalled negotiations, the US reimposed the blockade this week and launched multiple rounds of airstrikes in the past few days, even resuming attacks during the day—a rare occurrence—indicating a significant acceleration in the pace of the attacks. (4) The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade. Since the start of the conflict in late February, Iran has effectively cut off the waterway, causing oil and fertilizer prices to soar. Brent crude oil rose above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, up more than 15% from before the conflict. (5) Analysts at the International Monetary Fund warn that the spare capacity and inventory buffers that previously supported low oil prices have been largely exhausted. With the renewed escalation of tensions in the Strait, the global energy market will have to cope with subsequent shocks from a weaker supply base. While regional mediators are still trying to push the US and Iran back to negotiations, market sentiment in the short term is clearly more driven by geopolitical risks.

20:02:13

Brazil's May service sector growth rate - private non-financial sector

Previous : 1.20% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value -0.40%

Previous

20:02:12

Brazil's May service sector year-on-year growth rate - private non-financial sector

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : 0.90%

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

20:00:13

[Indonesia's B50 Biodiesel Mandatory Order Reshapes Global Palm Oil Trade Flows; Malaysia Expected to Absorb Spillover Demand] ⑴ Indonesia officially implemented its B50 biodiesel mandatory order on July 1st, requiring 50% palm oil-based biodiesel to be blended into diesel fuel, a further upgrade from the previous B40 standard. This is expected to consume an additional 3 million tons of palm oil annually. ⑵ The Malaysian Palm Oil Council points out that this policy will push Indonesia's total domestic palm oil consumption to approximately 26 million tons, equivalent to more than half of its annual production, while the export share will be reduced from approximately 68% in 2019 to approximately 48%. ⑶ This structural shift is already reflected in global trade data. Palm oil's share of global edible oil trade has decreased from approximately 56% in 2019 to approximately 49% in 2025. As the world's second-largest producer, Malaysia is expected to be a major beneficiary for importers seeking alternative supplies. ⑷ However, the actual extent of the benefit depends on multiple factors, including the supply and price trends of competing vegetable oils, particularly soybean oil, and the suppression of price elasticity by inventory levels in major importing countries. (5) The agency expects crude palm oil prices to trade between 4,300 and 4,700 ringgit per ton in the second half of 2026, supported by tight supply in Indonesia and rising El Niño risks. However, high inventory levels in the Chinese and Indian markets and the weakening economics of biodiesel (gas diesel prices are lower than palm oil prices) may limit upside potential.

19:22:11

[Oil Prices Rise for Third Consecutive Day, Nearing Four-Week High; Straits Shipping Nearly Halted; Trump Threatens to Expand Strike Scope] ⑴ International oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, both nearing their strongest levels in about four weeks, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% in the first two days of the week. ⑵ Tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate. Early Wednesday morning, the US military launched additional strikes on Iranian military assets, aimed at weakening Iran's ability to threaten merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington reinstated its naval blockade against Iranian vessels on Tuesday evening. ⑶ In a media interview, Trump warned that if Iran does not return to diplomatic negotiations, he may expand strikes to infrastructure such as power grids and major bridges within the next seven days, but explicitly stated that oil and energy facilities are not among the immediate targets. ⑷ The previously proposed 20% toll for transit cargo was shelved due to strong opposition from Gulf allies. The White House is now seeking direct financial commitments from regional partners to fill the expected revenue gap. (5) The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Shipping activity is currently almost at a standstill. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks into Saudi Arabia, the most serious attack since the ceasefire in 2022. (6) API data shows that US crude oil inventories fell by only about 600,000 barrels last week, far below the market expectation of a 2.7 million barrel decrease. However, geopolitical risk premiums continue to dominate short-term pricing logic. With the ceasefire agreement broken and the prospects for a diplomatic solution dimmed, the market continues to price in further deterioration of the situation.

