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2026-02-18 Wednesday

2026-02-22

20:14:39

[Global Government Bond Yields Diverge: US-German Yield Spread Exceeds 130 Basis Points, UK and Australia Lead High-Yield Group] ⑴ Data released on Tuesday showed that yields on major global government bonds continued to diverge. For example, the 10-year yield on German government bonds was 2.750%, low among major economies, only higher than Denmark (2.611%), Sweden (2.656%), and Japan (2.140%). ⑵ In the high-yield group, the yield on Australian 10-year government bonds reached 4.732%, 198.3 basis points higher than Germany; the UK 10-year yield was 4.374%, a spread of 162.4 basis points; the US 10-year yield was 4.075%, 132.5 basis points lower than Germany. ⑶ Observing the 2-year yield, the spread was even more pronounced. The yield on German 2-year government bonds was 2.063%, while the yield on Australian 2-year bonds was as high as 4.205%, a spread of 214.3 basis points. The UK's 2-year yield was 3.574%, 151.1 basis points higher than Germany's; the US's 2-year yield was 3.460%, with a spread of 139.7 basis points. (4) Using the US as a benchmark, its 2-year yield of 3.460% was lower than Australia's 4.205%, but significantly higher than economies such as Japan (1.242%) and Germany (2.063%). For the 10-year maturity, the US yield of 4.075% was also lower than Australia and the UK, but still maintained a significant interest rate advantage relative to Germany, France, and Japan. The UK became the only major economy to maintain a positive interest rate spread against the US on both the 2-year and 10-year maturities.

20:09:42

[The AI Productivity Myth Faces Historical Judgment: The Greenspan Rate Hike of the 1990s] ⑴ After a nearly 30-basis-point plunge over nine trading days, US Treasury yields rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The market had priced in almost three rate cuts by 2026, an extreme expectation partly stemming from a new narrative: artificial intelligence will be a "disruptor" of the labor market, while simultaneously ushering in a wave of prosperity. ⑵ In her speech on Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated the technological productivity miracle of the Greenspan era. She suggested that just as the information technology revolution of the 1990s allowed the Fed to remain patient and usher in prosperity, the current AI revolution may also be worth waiting for. However, historical records offer a different answer. ⑶ Harvard professor and former chairman of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, Furman, wrote in the Financial Times that while Greenspan did recognize accelerating productivity earlier than most, the legend here is distorted. Just one month after his speech, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and inflation began to rise steadily. Furman warned that productivity gains were pushing up the neutral interest rate, and central banks must maintain higher nominal interest rates to prevent inflation. (4) Turning our attention to the present, Furman argues that there is a key difference between the current situation and the 1990s: US productivity growth over the past year was only 1.9%, far below the 3.9% growth before Greenspan's speech in 1999. More dangerously, excessively high expectations for AI have driven up demand and asset prices, while inflation remains close to 3%. If the optimistic scenario materializes, the real lesson Warsh learned from the 1990s shouldn't be that the Fed should remain on hold, but rather that it may need to raise interest rates again. Tactically, it is recommended to establish short positions around the 10-year yield of 4.09% and the 2-year yield of 3.41%.

20:02:33

The U.S. MBA mortgage application Activity index for the week ending February 13 week-on-week

Previous : -0.30% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

20:01:59

The MBA Mortgage application Activity index in the United States for the week ending February 13

Previous : 329.90 Forecast : -

Published Value 339

Previous

20:01:54

The MBA Mortgage Refinancing Activity Index for the week ending February 13 in the United States

Previous : 1284.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 1375.90

Previous

20:01:47

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate of the US MBA for the week ending February 13

Previous : 6.21% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.17%

Previous

20:01:42

The MBA Mortgage purchase Index for the week ending February 13 in the United States

Previous : 161.50 Forecast : -

Published Value 157.10

Previous

19:16:39

[LME Copper Buying Emerges on Dips, Continued Inventory Increases Limit Rebound] ⑴ Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange rose about 1% on Wednesday, rebounding from a more than one-week low hit in the previous trading day. Trading was thin due to the Chinese New Year holiday, and investors bought on dips, providing support for prices. As of press time, LME three-month copper was up 1.1% at $12,755.50 per tonne. ⑵ Analysts pointed out that the market typically doesn't have a large amount of capital left during holidays, leading to increased volatility and triggering buying on dips. However, copper prices have fallen by about 12% since hitting a record high of $14,527.50 on January 29, mainly due to continued inventory increases. ⑶ Copper inventories in LME registered warehouses climbed for the 12th consecutive day to 224,600 tons, the highest level in 11 months. The new inventories mainly flowed into New Orleans and Kaohsiung, and US warehouses now account for nearly 18% of total LME copper inventories. Meanwhile, the discount of spot copper to three-month copper reached $100, indicating that supply is not tight in the near term. (4) In other metals, zinc rose slightly by 0.1%, aluminum rose by 0.7% and is poised to end a four-day losing streak, lead rose by 0.2%, nickel rose by 0.5%, and tin fell by 0.5%. Goldman Sachs expects that if strategic reserve purchases by the US and potential Chinese reduce commercial inventories, its fourth-quarter copper price forecast of $11,200 has room to rise.

