2026-11-04 Wednesday
2026-11-06
12:25:49
[Analyst: Gold Under Short-Term Pressure, Midterm Election Results a Key Variable] 1. Philip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva stated that investors are cautiously assessing the progress of the US midterm elections. Spot gold is under pressure, having fallen below $3,900 per ounce in the past few trading days before recovering slightly. 2. She believes the key question is whether the election results will be enough to change the overall macroeconomic environment and drive a reversal in gold prices, or simply add new uncertainty to an already volatile market. While the decline in oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns to some extent, persistently high US Treasury yields, a relatively strong dollar, and market expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve are still limiting a rebound in gold prices. 3. She stated that against the backdrop of a generally weak market environment, as the midterm election results become clearer, some investors may gradually enter the market and form a stronger buying position; before that, many investors may still prefer to wait and see, waiting for a clearer picture of US Treasury yields, the dollar's trajectory, and risk sentiment before investing new funds.
12:14:39
[US Media Predictions: Democrats to Swap Five Seats and Approach Senate Majority, Kansas Upset] 1. Decision Desk (DDHQ), an election prediction organization, predicts that Democrat Adam Hamilton will win the U.S. Senate seat in Kansas, becoming the first Democrat to be elected from the state since 1932. He defeated Republican Senator Roger Marshall by capitalizing on voter discontent over Trump's tariff policies and the fuel price hikes caused by the Iran war. 2. Preliminary vote counts show Hamilton leading 53% to 44% with 84% of the votes counted. DDHQ has declared him the winner, but other television media outlets have not yet made predictions. 3. According to predictions from DDHQ and several other media outlets, Democrats have already swapped five Senate seats in the election, from North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, and South Carolina. Democrats only needed a net gain of four seats to control the Senate, provided they did not lose any existing seats in other states.
11:58:13
[my country to Build Approximately 15,000 Kilometers of Railways During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Reporters learned from a press conference held by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on the theme of "Striving for the 15th Five-Year Plan" that my country will build approximately 15,000 kilometers of railways during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, including about 10,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, basically achieving the goal of railway modernization. Xia Xin, Director of the Infrastructure Development Department of the NDRC, stated that the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail main corridors will be basically completed. High-speed rail will primarily serve passenger transport, with a reasonable expansion of regional connecting lines. The construction and operation of 400 km/h high-speed rail will be accelerated, along with the steady promotion of commercial operation. Construction of conventional railways will be strengthened, and the capacity expansion and upgrading of busy trunk lines will be accelerated, essentially eliminating capacity bottlenecks in trunk lines. A specialized railway freight network will be built, the scope of container train services will be expanded, and the operation of 200 km/h railway freight trains will be steadily promoted as needed. The goal is to add 220 million tons of freight volume during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. (CCTV News)
11:14:02
[Malaysian industry calls for temporary exemption of CPO export tax to cope with low-price competition and high inventory from Indonesia] (1) According to foreign media reports, as independent crushing plants struggle to clear their inventory, industry insiders are urging the government to temporarily suspend the 10% CPO export tax, arguing that the tax further weakens Malaysia's competitiveness relative to cheaper Indonesian supplies. (2) According to industry estimates, Indonesian CPO is 700 to 900 ringgit cheaper per ton than Malaysian CPO. (3) Malaysia imposes a tiered export tax of 3% to 10% on CPO priced above 2,250 ringgit per ton; when the price exceeds 4,050 ringgit per ton, the highest tax rate of 10% applies. In November, based on a reference price of 4,323.78 ringgit per ton, the export tax remained at 10%. (4) Industry insiders believe that a temporary exemption could narrow the price gap, making Malaysian CPO more attractive to overseas buyers and helping to reduce domestic inventory. (5) They also questioned why Malaysia continued to import palm oil despite record domestic inventories; MPOB data shows that the country imported a total of 107,588 tons of palm oil in August and September. (6) It is understood that the Malaysian Palm Oil Refiners Association (Poram) has been lobbying the Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities to temporarily suspend export taxes.
11:13:34
[US stock index futures fall as bets on a Democratic victory in the midterm elections intensify, putting pressure on AI infrastructure and tech stocks] (1) US stock index futures fell as the market bets that the Democratic Party will win a majority of seats in Congress and some key state gubernatorial elections in the 2026 US midterm elections. (2) S&P 500 futures fell 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.7%. (3) Kalshi platform data shows that the probability of the Democratic Party controlling the Senate has risen to over 90%, indicating that traders are increasingly inclined to bet on a major victory for the Democratic Party in this election. (4) Some on Wall Street believe that if the Democratic Party gains a significant advantage in the Senate, the market may face pressure, especially for stocks related to artificial intelligence infrastructure construction. (5) In after-hours trading, major tech stocks Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia all fell; CoreWeave, considered a high-risk data center concept stock, fell 6% in Robinhood overnight trading. (6) SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, saw its stock price fall 4% on the Robinhood platform.
