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2025-10-31 Friday

2025-11-04

18:13:43

Preliminary monthly rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for October

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.30%

18:13:42

Preliminary reading of the eurozone's unadjusted CPI for October

Previous : 129.42 Forecast : -

Published Value 129.70

18:12:49

[Eurozone Inflation Slightly Declines, Central Bank Remains in Policy Comfort Zone] ⑴ Eurozone inflation slowed slightly to 2.1% in October, down 0.1 percentage point from 2.2% in September, but remains slightly above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% policy target. ⑵ This moderate slowdown provides policymakers with a reason to maintain the status quo, with no need to consider adjusting key interest rates again in the short term. ⑶ Inflation data continues to hover near the target level, allowing the ECB to maintain its current policy stance. ⑷ The gradual easing of price pressures and the balanced economic growth together constitute a relatively stable policy environment. ⑸ The current inflation trajectory shows that the Eurozone is steadily moving towards the central bank's target, without any abnormal fluctuations requiring immediate intervention. ⑹ The market generally expects the central bank to maintain stable interest rates for some time to observe the continued impact of existing policies on the economy. ⑺ This data further reinforces the central bank's previous assessment of the economic outlook, namely that inflation will gradually return to the target level.

18:10:56

[Eurozone Inflation Remains Stubborn: Accelerating Services Inflation Offsets Energy Price Decline] ⑴ The Eurozone's preliminary inflation rate for October was 2.1%, in line with market expectations, down 0.1 percentage points from September's 2.2%. ⑵ Core inflation (excluding energy, food, and tobacco) remained unchanged at 2.4%, higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. ⑶ Services inflation accelerated to 3.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from September's 3.2%, becoming the main factor supporting core inflation. ⑷ Energy prices fell by 1.0% year-on-year, a larger decline than September's 0.4%, putting downward pressure on overall inflation. ⑸ The price increase for food, alcohol, and tobacco narrowed to 2.5%, with the price increase for unprocessed food falling significantly from 4.7% to 3.2%. ⑹ Non-energy industrial goods inflation slightly decreased to 0.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from September's 0.8%. (7) Looking at monthly changes, overall prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, with core commodity prices rising 0.3% month-on-month, indicating that inflationary pressures persist. (8) The tug-of-war between rising service sector prices and falling energy prices has kept the inflation rate hovering around the European Central Bank's 2% target.

18:09:50

The preliminary reading of Italy's unadjusted CPI for October

Previous : 123.10 Forecast : -

Published Value 122.70

18:09:45

The dollar index remained around 99.50, with traders balancing Powell's comments with bets on interest rate cuts. Details>

18:05:18

[Greek Retail Sales Rebound Strongly, Domestic Demand Engine Rekindles] ⑴ Greek retail sales volume in August increased by 3.9% year-on-year, a significant acceleration from the 2.1% growth in July, indicating continued strengthening of consumer momentum. ⑵ Retail revenue increased by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the 3.9% increase in July, reflecting growth driven by both sales volume and price factors. ⑶ Food sales volume increased by 4.6% year-on-year, becoming a key pillar supporting overall retail growth. ⑷ Non-food sales volume (excluding motor fuel) increased significantly by 7.6%, indicating a significant recovery in demand for non-essential consumer goods. ⑸ Motor fuel sales volume decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, the only sub-category to contract. ⑹ Recent trends show that retail sales have maintained positive growth for three consecutive months, a stark contrast to the 5.8% decline in May. ⑺ The current growth trend is a significant improvement from the 5.1% decline in August last year, indicating that the Greek domestic demand market is emerging from its slump.

18:03:56

[Eurozone Inflation Alarms: Accelerating Services Inflation Offsets Lower Energy Prices] ⑴ Eurozone inflation dipped slightly to 2.1% in October, remaining close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, in line with expectations of a moderate economic recovery. ⑵ Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4%, exceeding market expectations of a slowdown, as services inflation accelerated from 3.2% to 3.4%. ⑶ The decline in industrial goods inflation was completely offset by rapid growth in services prices, with lower energy costs being the main driver of the slight overall inflation decline. ⑷ The ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, believing that inflation is on its target trajectory and that the most serious risks to economic growth have diminished. ⑸ Market expectations indicate that the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates again before mid-next year is only 40%, with most economists believing that the current rate-cutting cycle has ended. ⑹ In the year ending in June, the ECB had cumulatively cut interest rates by 2 percentage points, and the lagged effects of policy transmission continue to impact the real economy. ⑺ Some policymakers are concerned that inflation risks are tilted to the downside, predicting that inflation will fall below 2% early next year due to the statistical base effect, which may change corporate pricing expectations. (8) Another view holds that the economy is performing better than expected, with multiple surveys showing improved economic activity, which should alleviate economic concerns and limit the downside risk of inflation.