19:07:12

[US Farmers "Bet" on Corn: Best Chance of Breaking Even, Planting Area Expected to Remain High in 2026] ⑴ Despite last year's record corn harvest depressing prices, US farmers expect only a slight reduction in corn planting area in 2026. Facing a fourth consecutive year of meager profits or even losses, farmers believe corn is the most likely option to break even, while soybeans are considered riskier due to increased competition from Brazil and volatile trade relations with China. ⑵ Analyst surveys show that US corn planting area in 2026 is projected at 94.9 million acres, down about 4% from last year's 89-year high, but still the second highest level in 13 years. Soybean planting area is projected at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average, higher than the six-year low of 81 million acres in 2025. ⑶ Corn's appeal lies in strong demand support. Record export sales progress and robust demand from ethanol producers provide a floor for prices. CBOT December corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering around $4.60 per bushel, nearing farmers' break-even point. The soybean market, however, is more like "political football," facing uncertainty due to US-China relations. (4) On the cost side, farmers are doing everything they can to cut expenses: halting new machinery purchases, reducing fertilizer use, postponing equipment maintenance, and focusing most of their investment on corn. Some farmers in North Dakota plan to expand their corn acreage by 15% this spring. Despite the pressure, the USDA will release its annual Outlook Forum this week, providing the market with clearer guidance on planting intentions.

19:05:51

South Africa's annual rate of retail sales in December

Previous : 3.50% Forecast : 3.10%

Published Value 2.60%

Previous

18:45:40

[Japanese Government Bond Futures Rally Then Fall Back; Demand for Ultra-Long-Term Bonds Supported by Accounting Standard Changes] ⑴ On Wednesday, Japanese government bond futures surged in the morning session, reaching an intraday high of 132.96, but subsequently gave back gains, ultimately closing lower. Market participants attributed the morning's rise to technical factors, while the afternoon's decline was related to the Bank of Japan's routine bond-buying operation, which showed market participants tended to sell long-term bonds. ⑵ The central bank's bond-buying results showed strong selling pressure on long-term government bonds, putting pressure on 5- to 10-year bonds. Futures weakened after the afternoon session resumed, briefly dipping to 132.38. The market is preparing for tomorrow's 20-year government bond auction, with some public accounts already placing buy orders during the session. ⑶ In contrast to the weakness in medium- and long-term bonds, 24- to 27-year non-newly issued ultra-long-term bonds performed strongly. The market attributed this to a draft accounting standard released yesterday by the Japan Institute of Certified Public Accountants. If the draft is finalized, life insurance companies will have less need to write down their bond holdings when the price falls to half of the purchase price. (4) This potential change in accounting standards could reduce selling pressure on insurance institutions during market downturns, thus providing structural support for ultra-long-term bonds. Analysts believe that, as a result, tomorrow's 20-year Treasury bond auction may proceed more smoothly than some expectations.

18:05:25

Monthly rate of existing home sales in Canada in January

Previous : -2.70% Forecast : -

Published Value -5.80%

Previous

17:50:14

[Germany Building Permits Rebound in 2025, Ending Three-Year Decline] ⑴ Data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Wednesday showed that the number of building permits rebounded for the first time in three consecutive years in 2025. A total of 238,500 new and renovated residential units were approved throughout the year, a 10.8% increase compared to 2024. Permits in 2024 had fallen to their lowest level since 2010. ⑵ Building permits are an early indicator of future construction activity. In recent years, rising interest rates and high material costs have put continuous pressure on the industry. This rebound has been interpreted by some institutions as a signal of a turning point in the industry. ⑶ The German Construction Minister stated that industry sentiment has improved and investment is increasing. She believes that reduced bureaucracy and subsidy programs will ensure this positive trend continues in 2026. The scientific director of the German Institute for Macroeconomic Policy stated that the construction industry is shifting from a drag on growth to a growth driver. ⑷ However, the German Construction Industry Association warned against premature optimism. "Not all approved projects will actually start construction." Real estate experts predict that the actual number of newly built homes this year may only be slightly above 200,000. A study shows that Germany currently has a housing shortage of 1.4 million units, and to fill this gap by 2030, approximately 400,000 new homes need to be built each year.