19:20:11

[US Treasury yields hover at high levels, PPI takes over as inflation test, Warsh's hawkish remarks suppress CPI gains] ⑴ US Treasury yields remained anchored at recent highs after Tuesday's weaker-than-expected CPI data, with long-term yields particularly strong. Market focus shifts to Wednesday's upcoming June PPI report, expected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 6.2%, and core PPI around 5.2%. ⑵ The price difference between producers and consumers remains unusually wide, meaning that upstream cost pressures have not yet been fully transmitted to the end consumer, and core PCE faces the risk of further upward movement. ⑶ Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh released a clearly hawkish signal during his congressional testimony, emphasizing that improvements in a single month's inflation data are insufficient to change the overall assessment, and policymakers have "zero tolerance" for persistently high inflation. ⑷ Warsh's remarks echoed previous views by Governor Waller, who stated that several consecutive months of lower-than-expected readings are needed to confirm that inflation is moving in the right direction. ⑸ Current inflation faces four overlapping pressures: the inertia of core inflation before the Iranian conflict, the impact of import tariffs, disturbances in the energy and commodity markets, and increased demand brought about by the AI investment cycle. (6) Diesel prices have surged to over $5 per gallon. The Russian export ban, coupled with the escalating US-Iran military conflict, has led to a continuous rise in transportation and production costs. The transmission of PPI to CPI is only a matter of time. (7) In terms of trading, short-term operations are biased towards range-bound trading. The reference range for the two-year yield is 4.14% to 4.30%, and for the ten-year yield, it is 4.52% to 4.68%. Wednesday will also see the release of the New York Fed's manufacturing survey, the Beige Book, and speeches from several Fed officials.

19:14:11

[Standard Chartered Strategist Warns of Structural High Inflation Dilemma: Central Bank Policy Buffer Thinning, Supply Shocks Added to the Challenge] ⑴ A Standard Chartered chief strategist points out that global central banks need to acknowledge the current environment of structural high inflation, where the operational space and flexibility of monetary policymakers have significantly narrowed compared to the past. ⑵ Against this backdrop, central banks' ability to buffer against various supply shocks has been greatly weakened. Once multiple external disturbances overlap, policy maneuverability will be further compressed. ⑶ He cites an example: if global inflation is only at a low level of 1%, the impact of weather shocks such as El Niño might be easily absorbed; however, when countries are generally struggling to keep inflation below 3%, the combined effect of supply shocks in the oil and food sectors will significantly amplify upward pressure on prices. ⑷ This poses a deep challenge for central banks—interest rate hikes cannot increase the circulation supply of wheat, nor can they alleviate the substantial disruption of agricultural product supply caused by weather factors; traditional monetary policy tools have limited effectiveness in the face of supply-side shocks. (5) Structural high inflation means that central banks must make a more difficult trade-off between curbing demand and tolerating supply-side pressures, and the uncertainty of future policy paths will increase significantly.

19:06:12

[Eurozone bond yields rebounded along with oil prices; two Middle Eastern energy choke points face blockade risk; ECB rate hike expectations rise again] ⑴ Eurozone bond yields rose slightly on Wednesday, mainly driven by rising oil prices, after the market experienced sharp fluctuations the previous day due to escalating Middle East conflict and US inflation data. ⑵ The yield on Germany's two-year bond, most sensitive to central bank interest rate expectations, rose about 3.5 basis points to 2.756% on the day. On Tuesday, the bond had surged 8 basis points to a two-year high before giving back gains due to lower-than-expected US CPI. ⑶ With ongoing fighting between the US and Iran, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the US has reinstated a maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has threatened to close other export routes or use the Houthi rebels in Yemen to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, putting two of the world's most critical energy choke points at risk of simultaneous blockade. ⑷ Brent crude oil rose about 1% on Wednesday to $85.60 per barrel, with the continued rise in energy prices gradually being transmitted to bond market pricing. (5) Money market pricing for further ECB rate hikes this year has risen to approximately 43 basis points, up from 30 basis points a week ago, but down from Tuesday's peak of 48 basis points. (6) ING analysts point out that ECB interest rate pricing will be primarily driven by oil and gas prices. While US inflation is already showing signs of decline, European inflation may not have yet peaked. If energy prices continue to rise, the divergence in policy paths between the two will widen further.

19:02:18

The MBA Mortgage Purchase Index for the week ending July 6

Previous : 169.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 157.20

Previous

19:02:16

The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week ending July 6th week-over-week change

Previous : -2.20% Forecast : -

Published Value -2.70%

Previous

19:02:15

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending July 6

Previous : 794.40 Forecast : -

Published Value 821.90

Previous

19:02:13

US MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending July 6

Previous : 6.58% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.65%

Previous

19:02:12

US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index for the Week Ending July 6