18:02:45

[French Grain Planting Accelerates, Corn Quality Concerns Emerge] ⑴ The condition of French grain corn remained stable in the week ending October 27, with the "good" grade maintaining a 55% share. ⑵ However, the quality of corn this year is significantly lower than the same period last year, with the "excellent" grade share dropping from 6% to 4%, and the "good" and above grades decreasing by a total of 17 percentage points. ⑶ The combined share of "poor" and "very poor" corn grades reached 16%, far higher than the 5% of the same period last year, reflecting challenges in crop growth. ⑷ Grain corn planting progress has reached 82%, significantly faster than the 36% of the same period last year, and also exceeding the five-year average of 75%. ⑸ Soft wheat planting is 68% complete, a rapid progress from 57% the previous week, and significantly higher than the 38% of the same period last year and the five-year average of 61%. ⑹ Winter barley planting has reached 80%, surpassing the previous week's progress of 73% and the 58% of the same period last year, and slightly higher than the five-year average of 76%. (7) The planting progress of hard wheat is 9%, which is still in the early stage, but has exceeded the 3% of the same period last year and is close to the five-year average of 10%.

18:01:05

[Divergence Behind Global Stock Markets' Seven-Month Rally: Tech Boom vs. Asian Sentiment] ⑴ Global stocks are on track for their seventh consecutive monthly gain on Friday, while the dollar index hovers near a three-month high. ⑵ Strong earnings reports from Amazon and Apple reinforced global tech optimism, with markets anticipating massive AI spending that will ultimately boost economic growth. ⑶ Nasdaq futures surged 1.1%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, as Amazon's better-than-expected earnings drove its pre-market share price up more than 11%. ⑷ Apple's shares rose more than 2% on forecasts of strong iPhone sales, offsetting plunges in Meta and Microsoft due to concerns about surging AI spending. ⑸ Japan's Nikkei index jumped more than 2% on Friday, bringing its monthly gain to 16.4%, its best monthly performance since 1990, mainly driven by expectations of stimulus policies from the new prime minister. ⑹ Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell by about 1.5%. ⑺ Despite the Federal Reserve chairman's dismissal of market optimism about a December rate cut, US Treasuries and European government bonds remained stable on Friday. (8) The US dollar index remained near a three-month high of 99.5, the euro was flat against the dollar at 1.1569, and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time. (9) In the commodities market, oil prices fell for the third consecutive month, with Brent crude futures down 0.9% to $64.55 per barrel. (10) Spot gold prices fell 0.3% to $4,008 per ounce, a significant drop from the record high of $4,381 reached last week.

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's harmonized CPI annual rate for October

Previous : 1.80% Forecast : 1.70%

Published Value 1.30%

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's harmonized CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : 1.30% Forecast : 0.20%

Published Value -0.20%

18:00:41

Preliminary reading of Italy's CPI monthly rate for October

Previous : -0.20% Forecast : 0%

Published Value -0.30%

18:00:40

The preliminary annual rate of Italy's CPI in October

Previous : 1.60% Forecast : 1.60%

Published Value 1.20%

18:00:07

The preliminary annual rate of the eurozone's harmonized CPI excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol for October

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.30%

Published Value 2.40%

18:00:06

Eurozone harmonized CPI annual rate for October - unadjusted preliminary value

Previous : 2.20% Forecast : 2.10%

Neutral

Published Value 2.10%

18:00:06

Eurozone core harmonized CPI annual rate for October - unadjusted preliminary value

Previous : 2.40% Forecast : 2.30%

欧元金银

美元

Published Value 2.40%

17:59:31

Annual rate of retail sales in Greece in August

Previous : 2.10% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.90%

17:59:04

From a one-sided decline to a sideways tug-of-war: EUR/USD awaits "data revival" to break the 1.1570 deadlock? Details>

17:58:50

[Is the Yen's Sharp Rise Just a "Verbal" Rebound? Tokyo Inflation Reaches 2.8%, Pressuring the Central Bank; Monthly Decline Still Reaches 4%, Worst in July] ⑴ Japan's new Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, expressed a "high sense of urgency" on Thursday, monitoring the foreign exchange market and retracting his March statement that "120-130 yen is reasonable." The yen surged in European trading on Friday, while the dollar rose only slightly by 0.1% against the yen to 154.28, recovering from a nine-month low. ⑵ Tokyo's October core CPI surged to 2.8%, higher than expected. The central bank's policy space narrowed after holding rates steady on Thursday, raising market concerns about escalating verbal intervention by the government. ⑶ Institutional statistics show that the yen still fell 4% against the dollar in October and hit a record low against the euro. The dollar index approached a three-month high, with risk aversion continuing to weigh on the dollar. ⑷ Fed Chair Powell's hawkish stance, with the probability of a December rate cut plummeting from over 90% to 75%, dashed expectations of a narrowing interest rate differential, making yen short sellers even more aggressive. (5) The euro rose slightly by 0.1% to $1.1572 on Friday, as the European Central Bank maintained its 2% interest rate for the third consecutive time, declaring its policy "well positioned," but the monthly decline had already reached 1.4%. (6) The pound suffered another blow: Political uncertainty surrounding UK Chancellor Reeves intensified, causing the pound to dip slightly to $1.3145 on Friday, potentially closing the month 2.3% lower. The euro rose for the fifth consecutive month against the pound, holding above 0.88 and reaching a two-and-a-half-year high, while the market eagerly awaited fiscal details but only saw a "long wait."