11:09:30
[White House official says White House sentiment is "tough and unyielding," emphasizes Trump is not on the ballot] (1) As election results are gradually released, with Democrats expected to win control of the House of Representatives, a White House official told ABC News that the White House sentiment is "tough and unyielding." (2) For weeks, President Donald Trump has been urging voters to pretend he is also on the ballot; now, this White House official emphasizes that Trump is not actually on the ballot. (3) When asked how he would respond to the results so far that night, the official said, "President Trump is not on the ballot, and it turns out that when he is on the ballot, Trump's voters come out to vote." (4) The official added, "Furthermore, the quality of the candidates is important, and President Trump has done a better job of promoting many of the candidates on the ballot than those candidates themselves."
11:08:34
[Exit Polls: High Prices Drag Down Trump, Republican Voter Alliance Shows Signs of Weakening] 1. Americans voted in the midterm elections on Tuesday, deciding who will control Congress for the final two years of Trump's term. Exit polls show voters are dissatisfied with Trump and his policy agenda, blaming him for high prices. A majority of voters believe the US is headed in the wrong direction, and many say their situation is worse than two years ago. 2. The exit polls were conducted by SSRS on behalf of a consortium of US media outlets, including major television news networks and the Associated Press. Nearly 90% of respondents cited the cost of living as a key or major factor influencing their votes, nearly two-thirds blamed Trump for high prices, and about three-quarters expressed anger or dissatisfaction with the country's direction, indicating a desire for change and concerns about government corruption. 3. Trump promised to quickly address high inflation when he took office, but most voters believe his policies, such as the war with Iran and tariffs on foreign goods, have worsened the economic situation. The exit polls also show that Trump's recent intensive campaigning for Republican candidates in 19 states has had little effect on boosting his support. 4. The voter coalition that helped Trump win the 2024 election is showing initial signs of fragmentation. Exit polls show a significant decline in Republican support among Black men, Latinos, young voters, evangelical Christians, and voters without a college degree. If the data is confirmed, the proportion of voters who supported Harris in 2024 may be higher than in this election. 5. Voters aged 65 and older may help limit Republican losses; this group is slightly Republican and represents a larger percentage of voters in this midterm election than in 2024. However, declining support among key groups could drag down the party before the 2028 election and pose a challenge for Republican presidential candidates in rebuilding their voter coalition.
11:05:56
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): Latest data as of November 4, 2026 shows a decrease in rates across eight periods. The overnight SHIBOR was 1.265%, down 2.41 basis points. The largest change was in the 2-week RMB SHIBOR, down 2.5 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and changes over the past ten working days, please refer to the chart created by FX678). Other periods show: 1-week SHIBOR at 1.329%, down 1.3 basis points; 2-week SHIBOR at 1.343%, down 2.5 basis points; 1-month SHIBOR at 1.38%, down 0.03 basis points; 3-month SHIBOR at 1.4%, down 0.15 basis points; 6-month SHIBOR at 1.419%, down 0.1 basis points; and 9-month SHIBOR at 1.429%, down 0.09 basis points. The one-year Shibor rate was 1.437%, down 0.2 basis points.
11:03:28
[Democrats Expected to Take Full Control of Congress, Copper Prices Fall for Second Consecutive Day and Break Below $14,000/ton] (1) Preliminary results of the US midterm elections indicate that the Democratic Party is expected to take full control of Congress, causing the stock market to fall and copper prices to decline for the second consecutive trading day. (2) Copper is widely used in data centers and power transmission; in recent weeks, market concerns about artificial intelligence spending have put pressure on copper prices. (3) On Tuesday, copper prices fell below $14,000 per ton for the first time since September, facing the risk of breaking out of the trading range that has been roughly maintained over the past two months. (4) Analysts say that traders tend to be slightly risk-averse before the midterm election results are announced; copper prices have been catching up in recent weeks, and the future trend will largely depend on the future performance of the US stock market. (5) The preliminary results of the midterm elections clearly favor the Democratic Party, which means that the possibility of a political deadlock in Washington has increased; if high-growth sectors of the economy face more regulatory scrutiny, it may be a negative factor for the stock market and the US dollar. (6) However, a weaker US dollar is usually beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars.