17:40:22

[Euro dips slightly on Lagarde rumors, New Zealand dollar plunges on dovish stance of Reserve Bank of New Zealand] ⑴ The euro fell slightly on Wednesday after reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde planned to step down early. The Financial Times reported that she hoped to leave before next year's French presidential election, but the ECB later clarified that no decision had been made. ING analysts believe this will have limited short-term impact on the euro, as there are still many uncertainties surrounding the succession discussion. The euro fell 0.2% against the US dollar to 1.1831. ⑵ The New Zealand dollar plunged 0.8% to US$0.6001 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and stated that monetary policy needs to remain accommodative to support economic recovery. This was the first meeting since Governor Brehman took office. The Australian dollar followed suit, falling 0.2% to US$0.7070. ⑶ The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 97.27, marking its third consecutive day of gains. The market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes later on Wednesday, as well as subsequent durable goods orders data, for clues about the interest rate path. IG analysts say the market is currently in "wait-and-see mode." (4) The yen dipped slightly to 153.73. The US announced that Japan will provide $36 billion in financing for the first three infrastructure projects, part of Japan's pledged $550 billion investment plan in exchange for lower US tariffs. Analysts believe that large-scale direct investment could provide support for the dollar against the yen. The pound held steady at 1.3564, with sticky inflation in the services sector despite overall inflation slowing.

17:32:27

The annual rate of the DCLG house price index in the UK for December

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.40%

Previous

17:30:01

South Africa's Business Confidence Index (BCI) for January

Previous : 132.30 Forecast : -

Published Value 131.40

Previous

17:07:37

[US Treasury Yields' "Leap of Faith": Can the AI Productivity Revolution Open Up Room for Interest Rate Cuts?] ⑴ Over the past week, the US Treasury yield curve has fallen across the board to its lowest point this year, with the market pricing in a three-year rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026. This bond rally is difficult to explain simply by January's employment or inflation data—neither of which gave the Fed the green light for easing policies. A more likely explanation is that the market is incorporating expectations of an AI revolution into bond pricing. ⑵ The core logic is that if artificial intelligence triggers a massive boom in labor productivity, then even with strong economic growth, it could produce a structural deflationary effect, creating conditions for interest rate cuts. Kevin Warsh, who will take over as Fed chairman in May, has described AI as "the most productive wave of our lifetime" and believes it will prove to be a "structural anti-inflationary" force, just like the expansion of the internet. ⑶ However, this logic is built on numerous "ifs." A Bank of America survey shows that nearly 40% of global fund managers believe Warsh's appointment will push up US Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. Thomas, head of research at Carlyle Group, warned that neither history nor theory supports the simplistic conclusion that "AI productivity will inevitably lead to low interest rates." During the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, short-term real interest rates actually rose by about 300 basis points.⁴ Thomas pointed out that AI is not a "gift from heaven." The trillions of dollars invested annually in energy-intensive computers are already driving the entire economy. If this investment boom encounters resource constraints, rapid productivity gains cannot counteract high inflation. The Federal Reserve must choose between a "leap of faith" and waiting for solid evidence. Until then, the pressure from AI is no longer just a stock market issue.

17:05:36

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:05:29

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Tin

Previous : -25 Forecast : -

Published Value -10

Previous

17:05:24

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Zinc

Previous : -150 Forecast : -

Published Value -25

Previous

17:05:19

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Nickel

Previous : 810 Forecast : -

Published Value -24

Previous

17:05:12

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Primary aluminum

Previous : -2000 Forecast : -

Published Value -2000

Previous

17:05:04

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Lead

Previous : 54475 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:04:59

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Copper

Previous : 9775 Forecast : -

Published Value 3025

Previous

17:04:36

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

17:04:34

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on February 18th - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

16:23:22

South Africa's unadjusted CPI reading for January

Previous : 103.60 Forecast : -

Published Value 103.80

Previous

16:06:27

[US Resumes Uranium Enrichment, Venezuelan Oil Production Expected to Surge] ⑴ US Energy Secretary Wright stated on Tuesday that the US will resume domestic uranium enrichment activities, with some stages conducted jointly with French partners. He also predicted that Venezuelan oil production would increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day by the end of this year. ⑵ The Iraqi cabinet has approved a "friendly solution" with Russia's Lukoil, transferring the operation of the West Qurna 2 oil field to the state-owned Basra Oil Company. This move marks a significant step for Iraq in strengthening its control over its oil resources. ⑶ Commodity trading giant Glencore's oil trading volume is projected to reach 4.2 million barrels per day in 2025, a significant increase from 3.7 million barrels per day in 2024, indicating continued expansion of its energy trading business. ⑷ In terms of trade and energy investment, Japan's exports to the US have declined year-on-year for two consecutive months, and container imports at the Port of Los Angeles in January fell by 13% year-on-year, while exports hit a near three-year low. Meanwhile, Trump announced the formal launch of the US-Japan trade agreement, with Japan's initial investment plan in the US covering three major projects: $600 million for synthetic diamonds, $2.1 billion for crude oil, and $33.3 billion for data center gas-fired power generation. Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry stated that he will continue to closely coordinate project details with the US.