17:55:21

Super Trading Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amidst PMI, ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, and Central Bank Decisions Details>

17:53:58

[Even the Prime Minister's Protection Can't Stop the "Reeves Risk": Pound Just Dropped 0.1%, 10-Year Bond Yield Soared 2.2 Basis Points] ⑴ ING warned that if UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves resigns unexpectedly, the pound and UK bonds will replicate the July flash crash, with volatility increasing dramatically. ⑵ Market Fear Point: Top-level personnel change = loosening of fiscal discipline, coinciding with peak UK bond supply, deficit financing may expand further. ⑶ Real-time Market Data: Pound fell 0.1% against the dollar to 1.3141, euro rose 0.1% against the pound to 0.8802, and the 10-year UK bond yield rose 2.2 basis points to 4.430%. ⑷ The opposition is using the "tenancy license" issue to pressure Prime Minister Starmer, who has publicly supported him, but the rental agents' willingness to take responsibility has not extinguished the selling pressure.

17:43:41

[Poland's Q3 GDP figures not yet released, Finance Minister calls for a finish line] ⑴ Poland's Finance Minister stated on Friday that Q3 GDP growth will be "significantly faster" than the 3.4% growth in the second quarter, using growth to offset the soaring fiscal deficit. ⑵ Fitch and Moody's have already lowered Poland's rating outlook to negative; Warsaw urgently needs a data victory to stabilize market confidence. ⑶ Official statement: The economy's "dynamic expansion" is helping the government "digest debt with growth," but the gap remains large, hence the proposed bank tax increase to fill the gap. ⑷ The Statistics Office will release the final figures on November 13th; the market is holding its breath, waiting to verify whether the "official forecast" has materialized.

17:43:31

[AI Surge Fails to Save Eurozone: Overall Economic Conditions Show Only "Slight Improvement," Consumption Like a Power Cut] ⑴ The European Central Bank's business survey on Friday showed that the overall economic situation in the Eurozone has only "slightly improved," with growth rates negligible. ⑵ The AI sector is booming, with software, database, and cloud orders surging year-on-year. The financial and public sectors are spending the most, and traditional consulting firms are being disrupted by algorithms, leading to layoffs. ⑶ Manufacturing output continues to shrink, hit by a triple whammy of tariffs, global demand uncertainty, and declining competitiveness. Businesses say they "have no bottom in the short term." ⑷ Consumer spending remains weak. Home appliances and electronics are barely showing positive growth due to the replacement cycle, while the summer peak season for tourism and hotels has passed, and prices have returned to normal. ⑸ The job market is stagnant, wage growth has turned downwards, and business expansion intentions are locked in by uncertainty, leading to a downward revision of labor cost expectations.

17:30:18

[Intervention Alarm Sounded: Bull-Bear Battle at the USD/JPY 155 Level] ⑴ Traders must seriously consider the real and rising risk of Japanese authorities intervening in the USD/JPY exchange rate, an action that could happen soon. ⑵ The USD/JPY is rising to levels where Japanese authorities previously sold dollars, and under pressure from the US, they are likely to act again. ⑶ The yen's weakness is a problem Japan needs to address, as it essentially equates to loosening monetary policy and exacerbating inflation, and the yen is currently extremely weak. ⑷ While the dollar's own trade-weighted index remains weak, the yen's trade-weighted value is nearing its historic low reached last July. ⑸ As one of the most actively traded currency pairs, the USD/JPY's movement is clearly troubling the US government, and the US stance will determine whether and when intervention occurs. ⑹ As the USD/JPY rapidly climbs towards the 155 level, Japanese officials have begun warning of excessive exchange rate volatility, a clear signal that intervention is imminent. (7) The last intervention to sell dollars occurred in July 2024 (with the exchange rate near 162), and before that, in September 2022 (with the exchange rate around 152). (8) Historical interventions have resulted in significant exchange rate declines: to 127 in 2023 (a drop of approximately 25 yen), and to 139 last September (a drop of approximately 23 yen), providing ample justification for hedging against the next potential intervention and a surge in the yen. (9) A coordinated intervention backed by the United States could have a more significant market impact. (10) When the market lacks safe-haven assets, investors tend to buy dollars, further complicating the current complexities of the foreign exchange market.

17:30:07

[Yen staged a dramatic comeback, while the pound sterling sank deeper: October's forex market closes] ⑴ The yen strengthened on Friday after new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated he was closely monitoring forex market developments with a high degree of urgency, providing support for the yen. ⑵ Despite a rebound during the day, the yen still fell 4% in October, its worst monthly performance since July, and hit a record low against the euro. ⑶ Tokyo's core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year in October, higher than expected, indicating that inflation continues to exceed the target level, adding complexity to the Bank of Japan's future policy path. ⑷ The dollar index hovered near a three-month high, with risk aversion continuing to favor the dollar, while the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on a December rate cut reduced the probability of a cut from over 90% a week ago to around 75%. ⑸ The euro rose slightly by 0.1% to $1.1572 after the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive time, stating that policy was in a "good position" as economic risks subsided. (6) The pound fell to $1.3145 amid concerns about the potential impact of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' upcoming budget on businesses and the economy. (7) The pound has fallen 2.3% this month, performing even worse than the euro, which has remained at a more than two-year high of 88 pence against the pound and is on track for its fifth consecutive month of gains.

17:24:23

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: We affirm the necessity of establishing a mutually beneficial strategic relationship.

17:21:52

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,000.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $3,999.89/ounce, down 0.60% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,012.40/ounce, down 0.09% on the day.