11:02:14
[China Gold Association: Overseas Mine Capacity of Major Gold Groups Continued to Release in an Orderly Manner in the First Three Quarters] In the first three quarters of 2026, the overseas mine capacity of major gold groups continued to release in an orderly manner, becoming an important support for offsetting the contraction of domestic capacity. China Gold's two subsidiaries in Kyrgyzstan, Kechi-Charat and China-Kyrgyzstan Mining, won the annual China-Kyrgyzstan Cooperation Award for their strong local operations and contributions to social responsibility. Shandong Gold's Namutini Gold Mine in Ghana optimized the entire mining, stripping, and beneficiation process, simultaneously increasing the scale of mining and beneficiation and the recovery rate, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in gold production. Zijin Mining's Akim Gold Mine in Ghana and Rigodo Gold Mine in Kazakhstan, among other incremental projects, continued to release capacity. Shandong Zhaojin's Abuja Gold Mine in Côte d'Ivoire, through optimizing its production and operation model, streamlining production processes, and improving the efficiency of mining and beneficiation operations, continued to demonstrate its supporting role in capacity. Major gold groups' overseas mines produced 71.126 tons of gold, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%.
11:00:48
According to the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2026, the total trading volume of all gold products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 25,400 tons (50,800 tons bilaterally), an increase of 6.75% year-on-year; the total trading value reached RMB 25.22 trillion (RMB 50.45 trillion bilaterally), an increase of 42.69% year-on-year. The total trading volume of all gold futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 94,100 tons (188,100 tons bilaterally), a decrease of 9.22% year-on-year; the total trading value reached RMB 67.77 trillion (RMB 135.53 trillion bilaterally), an increase of 10.95% year-on-year.
11:00:28
According to the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2026, domestic gold production from raw materials totaled 220.935 tons, a decrease of 50.847 tons, or 18.71%, year-on-year; while gold production from imported raw materials totaled 127.055 tons, an increase of 5.906 tons, or 4.87%, year-on-year. Combined, domestic and imported raw materials produced a total of 347.990 tons of gold, a decrease of 44.941 tons, or 11.44%, year-on-year.
10:54:45
【US Crude Oil: Range-bound trading, buy on dips, sell on rallies】 (1) Reasons for analysis: The US-Iran negotiations continue, geopolitical risks are repeatedly at play, and there is no substantial agreement yet. WTI has been trending lower for two consecutive days, and the overall decline this week is still significant. The decline in the US dollar has provided some support. The market is waiting for the EIA inventory data to guide supply and demand. Technically, it has entered a range-bound trading pattern, waiting for a directional choice. (2) Key focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index (3) Resistance: 96.80, 99.00, 100.00 (4) Support: 94.80, 94.00, 93.00
10:45:56
[National Development and Reform Commission: 400 km/h High-Speed Railway to Steadily Advance Commercial Operation] On November 4th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) held a series of press conferences on advancing the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, introducing relevant information on strengthening development support. Xia Xin, Director of the Infrastructure Development Department of the NDRC, stated that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, my country will construct approximately 15,000 kilometers of new railways, including approximately 10,000 kilometers of high-speed railways, basically achieving the goal of railway modernization. Key tasks include: The basic completion of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed railway main corridors, with high-speed railways primarily for passenger transport, and a reasonable expansion of regional connecting lines. Accelerating the construction and operation of a complete set of technologies and standards for 400 km/h high-speed railways, and steadily advancing commercial operation. Strengthening the construction of conventional railways, accelerating the capacity expansion and transformation of busy trunk lines, and basically eliminating capacity bottlenecks in trunk line corridors. Building a specialized railway freight network, optimizing the functional layout of national railway logistics bases, expanding the scope of container train operations, and steadily promoting the operation of 200 km/h railways for freight trains as needed, striving to add 220 million tons of freight volume during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Major projects... The high-standard high-speed railway along the Yangtze River will be fully completed, the construction of the coastal high-speed railway will be accelerated, the construction of border railways will be steadily promoted, the Xinjiang coal transportation system will be expedited, and preliminary work on projects such as the Qinhuangdao-Shenyang Second Corridor will be advanced. (National Development and Reform Commission)
10:36:00
[EU Responds to Bomb Threats to Passenger Planes from Multiple Countries: Closely Monitoring the Situation, Unsure if Incidents are Related] (1) Regarding the bomb threats received by passenger planes from multiple European countries, a spokesperson for the European Commission told Xinhua News Agency on the 3rd that the EU is closely monitoring the situation and maintaining contact with the affected member states; the European Aviation Safety Agency has also participated in the relevant work. (2) In reply to an email from Xinhua News Agency, the spokesperson stated that any threat against civilians is unacceptable, and ensuring the safety of the public is always a priority. (3) Poland, Spain, Bulgaria, and Italy reported bomb threats to passenger planes on the 3rd, involving 7 aircraft. Some flights were diverted and airports were temporarily closed; currently, no explosives have been found on many of the aircraft after inspection. (4) The spokesperson for the European Commission stated that the investigations in each country are still ongoing, and it is not yet possible to determine whether the reported incidents are related.
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