Previous : 266.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 259.10

Previous

18:46:11

[Escalating Attacks on Ships in the Sea of Azov Trigger Wheat Surge, US Corn and Soybeans Suffer from Heatwave, Global Food Supply Chain Faces Another Test] ⑴ Chicago wheat futures surged over 3% on Wednesday, while European wheat hit a one-year high, primarily due to the escalating attacks on ships in the Sea of Azov, a key Russian wheat export route. ⑵ German traders noted that market concerns about increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian shipping vessels could reduce Russian wheat export capacity, prompting demand to shift towards EU supplies; benchmark European wheat futures rose over 5% intraday. ⑶ The Sea of Azov carries about a quarter of Russia's grain exports, and the market is also worried about potential attacks on Ukrainian grain ports, which were reportedly attacked on Wednesday. ⑷ Sources revealed that several grain ships were attacked and caught fire in the Sea of Azov between July 13th and 14th, drastically deteriorating the security situation along the Black Sea grain export route. ⑸ Corn and soybeans followed the rally, recovering some of the previous day's losses. The USDA weekly report showed a slight improvement in their condition ratings, but the heatwave continues to exert pressure, with highs expected to reach 35 to 38 degrees Celsius this week. (6) If the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine over shipping in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea continues to escalate, global wheat trade flows will face a major restructuring, and the risk of price volatility will remain high.

18:18:11

[JPMorgan Chase: AI Investment Logic Should Not Be Limited to Tech Giants; Semiconductors and Infrastructure Sectors Take Over, Bank Stocks Regain Favor] ⑴ JPMorgan Chase Private Bank strategists point out that investors should not limit the AI narrative to tech giants, but should look at the entire industry chain. The real focus should be on capital-intensive and irreplaceable assets such as semiconductors, infrastructure, utilities, and industries. ⑵ The institution believes that the strong performance of tech stocks does not conflict with earnings growth in a broader market. Ten out of eleven sectors in the S&P 500 are expected to achieve profit growth this earnings quarter, indicating a broad earnings base. ⑶ The JPMorgan Chase team expects the S&P 500 to achieve a total return of nearly 10% over the next year, while large-cap European stocks are also expected to record mid-single-digit returns. ⑷ Strategists particularly emphasize that bank stocks are a worthwhile area to watch in the European market, benefiting from improved fundamentals, higher dividends, and increased share buybacks. ⑸ Overall, the AI investment logic is extending from chips and models to energy, computing infrastructure, and related industrial sectors. Utilities and grid upgrades will also continue to benefit. ⑹ In the coming quarters, the market focus may gradually shift from AI hardware spending to the verification of application implementation and infrastructure investment returns, and industry rotation opportunities are worth noting.

18:16:11

[Mexican Crude Oil Makes its First Voyage to Japan, East Asian Energy Supply Chain Quietly Reconstructed Amid Middle East Supply Disruptions] ⑴ A tanker carrying Mexican crude oil is expected to arrive in Japan as early as Friday, marking the first time Mexican crude oil has entered the Japanese market since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict at the end of February. ⑵ The tanker departed from the Gulf of Mexico, rounded the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa, and will stop at the Yokkaichi and Chiba refineries, providing Cosmo Oil with an alternative source of crude oil. ⑶ In April of this year, the leaders of Japan and Mexico reached a consensus to strengthen cooperation in the energy sector, given the disruption of global oil and gas supplies caused by the Middle East situation. This arrival is the first substantial achievement. ⑷ Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated that this move opens up a strategic supply channel for Japan outside the Middle East, helping to diversify geopolitical risks and enhance the resilience of energy imports. ⑸ Although the route around the Cape of Good Hope extends transportation time and costs, it avoids the security risks of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea region, becoming a reliable route for East Asian buyers to obtain crude oil from the Western Hemisphere. (6) The regular introduction of Mexican crude oil may prompt Japan to adjust its long-term procurement structure, and other Asia-Pacific countries may follow suit. The global crude oil trade is being reshaped at an accelerated pace due to geopolitical conflicts.