17:14:02

[USD/IRR Approaching Historical High, Policy Unchanged Could Push Towards 92.42] ⑴ The USD/IRR is approaching its historical high. Technical analysis suggests a target of 89.11 based on the March 2024 base period, using the February high and May low. ⑵ Despite intervention measures to slow the rate's rise, the overall intervention has been limited and has failed to reverse the upward trend. ⑶ India's foreign exchange reserves continue to grow and are near record levels, providing a liquidity buffer for the market. ⑷ The Reserve Bank of India's underlying foreign exchange policy generally favors a stronger USD/IRR. ⑸ If current policy remains unchanged, after breaking through 89.11, the next internally driven upside target is 92.42. ⑹ In the global context, when the market lacks clear safe-haven assets, investors tend to buy the US dollar, further enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets.

17:13:01

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1590.00/oz mark, and is currently trading at $1589.65/oz, down 0.54% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are currently trading at $1593.9/oz, down 1.26% on the day.

17:12:56

[Yield Rift: Reshaping the Global Bond Market Landscape and Opportunities for the US Dollar] ⑴ The yield on German 10-year government bonds was 2.654%, significantly lower than the US yield of 4.108%, forming a huge negative spread of 145.4 basis points. ⑵ The US 10-year yield is among the highest of major global economies, only lower than Australia's 4.306% and the UK's 4.429%, but significantly higher than core Eurozone countries. ⑶ In terms of short-term interest rates, the US 2-year yield reached 3.615%, surpassing most developed countries and only slightly lower than the UK's 3.792%, in stark contrast to Germany's 1.984%. ⑷ A clear yield ladder is visible: Japan's long-term yield is the lowest at only 1.659%, with Germany and other Eurozone countries in the middle, and English-speaking countries such as the UK, US, and Australia consistently leading in yields. ⑸ As the benchmark for the Eurozone, Germany's 10-year yield has a positive spread of 50-77 basis points compared to major Eurozone countries such as Belgium, France, and Italy. (6) Cross-maturity comparisons show that the US yield curve is relatively steep, with a spread of nearly 50 basis points between 10-year and 2-year yields, while the German curve is relatively flat. (7) This multi-tiered yield differential provides clear directional guidance for global capital flows, and the attractiveness of high-yield currency assets continues to increase.

17:12:33

Preliminary reading of the annual rate of government consumption expenditure in Hong Kong, China for the third quarter

Previous : 2.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.60%

17:12:33

Preliminary annual rate of private consumption expenditure in Hong Kong, China for the third quarter

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.10%

17:12:33

Preliminary value of the year-on-year rate of fixed capital expenditure in Hong Kong, China for the third quarter

Previous : 2.90% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.30%

17:12:32

Preliminary estimate of the year-on-year rate of service imports in Hong Kong, China in the third quarter

Previous : 7% Forecast : -

Published Value 2.60%

17:12:30

Preliminary value of the year-on-year rate of goods imports in Hong Kong, China in the third quarter

Previous : 12.70% Forecast : -

Published Value 11.70%

17:12:29

Preliminary estimate of the year-on-year rate of Hong Kong's service exports in the third quarter

Previous : 7.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 6.10%

17:12:28

Preliminary value of the year-on-year rate of Hong Kong's goods exports in the third quarter

Previous : 11.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 12.20%

17:10:36

Annual rate of retail sales in Hong Kong, China in September

Previous : 3.20% Forecast : 1.90%

Published Value 4.80%

17:07:08

[The Hedging Dilemma: Three Signals of a Dollar's Comeback] ⑴ When global markets lack clear safe-haven assets, investors often turn to the US dollar for protection, a pattern proven effective in previous hedging periods. ⑵ In 2025, investors tried various hedging tools such as the euro, yen, gold, and Swiss franc amid trade conflicts, but with mixed results: the yen fell instead of rising, and the Swiss franc's gains were limited by intervention from the Swiss National Bank. ⑶ While gold became one of the best trading instruments of the year and lacked interest rate support, its current price is expensive and trading is crowded, raising questions about its safety. ⑷ The euro is also showing signs of weakness and is unlikely to break through the key resistance level of 1.20 unless there are significant fundamental changes. ⑸ The continued rise in the stock market has reduced the demand for hedging, but investors still need to protect their profits, creating a unique market contradiction. ⑹ If the market experiences the expected correction, the currently continuously sold-off dollar and heavily shorted US Treasury bonds may show stronger rebound potential than other hedging assets this year. (7) Traditional safe-haven assets that were once overlooked—especially dollar assets that have undergone deep corrections—are returning to investors’ sights.

17:05:04

[ECB's "Reassurance" Fails? Market Undercurrents Behind Inflation Target Achievement] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) emphasized that inflation remains close to its medium-term target of 2%, and its assessment of the inflation outlook remains largely unchanged. ⑵ The Governing Council did not pre-commit to a specific interest rate path, but is determined to ensure that inflation stabilizes at the 2% target level over the medium term. ⑶ Despite a challenging global environment, the Eurozone economy continues to grow, with a robust labor market, a strong private sector balance sheet, and past interest rate cuts being important sources of resilience. ⑷ However, the economic outlook remains uncertain, mainly due to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, particularly market concerns triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric. ⑸ The ECB will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. ⑹ According to the ECB's professional forecasters survey released on Friday, Eurozone inflation is expected to be 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, both forecasts unchanged from three months ago. (7) Surveys show that long-term inflation expectations remain stable at 2.0%, with GDP growth projected at 1.1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027; these forecasts remain unchanged. (8) Institutional reports indicate that Eurozone inflation will remain near the central bank's 2% target in the coming years, while economic growth is expected to slowly recover to its potential level. (9) At its meeting on Thursday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, believing that the inflation outlook remains largely unchanged, with price growth fluctuating around 2% and likely to remain near that level in the coming years. (10) Internal forecasts from the European Central Bank show that the inflation rate in October (to be released at 18:00 Beijing time on Friday) is expected to decline slightly to 2.1% from 2.2% a month ago, then fall to 1.6% in early 2026, before slowly recovering to 2% by mid-2027.