16:02:49

[Rumors of Lagarde's Resignation Disrupt Markets, Eurozone Bond Yields Hold Steady at Multi-Month Lows] ⑴ On Wednesday, eurozone bond yields were largely steady, hovering near multi-month lows. Investors were digesting media reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde might step down early. The yield on German 10-year bonds was flat at 2.743%, slightly above the two-and-a-half-month low of 2.725% reached on Monday. ⑵ Attention to Lagarde's future has increased due to a report in the Financial Times. The report stated that Lagarde plans to leave office before next year's French presidential election and hopes that French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz will be key decision-makers in her succession. Macron, having already served two terms, is ineligible to run in the 2027 election. An ECB spokesperson subsequently responded that Lagarde is focused on her duties and has not yet made any decisions regarding the end of her term. ⑶ Market reaction was muted. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds was also roughly flat at 3.356%, close to its lowest level since October last year. The yield on German 2-year government bonds, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations, remained unchanged at 2.054%. (4) Analysts at Danske Bank believe the new president's impact may be limited, as EU leaders have historically focused on maintaining a balance between doves and hawks within the Executive Board. The recent rise in European bond yields is partly due to their correlation with US Treasury yields; weak US inflation data and concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting the stock market have boosted safe-haven demand. Eurozone inflation is currently under control, and the market expects the ECB to remain on hold for the remainder of the year.

16:02:15

[IMF Issues Three Warnings to Japan: Central Bank Independence, Fiscal Restraint, Consumption Tax Unchanged] ⑴ On February 17, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report issuing three key policy warnings to the Japanese government: maintain the independence of the Bank of Japan, control fiscal expansion, and avoid addressing livelihood issues by cutting the consumption tax. The report's release coincided with the Japanese prime ministerial election, drawing significant market attention to the new government's policy direction. ⑵ Regarding monetary policy, the IMF emphasized that maintaining the Bank of Japan's independence and credibility helps stabilize inflation expectations. The institution explicitly stated that the Bank of Japan "should continue to exit monetary easing, bringing the policy rate to a neutral level by 2027." This stance contrasts with calls from some politicians to pause interest rate hikes. ⑶ On fiscal policy, the IMF believes further easing is inadvisable in the short term, contradicting the "responsible and proactive fiscal policy" concept proposed by Sanae Takaichi. The IMF pointed out that while Japan has some fiscal space, it still needs to exercise restraint to solidify its fiscal buffer and maintain its ability to cope with future shocks. In the long term, Japan's fiscal deficit will widen, and total public debt will further increase. (4) On livelihood policies, the IMF has explicitly opposed cutting the consumption tax. The market is closely watching whether Sanae Kashiwagi will push forward her previously proposed two-year "zero food consumption tax" commitment, and her stance on further interest rate hikes by the central bank.

16:01:27

The final reading of France's CPI for January excluding tobacco

Previous : 119.76 Forecast : -

Published Value 99.57

Previous

16:01:12

The month-on-month rate of France's CPI excluding tobacco in January - unadjusted final value

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : -

Published Value -0.40%

Previous

16:00:58

[Global Forex Market News Roundup: Divergence Remains Over Fed Rate Cut Path, RBA Hints at Continued Easing] ⑴ Regarding the Federal Reserve, Governor Barr stated that the outlook suggests interest rates will remain unchanged for some time, the job market is stabilizing, and price pressures are expected to ease further. Daly pointed out that there is still about 75 basis points of room before reaching the neutral rate and emphasized that the impact of AI must be thoroughly studied to make the right interest rate decisions. ⑵ Rumors of changes at the ECB leadership resurface. British media reported that Lagarde hopes to step down before the French presidential election next April. The ECB responded that it has not made any decision on the end of its term and is fully focused on its current mission. The French political situation adds uncertainty to the future leadership of the ECB. ⑶ The yen receives multiple supports. Japan's exports in January saw their fastest growth in more than three years. The IMF recommended that the Japanese government maintain the central bank's independence, control fiscal expansion, and assume two rate hikes this year and one more in 2027. The Finance Minister stated that responsible fiscal policy will be implemented. ⑷ The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with expectations. The statement said that as the recovery strengthens and inflation falls, monetary policy will gradually normalize, but is likely to remain accommodative for some time. Chairman Brehmann indicated that a rate hike is possible before the end of the year, but this would depend on stronger economic and inflationary pressures. The Swedish Finance Minister explicitly stated that Sweden will not join the Eurozone in the next few years.

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