18:14:12

Eurozone reserve assets totaled in June (in billions of euros)

Previous : 18728.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 17554.50

Previous

18:04:11

[Colorado River Water Crisis: Arizona Farmers Face Land Acquisition by Developers and Solar Panels; Water War Between Cities and Agriculture Imminent] ⑴ The Colorado River basin is experiencing a prolonged drought, compounded by record-low snowfall and high temperatures this year, putting pressure on the water supply for approximately 40 million residents and millions of acres of farmland. Water disputes between communities and industries within the basin are escalating rapidly. ⑵ In Pinal County, Arizona, farmers have been forced to leave more than half of their land fallow due to the drying up of river water. Some farmers are paying high annual water bills but still have no water available. Developers and solar panel companies are actively acquiring agricultural land, significantly increasing pressure for land use conversion. ⑶ Scottsdale, a suburb of Phoenix, relies on the Colorado River for about 70% of its water supply. Local candidates advocate diverting water resources from agriculture to meet urban expansion needs, while farmers are calling for a halt to residential development to ensure food security. ⑷ Federal officials are considering adopting water conservation proposals from three downstream states, planning to reduce water consumption by about 21% annually by 2028. This move exacerbates the risk of legal disputes between downstream and four upstream states over the allocation of limited flow. (5) In Colorado, ranchers have seen hay production plummet to a quarter of normal levels due to the premature depletion of irrigation water from snowmelt. Local ranchers emphasize that agriculture is not the root cause of the problem but rather a beneficiary, refuting external accusations. (6) In a small town in Utah, stream flow has dropped to only 6% of normal levels. Groundwater and backup water sources can only sustain the town for a few months to six months. If alternative solutions or rainfall do not arrive in time, external water supply will be forced to begin, and the reality of water scarcity is becoming a daily occurrence, moving beyond mere prediction.

18:02:12

[Russian Refinery Attacked, Production Halted, Crude Oil Processing Capacity Significantly Damaged, Adding Further Uncertainty to Energy Supply Chain] ⑴ The Salavat petrochemical plant in Russia's Ural region suspended operations on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack. The local governor confirmed the attack but stated that normal production is expected to resume within days. ⑵ Two industry sources revealed that both of the plant's main refining units were damaged and shut down, including the CDU-6 crude oil distillation unit with a daily processing capacity of approximately 17,140 tons and the CDU-4 unit with a daily processing capacity of approximately 11,430 tons. ⑶ In addition, some secondary processing units and other equipment were also damaged to varying degrees. Repair work may take weeks or even months, and the actual resumption of production may be longer than officially expected. ⑷ The Salavat petrochemical plant is one of Russia's largest petrochemical enterprises. Its prolonged shutdown will directly affect domestic refined oil supply and may reduce export share, tightening the regional energy balance. ⑸ This attack exacerbated geopolitical risk premiums, providing additional support to international oil prices after the news broke, and reigniting market concerns about the vulnerability of Russia's energy infrastructure. (6) Going forward, attention should be paid to whether other Russian refineries face similar threats, and whether Ukraine's drone strike strategy will be further escalated, which will determine the duration and scope of the energy supply disruption.

17:52:11

[India's textile industry faces a double whammy of US tariffs and Middle East conflict, with cost fluctuations compounded by cautious orders] ⑴ After months of fluctuating raw material costs, Indian textile and apparel exporters are facing new uncertainties. The outcome of US tariff negotiations remains unclear, while the resumption of conflict in the Middle East could push up freight costs and disrupt supply chains. ⑵ Cotton prices previously surged due to El Niño concerns, but the market gradually stabilized after the government removed import tariffs on long-staple cotton and increased imports. Some exporters locked in yarn prices and production capacity in advance to cope with fluctuations. ⑶ By mid-May, benchmark Gujarat cotton prices had risen by about 10% month-on-month, while spot prices rebounded again on July 14. International ICE cotton futures rose by more than 6% that week, reigniting concerns about global supply. ⑷ Analysis indicates that the impact of rising cotton prices on the industry chain is clearly differentiated. Cotton accounts for nearly 70% of the raw materials in the home textile and textile sector, while about 70% of the garment manufacturing sector relies on polyester, which is more directly affected by oil price fluctuations. (5) The United States is India's largest export market for textiles and apparel, with annual shipments of approximately US$10.5 billion. However, industry estimates suggest that only about 8%-10% of the industry's revenue relies on the US market, indicating relatively limited direct exposure. Trade agreements between India and the UK, and India and the EU, have begun to generate increased inquiries. (6) Uncertainty regarding tariff prospects has led overseas buyers to favor small-batch, high-frequency orders, postponing long-term contracts. Although exporters are using discounts to offset some tariff costs, overall demand has not yet been significantly damaged, and the long-term outlook remains optimistic. It is expected that the benefits of trade agreements will gradually materialize in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2027.

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Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

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40.10

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0.395

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3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

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3.22

(3.80%)

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0.039

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-0.0004

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