17:04:17

Spain's current account for August

Previous : 62.70 Forecast : -

Published Value 50.80

17:02:58

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Copper

Previous : -400 Forecast : -

Published Value -325

17:02:49

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Primary aluminum

Previous : -3225 Forecast : -

Published Value 98525

17:02:42

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Cobalt

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

17:02:37

LME Daily Inventory changes in the UK on October 31st - Tin

Previous : -40 Forecast : -

Published Value 85

17:02:33

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Nickel

Previous : -40 Forecast : -

Published Value 462

17:02:27

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Main NASAAC aluminum alloys

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

17:02:22

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Lead

Previous : -700 Forecast : -

Published Value -3875

17:02:16

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31st - Zinc

Previous : -300 Forecast : -

Published Value 400

17:02:10

LME Daily inventory changes in the UK on October 31 - Aluminum Alloy

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

16:59:19

[Yen Under Pressure Nears Year-to-Date Lows; Market Focuses on Policy Divergence Between Japan and the US] ⑴ The yen weakened again during Friday's European session, nearing its lowest level since February. ⑵ Strong inflation data from the Tokyo region briefly boosted expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, but the market reaction was short-lived. ⑶ Traders generally believe that against the backdrop of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi potentially implementing an aggressive fiscal spending plan, the Bank of Japan may resist further policy tightening.

16:54:37

[UK gilt yields rise following US and European bond markets] ⑴ UK gilt yields climbed, following the trend of the US and Eurozone bond markets. ⑵ Investors lowered their expectations for interest rate cuts by major central banks in the coming months. ⑶ The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday but indicated it might not act again in December; the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged on Thursday. ⑷ Expectations for rate cuts in the US and Eurozone declined, and expectations for a rate cut in the UK also decreased. ⑸ The money market estimates a 62% probability of a Bank of England rate cut before the end of 2025, a decrease of 10 percentage points from a week ago. ⑹ The 10-year UK gilt yield rose 2.2 basis points to 4.430%.

16:54:29

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,010.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,009.89/ounce, down 0.36% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,021.90/ounce, up 0.15% on the day.

16:54:18

[Xinjiang's Electricity Transmission Exceeds 100 Billion kWh in the First Three Quarters, with Renewable Energy Accounting for Over 30%] ⑴ Xinjiang's electricity transmission to other regions reached 108.4 billion kWh in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 12%. ⑵ Renewable energy transmission reached 35.8 billion kWh, accounting for over 30%, a year-on-year increase of 11.51%. ⑶ This renewable energy transmission is equivalent to reducing standard coal consumption by approximately 10.83 million tons. ⑷ Carbon dioxide emissions were reduced by over 29 million tons.

16:53:34

German automaker Volkswagen Group released its financial report on October 30, showing that the US tariffs could cause the company losses of up to €5 billion for the year. Recently, several German automakers stated in their financial reports that the significant increase in US tariffs on imported automobiles has had a substantial impact on their performance this year. Volkswagen's report shows that the company's operating profit for the first nine months of this year was €5.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 58%, with an operating loss of €1.3 billion in the third quarter. Volkswagen Group's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer, Arnault Antlitz, stated that a major reason for the decline in the group's operating profit was the US tariffs, and he expects the related impact to continue. The report also shows that in the first three quarters of this year, Volkswagen's global sales reached 6.58 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with sales in the North American market declining by 11%. (CCTV News)

16:52:50

Nvidia CEO: Hopes both South Korean companies can succeed in the High Bandwidth Memory 4 (HBM4) field.

16:51:54

[Turkish Finance Minister Says Primary Fiscal Surplus Expected in 2026] ⑴ The Turkish Finance Minister stated that Turkey's deinflation process will continue its strong progress in 2026. ⑵ Financing conditions will gradually improve in the coming months as inflation continues to decline. ⑶ The budget deficit will continue to narrow to support the deinflation process, and some government-controlled taxes may fall below the target inflation level. ⑷ Turkey will achieve a primary fiscal surplus in 2026, and may consider easing restrictions on loan growth next year.

16:51:40

[Romanian Bond Issuance Exceeds Target, Yields Decline Significantly] ⑴ The Romanian Ministry of Finance issued €1.744 billion in bonds maturing in 2030, exceeding the original target. ⑵ The average yield on the fixed-rate bonds issued this time fell to 6.98%, a significant decrease from 7.57% in the same type of bond issued last month. ⑶ Market demand was strong, with subscriptions reaching 2.217 billion lei, far exceeding the previous issuance of 427.7 million lei. ⑷ The annual coupon rate for this bond issue is 6.85%, and the Ministry of Finance will resume issuance next Monday. ⑸ An additional 75 million lei is planned to be raised through a non-competitive tender.

16:51:06

[German DAX Index Falls to Two-Week Low] ⑴ The German DAX index fell 0.3% to 24,035 points on Friday, hitting a two-week low. ⑵ This week, the market experienced central bank meetings and a flurry of corporate earnings reports and economic data. ⑶ Investors are closely watching today's Eurozone inflation data, which may influence the ECB's subsequent policy. ⑷ In terms of individual stocks, Deutsche Telekom and Adidas both fell 1.3%, while Hannover Re fell 1%. ⑸ Scout24 fell 0.9%, becoming one of the major decliners.

16:49:52

[European Automotive Industry Faces Threat of Production Shutdowns Due to Chip Shortage] ⑴ The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (EAA) has warned that a shortage of basic microchips threatens the European automotive industry with imminent assembly line shutdowns. ⑵ This shortage affects automotive electrical system control units, and the industry situation is becoming increasingly dire. ⑶ Automakers are currently depleting their stockpiles, but supplies are rapidly dwindling. ⑷ The association's director general stated that parts supplies have already ceased due to the shortage. ⑸ This means that assembly line shutdowns may be just days away.

16:48:23

Turkish Finance Minister: We may consider easing some measures next year, such as restrictions on loan growth.

16:48:13

[Analysts: Indonesian Stocks on track for fourth consecutive monthly gain] ⑴ The Indonesian IDX Composite Index rose slightly to around 8193 points on Friday afternoon, poised for its third consecutive trading day of gains. ⑵ Healthcare, logistics, and utilities sectors led the gains, fueled by reports that Indonesia and the US will resume tariff negotiations in November. ⑶ Traders are focused on September trade data, October inflation rate, and third-quarter GDP figures to be released next week. ⑷ US stock index futures rose slightly after mixed earnings reports from technology companies. ⑸ The Jakarta benchmark index is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up about 1.6% so far in October. ⑹ Market expectations of further monetary easing by the Indonesian central bank provide support.

16:47:38

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1600.00/ounce mark, last trading at $1599.85/ounce, up 0.10% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1604.9/ounce, down 0.58% on the day.

16:46:45

Turkish Finance Minister: Inflation will continue to decline strongly in 2026.

16:45:38

The year-on-year rate of M3 money supply in Hong Kong, China in September

Previous : 4% Forecast : -

Published Value 4.50%

16:45:37

Turkish Finance Minister: Financing conditions will improve as inflation continues to decline in the coming months.

16:44:51

[China Wins Hosting of 2026 APEC CEO Summit] At the handover ceremony held in Gyeongju, South Korea on October 31, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) officially took over the hosting rights for the 2026 APEC CEO Summit.

16:43:53

[ECB Governing Council Member Emphasizes Caution Regarding Inflation Forecasts] ⑴ ECB Governing Council member Kazzaks pointed out that caution is needed regarding the new inflation forecasts to be released in December. ⑵ He emphasized that volatile policy decisions based on forecasts should be avoided, and prudence is a virtue that policymakers should uphold. ⑶ The inclusion of price trend projections for 2028 for the first time will help assess the path to achieving inflation targets. ⑷ However, due to high uncertainty, the forecasts are highly likely to be revised. ⑸ Kazzaks believes that while the 2028 forecasts are important, their importance should not be overestimated. ⑹ These forecasts will come with a large margin of error, and uncertainty will persist.

16:43:29

South Korean Presidential Office: South Korea and the Philippines agree to deepen cooperation in defense, shipbuilding, and infrastructure.

16:41:34

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: China is a very large and important market. China has so much AI research; it is simply irreplaceable.

16:41:04

[Analysts: Global Bond Markets Experience an "Unforgettable October" with Significant Yield Drops in Many Countries] ⑴ UK government bonds led a global bond market rebound, with both 10-year and 30-year yields falling by approximately 30 basis points. ⑵ German and French government bond yields saw their largest monthly declines since December 2023, marking their largest monthly drops since April. ⑶ Japanese 30-year government bond yields fell by approximately 10 basis points, the largest monthly decline since the end of 2023. ⑷ Slowing inflation and improved interest rate prospects drove the bond market higher, but high levels of government debt still pose long-term pressure. ⑸ US 10-year Treasury yields are expected to fall for the third consecutive month, but the Federal Reserve remains cautious about a December rate cut. ⑹ Analysts pointed to improved fiscal space in the UK and reduced political uncertainty in Japan boosting market confidence. ⑺ Despite the strong performance in October, concerns remain about French budget risks, a surge in German bond issuance, and weakening structural demand. ⑻ Investors need long-term yield stability to increase their allocation to long-term bonds.

16:38:36

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: Nvidia will continue to grow; Samsung manufactures all of Nvidia's robotic processors.

16:38:05

European stocks edged lower on Friday. ⑴ European stocks fell slightly on Friday, with both the Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 indices down 0.1%. ⑵ Markets continued to focus on corporate earnings reports. ⑶ Electrolux fell more than 2.8%, and Saint-Gobain continued its decline, falling more than 2%. ⑷ ASML Holdings fell 0.8%, and Shell fell 1.3%. ⑸ AB InBev rose 2%, leading the gains.

16:37:42

[French CAC40 Index Falls to Two-Week Low] ⑴ The French CAC40 index fell to 8145 points on Friday, its lowest level since October 15. ⑵ Saint-Gobain Group fell 2.5%, with comparable revenue in the third quarter declining slightly by 0.2%. ⑶ AXA shares fell 1.6%, despite maintaining its annual target and reporting a 7% increase in premium income for the first nine months. ⑷ Scor Group fell 5.2%, despite better-than-expected quarterly profits. ⑸ Imerys surged 5.2% as it entered exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in a French lithium mine project. ⑹ French inflation slowed to 1.0% in October, a larger-than-expected decline.

16:36:05

[The Federal Reserve plans to significantly reduce its bank supervision staff] ⑴ An internal Federal Reserve memo indicates plans to cut the size of its bank supervision department by 30% by the end of 2026. ⑵ After the layoffs, the department will retain only about 350 employees. ⑶ This size is far below the previously approved 500-person staff.

16:35:47

[China's Foreign Exchange Market Turnover Reached RMB 26.87 Trillion in September 2025] ⑴ Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that the total turnover of China's foreign exchange market in September 2025 reached RMB 26.87 trillion. ⑵ By trading entity, bank-to-customer transactions totaled RMB 4.43 trillion, and interbank market transactions totaled RMB 22.44 trillion. ⑶ By trading instrument, spot market transactions totaled RMB 9.87 trillion, and derivatives market transactions totaled RMB 17.00 trillion. ⑷ From January to September 2025, the cumulative turnover reached RMB 230.10 trillion, equivalent to USD 32.11 trillion.

16:35:10

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: South Korea must seize the opportunity to become one of the world's leading AI hubs.

16:34:56

Oracle Shares Rise Over 2% Pre-Market as it Partners with OpenAI to Build Hyperscale Data Center. ⑴ Oracle (ORCL.US) shares rose over 2% pre-market, reaching $262.45. ⑵ OpenAI, Oracle, and project developer Related Digital plan to build a hyperscale data center campus in Salin, Michigan. ⑶ The project will generate over 1 gigawatt of electricity and is a key component of the OpenAI-Oracle collaboration. ⑷ The two companies plan to add 4.5 gigawatts of "Stargate" computing capacity, with construction expected to begin in early 2026. ⑸ This project, developed specifically for Oracle, aims to enhance the United States' competitiveness in the global artificial intelligence race.

16:34:07

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: We are at the beginning of a decade-long journey to build a completely new computing platform.

16:33:29

Turkish Finance Minister: Türkiye will achieve a primary surplus in 2026.

16:33:03

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on October 31, my country's electronic information manufacturing industry experienced rapid growth in the first three quarters of this year. Among them, smartphone production reached 881 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%. Data shows that in the first three quarters, the added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 10.9% year-on-year, 4.7 and 1.3 percentage points higher than the growth rates of the overall industrial sector and high-tech manufacturing sector, respectively. Among major products, mobile phone production reached 1.11 billion units; microcomputer equipment production reached 251 million units, remaining flat year-on-year; and integrated circuit production reached 381.9 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. Furthermore, in the first three quarters, the cumulative export delivery value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 2.1% year-on-year. The industry achieved operating revenue of 12.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; operating costs of 10.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%; and total profits of 493.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. (Xinhua News Agency)

16:32:46

Turkish Finance Minister: Budget deficit will continue to decline to support falling inflation.

16:31:09

[ECB's Stable Interest Rates Benefit Bank Stocks] ⑴ Some argue that the ECB's decision to maintain the 2% interest rate for the third consecutive time is still beneficial for bank stocks. ⑵ Analysts believe that loan growth and an upward-sloping yield curve are key factors supporting improved bank profitability and valuations. ⑶ Their earnings forecasts for the European banking sector are based on the assumption that interest rates will remain at this level until 2028. ⑷ Even a further 25 basis point rate cut would have a limited impact on profitability due to the increased resilience of banks' net interest income. ⑸ Currently, every 25 basis point change in interest rates only affects about 1% of industry profits.

16:30:25

Annual rate of retail sales in Hong Kong, China in September

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 5.90%

16:30:07

Preliminary growth rate of Hong Kong's GDP in the third quarter

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : 3.10%

Published Value 3.80%

16:30:07

Preliminary estimate of Hong Kong's GDP growth rate for the third quarter

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : -0.20%

Published Value 0.70%

16:24:51

[Spain Sees Record High in Tourist Arrivals in September] ⑴ Spain received 9.7 million international tourists in September 2025, a 0.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. ⑵ This sets a new record for September, with the UK being the largest source of visitors, attracting nearly 2.1 million tourists. ⑶ Germany received 1.3 million tourists, and France received 1.1 million, representing year-on-year decreases of 2.5% and 1.6%, respectively. ⑷ The cumulative number of international tourists received in the first nine months of 2025 reached 76.5 million, setting a new record for the same period.

16:24:15

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1610.00/oz mark, last trading at $1604.15/oz, up 0.37% on the day; Nymex platinum futures main contract was last trading at $1608.1/oz, down 0.38% on the day.

16:24:06

Turkish Finance Minister: Economic growth has slowed to some extent, but remains at an appropriate and moderate level.

16:22:11

ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The margin of error for the 2028 outlook will be large.

16:21:57

[Austria's Inflation Rate Remains High at 4% in October] ⑴ Austria's annual inflation rate for October 2025 was 4%, unchanged from the previous month. ⑵ The services sector inflation rate reached 4.6%, remaining the largest contributor to overall inflation. ⑶ Industrial goods inflation slightly decreased to 1.3%, while food, tobacco, and alcohol prices rose slightly to 3.9%. ⑷ Energy prices accelerated to 9.7%, with electricity and gas costs rising significantly year-on-year. ⑸ The core inflation rate (including industrial goods and services) fell to 3.4% from 3.5% in September. ⑹ Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, compared to a 0.2% decrease in the previous month.

16:21:43

Nomura Securities: Expects a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's Bank of England meeting.

16:17:08

[French Producer Prices Fall 0.2% Month-on-Month in September] ⑴ French domestic producer prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in September 2025, unchanged from the previous month. ⑵ Mining, quarrying, energy, and water supply costs fell 0.8%, a larger decline than the previous month. ⑶ Finished goods prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.3% decrease in the previous month. ⑷ Food, beverage, and tobacco prices rose slightly by 0.2%, while electrical and electronic equipment prices rebounded by 0.1%. ⑸ Coke and refined petroleum product prices rebounded significantly, rising 2.8% month-on-month. ⑹ Transport equipment prices were basically flat, while year-on-year producer prices rose slightly by 0.1%. ⑺ Moderate increases in finished goods prices provided support.

16:15:44

[International Oil Prices Expected to Fall for Third Consecutive Monthly Session; Oversupply and Strong Dollar Pressure] ⑴ International oil prices continued their decline on Friday, and are expected to close lower for the third consecutive month. ⑵ Brent crude was at $64.88 per barrel, and WTI crude was at $60.36 per barrel. ⑶ A stronger dollar limited oil price gains. ⑷ Continued production increases by major oil-producing countries offset the impact of Western sanctions against Russia; OPEC+ is inclined to moderately increase production in December. ⑸ Brent and WTI crude are expected to fall by about 3% in October, with supply growth continuing to outpace demand. ⑹ Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports hit a six-month high in August, while US production reached a record 13.6 million barrels per day.

16:15:32

The number of international tourists to Spain in September

Previous : 1737.26 Forecast : -

Published Value 1367.68

16:14:48

[French Inflation Slows More Than Expected in October] ⑴ French October consumer price index (CPI) rose slightly less than expected, as energy costs continued to decline and food price increases slowed. ⑵ The EU harmonized inflation rate rose 0.9% year-on-year, lower than September's 1.1% and market expectations of 1%. ⑶ Accelerated declines in energy prices were the main drag, with both natural gas and oil product costs falling. ⑷ Food inflation slowed, service prices maintained the same increase as in September, and the decline in manufactured goods prices widened slightly. ⑸ The October CPI rose slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, mainly driven by price increases in transportation services and other sectors. ⑹ Measured by the French domestic CPI, the October inflation rate was 1.0%, lower than September's 1.2%. ⑺ French inflation has been below the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% medium-term target for more than a year. ⑻ ECB policymakers are preparing for their December meeting, assessing the risks of inflation falling below the target. ⑼ The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday.

16:13:24

[Swiss Retail Sales in September Exceed Expectations] ⑴ Swiss retail sales in September 2025 increased by 1.5% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% increase. ⑵ This represents a significant improvement from the previously revised upward-revised 0.4% decline, with sales of information and communication equipment increasing by 19.9%. ⑶ Food, beverage, and tobacco sales increased by 1.3%, while non-food product sales increased by 2.5%. ⑷ Online and mail-order sales increased by 3.5%, and the decline in cultural and recreational goods narrowed to 1.4%. ⑸ Gas station sales decreased by 0.5%, and sales of home appliances and furniture decreased by 0.3%. ⑹ After seasonal adjustment, retail sales in September increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and retail activity excluding fuel increased by 2% year-on-year.

16:12:28

[Stallion Weakens: Downgraded UK Productivity Forecasts Raise Tax Hike Risk] ⑴ The pound continued to weaken against major currencies on Friday (October 31). The pound performed poorly this week as investors worried that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves might face a political backlash in the budget to be announced in late November due to escalating fiscal risks. ⑵ The UK Office for Budget Responsibility recently predicted that overall productivity in the country may decline by 0.3%, a scenario expected to widen the budget deficit to £21 billion by the 2029-2030 fiscal year. ⑶ This situation has exacerbated market concerns that Chancellor Reeves may be forced to break self-imposed fiscal rules, potentially further weakening household confidence. Analysis suggests that the government already faces a £22 billion funding gap, which can only be filled by increasing borrowing or raising worker taxes. ⑷ Choosing either a single or combined solution would result in the Chancellor reneging on her explicit promises – the Labour Party pledged in its election manifesto not to increase income tax, National Insurance tax, or worker VAT, and explicitly stated that it would not rely on borrowing to maintain daily public spending.

16:12:15

Turkish Finance Minister: The temporary deterioration in inflation expectations will present a different picture next year.

22

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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument	Current Price	Change
XAU	3997.41	-3.75 (-0.09%)
XAG	47.961	-0.098 (-0.20%)
CONC	60.15	-0.90 (-1.47%)
OILC	64.00	-0.81 (-1.26%)
USD	99.923	0.059 (0.06%)
EURUSD	1.1512	-0.0007 (-0.06%)
GBPUSD	1.3071	-0.0069 (-0.52%)
USDCNH	7.1253	0.0009 (0.01%)

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